Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate Carmen Sandiego xAll

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining. Worms is fun, but I can't in all fairness rate them.

Noms:
I'm gonna do a sneaky thing...
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
and throw a new contender in the ring!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstaining. Worms is fun, but I can't in all fairness rate them.

Noms:
I'm gonna do a sneaky thing...
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
and throw a new contender in the ring!

Was that a FNAF reference?

 

[Lionfranky]

Worm

Chance: 5%

It's surprisingly popular series with long history. What's even more surprising is lack of demand. You would think cartoonish art style would attract many fans. It's still mystery that Team Fortress 2 gets so vocal support, but not Worms. And Worms series have games on Nintendo to boot. With only two slots left, I doubt Worms will make in. Lack of fan demand doesn't help. Other than Japan factor, I think Worms have every criteria checked out. Still, I doubt it's on Nintendo's radar.

Want: 90%

I have fond memory of playing older title with my friend. The wacky weapon mayhem really brings memory. Worms definitely fit Smash. It has tons of moveset potential to boot. Sheep bomb was it? And there is Holy hand grenade. There are so many options to choose.

Nom: Ryza x 10

 

[Inue Houji]

Worms
Chance: 3%
So Worms is a relatively small franchise... or so I thought. Apparently it has sold over 70 million copies. I was initially going to give it a lower rating, but the sales numbers are undeniable. For some reason though, I have little faith in Worms. It's not really rooted in anything tangible, it's just a feeling I have. It just doesn't seem like the kind of franchise that would get in Smash to me.

Want: 50%
I've played a few of them, like Armageddon and the PS2 3D game. They're fun games, and great with friends, but it's not really close to my heart. Their moveset has a lot of options, though the most fun ones would probably have to be quite a bit weaker than in their games. One point that holds them back for me is that there's no established character they could use, but I guess they can put something together from the various voice lines.
Overall, I would be pleased, but not ecstatic.

Predictions
Zagreus: 0.9%

Nominations
Rallen x10

 

[DaUsername]

Abstain.
Z prediction: 1%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Pillow]

Worms Abstain

Xmax Fromsoft

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Excitebiker
3.01% Chance - 55.59% Want
Excitebiker joins the sparkling new Less Likely Than Goku list. But on want he actually did pretty well. Even people who gave him low scores said they'd be alright with him, with unfamiliarity with the NES game and a preference for Mach Rider being cited as the reasons rather than indifference or dislike.
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji with 3.20%

...that's it. We only rated one character in the last 7 days. Maybe we should pick up the pace a bit?

Spoiler: Extra noms reminder

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 44
Mr. MR 75
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

 

[Jomosensual]

Calcs

Excitebiker
3.01% Chance - 55.59% Want
Excitebiker joins the sparkling new Less Likely Than Goku list. But on want he actually did pretty well. Even people who gave him low scores said they'd be alright with him, with unfamiliarity with the NES game and a preference for Mach Rider being cited as the reasons rather than indifference or dislike.
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji with 3.20%

...that's it. We only rated one character in the last 7 days. Maybe we should pick up the pace a bit?

Spoiler: Extra noms reminder

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 107
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji 44
Mr. MR 75
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

Wow, didnt even notice we slowed down that much.

 

[Perkilator]

Wow, didnt even notice we slowed down that much.

I feel like the whole site's slowed down that much. The Creates thread I made is dead as a doornail, only one user submitted anything.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I’ll end the day around midnight, just in case anyone wants to jump in last second.

 

[Commander_Alph]

abstain

Noms: Disgaea rep x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over Rate Zagreus predict Concept: Curly as Quote’s Echo/Costume

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Flame Feet

Chance: HAHAHAHAHAHA no. 0% Supergiant may have been a rather noteworthy name in the indie scene before Hades and the game is a highly praised masterpiece, but Hades didn't blow up until after the second pass was finalized, Zag would be extremely lucky to get even a Mii hat at this point and time.

