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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Day 595: Curly as Quote's alt costume/echo fighter (Cave Story)

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,249
People probably don't know the devs behind the games IO Interactive acquired the rights to the Hitman franchise from SE sometime after Hitman 1 came out, and since then, Warner Bros published the latest Hitman games.

I'll post my ratings for Hitman later maybe.
More accurately, WB published the first Hitman, the latest two games were self-published by IO.
 

Golden Icarus

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
930
Location
St. Louis, Missouri
The Hitman from Hitman
Chance: 0.1%


Above all things, I just can’t imagine Agent 47 being a priority. He isn’t all that popular, the series is only somewhat successful, and he has minimal connection to Nintendo. Of course “anything is possible,” but if that’s the main argument a character has in their favor, then I have a hard time giving more than a 0.1% chance. We only have two slots left and with so many strong contenders, I’m pretty comfortable tossing Agent 47 aside.

Want: Abstain

I liked Hitman 3 quite a bit actually, but I don’t really care about this character at all. He could have a neat moveset, but there are definitely other things I’d want to see first. I’m gonna abstain because I’m not necessarily against the idea either. It’s just an idea I’ve scarcely thought about.

Noms on Bill Rizer
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,249
Baldy McShootFace

As the guy who nominated him, I figure it's only fair I write a Long Post™ about him.

So, Hitman. Hitman is a stealth videogame series that started in 2000. 21 years, 8 games, and 15 million sales later, it's grown to be an iconic and highly influential franchise, with spin-offs, books, films, and of course, a legion of copycats trying to emulate its unique brand of social stealth. I don't think it's bold to claim that Hitman is the second most influential stealth franchise after Metal Gear, so in the "is it important enough to include?" department I'd say it's good.

Would Nintendo go for it? Well, here's the facts: there are two Hitman games on Nintendo consoles. One is Silent Assassin all the way back on the GameCube, and the other is this year's Hitman 3 on Switch. I think Hitman 3 is the game we should be looking for; Nintendo made a big deal that it was going to be on the Switch through the cloud, particularly with Hitman being known for its sprawling and visually stunning settings. So there is a relationship between the devs and Nintendo. Whether that's enough I don't know, but at least the franchise is on the radar.

Now to address what I'm expecting to be the most common points against 47. First, Square Enix. Square Enix sold the rights to Hitman to the developers, IO Interactive, in 2017, so Hitman hasn't been a Square Enix IP since before Ultimate even released.

Another common point is that Hitman is too mature or realistic for Smash. First, Snake. Second, Hitman is goofy as ****, and not even in the Call of Duty way where they at least try to pretend it's serious; these are games where a selling point is that you can kill people by smacking them with a fish while dressed like a giant flamingo if you please. Would 47 have his trademark fiber wire and pistols in his moveset? Sure, but aside from that, he'd probably be doing wacky **** like planting explosive rubber duckies or throwing claymores to the face; hardly the generic "gun man" that people imagine when thinking of realistic Western characters. Third, his profession as a hitman. I really don't see the issue here, again, not only is Snake a mercenary, but this community has considered the likes of Kiryu (a yakuza), Travis and Ezio (assassins) and countless thieves, outlaws, and generically bad people.

So, with all that, I think there's a good case to be made for 47. The only thing he lacks is popularity and, I guess, the backing of a Japanese studio (which ironically is what keeps him from being disconfirmed right now). He might be outprioritized by another character, but still, if the worst thing you can say about a character is that their odds are low because there's few slots left, then I think that character at least warrants some attention.

Chance: 14%
Want: 90%

I'm a fan of stealth games so of course I enjoy Hitman. Whether playing meticulously to be a ghost or just bull****ting around, I still have fun, which I think is the mark of a good game; there's no wrong way to play it. More importantly however, I think Hitman has earned itself a spot in this pantheon of gaming, so even if he doesn't get in this time around, I hope this at least creates some discussion of him, as I truly believe he makes sense.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Excitebiker prediction: 10.88%
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
724
Location
ZE BATH
Seth Everman the Assassin.

