Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Artix]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 5%
Hollow Knight might be one of the indie characters that might actually have a shot in Smash. And that's simply because Silksong is coming to the Switch and that might be a perfect opportunity to have Hollow Knight in Smash. However, I still think he isn't likely to get in, mostly because of what happened to Shovel Knight and Shantae in this game. He also faces stiff competition from other indie games like Cave Story and Undertale, the former due to seniority and the latter due to popularity.

Want: 0%
I haven't played a Hollow Knight game so I have no real attachment to the character. As for him in Smash, I pretty much would like to see other more popular indies coming first before I can consider Hollow Knight. But even then, there are a lot of third-party characters that I want in first before an indie character so there's that.

Maxwell

Chance: 5%
Scribblenauts was such a big series back when it was first released in Nintendo DS. And since then, it spawned several sequels, most notably Unlimted and Unmasked. However, things kinda go down with Scribblenauts lately, especially since 5th Cell stopped making anymore Scribblenaut games. And because of that, I don't think we'll see Maxwell in Smash despite having most of his games being released on Nintendo consoles. They still have to compete with other third-party characters and since we only have 2 slots left, the competition is really fierce right now.

Want: 80%
I only have played Scribblenauts Unmasked, the one that has DC characters in it, and I'm already loving Maxwell. The fact that he can basically summon anything from objects to even Cthulhu is already cool enough in my book. He can provide a rather unique moveset in Smash that involves using his notebook to summon things out of thin air. All in all, I wouldn't mind seeing him in Smash, though only because I'm interested in his ability.

Prediction:
Heavy - 5.68%

Nominations:
Jin Kazama x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Maxwell

Chance: 0%
Scribblenauts isn't as big as it used to be. It's also apparently owned by Warner Bros., who also own the rights to Mortal Kombat, so he has competition. Plus, his notebook seems like it would be hard to implement into something like Smash.
Want: 20%
I've played Scribblenauts, and I enjoyed it. However, I don't know if Maxwell would be easy to play as, with his unique mechanics. Still, some acknowledgement at least would be nice.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x10 (hey GoodGrief741 do you mind lending me at least two if those noms, just so it could get to 50? I'm trying to save as much as I can from the purge).

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Hollow knight

Chance: 5%
I personally don't think that indie game representation will happen right now. I still gave him 5% because if we do have a indie rep, it will probably be him, because of revelancy (his franchise is getting a game later this year)

Want: 1%
I have not play Hollow knight and I don't plan to because I'm not a fan of these type of games. That being said, I would like to see how a Hollow knight stage would look in Smash bros.

Maxwell

Chance: 5%
Scribblenauts was very popular on the DS, but most of the recent entries were not very popular. The last one, Scibblenauts showdown on the switch really have low sales. At this point, I doubt that the franchise will go better in the future.

Want: 10%
I think Maxwell could have a very good moveset and like Hollow knight, a Scribblenauts stage could bring a unique art styles in Smash bros. That being said, he really lacks personnality that will make him shine alongside the other fighters.

Nomination:
Adeleine x5

 

[Ornl]

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x10 (hey GoodGrief741 do you mind lending me at least two if those noms, just so it could get to 50? I'm trying to save as much as I can from the purge).

Goodgrief has already given +12 to Farmer. Farmer is already saved

 

[GoodGrief741]

Question: are we only predicting Heavy today?

I'll post my ratings later.

Yep.

Maxwell

Chance: 0%
Scribblenauts isn't as big as it used to be. It's also apparently owned by Warner Bros., who also own the rights to Mortal Kombat, so he has competition. Plus, his notebook seems like it would be hard to implement into something like Smash.
Want: 20%
I've played Scribblenauts, and I enjoyed it. However, I don't know if Maxwell would be easy to play as, with his unique mechanics. Still, some acknowledgement at least would be nice.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x10 (hey GoodGrief741 do you mind lending me at least two if those noms, just so it could get to 50? I'm trying to save as much as I can from the purge).

Sure! Was already doing so.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Quick question, how many "Days" are usually between each noms purge?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Quick question, how many "Days" are usually between each noms purge?

There isn't any fixed interval between purges, TCT decides when they happen - usually when the noms list gets very bloated.

For reference, this would be the first purge that we do in the DLC season.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Maxwell:

Chance: 0.5%
If he were first party I could see it happening, but he's just nowhere near the popularity or level of recognizability to get in as a 3rd party guest. His games were decently popular, but that's about it. Not to mention the utter nightmare of trying to get his gimmick into a Smash moveset.

Want: Abstain.
It really would depend on his moveset for me. I can't think of anything for him that isn't either boring or way too complicated, so I'm not going to rate him for want.

Hollow Knight:

Chance: 0.1%
Let's be real here. If we got an indie rep, it would not be Hollow Knight. There's about 20 indie reps that are more popular and highly requested than him, and the general public probably has no clue who this guy is. Unless Sakurai turned out to be a ridiculously large Hollow Knight fanboy, he's not getting in.

Want: 9%
I haven't played the game, but he could definitely have some cool moveset potential from what I've seen. I just have no real attachment to him whatsoever. I wouldn't be mad if he got in, though.

