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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Day 566: Waluigi and Isaac (Golden Sun)

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,913
Rex

Chance: 70%
I still think he's the likeliest character. If he's not in I'll be shocked. Rex is still popular. Very popular, especially in Japan where I hear he's top 3 alongside Bandana Dee and Sora. Xenoblade as a series is growing quickly so it would make sense to capitalize on that growth with a fighter. But at the same time a Xenoblade 3 isn't likely to come until after DLC is over imo. So it would make sense to have the protagonist of the most recent (remake nonwithstanding) and best selling game in the franchise. Also, as I'm sure everyone can remember, Sakurai has gone on record that Rex was too late to make the cut for base game. While that doesn't explicitly mean he would have been in if it weren't for timing, I think it's a reasonable deduction. Why even comment on him otherwise? And of course, ARMS was in the same boat and Min Min is now in in. All in all, Rex has every reason to get chosen.

Want: 100%
I guess I should comment on my connection to Rex seeing how I'm being called a screeching Rex stan and all. Funny thing is I've never played Xenoblade 2. Haven't even watched a playthrough. Most I can say is that I like the character designs, I think Rex's scuba gear is pretty cool.

The score is mostly because I think he got really shafted. While Pokemon and Fire Emblem get spots set apart for them, sometimes years before the character debuts, and with no regards for popularity, Xenoblade, an up-and-coming franchise that Nintendo's really pushing gets nothing? That's bull****. Even if timing didn't work out for base game, this is a character that really should've been in Pass 1. Here's hoping Rex doesn't join the unfortunate club of popular characters that miss the boat because of timing.

Gen 8

Double zeroes. Spirit Events disconfirm. There's no reason to have a Spirit Event if the plan is to have a promotional fighter later. There's no reason to have those Spirits in an event when they'd undoubtedly come later as part of the pack. People have said that it's Pokemon and that it always gets preferential treatment. But getting a Spirit Event isn't preferential treatment. It's nothing, 4 measly .pngs with stats and fights associated to them. Why would The Pokemon Company or Nintendo even ask for that, when a fighter would promote Sword and Shield just as well without it? The only explanation I can think of to even have that Spirit Event is because there's no fighter in the cards. Not to mention that the timing makes little sense. Sword and Shield is an evergreen title, no doubt, but it came out in 2019. Even it's DLC is past its prime. If the goal was simply to have a popular character from a recent game then it'd be fine, but popularity isn't taken into account when dealing with Pokemon unfortunately. This year will bring other Pokemon games, from Snap to whatever the new remake is. If Pokemon gets its obligatory promotional character it'll likely come from a newer game.

Whew, thank God those are over. Now to the real star of the day

Wooper Time

Double 100s

Remember what I said about Rex? **** that, in fact **** Rex, **** Xenoblade, **** Shulk, **** Min Min, **** everything and everyone who claims to be likelier than Wooper. I'm about to tell y'all non-believers why Wooper is as good as in and we might as well start discussing Wooper echo fighters.

First of all, Sakurai bias. I don't know why more people don't bring this up, but Sakurai's on the record as having said, and I quote from Famitsu #3651:

Masahiro Sakurai said:
Wooper is gonna be so great you guys, don't tell this to anyone but he's totally FP11. Oh and I hate modern Kirby
Fascinating. So yeah, that's hint number 1, but there's much more than just so-called "leakers" behind Wooper. Think about it. Remember what I said above? Pokemon Snap 2 is coming out next year, you know what Pokemon is probably going to be in it? Wooper. And hey, next year is probably remake year. So we'll surely get the Gen 2 remakes in the Let's Go style. You know what Pokemon debuted in Gen 2? That's right, Wooper's gonna be our first real Gen 2 rep (**** you Pichu) in fact I'm hearing from my sources that the remakes are called Let's Go Wooper. Both versions. And while we're at it, we're probably getting Diamond and Pearl remakes. You know what Pokemon was in those games? Wooper again!

My point being that having a character that can promote 5 of their upcoming games, not to mention Gen 8, they'd be insane to miss this chance. Plus we all suspect Wooper won the Ballot. It's really a no-brainer.

(My actual scores are abstentions by the way)

Noms: Marina x15 47 x15
Lloyd prediction: 40%
Arle prediction: 44.51%
Rayman prediction: 19.83%
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,307
Location
New Jersey
As an aside, I should probably bring up how I'm getting these ratings.

I think of how likely I think that character is for each pack. There are 3 packs left, and I think one will be a small third party, one will be a big third party, and one will be a first party, in that order. I also think of who’s likely to be in a given pass given that I am wrong, and our next first party is sooner or we get more/less first/third parties than I expected.

Therefore, since everybody has three chances left to get in, I take the sum of these scores and divide them by 300. The only exceptions are characters who are confirmed out or have been leaked, who get an automatic 0% or 90% (100% if I can’t justify why the leak is fake.) respectively. And Rex/Waluigi.

Without further ado, Rex. The first exception.

Chance: 50%.

Like I said last time. If his DLC Mii Costume disconfirms him, then he has a 0% chance. Otherwise it's 100%. That's literally it, Rex would be overwhelmingly the most likely character to me if it were not for that one little caveat. His only flaw literally IS that Mii Costume, otherwise he bullies his way past any potential negatives and how. (Also besides, Shulk already reps DE so the most recent unrepresented game is still 2, thus Rex would probably take priority).

Rex is the star of a very popular game on the Switch, who many fans had grown attached to as it was none other than Xenoblade 2. When he got his Mii Costume, Sakurai apologized for it, something that didn't even happen with GENO. Xenoblade is growing bigger and bigger, as it got a premium spot as one of Nintendo's biggest releases in the first half of 2020. And Rex makes perfect sense to include. While Xenoblade 2 isn't the newest release anymore, that being Xenoblade Definitive Edition, Rex has been asked for enough that I think he overcomes it.
Want: 35%.

This isn't a character I really want or anything, but hey, give the Xenoblade fandom some food. They deserve it. On a pure personal level, though, Rex is very lacking in anything that would interest me in the character. Hell, Chuggaaconroy's Let's Play hasn't gotten me that interested in it yet (mostly because the game looks like nothing short of a massive time sink), and that was how I discovered Xenoblade existed to begin with (from 1, well before Shulk in Smash although I knew who he was by the time of the rumors in Smash 4). And yet, I can't really say I would dislike Rex. Maybe a tinge of disappointment but I think he's earned his spot.

Gotta shill them all!

Chance: ...at this point I honestly don't know. I feel like it's a lock one minute and out of the running the next. I might genuinely have to abstain here. For what it's worth, were it not for the Spirit Event this would be my only definitive 100% because... well, I think it's rather obvious why. But that one thing makes it a tossup. Basically, like Rex and Waluigi, but this time it applies to a bunch of characters. So I'll go with 50%. 100% if it doesn't disconfirm, 0% otherwise. None of the individual characters are like that, though. Non starters and box legends get 0% because... well, the last time they went with one of those was Lucario in Brawl. There doesn't seem to be a Lucario out of the "normie" Pokémon, for want of a better term. Toxtricity and Dragapult might be popular but without an official push I don't know if they'd last.

Want: 0%. Not Arle related, but the idea that Pokémon can only get a shill for the latest generation over and over makes Pokémon speculation dull. Either you can rep a recent game or you go in the trash. That's really wack IMO, especially for a series where the picks are more predictable than even Fire Emblem. Much like its main series these days, risks are absolutely not on the mind of the Pokémon selection and I find that really, really bad for a series with a boatload of unique contenders. Let's give them a shot, no reason not to.

Upah

Chance: Literally a joke rating but infinity. Infinity can include 0% though. Wooper is too likely to be in this game. It's just fax.

Want: 60%. No joke, back when I was a young kid in like 5th - 6th grade I actually legitimately wanted Wooper in Smash. That's not totally behind me, but I even had a moveset concept where the down special was Muddy Water, the up special was Tail Whip... and I don't remember the rest. Kinda funny to look back on that at one point my most wanted character was Wooper.

TF2 rep x max. Did Arle get left out of Lloyd/Rayman day again, moved or...? (If she's still there, 24.78%. People either really believe in her or believe she's got no chance.) Speaking of, Lloyd is now on Mii Watch. 12.57% since I expect many people will bring up his Mii Costume. (Among those that don't, it'd be 45.37%) Rayman, on the other hand, is very much a hotly contested character in likelihood. Some think he's got an amazing chance, others next to none. Very little overlap. 26.27%.
 
