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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,111
Location
Scotland
If the FP vol 2 characters, or most of them, were deemed as "extras" than I do not imagine them being big deal characters owned by big corporations, such as Sora and Chief. If the budget and manpower was really reduced then I frankly don't think Nintendo would even try approaching Disney.
you know weve got a character from the same company as chief
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Fixed schedule part 11: Subtarean Enigmas of the Heart

Layton


Chances: 16%

So, Layton. He has good things going for him. First of all, he is a Level 5 character, a company with very good ties with Nintendo, and yet no characters in Smash, though it doesn't confirm a Level 5 character in any way, though I still say that it's overall better to have that than not having that. One problem for Layton that comes with being a Level 5 character is that it puts him in direct competition with Jibanyan, though Layton has advantages on that side, for example his games sold overall better than Yo-Kai Watch, and he was not only requested for longer, but also he has more requests from my experience, on top of Layton having more legacy than Yo-Kai Watch, though Yo-Kai Watch is bigger as a multimedia series thanks to the anime and movies. He is very possibly hapening, though it's also possible that the recent problems Level 5 had over being international could hold him back, I do not really think so, since his legacy, popularity, and link to Nintendo should be enough if Nintendo wants Layton in Smash.

Want: 70%

I'm not the biggest fan of Proffesor Layton, but he could still be nice to have, especialy if Phoenix Wright (who, as stated in the day where he was rated, is one of my most wanted) is also in, allowing to recreate the Proffesor Layton x Phoenix Wright crossover but in Smash. Not only that, but he could have a cool moveset that could include not only his fencing skills, but also reference many of the puzzles that are trough his series, making his moveset be both on the conventional and the unconventional side, which would be extremly cool to have. A stage from one of his game could also be pretty cool, and the music would be pretty cool even if most of it would probably get the Minecraft treatment, except the one playing in this spoilery cutscene
Seriously, the music in this cutscene is so good. So relaxing, yet so tense. Perfect for Layton in a fighting game.

Sora

Chances: 5%

Sora is an interesting case because while he is directly linked to Square Enix, he is also owned by Disney. However, while I don't think that most SE characters would really do anything to his chances, I feel that Sephiroth (and Final Fantasy) is too tied to KH for it to not matter. If it would have been Lara Croft, a Bravely Default character, or even Neku (who also directly appears in KH), I don't think that it would affect Sora's chances, but like I said right before, Sephiroth and FF are too tied to KH for it to not matter to me. However I don't believe the "the negociations for Sora fell trough so they had to settle for Sephiroth". Yeah right. Nintendo went for Sephiroth because he's Sephiroth, not because he was the second best thing after Sora. Now, let's go over the other point of stuff about Sora: Disney. Disney doesn't care all that much about the KH ip from what we know, so while they're usualy very directive over their ips, KH is an exception to the usual, as after all, it's not one of teir biggest moeny makers like Avengers, Star Wars, or the Disney Princesses, and well, as we know, they don't have big troubles letting the characters from those ips apearing in video games crossover, like Fortnite or Kingdom Hearts itself. In fact, KH became a thing because Square Soft and Disney of Japan shared a building, and one day,the ceo of both companies were together in the elevator and disscussed or something, DIsney wouldn't heave problems giving the KH ips while letting Sakurai do what he wants with Sora based of what we know. Now, what they would ask for is money, and that's very possibly the dealbreaker here, especialy since Sephiroth took a lot of budget. Coupled with how the pass doesn't need more big hitters to sell since we already have Steve and Sephiroth, I do not think that Sora is likely now, even if he's still possible. Also if the Mickey Keychain is a massive problem that would prevent him to get in (somehow), then just give him Oathkeeper as his keyblade for Smash, it's the most popular KH original keyblade and pretty much almost the same as the Kingdom Key, just more magic oriented.

Want: 100%

Sora is my number 3 most wanted. I absolutely love Kingdom Hearts, it's one of my favorite series in gaming of all time alongside Touhou, SMT, Zelda, and DMC. Not only that, but Sora is also one of my favoite character of the series, he's in fact tied with Roxas as my favorite KH character. While I'm in the "Sora fans that are already satisfied with Sephiroth because I'm also an FF fan and Sephi is awesome", I am in no way, shape, or form against Sora joining as one of the final 3. His moveset could be so fun with all of the stuff he can do, between his basic combos, his spells, his techs, his commands, his drive forms, his keyblade transformation, and also all of the movement options he could have as that's a pretty big thing in both KH and Smash alike. Not only that, but also a KH stage could be so great, Hollow Bastion/Radiant Garden would be so cool to fight on if they're a giant stage, but Twilight Town would also be so great, nd so would The World that Never Was, Destiny Island, the Keyblade Graveyard, and Scala Ad Caelum, there's just so many options of great place to take from for a stage. And the music. It wold be so amazing, just for the fact that it would be more Yoo Shimomura music in Smash, but even beyond that, her work in KH is so phenomenal, and to hear Rage Awakened, Vectors to the Heavens, the Other Promise, and possibly so many more of her amazing tracks in Smash would be so incredible. Though I will say that it's a shame that now, Sora can't be the one to bring One-Winged Angel with him as a track because it would have been hilarious.

Nominations

Madeline mii x20

Predictions

Waluigi: 22.7%

Isaac: 16.4%
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Simple and Clean is the way that you make me feel tonight....

Chance: 40%

Looks like I'm one of the outliers. Look, I think we are all aware of Sora's merits. Basically, he has everything you would want in a Smash candidate. So instead of repeating all of that again I will go straight into what I really want to say because I highly disagree with a lot of these arguments I'm seeing.

