Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DlC Edition! Day 215: Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)

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Celica

Chance: 45%

Opossum has made strong points towards her plus the fact that she is not an Icon makes me believe she has a believeable chance over a Three Houses rep. The big flaw is Nintendo acknowledging peoples complaints of "Too many FE" so other than that, Celica has a chance.

Want: 85%

She is not a character that deserves to be in this game (Bandanna Dee & Hayabussa deserve it more) but she is one I would like to see despite what people say. Also, I do predict one of the five dlc will be a female character & she is my 2nd top choice (right below Elma)

Nominations: Hayabussa

Lycanroc Predictions: 0.125%
 
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hi lol. Been absent the last several days and probably will be in other days but I'm still going to try to pop in from time to time, including today:

Celica

Chance: 25%

While I still feel like Three Houses is more likely, there have definitely been good points towards her, and she is by far the most likely newcomer for FE if they don't go the promotional route. I feel the best things in her favor are that Echoes is the most recent main Fire Emblem title available, and that she has become highly popular among fans of the series. I do also think she's spared from the "spirits disconfirm" theory (which I'm otherwise admittedly kind of leaning towards being valid) as I feel that only applies to normal standalone appearances, and she only shares hers with Alm. Echoes not getting a ton of content in general I'm undecided between it being suspicious and the game and Celica just getting kind of shafted for one reason or another. Admittedly I still feel like Three Houses isn't too new for DLC, and that Nintendo would be more likely to suggest promoting it for the next Fire Emblem character if there's a new one, but her popularity and recency is enough for me to think she shouldn't be counted out.


Want: 50%

Pretty indifferent. I've never played Echoes and have no connection with Celica. Not sure if I'd play as her much or not. I'm fine with another Fire Emblem character though (honestly not really a fan of the "overrepresentation" argument in general at this point), and Celica is a sensible choice. I'd also be happy for her fans.
 
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Celica

35% chance

Opossum Opossum sold me better than most of the anti Celica people could. However, I feel there was one wrinkle that was danced around a bit. Heroes.

Yes Celica is popular in heroes, but heroes has its own characters that are decently popular, such as Veronica or Fjorm. I feel this makes her a little less likely.

I also value Three Houses higher than others do for speculation. This is primarily due to me believing there will be more dlc waves. If there are more waves, Celica chances go down. If there is only one wave, I’d value her at around 60% to be honest.

Also Celica is relatively easy to make. She is not super resource intensive. Some characters are. Celica, much like Corrin, has the benefit of being “realizable”.

Overall, I feel she has a solid chance, and her timing makes her a good choice for Wave 1.

70% want

I like Celica. She is sweet, and her gimmick around magic in gaiden being emo would be cool to see on a sword character.

But I feel Fire Emblem could use more unique stuff. Give me an axe wielder or spear user. Edelgard would be my choice.

Also she would come with a boat stage I think instead of dumas keep so that’s no bueno for me.

Sephiroth x 5

Day over, rate Lycanroc and predict Chibi Robo.
 
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I will say that Opossum Opossum 's essay is pretty convincing, but it hangs on the notion that:
A: Spirits deconfirm
B: They haven't already pre-chosen a Fire Emblem fighter like they did for Corrin
C: They listened to the Fire Emblem polls as much as they did the Smash ballot.

I feel like that if at least one of these arguments doesn't pan out in the end it really hurts Celica's chances.
 

shocktarts17

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Lycanroc

Chance: 5%
Yeah I'm pretty sure Inceniroar's inclusion soundly killed any chance of him getting in. Maybe this is just me but I didn't even know Lycanroc was that popular before I started seeing his name pop up for Smash and honestly I just don't see why hes getting support other than being a biped which would make him work well for Smash? Maybe someone will come in who supports him and explain it.

Want: 25%
He's a Pokemon, he's a werewolf dog thing, whats not to like? I guess I could even see some sort of transformation mechanic? I want him way more than most 3rd parties but he wouldn't even be my top 5 most wanted Pokemon.

Predict: Chibi-Robo 39%

Nomination: Ravio x5

EDIT: I hope Opossum Opossum and the other Celica supporters didn't think I was personally attacking them or anything, I enjoyed the spirited discussion and despite everything I said I wouldn't be upset if she gets in.
 
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Lycanroc: Chance: 1%. Sorry, we have a ton of pokemon already, including a newcomer. We're probably not going to see something of those likes as DLC.
Want: 1%. Not interested.
 

Sari

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Lycanroc

Chance: 1%
I doubt we’ll get another Pokemon rep in Ultimate at all and even then Gen VIII would have priority for promotional purposes. Lycanroc's chances are also greatly reduced due to a certain flaming tiger being viewed as the Gen VII rep. No Pokemon Gen apart from Gen I (which started it all) has ever gotten more than 1 rep and I doubt they'd make the exception here. Even when ignoring all of this, Lycanroc has competition for the next Gen VII rep in the form of Decidueye who is a much more popular candidate for Smash from what I understand.

