Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DLC Edition! Day 242: Reaper (Overwatch)

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Micaiah:

Chance - 3%

Ok so she is decently popular it seems.. But the game she is from is old and I don't really expect for it to be remade soon. Oh and Sakurai did say he was reluctant to add more FE characters. If we get a new character I doubt she will be it but hey she definitely has potential.

Want - 15%

Ok, I haven't played any Fire Emblem but she seems like she would be unique and fun. In fact I think a lot of FE characters would be fun but all we have are sword fighters unfortunatley and I would love some variety which Micaiah certainly brings to the table. However, of course I want other characters before her.

Nominations: Vaati x5
 
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ProfPeanut

Smash Journeyman
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Oct 1, 2008
Messages
410
Micaiah

Chance: 10%
I don't think either Intelligent Systems or Nintendo really care much for Tellius, certainly not to the point that Micaiah's a likely DLC choice. Path of Radiance/Radiant Dawn characters regularly seem to show up later to Fire Emblem get-togethers than most other continents, more often than not due to fan demand or Ike's popularity than their inherent merits. It wasn't always like this, of course, but that's because Awakening didn't exist yet, or Fates, or whatever it is Three Houses is going to be.

Micaiah as a character is alright, but she's hardly super-exceptional, nor inspires a really fantastic moveset to warrant inclusion. She doesn't have the option of echoing off Robin either.

Want: 33%
Compared to the usual Fire Emblem lord, she's fairly unique. Compared to every other video game character, though, she's not who I'd call a standout.


Prediction
Arle Nadja: 12%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5
 
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Joined
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Georgia
Micaiah
Chance: 0%
She doesn't have anything in her favor outaide of being popular within her franchise. If Nintendo made the DLC choices, they're each probably going to be a bigger deal than her.
Want: 0%
There is nothing interesting about this character. I have no history with them. I have nothing to gain from her inclusion.
 

CaptainAmerica

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OMG This is the longest Smash has gone without a new FE character!

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

I don't hate Fire Emblem. Sure, the artstyle isn't my cup of tea and I don't like JRPGs on principle, but Ike and Robin are both really really cool.

But...

I'm about done with them getting served everything since "Every game has a fully new cast, so it's okay for FE to have loads of one-shots! But the Zelda side characters are all trash barely worthy of being assists, and they're only in one game anyway."

Put simply, Micah's got nothing going for her than half of the other Fire Emblem characters we rate. She was the star of a game...that also starred Ike (and gave him a badass new look), so that game is technically repped. She uses a fully magic based kit...like Zelda. She also showed up in Heroes...as did Celica, who's more popular and more recent.

In short, she really has nothing that makes her stand out from the FE crew, or the rest of Smash. She faces a lot of internal competition, mostly from Celica and Edelgard, for the next slot. Not to mention that DLC is looking all third party, so the only chance a Ninty character has is to be an echo. I guess this is the one time that the necessity of being a unique Fire Emblem character is hurting her, as Celica and Edelgard could technically function as Robin and Ike echoes (whether it's lore appropriate or not is another story, but it could end up working) ...and Edel even has the benefit of being situated for promotion, so she's much more likely to get unique.

Oh, and I'll finish this off with the standard arguments: She's got a spirit already. She's redundant. Two out of five DLC characters are already JRPGs, so let's get some diversity in.

Nom: More DLC x5
 

Calamitas

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Well then, Micaiah. . .

Chance: 3%
Yeeaah, she's most likely not happening. Nintendo seems to be quite intent to push newer Fire Emblem games, leaving any pre-Awakening character in the dust.

Want: 75%
I admit, I'ven ever actually played either of the Tellius games. I only got into the series with Awakening, and Nintendo seems to be fully intent to never re-release anything, ever, these days unless it's a port. But from what I've seen, she's interesting enough, being primarily a light mage, which would be distinct from Robin, still.
 

PeridotGX

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Michaiah

Chance: 1%. She isn't very likely. If we're to get another FE character, it would be Celica or a 3H Character.

Want: Abstain. I've never played FE10.

Noms: Grovyle x5
 

RealPokeFan11

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A Fire Emblem character!? We all know what to do... (inhales)
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Chance: 5% (I'm being generous here)
Want: 20%

Pros:
-She's hot
-She's one of the main lords of the Fire Emblem series

-She did surprisingly decent in the Smash Ballot, even beating out Sora in a poll according to Troykv Troykv
-Unique moveset potential (and no sword!)

Cons:
-Is a spirit
-Is irrelevant as of now
-Another FE character
-Sakurai, and a big chunk of the Smash Community are growing tired of FE characters
-Three Houses would get prioritized over Radiant Dawn if we were to get another FE character

-Radiant Dawn is already represented with Ike, so it's unlikely that it will get another rep
-The fighters pass is leaning towards surprise characters that would cause a major hype explosion. Micaiah doesn't fit this bill.

It's not looking good for Micaiah here, but I gave her extra points due to being an important character in the series. She also has a lot of moveset potential and doesn't carry a sword, so that factors into both chance and want. Her want score, despite me being done with FE characters for now, is higher than a 0, because I see a lot of potential here, and she feels important enough to include into the game.

Damn... I was late this time. Be sure to thank my sleep deprivation and the dizzy spell I had this morning that prevented me from going to school. I'm better now, but Jesus Christ it was awful.

Arle Nadja 2.31%

Reaper x5
 
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Flyboy

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TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom On the subject of rewarding discussion or cutting down abstention, maybe Want should be exempt from an Abstain unless it's a total abstain? I don't know, I just find "Abstain, I've never played this game" incredibly lazy and detrimental to the thread as a whole when in this day and age it's absurdly easy to look up basic info about a character and form an opinion colored by more than our own myopic desires - especially when you have people make passionate long posts about the benefits X character would bring to the series. I know it's tricky and you don't want to punish people but maybe nominations could go to 1 for Want abstentions? Or 10 for those who do more than abstain?

I don't know the solution, I just think a thread full of actual discussion to be better than a thread full of people not bothering to read up on a character because they want to nominate. I don't know if there's an easy solution.
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Apprentice
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Oct 30, 2018
Messages
147
Chance:0%: If we were gonna get a Radiant Dawn rep it would have been Black Knight. Plus we would probs get a Three Houses FE char if we got any FE char.
Want:0%: Only fe char I want is Black knight. FE has to much representation.
No.Nominations
Shy Guy x5
 
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Artix

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
167
Micaiah

Chance: 1%
Like I said during Merric's day, I don't think we're getting a FE character outside of SoV or Three Houses. The good thing is that she's not another generic swordfighter as she mainly uses magic and she certainly is an unexpected character to my own eyes. Who knows at this point, maybe they could add Micaiah instead of Celica or Edelgard, but it could go either way.

Want: 80%
Any Fire Emblem character that is not a swordfighter is a huge plus for me. Also, Micaiah happens to be one of my favorite character in Fire Emblem and it would make me happy to see her in Smash as a playable character. But as it is, they might pick someone from Three Houses or SoV for DLC.

Arle Nadja Prediction: 6.13%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5
 

DaUsername

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Michigan
Chance: 0.1%
She isn't from the most recent game. She doesn't use a sword. She's not popular. She is a spirit. She won't be playable.
Want: 0%
I've already gone over this several times, but I guess I have to say it again. We don't need any more Fire Emblem characters, we have enough.

