Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 114 - Smash Run

TheDukeofDorks

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Old design or not, Tingle is a stage hazard who you can interact with, not just a cameo in the background. He can't really be replaced, and I can't see Sakurai removing him altogether if someone wanted to play as Tingle.
How dare you so rudely forget that David Jr. exists?!



But yeah, I don't think it's worth rating Tingle either. He's not the kind of character you go for when you've got a limited amount of character slots to work with.
 

Souldin

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Apparently the voting is still for Arle and Qbby... fair enough; I thought I was going to be too late.

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo series)
Chance: 7%
As always, 3rd party characters are voted significantly lower, as I feel it's a tougher and more limited bracket to compete for. Arle isn't without chances; she's very popular in Japan and is the face of a significant puzzle series in Puyo Puyo, but she is also a 2nd/3rd Sega connected character inclusion and it'd seem very odd for Nintendo to ignore their own character who fills in just about every criteria that Arle (the aforementioned Lip).

Want: 3%
I like Arle, but if we were to get Sega's Puzzle series star before we got Lip... I would explode with rage.

Qbby (Box Boy series)
Chance: 45%
I have to agree with Drawcia on this character, I feel a lot of folks aren't giving this fellow a fair chance. I think Qbby has a lot better chances of getting in than people give him credit for. Sure, he is a box with legs, but he can do a surprising amount of things. His box creation mechanic gives him plenty of possibilities for Smash and tilt attacks, with some very creative ideas such as obstacle creation or decent distance transportation attacks. Add to that, his 3rd game's trailer (oh yeah, Qbby has 3 games, which got a compiled physical release, and an amiibo to boot) shows plenty of special moves he could utilises: Bye Bye Box Boy trailer!

Want: 50%
I am always a fan of seeing new series gain playable representatives, and whilst not high up on my list, this adorable and creative character would certainly be pleasing to see. There are many I'd prefer over him, and I would be fine if he were an Assist Trophy instead, but I can see Qbby being a truly fun playable character as well.

Nominations: x10 Fatal Frame Protagonist (are we still allowed 10 nominations? If not, just count this as 5 please... oh, and please do inform me when the 10 nomination votes have ended)
 
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Geno
36.41% Chance (Previously 27.31%)
45.40% Want (Previously 43.75%)


A very controversial character, I have not seen a day this controversial in a long time. At least there is a general rise in chance for him.

Dillon

19.08% Chance (Previously 28.22%)
46.82% Want (Previously 50.34%)


I did not expect this sharp of a decline. Dipping below 20% chance and a slight decrease in want makes the armadillo seem like roadkill.

Steve
17.54% Chance (Previously 22.34%)
12.38% Want (Previously 14.33%)

Well, he took a hit if I have seen one. Under 20% Chance and an even lower want score than before.

Chibi-Robo
12.74% Chance (Previously 21.26%)
49.93% Want (Previously 55.47%)



Competition for spots took a number on Chibi Robo. At least people still like the little guy.


OK now some brief scores for these two

Arle Nadja
15% Chance

Popular in Japan helps. PPT helps. But I still can't see it personally

100% Want

Puyo Puyo is great. Honestly PuyoPop Fever is one of the best Gamecube games and if you disagree you hate fun.

Qbby

Abstain Chance and want

Rest of calcs coming out today, predict Leon and rate the concepts of a RH Newcomer, Arms Newcomer, and a Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer
 

Opossum

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Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 85%, Want: 100%
Chorus Kids were planned for 4, and people who think Gematsu was a lucky guess are lying to themselves. The series has more than earned it at this point and even had a release right around when the roster was decided.

Alolamon
Chance: 90%, Want: 100%
I'm confident we're getting a Pokémon newcomer. You are not able to over-represent the biggest media franchise on earth. They're not gonna pass over the twentieth anniversary titles. **** yeah Decidueye would be great.

ARMS
Chance: 50% (0% for base game, 100% for DLC, so I factored in both), Want: 100%
Big new IP. It's a lock for DLC. Gimme toothpaste boy. Smash should always be open to new Nintendo IP anyway.


Predicting a 12.3 for Leon Kennedy
Nominating Reinhardt Trophy x5
 

Lampy

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Rhythm Heaven newcomer want: 10%
I've fallen out of the franchise. I wouldn't mind seeing a newcomer from it get in, but I don't really care if it doesn't happen.

ARMS character want: 1%
While ARMS probably had a concept art or two at the time the roster was finalized, it was an unproven IP and I doubt Sakurai would've wanted to take risks with it. Very likely for DLC tho.
ARMS character want: 55%
I generally hope the roster is going to be a mix of old and new rather than just old fan favorites. An ARMS character would fit the bill but I don't particularly care about the series.

Gen 7 mon newcomer chance: 100%
New Pokemon every game is a trend that I can't see being broken, and I don't think the number of Pokemon on the roster means anything, especially on the franchise's 20th annviersary.
Anyway, the stars are aligning for Gen 7 because the project plan was finalized before Gen 8 was even a concept (presumably). I think we're looking at a Greninja situation despite OR/AS being the lastest game at the time.
I personally think we're getting either Decidueye, Incineroar, or Mimikyu.
Want: 100%
Normally I'd say "depends on who that is" because I have an obvious affinity for Decidueye and I've expressed my disdain for Mimikyu in the past, but I want the roster to be a mix of old and new really badly.
Also, I can't deny that despite Decidueye being my top choice, there are a lot of unique Pokemon options in Gen 7... But I'd prefer Decidueye over anyone else.

Tails x5
 
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Rhythm heaven

Chance 40%

There was one meant for smash bros 4 from a datamine either lucky guess or something but megamix was released right around the roster for smash ultimate was decided the reason it's not 95% is the ballot is probably the focus of choices for this but highly confident not all of them will be from the ballot

Gen 7

Chance 70%

They are not out of the running I mean like I said it's most likely not completely ballot focused but by default the choice for this one is the same way greninja got in im not naming a Pokémon because i end up with doubts whoever I pick (I do have a choice but I'm keeping it to myself) but another reason it may not be a gen 7 rep it seems they are focusing on kanto again but that didn't happen while choosing characters and that gengar is the only choice left from that gen for playable
 
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AlphaSSB

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ARMS Newcomer

Chance: 5% - Smash Ultimate's project plan was finished in 2015, which was likely way too early for Sakurai to really consider. anyone from ARMS. The only way I can see an ARMS newcomer would be if Nintendo pushed for it, or if ARMS's developers caught wind of a new Smash game and managed to convince Sakurai. Otherwise, I think a newcomer is incredibly likely for DLC, but I don't see it with base game.

Want: 50% - Depends on who exactly is being added. Spring Man is one of my most wanted characters, but I'd be disappointed if anyone other than the series mascot made it as playable. Ribbon Girl could potentially work as an alt, though.


Rhythm Heaven Newcomer

Chance: 30% - Evidence shows that there was a Rhythm Heaven character planned for Smash 3DS/Wii U at some point during development, but obviously did not come to fruition. Assuming the newcomer was Chorus Kids, it may have been because of technical limitations, so they had to be scrapped. Technical limitations should be out of the way, with Ice Climbers returning, so it really just depends on if Sakurai wants to revisit the concept or not.

Want: 25% - Depends on who, and even then, there's no-one from Rhythm Heaven that really holds my interest. At least they're Nintendo.


Gen VII Pokemon Newcomer

Chance: 75% - I'm not going to lie when I say that there's a decent chance we won't see a Pokemon newcomer. We got four Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Pichu all returning, and so Sakurai may have decided to prioritize other series or characters. Of course, it IS Pokemon, so it's still likely that he'd set aside a Pokemon newcomer like he did for Lucario and Greninja.

Want: 50% - Depends on who exactly is being added. Decidueye and Lycanroc would both make for great additions, but anyone else and I'd be disappointed. Incineroar is the only one other than Decidueye and Lycanroc that's moderately interesting.


Nominations: Deconfirmed Characters DLC x5

(Basically, deconfirmed characters being promoted to playable characters through DLC.)
 

Indefinite Minimum

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Arms Newcomer
Chance: 50%
Arms is a new IP like Splatoon but less popular. It could go either way.

Want: 25%
I'm only interested because playing as a stretchy arms man sounds fun.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chance: 5%
The big rhythm heaven inclusion last game was a Smash Run enemy.

Want: 25%
There are many potential waifus they could chose from.