Chance: 1%

I really don't see this one happening. Rules i generally have for Guest characters to be seen as likely are:
-Nintendo connection, it's not a requirement, but seeing the likes of Simon, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Sonic and Ryu, i consider it something important.
-Really iconic, popular, or well known or have good timing like Joker did.
-Have global presence, if their franchise doesn't have releases in the major regions (Japan, United States, Most European countires) then they are not eligible in my eyes, simple as that.

For Agent Fourty Seven:
-His series has like 2 games on Nintendo platforms, the lastest one being on Switch via Cloud version (ew). He barely has any presence, so i guess that counts for something.
-The series is popular to have sold 15 Million, so it's not unpopular.........
-.............at least in the west, it's fair to say this series isn't popular in Japan, at all, and i think in the same way it hurt any character not named Crash, it hurts him as well.

The other reasons are Square Enix, not because Square Enix has better choices (Agent's games have become a relevant franchise unlike Chrono, have actual Nintendo presence unlike Nier, are more popular than TWEWY will ever be, doesn't have Disney tape like Sora, i think the only one that can prove to be a rival would be Lara Croft) but because well..................Hitman is not part of Square anymore, and i actually think have been part of a Japanese Company would have helped his case i this scenario, Western Companies tend to have a harder time negotiating with Japanese companies, and having to negotiate with an western character that is likely obscure to Japanese audiences, from a franchise whose company doesn't have any major interest in supporting Nintendo, and has no real fan push back from any particular supporting base (yeah yeah blah blah "mu Smash bubble" "muh Joker", but Joker came from a company already on board with Smash that was japanese btw)......not happening imo.

Want: 0%


Not seeing the appeal here. Sure i have never played his games so i have no issue with his games, i just don't think characters like this should be in Smash. For one, i don't like the idea of characters from games and franchises that have NO Nintendo presence (i mean Terry doesn't have that connection to Nintendo either, but at least a good chunk of SNK's old library is on Nintendo consoles, so support from them is a thing) and there are other game characters i would rather have.

No i'll will towards this guy, just no interest here.

NOMS:

Gunvolt X10
 

Yiptap

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 13, 2021
Messages
151
Agent 47

Abstain on chance

Want: 0%
Normally, when there's a character that I don't have much experience with, I abstain. However, I don't see Agent 47 working at all. Smash was able to get away with Snake and Joker, but Agent 47 is a whole other level of violent. I don't care about violence too much, but I'd prefer to keep the Mario mudering in the reveal trailers. And I don't dig Agent 47's design all that much. At the end of the day, Agent 47 doesn't really appeal to me.

Noms: Meat Boy x 10

Excitebiker: 6%
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
1,362
The Man With the Golden Gun

Chance: 20%

Agent 47 does tick a lot of boxes. Hitman is a very popular series with it having a lot of sequels and even a Hollywood movie. He has a recent game that is on the Switch and it sounds like he would have a unique moveset from what I've heard and from what GoodGrief said. As for IO Interactive, I barely knew anything about them so I looked it up and yeah I think it's safe to say that Agent 47 is their frontrunner.

As for him being a hitman, I don't think it's a big deal. People speculate about Kiryu a lot who is associated with the term Yakuza and we rated Ezio and no one brought up how him being an assassin could be an obstacle, from my memory at least. Besides, we have Ridley who straight up stabs people and Snake literally cracks his opponent's neck with his down throw so it's hard to imagine Agent 47 being much more brutal than that.

Now would Nintendo go for him? Possibly. He is a western character and doesn't have much fan demand so that lowers his chances but at the same time he has enough merits to the point where you could argue he is a darkhorse pick.

Want: 70%

I have a confession to make. I bought Hitman 2016 a while ago on PS4 and yet I haven't played it yet. Xenoblade 2 has been taking up a large portion of my free time and there are other things that have distracted me from the game. And yet I'm still confident enough to give Agent 47 this score because I am a sucker for stealth games. Metal Gear, Splinter Cell, and Manhunt are just a few stealth games that I've enjoyed and overall I get a kick out of either passing through a whole area without getting spotted, or taking down all the enemies silently. It is arguably one of the most rewarding genres and I would like to get more representation from the genre. From what I've seen of Agent 47, he would be another badass inclusion to the roster and Hitman certainly deserves to get something in Smash.