Arle prediction: 5%
Noms: Poochy x5
 

Icelerate

Smash Cadet
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
38
Chance: 2.5%

Want: 100%

Micaiah's design is quite unique considering the number of silver haired characters in the Smash roster. There aren't many magic users compared to sword users. Even though she's another FE character, her character is quite different and her fighting style is too. A lot of people wanted BK just because he was a villain which makes him very different character wise even though he'd be just another sword user but while Micaiah isn't a villain, the fact she stands out as a protagonist in ways that others do not mean that the same logic can apply to her.

I don't think she has much of a chance due to the limited DLC slots and the criticism that the two FE DLC characters got so if FE does get DLC, it will most likely be one character more popular than her and/or more recent than her.
 

Icedragonadam

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Micaiah

Chance: 1%
-As I said before I don't think any of the DLC will be 1st party.
-She's another FE character when we already have 7 and Sakurai did acknowledge the amount of FE characters we did have when Corrin was added.
-Even disregarding that she's not a very enticing character for DLC when it comes to the general audience who will but the DLC.

Want: 0%

-Nope please no.
-I'd prefer more 3rd party characters and NO MORE FE characters(same with Pokemon and Mario).

Arle Prediction: 6.88%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5
 
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Micaiah

Chance - 10%

With every new Fire Emblem game that comes out, there will always be new popular characters who will receive the most limelight. More recent character will have a better shot. She does have a very slim chance even though Fire Emblem has seven characters in.

Want - 85%

Micaiah is my most wanted Fire Emblem character despite my limited knowledge of the franchise. I have known about her since the Brawl day and I made a roster over 10 years ago and put her on it. She has a pretty design and having another magic user can be a plus. I hope to play Radiant Dawn and experience her skill set and character someday.
 

Icedragonadam

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 3%

-She's definitely from one of Sega's most popular IPs and would be a great representative for Puzzle games.
-Unfortunately she and every other SEGA rep got their invitation stolen by Joker. And I doubt we'll get a 4th Sega rep.

Want: 90%

-Yes, she's an interesting character
-I played Puyo Puyo and it's a very series(despite not being pro at building 10+ chains, always had trouble with getting to the 2nd floor of building them up)

Rhythym Heaven Girl Prediction: 0.88%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5
 

Nemuresu

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Lip's third-party equivalent:
Chance: 10%-Puyo is popular in Japan, or at least, I assume so, but that seems to be it. I mean, most of her support is due to that one poll PushDustIn made about Japan's most wanted, and even then, the character is still quite "obscure" among requests (and ironically enough, she ranked lower than Joker in that one giant poll Source Gaming made during pre-release). As for being a fourth Sega character, I don't consider it a problem at all, actually, I'd be more concerned at the fact that she's not as well-known as compared to other third-party characters, and same goes for her franchise.
Want: 20%-My only experience with Puyo Puyo was Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine (which didn't even have her), and that was when I was like 8 years old. Also, in my brief search looking for moveset potential, I got the impression that she'd be a generic mage with magical girl aesthetics, which, depending on how they're pulled here, could go from me not caring to straight cringing. Granted, since she's not a Fire Emblem character, I won't be glaring cold at her inclusion (unless of course, she turns out to be a cringy magical girl).
Nominations: Dante x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
2,684
What a mouthful, I’ll just call her Liptwo

Chance: 1%
Yeah, we’re not getting a second Sega rep after Joker, but she never had great chances. While her series is pretty famous, she isn’t. At all. What she does have going for her is Japanese popularity and the fact that she isn’t region-exclusive. Out of Sega’s catalogue, I guess if a new series were to join, I’m struggling to find another one more likely than Puyo Puyo (maybe Nights or Shenmue but it’s pretty tied, with stuff like Virtua Fighter coming in close). Still, at this point I find a second Sonic character and even a third one more likely than Arle.

Want: 0%
Nothing personal against her, that zero is borne purely out of the fact that it’s her or Lip and it should be Lip. Plus for third parties, I think being iconic should be a requirement.

Nominations: Professor HectorX5

Rhythm Girl prediction: 3%
 

Sari

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 3%
While I don't think Joker's inclusion completely kills her chances I just don't see us getting another Sega rep. Even if we were to get another Sega character, I feel that Tails or Robotnik would have priority since they are way more iconic and popular.

Want: 35%
I loved Puyo Puyo Tetris and Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine (AKA western Puyo Puyo) was one of my favorite games as a kid. I feel like Arle would be the perfect character to represent Puyo Puyo (and maybe even Tetris).

Rhythm Girl chance prediction: 5.32%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Champion
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Messages
2,684
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I can always count on Sari Sari to prevent me from double posting.

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x269
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260
Reaper (Overwatch) x256
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x246
Concept: More DLC x245
Concept: SNK rep x195
Sephiroth x180


150 - 101

Dark Matter x150
Ravio x145
Professor Hector x142
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x140
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Dante x135
Kat & Ana x130
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Andy (Advance Wars) x125
Shy Guy x125
Concept: World of Light expansion x125
Ryota Hayami x120
Amy Rose x115
Concept: Boss Rush x115
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x115
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x115
Q*Bert x112
Brash the Bear x110
Sly Cooper x110
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x110
Magikarp x109
Poochy x105
Vaati x105
Concept: Style Savvy rep x105
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Cranky Kong x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Hat Kid x90
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x69
Spyro x57

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Ryu Hayabusa x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Poochy, Vaati, and Style Savvy rep strut past 100 noms.

Today’s sole newcomer is Saber, with 5 noms.

shocktarts17 shocktarts17 Would help you out with Ravio, but I did the math and even with the two of us we can’t actually get him into the top 7 at this pace.
 
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Puyo
Chance: 1%
We already have three whole Sega franchises represented. Sure, she has popularity in Japan but that alone isn't going to get you into Smash. She's a bit too obscure in the west to be profitable.


Want: 1%
Mean Bean Machine is pretty fun and perhaps I'll buy Puyo Puyo Tetris in the future but I don't want this DLC roster to be 100% third-party. I'm not really interested in third-parties who are neither popular nor iconic, with one exception. Also Puyo Puyo seems like a game I'd buy for the gameplay rather than its characters. Arle is cute and all but there doesn't seem to be that much to her besides that.


Rhythm girl: 0.95%
100 characters x5
 
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
629
Location
Georgia
Arle
Chance: 95%
SEGA clearly wants to promote it, what with the two titles they suddenly decided to release on the Switch, and Puyo Puyo Tetris suggests they're finding an audience in the US. Arle has consistently been one of Japan's most wanted newcomers for years Puyo Puyo has always been a landmark of the puzzle genre. I'm not going to be surprised if she makes it in.

Want: 0%
I don't like anything about this character or her franchise. I prefer pretty much any puzzle game to Puyo.
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2018
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704
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Indiana
Arle
Chance: 15%

While I think Joker getting in really hurts her chances I don't think it kills them outright. If we look at Joker getting in to be related to Atlus putting a bunch of games on Nintendo consoles and even doing their SMTxFE crossover it may be that Sega had someone else they wanted to put in before Nintendo came to get Joker. That said she has direct competition from Sonic's cast who have tons of support on both sides of the ocean.

Want: 35%
While I have no real attachment to the character since I've never played her games she does check a lot of boxes in what I would like to see in a 3rd party rep. I personally would prefer the next Sega rep to be Tails/Eggman/Shadow but Arle offers a magic based move set while not being another hyper-realistic 3rd party with no Nintendo history.

Prediction: Rhythm Girl 1.2%
Nominations: Ravio x5

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 never tell me the odds.

But in all seriousness it's fine we'll catch the next wave.

TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom since every character who is getting nominations is supposed to have a support thread would it be possible to link it in the post starting their day so people can use it to do a little research?
 
