Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Golden Icarus]

The Coolest Starter I’ve Ever Seen
Chance: 6%

I was pretty high on Decidueye’s chances once Legends was shown off. If there’s one “theme” that has been present in this Fighters Pass, it’s Sakurai revisiting old ideas. Sakurai wanted a Tekken character in Smash 4, but couldn’t find a way to make it work - now Kazuya is in Ultimate. Xeno 2 and ARMS were too late for the base game, and now Pyra and Min Min are in FP2. Sakurai has stated plainly that the archery bird was considered for Ultimate, but was ultimately turned down in favor of Incineroar. We saw a very similar thing happen when Alucard almost made it in instead of the Belmonts. The main thing that separates Decidueye and Alucard from the previously mentioned characters is that we still did get a Sun/Moon and Castlevania character. Unlike Xeno 2 and ARMS, who didn't have any characters before FP2. Decidueye's situation is a bit more similar to Chrom, who was previously denied in favor of Robin. And wouldn't you know it, Chrom was still lucky enough to be added later on into Ultimate, albeit as an echo.

What makes Decidueye's situation a bit more juicy is the fact that he was lucky enough to be chosen as a starter in Legends. It puts him in a pretty good position as he is both a character previously considered by Sakurai, as well as a good "promotional" pick for a new release. Especially if Decidueye has a new move/form/ability in Legends that could be incorporated into his moveset. I could see this happening, for sure. One of my favorite "sleeper picks."

Want: 90%

Yeah, Decidueye is ****ing rad. Grass/Ghost is such a rad combination, and my love for both birds and archery really makes this Pokémon speak to me. I haven't even finished a Pokémon game since Y, and he's still one of favorite mons. It would be a little disappointing to have Decidueye of all characters as our big finale, but despite the circumstances, I would still be happy to see him.

Garchomp
Chance: 2%

I mean hey, he's extremely popular and could promote a new release coming out this year. It's not hard to see why this is a possibility. The fact that we're getting both a Gen 4 remake and Legends makes a Gen 4 Pokémon seem like a pretty good option. And if you're gonna choose a Gen 4 mon, Garchomp is both one of the most popular and easiest to envision in Smash. I generally still don't find him all that likely, though. There are a lot of popular Pokémon, and we've seen remakes ignored for Smash time and time again. He is in a pretty similar situation as Decidueye, with the main difference (in my eyes) being that we know Decidueye was considered in the past, and starters have been getting a lot of attention in Smash lately, with there being a pretty noticeable "fully-evolved Grass starter" sized gap on the roster. It just feels like there is bit more of a case to be made for the bird. But yeah, I see why people are high on the shark's chances.

Want: 10%

Garchomp is cool. I just don't have much interest in seeing him in Smash.

Gen 8
Chance: 10%

It's kind of hard to deny this possibility. The spirit event makes it feel like we could rule it out, but we all said the same thing about Tekken once the Heihachi Mii showed up. It's certainly possible that we could get both a promotional spirit event and a Pokémon later. Pokémon is constantly favored when it comes to Smash, and the most recent Generation is always the best place to look. Hoenn and Unova were skipped, but those are the only exceptions so far. With Smash DLC happening at the exact same time as Gen 8, it's pretty easy to see why this is very possible.

All that said, I think that Nintendo is becoming more aware that people really don't care for promotional characters. Especially when they are the final character reveal. Byleth made that message loud and clear. Plus, unlike FE and Xenoblade, Pokémon does not need to be promoted. The games already sell themselves. Adding a character to Smash probably wouldn't give the games the same bump that Byleth and Pyra did.

Want: Abstain

I mean it really depends. Rillaboom and Toxtricity are pretty cool. Cinderace and Intelleon are...well, not for me. If I had to give a percentage it would probably be below 5%. I definitely wasn't high on this Gen overall.

And speaking of promotional characters...

Noms: E.M.M.I (Metroid Dread) xMax
Probably a little late to be added as a promotional character, but since Dread has been being developed for like a million years, maybe Sakurai received some early designs for the character. I won't lie, the way the robot moves makes me really curious how it could work in Smash...

 

[Jomosensual]

I dont want to do this but I'm abstaining again. I'll probably share why in the discord but I have a lot going on both actually and mentally right now and I don't think I can get myself to put a write up together, let alone multiple right now.

Noms: Ori x all daily

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.
Rate Layton and Monokuma in Chance and Want, predict Shantae and Reimu.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Ori x all daily

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Professor Layton

Chance: 10% - Things haven't changed much for Layton these days. His franchise is still on hiatus and Level-5's internal issues aren't helping matters. Plus FP2 was negotiated when these issues were relevant. Though at the same time, Layton does have some saving graces! Aside from the general Nintendo loyalty as expected of Level-5, Nintendo still features their characters on their website, recent polls and activities, among other things. Furthermore, The Yokai Watch craze is long dead, so that will no longer be an obstacle to Layton's chances. Furthermore, Layton no doubt had a strong showing in the ballot, so Nintendo likely knows that there's demand for him. It's the season of smaller third parties and Layton really benefits from this, and while I wouldn't get my hopes up (second chance theory and all) he's still a solid dark horse that shouldn't be counted out.