First, people think that Sora is unlikely because of Disney and Imran Kahn's comments. I will echo what GoodGrief said. Where's the evidence? I see no strong evidence pointing to Nintendo and Disney not having a friendly relationship. I mean they are not super close but they seem to have a good enough relationship. Disney has ported some games to the Switch and I believe they have done some other projects together so I don't buy into the idea that Nintendo is trying to avoid Disney or something like that. I get that Disney is very protective of their franchises, but how is this a big obstacle? They are still a company, and they make deals like any other company. I don't see why they wouldn't listen to Nintendo at least. As for Kahn's opinion on Sora, I am skeptical. He did say that he was speculating and while I don't doubt his journalistic ability, even he was unsure of exactly what happened so I'm not putting much stock into his words.

Second, I want to discuss how Sephiroth affects Sora. I do have to say that this does complicate things. Because while Sora is owned by Disney, it's very likely Nintendo will have to talk to Square, whom they already have talked to in regards to Sephiroth. I've had to ponder about this, and I will say that I don't think Nintendo would mind talking to the same company again, especially since again Square is not the owner of Kingdom Hearts so they would still be talking to a different company (Disney). And I say this as someone who believes in the idea that third parties will not double dip in the same pass. But I think this is a different situation. So overall I think this might (keyword: Might) hurt Sora, but it is definitely not a death blow.

Overall, I'm still confident in Sora. I will repeat what I said in my previous ratings: Sora's chances will mostly lie in two factors:
1. If Nintendo is willing to pay the high fees for Sora, because I don't doubt he would be very expensive.
2. If Sakurai is willing to either only represent half of Kingdom Hearts OR make a one time exception and include some Disney content.

With all that said, his chance score drops from a 50 to 40 mostly because I'm only expecting one more big character and plus my confidence for a lot of characters in general have dropped.

Want: 75%

Same as before. I've only played some of Kingdom Hearts 1. But I still think Sora would be a great choice. A character who focuses on magic mixed in with aerial combos sounds real fun. While it might be hard to receive the rights to, I would love to hear Simple and Clean in Smash. Sora is arguably one of the biggest characters not playable in Smash yet so his inclusion would be a huge deal.

_______________________

The guy who teamed up with Phoenix Wright

Chance: 45%

Nothing has changed here. While Level 5 has entered a downward spiral in recent years, that doesn't change the fact that they have a strong history with Nintendo and Layton is their undisputed frontrunner. I can keep talking about Layton's merits, but like with Sora there are some arguments I want to tackle.

While I only skimmed through the previous posts so I'm not sure if anyone brought this up, but there has been doom and gloom around the fact that Level 5's NA departments have completely shut down. This has caused people to think that Layton's chances are grim for this pass. While I do think this hurts his chances for future Smash DLC and games, the reality is that he is completely fine for this pass. That is because this news came out about a year after the pass was already decided. So as long as Nintendo didn't catch wind of the shutdowns while they were choosing the DLC, Level 5 should be all good. So I think people have really blown this out of proportion and I even saw some Layton fans give up which made my jaw drop to the floor. He still has a chance for this pass!!

Another argument I've seen which I think is heavily flawed is the logic of "Layton should have been in by now. He makes so much sense so the fact that he is not in yet puts his chances into doubt." Some people say this same thing about Hayabusa and it drives me up the wall. People, think about it. For all we know Layton could be next. There are factors that make "obvious" characters be delayed or there might be other characters who simply have more priority. Plus the same logic could apply to many characters. Just because he hasn't happened by now, that doesn't mean he couldn't come soon or even be the next character.

Other than that, I don't have much to add. I think he makes a lot of sense and out of all Japanese game companies with no playable characters, I think Level 5 is easily one of the top candidates.

Want: 60%

Same as last time. I've only played a couple minutes of one of the games, but I feel like I know enough about him to give him this rating. I know he can handle his own as I believe he took on a group of enemies by himself. He is also a puzzle rep and an investigator so he would stand out in the roster and I heard his games are very good. My best friend is a Layton fan so I've heard a lot of things here and there and I'm curious to try out his games. It feels like I'm starting to ramble on now but basically Layton is a character I've admired from afar and I think he is a charming character but I cannot give him a higher score than this until I've actually put some time into one of his games. He would be a solid choice though.

Predictions:
Waluigi - 24%
Isaac - 22%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x10
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,623
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Sora

Chance: 50%


While I believe Sephiroth may have hurt the chances of many of his Square Enix brethren, Sora is technically owned by Disney. And Disney has shown they are willing to work with Nintendo on multiple occasions. Some may scoff at the size of the company, but let's not forget Microsoft was also thought to be an impossible company to collaborate with on Smash, alas, then we got not 1, but 2 characters from it. Kingdom Hearts is a well beloved series in the gaming hemisphere and one of the top selling JRPG series. Sakurai himself has shown reverence towards the series, so he's certainly aware of the demand for Sora.

Want: 100%


Kingdom Hearts is an excellent series. I've had many great memories with it and tons of fun. Would I like to see Sora duke it out with the likes of Mario, Sonic, Cloud (again), Pikachu, Hero, etc? Of course I would. The guys already known for crossing over into other worlds, let's bring him into one more.

Professor Layton

Chance: 50%


The Layton series is a well known and beloved series on the Nintendo DS. Much like Phoenix Wright and Cooking Mama, many a casual gamer might have even confused him for a Nintendo character himself in their childhood years because of how closely associated the series was with the console. The demand is certainly there, I could see this going either way.

