Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DlC Edition! Day 213: Toad (Mario) and Captain Toad (Mario) (Double Day)

Kitty-chan

Happy Pyromaniac Neko
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200
Location
My duct tape sealed basement watching Catsoup nya~
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1203-9800-8781
ARMS

Chance; 20%
I gave the series a 70% last time nya. I've dragged it down to 1/5 purgatory because I think that with us getting less nyucomers and the roster being decided in 2015... ARMS is just likelier to be DLC, rather than base game nyaaaaaa~

Want: 60%
Long as they won't be in as some freaky sorta Little Mach Echo from my night terrors, I see nyo issues nyaaaa~ They have a fair nyamount of potential meww.


Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 30%
Previously Abstained nya. RH is pretty popular in Japan and does well nya, how it does here I haven't a clue nya. There's been some magical leaks flying nyaround and bumping into my face, but leaks are just leaks nyaaa~ Nyo guarantee nyaa~ And I haven't seen any recent leaks for RH that just screams "I'm real!" nyaa~

Want: 60%
Opinion hasn't changed nyaaaaaa~ RH has plenty of interesting characters, so I'd be happy seeing it in smash nya~


Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 80%
I'm a little less confidant nyabout us getting a pokemon nyucomer, with there being less nyucomers this time nyaround nya, but I still believe the chances are high nya~ Personally, I'd think it'd be silly nyot to add one nya.

Want: 100%
I like Pokemon nyaaa~ My most wanted Pokemon is in gen 7, and I have zero issues with the other likely gen 7 Pokemon... so nya.


Nyominations
Ayumi Tachibana: x5
 

Troykv

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2015
Messages
3,358
Gen 7 Pokémon

Chance 80%
Want: 50%

I still think is very likely we'll get a new Pokémon Character just because Pokémon doesn't have the same problem the other "over-represented" franchises have... Pokémon has massively mass appeal; and every good choice they gives us will be received with open arms because Pokémon is just that big.

Arms Newcomer.

Chance 10%
Want: 50%

Not impossible; but still the franchise arrived too late for base game (and unlike BotW; this game isn't a established series).

RH Newcomer

Chance 30%
Want: 30%

The leaks and datamine suggest the idea of a RH Character being at least under development before being scrapped for some reason... I don't have other reasons to believe this franchise can get a playable character.


______________

Prediction:

Leon Kennedy: 12.4%

Nominations

Adeleine x3
Ayumi Tachibana x2
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,344
ARMS character

Chance - 2.5% - I view it as a lock for DLC, but I think they got in too late for the base game. It did decently well for a new IP, but the main problem is that the characters were made probably too early to make in in the base game.

Want - 75% - Hey, I enjoyed the game. Should be interesting seeing a really long rage fighter like them.


Rhythm Heaven newcomer

Chance - 40% - At the very least, there was something in the works for a playable character during For. We don't know the reason why they were exluded, but it does show that the sereis was on his mind. With a tighter roster combined with unknown reasons for not including them, though, I view them as a reasonable but not exaclty likely choice.

Want - 60% - Dependent on the pick, though I would like a character. I would prefer Karate Joe over all others, though.


Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance - 95% - Honestly, Pokemon's such a juggernaut of a franchise that I can afford to keep adding characters. There is very little reason not to, considering that Gen 7 was one of it's best sellers. The question is more of a "who" and not "if", in my opinon.

Want - 75% - I'll probably enjoy the newcomer, though again it probably depends on who.


Prediction

Leon Kenndy - 6.45% - Not seen as supper likely.


Nominations

Nihilego X5
 
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Arms character

Chance: 15%

This will shoot right back up if DLC happens, Arms has gotten decent promotion and has sold pretty well so I expect it to be a frontrunner there. At this point it does seem too late for base game. Heck, when the director says it might be too new, it probably is. Could still be a chance someone (probably Spring Man) made it in later, but again the likely spot will be DLC.

Want: 60%

Haven't played Arms yet and do kind of think DLC would be the best place for it now. I think the choice absolutely makes sense though and the potential seems fun enough, so I would be completely fine with a character.

Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 60%

Out of all the Nintendo franchises that don't yet have a playable character, I think Rhythm Heaven is definitely in the best position. It's extremely likely someone was originally planned last game but dropped for whatever reason. If the reason is something different than what I think it is then it might hurt it, but I'm in the camp that believes Chorus Kids were indeed planned for inclusion last time, and that the likely reason for their cut was 3DS issues. If that was the case it wouldn't be a problem again, and Megamix's timing is great so I could easily see him trying again. I feel like like the biggest thing going against this is that Rhythm Heaven content isn't the most popular request, though then again it's not too uncommon either, especially after Gematsu. We also don't know for sure the full reason why it didn't happen last time, and while some characters considered before make the cut later not all of them do. All things considered though, this has a very realistic shot.

Want: 100%

Honestly this isn't far behind K. Rool and Dixie when it comes to my top Nintendo choices. I absolutely adore Rhythm Heaven, it's one of my favorite Nintendo franchises and my favorite not yet represented in Smash. I've finally bought and beaten Megamix since the first rating and it has made me want this even more. I'd be happy-ish to see a stage since it'd be something but I'd be a bit disappointed if that was it, there's so much cool potential here. At this point I'd be happy with any character from the series, just give me someone!

Gen 7 Pokémon

Chance: 95%

I doubt the veterans being brought back so that everyone could be here effects anything honestly. I'm not expecting slots to matter much. Regardless of how many are in, Pokémon is one of the most successful video game franchises in history and has always sold super well, so including one of the newest ones to show it off further has never been a bad idea and would make plenty of fans happy. It's really more "who will it be?" than "will it happen?" to me.

Want: ABSTAIN

Depends entirely on who it is. There's one I want and others I'd be happy with, some I don't want at all, and others still I'm completely indifferent to.

