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I think I'm just going to stop giving out chance % ratings from here on out. Both Piranha Plant and Joker destroy so many arguments that most of us would've used against other character's possible inclusions. I don't even think it's worth speculating at this point; we are now officially on the Smash DLC hype train and there's no knowing where it'll take us.
It really does seem like it'll be entirely 3rd party from here on out. I can't see a single first party character (other than maybe Waluigi being promoted from AT) topping the absolute "WTF" factor this reveal had. With Reggie's emphasis on "fighters you would never expect," speculation has done a complete 180°. Popular and expected characters like Bandana Waddle Dee and Geno seem incredibly unlikely to me now. Bring on 2B and Sans.
This gives me so much hope for Crash Bandicoot for the absolute surprise reveal that will shock and amaze everyone! As in a reveal that will get people hyped like Joker instead of causing confusion and laughter like Piranha Plant did.
1) People stop hating on the poor Pokemon franchise getting reps. It's huge. It's cast is highly varied from each other. There's literally only 1 clone. The Everybody Is Here aspect is what bloated it the most. And if some of you would get off the "Original 12 can't be cut" nostalgia, Jigglypuff could very easily be dropped in the future.
What do you guys want? More generic looking... anime...
2) Joker looks more like a Naruto or Bleach guest star than Smash. I'm not sure I'm digging him on first impression and his reveal was lamer than Isabelle's.
That's not the problem. The problem is that there are tons of other characters that are just as unique but come from unrepped franchises left out in the cold.
I'm going to keep this rating blunt. I wanted to rate this after Smash came out in case of a shocking reveal, and now with Joker being revealed along with all DLC being third party, Lycanroc is effectively deconfirmed.
Chance: 0%
He is, as bluntly as I can due to this rating's theme, an emo dog. The arguments that mainly hear are "Ash uses him" which has no significance that he can get into Ultimate. Another is "Generation 7 is too popular", which might be true, but Gen 8 is on the near(er) horizon, and Gen 1 was the only generation that got multiple reps (I am almost certainly wrong; counting Mewtwo as Gen 1 though). A Gen 8 grass starter makes the most logical sense and would be perfectly fine. Lastly, "he's a rock type so that's unique and cool" doesn't really fit either. Smash doesn't tend to add characters just to FILL in a archetype moveset with a decently popular character that MAY fit; it's about building an iconic moveset AROUND AN ICONIC character. Popularity takes priority in the decision making for a new character with Nintendo and me; then, the moveset potential is considered. Moveset potential does not justify an argument for a character on it's own, but it does a damn good job at supporting it given that the potential exists.
Want: 0%
I'm tired and there are definitely lapses is reasoning sprinkled around in there, but I can't take the time to find them. However my scores are solid and my points were going to be addressed. But the first half of my want might be sloppy so be prepared.
Noms: Spyro x5
Predictions Chibi-Robo: 19.5%
TCT~Phantom
, proposal to make tomorrow a Double Day for Chibi-Robo and Satisfaction Ratings for Joker
That's not the problem. The problem is that there are tons of other characters that are just as unique but come from unrepped franchises left out in the cold.
Pokemon getting one this game and in Smash 4 is 100% fair game. You really think a cast that diverse and popular should be overlooked simply to fill in for some niche picks? I'd love to see another Pikmin rep myself, but I fully don't blame Mario or Pokemon getting someone new. DK gained King K Rool, Metroid gained Ridley and Dark Samus, and Animal Crossing gained Isabelle. Some of the other large series did get some love this time as well. Which ones are you upset about? Earthbound based on your main? It already beats Pikmin which is still living and ongoing with 1 whole rep.
And now we're getting anime boy with little connection to Nintendo. I think if any shade needs thrown around... it's Piranha Plant, Joker, Cloud, and Bayo's way.
And now we're getting anime boy with little connection to Nintendo. I think if any shade needs thrown around... it's Piranha Plant, Joker, and Bayo's way.