Want: 90%

I like the Layton series quite a bit, and I think he would fit great among the cast. While I'm slightly more familiar with the likes of Ace Attorney, I would not be upset at all at his inclusion and would be delighted just the same.
 

Commander_Alph

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 20, 2019
Messages
1,792
Abstain on Sora, my Layton rating will come out later so I need someone to notify me if the day is almost over.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Rex
36.67% Chance - 57.88% Want
The winner of predictions was Louie G. Louie G. with 36.75%
Rex relinquishes his place as the likeliest character, to be succeeded by Hayabusa. He remains the likeliest first party character, and fifth likeliest overall.

Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon
35.68% Chance - 28.87% Want
The winner of predictions was BowserKing BowserKing with a precise 35.00%
With a personal record in both scores, this concept makes it to 5th likeliest. But it can't get out of the bottom 5 wanted, where it now ranks as number 4.

Wooper
20.81% Chance - 62.69% Want
Nobody wins extra noms because most people didn't actually believe we were going to rate Wooper so there's only 2 different predictions.

Lloyd
29.17% Chance - 56.82% Want
The winner of predictions was zferolie zferolie with a precise 29.00%

Arle
38.16% Chance - 64.44% Want
The winner of predictions was Commander_Alph Commander_Alph with a precise 32.00%
Arle is the 4th likeliest character overall (and for third parties, since with Rex's demotion the top 4 in chance are all non-Nintendo).

Rayman
14.23% Chance - 64.33% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi with 13.88%

Crash
51.43% Chance - 83.65% Want
The winner of predictions was BowserKing BowserKing with a precise 50.00%

Tracer
12.49% Chance - 36.40% Want
The winner of predictions was Louie G. Louie G. with a precise 12.00%

List of those with extra noms

3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus 5
Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
Blankiturayman Blankiturayman 10
BowserKing BowserKing 10
Commander_Alph Commander_Alph 5
DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername DaUsername 107
Delzethin Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 83
Inue Houji Inue Houji 20
Jomosensual Jomosensual 5
Louie G. Louie G. 15
Lyncario Lyncario 25
Mr. MR Mr. MR 70
NintenRob NintenRob 10
Nemuresu Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed Ninjaed 20
Perkilator Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 Ridrool64 15
SKX31 SKX31 5
Troykv Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi 64
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 5
zferolie zferolie 5
 

SWSU

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 22, 2020
Messages
127
Sora:
Chances: 2%
I felt his odds were always a longshot before Sephiroth, and his inclusion REALLY Hurt Sora's chances for reasons everyone knows, and added with the Disney situation.... Just seems like everything is working against Sora's favor. Now is he completely deconfirmed? No. But him coming now would be one of the biggest blindsides in Smash Bros History.

Want: 75% While he can technically be described as "Another Anime Swordsman" His Status in Gaming is still Iconic, and if we have to get another one of them. I'd much rather it be Sora.

Professor Layton:
Chances: 10%
This one might be hard to explain, but I think Layton has the "Little Brother Effect" Similar to Spyro with Crash. In this case, I feel Layton is the "Little Brother" to Phoenix Wright who seems to be much more prominent when it comes to fame. Meaning whatever Phoenix Wrights chances are, I think Laytons by Extension have to be lower, since I would be shocked if he made it in before Phoenix Wright. I could see a Mii Brawler Outfit for him though.

Want: 40% I don't think he's very exciting. I know he has a fanbase, but personally I don't really have a strong attachment to him.
 

MisterMike

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
2,252
-= Sora-loser =-
Chance: 0%
From all the insider chatter about negotiations for Sora falling through due to Disney, to the whole legal question mark regarding who owns him, to the Seven Squares Leak, to the rumors of difficulty regarding bringing Cloud back, to him being limited time DLC for that one Final Fantasy spinoff game on the 3DS, to Sephiroth striding his one-winged ass into the game like the chad he is, there's so goddamn much going against Sora at this point that I honestly pity the poor fools who still hold out hope for him.

Could he still happen? Sure he could. But with only three slots left for DLC (I honestly don't believe we'll be getting a third Fighters Pass) and plenty of other characters who have much less going against them and all the more reason to make it in at this juncture, I'm not holding my breath, and frankly neither should anyone else. Then again, I don't seem to be in the minority here.

Want: 50%
Don't really care one way or the other about him. If he gets in, okay. If he doesn't, oh well.

Abstain on Layton and his dapper as **** hat.
 

Bobthealligator

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
600
From all the insider chatter about negotiations for Sora falling through due to Disney.
Considering that Imran Khan, who has proven himself to bot have insider information with that "Byleth reused Monster Hunter' s moveset" bullcrap. I'm inclined not to believe this. I think it's much more likely that Nintendo just didn't approach Disney in the first place.
 
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Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
265
Abstain for now, might rate later if there's still time.

Predictions
Waluigi: 12.7%
Isaac: 15.3%

Nominations
Beat x5
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Abstain on Layton.

Sora, though, I'll bite.

Chance: 5%. He's another exception as I really can't see him coming with Sephiroth, both on the Square Enix front and the "hits the same notes as Sephiroth front". While I don't believe that Sephiroth is a "replacement" for a failed attempt at Sora, I do believe that they could have tried for Sora and failed due to Disney. Sora's a character of extremes, with outstanding weaknesses and absurd strengths at the same time, but here I feel like his weaknesses won out. Plus, even then I only think he has one chance of being added as an E3 2021 character. If he is not that he is not in the game. No way would he be given a "throwaway" reveal, it's Sora from Kingdom ****ing Hearts.