Leon prediction: 17.71%

Nominations: Tails x5
 

Gerrothorax

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89
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Triassic Sweden
Arms Newcomer
Chance: 5%

Way to late to be added in the base game.
Want: 30%
Springman is boring AF but I wouldn't mind someone else from the cast.
Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 80%

We already know that a RH character was planned for Smash 4 and since Megamix was released when the roster was being decided they definitely have a good chance of getting in.
Want: Abstain
Gen 7 Newcomer
Chance: 95%

Only real question is which Pokemon it'll be.
Want: 75%
Mimikyu is the only one I want, anyone else and i'll be disappointed.
Nominations: x5 Ken Masters
 

Noventiaa

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jul 1, 2018
Messages
56
ARMS:

Chance: 15%

like others have said, too late to be added.

Want: 10%

I can't lie, i'd be a bit disappointed. I can't imagine they would be much more than stretchy little mac and i think there's much better choices.

Gen 7 Pokemon

Chance: 75%

Out of 6 or so newcomers, (guess, obviously, but i think that'll be how many they are) i'd be suprised if one of them wasn't a Pokemon. It'd be decidueye, most likely.

Want: 60%

It'd be cool, but i wouldn't be too thrilled, since it's quite expected and i play Pokemon much less than i used to.

Not commenting on RH since i've never played it.
 
Joined
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Generation 7 Pokemon
Chance: 80% - I have a hard time seeing us getting a new Smash game without a new Pokemon character. Pokemon is one of the biggest IPs in gaming, and unlike Mario and Zelda, it is constantly having it's main cast updated with new mascots. Introducing a new Pokemon to represent the latest generation just feels like par the course for a new SSB game.
Want: 60%

Rhythm Heaven character
Chance: 40% - There does seem to be a lot of evidence pointing to the Chorus Kids being planned for SSB4. It's definitely possible Sakurai might try to revisit that idea or at least something similar. Unfortunately, we are expected to have a lot less newcomers this time around and RH doesn't seem to be nearly as popular as it was when SSB4 was in development.
Want: 70%

ARMs character
Chance: 20% - They're probably too new for Smash.
Want: 40%

Nominations: Edelgard x5
 
Joined
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Messages
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Gen 7 Pokemon
Chance : 90%
I'll fight this forever. (Well until the game comes out or we get an announcement). The 10% is just in case I'm wrong. But it would be insane to not get a Gen 7 pokemon.

Want: 50-100%
Sorry but this is how it's gotta be. There's no mostly likely candidate and while Mimikyu would be a solid 100 and Decidueye a good 80-90, it falls with Inceniroar and Lycanroc. But I'll keep it limit it to 50 because I generally like playing as Pokemon in Smash.

ARMS
Chance: 5%
I can't decide if it's too high...or maybe even too low. But it seems impossible for base at this moment. It would mean a change in how Sakurai plans characters for Smash as well as seeing potential in a brand new IP which didn't quite blow up as quickly as Splatoon. It's not likely.
Want: 100% (0%)
Another one that depends on who, however with Spring Man and Ribbon Girl being the most likely I would just be ecstatic to have ARMS characters (I love the series). Next up is probably Twintelle or Min Min, or maybe Max Brass and Dr. Coyle for story reasons and I love them all too!

So as long as it's not Mechanicha or Master Mummy which is extremely unlikely, I'll be very happy.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 75%
Seems about right. Don't got much else to say. Just that there is evidence Sakurai tried in the past and could revisit.

Want: 60%
A rhythm based fighter would be cool but if they don't work that into the Moveset I'd be dissapointed.

( TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom I really don't wanna be annoying but did you ever post the Pokemon recalcs? I wanna sulk about how Mimikyu dropped)
 

Quetzal77

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Arms
Chance: 60%/Want: abstain
Still think it's highly likely but it may not be until DLC comes around. More likely than not imo.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 10%/Want: abstain
Pretty unlikely as they haven't been relevant in a while afaik. There were rumours last time but nothing this time.

Gen 7 Pkmn
Chance: 90%/Want: abstain
Gen 8 is coming too late so it's almost guaranteed to happen. Abstain on want because it depends who is chosen.

Nominations: Neku x 5
 
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Okay since I'm not really feeling it right now, I'm gonna just rate my want score to the gen VII Pokémon want.

Generation Pokémon VII want: 65%
I enjoyed my Pokémon Sun experience especially because I had the opportunity of playing it mostly blind and anyway the most serious candidates to feel the niche all have their unique appeal. Anyway Pokémon feels like a safe bet to me when it comes to guaranteeing a newcomer slot because of the uniqueness and star power of its contenders, as a result not having a Pokémon newcomer would feel slightly disappointing. There's a common hypothesis that highly requested characters might be this game's focus for newcomers, but considering the intrinsic advantages Pokémon has as a series when it comes to Smash newcomers then if that's indeed the newcomer philosophy for this game then I'd like this one in particular to be an exception (of course nobody asked for a specific generation VII Pokémon newcomer back in late 2015).
Also link to my re-rating of the three most popular choices for a generation VII Pokémon newcomer

Leon prediction: 14.36%

Nominating: speaking about generation VII...
New item: Beast Ball x5
 
Joined
Jun 18, 2013
Messages
1,667
ARMS
Chance: 10% a late addition? Eh, maybe.

Want: Abstain, never played it

Gen 7
Chance: 62% I mean, "Sakurai adds at least one pokemon newcomer every game" does seem like a rule meant to be broken, but there doesn't really seem like much of a reason not to. I mean, sure you could argue that Smash has a lot of Pokemon already, but if there's any series other than Mario that's going to have a ridiculous amount of characters it might as well be Pokemon. And I personally think the often floated potential gen 7 newcomers could easily be unique. So there's not really anything stopping Pokemon from getting a newcomer other than a potentially limited roster size. Which granted, could be an issue.