Noms: Grookey's final evo x 10

Help me get this guy over 50, please....

 

[Neosonic97]

I was out for a day, what'd I miss?

Starites ain't here.

Chance: oof

Maybe if it were back when Scribblenauts was popular, Maxwell may have been an actual contender, but it's long since fizzled out. Unless Scribblenauts does something to cause a huge resurgence, I don't see it.

Want: 10%

He'd be cool I guess? I'd much rather it be someone else though.

If this guy were a Pokemon, he'd undoubtedly be Bug-type.

Chance: 15%
Amongst the Indies whose chances aren't dead in the water, Hollow Knight doesn't quite stack up to the two remaining Indies who actually have a large Legacy (Those being Quote and Reimu). Hollow Knight is apparently a good game, but the issue is that a lot of Indie reps, including the knight, just go overshadowed due to the popularity of Undertale.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really know much about Hollow Knight as a whole, and right now my attention regarding Indies is mostly turned towards Cave Story and Touhou Project.

Noms: Reimu Hakurei Rerate x5

 

[Deleted member]

Maxwell

Chance: 1%

It honestly seems like Warner Bros is the reason Scribblenauts has a very small chance of being in the Fighter Pass. While they do publish their own games unlike Disney and own the Detective Pikachu movie, I find it hard to believe it would be easy for Sakurai to work with them on a character not only because of WB being an overseas company but because of how they'd want to influence their character's inclusion to Smash. Now, having influence in DLC isn't always a bad thing, but considering MK11's current Kombat Pack lineup has Terminator being released a few weeks before Dark Fate releases and Ed Boon's comment on news for MK11 DLC, it's incredibly likely WB wouldn't consider putting Maxwell in Smash even if Nintendo asked and would probably want to include a character from a franchise with a recent game that's being worked on (and the only other franchise I could think of is Mortal Kombat but it's very unlikely since MK11 isn't released in Japan).

Want: 18%

On paper, Maxwell looks like he'd have the most creative moveset out of the characters I've rated fairly low to. However, I find him very meh for a DLC pick and would be more suitable as a fighter in the base roster or even as an AT. There's nothing wrong with Scribblenauts, but Maxwell possibly being 4th or 5th in the Fighter Pass would give me a very lukewarm reaction as if he's just there.
----------------------
The Knight

Chance: 17%

Awhile ago, I thought Hollow Knight would be a rather underrated pick for the Fighter Pass since the Switch has a larger spotlight for Indie Games than previous Nintendo consoles. I still think he has a solid shot for the Fighter Pass, but I also have to remember there's a lot of other indie games on the Switch that could end up getting the Smash spotlight over Hollow Knight. With such competition in the Indie scene for Smash (if there is 1), the Knight's chances are still fairly low, but he seems a bit likelier than a good chunk of Indie characters since Hollow Knight looks easier to implement in Smash as the game is a sidescrolling Metroidvania.

Want: 60%

There's a couple of other Indie game characters that I'd like to see in Smash before the Knight, but I would be completely fine seeing him in Smash. Yes it's a game I've never played before, but it's visually stunning enough to get me behind Hollow Knight. I don't got anything else to add.
----------------------
Noms: Zhao Yun x15

 

[3BitSaurus]

Maxwell
Chance: 1%
I'm going to echo what others have said, simply because it's hard to bring up anything new considering how little I know about his series: if Scribblenauts was first-party, he would probably happen at some point, but as of now, Maxwell has no fan demand, little general popularity and his franchise is technically not very active. The potential is definitely there, it's just... not really likely.

Want: Abstain. I do think his moveset is a potential nightmare, but I feel like I have way too little Scribblenauts experience to judge.

The Knight
Chance: 5%
Great game, and good moveset and content potential (especially music, holy ****), but the Knight still has to compete with other indie franchises (mainly Cave Story and Undertale). And with Shovel Knight and Shantae, two bigger indies with more fan demand, getting the AT/Spirit treatment... yeah, his chances don't look so good.

Even then, outside of indies, there are still the juggernauts from Level-5, Tecmo, SNK, Bethesda and especially Namco and Capcom. That alone pretty much explains the low ratings I'm giving him.

To be honest, the Knight's best chance in a brawler was in Rivals of Aether imo, but that boat sailed a long time ago, unfortunately.

Want: 50%
Honestly, with SK and Shantae basically deconfirmed, the Knight would be my go-to choice for an indie rep (with Reimu being a possible exception because of how interesting I think her mechanics could be). Though still not among my "top 10" most wanted third-parties (which is why I'm giving it 50 and not higher).

Hollow Knight is a game that means a lot to me as an indie. It helped me get through a really rough year, exemplifies several good practices of game development I want to take to my own career and even inspired my graduation project. I'm waiting very patiently for Silksong and more Hornet goodness.

Seriously, people, play Hollow Knight. It's worth every penny.

Predictions
Heavy: 21.2%

Nominations (5 daily, 5 extra for today + 5 I still had? Is that how it works?)
Kyo Kusanagi x 15

 

[DanganZilla5]

Hollow Knight

Chance 10%

As low as his chances are, I think it could happen. He is decently popular and is one of the most highly acclaimed indie games within the past couples years (at least from what I've seen). The game did fairly well on the Switch and The Knight could be a promotional pick for Silksong. The problem is he has high competition from Cave Story and Undertale and with only two slots in the pass left, I don't see the chances of an indie character being very high, especially with Shantae and Shovel Knight being rejected from the base roster.