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance: 30%
Gen 8 is the only thing standing in its way. Unfortunately its a pretty big thing.

Want: 50%
I want to play as the Sniper from TF2 aka Decidueye

Nominations:
Dragonite x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Rhythm Heaven is among one of the biggest Nintendo franchises in Japan. Ever since the franchise's late debut on the Gameboy Advance's life cycle in 2006, the franchise has gained a large, Japanese fanbase. It continued to grow bigger with the debut of the sequel Rhythm Heaven on the Nintendo DS in 2008. Due to the success of the first game in Japan, the sequel managed to receive a global localization. The DS iteration managed to sell over 3 million units total, which marked the peak of the franchise. Rhythm Heaven continued to perform greatly with the Wii sequel (Rhythm Heaven Fever) and the 3DS sequel (Rhythm Heaven: Megamix). The cult fanbase for Rhythm Heaven outside of Japan grew greatly around the time of Fever, spawning hundreds of fan-remixes and memes on YouTube thanks to the mini-game of Ringside. The dedication of Rhythm Heaven fan-content still happens to this day. With all of the fan-content and Japan success, you would think a Rhythm Heaven character would get in Smash by now. Well, not exactly, but there is a ray of hope that a RH character was planned way back in Smash 4.

Before E3 2014 came, there was a Gematsu leak that would leak a second batch of newcomers for the roster. One of these choices were the Chorus Kids. Since the leak, there have been many debates and controversy on the inclusion of Chorus Kids. The negative reception soon spread like wildfire once they were not present in Smash 4's base game and DLC selection. With such reception, the Smash fanbase soon grew silent on the possibility of Chorus Kids, even in Smash Ultimate speculation to this day. But, ever since that leak came, there has been a growing amount of supporters for multiple Rhythm Heaven characters in general. Fan-content would soon multiply thereafter. Thanks to the leak, a bigger Rhythm Heaven fanbase outside of Japan soon sprouted.



I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.

Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. He already saw the potential of utilizing these specific characters, likely utilizing moves inspired by several rhythm mini-games with a play-style that involves rhythmic timing. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around. Sakurai likely had a full move-set concept of the Chorus Kids way back in Smash 4, based on this article here:

"Nintendo Dream: When not you are not developing and there is a new title or character released, you are not thinking about “How about that one in the next Smash Bros?”, right?

Masahiro Sakurai: Absolutely not! I’m always thinking that doing Smash Bros. again will be impossible. Impossible, impossible…is what I always think, but I ended up making it again (laughs). But once I decide to do it, I’m very fast about creating moves and such. For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking “What do you think?”.

Nintendo Dream: That’s incredible speed! By the way, when deciding on which characters to use, are you looking into unreleased new games?

Masahiro Sakurai: At the very beginning I did that. This time our project-proposal is dated May 2012, at that time all characters were decided already. Then as production moves on we will say “We won’t put that character in” and cut out low-priority-characters."

Assuming he made concepts for move-sets for every Smash 4 newcomer planned, I feel it is EXTREMELY likely that the Chorus Kids concept will be revisited to be implemented for Smash Ultimate (Basing it on the Gematsu leak being true). I personally think a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, their massive gameplay potential with incorporating rhythm mini-games into a cohesive move-set, Smash Ultimate including Ice Climbers (Making multi-characters like Chorus Kids a possibility), and Megamix's JP release being nearby the time the first Smash Ultimate proposal in December 2015, now would be BEST time to include them.

------------

I will be honest with you. I went back and forth on this choice multiple times before E3 began. I thought that an ARMS character’s best scenario of getting in the game is DLC, but then I went back to him possibly being base game. With ARMs being a new IP from last year, Sakurai would most likely wait until the IP has a notable degree of success before being added in Smash Ultimate. But, considering the game was announced to be a huge hit on July 2017, there is a chance that Sakurai would look at that news and be comfortable with adding Spring Man, allowing an ARMs character to be in the base game in the middle of Smash Ultimate’s development to help keep ARMs promotion coming (Noting Nintendo’s competitive support for ARMS as a relevant example). However, I do think this would put Spring Man as a lower priority unique newcomer, in the same sense as Bowser Jr., who was nearly cut from Smash 4’s roster due to time constraints being an obstacle.

This scenario would be a similar situation to Sonic back in Brawl. However, Sonic was added late for very different reasons like immensely high popularity that would call for an urgent development schedule change. Would Spring Man be worth the cost of more development time to get him in the base roster? Or would an ARMS character be something that is better saved as a DLC addition? Perhaps Sakurai’s flexibility and skills for making Smash games will allow a “New IP getting its own character in the middle of development” case to happen. Sakurai could be convinced by Spring Man's potential as see that as one of the primary reasons to add him late in the game. These kinds of additions can happen even if the chances are rare, based on this statement here:

Sakurai: It really depends on the situation. For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash.

This statement gives a very small opening, but it gives enough room for Spring Man to be added. Otherwise, Spring Man can still be added as DLC. Spring Man will be in Smash Ultimate’s roster, it is just a matter of when and if we get Smash Ultimate DLC at all. In this case, I am banking on Sakurai not having enough development time to implement Spring Man in time for the base roster. The 2015 project plan just makes me think that an ARMS character was never considered at all.

-----------

x5 Hanafuda character
 
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CometX-ing

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Arms, Rhythm Heaven and Gen 7 newcomers

Chances: 5% 40% 70%
Arm has a pretty low percent chance of getting in Smash Ultimate given that it came out after Smash's project plan was complete by 2 years. It's possible that Sakurai could have gotten info on the characters early but that is not very likley for a series that was brand new at the time. Wouldn't want to end up adding a character from a series that flopped. Maybe it can get represented as DLC, but as far as base games goes it has little to no chance.

Rhythm Heaven is a proven series with many games under it's belt. It is wholly possible that it could get represented. It would also have the potential to produce an interesting moveset, which Sakurai looks for in characters.

Pokemon always gets at least one new rep and Gen 7 Is the most recent Generation of Pokemon, with Generation 8 nowhere to be seen. We don't even have a single piece proper information on the game. And even if they release some information before release I'm pretty sure Smash will come out before Gen 8 anyway. I also doubt we will be getting yet another Kanto Pokemon just because of the Let's Go games.

Want: Abstain on Arms and Rhythm Heaven, 80% Gen 7
I haven't played Arms or Rhythm Heaven, so I have no particular interest in either of their representation. If they got in I wouldn't be bothered and the same goes for if they didn't. Gen 7 on the other hand I have played and love a lot of the Pokemon in it. I have a particular Pokemon I want but I be happy to see it represented in general.

Nominations:
Primarina x5
 
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Gen 7 mon
Chance: 80%
Knocking off 20% due to us already having so much Pokemon on the roster and me not entirely knowing which direction Sakurai will take with the newcomers but it will still happen more likely than not.


Want: ABSTAIN

Arms
Chance: 95%
No shot at the base game but I factor DLC into these. Can easily see DLC characters being used for promotional stuff


Want: 10%
I still have no interest in ARMS and its characters.


Rythm Heaven
Chance: 90%
This is one of the biggest Nintendo franchises not yet represented in Smash, if not THE biggest. Megamix also fits the timing of the project plan and I'm also of the believe we we're originally supposed to get RH representation back in Smash 4.


Want: 90%
Have beaten Megamix since we've last rated this and I officially am a fan of the series now. So bring on the Chorus kids or Karate Joe or maybe even both.

Leon: 14.36%

Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices x5
 

AquaSol

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ARMS Newcomer: Not too sure about this one, but I think that Spring Man warrants a position. Not much to say here

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer: Chance @ 80%, Want @ 60%

I've been on this board for a few weeks now, and I think that Rhythm Heaven is the most slept-on franchise here. I see many roster predictions that do not have a slot for it - and I really do think that we're getting one. Although we don't have hard evidence to validate Gematsu, it's difficult to say that the predictions were "just lucky guesses". The Rhythm Heaven icon in the character section, the random abundance of Rhythm Heaven trophies (more than most other miscellaneous series), and the Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run all point to a Rhythm Heaven rep initially being planned. It was probably the Chorus Kids, meant to act as an Ice Climbers +1-style character. I think that they are happening this game for a simple reason: Sakurai probably told the Rhythm Heaven developers that he intended to include one of their characters in SSB4. I think that any developer - especially smaller ones like them - would be ecstatic. For Sakurai to say that, then take the Chorus Kids out, then exclude them in a sequel that's not hindered by technical limitations would be a slap in the face. We had the Forbidden Seven in Brawl and Dedede/Mewtwo/Bowser in 64, but they were all from large franchises that already had playable characters. Rhythm Heaven still has nothing, and I question if Sakurai would do that to a smaller-scale development team. My guess is that he told them something like "Chorus Kids aren't happening this game, but we'll make them work for the next".