Want: 90% I like Pokemon and while I find Gen 7's game to be one of the weaker installments of the franchise I like most of the Pokemon people are suggesting. Decidueye? Great. Mimikyu? Even better. Lycanroc? Sure. Nihilego? Unlikely but it'd be awesome if it happened. Buzzwole? I'll take it. I'm not a fan of Incineroar, but as long as it isn't a Captain Falcon clone or something dumb like that it'd probably still have a cool moveset.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 40% If the Chorus Kids thing is true then I don't see any 3DS limitations getting in the way this time. I feel like most of the newcomers will be highly requested characters, but I think there's still probably room for one or two weird picks, and Rhythm Heaven could certainly provide that.

Want: 50% Eh, I never played a Rhythm Heaven game but I tend to like the weird/quirky additions to the cast, so I'd probably like it if it happened... probably.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
2,244
Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 10%/Want: abstain
Pretty unlikely as they haven't been relevant in a while afaik. There were rumours last time but nothing this time.
The latest game was released in 2015 in Japan, 2016 in North America. The previous game, from 2012, was rereleased on the Wii U in 2016. As relevance goes, you can’t get better than that.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Premium
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Messages
1,690
Generation VII Pokémon want: 0.1%

There are some Pokémon I would actually like from Gen 7, such as Oranguru or Alolan Marowak, but their chances of getting in are so low that they don't raise the weighted average to a very high number.

Nominations:

FE Spear User x5

Arms character want: 1.5%

Rhythm Heaven character want: 0.5%

Nominations:

Neku x5
 

ProfPeanut

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
374
ARMS Rep

Chance: 40% (<- 80%)
A 2015 draft would predate the release of ARMS by a significant margin - but if you're already developing Smash for the Switch two years before anyone knows a thing about it, then there's a chance that you might also informed about whatever particular titles the console will be launching with. But only a chance, admittedly. There's no real precedent here for a Smash title coming out so close to a console's launch while still being preceded by new properties with potential newcomers - Melee is the closest, and it was the launch title, based almost entirely on N64 titles. I can't deny that things have suddenly turned really bad for ARMS now, given all these schedules to keep track of.

ARMS will have been out for more than a year and a half by the time Ultimate comes out. Closest cut I can think of is Pokemon X/Y being out 11 months before Smash 4 came out on the 3DS, but of course, Greninja was previewed to Sakurai ahead of the curve. We don't even know when ARMS started development, but we do know that the idea of stretchy-armed fighting characters was there from the game's inception. It's possible that Sakurai could've worked with the concept first and the actual character to be used later, assuming he cared enough to look ahead into Nintendo's line-up. But since Sora Ltd isn't exactly Nintendo's internal development team, they definitely wouldn't have known about ARMS unless they explicitly asked for a potential new property that'd precede Ultimate's release, or until they see its launch trailer for themselves.

Want: 100% (<- 15%)
Am I the only one who doesn't like the idea of consigning something to DLC? It gives the impression that we'd be otherwise playing an "incomplete" game until this or that character shows up to fill the roster, especially when Smash is defined so largely by the people who're in it. The lack of ARMS in Ultimate would be a sore absence until they showed up, even if the game didn't turn out as successfully as Splatoon did.


Gen VII Rep

Chance: 80%
Pokemon currently holds the highest density of unique fighters in the roster. Can you believe that there's 9 different playable Pokemon characters, and only one of them is a semi-clone?

But like I've said before, the reason for Pokemon having consistent newcomers is much less because it deserves them than it is that Pokemon simply keeps offering potential newcomers for Sakurai to choose from. New "relevant" characters bringing brand new concepts and fighting styles makes for an easy source of new fighters for Smash, and there's still more candidates this time around than any other generation.

But...Pokemon Sun/Moon came out on November of 2016, nearly a full year after Ultimate's design was planned out. We can assume that another Greninja situation might've happened behind the scenes of course, but we'd also have to realize that the idea of all 9 playable Pokemon veterans returning would be established even before that.

There's also the possibility, I suppose, that The Pokemon Company steps in and tells Sakurai not to put a Gen 7 'mon in, in case it draws attention away from the upcoming Generation 8. Not that it's likely that we'll be seeing that generation within the firs half of 2019, of course, but it's hard to deny that the sun's setting on Alola.

Want: 75%
Mimikyu, Decidueye, Tapu Koko, or bust. Either they make their choice a really good one, or they decide to give another franchise more room this time. Not exactly much room to give out, after all.


Rhythm Heaven Rep

Chance: 75% (<-35%)
It might happen. Rhythm Heaven Megamix came out in 2015, and in terms of relevancy, Rhythm Heaven is still going strong. Not to mention, it's conceptually friendly to newcomers - you could have no idea what it was, but still understand what it's about, and that's how you introduce franchises to people We don't exactly have a music game rep either, or a character based off of music.

What I wouldn't do, though, is take the idea that just because they had things planned in the last game and use that to assume that they're in for certain. We've seen characters either delayed or canceled before, even when they were the game files of a previous Smash title, and I don't buy the idea that there was a mechanic that held them back from Smash 4 - what would that have to have been, that the 3DS couldn't handle it? Not saying it's implausible, but that people seem pretty quick to deem that as the killing blow for Rhythm Heaven's rep - you'd think developing for the 3DS from the get-go would've tempered whatever moveset Sakurai composed for them from being too crazy.

I guess I have to admit that there's the chance that whatever mechanic they used only turned out to be untenable midway through Smash 4's development, which would explain the clues left behind like so much debris. It'd be hard arguing against why they wouldn't make it into Ultimate afterwards, in that case.

Want:: 10% (<-1%)
What I don't like about this idea is that there's no solid one character you could pick, with none of the chorus really being outstanding on their own. If we're going for the ideal representative here, then it ought to be someone who could represent any part of Rhythm Heaven that they wanted to, rather than being held back by their character or capabilities. Not to mention the idea of tying a beat into Smash is a heck of a tricky mechanic to implement. The one thing you absolutely should not do is tie a character's moveset into a predictable rhythm, especially not in a multiplayer game of all places.