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Ridrool64

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Jun 21, 2013
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Of course it starts after I go to sleep.

Today’s Title Joke: Not today! Not because I can’t think of good material, but because I will not do this since today is the day I’ve been waiting for and I respect this character above all others. But if you really need it THAT badly, ask me for one and I’ll deliver at least 8 (though I won’t do more than 24).

If you’re looking for music, well here’s her theme song in various versions. And some extra versions, such as her current (Japanese) actress, Mie Sonozaki, singing it or the main menu theme of Puyo Puyo eSports.


Who the hell is Arle? What’s Puyo Puyo? What was that about a “Madou Monogatari”? What the hell can she do?
Arle Nadja is the main character of both of these franchises, former in the latter case. As far as I’m concerned, she’s the Mario/Ryu/Cloud of Puzzle games, specifically Match-3 type, and that’s not an exaggeration. (Okay, it might kinda be an exaggeration).


She is a 16 year old girl who lives in a world of magical creatures, this isn’t that special. Although the magical creatures in this world, like a dragon woman named Draco Centauros, an alaskan pollock with human limbs called Suketoudara, a skeleton obsessed with tea known as Skeleton T, and many more, have more-or-less just as much clout and relevance as the regular people. Arle has been a magician ever since the tender age of 5, passing an extremely dangerous test that makes you ask “why the **** is a 5 year old doing this?”, including seeing her classmates melt and fighting demons. She’s got a kind heart and innocent soul when you haven’t gotten on her nerves, as seen in games where she’s a young girl or has gotten away from the insanity of her world and met new faces, though if you do end up getting on Arle’s nerves she is not afraid to get snarky and critical, especially when she has lost her adorable pet Carbuncle (more below). She’s the sanest member of the original set, and is still one of the most sane characters in the cast.


Her magical talent is spread across a massive variety of spells. She’s a warlock, through and through. A comprehensive list of her magic spells can be found here, though it’s in Japanese and you’ll need to translate it. Most of it is in katakana, so it is the English word directly written in English. I’ll put some of the more memorable and iconic spells in parenthesis. Magic isn’t all she can do, but it is by far the most prominent of her abilities. She’s this powerful for a reason, but it’s outside the scope of this introductory sheet.


  1. Fire elemental magic, such as launching Fireballs. (Fireball)
  2. Ice elemental magic, such as forming storms of ice. (Ice Storm)
  3. Electricity magic, such as lightning bolts from her hands. (Thunder)
  4. Magic that makes her own magic even more powerful, though it causes a stutter every time she uses it. (Diacute)
  5. Light elemental magic, such as beams that have the power of the heavens. (Heaven’s Ray)
  6. Status ailment inflicting magic, which can cause sleep (Heedon), reduce intelligence (Mind Blast/Brain Dumbed), or more.
  7. Defensive magic, such as a spell that can reflect enemy attacks (Revia).
  8. Various other spells, such as Judgement/Jugem, a very powerful magic attack, Warp, which can teleport her, Ruipanko, which can do various things, including making her a powerful protective barrier, Owanimo, which is the catalyst for the Puyo matches, and Healing, which can restore her HP.
  9. Bayoeen deserves its own section. As by far the most memorable and notable spell in her library, there is nary a game in which she can’t use it. It is, in most Madou games, a paralysis spell that keeps the enemy from moving. In Puyo Puyo, and at least Saturn Madou, it is her most powerful attack, and a maneuver that takes many incarnations.
    1. A storm of flowers, as seen in every Sega-era Puyo game, like in Madou Monogatari.
    2. A burst attack emanating from Arle herself. This is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo 4, as well as Saturn Madou before the latter becomes a storm of Garbage Puyo.
    3. A toss up of cosmic objects, which is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo SUN.

She has a pet… rabbit… called Carbuncle, who used to be the pet of Satan, lord of hell. Carbuncle has a gem in his head that can fire lasers, and a long tongue that is also prehensile. If Arle and Carbuncle have any three things in common, it’s their magic (seemingly, Carbuncle can do every spell that Arle can in most games he’s playable), their love of curry, and having mixed at best feelings on Satan. If I have to talk about any of the major Puyo cast, it’s gotta be Satan, since he’s (for a very complicated reason that is beyond the scope of this introductory guide) got the hots for Arle, who wants no part of whatever goofy scheme he’s cooked up to win her over. He used to be the main antagonist of the series, though he’s rarely, if ever, a bad guy, and these days is more often helpful than antagonistic.


Arle’s history goes as far back as 1989, 30 years ago, but it’s split across two different game series. Madou Monogatari, the first of these game series, and the parent of the second one, is an RPG that is only connected based on the characters. The gameplay traditionally plays like a dungeon crawler, and the gimmick is that instead of numbers, you have to use Arle’s expression to determine how healthy she is (something that is recurring throughout Puyo, from Madou Monogatari 2 all the way to Puyo Puyo Chronicle, is that characters react to how well they’re doing or if they’re about to die), though later games play like a more traditional JRPG with overworld movement and visible statistics. The primary reason to play them is for the characters, mostly. I said that Arle is the former main character of Madou Monogatari: that series isn’t owned by SEGA, but by Compile Heart, the successor to the original Compile that created both. The series has moved on without its former cast, and created a new one to take its place.


The more famous of the two, and a spinoff of the Madou Monogatari franchise, Puyo Puyo was born in the gaming world in the year 1991. Two slime creatures, in a pair, known as Puyo, fall from the sky. Your task is to make your opponent top out while making sure that you don’t yourself, though there have been several changes to the rules over the years, and all of them are treated as separate modes. Initially, it was little more than a rip-off of Dr. Mario (self admitted by the creator), with two features: Endless, and Mission Mode. But when it got a port to Arcades, it got a story mode and multiplayer: the multiplayer made the series a Japanese sensation, though it wouldn’t do so yet: still, Compile had a working formula on their hands, and all they had to do was perfect it. And, in Puyo Puyo 2 (1994), they did. With new mechanics such as neutralizing incoming garbage, All Clears that gave you more attack power, and quality of life fixes such as double rotation and two piece preview, the series hit the big time with this game, quickly establishing Compile as one of the leaders of the arcade market. To this day, the ruleset of Puyo Puyo 2 is the competitive standard, and it is still common to see Puyo tournaments officially hosted by SEGA (in Japan).


Now is the time to address the not so noble things, such as the lack of unaltered releases and the death of Compile. Back in the 90’s, video games were still seen as a boy’s material in most of the western world, and thus it was feared that Arle could be bad for sales of the game, being a female protagonist. Your first experience with Puyo Puyo, if any, may have very well been Dr. Robotnik’s Mean Bean Machine (1993), Kirby’s Avalanche/Ghost Trap (1995), or various other versions of the original that did not feature the cast created from Madou Monogatari. And despite being massive, Compile somehow managed to **** it up massively and go bankrupt, not that the series was getting worse (though Puyo Puyo SUN, 1996, and Puyo Puyo 4, 1999, were not as popular as Puyo 2 but rarely considered poor in quality) but they simply made a really bad business decision. To try and save themselves, they sold Puyo Puyo to SEGA in 1998, intending to buy it back when they made enough money, before 2001 when they would lose the rights to make the games entirely. They ended up going bankrupt.