Generation 7 Newcomer: Chance @ 80%, Want @ 60%

It'll most likely be Mimikyu. Nintendo/The Pokemon Company had a plan when they created Mimikyu, and Sakurai was probably let in on it. The whole "I want to be like Pikachu" backstory was an intentional way to make it popular. Unlike Zoroark, TPC never had to shill Mimikyu for it to become so liked. I still remember when it was revealed to the public in 2016, and can't recall another Alolan Pokemon getting as much love on social media besides the starters. Casual fans, non-gamers, and even genwunners seemed to like its design and emphasize with its backstory. Fast forward one year, and Mimikyu was, and still is, the most marketed Alolan Pokemon. A quick look on Amazon shows that Mimikyu products sell more than Decidueye, Lycanroc, Incineroar, etc. It was voted the second most popular Alolan Pokemon in the Japanese popularity poll - Rowlett was #1, but I doubt most of its popularity transfers to Decidueye (much like Braixen and Delphox). TPC purposely designed it to be popular, and Sakurai probably knew.

I can't see why people say Decidueye is objectively more popular than the other two final starter evolutions. In reality, he has as much shine as Incineroar and Primarina. He got Pokken, Incineroar is in the anime/movies, and Primarina is the third most popular Alolan Pokemon in Japan.
 

DaUsername

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ARMS
Chance: 0%
Let's be real here, there's no way that "character from brand new IP that is over a year away from release" was on the project plan.
"But what about Greninja?"
The main difference here is that Greninja is a character from Nintendo's second biggest franchise while ARMS is, once again, a brand new IP.
"Sonic??"
We'll probably never see a Sonic situation again now that DLC is a thing. Why delay a game to add a Cool New Character when you can have all the time you want after the game releases?
In short, it's not happening. (Until DLC, at least.)

Gen VII
Chance: 65%
It's happened every other game, but since theres already 9 Pokémon, it's a bit less likely than before.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 40%
Fake leaks aside, RH is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises with no playable characters in Smash, so I can see one happening.
Want for all three: N/A

Leon prediction: 4%
Noms: Ken x10 or 5 or whatever the current max amount is.
 
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ARMS Newcomer
Chance: 2% for Base Roster, 95% for DLC -
The games' director basically said there was no chance, and the project plan was finalized before ARMS was released. There's always the chance Sakurai could've had insider info or heck, even a little extra time to throw one in after all the veterans and previously planned new characters, but with a game so filled with content, I doubt it. Just about a lock for DLC though.
Want: 95% - I may not have played ARMS much myself but I recognize a cool gimmick when I see one.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chance: 50% -
There's evidence to the fact of a Rhyhm Heaven fighter being considered, and with a fairly recent release and making a new for themselves, I could definitely see them showing up, but there's a reason it was passed on which we currently don't know. Sakurai might not go back to the idea.
Want: 100% - I actually really like the series. Even a stage would be nice, but a character would make me quite happy. At this point, I'll take pretty much anyone.

Gen VII Newcomer
Chance: 65% -
We always get a new one, but we have so many characters from this franchise already in the roster... Who can say?
Want: 100% - Well, specifically if it's Decidueye. I wouldn't mind Incineroar either, but I'd prefer my starter.

Nominations
Sakura Shinguji x5
 
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Theree times a charm!

Rhythm Heaven:

Chance: 85%

Rhythm Heaven is one of the most likely new franchises to get added with a playable character. Now to be honest, I think it’s possible that Sakurai might’ve decided to scrap the Chorus Kids and go with a different character like Tibby who was essentially the main character of Megamix back when the roster was decided, and have him summon other characters for some of moves and if the player presses the button at the right time, the more characters get added onto that move and more damage they rack up.

Want: 70%

I’m neutral on Rhythm Heaven, albeit I wouldn’t care if a character does or does not come from that series. But I wouldn’t necessarily want the Chorus Kids, but instead the actual protagonist they decided to make in Megamix.

Gen 7 Newcomer:

Chance: 95%

A Pokémon from the Alolan region is guaranteed seeing how it’s one of the highlight games coming out during the project plan, and seeing how Sun and Moon was the 20th anniversary of the series, it was a big deal.

Now the Pokémon likely to get added is really between Decidueye, Incenroar, and Lycanroc. Anyone else, really isn’t likely to get in.

Want: 90%

I LOVE a lot of the Gen 7 Pokémon, they’re all so diverse and cool looking. The Alola region was my first Pokémon experience and Ultra Moon was the first Pokémon game I bought and played through.

Decidueye or Lycanroc will be my personal picks that I would be happy to get in (more so Lycanroc). Incenroar, not so much, and Mimikyu although I like him, is definitely not someone I want in Smash.

ARMS:

Chance: 10%

ARMS was released too late in development to be considered for Smash, so I don’t think they will be added into the base game seeing how it’s also a new IP.

DLC though, in my opinion are basically a lock. If Sakurai announces DLC for this game, Spring Man WILL be added as a playable character, seeing how ARMS was successful when it launched.

Want: 80%

The concept of an ARMS character (more so Spring Man) seems to be a very fun idea. So I would be glad and would like the idea of an ARMS character being playable.

Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana
 
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Pokémon!
Gotta catch em all!


Chance: 95%
Want: 50%

Perfect timing, and with 807 mons at this point, they've got plenty to choose from. Only issue is that a lot get pushed into the background. Pokémon is the only series that has suffered permanent cuts every game so far, and cutting characters is not cool. I'd hope we can get some of the cuts (Squirtle and Ivy pls) back for DLC, but I can most definitely see them adding someone from the newest generation.

Most likely candidates I see are:
  • Decidueye - Popular, starter, and cool design. I'm not going to buy into the whole "muh grass type" argument, since type effectiveness was removed so there's no reason for Pokémon of several different types. Now if they brought back the Trainer with type effectiveness, then it may be interesting.
  • Mimikyu - At least this generation's Pika-clone got a lot more traction than Plusle, Minun, Pachirisu, or Dedenne, most likely due to an interesting backstory. A ghost-type fighter could have some fun moves (yes, Decidueye is also ghost, but is better known for grass and archery, and Mewtwo only uses a single ghost-type move)
  • Incineroar - A little on the nose, really. It is a wrestler archetype, but it also screams a bit furry Captain Falcon clone.
  • Buzzwole - To bring in the Ultra Beasts, and nother major fighter-looking thing.
I don't think I'd mind, but I really don't like losing the mons we have. I know there are a lot of people who are annoyed by the number of Pokémon characters in Smash, but like I said, there are 807 now. How many unique characters are in the entire Mario series?
Gen 7 still has a chance, but I can't ascribe to the theory that "Sakurai always adds a Pokémon" since Sakurai also will never add a character as big as Ridley. We seem to be breaking a lot of rules here already. With three Pokémon returning after a 10+ year absence, we're also hitting Pokémon critical mass. I don't think this is as guaranteed as it's been before. Still likely, but no longer a given.

If we get one, I'm hoping for Decidueye, but I got the Pokémon that I most needed already :007: Any others will just be extra fluff...

Chance: 50%
Want: 40%
ARMS (all in caps, in case the topic was too subtle)

Chance: 50%
Want: 10%

New IP, and they hyped it up a lot. Seems a bit new for that, but I do remember them discussing the concept when Switch was announced. And then...really not much noise on that front.

I could see them adding a rep for the game, but that would really just translate to Little Mac with range. The game itself never caught me, and since release, I honestly don’t hear much about it anymore.

Gotta say though, that concept weirds me the F out. What, like some people are born with extendo-limbs instead of arms? How F’d up is that?! And then these people are predestined to be in a fighting ring? What, mom has the baby and the doctor’s like “Ma’am, your son was born with noodles for arms so the government will take possession of him and train him to be a springo-boxer.

Maybe I’m just overthinking this.
Woo, this one's changing a bit.

ARMS is most likely way too new for Smash, considering we've got conflicting reports of the project proposal starting or initial steps in Dec 2015, with the roster definitely finalized by the following Summer. There's no way that Arms was considered in that timeframe. Great chance for DLC, but not likely in the base game at all.