Prediction:
Leon Kennedy: 4.7%

Nominations:
Ninten x5
 
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DjinnandTonic

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Hmm... you know, the way you just argued -against- a rhythm fighter just inspired me on how one could work.

Yes, I understand your concern about tying a character's attacks to a predictable rhythm.

But what if that's the point?
Your opponent knows -when- it is coming. But that opens up the design space to make it a mystery as to -what- is coming. Also, if you have a character that is tied to a predictable rhythm... what happens if you give that character one or two abilities that -break- the rhythm? Talk about mind games!

I wonder if I should update my 'Want' rating now?
 

Erureido

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Generation 7 Pokemon newcomer

Chance: 90% --> 65%

I don't think we're as likely to get an Alola Pokemon like we previously rated, especially with all those veteran Pokemon that came back, but I still think it's got a higher than average shot seeing how we've been getting a new Pokemon rep in every Smash game, not to mention several Alola Pokemon already appear as Pokeball Summons.

Want: 80% --> 80%

Copy and pasting from what I said last time:

I liked Generation 7, and it's got a bunch of cool Pokemon. There's only a few of the major candidates that I'm opposed to, but I do have a number of Alola Pokemon I'd love to see making it into the roster. Primarina is among my most wanted, though I'd also be cool with the likes of Tapu Koko, Decidueye, and Lurantis making the cut as well. Funnily enough, I do have one Pokemon I'd rather see over all other generation 7 reps, but I already know said Pokemon is unlikely at the moment because it doesn't have the relevancy compared to the generation 7 reps.
------

ARMS rep

Chance: 80% -> 30%

Yeah, it's too late for them to be added in the base roster, seeing how the roster was decided back in 2015-2016. It's more likely to be a DLC addition at this rate.

Want: 100% --> 100%

The 100% is just for Spring Man, who is among my most wanted, but I'd be happy with seeing Ninjara and Kid Cobra, my two mains, as well.

------

Rhythm Heaven Rep

Chance: 80% --> 80%

I still think this has a good chance of happening. In fact, I'd even go as far as saying it's currently the most likely amongst the unrepresented Nintendo IPs on the current Smash roster to finally receive said representation, especially since Rhythm Heaven has become decently known for a Nintendo IP these past few years and even had a representative planned for Smash 4.

Want: 50% --> 50%

Like I said last time, it would be cool, but it's not something I desperately want. Marshall and the Chorus Kids led by the conductor are the two I'm most interested in seeing when it comes to this concept, but I'm sure characters like Tibby and Karate Joe could also make decent choices.

------

Predictions

Leon Kennedy (Resident Evil): 7.18%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x5
 
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andimidna

Smash Master
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Gusty garden galaxy
ARMS:
Chance: 20%
More likely for DLC. Nothing that hasn’t been said already
Want: 80%

RH:
I still think the Gematsu leak represented early ideas for the game and the chorus kids were planned before they couldn’t get the ICs to work on 3ds. Not only that, but it has all the qualifications for a “rep” on its own, and wouldn’t even need one as it bring insteresting rhythm based moveset material
Chance: 55%
Want: 95%

Gen 7 Pokemon:
Decidueye/Rowlet, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu all have their merits. There’d be no glaring omission without them, but they could all bring a lot to the table
Chance: 45%
Want: 85%

Pre Leon: 6.75%

x5 Hanafuda character
 

Arcanir

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ARMS

Chance: 35%
The first project proposal was submitted in December of 2015, with the idea of having every character return seemingly being decided just as early if not around that time, s the roster was potentially already being planned very early on. That means that potentially at the time, ARMs could've been in a state where getting new characters from it may've not have been feasible for one reason or another to go with a new character from it, and due to that possibility it may get overlooked for more established series/characters around the time.

With that said, the potential of a Greninja situation does exist and it was one of Switch's premier titles, so it getting a new character on the base roster isn't impossible.

Want: 50%
Don't mind either way.


Rhythm Heaven newcomer

Chance: 65%
I'd say it has a good chance, we have the evidence that shows it was at least considered for Smash 4, it's always been a popular series in Japan, and Megamix came out before the end of 2015 meaning it would've been in on people's minds during the time that the roster was being worked on. Due to those facts, I can see a scenario where Sakurai revisits the concept he had for Smash 4 and implement it into the new game, especially if what held it back was mechanical issues at the time.

The only reason I don't rate it too highly is that we don't know what happened with the concept in the past and why it was dropped. If it was dropped because of mechanical issues or time, then it can easily be done again, but if it's because the concept just didn't pop out enough during development and it was dropped for that it could prevent their revisit since they may not be deemed as interesting. In the end, it depends on what the situation is behind their exclusion and what's going on with Smash Ultimate's newcomers.

Want: 50%
Again, I don't mind either way.


Gen 7 Pokémon Newcomer

Chance: 85%
I still think this is more likely then not. Pokémon always provides a character that will be popular, unique, relevant and promoted in the franchise so you check off a number of things that are looked for in a newcomer. Even with the high number of characters on the roster for it, I don't think that deters the option since Pokemon is a huge franchise and can afford to have that many characters under its belt, it's not quite at the level where I feel Sakurai would be more wary of adding more. Finally, since SM is a milestone for the franchise (being its 20th anniversary game) I do think there's more reason to add a character from the region.

Want: 95%
With as many options as it has, all of which being likeable in my opinion, I'd be very happy to get at least one of them in the game.


Speaking of Pokémon...

Nomination: Incineroar x5

We haven't discussed this big guy yet, I think it's time we took a look at him.
 
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Mar 19, 2009
Messages
956
ARMS Newcomer

Chance: 60% - This is including DLC for me. Less confident in ol Springo than I used to be, but I still think he's first in line for DLC when it happens.