Prediction: Excitebiker - 7%

Noms: Bill Rizer x10
 

Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
1,690
Agent 47

Chance 15 - I think people are underrating Agent 47 here. Not like, majorly or anything but there's reasons he could be picked. Hitman is a pretty iconic series of video games. The series has some ties to Nintendo with Hitman 3 among a few others being on the switch, so there's some realistic reasons business wise as to why he could get picked. I can't see the fact he's a hitman being an issue either considering it wasn't one for Ezio or Kiryu when we rated them. I also can't see Hitman games being too violent being the reason he's left out. I mean, I've only played Hitman 3 so I could be wrong but so far none of the murder methods have been too gruesome. Even when you shoot people you don't get blood everywhere. The main 2 reasons I'm low are because first, there's only 2(maybe 3?) spots left but likely only 1 of those at best are going to a western character. The other reason is that I'm not sure Sakurai would want him because it would be pretty hard to do Hitman justice through a game like Smash. You can't really silently assassinate characters in Smash like you can in Hitman, and while you could just give him all his various weapons and call it good enough(which would be more than acceptable imo), with so much of the gameplay form the series revolving around killing people when they don't expect it, there's just a lot of stuff it feels like you wouldn't be able to do, such as silently take someone out and disguise as them. I suppose you could just make it a cosmetic thing only or make him like Kirby but eh, idk if either are possible with how it's been mentioned before that it takes awhile to get all the Kirby costumes in the game. If that bothers Sakurai then I dont' think he has much of a chance but who knows what he might think of to make it work or if he was to select Agent 47

Want 60 - Still playing through Hitman 3. I like the game so far. And I wouldn't object to seeing Agent 47 join Smash. Overall though a lot of my want score depends on how they make him work in the game.

Predictions:
Excitebiker - 10%

Noms:
Bioshock Protagonist x10
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
1,362
Agent 47

Abstain on chance

Want: 0%
Normally, when there's a character that I don't have much experience with, I abstain. However, I don't see Agent 47 working at all. Smash was able to get away with Snake and Joker, but Agent 47 is a whole other level of violent. I don't care about violence too much, but I'd prefer to keep the Mario mudering in the reveal trailers. And I don't dig Agent 47's design all that much. At the end of the day, Agent 47 doesn't really appeal to me.
I am not trying to object to your want score itself (It is subjective after all), but I disagree with Agent 47 being on another level of violence. Like I mentioned in my post Snake cracks peoples' necks in his down throw and Joker has a gun, and guess what Agent 47 wouldn't be any more violent than that to work in Smash. Look at GoodGrief's post. Agent 47 has straight up killed someone with a big fish and he can do other things like use claymores and he can use fiber wire which I think is used to strangle people but I don't think that is much more violent than cracking necks.

So I do think he would work in Smash while keeping true to his nature as a hitman.
 

Yiptap

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 13, 2021
Messages
151
I am not trying to object to your want score itself (It is subjective after all), but I disagree with Agent 47 being on another level of violence. Like I mentioned in my post Snake cracks peoples' necks in his down throw and Joker has a gun, and guess what Agent 47 wouldn't be any more violent than that to work in Smash. Look at GoodGrief's post. Agent 47 has straight up killed someone with a big fish and he can do other things like use claymores and he can use fiber wire which I think is used to strangle people but I don't think that is much more violent than cracking necks.

So I do think he would work in Smash while keeping true to his nature as a hitman.
Now that I think about it, Agent 47 isn't as violent as I originally thought. Still keeping my want score as it is, but you do make a good point there.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,249
Beatrice (Umineko) x325
Concept: Disgaea rep x320
Rallen (Spectrobes) x295
Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x250
Concept: Skullgirls rep x249

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Tetra x225
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Trevor Philips x210
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x205

200 - 151

Ryza (Atelier) x200
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x191
Concept: From Software rep x185
Estelle Bright x185
Senator Armstrong x185
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x152

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Sackboy x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Bill Rizer x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
[Rerate] Louie x110
Fulgore x107
Meat Boy x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
[Rerate] Officer Howard x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Corvo Attano x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Garchomp x60
Gunvolt x60
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Todd Snap x55

50 - 25

Rean Schwarzer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Tails x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
[Rerate] Reimu x5
Firebrand x1

Beatrice passes Disgaea rep and takes first place. All it took was two measly days... Also, Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo defeats Skullgirls rep and earns himself sixth place.