I have warmed up to Spring Man though. I still haven't played, but I kinda would like to see him in Smash. Less so any of the others, though...maybe as alts, but he is kinda the face of the franchise...

Chance: 1%
Want: 40%

Rhythm Guys

Chance: 50%
Want: 0%

Blah blah Gematsu blah...

Even when they were leaked, I rolled my eyes. The RH series has very few consistent characters, so I can’t see how they would possibly work out.

Yes, the series is popular in Japan, but still...

Now RH does have some cool songs and would make an excellent stage, so I’m all for that. But a fighter? I get it, WTF characters are fun for a bit, but after three days, not so much. That was my experience with the Wii Fit trainer - an initial “that’s so funny and bizarre!” which quickly turned to “why is this stupid character here?” once I started playing.
This one goes in my folder of "not everything needs a playable character - some would be best represented by stages"

RH has a rotating cast, and most of the character designs are simplistic (and to me, boring). I know Gematsu was identifying the Chorus Kids (and Chrom), but I really think that RH would make a great stage, akin to Wario Ware where you had to do a bunch of rhythm-y gimmicks every so often. Hell for the competitive crowd, but would be really fun for casuals.

I don't think a character needs to be added just because their series is hot, or just because they have some potential gimmick. Leave us with a rhythm stage, and that's that.

Still, popular leaks will significantly boost a character's popularity, so I bet they got loads of votes in the ballot that they wouldn't have if Gematsu hadn't mentioned them....just like Simon now. Not that he's a bad choice, but his name came up a lot more frequently once Vergeben happened.

All I need is for some convincing fake leak to mention Dovahkiin so I'm not the only one on this site who supports him... Prefereably right in time for them to plan DLC...

Chance: 40%
Want: 0%

Prediction for Leon: 19.4%
Nom: Tails x5
 
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Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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The three most likely concepts imo.

New Pokemon: 90% chance / 70% want (as long as it isn't Lycanroc or Mimikyu I'm fine).
Pokemon company always wants one of their new characters in the game, and Sun and Moon are one of the biggest games coming out in the inter-Smash years. I would honestly be baffled if we don't get one.

Rhythm Heaven: 70% chance / 85% want
Fun group of characters that would make sense to revisit as a concept. A timing based character would be unique and they make the most sense to do this compared to Paper Mario or Geno.

ARMS character: 75% chance / 100% want
So here's what we know in terms of timings:

- The first Smash proposal was completed in late 2015. Notice that this isn't the final proposal, which SourceGaming has stated we don't have a date for yet.
- ARMS was advertised as a flagship Switch title, getting a special trailer in the Switch reveal in January 2017. This suggests that it had been in development for a while, so development overlap between ARMS and Smash is a definite possibility.
- The Switch was being worked on as early as 2012 in terms of concepts. By 2015, surely everyone at Nintendo knew the direction the company was going for new consoles, The "NX" was announced in 2015, right before the Smash proposal was first drafted. Sakurai may have saved a spot in the proposal for a character from an early Switch game, knowing how significant this console would be.

Really, I think everyone saying "ARMS is too new!" isn't looking close enough. The timings totally lineup in a way similar to Robin and Awakening.
 

Esquelen

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Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 55%
I think that Rhythm Heaven has the necessary fame to be a fighter in Smash Bros, most people who are not aware of video games know Rhythm Heaven for the memes of Ringside, Glee Club, SilvaGunner, minus8.

It also has a lot of fans, in Japan and in the other countries that are dedicated to making customs of the Remix of Rhythm Heaven, fanarts and I think I do not have to mention the people who try to pretend that they join in Smash as the Smashified of Rhythm Troupe or the fanmade trailers that a person with Karate Joe has made and more RH characters.

The person who says that Rhythm Haven is a dark franchise is very wrong, even sometimes I made drawings of the Chorus Kids and I have been colleagues from my school saying that it sounds like a game of the Nintendo DS.

Along with the rumors that there have been of the Chorus Kids, those popular characters were made by Smash Bros, without being in Smash Bros ... at the moment?

It was discovered that an HR character was going to be in SSB4, but the reason was not known, unlike other people who believe that they were eliminated due to limitations, I think it is because their moveset would be some based on Rhythm Tengoku since there are many iconic minigames of the game such as Space Dance, but at that time those minigames had not gone out to other places in the world and its moveset could be unknown, we already know how Sakurai is with the exclusive characters of Japan.

Now that Rhythm Heaven Megamix has come out that has the most iconic minigames of Rhythm Tengoku, there should not be any problem with adding a RH character,

So I will put 55% for the doubts, but I have a good feeling with a character from RH.

Want: 100%

Edit: I only put Rhythm Heaven because it is the one I am most interested in commenting, later I add the others.
 
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ARMS Newcomer

Chance - 1% (base game)

Likely came around too late to be considered, especially considering how new IPs generally have to prove themselves or build a foundation for themselves before getting into Smash. Ex: Olimar didn't get in Melee, Villager didn't get into Melee / Brawl, Inkling didn't get into Wii U / 3DS; you get the picture.

I do think an ARMS newcomer is EXTREMELY likely for DLC though.

Want - 5%
Bleh. I played the ARMS Testpunch and found it terribly boring. I also struggle to see how they could make a long ranged boxing character very fun, both to play and to play against. I feel like an ARMS character would just be Little Mac but trades a lot of speed and some power for a lot of range. They could probably find some way to make it interesting though.
Rhythm Heaven Newcomer

Chance - 40%

There's seemingly a lot of focus on some more popular character choices this time around for Ultimate, so I think their chances have been hampered a smidgen, considering they're not exactly topping popularity polls or anything.

However, they still have lots going for them, like being worked on for Smash 4, as well as having Rhythm Heaven Megamix launch around the time of Ultimate's development.

Want - 95%

A Rhythm Heaven newcomer is my most wanted newcomer.

Rhythm Heaven is easily one of my favorite Nintendo series, and I would absolutely love to see it get some love on a grander scale. My ideal pick would of course be Karate Joe, but I'd be fine with the Chorus Kids, the Tap Trial Girl, or hell, even Tibby. I hate Tibby, but I'm desperate here. Plus, it would mean we would get some of the killer music tracks the Rhythm Heaven series has, and I'd love that.

Sun & Moon Pokemon

Chance - 60%

53% for my past scores of Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc combined, as well as an extra 7% for any other possible character. I feel like people are really sleeping on the possibility of Incineroar, but that's just me...

If you want to read something a lot more in depth on the topic, just read my previous post on the main three:
Preface

I'm making a preface, because a lot of this applies to all three of the Pokemon.

We know for a fact that Game Freak chooses which Pokemon are included in Super Smash Bros., not Sakurai or anyone else on the Smash team. We've also seen in the past that the Pokemon included in Smash generally fall in line with either their involvement in the anime:
Or their general popularity:
  • Pikachu being the mascot of the franchise
  • Mewtwo during the late 90s / early 2000s
  • Charizard, and the other Kanto starters to a lesser extent
It is these ideas of popularity and anime involvement that tie together to become what are some of the most marketed Pokemon of each generation. So I feel like it is generally safe to assume that the other three should follow the same guidelines.

Decidueye

Chance - 3%

I'm going to be killed for saying this here.

In terms of popularity, Rowlet does great! First place! Tons of merchandise! But Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
In terms of Decidueye's popularity, he falls behind the other Alolan starters, with Primarina, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and Incineroar all out placing it.

Well, what about in the anime? Once again, phenomenal placing by Rowlet! Look at all those episodes! But once again, Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
Decidueye appears in one episode. One. In the episode, he gets crushed by Incineroar.

There's no movies, no role as one of Ash's star Pokemon, nothing. Hell, from leaked artwork, we've seen that Ash's Litten will be evolving into an Incineroar, while Rowlet remains a Rowlet. Its claim to fame is that it is related to the most popular Pokemon of the generation. Decidueye is riding off of Rowlet's popularity, and nothing else. It would honestly make more sense for Game Freak to put in Rowlet over Decidueye.

Something also worth noting: Decidueye's inclusion in Pokken DX was not chosen by Game Freak, as Smash Pokemon are, but rather by the developers themselves.

Because of this, I don't think Decidueye would be chosen for Smash, unless Game Freak REALLY wanted to promote Pokken Tournament DX over the main series games or the anime.