SEGA’s tenure came with massive changes. Firstly, the series ended up in the hands of Sonic Team, the current devs of Puyo Puyo to this day. While the first game they made (Minna de Puyo Puyo, which they didn’t really make, but outsourced to somebody else) was very similar to Compile’s reign, when Puyo Puyo Fever launched in arcades in 2003, something was very different. The art style was more poppish, Arle’s hair color was different, and her friends were gone. She was no longer the star: Amitie took over the spotlight (Arle has since regained it after some time playing footsies with this title from Amitie and Ringo), and there was a whole new cast of faces, some totally new like the chipper, ignorantly murderous ghost girl Yu (later revealed to have a brother named Rei), some spiritual successors such as the gay talking skeleton Oshare Bones, who likes fashion instead of tea. Even the rules now featured individualised character Puyo or attack stats, and a new Fever mode that allowed losing players to mount comebacks. A bold move, SEGA also proved to release Puyo Pop Advance (Minna) and Puyo Pop Fever in the west. This did not work out, since at the time SEGA of America had a massive Sonic boner that they could not subside for Puyo and barely bothered, if they ever did, to advertise it.


Puyo Puyo would see many releases, all of them Japan only, none of them particularly successful but good enough to keep the series doing decently well. Arle’s friends started to come back in 2006’s Puyo Puyo!, or 15th Anniversary as the west calls it, as the series explains this as world hopping. Then Puyo Puyo!! Quest came out on phones in 2013, and it turned the series’ luck around. This is a game that is unlike traditional Puyo Puyo: it’s mostly singleplayer with a good amount of multiplayer, and the way the game is set up is totally different: you pop Puyo by touching them, in order to power up your characters as they go on Quests. The game is also a gacha game, though it never gets to money grubbing extents (in my time), as the game can easily be played F2P to very satisfactory results. To say that it broke the bank would be an understatement: it still retains this title to this day. The series would hit the ****ing jackpot in 2017: Puyo Puyo Tetris, originally released in Japan back in 2014, got a port to Nintendo Switch that came with an English localization, not to mention Sonic Mania featuring it as a boss battle and unlockable game mode. The game did very well for itself despite everything, and to this day seems to be going on with no signs of slowing down (then again, Bottle Episode came out in October of last year).


If you’re curious as to how much Puyo you can get on Nintendo systems, just for the record, the Virtual Boy is the only Nintendo console that lacks a Puyo game of any kind, although there are not enough Nintendo consoles to have one version of every game without overlap (the Wii/DS/3DS has to have at least 2). Madou, by contrast, only had a few Nintendo releases. The series has been going on for 30 years composite, and 28 only counting Puyo. Total sales of Puyo break 25 million, though whether or not this number includes Quest sales I do not know. Either way, it makes it one of the more profitable series and SEGA’s number 2 (Sonic curbstomps everything else they’ve got.)


---
I had a write-up planned out for her today, but it was made prior to Joker's reveal. While it's useless as a whole NOW, it's still got some very solid points:



  • While nowhere near on the level of, say, Dragon Quest, Puyo Puyo is still a pretty big series in its home country.
  • The series has been going on since its inception, and shows no sign of coming to an end (outside of, say, Sonic Team being destroyed, but that's worst case scenario). It is both long-standing and relevant.
  • Thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris, she is nowhere near as much of an unknown over here as she used to be, although the series isn't very big here yet. Since that came out not too far away from Persona 5's English launch, I'd say it factors in. Thanks to Puyo Puyo being confirmed for SEGA Ages worldwide, at the very least SEGA now thinks Puyo in the west has a potential future, in case anybody thought that Puyo Tetris was a one-time thing, though this won’t specifically confirm her since it happens after eSports.
  • Speaking of, because she's technically in a Tetris game, she can technically represent Tetris with a character without needing to do something incredibly crazy (though L block or Tetris Man work). She'd take priority over Ringo and Tee because they're not as iconic, nor as popular, and don't have legacy or as much to stand out with.
  • She's got plenty to help her stand out from the crowd: magic is still a rarity among the cast, a chaining mechanic, Carbuncle, the titular Puyo, and that assumes Sega doesn't allow Sakurai to tap into Madou. With it, she's got lots of potential.
  • Last and least, puzzle games are seriously hurting for characters, and we're more or less down to two at this point.
  • eSports is irrelevant because Xenoblade 2 is too new by release date. If it were to matter, however, then it could potentially be a deciding factor.
Irrelevant points were: Assuming Nintendo would prioritize characters with good Nintendo history, as to not promote free advertising for Sony and Microsoft, and obviously every point related to the vacant slot in a SEGA character: since, you know, :ultjoker:. As well as her legacy except compared to other Puyo characters, since it seems like new faces are going to be dominant.

I'd say this totals her chance to about 20% in my eyes, since she has lots of good points, but the only major bad point couldn't possibly be worse.

Still, if we are going to get another SEGA rep, with one exception (anybody here know Yakuza? I’m not having that upset happen again), I have absolutely no doubts that it'd be Arle at this point. Joker's just kind of making it a hard sell. And unlike Tails, Arle has to get in ASAP, because if a Round 2 happens then she has to compete with him and Eggman again. A Round 3, she's almost guaranteed, but that's even assuming a round 2 happens, let alone a round 3 which is almost a farce.

---

2424% (Pretend I said 100%)

Unlike my chance, this isn't dated! It's still here.

So. This is it. This is my most wanted character, BY FAR. BY ****ING FAR. Capping the score for want at 100% is bad for me because it’s a ****ing lie that implies I only want her a decent bit more than Banjo and Paper Mario. I’d ban them from ever being in Smash in a heartbeat if it guaranteed Arle. There is no competition here. There is nothing I wouldn’t sacrifice (short of critical gameplay mechanics) to get Arle in this game. I would let Patrick Star’s turds be playable in Smash as the main character and not give half a crap if Arle Nadja was playable. I draw the line at real life offensive stuff (even Arle couldn't soften that blow), but short of that, there’s nothing I’d never take if it meant getting Arle Nadja in, even Son Goku.
Her series deserves more love! That’s part of why I want it to happen. It’s quite fantastic, blending impressive competitive play with a fantastic cast of characters, (almost) all of them quite lovable or enjoyable. They’re the best. I’m not asking for a revival, though I am asking for more localizations...
In particular, make Puyo 2 the standard in the west. Mean Bean Machine and the other game that I’m about to get to use OPP rules, which are extremely dated and horribly represent the series today. Making them less of the standard would be much better.
I really really am a fan of the character. I like her personality. I like her abilities. There’s not much to say, you can’t change who you like, but Arle does bring a strong, sassy side that’s counterbalanced by being capable of genuine kindness and appreciation. She doesn’t take anybody’s ****. She’s good to her pet Carbuncle. She and the situations she gets in are hilarious.
ARLE. VS. KIRBY. This is a dream match for me, possibly around the level of Arle vs. Dr. Eggman, which is technically already possible in Puyo Puyo Quest. It’d be great whether you’d think she’d be out for revenge (like I do) or forgives him for what went down in 1995, which is that he stole her game. Remember the Avalanche? Or the Ghost Trap? That’s what I mean. Kirby’s Super Puyo Puyo Reskin apparently was just going to be Puyo 1 for the SNES before Compile (at the time, the dev team) was approached by Nintendo for the Kirby reskin process.
Y’know, this game could use more mages. Especially all around mages like Arle. The female newcomer selection is a little low right now, and all of them are based on other fighters (yes, Isabelle isn’t an echo, but it’s undeniable that she shares quite a bit with Villager). Arle’s got that covered, too, providing plenty of things to help her stand out.
Oh, and puzzle games are ****ing hurting, literally only having Dr. Mario, who is a clone. She might *not* count, as she herself hails from an RPG series, but she's more known for Puyo Puyo than Madou Monogatari, and that series isn't owned by Sega but by Compile Heart (basically Compile 2). So that'd be a fantastic hole to fix, and since I've never played a Layton game nor am I as interested in Panepon, Arle is my preferred choice.
My love letter to the series would be one that is very long, and respects the entirety of the Puyo Puyo franchise. This will be as involved and barking as I get. There’s nothing I want out of this game except Arle. With her, I will forgive every shortcoming. I will never ask for anybody ever again, I mean I'd continue to support Paper Mario and Banjo and everybody else but with her the roster's totally done. This is not hyperbole. If Arle gets in, I will personally apologise to every Joker main and purchase a copy of Persona 5 for every console I can, even ones I do not own, because I would be that sorry for all of my bitterness at Joker. [That second bit might be hyperbole.] Although that might not be good, because then if she were cut I'd flip. Also, K. Rool who? Olimar who? Mr. Game and Watch who? Insta-main, regardless of moveset functionality or playstyle.