Want: 30%

I would be interested in a Hollow Knight stage with the game's aesthetics and I'm curious how his moveset would work, but I've never played Hollow Knight so I don't have any attachment to the character.


Maxwell

Chance: 15%

The Scribblenauts series started out on the DS and there were multiple sequels on Nintendo platforms as well, making him a legacy character and a representative for the DS era which I believe only has Lucario. Maxwell himself fits the aesthetic of Smash and the fact that he can create pretty much anything would make him a very flexible and fun character for the developers to create and would make for a creative-as-all-heck moveset. The problem is, is he profitable enough? To my knowledge the Scribblenauts series has been dormant and low-key for several years now and I've never seen any substantial support for him from the fans. He has a dedicated fanbase, sure, but so does many other franchises. Most likely, he will be passed on for someone more people will know.

Want: 70%

I really enjoyed Scribblenauts Unlimited and having a character with near unlimited moveset potential be put in the hands of someone as creative as Sakurai? Sign me up.

 

[Jomosensual]

Maxwell

Chance 10 - Given how the DLC has all been highly requested or extremely popular characters getting into the game, I can't see Maxwell getting in. That being said, I don't exactly have any sales numbers or anything in front of me at the moment so I could be wrong, but I don't see him fitting in with the likes of Joker, Banjo, and the Heroes from Dragon Quest. Also, being an indie game doesn't do him favors, even if all of Scribblenauts has been on Nintendo.

Want - 100. Love this game series so much in my middle school years or so. Haven't played in a while but Maxwell would have such a great moveset. You could take the Hero RNG stuff and take it to an even more extreme level to work in the millions of possibilities for his moveset. I would be very excited over Maxwell in smash


Hollow Knight

Chance 10 - We're not getting a indie rep in this fighter pass. That I am extremely sure about. However, if we get an indie rep at all I think the Hollow Knight has the best chance. Everyone else has been made a spirit or an AT, and Hollow Knight is the one with the most relevance right now. Hitting top 5(maybe higher? I'm not sure) in the eshop is something to note. There's also a new game in development at the moment. However, HK is still an indie game which hurts a lot. Yes, I know fan rules get broken a lot and aren't anything official, but until that seal gets broken I feel like it's something we can still count on. HK is also likely still too new. The knight likely wasn't even a thing when the base roster was decided and we have no real idea as to when the DLC was picked. Hollow Knight was released in February 2017. Was there enough time for the game to get popular enough before the DLC locked? I really don't think so.

Want 100
Been playing the game a lot the last few months. Have really enjoyed it. I think there's a easy but fun moveset here that can crafted together from the game. Probably in my top 3 most wanted characters still


Noms
Ellie x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Maxwell

Chance: 1%

It honestly seems like Warner Bros is the reason Scribblenauts has a very small chance of being in the Fighter Pass. While they do publish their own games unlike Disney and own the Detective Pikachu movie, I find it hard to believe it would be easy for Sakurai to work with them on a character not only because of WB being an overseas company but because of how they'd want to influence their character's inclusion to Smash. Now, having influence in DLC isn't always a bad thing, but considering MK11's current Kombat Pack lineup has Terminator being released a few weeks before Dark Fate releases and Ed Boon's comment on news for MK11 DLC, it's incredibly likely WB wouldn't consider putting Maxwell in Smash even if Nintendo asked and would probably want to include a character from a franchise with a recent game that's being worked on (and the only other franchise I could think of is Mortal Kombat but it's very unlikely since MK11 isn't released in Japan).

Want: 18%

On paper, Maxwell looks like he'd have the most creative moveset out of the characters I've rated fairly low to. However, I find him very meh for a DLC pick and would be more suitable as a fighter in the base roster or even as an AT. There's nothing wrong with Scribblenauts, but Maxwell possibly being 4th or 5th in the Fighter Pass would give me a very lukewarm reaction as if he's just there.
----------------------
The Knight

Chance: 17%

Awhile ago, I thought Hollow Knight would be a rather underrated pick for the Fighter Pass since the Switch has a larger spotlight for Indie Games than previous Nintendo consoles. I still think he has a solid shot for the Fighter Pass, but I also have to remember there's a lot of other indie games on the Switch that could end up getting the Smash spotlight over Hollow Knight. With such competition in the Indie scene for Smash (if there is 1), the Knight's chances are still fairly low, but he seems a bit likelier than a good chunk of Indie characters since Hollow Knight looks easier to implement in Smash as the game is a sidescrolling Metroidvania.

Want: 60%

There's a couple of other Indie game characters that I'd like to see in Smash before the Knight, but I would be completely fine seeing him in Smash. Yes it's a game I've never played before, but it's visually stunning enough to get me behind Hollow Knight. I don't got anything else to add.
----------------------
Noms: Zhao Yun x15

I'm sorry, what does Terminator being in MK11 have to do with anything? I don't see the connection.