Want: 35% - Having recently gotten into Ace Attorney, if I were personally choosing a character from his genre I'd definitely choose Phoenix over Layton. Furthermore, with only one slot left, there are many other choices I'd rather see, and I don't have any connection to Layton's games. Though aside from that, I think he'd be a very fun addition! We don't have any puzzle characters yet, his moveset would be extremely unique, and he'd bring a lot of great content to the game! Furthermore, being a Nintendo mainstay definitely helps out a ton, he'd fit in very well with the Smash cast! So overall, while he wouldn't be my first choice, I certainly would have no complaints if he got in! It's well deserved!


Monokuma

Chance: 15% - In previous ratings for Danganronpa I've commonly cited Nintendo's good relationship with Spike Chunsoft as being the key for one of their characters. Looks like that relationship has really paid off. Nintendo managed to get ports of the trilogy, so we now know that Nintendo has interest in the series. I do think that it may have come a bit too late for FP2 consideration, but a big factor like this is something that really shouldn't be counted out. Now, would they go for Monokuma? Maybe, he's the face of the franchise. But we typically get playable leads over non-playable mascots, so for Monokuma himself that does hamper his chances. Either way He's definitely someone to keep in consideration during the final slot era.

Want: 0% - No thank you. While I do appreciate the gameplay similarities to Ace Attorney, along with his more cartoonish and unorthodox design in a DLC cycle dominated by serious anime-esque designs, there's just a lot of reasons for me to not want him. Danganronpa and its approach to handling death really rubs me the wrong way. Plus many of the character reveal trailers arre already dark and feel-bad enough, I really would rather not see Monokuma executing my favorite characters in-game. Along with having no personal connection to the series, when it comes to genre competition it would be honestly a crime to see Danganronpa get priority over Ace Attorney or Professor Layton. The games just got ported with no prior Nintendo history. Yes, I know people think a character "deserving" the slot is a "dated" concept, and I know I myself have supported Katamari and The Elder Scrolls in Smash (who have had their first mainline Nintendo representation on the Switch) over Tales of and Doom (which have had plenty of Nintendo representation historically), but franchises like Ace Attorney and Professor Layton are exceptional. They don't just have representation, they're Nintendo MAINSTAYS. The entirety of both franchises are available on Nintendo systems and Phoenix spent most of his life completely loyal to Nintendo while Layton still is. You won't see artwork like this coming from the funny murder bear, while it shows the strong connection between Ace Attorney and Nintendo. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate the series or anything like that, but seeing Danganronpa get prioritized over Ace Attorney or Layton would make me upset.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Reimu - 48.01%
Shantae - 46.99%

Expecting some massive overrates for both, considering how their respective fanbases act.
God help us all...

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Pokemon while I still can.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[BowserKing]

Layton

Chance: 10%. His chance has remained the same, and if he were to show up in the Fighter’s Pass, it would be surprising. I can also see him as a Mii Costume and or Spirit.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as, and he would be a unique choice of a fighter. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Monokuma

Chance: 15%. With his games coming to the switch, his chance has increased quite a bit. With that said, he could appear as a spirit and or Mii Costume, but even that is still a stretch.

Want: 60%. The trailer on E3 increased my want chance. Monokuma would be fun to play as and I can see him fight Banjo and Kazooie and R.O.B in a free for all. Overall, he can make a good Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Shantae (15%) and Reimu (15%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Professor Layton

Spoiler: Professor Layton Music

Monokuma

Spoiler: Danganronpa Music

-----

Abstaining for today since I'm not too familiar with their chances.

Reimu chance prediction: 33.00%
Shantae chance prediction: 36.00%

Expecting a ton of overrates on both sides, especially from Shantae since WayForward is working on the Advance Wars remake.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Phoenix Wright but Bri'ish

Chance: Yeah nah, Level 5 is on it's death bed with dwindling sales all around and the US division shutting down entirely because of bankrupcy. Unlike other dead characters who managed to get in, Layton's not nearly popular enough to break the ice in that regard as his fan base has never come close to K.Rool or Banjo levels of vocal, hell, they're less vocal than Isaac fans too. It just seems like there's far too much against Layton.

EDIT: This is apparantly normal for them though I still think it's a bad sign, though not on a never ever, 1%

Want: Abstain, never got to play Layton and there's no collection of sorts to make it easier for me

I guess this is one way of updating the OP

Chance: 5% Ok. So. Danganronpa. This silly franchise was a major hit in the world of VNs, having sold 3.5 million as of last year. For comparison sake, Ace Attorney has sold 8 million copies as of this year and has been around for twice as long while having 10 games while DR has 4. This is pretty ****ing impressive and now a new audience can get their hands on the series as it's coming to the Switch, so by all means, the stars seem to be aligning, especially as a surprising amount of people have expressed interest in DR content in Smash with Spike Chunsoft having no other real competition (Yes I know who I got to the top of noms shut up) but there is one issue Monokuma specifically has. That is, his role in the series. Sure, he's the mascot, but he's never been playable and as other franchises with rotating casts have shown time and time again, the mascot isn't prioritized. I think Danganronpa can fit as a darkhorse very well but not Monokuma specifically