Carmen Sandiego and Trevor Philips steal 200 noms.

Stage: Bowser's Castle conquers 150 noms.

Meat Boy hops past 100 noms.

Todd Snap has more than 50 noms in frame.

Today's new concept is Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku, with 25 noms.

L Lyncario I discussed your concept with the team and it was decided that while the concept itself is fair to discuss, the part about the vtubers doesn't have much connection to it and so it was removed. If that's not acceptable to you then please say so and you'll get your 25 extra noms back.
 

Pillow

Smash Ace
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
980
Location
Los Angeles
Agent 47
Chance - 3%
So to get it out of the way, Hitman isn't an unknown series. It's had several titles now and even a bad Hollywood movie. I'm just not seeing it though. He doesn't really fit Smash's style, so to speak (which isn't to say his games are too violent or anything) and he's still not on the same level as the other gaming titans we've had as 3rd party characters. He's also Western and isn't named Crash Bandicoot or Master Chief, which is a big thing against him. Not an impossible pick I guess.

Want - 10%
10 points for being nicely dressed, 0 points for everything else. This character just doesn't interest me much.

Noms
xMax FromSoft
 
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Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
717
Location
Hell
Today's new concept is Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku, with 25 noms.

L Lyncario I discussed your concept with the team and it was decided that while the concept itself is fair to discuss, the part about the vtubers doesn't have much connection to it and so it was removed. If that's not acceptable to you then please say so and you'll get your 25 extra noms back.
Ok, I'm more than fine with this. To be honest, I'm surprised I'm able to get away with it to begin with.
 
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TerminatorLOL

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 3, 2015
Messages
252
Agent 47

Chance 5%
I think that Hitman games have enough goofness in them that could fit in Smash. Exploding Rubber Duckies, Homing Thrown Briefcases, and if you count easter eggs he can fly in a flamingo suit or surf on dolphins.

But despite being a reasonably popular series, I have my doubts that 47 has caught the eye of Nintendo or Sakurai.

Want 90%
Love the Hitman games, been a long time fan. I even already have a couple Mii fighters of 47 right now (the business suit costume set with the red tie is perfect for him).
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
7,713
Location
Mars
AGENT 47

CHANCE - 1.5%

Hitman is pretty damn popular, it's definitely significant enough to have "earned" a presence in Smash at least... that's about it. I don't really know how big it is in Japan so I'm really only speaking on this from a western perspective, too. But yeah, Hitman is really popular but just doesn't strike me as a series that would be on the radar for Smash. That sounds really arbitrary, and it is, but there's been no reason for me to consider otherwise as it stands. There are plenty of other series that I believe would be in the cards way before Agent 47 entered the conversation.

I could see this being a really interesting sleeper pick, but I'm having trouble imagining any situation where Nintendo would decide this is the go-to character / series to put into Smash. Just not a lot of incentive here.

WANT - ABSTAIN
My experience with Hitman is very limited. By default I'd want to say I don't really want him and I don't think Hitman fits into Smash all that well. But the more I've learned about the series the more I do find the idea charming and fun in its own right, so I don't feel right giving it a firm rating one way or the other.

Excitebiker - 1.75%
Bimmy and Jimmy x5
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
95
how did my double dip joke get so many likes I don't understand

"I will leave you to prepare." (Agent 47)
Chance: 3%

Well, Hitman's pretty popular in the West, but we've all seen firsthand how much that's worth. In Japan is another matter entirely, and I think we're getting a Japan-oriented character next. Agent 47 also has a ton of competition from the stealth genre.

On the other hand, he does have both recency and Nintendo history on his side - Hitman 3 recently released on the Switch, and way before that we had Silent Assassin on the GameCube. That said, with only 2 slots left in FP2 and Nintendo under quite a bit of pressure, I highly doubt they'll go for someone like 47.

Want: 30%
By stealth game standards, Hitman is wacky. What other game would let you kill people by dropping a giant fish on them, or throw newspapers at them to knock them out?