Want - 75%

Which is a total shame, honestly.

Mimikyu

Chance - 10%

A lot of my thoughts haven't changed. It has popularity, but that's about it. However, I also feel like Pichu's return is also pretty detrimental to its chances, considering we'd then have three Pikachu-esqe fighters in the game, FOUR if the Alolan Raichu Pokeball Pokemon is to be counted. Granted, we have three Links already, but that's just because we've had three Links in the history of Smash. It just doesn't seem likely to me, especially because unlike the Links, Pikachu / Pichu and Mimikyu would likely play very differently.

Want - 30%

Lycanroc

Chance - 40%

His chance went down a bit personally just because of limited newcomer space this time around. But for the most part, my thoughts remain the same.

Want - 0%
Want - ABSTAIN

It depends. We could get Decidueye and I'd be pretty happy, we could get Mimikyu and I'd be content, we can get Lycanroc or Incineroar and I'd be pretty disappointed, or we could get Alolan Exeggutor and I'd be over the moon. Like I said, it really depends.
 

Souldin

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Arms Newcomer (Arms series)
Chance: 32%
Timing seems to be against the ARMS series, and the fact that it's so new that it has only one game, but it otherwise has a lot going for it in terms of getting a new rep. A big new Nintendo IP, one pushed by Nintendo a lot and could serve as a Switch focused representing IP, along with characters with fighting game aspects that could allow them to easily translate into Smash plus changeable ARMS giving varied possibilities for special moves.

I think it's best chance for a character is still DLC, which it is extremely likely for, but it's chances lower quite a bit for the base roster due to just how new it is.

Want: 52%
As mentioned, I am always a fan of new Nintendo series gaining representation. I would prefer the series to have more than one game under it's belt before gaining playable status, but I'd gladly take a one-game Nintendo IP gaining playable representation over even more 3rd party inclusions any day. Thinking back on it though, I feel I should have given Qbby a higher Want score... oh well; too late now.

Rhythm Heaven newcomer (Rhythm Heaven series)
Chance: 72%
I believe Rhythm Heaven is currently one of the most likely Nintendo IPs to gain playable representation, only second to Dillon's Rolling Western (I'm still sticking to that mindset) at this point. Whilst not confirmed, there were hints of a Rhythm Heaven character being considered for SSBU. Those rumours could potentially have no grounding in reality, but the existence of those rumours increased awareness of the series and I feel helped improve the overall popularity both in and outside of the poll. The series is still continuing and a Rhythm based fighting style sounds the sort of interesting mechanic that Sakurai would love to have a go at implementing.

A Rhythm Heaven rep also fits nicely into my 1 console focused IP rep, 1 retro IP rep and 1 handheld focused IP rep (in this case, Rhythm Heaven) theory.

Want: 72%
I always like to see Nintendo IPs gain playable representation and a friend of mine back on Miiverse was a huge fan of the series; as well as a huge fan of the idea of Rhythm Heaven gaining a playable rep. We both preferred the idea of Karate Man, but Chorus Kids or someone else could do nicely provided a Rhythm mechanic is well implemented.

I've only played a little bit of the games themselves, but my short time on the Wii game was a lot of fun. It has multiple titles and could offer unique move-set potential so I'm all on board for greater Rhythm Heaven representation; including a playable character.

Gen 7 Pokémon (Pokémon series)
Chance: 42%
I shall go against the grain (assuming so, I haven't read other people votes yet, want it to be a pure judgement from my mind first) and give a lower rating for Gen 7 Pokémon playable rep chances. This is not without reason, as many people seem to assume there will be no Retro newcomer or WTF newcomer, I believe there will be no Gen 7 newcomer. If people are assuming the ballot is king when it comes to character's likelihood, then that significantly nerfs Gen 7's chances. Many Pokémon characters have already returned in this game, giving it a healthy representation, and honestly; the Pokémon series has a tendency to over-focus on Gen 1 (a fact I dislike quite a bit) and that is true even in SSB. Heck, timing wise, the upcoming games are even further Gen 1 focus, so I see Gen 7's newcomer basically being ignored in favour of the returning Gen 1 and 2 Pokémon characters.

There is no clear choice for a Gen 7 Pokémon; it's incredible how divided the SSB community is with who to pick, and I believe if any SSB tradition is broken; it'll be this one. Still, Pokémon is... well, Pokémon; so even my scepticism towards a Pokémon newcomer puts it at a good 42% chance of getting a playable rep.

I could go into my thoughts why specific Pokémon Gen 7 reps are unlikely in my eyes, but I shall save that to if we get to rate them specifically.

Want: 10%
While I would love the Pokémon series playable representation to be more spread out, I am also annoyed by just how much Pokémon playable representation there is. Again, I like series representation balance, an admittedly foolhardy thought when it comes to SSB but one I cannot detach from my heart. A Pokémon newcomer of any kind would be disappointing to me, even more so in that there aren't exactly many Gen 7 Pokémon I like... nor the Gen 7 games themselves. Out of the considered likely Gen 7 candidates, I do like Mimikyu, but I wouldn't want him as a smasher.

Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist (I am fairly sure the 10x votes are over now... and I'll be sticking to nominating Fatal Frame Protagonist because few others are doing so).
 
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Banjo and Kazooie
25.97% Chance (Previously 17.35%)
70.00% Want (Previously 61.29%)

Noticeable rises on these two. Their want score only went up to a flat 70 (Yes i double checked it it came out to that). As for chance, a focus on fanservice is in favor of the bear and bird.

Andy

9.27% Chance (Previously 9.49%)
47.09% Want (Previously 50.20%)

Slight fall in chance that is almost nonexistant, a slight fall in want too. I

More to come, hungry.
 
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arms character = 25%

Unlikely, even Yabuki thinks it's too early, and I have no reason to consider that a ruse statement.

Want 60%

Split because Spring man's boring compared to the other ARMS heroes, but the others could have loads of potential, Misango, Max Brass, Helix and Mechanica can all offer something much more interesting than spring man but it's gonna be spring man so whatever. If you actually get to choose your arms before the match starts that would be sick

Pokemon character = 80%

The only constant that beats FE, pokemon seems to be in line to get a early preview pokemon like how greninja was chosen, I imagine Sakurai was shown the starters, Mimikyu and Lycanroc, and while any of these but primarina all have a good chance, i'm going to go with mimikyu.

want = 50%

there's enough pokemon, but unlike fire emblem, pokemon hasn't had any ****shows like fates and has loads of cool monsters so i'm cool with another. I saw an idea for mimikyu that involved being able to crate shadow mimics of the enemy character that copy your moves, that's a cool idea.

Rhythm Heaven character = 60%

The idea may have been ditched for real, but RH has kinda installed itself as a great series now, out of all the unrepped nintendo series this is the biggest hole. I'm expecting Marshall going solo as a game and watch/duck hunt type deal where he uses multiple sources for attack

want = 70%

RH is a good series that i'm not getting somewhat fed up of so I really want to see some more of it. I don't really have much to say other than this is a good one.
 
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Erimir

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I'm going to do a new thing where I just remark on Echo Fighter potential without any detail for most character ideas. It's worth getting into detail in some cases, but most of the time it's pretty obvious. I'd also say that I'm guessing Sakurai is aware of how many Zelda fans feel about Falcondorf, and you'll note that there are no clones that aren't from the same series other than him. I think Echo Fighters have to be from the same series OR truly be extremely similar.

ARMS newcomer
No Echo potential. Otherwise, seems plausible, it's new IP, they have ready-made movesets since they're already from a fighting game, and the game has done pretty well.

On the other hand, Ryu is the only character from a true fighting game at the moment (and he's kind of the quintessential fighting game character) and Sakurai has previously expressed some antipathy to the idea. Punch-Out!! isn't really a traditional fighter in the mode of Street Fighter/Mortal Kombat/Marvel vs Capcom/Tekken/etc., but Little Mac is the only other character that might qualify. ARMS also might be too recent to make the release roster (if there is DLC, they have a decent chance).

It really could go either way. It wouldn't be fanservice like adding Ridley and Daisy and such. But the Inklings got in despite not being longtime fan desires (although the big success of the Splatoon games plus interesting moveset possibilities made it inevitable). Promoting new IP is still something they'd strongly consider.

On the other other hand, the Inklings were already in a plausible position for Smash DLC, and they ended up holding out and adding them for SSBU instead. That's something that could happen here as well. So for the next Smash game, an ARMS character would have an even better chance, particularly if it gets a second entry.