---
Tl;dr

Chance: 20%. Lots of good things going for her, but if anybody got rekt by the Joker whose chances I don't see as nonexistent, it's Arle. (Tails and Eggman were already Spirits). That doesn't mean all of the other points are irrelevant, since we're mostly making the assumption that it will be all different third parties, but still, December 6th was kinda the day everything went wrong for most of SEGA's lineup. And most third parties.

Want: 100%. Read the paragraph above, but just know here that I'm a big fan of the series. I have a lot of apologies for Mr. Amamiya if :ultarle: gets filled in at any point.

Sly Cooper x 5. Rhythm Girl is not liking what the DLC lineup is shaping up to be, so I don’t see her breaking 9.20% chance.

I hope you don’t expect me to give Joker a high satisfaction rating when that happens (as long as Arle’s not in, I’d go negative if it were allowed, and if she does then everybody gets 100%), though I kinda feel a tad bad spite-voting I don’t care. He has enough fans that it wouldn’t be too significant.

Last but not least, you probably don't care I just threw this many words at the screen.
 

RealPokeFan11

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Ar... who? "Arle Nadja"? That's a stupid name.
Chance: 1%
Want: 10%

A SEGA Character that's supposed to be a Tetris rep? Doubt it's gonna happen. Puyo Puyo Tetris is a tiny bit obscure in the west, even though you can buy it on the Switch right now if you want. Also, we already have 3 SEGA characters. Sonic, Bayonetta, and Joker. If we're getting a 4th SEGA rep so soon, it would probably be a second Sonic character, being Tails or Eggman. Also, Arle wouldn't cause a lot of hype because half of the audience would go "Who the hell is "Arle Nadja"?". If we're getting a character to represent the highest selling game of all time, it should be the Tetromino itself. It's iconic, retro, and a joke character all in one pack. It would sell much more than some random girl slapped onto the Tetris name like Lip and Arle Nadja, and sits on the sidelines while she watches you play Tetris. I feel like this choice is questionable, but this is just my opinion after all.

Rhythm Girl 7.35%

Speaking of which: Tetromino x5
(Sorry Reaper)
 
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Of course it starts after I go to sleep.

Today’s Title Joke: Not today! Not because I can’t think of good material, but because I will not do this since today is the day I’ve been waiting for and I respect this character above all others. But if you really need it THAT badly, ask me for one and I’ll deliver at least 8 (though I won’t do more than 24).

If you’re looking for music, well here’s her theme song in various versions. And some extra versions, such as her current (Japanese) actress, Mie Sonozaki, singing it or the main menu theme of Puyo Puyo eSports.


Who the hell is Arle? What’s Puyo Puyo? What was that about a “Madou Monogatari”? What the hell can she do?
Arle Nadja is the main character of both of these franchises, former in the latter case. As far as I’m concerned, she’s the Mario/Ryu/Cloud of Puzzle games, specifically Match-3 type, and that’s not an exaggeration. (Okay, it might kinda be an exaggeration).


She is a 16 year old girl who lives in a world of magical creatures, this isn’t that special. Although the magical creatures in this world, like a dragon woman named Draco Centauros, an alaskan pollock with human limbs called Suketoudara, a skeleton obsessed with tea known as Skeleton T, and many more, have more-or-less just as much clout and relevance as the regular people. Arle has been a magician ever since the tender age of 5, passing an extremely dangerous test that makes you ask “why the **** is a 5 year old doing this?”, including seeing her classmates melt and fighting demons. She’s got a kind heart and innocent soul when you haven’t gotten on her nerves, as seen in games where she’s a young girl or has gotten away from the insanity of her world and met new faces, though if you do end up getting on Arle’s nerves she is not afraid to get snarky and critical, especially when she has lost her adorable pet Carbuncle (more below). She’s the sanest member of the original set, and is still one of the most sane characters in the cast.


Her magical talent is spread across a massive variety of spells. She’s a warlock, through and through. A comprehensive list of her magic spells can be found here, though it’s in Japanese and you’ll need to translate it. Most of it is in katakana, so it is the English word directly written in English. I’ll put some of the more memorable and iconic spells in parenthesis. Magic isn’t all she can do, but it is by far the most prominent of her abilities. She’s this powerful for a reason, but it’s outside the scope of this introductory sheet.


  1. Fire elemental magic, such as launching Fireballs. (Fireball)
  2. Ice elemental magic, such as forming storms of ice. (Ice Storm)
  3. Electricity magic, such as lightning bolts from her hands. (Thunder)
  4. Magic that makes her own magic even more powerful, though it causes a stutter every time she uses it. (Diacute)
  5. Light elemental magic, such as beams that have the power of the heavens. (Heaven’s Ray)
  6. Status ailment inflicting magic, which can cause sleep (Heedon), reduce intelligence (Mind Blast/Brain Dumbed), or more.
  7. Defensive magic, such as a spell that can reflect enemy attacks (Revia).
  8. Various other spells, such as Judgement/Jugem, a very powerful magic attack, Warp, which can teleport her, Ruipanko, which can do various things, including making her a powerful protective barrier, Owanimo, which is the catalyst for the Puyo matches, and Healing, which can restore her HP.
  9. Bayoeen deserves its own section. As by far the most memorable and notable spell in her library, there is nary a game in which she can’t use it. It is, in most Madou games, a paralysis spell that keeps the enemy from moving. In Puyo Puyo, and at least Saturn Madou, it is her most powerful attack, and a maneuver that takes many incarnations.
    1. A storm of flowers, as seen in every Sega-era Puyo game, like in Madou Monogatari.
    2. A burst attack emanating from Arle herself. This is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo 4, as well as Saturn Madou before the latter becomes a storm of Garbage Puyo.
    3. A toss up of cosmic objects, which is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo SUN.

She has a pet… rabbit… called Carbuncle, who used to be the pet of Satan, lord of hell. Carbuncle has a gem in his head that can fire lasers, and a long tongue that is also prehensile. If Arle and Carbuncle have any three things in common, it’s their magic (seemingly, Carbuncle can do every spell that Arle can in most games he’s playable), their love of curry, and having mixed at best feelings on Satan. If I have to talk about any of the major Puyo cast, it’s gotta be Satan, since he’s (for a very complicated reason that is beyond the scope of this introductory guide) got the hots for Arle, who wants no part of whatever goofy scheme he’s cooked up to win her over. He used to be the main antagonist of the series, though he’s rarely, if ever, a bad guy, and these days is more often helpful than antagonistic.