OK, but in all seriousness, my connection to Hitman is limited to the free first mission of the first Hitman reboot, and playthrough videos. While I think the franchise is cool, Agent 47 is another one of those characters that I don't think could fit in Smash. That said, I'd be fine if he got in, based solely on the creativeness the Hitman series has shown in its kills (especially in the reboots).

Noms: Corvo Attano x10
Speaking of stealth game characters...
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
6,323
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Welcome back Agent 47...

Chance: 4.7%

I'm looking into it, but cannot find any sales data on Japan for the Hitman series. I've heard it's decently popular over there although no where near the levels it recieves over here in the west.

Best I can find is that Hitman usually cracks the top ten in the charts on it's week of release, and considering it's released up against Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee and Dragon Quest in it's opening weeks, there's a fair bit of difference in sales between those series and Hitman. Anyway, for whatever reason Hitman was one of the first games Nintendo decided they wanted to use the Cloud gaming system for, alongside Control and Resident Evil 7(in Japan).
That gives Hitman, IMO, a slight edge over other typically non-Nintendo fare.

Anyway on to Hitman as a game: Hitman is an incredible/incredibly silly stealth game in which you undertake missions to take out a target...nearly always a horrible, despicable target who causes pain and suffering to those around them. How many innocents get caught up in the crossfire is upto you the player, but the games do punish you with penalties for killing non-targets and civilians.

Agent 47 is always incredibly serious and stern looking, even when dressed up as a clown and throwing fish at people to finish them. Imagine Batman's level of stoicness and how comical he can be when stupid stuff happens to him, and then multiply it ten fold. That's Agent 47.

It's a game in which you can witness a chef and a security guard have a face to face lengthy conversation, wait for the guard to leave, knock the chef out(or kill him if you prefer), hide the body, put on his clothes and walk up to the security guard he was previously talking to and have said guard not notice the chef has grown two feet, is now completely bald, has lost weight, had a shave and isn't as much of a narcassistic 'artiste' as he was two minutes ago.

It's incredibly silly, and whilst Agent 47's main weaponry might be his garotte wire(which is bad, but Snake snaps necks so...same difference?) and his trademark pistols, that's not how most people play Hitman in my experience.

For the love of god, if you get the chance to play a demo of Hitman, do give it a go. It's as wacky an experience as you wish to make it, and I think Agent 47 is ironically less violent than many other assassin characters we've discussed before such as Travis Touchdown, Ezio, etc.

Want: 90%

Yeah, okay. I'm not going to pretend I think Agent 47 has a real hope, and I'm not even sure how exactly he'd translate to Smash since stealth...well it just doesn't work that well in a platform fighter(Snake barely stealths in Smash), and stealing people's clothes to use as disguises is a big aspect of the games which wouldn't work...

...but there's very few third party series I enjoy more than the Hitman series.

I'm absolutely dreadful at them, but that's actually part of the charm of the games, since you can screw up at any point by doing something silly. I once successfully infiltrated an apartment building that was taken over, disguised myself as a security guard and caught someone smoking right next to a no-smoking sign.
Obviously I knocked him out to teach him a lesson, but got caught dragging his unconcious body by a fellow guard and now I'm suddenly in an insane shoot out...all because I felt compelled to keep the no smoking rule in place and do so non-lethally.

For the love of god, play some of this series. It's a riot.

I'd love to see how Sakurai would tackle something like this, I genuinely think it'd be incredibly interesting to see.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd X 10
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Premium
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
234
Agent 47
Abstaining. Brain doesn't work today.

Predictions
Excitebiker: 3.2%

Nominations
Rallen x5
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
336
Agent 47:
Chance: 2%
It looks like the franchise has either changed hands a few times or is owned by multiple companies. Either way, this sounds like a negotiations nightmare. Shame, because he probably has a pretty good moveset potential.


Want: Abstain
All I really know about this guy is what he looks like. I'd have no reaction if he got in.

