Perkilator
Smash Legend
Abstain.
Andy: 30%
Ashely: 5%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3
Andy: 30%
Ashely: 5%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3
-
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
Abstain
Noms go to Off The Hook
Andy: 15%
Ashley: 3%
Noms go to Off The Hook
Andy: 15%
Ashley: 3%
Sakura Shinguji
Literally nothing has changed with Sakura since January so I'm just going to quote my last rating of her (and lower the score a bit since we've gotten two characters since then).
TL;DR Yes she is super popular in Japan, but her series flopping hard in the West (as well as the 2019/2020 reboot coming in too late to even matter) makes me doubt that she would happen as a DLC pick.
Axel
Chance: 3%
The Streets of Rage series does have some reputation as one of the definitive beat 'em up games. It's also done well overseas which is one advantage Axel has over Sakura. If Sakurai decides to go for a Terry-ish legacy pick to represent the beat 'em up genre then I can see Axel happening.
The main issue for Axel is Sega competition. Right now I think the main Sega frontrunners are Arle and another Sonic character. Puyo Puyo has been getting pushed a lot by Sega over the past several years. Meanwhile, Sonic is super well-known and would be an easy way to sell a character. Both of those characters I feel have the advantage over Axel, especially since SoR was dormant since 1994 up until SoR4 released last year. I do think SoR4 does help Axel's case a bit for the future, but it released too late to really matter for FP2.
Want: 100%
Axel is definitely my most wanted Sega character. The Streets of Rage games are easily my favorite beat 'em up series as they are a blast to play and have an amazing soundtrack. The first 3 games are all $1 each on Steam so if you haven't played them then go do so now.
There's a lot of fun characters to use in the SoR games but I think Axel would be the best choice to represent the series. He's a fun, solid character that represents the whole street brawler theme well.
-----
Chance predictions:
Andy: 15%
Ashley: 4%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x20
Literally nothing has changed with Sakura since January so I'm just going to quote my last rating of her (and lower the score a bit since we've gotten two characters since then).
TL;DR Yes she is super popular in Japan, but her series flopping hard in the West (as well as the 2019/2020 reboot coming in too late to even matter) makes me doubt that she would happen as a DLC pick.
-----
Axel
Chance: 3%
The Streets of Rage series does have some reputation as one of the definitive beat 'em up games. It's also done well overseas which is one advantage Axel has over Sakura. If Sakurai decides to go for a Terry-ish legacy pick to represent the beat 'em up genre then I can see Axel happening.
The main issue for Axel is Sega competition. Right now I think the main Sega frontrunners are Arle and another Sonic character. Puyo Puyo has been getting pushed a lot by Sega over the past several years. Meanwhile, Sonic is super well-known and would be an easy way to sell a character. Both of those characters I feel have the advantage over Axel, especially since SoR was dormant since 1994 up until SoR4 released last year. I do think SoR4 does help Axel's case a bit for the future, but it released too late to really matter for FP2.
Want: 100%
Axel is definitely my most wanted Sega character. The Streets of Rage games are easily my favorite beat 'em up series as they are a blast to play and have an amazing soundtrack. The first 3 games are all $1 each on Steam so if you haven't played them then go do so now.
There's a lot of fun characters to use in the SoR games but I think Axel would be the best choice to represent the series. He's a fun, solid character that represents the whole street brawler theme well.
-----
Chance predictions:
Andy: 15%
Ashley: 4%
Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x20
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,219
Sakura
Chance: 1% - I don't have any confidence in her at all. Her series has remained completely unlocalized aside from two games and has made absolutely no splash in the West, even with the PS4 game. This isn't the days of Fire Emblem in Melee anymore, Smash is international, and even if there's favor shown towards Japan, Sakurai has kept out plenty of characters hes considered due to being too obscure in the West. And unlike other heavily Japan-weighted series like Taiko no Tatsujin or Puyo Puyo, Sakura's modern break into the Western market wasn't exactly successful, unlike the former two, who both recieved more localized games (on Nintendo systems no less) and became much more well known. Still niche but MUCH more present! Sakura doesn't have that luxury, I didn't even know the PS4 game was a thing until about a year ago. Speaking of Puyo, competition within SEGA flies in Sakura's face. Alongside from everyone's favorite cute magician girl and her equally-adorable pet, there's also franchises like Super Monkey Ball, Shin Megami Tensei, Streets of Rage, and several others who have all gotten or ar getting stuff in the near future, and all of which are getting a lot of promotion. Alongside that, Sonic the Hedgehog always remains to be a marketing juggernaut, so a certain doctor could easily swoop in and swipe her spot (and her mechs, too!). One of them could easily be chosen over Sakura. Really, aside from popularity, nothing's really going in Sakura's favor.
Want: 0% - If this weren't the final character it'd be a little higher, but for right now I can't see any reason to want her in Smash. She remains almost completely confined to one country, and hasn't really made any kind of splash in gaming history. People often cite her as big and important (her fans have also really turned me off from the character), but the whole "make a dialogue choice within a time limit" concept didn't become more widespread because of Sakura Wars, it became widespread because of Mass Effect. And, they came up with that concept on their own, it's a pretty broad idea anyway. And for those who are still convinced that Sakura Wars had to be the origin, then here's an article I want you to read. Alongside that, while the idea of mechs sounds cool, I don't know how much implementation the Smash team would do for them, likely restricting it to her final Smash, and thus resulting in her being just a boring swordfighter. The Smash team hasn't exactly been the most faithful (aside from Steve) or interesting with its' movesets during this pass, so I'd definitely expect this trend to continue.
Furthermore, there's other reasons. JRPG fatigue continues to hit hard and I'm sick of seeing the genre get constant red carpet treatment, and Sakura Wars' other genre, visual novel, is one I find extremely un-engaging for the most part unless done VERY well, and if I were to pick a VN character I'd pick Phoenix Wright instead, one of my most wanted. There's also other SEGA characters I'd much rather see, like Dr. Eggman (or a second Sonic rep in general), Arle Nadja (or any Puyo rep like Amitie, Ringo, or Tee), and Aiai, whose games I've actually played and like much better, and after Joker and Bayonetta a more cartoony SEGA character would help round things out more alongside Sonic himself (while someone like Sakura, Nahobino, Phantasy Star, etc would make him feel out of place within his own company's reps). So competition is a huge issue. Granted, I DO like the aspect of carrying progress between games (ala Paradox "mega campaigns" between Imperator Rome>Crusader Kings>Europa Universalis>Victoria>Hearts of Iron, you get the idea), I'm an absolute sucker for continuity! But there's just way too many things piling up that would make me dislike Sakura's inclusion.
Axel Stone
Chance: 5% - Speaking of SEGA competition that got a recent revival, here's Axel Stone! While I don't think he's that likely (not every Smash pick needs to revitalize an old IP), He's definitely got plenty going in his favor as well. His trilogy of games were standouts in the Beat Em' Up genre in the 90's, and Streets of Rage 4 last year led to a successful revival of the franchise, and it was surprisingly successful. So SEGA could've suggested Axel to help promote the regrowing franchise, and Sakurai would definitely see appeal in the historical value of Axel Stone. Though at the same time, this recency could come back to bite him. This revival and subsequent success happened last year, more than too late for consideration for the second pass, and unless SEGA had background plans for the franchise they wouldn't have know how successful it would be. Plus characters that had their hype come way too late have had that come back to bite them, as evidenced by our previous Mii Costume wave. There's also plenty of competition within SEGA to worry about (though fellow SEGA beat-em-up character Kiryu was deconfirmed, so that's a big plus for him, and he doesn't have the same issues of lopsided popularity that Arle does). So while I don't think Axel will happen, I do think he's worth keeping an eye on. SEGA is due to get a character after all!
Want: 30% - Would overall be pretty neutral on Axel. I've never played his games, and like with Sakura there's other SEGA characters I'd much rather see. But at the same time I definitely see what he brings to the table. We don't have a beat-em-up character yet (our sole representation is Kunio-kun/River City spirits) and I am interested in seeing how they implement that as a Smash moveset. Plus the fourth game got released on the Switch, so Nintendo representation is a huge plus in my eyes. He also does remind me a lot of Terry, who I was initially neutral towards but grew on me quickly. So while I'd definitely pick a different character to be the last one myself, I wouldn't really have any qualms if Axel got the spot.
Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xHalf
DJ Octavio xHalf
Predictions:
Andy - 10.48% -Shiny New Game effect is definitely gonna work in Andy's favor for ratings, but at the same time his revival, which was outsourced, along with coming super late, might not inspire confidence.
Ashley - 3.27% - Expecting some confident votes from her fans, and others who see her as a potential shill rep, but overall her status as an assist trophy is going to hold her back.
Chance: 1% - I don't have any confidence in her at all. Her series has remained completely unlocalized aside from two games and has made absolutely no splash in the West, even with the PS4 game. This isn't the days of Fire Emblem in Melee anymore, Smash is international, and even if there's favor shown towards Japan, Sakurai has kept out plenty of characters hes considered due to being too obscure in the West. And unlike other heavily Japan-weighted series like Taiko no Tatsujin or Puyo Puyo, Sakura's modern break into the Western market wasn't exactly successful, unlike the former two, who both recieved more localized games (on Nintendo systems no less) and became much more well known. Still niche but MUCH more present! Sakura doesn't have that luxury, I didn't even know the PS4 game was a thing until about a year ago. Speaking of Puyo, competition within SEGA flies in Sakura's face. Alongside from everyone's favorite cute magician girl and her equally-adorable pet, there's also franchises like Super Monkey Ball, Shin Megami Tensei, Streets of Rage, and several others who have all gotten or ar getting stuff in the near future, and all of which are getting a lot of promotion. Alongside that, Sonic the Hedgehog always remains to be a marketing juggernaut, so a certain doctor could easily swoop in and swipe her spot (and her mechs, too!). One of them could easily be chosen over Sakura. Really, aside from popularity, nothing's really going in Sakura's favor.
Want: 0% - If this weren't the final character it'd be a little higher, but for right now I can't see any reason to want her in Smash. She remains almost completely confined to one country, and hasn't really made any kind of splash in gaming history. People often cite her as big and important (her fans have also really turned me off from the character), but the whole "make a dialogue choice within a time limit" concept didn't become more widespread because of Sakura Wars, it became widespread because of Mass Effect. And, they came up with that concept on their own, it's a pretty broad idea anyway. And for those who are still convinced that Sakura Wars had to be the origin, then here's an article I want you to read. Alongside that, while the idea of mechs sounds cool, I don't know how much implementation the Smash team would do for them, likely restricting it to her final Smash, and thus resulting in her being just a boring swordfighter. The Smash team hasn't exactly been the most faithful (aside from Steve) or interesting with its' movesets during this pass, so I'd definitely expect this trend to continue.
Furthermore, there's other reasons. JRPG fatigue continues to hit hard and I'm sick of seeing the genre get constant red carpet treatment, and Sakura Wars' other genre, visual novel, is one I find extremely un-engaging for the most part unless done VERY well, and if I were to pick a VN character I'd pick Phoenix Wright instead, one of my most wanted. There's also other SEGA characters I'd much rather see, like Dr. Eggman (or a second Sonic rep in general), Arle Nadja (or any Puyo rep like Amitie, Ringo, or Tee), and Aiai, whose games I've actually played and like much better, and after Joker and Bayonetta a more cartoony SEGA character would help round things out more alongside Sonic himself (while someone like Sakura, Nahobino, Phantasy Star, etc would make him feel out of place within his own company's reps). So competition is a huge issue. Granted, I DO like the aspect of carrying progress between games (ala Paradox "mega campaigns" between Imperator Rome>Crusader Kings>Europa Universalis>Victoria>Hearts of Iron, you get the idea), I'm an absolute sucker for continuity! But there's just way too many things piling up that would make me dislike Sakura's inclusion.
Axel Stone
Chance: 5% - Speaking of SEGA competition that got a recent revival, here's Axel Stone! While I don't think he's that likely (not every Smash pick needs to revitalize an old IP), He's definitely got plenty going in his favor as well. His trilogy of games were standouts in the Beat Em' Up genre in the 90's, and Streets of Rage 4 last year led to a successful revival of the franchise, and it was surprisingly successful. So SEGA could've suggested Axel to help promote the regrowing franchise, and Sakurai would definitely see appeal in the historical value of Axel Stone. Though at the same time, this recency could come back to bite him. This revival and subsequent success happened last year, more than too late for consideration for the second pass, and unless SEGA had background plans for the franchise they wouldn't have know how successful it would be. Plus characters that had their hype come way too late have had that come back to bite them, as evidenced by our previous Mii Costume wave. There's also plenty of competition within SEGA to worry about (though fellow SEGA beat-em-up character Kiryu was deconfirmed, so that's a big plus for him, and he doesn't have the same issues of lopsided popularity that Arle does). So while I don't think Axel will happen, I do think he's worth keeping an eye on. SEGA is due to get a character after all!
Want: 30% - Would overall be pretty neutral on Axel. I've never played his games, and like with Sakura there's other SEGA characters I'd much rather see. But at the same time I definitely see what he brings to the table. We don't have a beat-em-up character yet (our sole representation is Kunio-kun/River City spirits) and I am interested in seeing how they implement that as a Smash moveset. Plus the fourth game got released on the Switch, so Nintendo representation is a huge plus in my eyes. He also does remind me a lot of Terry, who I was initially neutral towards but grew on me quickly. So while I'd definitely pick a different character to be the last one myself, I wouldn't really have any qualms if Axel got the spot.
Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xHalf
DJ Octavio xHalf
Predictions:
Andy - 10.48% -Shiny New Game effect is definitely gonna work in Andy's favor for ratings, but at the same time his revival, which was outsourced, along with coming super late, might not inspire confidence.
Ashley - 3.27% - Expecting some confident votes from her fans, and others who see her as a potential shill rep, but overall her status as an assist trophy is going to hold her back.
Last edited:
BowserKing
Smash Lord
Sakura
Chance: 10%. Her chance did not change much, but her popularity in Japan could help. She could also be a Mii Costume.
Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as and would be unique among the Smash Roaster. Overalll, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep, perhaps even more.
Axel
Chance: 10%. His chance did not change much either. He could be a Mii Costume as well, or a spirit.
Want: 50%. He would be a fun fighter to play as and would be unique. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Prediction: Ashley (15%) and Andy (30%)
Noms: 15 for Boss: Rayquaza
Sorry for it being short.
Chance: 10%. Her chance did not change much, but her popularity in Japan could help. She could also be a Mii Costume.
Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as and would be unique among the Smash Roaster. Overalll, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep, perhaps even more.
Axel
Chance: 10%. His chance did not change much either. He could be a Mii Costume as well, or a spirit.
Want: 50%. He would be a fun fighter to play as and would be unique. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Prediction: Ashley (15%) and Andy (30%)
Noms: 15 for Boss: Rayquaza
Sorry for it being short.
Last edited:
2006ToyotaTacoma
Smash Journeyman
Sakura Shinguji
Chance: 1% I think Drifloon nailed it on the head when it comes to Sakura's chances: She is big in Japan, but is practically unknown in the West, with her recent localization's not alleviating that issue much. Not to mention Sakurai has shelved character choices due to a lack of notoreity overseas. Then there's the issue with SEGA competition, especially against Arle and an SMT protag. Overall, the odds seem extremely stacked against Sakura at this point.
Want: 50% I have no connection to the Sakura Wars franchise, so I'm not for or against Sakura as an inclusion in Smash. Her mech would make for good moveset potential, but overall there are still other characters I'd like to see from Sega, like Kiryu, Ichiban, Dr. Eggman, and....
Axel Stone
Chance: 10% Axel's in a far better position than Sakura right now: Relevant with a very recent release (that's still getting updates btw), is the face of arguably the most iconic beat-em-up series, and has Western appeal. The only issue he has is also SEGA competition, with SMT and Puyo Puyo both being definite contenders for the last spot.
Want: 80% Streets of Rage 4 is still in my backlog, and with Yakuza 5 done I definitely plan on giving it a shot next! I may not want him as much as some other characters, but he'd still be a pick I'd be happy to see.
Predictions:
Andy - 26%
Ashley - 12%
Chance: 1% I think Drifloon nailed it on the head when it comes to Sakura's chances: She is big in Japan, but is practically unknown in the West, with her recent localization's not alleviating that issue much. Not to mention Sakurai has shelved character choices due to a lack of notoreity overseas. Then there's the issue with SEGA competition, especially against Arle and an SMT protag. Overall, the odds seem extremely stacked against Sakura at this point.
Want: 50% I have no connection to the Sakura Wars franchise, so I'm not for or against Sakura as an inclusion in Smash. Her mech would make for good moveset potential, but overall there are still other characters I'd like to see from Sega, like Kiryu, Ichiban, Dr. Eggman, and....
Axel Stone
Chance: 10% Axel's in a far better position than Sakura right now: Relevant with a very recent release (that's still getting updates btw), is the face of arguably the most iconic beat-em-up series, and has Western appeal. The only issue he has is also SEGA competition, with SMT and Puyo Puyo both being definite contenders for the last spot.
Want: 80% Streets of Rage 4 is still in my backlog, and with Yakuza 5 done I definitely plan on giving it a shot next! I may not want him as much as some other characters, but he'd still be a pick I'd be happy to see.
Predictions:
Andy - 26%
Ashley - 12%
DaUsername
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 909
- Location
- In that corner over there
- NNID
- DaUsername
- Switch FC
- SW-1418-0536-1998
Abstain.
Andy prediction: 21%
Ashley prediction: 3%
Noms: DJ Octavio x5
Andy prediction: 21%
Ashley prediction: 3%
Noms: DJ Octavio x5
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
[Rerate] Louie x490
Octoling x468
Mii Costume: 2B x465
Pyramid Head x435
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x340
Junpei (Zero Escape) x333
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x325
Meat Boy x310
300 - 251
Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260
250 - 201
Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215
Giygas x205
[Rerate] Kiryu x205
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x205
200 - 151
Stage: Bowser's Castle x197
Boss: Rayquaza x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Echo (Bowser) x153
150 - 101
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Fulgore x137
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x110
Soma Cruz x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
100 - 51
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Eggman x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Off The Hook x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Sora x55
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x55
DJ Octavio x55
50 - 25
[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Lugia x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x25
Under 25
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1
Octoling x468
Mii Costume: 2B x465
Pyramid Head x435
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x340
Junpei (Zero Escape) x333
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x325
Meat Boy x310
300 - 251
Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260
250 - 201
Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215
Giygas x205
[Rerate] Kiryu x205
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x205
200 - 151
Stage: Bowser's Castle x197
Boss: Rayquaza x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Echo (Bowser) x153
150 - 101
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Fulgore x137
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x110
Soma Cruz x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
100 - 51
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Eggman x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Off The Hook x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Sora x55
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x55
DJ Octavio x55
50 - 25
[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Lugia x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x25
Under 25
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1
Octoling shoots through Mii Costume: 2B and into second place. Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku dances past Junpei and takes fifth place.
Kiryu and Bandana Dee (what a duo) brawl past 200 noms.
Echo (Bowser) claws 150 noms.
Soma Cruz dashes past 100 noms.
Sora, Off The Hook, DJ Octavio, and Destroy All Humans content all pass 50 noms.
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep reaches 25 noms.
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
Sakura
Chance: 1%
The series being popular in Japan is the biggest thing in her favour... and pretty much the only thing. Everywhere else, Sakura Wars is basically obscure with it having merely two of its titles localized. This could sound hypocritical coming from the guy who just gave Rayman a relatively high score, who's in a sorta similar situation just with the regions swapped but Sakura suffers more from nearly non-existant ties with Nintendo, competition from within her own company and the fact that despite the fact that the IP's so big in Japan, I've never seen much demand for her from Japanese fans. I honestly can't think of a reason why Nintendo would want her over someone like a Puyo Puyo rep. A series that I believe has an equal amount of Japanese popularity and actually made a splash in the west, as well as having the latest games release on the Switch as opposed to the SW reboot.
Want: 0%
I pretty much don't who she is and I can't really be bothered to check out her franchise, most of the games being unlocalized kinda does that. The reboot is also exclusive to a console I do not own and it hasn't set the world on fire anyway. Aside from that, she just looks bland. She's a shrine maiden with a katana, I don't see the appeal. We already got a katana wielder and a Anime girl back to back not long ago. Oh what, she has a mech I hear? Well, you know who else has a mech or dozen? Dr Ivo Robotnik/Eggman, a character infinitely more iconic and fun and based. Speaking of, yeah there are quite a few SEGA characters I would prefer like him, Arle, Beat, Kiryu and probably some others.
Abstaining on Axel
Andy: 11.46%
Ashley: 7.55%
Bandana Dee x10
Chance: 1%
The series being popular in Japan is the biggest thing in her favour... and pretty much the only thing. Everywhere else, Sakura Wars is basically obscure with it having merely two of its titles localized. This could sound hypocritical coming from the guy who just gave Rayman a relatively high score, who's in a sorta similar situation just with the regions swapped but Sakura suffers more from nearly non-existant ties with Nintendo, competition from within her own company and the fact that despite the fact that the IP's so big in Japan, I've never seen much demand for her from Japanese fans. I honestly can't think of a reason why Nintendo would want her over someone like a Puyo Puyo rep. A series that I believe has an equal amount of Japanese popularity and actually made a splash in the west, as well as having the latest games release on the Switch as opposed to the SW reboot.
Want: 0%
I pretty much don't who she is and I can't really be bothered to check out her franchise, most of the games being unlocalized kinda does that. The reboot is also exclusive to a console I do not own and it hasn't set the world on fire anyway. Aside from that, she just looks bland. She's a shrine maiden with a katana, I don't see the appeal. We already got a katana wielder and a Anime girl back to back not long ago. Oh what, she has a mech I hear? Well, you know who else has a mech or dozen? Dr Ivo Robotnik/Eggman, a character infinitely more iconic and fun and based. Speaking of, yeah there are quite a few SEGA characters I would prefer like him, Arle, Beat, Kiryu and probably some others.
Abstaining on Axel
Andy: 11.46%
Ashley: 7.55%
Bandana Dee x10
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,275
Abstain on both. I know nothing about either.
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Dude your knuckle's on fire, might wanna get that checked out
Chance: 5%
As mentioned on a recent day, Sega's in a particularly strong position to nab FP11. They're a company that's already involved in Smash, a highly cooperative one at that, who have gotten a fighter in every DLC cycle so far. Plus in the modern day, aside from the juggernaut that is Sonic, most of their franchises are modest AA titles in niche genres, meaning nearly all of their franchises make sense for the last spot. However this creates a competition issue, where not everyone can remain as likely as the rest of the pack.
Axel, I think, might not have as strong a shot as previously thought. Streets of Rage 4 is in a weird position where it came out too late to have its success taken into account for selection, but at the same time it came out too early to feel like the kind of game that would be promoted. SoR4 isn't exclusive either. There's also the fact that choices lean heavily towards the Japanese market (in which Sega has plenty of popular IP) and SoR has always leaned Western. If we take the fourth game out of the equation (since we have no way of knowing if Nintendo was even aware of its existence at the time of assembling the Pass) then we're left with a highly influencial and successful but dead franchise and I don't know if they'd go with that. Sakurai for sure but he's not at the helm right now.
Finally I'm splitting the series' chances between him and Blaze because they both feel like equal contenders to me.
Want: 100%
The Streets of Rage games are masterpieces. They're rad, they play great, some of the best videogame music out there, we'd be in for an absolute treat if they picked Axel.
And now it's time to rehash this old post for the third (hopefully final) time
Predictions: I'm gonna go high though it might be just wishful thinking
Andy 18.79%
Ashley 22.3%
Chance: 5%
As mentioned on a recent day, Sega's in a particularly strong position to nab FP11. They're a company that's already involved in Smash, a highly cooperative one at that, who have gotten a fighter in every DLC cycle so far. Plus in the modern day, aside from the juggernaut that is Sonic, most of their franchises are modest AA titles in niche genres, meaning nearly all of their franchises make sense for the last spot. However this creates a competition issue, where not everyone can remain as likely as the rest of the pack.
Axel, I think, might not have as strong a shot as previously thought. Streets of Rage 4 is in a weird position where it came out too late to have its success taken into account for selection, but at the same time it came out too early to feel like the kind of game that would be promoted. SoR4 isn't exclusive either. There's also the fact that choices lean heavily towards the Japanese market (in which Sega has plenty of popular IP) and SoR has always leaned Western. If we take the fourth game out of the equation (since we have no way of knowing if Nintendo was even aware of its existence at the time of assembling the Pass) then we're left with a highly influencial and successful but dead franchise and I don't know if they'd go with that. Sakurai for sure but he's not at the helm right now.
Finally I'm splitting the series' chances between him and Blaze because they both feel like equal contenders to me.
Want: 100%
The Streets of Rage games are masterpieces. They're rad, they play great, some of the best videogame music out there, we'd be in for an absolute treat if they picked Axel.
And now it's time to rehash this old post for the third (hopefully final) time
Noms: Octoling
Predictions: I'm gonna go high though it might be just wishful thinking
Andy 18.79%
Ashley 22.3%
Lionfranky
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Oct 4, 2019
- Messages
- 1,013
I think you can add Doom to series with lopsided region popularity. Halo has more recognition than Doom in Japan.
Day over.
Today is early 2000's first parties that start with the letter A and wear red day, so rate Andy from Advance Wars and Ashley from WarioWare.
Predict Waluigi and Isaac (Golden Sun).
Today is the final day before the top spots in the noms list are locked.
-----
Music for today:
Andy
Ashley
Since Ashley really just has her one theme (which is already in Smash), I'm just gonna post a bunch of my favorite WarioWare tracks.
Today is early 2000's first parties that start with the letter A and wear red day, so rate Andy from Advance Wars and Ashley from WarioWare.
Predict Waluigi and Isaac (Golden Sun).
Today is the final day before the top spots in the noms list are locked.
-----
Music for today:
Andy
Ashley
Since Ashley really just has her one theme (which is already in Smash), I'm just gonna post a bunch of my favorite WarioWare tracks.
Perkilator
Smash Legend
Abstain.
