Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DLC Edition Day 282: Black Mage (Final Fantasy)

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This idea drives me Bonkers
Chance: 0.01%
Simply put, Bonkers has way to much competition. Bandana Dee, Marx, Magolor, Dark Matter, Adeliene, and that's just what comes to mind. All for the most part, major characters from the series. I'll give Bonkers this, he's the most prominent mid-boss in Kirby games, but that's not enough to exactly make him iconic. If push came to shove, he'd work as a Dedede echo.

Want: 0%
As it is, there are way to many Kirby characters that, in my opinion, should come first. Bandana Dee is my preferred, but others should also come first. I don't necessarily mind Bonkers as a character, but I always prefer playing as Dedede more when given the option. Maybe in the future when we have 5-6 Kirby characters.

Predictions: ... eh, I'll skip this today.

Noms: Kamek x5
 

Ridrool64

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UNDERTALE IN SMASH. (thump thump) Coming... (guitar riff) soon... (faster guitar riff) or later... (faster guitar riff) or eventually. (yet faster guitar riff)

Chance: It's no secret that I'm a believer. 80% is what I'm gonna go with, I really feel like this is gonna happen if we get loose Mii Costumes, let alone the possibility of Frisk (or, yes, Sans) being among the 5, which for the former I consider greater than expected (and the latter... still not convinced). The game's very popular, the characters are well known, many consider it one of the most notable indies, and Deltarune proves this isn't a one time thing. Even if some would believe Toby would not allow Frisk/Sans as actual participants, I honest to good see them as near locks for loose Mii Costumes, or for the "also" Mii Costumes for even if Reimu or Quote happened (or, yes, Shantae and Shovel Knight, but I don't see them happening anymore). At the very least, I can see the series being added as spirits with maybe a song or two for Custom Stages.

Now if we're talking just Fighters, I'd lower it to 70%. Still very likely, easily the likeliest set of Indie characters, but now, the flaws that they have may be much more impactful than before. I see them as likely fighters, in particular I am Team Frisk, but... unlike representation in general, fighters are much more contentious.

Want: I mean, Frisk is in my signature now, having bumped Geno out. I'd be telling tall tales on the internet if I said I didn't want it. 85%, game's one of those I can come back to and think about something in new angles, with new analyses, and oh my god if it were in Smash it'd be incredibly awesome, especially for indies as well, even if most doors are open and the elusive fighter slot isn't. Undertale is probably the series I would accept general representation the most of, actually: BK, Crash and Puyo are series that I'd be devastated to see without fighter representation, but with Undertale? I'd understand and move on, maybe support for next time.

Speaking of Crash, rerate him x 5.
 

ProfPeanut

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470
Gonna clarify this since I'm the guy who voted this in: I want people to put aside for now the question of "who" in Undertale would be represented, if ever. Every character in that game has something or other that makes them an unideal candidate (i.e. plenty of people see Sans on the same meme level as Steve, and I don't blame them). So as much as possible, let's assume for this topic that the question of "who" is not an issue, or has already been answered internally in Nintendo. Rather, I hope we can focus on the question of whether Undertale gets considered for a character candidate in the first place.

EDIT: Then again, if people really feel that the character choices can't be ignored, then I can't really stop anyone from weighting their scores based on who precisely gets in. There's some pretty strong opinions out there regarding the inclusion of Frisk or Sans, after all.

Anyway, here's the theme for today's discussion.
 
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39
Undertale is such a fascinating game to speculate on. During Base speculation and leading up to the release of Joker's DLC pack, I had no hope for the game getting character representation. If anything I thought maybe they'd get Spirit representation due to its popularity, but that didn't happen. Now that we have Joker's DLC I'm re-evaluating Undertale's chances. I can't deny that its appeal has certainly gone up.

Undertale has some pretty good qualities going for it:

1) It's wildly popular across the world. This includes Japan where it outsold Dragon Quest XI, Sans use of pronouns was a heavily discussed topic, and TobyFox visited Japan.

2) Its universe of characters is so unique. This is why Persona 5' DLC works so well. Persona 5's characters are great for Spirit battles. The references and the enjoyment people got were because the characters stand on their own. They aren't bland or one-sided. Undertale is very much the same. Anyone would love to see what a Spirit battle with Mettaton, Alphys, Asgore, etc would be like. The Spirit Board makes games like Undertale much more appealing, while other games less so (such as Minecraft).

3) The game's overall message is light-hearted and meaningful. Many of the characters in Smash come from games that are beloved for their story lines. Undertale fits with this. It seems like the kind of game Sakurai would love.

4) No Spirits were introduced. Lately, I'm leaning toward any Spirit representation being near disqualifying.


There are (quote, unquote) downsides:

1) The game is (was) singular. There's no history aside from Undertale and Deltarune. However, I don't think this automatically disqualifies like some do. It's one of those weak rules that could easily be broken. Similar to the rules of "Only Nintendo Characters", "No Guns", "No Enemy Minion Characters", the idea that a game has to have some length of history isn't set in stone. I feel like Undertale is so unique in its popularity that it could be the exception to that rule.