While Joker himself doesn't have much connection with Nintendo, Shin Megami Tensei definitely does (where its last mainline game was 3DS-exclusive and SMT5 is coming to Switch), and Joker is totally the best representative for the series right now. He's like Cloud, but with Atlus instead of Square.
While Joker himself doesn't have much connection with Nintendo, Shin Megami Tensei definitely does (where its last mainline game was 3DS-exclusive and SMT5 is coming to Switch), and Joker is totally the best representative for the series right now. He's like Cloud, but with Atlus instead of Square.
I'll probably feel better about him once we start seeing him in the actual game, right now we all got this super generic anime reveal with a super generic looking anime boy... and it doesn't fit.
And again, if people want to start yelling reps () don't belong cause it'd be nice to represent other Nintendo franchises or beef up the smaller ones... I still think these Bayo and Joker types are the biggest sore thumbs in the roster.
Simply put we have no footage of Joker. We do not know how he will play. I feel that is a key detail. This will be in line with how we did things with Inklings when the game first started.
That being said, let me just do a who is up and down.
Up:
Third Parties
Yeah I was already leaning a bit towards third parties, more and more spirits seemed like a death knell. But here we do get some concrete evidence that there will be third party dlc. I’ll just mention a few candidates that I feel get the biggest boost are Doomguy and Crash, as this helps them fix their issue with timing in somes eyes.
2B
Honestly a dark horse rn, don’t paint me suprised if she snags the SE crown at this point, though I am betting on Sephiroth.
Down
First parties
Yeah making assumptions I know. But I feel that we do not have as many big boys left. Overall, if spirits deconfirmed I only would put stock in promo characters. I am not sold completely on spirits being a death knell, but it’s something to watch out for. Our big first parties are spirits ats or miis.
Sega Characters
Atlus counts as Sega. We for a Sega dlc Rep. I am skeptical we will get a second. Arle, Tails, and Eggman take the biggest hits.
Now for Lycanroc
Chance: 10
Want:100
You know I tried to be as unbiased as possible with the schedule. I tried to go through and pick big name picks for us. But I did throw some bones. Joker, Merric, and Quote were some of those. Well joker would have been at least. Lycanroc was my bone. I wanted to give him one fair shake in smash ultimate. That is why I wanted a favorite pokemon I backed in pre release to get a bit of love.
In terms of chance, incineroar happened. I am a pessimist of us getting a new pokemon, but he is a prominent candidate. Ignoring the anime, the Merch, and him getting a third form is a bad idea.
Nominating Sephiroth x 5
Day over, rate Chibi Robo and predict Lip
If you are rating Lycanroc, get ratings in by 2 am est and we good.
Pokemon getting one this game and in Smash 4 is 100% fair game. You really think a cast that diverse and popular should be overlooked simply to fill in for some niche picks? I'd love to see another Pikmin rep myself, but I fully don't blame Mario or Pokemon getting someone new. DK gained King K Rool, Metroid gained Ridley and Dark Samus, and Animal Crossing gained Isabelle. Some of the other large series did get some love this time as well. Which ones are you upset about? Earthbound based on your main? It already beats Pikmin which is still living and ongoing with 1 whole rep.
And now we're getting anime boy with little connection to Nintendo. I think if any shade needs thrown around... it's Piranha Plant, Joker, Cloud, and Bayo's way.
Alright, before I say anything else, we can disagree and argue about it civilly. If I said something that you thought was disrespectful or personally offensive, then I'm sorry.
What I've said before is that Pokémon's Smash roster already is pretty diverse, and represents the series well. Adding another character for Pokémon wouldn't be any more interesting than any number of other characters, so if I have to choose between the two I'm going for stuff that needs the love more.
Also, it's not "blaming" Pokémon for anything; it's a highly successful franchise for a reason. I'd just like to see something else, that's all.