Want: 10%
Could be cool but there are a ton of other Pokemon I'd rather see instead. In terms of Gen VII reps I'd prefer to see Decidueye.

Chibi-Robo chance prediction: 1.08% (this little guy has had it rough recently)

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

-----

Off topic but what are you guys hoping/expecting to see from the Video Game Awards tonight since Nintendo has been hinting at some announcements?
 

ProfPeanut

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Yeesh, looks like I shouldn't have left Celica day so early.

You guys do know that if Celica alone was this popular, we'd have have seen her long long ago - in Roy's place, in Melee, right? Because basing her chances off of Shadows of Valentia alone would not have cut it, especially when that particular continent's story is over and done with for the forseeable future. The simple fact is that Fire Emblem Gaiden didn't have enough impact to get into Smash before, even when it had no one else to compete with besides Marth, Jugdral, and a continent no one even knew about yet. As for popularity, Fire Emblem has no shortage of attractive women to elect as fighters, and Celica's chance to skip to the front of that line was this year, not the next.

(I'm sorry, I know her day's done.)


Lycanroc

Chance: 2%
Another Gen 7, when Gen 8 is just around the corner? That's extremely optimistic.

No, really. Why would Nintendo triple-down on Alola when it's already saying goodbye? It just celebrated a new Kanto remake and promised a new Pokemon generation for 2019. I don't see Lycanroc as being a good investment at this point.

Want: 1%
Oh wow, they didn't go with a Rock-type dog. What a loss, what a loss.


Prediction:
Chibi-Robo: 5%

Nominations
Andy x5
 
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Cosmic77

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Lycanroc

Chance: 20%
I'll acknowledge the fact that Incineroar took a huge hit at Lycanroc's chances, but I don't think he's a lost cause just yet. If Rex and Spring Man, two characters who were considered all but guaranteed as DLC, got disconfirmed, then I don't think Gen VIII, Three Houses, or any other character from an upcoming game is a safe bet. Should we get another Pokemon, there's a decent chance it could be Lycanroc. It doesn't have a Spirit, Mimikyu is out of the picture, and Ash's Lycanroc has a notable role in the anime. Decidueye could be threat, but given how it's already playable in Pokken, I feel like Sakurai would rather pick someone more unique to Smash.

Also, for anyone who thinks the current number of Pokemon reps poses a problem, have you seriously already forgotten about Corrin and Chrom? FE has more than tripled its number of characters from Brawl.

Want: 100%
Still want him more than any other Pokemon. That hasn't changed.
 

Ridrool64

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Decidueye's "rival", and by rival I mean somebody who Decidueye doesn't really hold up against thanks to Pokken.

Chance: 60%. You guys don't seem to have noticed that Incineroar is homeless right now, as there's no Alola stage which makes no sense for a Smash game to exclude. Plus, this is a Pokémon that's been apparently promoted in the anime to a good extent and is one of Ash's main Pokémon of the region, yet for some reason didn't really show up at all. If Rex is too new, what chance does a Gen 8 Pokémon have, on retrospect? While Lycanroc is on a time limit for no competition, (after the first three slots, we can presume Gen 8 launches and we see which one is chosen), even once it expires the wolf is still alive, only difference is that it has competition. Pokémon weariness is no good reason to say it's not a possibility.

Want: 30%. I skipped Gen 7, and it's the only one I've skipped, but Lycanroc seems decently cool. Not quite as awesome looking as Incineroar, but no type overlap means I can just use both whenever I finally get around to it.

Noms: Arle Nadja x 5. Chibi-Robo Prediction: 0.94%.
 
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Missed Celica I guess. Reading up on the posts I missed... that's for the best. That looked heated and I fear another voice would've only made it worse.

Day, night, and between

Chance: 3%
One percent for each form. Honestly, Incineroar stole the spot for a Pokemon character. Shame really, Lycanroc, Mimikyu, and Decidueye all would've been more unique. That said, I'm sure this DLC will want to move forward, or (hopefully) add characters from series' that didn't get any content base game. Or, more likely, promotional picks and 3rd party characters.

Want: 0%
Sorry, but Pokemon is a series I feel is represented well enough. Similar to Fire Emblem, I feel it's got enough in terms of characters. Which, ironically, are the two series I find having the best chance at DLC with Gen 8 and 3 Houses respectively.

Prediction: 12%
Chibi-Robo... a mii costume, a spirit, yeah, things don't look great for him.