Arle’s history goes as far back as 1989, 30 years ago, but it’s split across two different game series. Madou Monogatari, the first of these game series, and the parent of the second one, is an RPG that is only connected based on the characters. The gameplay traditionally plays like a dungeon crawler, and the gimmick is that instead of numbers, you have to use Arle’s expression to determine how healthy she is (something that is recurring throughout Puyo, from Madou Monogatari 2 all the way to Puyo Puyo Chronicle, is that characters react to how well they’re doing or if they’re about to die), though later games play like a more traditional JRPG with overworld movement and visible statistics. The primary reason to play them is for the characters, mostly. I said that Arle is the former main character of Madou Monogatari: that series isn’t owned by SEGA, but by Compile Heart, the successor to the original Compile that created both. The series has moved on without its former cast, and created a new one to take its place.


The more famous of the two, and a spinoff of the Madou Monogatari franchise, Puyo Puyo was born in the gaming world in the year 1991. Two slime creatures, in a pair, known as Puyo, fall from the sky. Your task is to make your opponent top out while making sure that you don’t yourself, though there have been several changes to the rules over the years, and all of them are treated as separate modes. Initially, it was little more than a rip-off of Dr. Mario (self admitted by the creator), with two features: Endless, and Mission Mode. But when it got a port to Arcades, it got a story mode and multiplayer: the multiplayer made the series a Japanese sensation, though it wouldn’t do so yet: still, Compile had a working formula on their hands, and all they had to do was perfect it. And, in Puyo Puyo 2 (1994), they did. With new mechanics such as neutralizing incoming garbage, All Clears that gave you more attack power, and quality of life fixes such as double rotation and two piece preview, the series hit the big time with this game, quickly establishing Compile as one of the leaders of the arcade market. To this day, the ruleset of Puyo Puyo 2 is the competitive standard, and it is still common to see Puyo tournaments officially hosted by SEGA (in Japan).


Now is the time to address the not so noble things, such as the lack of unaltered releases and the death of Compile. Back in the 90’s, video games were still seen as a boy’s material in most of the western world, and thus it was feared that Arle could be bad for sales of the game, being a female protagonist. Your first experience with Puyo Puyo, if any, may have very well been Dr. Robotnik’s Mean Bean Machine (1993), Kirby’s Avalanche/Ghost Trap (1995), or various other versions of the original that did not feature the cast created from Madou Monogatari. And despite being massive, Compile somehow managed to **** it up massively and go bankrupt, not that the series was getting worse (though Puyo Puyo SUN, 1996, and Puyo Puyo 4, 1999, were not as popular as Puyo 2 but rarely considered poor in quality) but they simply made a really bad business decision. To try and save themselves, they sold Puyo Puyo to SEGA in 1998, intending to buy it back when they made enough money, before 2001 when they would lose the rights to make the games entirely. They ended up going bankrupt.


SEGA’s tenure came with massive changes. Firstly, the series ended up in the hands of Sonic Team, the current devs of Puyo Puyo to this day. While the first game they made (Minna de Puyo Puyo, which they didn’t really make, but outsourced to somebody else) was very similar to Compile’s reign, when Puyo Puyo Fever launched in arcades in 2003, something was very different. The art style was more poppish, Arle’s hair color was different, and her friends were gone. She was no longer the star: Amitie took over the spotlight (Arle has since regained it after some time playing footsies with this title from Amitie and Ringo), and there was a whole new cast of faces, some totally new like the chipper, ignorantly murderous ghost girl Yu (later revealed to have a brother named Rei), some spiritual successors such as the gay talking skeleton Oshare Bones, who likes fashion instead of tea. Even the rules now featured individualised character Puyo or attack stats, and a new Fever mode that allowed losing players to mount comebacks. A bold move, SEGA also proved to release Puyo Pop Advance (Minna) and Puyo Pop Fever in the west. This did not work out, since at the time SEGA of America had a massive Sonic boner that they could not subside for Puyo and barely bothered, if they ever did, to advertise it.


Puyo Puyo would see many releases, all of them Japan only, none of them particularly successful but good enough to keep the series doing decently well. Arle’s friends started to come back in 2006’s Puyo Puyo!, or 15th Anniversary as the west calls it, as the series explains this as world hopping. Then Puyo Puyo!! Quest came out on phones in 2013, and it turned the series’ luck around. This is a game that is unlike traditional Puyo Puyo: it’s mostly singleplayer with a good amount of multiplayer, and the way the game is set up is totally different: you pop Puyo by touching them, in order to power up your characters as they go on Quests. The game is also a gacha game, though it never gets to money grubbing extents (in my time), as the game can easily be played F2P to very satisfactory results. To say that it broke the bank would be an understatement: it still retains this title to this day. The series would hit the ****ing jackpot in 2017: Puyo Puyo Tetris, originally released in Japan back in 2014, got a port to Nintendo Switch that came with an English localization, not to mention Sonic Mania featuring it as a boss battle and unlockable game mode. The game did very well for itself despite everything, and to this day seems to be going on with no signs of slowing down (then again, Bottle Episode came out in October of last year).


If you’re curious as to how much Puyo you can get on Nintendo systems, just for the record, the Virtual Boy is the only Nintendo console that lacks a Puyo game of any kind, although there are not enough Nintendo consoles to have one version of every game without overlap (the Wii/DS/3DS has to have at least 2). Madou, by contrast, only had a few Nintendo releases. The series has been going on for 30 years composite, and 28 only counting Puyo. Total sales of Puyo break 25 million, though whether or not this number includes Quest sales I do not know. Either way, it makes it one of the more profitable series and SEGA’s number 2 (Sonic curbstomps everything else they’ve got.)


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I had a write-up planned out for her today, but it was made prior to Joker's reveal. While it's useless as a whole NOW, it's still got some very solid points:



  • While nowhere near on the level of, say, Dragon Quest, Puyo Puyo is still a pretty big series in its home country.
  • The series has been going on since its inception, and shows no sign of coming to an end (outside of, say, Sonic Team being destroyed, but that's worst case scenario). It is both long-standing and relevant.
  • Thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris, she is nowhere near as much of an unknown over here as she used to be, although the series isn't very big here yet. Since that came out not too far away from Persona 5's English launch, I'd say it factors in. Thanks to Puyo Puyo being confirmed for SEGA Ages worldwide, at the very least SEGA now thinks Puyo in the west has a potential future, in case anybody thought that Puyo Tetris was a one-time thing, though this won’t specifically confirm her since it happens after eSports.
  • Speaking of, because she's technically in a Tetris game, she can technically represent Tetris with a character without needing to do something incredibly crazy (though L block or Tetris Man work). She'd take priority over Ringo and Tee because they're not as iconic, nor as popular, and don't have legacy or as much to stand out with.
  • She's got plenty to help her stand out from the crowd: magic is still a rarity among the cast, a chaining mechanic, Carbuncle, the titular Puyo, and that assumes Sega doesn't allow Sakurai to tap into Madou. With it, she's got lots of potential.
  • Last and least, puzzle games are seriously hurting for characters, and we're more or less down to two at this point.
  • eSports is irrelevant because Xenoblade 2 is too new by release date. If it were to matter, however, then it could potentially be a deciding factor.
Irrelevant points were: Assuming Nintendo would prioritize characters with good Nintendo history, as to not promote free advertising for Sony and Microsoft, and obviously every point related to the vacant slot in a SEGA character: since, you know, :ultjoker:. As well as her legacy except compared to other Puyo characters, since it seems like new faces are going to be dominant.

I'd say this totals her chance to about 20% in my eyes, since she has lots of good points, but the only major bad point couldn't possibly be worse.

