Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DLC Day 309: Shantae and Professor Layton

Troykv

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Sans:

Chance: 20%

I'm not expecting him, but we have good reasons to don't believe he would be considered a joke suggestion; namely Undertale's popularity, the fact Western Characters (and niche series for that matter) can have playable characters. Sans what it's lacking right now it's a consistent push in the Smash Community, because he's technically still seen as a joke. Frisk would be most likely though, because Hero (Aka: Luminary, Roto/Erdrick and guys) proven that Third-Party characters without a personality perse can appear in Smash Bros without being Miis; and he overall represents a lot better the feeling of Undertale.

Want: 50%

I'm fairly neutral with Sans; maybe we get something interesting from him. I hope so, he has the potential.

_____

Celica...

So... what it was chance rate I gave to Micaiah last time?...

And so, I decided to give her a 15% Chance rate... she is definitely unlikely, but she isn’t someone that can be simply ignored, the potential is here, waiting to be found.
Oh yeah right... so well... I already said that Celica it's pretty much in the same situation that Micaiah, but why you may ask.

Celica is technically an old character because of her appearance in Gaiden, and the things she got done after the remake were mostly with the franchise itself (appearing in FEW and winning CYL2), and because how Fire Emblem characters works, that is a bad thing, FE so far had only two exceptions of characters appearing out of time, that show us that is technically possible for a Older FE Character to appear (Marth and Chrom), but they need something more quite impressive in their side (like being technically the most popular FE Lord in the time of it's release in Marth's case; or having a big outcry and a character that it's actually quite easy to create in Chrom's case).

Celica (and Micaiah for that matter) don't have that special advantages (or at least not that I can't confirm), she is carried mostly for the fact she would a more distinctive design and potentially moveset from the other Fire Emblem Characters, which usually fit many traits in common other that simply the Middle/Modern Age Fantasy Look.

So yeah, same case as Micaiah, just some minor traits changed (Micaiah it's overall more unique looking and moveset-wise; but Celica still it's a more "modern" choice, like in Chrom's case).

Chance: 15%

Want: 55%

I don't have personal connection to Celica, but many of my friends like her. And I like her design and the fact she is a mage knight xD.

I wonder if even we get Edelgard/Byleth in Smash Ultimate, the Celica fans would continue to support Celica for Smash, I personally don't care how many characters we get in Smash, I'll always have a space in my heart for the possibility of Micaiah in Smash Bros <3

_____

Predictions:

BDee: 16.7%
Phoenix: 43.4%
Doom Guy: 32.5%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x10
 
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PeridotGX

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Chance - 15%. Undertale is massive, both here and in Japan. If we are to get any indie character, it will be an Undertale Rep. Sans is the most popular character in the game by far, has an easier moveset to envision, and appears in Deltarune, so there's definitely an argument to add him instead of the protagonist, Frisk.

Want: 80%. I really liked Undertale, so I'd be down with any representation for the game in Smash. Sans isn't my go-to choice, but he'd still be pretty neat.

The Toyota Celica
Chance - 5%. Celica is in an interesting position. The Good? She has a spirit, but it isn't hers alone, as she shares it with Alm. The little SoV content we have in this game is Alm-centered. The Bad? Echoes is on the way out of relavency, the pass will likely be all 3rd party, and Sakurai has said he's wary of adding more Fire Emblem Characters.

Want - 35%. I played Echoes, it was a good game and I wouldn't mind a character from it. She isn't my go-to choice for an Echoes Rep, however (that's Jedah).

Noms: X x 10
 

Sari

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Sans

Chance: 17%
Undertale was a breakout hit with a ton of Nintendo inspiration. Considering how well-known Sans and Undertale's soundtrack are, I think Undertale representation in Smash isn't that hard to imagine happening.

Want: Abstain.
Never finished Undertale so I won't comment. I don't think I'd have any strong feelings one way or the other though.

--------------

Celica

Chance: 5%
Sakurai has flat out stated that he's aware of FE fatigue in Smash, so the likelihood of us getting another one is low. Even if we were to get another FE rep, Three Houses would probably have priority. This is all without mentioning that she's a spirit and she'd also have to compete with Alm who is more of the main character in Gaiden/SoV anyway. Gets some points for being pretty popular in the FE community, but I don't think that alone will cut it.

Want: 100%
Celica is my most wanted first party who isn't in an AT position. I love both her design and character and having another FE magic user would be great.

Bandana Dee: 17.32%
Phoenix Wright: 50.64%
Doomguy: 54.86%

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10
 
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Nquoid

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Sans:
Chance: 15%
It feels like the fighters pass has bigger fish to fry than critical acclaimed independent games. Undertale is probably the top tier of indie games that could make it in, just based on cultural significance. But i doubt it'll be dlc or before exhausts their 1st party a bit more.

Want: 40%
Undertale was one of my favourite games of the year it came out. The entire cast is so charismatic and unique, but it also feels like a game where it'd be hard to translate what exactly made it special into Smash. Plus I'm always going to prioritise characters with more Nintendo history.

Celica:
Chance: 5%
Nintendo are not going to use the DLC to promote Fire Emblem Gaiden or its remake when the Switch game is coming. Whilst it would have been nice to have more diversity in the Fire Emblem roster, that time has passed us by.

Want: 5%
Personally I'd rather Lyn from Fire Emblem. And then a long list of other Nintendo first party characters. Fire Emblem and Smash obviously have a lot of history, considering Smash brought it to the West and kept it alive along enough for Awakening to get made. But that expansion happened too fast and now I'd rather some unexplored franchises got their due.
 

Opossum

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Celica time.

Chance: 1%
The token Piranha Percent as per my policy. Luminary shows that she isn't an issue timing wise, but with Three Houses on the horizon, I can't see them going for her.

On that note though, while I believe Spirits disconfirm, Celica isn't disconfirmed via Spirits. After all, the spirit is Alm AND Celica, not her on her own. Add in the fact that SoV is missing other spirits and quite a few songs, and it's not like they couldn't make her DLC, it's just that someone like Edelgard would be much more likely.


Want: 100%
Hell yeah. She's my second favorite Lord and third favorite Fire Emblem character in general. She has a lot of unique spells at her disposal and can have a neat glass cannon playstyle with her recoil on her stronger moves. Also anyone saying she'd be too similar to Robin doesn't know the character.
 

Ornl

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Sans estimate was ≈4%, but this estimate didn't take into account the May 4 re-rate. He had already reached ≈29%. However, it's an opportunity to think again.

Sans
Chance
: 0% - Want : abstain
Good points
- Nintendo very promoted Undertale/Deltarune.
- Sans is in all Nintendo DREAM polls about most popular video game characters. 2sd in October 2018, 8th in March, 5th in June.
Mixed points
- Undertale has a lot of inspiration from Nintendo. But it seems that the game has more a vision's author than a Nintendo soul. Finally, the link with Nintendo is relatively low.
- Undertale is the best indie choice and could represent the Switch, but like Minecraft he will have difficulty getting the general support of Smash community (because gameplay, gamedesign, not a series, fanbase...).
Weak points
- Frisk is the true playable character. It's her technique that should be highlighted.
- Undertale isn't translated into other European languages, even on Switch. I find this unbecoming from a contemporary Smash Bros suitor.
 

BowserKing

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Sans

Chance: 20 to 25%. He may have went up higher a bit, since several competitors have been eliminated. Plus he is the most popular character in his fanbase.

Want: I could go rate 50%. Of course he would bring in devastating attacks and more fans to enjoy smash. But who knows what will happen.

Celica

Chance: 10 to 15%. She is a spirit (well two), but not by herself, making it surprising. But then again, the most likely Fire Emblem character would be from 3 houses, so that narrows it down.

Want: 50%. I know many of you don't want another Fire Emblem character, but she could be a fun character. Of course there is a few characters that would be unique for Smash.