Want: 40% I like Danganronpa and it's overall aesthetic would be unique to Smash, especially the music, but I'm honestly not sure how I feel about Monokuma, I much prefer the idea of playing as the protagonists as they're similar enough to be alts a la Hero, but Monokuma feels like it's forcing a villain for the sake of a villain, even if he's the mascot. I also strongly dislike the idea of Monokuma using executions in his moveset, a suggestion literally everyone makes, as I feel that spoils too much due to 90% of the executions all being ironic yet fitting of who gets it, it's one thing to spoil **** like Fiora being a party member or the Masked Man being Claus, but spoiling who the culprits are in a whodunnit goes ruins the entire experience, I already knew who the killers were in 2 because I spoiled myself back when the game wasn't localized, thinking I'd forget by the time I eventually played it. Turns out I remembered it all anyway and I feel it's an insult to those who'd be interested in playing the games as Danganronpa typically enjoys throwing great curveballs. I'd still greatly enjoy the Spirits and music while the stage depends on how it's handled though so I'm still giving a fairly high want score despite what the writeup would have you believe

Soma max

 

[AirMac1]

I’m gonna abstain, since I don’t know enough about these characters, especially the second one, who I’ve never heard of before.

Predictions:
Reimu: 20%
Shantae: 37%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi Rep xMAX

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not rating yet, just a few mistakes I want to nip in the bud.

Plus FP2 was negotiated when these issues were relevant.

Not quite. Level-5's NA branch closed down over a year after FP2 was negotiated.

Chance: 0% Yeah nah, Level 5 is on it's death bed with dwindling sales all around and the US division shutting down entirely because of bankrupcy. Unlike other dead characters who managed to get in, Layton's not nearly popular enough to break the ice in that regard as his fan base has never come close to K.Rool or Banjo levels of vocal, hell, they're less vocal than Isaac fans too. It just seems like there's far too much against Layton.

Layton isn't a dead series by any stretch of the definition. It had its most recent mainline entry in 2017 and has received 4 ports since, one of them last year. The anime's also getting a second season. Castlevania got in despite being actually dead and not having as much demand.

Also the NA branch shutting down turned out not to be as big a deal as it appeared because it turned out Level-5 had been doing most of their localizations in Japan anyway. It doesn't suggest they've given up on the Western market, let alone that the whole company's going under.

 

[DaUsername]

Spoiler: Whoops

Gen 8
Chance: Abstain, but I still thinks it's pretty likely.
Want: 0%
Sword and Shield are terrible games and serve as great examples of how awful the game industry is now. It would be great if the "games" weren't represented in Smash. But it will probably happen anyway because of how successful the games were.
Abstaining from the other Pokémons.
Layton prediction: 10%
Monokuma prediction: 40%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x Max (Not counting extra noms.)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Not rating yet, just a few mistakes I want to nip in the bud.

Not quite. Level-5's NA branch closed down over a year after FP2 was negotiated.

Layton isn't a dead series by any stretch of the definition. It had its most recent mainline entry in 2017 and has received 4 ports since, one of them last year. The anime's also getting a second season. Castlevania got in despite being actually dead and not having as much demand.

Also the NA branch shutting down turned out not to be as big a deal as it appeared because it turned out Level-5 had been doing most of their localizations in Japan anyway. It doesn't suggest they've given up on the Western market, let alone that the whole company's going under.

I tried looking stuff up and turns out Ni No Kuni has a worldwide release this year but other than that I had to take a good look through like 5 titles with no WW plans, that's really not a good sign of a company and these issues started a few years ago. I don't feel like changing up the writeup as I started it when I posted the last one, so do I just add a disclaimer with an updated percentage?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I tried looking stuff up and turns out Ni No Kuni has a worldwide release this year but other than that I had to take a good look through like 5 titles with no WW plans, that's really not a good sign of a company and these issues started a few years ago.

Unfortunately this is how Level-5 has always done things, they withhold plans for worldwide releases for no reason. But it's been that way since I can remember, with Layton being basically the only exception.

I don't feel like changing up the writeup as I started it when I posted the last one, so do I just add a disclaimer with an updated percentage?

Sure, you can do that.

 

[fogbadge]

a true gentleman leaves no character unrated

chances 40% i can still see this happening layton seem like the sort of "surprise" character who could turn up. now financial problems may not matter from a number of reasons one being that it seems to have happened after the pass was decided. even then not knowing how much they would have paid to use him theres no way we could say it would help level-5. im just not sure we can fairly say it would be a factor. beyond that layton seems exactly the sort of 3rd party to inexpiably appear. now id say a probably plenty of others who are more likely but at the same time i wouldnt rule him out, cause everytime we think weve found a pattern to character inclusion it gets broken. well in my case the only patterns i can see would point to dead or alive.

want: 100% i love the layton games. i have mixed feelings to 3 parties ill admit but i would so love layton to be in the game. defiantly one of my top 3rd party choices. moveset would be unique, music would be good and stage would be interesting to see. as far as i go it would be a great inclusion with little to no downsides. thats all there is to it really, i love the character therefore id love him in smash thats how my support works.

now i am not a true gentlemen so im gonna leave this other one unrated. in other words abstain on battle royal in a school.

all noms to spirit events continue after pass

 

[Curious Villager]

Layton

Chances 20%
A small chance, but a chance nonetheless. Level-5 is probably one of the last few or so Japanese third party companies, if not the last one, that don't have any content in Smash whatsoever up to this point, be it a playable character, mii costume, spirit, or assist trophy, which is quite strange to see considering their tight history with Nintendo during the DS and 3DS era's. Sure, they might have had a more rocky journey during the Switch era, but I don't see any reason why Nintendo would deny them even so much as a small shoutout with spirits or Mii costumes...