Still, if we are going to get another SEGA rep, with one exception (anybody here know Yakuza? I’m not having that upset happen again), I have absolutely no doubts that it'd be Arle at this point. Joker's just kind of making it a hard sell. And unlike Tails, Arle has to get in ASAP, because if a Round 2 happens then she has to compete with him and Eggman again. A Round 3, she's almost guaranteed, but that's even assuming a round 2 happens, let alone a round 3 which is almost a farce.

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2424% (Pretend I said 100%)

Unlike my chance, this isn't dated! It's still here.

So. This is it. This is my most wanted character, BY FAR. BY ****ING FAR. Capping the score for want at 100% is bad for me because it’s a ****ing lie that implies I only want her a decent bit more than Banjo and Paper Mario. I’d ban them from ever being in Smash in a heartbeat if it guaranteed Arle. There is no competition here. There is nothing I wouldn’t sacrifice (short of critical gameplay mechanics) to get Arle in this game. I would let Patrick Star’s turds be playable in Smash as the main character and not give half a crap if Arle Nadja was playable. I draw the line at real life offensive stuff (even Arle couldn't soften that blow), but short of that, there’s nothing I’d never take if it meant getting Arle Nadja in, even Son Goku.
Her series deserves more love! That’s part of why I want it to happen. It’s quite fantastic, blending impressive competitive play with a fantastic cast of characters, (almost) all of them quite lovable or enjoyable. They’re the best. I’m not asking for a revival, though I am asking for more localizations...
In particular, make Puyo 2 the standard in the west. Mean Bean Machine and the other game that I’m about to get to use OPP rules, which are extremely dated and horribly represent the series today. Making them less of the standard would be much better.
I really really am a fan of the character. I like her personality. I like her abilities. There’s not much to say, you can’t change who you like, but Arle does bring a strong, sassy side that’s counterbalanced by being capable of genuine kindness and appreciation. She doesn’t take anybody’s ****. She’s good to her pet Carbuncle. She and the situations she gets in are hilarious.
ARLE. VS. KIRBY. This is a dream match for me, possibly around the level of Arle vs. Dr. Eggman, which is technically already possible in Puyo Puyo Quest. It’d be great whether you’d think she’d be out for revenge (like I do) or forgives him for what went down in 1995, which is that he stole her game. Remember the Avalanche? Or the Ghost Trap? That’s what I mean. Kirby’s Super Puyo Puyo Reskin apparently was just going to be Puyo 1 for the SNES before Compile (at the time, the dev team) was approached by Nintendo for the Kirby reskin process.
Y’know, this game could use more mages. Especially all around mages like Arle. The female newcomer selection is a little low right now, and all of them are based on other fighters (yes, Isabelle isn’t an echo, but it’s undeniable that she shares quite a bit with Villager). Arle’s got that covered, too, providing plenty of things to help her stand out.
Oh, and puzzle games are ****ing hurting, literally only having Dr. Mario, who is a clone. She might *not* count, as she herself hails from an RPG series, but she's more known for Puyo Puyo than Madou Monogatari, and that series isn't owned by Sega but by Compile Heart (basically Compile 2). So that'd be a fantastic hole to fix, and since I've never played a Layton game nor am I as interested in Panepon, Arle is my preferred choice.
My love letter to the series would be one that is very long, and respects the entirety of the Puyo Puyo franchise. This will be as involved and barking as I get. There’s nothing I want out of this game except Arle. With her, I will forgive every shortcoming. I will never ask for anybody ever again, I mean I'd continue to support Paper Mario and Banjo and everybody else but with her the roster's totally done. This is not hyperbole. If Arle gets in, I will personally apologise to every Joker main and purchase a copy of Persona 5 for every console I can, even ones I do not own, because I would be that sorry for all of my bitterness at Joker. [That second bit might be hyperbole.] Although that might not be good, because then if she were cut I'd flip. Also, K. Rool who? Olimar who? Mr. Game and Watch who? Insta-main, regardless of moveset functionality or playstyle.

---
Tl;dr

Chance: 20%. Lots of good things going for her, but if anybody got rekt by the Joker whose chances I don't see as nonexistent, it's Arle. (Tails and Eggman were already Spirits). That doesn't mean all of the other points are irrelevant, since we're mostly making the assumption that it will be all different third parties, but still, December 6th was kinda the day everything went wrong for most of SEGA's lineup. And most third parties.

Want: 100%. Read the paragraph above, but just know here that I'm a big fan of the series. I have a lot of apologies for Mr. Amamiya if :ultarle: gets filled in at any point.

Sly Cooper x 5. Rhythm Girl is not liking what the DLC lineup is shaping up to be, so I don’t see her breaking 9.20% chance.

I hope you don’t expect me to give Joker a high satisfaction rating when that happens (as long as Arle’s not in, I’d go negative if it were allowed, and if she does then everybody gets 100%), though I kinda feel a tad bad spite-voting I don’t care. He has enough fans that it wouldn’t be too significant.

Last but not least, you probably don't care I just threw this many words at the screen.
Dang apparently I better get writing if I'm going to be expected to do something like this for Ravio's day lol
 

Ornl

Smash Cadet
Joined
Dec 25, 2018
Messages
44
Arle Nadja
In the last poll, she obtained 8% of forecast average.

Chance : 16%
- Puyo Puyo sold 25 million units, inspired Kirby Ghost Trap and already had a crossover with Tetris, bringing together 2 of the most popular puzzle games. In 2000, Arle Nadja became the main character of the RPG Arle no Bōken: Mahō no Jewel on Boy Color Game.
- Puyo Puyo has recent and upcoming Switch titles.
- Sega (including Atlus) is the favorite license for more than 1/4 of Japanese : https://www.dualshockers.com/persona-5-best-game-time-famitsu/.
No offense to gamers, Sakura Shinguji is one of the most legitimate for Smash, but not for SmashU. Sakura Wars won the Japan Game Awards in 1996, and is still in 9th place in the last Famitsu survey. Also, Sakura Wars appears by 6 times in a previous Famitsu survey (counting Project X Zone) : http://www.gamekyo.com/blog_article388678.html. Sadly, she is stamped Sega+RPG, then behind Joker, and confined to Granblue Fantasy Versus. Yes, Sakura Shinguji is in the original Granblue Fantasy game.
- There are similarities between the Dragon Quest Slime and the Puyo Puyo Blop.
- Arle Nadja is in conflict with Professor Layton. Even if the puzzles are really different, it is unlikely that there are 2 DLC characters from puzzle games. As long as Layton isn't deconfirmed, it remains an obstacle in my opinion.

Want : 20%
I could well accept Arle Nadja with the only condition that she has an original gameplay. The idea would be to crush with blocks, but especially to push back. Thus, Arle could become a tactical fighter. It would make it difficult to reach her, and it would be difficult to recover/return to the field.
 