Want: 70% - After seeing Inklings in action, I feel like there'd be something missing if Nintendo's other big new IP didn't show up. Hoping to see Spring Man join that big banner somewhere down the line.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer

Chance: 50% - Sakurai planned one before, likely the infamous Chorus Kids, but that doesn't always mean a guaranteed spot next go around. Dixie, Toon Zelda, and Plusle/Minun proved that. Still, the idea that they might've been cut due to the same issues the Ice Climbers ran into with the 3DS might mean they get a second chance now that there's no 3DS to hold them back.

Want: 40% - I'm really terrible at Rhythm games, and I'm not a big fan of Sakurai's choice of the Chorus Kids to rep the franchise. Someone like Marshal or Tibby would be a much better choice. If it's them, I'm down, but I'd rather see an actual named character over the nameless trio.

Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer

Chance: 85% - Sure we have a lot of Pokemon reps now, but I still think we're more likely than not going to see one more. Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, Tapu Koko, Silvally and others all make compelling cases, it's just a matter of which one will get picked.

Want: 65% - The Gen 7 options are a mixed bag for me. Decidueye would be the best pick, Mimikyu and Tapu Koko would still be good choices, and then others like Lycanroc, Silvally, and the rest of the options I'd be significantly less happy about. Considering the likeliest ones are the ones I'd be happiest with, I'm gonna give this a positive score for now.

Predictions

Leon Kennedy: 5.11% - Capcom already has two characters in Megaman and Ryu, and I doubt with spots being as limited as they are that we'd get a third. He's not even the most iconic protag of his own series! Jill Valentine would be a better rep for Resident Evil in pretty much every way, and I think she's a far more likely choice than Leon any day of the week.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5
 

Icedragonadam

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ARMS Character

Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

Unlikely for the base game. It was too early for ARMS to get a character in the base. DLC however is a likely chance. But I'll rate that during the DLC season of RTCs.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 25%
Want: 70%

Considering the theme of fanservice characters. I doubt this will be happening in the base game. It's more of an expected prediction rather than a genuine request for a rep.

Gen 7

Chance: 30%
Want: 70%

With like 10 Pokemon characters right now I'm leaning towards no for a new Pokemon newcomer overall. It could happen with DLC though.

Lloyd Irving x5
 

TheFritzle

Smash Apprentice
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ARMS Newcomer:
Chance: 25%
At the beginning of speculation for this game, I was so confident in an ARMS character, specifically Springman, that I would have given them a 95%. Times have changed though, and I'd be surprised to see one in the base game, DLC is another question. ARMS was most likely released too late to be considered. ARMS was a new property, so Nintendo didn't know how well it would do and Sakurai would most likely hold it off like Inklings for Smash 4.

Want: 50%
I don't care. I played the ARMS testpunch for an hour and than felt satisfied with the game. They would be cool as a long-range fighter, but I don't care either way.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:
Chance: 70%
A Rhythm Heaven newcomer has already been acknowledged as a big possibility through Smash 4. With Chorus Men supposedly being planned for the game, a Rhythm Heaven character seems like a very likely. There aren't really many problems in their way, and a Rhythm fighter feels like the exact kind of strange fighter Sakurai would want.

Want: 70%
Depends on who we get. I don't really care for the Chorus Men, but I wouldn't mind having Karate Joe. Either way I probably wouldn't play them much so I don't have much input.

Gen 7 Pokemon:
Chance: 75%
Pokemon has been going strong with newcomers since the original game, so it is very likely we will get one more this game. Gen 7 has a ton of possible and debated characters like Decidueye, Lycanroc, Mimikyu, Incineroar, Buzzwole, Tapu Koko, among others. There are so many different possible Pokemon here that Sakurai may see some kind of interesting playstyle among one and have them be playable. The fact that Greninja got in Smash 4 through his design documents shows to me Pokemon does have an interesting presence within the newcomers. I think the only detractor is that this game is going to have a much smaller newcomer count, and Sakurai may hold off a Pokemon newcomer, since we are getting the return of Pichu, Squirtle, and Ivysaur, and he may not want to a repeat of what happened with Fire Emblem.

Want: 65%
Once again, it depends on who we get. Buzzwole is my personal favorite, and if it is just him, than it would be a 100%. But, I don't really like any of the other characters, and I'd rather Pokemon sit out this round in favor of other characters.
 

Gamer-YTP

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ARMS Newcomer:

Chance: 25%
While it is a new IP, the game was doing fine until Splatoon 2 came along and buried it. Plus, the roster decision was probably too early and all that. Plus, I fear he might be a little too good with a moveset based around long-ranged punches. And even if they tried to make him slower, he could be too bad instead. I'm sure Sakurai could find a way, but at the moment, I think he'd be better as an Assist Trophy. I do think we could see an ARMS stage in this game though.

Want: 15%
I thought ARMS was a bit disappointing in my opinion, so I wouldn't be super thrilled. Especially since I think there are older IPs of Nintendo's that need representation before anyone from ARMS. Speaking of...


Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:
Chance: 75%
I think a Rhythm Heaven character could show up in Smash either in the base game, or as DLC. It's a great series that is well-known, and could work in Smash. I just personally think it would more likely be DLC since I think there's other, more important fighters they might want to add to the base game.

Want: 95%
Rhtyhm Heaven is fun, and has a ton of memorable characters. Specifically, I want Marshal to represent it so that he could be like G&W and use items from the minigames as weapons, like the Screwbots or the Dancing Lobsters.


Gen 7 Pokemon Newcomer:

Chance: 95%
I'm seriously thinking we'll see someone from Sun & Moon in this game. Either Decidueye, or someone else. Every Smash game has had a newcomer to promote the latest Gen, so it's likely that since Gen 8 isn't happening until 2019, we'll see someone from Gen 7 instead.

Want: 70%
Since I'm a Genwunner at heart (and to an extent a Gentwoer and Genthreer), I think I'd rather see more Pokemon from the first three Gens in Smash, but I have no problem seeing some from the later Gens either. Though, it would depend on who they go with. Right now, my money's on Decidueye, but I could be fine with some others like Mimikyu or Buzzwole.
 

