Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DLC Edition! Day 257: Arthas (Warcraft)

Neosonic97

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Ravio, AKA
Lorule's Link

Chance: 1%. I don't see Ravio happening. The only possible moveset for him would be using the items he loans to Link in ALBW, which, really, already treads on the toes of, you guessed it, The Links.

And let's be real here, do we REALLY want a FOURTH Link in the game?

Want: I actually haven't played A Link Between Worlds (But I have done my research), but I don't particularly want this guy in. I have a lot of characters higher on my personal priority list, notably Yuri Lowell and Reimu Hakurei. About 10%.

Dark Matter Prediction: 1%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5
 
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Also shocktarts17 shocktarts17 shocktarts17 shocktarts17 pls help me get Black Mage. Talking from one person who got one char (2 in my case) into the RTC by themselves to another, pls help me get Black Mage in. Specially since in your Sephiroth review u said u wanted Black Mage.
Honestly he's a long way off and while I think Black Mage would be a good FF rep, I'm hardly a huge FF fan so I'm not sure I want to commit that many nominations to him. I'll drop a few here and there though since I do think he would be interesting.
 
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Note: My Ravio rating might come late because I will be running a Smash Ultimate tournament in my school as a part of Student Council. This post might become irrelevant if I can get it out early.
 

Ornl

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Ravio

Chance : 0%
- Not original : Ravio is a 4th Link, while the community prefers Skullkid ou Impa. He hides his identity... like Joker.
- Not iconic : Ravio isn't an hero, nor a Zelda recurrent character. Sheik ? Unlike Sheik, Ravio isn't from an iconic game with as much success as Ocarnia of Time or Breath of the Wild. Sheik is one of the few counter-examples of non-legitimacy in Smash. Two counter-examples would be too much.
- Non-promotional : Outside Hyrule Warriors, Ravio appeared 6 years ago. He already exists in Spirit. There is no reason to include it in DLC and not in the basic game.
 
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Not original : Ravio is a 4th Link, while the community prefers Skullkid ou Impa. He hides his identity... like Joker.
I already addressed the 4th Link in my post and why he makes more sense than Skull Kid and Impa. And Meta Knight hides his identity yet Joker got in so I'm not sure I see your point there.

Not iconic : Ravio isn't an hero, nor a Zelda recurrent character.
Neither are Impa or Skull Kid who you just used to say it couldn't be Ravio. Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Mother, Final Fantasy, and Persona all have characters in Smash who aren't recurring, heck even Zelda does with Sheik.

Sheik ? Unlike Sheik, Ravio isn't from an iconic game with as much success as Ocarnia of Time or Breath of the Wild.
Few games have the level of success as OoT, if that is the bar for entry then the Smash roster needs to be trimmed way back.

Sheik is one of the few counter-examples of non-legitimacy in Smash. Two counter-examples would be too much.
You can't both argue that Sheik makes sense because she's from the most popular game and then say she doesn't make sense, if she doesn't make sense for Smash then don't use her in your argument against Ravio.

Non-promotional : Outside Hyrule Warriors, Ravio appeared 6 years ago. He already exists in Spirit. There is no reason to include it in DLC and not in the basic game.
Actually his game's release would put him in the exact perfect window to be considered for DLC since it came out the same year they were planning the roster. And in my post I talked about how he could be promotional if he shows up in the rumored Zelda game coming this year.

I will concede though that he is a spirit and that hurts his chances on top of his chances of being a promotional pick being slim which is why I rated his chance score pretty low, so I have no issue with you rating him low I just wish you wouldn't use such faulty logic to do so.

The only possible moveset for him would be using the items he loans to Link in ALBW, which, really, already treads on the toes of, you guessed it, The Links.
The Links use 4 items bombs, boomerang, bow & arrows, and hookshot (which Link doesn't even use any more) but other than that mostly fight with their sword. The Zelda games probably have over 50+ items across the different games so there are plenty of items Ravio could use without even using the ones the Links use (though in my moveset I had him use all the items he rents out which does have some overlap with the Links).
 
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Ornl

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Meta Knight hides his identity yet Joker got in so I'm not sure I see your point there.
Meta Knight isn't one of the new 12 SmashU "unique and different" non-Echo characters.

Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Mother, Final Fantasy, and Persona all have characters in Smash who aren't recurring, heck even Zelda does with Sheik.
Ravio isn't an hero, and nor recurring (2). All the new DLC characters are heroes or recurring : Bayonetta, Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Pirahna Plant, Joker, and probably Brave.

Few games have the level of success as OoT, if that is the bar for entry then the Smash roster needs to be trimmed way back.
I'm talking about Zelda games.

You can't both argue that Sheik makes sense because she's from the most popular game and then say she doesn't make sense, if she doesn't make sense for Smash then don't use her in your argument against Ravio.
It's different for a new DLC character. 18 years of reflection and evolution separate Sheik and the new DLC characters.
 