Want: 100% Holy ****, Hades is a ****ing phenomenal game that everyone should at least try for half an hour. The gameplay's addicting as hell and the story keeps pushing you to keeo playing more! Sorry Curse of the Moon 2, but this was easily the best game of 2020. Zag would be a ****ing treat to play as, with a wide arsenal available to him and the potential of implementing the game's Boon system easily standing out from most potential characters. I absolutely love this game and just an acknowledgement would get me excited

Estelle Bright x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Zagreus

Chance 0 - Yeah, not possible. Hades was a successful game, sure. Doesn't change the fact that the character was way too late to make it into FP2. If there's a 3rd pass he's likely too late for that one as well. Hades wasn't developed by someone who would be approached by Nintendo for a character that wasn't released yet. Only possibilities for someone like that would be Nintendo themselves or someone like Sony. I'm not sure a character from September 2020 would be able to make it in regardless when the pass was decided back in late 2019 though anyways.

Want 40 - I don't really care. Zag is competition for one of my most wanted in The Knight so that knocks it a little. It being pretty popular is a solid start. Would like to see if Hades has more staying power first before we take them over other indie characters first though. For whoever it is that breaks the barrier down, I'd much rather it be someone with more staying power.

Predictions:
Curley as Quote's echo - 1%

Noms:
Bioshock Protag x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Zagreus

Chance: 0% - Yeah, he's not happening... While Nintendo has heavily promoted his game, he was simply too late to make the cut. His game isn't even a year old yet, and FP2 was finished being decided on before his game was even revealed. Now, a Mii Costume could be plausible, given that Mii Costumes are shown to be a recent affair via Travis. But a playable fighter is simply out of the question. And with a third pass basically deconfirmed, things are completely bleak for him.

Want: 0% - Hear me out... I'll start with the positives. He's on a Nintendo system and I do find his art style very intriguing! I love Greek mythology, and I think that, unlike the more anime approach Kid Icarus took with Uprising, that Hades stuck to an art style that more closely resembles Classical Greek imagery, which is definitely more fitting! His moveset has a lot to offer, too!
Now, why am I giving him a 0? Simple, his game hasn't even existed a year yet. I firmly believe that a franchise should at least prove its' longevity and place in history before being considered for Smash inclusion. Bigger and more significant franchises and characters had to wait several years to get into Smash, while Zagreus would be getting in within a matter of months. I'm not doubting his game's potential, but I want to see how he plays out first. I want to see if his game stays in people's minds or simply fades to the wayside. There are some who are worried that this, being the last Smash game for a long time most likely, are afraid he'll "miss the boat! D:" and not be relevant in time for Smash 6. I also see this commonly cited with other recent Nintendo and related IPs such as Astral Chain, Ring Fit, and Ninjala. Thing is, a franchise shouldn't be auto given a slot just because it's the newest IP and Nintendo likes it (not doubting what those franchises bring of course). And if they're as deserving of a Smash slot as people think, then they don't have to worry about "missing the boat". If they're this important, then they'll stick around for the long haul and Nintendo will consider them, whether it be through promotion or fan demand. Same applies to Zagreus. If Hades becomes iconic and sticks around in a way Undertale or Cuphead did then this will not be a problem for him, he'll stay relevant and Nintendo may consider him for the next game. And if he sticks around for the next 5-6 years then this score will DEFINITELY go up! This is really only a problem for rotating casts/rotating relevance series like Pokemon, FE, and Xenoblade. I just don't think that now is his time. He'd also be indie competition for Quote, one of my most wanted.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x5
Captain Charlie x5

Predictions:
Curly as Quote's echo - 2.85%

 

[TheThingamajigRayman]

Abstain. Just....okay?

Noms: Sackboy x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Zagreus
Chance: 0.5%
While Hades is the most critically acclaimed indie-game in a while, the game just released far too late to have any impact on Volume 2. The pass had been worked on for well over a year when the game officially came out. If a third pass is on the table the I guess Zagreus becomes possible but it would still be a matter of timing and competition from other indies to qualify for a roster spot.