Noms: LoL rep x5
 

Flyboy

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
4,666
Location
Dayton, OH
Agent 47
Chance:
7%
Hitman games have been on Nintendo, which isn't always the number one thing you should look for but is still nice to know. Hitman 3 being on Cloud Gaming for Switch is awesome and it has gotten great reviews as a fun way to play it in your home over Wi-Fi. There are no double dip concerns with Agent 47, and he's definitely an iconic character. However, I don't think he will be making it into the battle. We are far past Agent 47's glory days, even if the latest games have been big critical successes, and while I don't at all think he's impossible I really don't have enough reason to believe that he has the company ties Nintendo is looking for or the fan favorite aspect. I wouldn't mind being surprised, but as the pass comes to a close it's hard to see a future where Nintendo goes for him, unless the Cloud Version of Hitman 3 was that big of a deal in the making.

Want: 70%
When it comes to characters I love to see in Smash, I look for three things: iconic and influential status, interesting or unusual moveset potential, or off-the-wall entertainment. Well, despite not having an extensive history with the series, Agent 47 is a character who embodies all three things. Yes, his series is about stealth, kills, and combat, but it's about creativity in how you accomplish missions and that can lead to some wacky, strange weapons to go along with a traditional hitman's kit. As for being iconic, well, absolutely! The suit, the bald head, the black gloves, the red tie...it's a look that immediately sticks out and it shocks me that he's not seen as recognizable by some people here it seems. I remember him plastered all over magazine advertisements, and the new Hitman games were smash successes, especially 2 and 3. In the end, I may not have played many Hitman games, but the dude checks all the boxes and even has several movies based on him (though of course they're not exactly good...). I think a serious-yet-crazy moveset and a character who is super recognizable is enough for me to give it a big thumbs up.

By the way, anyone who wants to do some extra research - check out GoodGrief's excellent support thread for the character! I'm sure it will sway some of you.

Nominations: Beatrice x10
 
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BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
95
how did my double dip joke get so many likes I don't understand
Abstaining. I actually had a write-up for Agent 47, but for some reason the draft just disappeared, and I'm too lazy to redo it. Sorry.

Noms: Corvo Attano x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
9,249
how did my double dip joke get so many likes I don't understand
Abstaining. I actually had a write-up for Agent 47, but for some reason the draft just disappeared, and I'm too lazy to redo it. Sorry.

Noms: Corvo Attano x5
It didn't disappear, you posted it.
how did my double dip joke get so many likes I don't understand

"I will leave you to prepare." (Agent 47)
Chance: 3%

Well, Hitman's pretty popular in the West, but we've all seen firsthand how much that's worth. In Japan is another matter entirely, and I think we're getting a Japan-oriented character next. Agent 47 also has a ton of competition from the stealth genre.

On the other hand, he does have both recency and Nintendo history on his side - Hitman 3 recently released on the Switch, and way before that we had Silent Assassin on the GameCube. That said, with only 2 slots left in FP2 and Nintendo under quite a bit of pressure, I highly doubt they'll go for someone like 47.

Want: 30%
By stealth game standards, Hitman is wacky. What other game would let you kill people by dropping a giant fish on them, or throw newspapers at them to knock them out?

OK, but in all seriousness, my connection to Hitman is limited to the free first mission of the first Hitman reboot, and playthrough videos. While I think the franchise is cool, Agent 47 is another one of those characters that I don't think could fit in Smash. That said, I'd be fine if he got in, based solely on the creativeness the Hitman series has shown in its kills (especially in the reboots).

Noms: Corvo Attano x10
Speaking of stealth game characters...
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,185
I think we're getting a Japan-oriented character next
As if the last two weren't? xP

I think we'd only get one if it was like 2019 where they were paired with the Western-oriented Banjo-Kazooie. I think a Japan-centric character will finish off the pass but E3 will definitely be more Western. E3 typically has either Western or worldwide choices (Pac Man, Steve, Banjo-Kazooie, Mega Man, Ryu, Ridley, etc)
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
58,285
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Smh we should have done this a few days ago to time with Kamen Rider's 50th anniversary, y'all better watch Ryuki when it comes to the US for free to make up for it. Or Kuuga that's out now. Or gets dragged offstage