ARMS character chances: 50%
I can't decide if it's too new, if Sakurai still has a feeling that fighting game characters should generally not be added, or if the game is successful enough that they'd put a high priority on it, vs. some of the more fanservice options with long-desired characters. Slash how many unique newcomers we'll really get.
ARMS character want: 45%
I'm mostly indifferent.

Rhythm Heaven newcomer
Again, no Echo potential. The Gematsu leak seems to have been legit, and Chorus Men were mentioned. And there are some elements in the game data that point to it really having been planned (altho a stage would also be a reason for a series symbol). So they may have indeed been considered. But we don't know why they ended up not being in the game. Was it simply time constraints and RH being low priority? Or was it that the moveset ideas ended up being unworkable? Were they cut for technical limitations like the Ice Climbers? Or did they consider them and ultimately decide they didn't make the grade? Or was the leaker's info simply wrong because either 1. they threw in false info for fun or 2. their source threw in false info for fun?

Which one it is has big implications for how likely a RH character is for this game. Cut for time means that they have a good chance - some of the planning is already done, and they might still consider it a good character. They might end up being low priority again, or decide the series hasn't lived up to what they thought it would (only one entry since SSB4, that got lower sales), so it's not a slam dunk. If the moveset was unworkable, Sakurai might give it another shot, but he might have simply moved on and considered that settled. Ridley had the benefit of strong fan demand pushing a reconsideration. He could still consider another RH character, of course. If it was technical limitations, they'd have an even stronger chance of being included than any of these since probably the most work would've been completed. While DLC would've given a second chance if the reason was time constraints, they may have decided they wouldn't sell as well (of course, that would also be a reason not to include them in general...).

Anyway, I don't think there's a really strong case for Rhythm Heaven aside from the Gematsu leak. The games have decent sales, but I'm not sure they have a really standout character and as a result no single character seems to be highly requested among Smash fans (but they might consider RH characters together for thinking about how popular the series is). A rhythm-based moveset does not appeal to me very much and seems like it could either be really overpowered (keeping the rhythm means you can keep a combo going, resulting in another Bayonetta-type character with long combos) OR underpowered (getting the benefits of rhythm requires too much commitment, makes you predictable). Either way, it doesn't sound appealing to me. But it could certainly be different from other fighters, so maybe Sakurai would like the idea.

It's worth noting that there's some evidence that Dixie, Toon Zelda/Sheik and others had some development work done but ultimately have never made it as characters. And also that King Dedede was planned for Smash 64 AND Melee, but it took until Brawl for him to be included. Previously being planned often leads to inclusion in a later installment, but isn't a guarantee for the next one, and their time may never come.

RH character chance: 60%
The Gematsu leak is responsible for most of this. They aren't beholden to previous plans, so they might just decide against it or decide they don't have room for them. And without knowing the reason why they were cut, we can't say how likely previous planning makes them. If they were cut for technical limitations, it's highly likely. If they were cut because they ultimately decided the moveset couldn't work or that they weren't a good inclusion, they'd be very unlikely to get in this time. But they definitely have a good chance.
RH character want: 20%
I don't like the idea and I don't like that type of game.

Gen 7 Pokemon
Many options with high Echo potential. Well, we have gotten one or more new Pokemon in every installment. It continues to be a juggernaut only rivaled by the Mario series, so promoting it is a big deal and it has a lot of fans.

On the other hand, there are more limited slots this time and we're getting revamped Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur as returning veterans. But Pokemon is probably the most likely series to get a newcomer aside from maybe Donkey Kong (owing to DK being neglected and the most underrepresented series, given that DK games have around the same amount of sales as Zelda!)

However, they don't have to promote the latest Pokemon generation every time. After all, Pokemon Trainer got in despite representing Gen 1. But he got in simultaneously with Lucario, which did represent the latest generation. So I mean, chances are very high, but there's nothing stopping them from breaking the pattern.

Gen 7 Pokemon chances: 91%
With slots more scarce than ever, and the Pokemon roster already being its biggest ever, the chances for Pokemon to not get a newcomer are the highest they've ever been. And if they're planning DLC, a Pokemon from this or the next gen would probably help sales of that, but might make them decide against a newcomer for the release roster as well. That said, the chances of Pokemon not getting a newcomer are pretty low. There's also a slight chance they decide to use a Pokemon from a previous generation or, even less likely, put in an as-of-yet unreleased Pokemon, which would also not be Gen 7. (Greninja caught us by surprise, but X&Y at least released before Greninja was even revealed, so I doubt that we'd get an unreleased one.)
Gen 7 Pokemon want: 48%
I'm pretty indifferent as I don't play the new Pokemon games. There are so many options that you can't say it would be good or bad without knowing which one they're using.
 
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Kotor

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Arms Newcomer

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

Maybe it's better off they wait until DLC. The one benefit I see is that Arms roster is complete. Instead of defaulting to Spring Man or Ribbon Girl, they can just pick among the most popular Arms fighter. Spring Man could still happen but you never know for sure. Beyond that, I don't own Arms. The trailers didn't impress me, and I'm not gonna spend $60 on it. From what little I played from my friend's copy is good enough for me.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer

Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

Apparently the Chorus Kids were planned according to the Gematsu Leaks, but I guess 3DS rejected them. Probably wasn't the best idea to pick a trios character as the Rhythm Heaven newcomer. Same as Arms. Never touched a game in the series. I'm only familiar with the Chorus Kids because of Gematsu.

Gen VII Pokemon

Chance: 80%
Want: 60%

Well we are getting Gen VII Pokemon in the form of the Poke Ball. I don't think Pokemon having 9 characters now should be used as a point against adding someone from Sun & Moon. Each generation introduces a brand new cast of characters. A character-rotating franchise like Pokemon should be exempt from this "Each franchise can only have X amount of characters total for each iteration of Smash" rule. Pre-E3, nobody complained about adding one more Pokemon newcomer, but they were very cut happy in regards to Fire Emblem's roster. Most people I saw said that Pokemon is one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, and for that, it was excused. I often wondered what everyones limit was for Pokemon characters were (6 was certainly seen as too much for FE). I guess the answer for Pokemon is 9. As for who it could be, the popular picks remain largely the same. Personally, I want Incineroar.

Nominations
Rowlet x5
 

Opossum

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And there are some elements in the game data that point to it really having been planned (altho a stage would also be a reason for a series symbol).
Just wanted to point this out, but the symbol data was found with the characters, not stages. Stage-only icons like Wrecking Crew and Wii Sports were in a separate section.
 
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ARMS Newcomer:
Chance: 10%
As far as the base game goes, I don't think they're making it in at all. The project plan was completed before the game's release which mirrors a similar situation with Splatoon during Smash 4's development. The creator(?) of the game did say that an ARMS character making it in would not be likely at all. Although, there is a slight chance that Nintendo would want to push their new IP through one of their flagship titles. However, due to the reasons listed before I seriously doubt they're making it in, alongside the fact that Sakurai never adds a character towards the end of development, with the exception of Sonic which was only a one time thing.
I think they're practically a lock for DLC though.

Want: 70%
I'm all for a character getting into this game as a long range melee character, alongside all the different gloves and weapons that each character has could make for an interesting moveset. It would also help showcase one of Nintendo's newest IP's in a while which would be great for the longevity of the series itself. So I'm completely here for an ARMS rep if we receive one..

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:
Chance: 70%

I'm sure many are familiar with the Gematsu leak, and that I very much believe it was a draft of an early project plan for Smash 4. With the only notable missing characters being Chrom and the Chorus Kids, with the former Sakurai did say was considering adding and even created a moveset for. I, like many others, believe these little guys were cut due to hardware limitations that were on the 3DS like the Ice Climbers. This also coincides with the fact that there's an Rhythm Heaven symbol datamined from the playable characters section, more Rhythm Heaven trophies than any minor series represented, and the Sneaky Spirit being an enemy found in Smash Run.
So with that, and the fact that Rhythm Heaven: Megamix came out in 2015 around the same time that the project plan was being finalized, and I think Sakurai would enjoy the idea of creating a rhythm based fighter, which outside of DK's old final smash, we don't have anything like that. I hold a strong belief that a Rhythm Heaven representative will be extremely likely to make it within this iteration of Smash Bros. As to which character may appear, it could be the Chorus Kids, Tibby, the protagonist of Megamix, or even Karate Joe.