Also, I don't believe the whole thing with the US branch will affect things much as far as this fighters pass is concerned, considering the whole thing was finalized an entire year before that branch shut down. Not to mention that Level-5 apparently went back to having other companies publish their games overseas again if that Ni No Kuni game is anything to go by.

As far as Layton's relevancy is concerned, his series last mainline game was back in 2017 with an entire anime series being launched a year after, and since quite a few of this game's DLC characters where most active from that time period as well, I'd imagine his series was at a comfortable place of activity back when the DLC characters where being decided on. Not to mention that the series has received 4 HD ports since then, the most recent one being just last year.

I guess it remains to be seen next year if Level-5 will do anything special for the series 15th anniversary and wether or not they announce a new game or any additional Switch releases. to know for sure what the series active status is then..

Want: 100%
I don't know what the exact chances are for him to be the final fighter in CP11, but at this point, I'd appreciate it if Level-5 got at least some sort of acknowledgement in the game before Ultimate comes to a close, be it Layton or otherwise ( notwithstanding...)

But at the same time, I don't know if I would actually want him to end up being the final character, as miraculous as that would be, considering the inevitable trash he'll probably receive from the Smash community for being the final character in the entire game for a long time to come, especially for being such a dark horse candidate these days...


Abstaining from Monokuma

Nom: E.M.M.I. x10

Prediction: Shantae (33%) Reimu (35%)

 

[DanganZilla5]

The cute, lovable, homicidal bear

Chance: 15%

So it finally happened. Danganronpa got ported to the Switch so there is actually a decent chance for it to get a rep. So the big question is would Nintendo be interested in it? Well Danganronpa has become one of the more popular visual novel series in the past decade and Nintendo and Spike Chunsoft has a good relationship. The series also fits in with the commonly-accepted idea that the last character will be a niche one. One thing that I can say is that Kazuya is a reminder that Smash often picks the main protagonist over the mascot so Monokuma faces heavy competition in that regard. But other than that, we just have to wait and see how much Nintendo promotes the Switch ports in the near future.

Want: 100%

No surprise here. Monokuma is one of my top most wanted. Danganronpa is a great series and it would look visually appealing and unique in Smash. Some people point out that Monokuma using executions in his moveset would spoil them? I kind of get that but I think there are plenty of executions that involve elements that don't particularly point towards who gets killed. I could go into detail but that of course involves spoilers so I won't go into detail unless if someone wants to press me, in which case I'll make a spoiler section. But back on track, I think Monokuma would be a very entertaining and fun character and the music slaps hard, especially Scrum Debate which is one of my top favorite songs ever. These are points I've made countless times so I won't go on a tangent but basically I would be mega hyped.

_____________________

Layton

Chance: 25%

To begin this rating, I'll point out something that I suspected others would bring up and sure thing it got brought up: Level 5 shutting down its NA branches. Guys, this is a total non-factor. 1. The announcement of that happened a year after the pass was decided. 2. Even if Nintendo got wind of it while deciding on the pass it wouldn't make a big difference anyway. According to what GoodGrief said, apparently Level 5 does most or all of their localizations in their Japanese branches so it doesn't seem like that they will completely abandon their NA audiences. As such I will not take this into consideration for this score.

Moving on, I still think Layton has a very solid chance. He has strong Nintendo history, Level 5, while not doing well these days, is still active and has had a very good relationship with Nintendo for a long time now, he has a game on the Switch (Granted it doesn't feature him but let's be real he would be the rep chosen for the series), and has the support to back him up with him likely doing quite well on the ballot. Granted the ballot hasn't been as much of a factor for the DLC as it was for the base roster, but we did get Banjo so it's safe to put it in as a factor. Really, he has a lot of things going for him and not a lot going against him. If we were getting more than one character then this score would be much higher.

Want: 60%

I recently got Diabolical Box and....haven't played it. This is something that is too common with me but anyway I would still be open to him. My best friend really wants him and he has vouched for the series and explained why its so great. I've seen some cutscenes and I did play a little bit of one of the other games. So despite my little experience with Layton I can confidently say that he would be a great choice for this game. While there are plenty of other characters I personally want more, I can't be mad and it would make my friend super happy.

Predictions:
Shantae - 18%
Reimu - 30%

Noms: Pyramid Head x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

Jupiter Ascending

Chance: 24%
What changed for Layton? Not much, if anything at all. He simply has an advantage because he fits with what the final character will likely be. Or rather, he's in the better echelons of what a final character would realistically be. He's from a smaller franchise compared to what came before, in a nicher genre. He's also the kind of character that would make more sense to reveal in a Nintendo Direct, as his appeal is to the Nintendo crowd.

Layton is in a decent position to have been chosen. He's the frontrunner, mascot, and most iconic character for Level-5, a company whose output has been mainly on Nintendo (if not exclusive, or even published by them). He's historically a popular character in the community whose peak was in the ballot days so Sakurai is likely aware. And he's got the credentials, being from the highest grossing visual novel/adventure franchise and one of the faces of the puzzle genre.

I've mentioned before why the whole ordeal with Level-5's NA branch doesn't matter so I won't repeat myself.

Want: 100%
I've run out of ways to express my love for the Layton series. So I'll just leave it at this: the games are great and the Professor's a badass.