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Meta Knight isn't one of the new 12 SmashU "unique and different" non-Echo characters.
I'm still not sure I'm following you here, Isabelle is a semi-clone so you can't be talking about movesets and I could probably find a simplification of each new character to the level of "hides his identity".
  • Villager fights with items like Link does
  • Mega Man has an arm cannon like Samus does and is a robot like R.O.B. is
  • WFT is a "realistic" human like Snake/Ike/Marth/Roy/ZZS/etc.
  • Rosalina is a princess like Peach
  • Little Mac is an athlete like C. Falcon and fights by punching like everyone does
  • Greninja is a ninja like Sheik and a water Pokemon like Squirtle and a starter Pokemon like Charzard
  • Palutena uses magic like Zelda
  • Pac-Man is retro like Ice Climbers/G&W
  • Robin uses magic like Zelda and a sword like Marth/Link/Roy/Ike/etc
  • Shulk uses a sword and has an anime art style like Marth/Roy/Ike
  • Bowser Jr is a Koopa like Bowser
  • Duck Hunt is retro like Ice Climbers/G&W and is two fighters like Ice Climbers
  • Ryu shoots fireballs like Mario does
  • Cloud uses a big sword like Ike does
  • Corrin uses a sword like Marth/Roy/Ike/etc
  • Bayonetta uses guns like Fox/Falco/Wolf/Snake and wears a skintight outfit like ZSS
  • Inkling uses different guns and grenades like Snake
  • Ridley has wings like Pit/Dark Pit and shoots fireballs like Mario/Luigi
  • Simon has a whip like ZSS
  • K. Rool uses a gun like Fox/Falco/Wolf/Snake and a boomerang like Link/Y. Link/ T. Link and has a counter like Marth/Roy/Ike/etc.
  • Isabelle works for the mayor's office like Villager does (oh and fights like Villager too)
  • Incineroar is a final evolution fire type like Charizard
  • Piranha Plant is plant based like Ivysaur
  • Joker hides his identy like Meta Knight
(Some of these are a huge stretch, who knew Sakurai picks good unique characters?)
Ravio isn't an hero, and nor recurring (2). All the new DLC characters are heroes or recurring : Bayonetta, Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Pirahna Plant, Joker, and probably Brave.
I disagree that this matters but can agree with what you're saying.

I'm talking about Zelda games.
But Zelda is using the ALBW look so obviously they don't feel like the Zelda game has to be as notable as OoT to be used for the fighters. And if they are really saying that Zelda can't get a fighter who doesn't come from a game as significant as OoT then Zelda basically isn't getting any more fighters.

It's different for a new DLC character.
I can agree with this statement, but...

18 years of reflection and evolution separate Sheik and the new DLC characters.
...you were the one who said Sheik is not legitimate and yet you keep talking about why she is legitimate. I was just saying that you can't say Ravio can't get in because it would be another example of non-legitimacy like Sheik when you said in the same post that Sheik is legitimate because she comes from OoT. Either she is or she isn't, you can't have it both ways.

EDIT: in reference to the hiding his identity issue, at the end of ALBW when he reveals his identity he wears his mask like a hat. If his Smash model used that version of Ravio would he suddenly be eligible?
 
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Ornl

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I'm still not sure I'm following you here
The "unique and different" concept to have a secret identity behind a mask is already used by Joker among the 12 new characters.
The "unique and different" concept to have a secret identity behind a mask is already used by Joker among the 5 new DLC characters.

Ravio have the same probleme as with SkullKid:
Skullkid would be legitimate to become a Smash fighter : legend mask, unique and different Zelda character concept, solid fanbase... Off, he didn't join the fighters unlike some Assist Trophees before him (Little Mac, Palutena...). This choice can (in part) be justified by the selection of Joker, a new license with similar thematics : mask, self-acceptance and demons from a parallel plan. It would have been impossible to have new Joker AND Skullkid fighters in only 5 DLC, because they are too similar from a certain point of view.

Edit : It's the same thing that happens between Isaac and Brave. Isaac didn't have any chance (in part) because of a new RPG character like Erdrick.

But Zelda is using the ALBW look
And ALTTP look ;)
 
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The "unique and different" concept to have a secret identity behind a mask is already used by Joker among the 12 new characters.
The "unique and different" concept to have a secret identity behind a mask is already used by Joker among the 5 new DLC characters.

Ravio have the same probleme as with SkullKid:
Skullkid would be legitimate to become a Smash fighter : legend mask, unique and different Zelda character concept, solid fanbase... Off, he didn't join the fighters unlike some Assist Trophees before him (Little Mac, Palutena...). This choice can (partly) be justified by the selection of Joker, a new license with similar thematics : mask, self-acceptance and demons from a parallel plan. It would have been impossible to have new Joker AND Skullkid fighters in only 5 DLC, because they are too similar from a certain point of view.
But that isn't really what makes Joker or Ravio unique. Yeah they both conceal their identity, but so do Batman and Deadpool but no one would ever suggest they are not unique from each other. Joker is a Phantom Thief who steals hearts and fights alongside his other social outcast friends using knives, guns, and personas. Ravio is a shop keeper who rents and sells weapons to help the hero that he could never be because he lacks courage and would fight using various magic rods and items. Joker has a stylish mask and overcoat, Ravio has a goofy rabbit hood and an oversized scarf. I acknowledge that they both conceal their identity but disagree that this would be anything that would keep Ravio out of the DLC.

Though they do specifically call it out as her ALBW look.
 