Want: 50%. Kingdom Hearts is a series that isn't for me, but I see no reason to hate the idea of Sora getting in. I really don't care if he comes with Disney content or just stuff original to KH, Smash is still Smash to me even with content from cartoons, anime or whatnot. Plus he'd probably be fun to play as, and would make about 100 people happy for every single person he upsets. That's the mark of a good pick to me.

TF2 rep x max. Waluigi will be split down the middle between people who think he's a lock and people who think Assist Trophies are out. 24.75%, I expect the no-AT's crowd to win. (The Mario Anniversary and Wahoominati might also get brought up.) Isaac is the same deal, except between those who believe a new game is coming and those who will believe it when they see it. 28.63% since he tends to outperform Waluigi for some ungodly reason.
 

Powerman293

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2015
Messages
899
Oooh.. this'll be interesting.

Sora

Chance: 50%. I know that's pretty high compared to others on here in the single percentages but hear me out. Sora is a character of extremes, he has a lot going for him that would blow other competition out of the water but a lot against him that would be the death knell of other characters. He's a really popular fan pick outside of the insular community but Disney owns him and don't seem to be interested in video games. He has a rich amount of source material to pull from compared to many other characters but not including him with Disney stuff may make him feel incomplete. He has a unique niche in gaming but also may overlap with Sephiroth a fair bit. I feel like any one of these factors could completley push him to getting in or stop him before discussions even begin.

Want: 100%. Maybe it's because I've been playing a ton of KH3 recently, but he has INSANE moveset potiental. Flowmotion, various magic spells, keyblade transformations, form changes, reaction commands, and finishers that would make him stand out from the standard swordie. There's plenty of Kingdom hearts original stuff that Sora could come with to avoid any squabbling over Donald and Goofy. Also helps that a good amount of the KH spin offs don't even have Donald and Goofy in them yet he feels just fine. I'm not gonna go on about how he "deserves" a spot in Smash becausae I think everyone can somewhat agree on his legacy in gaming.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,965
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Ending the day now since discussion has kind of peetered out.

Today we got a Camelot Assist Trophy day. I don't think these two need much of an introduction. Waluigi and Isaac are pretty well known in speculation. But how well will they fare today? Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow we have the final character rating (but not final ratings) of the fixed schedule: Master Chief and Kratos. Predict them.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Waluigi

Chance: 5% -
With Min Min I don't have much hope in assist trophy upgrades but Waluigi is the one exception. Considering the general outcry from his lack of inclusion (exceptional even for assist trophies) to the point of outlets like Townhall news commenting on it. Even official statements from Nintendo, he really was that big. Now that we have a DLC pass in the making that wasn't planned alongside the base game, this has to be Waluigi's best shot. Granted, now that the prospects of a first party-oriented pass are gone, it does hurt Waluigi's chances. He could end up as the obligatory end of DLC cycle first party character, and honestly it'd be a hilarious publicity stunt to have Waluigi be the final character. Honestly, the fan demand is there, and Nintendo knows this. Sakurai has expressed disinterest in him, but who's choosing the characters this time around? If Nintendo wants Waluigi, Nintendo gets Waluigi. Still, even then, Waluigi's got a mountain to climb, but he's definitely got a shot, even if a small one.

Want: 100% - One of my most wanted! His personality and moves would be absolutely hilarious, and no doubt he'd come with some great content. He's not just a meme character, Waluigi essentially embodies two major pillars of the Mario franchise: The party and sports games, and both currently go basically unrepresented in Smash. That alone justifies his inclusion, and no doubt we'd get an incredibly colorful and wild stage alongside him, fitting of his personality! Bonus points if it's casino or pinball-themed. The fan demand is there, I have plenty of history with the character, he's got a lot of potential, why not?!



Isaac

Chance: 0.5% -
Giving him a .5 in the slim chance that he's chosen but I'm not betting on him at all. He too has fan demand of his own, don't get me wrong, but his series has been dormant for years and he's not the deconfirmation that made absolute waves. And even if we get Waluigi, I don't see Nintendo double-dipping on assist upgrades. And we still have yet to see anything from that supposed new Golden Sun game Isaac's fans have been hinting at. That, combined with the recent Mario Sports trademark, I really wouldn't get my hopes up. Nintendo just doesn't seem to be interested in Golden Sun right now, and likely have no reason to revive it, given that they have a new JRPG darling in Xenoblade. Isaac still has a slim chance but I really don't buy any of the arguments in his favor.

Want: 10% - I have no history with the Golden Sun franchise and JRPGs have already gotten a lot of love in recent Smash DLC so I can't say I'm too interested in seeing him in Smash. My score used to be higher since I felt bad for his fans, but over time that has...dwindled. Golden Sun did have some unfortunate timing issues with its' final game, but in the end it really hasn't made the mark a lot of other Nintendo franchises have. Most people only really know it for Smash, and nothing else. Now, I wouldn't be upset if he got in, just kinda neutral, but don't expect Isaac anywhere near my priority list any time soon.



Nominations:
4x Strategy Rep x10
Concept: Phoenix Wright as Miles Edgeworth's alt/echo x10
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
Master Chief - 28.44% - This hinges on the possibility of a third pass, but with us having two Microsoft characters I'm expecting a lot of confidence in Chief.
Kratos - 16.18% - Expecting some overrates, but thanks to Fortnite leading to a piece of Kratos media going multiplatform that will definitely help him out.
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
10,569
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Abstain on Isaac for want.