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NintenZ

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Messages
12,213
Location
The Metaverse
3DS FC
5343-8848-6075
Switch FC
SW-0570-4210-6061
I do wanna clear something up

Me not being a fan of Rex as a character has no bearing on my thoughts of his likelihood

I always try to separate my personal thoughts of a character and what I find most ideal from what I find most realistic and this is no exception

I’m also not even entirely opposed to him (Xenoblade getting a second character is my most-wanted thing I’ll legit take anyone even if it’s Juju lmfao) so I don’t really have much of a stake either way for it to affect me thinking he’s likely or not

I haven’t really had many bad experiences with his fans either and if they enjoy him more power to em’, I personally don’t see him happening but that has nothing to do with my thoughts on the character or me preferring other characters at all and I really do want to specify that just so we’re on the same page

Don’t want anyone getting the wrong idea lol
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,913
Dante
26.78% Chance - 61.13% Want
His previous ratings are 0.08% - 54.79% (during the time when developer statements had disconfirmed him), 49.38% - 64.23% (post Byleth), and 41.62% - 58.36% (post Min Min). Oh how the mighty have fallen! Many expressed a loss of confidence in Dante, which might stem from DMC's grim prospects as per the Capcom leak, though as you will see below, it might be a generalized Capcom thing.
The winner of predictions was DaUsername DaUsername with a precise 25.00%
It's worth pointing out that Dante had one outlying chance score (95%) without which his score would be 24.16%

Phoenix
28.25% Chance - 82.22% Want
His previous ratings were 31.91% - 61.84% (right after Joker's reveal), 45.64% - 67.89% (post Banjo-Kazooie), 43.94% - 70.91% (post Byleth), and 44.13% - 74.69% (post Min Min). So, yeah, this could be the Chun-Li effect, or maybe people are feeling less hopeful for Capcom with all fighters so far being from Fighter Pass 1 companies.
The winner of predictions was L Lyncario with 29.70%
Phoenix is now the most wanted character overall, surpassing Dixie.

Monster Hunter
31.55% Chance - 43.00% Want
Their previous ratings were 31.06% - 46.21% (before Joker's release), 12.21% - 31.88% (post Banjo-Kazooie and at the height of Resident Evil expectations), 10.75% - 37.33% (after Byleth), and 40.38% - 53.24% (after Min Min).
The winner of predictions was Ridrool64 Ridrool64 with 30.42%

Bandana Dee
17.86% Chance - 73.07% Want
His previous ratings were 55.58% - 82.48% (before Ultimate's release), 8.88% - 66.02% (after Banjo-Kazooie), 21.70% - 74.41% (after Byleth), and 38.63% - 72.49% (after Min Min aka the golden age of Spirits). All chance scores seem to be taking massive dives. Maybe you were all just pretty negative this week? Or maybe there being only 3 fighters left just made every contender seem unlikelier (save for Hayabusa apparently).
The winners of predictions were DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 and Ridrool64 Ridrool64 with a precise 20.00%
Dee has risen in the ranks of want, being fourth for first party characters instead of fifth (he passed Rhythm Girl).

Dixie Kong
14.22% Chance - 75.92% Want
Her previous ratings were 22.57% - 67.42% (before Ultimate's release), 14.17% - 81.92% (after Banjo-Kazooie), 18.08% - 70.52% (after Byleth), and 35.10% - 79.73% (after Min Min).
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire with 14.08%
Dixie had a sole 70% rating (the closest to it was a 40%). Without that outstanding rating, her score would have been 12.08%
As mentioned, Dixie lost out her spot as the most wanted character to Phoenix. She also lost out most wanted first party to the Chorus Kids. She is now second for first party characters and third overall.

Extra nominations

3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus 5
Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
Blankiturayman Blankiturayman 10
DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername DaUsername 107
Delzethin Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji Inue Houji 20
Jomosensual Jomosensual 5
Louie G. Louie G. 5
L Lyncario 25
Mr. MR Mr. MR 70
Mr. Nintendo Mr. Nintendo 10
Nemuresu Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed Ninjaed 20
Perkilator Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 Ridrool64 15
SKX31 SKX31 5
Troykv Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi 59
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 5
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
7,275
Location
Mars
She also lost out most wanted first party to the Chorus Kids.
Wow really??? This makes me so happy.

I mean, no offense to Dixie Kong and my utmost condolences for her losing the top spot, but it's very satisfying to hear the community still embraces Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven. I dunno how long ago that rating was, but either way. I remember when they were such a heated topic back during Smash 4 and I've dealt with a lot of general skepticism and adversity toward them, so I'm happy everyone has cooled off. It just makes me smile is all, they're still my most wanted character.

Speaking of my OTHER MW though...

I didn't do my ARLE PREDICTION so just for posterity uh... 24%.
 
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Commander_Alph

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 20, 2019
Messages
528
Heck.. I missed the day that I have to rate Dee and Dixie, welp I don't know if abstaining them after the day is already over are allowed but today I'm also going to abstain Rex, Gen 8 Pokimane and BK Whopper.

Noms:

Zhao Yun ×10

Prediction:

Arle 32%
Rayman 12%
Lloyd 35%

Note: Still don't know how many Noms I have now.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,913
Wow really??? This makes me so happy.

I mean, no offense to Dixie Kong and my utmost condolences for her losing the top spot, but it's very satisfying to hear the community still embraces Chorus Kids and Rhythm Heaven. I dunno how long ago that rating was, but either way. I remember when they were such a heated topic back during Smash 4 and I've dealt with a lot of general skepticism and adversity toward them, so I'm happy everyone has cooled off. It just makes me smile is all, they're still my most wanted character.

Speaking of my OTHER MW though...

I didn't do my ARLE PREDICTION so just for posterity uh... 24%.
There's three RH characters in the most wanted characters (aside from the Chorus Kids there's Karate Joe and Rhythm Girl). I don't really understand how but I'm glad as well. They aren't even old ratings, they're all from the same day in August.

Commander_Alph Commander_Alph For abstaining on everything you get 5 nominations, unless you still give reasoning about the characters. If you do, you can get 10 nominations for each character you write 5 sentences about.

And no, you can't abstain, rate, or gain nominations for a day once it's over.
 
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Dan Quixote

Smash Rookie
Joined
Jun 25, 2020
Messages
16
Location
Florida
Dante
26.78% Chance - 61.13% Want
His previous ratings are 0.08% - 54.79% (during the time when developer statements had disconfirmed him), 49.38% - 64.23% (post Byleth), and 41.62% - 58.36% (post Min Min). Oh how the mighty have fallen! Many expressed a loss of confidence in Dante, which might stem from DMC's grim prospects as per the Capcom leak, though as you will see below, it might be a generalized Capcom thing.
The winner of predictions was DaUsername DaUsername with a precise 25.00%
It's worth pointing out that Dante had one outlying chance score (95%) without which his score would be 24.16%

Phoenix
28.25% Chance - 82.22% Want
His previous ratings were 31.91% - 61.84% (right after Joker's reveal), 45.64% - 67.89% (post Banjo-Kazooie), 43.94% - 70.91% (post Byleth), and 44.13% - 74.69% (post Min Min). So, yeah, this could be the Chun-Li effect, or maybe people are feeling less hopeful for Capcom with all fighters so far being from Fighter Pass 1 companies.
The winner of predictions was L Lyncario with 29.70%
Phoenix is now the most wanted character overall, surpassing Dixie.

Monster Hunter
31.55% Chance - 43.00% Want
Their previous ratings were 31.06% - 46.21% (before Joker's release), 12.21% - 31.88% (post Banjo-Kazooie and at the height of Resident Evil expectations), 10.75% - 37.33% (after Byleth), and 40.38% - 53.24% (after Min Min).
The winner of predictions was Ridrool64 Ridrool64 with 30.42%

Bandana Dee
17.86% Chance - 73.07% Want
His previous ratings were 55.58% - 82.48% (before Ultimate's release), 8.88% - 66.02% (after Banjo-Kazooie), 21.70% - 74.41% (after Byleth), and 38.63% - 72.49% (after Min Min aka the golden age of Spirits). All chance scores seem to be taking massive dives. Maybe you were all just pretty negative this week? Or maybe there being only 3 fighters left just made every contender seem unlikelier (save for Hayabusa apparently).
The winners of predictions were DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 and Ridrool64 Ridrool64 with a precise 20.00%
Dee has risen in the ranks of want, being fourth for first party characters instead of fifth (he passed Rhythm Girl).