Want: This is Hollow Knight competition but since I haven't played Hades yet and I keep hearing about how amazing it is I'll abstain here.

Curly: 0.85%
Skullgirls rep x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Zagreus

Chance: 0%
It really wouldn’t make sense to give him anything else. No matter how fantastic Hades is, the game released way after Fighters Pass 2 was finalized. That alone kind of makes him impossible. Additionally, there is a very long list of indie games that people want in Smash, and while Hades might be a contender in the future, it still has a large gallery of games to compete with. Shovel Knight, Celeste, Undertale, Hollow Night, Cuphead, Goose Game, Among Us, Fall Guys. Even for a hypothetical FP3 or FP4, Hades would still have a lot to compete with.

Want: 30%
I loved Hades, just like anyone else who’s played it. It’s super addicting and has a fantastic art style and story. Zagreus could have an extremely interesting moveset and would be a welcomed addition to Smash...for the most part. Yeah if we’re gonna start adding indie characters, I’d much prefer to see my boy Shovel Knight, or even funny skeleton man. Hades isn’t that high on the list for me. Also, and this is very nitpicky, but the old man inside of me is kind of tired of seeing so many recent characters. Min Min, Pyra, Joker, Byleth. We’ve gotten a lot of new faces, and while that’s great and all, I generally prefer characters who hold important legacies and who have stood the test of time. It’s hard to feel much of a connection with Zagreus when he’s only existed in my life for less than a year.

Noms: Bill Rizer x10

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining. Hades appeals to the Hollow Knight fan in me, but because I know next to nothing about it otherwise I'll withhold judgement. Also, I'd still rather have the Knight.

Noms: Corvo Attano x5

 

[fogbadge]

abstain and com grunty x5

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Hades mood:

Spoiler: Hades Music

 

[Sari]

Zagreus

Chance: 0%
Fighters Pass 2 was finalized sometime before November 2019. Hades released in September 2020. There's really nothing else to say for the chances other than that Hades released way too late to be considered. I know that there was a beta for the game in late 2018, but it was an Epic Games Store exclusive at the time. I'm pretty sure Nintendo was already eyeing up their FP2 choices instead of thinking about a game that hadn't even gotten its footing yet. I could maybe see a mii costume happening since those don't seem to be planned out as far in advance. But as a character? Yeah no way. Even if we were to get a FP3, it'd probably be too late for that.

Want: Abstain
I've had Hades on Switch ever since Christmas. Probably because I've been busy with a lot of other games, I haven't even bothered to try it out yet. It does look like a fun game that I would really like once I got into it. However in general, I'm not a fan of third parties from super recent series getting a full-on character. Either way, I'm going to abstain since I'm not too familiar with the Hades game itself.

-----

Curly as an alt/echo chance prediction: 0.90%

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x10

 

[Lyncario]

Zargeus, prince of the underworld

Chances: 0%

Yeah, he's not making it in as a playable fighter, his game came out way too late for him to hope to get a chance, because while the game technicaly came out in late 2018, the full version only came out in 2020, well after the second fighter pass was already fully decided. Which is too bad, because otherwise, he would have had a relatively decent shot, with Hades being a popular game, but also very criticaly aclaimed, on top of the Nintendo Switch version being one of the primary version of the game, to the point where it's getting a physical release. One more thing, the fact that Zargreus, and by extansion, the characters of his game are 4th party characters in the public domain due to being greek mythology wouldn't be a problem at all, considering that Kid Icarus also uses greek mythology and well, we have 2 characters + 1 echo from Kid Icarus, and while neither Pit, Dark Pit, or Palutena are directly a character fro mgreek mythology (even if Pit is inspired by Icarus, and Palutena is heavily inspired by Athena), the most requested characters of the series, Hades and Medusa, are both also directly named after their mythology counterparts, and just like them, Zargreus is different enough from his origin to stand out a lot and to be eligible. But alas, his game came out too late for him to be a contender, which makes me relate to Zargreus on that regard.