Also I'm not really pushing for more Earthbound so much right now; you don't need to make assumptions about that. If we got someone like Porky I'd be happy because I like those characters, but I'm actually pretty content with Mother's representation as a whole. Earthbound is not related to my opinions about Pokémon.
And actually I don't like Piranha Plant, Joker, Cloud, or Bayo either. I guess Bayo I'm okay with because she's more closely associated with Nintendo, but I don't have any personal interest in her or her games. Piranha Plant still feels like a slap to the face, though, and I still hold that Could and Joker are not suited for Smash based on their lack of association with Nintendo. The fabled "Cloud logic" doesn't change my mind.
DLC characters will most likely be those who are popular enough to make a lot of money. Seeing as how Chibi-Robo’s last game on the 3DS flopped hard I doubt it’ll happen. His mii costume also feels like it was intended to be used as an alternate way to play as him. Unless his series makes a comeback his chances as a playable character for Smash as a whole are basically over unfortunately.
Want: Abstain
It's a shame about his chances since he seems like he could work for Smash. I don't know much about him though so I won't comment.
Is his game the first to depict a dysfunctional family in Nintendo history?
Chance: 0%. He's not all that marketable, Mii Costume, and Spirit all combine to make him pretty much dead. I doubt Nintendo cares enough to revive him at this point, considering him a lost cause. A tragic tale.
Want: 20%. His game looks interesting. That being said, only real reason I have to want it is so that his games can live on and his fandom doesn't have to panic.
Alright, before I say anything else, we can disagree and argue about it civilly. If I said something that you thought was disrespectful or personally offensive, then I'm sorry.
What I've said before is that Pokémon's Smash roster already is pretty diverse, and represents the series well. Adding another character for Pokémon wouldn't be any more interesting than any number of other characters, so if I have to choose between the two I'm going for stuff that needs the love more.
Also, it's not "blaming" Pokémon for anything; it's a highly successful franchise for a reason. I'd just like to see something else, that's all.
Also I'm not really pushing for more Earthbound so much right now; you don't need to make assumptions about that. If we got someone like Porky I'd be happy because I like those characters, but I'm actually pretty content with Mother's representation as a whole. Earthbound is not related to my opinions about Pokémon.
And actually I don't like Piranha Plant, Joker, Cloud, or Bayo either. I guess Bayo I'm okay with because she's more closely associated with Nintendo, but I don't have any personal interest in her or her games. Piranha Plant still feels like a slap to the face, though, and I still hold that Could and Joker are not suited for Smash based on their lack of association with Nintendo. The fabled "Cloud logic" doesn't change my mind.
Don't worry about me feeling insulted or whatnot. The general vibe around here has been very anti-pokemon as of late cause Incineroar got the last base seat and squashed the Grinch into goop. So it's not you, it's many posters on here starting to lash out at the series and starting to make it the new Fire Emblem hate wagon that bothers me. But as I have stuck to... the "Everyone is Here" is the main cause of the inflation of reps for Pokemon as it brought back three Pokemon and kept Jigglypuff around. (she's the most dated alongside Pichu) Us gaining Incineroar back wasn't as big as a deal as us getting Pichu, Ivysaur, and Squirtle back onto the roster. Going forward, I'm all for Pichu, Jigglypuff, and PT (maybe not Charizard) being cut.
Whoops, day ended. Conversation done.
Err... something Chibi Robo...
He's a little cute robot that has no shot cause 3rd party anime boys are coming. The end.
Chance: 1%
Wish I could go higher on this boy. But unfortunately his series' future looks pretty bleak. At least he got a Mii Costume and Spirit, which is more recognition than he's gotten in the past. I'd say he's pretty much out of the running, but I gave him 1% because I like him lol.
Want: 80%
Won't give him full marks because I haven't played his games and don't have the strongest personal attachment to him, but he's a really likeable character from a unique and interesting series. I've seen video of his game and it's really creative and seems like something I should at least try out sometime. I think he has enough options for a fun moveset as well, and would fit right in with Nintendo's other franchises. Bonus points for being from an unrepped first-party series.