Nominate: Professor Hector x5
 

DaUsername

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Chance: 1%
It has the exact same problem as Celica. Gen VIII is around the corner so Gen VII won't matter for much longer, and Nintendo would probably rather shill someone from the new game instead.
Want: 0%
Pokémon doesn't need any more newcomers either. 10 characters is more than enough.

Chibi-Robo prediction: 3%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5
 

3DSNinja

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Chance:50%: Gen 7 doesn't have a stage, and he is a partner of Inceniroar in the anime. Makes sense that he would be likely to get in. and no, Gen 8 isn't getting a rep. If Xenoblade 2 was too late, Gen 8 and Three Houses have no chance.
Want:75%: I would like another Gen 7 rep, and Lycanroc looks way cooler then Incineroar. But I wou!d prefer Decidueye.
Nominations:
courier x 3, Hollow Knight x2.
 

Delzethin

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Well...down, but not quite out. Not yet, anyway.

Lycanroc

So, I underestimated how early the cutoff date for content in Ultimate would be. Despite Sakurai's choice of games to namedrop in his column, there is actually no content in the base game from Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon whatsoever aside from one alternate palette for the female Pokémon Trainer. No stage, no Assist Trophies or Spirits of 'mons introduced in USUM, not even any music! It's all from the base Sun and Moon, and between that and how little content there is from Splatoon 2, it seems like the cutoff was some time in early 2017. And while two Lycanroc forms existed earlier than then, it took until August 2017 for the Dusk form to be revealed and this character's full potential to be realized. Seems like Lycanroc's chances for the base game were over before they began...but is there anything left now?

To answer that, we need to ask a few questions:

First: Would the DLC team even look at a second Pokémon newcomer? That answer's actually pretty simple: Sure, because Smash games have doubled up on newcomers from the same franchise several times before. Smash 4 had two Mario newcomers in the base game and, infamously, two Fire Emblem characters in its own DLC (while one was a previously absent veteran, the idea is similar). Brawl had the Pokémon Trainer and Lucario both. And Melee had two Mario newcomers, two from Fire Emblem, and four characters from Ocarina of Time alone! Even Ultimate may have already done it, depending on how you count Daisy, Dark Samus, and Richter! With how many times we've seen Sakurai double dip in the same game before, a second new Pokémon is very much on the table.

But why would they stick to Gen 7, then? Wouldn't they want to add someone from Gen 8 to promote those games as they come out next year? Here's where it gets complicated, because this...isn't as clear cut as it looks. Smash has a history of not jumping the gun on newcomers before their games have had time to be played--the only exception so far is Roy, a clone character added late to Melee whose game was actually supposed to be out before Melee but suffered a delay late in development! Even Corrin, derided in some circles as being "blatant advertising", is not so clear an example, because Fire Emblem Fates made its debut in Japan in June 2015, a full 7 1/2 months before Corrin became DLC! And with Sakurai confirming that DLC picks were locked in about a month ago, with the last of it set to be out around only 2-3 months after the usual November releases of Pokémon games, and with the knowledge that Corrin was chosen around spring 2015 when Fates was almost finished being developed, it legitimately brings Gen 8's viability for this DLC wave into question. While games set for release in the first half of 2019, like Fire Emblem: Three Houses, are likely still in play, there's a very realistic chance that Gen 8 will be hitting shelves too late to make the cut. Still 100% on the table if a second wave of DLC happens, but jury's out on whether that comes to pass.

Which leads us to one more question: Why Lycanroc? What's so special about this thing?

Well, actually quite a bit. Despite taking until 2017 to hit its stride, Lycanroc is actually a really big deal within Gen 7. Enough to have been featured as a highlight of USUM and promoted heavily for that entire span and even still has a presence now (enough to get a shout out last July on the NoA Twitter account during Let's Go's hype cycle).

Enough to have the lead role on Ash's team in the anime right now just like Greninja before it, a role it's had since August of last year, complete with a still-ongoing character arc about proving its worth as a team member and overcoming personal flaws that caused it to lose battles previously.



Enough to even rank high on popularity polls! Check out this one from Japan earlier this year:

Nintendo Dream Pokemon Poll (2018).jpg

It's legitimately Gen 7's counterpart to Lucario and Zoroark. It just doesn't get much credit outside the Pokémon fandom nor among Smash speculators because it's not a starter.

But what potential does Lycanroc have as a fighter? Well, that one's easy enough to answer. For one, being a Rock type means having mastery over earth-elemental attacks, an element that we've never seen a moveset built around before (pour one out for Isaac, guys, that late AT reveal still hurts). For two, the Midday and Dusk forms are both feral quadrupeds, and while we've seen a couple quadrupedal fighters already in Ivysaur and Duck Hunt, we've never had the opportunity to see a full blown beast character in Smash yet. And the Dusk form in particular has a weird mishmash of two personalities that are normally complete opposites: Patient and pacifistic by default, preferring only to fight when absolutely necessary, yet containing a berserker-like fury unleashed with careful precision when in battle. It's like a monk and a fight clubber did a fusion dance!