Edited Want: 85%

I haven't played Hades yet (I have bough the game, I just need to download it on my pc), but the game looks honestly incredible, and Zargreus looks like he could have an extremly sick moveset. Fruthermore, the game is about greek mythology, and I love greek mythology, to the point where I roleplay myself as being the son/descedant of a greek godess, which furthermore is a godess of hell, which just makes me like Zargreus even more, even if I have yet to play his game and discover who he is, which I should really do soon, considering how much I already like him. I should really play Hades soon. But yeah, I aleready think that Zargreus would be absolutely sick to play as in Smash, so he gets a good score from me despite having yet to play his game.

So I downloaded Hades on my pc and played it for 4 hours, and now I can definitively say that I like the game a lot. The cast is nice, the game is beautifull, the music is good, Tartarus would make a good stage, and you can pet Cerberus, which makes the game a 10/10. Also a lot of weapons and abilities, which would really give Zargreus a very fun moveset.

Prediction

Curly as Quote's echo/alt: 1.4%

Nominaitons

Virtual idols like Miku x10

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. Never played Hades.

Curly: 1.5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[BowserKing]

Zargeus

Chance: 2%. His game is very popular and that would make it seem likely that he would show up. But due to the second fighter’s pass being mostly completed, his chance became quite low. He could still show up as a Mii Costume or spirit however.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him face off against Pit, Dark Pit and Palutena in a free for all. Overall, Zargeus would make a decent Smash Brosnan Rep.

Prediction: Curly (5%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp and 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[DanganZilla5]

I wanted to make a God of War joke but then realized Zagreus wasn't in those games so no joke for today

Chance: 0%

Technically Hades has been around since 2018 but at that time it was only in early access and it was not on Nintendo until the full release in September 2020. I can't really add much that hasn't already been said. I highly doubt that Nintendo would choose Hades as it was unproven at the time this pass was decided and it's not like it's attached to a bigger franchise or anything. Unless if Nintendo had the magic foresight to see that the game was going to be successful, I see no path for Zagreus in this game. Usually I tend to avoid zeroes but this seems cut and dry to me.

Want: Abstain

It's yet another game in my backlog. Hades looks cool but I am not able to give a full opinion at this time.

Prediction - Curly - 6%

Noms: Bill Rizer x15

 

[Pillow]

Zagreus
Chance - 0%
Indie game from 2020. C'mon what else has to be said here?

Want - 90%
Which is a shame because his game was fantastic. He's also just a super cool character. His design is very sleek, he has tons of stuff to draw from his game for his moveset, there's just a lot to like here. I'm shaving off a few points just because I do feel that title and prestige should mean something for 3rd parties in Smash, and Zagreus doesn't even come close to that status, but he's just so badass I can only care so much about that.

Noms:
xmax Fromsoft

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not Hades apparently

Chance: 0%
Hades came out in Early Access in 2018. I distinctly remember its announcement at the Game Awards, where I didn't really care. Fast forward to two years later, Hades comes out as a full release. It would receive positive reviews, sell one million copies, and get tons of nominations (including one for Game of the Year at TGA).

For all intents and purposes Zagreus can't possibly be a fighter in this Pass. The game came out in 2018, sure, but like Among Us, nobody gave two ****s about it until late 2020. When this Pass was decided, Zagreus was just a random indie character in a sea of them.

I guess this post needs to be longer than "timing sucks" so let's look at other aspects. While I think indies are darkhorses for the final two slots (as they're potentially hype reveals for low licensing costs and with a lesser audience), Zagreus isn't even close to the front of the pack. He's not beating the likes of Reimu and Quote and Shovel Knight and Sans and Shantae and Cuphead. His only advantage over other big acclaimed indies is being new, which isn't even an advantage so much as it is a distinction. His game only sold a million copies so it's hardly a zeitgeist defining title. I don't see him making the cut unless something drastically changes.