TheCJBrine

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Ravio have the same probleme as with SkullKid:
Skullkid would be legitimate to become a Smash fighter : legend mask, unique and different Zelda character concept, solid fanbase... Off, he didn't join the fighters unlike some Assist Trophees before him (Little Mac, Palutena...). This choice can (in part) be justified by the selection of Joker, a new license with similar thematics : mask, self-acceptance and demons from a parallel plan. It would have been impossible to have new Joker AND Skullkid fighters in only 5 DLC, because they are too similar from a certain point of view.
This is the silliest and most out-of-thin-air argument I have ever read on this site.

I'm starting to think you're simply trolling.

Skull Kid & Ravio would use much different powers from Joker, and not adding a character simply because "they both have masks" is ridiculous. That's not how they select characters, they select them simply because they think they'd be good choices/great fan-favorites, but they can't add every fan-favorite/good choice. Also, Sakurai and Nintendo basically just add whoever they want, and there literally isn't any rules other than the 3 or so Sakurai has mentioned in the past.

-also, Zelda uses a combination of ALttP and ALBW, they even confirmed it.
 
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Ornl

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not adding a character simply because "they both have masks" is ridiculous.
Where did you read that it's simply because "they both have masks" ? My original comment is this one :
Chance : 0%
- Not original : Ravio is a 4th Link, while the community prefers Skullkid ou Impa. He hides his identity... like Joker.
- Not iconic : Ravio isn't an hero, nor a Zelda recurrent character. Sheik ? Unlike Sheik, Ravio isn't from an iconic game with as much success as Ocarnia of Time or Breath of the Wild. Sheik is one of the few counter-examples of non-legitimacy in Smash. Two counter-examples would be too much.
- Non-promotional : Outside Hyrule Warriors, Ravio appeared 6 years ago. He already exists in Spirit. There is no reason to include it in DLC and not in the basic game.
 

TheCJBrine

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Where did you read that it's simply because "they both have masks" ? My original comment is this one :
well tbh I was referring to your Joker & Skull Kid comparison and I just assumed that's what you were getting at since you've done this before with plants/plant-like characters and reptiles.

I can understand those points tho (except for the Joker comparison you add in there as well) even if I don't agree, although Ravio is really only a Link in how he looks minus his hair being black.
 
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Nabbit
Chance: 0.1%
To this day we still haven't had a one-off Zelda character who's not related to the Triforce trio and I don't that changing for now. Ravio isn't even the most popular or relevant out of those characters. Link between worlds was quite a while ago.


Want: 40%
Still, while I have no major attachment to the franchise I do think Zelda is deserving of a newcomer. I'd honestly be fine with any non-FE first-party character who's a Spirit just to destroy that theory of them deconfirming. I don't think Ravio would be my first choice however.


Dark Matter: 2.89%
Metal Sonic x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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Dark Link

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Well, Zelda is definitely hurting for characters...

Still, Ravio, like many of the names put up for ‘next Zelda character,’ has been featured in all of one game so far. And it’s a handheld Zelda game, which never seem to get the same amount of focus as the console ones.

Ravio’s basically the answer to “what would you have if Link were a foolish salesman like Beedle instead of a hero?” And as such, the character is antithetical to Link in the first place: cowardly and pessimistic. Like Tingle, he’s whimsical and greedy, and like Beedle, he’s a silly salesman meant to be ‘fun.’ In short, he’s the exact type of character that fans of the cartoon/handheld Zeldas would love, and fans of the gritty/console Zeldas would think is an utter waste of space.

Out of all of the most popular names for Zelda reps: Skull Kid, Midna, Impa, there really isn’t much talk about Ravio. He is more of an ancillary character in the game, designed to be a counterpart to Link himself but also fill the role Beedle would normally have had. He is thus, like Hilda, associated with the dark world. That means that, while the potential for uniqueness is there, anyone who things he can’t possibly be an echo is fooling themselves - and the last thing the Zelda series needs is more clones, particularly clones of Link.

Now LBW did do incredibly well considering it’s a handheld Zelda, and Ravio did make it into Hyrule Warriors (also showing off his kooky “oops I’m such a klutz!” style moveset in the same vein as Tingle). Still, the more gritty Skull Kid and Midna seems to have a bit more clout and more of a fanbase.

Me? No. I’m a full on fan of the grittiness, so any silliness from the handheld Zeldas is unnecessary in my mind. I want to see Midna or Urbosa before any other Zedla characters, and particularly any characters who share Tingle’s sense of humor.
 
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That means that, while the potential for uniqueness is there, anyone who things he can’t possibly be an echo is fooling themselves - and the last thing the Zelda series needs is more clones, particularly clones of Link.
I think that, like most fans of characters who could be echoes I acknowledge that Ravio could be an echo but think that he has so much more to offer than that. Especially since Ravio would have to get in as an echo of Link who already has two semi-clones.

and particularly any characters who share Tingle’s sense of humor.
I think personally I found Ravio's humor to be much less over the top compared to Tingle, who I found to be annoying after he started showing up again and again. I think it's partially because we see that Ravio's goofy side is partially a facade, where he drops it when the situation calls for a more serious response like when confronting Hilda and Link.