Dixie Kong
14.22% Chance - 75.92% Want
Her previous ratings were 22.57% - 67.42% (before Ultimate's release), 14.17% - 81.92% (after Banjo-Kazooie), 18.08% - 70.52% (after Byleth), and 35.10% - 79.73% (after Min Min).
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire with 14.08%
Dixie had a sole 70% rating (the closest to it was a 40%). Without that outstanding rating, her score would have been 12.08%
As mentioned, Dixie lost out her spot as the most wanted character to Phoenix. She also lost out most wanted first party to the Chorus Kids. She is now second for first party characters and third overall.
Y'all I'm never predicting anything higher than 30% again lmaoooo
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,746
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Wooper

100%
Wooper is the true god. All those watching the game awards saw this absolute unit take over. It was only through Wooper's will that Sephiroth could cleave Galeem. It was under Wooper's watch that happened. I see no other viable potential explanation. Wooper is the biggest chad in Pokemon, even over Ditto. You think Ditto is cool? Wooper can learn Ice Punch with No Hands. None. Not even Kyurem learns ice punch. To learn such a coveted move without the right appendage must mean he is a lock.

Abstain Want
Look guys Wooper Watch was crazy. I think a few people died and the authorities are asking questions. I would let them know Wooper did it but I fear the reprocussions. If you or a loved one suffered at the hands of wooper, please reach out. The resistance is here, we will survive. Just don't let Wooper know I leaked the feds onto his trail.

Now then, back to our regularly scheduled forcast.

Gen 8 Pokemon

40% Chance

To me, this is mainly riding on the possibility of a third pass. Right now, I am really doubting a Gen 8 pokemon is in this pass due to the spirit event. It just makes no sense to me why we would get a good number of gen 8 spirits during Gen 8's launch if we were getting a gen 8 character. It is the same reason I think Officer Howard is likely only if we get another pass.

That being said, Gen 8 could end up getting screwed depending on how long the generation is. If Gen 9 comes out in 2022, when a supposed Third pass would be going on, then imo Gen 9 takes priority and that shoots Gen 8 in the foot. That being said... I kind of doubt this happening. In my eyes, we likely will end up getting Sinnoh remakes this year and DLC for them next year, which in my eyes means Gen 9 is not the biggest competition. Still something to keep an eye on tho. The fact that could go either way also hurts gen 8's chances.

But let's say that Gen 9 doesn't come out until 2023 and we do get a FP3. How do I feel? Well, Gen 8 becomes one of the safest bets out there in terms of first parties. Outside of Rex, the only first parties I would say are safe if that happens are Gen 8 and Officer Howard. Gen 8 makes too much sense to ignore. Sword and Shield, in spite of my issues with said games, did very well, so it just makes sense for them to get represented.

Now for the bonus round, who would we get? If I had to bet, the most likely choices are Dragapult, Toxtricity, and Cinderace. Cinderace is clearly one of the main pokemon Game Freak is pushing this gen, given that they gave Goh it in the anime and Ash still does not have a Galar starter. Since the new ace of Ash's team is a Lucario, I think it is safe to say that for now, Cinderace is the main Galar pokemon being pushed in the anime.

While Ash does have some Galar pokemon in his rotation as of now, I think it is hard to say how much they count. First off, Ash does have a Galaran Farfetched. While he might get a Sirfetched, it has not happened yet so who knows. In one of the most recent episodes, he did catch a Dracovish. Now, Dracovish is an abomination among men, but it could happen, idk.

As for the other two, the main reason that they get a boost is the official pokemon day poll. Toxtricity got 2nd, but it did get a Gigantimax form while Dragapult did not. That being said, Dragapult did win. Both offer some unique moveset potential and each got almost twice as many votes as Cinderace. So, if ya wanna bet, it would be one of these.

Also I will mention if we do get a gen 4 shill rep it would probs be Garchomp but I would bet on Gen 8.

80% Want

Let me math it out in a lightning round of the main likely choices.

Rillaboom: Hey Sari Sari , don't make it bad. Sing a sad song, and make it better. I know that you may want to come down on the monke with your silver hammer, but I would rather us Come together and let it be. I think we can say All Together Now, getting a grass starter would be good and this monkey not only fits the bill, but it has the heart and rubber soul so I would like this one a lot.
Cinderace: Cinderace hscores well with me, it has a sleek design and it is a blast to use, kicking above its weight class. It hits its goals well. That being said, it suffers a penalty.
Intelleon: This is actually the worst starter. I was gonna do a bit here like I did for a few others, but I hate this thing. It is so bad, awful pokeon, Shame since I liked Sobble. Bottom tier.
Obstagoon: Pretty cool, but do not tell Nancy that I think this one is not my first choice.
Sirfetched: An elegant pokemon, from a more civilized age. It is ok.
Dracovish: God left me broken, I can't ever breathe on land, I like him a lot
Toxtricity: This one rocks. It might clash with some people's desires of what kind of gen 8 rep they expect, but do not listen to the talking heads out there. This pokemon is The Jam. I know that for some people this electric typing might be a black flag, but I do think its better qualities iron out the kinks some people might have.
Dragapult: Best choice. I would make a joke but the fact it fires its kids gets me enough bonus points.
Urshifu: I do not like this bear one bit. I do not like how hard he hits. I do not like how he looks the same. This stupid bear is kind of lame. The Isle of Armor was meh at best. Outside of Intelleon, I would prefer the rest.

So, yeah, I like plenty of these. But god I would prefer not Urshifu or Intelleon. I would prefer Dragapult and Toxtricity over the others but the rest are ok. Dracovish would also be a ton of fun.

Rex

60% Chance

Look, Rex is hard for me. The fact that he was the DLC Mii Costume bundled with FP1 is a bit of a hurdle, although it has a bit of leeway since that costume kind of came with the base game. Look, I could do a bigger write up for Rex, but I think most people know the story with Rex. Xenoblade 2 did quite well for itself, and Rex is the choice from it. He would be super unique. He has a lot of fan requests from Japan. His competition from Xenoblade is Elma, who had a much better shot for base game, and less important characters from his game. If you include Xenosaga KOS MOS is also a thing, but I think Rex trumps her mainly due to being owned by Nintendo and being a much more popular choice amongst fans. Sakurai also made some positive comments that help him given we got Min Min, but it is not a guarantee.

So why did I drop from being near sure of him? Well, I just do not feel as confident. When we just did Min Min, Rex was imo the single most likely choice. Now, I am less confident. I still think he is one of the more likely characters possible, but I no longer am as confident in him.

100% Want

Rex honestly just feels like he should be in. XC2 is one of those games that defined the early switch and the excitement for the Switch, at least for me and my friends. I have my gripes with the game, but I see a character that would have a unique moveset due to how drivers and blades work and an awesome soundtrack. Now, would I prefer other characters? Yeah, he is not even my most wanted first party. But I would say that overall, i do want Rex. There is a reason I have been supporting him since this game came out. The fact that our XC2 soundtrack is really weak in Smash makes me so sad. I hope that much like FF7, DLC fixes its music collection.

Mike Haggar x 15
Neku x 15


Predictions
Rayman: 17% (People gonna overrate this one)
Lloyd: 28% (I might go high on this but I expect outliers)
Arle: 20% (Yeah, she is gonna have her stans come out)

Y'all I'm never predicting anything higher than 30% again lmaoooo
Let me give ya one piece of advice for predictions. Knowing who is coming up, there is one character that will get over a 30% for free. Probably on Saturday.
 

I.D.

