Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate DLC Day 299: Sans (Undertale) and Celica (Fire Emblem)

BluePikmin11

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I want to post here again and just wanna say to all of those that participated in the Rate Their Chances game and TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom during Ultimate's base game speculation period, thank you.

This thread has been the primary reason Smash speculation was a joy to discuss.

This thread gave me the motivation to write in-depth and really go all out to present a newcomer's chances.

I hope speculation for the Fighters Pass grows to be interesting for you guys.

Though, I will not be a part of that anymore since I am leaving Smashboards.

I am going to miss this thread the most personally.

You guys take care. TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom keep going strong with maintaining the RTC thread alright. :)
 
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The B4E3 Day

Don't recall my track record on these kinds of days, I guess I could really expect any of the following.

  • More info on Luigi's Mansion 3
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield demo
  • Zelda info (anything from new game to Link's Awakening remake)
  • Wii U to Switch ports (oh boy, my favorite as a Wii U owner)
  • Fire Emblem 3 Houses release info
  • Animal Crossing Switch
  • The obvious Smash Fighter pack character that we all know is happening
  • A brief moment where they say "we're working on Metroid Prime 4"
  • Town?
And there are things I'm not as confident about
  • New Kirby
    • Considering Star Allies was the last main game, I expect this to be something of the spin-off sort. Don't forget Epic Yarn also got a remake.
  • Pikmin 4
    • Ha, I wish.
  • Mother 3
    • It is Mother's 30th Anniversary, but Nintendo seems to have made it a habit to ignore this game no matter what. It could have the answer to life and Nintendo would still look the other way.
  • More Mario Maker Extra Modes
    • A distinct possibility, but part of me wonders if they'll make us discover these ourselves when the game releases.
Edit: Nominations
Forgot to do these with predictions, so...
Captain Rainbow x5
 
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Troykv

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What I'm expecting:

- The Four Games mentioned as the ones with the playable demos will have special highlight; but Pokémon will mostly get it in the Tree House segments, we already know enough about the game for the demo to introduced.
- Fire Emblem Three Houses gets additional information
- New stuff about the Zelda Games coming later this year.
- A lot of excitement and salt in SmashBoards

What I'm hoping for:

- A new Kirby game
- Some surprise annoucement related with Fire Emblem.

___

Are we doing nominations today? I forgot to appear in the previous days.

___

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5
 
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I'm calling:

  • Metroid Prime 4 info, with gameplay
  • Geno DLC announcement

I am really hoping we get some good news regarding Banjo too. Some hard dates for the upcoming releases would be nice. Lots of good Luigi's Mansion 3 info too please. Ooh, and Pikmin 4. Please, Nintendo?
 
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Time for my E3 Predictions

Nintendo's Lineup
-Animal Crossing takes center stage, hyping a holiday release
-Luigi's Mansion 3 gets a trailer and an October release
-Daemon x Machina gets a trailer
-Mario Maker 2 and Fire Emblem get quick trailers, a FE direct in the future is mentioned
- "New" WarioWare which ends up being very similar to Gold in terms of its direction
- 2.5D Metroid Game
-Crash Team Racing Trailer
-DQXI Trailer
-Astral Chain info
-Links Awakening Info
-SNES Games announced for Nintendo Online, Special Joycons
-Ports of W101, #FE, Spyro Reignited Trilogy, Kingdom Hearts 1.5+2.5, Tales of Symphonia, and Super Mario 3D World
-Mother 3 Localization announced
-For Nindies, Hat In Time takes center stage, alongside Spelunky 2, Bloodstained, and Trine 4
-Banjo is the 2nd fighter pass character, Rare Replay comes to Switch
 
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Predictions;
*A new Smash reveal (captain obvious)
*Wonderful 101 on Switch
*New trailer for Luigi's Mansion 3
*More details on Three Houses
*A last batch of news for Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3
*More details on Sword/Shield
*New WarioWare
*New 2D Metroid
*New Animal Crossing trailer

Nominations: Morrigan x5
 
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I'm so sorry about being so late, you won't believe the day I had. I fainted from blood loss, I fell into the subway tracks, and I watched Ubisoft's boring-*** press conference. Not sure which one is worse.

I'll get to work on noms now and calcs later.

I want to post here again and just wanna say to all of those that participated in the Rate Their Chances game and TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom during Ultimate's base game speculation period, thank you.

This thread has been the primary reason Smash speculation was a joy to discuss.