But overall I can't really disagree with anything you've said.
 

Ornl

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I just assumed that's what you were getting at since you've done this before with plants/plant-like characters and reptiles.
This is exactly the same problem as concerning Grovyle. My original comment for Grovyle was this one :
Chance : 0%
- Another lizard? Smash Bros has 9/72 reptiles and amphibian (10 with Lucas snake), including the recent King K. Rool and Ridley. 4 of them are already Pokemon. If Smash is a museum of Nintendo games, it should not become a vivarium.
- Another plant creature in DLC? Flora Piranha would not be sufier?
- Another Pokemon? Smash U offers 12 new non-Echo fighters, and it's obvious that each of them will be licensed differently. Incineroar has already taken the slot. In addition, Pokemon has already reached the limit of 8 non-echo representation. This is already the maximum, only the series Mario and Pokemon have reached.
- A non-iconic DLC character? Corrin, Cloud, Ryu, Bayonetta, Joker and probably "Brave" are iconic (or the hero of a new game concerning Corrin).
I find it easy to isolate part of an answer. I agree that the new and original elements of my subjective vision are criticizable. But I do not agree that this serves as a tool for personal attacks. The exchange and the sharing of ideas do not have to finish in trial of intent. Not being in agreement doesn't mean having to emphasize it indignantly. Ignoring an answer with which one disagrees is already a mark of politeness. Debating an answer is a mark of willingness to understand the other. Branding an idea of dumb, silly or by mockery (GoodGrief741 and RealPokeFan11) is a brand that reveals a completely different will.
 

GoodGrief741

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It would have been impossible to have new Joker AND Skullkid fighters in only 5 DLC, because they are too similar from a certain point of view.

Edit : It's the same thing that happens between Isaac and Brave. Isaac didn't have any chance (in part) because of a new RPG character like Erdrick.
They are similar from the point of view of an eldritch abomination with no comprehension of human culture and beyond logic. Or someone without eyes and ears. The similarities are so superficial and cherry-picked that nobody (beyond you) would ever find them similar.

By your logic, Erdrick doesn’t have a chance either, because Joker got in and he’s a new RPG character. But wait, Joker can’t get in either: Chrom and Incineroar already got in, and they’re new RPG characters:

I find it easy to isolate part of an answer. I agree that the new and original elements of my subjective vision are criticizable. But I do not agree that this serves as a tool for personal attacks. The exchange and the sharing of ideas do not have to finish in trial of intent. Not being in agreement doesn't mean having to emphasize it indignantly. Ignoring an answer with which one disagrees is already a mark of politeness. Debating an answer is a mark of willingness to understand the other. Branding an idea of dumb, silly or by mockery (GoodGrief741 and RealPokeFan11) is a brand that reveals a completely different will.
I don’t bother with debating what you say anymore because it doesn’t follow any logic. Seriously, you use conclusions to justify premises. (Ex: there are only villains from the original 8, therefore there is a rule against villains from other franchises). Every ‘rule’ you mention is derived from that kind of faulty and fallacious reasoning.

Not only do you give arguments without any factual basis, but they baffle others by their sheer ridiculousness. The definition of non sequitur is when a conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise it allegedly spawns from, but it’s generally used to refer to random comments that come out of nowhere. What you say satisfies both criteria. You appear to value your comments being original over them being logical.

So yes, I act indignantly. I have no tolerance for the blatant disregard of basic logic. Sorry if it offends you.
 
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TheCJBrine

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This is exactly the same problem as concerning Grovyle. My original comment for Grovyle was this one :

I find it easy to isolate part of an answer. I agree that the new and original elements of my subjective vision are criticizable. But I do not agree that this serves as a tool for personal attacks. The exchange and the sharing of ideas do not have to finish in trial of intent. Not being in agreement doesn't mean having to emphasize it indignantly. Ignoring an answer with which one disagrees is already a mark of politeness. Debating an answer is a mark of willingness to understand the other. Branding an idea of dumb, silly or by mockery (GoodGrief741 and RealPokeFan11) is a brand that reveals a completely different will.
well I'd be more inclined to agree with or understand your points if you didn't make up "facts" like "this character can't get in because it's the same species as/has a similar feature to another character, even if they're completely different otherwise" or other fan-rule type assumptions.

For example, your "Another Pokemon?" point would've been understandable if you didn't act like there was a maximum limit, as if that's fact, when Sakurai nor anyone else has said any such thing. They might be reluctant to add new fighters from the same series if there's already a lot, as is shown by Sakurai being reluctant to add Corrin, but there being a true limit just sounds like a fan-rule. If they want more characters from a series, and deem them important, they're not gonna throw them in the trash, especially if they're from their biggest series.
 
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I missed a day, ****. Record’s gone. 0 effort time, sorry.
Oh uh, Ravio.
Chance :
The only appearances he’s made have been in Hyrule Warriors and ALBW, where he wasn’t the main charter in either games. Even in ALBW he wasn’t super important, he was pretty much just a merchant despite appearing in marketing. Zelda has a rotating cast, so it seems unlikely Ravio will make any significant future appearances, especially since ALBW in the first place wasn’t one of the big mainline entries. Only way I can see him getting in is if they make a Link Between Worlds sequel and they really want to promote it with Ravio. Plus he’s a spirit.
3%
Want :
I liked ALBW, nice return to form for the top-down entries, and I enjoyed Ravio as a character. He could have an interesting moveset too. But there are other Zelda characters I might prefer.
55%

Noms:
Uhhhh
Rerate 2B x5 I guess.
 