Smash Lord
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Messages
1,411
I found the voice direction surprisingly bad, which makes sense as according to Skye Bennett, they only got to do 1 take with no direction and if I remember correctly, no context for the lines. That's Sonic Adventure tier. Not that the casting was that much better, getting a ****ton of Americans to do British accents and get a British actress to do multiple American accents.
Hilarious meltdowns aside, I really have to make a correction here since it's just pure slander and misinformation, especially the bolded part. An extreme amount of care was put into the casting and direction of XB2's dub, which is immediately apparent just by comparing the accents of different characters and cultures present in the game:
Leftherians (like Rex) speak with a Yorkshire accent
Ardainians speak with Scottish accents
Gormotti speak with Welsh accents
Urayans speak with Australian accents
Blades (like Pyra and Mythra) speak with American accents

And so on and so forth. There are some exception to the general rules and almost all of them have some sort of plot or background explanation. But yeah sure, no care at all was put into the dub, all of this was just one big pure coincidence. Literally Sonic Adventure tier.
Gwen has also never provided a source for the "they didn't get any directions" claim and the last time he was asked about it he very rudely replied back to the other user that he didn't have time to search for a statement on a game he hates, but despite that he continues to happily parrot what might very well be a made up or grossly exaggerated statement. (Let's be honest, when people talk about how bad XB2's dub is they repost the same Rex meme scream from the trailer over and over and mysteriously never go into any further detail.)

Oh wait, this is the RTC thread

Uhhh

Rex (& Pyra & Mythra)
Chance: 50%. You see, they are 3 people so they get triple the chance of Kosmos. It just works in my mind, don't question it.

Want: 100% just for the reactions alone. Oh and I guess I liked XB2 as well.

Anyway, XB2 has an AWFUL English dub. Never play it!


My ears are BLEEDING
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
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TCT~Phantom
Hilarious meltdowns aside, I really have to make a correction here since it's just pure slander and misinformation, especially the bolded part. An extreme amount of care was put into the casting and direction of XB2's dub, which is immediately apparent just by comparing the accents of different characters and cultures present in the game:
Leftherians (like Rex) speak with a Yorkshire accent
Ardainians speak with Scottish accents
Gormotti speak with Welsh accents
Urayans speak with Australian accents
Blades (like Pyra and Mythra) speak with American accents

And so on and so forth. There are some exception to the general rules and almost all of them have some sort of plot or background explanation. But yeah sure, no care at all was put into the dub, all of this was just one big pure coincidence. Literally Sonic Adventure tier.
Gwen has also never provided a source for the "they didn't get any directions" claim and the last time he was asked about it he very rudely replied back to the other user that he didn't have time to search for a statement on a game he hates, but despite that he continues to happily parrot what might very well be a made up or grossly exaggerated statement. (Let's be honest, when people talk about how bad XB2's dub is they repost the same Rex meme scream from the trailer over and over and mysteriously never go into any further detail.)

Oh wait, this is the RTC thread

Uhhh

Rex (& Pyra & Mythra)
Chance: 50%. You see, they are 3 people so they get triple the chance of Kosmos. It just works in my mind, don't question it.

Want: 100% just for the reactions alone. Oh and I guess I liked XB2 as well.

Anyway, XB2 has an AWFUL English dub. Never play it!


My ears are BLEEDING
Right, because the mature thing is to linger on a character that had their day two weeks ago and then attack another user for no good reason.

Gonna hijack this to make a statement, don’t attack people like this. That goes for everyone. I don’t care if you agree or disagree with anyone on anything. I don’t care for what reason, but this, this ain’t ok. Don’t attack people, don’t post flame bait “for the reactions”. Keep things civil and have fun.
 

I.D.

Smash Lord
Joined
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This post has been warned.
Right, because the mature thing is to linger on a character that had their day two weeks ago and then attack another user for no good reason.

Gonna hijack this to make a statement, don’t attack people like this. That goes for everyone. I don’t care if you agree or disagree with anyone on anything. I don’t care for what reason, but this, this ain’t ok. Don’t attack people, don’t post flame bait “for the reactions”. Keep things civil and have fun.
Oh don't worry too much about it. He has me on ignore, you see.
 

DaUsername

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Skipping Rex because I honestly don't know what to think about his chances anymore.

Gotta Shill 'em-Ah, dang it, someone already made this joke!
Chance: 90%
I lowered my score a bit because last year seemed like the prime time to shove in a new Pokémon, but they just didn't. I still think a gen 8 newcomer is super likely though, because Pokémon is always relevant. Sure the game and DLCs have come and gone but nothing is stopping them from releasing a third version or a Sword/Shield 2 or more DLC packs, and I'm not sure why they wouldn't because Pokémon games are just free money machines for GF and Nintendo at this point.
Now a thing I hear a lot of people bring up is "Sword and Shield had a spirit event! We aren't getting a new character!" and as much as I want to agree, you're all forgetting two major counterpoints:
1. Pokémon has proven time and time again that it doesn't care about your "rules"
2. Do you really think they're just gonna let the third (soon to be second) most successful Pokémon games of all time be represented with nothing more than 4 .PNGs?
Because I seriously doubt it
Want: 1%
I've probably said this before, but I don't like Sword and Shield. I consider them to be the successes that killed the franchise. Sure, they'll continue to release new games and get tens of millions of sales every time, but don't expect any real effort to be put into them. Like I said above, free money machines.
The only reason this score isn't 0 because I know that no matter who they add, it'll still be a better and more interesting choice than Byleth was.

Wooper looks disappointed
Chance: 1%
It's a Pokémon, so I can't give it a 0. But it's also not from the newest generation, so that hurts its chances quite a bit.
Want: 90%
Normally I'd say something about how I don't want any more Pokémon newcomers, but I can't. How could anyone say no to that smile?
Wooper_anime.png


Rayman prediction: 13%
Lloyd prediction: 23%
Arlene prediction: 18%
Noms: Senator Armstrong xHowever many I earned today.
 

Sari

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Day over.

Today we are rating three characters so please rate the following:
  • Lloyd from Tales
  • Rayman from Rayman
  • Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo ( Ridrool64 Ridrool64 )
Our next rating will be Activision/Blizzard themed, so predict Crash Bandicoot and Tracer. Expect that day to start sometime around Saturday.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs for today's characters:

Lloyd


Rayman


Arle Nadja

 

Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,504
Arle

Chance 45 - The more things change the more they stay the same here. While I saw something about the no violence thing not mattering for her anymore(really don't feel like trying to dig that back up because IIRC it was in the middle of a Papagenos video) Eggman and Tails being back on the table means she's still not the favorite for Sega reps. Gonna boost her up from my July rating of a 40 since there's no question she's back on the table it seems. Other than that, a lot of what I said about her before still stands. She's still super requested from the Japanese audience and it a major figure in the puzzle game genre. In short, while I don't expect her, I think she's without a doubt a contender for Smash.

Want 20 - Would really like to get some other Sega characters first. Kiryu would be great but he's got his own issues now with the no fighting women quote that came out in the last 6 months or so. Eggman is easily my most wanted Sega rep as well so I'd like to see him before anyone else. I also don't really have a connection to her or Puyo Puyo so it's tough for me to pull for her to get one of the final spots. Not the worst pick but not one I really have much interest in.


Ray man
Chance 10 - Ah Ubisoft. Much like Level 5 and Koei Tecmo it feels like you're always on the verge of getting someone but never do. So, why do I think there's not much of a shot at Rayman coming to Smash? First is that he's not very popular at all in Japan. That's a pretty big kill shot many characters have to deal with and he's no different. The 2nd is that the series may have gone dormant. If that's true I doubt he's going to be high on either Nintendo or Ubisofts want list. His fan popularity keeps him alive but otherwise I'm not liking Rayman a ton at the moment.

Want 0 - Yeah, I'll pass on this for 2 main reasons. The first is that he's competition for series that I want to see in Smash such as Assassin's Creed and one of my favorites in Far Cry. The 2nd is that, a lot like BWD, I don't think there's a fun moveset to be had here. Overall just not a fan and would rather get a whole ton of other characters first.


Lloyd
Chance 25 - Man how things have changed. The last time I rated him was about a year ago. I gave him a 50% then with the BN Mii Costumes all missing. Now with the Mii Costumes all slowly coming back and Bandi Namco still seemingly not interested in adding their own characters into Smash I'm cutting his chances in half. Obviously Lloyd isn't dead until the Mii Costume shows back up again, so for now he's still in play but hovering on death's door. I'm keeping him with a respectable score though because I feel like if we do get another BN character with the way things are it's probably him. We'll see what the future holds but I'm not expecting it to get much brighter for him right now.