BluePikmin11

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I did not think I would ever seriously rate this character in my time of speculating newcomers for Smash Ultimate, but here I am, finding Leon a plausible candidate. The main reason I did not consider him was because I personally never grew up with the Resident Evil games, as I immediately avoided horror games in general. I found third parties from mature franchises like Bayonetta super possible back in the Smash 4 DLC days, but never saw a Resident Evil character as a big possibility. It was not until I thought about Sakurai’s statement in a Nintendo Dream on there not being globally popular third parties left to add in Smash:

Final Fantasy VII (FFVII below) has never been released on a Nintendo console, so how did Cloud end up appearing in Smash?

Sakurai: Final Fantasy (FF below) is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left.”

Among the many possible third-party characters whose franchises are world-wide known, I could only think of Simon from Castlevania, Layton from Professor Layton, and Sora from Kingdom Hearts. Dragon Quest, Yo-kai Watch, and Monster Hunter never came to me as possible due to their franchises not being very successful in the West. I decided to research more on Capcom’s franchises after finding Monster Hunter implausible. When I saw Resident Evil’s global sales, it finally dawned on me. Resident Evil is one of the few uniquely Japanese third-party series that is massively successful in both Japan and West, with over 80 million sales under the franchise’s belt.

Not only that, but I recalled seeing numerous Resident Evil characters frequently and highly requested during pre-Smash 4 speculation and the ballot period, with names like Leon Kennedy, Jill Valentine, and Nemesis coming up as RE suggestions for many casual Smash fans. With Sakurai knowing about Resident Evil serving as the final coffin of my horror game bias, I have opened up to the possibility of a RE character. Not only would a Resident Evil character serve as a possible ballot candidate, but it would also be the perfect surprise Sakurai could ever think of. If Sakurai wanted to add third-party characters from globally recognized franchises for Smash Ultimate, a Resident Evil character would serve his needs greatly. The only questions that remain is figuring out who was the most requested RE character in the Smash Ballot and if the character’s use of realistic weapons could pose a major issue for Sakurai when it comes to age rating companies like CERO and ESRB.

When it comes to finding which Resident Evil character is most suggested by Smash fans, it all comes down to Jill Valentine and Leon Kennedy. From the polls I have seen, it seems like Leon was the most requested. When asking RE supporters about the reasons why Leon could have been requested more in the ballot, there was generally one primary reason. That being Leon’s game, Resident Evil 4, being most closely associated with Nintendo fans, as the franchise had a somewhat of a close history with Nintendo with titles such as Resident Evil: Revelations and Resident Evil 2 for the N64 coming to mind. Resident Evil 4 was the most impactful in Nintendo history, which could be why many casual Smash fans would have voted for Leon the most in the ballot. The reason I chose the most popular RE character was because Sakurai did a similar situation when deciding a Final Fantasy character for Smash, with Cloud being the most requested from fans according to Sakurai:

"Sakurai: This isn’t an exact number, but among the requests for a Final Fantasy character to appear in Smash, around ¼ to ⅓ of the requests we got from fans were for Cloud. [TN1] I really wanted to answer the desires of those fans, and even though I thought it would be impossible, I reached out anyway, just to try."

Now there is only one more matter to settle. Will Leon Kennedy’s use of real weaponry prevent Sakurai from adding the character? I do not believe this will be a problem. I personally think that Sakurai’s veteran experience with incorporating characters from mature titles in Smash like Snake and Bayonetta will help him find solutions into figuring out the right weaponry to use for Leon’s moveset. Sakurai has asked for several modifications of characters from many third-party developers and creators on what abilities and tools can a character utilize in Smash. With Capcom giving Sakurai the full freedom to modify characters like Mega Man and Ryu to translate them to Smash gameplay when needed, I feel VERY sure they will find a solution.

I feel strong about Sakurai finding a solution, especially when Hideki Kamiya, one of the creators of Leon Kennedy, would be absolutely willing to lend help with figuring out moves for Leon that stays true to his character, who previously let Sakurai modify Bayonetta back in the Smash 4 DLC days. Leon just has so much distinct moveset potential and characterization (with him rooting from the horror game genre coming to mind) that makes him a stand-out character from other Smash characters, that I think Sakurai would be immensely willing to get him in Smash in any way possible. Sakurai giving up on the RE character idea is very unlikely to happen, in my perspective.

Right now, I personally feel more confident about Leon Kennedy getting in than other third-parties at the moment. I feel more confident about Leon than even Simon Belmont, whom has Vergeben and personal history with Sakurai mainly backing up his inclusion. Leon is the character I think will be Smash Ultimate’s big third-party surprise, in the same vein as Snake and Cloud. I could be wrong, but with what Sakurai said about covering the bases with adding third-party characters from globally popular game franchises, how easy it is to negotiate with Capcom and Kamiya, and the moveset potential Leon can offer, I find it VERY hard to think that Leon will not be in this Smash after what I have learned. We will know in the coming months if my assessment is right.

-------------

x5 Hanafuda character
 

Souldin

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Wait... so we're rating just Leon Kennedy? Just him? Okay, little bit odd, but we did get three characters/concepts to rate for last time so fair enough.

Leon S Kennedy (Resident Evil series)
Chances: 5%
This is uh, a very strange suggestion. Not ludicrous by any means, there are factors going for him. Resident Evil is a hugely iconic horror franchise, Nintendo had good deals with the series back on the GameCube and in particular with Leon S Kennedy who has a strong association with the GameCube as a result. He is also a popular character.