Want: 100%
Rhythm Heaven is one of my favorite Nintendo series and I think they're due for some representation in Smash Bros. I think Sakurai could create a very entertaining and interesting character utilizing some music or rhythm mechanic into their movesets. While Chorus Kids would be my personal pick, I'd be fine with the wide variety of characters they have to offer.

Gen 7 Newcomer:
Chance: 55%
I think a new Pokemon character has an odd chance of making it in. We already have Pichu and Pokemon Trainer back in the mix, which added three Pokemon back into the game, and I think Sakurai may recognize that we're getting too many of them which may make him hesitant to add anyone from Sun and Moon. However, Gen 7 was the anniversary and celebration of Pokemon's 20th, he may feel more inclined to add one to honor that in some regard. Also TPCI is very overbearing when it comes to their inclusions.

Want: 43%
While I wouldn't mind their inclusion, I'm not exactly too keen on the idea of having so many Pokemon added to the roster, despite Gen 7 having some designs I very much enjoy. Also I feel that many Pokemon that are popular in Gen 7 would be at home as a Pokeball Pokemon , rather than a fighter.

Nominations: Ayumi Tachibana x5
 
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Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
512
Rhythm Heaven rep
The likeliest series to gain representation, bar none. Sakurai already has a moveset ready (and yeah, I’m talking as if the Gematsu leak is verified because let’s be real, it’s true), the series has only gained more support. It’s also long overdue and Chorus Kids and Karate Joe both exude potential.
Chance: 90%
Want: 100%

The Pokemen
Chance: 15% base, 20% DLC
I really can’t see it happening. People say Zelda won’t get a newcomer because it got Young Link back and a pretty big overhaul. People say Fire Emblem won’t get a newcomer because it’s overrepped. Pokémon is overrepped and gets Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur back, and people think there’s still going to be a newcomer from a game that hadn’t come out by the project plan’s timeframe? No way. I can’t see Sakurai pulling another Greninja, particularly in a game about fanservice. You risk a backlash (something he already experienced with Corrin).
As for DLC? Who knows? Half the fanbase hates Lycanroc, the Smash fanbase doesn’t seem to see the potential in Mimikyu, and nobody outside of the Smash bubble seems to give two ****s about Decidueye. There are other candidates, for sure, but nobody seems to look at anyone other than the big three.
Want: 50%
On the one hand I like most of the possible new reps, and think Gen 7 deserves a newcomer due to how well received the games were and how well they sold.
On the other hand, I really hate the idea of adding another monster-of-the-week with no enduring popularity, and I feel like that will end up being the case with these guys (despite me liking them).

ARMS rep (but really Spring Man)
Chance: base game 10%, DLC 100%
Maybe Sakurai saw the potential in a drawing, but otherwise, we’re paying for toothpaste guy.
Want: 100%
I’ll gladly pay up.

Leon prediction: 15%

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5
 
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Joined
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Messages
2,768
Location
Australia
Interesting day

ARMS:
Chance 15%
It is very new, even the developer said so, but this smash game does seem to be going through a different development cycle then normal with it using an altered engine rather than a brand new one. Maybe he can fit on in last minute like Sonic? I think it's possible
Want 90%
I say YES! I'd love to see how Spring Man works and music would be great! A stage too please

Gen 7 pokemon
Chance 40%
I've never felt so little confidence in a Pokemon newcomer as I do now. As of now, the game has a whopping 9 characters. 8 of which are fully unique and Pichu appears to be a semi now. That's a lot, if it wasn't for Pkmn Trainer, you wouldn't even be able to fit them all in an 8 player match and I'm not sure how to feel about that
Want: 60%
I generally feel less need now. We have pretty good generation representation across the board now. Gen 1 still has a lot. But from Gen 2 we have Pichu, Gen 3 the pkmn trainer designs (notably Leaf), Gen 4 Lucario and Spear Pillar, Gen 5 Unova Pokemon League and Gen 6 Greninja Prism Tower and Kalos Pokemon League, and that's not even touching the numerous pokeball summons. But of course I'd still be happy with a character from Gen 7. Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Tapu Koko, Silvally, and Ultra Beast. I'd be satisfied with almost any of them. But I'm also satisfied without them. BECAUSE GRENINJA IS BACK BABY!!

Rhythm Heaven/Paradise
Chance 60%
A lot of evidence points to one being planned for the last game, It's still receives games to. Mechanic wasn't that long ago, I definitely think it's getting something
Want 70%
I'm curious what it has to offer, and it show off more of Nintendo. It will take a while to get use to it being called Rhythm Paradise though

Prediction Leon 8%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x3
Daroach x2
 
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Isaac: Venus Adept

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 31, 2015
Messages
118
ARMS Newcomer: Chance: Base-36% DLC-75% Based on the project plan I'd assume that ARMS missed the mark for the base roster as well as the comment from the developer saying that ARMS is too new to be considered for Smash. I do think however, that an ARMS rep is highly likely to join the roster as DLC due to the success of the game being apparent to the team at that time.

Want: 72% ARMS is a fun and incredibly unique game with fun characters and the long reach gimmick they have as well as the multiple gloves they can possess will make a cool character indeed. However, there are other older characters whom I prefer that have been deserving to be in Smash for a long time and as fun as ARMS is, I find it a decent game, not amazing but still good so I don't have a big attachment with it.

Rhythm Heaven Rep: Chance:80% Out of all Nintendo IPs that haven't been represented in Super Smash Bros, the most notable ones to fans are Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Rhythm Heaven, Panel De Pon and Sin & Punishment. Out of all of these a Rhythm Heaven character seems extremely likely as Rhythm Heaven beats the competition as it has more relevancy with the release of MegaMix and the NDS game which sold tons of copies (3.12m according to VGchartz). Sakurai could also see a Rhythm Heaven rep as more unique due to implementation of a Rhythm Based mechanic to make them standout. There is also the infamous Gematsu leak as well as Smash 4 datamines that prove that a Rhythm Heaven rep being considered by Sakurai was highly possible

Want:78% My favourite thing about Smash is seeing less popular IPs being represented. Although I completely suck at Rhythm Heaven, I think the games are masterfully made with a wacky cast of memorable characters and I'd love to see them join the roster. They aren't at the top of my list but I have no doubt they would be one of the most exciting and unique newcomers to come to Smash

Gen 7 Pokemon:Chance:85% Considering how Greninja was chosen in Smash 4 through design documents, having a Gen 7 Pokemon in this iteration is a definite possibility this time around. The popular choices I've seen are Decidueye, Lyanroc, Mimikyu and Tapu Koko and they all seem to stand out with unique moveset potential. I would've considered it a shoo-in if it wasn't for the fact that we have so many Pokemon in Ultimate already and the grass starter argument for Decidueye is invalid because of Ivysaur. However this issue can simply be ignored due to the fact that Pokemon is one of the biggest franchises ever made and due to the recent surge of interest for the series a new Pokemon character will probably be highly desired by Sakurai

Want:68% I love the heck out of Pokemon but I won't be as excited for yet another Pokemon joining the roster over other character I believe deserve a chance in the spotlight. However the Gen 7 Pokemon are some of the most unique and interesting Pokemon imo and they have the potential for awesome moveset
 

DjinnandTonic

Smash Apprentice
Joined
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Messages
158
Location
Nagoya, Japan
3DS FC
0619-5629-0198
ARMS newcomer:
Chance: 10% base, 80% DLC
Want: 100%
I REALLY hope it's DLC, actually, because they seemed to put a lot more effort into the look of the DLC characters. And an ARMS rep would work best if you can swap their look between -at least- Springman and Ribbon Girl. (Personally hoping for Minmin, Ninjara, and Twintelle as costume swaps, too... so... DLC is the best bet for such robust costume choices.)

Rhythm Heaven newcomer:
Chance: 40%?
Want: 30%
Eh. I'm intrigued at the idea of what a Rhythm-game-inspired moveset could look like in Smash, but honestly none of the character designs in RH appeal to me at all.

Pokemon newcomer:
Chance: 70% base, 90% DLC
Want: 100%
More Pokemon is always good. Gen 7 in particular has some of the best designs in the franchise. I'd take Decidueye over all of them, but Mimikyu and Lycanroc are just as cool. You'll notice I did not mention Incineroar. That is intentional.
If by some chance we get a Gen 8 pokemon as DLC, I just hope it's not a Fire or Water starter.
If none of the above, transforming Eevee please.