Maxwell
Chance: 1%
I'm going to echo what others have said, simply because it's hard to bring up anything new considering how little I know about his series: if Scribblenauts was first-party, he would probably happen at some point, but as of now, Maxwell has no fan demand, little general popularity and his franchise is technically not very active. The potential is definitely there, it's just... not really likely.

Want: Abstain. I do think his moveset is a potential nightmare, but I feel like I have way too little Scribblenauts experience to judge.

The Knight
Chance: 5%
Great game, and good moveset and content potential (especially music, holy ****), but the Knight still has to compete with other indie franchises (mainly Cave Story and Undertale). And with Shovel Knight and Shantae, two bigger indies with more fan demand, getting the AT/Spirit treatment... yeah, his chances don't look so good.

Even then, outside of indies, there are still the juggernauts from Level-5, Tecmo, SNK, Bethesda and especially Namco and Capcom. That alone pretty much explains the low ratings I'm giving him.

To be honest, the Knight's best chance in a brawler was in Rivals of Aether imo, but that boat sailed a long time ago, unfortunately.

Want: 50%
Honestly, with SK and Shantae basically deconfirmed, the Knight would be my go-to choice for an indie rep (with Reimu being a possible exception because of how interesting I think her mechanics could be). Though still not among my "top 10" most wanted third-parties (which is why I'm giving it 50 and not higher).

Hollow Knight is a game that means a lot to me as an indie. It helped me get through a really rough year, exemplifies several good practices of game development I want to take to my own career and even inspired my graduation project. I'm waiting very patiently for Silksong and more Hornet goodness.

Seriously, people, play Hollow Knight. It's worth every penny.

Predictions
Heavy: 21.2%

Nominations (5 daily, 10 extra for today + 5 I still had? Is that how it works?)
Kyo Kusanagi x 20

Today's 10 total noms, not 10 extra.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Today's 10 total noms, not 10 extra.

Okay. I'll edit my post accordingly, but for the record, Kyo Kusanagi x 15 then.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm sorry, what does Terminator being in MK11 have to do with anything? I don't see the connection.

Okay I was typing down about how Terminator probably wasn't expected to out so soon when he and Joker weren't initally revealed alongside Spawn and friends and how WB may have told NRS to get him out before the movie releases as a way to say WB would want to promote games they have that are either being supported currently or coming out soon in Smash. However, I forgot that the next Terminator movie wasn't from WB but Fox and Paramount. My mistake; ignore what I said about Terminator and WB on that part because Fox and Paramount probably had more to do with that than they did. My rating on Maxwell still hasn't changed though since I still find him very unlikely for the Fighter Pass.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Spawn and friends

Just so everyone knows, this is precisely how I intend to refer to this Kombat Pack from now on. Thanks, Velveeta!

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Maxwell

Chance: 1%
He doesn't seem very likely. Lacking a vocal fan demand doesn't help since that would be the only thing that could really push an out-there pick like this. I'd be more surprised if he was on Sakurai/Nintendo's radar than not.

Want: 100%
He's the kind of character that has an endless amount of things he can do. I can see him being Hocus Pocus: The character where he can just create sorts of wacky things that disrupt his foes. He can also slap on different status affects on his targets as well with the use of adjectives. He'd be pretty crazy which would be pretty fun.

-----

Hollow Knight

Chance: 1%
Another character really not on anyone's radar as far as we know. It's a respectable indie game, but I don't see it making enough of a splash to catch Sakurai's interest.

Want: 0%
Another game I have no connection with. The Knight's abilities don't exactly stand out that much either.

 

[ProfPeanut]

I Thought Her Name Was "Metroid"

Chance: 15%
While cut-off dates no longer really matter, Hollow Knight's arguably too small for Smash to want to pick up. Don't get me wrong, it's an absolute picturesque example of what indies are good for: reigniting unexplored genres and themes that other game companies aren't making time for. Without Hollow Knight, we wouldn't know what peak Metroidvania can be in this day and age, or how much you can do with fantasy post-apocalyptic insects.

Still, indies aren't judged against other indies alone - they've got to measure up against all the other great triple-A games that Smash can choose from. The Knight's just behind the frontrunners in that regard, and it's unlikely he'll ever get ahead even if Silksong turns out to be an even bigger hit. There's just so many bigger and older characters he'd have to compete with, even from the other indie hopefuls alone.

Want: 40%
The Knight would fit in pretty snugly in any crossover platform fighter, wouldn't he? Ah well, at least Rivals of Aether has something for all the hopeful indies now.


Nominations
Kratos x15

 

[Ornl]

Maxwell & Hollow Knight
Chance: 0% - Want: abstain
I don't see why Nintendo would choose these Western characters. I don't see what would be the reason for them to become Ultimate Fighters. The fact that Scribblenauts is an original concept doesn't mean that Maxwell must be in Smash Bros. And I'm sure Hollow Knight can't be a better choice than Rayman/Shantae/Shovel Knight.
Nominations: Concept: Another western character x10.

 

[Nquoid]

It's honestly getting to the point where I'm contemplating offering to buy copies of Hollow Knight for the people in this thread because these want scores are too darn low.