Hot Topic Zero Escape

Chance: 4.5%
Danganronpa is finally getting ported to Switch. From a recent social media post by Nintendo (thanks Phantom for bringing it to my attention) it can be inferred that it's set for release in December and therefore squarely in a promotional position. It's up for debate whether Nintendo would've known about the ports by September 2018, but I guess it's within the realm of plausibility. They are, after all, Switch exclusive (mostly because there's no other system for them to go). However I feel like this is too little too late.

I don't really see any incentive for Nintendo to add Danganronpa. If you want visual novel reps you're kinda spoiled. For one there's Ayumi who is first party and just got two remakes this year. But then there's also Phoenix Wright and Layton. They're more iconic, more popular, their games sold better, they're more influential. Heck, Danganronpa is finished whereas Ace Attorney and Professor Layton are still ongoing (Ace Attorney has a game coming out next month! And more stuff has leaked!) so even in terms of sheer corporate synergy they trump Danganronpa.

I also cut half of Monokuma's percentage because at this point I can't even be certain he'd be picked as its fighter. Hero was damning enough but now we potentially have one of the most iconic characters in gaming skipped over for the dude who was the first protagonist. Who knows who Sakurai would choose for DR.

Want: abstain
I'm a fan of Danganronpa. I also don't care if it gets a fighter. If the implementation is good then sure.

The music would be great though. But then again, when isn't it?

Noms: Octoling xall
Shantae prediction: 28.76%
Reimu prediction: 14.46%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on both

Shantae: 25.83%
Reimu: 9.34%
Bandana Dee x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

One thing I want to clear up (because I needed it cleared up myself, heh): double days have a ceiling of 20 noms. That means that if you write the required 5 sentences per score (not per character), for every character of the day, that's 20 noms. For triple days it goes up to 30. Keep that in mind as most of the fixed schedule will consist of those!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Decidueye/Garchomp/Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon pre-Professor Layton/Monokuma

Mii Costume: 2B x305
Octoling x303
Junpei (Zero Escape) x285
Meat Boy x275
[Rerate] Louie x275
Senator Armstrong x245
Corvo Attano x240

250 - 201

Tetra x230
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x220
Gunvolt x220
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x220
Pyramid Head x220

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x187
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Ratchet & Clank x180
Boss: Rayquaza x175

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Monika x135
Echo (Bowser) x133
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Ori x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
E.M.M.I. x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Eggman x21
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Soma Cruz x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x10
[Rerate] Sora x9
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Lugia x5
Firebrand x1

Mii Costume: 2B cuts past Junpei and steals first place. Octoling shoots through Senator Armstrong, Louie, Meat Boy and Junpei to capture second place.

Pyramid Head cleaves through 200 noms.

Bandana Dee waddles past 50 noms.

Challengers approaching! They are E.M.M.I. with 30 noms and Lugia with 5.

 

[NintenRob]

Someone is nominating Lugia? Sure, why not.

Nominate Lugia x5 (and abstain obviously)

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on both.

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Layoton, layton, layton.

Ooooh boy, the more the time passes, the more i regret not playing your games.

Let me just repost what i said earlier:

Black Hat's Nicer Cousin.

Chance: 30%

As others have said, Level 5 has become an important Japanese Game Developer and managed to find footing outside of Japan. Yeah, they might not be iconic, but if SNK can be given a chance to get a character in Smash, i can't see why L5 can't. Yeah SNK has Latinamerica (assuming not everyone escapes from there) but Level 5 has Europe which is not surprising seeing the European influences of Professor Layton. I firmly believe that if they get a rep, it's Layton and no one else. Jibanyan's time has passed and his popularity in Japan is a shadow of his former self, and never catched on in any part of the west (because unlike PL, its concept is something only the japanese could truly appreciate) while Inazuma Eleven while popular is not exactly Smash material nor is it requested in the context of Smash, same goes for Ni No Kuni. Oh and PL is also the best selling L5 series by the way (over 17 Million units)

Layton was a very poppular request during the pre-Smash 4 days, despite the fact that Third Party requests in Smash during those days were actually pretty damn rare (especially compared to nowadays) and usually when it comes to Third Party companies, the character that gets in is either due to special request (Snake) or popular demand from the audience (Mega Man, Banjo) and Layton could easily go either way since Level 5's developers are fond of the Layton series due to its significance and the request for Layton, while far more silent than usual, are there.

The only reason i don't put him any higher is because his series is in a weird state right now. The series is not over, but it had a wierd period where it became silent from '13 to '17 only to finally get a game in '17......starring Layton's daughter, and it wasn't very popular so the series is in a weird state. Still, i firmly believe Layton is the only rep that Level 5 would chose, his legacy is too strong to ignore.

Want: 5%

...buuuuuuut i don't care about him. I can respect this character however. The narratives the series tackles, the brilliant game mechanics, the stylish art direction, and so on. It's no wonder this franchise has such a strong following, it even had movie that DIDN'T SUCK ASS.

Unfortunately for me, not only do i have no experience playing a Layton game, but the series is Puzzle Based, which is my kriptonyte. Plus unlike Lip i don't find his aesthetic interesing enough to be playable. I would be completely okay if he makes it in though, as i feel he deserves it.