None of this means we need to "represent" these concepts in Smash or anything, but what it does mean is Lycanroc offers several unique ideas, both thematically and in its moveset, that Smash has never seen before and may not get the chance to tap into again for a long time. This "now or never" line of thought contributed to Corrin and his/her unique shapeshifting powers getting the nod last time, and there's a chance it could happen again.


Overall, Lycanroc is what I'd call a "conditional" DLC candidate: Someone who needs a certain thing to happen in order to stand a chance (in this case, the Smash devs taking another look at Gen 7 and/or Nintendo bringing it up as part of their whole collab), but would have a legitimate shot if it were to happen. Lycanroc may have fell victim to reaching its peak too late for the base roster, and may be skirting with falling victim to being too late again with Gen 8 coming soon, but there is still a window in this first wave of DLC. Still a face of its generation, and still checking off many boxes at once when it comes to being a unique choice of newcomer, the door hasn't closed on Lycanroc's chances just yet.

Chance: 33%


I've learned a lot from all the bumps in the road over the past year. Met some people, rallied a support base together, made several mistakes that I can't take back that have made enemies I never wanted to make. Were I able to, I'd go back and do things differently, but I can't, and now all I can do is try to mend the bridges I broke and hope they're accepted.

Despite it all, this is still a character I've gained a personal connection to, something that doesn't happen often for me. I've been invested to a fault at times, had old wounds from the past be reopened, and stressed out over how to convince others to hear me out...because, well, the situation hits home for me in a way. I'll spare you the details.

I just hope that this oft-overlooked character with so much going for it can find redemption the way Robin did, instead of being one more example of someone who never got a chance to compete just because they were not someone else.

Want: 100%

Nominations: Splatoon-style Free Updates x5

Chibi-Robo prediction: 4.87%

The Mii costume will drag his rating down, but does it actually destroy his chances? That'll be the big question tomorrow, I think.
 
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Garteam

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Hey guys, this is my first post in here since Lyn, which would've been way back in April, but I couldn't help but give my support to Lycanroc:
Chance: 25%
Where I'm standing, Lycanroc is the forerunning Pokemon to get representation for DLC, so I'll lay out the pros and cons:
He's Ash's Ace in the Alolan Anime
Since being caught, Rockruff has been putting in some series work in terms of battles. Not only did it put up a strong fight against Gladion's Midnight Lycanroc but it was also able to defeat Olivia's Midday Lycanroc and win Ash the Grand Trial. Things only got better after Rockruff evolved shortly after, Lycanroc was Ash's go-to Pokemon both in battling Lusamine and engaging in Ultra Beast missions. No where is Lycanroc's importance better seen than during the battle of Nanu. Ash was only allowed to take in one Pokemon to battle against Nanu's three, and that Pokemon was Lycanroc. It was during this character arc that Lycanroc underwent some major development, learning both Stone Edge and Counter along with getting its berserk form under control, no doubt building up to greater threats to come.

There has been this common theory that Ash's Torracat will involve into Incineroar and overtake Lycanroc as the main Pokemon. First, this is extremely unprecedented, as Ash's star Pokemon tends to remain consistent throughout a season. Sceptile, Infernape, and Greninja were all Ash's leading Pokemon throughout their entire season, even before they evolved into their iconic forms. Likewise, we've passed the point where Ash's Frogadier evolved into his iconic Greninja, so it is looking like an Incineroar evolution is less and less likely each day. Plus, they are slowly building up a rivalry between Ash's Torracat and Kukui's Incineroar, so it would be awkward to have to have two Pokemon of the same form and species as major, distinct characters.

Gen 7 isn't going away anytime soon
Often, people will cite that a newcomer from the upcoming Gen 8 games will get priority over Lycanroc. However, it is probable that Gen 8 is too new to fully justify a newcomer. People often cite Roy and Corrin as prime examples that a character can get into Smash before their game is released, but this largely a misunderstand of the way each of them got in. Fire Emblem: Fates was out in Japan for 6 months before Corrin was even announced! Likewise, Binding Blade was intended to release before Melee, it simply got delayed a few months and Roy ended up debuting in Melee as an extension (which is why his characterization in that game is so different relative to his other appearances, they were working with an earlier draft of the character).