Noms: 2 for Marx and 3 for Gooey
 

Jomosensual

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Celica

Chance 0 - Celica has gone from total long shot to no shot at all in my eyes. There is no good reason at all for Nintendo to pick her over someone from 3 houses. Plus she's a spirit and 1st party and right now both of those things look like major killers. The case is dead.

Want 10 - Wouldn't completely reject it, but I wouldn't be very excited either. Would rather get Edelgaurd or a more unique FE fighter all together


Sans
Chance 30 - I'm starting to feel way better about Sans. Undertale is huge and Sans would sell well. He's also still an indie character though, so I'm not betting on this happening but I wouldn't be shocked to see Sans in Smash at some point. This time around it's starting to seem a little unlikely though

Want 30 - Can't say I'd hate it. Leaning towards not really wanting Sans because I've never touched Undertale. I wouldn't completely reject it though and would at least like to see how he plays first should he get in

Noms
Ellie x10
 

TCT~Phantom

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Sans

35% Chance

If I was going by raw numbers, Sans probably would have made the top of the Underrated list for me. Him getting a 4% ish was honestly something that really I feel can not fly in a post Joker Post E3 world.

For starters, the general environment of the fighters pass aids Sans significantly. Now we know that the name of the game is likely third parties. Our current fighters pass being solely third party and the fact that everything in it lines up more with the third party DLC from Smash 4 in terms of distribution aids us in that belief. As such, that weakens a lot of competition that Sans faced. Spirits also look to deconfirm him which helps him

Furthermore, Banjo proves Western characters are fair game. We know that through Shantae and Shovel Knight and Rayman that Western franchises were not completely absent from Smash, but now one has a character. Another hurdle Sans has gone.

Undertale is popular around the World. It somehow became a huge hit in Japan. That shocked me. Itwas a big enough hit for Toby Fox to get a huge interview in Famitsu and Sans to rock popularity polls. Talk about a turn around.

Deltarune existing also helps Sans, as not only does he cameo in it, it proves that the Undertale franchise is not done yet.

Sans only really has two competitors for a supposed indie slot. Hollow Knight exists and has done well, but I feel it does not have the sheer impact that Undertale has had in gaming culture. The more noteworthy competition in my eyes is Reimu. Touhou is a huge indie success in Japan, and Nintendo has shown they are will be willing to to a more Japanese based character.

80% want

Ehh I know people who would be happy, but I don’t have a full moveset down. I want to get a grasp on a playstyle first ya know?

Also O Ornl that was for an Undertale Rep in general, not Sans. Please refrain from saying misleading things like that in the future.

Celica

1% chance

I mean it is three houses or bust for FE right now. I ain’t even that confident in that. She was a base game character and her window is near shut.

50% want

I like her, but Edelgard, Dmitri, Claude, and Blyeth interest me more moveset wise. It is like why would I get Chocolate Fudge Brownie Ben and Jerry’s when I can get Half Baked?

Spyro x 10
 

Sari

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Forgot to post the music of the day so I'll do that now:

Some songs for Sans:


Some songs for Celica:

 

Ornl

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Also O Ornl that was for an Undertale Rep in general, not Sans. Please refrain from saying misleading things like that in the future.
That's right, I was wrong. When I saw that Frisk only got ≈15.5, I clumsily had to attribute the Undertale rep high score to Sans. No need to ask to avoid mistakes. There is no will to do any more, but an error can always happen.
 

Neosonic97

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It's a beautiful day outside. Birds are singing, flowers are blooming. On days like this, kids like you...

should be burning in hell.

Chance: 10% at best.
I'm not convinced that Undertale would fit in Smash, least of all sans. It's not a manner of the game not being popular enough, or not being on Nintendo Consoles (Because popularity and nintendo appearances are not something Undertale lacks) or even believing that sans is a meme pick, but more that Undertale, as a universe, simply does not have characters that would mesh well for being a full-blown fighter in Smash. On top of that, in order to actually use sans in Smash, you'd have to spoil Undertale's Genocide Route, because you'd inevitably have to take sans' moves from being the final boss of that route. That would kind of go against Toby Fox's belief that Undertale should be played blind. Combined with the fact that Undertale's main draw is the ability to choose not to fight monsters, and I just don't see Undertale ever having a full-blown fighter. Even if Undertale or Deltarune WERE to get a full-blown fighter, it would most likely be Undyne over anybody else. At best I see sans as an Assist Trophy who doesn't do much unless he gets hit by an attack (at which point whoever hit him is gonna have a bad time).


Want: 20%.
Again, sans is not even remotely close to my first choice for an Undertale rep if we're getting one. Undyne fits the fighting landscape of Smash a lot better, and between both her normal and Undying forms, there's a lot more moveset potential for her than there is for mr. Lazybones. So uh... whip out that trombone and play some sad tunes because I don't see this spooky scary skeleton getting in.


Celica

Chance: 0%
The new Fighter's pass isn't going to involve Echo fighters, and if Celica is ever going to get in, it's gonna be as a Robin echo. She's not getting in. Plus she's already a Spirit, shared with Alm.


Want: 50%
She'd be fine? I don't have particularly strong feelings on her either way. She'd definitely be a Robin echo, though.


Before I do my noms though I'd like to respond to something...

Touhou really only has being the leader of a genre to its name, and it has a lot of big counterpoints.
Not seeing the 'lots of big counterpoints' here, and being the face of a genre is a huge distinction. Lest we forget that's why Ryu was chosen- Ryu's main draw is that he's literally the face of fighting games. Touhou's not only the godmother of Indie games (Predating even the most commonly cited one, Shantae, by six years), but also pretty much the face of the shoot 'em up genre nowadays. ZUN's also gone on record saying he'd be interested in working with Nintendo, so it's not like negotiating with ZUN would be very difficult. And with AoCF coming to the Switch, you can't even say she doesn't have official Nintendo appearances any more. I would like to see this list of counterpoints, though.

Ultimately, people seriously overstate the 'obstacles' that Reimu would face in getting into Smash.

In fact, with The Hero's introduction (consider the fact that Dragon Quest's audience WAS primarily japanese), one could argue that Reimu's relatively smaller presence in The West isn't even a legitimate counter point any more (yes, I am aware that Dragon Quest did have some presence in the west prior, but its presence in the West didn't even compare to what it was like in Japan) .

Noms: rerate Reimu x5
 
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GoodGrief741

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The Queen in the North

Chance: 0%
LMAO you guys are seriously overrating Sans. I don't expect everyone to give zeroes but over 10% for what is basically a meme character from an indie game is unrealistic. Sans doesn't have a moveset. As a boss? Sure. As a fighter? He's either OP or just nothing. He'd have to be a massive spoiler for Undertale, and specifically for a route of Undertale that the game itself berates people for experiencing - there's even a special dialogue that activates if the game is being recorded, to criticize people watching it. Plus he's an indie, plus there's bigger fish to fry.

Want: abstain
I love Undertale and I'm convinced it's a terrible idea to give it a playable character.

Not invited to the treehouse

Chance: 1%
A Spirit, and a non-relevant Fire Emblem character. Maybe back when Three Houses was still far away, sure, but it's coming out this month. Celica's time in the sun is up.

Want: 0%
I love Gaiden and I'm sure I'd love Echoes if I were to play it. Celica is a cool character that might be fun to had. However Fire Emblem currently needs less characters, not more. Even if they decided to add more characters I'd rather have some popular ones like Lyn or Black Knight.

Noms: Crono X5
Kyle Hyde X5

Predictions: Phoenix Wright 57.21%
Doomguy 12%
Dee 4.90% (I wish we'd left this good boy keep his 80%, he deserves it)

Neosonic97 Neosonic97 Would like to keep the back and forth going but it's off-topic.

Sans:

Chance - 5%

Ok so yea Nintendo is pushing Undertale and Deltarune a bit but considering the only indie in the game being Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy who was even more pushed by Nintendo I'm not expecting an india character to get the spotlight. Also Frisk would make more sense as an Undertale character and I still don't really see how it would work well in Smash.