Chance for both: 0%
Sorry, but I still believe Min-Min throws Assist Trophies' chance out the window. I've beaten my beliefs like a dead horse, and I stand by them until I'm (miraculously) prove wrong; even after Steve "rework every stage for the mining gimmick" Minecraft of all characters, I don't think Sakurai wants to take that risk again to basically fart out a character who was already an Assist Trophy in the same game. It just seems like wasted dev time.

I've been crucified for this belief time and again, because...yeah, to be fair, I'm no genius on game development. But again, I still think Min-Min is kinda telling that Sakurai doesn't even think it's worth it.

Want for Waluigi: 50%
I wouldn't necessarily hate Waluigi by any means. He's not my first choice for a 1st party rep, but I can understand why he's so consistently requested.

I mean, I at least cared enough to make my own moveset for him (and on the same day he gets rated, no less.

Master Cheif: 65%
Kratos: 50%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5
 

SWSU

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Dec 22, 2020
Messages
127
Waluigi:
Chances: 2%
Probably too generous, but like others have said and likely will say. One of the Only Fan Rules I believe is that Assist Trophies will not be playable. Mario already had two newcomers in Ultimate, I doubt it's getting a 3rd. Plus if Waluigi comes.... there are no Spirits that make sense to come with him. The only reason he has a SLIGHT Chance, like the smallest of threads keeping him alive is that fuss that happened when he was revealed as an Assist Trophy and Nintendo acknowledged the fan outcry. That is the only theory I have for how he could make it in.

Want: 5% I like Waluigi, but the joke of him being an Assist Trophy while everyone else comes in is too perfect to break right now.

Isaac:
Chances: .01%
As close to a zero as I'm willing to give anyone, but Isaac has all of the issues Waluigi has and then some. Dormant Game Series, not as noticeable of an outcry when his AT was revealed.

Want: 0% I honestly don't really care about Isaac. When I saw the Grinch Leak, he was the only one I was like "Aw man, really?" about getting him. I know he has his fans, but I'm not one of them.
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,088
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
The cheap tennis guy with a sticker on his hat

Chance: 0% Yeah nah, I don't care if he's easily the biggest Nintendo character not in, I don't care if he's gotten opinion pieces on the New York Times website, I don't believe in special excpetions and as far as I'm concerned, being an AT means you're out of the running, especially as Waluigi has the honour of being the poster boy for ATs, I feel like that if Sakurai would ever make Waluigi playable, it'd have already happened, funny enough this also applies to Toad, though Waluigi's demand at least doesn't feel like a meme to me I guess.

Want: Abtain, I have literally no opinion on Waluigi. If he's in, my biggest reaction would be raising my eyebrow. Absolutely nothing else in terms of opinions as while there's other Mario characters I'd prefer, you could go so much worse with them.

For such a popular request you'd think people would spell his name right

Chance: 0% See above, Isaac's already an AT and I don't believe in special exceptions at all, "But he's super popular!" Yeah, which is why they put his AT back in the game. "There's a trademark and it isn't a renewal!" While I can't speak on if it's indeed different from a renewal, I do know that F Zero and others have gone through similar 'new but not renewal' trademarks which ended up meaning **** all, especially as F Zero's a tech demo meaning Nintendo no longer cares about it as they don't focus on system power anymore. We have to assume Golden Sun's already getting a revival done, and though some people insist it's absolutely happening, I genuinely don't see it, Camelot's had gaps between titles for a while which people argue adds up with the idea that they're working on Golden Sun despite the claim not being strong evidence, but I also don't see Nintendo reviving this dead IP in particular, this company's infamously fickle in letting franchises die after a single flop, which surprise surprise, fits Golden Sun as Dark Dawn didn't do too well.

Want: 20% sounds fair, it's been over 5 years since I've played the first 2 games and I dropped Dark Dawn and sold it, but honestly, I barely remember anything. In terms of characters, the cast is incredibly basic, I expect a silent protagonist to be basic but people argue this helps build up the supporting cast and letting them shine, but all I remember for the other party members are 'dumb', 'nerd' and 'girl' while sometimes throwing multiple of those. In terms of story, the second game has a big twist involving the villains of the first game which feels really forced and the game literally has God pop up and go "nuh uh" against the main villlain. In terms of combat, all I did was mash attack unless it was a big fight, which the game rewarded me with the whole roar system. To be fair, this isn't really an issue with the game but moreso my inexperience with JRPGs at the time, though there's a few things I particularly remember. MP regenerates when walking which was likely done to prevent players needing to heal up when doing puzzles, that's smart, but because that's always on, it means the player subconsciously gets told not to use inns or anything as you're spending money when walking around for a bit will fully restore all the MP you used to heal up the party. The other being the summon system. While the summons are very badass, they're broken. After all, to use them, you need to use Djinn, using Djinn will give you strong attacks at the cost of temporarily lowering your stats, but the summons are so strong that in big fights, I just endlessly spammed Djinn and summons and hey, that got me through most of the game. The Djinn also effect your class, but your class only seemed to determine what magic that character would do and of course, the stats. I kind of expect more from a class system, albeit more traditional ones which typically also enhance the roleplaying experience, but because every character needs to look the same, classes didn't even offer me visual variety. I remember being really impressed then but the only other RPGs I played were Pokemon back then. Now? I've played Trails, SMT, FF, DQ, Tales, Outer Worlds, tabletop RPGs and more. My standards for this genre have changed drastically and I don't think I'd enjoy the games if I tried revisiting them. At least the music slaps hella hard and hey, while Isaac's normals would likely be as generic as he is, his specials could be really interesting.