Waluigi: 50%
Isaac: 20%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x3
[Rerate] Sora x2
Waluigi: 50%
Isaac: 20%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x3
[Rerate] Sora x2
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- Mar 5, 2019
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- 2,370
You Will Know Her Name
Chance: 14%
Ashley I'd say is in a decent spot. WarioWare has consistently done well over the years and while it's not one of Nintendo's top series they do continue to support it. Other than that there are some things that put the series in a comfortable position. It has an upcoming game which always helps, it has only one rep with Wario and there is plenty of content missing, and Ashley herself has notable demand which can't be ignored. As for her being an assist trophy, I don't think that's a detriment either. I think the main reason why we haven't seen an assist trophy upgrade yet is because none of the choices have a particularly strong case for them. But when it comes to Ashley at this point I think she is one of the more viable assist trophies remaining. Her only real threat is competition from within the series but she probably has the best case out of the whole cast and ironically I think her assist trophy helps her out in that regard since it's an indicator of her popularity.
Want: 25%
It kind of hurts to give her this low of a score. I do like WarioWare but not enough to the point where I'm really interested in it getting another rep. I'm fine with the content that we already have and while I wouldn't be against Ashley I wouldn't be hyped for her either.
____________________________
These wars are so advanced they have god dam tanks
Chance: 5%
The fact that Advance Wars got brought back at all is a miracle and that has to say something for Andy's chances. I think the biggest benefit that Andy has is his demand. He is one of the most requested first party characters from what I've seen and Advance Wars even got an assist trophy in Brawl (Why didn't they bring that back anyway? That was awesome!). But even with a new shiny game I'm not ready to put all the cards on the Andy deck just yet. Apparently the remakes were not featured on the Japanese direct and last time I checked the remakes have not been announced for Japan yet. Maybe they will get released there eventually but this indicates little confidence from Nintendo and I do believe that if Andy was coming to Smash, they definitely would have shown the game in the direct to get their Japanese consumers interested and aware for when Andy gets announced for Smash. And to my knowledge the previous games didn't do that well in Japan. Honesty that almost kills this score, knowing how Smash tends to favor the Japanese demographic. I do think it's a surmountable obstacle especially with the high demand but I'm not holding my breath.
Want: 60%
Unfortunately I have not had the pleasure of trying out the games yet (I definitely will fix that this December!). But with that said Advance Wars looks real good and I know many people have been waiting for this to happen and I'm cheering for all of you! I always enjoy it when fan favorites make it in.
Predictions:
Waluigi - 25%
Isaac - 15%
Noms: Destroy All Humans content x20
Chance: 14%
Ashley I'd say is in a decent spot. WarioWare has consistently done well over the years and while it's not one of Nintendo's top series they do continue to support it. Other than that there are some things that put the series in a comfortable position. It has an upcoming game which always helps, it has only one rep with Wario and there is plenty of content missing, and Ashley herself has notable demand which can't be ignored. As for her being an assist trophy, I don't think that's a detriment either. I think the main reason why we haven't seen an assist trophy upgrade yet is because none of the choices have a particularly strong case for them. But when it comes to Ashley at this point I think she is one of the more viable assist trophies remaining. Her only real threat is competition from within the series but she probably has the best case out of the whole cast and ironically I think her assist trophy helps her out in that regard since it's an indicator of her popularity.
Want: 25%
It kind of hurts to give her this low of a score. I do like WarioWare but not enough to the point where I'm really interested in it getting another rep. I'm fine with the content that we already have and while I wouldn't be against Ashley I wouldn't be hyped for her either.
____________________________
These wars are so advanced they have god dam tanks
Chance: 5%
The fact that Advance Wars got brought back at all is a miracle and that has to say something for Andy's chances. I think the biggest benefit that Andy has is his demand. He is one of the most requested first party characters from what I've seen and Advance Wars even got an assist trophy in Brawl (Why didn't they bring that back anyway? That was awesome!). But even with a new shiny game I'm not ready to put all the cards on the Andy deck just yet. Apparently the remakes were not featured on the Japanese direct and last time I checked the remakes have not been announced for Japan yet. Maybe they will get released there eventually but this indicates little confidence from Nintendo and I do believe that if Andy was coming to Smash, they definitely would have shown the game in the direct to get their Japanese consumers interested and aware for when Andy gets announced for Smash. And to my knowledge the previous games didn't do that well in Japan. Honesty that almost kills this score, knowing how Smash tends to favor the Japanese demographic. I do think it's a surmountable obstacle especially with the high demand but I'm not holding my breath.
Want: 60%
Unfortunately I have not had the pleasure of trying out the games yet (I definitely will fix that this December!). But with that said Advance Wars looks real good and I know many people have been waiting for this to happen and I'm cheering for all of you! I always enjoy it when fan favorites make it in.
Predictions:
Waluigi - 25%
Isaac - 15%
Noms: Destroy All Humans content x20
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- Cull Hazard
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Abstain on both
Predirections:
Waluigi - 65%
Isaac - 30%
Noms: Fulgore x 5
(Worth noting is that while I want Ashley, I just don't think she has a ghost of a chance in itself for an AT Upgrade. I'm just not sure why I have enough of that feeling to make a coherent point. I got nothing for Andy).
Predirections:
Waluigi - 65%
Isaac - 30%
Noms: Fulgore x 5
(Worth noting is that while I want Ashley, I just don't think she has a ghost of a chance in itself for an AT Upgrade. I'm just not sure why I have enough of that feeling to make a coherent point. I got nothing for Andy).
Last edited:
2006ToyotaTacoma
Smash Journeyman
Andy
Chance: 8% Yes, yes I know Andy has a shiny new game coming out soon, but people have to remember that a new game/port/remaster/etc does not guarantee them a spot (MH, BD2, Astral Chain, Ring Fit, etc all prove this). Not only that, but his new game hasn't even been shown to Japanese audiences yet. You know, Nintendo's primary audience? It reeks in a lack of confidence in the game by Nintendo and stuff like that tells me Andy isn't getting in to advertise the new Advance Wars, and to me, that's probably the only way he's getting in as DLC.
Want: 50% I don't know much about Advance Wars as a franchise, and I don't know much about Andy at all, but from what I've seen he could definitely have some creative moveset potential should he get in.
Ashley
Chance: 2% WarioWare getting a shiny new game doesn't affect my outlook on Ashley's chances at all. My belief remains firm that Ashley isn't the last character. And it's not even a matter of her being an Assist Trophy, or competition amongst WarioWare characters. It's just I don't see Nintendo using the last spot to advertise a WarioWare game, which is the only way I see Ashley getting in (same way as Ashley).
Want: 25% Not only do I want to see a new franchise picked for the final slot, but there are other WarioWare characters I'd like to see. Thus I'm not to fond of Ashley potentially being the final fighter.
Predictions:
Waluigi: 25%
Isaac: 5%
Chance: 8% Yes, yes I know Andy has a shiny new game coming out soon, but people have to remember that a new game/port/remaster/etc does not guarantee them a spot (MH, BD2, Astral Chain, Ring Fit, etc all prove this). Not only that, but his new game hasn't even been shown to Japanese audiences yet. You know, Nintendo's primary audience? It reeks in a lack of confidence in the game by Nintendo and stuff like that tells me Andy isn't getting in to advertise the new Advance Wars, and to me, that's probably the only way he's getting in as DLC.
Want: 50% I don't know much about Advance Wars as a franchise, and I don't know much about Andy at all, but from what I've seen he could definitely have some creative moveset potential should he get in.
Ashley
Chance: 2% WarioWare getting a shiny new game doesn't affect my outlook on Ashley's chances at all. My belief remains firm that Ashley isn't the last character. And it's not even a matter of her being an Assist Trophy, or competition amongst WarioWare characters. It's just I don't see Nintendo using the last spot to advertise a WarioWare game, which is the only way I see Ashley getting in (same way as Ashley).
Want: 25% Not only do I want to see a new franchise picked for the final slot, but there are other WarioWare characters I'd like to see. Thus I'm not to fond of Ashley potentially being the final fighter.
Predictions:
Waluigi: 25%
Isaac: 5%
BowserKing
Smash Lord
Andy
Chance: 30%. With a new game coming out, Andy’s chances has increased quite a bit, and since spirits do not discomfirm, his chance is decent. But with only a single slot left, it is a challenge.
Want: 55%. The trailer at E3 convinced me that he would be fun fighter to play as, and I can see him fight Snake. Overall, he would make a decent smash bros rep.
Ashley
Chance: 15% She has a new game coming out, giving her an advantage. Also helping is that she is one of the most popular Warioware characters. But she is also an assist, so that could narrow her chances.
Want: 90%. She would totally be fun to play as, and I can see her face off against Wario, Bowser Jr and multiple others in a free for all. Overall, she will make a brilliant smash bros fighter.
Prediction: Waluigi (10%) and Issac (10%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia
Chance: 30%. With a new game coming out, Andy’s chances has increased quite a bit, and since spirits do not discomfirm, his chance is decent. But with only a single slot left, it is a challenge.
Want: 55%. The trailer at E3 convinced me that he would be fun fighter to play as, and I can see him fight Snake. Overall, he would make a decent smash bros rep.
Ashley
Chance: 15% She has a new game coming out, giving her an advantage. Also helping is that she is one of the most popular Warioware characters. But she is also an assist, so that could narrow her chances.
Want: 90%. She would totally be fun to play as, and I can see her face off against Wario, Bowser Jr and multiple others in a free for all. Overall, she will make a brilliant smash bros fighter.
Prediction: Waluigi (10%) and Issac (10%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Alright, no funny title for today, it's Serious Post Time™. I've been looking forward to today since things have taken a turn for the bright side for these two, and I have a lot to say.
I've been vocal about my prediction that the final character will be one with a promotional bent to them. It's by no means a lock, and I've given good scores to the likes of Layton, Rayman and Reimu who wouldn't fit the bill. But I'll admit my sights are mostly set on any game releasing on the Switch between Jan 2021 and early 2022 (let's say April? Something like that). As the last pair of Nintendo Directs have shown, there's a vast array of games that qualify, both first and third party, and in various genres and budgets (remember when it looked like it would just be No More Heroes and Bravely Default? Quite a turn this year's taken). All this to say, there's probably one character with promotional appeal for any scenario you can think of.
Today's two candidates are, I think, at the forefront of the "the last character is a promotional first party" scenario. I consider them, alongside Ayumi (whose name also begins with an A, interestingly enough!) a perfect encapsulation of the three routes this could go. Andy and Ayumi are both from historic and influential franchises dating back to the 80s, with their latest entries being two-games-in-one remakes developed by outside studios. They're only considered classics in one region, and went unreleased in the other. Basically, they're polar opposites in terms of appeal and promotional potential - as in, one appeals to the region the other would likely be seen as a shill pick in. So the question then becomes: in what part of the world does Nintendo's promotional purview lie? Would their priority be that a new game does well in its home region, or that the rest of the world - a larger market - gets to know something Japan is intimately familiar with? I don't think it's possible for us to know this now, if ever, but if one of them gets in it'll be interesting in sight on this, I'd say.
And then there's Ashley. If the other two are extremes then she's the safe middle ground. She's incredibly popular around the world. Her new game releases in September, likely the month that FP11 will be revealed (contrast to Ayumi, whose games released in April, and Andy, whose games will release in December, Ashley's the middle ground even in the release schedule!). Her game is developed in-house and was simultaneously announced for both regions. The main difference that I think makes her not a slam dunk, but which isn't necessarily a point against her either, is that she comes from an already represented franchise, whereas the other two hail from new ones. So if they want an unrepped franchise they would go for the other two, but if they don't mind having a fighter from a repped franchise (even one with two stages and plenty of Spirits) she's our girl. Precedent doesn't give us a straight answer, with our first party characters so far being two fighters from represented franchises and one from a new one.
The bottom line is I think Nintendo's bases are covered with the three I mentioned and I've a hunch that it'll be one of them for FP11. Bear in mind that, unlike my prediction for a promotional pick, this hunch isn't based on speculation so I wouldn't be surprised in the least if I'm mistaken. Just putting it out there to explain my ratings as they might appear high. With that said, let's get into specifics:
Guardians of the Crazy Galaxy
Chance: 23%
Ashley has more than just a new WarioWare game going for her. She was incredibly popular leading up to and during the Ultimate hype cycle. That is precisely the window in which you want your character to be popular for them to get reconsidered sooner rather than later. Ashley was used a lot in promotion for Nintendo products beyond just WarioWare so they clearly see her as a breakout character.
However the new game is not to be ignored. For one, it makes the WarioWare cast directly controllable within the microgames which certainly helps visibility and moveset potential (though granted, that applies to all the characters there). There's also that poll that went around before E3 that leaked the game in a roundabout way, and the fact itself that it was featured at E3 (and demoed on Treehouse). All that implies that they want this to be big, that's a lot of marketing muscle for a series many considered dormant a few months ago. Does that translate to a fighter in Smash? Maybe! But you can't deny it all lines up pretty neatly.
Want: 100%
Fist of the Orange Star
Chance: 27%
Andy hails from a series with several tiers of historical significance. The original Famicom Wars, released in 1988, is one of the earliest examples of a turn-based strategy game. The Game Boy Wars games, by Hudson, are considered classics and we're wildly popular in Japan. And then, of course, came the Advance Wars era, which are considered to be some of the finest games on their respective systems. This is all very Sakurai-ish, but it wasn't until now that it felt like Nintendo had a real strong reason to add him (beyond his demand, which is granted not bad but pales in comparison to other would-be "for the fans" picks). Advance Wars coming back was a real shocker. The fact that it's apparently Nintendo's big holiday title even moreso. I don't think it being outsourced matters, this is a big vote of confidence (if not an outright leap of faith). Would they stake even more - a Smash fighter - on the success of this frankly risky game? Can't say for sure, but what I am certain of is that FP11 won't be a safe pick, so I'm open to anything.