Want - 0%

I haven't played Undertale but I heard it is a great game, representation through Sans however does not interest me. I think the main protagonist should come first.

Celica:

Chance - 1%

She's already in the game as a spirit (it is with Alm though if that means anything) which already makes me feel a bit shaky there but she is also a Fire Emblem character which we know get lots of backlash and I doubt they want a repeat of Corrin plus her game came out back in early 2017 so she is old news if they want a new Fire Emblem character and don't forget there is more popular characters out there. Oh yea and with the way this pass is going I'm sceptical of a Nintendo character making it in though I'm pretty sure it won't be Celica. Also I should mention we did just get a magic/sword based fighter so I doubt we're getting another.

Want - 0%

At this point if we are getting a new Fire Emblem character I think it will need to be someone really unique and Celica really does not do that for me. Also 2 magic/sword users in the same pass is something I don't really want (unless we get Isaac :p).

Nominations: Isaac Rerate x10 (Are we allowed to do Assist Trophies?)
Assist Trophies still not allowed.
 
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GoodGrief741

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Sorry to anyone who nominated Bandana Dee, Steve?, or Sans, but at least you got your day free of charge.

Nominations yesterday were all over the place, many didn't qualify. I myself didn't qualify, imagine the embarrassment.

Morrigan Aensland x145
Spyro x140
Crono x125
Heavy (Team Fortress) x121
Kyle Hyde x120
Kamek x116
Saber (Fate) x112

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Ellie (The Last of Us) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Rundas x95
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Concept: Valve rep x90
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Specter Knight x65
Terry Bogard x55
X (Mega Man) x53
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
Decidueye x47
Captain Rainbow x45
Blaze the Cat x45
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x35
Concept: More Bosses x35
Brian (Quest 64) x32
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
[Rerate] Micaiah x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Johnny Silverhand x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Marx (Kirby) x9
Toon Zelda x8
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Morrigan Aensland flies past Spyro to first place. Heavy shoots through Kyle Hyde for fourth place. Kamek warps past Saber and takes sixth.

Ellie sneaks past 100 noms.

Terry Bogard bursts past 50 noms.

Today's newcomers are Nightmare and League of Legends rep, each with 5 noms.

Also thanks WaddleMatt WaddleMatt now I don't have to double post.
 
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A skeleton that's a pain in the ***, rather than being spooky and scary:
Chance: 30%-He's an indie after all, and after what we saw with Shovel Knight and Shantae, I'm not expecting one of them to become a playable character. However, he's still incredibly popular, and Undertale has to be one of them most successful indie games out there.
Want: 0%-I'm really not a fan. Even if I recognize the game's success, that doesn't mean I was fan of seeing it everywhere. I'd rather see Shovel Knight being turned into a playable character as far as indies go.

Another one of these:
Chance: 0%-With Fire Emblem characters, recency matters the most. If Celica were to be playable, that should've been in the base roster. Not to mention, my position as far as Nintendo characters are concerned remains the same, we won't see them in this Pass.
Want: 0%-Same as always. I don't want more Fire Emblem characters. They're boring, too similar in different traits, and to top it all off, they bring a pessimistic attitude in fans and makes them think they're inevitable, an ideology that's making me sick, hence why I'm now even more wishful that the whole line-up will be third-party.

Nominations: Morrigan x10
 
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Kotor

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Sans
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I was a bit baffled to see people here think Sans was underrated. 3.85% seems perfectly for the time he was rated. If anything, I think his rating should've been lower. If we're gonna humor Undertale getting a playable character, shouldn't it be Frisk? "Sans is more popular than Frisk, so he should be playable." Smash didn't default to Slime when picking a Dragon Quest character. They stuck to the protagonist, and even went out of their way to grab three other protagonists from the series. He's a meme pick like Steve, but the one advantage Sans has is no one made a grotesque model of him to ****post how his chances are better than a bunch of other indie picks are. Megalovania is a catchy song.

He'd have to be a massive spoiler for Undertale
Does that really matter now? With so many people that've memed Sans, people have to be aware that he's the final boss of the genocide route. His own boss fight has 20 million views on Youtube, and an animation of it 53 million. I'm aware and I've never played Undertale.

Celica
Chance: 0%
Want: 50%

An unfortunate circumstance for Celica to be in. A new Fire Emblem is on the way with her no where to be found. At this point in the game, someone from Three Houses is more likely to get in. I suppose you could go for the lazy route and turn her into.... a Robin echo... She wouldn't work as one.
I suppose you could say Jedah tricked Celica into burning her Smash invitational because her leaving would bring Valentia to ruin.

Unlike most people, I see no problem adding more FE characters. I was opposed to anyone from Three Houses getting in before the game was released, but with Fighter #4 probably not getting revealed until say November, I welcome Edelgard, or even Dimitri or Claude with open arms. Bring in the chaos.

Johnny Silverhand x5
 

GoodGrief741

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Ultomato

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Megalovania

Chance: 16,7%
Undertale has an okay-ish shot at getting into DLC. We all know Nintendo likes jerking off their Indie reps and Undertale and Hollow Knight are the two indie juggernaughts not repped by assists or Spirits yet. If An indie rep gets into DLC, these two Will have to compete over the spot. Hollow Knight has an advantage in pure sales figures. Undertale has a Strange position in that it is the only indie game to recieve a personal promo card on the start screen. It's clear that Nintendo likes pushing this game in particular.

So considering that, in theory, there might Just be an indie rep in the fighter pass and it might Just be from Undertale, theres the playable character elephant in the room. One might think Sans blows Frisks chances out of the water. He is definitely more iconic, but I can see Sakurai going with the playable character, who "shapes the Experience of Undertale" instead. To be fair I give Them An equal shot.

Want: 60%
I'm a bit torn here. I don't care too much about sans and personally I'm not the biggest fan of putting non-playable characters in smash unless they're the main bad guy. Also there's the memes. I'm terrified of those. But dear Lord the music hed bring.

Hot Robin

Chance: 10%
Even this is higher then my guts tell me but there is a theoretical chance. Three issues: another Fire Emblem is probably a bad business move and Nintendo knows it. Another Fire Emblem character would probably be a promotional pick thus from Three Houses. A non-promotional Fire Emblem character would probably be some older, more popular character.
On top of that, she would probably play extremely similar to Robin or Somehow-Even-More-Anime-Robin (Hero).
Then, even IF an Echoes rep barges in, she competes with Alm. But in the end, Echoes came out during dlc-picking-time so I can't go with 0%

Want: 3%
Shed be cool-ish, but she wouldn't bring anything new to smash. Also there's way more interesting Fire Emblem characters to pick from. Most importantly, as a Fire Emblem fan, I don't want to spark the FE-hate again and adding yet another swordie to smash would do Just that.

Bandanadee prediction: 13,95%
Phoenix prediction: 51,17%
Doomslayer prediction: 35,58%

Noms: Rundas x5
 

Neosonic97

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
117
Just getting a quick note out there: Being relatively unknown in the west isn't really a valid argument any more, as long as they're prevalent in Japan, and likely vice-versa. The Dragon Quest characters ensure that.

You know Erdrick? The guy who people leaked to hell and back? From Dragon Quest 3? Turns out, in the US, his game only sold approximately 100,000 units. It absolutely bombed in America. That's actually fourth worst western sales figures in the Dragon Quest series, tying with Dragon Quest Swords. Dragon Quest 4, where Solo's from, did even worse, selling only about 80,000 units in America, tied third worst with Dragon Quest 5 DS, with only the original Dragon Quest Monsters and the DS version of Dragon Quest 6 doing worse than that, being second worst and worst respectively.

Needless to say, you'd be forgiven for saying the infamous 'literally who?' in response to hearing the name Erdrick if you're not from Japan, as DQ3 wasn't very popular in the US, and didn't even make it to Europe.