2) It's a Western made game. Again, the idea a game has to be Japanese in origin is silly. Diddy Kong and King K Rool aren't. Shovel Knight and Shantae aren't either. I think there certainly is some weight on Japanese characters, but I think popularity in Japan is more important than origin. This is why I have doubts Spyro could get in due to his history in Japan being not so great. However, characters like Steve, Master Chief, Sans, etc are perfectly fine because they're popular in Japan.

3) Some Smash fans would be upset by Undertale getting in, but <insert game here> not getting in. My only response to this is look at Piranha Plant. Any saltiness felt would eventually fade.


My Rate Score: 40%
My Want Score: 100%

I absolutely would adore Undertale in Smash. However, as much as I think the Undertale franchise would work as a DLC pack, there are so many other franchises out there that also fit the template. I think there are too many other games from larger companies that would get in before Undertale would. Still, the Rate Score is as high as it is because it would be the PERFECT surprise.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Cadet
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Dec 18, 2018
Messages
74
NGGGGGGGGGAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH

Chance: 20%.
I dunno, Undertale doesn't strike me as the type of game that would make it into Smash, given the general theme of pacifism. Deltarune's characters do a bit more fighting, but the theme of being able to choose not to fight is still a huge part of the game. To be frankly honest, if I were to pin it down to one character from each, Undertale would have Undyne and Deltarune would have Susie. They're the most naturally inclined to fighting.


Want: Right now, 0%.
The reason why it's a 0% right now in particular is because there's a certain other game series that inspired Undertale that should make it in before Undertale does *coughTouhouProjectcough*. Give me Reimu over an Undertale character any day. Once we get Touhou representation, my want rating would vary depending on the character- ones like Undyne and Susie would be higher, and characters like Sans and Frisk would be lower, but it'd generally be somewhere around 20-40%.


Noms: Saber (Fate) x5.
 

Ornl

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Messages
181
Undertale rep
Last RTC average about Sans ≈ 3.5%
My personal forecast : 15%

Notoriety
The Undertale's creator, Toby Fox, was inspired by (among others) Mother, Super Mario RPG, and Shin Megami Tensei. But even in Japan, it's common knowledge that he has a critical opinion against some elements from Final Fantasy, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Mother and Pokémon. However, that didn't stop the two Japanese video game magazines Famitsu and Nintendo DREAM very promoted Deltarune by both putting the game on one cover. Other examples of covers about non-Japanese indie games are very rare at Nintendo DREAM. I didn't find any other.

1556961117896.png
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Nintendo DREAM and Undertale
In Nintendo DREAM, there are polls about most popular video game characters.
The poll from the October 2018 announces Sans 2sd, Papyrus 5th, Mettaton 8th, Undyne 9th, Frisk 15th, Toriel 17th, Flowey 18th.
**** >1/3 of the characters in this poll are characters from Undertale. ****
The poll from the March 2019 announces Sans 8th, Mettaton 13th, Papyrus 17th and Frisk 19th.
**** 1/5 of the characters in this poll are characters from Undertale. ****
The poll for June 2019 announces Sans 5th, Undine 18th and Susie (Deltarune) 20th.
**** 1/7 of the characters in this poll are characters from Undertale/Deltarune. ****
Only them are from a third-party license (even if at other times there is Sonic). Because Nintendo DREAM carries the spotlight on Undertale. It's especially clear with this fact : in February, the magazine has offered a 2019 calendar with only one theme : Undertale.

Porky and Undertale
Costume theory is that Sega Costumes had reappeared with the Sega Fighter, and there are missing old Costumes from Squenix, Capcom and Bamco. But Porky is also missing as Spirit. Porky's helicopter appears in the stage Foursite since Melee. Porky's Theme is a music in in the stage New Pork City since Brawl. Porky Statue appears in the stage New Pork City since Brawl. Porky appears as a boss in Brawl. Porky appears as a trophy in Brawl and Sm4sh. Porky appears as a Smash Tour item in Sm4sh. In Ultimate, only The Absolutely Safe Capsule is used as a Spirit, and its sprite is the empty variant.
I think Porky could have two ways to come back, whatever its form : either with a pack Undertale, or with a new mode.
What does Porky have to do with Undertale?
Toby Fox always has been a big fan of Mother and he and his three brothers developed EarthBound ROM hacks in high school, the most notable being Earthbound: The Halloween Hack (2008). A number of topics on the web parallel the similarities between Undertale and Earthbound, with Undertale being seen as a spiritual successor. There is a controversial game theory that supposes that Sans secret identity is Ness., but I don't have an opinion on this subject because it doesn't interest me.

1556962745614.png


Little more in my opinion
- Undertale is different from other RPGs,
- Undertale isn't subject to a significant age limit (only Metal Gear and third party licenses featuring demon hunts - Castlevania/Bayonetta/Persona - already are exceptions),
- Undertale rep wouldn't have a high position in the ballot (the ballot was useful for some new basic Fighters, but it would be the opposite concerning Joker and all other DLC),
- Undertale rep wouldn't be a male human (only ≈ 1/3 of the Fighters in Smash are male humans ; with Brave as an other human male, 6/10 third-party non-Echo Fighters already would be male humans).