One thing I want to discuss is the question of whether Advance Wars is even getting a Japanese release. It's certainly an important question as a negative would kill his chances instantly. But I think the answer is that yes, of course it will. Nintendo's a Japanese company. They make games for a Japanese audience. Even with all of Advance Wars' woes over there, every game was released in Japan. I highly doubt they'll stop now. As for why it wasn't announced on the Japanese E3? Well, I watched it, and there were like 5 or so games on it that weren't on our stream and they were obviously more suited for that audience. We're talking Power Pro, Tokimeki Memorial, Crayon Shin-chan, I think Momotaro Densetsu and Robot Wars were there. These names may not mean much to you but they're juggernauts over there and make a ton more sense to feature than AW. So I don't take it as an indicator that Reboot Camp isn't planned for localization, I expect that it'll be simply announced later on like the FDC remakes (maybe even on the September Direct). Andy in Smash was always going to be a more Western centric play so as long as the game releases in Japan he's good.
Finally, the reasons why Andy is a bit higher than my scores for Ashley and Ayumi is that his moveset concept is easier to envision (resource-managing summoner, versus Ayumi who would need a lot of creative freedoms and Ashley who hasn't actually been seen doing much of combat), and he's the clear cut rep for his franchise both in importance and popularity (WarioWare could be repped by Mona or 9-Volt, and after Hero I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to go for the protagonist over Ayumi).
Want: 100%
Noms: Magolor
Isaac prediction: 7.94%
Waluigi prediction: 9.69%
I get the feeling that a lot of AT doom-and-gloom (plus the generalized FP11 pessimism) will severely affect the Camelot Duo
I've been vocal about my prediction that the final character will be one with a promotional bent to them. It's by no means a lock, and I've given good scores to the likes of Layton, Rayman and Reimu who wouldn't fit the bill. But I'll admit my sights are mostly set on any game releasing on the Switch between Jan 2021 and early 2022 (let's say April? Something like that). As the last pair of Nintendo Directs have shown, there's a vast array of games that qualify, both first and third party, and in various genres and budgets (remember when it looked like it would just be No More Heroes and Bravely Default? Quite a turn this year's taken). All this to say, there's probably one character with promotional appeal for any scenario you can think of.
Today's two candidates are, I think, at the forefront of the "the last character is a promotional first party" scenario. I consider them, alongside Ayumi (whose name also begins with an A, interestingly enough!) a perfect encapsulation of the three routes this could go. Andy and Ayumi are both from historic and influential franchises dating back to the 80s, with their latest entries being two-games-in-one remakes developed by outside studios. They're only considered classics in one region, and went unreleased in the other. Basically, they're polar opposites in terms of appeal and promotional potential - as in, one appeals to the region the other would likely be seen as a shill pick in. So the question then becomes: in what part of the world does Nintendo's promotional purview lie? Would their priority be that a new game does well in its home region, or that the rest of the world - a larger market - gets to know something Japan is intimately familiar with? I don't think it's possible for us to know this now, if ever, but if one of them gets in it'll be interesting in sight on this, I'd say.
And then there's Ashley. If the other two are extremes then she's the safe middle ground. She's incredibly popular around the world. Her new game releases in September, likely the month that FP11 will be revealed (contrast to Ayumi, whose games released in April, and Andy, whose games will release in December, Ashley's the middle ground even in the release schedule!). Her game is developed in-house and was simultaneously announced for both regions. The main difference that I think makes her not a slam dunk, but which isn't necessarily a point against her either, is that she comes from an already represented franchise, whereas the other two hail from new ones. So if they want an unrepped franchise they would go for the other two, but if they don't mind having a fighter from a repped franchise (even one with two stages and plenty of Spirits) she's our girl. Precedent doesn't give us a straight answer, with our first party characters so far being two fighters from represented franchises and one from a new one.
The bottom line is I think Nintendo's bases are covered with the three I mentioned and I've a hunch that it'll be one of them for FP11. Bear in mind that, unlike my prediction for a promotional pick, this hunch isn't based on speculation so I wouldn't be surprised in the least if I'm mistaken. Just putting it out there to explain my ratings as they might appear high. With that said, let's get into specifics:
Guardians of the Crazy Galaxy
Chance: 23%
Ashley has more than just a new WarioWare game going for her. She was incredibly popular leading up to and during the Ultimate hype cycle. That is precisely the window in which you want your character to be popular for them to get reconsidered sooner rather than later. Ashley was used a lot in promotion for Nintendo products beyond just WarioWare so they clearly see her as a breakout character.
However the new game is not to be ignored. For one, it makes the WarioWare cast directly controllable within the microgames which certainly helps visibility and moveset potential (though granted, that applies to all the characters there). There's also that poll that went around before E3 that leaked the game in a roundabout way, and the fact itself that it was featured at E3 (and demoed on Treehouse). All that implies that they want this to be big, that's a lot of marketing muscle for a series many considered dormant a few months ago. Does that translate to a fighter in Smash? Maybe! But you can't deny it all lines up pretty neatly.
Want: 100%
Fist of the Orange Star
Chance: 27%
Andy hails from a series with several tiers of historical significance. The original Famicom Wars, released in 1988, is one of the earliest examples of a turn-based strategy game. The Game Boy Wars games, by Hudson, are considered classics and we're wildly popular in Japan. And then, of course, came the Advance Wars era, which are considered to be some of the finest games on their respective systems. This is all very Sakurai-ish, but it wasn't until now that it felt like Nintendo had a real strong reason to add him (beyond his demand, which is granted not bad but pales in comparison to other would-be "for the fans" picks). Advance Wars coming back was a real shocker. The fact that it's apparently Nintendo's big holiday title even moreso. I don't think it being outsourced matters, this is a big vote of confidence (if not an outright leap of faith). Would they stake even more - a Smash fighter - on the success of this frankly risky game? Can't say for sure, but what I am certain of is that FP11 won't be a safe pick, so I'm open to anything.
One thing I want to discuss is the question of whether Advance Wars is even getting a Japanese release. It's certainly an important question as a negative would kill his chances instantly. But I think the answer is that yes, of course it will. Nintendo's a Japanese company. They make games for a Japanese audience. Even with all of Advance Wars' woes over there, every game was released in Japan. I highly doubt they'll stop now. As for why it wasn't announced on the Japanese E3? Well, I watched it, and there were like 5 or so games on it that weren't on our stream and they were obviously more suited for that audience. We're talking Power Pro, Tokimeki Memorial, Crayon Shin-chan, I think Momotaro Densetsu and Robot Wars were there. These names may not mean much to you but they're juggernauts over there and make a ton more sense to feature than AW. So I don't take it as an indicator that Reboot Camp isn't planned for localization, I expect that it'll be simply announced later on like the FDC remakes (maybe even on the September Direct). Andy in Smash was always going to be a more Western centric play so as long as the game releases in Japan he's good.
Finally, the reasons why Andy is a bit higher than my scores for Ashley and Ayumi is that his moveset concept is easier to envision (resource-managing summoner, versus Ayumi who would need a lot of creative freedoms and Ashley who hasn't actually been seen doing much of combat), and he's the clear cut rep for his franchise both in importance and popularity (WarioWare could be repped by Mona or 9-Volt, and after Hero I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to go for the protagonist over Ayumi).
Want: 100%
Noms: Magolor
Isaac prediction: 7.94%
Waluigi prediction: 9.69%
I get the feeling that a lot of AT doom-and-gloom (plus the generalized FP11 pessimism) will severely affect the Camelot Duo
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DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,219
Andy
Chance: 2% - A shiny new game and plenty of fan demand have definitely been on and continue to be on Andy's side, and if anything, said fan demand was able to bring forth this miraculous revival! Furthermore, Advance Wars doesn't have any content in the base game (as far as I can remember) so it may not get treated the same way Monster Hunter did, and may be up for consideration. But don't let Shiny New Game syndrome fool you, Andy's got a lot to overcome that I still believe makes him a character that simply missed the boat for Ultimate. Firstly, we don't know how far back this remaster was planned, so it very much could've been decided upon after the pass was already decided (though Nintendo could've left a "wild card" slot for themselves at the end, a point I'll probably use for Louie in a couple of days), but more than likely (like Astral Chain and Ring Fit) Andy missed theTank Boat. The next point is how his remaster was outsourced to Wayforward rather than being done in-house at Intelligent Systems. If Nintendo wanted to make a big dedicated comeback for the IP they'd likely put more money behind it at the main studio that owns the IP. This furthermore culminates in the likelihood of Nintendo not wanting to commit to a full character for the final slot when they could pick someone more profitable. Finally, there's the fact that the Trailer for the remakes wasn't aired in the Japanese E3 Direct. I know Wayforward's a Western studio, but since Smash still leans towards its' Japanese audience, Nintendo would more than likely want to get said audience refamiliarized with Andy and his buddies if he were getting into Smash. Now, Andy's trailer could still air in Japan at some point but it doesn't point to much confidence on Nintendo's side.
Want: 40% - More or less neutral on Andy. On one hand, another military character to go along with Snake would be very cool (and still differentiates himself due to being a mechanic), and I'd love to see his fans smile, since they've been waiting a long time! I also appreciate how true to the originals (especially in tone) the Advance Wars remakes are, especially in contrast to what Intelligent Systems did with Fire Emblem after Awakening's success. On the other hand, it's the final slot, so there's many other characters I'd rather see. Especially plenty of first parties. Still, it's a new series for Smash, Andy would be very unique, and he'd be a rare example of a shill pick done right, so while he wouldn't be my first choice, I wouldn't have any issue if he got in.
Ashley
Chance: 0.5% - For the most part I believe that assist trophies are not likely to happen, especially for the last slot. Now a notable exception is Waluigi, his disclusion made the news and he remains a very popular character, both genuinely and ironically. Ashley, while a popular WarioWare character, isn't a doorbuster, nor is she as popular of a pick as the aforementioned Waluigi or Isaac. Granted, WarioWare has done well for itself over the years with consistent releases, and Ashley is typically chosen as the representative of WarioWare's original characters in other Nintendo media, so relevancy and lack of popularity will never be an issue for her. Still, this would work against her as well, as, while it is doing well, WarioWare isn't a series that Nintendo's actively pushing as a rising star like, say, Xenoblade, so a random promotional character doesn't seem like something they'd do. Everyone expects a promotional Nintendo character to be last, and Shiny New Game Syndrome tends to mesh with this, but unless you're a Nintendo golden child like Fire Emblem, you really don't see promotional reps so close to your Shiny New Game's release. Our Xenoblade 2 reps came along 4 years after Xenoblade 2 released, and ARMS got its' rep three years after its release. It's difficult to imagine Nintendo doing this for a much smaller franchise like WarioWare, which typically doesn't get this kind of special treatment. Though her Mii costume was DLC last game so there is that to keep in mind. Furthermore, Ashley's popularity was addressed in base game, with both her Mii returning alongside her new Assist Trophy replacing Kat and Ana, so Sakurai and Nintendo may see this as "enough".
Now, GoodGrief did bring up an excellent point, that the hype for her character has been going since before the ballot, which is a point I brought up in favor of Rayman a couple of days ago. This is the era to look towards for the final slot. However, I have observed over time that Ashley's levels of hype have fluctuated a ton. Ashley had a lot of hype going for her in Smash 4 base/early DLC speculation, alongside Ultimate base speculation, but both took a nosedive and basically went to sleep as she got deconfirmed. Contrast this to Waluigi, who's hype only got stronger with the news of his assist trophy. So if we get an assist promotion, this is going to be the one that catches Nintendo's eye. Alongside that, Rayman himself has meen much more consistant, even in the face of Crash taking his throne. Now, I can definitely see Ashley being a big contender for the next game's base game, but as DLC, her assist trophy alone, along with the representation she has already in the game (an assist, spirit, AND Mii Costume, much like Spring Man) make me think she just isn't happening, even with a new WarioWare coming soon.
Want: 10% - Ashley would have a very interesting moveset, Smash definitely needs more magicians. Alongside that, she is a seasoned character, and a WarioWare staple since the early 2000's. So she's definitely earned it! Though when it comes to Wario representation, I'd much rather see Wario Land get more content instead, and Captain Syrup would make for a fantastic Wario rep. Wario Land only has three spirits and a song to its name in Smash, and I think they could do a lot of cool things with all of the wacky elements Wario Land brings with it. Now, Ashley would make a great base game rep for next game, but does WarioWare really needs a full challenger pack? WarioWare already has tons of content in Smash, from most of Wario's moveset to tons of music, two stages, an assist trophy and Mii, and tons of spirits. There's also the matter of Ashley's spirit board. While it isn't the main selling point of a challenger pack, I was very disappointed in the ARMS and Xenoblade 2 spirit boards, which were mostly re-used spirits and left out several major characters. This would no doubt happen to Ashley's spirit board as well, since all of WarioWare's major characters are represented as spirits already. I know you could add people like Penny Crygor, or Ashley's little devil assistant, or maybe, that bizarre little girl from WarioWare Gold, but you really have to grasp to make a WarioWare spirit board worthwhile. Ashley is a fun character, but I really think Wario Land needs the content way more, and I don't think WarioWare really needs an entire challenger pack.
Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xHalf
DJ Octavio xHalf
Predictions:
Waluigi - 9.72%
Isaac - 7.73%
Chance: 2% - A shiny new game and plenty of fan demand have definitely been on and continue to be on Andy's side, and if anything, said fan demand was able to bring forth this miraculous revival! Furthermore, Advance Wars doesn't have any content in the base game (as far as I can remember) so it may not get treated the same way Monster Hunter did, and may be up for consideration. But don't let Shiny New Game syndrome fool you, Andy's got a lot to overcome that I still believe makes him a character that simply missed the boat for Ultimate. Firstly, we don't know how far back this remaster was planned, so it very much could've been decided upon after the pass was already decided (though Nintendo could've left a "wild card" slot for themselves at the end, a point I'll probably use for Louie in a couple of days), but more than likely (like Astral Chain and Ring Fit) Andy missed the
Want: 40% - More or less neutral on Andy. On one hand, another military character to go along with Snake would be very cool (and still differentiates himself due to being a mechanic), and I'd love to see his fans smile, since they've been waiting a long time! I also appreciate how true to the originals (especially in tone) the Advance Wars remakes are, especially in contrast to what Intelligent Systems did with Fire Emblem after Awakening's success. On the other hand, it's the final slot, so there's many other characters I'd rather see. Especially plenty of first parties. Still, it's a new series for Smash, Andy would be very unique, and he'd be a rare example of a shill pick done right, so while he wouldn't be my first choice, I wouldn't have any issue if he got in.
Ashley
Chance: 0.5% - For the most part I believe that assist trophies are not likely to happen, especially for the last slot. Now a notable exception is Waluigi, his disclusion made the news and he remains a very popular character, both genuinely and ironically. Ashley, while a popular WarioWare character, isn't a doorbuster, nor is she as popular of a pick as the aforementioned Waluigi or Isaac. Granted, WarioWare has done well for itself over the years with consistent releases, and Ashley is typically chosen as the representative of WarioWare's original characters in other Nintendo media, so relevancy and lack of popularity will never be an issue for her. Still, this would work against her as well, as, while it is doing well, WarioWare isn't a series that Nintendo's actively pushing as a rising star like, say, Xenoblade, so a random promotional character doesn't seem like something they'd do. Everyone expects a promotional Nintendo character to be last, and Shiny New Game Syndrome tends to mesh with this, but unless you're a Nintendo golden child like Fire Emblem, you really don't see promotional reps so close to your Shiny New Game's release. Our Xenoblade 2 reps came along 4 years after Xenoblade 2 released, and ARMS got its' rep three years after its release. It's difficult to imagine Nintendo doing this for a much smaller franchise like WarioWare, which typically doesn't get this kind of special treatment. Though her Mii costume was DLC last game so there is that to keep in mind. Furthermore, Ashley's popularity was addressed in base game, with both her Mii returning alongside her new Assist Trophy replacing Kat and Ana, so Sakurai and Nintendo may see this as "enough".
Now, GoodGrief did bring up an excellent point, that the hype for her character has been going since before the ballot, which is a point I brought up in favor of Rayman a couple of days ago. This is the era to look towards for the final slot. However, I have observed over time that Ashley's levels of hype have fluctuated a ton. Ashley had a lot of hype going for her in Smash 4 base/early DLC speculation, alongside Ultimate base speculation, but both took a nosedive and basically went to sleep as she got deconfirmed. Contrast this to Waluigi, who's hype only got stronger with the news of his assist trophy. So if we get an assist promotion, this is going to be the one that catches Nintendo's eye. Alongside that, Rayman himself has meen much more consistant, even in the face of Crash taking his throne. Now, I can definitely see Ashley being a big contender for the next game's base game, but as DLC, her assist trophy alone, along with the representation she has already in the game (an assist, spirit, AND Mii Costume, much like Spring Man) make me think she just isn't happening, even with a new WarioWare coming soon.
Want: 10% - Ashley would have a very interesting moveset, Smash definitely needs more magicians. Alongside that, she is a seasoned character, and a WarioWare staple since the early 2000's. So she's definitely earned it! Though when it comes to Wario representation, I'd much rather see Wario Land get more content instead, and Captain Syrup would make for a fantastic Wario rep. Wario Land only has three spirits and a song to its name in Smash, and I think they could do a lot of cool things with all of the wacky elements Wario Land brings with it. Now, Ashley would make a great base game rep for next game, but does WarioWare really needs a full challenger pack? WarioWare already has tons of content in Smash, from most of Wario's moveset to tons of music, two stages, an assist trophy and Mii, and tons of spirits. There's also the matter of Ashley's spirit board. While it isn't the main selling point of a challenger pack, I was very disappointed in the ARMS and Xenoblade 2 spirit boards, which were mostly re-used spirits and left out several major characters. This would no doubt happen to Ashley's spirit board as well, since all of WarioWare's major characters are represented as spirits already. I know you could add people like Penny Crygor, or Ashley's little devil assistant, or maybe, that bizarre little girl from WarioWare Gold, but you really have to grasp to make a WarioWare spirit board worthwhile. Ashley is a fun character, but I really think Wario Land needs the content way more, and I don't think WarioWare really needs an entire challenger pack.
Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xHalf
DJ Octavio xHalf
Predictions:
Waluigi - 9.72%
Isaac - 7.73%
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
It has 3 Spirits, Andy himself, Olaf, and the Infantry & Tanks.
I'm no expert, but I don't think a game of this scope has a two-year turnaround? Could be wrong but that seems way too short imo, especially as they'd need to do preliminary negotiations with WayForward before development could begin.
I don't think that's a fair criticism, it applies to nearly every character and it's more representative of speculation trends than actual demand.
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DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,219
I know, it was more conjecture than anything. I was just mentioning that her competition might end up kinda drowning her out/being seen as a bigger priority by Nintendo.
And thanks for the heads up on the spirits! Nonetheless, it isn't as big of a base game-representation as, say Monster Hunter, so it still wouldn't be a strike against Andy's chances.
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Cutie Gwen
Lovely warrior
Tank Dating Simulator
Chance: 1% Woah, a new after all these years, surely, that's up for Nintendo's alleyway? Well, not really. For starters, there's the remake itself, being outsourced to a company who asked to make it rather than out of Nintendo's own interest, just like FDC, then there's the current lack of localization for Japan which is also similar to FDC as you'd think something that'd get involved with Smash would be pushed harder by Nintendo. Thirdly, there's how Smash doesn't have much of a hand in reviving old franchises despite what many people dream of and finally, there's how Nintendo handles DLC that promotes a new game, the game itself has already sold well or is anticipated to sell well by Nintendo, which isn't the case here for the remakes and while you can argue that Corrin and Byleth prove otherwise, Fates sold gangbusters in Japan where it was already released before having Corrin get added to the game and by the time Byleth existed, Fire Emblem was a heavy hitting Nintendo franchise, easily outselling most Nintendo franchises, Advance Wars hasn't seen a new game in over a decade and I do not believe this to be what Nintendo would prioritize compared to every other instance of first party DLC
Want: 0% The ideas as a character aren't bad if we're gonna be honest, the way I imagine Andy working would he like Jack-O in Guilty Gear Xrd which is admittedly fun, but there's one major issue for me. I hated my time with the series. I tried, I really did, but I didn't like my experience with Advance Wars at all, I got one for free on the DS due to a sale of getting a second hand game for free and got AW1 on the Wii U as I had extra cash and thought "Well, people keep raving about this and it's from the Fire Emblem devs and as I love FE, surely this will be fun, after all, fans seem to dislike the other one I tried" but I didn't enjoy it at all, primarily because fog of war was just too ****ing obnoxious after what felt like 3 maps in a row with it and I have to be honest, why would anyone want something they don't like? The answer is they wouldn't. That being said, I am happy for fans that they're getting a chance for a revival with the remakes.
LEEEOOOOON! LEOOOOOOOON! Wait wrong Ashley
Chance: 0% lmao AT. I don't care how popular she is, I don't care that Nintendo loved using her to promote **** like Monster Hunter and I don't care who it is, I believe being an AT means you're out as I've made clear on every other AT rating.
Want: 70% What I've also made clear with other AT ratings is that I think it sucks depending on the character, with Ashley being one such example, I like supernatural elements and being a witch, Ashley does cater to that element. Ashley's moveset specifically gives of a lot of ideas, her normals would have staff swings obviously but her specials are the real meat of the magic moveset, maybe have her summon Red who tries to attack the closest enemy to add pressure, maybe have her randomly make potions which affects those hit by them after she tosses them by status effects or debuffs. Overall, solid ideas on paper
Split noms between Soma and Junpei
Chance: 1% Woah, a new after all these years, surely, that's up for Nintendo's alleyway? Well, not really. For starters, there's the remake itself, being outsourced to a company who asked to make it rather than out of Nintendo's own interest, just like FDC, then there's the current lack of localization for Japan which is also similar to FDC as you'd think something that'd get involved with Smash would be pushed harder by Nintendo. Thirdly, there's how Smash doesn't have much of a hand in reviving old franchises despite what many people dream of and finally, there's how Nintendo handles DLC that promotes a new game, the game itself has already sold well or is anticipated to sell well by Nintendo, which isn't the case here for the remakes and while you can argue that Corrin and Byleth prove otherwise, Fates sold gangbusters in Japan where it was already released before having Corrin get added to the game and by the time Byleth existed, Fire Emblem was a heavy hitting Nintendo franchise, easily outselling most Nintendo franchises, Advance Wars hasn't seen a new game in over a decade and I do not believe this to be what Nintendo would prioritize compared to every other instance of first party DLC
Want: 0% The ideas as a character aren't bad if we're gonna be honest, the way I imagine Andy working would he like Jack-O in Guilty Gear Xrd which is admittedly fun, but there's one major issue for me. I hated my time with the series. I tried, I really did, but I didn't like my experience with Advance Wars at all, I got one for free on the DS due to a sale of getting a second hand game for free and got AW1 on the Wii U as I had extra cash and thought "Well, people keep raving about this and it's from the Fire Emblem devs and as I love FE, surely this will be fun, after all, fans seem to dislike the other one I tried" but I didn't enjoy it at all, primarily because fog of war was just too ****ing obnoxious after what felt like 3 maps in a row with it and I have to be honest, why would anyone want something they don't like? The answer is they wouldn't. That being said, I am happy for fans that they're getting a chance for a revival with the remakes.
LEEEOOOOON! LEOOOOOOOON! Wait wrong Ashley
Chance: 0% lmao AT. I don't care how popular she is, I don't care that Nintendo loved using her to promote **** like Monster Hunter and I don't care who it is, I believe being an AT means you're out as I've made clear on every other AT rating.
Want: 70% What I've also made clear with other AT ratings is that I think it sucks depending on the character, with Ashley being one such example, I like supernatural elements and being a witch, Ashley does cater to that element. Ashley's moveset specifically gives of a lot of ideas, her normals would have staff swings obviously but her specials are the real meat of the magic moveset, maybe have her summon Red who tries to attack the closest enemy to add pressure, maybe have her randomly make potions which affects those hit by them after she tosses them by status effects or debuffs. Overall, solid ideas on paper
Split noms between Soma and Junpei
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
War crimes
Chance: 0.5%
People like to hypothesize about the final character being a spanking new, relevant, promotional pick to make the roster feel less "dated". I don't particularly agree that that's how the DLC is supposed to end, though even if I did, I'm not sure if Andy fits the bill. Advance wars is getting a shiny new... remake and that has fans excited but the game being outsourced to Wayforward as well as Japan not having the trailer yet are huge red flags when we're talking Smash Bros. Really gives of the vibe that the Advance wars remake isn't as big of a project we think it is. Nintendo isn't going to commit to a fighter if the case. Could be next game material if the remake does well but for now I can't see it happening.
Want: Abstaining
Ashley
Chance: 1%
She's the most popular Warioware character besides the man himself and she definitely has a fair amount of requests or at least she used to. However, she's already a spirit, a costume and most importantly, an Assist Trophy in the base game. I guess she's technically still eligible but how likely is it that Nintendo has her be the final fighter and chooses to upgrade her over you know who? Warioware get it Together is certainly an argument but not only does that far from guarantee a Smash spot, it could be argued that the timing just doesn't line up or that a new Warioware just doesn't scream something Nintendo would give special treatment like they did with Fire Emblem and ARMS. The series also likely doesn't have much more new to ad to Smash in a challenger pack since most can agree the Warioware franchise is represented quite well already.
Want: 5%
Maybe she can bring a quirky moveset but I wouldn't be hype for her. Warioware isn't a series I've touched in forever, perhaps it's a bit too "what you see is what you get" for me? All I know is that Warioware does not need more content imo. This isn't a case like Kirby or DK where the amount of representation feels unsatisfying, Warioware in Smash has been well fed and you gotta ask what more they can do with it. I'd much rather have a first-party from a series that hasn't gotten its full potential in Smash yet, wether they are on the roster or not. This series is developped by the same people behind Rhythm Heaven and I'd honestly much rather see somebody from those games.