Noms: Ken Masters Echo xhowevermany
 
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TheDukeofDorks

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 9, 2018
Messages
166
ARMS Newcomer:
Chance: 2%
Even before we knew that we were going to have limited roster slots I rated this low, but now I think any base game chance for an ARMS character is dead. ARMS would have missed the project plan by a LOT, and even if Sakurai had known about it, why on earth would he have included a character that he had no way of knowing if it would be well received?

I'll give it a 2% pity score in case Nintendo insisted he help promote their new game, but even then I think it's unlikely.

Want: 0%

ARMS didn't appeal to me in the slightest, and I dislike adding flavor of the month characters.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:
Chance: 15%
This one is tricky. We know for a fact that a Rhythm Heaven character had work done on them, otherwise a series icon wouldn't have appeared in the game's character files. But they were clearly a low priority for inclusion, as, well, they didn't make it in the game! So... why would they be a priority now? Nothing has changed about the series since Smash 4, and the bar for entry has gotten higher this time around!

Sakurai's considered one before, so it's perfectly possible he will again, but I expect them to be passed over again.

Want: 100%
A rhythm based moveset is one of the most intriguing concepts for a Smash Brothers character, one that I would love to see fully realized.

Gen 7 Newcomer:
Chance: 30%
Well that certainly took a nosedive...

I certainly think a Gen 7 character is still a possibility, but it's nowhere near the guarantee it once was, for the simple fact that we're not getting many newcomers. We're having to ask questions as to how Sakurai prioritizes his patterns for adding newcomers. How important is a retro rep? A surprise character? We don't know! And would he even pick a Gen 7 Pokemon? If he's wanting to appeal to the fans desires, what if he picks whichever Pokemon scored highest on the ballot? We don't know! And then we have the fact that we have NINE Pokemon characters in the game, almost of which are very unique fighters. Sakurai might not even bother with a new Pokemon this time around.

Want: 40%

Honestly, I kind of want to see a non-Generation 7 Pokemon make it's way into Smash Brothers, just for the surprise factor. Plus, when comparing generations I'm not the biggest fan of the designs of Gen 7.
 

MasterWarlord

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 24, 2008
Messages
2,774
Location
Not in the target audience demographic
Spring Man Chance - 0% base 50% DLC: He's very likely from DLC but by that point, Arms might have come and gone. Design document bans him from the base game. DLC is quite competitive and is likely to be fanservice based.

Spring Man Want - 28%: I like ARMS. Spring Man as a generic Dhalsim archetype would be a fun playstyle. I don't like generic main characters so I can only get so excited about him. Spring Man is obviously what this slot would be, I'm not going to entertain it being a character I would actually want from ARMS.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer Chance - 17%: This series lacks in fighters despite deserving a representative. The samurai, the karate master, and the wrestler could all have sets since they look like they could fight, but it would have nothing to do with the source material. It's all on Chorus Kids having been (presumably) considered for SSB4. Chorus Kids would presumably be a multi character fighter like Ice Climbers, and given 3DS blocked ice Climbers but they're in Smash Wii U, Sakurai could maybe come back to Chorus Kids.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer Want - 0%: I like the series but I don't want a fighter from it, it just doesn't seem like a fighting series to me. This might be higher than 0% if the character we'd theoretically get from it wouldn't be Chorus Kids, that sounds really bland to me.

Pokemon Newcomer Chance - 50%: This is the most likely advertisement slot for the base game bar maybe Elma or Isabelle. The main issue is this slot is ferociously competitive between Decidueye and Mimikyu, and to a lesser extent Incineroar. There is no obviouos answer for this one, especially considering when the design document came out. I am a firm believer in Lycanroc being too late.

Pokemon Newcomer Want - 75%: I only want Mimikyu or Incineroar. Decidueye/Lycanroc puts this down to 0%. Maybe not an outright 0 in Decidueye's case, but the fact he blocks Pokemon I actually want means it's not reaching double digits.

Nominate Fawful x5
 

VexTheHex

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
160
ARMS Character
Chance - 35%
I highly doubt we will get anyone in the base roster as they'd be really banking on ARMS being a hit early on. However, I could see an ARMS character being put in for a slot in development for DLC or even a late addition if they had time or someone else was a fluke.
Want - 100%
I really like the love and detail that went into the cast. Spring Man from head to toe looks well thought out color wise, detail wise, etc. I really appreciate the cast and what he could bring to the roster. He'd fit right in.

Rhythm Heaven Character
Chance - 40%
A series that has stayed floating and has a leg to stand on. It's not a giant like Splatoon, but it's still likely good enough to place a spot. But it could get passed up for the bigger and badder characters people have been clamoring for.
Want - 20%
Not really into the cast for this. Chorus Kids would be my pick over Karate Joe though.

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance - 54%
Still one of the most likely additions people can count on, but the return of Ivysaur, Squirtle, Pokemon Trainer, and Pichu had to take some time that could lead to Pokemon having already had enough for this cycle. But it's still a huge series, one of the biggest so it may get that extra love anyways.
Want -100%
Even though Pokemon has a decent chunk of roster space, I feel they bring the largest punches onto the roster than any other series has managed to do minus the clone. :ultpichu:

:ultpikachu: Electric rat darting about
:ultjigglypuff: Diva puffball slapping and singing
:ultmewtwo: Abomination with psychic powers
Bulky dragon spitting fire
Small turtle spinning and spitting water
Plant frog thing whipping people with vines
:ultlucario: Anubis fighter thing
:ultgreninja: Water ninja frog sneaking about
Only Mario has really rivaled Pokemon with having a more varied and exciting cast. While people may feel burnt out on these Series, I welcome them as long as they bring characters that really look and feel different from each other. I'm going to root for Incineroar over the other popular picks. His concept artwork showed a lot of character and finesse that I feel the others may be lacking. I supported Mimikyu more when Pichu wasn't in the picture, I can see the wear down of 3 Pikachus as i personally dislike the 3 Links. Decidueye and Primarina could also work out and be interesting, I'm just feeling the fire wrestler cat the most now.

Nominations 5x Incineroar
 
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Joined
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Messages
2,620
Location
France
3DS FC
1848-2225-1295
NNID
FinalSmashGamer
Switch FC
SW-1567-9471-9502
Rhythm Heaven newcomer
Chance: 25%
Want: abstain

ARMS newcomer
Chance: 15%
Want: 45%

Gen 7 Pokémon
Chance: 65%
Want: 75%


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Leon prediction: 13.21%
 

MacDaddyNook

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 24, 2015
Messages
423
Rhythm Haven

Chance: 30%
A supposed leak, that had stuff proven false in it, claim we would get them in the previous title and we didn't. They could have been considered but any developement on them is unknown. Either way, they have a chance but not a guarantee, especially with a reduced newcomer roster.

Want: 60%
A character who is focused around inputting actions in a rhythm is just quirky enough to be fun.

------

Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance: 50%
If we get a Pokemon, it will be from Gen 7. But Squirtle, Ivysaur and Pichu may have taken away the need for a new Pokemon fighter.

Want: 80%
As long as it's not the owl, I'm fine with a new Pokemon fighter included.

------
Arms
Chance: 10%
Still a bit too new and I don't believe it was a massive hit like Splatoon. It's chances for DLC are good, unless we don't get DLC

Want: 40%
Stretchy arns are fun, but that seems to cover all Arms characters do. An Assist Trophy role would be perfect though.
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

The Cute Cosmic Protector
Premium
Joined
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Messages
21,034
Location
Mushroom Kingdom
3DS FC
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ARMS Character
Want: 50%
Chance: 20%

Considering that ARMS didn't come into play until 2017, and the base roster was supposedly finalized in 2015, it seems doubtful that Smash Ultimate will have a playable ARMS character in the base game. DLC is always possible though.

Rhythm Heaven Character
Want: 50%
Chance: 10%

I don't have much to say about Rhythm Heaven, but I feel that a lot of the characters from that franchise seem more suited to be Assist Trophies. Others could just hope for mere trophy cameos.

7th Generation Pokemon Fighter
Want: 50%
Chance: 40%

While there are a couple contenders for this category, I think that some of the contenders are way too unlikely to even make the playable cut. Odds are, the Pokemon with the best chances will probably come down to who Sakurai thinks will be the most interesting to implement.
 
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