Want 50 - A baseline inoffensive pick for me. There's some other BN characters such as Agumon or Nightmare that I'd rather get first but if it's Lloyd I don't really mind it too much. He'd have a good moveset and ToS is a pretty well known game. You could for sure find worse picks out there. Granted, I've never touched a Tales of game so I don't have much pushing me towards wanting him, but if he got in I can't say that I'd mind.



Predictions
Tracer 18.31%
Crash 68%

Noms:
Riptor x 10
Bioshock Protag x10
John Marston x10
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Lord
Joined
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1,101
Villager's side b

Chance: 30%

My chance score is lower since I have less confidence in him. While I don't think the return of the majority of the Smash 4 Mii costumes is a death blow, it really makes you feel like that Lloyd might be next. But I have a gut feeling he could still make it. Tales Of is very popular in Japan, Lloyd is highly requested and Sakurai himself stated that Lloyd is the best rep for Tales when mentioning his Mii costume. Even though I think Yuri gives him a run for his money, it is telling that Lloyd was the one chosen for the costume. Plus Tales of Symphonia is still the best selling game in the series and remains a well liked game. He just has some good things going for him and I still think he is Bamco's frontrunner.

Want: 55%

My only experience with Tales Of is Vesperia, which doesn't even have Lloyd in it. I honestly don't know much about him but I have done my research and I've heard good things about Symphonia. So I have been slowly embracing the idea of him getting into this game. He has a neat design and a dual-wielding sword user sounds interesting. And if he brings content from Vesperia as well, that would be appreciated. Still, there are several Bamco characters I want more.

_________________________

The guy who would not be able to participate in an ARMS tournament.

Chance: 14%

As time goes on, I lose more faith in Rayman. He never managed to catch a break in Smash, despite Nintendo and Ubisoft's close relationship. I have a feeling that his spirit is all he is going to get, or at least he might get a Mii costume. What makes me think this is that Rayman's games have sold poorly in Japan. It doesn't help that there are other Western games like Skyrim that have sold much better in Japan and thus would be more appealing to Nintendo of Japan. When you combine that with competition from Assassin's Creed and Rayman seemingly not having a game on the horizon, his chances are not looking high chief.

So yeah, I have joined the group of Rayman skeptics. I will keep the door open a little bit because again of Nintendo and Ubisoft's close relationship and Rayman being fairly popular and requested in the West. If I end up being wrong, so be it, but I would be glad to be wrong because......

Want: 75%

.....Rayman would be a great choice. He is a cartoony platforming character with Nintendo history and a library of very good games. He just makes a lot of sense and would fit right in with the likes of Mario, Sonic and Pac Man. I've played a couple of the Rayman games, mostly the original game on PS1 which I hold in high regard. That game looks so pretty and I think it's brilliantly made, despite some questionable level designs here and there. I've also played some of Rayman Legends and that is a beautiful and well crafted game. Rayman's stage would look stunning and he would have such a creative and inspired moveset. I also adore some of the music. So yeah I would be hyped for him.

__________________________

"I'm going to redeem myself by assaulting this girl!"

Yes, this is an actual phrase used.

Chance: 60%

Arle Nadja is one of my three predictions for a good reason. But first, a brief history lesson.

Released in 1991, Puyo Puyo is a puzzle game focused around the subject of this rating: Arle. She is a spellcaster who has the honor of foiling the plans of the Dark Prince who wants to take over the world. But first, Arle must take down 12 opponents. To take down these enemies, they participate in an intense, grueling game of...Puyo Puyo. The basis of this game is that you have colored Puyos which drop down in a grid. If you connect 4 Puyos of the same color, they pop and disappear. If Puyos pop, then the Puyos above them will drop down and they will pop too if they touch enough Puyos of the same color. This is called a chain which will drop garbage into the opponent's grid. And that's the objective: Create sick as **** combos and watch garbage fill your enemies' screens as you watch them cry and try to dig themselves out of despair.

Anyway, Puyo Puyo was a success and was ported to many platforms, including the Super Famicom and Game Boy. Now, Puyo Puyo has a very interesting history for two reasons. First, the cast of Puyo Puyo actually came from a dungeon crawler game (of all things) called Mado Monogatari. This is where Arle gets her elemental spells from. Second, in order to appeal to western audiences, Sega reskinned Puyo Puyo when they released it in the West and they made it into a Sonic game called Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine. Nintendo did a similar thing when they were able to release the game in the West. It was still Puyo Puyo, but it had a Kirby skin, and it was called Kirby's Avalanche.

Moving on, Puyo Puyo got a lot of sequels. Starting with the second game, several of the installments got North American releases. While Puyo Puyo off the bat gained popularity exponentially in Japan, it did take a while to gain traction in the West. In fact Puyo Puyo Fever in 2004 was the last game to receive an English localization. Well, that was the case, up until 2014 when the people at Sega got the brilliant idea to bring Puyo Puyo and Tetris together. Thus, Puyo Puyo Tetris became a thing and it got a localization in 2017. Since then there have been two more Puyo Puyo games, localized, and they have given the series more attention. I also want to point out that Nintendo put the original Puyo Puyo (the Japanese version) on the Switch online service and not Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine or Kirby's Avalanche.

This is the crux of my argument here. Nintendo and Sega have been pushing this series hard in recent times, especially Sega as they have been trying to make Puyo Puyo into an esport. When you factor in how long the series has been going for and its long track record with Nintendo, it just makes a lot of sense for Nintendo to heavily consider Arle. I would even call her Sega's frontrunner, despite Eggman being in the running. Another reason why I consider her likely is because I am expecting a Terry tier pick in this pass and Arle fits that bill perfectly. A character whose popularity mostly resides in one country, but they do got a solid fanbase in other countries. Plus it's not a huge series in general so she would be cheaper compared to Steve and Sephiroth.

One major thing that I see cited as a blow to Arle's chances is an interview with her creator. I can't seem to find a link to this specific interview but it has been discussed here on Smashboards before. Basically, her creator said that he does not want Arle to be in a violent game. But when he talks about this, he is only referring to a Puyo Puyo fighting game (Which would indeed be weird), and plus Smash isn't a violent game. So this argument is rendered moot.

Overall, I really do think she will be one of the final 3 characters. I can almost bet on it. Puyo Puyo has been popular in Japan for a while now and it's growing steadily in the West. It just makes a lot of sense.

Want: 75%

This score mostly consists of little things that build up into high want. Her cute design, Puyo Puyo's weird but fascinating history, its ridiculous characters (Arle is desired by Satan himself), the music, and the lively visuals. For the moveset, I imagine it would be a combination of her elemental spells like ice storm and thunder and the main mechanic of Puyos connecting and popping. Maybe have it be where Arle can attach Puyos to her enemies and when she puts 4 on them, they pop, dealing damage to the opponent. Finally, I really enjoy Puyo Puyo and I think I even prefer it over Tetris. Overall I would be pretty excited over her inclusion.

Predictions:
Crash - 65%
Tracer - 20%

Noms:
Among Us character x15
Excitebiker x15
 
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Neosonic97

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Basically, her creator said that he does not want Arle to be in a violent game. But when he talks about this, he is only referring to a Puyo Puyo fighting game (Which would indeed be weird), and plus Smash isn't a violent game. So this argument is rendered moot.
Couldn't be any worse than Arle's origins back when it was Madou Monogatari and not Puyo Puyo. Compile era was weird.

Gonna abstain on specific chance and want, but I do have a few thoughts.

Amongst these three, I'd probably say Arle is the most likely, believe it or not. Rayman has the whole 'spirit' thing going against him (plus Rayman's games haven't really done very well in Japan), and I'm pretty sure the Lloyd Mii Costume is gonna be returning. That, and the fact that Puyo Puyo's been growing in popularity pretty rapidly recently thanks to the smashing success of Puyo Puyo Tetris and its sequel.

Also, a fun fact: if Arle DOES end up being a character, this'll make it her third time crossing over with a certain blue hedgehog- first in the japan-exclusive Puyo Puyo Quest, then Sonic got thrown into Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 VERY recently. My new PFP is literally Sonic's artwork from PPT2!
 
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Louie G.

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Not gonna do my writeup yet, but just to make sure we don't hear the tired no violence thing anymore...