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The main thing holding my want rating back is that there are a ton of other Zelda characters I'd prefer to see make it in first.
However, there are other Zelda characters I want in first before Ravio.
But there are other Zelda characters I might prefer.
I'm going to be hearing this in my nightmares tonight, curse you Zelda franchise for having too many great characters!

lol I jest, at least you aren't saying he's just another Link.
 

Ornl

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By your logic, Erdrick doesn’t have a chance either, because Joker got in and he’s a new RPG character.
It isn't "my logic", its your stigmatization. These are the words of Sakurai who disqualified Isaac by his condition of random RPG guy. Erdrick doesn't come from a simple random RPG. Joker isn't a simple guy...

Every ‘rule’ you mention is derived from that kind of faulty and fallacious reasoning.
It isn't "my rule", its your stigmatization. The observations I make reveal details, like revealing the constancy that there doesn't exist any non-Echo and non-ally villain that isn't attached to any of the original 8 fighters. This isn't a rule, it is an observation of regular constancy. It doesn't make law, but can nonetheless constitute a part of a complete estimate of probabilty.

I have no tolerance for the blatant disregard of basic logic
The Court of Logic severely delivered its verdict !

For example, your "Another Pokemon?" point would've been understandable if you didn't act like there was a maximum limit
There are 12 new non-Echo Fighter in Smash U. Mario and Pokemon have already had theirs. In addition, there are only 3 slots left now, with this promise from Reggie :
"Unique", "different", "who never saw it coming forward", "new to the series", just like Joker from Persona 5" : "this gives you a flavor of how we are approaching the DLC".
Another Pokemon? -> never in Smash U.
 

TheCJBrine

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There are 12 new non-Echo Fighter in Smash U. Mario and Pokemon have already had theirs. In addition, there are only 3 slots left now, with this promise from Reggie :
"Unique", "different", "who never saw it coming forward", "new to the series", just like Joker from Persona 5" : "this gives you a flavor of how we are approaching the DLC".
Another Pokemon? -> never in Smash U.
well I can see Reggie's third and maybe fifth and last comments in those quotes hinting at no Pokemon, but the other ones don't really mean anything for that since a new Pokemon can still be "unique, different, and new to the series," even if one's already a Spirit since he also talked about Waluigi and his fans in the same vein "they have to focus on one character who isn't in Smash..."

Still, though, you present these views of yours as official rules or facts; Skull Kid and Ravio having masks doesn't make them any less unique than Joker, nor does Grovyle being a grass-type and reptile-like make him any less unique than Piranha Plant or Ivysaur since he'd have a unique moveset if they wanted him + he has a much different appearance just like these other characters you're comparing, all of them having obviously different abilities anyway. Ravio would already be much different from Link as well though I can at least sort-of understand the thought of that since he does look like Link aside from hair color...
 
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Ridrool64

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Back in the day, we all mistook him for Nabbit based on a single screenshot. Can't believe it's been... 6 years since?

Chance: I'm considering giving him a hard 0%. He's too far down the Zelda food chain: I can't see him have anything to put himself on the level of Tingle and Impa, or even Ganon, Vaati or Skull Kid. I'll pity him and give him a 1% because hey, Plant was down the food chain. I'm not sure there's much to discuss, sure Ravio could be interesting to see in action but... I dunno. He's also got a Spirit and I wouldn't count on those, at least for now.

Want: Ehh... nothing catches my eye about him, check. Didn't touch A Link Between Worlds and content with just sticking with A Link to the Past, check. But he's not Arle competition so he can't be too bad... 20%.

Sly Cooper x 5, Dark Matter has steep Kirby competiton so I can't really see it... 2.10%, more important and iconic than Ravio but otherwise in a similar position.
 

GoodGrief741

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It isn't "my logic", its your stigmatization. These are the words of Sakurai who disqualified Isaac by his condition of random RPG guy. Erdrick doesn't come from a simple random RPG. Joker isn't a simple guy...


It isn't "my rule", its your stigmatization. The observations I make reveal details, like revealing the constancy that there doesn't exist any non-Echo and non-ally villain that isn't attached to any of the original 8 fighters. This isn't a rule, it is an observation of regular constancy. It doesn't make law, but can nonetheless constitute a part of a complete estimate of probabilty.
Gimme the interview where Sakurai disqualified Isaac due to being ‘a random RPG guy’ and I will mail you a blank check. The balls on some people...

Also, don’t make me laugh with all your talk about constants.

First off, what you do is (at best) inductive reasoning. Basically, the argument boils down to ‘it happened before, thus it will happen again. Thing is, it’s worthless as actual conclusive reasoning, and definitely not ironclad and immune to counterarguments as you appear to think. It’s at best good for probability or plausibility. You give ****ing 0% in chance. People are going to take offense.