This thread gave me the motivation to write in-depth and really go all out to present a newcomer's chances.

I hope speculation for the Fighters Pass grows to be interesting for you guys.

Though, I will not be a part of that anymore since I am leaving Smashboards.

I am going to miss this thread the most personally.

You guys take care. TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom keep going strong with maintaining the RTC thread alright. :)
Your posts were always a delight to read, thanks for always putting in the effort.
 
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I'm so sorry about being so late, you won't believe the day I had. I fainted from blood loss, I fell into the subway tracks, and I watched Ubisoft's boring-*** press conference. Not sure which one is worse.

I'll get to work on noms now and calcs later.


Your posts were always a delight to read, thanks for always putting in the effort.
Ouch, that sounds rough. Hope you're feeling better, and didn't get too scuffed up falling into the tracks. That sounds rather terrifying. :urg:
 

Troykv

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I'm so sorry about being so late, you won't believe the day I had. I fainted from blood loss, I fell into the subway tracks, and I watched Ubisoft's boring-*** press conference. Not sure which one is worse.

I'll get to work on noms now and calcs later.


Your posts were always a delight to read, thanks for always putting in the effort.
I hope tomorrow it's a better day GG.

I'm glad you're fine despite everything.
 
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Yo the Squeenix presentation was fire. SaGa 3 is exactly what I need in my E3.

FancySmash FancySmash Troykv Troykv thanks for the concern. Fortunately they were just momentary scares.

Spyro x140
Morrigan Aensland x135
Kyle Hyde x115
Crono x115
Kamek x111
Saber (Fate) x105
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Microsoft Rep x105

150 - 101

Heavy (Team Fortress) x101

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Concept: Square Enix rep x95
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Rundas x90
Frogger x85
Concept: Valve rep x85
Ellie (The Last of Us) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Specter Knight x55
X (Mega Man) x53
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
Decidueye x47
Terry Bogard x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x42
Captain Rainbow x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Blaze the Cat x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Qbby x28
Brian (Quest 64) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25
Concept: More Bosses x25
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
[Rerate] Micaiah x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Johnny Silverhand x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Marx (Kirby) x9
Toon Zelda x8
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x7
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Crono warps past Kamek and ties with Kyle Hyde for third.

Heavy shoots past 100 noms.

Concept: More Bosses and Sunflower reach 25 noms each.

Today's newcomer is none other than Johnny Silverhand, with 15 nominations and the hearts of everyone to his name.
 

Troykv

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Yo the Squeenix presentation was fire. SaGa 3 is exactly what I need in my E3.

FancySmash FancySmash Troykv Troykv thanks for the concern. Fortunately they were just momentary scares.

Spyro x140
Morrigan Aensland x135
Kyle Hyde x115
Crono x115
Kamek x111
Saber (Fate) x105
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Microsoft Rep x105

150 - 101

Heavy (Team Fortress) x101

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x100
Concept: Square Enix rep x95
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Rundas x90
Frogger x85
Concept: Valve rep x85
Ellie (The Last of Us) x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Specter Knight x55
X (Mega Man) x53
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
Decidueye x47
Terry Bogard x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x42
Captain Rainbow x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Blaze the Cat x35
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Qbby x28
Brian (Quest 64) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25
Concept: More Bosses x25
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
[Rerate] Micaiah x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Johnny Silverhand x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Marx (Kirby) x9
Toon Zelda x8
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x7
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
Lizalfos x4
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Crono warps past Kamek and ties with Kyle Hyde for third.

Heavy shoots past 100 noms.

Concept: More Bosses and Sunflower reach 25 noms each.

Today's newcomer is none other than Johnny Silverhand, with 15 nominations and the hearts of everyone to his name.
You're welcome :3

So we can actually nominate today? o.o

Because I would like to add x5 for Micaiah
 

NotAPro Bro

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E3 Direct, here I go.

We open with Smash, but it is NOT the character: instead, it is a general overview of 4.0.0, which will include a new mode and some new Spirits to mark the occasion.

Then we have a first party showing: A quick reminder that SMM2 exists, some more substantial footage of Luigi's Mansion 3, and the main topic of the E3 Direct (is my guess), Animal Crossing: Something Something. That's the one that'll get a late September/early October release. Metroid Prime 4, EarthBound Conclusions (that's Mother 3), and Pikmin 4 are not going to show up. At least one game will come from an inactive franchise.