In fact, only four games in the series broke 250,000 in the west, three of those broke 500,000 and only one broke 750,000 in the US (with NONE breaking a million). And only two of these games' main characters feature as costumes.

Notably, the DQ games that sold relatively well in the west were Dragon Quest 9 (approximately 410,000 copies), Dragon Warrior (Dragon Quest 1, which sold 500,000 approximately), Dragon Quest 8 (approximately 510,000 copies), and Dragon Quest 11 (About 800,000 copies).

If you ever needed any proof that series whose popularity was/is centralised in Japan were on the table for Super Smash Bros., The Hero's reveal trailer is it.
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
396
I’m abstaining on today because I have some rants to prepare for tomorrow on Phoneix and BDee.
Nominations
Blaze x3 Specter Knight x2
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
503
For context, I'm gonna throw in all the other times I've talked about Sans at length. Seems some folks are forgetting some important details again.

Sans

Chance: 0.01%
Sans is a uniquely unlikely case. He has all the usual drawbacks of any third-party who isn't super-iconic: not as big of a name as Sonic or Cloud, not as integral to his genre or history like Ryu or Crash, and not close enough to Nintendo to have any favors lined up, like Layton or Shovel Knight might. But that's already tibia-xpected from a third-party candidate.

What Sans has that most others don't is a ridiculous wave of popularity, being the exact kind of character that most kids would fall for. Two years after Undertale's release, the game still remains alive on the internet despite having no real updates besides the occasional port, and it doesn't even need those ports to survive. Popularity like that is not something to be overlooked - if you had a list of characters that'd make bigger waves than Sans, you'd find it depressingly short, and we already know that Sakurai is dead set on raising the spectacle level of these games. People would kill to see Sans fight.

But Sans could have everything going for him in another universe - Nintendo's support, absolute relevance, present-day popularity - in which case, almost everyone here would be giving him +50% scores. But I'd still give him less than a 1% chance, because Sans lacks a vital component that we've taken for granted on everybody else but Sora: the approval of his owner.

As you might know, Undertale was mostly made by an annoying dog named Toby Fox. Now, Toby Fox has a strange rule, despite being the sole creator and owner of one of the most influential video games of the decade: he will not, under any circumstance, recognize or reveal any spoiler that he put into his own game (or at least, spoilers that you can't prove are spoilers without additional context). Observe: in 2016, he opened an ask blog in celebration of his game's anniversary, promising that Undertale characters would answer the best questions submitted.

He proceeded to spend the whole day making everyone confront the question of what Papyrus' favorite food was.

People will tell you that the best way to play Undertale is with as few clues as to what will happen as possible, impossible as that might be these days. And yet, it's the same dog-gone presentation that Toby Fox has stuck with up to today, prevalent in both trailers for the Undertale ports and his present-day interactions with the internet . But without any spoilers whatsoever, Sans is just a bag of layabout lazybones that likes to crack bad skeleton puns, a side character with little other substance to him. That Sans would be an almost disappointing inclusion by himself because the character that people actually like is what's beneath the surface of Undertale's presentation.

Which is why I believe Sans is such a uniquely unlikely case: because his creator would probably never let him actually fight in any official appearance. His chances are even worse than rest of the cast's chances because of this, because Sans' spoilers lie behind almost everyone else's. This isn't whether Smash would respect Undertale's spoilers (it wouldn't,) but whether Toby Fox would let them spoil to that extent, when Undertale is one of the few games so harshly crippled by what the player knows about it going in. Even if he topped the Smash ballot, even if Sakurai got it into his head that Smash absolutely had to have a playable Undertale character - there's an almost certain chance that the Annoying Dog would, with all peace of mind, decline the offer immediately. And that's not even going into how much Undertale stands against senseless methodological violence.

What can I say? I had a skele-ton to talk about.


Want: 20%
Honest truth, though: Undertale would probably be one of the best games that they could ever cameo in Smash Bros. Directly influenced by a Nintendo game, it's a perfect example of an indie game that you'd want to represent, one that also happened to change the way most people view how they play games. Inspired, inspiring, and also known by pretty much everyone, an addition from here would score more points from the non-Nintendo crowd than most other third-party franchises can offer.

But Sans himself? Give the guy a break, geez. Now his brother, on the other hand...
hey buddy, do we have to calculate the chance ratings ourselves, or what?

sans

Chance: 0.01% -> 0.01%
This should have gone up, since we're well past both Undertale's original release date and its Switch debut. Undertale's built up a gigantic presence in Japan since then, while both going three years without leaving the public consciousness and, to top it all off, revealing its own sequel a mere day before the November Direct. Deltarune is going to guarantee that Undertale doesn't fade into obscurity anytime soon.

This would work wonderfully for Sans (and any Undertale representation for that matter) had the decision not been given to Nintendo.

Sans's big bet is that he pervades popular awareness to the point that he becomes the officially-recognized icon of Undertale, much like how Pikachu represents Pokemon by himself. Keyword: officially. It doesn't matter how many bad photoshops and Fortnite dances get showcased with Sans if Undertale's store page still only slices him as one of the game's numerous quirky characters. The most that Sans going for him in that regard is that he got to spearhead Undertale's reveal trailer back in the February Direct along with his brother, and I'm more willing to bet that that was just a casual decision on Toby Fox's part than some request from Nintendo.

Otherwise, there's just no reason that Nintendo would pick Sans themselves. Why would they? Not only is he only popular because of internet culture, but he's hardly evocative of the game that they're trying to rope into Smash--he's a host onto himself, a meme with a meaning already long divorced from Undertale. As a boss character, he's absolute anathema to their core belief of creating simple challenges that prioritize fun over thought-provoking storyline. Nothing about trying to reach San's boss fight can be considered "simple fun", let alone the things that characterize him.

"But that's just meme Sans, not the real Sans!" Yeah, and the real Sans is a pun-cracking lazybones that would replace his roster slot with a markered name tag at the first opportunity. If that's not the Sans that shows up in Smash, then that's really just not Sans.

Oh yeah, and Toby Fox wouldn't let Sans be playable. Why does no one else think that counts for anything when Smash always respects creator consent?


Want: 20% -> 1%
As much I like Undertale, I don't want to see Sans playable in Smash, nor do most people who've actually played the game. As far as Undertale reps in general go, I still find Papyrus to be the best choice, for reasons and movesets I've already given.
so now you wanna give me a free day, huh? sure would've been nice a year ago

Chance: 0.01% -> 0.01% -> 0.1%
This really should have been Undertale Rep. Sans by himself remains a divisive figure that dilutes the argument, especially with those recent comparisons to Sephiroth floating around. (He really is just the Sephiroth of the 2010's, isn't he? Explains so much about him.)

On one hand, the trend of choosing games that people really love continues, and tons of people still genuinely love Undertale. The western barrier has been unlocked, if not broken down entirely, opening speculation up to a whole world of possibilities. On the other, why are we starting with Sans of all people?

I'm really not seeing how the recent newcomers help Sans out in particular. One could argue that Banjo was a popular but relatively niche franchise in the grand scheme of things, but that doesn't help out Undertale exclusively. Heck, Sans is way closer to Steve in terms of situation than Banjo - insanely popular with the younger generation, and little real legacy to speak of. Look who won that exchange.

Meanwhile, Hero getting in pushes for a game's protagonist over more iconic monsters like the Slime, which of course works against Sans and company. I find it just as doubtful that Frisk would be a good candidate, but it certainly means that Sans can't argue familiarity alone to get into Smash over the human.

All the old arguments still apply, by the way. There's still too many other, older franchises to consider. An accurate in-character moveset for Sans would still be really difficult to make. Toby Fox would still not likely approve of casually spoiling Undertale and mischaracterizing his characters. Nintendo themselves may not see Sans as the ideal Undertale rep.