100% of the Fighters come from licenses born in Japan
The ballot was useful for Shovel Knight, Rayman and Shantae as Spirits, who aren't from Japanese license. A new Fighter could be chosen to break the tradition that all fighters are issued from Japanese licenses. But this choice should announce excellent reasons to justify "why he and not another ?" At E3 2013, Sakurai already said "I'm not just going to have any character participate (in Smash) from other companies" when talking about Mega Man's inclusion. The reason should be very important. Unterdale has the advantage is to meet perfectly the specifications announced by Reggie, with the potential to easily respond to this point : "Mr. Sakurai wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".
In the column reserved for he in Famitsu, Sakurai said to have played at Undertale. He didn't give his opinion about his experience. It still is a little possibility that he would have wanted to remain secret.
But in the end, an Undertale rep wouldn't add a lot of nuance Smash universe that want offer the biggest crossover game that has ever existed. Undertale could even serve the soul of Samsh Bros, becoming an open door to new improbable fans' wishes.
 

Sari

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Some songs to get into the Undertale mood (I'm pretty sure you all know what the first song is gonna be):


Undertale Rep

Chance: 20%
Usually I don't think indie characters have much of a chance but Undertale is a bit different. The game became an instant phenomenon with Sans being fairly recognizable in the gaming community and the game's soundtrack being incredibly popular (Megalovania is close to crossing the 100,000,000 view threshold on Youtube). Heck, Sakurai himself even played it on PC not too long ago. The game takes a ton of inspiration from Earthbound so I think Toby Fox would be more than happy to include an Undertale rep. Of course it'd still have to compete with other game series from more notable companies like Capcom and Namco.

Want: Abstain
I played a bit of Undertale years ago but never got around to finishing it. Like with the Tales series, Undertale is such a big series that my rating would probably be inaccurate so I'll abstain like I did on Yuri Lowell's day. That said though I'd love for the Undertale soundtrack to be in Smash in some form.

Brash the Bear chance prediction: 0.01% (seriously?)
Lora chance prediction: 0.93% (not likely with Rex/Pyra MIA)

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5

Porky and Undertale
Costume theory is that Sega Costumes had reappeared with the Sega Fighter, and there are missing old Costumes from Squenix, Capcom and Bamco. But Porky is also missing as Spirit. Porky's helicopter appears in the stage Foursite since Melee. Porky's Theme is a music in in the stage New Pork City since Brawl. Porky Statue appears in the stage New Pork City since Brawl. Porky appears as a boss in Brawl. Porky appears as a trophy in Brawl and Sm4sh. Porky appears as a Smash Tour item in Sm4sh. In Ultimate, only The Absolutely Safe Capsule is used as a Spirit, and its sprite is the empty variant.
I think Porky could have two ways to come back, whatever its form : either with a pack Undertale, or with a new mode.

Toby Fox always has been a big fan of Mother and he and his three brothers developed EarthBound ROM hacks in high school, the most notable being Earthbound: The Halloween Hack (2008). A number of topics on the web parallel the similarities between Undertale and Earthbound, with Undertale being seen as a spiritual successor.
I know that Undertale is heavily inspired from Earthbound but I really doubt Nintendo cares about that relation enough to add Porky alongside an Undertale rep. At most I'd expect the Undertale/Earthbound connection to be represented through a funny official screenshot, something along the lines of Roy being alongside Roy Koopa.

There is a controversial game theory that supposes that Sans secret identity is Ness., but I don't have an opinion on this subject because it doesn't interest me.
This is the first time I've ever heard someone bring up that theory unironically.
 
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Undertale is in the game
Chance general representation: 90%
Chance fighters: 50%

There's no denying the game's massive popularity. Even in Nintendo's eyes Undertale is such a big deal that the Switch ports for both it and Deltarune were first announced in regular Nintendo Directs alongside other major first and third-party games as opposed to in the Indie showcases. That's something not even Cuphead can claim. If the relatively way less popular Shovel Knight and Shantae can get Spirits and an Assist Trophy in SK's case, then something like Spirits or Mii costumes are a near lock for the Indie RPG.

Would the game be worth a fighter though, as the other two popular characters couldn't make it? Since Undertale is well liked by Sakurai and is more than tenfolds more popular than them both in the west as well as Japan, (it's crazy huge over there) I'd say yes.
As long as Nintendo doesn't completely rules out western devs and small devs. To me it comes down to three characters, each having things going for and against them, the human and one of the two skelebros.

The human is the player controlled character, which Smash tends to go for these first, as they often have a greater connection to the player than NPCs. On the other hand this doesn't necessarily apply to the human as they're not the most popular nor do they show much personality. It would also look quite odd having the main character of a game all about pacifism star in a fighting game.

Sans is the most popular character in the game by far and arguably the face of Undertale. He's the one everyone's memeing about and showing up in fan polls. Yet, he's not the one you control, also the Sans most people want is the final boss of the genocide run, which can be considered a major spoiler and to my knowledge Toby likes to keep that run a secret, though I don't know if Sakurai would care.