Want: 0%
I'd rather wait to see if he actually has any legacy beyond being the indie darling du jour. Like I said, the sales didn't light the world on fire. The game has its fans, very dedicated fans, but what game doesn't nowadays? When your competition is characters, indie or not, that defined genres, changed the way games are perceived, or told stories that are remembered along the all-time greats, well, yeah, I'd rather have those. Nothing against Hades though I'm sure it's a lovely game. But sometimes a game is just a game.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Curly alt prediction: 6%?

 

[NintenRob]

I didn't know Hades was available to play in 2018.


Abstain, nominate Carmen Sandiego xMax

 

[Deleted member]

Boy

Chance: 13%

A lot of people have rated Zagreus very low on the totem poll due to Hades being officially released September of 2020 and supposedly being too late for Vol 2 as negotiations would've concluded at the end of 2019. Well, unlike most people here, I'm going out on a limb and saying he's a possibility. Yeah, this rating does look fairly low, but for the most part, Zagreus' chances on my end are based on a set of circumstances that sound rather impossible to believe yet also possible to become true.

Hades was officially revealed at The Game Awards in 2018, the same show where Joker was revealed to be the first DLC character in Vol 1. It was also 1 of, if not, the first games to be unveiled exclusively to the Epic Games store and came out in the same month it was unveiled. Nintendo are fairly involved with TGAs given it's 1 of the big gaming events to show new games and stuff, and with those game announcements, Nintendo are most likely watching them as well. Consider the fact that Hades was released under Early Access. If there was a possibility of Nintendo or Sakurai taking interest and seeing potential in the game, Early Access could've helped give the game exposure to them as it was available for everyone while development was still in progress. Supergiant are also a fairly well-known Indie studio with Bastion and Transistor under their name, so it's not too far off to think Nintendo might've had interest there given Hades is a Switch exclusive title and all. Speaking of Early Access, I went to look up the sales figures, and according to Supergiant's twitter, 700k copies were sold while the game was under Early Access, which is a pretty fascinating feat to be had given its popularity blew up after the official release. If you ask me, Hades was fairly big before becoming even bigger.

Another thing to consider is if Nintendo has interest in adding a character from a relatively new title to Vol 2 within the timeframe of Ultimate's release to the end of December 2021. When you look at the Switch's lineup after Ultimate, Fire Emblem Three Houses is the only new game to be added to Ultimate, whereas almost every Nintendo game after Ultimate had content added to Smash VIA Spirit Events, including Pokemon Sword and Shield which still feels the likeliest out of the rest to get a Challenger Pack. Even a good amount of 3rd Party titles like Bravely Default 2 and Monster Hunter Rise got a Spirit Event, and although not having a Spirit Event doesn't support a character/series being added by all means, it does make you wonder what possible new title Nintendo's looking to add if they wanted it. Maybe Hades has a decent shot of filling that box.

Now let's talk about the problem facing a potential inclusion since Zagreus isn't looked upon as super likely anyways. I don't think the game being too recent to determine its long term staying power means much, but the game is just coming out to the Japanese eShop this June. Hades was available on Switch in various regions except for Japan as localization for the game wasn't completed. Japanese audiences might not be too familiar with Zagreus and the characters within the game to know who he is, but if he were to be added, now would be the best time to do so. It'd be like a reverse Corrin of some kind, but I can't expect Nintendo to be that far out to do this especially with an Indie title.

Is blind optimism raising the score higher than it should be? Probably, but I'm willing to say Zagreus is a possibility than not.

Want: 100%

I was fairly neutral about Hades before I played it. It had a lot of raving reviews and was even recommended by a few YouTubers I watched like Matt McMuscles and Super Eyepatch Wolf. I didn't play the game until a few months after I bought it, but when I did play it, I got why there was so much hype around it. I can't exactly put into words as to what makes this game incredible, but I've played it for about 100 hours and really enjoyed the game. I kept playing it over and over having a blast every time I ran through the game. Zagreus is a cool and great character, and the characters in the game were very memorable to me which is crazy to think about because there's a good chunk of characters in the game already. In my head, I had so many thoughts as to how Zagreus could be introduced to Smash like including the Kid Icarus cast to his trailer and what his moveset could look like with boons in mind. I even have a thought of Zagreus' death animation being played when he's the last fighter to lose in a stamina battle. There's so much I like about Hades and the concept of Zagreus in Smash that I can't help but want it to happen even if his chances are solely based on specific circumstances that aren't the easiest to believe. He's my 2nd Most Wanted character in Smash Bros now, so here's to hoping he ends up shocking all of us and makes it to Smash.