Some third-party titles expected to hit the Switch soon are also going to get shown off.

Then we get some upcoming DLC for some titles, I'd guess say Super Mario Party, in addition to details on Daemon x Machina and Astral Chain. Pokémon Swish might get a shout out or two around here but it already got substantial information recently.

The direct closes with either the actual character reveal, or a teaser for a character and a "tune in on July xx for more information" for Challenger Pack 2.

More Bosses x 5.
 
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Took me a while but I did calcs. The amount of zeroes on the last day was staggering.

Monokuma
15.62% Chance, 50.77% Want
Winner of predictions was RealPokeFan11 RealPokeFan11 by virtue of being the highest prediction, with 12.74%

Erdrick
63.31% Chance, 49.53% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari Sari with 62.41%
Last time we rated him he got 24.52% Chance and 34.06% Want. The uptick in chance is self-explanatory, but the increase in want is probably due to a combination of bandwagoning, his fans coming out of the woodworks, and higher awareness of him (there was a high number of abstentions on his original day). Erdrick is now the character rated the most likely.

Amy Rose
4.12% Chance, 32.00% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 with 3.79%

Crash Bandicoot
51.80% Chance, 77.95% Want
Winner of predictions was Ultomato Ultomato with 53.38%
Last time we rated him he got 27.36% Chance and 57.5% Want. The uptick in chance might be due to more relaxed views towards Western characters (particularly after recent events) plus the announcement of the Crash Team Racing remake. As for want, who knows? Crash is now the most wanted third party character.

Frisk
15.59% Chance, 43.57% Want
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 Ridrool64 by virtue of being the highest prediction, with 10.29%

Creeper
3.07% Chance, 10.39% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 with 3.00%

Freddi Fish and Luther
8.33% Chance, 19.62% Want
There was only a single prediction so no noms are given out. Also I want it to sink in that Freddi Fish is not the lowest chance or want, and whoever is responsible should seriously think some stuff through.

So, those with extra noms are

Artix Artix 10 extra noms
Awakining Awakining 5 extra noms
DaUsername DaUsername 45 extra noms
Delzethin Delzethin 5 extra noms
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 35 extra noms
PokéfreakofBACON PokéfreakofBACON 5 extra noms
RealPokeFan11 RealPokeFan11 5 extra noms
Ridrool64 Ridrool64 5 extra noms
Sari Sari 95 extra noms
shocktarts17 shocktarts17 5 extra noms
Smashing Ramen Smashing Ramen 5 extra noms
Ultomato Ultomato 5 extra noms

Might as well get my predictions out of the way before going to bed, seeing as I'm waking up just before the Direct.

Predictions
Luigi's Mansion 3 is called exactly that, and it gets a release date.
No FE Three Houses, Super Mario Maker 2.
Pokémon gets a little showing, maybe a release date.
One of the following gets announced: new F-Zero, new Advance Wars or new Golden Sun.
Something with Wario.
Astral Chain trailer.
Bayonetta 3 trailer.
Link's Awakening is a no-show.
Erdrick shown off in Smash, Banjo teased.
Microsoft happens.

Hopes
All of the following get announced: new F-Zero, new Advance Wars and new Golden Sun.
Retro Studios' game is either a new IP or a revival.
Mysterious Murasame Castle reboot.
Any Square Enix character shown off in Smash, Banjo teased.
Ori and Battletoads announced to be coming for Switch.
Fighter Pass 2 announced.
Ace Attorney 7 announced with Phoenix Wright coming to Smash.
ARMS 2.
Captain Toad 2.
Snipperclips 2.
Generally speaking, old game gets rebooted (especially if it's a Nintendo game).

Noms: Crono x5

Hey GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 , I think you forgot my votes.


What you had in you noms you just counted:


Johnny Silverhand should have 25 noms, and Dwight should have 35.
You didn't give enough reasoning for Creeper, so you didn't get noms yesterday.
 