Lastly Papyrus. His battle isn't a spoiler, Bonetrousle was used in the game's trailer in fact. I guess out of the three he'd also be the one to feel the least OutOfCharacter to be playable in Smash. Though again, he isn't the character the player controls, nor is he the one everyone's talking about.

With each of their pros and cons I can't really rank them in terms of likeliness.

Want: 80%
Part of me wants it ironically for the reactions and memes, the other because Undertale is still legitimately good, especially its ost. The music a character would bring with them wwold be define if it got as much love as Castlevania did. Still knocking of some points due to being heavy competition to Hollow Knight.

Metal Sonic x5
 

BowserKing

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Undertale Representation Concept

General Chance: 20 to 30%
Popularity gives this franchise a boost other most competing franchises (there are exceptions, like Minecraft and Dragon Quest), so this game could have a chance of being represented. Who knows who will be predicted for Smash.

Want: 50%. Representation would be fun, but the question is who would be the playable one? There are several fighters to choose from, with many uniqueness to bring variety, so I cant choose which fighter will be chosen. Also the music would be fun to listen to.

Noms: 2 for Adeleine, 2 for Gooey and 1 for Creeper
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
3,769
Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland

Chance: 0%
It's not that I think Nintendo and Sakurai couldn't have considered the idea; it's that if they did they would have realized the impossibility of it.

It's safe to say that Undertale, more than any other indie, has engrained itself in gaming history and gaming culture. That certainly earns it consideration by the Smash Gods (even if I think Nintendo's go-to indie is Shovel Knight and they might upgrade him to playable before considering any other). But the Fighter Pass requires a Fighter, and Undertale doesn't have any.

Due to the mechanics of Undertale, the player character can't do more than a generic attack and speaking to the monsters. The monsters (that includes bosses) simply attack by sending out projectiles that the player dodges.

There's no moveset there.

Moving on, there's also the fact that Undertale's themes go against the idea of a game like Smash, and I don't think Toby Fox would budge on that. Even putting a character that isn't the Human as playable isn't an ideal solution. Sans is a spoiler and the rest of the characters... Well, if you're not gonna go Human, and you're not gonna go Sans, why would you go with the rest?

I was going to give 10% to account for the possibility that we might get non-Fighter content outside the FP (music, Spirits, Sans as a boss) but then I realized this was specifically representation as a Fighter.

Want: Abstain
I love Undertale but I'd have to be convinced that it actually works out if it happens (I still think Joker is a terrible representation of how he actually plays in Persona 5). Plus I'm not aching for Undertale representation in Smash, I think there's others that deserve it more.

Noms: Cronox5
 
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Ultomato

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Sanselicuous

Chance: 13%
This is a difficult situation. Off course theres the question: why hasn't it been represented already? Shovel Knight and Shantea are represented and Undertale seems to be Nintendo's favourite Indie Game. So it would make sense that some undertale rep could come as DLC
But the evidence for Banjo is enormous and the likelyhood of a namco, Capcom and square character comming is quite large. So unless a second fighter pass was planned at release, the absence of Undertale content doesn't point at a DLC fighter and without a fighter, it makes no sense to not have Spirits from start if you're gonna add them at all. So it's more likely there is no Undertale content planned.

Want: 100%
It is an awesome game that deserves representation. If anything, just in the music. Give me Dummy Fight and I'm good for years. Of course, my only concern here is upsetting Hollow Knight fans, but we can have that too, right?

Noms: Rundas x5
 

fleshdude.gov

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 5, 2018
Messages
275
Undertale Rep In Smash Bros.

Chance: 65%
Toby Fox and Nintendo are working very, very closely together, especially as of recently. Undertale's Switch port received an entirely new boss as original, exclusive content, and Deltarune's arrival on Switch's EShop was announced not in a Nindies, but in its own full segment in a Main Direct. So far, not even Cuphead's arrival on Switch was afforded this, so it is clear that Nintendo views Undertale (and by natural extension, Deltarune) as quite valuable. There's also the fact that Undertale is both Relevant (thanks to Deltarune Chapter 1 dropping on Switch just this year) and one of several games that has received high praise from Sakurai himself. This same combination of relevancy and high regard from Sakurai is what got Joker in, so that's very good news for Undertale's chances.

There are, however, a couple problems that prevent me from saying their chances are any higher. Namely, who do you choose, and how do you represent them with as few spoilers as possible? Both of these problems are, from my understanding, ones unique to Undertale in particular - no other game really has such strong main characters that is also so dependent on its story. (Despite the fact that its story is basically an open secret at this point thanks to the internet, Toby Fox has made it clear that he strongly prefers that his games are played having gotten no spoilers coming into them. Considering how closely Sakurai works with the creators of the third-party characters that he puts in Smash, I am very greatly inclined to say that Sakurai would share Toby's concerns.) I do not think these two questions are unanswerable, mind you - just that they make choosing and developing an Undertale Rep for Smash Bros. Ultimate more difficult.