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10
 

NintenRob

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trpdm.wilton
Abstain on chance, but I'll throw a score out for Want

I've never played a Golden Sun game one but I'd like to one day. I've had good experience with the Isaac fanbase so no ill will there.
Want 40%

Waluigi is not my first choice for a new Mario character, or second, or Third. That said Waluigi wouldn't offend me like a certain puppet would, King Boo, Captain Toad and Pauline outrank him in desire but Waluigi could be kinda cool.
Want 20%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
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ah the guy whose popularity is never enough and the guy a whole lot of pretty self entitled fans

chances for both: 0% i dont see it, there may have a point where I could believe ATs would be upgraded but not anymore. its got nothing to do with min min as im willing to believe sakurai never even considered spring man for the character. anyway at this point it almost feels like hes avoiding these two on purpose, like toad. isaac had popularity that in my observations seemed to rival that of k.rool and ridley but all that got him was returning as an AT and a costume. waluigi has a lot of very vocal fans although at this point im fifty percent sure theyre just in it for the memes, but again it does not seem to be enough. so these two pretty much prove the idea that popularity isnt everything. and there are other problems as well, GS has been in dormancy for ages possibly due to how the last game was received, possibly due to camelot being trapped in a tennis golf loop. and there are far bigger mario characters than waluigi who are absent, then again that didnnt matter to doc, the koopalings or PP. so yeah just dont see it.

isaac want: 75% i like isaac and i think an earth powered moveset could be really fun. true there are other GS characters i like more but isaac is probably the best bet. and i would love if some of nintendo's less successful franchises got some playable characters in smash.

waluigi want: 0% his fans have completely put me off the idea. i know you shouldnt judge something on its fandom but he was already pretty low down of my likeable mario characters list. weve already got whom i believe to be the worst mario character of all on the roster and i do not want anymore of that.

nominate qbby x10
 

Kalaam

Smash Ace
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Waluigi: I'll abstain

Isaac: 60%
As explained countless time before AT rule is absolute BS.
Trademark, new game incoming, same situation as minmin (lot of base game content, save for new music, stage and fighter).
Long requested and highly request (second behind K.Rool in consolidation polls, from which a lot of character ended up coming).
Would promote Nintendo stuff.
Want 100% duh
 

fogbadge

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Waluigi: I'll abstain

Isaac: 60%
As explained countless time before AT rule is absolute BS.
Trademark, new game incoming, same situation as minmin (lot of base game content, save for new music, stage and fighter).
Long requested and highly request (second behind K.Rool in consolidation polls, from which a lot of character ended up coming).
Would promote Nintendo stuff.
Want 100% duh
what new game?
 

fogbadge

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Once again, new trademark that got approved last year, applied in countries where golden sun was never released before+camelot not having announced a game in almost 3 years now.
that’s not the same as announcing a new game. That could just be a sign of them planning to bring the last 3 onto a new console as Nintendo does with games all the time. Even if camelot hasn’t announced any games in all that time some of it will have been spent on the post launch content for aces
 

Kalaam

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that’s not the same as announcing a new game. That could just be a sign of them planning to bring the last 3 onto a new console as Nintendo does with games all the time. Even if camelot hasn’t announced any games in all that time some of it will have been spent on the post launch content for aces
Except doing this does not require filing a new trademark. They didn't do it to bring the first 2 games on the WiiU Eshop.
They don't need the full studio for dlc characters for Aces either.
 

fogbadge

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Except doing this does not require filing a new trademark. They didn't do it to bring the first 2 games on the WiiU Eshop.
They don't need the full studio for dlc characters for Aces either.
You said they filed the trademarks I countries where they hadn’t before. They would need to file them for new places if it was an old game or a new one
 

DanganZilla5

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Waahhh!!

Chance: 35%

I will be talking about Waluigi first. But before I discuss him, I want to remind people on my stance on assist trophy upgrades because apparently I'm going to be an outlier again.

To me, I think assist trophies have a good chance of happening this pass. Mostly because this pass was decided way after the content of the base game and we've already seen a spirit get upgraded so why not assist trophies? As for Min Min being chosen over Spring Man, that was Yabuki's idea. Sakurai didn't even bring up Spring Man's assist trophy so I don't see that as much of a factor as to why Min Min was chosen. I just don't see any solid evidence for why assist trophies deconfirm characters for this pass. If anything, it would actually help as the developers already have a model and a few animations to work with. Not only that, but we know for a fact that certain assist trophies cannot spawn on certain stages. I'm no game designer but i imagine it's likely just a flip of a switch. Plus this is a fan rule and we've had so many fan rules be broken for this game to the point where I do think this is the next fan rule on the chopping block.

Anyway, onto Waluigi. He needs no introduction. With Paper Mario and Geno deconfirmed, Waluigi is now the most likely Mario character. We all know the immense fan demand this guy has, to the point where Nintendo of America had to respond to it. So it's likely that Nintendo of Japan is aware of the demand. When it comes to first party characters, Waluigi is certainly one of the last remaining notable choices. He is recognizable despite not being in any mainline game and would be a big crowd pleaser. While my confidence in first parties in general has fallen, Waluigi is an exception because what other character caused so much commotion that Nintendo had to respond? I do think he is one of the most likely first party characters but I wouldn't go any higher than this score because it really does feel like Sakurai is hesitant on including him for some reason. Now, would Nintendo choose Waluigi? Well i am leaning on any future first parties being promotional picks and admittedly Waluigi falls short of this as again he doesn't appear in mainline games But it's not like that disqualifies him or anything, plus his demand is such a big plus that the promotional aspect might not matter too much. Overall, I do think he is the likeliest assist trophy.