There's also this idea that Gen 8 will get a character to promote its upcoming release, which for most people stems from Corrin's inclusion in Smash for. Likewise, this is a misunderstanding of why Corrin was included. Sakurai based the Smash for DLC selection on various categorizations. One category was a Melee character, so Roy was included. Another category was a Final Fantasy character, so Cloud made his way into the game. Corrin's category was not "promotional character", but was instead a character that could not have been in the base game. Promotion largely had little to do with it, its largely a coincidence that Fates' western release and Corrin's release date were also in February 2016 (given that two completely different groups of people made these decisions). Besides, even looking at things from a promotional lens, there is still a lot of products based around Gen 7. (Ultra) Sun and Moon may be on a slowly dying system, but there's still an ongoing anime and plenty of merchandise based around Alola. In particular, Lycanroc seems to be the Alola Pokemon with the most merchandise that is not a starter, so take that as you will.

Unique, both thematically and in gameplay
Smash still has yet to get its first geokinetic and, with Issac out of the way (RIP friend), he's the only viable character that could carry this gimmick. In-fact, the only character to even use any attack involving the ground is Charizard, and that's simply his down-smash. Pokemon has no shortage of rock and ground-type moves that would make for an interesting character. Of course, Accelerock would have to be his neutral special (seeing how every Pokemon with a unique move has it as their neutral special), but there's also Rock Slide, Stone Edge, Drill Run, Rock Climb, and Rock Tomb as possible moves. Likewise, there's the infamous Stealth Rock, which would work great as a tool to create pressure, gain stage control, and edgeguard.

There's also the fact that Lycanroc would be Smash's first full quadruped. Ivysaur and Duck Hunt are also quadrupeds, but the former has a vines that act as hands and the latter goes on Looney Tunes logic and can stand up whenever it likes, so Lycanroc would be a distinct character. This would obviously greatly impact the way that Lycanroc moved and fought, separating him from the rest of the roster. Many people feel that being a quadruped disqualifies him from doing certain necessary actions, but I disagree. Grabs, throwing items, and swinging items can all be accomplished with the mouth. Large items such as crates can be picked up and carried by balancing the item on its back. Firearms are somewhat of an issue, but Smash has never played very close to reality regarding the blasters (just look at the way Wario uses the Super Scope).

Hints in Games
Alola still doesn't have a stage. This is odd, given that both Lucario and Greninja got a stage based on their home region but Incineroar didn't. Plus, Alola has so many unique and cool locations which would make great stages, such as Iki Town, Po Town, or the Aether Paradise. This leaves a very obvious stage inclusion for a possible Lycanroc pack. Likewise, there's no Ultra Sun/Moon music in the game, leaving a lot of potential for music choices in a Lycanroc pack. If they are really struggling with finding music for Lycanroc's pack, then they could even take music from Let's Go.

Also, Lycanroc doesn't have a spirit, despite being such a prominent Gen 7 Pokemon. Whether this means anything is largely subjective, depending on whether or not you think spirits serve as a deconfirmation, but it was still worth noting if you think Spirits impact a character's chances.

Now, I guess I should go over the cons. Well, I guess the con, given this is fully the issue holding Lycanroc back:

Are we getting another Pokemon?
This is hard to say either way. On one hand, Pokemon is Nintendo's biggest franchise that doesn't rhyme with "Bario". Pokemon are highly recognizable and are basically guaranteed to sell like hot cakes. On the other hand, we already have 10 of the little buggers, more than any other franchise (unless you count Mario Spinoff characters as Mario characters, which Smash really doesn't). I've seen a bit of people talking about "Pokemon Fatigue" after Incineroar's inclusion (although there were so many emotions flying around after Incineroar was revealed, its hard to tell if its people sincerely sick of Pokemon or just disappointed that Incineroar wasn't Geno/Goku/Charlie Brow). Then again, Fire Emblem had the exact same problem during Smash 4, and it saw 2 DLC characters after getting a newcomer and echo in the base game, so what's to say things won't turn out the same way?

Want: 100%
In case you can't tell, I really like Lycanroc. I first got interested in the character after his Dusk form served me so well in Ultra Sun. He's just such a perfect storm: unique, relevant, and important. It would be a major shame to see all this potential go down the toilet, seeing how Pokemon is kind of a revolving door regarding character importance (with a few exceptions of course). He's easily my most wanted, bar none.
 

Artix

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Lycanroc

Chance: 25%
It feels so strange that Incineroar got in and yet there's no Alolan stage to come along with it's inclusion, so I have a feeling that Lycanroc might be the only way for us to get an Alolan stage in Smash (probably Melemele Island) through DLC. Not to mention, this Pokemon is quite popular especially since it's one of Ash's Pokemon. So, yeah, I'm giving him a benefit of the doubt that Lycanroc might actually get in just because we're lacking an Alolan stage of some sort. However, there's a chance that Nintendo will go for a Gen 8 Pokemon instead of Lycanroc, so there's that.