I think he does, though not to the level of, say, Geno, Banjo, Isaac, Waluigi, Dee or Dixie. But he has been polling really well lately, so for a third party character I think he passes the test.
I don't know when Joker satisfaction ratings are, but if the general online reaction is anything to go by, all I know is that I'm the only one who won't be giving him a 90-100%.
Chibi my bois time is here
Chance: 20%: A Bit high, but for first p party he makes a ton of sens. Still the only first party that probably will happen is BDee.
Want:100%: His SSF2 mindset is awesome. His games (excluding Ziplash) are great.
Nominations:
Hollow Knight x5
Today’s newcomers are Free updates (Splatoon-style) and Dark Matter, each with 5 noms.
We have our first disconfirmation if the DLC cycle, Concept: All DLC will be first-party. I don’t think anyone bought this one, as it dies with only 25 noms to its name.
But we also have a confirmation, Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep. This was seen as even less likely, with only 5 noms! Never see it coming, indeed.
Now, we got a couple gray areas I’d like to discuss.
CGI trailers: Joker definitely got an elaborate trailer that wasn’t done in the game engine, but it was traditionally animated and not CGI. I think it’s still enough to consider this one confirmed.
No fan favorites: While not one of the huge long-standing fan-wants for Smash (how can he be, two years ago he didn’t exist), from what I’ve seen Joker has been placing decently in polls, comparably to other third party anime boys like Sora, Lloyd and Travis. If we do consider him a fan favorite, this is disconfirmed.
All DLC will be third-party: Given Reggie’s statements, I think this is pretty much guaranteed, but he didn’t outright say it so this one’s safe for now.
Arle Nadja, Crazy Taxi rep: nobody’s expecting another Sega character, right? I’m keeping Perfect Chaos outta this one because we don’t know if we’ll get DLC bosses and while Persona has potential for those, they might still say **** it and go with a Sonic one.
I don’t want to double post but this is important and I don’t know if anyone actually reads my nominations updates so here goes.
Basically, I want to pose the question to whomever might want to chip in: Is Joker a fan favorite for Smash?
Your mileage might vary on what constitutes a fan favorite, but if you’re not sure, I would define a fan favorite as a character that has a substantial backing within Smash fans.
(Also, I’ll be removing the CGI trailers Concept tomorrow as I consider it confirmed, unless anyone has any objections)
I object. With CGI trailers, I kinda meant trailers in the same style as those of Ridley/Simon/K.Rool etc. I doubt the people who did those also did Joker's trailer. Also that trailer looks like it had a way lower budget than those 3D CGs, so I'd still say it's up in the air.
Chibi-Robo: Abstain
Dang I think I mess up my prediction for him lol but I'll abstain because I have absolutely no clue who Chibi-Robo is, probably would say chance 0% though if I was rating.
Predictions: Lip 1%
Yeah I think that Lip will be feeling the same way Chibi-Robo is feeling now.
Nominations: Ravio x5
At this point I'm committed and can't turn back now lol bring on the Ravio 0% day!
I don’t want to double post but this is important and I don’t know if anyone actually reads my nominations updates so here goes.
Basically, I want to pose the question to whomever might want to chip in: Is Joker a fan favorite for Smash?
Your mileage might vary on what constitutes a fan favorite, but if you’re not sure, I would define a fan favorite as a character that has a substantial backing within Smash fans.
(Also, I’ll be removing the CGI trailers Concept tomorrow as I consider it confirmed, unless anyone has any objections)
Personally I wouldn't consider him one. I think fan favorites would be Isaac, Geno, Banjo, Waluigi, and Ashley. Those 5 are all frequently mentioned as getting shafted which I think can only happen because people feel so strongly about them. I would probably accept BWD, Elma, Dixie, Shadow, Lyn, and Sora on a fan favorites list too though as they seem to be consistently popular.