Want: 75%

I like the purple funny man. I'm not a huge supporter of him, but he is funny and the reactions toward him would be so hype and hilarious. But I mostly give him this score because both of my closest friends are big Waluigi fans. That, and he deserves to be in the game god dammit. People have been waiting for so long.

__________________________

Isaac from Binding of Isaac.....oh wait wrong Isaac

Chance: 25%

Admittedly this score is mostly depending on whether or not that new game comes to fruition within this year. I've been seeing a growing amount of doubt about it but I will remind people that there is still a good amount of evidence for the new game. Here is a good video around it:


As for the fan demand, while Isaac's deconfirmation did not cause an uproar like with Waluigi, it's important to keep in mind that Isaac is one of the longest lasting requested characters. He has been requested for a couple decades at this point. And of course it also helps that I don't think assist trophies deconfirm and I stand by that. I will say though that if we get close to the end of the year without the new game being announced, then yeah this score would drop immensely as it would solidify the fact that Nintendo doesn't really care about this franchise. But for now I'm going to bet a lot on this happening. If it doesn't happen, I will gladly take the L. But for now I have a lot of confidence in our golden boi.

Want: 95%

The Isaac fanbase is probably the most passionate fanbase I have seen in this community. They have shown me why Isaac would be a great choice. He would have an insanely cool moveset based around magic and elemental attacks and the music is phenomenal. Isaac is just one of those characters that would make the roster feel more rounded and he definitely feels missing. He is my most wanted first party character, plus I can relate to the fanbase who is supporting a series that has been dormant for a long time. I feel for all of you.

The only reason this ain't a full 100 is because I honestly have not gotten far into Golden Sun at all so I can't call myself a fan of the game itself. But that doesn't mean that I can't pour a lot of support into Isaac's inclusion. He deserves it.

Predictions:
Master Chief - 2%
Kratos - 0.90%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x10
 

Kalaam

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You said they filed the trademarks I countries where they hadn’t before. They would need to file them for new places if it was an old game or a new one
Would only need to update the old trademark, not to make a new one that fit switch cartridges.
And it wouldn't take 3+ years to do, come on. They aren't spending all that time on a Golf, at most it takes them a year to make one, it would have released late 2019, early 2020 at the LATEST.
 

fogbadge

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Would only need to update the old trademark, not to make a new one that fit switch cartridges.
And it wouldn't take 3+ years to do, come on. They aren't spending all that time on a Golf, at most it takes them a year to make one, it would have released late 2019, early 2020 at the LATEST.
no you need separate trademarks for separate regions you can’t use old ones in places that never had them. Also how do you know it would take only a tear to make a new golf game? Do you work for camelot and have a deep understanding of how they do things
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
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Feb 16, 2019
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winnipeg
Waluigi

Chance: 10%. His chance is quite low, due to being an assist trophy. But of all the assists, his chance is one of the highest, due to his popularity. With that said, I don’t think he will appear in the second fighter’s pass.

Want: 55%. While he is not my most wanted Mario characters (Fawful and Dark Bowser are much preferred), but I think Waluigi would be fun to play as, but the question is, what should be his moveset? His moveset could reference Mario Kart and Mario sports. But overall, while he would make a decent decent Smash Bros rep, but I just prefer other Mario characters.

Issac

Chance: 10%. Just like Waluigi, Issac is one of the most likely assists to be promoted to playable. But due to him being an assist, his chance is quite low, and it’s possible that he won’t be playable. Issac is also a Mii Costume, so this hurts his chance as well

Want: 95%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him team up with Cloud, Link and Shulk against their opponents. Issac has quite a bit of moveset potential in this game as well. Overall, he would be a choice for Smash Bros that is long overdue.

Prediction: Master Chief (5%) and Kratos (10%)

Nom: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle, 5 for Echo: Bowser and 5 for Echo: Olimar
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Drenthe, NL
Reflection of a Reflection
Chance: 15%
NIntendo must certainly be aware of his demand. Waluigi would garner a lot of attention despite being pretty easy to develop. Easy money right there I'd say. Assist Trophy or not, Paper Mario and the simillar demanded Geno having met their ends also leaves little competition left for the lanky cheater. The question here is not can they do it but do they want to? There's a debate on wether Waluigi would fit in a Fighter's pass with a stage and music and all the likes. Walugi's pinball as a stage would be a obvious pick but stuff like music and the spirit board might be a bit more tricky. You'd have to add a lot of stuff that doesn't really relate to Waluigi which may clash with Nintendo's/ Sakurai's vision on the DLC packs. Adding Waluigi as a extra standalone character might sound more likelier then but we won't know if that will even be a thing untill the pass ends. Although if there was one character they'd do that for, it would be him. Still, I have heard rumours about an official Super Mario Brand recognision team preventing Waluigi from getting on the rosters. While that's easy to imagine after the latest Paper Mario release, I doubt they would be allowed to intenvere with Sakurai's game.

Want: 25%
I gave him a much higher score last time. Simply put, we're two characters past that last rating and have just three left from all we know, making me a lot harder on almost any character not in my top 3. I have nothing against Wah but I'll take those characters over him in a heartbeat. In case extra DLC still is happening after this pass I'd be more open to him. Personally, I think that fits him more than a spot in the pass, but for now we don't know if that's happening.