 

[chocolatejr9]

It's honestly getting to the point where I'm contemplating offering to buy copies of Hollow Knight for the people in this thread because these scores want scores are too darn low.

I can't. I suck at Metroidvanias.

 

[3BitSaurus]

It's honestly getting to the point where I'm contemplating offering to buy copies of Hollow Knight for the people in this thread because these scores want scores are too darn low.

To be fair, loving a game to death doesn't necessarily mean having a character from that game in Smash is a top priority for you. And this is coming from someone who really wanted the Knight in Rivals of Aether.

In fact, this is part of why I'm dreading to write a post for Undertale characters...

 

[Nquoid]

To be fair, loving a game to death doesn't necessarily mean having a character from that game in Smash is a top priority for you. And this is coming from someone who really wanted the Knight in Rivals of Aether.

In fact, this is part of why I'm dreading to write a post for Undertale characters...

Oh I completely agree. I think (?) I said Undertale is one of my favourite games of the decade, but I just don't think what I love about it would fit into Smash. But if we're talking indies, Hollow Knight is probably my favourite of all the ones that could conceivably make it into the game.

It's more because of the amount of "I've not played it" comments.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The Knight:

Chance: 0% - Ain't happening, Shovel Knight was our only semi-realistic chance at an indie character, and on top of that I'd also say that Shantae and an Undertale character are ahead of The Knight in terms of likelihood, and those are by themselves incredibly unlikely as well. Unfortunate, but the reality.

Want: 85% - Hollow Knight is just an absolutely brilliant game, it's definitely my favorite indie title, so I'd love to see it in Smash in any form. While The Knight himself isn't exactly a very defined character, he still has a lot of cool abilities, and he's a ton of fun to play in Hollow Knight itself, which for platforming characters usually translates pretty well into Smash. There are still other characters I'd like to see more, maybe even Hornet from the same game, but it'd still be wonderful.

Abstain on Maxwell.

 

[FancySmash]

Hollowed out Knight

Chance: 1%
I stand by believing that after Shovel Knight's assist trophy reveal and Shantae's spirit reveal, indie titles won't be seeing a playable character this round of Smash. Even if we were to see one, Hollow Knight is a bit recent to be considered. A longer running series like Cave Story would most likely have an easier chance making the roster.

Want: 0%
I'm always more the person who'd rather see a series prove itself before seeing it in Smash. No doubt the game is popular, but it doesn't quite have the legacy yet that some of it's competitors have. In due time, I could see my want changing.

Walking dictionary

Chance: 1%
I don't believe Scribblenauts has quite the popularity for getting into Smash. I will admit it's got good history of being on Nintendo consoles, but the demand has never seemed all that high to me.

Want: 50%
I do like Scribblenauts, but the series itself doesn't easily lend to a moveset. It's a series about creating an object to help solve the puzzle at hand. I suppose each of his specials could be summoning a random object, but the overall flow of a moveset like this seems a little difficult to pull off.

Prediction: Heavy
I don't want to say that... it's not possible. 24.06%

Nominations: Captain Rainbow x10

 

[Calamitas]

Bugger

Chance: 5%
Hollow Knight certainly is an indie game. One that has had things like "success" and "acclaim". But I'm gonna be honest here, it's not the kind of game that I see all over the place as is the case with Shantae and Shovel Knight, who managed to become a Spirit and Assist Trophy, respectively. The only reason I'm giving the 5% is because of the old "nothing (within certain constraints) is impossible now" argument that's going around for character choices.

Want: 15%
Never played Hollow Knight. The character does have an interesting design, but I don't really hear anything about great moveset potential with regards to them.

The Pen is mighter than the Anime Swordfighter

Chance: 10%
I'm really not that knowledgable on Scribblenauts, but I think it has had several releases on Nintendo platforms? At least basis to see some connection there. Still nothing that'd make the character seem like a big inclusion on the scale of Hero, though.

Want: 20%
Eh, I guess there could be a lot of creativity involved with that kind of moveset? Though on the other hand, Sakurai and his team might as well feel the need to go absolutely overboard like they did with Hero, and cram in way to many things and make them RNG-based again. I'll admit that this might partly be because DQ is an RPG series, but still.

Predicting Heavy to land around. . . let's say 19.86%.

Nominating Amaterasu x10.

 

[Ridrool64]

Diary of the least wimpy kid ever

Chance: Yeah, he isn't very likely at all. 10%, Maxwell made an impact a long time ago, but something tells me Warner Bros. aren't the most likely company to get a character since I'm not even sure they're known half as well for their games as... Looney Tunes. And, besides that, there's the issue that it's been a long while since Scribblenauts made much of an impact.

Want: 45%, Super Scribblenauts is a fantastic title and I reccomend anybody with a 3/DS should get it. But, he has too much moveset potential, as I've said before, and where to begin on what his playstyle should be, what his attacks should be, there's too much of it to not feel like a shallow representation of Scribblenauts.

Hollow Knight, an indie character like Celeste, Undertale and Cave Story from Celeste, Undertale and Cave Story

Chance: 20%. I don't think indie characters compete with each other at all, so the fact that Undertale getting a character has a sizeable chance is of no consequence to the Knight. Still, it doesn't seem like the Knight will make it, since it's not as prominent as the big 3 indies and even other titles like A Hat in Time seem much more popular than it, when it's somewhat... niche?