Taken from an interview with Mizuki Hosoyamada, the current director of Puyo.


1610602683732.png


Make of this what you will (no, it's not a disconfirmation - he was directly asked about Arle in Smash, what was he supposed to say) but the concerns about Arle in a fighting game are completely null and void. Just wanted to share this to prevent the potential headaches if it needed explaining down the line. I saw this alluded to before ( Jomosensual Jomosensual ) so I wanted to provide.
 
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SharkLord

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Not gonna do my writeup yet, but just to make sure we don't hear the tired no violence thing anymore...

Taken from an interview with Mizuki Hosoyamada, the current director of Puyo.


View attachment 299225

Make of this what you will (no, it's not a disconfirmation - he was directly asked about Arle in Smash, what was he supposed to say) but the concerns about Arle in a fighting game are completely null and void. Just wanted to share this to prevent the potential headaches if it needed explaining down the line. I saw this alluded to before ( Jomosensual Jomosensual ) so I wanted to provide.
Arle doesn't even have to be overtly violent anyways. Just have use magic, Puyos, and some good ol' slapstick comedy and we should be good.

Also, it is an absolute travesty that this song wasn't listed for Lloyd
C'mon, it's literally called Final Destination. Can't get more Smash-y than that.
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Lloyd Irving

Chance: 15% -
Sephiroth basically codified the fact that all of the Smash 4 third party Mii Costumes will be coming back in some form. And they more than likely wouldn't randomly leave out one. That alone has really hurt my confidence in Lloyd's chances, along with Namco's general lack of character additions. Nonetheless, his merits still remain. He's been highly requested for a long time and no doubt had strong support on the ballot, and Sakurai himself said he'd be the perfect rep for Tales. Furthermore, Tales' aniversary festival from 2020 was postponed and scheduled for March, which lines up with the next character release thanks to amiibo theory (though this is a more recent development, and likely wasn't planned back in 2019 when the pass was decided). So while Lloyd is currently in hot water, his merits still have the chance of pulling him through.

Want: 15% - My friend really wants him in and he has both Nintendo history and a large fanbase, which gives him some points! Thus he would make a lot of people happy and would bring another longtime fan request into the game. However, being a Namco character he would deconfirm my most wanted character, which really kills the score. Those who know me know exactly who that character is, and for those who don't my avatar and signature are evident. Lloyd has certainly earned it and a dual-wielder could be cool, but I can't really support a character who I have little history with and would deconfirm my most wanted.



Rayman

Chance: 5% -
Ubisoft and Nintendo remain close, and Rayman and his buddies did get spirits in the base game. But time and time again Rayman has gotten the shaft. He gets minor content and, like similar situation companies Koei Tecmo and Level-5, has yet to get a character for whatever reason. Rayman also had the added problem of his games doing poorly in Japan. Honestly, my faith in the character continues to wane over time, which is very unfortunate. Let's not forget the state of Rayman's franchise. Aside from a semi-recent port of Rayman Legends, Rayman's future isn't looking too bright. Granted, his competition in Rabbids and Assassin's Creed has been removed, which does help him a decent bit. No doubt he also had some surprise ballot support thanks to the hype generated by ArtsyOmni's hoax. H***, even before then I saw a lot of Rayman in Smash hype train art! But it takes more than fan demand to get one into Smash, and likely Nintendo just doesn't see a need to give Ubisoft a character.

Want: 40% - I've only played parts of Legends with a friend and watched a longplay of the first game, but I honestly think Rayman would be a cool addition! He's got no shortage of material to work with, both for a Smash moveset and challenger pack content! His stage would no doubt be crazy and colorful like Rayman 1 and Origins' environments, and there's plenty of good characters to make an ample spirit board with! And let's not forget the MUSIC! My god would I love to see something like
this in the Smash soundtrack! Madder, the main theme of Rayman 3 would also be a fantastic addition, even if it clashes with the whimsical nature of the stage. Overall, whether you like Rayman himself or not, you have to admit that he would come with some fantastic content!


Arle Nadja

Chance: 50% -
I'm not sure if SEGA will be getting a rep at all this pass, but if they do, Arle is definitely one of the frontrunners. SEGA has been seriously pushing her series over the past few years, Puyo Puyo Tetris has been giving the series more exposure and popularity in the west, even to the point of supposedly becoming an eSport! And her localization efforts aren't just a recent development either. Puyo's been getting localized since 2004, so she's had a lot of time to build up recognizability. So SEGA no doubt sees her as a potentially profitable character. As for competition, it's been a bit of a flip flop. With Kiryu bowing out and Eggman returning to take his place, that front remains stagnant. Really, Arle has the pedigree neccessary and SEGA has been promoting it heavily. It really just depends on whether or not Nintendo and SEGA wanna pull the trigger on it! Eggman's definitely a threat but Sonic hasn't been getting much promotion lately so Arle may have an edge over her Mean Bean Machine buddy.

Want: 70% - Arle's design is adorable and she has a very colorful world, along with a strong Nintendo pedigree amd a very storied history. That definitely gives her tons of points in my book! Her moveset would be a clever mix between Puyo-stacking and standard magecraft to incorporate both sides of her history, and would make for a very unique character that'd be difficult to paass up! While I've known about her for years, my first real experience with her was with MUGEN of all things, and my friends got a kick out of her moveset and her very G-rated dialogue! So I would definitely be up for seeing her in Smash!

Though there are two reasons why she lost points. The first was generally bad experiences in Puyo Tetris 2, which I got for Christmas. After hours of practice and reading on Puyo Nexus, I just can't get the hang of Puyo gameplay, and it's giving me the same problem I had with Hearts of Iron 4 last year. I decided to just to the campaign since that was my main reason for asking for it, and while some battles have been fun, a lot of them have just been a mess. I've had a lot of situations where Core AI activates and stays on, and no matter how well I play I'm either demolished or end up in a stalemate. After an hour plus of struggling, the AI suddenly drops to a level so easy that the victory just feels...unsatisfying. This entire experience really sucked a lot of fun and enthusiasm out of it for me. Maybe I need to practice more, but despite all of the hours I've dumped into it it just isn't clicking with me.

The other reason is much more simple: competition. I'm a big Sonic fan and this means that I really want to see a second Sonic rep. In fact after 13 years, Sonic more than DESERVES a second rep! Arle would obviously block that.

Nonetheless, even with those caveats, I'd be pretty excited if Arle was chosen, and I think she'd come with a ton of cute and colorful content!



Nominations:
4x Strategy rep x10
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Crash Bandicoot - 67.23%
Tracer - 25.45%
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Arle doesn't even have to be overtly violent anyways. Just have use magic, Puyos, and some good ol' slapstick comedy and we should be good.

Also, it is an absolute travesty that this song wasn't listed for Lloyd
C'mon, it's literally called Final Destination. Can't get more Smash-y than that.
I mean in Sari’s defense, they choose a few iconic songs. That song slaps but oftentimes it is just a few iconic songs or a favorite song or two. We usually top out at 3 per character. Trust me, if we had more I’d just flood the thread with the entire Spyro soundtrack or request Miror B’s theme for every Pokémon character.

Sari please don’t spite me and put Miror B’s theme in a random day lol
 

TAnimal

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
244
Arle - 0%: more likely going to have a Spirit Event planned sometime in the Near Future

Rayman 100%: Ubisoft (Rayman), Koei-Tecmo (Ryu Hayabusa) and Bethesda (Doomguy) looking to have Fighter Packs planned for 2021 because of DLC Support with Ubisoft Mii Costumes (Assassin Creed & Rabbids), Bethesda Mii Costume (Vault Boy) and Fire Emblem Three Houses Content made by Koei-Tecmo for Smash Ultimate

Lloyd Irving - 0%: Mii Costume more likely to return than a Playable character.
 
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Jave

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Abstain on Lloyd. I know very little about him and his series (only played Abyss).

Rayman

Chance: 5%
Want: 10%


Honestly, I used to really support Rayman back in the day but with Ubisoft barely doing anything with the character lately I've kinda lost interest in him. I wouldn't mind him joining, but with only three spots left in the roster his chances only get slimmer, and there are quite a few characters I'd like to see before him, including...