I have to lower his chances to a mere 15% now. When everyone is possible, no one is likely, and while i think his merits are enough to consider him as a posible rep from a new company, i can't give a good reason to see him as a frontrunner, outside of the fact that that more niche franchises/characters are saved for the last reveals.

Updated Score:

Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

Predictions:
Reimu: 34.33%
Shantae: 35.69%

Abstaining on Monokuma's chances due to my lack of knowledge of the franchise, but from everything i have seen and read of it, it's the last type of game i would play on this earth, and the idea of a character like this one in Smash makes me sick to my stomach.

 

[Yiptap]

Nyohohohooo!
Chance: 15%
Is Monokuma likely? No, not really. But it's not impossible! Now that Danganronpa has an appearance on a Nintendo console, Monokuma is eligible to be added to Smash. The problem is that Danganronpa is still a fairly recent title, and adding a Danganronpa rep be hard to implement while being friendly for good boys and girls (remember, the game is about high school kids trying to kill each other). On the other hand, Monokuma is one of the more famous VNs out there (not THE most famous, just getting that out of the way). Plus, Monokuma could work as a shill pick. Oh, and Sakurai had praised Danganronpa before, just throwing it out there.

Want: 100%
Phoenix Wright is my most wanted character, being a fellow VN character like Monokuma. So why do I want Monokuma? Cuz Danganronpa rocks!... In my opinion. I've seen many arguments for not wanting Monokuma, and I'll be real, they are completely valid. But to be honest, I still want Monokuma. Could the protags work? Yes, but Monokuma could work better, at least for me (I saw Brawlfan1's Makoto Naegi moveset today, and it kinda sucked ass). Plus, the Danganronpa soundtrack slaps, just see Sari's post.

Abstaining on Layton, the only chance argument I have is that Level 5 is kinda dead, and the only want argument I have is that Layton could deconfirm Phoenix and Monokuma, my two most wanteds.

Noms: Meat Boy x All

 

[Commander_Alph]

Mascot character

chances: 10%

We already got the main trilogy game to Switch so that's a plus and it's pretty surprising that we never consider their contribution to the Mystery Dungeon game considering it has the same as KT's Musou game with various IP adapting the mechanic. giving Monokuma 10 because he's just a mascot character that barely does anything other than appearing as a generic enemy in Ultra Despair Girls an time and time again they always regarded as a second best choice after the main character as those are the people who's able to represent the gameplay. Now I've been seeing people comparing Monokuma to Pikachu with reasons that is really bad, he is more so Slime tier and Pikachu himself can represent the main gameplay of Pokemon as they are the ones that does the attacking while the trainer don't do anything and even with the inclusion of PKMN Trainer Sakurai still put much emphasis on their Pokemon with them there to represent the bond. Monokuma on the other hand barely giving the series enough justice, it basically gives a false information that the game is a glorified bloodfest to deceive the player while in reality Danganronpa is a game built with solving logic and sympathize with the other survivor and in some cases spent time together like in the soon to be release spin-off Danganronpa S.

want: Abstain

Abstain on Layton too, also forgot to mentioned PROFESSOR LAYTON IS A PUZZLE GAME, I'm bothered that no one pointed this out or I'm just really slow.

noms: Danganronpa Protagonist xAll

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Layton. I don't know how to rate him given the Level-5 situation. Like, I don't think it hurts him TOO much, but I also think y'all are downplaying how much of an impact it might have.

Monokuma

Chance: 20%
I'll say this, the biggest thing going against Danganronpa in Smash (the lack of Nintendo presence) has FINALLY been dealt with. Heck, I'm 90% certain we would've gotten these ports last year were it not for Covid. However, there in lies the issue of the matter. We don't actually know how far in advance this was planned, or more importantly, when did Nintendo become aware. As such, we can't say if it has the timing to make it in.
Want: 100%
To put it simply, Danganronpa is a great series. The music, the story, everything is top notch. This is all held together by Monokuma, a despicable yet lovable antagonist who steals every scene he's in. His wacky antics would make him a PERFECT fit for Smash, probably moreso than the main character(s). But honestly, I'm just glad more people will be able to play these games thanks to the Switch.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstain.

Noms: Corvo x5
Predictions: Reimu: 17.5%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Monokuma

15% Chance

3DSNinja , congrats, Danganronpa is finally on the switch. Now I can stop giving the franchise single digits in chance. Spike Chunsoft fits the bill for a new franchise to be added on. They are more on the niche side but not completely unknown, and they have been relatively loyal to Nintendo in terms of putting games out. Combine that with Danganronpa being their biggest series, I think if a Spike Chunsoft rep made it in, it would be from Dangers.

There are two avenues you could go with a Danganronpa character in smash. You would either go with one of the Protagonists, or Monokuma. Personally, I would prefer the latter. While obviously Monokuma is not the playable character and is mainly the main antagonist for about 90% of each game until case 6, I think at the end of the day Monokuma is who the average person would think of when they think of Danganronpa. Danganronpa may be relatively niche (note: the fanbase is growing, please play the games now before the fanbase gets worse), but its in the zeitgeist enough that I am pretty sure if Monokuma showed up, people would kind of get who it is.

So, Monokuma might be the choice, what do you do with him? Danganronpa is a visual novel, so you would have to think outside the box to make him work. Personally, I am a fan of having his moveset being based on the minigames that you play in the trials. Turning things like Truth Bullets, Cross Swords, or PTA into the basis of his moveset imo is a good touch. If you want to reference the despair Monokuma loves, you could toss in a few execution references to boot.