Want: 85%
Lycanroc is absolutely one of my favorite Gen 7 Pokemon, to be honest. I wish it would gotten in instead of Incineroar, but since we're lacking an Alolan stage, I feel like Lycanroc has a chance.

Chibi-Robo Prediction: 3.91%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5
 

Opossum

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Lycanroc

Chance: 1%
Otherwise known as "The Piranha Plant Percentage." Barring that, there's no reason to expect rock doggo. As disappointing as it is, we didn't get an Alola stage in preparation for DLC. We didn't get an Alola stage because Incineroar's "stage" is Boxing Ring. Just look at Incineroar's moves. Sakurai favored the wrestler aspect more than the Pokémon one. Plus when you unlock Incineroar, you fight it on the Boxing Ring. It's TRAILER took place in the Boxing Ring. To use the absence of an Alola stage as "proof" of Alola DLC is kinda ridiculous.

You know what else is included in the fighter pass? Music. Where is Lycanroc from? Alola. What region got several brand new remixes? Also Alola.

Also I'll be honest, I don't think Lycanroc was even a thought to Sakurai when he picked Incineroar. When the starter trio presented workable and unique archetypes (Grass/Ghost Owl Archer, Fire/Dark Tiger Wrestler, Water/Fairy Sealion Siren), I don't think Sakurai would go for a rather plain looking quadrupedal wolf whose ability to shoot rocks isn't even immediately obvious in its design.

Want: 0%
If we were to get another Alola Pokémon, it would without a doubt be Decidueye, considering they've undoubtedly seen its popularity now. The fighter pass has to sell, after all. And I'd prefer it that way. Hoot hoot, my fallen friend. O7
 

RealPokeFan11

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Off topic but what are you guys hoping/expecting to see from the Video Game Awards tonight since Nintendo has been hinting at some announcements?
I'm hoping for CTR to get revealed and upgraded for Xbox PS4 and Switch since it was my first Crash game after all. Also hoping for a surprise Smash announcement for either Banjo or Crash during the VGA.

Lycanroc rating coming soon.
 

Jomosensual

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Lycanroc

Chance: 0 - Don't see them adding another Gen 7 Pokemon in, especially with gen 8 coming up. If by some chance we do I think he'd be behind choices like Decidueye, who would be more unique

Want: 0 - Not really interested in another gen 7 pokemon right now. With the fighter pass being a thing it feels like they should go for more exciting options than another gen 7 Pokemon, and if we have to get another Pokemon in the game I'd prefer a gen 8 choice

Noms
Gen 8 Pokemon x5
 

Zabadoo

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Lycanroc

Chance: 20%
While Lycanroc is a popular and relevant Pokemon, Smash has only been known to double-dip into the first generation of Pokemon. Poor Gen 2 is delegated to representation via a suckier version of Pikachu. And don't even get me started on Gens 3 and 5...

Another aspect that concerns me for Lycanroc's odds are Sakurai's interactions with TPC. Sometimes it seems like Sakurai can waltz in and ask for whatever characrer he wants, but other times, it seems like TPC knows exactly what they want to see in Smash before Sakurai even shows up at their office. This aspect of the Sora Ltd./ Pokemon Company relationship could either work in Lycanroc's favor, or completely bury Lycanroc, because it poses a very important question:

"Is TPC interested in promoting Gen 8 during Smash DLC? If not, are they interested in continuing to promote Gen 7? Do they want a Pokemon to be in Smash's DLC at all?"

I know that's not a question, so much as a series of questions, but I think that they are fair questions to ask. And, honestly, with Gen 8 right around the corner, I don't see TPC wanting to stick to promoting Gen 7.

I will say, if I'm wrong, and TPC decides to continue promoting Gen 7, then my Chance score will shoot up exponentially. As of now, though, Lycanroc seems unlikely, in spite of everything in its favor.

Want: 30%
I don't hate Lycanroc in any way, shape, or form. Lycanroc is simply a Pokemon that never interested me. I'd buy him as DLC, but he isn't a character who would sell me on getting the Fighter Pass as soon as possible.

Nominations: Porky ×5
 
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Lycanroc
Chance: 2%
Incinaroar killed most of his chances sadly. Is a double dip on the same gen possible? Probably, but I still think a gen 8 rep is likelier, and if it's too soon for that I'd think we'd likely get nothing at all. (heck, there's even the small chance of them double dipping for a Pokémon who isn't even Lycanroc) We don't know much about gen 8 as of right now except that it's on the horizon and we'll be learning alot more about it next year. By then gen 7 will no longer be in the position to promote it further.


Gen 7 also not having a stage would be more suspicious if we atleast got more than what, four?... Two of them from franchises new to Smash and the others from two of the biggest Nintendo games from this decade.