Isaac from Golden wind
Chance: 1%
Guys, unpopular opinion but I really don't think the trademark renewal is going to amount to much. Enough time has passed to make me question if it will even happen at all anymore. I've heard the same thing also happened for Mario Sports recently and take a guess which is likelier to be Camelot's next project out of those two IPs. I don't want to say Golden Sun has no future but I'm really not seeing Isaac as DLC right now. That AT and Mii costume is likely what his demand amounted to, not a future fighter. Even if another GS game is being planned right now (guessing a remaster over a 4th game) it would make Isaac more likely for the next Smash game instead of the current DLC, which this hypothetical new GS game would probably miss the mark on. And if Nintendo specifically wanted a first-party JRPG character to star in this pass, they'd still have Rex to fall back on.

Want: Abstaining

Master Chief: 6.57%
Kratos: 3.81%
Henry Stickmin x20
 
Last edited:

Lyncario

Smash Ace
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Hell
My view on both of them did not change since last time I rated them and I don't have the will to search the rating I did for them so I'll just abstain.

Predictions

Master Chief: 7.6%

Kratos: 0.9%
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
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Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,013
Abstain. I lost will to write for these two.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
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Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Isaac
Chance 45 - Like I said above, I can see this happening. Isaac is one of the big 2 requests left in an uncertain spot with Waluigi so it feels like he'd at least be on Nintendo's radar for a spot in DLC. Isaac can also get past the hurdle of not having enough content in the game with there being 2 songs and no stages in the game. Spirits might be a bit of an issue but as we've seen with Min Mins board it doesn't have to entirely be new spirits coming in. Overall he avoids most if not all of the issues I see other first parties run into and it just comes down to if Nintendo wants to promote him or not. I'm leaning towards not but hey, there could also be stuff in the works we dont know about yet. Also, Isaac would be able to bring a new mechanic into the game with growth synergy among other things so I could see them opting for him because of that too.

Want 60 - I'd like this. Isaac would be a unique fighter who would satisfy a fanbase who has been asking for him for a long time. Props to them for not getting annoying like the Geno one can too. I don't have experience with the games or character but I'd still like to see him get in. I remember making a bit of a tier list for 1st party series who should get more character and I had Golden Sun right behind Astral Chain and Xenoblade, so yeah, I think the series is deserving for sure. It's one I've considering playing and if there ever was anything released on the switch for it I'd likely pick it up.



Waluigi
Chance 30 - Last time I rated him nearly a year ago I gave him a 10. One big reason I'm moving his rating up a lot is because I think there's likely going to be something after pass 2 and he's for sure got a shot at that. Also no longer ruling out ATs anymore helps him a little. A few of the same issues still exist though, one of which being his extra content. Stage is simple enough, that's probably Waluigi Pinball. Spirits may or may not be an issue. He'll have a ton of Mario spirits but I'm not sure how many new ones will come with him. As we saw with Min Min, the board doesn't have to be completely original but I'm not sure they'll add one in that is full of spirits already in the game either. And then for music who knows. It feels like we have plenty of the Mario music repped but I'm sure something slipped through the cracks somewhere. If it fits Waluigi then awesome, if not then it's an issue.

Want 80 - The more I think about it the more I want him. He really kinda just does feel missing right now. There aren't many 1st party characters I feel like really should undoubtedly be in right now but he's at the top of the list. Waluigi feels like he's big enough and requested enough that he should get a spot in the game.


Predictions:
Kratos 2.42%
Master Chief 8.54%

Noms:
John Marston x10
Riptor x10
 

Kalaam

Smash Ace
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Messages
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no you need separate trademarks for separate regions you can’t use old ones in places that never had them. Also how do you know it would take only a tear to make a new golf game? Do you work for camelot and have a deep understanding of how they do things
You just have to look at their past releases to see that they never took more than a year to release a Golf game.
And yeah, I did research how all of that stuff worked, did you ? No need to update the trademark to fit cartridges it isn't supposed to be in. They don't retrademark NES games added to the Switch Online service either.
Just admit that you're wrong or that you're just here to deny others having fun, it'll be quicker.
 

Cutie Gwen

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You just have to look at their past releases to see that they never took more than a year to release a Golf game.
And yeah, I did research how all of that stuff worked, did you ? No need to update the trademark to fit cartridges it isn't supposed to be in. They don't retrademark NES games added to the Switch Online service either.
Just admit that you're wrong or that you're just here to deny others having fun, it'll be quicker.
He's right about needing copyright in specific regions that haven't been filed before, Tsuburaya Productions, owner of Ultraman, wasn't able to properly localize the franchise until very recently due to copyright screwery from a Chinese company called Chaiyo. I get that you really want these rumours to be true but calm down
 

Kalaam

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He's right about needing copyright in specific regions that haven't been filed before, Tsuburaya Productions, owner of Ultraman, wasn't able to properly localize the franchise until very recently due to copyright screwery from a Chinese company called Chaiyo. I get that you really want these rumours to be true but calm down
You do need them, but you just have to update the existing ones. No need to remake one for japan, usa etc that is made for switch cartridges.
And even so, with what's around it (camelot delay since their last game etc), it's unlikely to be just an Eshop version of the gba games. I mean come on, stop being so obtuse guys.
 

tbuster766

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
302
He's right about needing copyright in specific regions that haven't been filed before, Tsuburaya Productions, owner of Ultraman, wasn't able to properly localize the franchise until very recently due to copyright screwery from a Chinese company called Chaiyo. I get that you really want these rumours to be true but calm down
Key word being "trademark" and not "copyright" like you just stated. New trademarks include all the regions of interest, and it's up to said regions to accept or reject.
 

Kalaam

Smash Ace
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808
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France
If you guys don't want to acknowledge new information that has been researched thoroughly, it's ok. But just admit that you just don't want the character in and rate their chances with your want score.
 
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