Overall, a solid dark horse pick for the last slot. I would also say if Danganronpa does not go on hiatus to keep an eye on this one for the future.

100% Want

Honestly, I enjoy Danganronpa enough for me to be happy with this. Do I have issues with the franchise? Yeah. DR3 the anime sucks and the only good things to come out of it were the opening and ending themes, DRV3 has a mediocre ending, and to be brutally honesty I do not have much of a soft spot for DR1 just because I do not like most of the characters. But DR2 and DRV3 had great casts, and I enjoy Monokuma. It also helps that we would get Climax Return in Smash which would be a banger. If I made a more objective want tier list, I do not think Monokuma would crack my top ten. But would I be happy if CP 11 was indeed Monokuma? I would be.

Layton

20% Chance

Layton in smash has been an interesting ride. He went from being one of the only popular third party choices in the ballot days, alongside Rayman, Shantae, and Shovel Knight…to quieting down a lot. Personally, I think this is for two reasons. First, the Layton franchise has slowed down, with its main output the last few years being a spinoff series staring Layton’s daughter and some Ios ports (which probably will get ported to the switch at some point). Secondly, Layton fans were just pretty chill, so they do not make too much noise.

Level 5, much like Spike Chunsoft, fits the bill for a smaller company to bring on board. Now, I know some people might bring up Yo Kai Watch, but I doubt it. First off, Yo Kai Watch bombed so hard in the States. There was a clear effort to bring it over, but it just never stuck the landing. Nintendo even tried pushing it themselves, with big skits like with Reggie, but at the end of the day the series just never took off in the West, despite being popular in Japan. When your franchise makes Dragon Quest seem mainstream in the West, you know things are bad. It also does not help that while Layton is beloved by fans…Yo Kai Watch and Jibanyan are not. RTC is not the perfect barometer, but Jibanyan is almost notorious for doing poorly on here in want, and he managed to end up in the bottom ten in want multiple times. If we get a level 5 rep, it would be Layton. His series on the DS and 3DS were well received around the globe.

Unfortunately, Level 5 is not in the greatest of shapes rn. Their NA branch closed down. While this is not a great sign as a whole, I think it is important to say that it is not the death knell some people might be worried it is. Ni No Kuni 2 came to the west, albeit published by Bandai Namco. Likely, this means that Level 5 will no longer be publishing on their own in the West anymore. After Yo Kai Watch bombed hard, I can understand that. Likely, we will be seeing games that Level 5 or someone else has interest in trying to push in the west get published by someone else. I could easily see Layton getting a trilogy of the IOS ports of the first three Layton games coming in the near future.

So, we have a relatively popular older request that honestly would line up well for a smaller Cp11. Call it a dark horse pick imo.

90% Want

Honestly, Layton fans, yall aight. Some smash fanbases I tend to find get on my nerves, particularly a few that were very active during the ballot days. But Layton fans have always been a chill bunch, and yall deserve someone to throw you a bone. Layton honestly at least feels like he should at least be referenced in Smash. To be honest, Layton is one of those third parties that honestly does feel like if they were first party, they would have been in by now. I know that I have been someone to call out that the “Nintendo All Star” label is dead and I could go on a whole rant about how it is unhealthy for speculation, but Layton honestly occupies that same niche to me that Banjo did or Phoenix Wright does now, a third party where honestly I don’t think of them that separate from Nintendo.

Octoling x 20

Ending the day now. We are taking a short intermission for Kazuya presentation predictions and satisfaction ratings for Kazuya after it airs.

Personal predictions:
Namco will get the lions share of costumes
I will guess that Namco is getting Jin and King as the other Tekken costumes.
Lloyd and KOS MOS will be Mii Costumed.
We will get a random Sega costume that will make us all go crazy.
Shovel Knight Deluxe Mii Costume.

 

[Perkilator]

Predicitons:

• History of Tekken
• Why Kazuya was chosen over Heihachi
• How the stage works
• Kazuya's full moveset
• Test run of Kazuya
• Song list
• Spirit Board
• Mii Costumes: Round 10
  • Probably Lloyd among them
  • Probably an indie Mii Costume as well
• Release date for Kazuya
• amiibo for Min Min and Steve
  • Maybe even a mention of a Sephiroth amiibo
• Harada crashes the presentation at one point (please do this)
• Memes. Lots and lots of memes.

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x3
[Rerate] Sora x2

 

[Sari]

Kazuya Presentation Predictions:

• Sakurai talks about why Heihachi wasn't chosen. Most likely a combination of Kazuya being more unique and Heihachi's VA passing away.
• The reasoning for Heihachi's costume being released with Min Min instead of Kazuya is discussed.
• Tekken gets the most music of any third party DLC series so far, not counting SNK.
• Mii Costumes:
  • Jin
  • At least one other Tekken character (King and Yoshimitsu are the ones I most see happening)
  • Lloyd
  • Another non-Tekken Namco character (KOS-MOS?)
  • New Deluxe costume (Shovel Knight?)
  • Also completely out there guess but... 2B?
• Kazuya releases in a week or less.
• Sakurai ends the presentation by saying "well, we're almost done! It's been a fun ride so far! Hope you enjoy the last character when we get to it!"