Want: 99%
I really enjoyed Undertale when it came out, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Deltarune has in store when the full game is finally released. As such, an Undertale Rep in Smash would be a great addition, and I'm not really opposed to any of the choices available. (Personally, I think Papyrus & Sans as a tag team of sorts would be the best choice, though.) Also, smash remixes of Undertale songs? Yes please!

Nominations: Glover x5
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,419
Undertale Character

Chance - 5% - While there may be some representation at some point, I hesitate on a character.

The typical go-to in the main character has problems: the majority of their actions are text descriptions of what are typically peaceful actions in the first place. They are also defined by being a pacifist, and are usually explicitly labeled as non-violent. Compared to say, Villager and Wii-Fit, who are more incidentally pacifistic because they have no real opportunities to fight, compared to Undertale's major reasons and descriptions. You'd probably have to bend over backwards to make a reasonable move set that doesn't break the game, using mostly pacifistic moves with a character who is explicitly against most violence using what little material you have.

Anyone else is a somewhat risky spoiler. Sans may be the most popular, but the fact that he fights at all is a major spoiler in and of itself. Undyne, while combative, is a bit latter on in the game and quite mysterious for most of it. Papyrus is probably the best bet, but he just doesn't seem to spark as much interesting move set ideas as some others.

Combine this with a notion that there are other characters that compete with them, I think there are better ways to implement it.


Want - 30% - I don't mind Undertale content, but I think a character is a bit much. Add assist trophies, music, stages, sure, it's earned it. But a character seems unnecessary in my eyes.


Nominations

Palico X5
 

GoodGrief741

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Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x160
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x155
Metal Sonic x133
Nathan Drake x130
Tetromino x130
Amy Rose x115
Palico x115

150 - 101

[Rerate] Erdrick x107
Impa x111
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x105
Concept: Microsoft Rep x102
Creeper x101

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Morrigan Aensland x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x99
Monokuma x98
Boss: Kracko x85
Frogger x85
Spyro x82
Kamek x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
9-Volt x74
Crono x70
Kyle Hyde x70
Jin Kazama x65
Ninten x62
Concept: Square Enix rep x60
Frisk x55
Glover x55
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Adeleine (Kirby) x46
X (Mega Man) x44
Saber (Fate) x40
Decidueye x39
[Rerate] 2B x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: DLC challenges x30
Velvet Crowe x30
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x30
Concept: Valve rep x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Heavy (Team Fortress) x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Gooey (Kirby) x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x23
Earthworm Jim x20
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Rundas x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Brian (Quest 64) x17
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Tora and Poppi x15
Ellie (The Last of Us) x15
Gex x12
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Another joke character x10
Black Shadow x10
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x10
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x9
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x8
Toon Zelda x8
Marx (Kirby) x7
King Boo x7
[Rerate] Steve? x6
Magolor x6
Mike Jones x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Specter Knight x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
[Rerate] Banjo x1

Metal Sonic bursts past Nathan Drake and steals third place. Tetromino ties with the aforementioned Drake.

Glover rolls past 50 noms.

Today's newcomers are a rerate of Geno (2 noms), a rerate of Banjo (1 nom) and Duster (1 nom).
 

Among Waddle Dees

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Mar 23, 2017
Messages
76
Undertale Representation

Chance: 15%. From what I can tell, Japan loves this game, and that seems like a strong start at first, but ultimately Undertale has some rough blockades to cross. It is a Western creation, is not owned by Nintendo unlike Diddy, K. Rool and Dark Samus, and is also an indie title. Smash does have some of this representation already with Shantae and Shovel Knight, but other than spirits and an assist trophy those two were largely left untouched. So I think in order for Undertale (or any other indie) to get DLC, the character criteria needs to change.

Want: 30%. I used to hate Undertale with a passion, then I slowly warmed up to it. I still don't think that necessarily warrants Undertale DLC. First off, I would think they would sooner represent Deltarune, since that is a more recent title. Second off, the only thing I truly love about Undertale is that wonderful OST. That alone might have been enough to bump the want to 50%... but I worry the music will be sidelined or mostly focused on Megalovania. Third off, I don't know if the fighter will be worth it. Who would they even use? I doubt Sans would actually work, and Frisk seems a bit too basic. All this, combined with the fact I don't really want more new franchises right now, makes me feel like Undertale DLC will not be a great idea here.

Nominations

Adeleine (Kirby) x5
 

UtopianPoyzin

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I think Porky could have two ways to come back, whatever its form : either with a pack Undertale,
Umm what?! Lol

Also:

80% want

The music is really the main thing I want to see from Undertale. I don't care if any fighters are added from the series. If Megalovania is listenable in Smash, that's good enough.


Nominating: Impa x5
 

Jomosensual

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Undertale rep

Chance 20 - Popularity, especially in Japan, gives this a chance for sure. But man, being a western indie does Sans and any other possible rep no favors. Sans and Cuphead are the only ones with reasonable chances to be indie reps anymore and I really don't see either happening. I dpnt think I'd be shocked if Sans got in but I really don't think it's likely

Want - Abstain

Noms
Ellie x5
 

ProfPeanut

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A Character From The Friendly RPG Where Nobody Has To Die

Chance: 70%
Just the name "Undertale" is likely to spark some intense feeling in the heart of anyone you could ask. If that doesn't tell you about this 3-and-a-half year-old four-hour-long RPG's influence on culture, then I don't know what will.