Want: Never played Hollow Knight, and I doubt I will given that I've got too many things to try out already. But just in case, until I have a good feeling on what HK would feel like, Abstain.

More Bosses x 10. Heavy will probably see something like 16.29%.

 

[YoshiandToad]

All he wrote
Chance: 2%
Maxwell's games are generally pretty good, but Scribblenauts isn't exactly a powerhouse third party, and I have a hard time believing he'd be the second or third western Third Party that Sakurai would go for. Did Scribblenauts stand out in Japan? I honestly have no idea, but Konami helping publish it probably gives Maxwell a small chance at least.

Want: 20%
I liked Scribblenauts for the short time I played it, and I'm sure Maxwell would have a fantastic moveset, but I honestly think he'd be a better assist trophy because of the way his abilities work. There's at least a dozen third parties I can think of that I'd consider 'bigger' than Maxwell even if he's one of the more unique.

Hollow, is it me you're looking for?
Chance: 2%
Like Maxwell, Hollow Knight suffers IMO from being a smaller indie name than his fellow knight Shovel, the super success that is Steve, the all encompassing hit of Undertale or the vocal fanbase of Shantae...if she even counts as indie. He's definitely one of the best indie title protagonists out there, but...I just can't see us getting any indies honestly.

Want: 0%
Nothing against Hollow Knight, again it's a great game, but not only do I think we're unlikely to get any indies, I have no desire to have any indies in Smash unless they're insanely successful like Minecraft.

Prediction:
Heavy: 12%. TF2 is insanely popular still even 12 years on from it's initial release and Valve is very much a big name in video games.

Nomination:
Lara Croft X 5

 

[Sid-cada]

The Knight

Chance - 1% - The Metroidvania of [insert time frame here] certainly has earned much acclaim and love. While I'm not certain how long it's legacy will last, as of now it certainly has made an impact, especially with the regular support the game has had over time. With Game 2 on the way with it being a PC and Switch exclusive, Hollow Knight does seem to be on it's way to acclaim. However, I do think it is far too soon, especially with other indie completion on it's way.

Want - 60% - I still need to get to play this game - I just haven't had the time. While I do think he's a reasonable pick, I do think that there are indies who deserve to get in first.


Maxwell

Chance - 0.05% - Scribblenauts was an interesting game, but lacked momentum. Considering that they are competing in the same company as Mortal Kombat, I think that is who they would go for first.

Want - 40% - Maxwell is the perfect idea of a third party assist trophy, in my opinion. Do a post 217 and use a time machine to summon dinosaurs to fight robot zombies, and I think you encapsulate everything that you can in game. As a character, though, he doesn't interest me as much.


Predictions

The Heavy - 3.24% - I think they would need to get in Nintendo first...


Nominations

Harvest Moon Farmer X10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining x 10 Protoman

Since the fixed schedule is now done, I will be listing some big revisions coming soon.

The front page will be getting a gradual rework. This will mean a complete score and date archive. Tentative date is around September 30th. That is not all that will be in the front page. Starting around then, we will have graphics for the top ten of chance and want soon as well. I also am in talks with an artist friend to design a thread banner for the thread. This will make the top ten much more visible.

Secondly, we have been listening to the complains. Starting the next two weeks of in game time, days will be ~1-2 days in length only. I will say I personally like longer days in order to enable more discussion, and at points (such as for Crash's day) I did not want to create an arbitrary time limit to the day. However, I know popular opinion wants more active days. While doing this, we will check with user feedback in order to see the best path going forward for days.

Thirdly, we will also be sneaking in random concepts onto the schedule as a bonus. Essentially we will pull together a few cool ideas (not on the noms list to avoid favoritism) and put them up sometime in the week for people to vote on, and the most popular will be put on the last day of the week as a double day. This is experimental and may not be permanent, but i do want to maximize our time. Feedback on this after it is put in action would be very nice.

Finally, we are instituting for the first time in this RTC an ignore list for posts. This will mean that the posts by these users posts will be ignored by the RTC staff and their scores and noms will not be counted in the final averages.

This list will be very conservative. A user will not be on here because I or anyone else on the RTC team disagrees with them. The only reason a user will be on this list is for repeated extensive violation of the thread rules. For the purposes of this list, the main rules that would fall under this category would be Rule 2, 4 , and 5 (although countervoting is extremely rare and I only remember one circumstance). In order for someone to enter the ignore list, the RTC team will review their posts, see if they violate the rules extensively, and then vote. Furthermore, for a user to get on this list, there must be a complete consensus on the RTC team to put them on the ignore list. To get off the ignore list, the RTC team must agree by a supermajority to remove them. If one is put on the ignore list, they are welcome to discuss this with any member of the RTC team (The current RTC team is myself, GoodGrief741 , Sari , and UtopianPoyzin ) and it will be reevaluated.

As of now, there are only two users that are on the ignore list.

Vrbtm: Said user has repeatedly derailed the thread with flaming comments. Has been banned multiple times via warnings partially due to flaming and derailing posts, including in RTC. As such due to frequent and extensive violation of Rule 2, they are now on the ignore list.