All that said, so much else is against him; the heavy connections were all GameCube era, Leon would have to compete with other Resident Evil characters who might be considered more iconic for the series as a whole such as Jill or Chris (Cloud has little-to-no connection to Nintendo yet was still the chosen Final Fantasy representative), his heavy realistic gun focus isn't something Sakurai is keen on and the explosives alternative has been covered very well by Snake (not to say that they couldn't come up with unique move-sets, just that the obvious route is taken). Add to that the fact that Capcom already has two reps already in SSB, plus a limited roster with more requested first and even third party characters (to my knowledge, I don't usually see support for Leon), then further apply how Nintendo has other horror game alternatives that they either own the rights to (Eternal Darkness) or co-own (Fatal Frame/Project Zero)... I really don't see it happening. Then again, trying to fathom how Sakurai thinks is a dangerous path, so I wouldn't ever say it's impossible.

Want: 1%
In the case we get a Resident Evil character, due to Leon and Resident Evil 4's history with Nintendo, I have given him a 1% Want on the basis that he'd be the most appropriate. That said, he is very low because he is 3rd party and even lower because there are Nintendo affiliated horror game characters I'd rather see playable. Speaking of which...

Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist (I'm unsure if I should start spreading the love more with these nominations... I'm quite interested in hearing what people have to say about Kamek's chances, but I'll stick to Fatal Frame Protagonist for now).
 

CometX-ing

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Leon Kennedy
Chances: 10%

As popular as I know Resident Evil to be, I really don't think that we will be seeing a Leon in the game. I can see a Monster Hunter, given that it had a costume in the game as well as and sold a crap ton recently. I can even see Phoenix Wright given how his odd way of fighting would fit in Smash and since his series is so closely tied with Nintendo. But I can't see Leon or any Resident Evil character.

Want: 0%
I honestly don't want another Capcom rep in general, honestly.

Nominations:
Primarina x5
 
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Leon S. Kennedy

Chance - 1%

He's not a popular character choice, wasn't relevant around the time of Smash Ultimate planning, faces EXTREME competition from characters from the Ace Attorney franchise (Pheonix Wright is significantly more requested) and the Monster Hunter franchise (more Japanese appeal, already has representation in Smash, more connection with Nintendo), and the fact that Capcom getting a 3rd character doesn't exactly seem likely, when their franchises already are not only getting a lot of love currently, but how the only other 3rd party company with two characters is SEGA.

The only reason I didn't give him a zero is because I guess he's possible? I really just don't see it happening.

Want - 1%

I love RE4, so I wouldn't be upset, but I have absolutely no interest in seeing him in the game.
 

GoodGrief741

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Chance: 8%
Not great, but the combo of RE2make (which has been in development for ages now) and his importance to Nintendo might do the trick someday. He’s also the most popular RE character by far and his games are considered the best in the franchise.

Want: 75%
Would have been higher, but then I realized that he’s direct competition to Phoenix Wright so I docked him.

Who do we have to predict?
Edit: Slippy? Really? Well, 10% because somebody had to have nominated him.

Nominations: Ayumi TachibanaX5
 
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Leon
Chance: 30%
I haven't seen anything indicating that he's a popular request for Smash, but I think if that was overlooked for the sake of having a highly recognizable representative of the survival horror genre, it would be justified.
Want: 5%
 

AlphaSSB

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Leon Kennedy

Chance: 1% - A character I absolutely do not see. If Smash were to get another Capcom character, it'd most likely be Monster Hunter.

Want: 0% - I have no interest in adding more 3rd Party characters to the roster.

Nominations: DLC Promoting Deconfirmed Characters x5
 
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Leon
Change 7%
It could happen, I just don't think it will.
Spots are limited and we already have a lot of third parties and I have little doubt the next one will be Simon. He also isn't that requested
Want 0%
He seems uninteresting. And I have other preferences for third parties.

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x3
Daroach x2
 

Icedragonadam

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Leon S Kennedy

Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

Certainly a popular character from Resident Evil. And arguably tied with Chris as the face of the series. However I didn't hear much of him during the ballot. But he could of been a darkhorse character who ranked well.

Slippy Toad Prediction: 7.96%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5(if he's not locked in). If he is then Concept: More than 5 Unique Newcomers x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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The Evil Resident

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Despite BluePikmin11 BluePikmin11 ’s detailed analysis, I still latch on to the fact that third parties encounter many barriers to entry into Smash - and the rules we made up seem to have changed this round. We’re all jumping at assumption after assumption, but the only thing we’ve seen get in are Inkling (an inevitability, despite the ballot), Ridley (hugely requested, but may have gotten fewer ballot votes than expected since many regions forgot to mention that it also was for future planning, and many may have thought his stage boss appearance doomed him completely), and Daisy (who was never on many top-of-the-ballot polls, and became an echo). Sure it looks like the ballot’s in charge, but we can’t say anything for certain anymore.

On top of that, I can’t honestly say I remember much support for Leon or any of the other zombie killers around that time - I’d heard the name Shantae more. True, I was living in an echo chamber and Bayonetta blindsided us, but still. Also, I think Phoenix Wright is the most popular from Capcom based on random internet noise, so there’s another roadblock. Not to mention that, while I’m sure Sakurai has no rules on how many characters from each company are allowed, Nintendo’s lawyers might.

Oh, and the M rating and guns, but Snake and Bayo have that covered. Still, how far can the envelope be pushed?

I haven’t played Resident Evil, so I can’t really say much more about it. Still, a third party I don’t know from a genre I don’t play using a materiel-based moveset similar to one we have...doesn’t add up to a character I’ll be excited to see.

Slippy Prediction: 8.4%
Nom: Tails or Smash Run x5. I know one of those is locked in, but forgot which...
 
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BluePikmin11

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CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica , I disagree on your points on Leon.

Support for Resident Evil characters does exist. I have seen RE characters like Jill and Leon frequently wanted by fans since pre-Smash 4. And upon further research, he has been a notably discussed and wanted character since pre-Brawl speculation. RE characters are just as highly requested, but as easy to dismiss as Cloud's fan-support before his reveal in Smash 4.