Arle Nadja

Chance: 55%
Want: 100%


The Young Magician who is the star of the puzzle series with an actual lore. She's a character that could legitimately surprise everyone, and I feel a lot of people are sleeping on her. Right now, it feels that all the stars have aligned for her to be in. New game recently released? Check. Major event for the series (30th anniversary on 2021) that can be timed for Smash DLC? Check. Moveset potential? Check. History with Nintendo? Check. Hugely popular in at least one major territory? Check. Owner Company currently trying to push the series? Check. Adding Arle to Smash now simply feels right. She represents a genre that is still not represented in Smash through a series with a playable character (Dr. Mario is still a Mario character which is not a puzzle series) and she even has the Magical Girl archetype which isn't a thing in Smash either (Zelda is probably the closest but she's not quite there).

I think it's all up to whether SEGA gets another character or not. If they do, I feel her only real competition is Eggman (Sephiroth surely left the door wide open), but I feel representing a new-to-Smash series makes more sense for SEGA, and that's the route they'll go with.

My Want being 100% should not be a surprise. She's my most wanted character, with only Phoenix Wright coming close in second place.

Predictions:
Crash - 65%
Tracer - 10%
 

Cutie Gwen

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Trails Crossbelle arc

Chance: 0% This sounds especially harsh for a character like Lloyd, but I'll explain. Lloyd Irving only has one thing going for him, the fact he's a popular request, so much so that Sakurai acknowledged his popularity with a Mii Costume, even saying "Who else would fit as a Tales rep than Lloyd?" He's still widely popular, so much so that he's probably one of the most requested characters who still hasn't been playable, which makes sense as Symphonia was seen as a big deal due to the Gamecube lacking many RPGs. Sadly, Lloyd has a major problem, while his spot as the go to Tales character has started fading away with Yuri Lowell, Lloyd still has a Mii Costume we haven't seen come back. I cannot see a reality where his Mii Costume doesn't come back and it doesn't make sense to have a character and a costume of the same guy, I feel Monster Hunter's an exception here as the hunters aren't characters but rather builds, though if we get those costumes back with a character who isn't Monster Hunter then it's chances are dead too.

Want: 30% "Hey Gwen, you've been stanning Velvet for quite a while, surely you'd enjoy Lloyd too, so why the low rating?" You may be asking, but sadly I really can't care much for Lloyd. I tried playing Symphonia a while ago and got to the part where I got Regal or whatever his name is, but I ultimately dropped the game because it was just so boring. I'm willing to put up with crap gameplay so me not liking the gameplay of Symphonia wasn't an issue, but the story didn't really grab me. It starts out with an interesting ritual and invasion by oppressors, but no matter how much farther I got, my interest never got higher to the point I realized I wasn't enjoying myself. I didn't like the characters either, Genis was eh, though I hear I stopped before he finally Became Interesting, I disliked Zelos, who's apparantly the same, I hated Colette because her writing about putting all the world's responsibilities on her shoulders and discarding her own personal issues hit too close for comfort and I ****ing hated Raine. Lloyd though? He was just kinda there. He never really grew much and is a very basic character, though I do have a soft spot for characters who're wise yet dumb, as Lloyd's able to pull a fast one on people surprisingly well, best seen with his iceyhot coffee and having a word game with an NPC where he frustrated her by deliberately picking words that ended with an L. Symphonia's writing was also surprisingly nuanced, willing to show just how ugly racism is instead of the cheap 'racism bad' PSAs that you'd typically see, showing concentration camps, how normalized racism can and will get if left alone, etc. My softspot for emotionally intelligent dumbasses and the nuanced take does make me hope Sakurai would at least make an interesting moveset as every Lloyd moveset I've seen bores me to tears, especially Smash Flash, so I ultimately want to like Lloyd so I

Reimu

Chance: 0% Honestly I cannot see Rayman happening at all, Rayman seems to be more niche when it comes to platforming mascots, a shockingly low demand from Japan which I think is also why Nintendo published the game there, being overshadowed immensely by it's own spinoff, the Rabbids, who are ridiculously huge and have never left, so much so that they crossed over with Mario while Rayman was completely absent in Mario and Rabbids and worst yet, Mii Costumes. Hoo boy, the Mii Costumes. We got not only Altaïr, but Rabbid costumes back to back. I feel that if Ubisoft was already getting negotiated for 2 seperate IPs, one of which being a character adored by Japan, then they must have not had any characters in the game. After all, why not release them alongside a Ubisoft character instead of Byleth?

Want: 30% I don't remember much with most of the Rayman games honestly. I played the original on the GBA, which sucked, I played 3 on the GBA, which I remember nothing off, I played 3 on the ps2 which I remember liking, but nothing specific outside of the cool power ups and I own Legends, which I'm considering selling as it's not really interesting to me. I also think Rayman's moveset wouldn't use the power ups from 3 and if it did, I doubt he'd use the beartrap hookshots which I loved oh so much. Similar to Lloyd, I do have confidence that Sakurai would at the very least make something interesting, so hey, maybe it'd end up working after all.

The girl from Dr. Slump

Chance: 5% Puyo Puyo's easily one of Sega's most used IPs these days alongside Sonic and Yakuza, but Arle specifically has a major edge, she's a very popular request in Japan from what I've seen and even gets a decent amount of love here in the West, some people will cite that the creator objected to Arle fighting but that was specifically like, punching and kicking, which can be worked around due to her magic, Carbunkle and Puyos. Arle originating from an RPG series also helps a lot for creating a moveset, even if similar to Terry, it's not what people know her for so I really see this working out for her, though I don't have the confidence to say she's got a 1 in 10 chance of happening.

Want: 45% I don't like Puyo Puyo as it's really not my kind of game due to the nature of puzzle games and the emphasis on combos, which is a shame as I do like everything else I've seen about it, from the cute art style, cool designs, the fantastic dialogue seen in the Switch games and the fact that this series' mascot has canonically decapitated a dude, like, holy ****, that's amazing. Beyond that, I'm not super familiar but Smash having more magic users isn't a bad thing and I'm very curious as to how Puyos would be incorporated, stage control being the obvious answer but what's Arle's reward for making chains in the match? Buffs? Explosions that harm the opponent if they're too close? Colour depending attacks? Do chains matter a lot like in the games? She sounds so interesting and while I'd prefer Kiryu or a character from SMT, you won't hear me complain about this. Unless she ends up obnoxious to fight of course, but that's a different story

Velvet Crowe x15
Zagreus x15
 

mariofan48

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 4, 2010
Messages
179
NNID
mariorocks4life
I don't know much about Arle or Lloyd so I can't comment on them. But I can comment on what I believe Rayman's chances to be.

I would like to start this off by saying that I don't think Rayman is a lock for Smash, frankly, no character is a lock. But I do feel like Rayman has a lot going for him, and very little going against him. I would say that he has a 50% chance to be in. The only reason I say 50% is because he's most likely competing with Crash for the spot, while Crash is bigger in Japan (honestly I don't know the validity of this statement because I feel like people just say that he's more popular in Japan even though none of us actually go on Japanese gaming sites and see what the actual consensus is on these characters) and a highly requested character, Rayman has a lot of merit because of the spectacular relationship Nintendo and Ubisoft currently have, which makes him pretty likely to show up, I feel. I think now is the best chance he's ever had. Remember that Minecraft Steve was in talks for 5 years, so just because he isn't in yet doesn't mean that the deal hasn't happened, especially since the Ubisoft costumes with Byleth means that Smash discussion has happened between the two of them.