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MADE OF MONOGATARI

Chance:
Arle Nadia is the main character of the Madou Monogatari and more prominently the Puyo Puyo series owned by Sega, although I’d imagine more are familiar with her Puyo Puyo appearance. She’s a 16 year old magical girl who uses creatures called Puyo to fight all while being desired by the literal Satan, although far more of a pretty boy of course. She’d likely mainly represent the later Puyo Puyo puzzle games released by Sega if she were to get into smash, as those games are what the series is known for these days. The only puzzle game character we have in Smash is Dr. Mario, so Arle could represent an entire genre of gaming if she got in, and could potentially even use moves from her original RPG games too. Arle and Puyo Puyo as a whole are popular in Japan, with Puyo Puyo having seen many successful releases for over 20 years now, and Arle being the series’ oldest protagonist and even scoring relatively highly on the Japanese wants data PushDustin did in 2015, over Cloud and Bayonetta even although the sample size was small. Puyo Puyo also has had several Nintendo releases, with Puyo Puyo Tetris even being one of the Switch’s first titles. However, Puyo Puyo greatly suffers in Western popularity. When Puyo Puyo games back in the 90s were brought to the west, they received a visual overhaul and became Dr Robotnik’s Mean Bean Machine and Kirby’s Avalanche, with many games in the series being japan-exclusive. While Puyo Puyo Tetris found some success in the West when it’s released on Switch, it still was by no means a huge success. This would make Arle a rather obscure character to Western audiences. There’s also the question of whether they would really double-dip with Sega characters as Joker has already been announced, and there’s also Lip who despite being pretty irrelevant is a first-party character who largely occupies the same niche as Arle. This disparity between Arle’s popularity in different parts of the world really does make me question her chances a bit.
20%
I do feel out of all remaining Sega characters, she’s one of the likelier picks,

Want:
I certainly wouldn’t mind her. I haven’t played a Puyo Puyo game, but I think a puzzle character with some RPG moves could be a pretty cool moveset, and I do like her design (although mainly with her more realistically proportioned look), so I’d enjoy her getting in. Still need to play an actual Puyo Puyo/Madou Monogatari game though, and a part of me would maybe like Lip a bit more.
50%

Noms: Ezio x5
 
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Arle Nadja

Chance: 5% - I don't know anything about these games, but I guess they're pretty popular so I can't give her a straight-up zero. Joker also hurts her chances significantly, but I wouldn't have expected her regardless.

Want: 0% - First off, what a horrible name for a character. Secondly, if they were to choose a character to represent puzzle games, why would they choose her? We already have Dr. Mario, and Nintendo has their own puzzle games like Panel de Pon among others. I think third-party characters should be huge, heavy-hitters in the gaming world, not some nobody from a recently popular game series. If we were to get a third-party, puzzle rep, it should undoubtedly be something from Tetris. You know, the greatest-selling video game of all time that everyone and their mother has played? Smash is about legacy now, and Tetris deserves it way more imo.

Rhythm Girl Prediction: 3%

Andy x5
 
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RileyXY1

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 8, 2016
Messages
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Arle Najda

Chance: 5%
While her series is new and successful, Puyo Puyo is not very popular outside of Japan. Arle also faces competition from a 2nd Sonic rep, which at this point will most likely be Tails.

Want: 5%
I'm not that into puzzle games, although she seems cool. I have no opinion either way.

Nom: Kat & Ana x5
 

Jomosensual

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Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
164
Arle Nadja

Chance: 10 - Her game sold pretty well, it seems. But with already one sega rep from DLC I don't think this is going to happen. That all being said, Puyo Puyo was popular enough to get a crossover type game with Tetris so I don't think counting her out completely is a good idea.

Want: 0 - Never played Puyo Puyo so I have no real attachment to the character. Would prefer someone I know better to be DLC.

Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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Third Party Lip

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Look, let's just get the standard "OMG there's already a SEGA newcomer being added!!!11!!" argument out of the way. Ok? Good.

As has come up several times over the course of this thread, the DLC characters need to be able to sell themselves. Yes, competitives who want to keep up with matchups and completionists will buy whoever is thrown to them, but the DLC won't be able to survive without being exciting to others. That means the characters added need to be relatively big names worldwide, and have massive impacts.

In other words: not a character which is pretty well specific to one part of the world. She has a leg up on Lip in that her games have actually made it out of Japan and that she's fairly popular over there, but she's not an icon by a long shot and she probably wouldn't be marketable on a massive scale. As such, it seems like there'd be no impetus for her to sell on a large scale, which means there's no reason for Nintendo to ask for the rights.

Besides, puzzle games characters inherently have a tough time coming up with movesets direct from the games - they'll have to be mostly original. And puzzles would make great stages.

Honestly, not interested in the slightest. I can think of so many better characters to add over her.

Nom: More DLC x5
 

PeridotGX

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Dr. Eggman/Kirby

Chance: 7%. We already got a Sega rep in Joker. Another feels unlikely. But with the recent success of PPT, she's possible.

Want: Abstain. I've never played a Puyo game.

Noms: Grovyle x3, Maxwell x2
 

Artix

Smash Apprentice
Joined
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Messages
167
Arle Nadja

Chance: 1%
Out of all the Sega characters that is not from Sonic that we can get in Smash, Arle is the most likely candidate. However, she is only popular in Japan and that doesn't look good for Arle. Besides, she still has to compete with other Sega characters like Tails or Eggman for the slot.

Want: 0%
Never played a Puyo Puyo game before, so I have no real attachment to Arle whatsoever. Besides, there are other third-party characters that are more interesting than her.

Rhythm Girl Prediction: 3.22%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,374
A SEGA Character that's supposed to be a Tetris rep?
No, a Sega Character who is supposed to be a Puyo Puyo Rep. Tetris is mostly owned by The Tetris Company; Puyo Puyo was a spinoff of the Madou Monogatari RPGs created by Compile in 1991 and was eventually bought out by Sega. Outside of a single crossover, the games have nothing in common.

...some nobody from a recently popular game series.
As I metnioned prior, Puyo Puyo was first created in 1991, and its sequal Puyo Puyo Tsu was essentially the vs. Puzzle Game Codifier. By 1997, Pyuo Pyuo matches were Televised Events. The series boasted 10 million sales in 2001, and in 2016 Sega reports 22 million copies (including retail and digital sales) since they obtained the rights in 2001. This was before the breakout hit of Puyo Puyo Tetris. As of now, the series is considered an esport. Does this sound like a small franchise to you? While I acnolage that she isn't popular internationally, at least give her acknowledgement as being exceptionally popular in Japan.


Anyway, enough of my ramblings...

Arle Nadja

Chance - 1.25% - Joker really killed her chances. Yes, she's crazy popular in Japan, yet has only recently broken into the international market. With how tough DLC is, I struggle to see her.

Want - 80% - Hey, I enjoyed Puyo Puyo Tetris. Given the series's RPG roots, I imagine that a moveset shouldn't be that hard to make. With the history the series holds, I think she more than qualifies to get in.

Predictions

Rhythm Girl - 2.34% - Not seen as likely....


Nominations

Dark Matter X5
 
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As I metnioned prior, Puyo Puyo was first created in 1991, and its sequal Puyo Puyo Tsu was essentially the vs. Puzzle Game Codifier. By 1997, Pyuo Pyuo matches were Televised Events. The series boasted 10 million sales in 2001, and in 2016 Sega reports 22 million copies (including retail and digital sales) since they obtained the rights in 2001. This was before the breakout hit of Puyo Puyo Tetris. As of now, the series is considered an esport. Does this sound like a small franchise to you? While I acnolage that she isn't popular internationally, at least give her acknowledgement as being exceptionally popular in Japan.
Sure, the game's popular and I stated this in my post, but as a video game character she's still basically a nobody. People might know what Puyo Puyo is, but I have my doubts that the character herself is all that popular or has anything to do with the game's popularity.
 
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DaUsername

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In that corner over there
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:ultkirby:
Chance: 5%
We just got a Sega character. So we're probably not gonna get another one any time soon. Even if we do, her chances are still pretty slim.
Want: N/A
Never played her games so I can't rate this fairly.

RG prediction: 2%
Noms: Poochy x5
 
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