Ornl: Now this one is a bit more complicated. Let me first state that this is not due to any personal distaste of any RTC team members in their posts. This is due to an extreme repeated violation of Rule 2. Ornl has repeatedly caused flame wars and thread derailment due to their posts. Many users (including myself) have attempted to ensure Ornl does not cause this any more in the future. Ornl's responses to these attempts have not lead to any change. Instead of responding to any constructive criticism or engaging in debate, Ornl chooses to point out any minor logical fallacies (in itself a logical fallacy) and derail the thread further, limiting any engaging debate.

This was not an immediate unanimous decision. While talks of an ignore list did occur in July, Ornl was not a unanimous choice for said ignore list for the longest time. However, around the middle of August, we decided some action needed to occur. About two weeks ago, I approach Ornl hoping to find a suitable path forward. Out of respect for the user's privacy, I will not be releasing them unless they wish me to or they choose to release them themselves. Ultimately, it was clear that there would be no attempt to resolve things going forward in a constructive manner find a suitable path forward. After reviewing this discussion, the RTC team came to the unanimous decision to place Ornl on the ignore list.

Starting 8/26/19, the ignore list will be put into effect. I will edit the OP on this in the future.

Anywho, today we have the Heavy from Team Fortress 2, one of my personal favorite games of all time, expect a big post on that. Tomorrow we have Chrono, from the RPG classic Chrono Trigger. Please Rate Heavy and Predict Chrono.

 

[Sari]

♪ Team Fortress 2 Music ♪

Here are some songs to get into the TF2 mood:

Spoiler

I'll post my ratings later.

 

[Jomosensual]

Heavy

Going to have to use my first abstain in a while here. Don't know anywhere near enough about TF2 to be able to figure out how likely this character is and likely wont have time to do some deep digging. Using no research at all I feel like Heavy isnt highly likely. The feeling I've always gotten from it was that it's pretty similar to Overwatch but less popular.

Chrono Prediction: 1.32 percent

Noms: Ellie x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Heavy

Going to have to use my first abstain in a while here. Don't know anywhere near enough about TF2 to be able to figure out how likely this character is and likely wont have time to do some deep digging. Using no research at all I feel like Heavy isnt highly likely. The feeling I've always gotten from it was that it's pretty similar to Overwatch but less popular.

Chrono Prediction: 1.32 percent

Noms: Ellie x5

Not gonna shill too hard but TF2 is free to play on steam and is super easy to run, if you have time I would give it a shot.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Heavy Weapons Guy

Chance: 5% - When one thinks of TF2, whether it be from love for the game or silly meme SFM videos, the Heavy is the first face that comes to mind. There were rumors of Nintendo asking Valve to develop a Half-Life strategy game for the Switch but as of now they are just rumors. Still, as it stands for confirmed information, Nintendo doesn't have any kind of relationship with Valve and none of their games are on Nintendo systems so for now I just cannot see this happening. And while he is super iconic for PC gamers he doesn't have much influence outside of that, and being both an FPS character and a PC character that means likely little to no exposure in Japan. Still, if Valve makes any kind of deal with Nintendo or at least gets a port then his chances will go up.

Want: 0% - I've never been a fan of Valve or their games, and I found the memes pretty irritating back in the day. Plus Valve has no Nintendo representation so I'd rather see a character with Nintendo presence get in instead. Still, his cartoony aesthetic does help him fit better into Smash so I will give him that, and I know a lot of people have nostalgia for him since TF2 is quite an old game at this point.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Chrono - 10.68%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Vera and company

Chance: 1%
When I first heard about the idea of Heavy in Smash, I was very confused. No appearances on Nintendo hardware. A very bloody shooter, plus the big ass minigun, kind of seemed to spell not great chances to me. Not a 1%, but not too far either. However, something suddenly clicked in my head:

Valve made Half-Life.

Look, Team Fortress created a genre, was the king for a long while there, and it's now alive and kicking with Overwatch. It's definitely got its place in gaming history and many of its characters are icons (to the point where one would be incredibly likely if not for the guns + no Nintendo appearance factors). But Half-Life is usually considered one of the pinnacles of gaming, a seminal shooter that defined the genre alongside GoldenEye up until Halo and Call of Duty shook things up. Gordon Freeman is more iconic too, and is more of Valve's mascots. And his crowbar and gravity gun, plus the sci-fi setting feels more realizable in Smash than TF2's military setting and 'ludicrous gibs' humor. Just like Spyro and Crash, they both have great merits, but one feels like the definitive pick compared to the other.

Want: 15%
Man, did I play TF2 a lot as a kid. But somehow, TF2 doesn't really draw me as a Smash candidate. Maybe it's the very PC-ness of it (even though it did come to consoles) or the humor of it being very much contrary to Nintendo. I'd take it, but I'd like Mr. Freeman more. Hell, Heavy was never my favorite TF2 character, so someone like Spy or Engineer would be better for me.