Chance: 1% Excitebiker's a bit like Ayumi Tachibana in that most, if not all of the popularity behind it, is solely because Sakurai once considered making one playable in Melee, though unlike Ayumi, Excitebiker's not only gotten a worldwide release decades ago, it's also pretty beloved, having gotten a few sequels and a buttload of cameos including the 3DS' music player and Mario Kart 8. However, while Excite Bike is certainly a rather wellknown NES classic, I feel that it makes much more sense to include it as a base game character as people wouldn't exactly pop off for a character who's series hasn't gotten a new game since 2009 and has very little fan demand overall. There's also the matter of Sakurai's reason of shooting down a biker character in the past, they'd feel too awkward if constantly on the bike for jumps and everything, I get the feeling that if Sakurai figured out a solution to this, we'd already have the character in the game

Want: 40% Honestly, I'm very curious as to how a fighter who's on a motorcycle at all times would work, though I kind of imagine this video but with a hell of a lot more tricks, reverse wheelie that act like a roundhouse kick and an Akira slide


Estelle Bright x10
 

BowserKing

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
820
Location
winnipeg
Excitebiker

Chance: 10%. Given it’s history with Nintendo, Excitebiker’s chance is quite decent, even compared to most retro fighters. While it was a spirit in Smash (and was an assist back in Brawl), spirits can be promoted to playable. Also Excitebiker got a stage in Mario Kart, helping it’s odds a slight bit.

Want: 65%. Excitebiker would be fun to play as, and I can see it, Wario, Bowser Jr and Sonic race each other in a free for all. I can also predict that Excitebiker’s Classic Mode as that race fight other fast characters. Overall, Excitebiker would make a good Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Worms (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser
 

Sari

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,116
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Excitebiker

Chance: 1%
He was considered for Melee so he's got that going for him. Ultimate also has yet to get a true retro Nintendo rep, which has been a thing ever since Melee. With that in mind I can see Mach Rider easily being the next retro rep, but I feel like we won't be getting on this time around. There are just so many other viable characters for DLC that are way more popular and from upcoming and recent games. I just feel that if we were to get Excitebiker, it would've been in the base game.

Want: 40%
I played a bit of the original Excitebiker via NSO online. It's a fun little game that just falls under the definition of the word classic. As an actual fighter, I feel like there is a fair amount of potential in a character who fights almost exclusively on their bike. With that said though, I feel like I would much prefer getting this in the base game. Excitebiker taking up one of the only two remaining slots would feel weird to me. Also when it comes to retro Nintendo bike characters, I think I would prefer Mach Rider.

-----

Worms chance prediction: 2.09%

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x10
 

Pillow

Smash Ace
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
980
Location
Los Angeles
Excitebiker

Chance - 1%
The trend for Nintendo DLC characters is that they try to promote new games or IP's. Excitebike is anything but new. If this were a few years ago before the base game came out, this chance rating would be significantly higher, but I think Biker's missed his opportunity for this game. I think Excitebike still has opportunity to get into Smash, but not as DLC in Ultimate.

Want - 60%
I'm wholly unfamiliar with his games, but it's hard not to be intrigued by the potential of his moveset. We do have a mounted fighter in Smash already through Bowser Jr. so we know the concept is functional, and Excitebiker's flashiness and mobility comparison to Bowser Jr just sounds like he'd be an absolute blast to play. So yeah, totally down for him.

Noms:
Fromsoft x Max
 
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Perkilator

Smash Hero
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
5,645
Location
San Clemente, CA (assuming it's not hell)
What an exciting day today!

Chance: 5%

Only real chance I see for him is if that bonus fighter rumor comes to fruition. Otherwise, he seems more like a character who'd be the bonus fighter for before Vol. 1, instead of the Plant

Want: 80%
I don't massively want him or anything, but a fighter on a motorcycle? Heck yeah, sign me up!

Worms: 5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
1,185
Excitebiker

Chance: 1% -
It's a possibility but I'm not putting any bets on this. The two main points for this character are that Sakurai considered him for Melee and that we haven't gotten our obligatory NES retro choice yet for Ultimate. The latter has been basically a Smash tradition since Melee, so I'm surprised. Still, this isn't the kind of character that screams "DLC!", Nintendo usually saves these for bigger first parties and third parties, if we were getting Excitebiker he would've been a base game choice. We have yet to see one of these retro characters as DLC in any form. Though considering Nintendo loves rereleasing the original, Excitebike never quite loses its' relevance, and often cameos in other games, so their prospects for a future Smash game aren't looking too bad.