 

[warpenguin55]

Zagreus
Chance: 0%
His game was released after FP2 was locked. There is no reason for Nintendo to pick him.

Want: Abstain

Noms: LoL Rep x5

 

[Inue Houji]

Zagreus
Chance: 0%
His game's official release date was after FP2 was already decided. Yes, it was in Early Access, but that was on the Epic Games Store, making it virtually unknown. Being an indie game doesn't help either.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played his game yet. And I'm too tired to look at gameplay atm.

Predictions
Curly alt 1.8%

Nominations
Rallen x5

 

[Commander_Alph]

abstain

Noms: Disgaea Rep x5

 

[Flyboy]

Zagreus
Chance: 0%
What can be said that hasn't already? Supergiant was a respected company, but Hades wasn't a smash hit back when the pass was decided. It wouldn't have stood out unless Nintendo could see into the future. Now, something like Fraymakers, I could see a Supergiant rep making it in, but not Smash. Timing just isn't on Zag's side, and that extends to Red or The Kid - Supergiant just wouldn't have been approached. Something of a shame, but them's the breaks.

Want: 50%
So...this is tricky for me. I agree with people who say they want to see Zag's staying power and that he's just another indie in a sea of acclaimed indies. That's true. But Supergiant Games has some of the coolest indies out there, and it's been very nice to see a game as good as Hades get held up in such high esteem! Mechanically, Zagreus would have a super interesting kit, so I can't say he'd be boring, and his visual design is striking and cool. But yeah, I think that we need to see if Hades has a little more staying power before I can commit even if I like Supergiant a lot. But again, I really do hope he gets into Fraymakers!

Nominations: Beatrice x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Boy

Chance: 13%

A lot of people have rated Zagreus very low on the totem poll due to Hades being officially released September of 2020 and supposedly being too late for Vol 2 as negotiations would've concluded at the end of 2019. Well, unlike most people here, I'm going out on a limb and saying he's a possibility. Yeah, this rating does look fairly low, but for the most part, Zagreus' chances on my end are based on a set of circumstances that sound rather impossible to believe yet also possible to become true.

Hades was officially revealed at The Game Awards in 2018, the same show where Joker was revealed to be the first DLC character in Vol 1. It was also 1 of, if not, the first games to be unveiled exclusively to the Epic Games store and came out in the same month it was unveiled. Nintendo are fairly involved with TGAs given it's 1 of the big gaming events to show new games and stuff, and with those game announcements, Nintendo are most likely watching them as well. Consider the fact that Hades was released under Early Access. If there was a possibility of Nintendo or Sakurai taking interest and seeing potential in the game, Early Access could've helped give the game exposure to them as it was available for everyone while development was still in progress. Supergiant are also a fairly well-known Indie studio with Bastion and Transistor under their name, so it's not too far off to think Nintendo might've had interest there given Hades is a Switch exclusive title and all. Speaking of Early Access, I went to look up the sales figures, and according to Supergiant's twitter, 700k copies were sold while the game was under Early Access, which is a pretty fascinating feat to be had given its popularity blew up after the official release. If you ask me, Hades was fairly big before becoming even bigger.

Another thing to consider is if Nintendo has interest in adding a character from a relatively new title to Vol 2 within the timeframe of Ultimate's release to the end of December 2021. When you look at the Switch's lineup after Ultimate, Fire Emblem Three Houses is the only new game to be added to Ultimate, whereas almost every Nintendo game after Ultimate had content added to Smash VIA Spirit Events, including Pokemon Sword and Shield which still feels the likeliest out of the rest to get a Challenger Pack. Even a good amount of 3rd Party titles like Bravely Default 2 and Monster Hunter Rise got a Spirit Event, and although not having a Spirit Event doesn't support a character/series being added by all means, it does make you wonder what possible new title Nintendo's looking to add if they wanted it. Maybe Hades has a decent shot of filling that box.