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  • Banjo in Smash
  • Release dates for Astral chain and Daemon X Machina
  • Meaty Lugi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing segments
  • Nothing on FE, Mario Maker 2 or Link's Awakening
  • Bayonetta 3 reveal
  • Pikmin 4 reveal
  • Racing game that isn't Mario Kart
  • Something Kirby related
Bandana Dee x3
Qbby x2
 

Chinderblock

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  • Banjo or Steve reveal, being the codename of Brave. I'm leaning towards Banjo thanks to Shinobi's leaks. The other'll be a Mii costume.
  • Luminary or Slime might get revealed this time, but it's not as likely. Leaning towards Luminary here, with various Hero alts.
  • More Three Houses stuff
  • Dream Reveal of a Quest 64 Revival(so not happening)
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing
  • Pikmin 4
  • More Bayonetta 3
  • The New Mario Kart mobile game delved into
  • Stuff I can never remember because eh. A lot of the games don't interest me.
For noms, just the usual Brian x 5
 

Jomosensual

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Sweet to see Banjo get in to finally end the Banjo vs. Steve debate. The reveal trailer was amazing. Probably my new favorite one so far. Getting just a generic Dragon Quest hero slot with all the heroes occupying it was unexpected and make me question all the leaks we've gotten again. Everyone had Erdrick and only him as the DQ character. A little bummed we have to play the waiting game again with how long the wait was for Joker, but oh well.

Other than the Smash stuff not much reactions to anything else. the 3 houses trailer was interesting and Pokemon didn't really tell me anything new. Will probably buy Astrail Chain when it comes out. Still need to play the first Breath of the Wild so not as hyped for the sequel. Solid direct overall

Noms
Ellie x5
 
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Usually, I'm not the person to ask this but, should we use this day to call satisfaction ratings?
For tradition, we wait a day. This is so hype wears off a little bit. Reactions and hype cool down today. Satisfied tomorrrow.

As for rerates, I feel with two characters and our first western IP revealed, we should. I want feedback tho.
 

Sari

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Animal Crossing being delayed to 2020 is literally the only bad thing I can think of from this Direct. Everything else was perfect and I genuinely don't think it's possible for Nintendo to top this E3.
 
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Animal Crossing being delayed to 2020 is literally the only bad thing I can think of from this Direct. Everything else was perfect and I genuinely don't think it's possible for Nintendo to top this E3.
Just found out that we can only transfer Pokémon that are in the Galar dex to sword and shield...
 

3DSNinja

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DAMN IT, NOT Dragon Quest
Wait, not just Erdrick, but every hero? Cool, I guess.
It’s basically Luminary tho.
Wait, Banjo?
YES!!!!
No, an animal crossing delay? Come ON!
This was very mixed for me. I was really mad at the DQ reveal but was jumping with Joy at Banjo.
Also now I have to edit my top 10.
Nominations
Blaze x 2 Specter Knight x3
 
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Neosonic97

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Both of these two characters look cool to me, even though (don't kill me for this) I don't really feel any connection to Banjo. I do like the fact that The Hero's magic holds both buffing and status effect spells, though. Also, the fact that he can literally Self-destruct is pretty neat.

Noms: Saber (Fate) x5
 
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Sari

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Just found out that we can only transfer Pokémon that are in the Galar dex to sword and shield...
So if a Pokemon isn't in the Galar dex they can't be obtained in Sword/Shield? Really hoping that isn't true for the final game because that will be completely kill my interest in it.
 
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So if a Pokemon isn't in the Galar dex they can't be obtained in Sword/Shield? Really hoping that isn't true for the final game because that will be completely kill my interest in it.
Yep.... definitely a hype killer, and I hope Game Freak realizes their massive mistake and fix it. The Twitch chat was pretty mad about it.
 
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The western Smash character barrier is dead, and (considering I want Crash and an Undertale character) good riddance. Also, Luigi's Mansion 3 looks good, and both Banjo and Hero look like they're brimming with the same love and attention to detail that Joker was. I'm interested in seeing Hero because, ah, is that Slime I see with them? I wonder if they'll factor into the moveset somehow. Or at least, it's great that all three get to be there, in the fray. At this point all of Crash's flaws are dead: short of Costume Theory, this guy is almost... dare I say... a semi-lock?

Personally I think they're amazing by virtue of not being Joker I mean because a great many people are happy and the west and east have been settled. Very pleased, will be giving very high satisfaction ratings.

But, ah, we probably won't get anything else until November. That's a massive drought.

I literally forgot everything else because I wasn't paying enough attention. From what I've heard, however, this is absolutely incredible stuff.

Oh, right, Sunflower x 5.
 
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Neosonic97

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At this point all of Crash's flaws are dead: short of Costume Theory, this guy is almost... dare I say... a semi-lock?
The same can be said for Reimu at this point too. With AoCF coming to the Switch, she pretty much blew up the last real complaint people had against her. Now, it's not a matter of 'if', but 'when'.
 