If there's one thing that the E3 newcomers teach us in regards to Undertale's chances, it's that Nintendo and Sakurai don't fall for trends as easily as we think. Otherwise, we'd likely have seen Kingdom Hearts and Minecraft get newcomers instead.


Want: 20% -> 1% -> 1%
I want to see Undertale get a character somehow, but I don't really want to see Sans by his final boss self. I'd still rather have the skelebros work as an unconventional duo, especially since that ties a lot better with Undertale's strangeness than a plain old newcomer.


Celica

Chance: 1%
Sorry lady, you're shot. Not only does it look like the third parties are here to stay, but Three Houses is literally right around the corner. If there was ever, ever, going to be a Fire Emblem rep, it's going to come from there. If Micaiah's any indication, then the time for Celica to get in has simply passed.

What else is there really to say? Lords come and go, and we've still got people clamoring for the likes of Lyn when they should've been cheering for Sigurd. Pokemon suffers from this as well, and the only thing left is to shrug it off, not argue for why a particular generation ought to overstay its welcome.

Want: 20%
She's a sword-mage princess that could've subbed as a Robin echo, but that's all the interest I have in her. Shadows of Valentia wasn't that big, you know.


Nominations
Valve rep x5
 
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DaUsername

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
434
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In that corner over there
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:ultness: (LOL GET IT?! Subscribe for more Undertale memes)
Chance: 0%
He isn't even the protagonist of his own game. Plus, the two characters people actually wanted in are an Assist Trophy and a Spirit. Do you really think Sans would be any different?
Want: 0%
You'll never be able to convince me that Sans is anything other than a meme pick. I never really liked the "indie character in Smash" idea anyway.

[Fire Emblem character]
Chance: 0%
The only reason for her to be in Smash is that she's from the newest g-
Wait, hold on.
You're telling me they're making another one?
"Yes."
So she isn't from the newest game anymore?
"Yeah."
Well alright then, on that note, there is no reason for Celica to be in Smash.
Want: 0%
We don't need any more FE characters, we have enough.
All I wish is for a world without Fire Emblem.

Dee prediction: 5%
Wright prediction: 30%
DOOM prediction: 45%
Noms: Another western character x10
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,441
Sans

Chance - 0% - Slime was the most famous character (?) of Dragon Quest, yet still lost to The Hero. Sans, at this point, is in a similar position to Frisk. Considering how hard of a sell Undertale would be in the first place, and you have a character that I have absolutely no faith in.

Want - 20% - Undertale's okay, I guess. It's just that it's not the kind of series that I think should get a character. You can add other stuff, but a character seems unnecessary.


Celica

Chance - 0% - New Fire Emblem is coming soon. If we get another Fire Emblem character, it's going to be someone from the new game, not some older one.

Want - 20% - Anna is the only Fire Emblem character I want. Even then, I'd rather wait until the next game to get her in. I'd rather not have her in.


Predictions

Dee - 2.45% - *Trumpet plays taps*

Wright Prediction - 12.45% - A boost to the arm, maybe?

Doom Guy - 43.56% - A good shot, I guess.


Nominations

Candice X5
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
599
Location
New Jersey
*Sans sound beep*. Now read everything I write in Sans' voice.

I can't write in Comic Sans, so this'll have to make do.

Chance: I'm not sure I'm feeling it, 30%. While he has Frisk whupped in terms of popularity (though Frisk is still like in the top 20 most popular characters relative to Smash, I'd say, Sans is in the top 15 at worst, top 10 at best), there's three factors why I think Frisk is more likely regardless. One, they can bring the feeling of playing Undertale into Smash (morality system is the most likely, but there's also the SOUL modes, and there's the stuff that goes on in the overworld) while Sans is unable to do so outside of his bubble (for reference, this is most likely what got Heihachi canned in Smash 4: not input animations, it was the inability to replicate the feel of Tekken), and only represents a single third of the game, so that could be a possible factor. Number two, Hero happened and Slime didn't: remember that Slime is drastically more popular than any individual Dragon Quest hero (except maybe 8) worldwide; this doesn't bode well for Sans, whose popularity is the biggest argument over Frisk's. Speaking of the Hero, the Human has a back up name to go by if Toby suddenly gets apprehensive about spoilers (though given Groove Coaster, I can’t imagine he minds too much) while Sans is impossible to make a moveset for without spoilers, and spoilers are the backbone of why people want him. I also think the Pikachu argument falls flat when A. there's no character switching in Smash 64 at all, and attempting to implement that would be insane relative to its dev time and cartridge space, B. the Pokémon Trainer cannot fight on their own, and C. Smash references the anime by-and-large for Smash, of which Pikachu IS the main character alongside Ash. That being said, Undertale is a very iconic series in general. Sans can’t have too low of a chance, considering that it’s still one of the biggest indies you’ll find and perhaps the one with the most worldwide appeal. And Sans is the more popular character, so maybe that's enough to get in anyway. Heck, they could even put in Papyrus as a trojan horse for Sans.

(As an aside, if the March 2018 Tweet and Deltarune reference are anything to go by, it seems Toby is a fan of Smash, so I have trouble imagining him rejecting the offer to have one of his creations in Smash in general. Were it not for that, I would've gone lower. Also, I don't consider Hollow Knight Sans competition: only Frisk. Thus, I won't hold Hollow Knight against either.)

Want: When I want an Undertale character, it's partly because I want that humorous narrator to have a Smash Taunt on the home stage, and partly because I think the concept of a character who can resist the urge to fight: these are things I think Frisk can do, but Sans cannot. I think Sans would be very well suited to a stage boss that makes what I think would make more sense for the character, being in the game but out of your reach: the perfect joke. That being said, if he were in, he'd actually be a pretty neat inclusion, but I'd still prefer Frisk way more. But hey, he brings the soundtrack in. 45%, still represents one of the most popular games in recent years.

Let's go back to normal for Celica... oops, it doesn't seem like there's a way back. D'oh.

The Red One of the Christmas Lords (oh my god it's true. Celica is faster, Alm is stronger, Celica is red and Alm is green.)

Chance: Yeah, they tanked. 1%, because anything can happen but Celica is somebody whose window of opportunity has shut really hard. The reveal of Joker, plus the fact that it seems like her relevance is up, plus the fact she didn't make it as Robin's Echo really add up. Combine that with how a Heroes character would still be more likely even IF they decide 3H is too new, and it paints a bad picture of Celica's chances.

Want: 35%. While not a bad character by any means, Celica is somebody who I really don't care for at this point in time. Fire Emblem has enough characters who use swords, and if I wanted another in, somebody using a lance, an axe, a bow, or even a staff would be much more appreciable. But she is a very nice character who I wouldn't be opposed to.

Sunflower x 5.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
4,547
Just getting a quick note out there: Being relatively unknown in the west isn't really a valid argument any more, as long as they're prevalent in Japan, and likely vice-versa. The Dragon Quest characters ensure that.

You know Erdrick? The guy who people leaked to hell and back? From Dragon Quest 3? Turns out, in the US, his game only sold approximately 100,000 units. It absolutely bombed in America. That's actually fourth worst western sales figures in the Dragon Quest series, tying with Dragon Quest Swords. Dragon Quest 4, where Solo's from, did even worse, selling only about 80,000 units in America, tied third worst with Dragon Quest 5 DS, with only the original Dragon Quest Monsters and the DS version of Dragon Quest 6 doing worse than that, being second worst and worst respectively.

Needless to say, you'd be forgiven for saying the infamous 'literally who?' in response to hearing the name Erdrick if you're not from Japan, as DQ3 wasn't very popular in the US, and didn't even make it to Europe.

In fact, only four games in the series broke 250,000 in the west, three of those broke 500,000 and only one broke 750,000 in the US (with NONE breaking a million). And only two of these games' main characters feature as costumes.