And no offense, but I think it is an extremely weak argument that Nintendo lawyers might stop Sakurai from adding a 3rd Capcom character. There is no reason for Nintendo to stop Sakurai's creative decisions unless license budget constraints becomes an issue, but I doubt that will be a problem with the higher budget this Smash game likely is getting. Given what relationship Sakurai has with Capcom now in terms of Smash, a Resident Evil character is as easily negotiable and favorable as Mega Man's addition in Smash 4.
 

Sid-cada

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Leon S. Kennedy

Chance - 5% - Horror protagonists are hard to make interesting. They often have deliberately awkward control schemes and limited options in order to disempower the player. Resident Evil may be one of the major horror video games, but it mostly lacks the special abilities to make anyone a standout, and Leon being your typical "guy with a gun" protagonist doesn't help matters. In fact, if we were to get one, I'd half-expect someone like a major villain or monster, like the Nemesis, due to being more interesting. I'd be like suggesting a Silent Hill character and it not being Pyramid Head; it is the monsters that drive the plot in a horror game, while protagonists can end up just being there. That and there are simply more notable characters like the Monster Hunter to consider, who would provide more interesting move sets Even then , as Bomberman has proven to us, a franchise can be represented in other forms besides characters, even if they are third party.

Want - 20% - Not into horror. I also think that if we got a Resident Evil character, I would be more interested in the Monster.


Predictions

Slippy Toad - 2.43% - Not likely...


Nominations

Nihilego X5
 

Sari

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Leon S. Kennedy

Chance: 2%. Only relevance in Smash is that RE is pretty popular and he was in RE4 on the Gamecube. 3rd Party spots are limited as they are and there are much better Capcom reps out there.
Want: 0%. Don't care about him and again I'd rather have the 3rd party slots go to more unique characters. Not to mention Jill would be a much better RE rep.

Nominations

Terry Bogard x5
 
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ProfPeanut

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Leon Kennedy

Chance: 10%
A little similarly to Castlevania, Resident Evil (or Biohazard) has a pretty long history to call upon, a history that Leon would have to back on just like how Cloud back's on Final Fantasy as a whole. It's old, it's pretty famous, and it's the biggest franchise from the horror game genre that you could pull from.

But there's a lot of stiff resistance along the way there. Capcom was first to get a second rep in, true, so being the first at a third rep is possible too - just not really guaranteed. Not to mention that Capcom has so many other properties that I see get more clamour for him - Phoenix Wright is more iconic, Monster Hunter is more popular, and even oddballs like Amaterasu seem to have bigger followings. In comparison, Leon Kennedy is an otherwise average guy with guns, which Snake is already an improved version of, and I doubt an echo would be suitable for any new third-party reps.

Want: 5%
Yeah, not a fan here. I want to see Smash go big with its 3rd party selections, and Resident Evil struck me as more likely to get a stage or Nemesis Assist Trophy than a fighter.


Prediction
Slippy Toad: 20%

Nominations
Ninten x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica , I disagree on your points on Leon.

Support for Resident Evil characters does exist. I have seen RE characters like Jill and Leon frequently wanted by fans since pre-Smash 4. And upon further research, he has been a notably discussed and wanted character since pre-Brawl speculation. RE characters are just as highly requested, but as easy to dismiss as Cloud's fan-support before his reveal in Smash 4.

And no offense, but I think it is an extremely weak argument that Nintendo lawyers might stop Sakurai from adding a 3rd Capcom character. There is no reason for Nintendo to stop Sakurai's creative decisions unless license budget constraints becomes an issue, but I doubt that will be a problem with the higher budget this Smash game likely is getting. Given what relationship Sakurai has with Capcom now in terms of Smash, a Resident Evil character is as easily negotiable and favorable as Mega Man's addition in Smash 4.
No harm; as I've said I do admire your thorough analyses. I don't have as much research going into my ratings, really more of looking over the characters day-of and going with a gut feeling.

All I'm saying is that I haven't seen the level of support for Resident Evil as I have for other series. True, Cloud was thought by many as a non-starter before Sm4sh, but I've not heard legions of support even afterwards. Then again, I don't go looking for it either.

As to Leon himself, he is part of a triumvirate with Chris and Jill. Capcom's other major crossover fighting game has had both of them playable (MVC2, MVC3, UMVC3 for Jill and MVC3, UMVC3, MVCI for Chris). Leon...not. That shows that Capcom didn't even bother to put him their own crossover fighting game, preferring the other two. Will fansupport win out? Or is there a reason that Capcom's not choosing him? And if Resident Evil votes are split between the three, would Sakurai choose him? Or would Capcom suggest one that they like? None of the three is famous on the level of Cloud, so any of them could be a franchise representative.

And as I'd mentioned before, I think Phoenix has more pull for the next Capcom character, since I've heard about him a lot more. Of course I don't think there is a number of reps-per-company as others like to say, but if we get two more of Capcom's with the two we already have, what will co-developer Namco think since they only have one representative? Does that mean we need a couple more Namcos? Then how many Nintendo newcomers will we get in Nintendo's big crossover? Or will NoA pressure that some Western third parties should be represented *cough ElderScrolls cough*? The whole legalese here is a mess to consider. Anything is possible, but there are still loads of questions.

I tend to be more pessimistic on chances here in general in the first place. But then again, after I gave the following chances...
:ultridley:: 5%, :ultdaisy:: 5%, :ultpichu:: 1%, :ultyounglink:: 1%, :ultsnake:: 3%, :ultpokemontrainer:: 5%...
I realize I'm waaaaaaay bad at this game.

Maybe I need to get my gut feeling recalibrated.
 
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Leon Kennedy
Chance: 4% -
Resident Evil is a highly successful franchise, but Capcom's most successful franchises are already represented. I can't see them getting a third character and if they did, I'd probably guess it'd be for one of the already existing franchises.
Want: 0% - I have no interest in this franchise at all.

Prediction: Slippy
Chance: 7.12%
Want: 15.19%


Nominations
Sakura Shinguji x5
 
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