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10 (or whatever the max is for today)

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Predictions:

• history of Tekken (also mention that he considered Heihachi once in 4 and a tribute to his VO)
• Stage explanation
• Maybe Kazuya will demonstrate his moves against a 4 team of Ryu, Ken, Chrom and Lucina as a reference to Project X Zone 2 since all five were in that game as well
• Spirit Board (Heihachi will be a Legend Spirit)
• Song list (includes the Tekken 6 character select song in Heihachi’s Mii segment)
• Classic mode
• Miis: Lloyd, Nightmare, Xiaoyu, Klonoa, Monokuma, and a random Indie Mii with a song (that hopefully WON’T be a Gunner this time)
• Kazuya is available the same day after the presentation
• Min Min, Steve/Alex, Sephiroth Amiibo announced
• Announcement of the Final Video Presentation in August. Yes, August. And they’ll do another guessing game, this time for Splatoon. Or LoL if the Indie Mii is the rumored Hollow Knight one.

Nomination:
Octoling x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Predictions:
-Reasoning behind Kazuya's inclusion over Heihachi.
-Sakurai doesn't explain why he released the Heihachi Mii Before.
-Deep explanation of Kazuya's mechanics, taking over 5 minutes of the video.
-Stage demonstration.
-Kazuya will have the largest Music Pack of FP2.
-Mii Costumes: Lloyd returns (R.I.P) Jin, Kos-Mos, Paul Phoenix, and Ms. Pac-Man hat for a curveball.
-Sakurai says LOUD AND CLEARLY, that FP11 is it for Smash reveals.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Goddammit I finished up my Shantae and Reimu writeups.

As for what I expect, I see Sakurai giving a fun rundown on Kazuya, not showing off Electric Wind God Fist when showcasing how Kazuya works, a healthy amount of songs, closer to Terry tier than the other characters and I fail to see a world where we don't get Lloyd and Mokujin costumes

Soma max

 

[GoodGrief741]

I predict that Kazuya will be way too gimmicky for my taste and that the Mii Costumes will all be kinda boring.

Noms go to Octoling

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Predictions:

• History of Tekken and explaination of why Kazuya over Heihachi or Jin
• Deep dive into Tekken's and Kazuya's mechanics, easily the longest segment of the presentation
• Classic mode playthrough
• Music list is not quite as big as Terry's pack but still more than average
• Amiibos for and shown off
• Mii costumes: It's 100% Namco themed. Lloyd is a given. Special costume is Solaire from Dark Souls.
• Sakurai sighing and saying "one more left huh?" giving a small penultimate reflection on the roster

Noms go to Bandana Dee

 

[fogbadge]

im gonna abstain on the predictions, dont think im gonna watch this one.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Kazyua Presentation Predictions

• Sakurai goes into the history of Tekken and has a very good time ala Terry.
• Explains why Kazuya was chosen instead of Heihachi. 50/50 on if we get an explanation of why Heihachi's mii costume came early.
• Test run and stage presentation. Sakurai has fun with the character cameos.
• Sakurai covers Kazuya's songs. Has the second highest song count out of all DLC fighters.
• Sakurai covers the spirit board. Heihachi legend spirit.
• Mii Costumes! At least one or two Tekken costumes like Jin and Yoshimitsu, maybe three. Lloyd returns here, maybe some other Namco characters like Nightmare Prince of All Cosmos, Don-chan, or Chosen Undead. We get another Deluxe Mii here, we're due for one.
• Kazuya is available a week after the presentation.
• New amiibos!
• Sakurai ends it by explaining that FP11 is the final fighter, and the long journey it's been.

Nominations:
Louie x10

 

[Nemuresu]

My honest predictions:

• Sakurai starts explaining Tekken's importance in the industry and why he chose Kaz over his dad and his son.
• Sakurai showcases the stage briefly. Probably doesn't have more cameo other than Heihachi himself.
• Full moveset explanation for Kaz's moveset. I bet it will be lengthy due to the inputs.
• A brief arcade run. It's a given that at the very least, it will have stamina matches only.
• Kazuya's song list. Unpopular take: I don't expect him to come with so many songs. I think he'll have a set between 10 and 20 like other characters do.
• Spirit Board. Among my predictions would be Yoshimitsu (1-star), JACK (1-star), Armor King (1-star), Jun Kazama (2-stars, can evolve into Unknown), Craig Marduk (2-stars), Brian Fury (2-stars), King (3-stars), Marshall Law (3-stars), Paul Phoenix (3-stars), Jin Kazama (3-stars, can evolve into Devil Jin), Heihachi Mishima (3-stars) and Jinpachi Mishima (4-stars).
• The Mii costume set. I expect Jin, King, Yoshimitsu, Lloyd, and a pair of miscellaneous costumes.
• Kazuya coming a tomorrow or the day after.
• One more reflection about the roster and the last character

Nominations:
Ezio Auditore Da Firenze x15 (I'm gonna use my reserved nominations for him)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Kazuya coming somewhere around the nexxt two weeks.

Actually Nintendo warned about a new patch soon, indicating he'll be released the very next day

 

[Nemuresu]

Actually Nintendo warned about a new patch soon, indicating he'll be released the very next day

Oh yes, I did see the news on it, and the most likely outcome is that it will be like that. I will correct it now. Thanks.