Notably, the DQ games that sold relatively well in the west were Dragon Quest 9 (approximately 410,000 copies), Dragon Warrior (Dragon Quest 1, which sold 500,000 approximately), Dragon Quest 8 (approximately 510,000 copies), and Dragon Quest 11 (About 800,000 copies).

If you ever needed any proof that series whose popularity was/is centralised in Japan were on the table for Super Smash Bros., The Hero's reveal trailer is it.
Dragon Quest is not obscure in the West as a series. Most of its characters are, sure, but not the series itself. I'm not sure what this has to do with today's topic though.

For context, I'm gonna throw in all the other times I've talked about Sans at length. Seems some folks are forgetting some important details again.





so now you wanna give me a free day, huh? sure would've been nice a year ago

Chance: 0.01% -> 0.01% -> 0.1%
This really should have been Undertale Rep. Sans by himself remains a divisive figure that dilutes the argument, especially with those recent comparisons to Sephiroth floating around. (He really is just the Sephiroth of the 2010's, isn't he? Explains so much about him.)

On one hand, the trend of choosing games that people really love continues, and tons of people still genuinely love Undertale. The western barrier has been unlocked, if not broken down entirely, opening speculation up to a whole world of possibilities. On the other, why are we starting with Sans of all people?

I'm really not seeing how the recent newcomers help Sans out in particular. One could argue that Banjo was a popular but relatively niche franchise in the grand scheme of things, but that doesn't help out Undertale exclusively. Heck, Sans is way closer to Steve in terms of situation than Banjo - insanely popular with the younger generation, and little real legacy to speak of. Look who won that exchange.

Meanwhile, Hero getting in pushes for a game's protagonist over more iconic monsters like the Slime, which of course works against Sans and company. I find it just as doubtful that Frisk would be a good candidate, but it certainly means that Sans can't argue familiarity alone to get into Smash over the human.

All the old arguments still apply, by the way. There's still too many other, older franchises to consider. An accurate in-character moveset for Sans would still be really difficult to make. Toby Fox would still not likely approve of casually spoiling Undertale and mischaracterizing his characters. Nintendo themselves may not see Sans as the ideal Undertale rep.

If there's one thing that the E3 newcomers teach us in regards to Undertale's chances, it's that Nintendo and Sakurai don't fall for trends as easily as we think. Otherwise, we'd likely have seen Kingdom Hearts and Minecraft get newcomers instead.


Want: 20% -> 1% -> 1%
I want to see Undertale get a character somehow, but I don't really want to see Sans by his final boss self. I'd still rather have the skelebros work as an unconventional duo, especially since that ties a lot better with Undertale's strangeness than a plain old newcomer.


Celica

Chance: 1%
Sorry lady, you're shot. Not only does it look like the third parties are here to stay, but Three Houses is literally right around the corner. If there was ever, ever, going to be a Fire Emblem rep, it's going to come from there. If Micaiah's any indication, then the time for Celica to get in has simply passed.

What else is there really to say? Lords come and go, and we've still got people clamoring for the likes of Lyn when they should've been cheering for Sigurd. Pokemon suffers from this as well, and the only thing left is to shrug it off, not argue for why a particular generation ought to overstay its welcome.

Want: 20%
She's a sword-mage princess that could've subbed as a Robin echo, but that's all the interest I have in her. Shadows of Valentia wasn't that big, you know.


Nominations
Valve rep x5
Can you do into detail about Sans being the new Sephiroth? I'm interested in that comparison.
though Frisk is still like in the top 20 most popular characters relative to Smash, I'd say, Sans is in the top 15 at worst, top 10 at best
You're missing quite a few characters for Sans and Frisk to be near the top 20.
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
503
Can you do into detail about Sans being the new Sephiroth? I'm interested in that comparison.
It's absolutely nothing concrete and based off of a humorous Twitter post following the FF7 trailer last week. But there's a few undeniable similarities between the two.

- memorable final bosses
- battle themes so popular that they became memetic
- ridiculously overpowered
- simplistic but recognizable defining features
- intertwined with the game's premise to the point of mastery
- caught on with the younger generation like nothing else and inspired countless imitating OCs, well beyond the reach of the game they came from

If nothing else, it might explain how these things happen in the first place.

Unrelatedly, I didn't know about that Groove Coaster stuff. Shakes up what we know can be borrowed.
 
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Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
1,017
Location
The elegant battlefield.
The Lazy Skeleton Dance

Chance: 5%
I think Sans is an odd character to discuss. He's not the main character. He's not even the main antagonist. Sure, in one route he's the final boss, but Flowey is really the main antagonist (barring other genocide route spoilers) of the game. That said, Sans is a popular character, but when a 3rd party, or in this case an indie series, gets a character, the main character should always come first. Then there's the battle with Sans himself. Sans... realistically only has 1 HP. How in the world is a character like that supposed to accurately translate? I just can't help but see complications with this character.

Want: 0%
I do like Undertale. But the point of the game is supposed to go against violence. Isabelle is one thing, I mean, even Animal Crossing let's you hit villagers with nets when you want to be mischievous. But Undertale? The game discourages you from following the violent route. Putting that into a fighting game doesn't really work in my opinion.

FEwer characters would be preferred

Chance: 1%
At this point, if FE get's a character. and that's an extremely big if, It'd be Three Houses. Even then, the series has seen character fatigue. Sakurai himself was weary with adding more, and even if we ignored that, the fighter pass is looking to be 3rd party, or at the very least, characters we'd never expect. So what about Celica. Well, yes an no. I'd expect Fire Emblem... Three Houses. So I guess Celica does technically fall into the unexpected category. But on the other hand, there's no major demand to for her that'd blow the collective fan bases mind. Honestly, she just doesn't have anything major going for her.

Want: 0%
Honestly, rating Fire Emblem characters is never fun. It always becomes the same thing. "This series has too many characters." And I know a lot of the FE fans are tired of hearing that, but I can't help feeling that way. We saw the series get an influx of characters in Smash 4, to the point where Corrin was a hated inclusion to many because it screamed advertising. Celica, I will admit, I don't really have anything against. Unlike Three Houses characters, who I don't want to see since we know little about the characters, Celica doesn't suffer from that. Still, I'd like a break from seeing characters in the series.

Predictions:
Doom Guy - Hard to say. I know little about the series. 16.5%
Pheonix Wright - A bit more optimistic about the chance rating here, what with costume theory. 27.33%
Bandana Dee - Oof, my poor Dreamland Warrior. He's certainly fallen from grace in chance. 3.07%

Nominations: Kamek x5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
4,547
It's absolutely nothing concrete and based off of a humorous Twitter post following the FF7 trailer last week. But there's a few undeniable similarities between the two.

- memorable final bosses
- battle themes so popular that they became memetic
- ridiculously overpowered
- simplistic but recognizable defining features
- intertwined with the game's premise to the point of mastery
- caught on with the younger generation like nothing and inspired countless imitations, well beyond even the game they came from

If nothing else, it might explain how these things happen in the first place.

Unrelatedly, I didn't know about that Groove Coaster stuff. Shakes up what we know know can be borrowed.
Huh, that's really insightful.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,200
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TCT~Phantom
Day Over

Today we are rerating Bandana Dee, Doomguy, and Phoenix Wright. Tomorrow is Steve and Resident Evil Day (Predict Jill and Leon).

Gonna do my scores now

Dee

10% Chance

Sad but true. There are only a small handful of unique first party characters I even consider likely for DLC. Dee is one of them.

The main aspects going for Dee is that he is popular and he is the fourth Kirby character. I do not think you can really state that Bandana Dee is not the next Kirby rep anymore. I did not think you could make that argument in 4. However, he is clearly next in line for Kirby. Also helping him is he is a big fan favorite, especially in Japan.

Alas, the scene of speculation has lead to ideas that go against Dee. For starters, Spirits seem to be a worse and worse sign since all three of the newcomers are from new franchises. Third parties also are the name of the game. Not Good for Dee.