For a start, we don't have to worry about whether Undertale reached the project plan in time anymore thanks to Persona 5, a game nearly one year its junior. One could argue that P5 still came out in Japan on September 2016 while Undertale was only localized there on August of 2017, but we've already seen that Undertale doesn't need a very long time to make an impact.

Undertale also certain fills in the qualification for unexpectedness, even as the internet continues to meme up the idea of Sans getting in. Now, I'd be even more surprised if Undertale becomes the first Western third-party to show up (I fully expect an older, more established Western one to be confirmed first), but it's not impossible, given how no Western game has ever really been embraced by Japan as much as Undertale has. I still expect a more renowned and expensive franchise to make it in first, since Undertale would remain a surprising pick no matter how many characters preceded it in the Fighter Pass, and it wouldn't mind waiting for its chance in the spotlight if ever.

While its popularity is undeniable, its legacy is far more up for speculation. Thankfully, Undertale seems to already be makings its own future in the form of Deltarune, so it's not a universe with nothing left to give. But there's no real judgement on the matter of its legacy, and few examples of newer games showing clear indications of Undertale's influence. Will people still remember this game in a decade's time?

Perhaps the biggest question is the issue of what interest Nintendo might have in including Undertale in the DLC roster. I'm of the belief that Nintendo is using the opportunity of the Fighter Pass to push Switch consoles first and Ultimate sales second, which means enticing large demographics that wouldn't normally have a reason to buy a Nintendo console (i.e. the Persona base, which was entrenched in Sony consoles). The Undertale base is arguably built on the PC, but it's also got some overlap with people who like Nintendo games in the first place - chances are, a good number of Undertale fans are already Nintendo fans. There's nothing really entrenching the Undertale base to a non-Nintendo platform like the PC; Nintendo could arguably snap them all up just by localizing Mother 3, if they didn't already do that with the exclusive boss encounter in Undertale's Switch port.

At the end of the day, Undertale still has to stand on its own against the great third-parties of gaming, opponents that most other indies arguing for inclusion tend to avoid direct confrontation with. But I believe that it can stand against them, especially when it does something that high-profile games simply can't and won't do, and with such excellence that so many people are affected so deeply by it. Isn't that what indies are for, after all?

Want: 80%
I recognize that there are older and more established games out there, characters who are still waiting up to now to be acknowledged in Smash. And yeah, four slots isn't enough for everyone that everyone wants. Maybe legacy matters more than we think, and maybe the internet makes up more of Undertale's appeal than the fans would like to believe.

But so many people genuinely love this game, and for me, there's nothing the Fighter Pass can't do better than to single out those games that people really, truly love. That's all it would take to make this entire DLC pack unobjectionably worthwhile.


Nominations
Valve representative x5
 
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3DSNinja

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SANS
Chance:10%: The problem is that Undertale is pacifiistic by nature. It still is very popular so maybe.
Want:100%: Papyrus would be amazing. Pls do this Sakurai.
Nominations: Black Mage x5
 

NotAPro Bro

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Undertale Reprensitation

Chance: 5%, Indie games RARELY get in. Only cases are the Shantae Spirit, and Shovel Knight Assist Trophy. However, both of them were really, well known, with HUGE support. I say 0% on Undertale characters being playable, but Spirit is possible, 10%. Combine 0% and 10% and average is 5%.

Want: 0%, I don't even have the game still. And couldn't care any about anyone. I feel like that'll 100% change once (if I get to) play it, but right now, couldn't care.

Nominations: Dwight Fairfield x5
 

TheCJBrine

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Smashtale ft. Ness as Sans:

Chance: 34% - It's a very popular indie, and it seems to be one that Nintendo may favor, as it gets its own place in normal Directs instead of being put with the other indies. I'm not sure if it'd get a playable character, but I could see some stuff like Spirits or Mii Costumes at least (though I'd love a playable character of course). It is very popular, so it could get in if Nintendo and Sakurai consider it; it may be an indie, but I'm not sure if that matters, unless a smaller company or team wouldn't be talked to for playable characters despite their game's huge praise for some reason. Who knows, they probably don't care if a game is an indie, Sakurai and Nintendo probably just didn't want Shovel Knight as more than an AT and Spirits.

Want: 100% - I really like Undertale, and would love to see it get content in Smash, especially a playable character or two like Papyrus & Sans or Frisk. As I said, I'm not really sure it'd get a playable character if it got in, but I could see the other stuff I mentioned, and maybe it could get even more in the next Smash game; getting some music would be excellent even if we can't get a character, too. give me the music, dang it.