Want: 0%
I would've been perfectly fine with him in the base game, but with Incinaroar already being the gen 7 mon and the 10th mon in the game in general, I'd preferably see the time and recourses being spent on something else. Unrepresented and underrepped franchises in particular. No hard feelings tho.


Chibi robo: 7.33%

CGI DLC trailers x5 (This might possibly get (de)confirmed within the next 10 hours or so)
 

zeonie888

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 26, 2007
Messages
79
Lycanroc

Chance: 1%
I have a feeling that there is a slim chance for it to be picked it's competing with other pokemon if there is another spot.

Want: 90%
It's a very cool pokemon with three forms to choose from! I can't pick a favorite form cause I love all three forms equally. I wouldn't mind giving this fella a try if he gets in.
 
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Lycanroc

Chance: 50%
I can only imagine it happening if Sakurai negotiating for Incineroar went like this:

Sakurai: Can I make Incineroar playable? I always wanted a pro wrestler!
TPC: Okay, but you took so long to choose a Pokemon that we decided to promote this one instead, so could you make it playable at some point?

Want: 70%
I would prefer Mimikyu, but Eevee is the more likely Poke Ball promotion, and I don't believe in too many Pokemon because it's still missing mascots and I played Marvel vs. Capcom 2 and Capcom vs. SNK 2.
 
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CaptainAmerica

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 21, 2014
Messages
2,561
Location
New York
Rock Wolf

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

His chances are not GRRRRRREAT!

After all of the debates, we finally have an answer. Tony the Tiger is our Gen 7 rep, Mimikyu’s been caught, and the rest of the gen can join the other 700+ mons in the background.

With the few newcomers in Ultimate, it seems highly unlikely we’d get another Pokémon for DLC when Pokémon got one of the newbies and even brought three vets back. And like yesterday, everyone knows about the new game on the horizon (FE’s probably a bit more likely to get a promo DLC since we literally know nothing about gen 8).

Apologies to those who like the doggo, but he really doesn’t seem to be that important outside of the anime either. I see people comparing him to Lucario or Zoroark - both starred in their own movies, both were reasonably unique in their games to the point they were practically legendaries (you had to receive them as a gift, they weren’t wild), and both were in-your-face in the marketing being the first characters shown off. Lycanroc is just another mon who got a unique forme between games and is big in the anime. And even still, even if he were the game’s Zoroark...then he’d just be a Pokéball summon. I think the closest equivalent to Zoroark in terms of marketing was Mimikyu, and that got him to the same place.

Yes, we didn’t get a new Alola stage. But we did get every previous stage upcycled. I think only Kalos League and Stadium 2 didn’t need to be remade since they were in Sm4shU. Otherwise, we’ve got the stages as well.

Nom: More DLC x5
You know, there is a minor chance this’ll get mentioned tonight. I’m gunning for something beyond costumes (I think that’s separate on the nom list anyway) or Mii outfits (which are 99.99999% gonna happen). I was thinking echoes for DLC or a second fighter pass.
 
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Lycanroc:

Chance - 5%

He is Ash's ace in the anime and an Earthbending wolf. That is unique as hell! I could see him becoming a fighter buuuuut after Incineroar I'm highly doubting a new Pokemon to be added at this point.... Also the fighter pass doesn't help at all since we already have Alolan music.

Want - 90%

Lycanroc is one of my all time favourite Pokemon and I was heavily on board for him being the likeliest for Ultimate but I guess we were wrong... I know it bothered many others but since Incineroar was my second choice I'm not all too bothered. That being said he is an Earthbender and that is something I really want to see in Smash and as an Isaac supporter that might be the closest I get to one (just putting it out there that these 2 characters would be completley different). Dusk Lycanroc in particular is so full of personality and I had a great time using him playing through Pokemon Sun. Oh and also I want an Alola stage god dammit.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 
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False Sense

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Lycanroc Chance: 5%

I don't really see us getting another Pokemon rep through DLC. It's within the realm of possibility, and I can see one being suggested by Nintendo, but I'm not sure it'd take priority, and even then, I'm not sure Lycanroc would be chosen. He at least is one of the more notable choices for a rep, so he has that going for him.

Lycanroc Want: 80%

Lycanroc's pretty cool. I think he'd be fun and I know some people are really passionate about him. He's not exactly one of my top choices, though.
 
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KiwiHusky47

Banned (6 Points)
Joined
Dec 6, 2018
Messages
14
Chance: 2%

Incineroar being revealed pretty much pulled the trigger for Lycanroc. Ash's main in the anime gave it a plus, but the chances of it being DLC is slim to none now. It does not help that Sakurai mentioned all of the DLC picks for the upcoming pack is from 2014 and before.

Want: 75%

An unique fighter! An earth bender! What more is there to say? We could use more fighters like Lycanroc! It's a Rock type too and we haven't had one yet

I am not sure if I did this correctly, so please let me know if I did this right.
 