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Chinderblock

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For reactions...

I saw Luminary coming a mile away. He has worldwide appeal. Erdrick doesn't. It makes perfect sense for what they did. So quite happy they did the one thing that guaranteed better sales. Slime was the only other main option.

Banjo I believed had a strong chance thanks to the Shinobi leak. Very nice.

Super Zelda Maker looks awesome.

BOTW 2 might have a playable Zelda, which would vastly improve the series. As long as it's not crappy like how ST did it. Just have traditional controls, please.
 

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Reactions:
  • As soon as I saw the horse in the trailer I knew it was a DQ character. Was surprised to see it be Luminary at first and not Edrick. When Luminary started getting beat up I knew the Koopaling alt treatment was gonna happen in the form of Erdrick being one of them. Was not expecting Eight to show up though. I thought he was gonna be a mii costume like the Persona 4 protagonist.
  • Animal Crossing being delayed is a bummer but the game itself looks great.
  • Spyro trilogy on Switch! So excited.
  • When it cut to the DK characters I instantly knew it was Banjo.
  • BOTW 2 was probably the best new announcement.
Overall, best Direct ever. Will give an exact rating tomorrow on satisfaction day.
 
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Just moments ago I thought the Direct was just OK, with some nice surprises and some... unappealing stuff... but hearing the whole Sword and Shield transfer situation definitely drags my opinion of the Direct further down. I'll leave specific opinions on the Smash DLC stuff tomorrow, assuming I feel motivated enough to do so, because my interest in Smash has been dwindling like crazy for the past few weeks, and even the DLC content's not bringing back my interest. I probably won't even post anymore on this site soon enough.

Whatever, back on the topic of the Direct, it's a 4/ 10 at best for me now. Still not awful at least I guess.

:094:
 
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So, nominations. Lots of things were confirmed, way more than I expected. So yeah, time for this.

Spyro x140
Morrigan Aensland x140
Crono x120
Kyle Hyde x115
Kamek x111
Heavy (Team Fortress) x106
Saber (Fate) x105
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Boss: Kracko x92
Ninten x90
Rundas x90
Ellie (The Last of Us) x90
Frogger x85
Concept: Valve rep x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x68
Jin Kazama x65
Velvet Crowe x65
Specter Knight x57
X (Mega Man) x53
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Gene (God Hand) x50
Decidueye x47
Terry Bogard x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Captain Rainbow x45
Blaze the Cat x38
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x35
Brian (Quest 64) x32
Gooey (Kirby) x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Concept: More Bosses x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Earthworm Jim x25
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x25
[Rerate] Micaiah x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Steve? x21
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
Johnny Silverhand x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Marx (Kirby) x9
Toon Zelda x8
Magolor x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Sora (Kingdom Hearts) x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
[Rerate] Captain Toad x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
[Rerate] Geno x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Crono breaks his tie with Kyle Hyde and takes third place. Heavy joins the top 7 in sixth place.

Micaiah warps to 25 noms.

Confirmed:

Concept: Microsoft rep x105
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped company x100
Concept: Square Enix rep x100
[Rerate] Banjo-Kazooie x7
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2

Potentially confirmed

Concept: Another joke character. I'd say this definitely doesn't fit, but does anyone have any objections?

Disconfirmed

I'd say Slime is disconfirmed, seeing how it appears in Hero's moveset. What do you think?

Not disconfirmed but in a flimsier standing

I'd say every Square Enix character and Microsoft character takes a big hit, so Crono, Noctis, Steve?, Gex, Frog, Sora, Rash, and Geno ain't looking so hot right now.

As for stuff we've already rated:

Banjo-Kazooie - 21.97% Chance - 62.00% Want
Guess we didn't dare to dream back then.

Erdrick - 24.52% Chance - 34.06% Want
Would have been a heck of a curveball without them leaks.

Slime - 36.25% Chance - 53.10% Want
That's a pretty high want, so I hope Slime's fans are still content with what they got (I know I am)

Concept: No fan favorites/highly requested characters - 56.17% Chance - 39.00% Want
I consider this one disconfirmed, but to be democratic I want your input. Is Banjo, Erdrick, Luminary, Eight, or Solo a fan favorite? (I'm pretty sure I know the answer I'm going to get)

[Rerate] Erdrick - 63.31% Chance - 49.53% Want
The writing was on the wall for him.
 
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