No fan favorites: While not one of the huge long-standing fan-wants for Smash (how can he be, two years ago he didn’t exist), from what I’ve seen Joker has been placing decently in polls, comparably to other third party anime boys like Sora, Lloyd and Travis. If we do consider him a fan favorite, this is disconfirmed.
All DLC will be third-party: Given Reggie’s statements, I think this is pretty much guaranteed, but he didn’t outright say it so this one’s safe for now.
Arle Nadja, Crazy Taxi rep: nobody’s expecting another Sega character, right? I’m keeping Perfect Chaos outta this one because we don’t know if we’ll get DLC bosses and while Persona has potential for those, they might still say **** it and go with a Sonic one.
I say Joker doesn't count for the purposes of fan-favorites, as his Smash support was not very big. All DLC is third party, I won't contest.
We should continue to do the other SEGA characters, especially since Arle has the highest nominations count and Tails is on the fixed schedule anyway, and there's still want and nominations and predictions to do. Joker's... well, totally shot their chances unless a very specific set of circumstances happen, but still. Hell, maybe we get Monster Hunter/Phoenix Wright as one of the DLC characters, giving Capcom 4 and making this whole discussion moot.
I don’t want to double post but this is important and I don’t know if anyone actually reads my nominations updates so here goes.
Basically, I want to pose the question to whomever might want to chip in: Is Joker a fan favorite for Smash?
Your mileage might vary on what constitutes a fan favorite, but if you’re not sure, I would define a fan favorite as a character that has a substantial backing within Smash fans.
(Also, I’ll be removing the CGI trailers Concept tomorrow as I consider it confirmed, unless anyone has any objections)
Ahahah, that's where I'm going to disagree with the above posters. My opinion of "no fan favorites" is for characters that all come out of left field and nobody saw coming. Persona 5 is huge in Japan, and our definitions of fan favorites in the West are very different than theirs. Piranha Plant is a character that was never expected, and was the definition of not a "fan favorite". In Japan, Joker is very much a fan favorite, and whaddaya know, that's where Nintendo is located. I personally consider "no fan favorites" deconfirmed.
Ahahah, that's where I'm going to disagree with the above posters. My opinion of "no fan favorites" is for characters that all come out of left field and nobody saw coming. Persona 5 is huge in Japan, and our definitions of fan favorites in the West are very different than theirs. Piranha Plant is a character that was never expected, and was the definition of not a "fan favorite". In Japan, Joker is very much a fan favorite, and whaddaya know, that's where Nintendo is located. I personally consider "no fan favorites" deconfirmed.
So who would have needed to be revealed to confirm that then? Yeah he was popular but did anyone really think he would come to Smash? If Minecraft gets in will that be a fan favorite despite what appears to be near universal dislike from the Smash community because the game is huge?
We need to draw the line somewhere and I would argue that there are 5-10 characters that would make the most sense as fan favorites.
His franchise is dead. The attempts Nintendo made to revive him ended up bombing hard. (Zip-Lash) He doesn't have much support or moveset potential either, and honestly I don't care about this character at all. He is so dead to the point where Nintendo made jokes about lighting him on fire.
Now that's just sad.
I think having him as a spirit and a Mii costume is enough, because I don't think he deserves the playable spot in the roster. Especially for DLC.
Chance: 1%
He was given spirits and a Mii costume, more than anyone could have expected. As a big supporter of his I'm satisfied with that. I don't see him getting much more than that, even if he would be a ton of fun. Unless they're making a new traditional Chibi Robo game I just don't see it. Niche character from a great series.
Want: 75%
I love him! During Brawl he was one of my most-wanted newcomers. Chibi-Robo is such a charming and great game. I got Zip Lash just for that adorable Amiibo. Sadly the game wasn't great and underperformed. But nevermind all that. I just really love Chibi Robo. He's adorable and charming and has a fun moveset with his plug and household items. I'd love to see him repped in Smash.