Now let's talk about the problem facing a potential inclusion since Zagreus isn't looked upon as super likely anyways. I don't think the game being too recent to determine its long term staying power means much, but the game is just coming out to the Japanese eShop this June. Hades was available on Switch in various regions except for Japan as localization for the game wasn't completed. Japanese audiences might not be too familiar with Zagreus and the characters within the game to know who he is, but if he were to be added, now would be the best time to do so. It'd be like a reverse Corrin of some kind, but I can't expect Nintendo to be that far out to do this especially with an Indie title.

Is blind optimism raising the score higher than it should be? Probably, but I'm willing to say Zagreus is a possibility than not.

Want: 100%

I was fairly neutral about Hades before I played it. It had a lot of raving reviews and was even recommended by a few YouTubers I watched like Matt McMuscles and Super Eyepatch Wolf. I didn't play the game until a few months after I bought it, but when I did play it, I got why there was so much hype around it. I can't exactly put into words as to what makes this game incredible, but I've played it for about 100 hours and really enjoyed the game. I kept playing it over and over having a blast every time I ran through the game. Zagreus is a cool and great character, and the characters in the game were very memorable to me which is crazy to think about because there's a good chunk of characters in the game already. In my head, I had so many thoughts as to how Zagreus could be introduced to Smash like including the Kid Icarus cast to his trailer and what his moveset could look like with boons in mind. I even have a thought of Zagreus' death animation being played when he's the last fighter to lose in a stamina battle. There's so much I like about Hades and the concept of Zagreus in Smash that I can't help but want it to happen even if his chances are solely based on specific circumstances that aren't the easiest to believe. He's my 2nd Most Wanted character in Smash Bros now, so here's to hoping he ends up shocking all of us and makes it to Smash.

Your entire argument is really only "maybe Nintendo noticed an Early Access game because they're involved in the Game Awards"? Don't you think if they wanted a recent game they'd have picked one of their own?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Zagreus

Chance: 0%
I'm sorry, but the timing doesn't work. The game was first announced in 2018, and nobody had any way of knowing it would become popular. This is basically the same situation as Among Us, except less odd-sounding. Plus, Nintendo didn't start promoting it until AFTER it was a proven success. By then, it was too late for a Smash spot. The most we can expect is a Spirit Event or MAYBE a Mii Costume.

Abstain on want. Never played Hades.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep xMax

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Worms pre-Zagreus

Beatrice (Umineko) x345
Concept: Disgaea rep x340
Rallen (Spectrobes) x320
Billy & Jimmy Lee x290
Concept: Skullgirls rep x269
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x265

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x237
Trevor Philips x230
Tetra x225
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x221
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x215
Ryza (Atelier) x215
Estelle Bright x215
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x205

200 - 151

Concept: From Software rep x200
Senator Armstrong x190
Bill Rizer x185
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Sackboy x160
Stage: Bowser's Castle x152

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Meat Boy x120
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
[Rerate] Louie x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105
Echo (Bowser) x105
Corvo Attano x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Todd Snap x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Gunvolt x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x70
Rean Schwarzer x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Garchomp x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Tails x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
[Rerate] Reimu x5
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Firebrand x1

Skullgirls rep beats up Mike Haggar for fifth place, and Haggar is tied for sixth with Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo.

Estelle Bright and Grunty cast 200 noms.

Today's newcomers, both with 5 noms, are Captain Charlie and Siris.

 

[Bobthealligator]

Why do we even bother rating characters like Zagreus. The DLC was decided in 2019, Hades released in 2020, his chances are 0%.

For Smash anyway, I think he's likely to be one of the kickstarter bonus characters in Fraymakers

 

[Inue Houji]

Why do we even bother rating characters like Zagreus.

For fun.
And it gives an incentive to discuss different characters other than the usual suspects.