Isaac: 13.27%
Waluigi: 37.43%
Bandana Dee x15
Chance: 0.5%
People like to hypothesize about the final character being a spanking new, relevant, promotional pick to make the roster feel less "dated". I don't particularly agree that that's how the DLC is supposed to end, though even if I did, I'm not sure if Andy fits the bill. Advance wars is getting a shiny new... remake and that has fans excited but the game being outsourced to Wayforward as well as Japan not having the trailer yet are huge red flags when we're talking Smash Bros. Really gives of the vibe that the Advance wars remake isn't as big of a project we think it is. Nintendo isn't going to commit to a fighter if the case. Could be next game material if the remake does well but for now I can't see it happening.
Want: Abstaining
Ashley
Chance: 1%
She's the most popular Warioware character besides the man himself and she definitely has a fair amount of requests or at least she used to. However, she's already a spirit, a costume and most importantly, an Assist Trophy in the base game. I guess she's technically still eligible but how likely is it that Nintendo has her be the final fighter and chooses to upgrade her over you know who? Warioware get it Together is certainly an argument but not only does that far from guarantee a Smash spot, it could be argued that the timing just doesn't line up or that a new Warioware just doesn't scream something Nintendo would give special treatment like they did with Fire Emblem and ARMS. The series also likely doesn't have much more new to ad to Smash in a challenger pack since most can agree the Warioware franchise is represented quite well already.
Want: 5%
Maybe she can bring a quirky moveset but I wouldn't be hype for her. Warioware isn't a series I've touched in forever, perhaps it's a bit too "what you see is what you get" for me? All I know is that Warioware does not need more content imo. This isn't a case like Kirby or DK where the amount of representation feels unsatisfying, Warioware in Smash has been well fed and you gotta ask what more they can do with it. I'd much rather have a first-party from a series that hasn't gotten its full potential in Smash yet, wether they are on the roster or not. This series is developped by the same people behind Rhythm Heaven and I'd honestly much rather see somebody from those games.
Isaac: 13.27%
Waluigi: 37.43%
Bandana Dee x15
writes his name on feet
chances: 15% i could believe it'll happen. now the main thing its going for it is its upcoming revival which could be all nintendo needs to suggest him for smash. and as the revival is a remake sakurai wouldnt need to play the new game to build a moveset so we need no worry whether or not he was allowed behind the scenes. but the timing of the revival may be a bit to close to the time frame we're due to getmatt smith number 11. and i would at the time of picking the current pass they wouldnt have known then reboot camp would be due to be out. then again as it is a remake all the reason that would be a problem for other characters from upcoming games shouldnt matter for andy as he's been around for ages. in short it can see it happening but i think others are more likely.
want: 70% are rare case of a character from a game i do not play that i think should be in smash. for a time AW was a fairly large nintendo franchise particularly around the time of brawl iirc. was even on a similar level as FE was before awakening. so really to me it kinda feels like AW should have had a playable character in smash by now. obviously the series dormancy is whats been keeping him for the last two games but really brawl was the right time to include him. so as much i dislike the term "deserves to be in smash" this is one franchise that it could be properly applied too. it may be dormant but for a time it was nintendo series that was doing pretty well for itself so i say that should get him in smash.
the other ashley
gonna abstain on this one. i know enough to do a write up but i just don't like her
any and all noms i got go to spirit events continue after pass
chances: 15% i could believe it'll happen. now the main thing its going for it is its upcoming revival which could be all nintendo needs to suggest him for smash. and as the revival is a remake sakurai wouldnt need to play the new game to build a moveset so we need no worry whether or not he was allowed behind the scenes. but the timing of the revival may be a bit to close to the time frame we're due to get
want: 70% are rare case of a character from a game i do not play that i think should be in smash. for a time AW was a fairly large nintendo franchise particularly around the time of brawl iirc. was even on a similar level as FE was before awakening. so really to me it kinda feels like AW should have had a playable character in smash by now. obviously the series dormancy is whats been keeping him for the last two games but really brawl was the right time to include him. so as much i dislike the term "deserves to be in smash" this is one franchise that it could be properly applied too. it may be dormant but for a time it was nintendo series that was doing pretty well for itself so i say that should get him in smash.
the other ashley
gonna abstain on this one. i know enough to do a write up but i just don't like her
any and all noms i got go to spirit events continue after pass
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Heads up: today's the last day you can affect the top seven. When the day is over, the next week's schedule will be set in stone, so make those nominations count!
Boss: Rayquaza soars past 200 noms.
[Rerate] Louie x500
Octoling x488
Mii Costume: 2B x470
Pyramid Head x435
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x340
Junpei (Zero Escape) x338
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x330
Meat Boy x310
300 - 251
Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260
250 - 201
Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x215
Giygas x205
[Rerate] Kiryu x205
Boss: Rayquaza x205
200 - 151
Stage: Bowser's Castle x197
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Echo (Bowser) x153
150 - 101
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Fulgore x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x115
Soma Cruz x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
100 - 51
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Eggman x82
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x75
DJ Octavio x70
Off The Hook x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Sora x58
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
50 - 25
[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Lugia x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Under 25
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1
Octoling x488
Mii Costume: 2B x470
Pyramid Head x435
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x340
Junpei (Zero Escape) x338
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x330
Meat Boy x310
300 - 251
Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260
250 - 201
Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x215
Giygas x205
[Rerate] Kiryu x205
Boss: Rayquaza x205
200 - 151
Stage: Bowser's Castle x197
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Echo (Bowser) x153
150 - 101
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Fulgore x137
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x115
Soma Cruz x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
100 - 51
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Eggman x82
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x75
DJ Octavio x70
Off The Hook x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Sora x58
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
50 - 25
[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Lugia x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Under 25
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1
Boss: Rayquaza soars past 200 noms.
ArkSPiTFirE
Smash Journeyman
Andy
Chance: 10%
Want: 65%
I really like Advance Wars, they're kind of our forgotten GBA title cousins. I was happy to see the reveal of a remake and i'm getting that as soon as it drops. However when it comes to Smash, Andy or Sami are nowhere on my radar for some reason. I think it's just the kind of game it is, doesn't really lend itself to adding characters. That's not to say it's impossible, but the moveset will have to be quite creative. I don't think it'll be Captain Falcon sort of translation. Basically, despite a new game potentially raising his chances, I don't think it's enough to confidently say he's making a spot.
Ashley
Abstain. Got nothing good to say about her.
Predictions
Waluigi: 36.57%
Isaac: 21.42%
Chance: 10%
Want: 65%
I really like Advance Wars, they're kind of our forgotten GBA title cousins. I was happy to see the reveal of a remake and i'm getting that as soon as it drops. However when it comes to Smash, Andy or Sami are nowhere on my radar for some reason. I think it's just the kind of game it is, doesn't really lend itself to adding characters. That's not to say it's impossible, but the moveset will have to be quite creative. I don't think it'll be Captain Falcon sort of translation. Basically, despite a new game potentially raising his chances, I don't think it's enough to confidently say he's making a spot.
Ashley
Abstain. Got nothing good to say about her.
Predictions
Waluigi: 36.57%
Isaac: 21.42%
Andy
Chance: 5%
The first Advance Wars game got delayed for Japan as a result of a... certain real world event that occurred a day after the first game's NA release. This resulted in the series schedule for Japan being messed up, with the first game only being available in a compilation and Days of Ruin never even releasing there until 5 years later as a Club Nintendo reward. Even if the series had a consistent Japanese schedule, it doesn't help that the Advance Wars series has been dormant for so long. Yes we are getting the new remake but I generally don't see remakes being worthy of a Smash promotion.
Also while not as likely, there is a chance that Andy could get Spring Man'd and they add someone like Nell or Sami instead. If you asked me that before FP2 then I'd scoff at the idea, but after we've had three cases in FP2 of the most obvious choice getting put to the side over someone else, I see it as an actual possibility.
Ok now with the bad out of the way lets start with the good: the Wars series as a whole does have some legacy in Japan because of Famicom Wars as well as several other entries that have done well there. It might not be the most popular series but the games have sold worldwide prior to FP2 which is one major advantage that Andy has over Famicom Detective's Ayumi. Now granted I'm still concerned about the AW remake not having a Japanese release date; of course it'll get one eventually but the fact it hasn't now makes me concerned. Perhaps it could be seen as a reverse Fire Emblem situation? It mainly depends on if Nintendo wants the AW series to actually continue or if Sakurai wants to use the final character for a more low key pick.
Want: 100%
The Advance Wars games are amazing turn-based titles that I have always preferred over Fire Emblem. They are really fun and challenging so I better see you all buying the remakes when they release later this year.
Andy is easily one of my top 5 most wanted Smash characters ever. He'd represent the series perfectly and has a lot of potential when it comes to the troop/vehicle units. Granted I would also be down for some of the other AW characters (namely Sami) just so long as the series gets some well-deserved representation.
-----
Ashley
Chance: 0%
I just don't see AT promotions happening. It really feels like despite most AT's being popular characters in their own right, Nintendo/Sakurai feel satisfied with their role as a temporary stage enemy for the entirety of that Smash game for whatever reason. Ashley is pretty popular and would definitely be the next WarioWare rep if we were to get one, but I feel like Nintendo/Sakurai are satisfied with the amount of Wario content in Smash for whatever reason.
I don't think the new WarioWare game helps her chances that much. It's of course a new game that Nintendo will eventually start to promote right before it releases, but it doesn't seem like one of their main highlights of the year or an up-and-coming franchise that would largely benefit from a Smash inclusion. I made the mistake 3 years ago in thinking that WarioWare Gold was a massive boost for Ashley's chances... only for her to be deconfirmed unceremoniously in the August 2018 Direct not even 2 weeks after Gold's release.
Want: 100%
The Wario series as a whole has such an amazing supporting cast that it really stinks how we haven't gotten a second rep from it. Pretty much any of the side characters would get +90% want scores from me. It's actually hard to choose who my second Wario rep would be (Captain Syrup, Mona, Kat & Ana, and 9-Volt are all worthy contenders), but I feel like Ashley is the one I'd like the most. I would really like to play as a stereotypical witch (no, Bayo doesn't count) that uses potions/magic/broom attacks. Also I'd like to see how Red is incorporated as I can see him being like Luma in regards to attacking.
-----
Waluigi chance prediction: 14.01%
Isaac chance prediction: 10.00%
Nominations:
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x20
Chance: 5%
The first Advance Wars game got delayed for Japan as a result of a... certain real world event that occurred a day after the first game's NA release. This resulted in the series schedule for Japan being messed up, with the first game only being available in a compilation and Days of Ruin never even releasing there until 5 years later as a Club Nintendo reward. Even if the series had a consistent Japanese schedule, it doesn't help that the Advance Wars series has been dormant for so long. Yes we are getting the new remake but I generally don't see remakes being worthy of a Smash promotion.
Also while not as likely, there is a chance that Andy could get Spring Man'd and they add someone like Nell or Sami instead. If you asked me that before FP2 then I'd scoff at the idea, but after we've had three cases in FP2 of the most obvious choice getting put to the side over someone else, I see it as an actual possibility.
Ok now with the bad out of the way lets start with the good: the Wars series as a whole does have some legacy in Japan because of Famicom Wars as well as several other entries that have done well there. It might not be the most popular series but the games have sold worldwide prior to FP2 which is one major advantage that Andy has over Famicom Detective's Ayumi. Now granted I'm still concerned about the AW remake not having a Japanese release date; of course it'll get one eventually but the fact it hasn't now makes me concerned. Perhaps it could be seen as a reverse Fire Emblem situation? It mainly depends on if Nintendo wants the AW series to actually continue or if Sakurai wants to use the final character for a more low key pick.
Want: 100%
The Advance Wars games are amazing turn-based titles that I have always preferred over Fire Emblem. They are really fun and challenging so I better see you all buying the remakes when they release later this year.
Andy is easily one of my top 5 most wanted Smash characters ever. He'd represent the series perfectly and has a lot of potential when it comes to the troop/vehicle units. Granted I would also be down for some of the other AW characters (namely Sami) just so long as the series gets some well-deserved representation.
-----
Ashley
Chance: 0%
I just don't see AT promotions happening. It really feels like despite most AT's being popular characters in their own right, Nintendo/Sakurai feel satisfied with their role as a temporary stage enemy for the entirety of that Smash game for whatever reason. Ashley is pretty popular and would definitely be the next WarioWare rep if we were to get one, but I feel like Nintendo/Sakurai are satisfied with the amount of Wario content in Smash for whatever reason.
I don't think the new WarioWare game helps her chances that much. It's of course a new game that Nintendo will eventually start to promote right before it releases, but it doesn't seem like one of their main highlights of the year or an up-and-coming franchise that would largely benefit from a Smash inclusion. I made the mistake 3 years ago in thinking that WarioWare Gold was a massive boost for Ashley's chances... only for her to be deconfirmed unceremoniously in the August 2018 Direct not even 2 weeks after Gold's release.