If we get Dee, I see him coming as a bonus outside of a pass, like Plant.

70% Want

I mean he would be fine I guess. I know friends who would be happy with him. But I just see him and I do not expect myself to have fun playing as him. I also am not the biggest Kirby fan, in fact I have not liked a Kirby game that much TBH since Mass Attack/Return to Dreamland.


Phoenix Wright

30% Chance

Ironically not a character that I saw as underrated. I actually thought he was right around where I saw him, a solid chance but not a DLC frontrunner, a dark horse.

The Ace Attorney games scream Nintendo, and as such he would feel right at home. The franchise has a long history with Nintendo as well. He also is a relatively popular character.

However, there is...something that I think makes him less likely. See tomorrows rating and my scores on that to understand why.

100% Want

I love Ace Attorney. I love the music, the charm, everything about it. I would be ecstatic for Phoenix, he was one of my mains in UMVC3.

Doomguy

30% Chance

Yeah i said he was my third most underrated choice. However that does not mean I think he is super likely. Doomguy is one of the characters that a lot has gone well for lately. Good switch connections, relevant, western characters are a thing. However, I do not think he is too likely.

My biggest gripe for Doomguy and his train is I do not think Doom is a big enough deal in the smash scene or in japan to help him get in. Banjo was a huge never ever character who people were hoping for for years. Crash and Sans both are popular in Japan. Doomguy is much more niche than those two are. While Sakurai might be a fan, I do not know if that will be enough.

100% Want

I just want the music. Doom has such a good soundtrack and I would love to have remixes of it in Smash. Also Doom is a huge important game, it is the original FPS and as such I think it deserves a spot.

Nominating Spyro x 5
 

MissingGlitch

Smash Champion
Joined
Jan 18, 2019
Messages
2,092
Location
Texas
Dee:

0% chance
I just don’t think there is going to be any Nintendo first parties in the fighter pass. I want to be proven wrong. However it doesn’t look likely that the last two are going to have a Nintendo character since the first three characters were heavily requested big name third parties.

50% want
I don’t have an attachment to him as others do. But I always welcome more Kirby characters and I know it would make a lot of people happy. But I wouldn’t feel bad if he isn’t added.

Phoenix Wright:

50% Chance
I feel like it’s up in the air right now since we don’t have a lot of stuff to work off of. But Ace Attorney has been a staple of Nintendo handhelds for a long time and he is a real popular character, normally in the top 15 in fan polls. The games are also extremely popular in Japan. I think he has enough going for him to give him a decent chance, But I did 50% because there is Resident Evil to worry about. I feel like Capcom might want to push for that more.

100% Want
Ace Attorney were some of my favorite games on my 3DS. I love Nick’s character. And I feel the world he lives in, and his art style would fit perfectly in smash. Ace Attorney music would be god tier.

Doom Guy:

35% Chance
Doom Guy is the father of the FPS genre. He has had a home on Nintendo consoles for a long time. Sakurai even commented on Doom’s importance. Even being rated M is no longer a reason because we have several rated M characters right now that Sakurai was able to tame just fine. It’s so low for me though because it is yet another western dev and I don’t see Sakurai trying that again anytime soon after Banjo. But Bethesda said they did talk to Nintendo about Smash so who knows. I just know it isn’t O% chance.

100% Want
I love everything about him. And the music he would come with would be pumping to fight to. Rip and Tear! It would be exciting to see all the new stuff they added in Doom 2016 be integrated in his moveset.
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,200
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Dee:

0% chance
I just don’t think there is going to be any Nintendo first parties in the fighter pass.

50% want
I don’t have an attachment to him as others do. But I always welcome more Kirby characters and I know it would make a lot of people happy.

Phoenix Wright:

50% Chance
I feel like it’s up in the air right now since we don’t have a lot of stuff to work off of. But Ace Attorney has been a stable of Nintendo handhelds for a long time and He is a real popular character, normally in the top 15 in fan polls. I think he stands a good chance,

100% Want
Ace Attorney were some of my favorite games on my 3DS. I love Nick’s character. And I feel the world he lives in, and his art style would fit perfectly in smash. Ace Attorney music would be god tier.

Doom Guy:

35% Chance
Doom Guy is the father of the FPS genre. He has had a home on Nintendo consoles for a long time. Sakurai even commented on Doom’s importance. Even being rated M is no longer a reason because we have several rated M characters right now that Sakurai was able to tame just fine. It’s so low for me though because it is yet another western dev and I don’t see Sakurai trying that again anything soon after Banjo. But Bethesda said they did talk to Nintendo about Smash so who knows. I just know it isn’t O% chance.

100% Want
I love everything about him. And the music he would come with would be pumping to fight to. Rip and Tear!
Remember for your scores to count to make sure that there is two sentences per each one, that Dee one lookin a little bare :p.
 

Geassguy

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
178
Dee: Not super likely IMO, I'd have zero issue with him, but this whole fighter pass seems to be dedicated to guests/3rd Party. He seems more likely to happen in a potential second fighter pass. 20%

Pheonix Wright: I would say he has a pretty decent chance, if capcom can get a third rep in this time around, which is hard to say. I'd say about 40% chance. Would love his inclusion.

Doomguy/Slayer/ect: 50%
I actually think he has a solid chance, Sakurai is on record saying he considers John Carmack, and by extension Doom itself, "the father of FPS's." and that was the ONE western name he picked for that list. Then you have Pete Hines saying in the past that Bethesda talked with Nintendo about smash, and just recently (right after Banjo), in a podcast on the 14th, he said "maybe some more (Doom related) surprises for Nintendo fans along the way." To me that's either ports of older Doom games for Switch, oooorrr.....

Then there's the series overall importance to gaming to consider and the fact that Doom was on SNES, GBA, had an exclusive on N64, and just recently a port of DOOM 2016 on Switch (when no one expected it and hardly anyone was supporting the switch yet) and soon again with Eternal.

It IS the Year of Doom, and arguably the year of Smash...

In order to be realistic and keep my expectations in check I wont put him higher than 50%. My want is, if you can't tell, 300 freakin %, I think he would fit and deserves it, one of the most deserving western franchises with strong Nintendo history.
 
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PeridotGX

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 8, 2017
Messages
2,505
Location
That Distant Shore
NNID
Denoma5280
Switch FC
2036-9032-5151
Bannana Waffle Dee

Chance: 10%. I wish I could give him more, but unfortunately he's not all that likely. He has a spirit, DLC has been shown to favor 3rd parties, and Banjo took a possible "fan favorite" slot.

Want: 100%. He's tied for my most wanted. Kirby, as a series, is severely under-repped and Bandana Dee would help alleviate that.

ho-oh.PNG

Chance: 55%. A Capcom rep feels like a certainty at this point, and Pheonix is certainly a frontrunner. Ace Attorney is a pretty popular franchise, and taps into a completely different market than any of the 3 previously announced characters (AA is a handheld series and a very different Genre). Plus, if that stupid color theory holds any weight, then Pheonix benefits, as his jacket is blue.

Want: Abstain. I've never played an Ace Attorney Game.

Gun^2

Chance: 45%. The Doomguy's chances are far from doomed. Banjo helped him out in two ways. Not only did he open the door to western companies, but he eliminated Master Chief, the only FPS rep in his way. Doom was instrumental to the genre's creation, so it certainly deserving of a roster slot.

Want: Abstain. I've never played a DOOM game.

Noms: X x5
 

Royalty1702

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 24, 2018
Messages
334
BWD
Chance: 0% - The Pass will likely only include left field, third party choices.
"B-B-BUT BANJO"
Banjo can be considered left field because he's still a Microsoft rep and nobody expected a Microsoft rep (at least back in 2015).
Want: 100% - Waddle Dees are my favorite video game species and I would love it if we got more Modern Kirby representation in the series. BWD's incredibly simplistic design (slightly recolored Waddle Dee with a bandana) fits the Kirby series' aesthetic more than other characters Magolor or Dark Matter (not to say I wouldn't be happy if any of those characters made it in before BWD).