TL:DR:

Chance: 50%

Want: 100%

My want rating is 100% because I grew up with Rayman back in the PS1 days. Rayman 2 and Rayman 3 are some of my favorite games of all time, and I have a huge attachment to the character. His return to form with Origins and Legends were also really really good.
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,100
Location
Georgia
Arle
Nothing has changes in or out of her favor. I'll jist repost my most recent rating for her:
Arle
Chance: 99%
The series is very popular in Japan, influential to the puzzle game genre, and Arle is alongside the other highly requested characters we've gotten up to this point. Multiple Puyo games have come to the Switch since the console's launch, with more assuredly coming in the future, leading to her gaining a presence in the West, something I think really helps her odds. I'm certain Nintendo would pick her, SEGA would want her in, and Sakurai would have no issues including her. Personally I'd say she's nearly on-par with Simon in terms of characters that have clear reasons to be in.
Want: 1%
My opinion of her hasn’t really changed too much since speculation started. Mean Bean Machine was a fun childhood memory of mine, but I'm not too invested in the game at this point. Sakurai can make a pretty sick moveset for any character as he's demonstrated so far, but I don't think the gameplay of Puyo has anything that could be brought to Smash that I'd be interested in.
It's the same deal every time she's rated. I honestly wonder if she's goin to be the final reveal at this point.
----------------
Lloyd
Chance: 21%
It's entirely possible his Mii Costume will return as the only piece of Tales content in the game. I dont find it unreasonable that Nintendo would skip the franchise when selecting Smash DLC; there are bigger franchises still up for grabs. I guess at least compared to other games in the Tales franchise, he's at least been represented in Smash before.
Want: 70%
On one hand, I mained him in SSF2. On the other, if I really wanted to play as him I would just play SSF2. He'd be a solid choice, but there's other characters I'd consider bigger dreams of mine.
----------------
Rayman
Chance: 1%
Rayman would appeal to mascot platformer fans, but offers little to Nintendo outside of that. iMO Ubisoft got as much as they were gonna get in Ultimate at this junction
Next Smash I could see Ubisoft getting a playable character, but even then Rabbids and Assassins Creed would give him a run for his money.
Want: 5%
He's playable in 2 fangames so if I really wanted to I'd just play those. There's bigger dream characters I want to see before him. At the very least, he's a character Im familiar with.
 

BowserKing

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
693
Location
winnipeg
Lloyd

Chance: 30% While he might have a chance to be playable and I support the most likely Namco Rep, there is a very high chance of becoming a Mii Costume as well, given the track record of Mii Costumes returning. But let she not let that rule anything out, at least not yet.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as and I can see him and Pac-Man team up in a match. Overall, he would be a decent Smash Ross Rep.

Ray-Man

Chance: 25%. Due to Min-Min being playable, Ray-Man has gotten a boost of a chance of being playable. He is also the most likely Ubisoft Rep to get in as well.

Want: 100%. Ray-Man would totally be fun to play as, with his unique abilities, he would be a great fit. I can see him, Mario, Snake, Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Cloud and either Banjo and Kazooie or Steve in a free for all. Overall, Ray-Man wouldn’t be one of the best choices for a Smash Bros Rep.

Arle

Chance: 20%. Given that she got a new game recently, her chance has gotten a bit of a boost. With that said, there are quite a bit of Sega reps that would make her chance difficult, but then again, we have been surprised before.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, and I can see her team up with Kirby and Sonic in a match. Overall, she would make a decjt Smash Bros Rep, perhaps even more.

Prediction: Tracer (30%) and Crash (50%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza
 

Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
1,504
Not gonna do my writeup yet, but just to make sure we don't hear the tired no violence thing anymore...

Taken from an interview with Mizuki Hosoyamada, the current director of Puyo.


View attachment 299225

Make of this what you will (no, it's not a disconfirmation - he was directly asked about Arle in Smash, what was he supposed to say) but the concerns about Arle in a fighting game are completely null and void. Just wanted to share this to prevent the potential headaches if it needed explaining down the line. I saw this alluded to before ( Jomosensual Jomosensual ) so I wanted to provide.
Ah there we go, thank you. Really did not feel like digging that up so I appreciate it
 

Bobthealligator

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
345
Arle:
Pros:
Big in Japan
Nintendo has highlighted PuyoPuyo in the partner showcases, which shows they care about the franchise.
Arle is a very recognisable character.
Cons:
Moveset potential would not translate into Smash well, Arle has appeared in games other than Puyo Puyo, so it's definately possible to add her. But then she wouldn't be Arle from PuyoPuyo, she'd be Arle from that Puyo Puyo spinoff RPG that even some fans of the character may not know about. And then you have to ask yourself what the point was.

Lloyd:
Pros:
Tales is a contender for the biggest JRPG franchise not yet in Smash
Recognisable
Had a decent following in the Smash Ballot.
Cons:
Yuri is both more relevant and more popular than Lloyd
I rather expect that there is something going on behind the scenes involving Namco characters. There haven't been any since Pac Man which is odd considering that they made the game.
2 of the last 3 characters came with a Namco mii costume, wouldn't they have released them alongside Lloyd if he was in.

Rayman:
Pros:
Decently popular request
Nintendo and Ubisoft have a really good relationship, with multiple crossovers, a lot of support for the Switch and it's worth mentioning that Nintendo used to publish Rayman in Japan. They're also possibly the only AAA developer to have a Switch exclusive and no characters in Smash.
Cons:
Western characters are rare in Smash, making up close to 1% of the roster.
Rayman is basically a non entity in Japan.
Possible overlap with Min Min and Sephiroth over their long reach.

In conclusion, I don't think Arle has a shot at all. Lloyd is a weird one that makes a lot of sense on paper but I just can't see it happening. I do think that people underestimate Rayman somewhat. I don't think he has an amazing chance but I'd definately consider him more likely than Crash. I still don't think we're getting another Western character after Steve.
 
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waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,288
Location
Duwang
Will abstain on Lloyd

Reiman
Chance: 22.5%
Most are aware of the Ubisoft-Nintendo relationship and it being a big point in Rayman's favor. Many should also know he used to be a highly requested character back in the ballot era. If Nintendo wanted another one of those big fan requests, Rayman certainly wouldn't be a bad choice. Despite this, confidence and hype around this character really seems to have really died down over time and I don't entirely understand why. Perhaps many jumped over to the Crash train? I know a huge argument against Rayman is him being devoid of any Japanese relevance and I understand that. I don't think it's an absolute dealbreaker frankly since Japan can still find appeal in all the other DLC characters but I get it.

But then I hear people mention Ubisoft not caring about him and that confuses me. Obviously Rayman isn't given as much attention by his company than something like the AC franchise but by no means should that keep him out of Smash. Need I point to Banjo-Kazooie who, despite being a neclected IP, made it on the roster via DLC anyway? Let's also not forget Rayman already has a precence in Ultimate as a spirit alongside the Rabbids. Even more noteworthy are the three Rayman series trophies in Smash 4, those being the sole Ubisoft representation in that game, not even the Rabbids. Finally the Ubisoft bot Sam at some point mentioned hoping for Rayman as DLC, which has been removed since then. Some people like to see that as a hint but at the very least it should debunk the claim that Ubisoft wouldn't care about having Rayman playable and should also establish him as Ubisoft's personal pick over an AC character or Rabbids

Speaking of which, some point at the Altair and Rabbid costumes as proof that Ubisoft won't recieve a character, believing they'd be held back for a Ubisoft challenger pack, which I also don't get. Capcom characters like Phoenix and Dante are brought up very frequently in speculation but I don't see anyone going around claiming they have no chance because the Megaman costumes have already returned. Same thing goes for another SEGA or Bamco character. You could argue that costumes returned when those companies already had fighters but Koei Tecmo already has content in the base in the form of the Fatal Frame Assist but that doesn't stop Ryu Hayabusa from being regarded as one of the most likely DLC candidates. Somebody who uses this argument against Rayman, please explain to me where the differences lie. I'd appreciate it.

Want: 100%
I just have alot of nostalgia for the character. I've probably even been wanting him for longer than Bandana Waddle Dee. I know the franchise is a bit dormant at the moment and not much popular by Japanese people but it still remains beloved by many. Legends in particular is critically acclaimed despite me finding it a bit overrated. Some detractors think he'd be boring but I think there's some potential when the character is basically a bunch of seperate hitboxes.

Arnold
Chance: 30%
Puyo Puyo seems to be in a good place after Puyo Puyo Tetris introduced a lot of people to the series. The franchise is hugely popular in Japan, iconic and influential in the genre. Arle does seem to be a Japanese fan request as well. On the other hand I don't think PPT2 fits the timing and I'm reluctant to say SEGA will get another rep but I do think Arle is probably the likeliest.

Want: 60%
I like me some Puyo Puyo. Arle would certainly be a unique character that would bring some huge puzzle representation to Smash. I still wouldn't say I'm hugely invested in the series and I would still rather have Eggman as the next SEGA character and I also own Yakuza now so Arle might soon have to settle for third but I trust that she'd be a ton of fun.

Crash: 61.29%
Tracer: 10.85%
Henry Stickmin x15
 
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