Chance: 0.1
Sorry but he's been costumed and also has a spirit alongside that. I think we can safely assume they decided to not plan him for DLC. Doesn't help that Chibi Robo is a very niche franchise and likely wouldn't sell that good as a paid DLC character.
Want: 65%
It is unfortunate however. The Chibi Robo franschise deserves better than what Nintendo ended up doing to him. Smash is his only chance at a revival.
Chance: 1% - I sadly don't see him getting in. While Nintendo seems to be pushing fan-picks, even the ones that aren't major among the community (Joker; by "major" I mean "well-known"), I still feel like he's not gonna get in.
Want: 100% - I loved playing Chibi-Robo on my Wii, and I may play it again sometime as I still have the game and, in fact, now have an actual Gamecube to play it on. I'd love his inclusion and would like to see what they'd do with him.
Chance:5%
Yeah, he’s not going to happen. I hope his franchise isn’t dead forever, but from what we know so far it appears that it is. Not retro, no chance at being relevant, he’s just held up by a small dedicated fanbase.
Want: 100%
Which is a shame because his games are some of the most creative and heartwarming. Kinda like a wackier Animal Crossing. I don’t know why Nintendo staked everything on Zip Lash doing well, it’s like if instead of Awakening, Fire Emblem’s future rested on the shoulders of an on rails shooter, and a mediocre one at that.
Prediction: Lip 0.98%
Joker stole her chances it appears.
His franchise is dead. The attempts Nintendo made to revive him ended up bombing hard. (Zip-Lash) He doesn't have much support or moveset potential either, and honestly I don't care about this character at all. He is so dead to the point where Nintendo made jokes about lighting him on fire.
Now that's just sad.
I think having him as a spirit and a Mii costume is enough, because I don't think he deserves the playable spot in the roster. Especially for DLC.
I object. With CGI trailers, I kinda meant trailers in the same style as those of Ridley/Simon/K.Rool etc. I doubt the people who did those also did Joker's trailer. Also that trailer looks like it had a way lower budget than those 3D CGs, so I'd still say it's up in the air.
It’s no different than Little Mac’s trailer, animation style nonwithstanding. If they’re going to make personalized trailers for characters, at least one’ll be CG.
If we’re talking budget, Isabelle’s trailer was obviously lower budget than the others, yet it still counts, doesn’t it?
So, which fanrule do we want to use as a disconfirm this time?
Yes, it's not specified that a role in game hurts chances. Yet. Still, that's something we all tell ourselves since we want Spirit X or Assist Trophy Y playable, and we're trying to console ourselves.
In Chibi's case...he's a Spirit (I think...I still haven't picked up the game), he's a Mii costume, and he's from a niche franchise that put all of its last hopes on its latest game, and it didn't live up to expectations. He's about as dead as you can get in this world right now. Even if one of those fanrules isn't true, the combination of all of them isn't looking promising for the little guy.
We only have four slots left, and it's looking like "All DLC is 3rd party" will be likely, so I don't think this guy's gonna get much of a shot anymore. And I have zero connection to him. We have a robot (well, more than one if we want to be pedantic) in the game already, and I'm already not a fan of it. I don't need another.
Nom: More DLC x5
Note: I don't think this was confirmed yet. The text just said "Fighter pack 1: Joker," which is a true statement - the pack consists of him, a stage, and music. The next would be "Fighter pack 2: XXX" all the way up to "Pack 5" (still praying that Dovahkiin's among them), which makes the DLC pass. I also think Mii costumes are basically guaranteed and we've already seen free Spirit updates. I want to know if we'll be seeing other echoes or a fighter 76.
Chance - 0.05% - His last game was supposedly his last chance, and it was a financial disaster. Sadly, despite all the love he has received for this game, I think it's more or less an apology for not being playable. He just doesn't seem like DLC material.
Want - 60% - I like the little guy. I want to see him back in the spotlight again, and would be interested in seeing how he gets adapted.
Prediction
Lip - 0.35% - This couldn't have happened at a worse time...