And second (oh yeah there’s a second). You only use constants when they suit whatever you want to say. Many of your arguments (there is already a white woman/there is already an RPG character/there are several reptiles) are the opposite: a constant has already been broken, maybe several times, but it can’t be broken again for whatever reason. Do you seriously think that two characters wearing masks make them less unique, be it in the eyes of fans or Sakurai’s?

If Joker having a mask makes him unique, then Sephiroth being the only villain not from the original 8 makes him unique as well. When something happens, it’s a unique thing. When it doesn’t, it’s because of a constant. Your arguments contradict each other.

Back in the day, we all mistook him for Nabbit based on a single screenshot. Can't believe it's been... 6 years since?

Chance: I'm considering giving him a hard 0%. He's too far down the Zelda food chain: I can't see him have anything to put himself on the level of Tingle and Impa, or even Ganon, Vaati or Skull Kid. I'll pity him and give him a 1% because hey, Plant was down the food chain. I'm not sure there's much to discuss, sure Ravio could be interesting to see in action but... I dunno. He's also got a Spirit and I wouldn't count on those, at least for now.

Want: Ehh... nothing catches my eye about him, check. Didn't touch A Link Between Worlds and content with just sticking with A Link to the Past, check. But he's not Arle competition so he can't be too bad... 20%.

Sly Cooper x 5, Dark Matter has steep Kirby competiton so I can't really see it... 2.10%, more important and iconic than Ravio but otherwise in a similar position.
I still mistake Ravio and Nabbit.
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,392
Ravio

Chance - 0.5% - With the exeception of Hyrule Warriors, Ravio hasn't appeared outside of his debut game. Zelda has a thing for major one-off characters, and Ravio seems be a part of the pack. While they could go back to referencing him again, until cercumstances change I don't see that happening

Want - 50% - I'll admit, I haven't given much thought on him. He's inofensive, I guess. I would much rather have Tetra and Vaati, though.

Prediction

Dark Matter - 3.24% - Dee is around...

Nominations

Monster Hunter X5


These are the words of Sakurai who disqualified Isaac by his condition of random RPG guy.
Can you find a source for this? I don't recall Sakurai ever talking about why Isaac was never chosen to be playabe.

It isn't "my rule", its your stigmatization. The observations I make reveal details, like revealing the constancy that there doesn't exist any non-Echo and non-ally villain that isn't attached to any of the original 8 fighters. This isn't a rule, it is an observation of regular constancy. It doesn't make law, but can nonetheless constitute a part of a complete estimate of probabilty.
Isn't this the definition of the "False Cause" logical fallacy? Just because the original 8 are the only series to have villains playable does not mean that the only villains playable can only be from the original 8. It is faulty logic, and thus should be ignored.

In fact, your original cluster of arguments reminds me of "The Texas Sharpshooter" logical fallacy. You can't randomly decide that certain data points are more important than others. You seem to randomly grab things that are relatively minor in comparison to major points and then argue that they are deciding factors.

Most of us, or at least me, don't have an issue with you saying Ravio is unlikely, as that would be the "Fallacy Fallacy". What we do take issue with is how you are argumenting. This looks like you need to find the underlying cause of why first.

This is a particularly good example of this: The major villains from the original 8 are some of the most iconic ones in gaming, so they get in. While they are more villains, they are not as popular compared to the original 8. Until there is a villain that can rival the ones already in on recognizability, they are unlikely to become playable.

We have a fact (the original 8 series are the only ones to have their villains playable), a reason (the original 8 have more iconic villains than others), and conclusion (only iconic villains get in smash). You, however, are skipping the reason and going straight to the conclusion. There is often a reason behind patterns, so find them and argue from there.
 

Neosonic97

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Joined
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This is a particularly good example of this: The major villains from the original 8 are some of the most iconic ones in gaming, so they get in. While they are more villains, they are not as popular compared to the original 8. Until there is a villain that can rival the ones already in on recognizability, they are unlikely to become playable.
We have a fact (the original 8 series are the only ones to have their villains playable), a reason (the original 8 have more iconic villains than others), and conclusion (only iconic villains get in smash). You, however, are skipping the reason and going straight to the conclusion. There is often a reason behind patterns, so find them and argue from there.
Well put.

I mean, I don't think a lot of people would argue if another villain got in, as long as there was enough to merit them getting in. The issue is these are few and far between. Like... the main one I can think of off the top of my head would be good ol' Dr. Ivo "Eggman" Robotnik, Sonic's arch-nemesis.

Also, wait a sec. Original 8? I don't recall there being a Pokemon villain there because Pokemon themselves aren't intrinsically evil (NO, Mewtwo doesn't count).
 
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Branding an idea of dumb, silly or by mockery (GoodGrief741 and RealPokeFan11) is a brand that reveals a completely different will.
I'm gonna be blunt here, the reason why we laugh at your arguments is because they're stupid as hell. What's next? Banjo can't get in because Ness and Lucas have shorts on? If you want to use these arguments, then you should use them for your want score instead of chance score. This case is closed. I was going to give an explanation, but GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 explained it well enough. Onto my rating for Ravio now... with common sense.