Want: 100%
The Wario series as a whole has such an amazing supporting cast that it really stinks how we haven't gotten a second rep from it. Pretty much any of the side characters would get +90% want scores from me. It's actually hard to choose who my second Wario rep would be (Captain Syrup, Mona, Kat & Ana, and 9-Volt are all worthy contenders), but I feel like Ashley is the one I'd like the most. I would really like to play as a stereotypical witch (no, Bayo doesn't count) that uses potions/magic/broom attacks. Also I'd like to see how Red is incorporated as I can see him being like Luma in regards to attacking.
-----
Waluigi chance prediction: 14.01%
Isaac chance prediction: 10.00%
Nominations:
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x20
The Ashley AT was also in Smash 4.
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2013
- Messages
- 3,965
- NNID
- TCT~Phantom
I took a bit of a hiatus for personal reasons, Smash speculation was burning me out. But I feel like I am back enough.
Andy
10% Chance
Honestly, Advance Wars is a solid choice for a shill rep, more likely than Ayumi imo. While the Japanese release has not been confirmed, it seems relatively likely to occur especially given that there is a clear desire to have it ported there.
In terms of timing, the average game development timeline usually takes around 2 years. I would say that this game likely started development in 2019. Given that we also had a worldwide pandemic that would have likely hindered development, I do not think that the timing is that bad. I am almost certain that the game was in development before the pass was decided in November 2019. Heck, Byleth was chosen before TH even came out and was in development, so a promo pick like that is not out of the question.
Wars also has a solid legacy. Famicom Wars goes way back, and after AW the series got plenty of worldwide releases. Its one of the frnachises in Nintendo's back pocket I could see them wanting to push, similar to RH or Golden Sun one day.
So why am I not going whole hog on Andy? Well, there is a decent chance that they either do multiple COs or a different CO than Andy. I’d give an AW rep around a 25%, but Andy himself solo? I think 10. At the end of the day, you could easily choose a different CO than Andy. We have seen characters like Rex or Spring Man, faces of their games, get passed over. What's to say that Sami is chosen over Andy as well, or maybe Nell. Who can say.
100% Want
Ashley
2% Chance
Shill Rep. Also Assist Trophy.
Ok to be fair, Ashley right now is one of three ATs I could see Nintendo making DLC. The other two we will discuss tomorrow. Ashley has the benefit of being in a new game Nintendo might want to push and having solid fan demand. Its no Waluigi or Isaac, but she is quite popular. That being said, Ashley is still an AT. Part of my pessimism is that Ashley was not in the base game. Nintendo clearly pushed Ashley a good bit on the 3DS, and WarioWare gold was in development. But she still never made the jump to the roster. In a game where so many fan favorites got in and everything seemed to be going right, she did not make the jump. I guess that makes me pessimistic.
100% Want
One of my friends is a huge WarioWare fan, and I would love for them to be happy. Ashley also is just a fun choice at the end of the day as well. I would love for WarioWare to get more love, since tbh it is so underrated. While there are a few other choices you could do like Mona or Jimmy T, I would want Ashley first since she is the real breakout star. Also we could correct the injustice that is no Wario Deluxe theme in Smash.
Nominating Spyro rerate x 20
Andy
10% Chance
Honestly, Advance Wars is a solid choice for a shill rep, more likely than Ayumi imo. While the Japanese release has not been confirmed, it seems relatively likely to occur especially given that there is a clear desire to have it ported there.
In terms of timing, the average game development timeline usually takes around 2 years. I would say that this game likely started development in 2019. Given that we also had a worldwide pandemic that would have likely hindered development, I do not think that the timing is that bad. I am almost certain that the game was in development before the pass was decided in November 2019. Heck, Byleth was chosen before TH even came out and was in development, so a promo pick like that is not out of the question.
Wars also has a solid legacy. Famicom Wars goes way back, and after AW the series got plenty of worldwide releases. Its one of the frnachises in Nintendo's back pocket I could see them wanting to push, similar to RH or Golden Sun one day.
So why am I not going whole hog on Andy? Well, there is a decent chance that they either do multiple COs or a different CO than Andy. I’d give an AW rep around a 25%, but Andy himself solo? I think 10. At the end of the day, you could easily choose a different CO than Andy. We have seen characters like Rex or Spring Man, faces of their games, get passed over. What's to say that Sami is chosen over Andy as well, or maybe Nell. Who can say.
100% Want
Ashley
2% Chance
Shill Rep. Also Assist Trophy.
Ok to be fair, Ashley right now is one of three ATs I could see Nintendo making DLC. The other two we will discuss tomorrow. Ashley has the benefit of being in a new game Nintendo might want to push and having solid fan demand. Its no Waluigi or Isaac, but she is quite popular. That being said, Ashley is still an AT. Part of my pessimism is that Ashley was not in the base game. Nintendo clearly pushed Ashley a good bit on the 3DS, and WarioWare gold was in development. But she still never made the jump to the roster. In a game where so many fan favorites got in and everything seemed to be going right, she did not make the jump. I guess that makes me pessimistic.
100% Want
One of my friends is a huge WarioWare fan, and I would love for them to be happy. Ashley also is just a fun choice at the end of the day as well. I would love for WarioWare to get more love, since tbh it is so underrated. While there are a few other choices you could do like Mona or Jimmy T, I would want Ashley first since she is the real breakout star. Also we could correct the injustice that is no Wario Deluxe theme in Smash.
Nominating Spyro rerate x 20
Flyboy
Smash Hero
I don't usually like to abstain but I'm afraid I just haven't the energy lately. Frustrating. Abstain.
Nominations: Corvo x5.
Nominations: Corvo x5.
Yiptap
Smash Lord
Abstaining, I’m on a trip so I can’t really rate this time.
Noms: Meat Boy x 5
Noms: Meat Boy x 5
Ura
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2014
- Messages
- 12,838
- Switch FC
- SW-2772-0149-6703
I don't feel motivated to do a big write-up like I did last year so i'm gonna quote what I said back then and give a new rating.
Also, since this post we got 2 characters with very complex movesets
. Just to touch on my last point in the post from last year.
Chance: 35%
Andy is by no means a "shoo-in" for the last spot but his chances are better than what most credit him for. I went over that in my post last year in that Advance/Nintendo Wars is the last long-running Nintendo franchise not yet repped in Smash and now after nearly 14 years, the franchise has become both relevant and timely for Smash cross promotion. It's not the same thing as adding the flipping Sushi Strikers protag in base Smash Ultimate because it's a new game. The Wars series has it's legacy and critical acclaim going for it even if Andy himself isn't a big Smash request the way Geno or Isaac is. Of course with that being said, remakes tend to not have that much priority when it comes to Smash additions but seeing as Advance Wars is completely unrepped character-wise, I think it might be different.
People will also cite the lack of a Japanese release as a black mark against it but keep in mind Famicom Detective Club didn't have a Western release announced until February this year (and that game released in May). If Nintendo's willing to release a text heavy, niche franchise like FDC in all regions worldwide, there's no reason to believe they won't do the same for Advance Wars. In fact, i'm willing to bet they're waiting for the September Direct to make the announcement when it's closer to the release date.
And hey, Andy or whoever from Advance Wars in the Fighter 11 spot would do wonders for increasing it's visibility to people not familiar with the franchise. And it's timely for cross-promotion as I mentioned before. Seeing as Nintendo usually has a character they themselves want to promote in the final spot, Andy is as good a bet as any.
Want: 100%
As if you needed to guess. I would have added a lot more zeroes behind the 1 if I could but I guess 100% will do. Please make this happen already.
So ultimately, Advance Wars did end up getting revived. It just so happens that it was a remake of the GBA games and came from WayForward instead of Intelligent Systems. There was also no mobile game but what we ended up getting is a lot better TBH with a Switch game to promote.
Also, since this post we got 2 characters with very complex movesets
. Just to touch on my last point in the post from last year.Chance: 35%
Andy is by no means a "shoo-in" for the last spot but his chances are better than what most credit him for. I went over that in my post last year in that Advance/Nintendo Wars is the last long-running Nintendo franchise not yet repped in Smash and now after nearly 14 years, the franchise has become both relevant and timely for Smash cross promotion. It's not the same thing as adding the flipping Sushi Strikers protag in base Smash Ultimate because it's a new game. The Wars series has it's legacy and critical acclaim going for it even if Andy himself isn't a big Smash request the way Geno or Isaac is. Of course with that being said, remakes tend to not have that much priority when it comes to Smash additions but seeing as Advance Wars is completely unrepped character-wise, I think it might be different.
People will also cite the lack of a Japanese release as a black mark against it but keep in mind Famicom Detective Club didn't have a Western release announced until February this year (and that game released in May). If Nintendo's willing to release a text heavy, niche franchise like FDC in all regions worldwide, there's no reason to believe they won't do the same for Advance Wars. In fact, i'm willing to bet they're waiting for the September Direct to make the announcement when it's closer to the release date.
And hey, Andy or whoever from Advance Wars in the Fighter 11 spot would do wonders for increasing it's visibility to people not familiar with the franchise. And it's timely for cross-promotion as I mentioned before. Seeing as Nintendo usually has a character they themselves want to promote in the final spot, Andy is as good a bet as any.
Want: 100%
As if you needed to guess. I would have added a lot more zeroes behind the 1 if I could but I guess 100% will do. Please make this happen already.
Last edited:
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,275
Abstain on both. I don't have the energy to rate them.
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5
Laniv
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Apr 20, 2014
- Messages
- 2,004
The Girl Next Door Living in the Haunted Mansion
Chance: 0%
Short answer: lol assist trophy.
Long answer: Yeah, she has a new game coming up, but as other people have said, that doesn't really guarantee a spot. Combined with competition from other characters, both from her series and other ATs, and you get a character with a lot of hurdles to jump over.
Want: 17%
There are many fun and interesting characters from the WarioWare series that could make a Smash Bros. character. Ashley is... not at the top of that list. I'd much prefer someone like Mona or Jimmy T. or even 9-Volt if we're just limiting ourselves to Ware. I know she'd be a proper mage (something sorely lacking in the series), but amidst all the other Wario characters, she just doesn't interest me that much.
Hyper Repair
Chance: 38%
What we know is that the series has a new game coming. Advance/Nintendo Wars is also apparently older than its sister series(!), so it's got the prestige of being a long-running series. It also is largely unrepresented in Smash Bros., with no stage, no music, not even its assist trophy returning. He's got a lot going for him, in that sense.
However, his series was dormant for a while, and he faces competition from Sami, Max, Nell, and possibly even Jake. Those are probably his two biggest hurdles.
Want: 70%
I'm going to be honest with you: I've never played an Advance/Nintendo Wars game. But I can appreciate what it's going for, and I can see he'd have a pretty cool moveset. And I do love the mental image of him smacking Link upside the head with a giant wrench.
Basically, my thoughts on Andy are "Sure, why not?".
Nominate Bowser's Castle stage x 5
Chance: 0%
Short answer: lol assist trophy.
Long answer: Yeah, she has a new game coming up, but as other people have said, that doesn't really guarantee a spot. Combined with competition from other characters, both from her series and other ATs, and you get a character with a lot of hurdles to jump over.
Want: 17%
There are many fun and interesting characters from the WarioWare series that could make a Smash Bros. character. Ashley is... not at the top of that list. I'd much prefer someone like Mona or Jimmy T. or even 9-Volt if we're just limiting ourselves to Ware. I know she'd be a proper mage (something sorely lacking in the series), but amidst all the other Wario characters, she just doesn't interest me that much.
Hyper Repair
Chance: 38%
What we know is that the series has a new game coming. Advance/Nintendo Wars is also apparently older than its sister series(!), so it's got the prestige of being a long-running series. It also is largely unrepresented in Smash Bros., with no stage, no music, not even its assist trophy returning. He's got a lot going for him, in that sense.
However, his series was dormant for a while, and he faces competition from Sami, Max, Nell, and possibly even Jake. Those are probably his two biggest hurdles.
Want: 70%
I'm going to be honest with you: I've never played an Advance/Nintendo Wars game. But I can appreciate what it's going for, and I can see he'd have a pretty cool moveset. And I do love the mental image of him smacking Link upside the head with a giant wrench.
Basically, my thoughts on Andy are "Sure, why not?".
Nominate Bowser's Castle stage x 5
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
Oh No Not Again
Chance: 5%
Promotional pick aside, I just don’t see WarioWare of all series to be in a spot that Nintendo caters to, cares for or cross-promotes in Smash. Just look at the promotion put into it now that it has a new game coming up, it’s massively overshadowed by Metroid Dread and pulls less weight than Wario’s role in the new Mario Golf. Maybe that will change when we get closer to the actual release date but at that point almost every game would get its own tweetstorm.
And despite her breakout popularity, Ashley on her own is very much bound to that series, even though she almost escaped that predicament back in Smash 4 speculation what with the Badge Arcade co-opting her as a mascot. That boundedness means she’s not the main character of her series, and that the series is represented with a playable character already and that while the new game doesn’t get much more promotion than a Mario Golf game in the month it releases. Metroid is back, WarioWare is as back and bolder than ever than Mario Party (a series arguably less represented than WarioWare)
The fact she’s not a main character also means her moveset can’t unabashedly showcase WarioWare, though that might be more of a want rather than chance thing.
Those three (Not the main character, series represented already and series not being a megaton) problems give her less swinging room than both other ballot picks like Isaac (Or Waluigi or Skull Kid if you look at the match-up “New Mario or Zelda character vs New WarioWare character“) as well as other shill picks like Ayumi, Andy and my own favorites for the slot, Paper Mario or a Splatoon character.