Want: 20% - Not a bad choice by any means but not a choice I'm too interested in. It's a fun little game and I did really enjoy playing other Excite series games with a friend of mine. Though I never developed a big attachment to the franchise, and having a character like this take up one of the final slots would be kinda disappointing in my eyes. Now, base game Smash 6? Not a problem! But for final Ultimate DLC I'm just not feeling it. That and I'm sick of Excitebike getting picked every time it comes up as a choice in Mario Kart 8 online, I don't get people's obsession with that track...


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Worms - 1.92% - Definitely has recency on its' side but not a franchise Nintendo has shown clear interest in, so I'm not expecting high ratings.
 

Golden Icarus

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
930
Location
St. Louis, Missouri
Excitebiker
Chance: 7%


Most of us are probably expecting third parties or promotional Nintendo characters to close out this pass. A “retro” Nintendo rep admittedly feels way more like a base game inclusion, and we have good reason to think that.

The thing is, we didn’t get a base game retro character for Ultimate. At the very least, we didn’t get one in the same vein as Ice Climbers, Pit, or Duck Hunt. It’s been a consistent trend for Smash sequels to add obscure Nintendo characters from the NES, yet Ultimate never got one. It’s pretty easy to just shrug it off, as our token retro rep was likely just low priority and Ultimate only had room for a few newcomers. Still, with how much Sakurai loves adding these kinds of characters, I can’t help but feel slightly suspicious. Maybe he had one in mind that just didn’t quite make the cut for the base game? If that happens to be the case, I wouldn’t be that surprised if we suddenly got our retro rep in Fighters Pass 2.

But why Excitebiker specifically? Well, the Excite series is actually surprisingly important to Nintendo. Despite “the Excitebiker” being a retro character, the Excite series has gotten fairly consistent and successful releases from the N64 to the Wii. It even outsells F-Zero, funny enough. We also got an Excitebike track in Mario Kart 8. Clearly it’s a recognizable series that Nintendo definitely cares about. He doesn’t need to be a “retro rep.” He’s from an important series that has had consistent releases, kind of like Rhythm Heaven (a series that Excite also outsells btw).

He’s one of those characters where if he were added, most people would be like “oh yeah that makes sense.” He’s from an important series that continues to be acknowledged by Nintendo, he’s recognizable, he’d have a wildly unique moveset, he was considered by Sakurai in the past...he low key kind of has everything going for him. It’s just a matter of priority really.

Want: 100%

Yeah I’ve always loved this idea. The only “WTF surprise character” we’ve gotten in Ultimate is Piranha Plant and I definitely think that we have room for another. I love when Sakurai pulls out obscure, yet iconic characters from Nintendo’s past and makes them playable and Excitebiker is one of the best options in my opinion. I’d love to see how he would play.

Bill Rizer x10
 
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waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,341
Location
Duwang
Hypebiker
Chance: 2%
Excitebike is possibly the last hugely iconic first-party NES game left not represented on the roster. While it is generally known as a 8-bit retro title, it got a sequel on the N64 as well as well as multiple succesors on the Wii. While it hasn't gotten a new game since, the IP has been kept alive through cameos and rereleases of the original game. You certainly can't say Nintendo has forgotten about it. Though it was two decades ago, Excitebiker was also considered for Melee by Sakurai. If the trend of adding wacky first-party retro characters continued, the biker would likely be next in line... if that trend continued. Ultimate seems to have broken it after the base game failed to include one, as well as the first wave of DLC I'm not seeing that change with Vol 2. A character like Excitebiker, that would mainly appeal to the core Nintendo crowd could be considered a risky sell and with two spots left, they would likely lose priority to some bigger first or third-party character. Sakurai may also have trouble creating a bike-based moveset and while I do believe he could pull it off, he may want to save a character like this for a future installment.

Want: 15%
I played the NES game for about 10 minutes and that's all the connection I have. The concept is certainly interesting and not something I'm opposed towards. Also can't say no to another new first-party IP repped. But yeah, this isn't one of my choices for the final DLC characters and having them be a base game pick for the next Smash installment would be more fitting. Also as far as retro Nintendo bikers go, many would argue Mach Rider is the cooler choice which I won't disagree with.

Worms: 6.76%
Skullgirls rep x10
 
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