PW
Chance: 10% - If we're getting a Capcom rep at this point, it's going to be Dante.
Want: 0% - I never played Ace Attorney nor MVC.

DS
Chance: 50% - Bethesda rep and completely left field pick.
Want: 40% - I like his design and would like another FPS shooter character in Smash.
 
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
654
Location
Germany
Bandana Dee
Chance: 15%
While I'm still convinced that Spirits entirely deconfirm characters, some instances I feel really hinder a character's chances. BWD being an evolved form of a Spirit is one such instance, since it is a step up from being just a "regular" Spirit.
Want: 65%
I have no real attachment to him or the Kirby series, but at this point, I'd gladly take him. There's just far too many third-party characters for my taste already.

Phoenix Wright
Chance: 65%
Well, he's a Capcom rep. And considering how the Fighter's Pass has been going so far. . . I'd say he has a decent shot.
Want: 85%
At this point, there's only two third-party characters left that I'd actually want. The one would is Amaterasu, whereas the other. . . well, take a wild guess.

Doom Guy
Chance: 85%
Between the Doom soundtrack composer having a vague project and interviews held with the developers of Eternal for this E3, I'm having a rather strong feeling that he is going to make it in. Him being the final Fighter's Pass character in particular seems rather likely to me.
Want: 5%
Yeah, no. I have no attachment to Doom myself, and I just really don't think that the series fits into Smash. Bayonetta and Snake could be made to work, but the Doom guy would just feel extremely jarring to me.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
4,547
Apple Juice

Chance: 10%
Normally I'd give a 1% to any character with presence in Smash, and Dee has a Spirit. However, and even though I don't think we'll get any first parties, if we get one, it's Dee. He's incredibly popular worldwide, has clear moveset potential, has a whole era of Kirby stages to draw from, it could happen.

Want: 100%
Every day we don't have Bandana Dee playable is a day I'm disappointed in Sakurai. One of the most obvious choices for a Smash character, with everything going for him and nothing against him. A Nintendo all-star, for sure.

Xin Eohp

Chance: 50%
Iconic, highly demanded, basically a Nintendo character, still relevant. He has all the cards, or should I say, all the evidence. 50 might seem high, but from my perspective, a Capcom rep is guaranteed, and it's a coin flip between him and a Resident Evil character. Since RE has some issues with potential moveset redundance, I'm leaning towards Phoenix being the likelier one.

Want: 100%
These are exciting times we live in. Phoenix Wright is definitely my most wanted third party, by a long shot. He's probably my 'I won't ask for anything ever again' character.

Anyone who calls him Doom Slayer is wrong

Chance: 10%
'Hey Goodgrief', you might say, 'you're giving Doomguy the same score as Bandana Dee, a first party character'. Indeed, hypothetical person, I am. Doomguy is iconic, influential, and relevant. He is also a pure gun wielder, currently interpreted as very violent, and from a franchise and genre that Japan despises. I very much struggle to envision him in Smash given those cons, despite his very strong pros. Add to that the fact that he had zero demand before 'leaks' and even now it's not so hot for him, and yeah, I think it's very unlikely that he gets in.

Want: 50%
I'm very torn (ripped and torn, you might say). On one hand, I absolutely adore the OG Dooms (Doom, Doom 2, Doom 64). They're classics, they're iconic, they're influential, I'd say they deserve Smash recognition. On the other hand, I don't think shooter characters are a really good fit for Smash. I can't see them playing very differently from Snake (who I love btw). Doomguy especially just seems like a character that wouldn't make Smash. They could tone down the violence (Doom pre-2016 is nothing that would need much toning down), but then there's the matter of a stage. Do we really have a Hell stage in Smash? Demons and all? I know Nintendo's changed over the years, but that's still something that they won't consider appropriate, I think. Look at this last E3, they were so iffy on showing Doom Eternal, a new triple A game coming out day-and-date on Switch, they relegated it to sizzle reel status (Witcher 3 and even freaking RE5 and 6 got more than that).

Also I hate 2016's Doom with a passion, but that's neither here nor there.

Noms: Kyle Hydex5

Predictions: Steve 0% (this feels nice)
Leon 29.71%
Jill 24.55%

If we're getting a Capcom rep at this point, it's going to be Dante
Dante's been disconfirmed.
 

Geoffrey Druyts

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 19, 2014
Messages
367
Location
Pootis Land
3DS FC
1993-7715-4423
Switch FC
SW 6723 8387 1403
This is my first time doing this rating thing, so sorry if I did something wrong.

Bandana Waddle Deemmadome, owner of the Deemmsdale Deemmadome

Chance: 10% Don't see it happening, sadly. The pass seems to be only for third-parties.

Want: 60% I have not played a lot of Kirby games at all, but I think the moveset the McLeodGaming team gave to BWD in Super Smash Flash 2 convinced me enough to give me a better idea of how this character would work. I would much rather have Marx tho.

Phoenix Wrong:

Chance: 65% I truly think Phoenix has an high chance to become an DLC character. The Ace Attorney games have been a Nintendo Exclusive for a really long time, starting all the way from the Gameboy Advance. He'd also be a really interesting character in terms of gameplay/moveset wise, which is something Sakurai is mostly going for when creating a new character.

Want: 100% I really love the Ace Attorney series. The characters, the gameplay, the music. I'm kind of surprised we didn't get any Ace Attorney content in the base game.

Dooms [insert funny pun] Guy

Chance: 55%? I'm not entirely sure on this one. I just heard his name a lot in a couple of leaks, so I think this score fits just right.

Want: 50% I don't really care about Doom, but a Bethesda rep would be kind of cool. So basically I'm not really against Doomsguy in Smash.
 
Joined
Nov 8, 2007
Messages
5,110
Location
Ecuador - South America
3DS FC
5301-0890-0238
NNID
punchtropics
Bandana
Chance: 10% for the current pass.
I stand by Spirits deconfirm.
I stand by Fighter Pass 1 being about 3rd parties.
the glimmer of hope comes from a little Sakurai bias thrown in the mix. Although I’m not sure how he feels about this character.

Want: 60%
It’d be easy for me to chalk it up to indifference and move on, but Kirby characters tend to make me smile, and so casually use them from time to time, so deep down, he’d be a nice addition for me.


Phoenix
Chance: 70%
I think we are getting another Capcom character. Although they’re weird when it comes to their latest AAA games on Nintendo platforms, at least they manage to sneak in their library of older games or remasters/remakes so the support is still high.

Want: 55%
I’ve never played PW, and he brings me bad memories from the days of UMVC3.
But I admit he’d be a pretty peculiar character to have in Smash. I just don’t want his UMvC3 moveset, I rather have Sakurai come up with his own take on it.

Doomguy
Chance 65%
Bethesda is a great supporter. Doom is relevant, genre defining, and iconic to say the least.
Although I’m happy that all of the barriers that prevent him from being in smash are down, I still feel like he pushes them beyond their limits. It’s why although he makes tons of sense in my head, I’m not sure how much Nintendo is willing to associate themselves with a series notorious for violence and satanic imagery. On the other hand, Doom can be playful, and have a sense of humor. Bethesda could be more than willing to twist and nerf the violence into milder black humor oriented character who can run and gun.
It’s up to both developers to really sit down and discuss it thoroughly.

Want: 100%
Like... as much as I wanted a DQ character in smash so... pretty bad!
I grew up with Doom. It was my obsession. Made me want to be a level designer. Sadly my opportunities and timing!weren’t right, not to mention lack of parental support to achieve this, so I couldn’t make it. But Doom was extremely influential for me, and not in a bad way.
It more than deserves to step in to the fighting museum of video game icons for what it did to gaming as a whole.
 
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