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Like-N-Rock:

Chance: 0.1%: They always only do one or zero Pokemon per generation, unless that generation is 1. We already have Incineroar, so I don't see them putting any more Gen 7 'mons in. We're far more likely to get either Eevee to promote Pokemon Sticker Star Let's Go or a Gen 8 Pokemon to promote the 2019 Game.

Want: 10%. I don't care for Lycanroc. I don't hate him, but I don't see his appeal as a Pokemon. I think there were better choices for a Gen 7 'mon than Incineroar, like Decidueye or an Ultra Beast (Seriously, Sakurai? NOT EVEN ONE UB IN A POKEBALL!?) , but I'd take Incineroar over Lycanroc. Not much else to say.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x5.
 
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shocktarts17

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Nov 21, 2018
Messages
143
Location
Indiana
Chance: 2%

Incineroar being revealed pretty much pulled the trigger for Lycanroc. Ash's main in the anime gave it a plus, but the chances of it being DLC is slim to none now. It does not help that Sakurai mentioned all of the DLC picks for the upcoming pack is from 2014 and before.

Want: 75%

An unique fighter! An earth bender! What more is there to say? We could use more fighters like Lycanroc! It's a Rock type too and we haven't had one yet

I am not sure if I did this correctly, so please let me know if I did this right.
Yeah thats right, though if you want to nominate anyone for future days you can (up to 5 nominations) and you can try to predict the next day's percentage for bonus nominations.
 

Icedragonadam

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Lycanroc

Chance: 0.01%. We already have a gen 7 rep. And he's not really appealing enough for a DLC rep from a financial standpoint.

Want: 1%. Please no. Just no more Pokemon characters,

Chibi-Robo prediction: 2.01%

Nominate: All DLC is 3rd Party x5
 

[Maple]

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Nov 18, 2018
Messages
104
Lycanroc:

Chance: 0%

Want: 1%

I'm tired of Pokémon since X and Y. The games are boring, simple, poor in term of contents. Maybe I'm just too old now but it disgusts me how much Gamefreak has no ambition. I am not really against Lycanroc. His day form looks cool but that's it.
 

GhostYB

Smash Apprentice
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Nov 27, 2018
Messages
87
Lycanroc

Chance: 10% Extremely unlikely, we already have a pokemon, doubt we're getting another. Plus Nintedo said the DLCs are gonna be very surprising. Can't see this one being too hyped up.

Want: 1% Sorry, but I just really don't find this pokemon intresting enough to be a dlc, there are so many other better picks than him and I haven't really played much of Sun and Moon to get attachted to him.
 
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KiwiHusky47

Banned (6 Points)
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Messages
14
Yeah thats right, though if you want to nominate anyone for future days you can (up to 5 nominations) and you can try to predict the next day's percentage for bonus nominations.
Whew thank you! :)

What characters can I put down because it seems like 200+ days are just there and not many characters to choose?
 

[Maple]

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Nov 18, 2018
Messages
104
Lycanroc

Chance: 10% Extremely unlikely, we already have a pokemon, doubt we're getting another. Plus Nintedo said the DLCs are gonna be very surprising. Can't see this one being too hyped up.

Want: 1% Sorry, but I just really don't find this pokemon intresting enough to be a dlc, there are so many other better picks than him and I haven't really played much of X and Y to get attachted to him.
He is from Sun and Moon
 

shocktarts17

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Messages
143
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Whew thank you! :)

What characters can I put down because it seems like 200+ days are just there and not many characters to choose?
Whoever you want, the owner of the thread keeps a tally and posts it every so often if you were wanting to pick someone who's already starting to get nominations (hint Ravio is super cool so you should nominate him :laugh:).

You can also nominate concepts or recounts but it has to be a certain distance from their day or something has to change I think to do a recount. Concepts are like the one a few posts up who nominated "All DLC is 3rd party"
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
2,280
Smash broke street date where I’m at and I managed to get my grubby paws on a copy, sorry for lateness. My phone’s got 2% battery so I’ll drop a quick rating and calc noms later.

Dog

I feel bad for Pokémon fans. No matter how much they want a character, if it’s not the latest, it’s not getting in. If it is the latest, it has a shot, but a lot of competition, and then that’s it. So I’m sorry for however many Mimikyu, Primarina, Rowlet, Decidueye fans who basically lost all hope.

Yeah, we won’t get a Gen 7 Pokémon DLC. We’ll get a Gen 8 shill Rep or nothing.

Want: 0%
Despite my sympathy, I don’t like Lycanroc’s design. He steps on Isaac’s toes. And we have 10 bloody Pokémon. I want cuts there, not more.

Nominations: Mach RiderX5

Predictions: Chibi Robo 5%
 
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