Purple Chungus
Chance: 1%
I don't feel like Ravio is gonna make this one. He isn't very popular, and the approach Sakurai and his team are taking with the Fighter Pass really hurts his chances. He also hasn't appeared in many Zelda games at all, outside of Hyrule Warriors and his home game. He also has a lot of competition within his own series, such as the Champions from BotW for example, and there are many Zelda characters that are much more popular. I can't imagine him causing much hype either with his reveal...

Want: 60%
While he is another version of Link, he's much different from the 3 that we have in the game, and he hides the Link in him behind a mask, which I'm totally cool with. He would have a unique moveset, and I think someone made a cool fanmade reveal trailer back in the Smash 4 days.
Though I prefer other Zelda characters, I'd be fine with Ravio joining even though he's really Link under the mask.

Dark Matter: 3.62%

Our lord and savior Magikarp x5

(BTW I lost the tourney because I was using the dual Joycons without the grab and shield buttons remapped. Even worse, I lost to a Wii Fit Trainer.)
 
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Ornl

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Messages
75
you present these views of yours as official rules or facts
It isn't "my presentation", its your stigmatization. The views given are my intuitive opinion, because this thread is asking opinions. The opinion (ex: a second masked character hiding his identity on 6 new DLC) is not imposed, and does not need to be pointed at "silly".

You can't randomly decide that certain data points are more important than others. You seem to randomly grab things that are relatively minor in comparison to major points and then argue that they are deciding factors.
This looks like you need to find the underlying cause of why first.
It isn't "my decision", its your stigmatization. I have already commented on the subjects of trial of intent and observations of details above.

Sephiroth being the only villain not from the original 8 makes him unique.
It's your Court of Logic reasoning.
 

PeridotGX

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Ravio Lee

Chance - 1%. With an all 3rd Parties pass looking very likely, there's no real reason to add him. If they were to add a Zelda one off, someone like a Champion would probably make more sense. We even already have a character from the ALTTP/ALBW style, so another may be redundant.

Want: 35%. I played ALBW, so I would recognise Ravio. Him using the Rental items could lead to a pretty unique moveset.

Noms: Maxwell x5
 
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Ok I’m just gonna step in quick since I’m busy but this is getting a little too crazy.

O Ornl you’re arguements tend to have fallacies but you call out any criticism as a fallacy or stigmatization. Some of your criteria for judgement also is suspect in my own opinion. Furthermore, many of your statements attempt to be Empirical but are normative. For instance, saying we can’t get Isaac because Erdrick (who still ain’t confirmed) because of your logic does not work when you state it without significant evidence to back it.

That being said cool it a bit on both sides. This is getting a bit too testy and a little mean spirited for my tastes. I would prefer to keep this in the thread but this has been going on a bit. I would say chill to all at this tbh. Drop it.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
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Also, wait a sec. Original 8? I don't recall there being a Pokemon villain there because Pokemon themselves aren't intrinsically evil (NO, Mewtwo doesn't count).
I was using his terms, as he was the one to use the "original 8" reasoning. I mean, it's not like it's the only series without a villain (see Yoshi).

It isn't "my presentation", its your stigmatization. The views given are my intuitive opinion, because this thread is asking opinions. The opinion (ex: a second masked character hiding his identity on 6 new DLC) is not imposed, and does not need to be pointed at "silly".
This thread doesn't just ask for opinions. This is also intended as a debate platform, where we can argue for or against each other's opinions. If we find your logic poor or disagreeable, than you can expect someone to argue against you. You have to make sound arguments, or no one will take you seriously and we will end up debating on this again.
 

GoodGrief741

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It's your Court of Logic reasoning.
It isn’t "my reasoning", it’s your stigmatization.

Wow, it’s really easy to refute claims with non sequitur ad hominems, no wonder people do it!

Also, if that’s the only thing you managed to reply to my post, the writing’s on the wall here.
 
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TheCJBrine

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welp I would rate Ravio but I'm not really sure what to say for chance so good luck y'all.

I wouldn't mind his inclusion though and would think it'd be cool if he got in, as I liked A Link Between Worlds and would play it again except I lost it when my family moved houses...maybe I'll get another copy someday. I would prefer Skull Kid tho but I don't think "reps" are a thing, it's just who Sakurai and Nintendo want.
 

ryumo

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 19, 2018
Messages
562
I'm going to stay away of the discussions, some seem a bit weird.

Ravio AKA Purple Link

Chance: 5~10%
It would be cool to have a new TLoZ rep, right now the only picks are pretty much Zelda, Ganondorf and Link. It is difficult to think about new reps outside one-shoot characters as, outside the trio, the series has few recurring characters like Impa, Tingle and Beedle. Impa is a good option as well, but she is pretty inconsistent, she is a dashing protector in some games while in others she can't fight at all. Tingle can bring something cool, but sadly he is seen weird by the fanbase. Beedle pretty much can't fight at all.

Ravio as a one-shoot character is quite unique as he is an alternate Link. If we think about previous Zelda games, particularly the multiplayer ones, he is pretty much player 4. Considering that the only Zelda reps are related to the Zelda trio, he might be a bit more attractive to the developers as he would be technically another Link.

With all this, I still don't think he has much of a chance considering there maybe a few more popular Zelda rep options. And even if he is another version of Link, he might be seen as a different character altogether making his relationship with Link a bit moot. His chances might vary if there are new projects involving him in some way.