Noms: Prince of Persia x15

Crono prediction: 2.06%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Heavy
Chance: 1%:
As it stands, Valve as a company barely has a presence on Nintendo consoles, Team Fortress as a franchise has never been on a Nintendo console, it still is being played modestly, but has been overshadowed by newer online Multiplayer shooters like Fortnite and Overwatch. I unironically think Fortnite has a better chance of getting in solely based on their Nintendo presence. He is probably the most iconic out of the 9 classes, but there isn't really anything pushing him beyond the others, any major reason to pick him over everyone else, or any major reason to pick TF2 out of all the franchises that could be picked. Even at the incredibly low chances of Valve getting a rep, I think Gordon Freeman or Chell is more likely.

Want: 0%:
I loved TF2 back in the day and have a lot of nostalgia for it, but I really don't see any reason whatsever to add this guy. I could probably think of a hundred characters at worst that I'd rather have over him. I'd probably even unironically take Fortnite or Overwatch characters before this guy, and I don't even want either of them in the game at present.

Nominations: Chun-Li x5

 

[Northadox]

Heavy
Chance: 1%
Want: 90%

Team Fortress 2 is without a doubt my most played game of all time, currently sitting at 2,000+ hours. The characters of the game are so beautifully crafted, and the in-game commentary details every single little facet of their design. Heavy is a character with a unique build, silhouette, personality and loadout in comparison to the eight other mercs, and he's somehow managed to be the icon of the game. And of course, when you're the icon of a widely popular game, people are gonna start wanting you in Smash.

Thing is though, everything is stacked against Heavy. He has no Nintendo appearance, for one. Not a single one. There's no connection between TF2 and any Nintendo console in the first place; hell, even Valve has RARELY bothered with any Nintendo console. The game he originates from is almost exclusively a Western thing as well; I doubt many in Japan have even heard of TF2. From his genre even, there are many more characters that are more relevant, more popular, and more profitable (Doomguy seems to be the headlining one, although Tracer has unfortunately popped up as of recent...). Gary Schwartz, while a great voice actor, is aging and has lost his original impression of the character, so even if Heavy was in, he wouldn't sound great (or he'd sound exactly the same as TF2, which means there'll be no opportunity for Smash-flavored unique dialogue). And while he may be the game's de-facto mascot, he's certainly no company mascot - that'd probably go to one Mr. Freeman. So why do I give him that 1%? Because anything originating from video games is possible. It's that belief of that that made Rool, Ridley, and Banjo a reality.

But his minuscule chances of getting in don't stop me from wishing for it. I'd love for the world and personality of TF2 to get a shout-out in Smash, and I'd adore if Heavy was the one to bring it with him. Because I love the game so so much, that's why Heavy has a 90% want for me. However, it's only a 90% because...I'd actually prefer a different class. Heavy doesn't strike me as the acrobatic type, so an Up Special would be hard to come up with (unless you'd want to use the Mannpower grappling hook, but seriously?) and Heavy has a rather narrow weapon pool for his class. I think the everyman jack-of-all-trades apprentice of Sun Tzu Soldier would fit better, especially with his huge variety of weapons to use and the ability to rocket jump, which could make for a really interesting gimmick. Also, something that'd REALLY be unique...Engineer. Imagine building Teleporters and using them to spike someone mid-knockback. Overall though, I certainly wouldn't be disappointed if Heavy were to get in; hell, I'd be elated. But unfortunately, I really don't think it's gonna happen this time around.

Nominate: Tetris Character (Tetris/Tetriminos/Tetrimino) x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain on Heavy
Nominations: Specter Knight x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

So, the Purge happened, meaning every nominee under 50 noms is gone. Here's a list of those:

Spoiler: Under 50

[Rerate] Dovahkiin x45
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Cooking Mama x30
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x28
Gex x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x25
Marx (Kirby) x21
King Boo x21
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x20
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x20
Black Shadow x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Fortnite character x15
Concept: Another joke character x13
Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party x13
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
[Rerate] Tetromino x10
Concept: Idolm@ster rep x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Gordon Freeman x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
Rash x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Urbosa x5
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Lizalfos x4
Concept: No More DLC x3
Concept: More Fighter Passes x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Spoiler: Nominations post-The Knight/Maxwell pre-Heavy

Specter Knight x140
Velvet Crowe x135
Ellie (The Last of Us) x135
Gene (God Hand) x120
Adeleine (Kirby) x118
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
Terry Bogard x115

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
[Rerate] Micaiah x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Kyo Kusanagi x95
Captain Rainbow x92
9-Volt x90
Concept: Another western character x90
Frogger x85
Glover x85
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x85
Jin Kazama x85
Concept: More Bosses x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x75
Lara Croft x75
Kratos x75
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Blaze the Cat x70
Amaterasu x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Proto Man x65
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x60
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x58
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50

Specter Knight dashes past Velvet Crowe and lands in first place. Ellie ties with Velvet for second. Adeleine rolls into the top 7 and past Terry Bogard, Ninten and Rundas for that 5th place.

Farmer cuts past the 50 nom mark, saving himself from the purge. At the last minute, Reporter & Wrestler also save themselves from the purge.

DrifloonEmpire You gave Dovahkiin 15 noms, which would have saved him from the purge. However I checked the list and you don't show up as having extra noms. Did I make a mistake somewhere?