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Ninten x2
 
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DUNDERTALE
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Y'all are overestimating the hell out of this one in my opinion. While Undertale is very successful, and popular in Japan, being a western developed indie character really hurts Sans and friends' chances. Undertale and Deltarune are on the Switch, and the popularity from the stage builder does help Undertale with chances, but the game's super pacifistic nature might make it hard to stay true with source material. The most I'll take for Undertale representation is a spirit or a random music track that can sit in the "Other" section with Clu Clu Land, so it can play on Hanenbow all day. I'd prefer to not have a character join just for the sake of memes and nothing else. Joke characters get a pass, because they're meant to be a funny surprise. Characters like Waluigi also get a pass in my mind, because he's a well deserved character, unlike Sans. Also the Undertale fanbase irritates the hell out of me, so I'll pass.

Tetromino x5

NotAPro Bro NotAPro Bro btw Freddi Fish fell out of the top 7 and can make a comeback.
 
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ShotoStar

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Dread it, Run from it, Undertale arrives all the same.

Chance: 65% I can honestly see the potential for Undertale representation in Smash as it has a ton to pull from and outside of that it has some things going for it. For examples: Sakurai played Undertale and enjoyed it this isn't all that big of a deal as he plays a lot of games but he's at least aware of Undertale and if he really wanted to put an Indie character in he could do such with putting an Undertale rep in.

Speaking of Indies while some believe that Indies don't deserve to be in Smash I honestly disagree I think Indies are a huge part of the current gaming era and while they aren't owned by companies they're just as if not bigger than some triple A games, Undertale is a perfect example of that.

Undertale is absolutely massive and has a following across the world from Japan and Undertale outselling DQ XI over there to Europe and it being the best selling game in September of last year to, Of course, America where it is constantly in the top 10-15 best selling games on the E-Shop. Needless to say it has a massive following everywhere.

Sans is even highly requested over there and he's in the top 10 non-the-less so it's just another factor proving that Undertale has world wide recognition and appeal.

And even Nintendo themselves seem to be pushing Undertale and it's sequel/spinoff Deltarune as seen here where Deltarune got it's own segment in a Nintendo Direct from my knowledge this was a normal Direct too and not some Nindie Direct which goes to show that Nintendo is somewhat from minimally to heavily pushing Undertale.

If Nintendo really wants to push Undertale and respects Nindies they could easily kill both with one stone and put Undertale representation in Smash to not only push Undertale itself but show that they really respect Nindies and would want to Represent them if possible, Even outside of Undertale as far as Nindies and over all Indies go there's not a lot to pull from since Shovel Knight is deconfirmed and Shantae probably won't get in.

Sure Quote could work but he's not very popular in this day and age nor does Cave Story seem to be pushed all too much by Nintendo whereas Undertale is doing well for itself and has a ton of Popularity nowadays to the point that it has world wide recognition and Nintendo's recognition.

Also one thing I would like to discuss before leaving which admittedly I already sorta talked about, Why would an Indie rep be chosen in the first place?

Well Nintendo seems to really like and respect Indies as they constantly push them with their Nindie showcase which could lead to them wanting to put an Indie rep in Smash to show that they really take Indies seriously, They even have a good enough relationship with Indies to lend an Indie franchise LoZ which is not only one of their biggest franchises but also hasn't had a serious 3rd party game since the GBA and Capcom.

This is the first time they lend out their franchise in over 10 years and to an Indie dev no less I think that alone shows that they take Indies seriously and that they do respect them, That's not even mentioning that Indies are a big part of today's Gaming landscape which I already sorta mentioned earlier.

Anyways overall I would say that the chances for an Undertale Rep would be around 65% it has a good chance of happening all things considered.

Want: 60% Even taking how interesting Sans/Frisk/Whoever could be out of consideration I would want some Undertale music in Smash as it's absolutely fantastic and remixes of stuff like Metal Crusher, Death by Glamour, Bonetrousle, Fight against a True Hero, and yes even Megalovania would be absolutely, Positively amazing.

Nomination: Banjo-Kazooie X5
 
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Icedragonadam

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Unrelated to today's day, but it's safe to say that Dante is no longer disconfirmed. Devil May Cry is coming to Switch.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uNIfZqLECCI
*Game gets ported onto the Switch*

Smash Fans: "Does this mean X is in Smash?"

Doesn't mean anything. The fact that they're campaigning for Dante to be in Smash and that DLC was decided a long time ago means that Dante is not in the Fighter's Pass.

Undertale Reprersentation:

Chance: 0.01%

Undertale is unlikely to get a character in the fighter's pass, and it's like the only DLC spirits in the spirit board will be only 1st party characters while additional 3rd party spirits will come with the 3rd party characters in the DLC Spirit Board.

Want: 0%

Just no please. I'm so sick of this game and it's fanbase.

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5
 
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*Game gets ported onto the Switch*

Smash Fans: "Does this mean X is in Smash?"

Doesn't mean anything. The fact that they're campaigning for Dante to be in Smash and that DLC was decided a long time ago means that Dante is not in the Fighter's Pass.