Want: 60%
TLoZ is pretty much my favorite franchise. Its always great to explore Hyrule, fight legions of monsters, solve puzzles, play with your arsenal, to ultimately save the kingdom from their impending doom. ALBW offered an unique take to the Zelda Franchise, by returning to the Hyrule of a previous game where we visit an alternate take on the dark world of the previous game.

Ravio offers a Link that is pretty much only focused on his arsenal, his moveset could showcase a lot of the items that currently don't appear like the magic hammer or the rods. Storywise he is quite likeable and I don't put him higher due to me liking a few other TLoZ reps more.

Nom. Style Savy Rep x 5. Let's get over with this one.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
182
Ravio

Chance - 0: Nope. Only 2 game appearances and no fan demand. He also doesn't really fit Reggie's statement at all. Like, sure, nobody would really call Ravio being in the game, but I don't think random side characters are who he meant by characters you'd never see coming

Want - Abstain

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5
 
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I was using his terms, as he was the one to use the "original 8" reasoning. I mean, it's not like it's the only series without a villain (see Yoshi).
Huh, I always saw Kamek as the villain of the Yoshi series. And even for Pokemon, I always saw Meowth as a villain, mainly due to it's role in the show...

Anyways, onto the rating of today.

Link in the Dark World

Chance: 1%
Oh gee, where do I begin? Well, I suppose I could start with the Zelda series getting treated very much like the Kirby series, in which other characters tend to get passed over due to an existing mindset on how the series should be represented. There are quite a few characters that have been missing and still are missing. The biggest offender? Impa. Someone who, yes, often has many forms throughout the series, does have quite the role more times than not. Other characters who reoccur often, like Skull Kid and Tingle. Heck, Tingle even has his own spin-off games, even if they are from some time ago. In terms of non-recurring characters though, Midna and Ghirahim fans would prefer Ravio to take a number. The cherry on top? DLC appears to be a third party venture this time. Ravio does have recency though, but not as good of recency as a BotW character.

Want: 20%
Eh... I've dabbled with his character a bit in Hyrule Warriors, but then again, I've played nearly every character in HW at some point. I suppose what bothers me the most about him is that, despite the mask, I know he's another Link, and with Zelda's cast of characters, I'd kind of like to see another character altogether, not another Link such as Ravio or Linkle. I'd prefer Impa due to her numerous appearances over the years, Skull Kid due to fan demand, or honestly, I wouldn't even mind giving Tingle a shot what with his surprisingly decent spin-offs (I actually used to find him annoying, but over the years, I've mellowed on him, and I've come to see him as an eccentric, over the top, goofball more than a nuisance, though that's more his MM variation). The idea of using the items from Zelda in a character moveset is interesting, I'd love to see TP's Ball n' Chain, but after seeing the beetle and gust bellows as items, the series could very well go that route with other items.

Predictions: Dark Matter
Hmm, due to the beloved trilogy this character comes from, he might give Bandee a run for his money. Then again, Sakurai didn't work on the Dark Matter games, so he's got the same problem Bandana Dee has, ironically enough. 14.35%

Noms: Q*Bert x5
 
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ProfPeanut

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
426
Ravio

Chance: 5%
Another Zelda game, another candidate in the pool of Zelda one-offs. Ravio has the benefits of both an interesting toolset and the technicality of not being outside the recurring trio, but Ultimate Zelda arguably (subtly) represents A Link Between Worlds already. Throw in the fact that the game's a little over five years old already, and there's simply not that much push to represent it.

His chances are essentially tied to whether Nintendo feels like reusing him or not for future Zelda titles, something that he might actually have a better chance at than most of his competitor fellow one-shots. See, Ravio and his shop are an instrumental part in allowing A Link Between Worlds to work nonlinearly, letting players rent or purchase tools that would've otherwise been unlocked in the middle of a predetermined line of dungeons. And given the direction Breath of the Wild seems to be steering the franchise, it's possible that Nintendo might opt to pick a familiar visage to fill in some essential roles over even more brand-new singleton characters. (Well, if they don't pick Beedle instead.) If they don't re-use him, then he's more-or-less in the same rut as all the other one-shots - arguing over who's more deserving/likely/popular than who without any promise that there's even a consideration for them.

Want: 25%
Link with a personality? And an excuse to use the more unfamiliar tools in his moveset? I don't particularly trust Nintendo to fully capitalize on this guy, but I wouldn't mind seeing him get more chances. And hey, we already have three Links; what's a fourth one at this point? A brand-new Zelda rep's still a brand-new Zelda rep, no matter who it is (because literally no one else besides Impa is going to do a good job of representing the franchise as a whole anyway).


Prediction
Dark Matter: 2.2%

Nominations
Undertale representative x5
 
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DaUsername

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One-off Zelda character
Chance: 0.1%
I think Sakurai has made his stance on Zelda one-offs pretty clear, they aren't happening. This one doesn't even have the fanbase that some other Zelda characters do.
Want: 1%
I'm all for more Zelda characters (the series deserves it.) But there's many more interesting choices than this one.

Dark Matter prediction: 5%
Noms: Black Mage x5
 
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