Back in Smash 4, she had less problems because the Ashley brand on its own was much stronger and she could make for a solid dark horse on name recognition alone. Now, that brand has dwindled and we’re not going to see her enter as the Crazy Galaxy rep anytime soon.
Besides, it’s not like she’s the only ballot break-out star that got unfortunately ”deconfirmed” as an Assist Trophy back in the base game: she’s sharing that spotlight with Isaac, Skull Kid and Waluigi (maybe Krystal too!) and she’s probably the smallest of those names.
Want: 75%
I’m gonna be pendantic here and say that if it’s singularly Ashley, I’d only give her a 30% rating or so. However, she’s most likely going to have Red in her moveset, who’s just delightfully cartoonish to really bring that WarioWare flair to a character that otherwise might just stick to spooky magic clouds. A transforming magical buddy can bring out the frantic flair that microgames are known for and I’d hate for Ashley to just be a magic user that foregoes her roots’ unique style to try to stand on her own.
Abstain on Andy Vance Wars
Noms go to Off The Hook
Isaac 17.89%
Waluigi: 27.65%
Chance: 5%
Promotional pick aside, I just don’t see WarioWare of all series to be in a spot that Nintendo caters to, cares for or cross-promotes in Smash. Just look at the promotion put into it now that it has a new game coming up, it’s massively overshadowed by Metroid Dread and pulls less weight than Wario’s role in the new Mario Golf. Maybe that will change when we get closer to the actual release date but at that point almost every game would get its own tweetstorm.
And despite her breakout popularity, Ashley on her own is very much bound to that series, even though she almost escaped that predicament back in Smash 4 speculation what with the Badge Arcade co-opting her as a mascot. That boundedness means she’s not the main character of her series, and that the series is represented with a playable character already and that while the new game doesn’t get much more promotion than a Mario Golf game in the month it releases. Metroid is back, WarioWare is as back and bolder than ever than Mario Party (a series arguably less represented than WarioWare)
The fact she’s not a main character also means her moveset can’t unabashedly showcase WarioWare, though that might be more of a want rather than chance thing.
Those three (Not the main character, series represented already and series not being a megaton) problems give her less swinging room than both other ballot picks like Isaac (Or Waluigi or Skull Kid if you look at the match-up “New Mario or Zelda character vs New WarioWare character“) as well as other shill picks like Ayumi, Andy and my own favorites for the slot, Paper Mario or a Splatoon character.
Back in Smash 4, she had less problems because the Ashley brand on its own was much stronger and she could make for a solid dark horse on name recognition alone. Now, that brand has dwindled and we’re not going to see her enter as the Crazy Galaxy rep anytime soon.
Besides, it’s not like she’s the only ballot break-out star that got unfortunately ”deconfirmed” as an Assist Trophy back in the base game: she’s sharing that spotlight with Isaac, Skull Kid and Waluigi (maybe Krystal too!) and she’s probably the smallest of those names.
Want: 75%
I’m gonna be pendantic here and say that if it’s singularly Ashley, I’d only give her a 30% rating or so. However, she’s most likely going to have Red in her moveset, who’s just delightfully cartoonish to really bring that WarioWare flair to a character that otherwise might just stick to spooky magic clouds. A transforming magical buddy can bring out the frantic flair that microgames are known for and I’d hate for Ashley to just be a magic user that foregoes her roots’ unique style to try to stand on her own.
Abstain on Andy Vance Wars
Noms go to Off The Hook
Isaac 17.89%
Waluigi: 27.65%
Day over.
For our final day of the fixed schedule, we have the Camelot duo. Rate Waluigi from the Mario series and Isaac from Golden Sun.
Predict Louie from the Pikmin series.
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Some songs for today's characters:
Waluigi
Isaac
For our final day of the fixed schedule, we have the Camelot duo. Rate Waluigi from the Mario series and Isaac from Golden Sun.
Predict Louie from the Pikmin series.
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Some songs for today's characters:
Waluigi
Isaac
Perkilator
Smash Legend
Abstain. I’ve already said my piece about AT’s multiple times, so I don’t wanna keep beating a dead horse.
Louie: 40%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x10
[Rerate] Sora x10
Louie: 40%
Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x10
[Rerate] Sora x10
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Cutie Gwen
Lovely warrior
Hark how the Waa all seem to Waa joining in rhyme
Chance: 0% Sure, he's got fan demand and lots of it, sure, Sakurai is aware of his immense popularity, sure, as a frequently appearing inMario character, he's timeless, sure, we even got an opinion piece on how Waluigi needs to be in Smash on the NY Times, but guess what? Waluigi is the poster boy for ATs and has been since I believe Brawl, "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll join the battle" being an infamous quote about the situation as it was said for the Smash 4 Pic of the Day with Waluigi, but at the end of the day, Waluigi is an AT and as I've made clear, I believe every AT is out of the running for DLC as much as I may want the likes of Zero or Shovel Knight, no exceptions.
Want: Abstain, I'm completely apathetic towards Waluigi whether he gets in or not as I really don't care for the character in the slightest.
The Binding of Dead Space
Chance: 0% Two words: See Above. A lot of people are gonna object to this because there's evidence that Camelot's working on a new Golden Sun which couldn't possibly be a new Mario Go-oh wait it was a Mario Golf game, so no plans for a revival in sight, no time to announce a revival to coincide with Smash and that AT being meant to cater to fans. Nintendo's MO for first party DLC is picking something fresh and new that the kiddos can pick up right now at the low price of 59.99, so 3 old games of which they don't even sell anymore outside 2 of them being on the hillWii U VC, a system they've entirely abandoned. It'd take Nintendo getting off their ass for this to work with their DLC but as I said, this game doesn't fit the timeline for the last 4 months of the year.
Want: 30% Isaac used to be one of my most wanted characters in the Smash 4 days with Golden Sun being one of my favourite RPGS, but clearly, some major changes happened. For starters, I stepped the **** out of my comfort zone by playing more RPGs than ones owned by Nintendo such as Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, TWEWY, SMT, Trails, YS, NieR, Digimon, Tales and many more, this made me realize RPGs could be so much more and looking back, I would strongly dislike Golden Sun were I to revisit it due to the lackluster story and plot simply not holding up to my new standards for the genre and having played so many other games that managed to wow me pushes Isaac heavily off of a prior pedestal for me. That being said the battle themes of GS typically slap hard so that lowers the want reduction
Soma max noms
Chance: 0% Sure, he's got fan demand and lots of it, sure, Sakurai is aware of his immense popularity, sure, as a frequently appearing inMario character, he's timeless, sure, we even got an opinion piece on how Waluigi needs to be in Smash on the NY Times, but guess what? Waluigi is the poster boy for ATs and has been since I believe Brawl, "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll join the battle" being an infamous quote about the situation as it was said for the Smash 4 Pic of the Day with Waluigi, but at the end of the day, Waluigi is an AT and as I've made clear, I believe every AT is out of the running for DLC as much as I may want the likes of Zero or Shovel Knight, no exceptions.
Want: Abstain, I'm completely apathetic towards Waluigi whether he gets in or not as I really don't care for the character in the slightest.
The Binding of Dead Space
Chance: 0% Two words: See Above. A lot of people are gonna object to this because there's evidence that Camelot's working on a new Golden Sun which couldn't possibly be a new Mario Go-oh wait it was a Mario Golf game, so no plans for a revival in sight, no time to announce a revival to coincide with Smash and that AT being meant to cater to fans. Nintendo's MO for first party DLC is picking something fresh and new that the kiddos can pick up right now at the low price of 59.99, so 3 old games of which they don't even sell anymore outside 2 of them being on the hillWii U VC, a system they've entirely abandoned. It'd take Nintendo getting off their ass for this to work with their DLC but as I said, this game doesn't fit the timeline for the last 4 months of the year.
Want: 30% Isaac used to be one of my most wanted characters in the Smash 4 days with Golden Sun being one of my favourite RPGS, but clearly, some major changes happened. For starters, I stepped the **** out of my comfort zone by playing more RPGs than ones owned by Nintendo such as Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, TWEWY, SMT, Trails, YS, NieR, Digimon, Tales and many more, this made me realize RPGs could be so much more and looking back, I would strongly dislike Golden Sun were I to revisit it due to the lackluster story and plot simply not holding up to my new standards for the genre and having played so many other games that managed to wow me pushes Isaac heavily off of a prior pedestal for me. That being said the battle themes of GS typically slap hard so that lowers the want reduction
Soma max noms
ArkSPiTFirE
Smash Journeyman
We back at it again. Does my Isaac chance score change now that Mario Golf appeared and slapped us all in the face?
Well yes, but actually no. It's still wishful thinking but there is a bit of logic behind it.
Waluigi
Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
So first, I'm still indifferent to Waluigi. I don't want him so I can main him or anything but I'd be glad for the people who genuinely do. I think he would be a funny last pick for Ultimate, however there's many things that let his chances down. They may not be big things you'd even consider individually, but they do kinda add up. Biggest problems facing an addition to a challenger pack are that he doesn't represent a new series, or even a new world in a series (see 3H and XC2), he doesn't have a good music and spirit selection. He doesn't have his own games so you're really just looking at Mario content we don't already have. Speaking of Mario content, we already got Plant in Ultimate bringing the series to 9 fighters. That's probably not important to Nintendo but it certainly makes others more attractive. As I've said before, I can see Waluigi making it in as a bonus DLC or base game next time, it's really just the pass I'm not imagining.
Isaac
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%
Hnngh, ok so this is pretty modest. My real feelings are something like 65% but I know that's just wishful thinking due to lack of information. He's not lower though because 1) I don't believe Isaac would be passed over just because he's a Trophy, just like ARMS and XC2 getting base content didn't really effect them either. 2) I genuinely believe Kazuya was the last third party we're getting in this pass. Could totally be wrong, but that's what I'm expecting.
So who does that leave? A lot of expectations point to titles on the Switch in the 2019 and 2020 periods. I guess it's not out of the question to dip into those, but considering our other first party reps this pass are from 2017, I could see them just not picking anything too new. So who does that leave? I guess they could pick a Zelda character, but with Champion Link in there's limited options out of the new characters. Pokémon and Mario ought to be out of the running since they both got new reps in Ultimate already, but maybe Nintendo doesn't care about that. Anyway i'm rambling.
Basically I think Isaac holds enough to justify getting picked, regardless if there's not been a game for ages. It's an argument that other characters get a pass for, usually when fan demand out-prioritises it. Since Isaac is probably the highest unrepresented First Party character left from the Ballot, or even just pre Ultimate times, he seems like the next best Nintendo pick to me. But that's just me. It's hard to tell how Nintendo thinks. I'm really just banking on them picking one more from the ballot, and Isaac is basically free.
But yeah, 25%. Was hoping to see another Golden Sun by now, so it's certainly not an obvious choice at this stage; but I'm not going to rule out Isaac completely because of that.
Well yes, but actually no. It's still wishful thinking but there is a bit of logic behind it.
Waluigi
Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
So first, I'm still indifferent to Waluigi. I don't want him so I can main him or anything but I'd be glad for the people who genuinely do. I think he would be a funny last pick for Ultimate, however there's many things that let his chances down. They may not be big things you'd even consider individually, but they do kinda add up. Biggest problems facing an addition to a challenger pack are that he doesn't represent a new series, or even a new world in a series (see 3H and XC2), he doesn't have a good music and spirit selection. He doesn't have his own games so you're really just looking at Mario content we don't already have. Speaking of Mario content, we already got Plant in Ultimate bringing the series to 9 fighters. That's probably not important to Nintendo but it certainly makes others more attractive. As I've said before, I can see Waluigi making it in as a bonus DLC or base game next time, it's really just the pass I'm not imagining.
Isaac
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%
Hnngh, ok so this is pretty modest. My real feelings are something like 65% but I know that's just wishful thinking due to lack of information. He's not lower though because 1) I don't believe Isaac would be passed over just because he's a Trophy, just like ARMS and XC2 getting base content didn't really effect them either. 2) I genuinely believe Kazuya was the last third party we're getting in this pass. Could totally be wrong, but that's what I'm expecting.
So who does that leave? A lot of expectations point to titles on the Switch in the 2019 and 2020 periods. I guess it's not out of the question to dip into those, but considering our other first party reps this pass are from 2017, I could see them just not picking anything too new. So who does that leave? I guess they could pick a Zelda character, but with Champion Link in there's limited options out of the new characters. Pokémon and Mario ought to be out of the running since they both got new reps in Ultimate already, but maybe Nintendo doesn't care about that. Anyway i'm rambling.
Basically I think Isaac holds enough to justify getting picked, regardless if there's not been a game for ages. It's an argument that other characters get a pass for, usually when fan demand out-prioritises it. Since Isaac is probably the highest unrepresented First Party character left from the Ballot, or even just pre Ultimate times, he seems like the next best Nintendo pick to me. But that's just me. It's hard to tell how Nintendo thinks. I'm really just banking on them picking one more from the ballot, and Isaac is basically free.
But yeah, 25%. Was hoping to see another Golden Sun by now, so it's certainly not an obvious choice at this stage; but I'm not going to rule out Isaac completely because of that.
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