Undertale Reprersentation:

Chance: 0.01%

Undertale is unlikely to get a character in the fighter's pass, and it's like the only DLC spirits in the spirit board will be only 1st party characters while additional 3rd party spirits will come with the 3rd party characters in the DLC Spirit Board.

Want: 0%

Just no please. I'm so sick of this game and it's fanbase.

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5
I didn't say that Dante is automatically coming to Smash, just that he's back in contention. But then again, they could've picked the fighters before they knew about the port.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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btw Freddi Fish fell out of the top 7 and can make a comeback.
Don't poke the bear, we don't need this.

Unrelated to today's day, but it's safe to say that Dante is no longer disconfirmed. Devil May Cry is coming to Switch.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uNIfZqLECCI
Also this means nothing in terms of confirmation. If Dante has been disconfirmed in the past, than a game coming to the Switch doesn't suddenly change that.
 

UtopianPoyzin

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The deconformation was that Dante couldn’t get in without one of his games being on a Nintendo console.
...but that wasn't the deconfirmation... the deconfirmation was about the DMC devs' conduct concerning Dante's campaign for DLC, to bring hype around the character while effectively deconfirming him.
 

DanganZilla5

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Undertale Rep

Chance: 20%

I'm kind of mixed on this one. Undertale is very popular in Japan and Sakurai has said he likes it. But what makes me skeptical is a moveset. I'm not too familiar with Undertale, but what kind of moveset is there? Plus if Shantae and Shovel Knight couldn't be playable indie reps, then I don't see why they would pick Undertale over those two. Overall, I don't see it happening but there is definitely a chance it could indeed happen.

Want: 10%

Megalovania is a really good song, but other than that, I'm not too interested in Undertale in Smash. It doesn't strike me as something that would fit in well with Smash.
 

MajoraMoon

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Undertale Rep

Chance: 80%

Undertale has a VERY high chance when it comes to getting in smash. Not only is it popular in the West, but also in Japan. Sakurai has also played Undetale. If my theory about this fighter pass trying to attract new players, this would do it. Even the Nintendo Eshop calls Undertale "The world-famous indie RPG". "But what about Shantae and Shovel Knight? Why weren't they playable?" well, they aren't as huge as Undertale. Besides Minecraft (though to be fair that is now bought by Microsoft) and possibly Five Night's at Freddy's, Undertale is the largest Indie game out there. Besides the fanbase, there are three characters that would fit the bill to be the rep: Sans, Frisk/Chara, and Undyne. If you want to check the move-set ideas, I recommend checking out the supporter threads for them. Undertale is also loaded with music. It would at least have Megalovania, Hopes and Dreams, Bonetrousle, and Spears of Justice. Also, it would help promote Deltarune if they add some of that music into the DLC as well. When it comes to stages, the Underground has a ton of options, from Snowdin to Hotland and to the Judgement Hall.

Want: 100% I LOVE Undertale. The characters, the humor, the soundtrack, and story are just amazing! I would LOVE to see an Undertale rep in Smash one way or another. If there were a game to rep indie games as a whole, it would be Undertale........if not that maybe Cuphead.
 

Neosonic97

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Undertale's creator, Toby Fox, was inspired by (among others) Mother, Super Mario RPG, and Shin Megami Tensei.
>No mention of Touhou, even though that was also a huge part of the inspiration (definitely moreso than Super Mario RPG)

>Some attack patterns in Undertale (particularly those of the True Pacifist Final Boss) were taken straight from Touhou, too

I am disappoint.
 

Ornl

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>No mention of Touhou, even though that was also a huge part of the inspiration (definitely moreso than Super Mario RPG)

>Some attack patterns in Undertale (particularly those of the True Pacifist Final Boss) were taken straight from Touhou, too

I am disappoint.
"(among others)" was an expression chosen to make sense. Knowing that I was doing a link from Undertale to Nintendo DREAM (Nintendo magazine), why should I mention other influences than those from Nintendo ? By ignoring "among others", by ingoring the context, I think you created your disappointment yourself.
 

Ultomato

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"(among others)" was an expression chosen to make sense. Knowing that I was doing a link from Undertale to Nintendo DREAM (Nintendo magazine), why should I mention other influences than those from Nintendo ? By ignoring "among others", by ingoring the context, I think you created your disappointment yourself.
Yeah because SMT is a Nintendo franchise
 

Ornl

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Yeah because SMT is a Nintendo franchise
I didn't want to say that Megami Tensei is owned by Nintendo. "Shin Megami Tensei" was a reference chosen to make sense. I was doing a link from Undertale to Nintendo DREAM, and the magazine always has a special part dedicated to "Sega and its friends" (link) and had some covers dedicated to the series.

Moreover, Megami Tensei has a solid past with Nintendo. From 1987 to September 1995, the first 13 games in the series were on Nintendo consoles. 8 of them are Nintendo exclusives. The 13th game is released among the short selection of games on Virtual Boy (22 games). Then, 4 other games are exclusive on Game Boy Advance, 4 other games are exclusive on Nintendo DS & 3DS. Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE is a crossover with the Nintendo license Fire Emblem on WiiU. Shin Megami Tensei V will initially be exclusive on Switch.
 
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