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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Day 565: Sora (Kingdom Hearts) and Professor Layton

Autumn Breeze

Cats > Dogs
Joined
Aug 12, 2014
Messages
1,477
Location
Alrest
Switch FC
SW-3211-2013-3654
Rex
Chance- 20%
It could happen if we end with another Nintendo character. He’s pretty popular and got a shoutout from Sakurai, so if they revisit XC2 like ARMS he has a shot. His costume could be seen as enough though and other characters might be higher priority.

Want- 100%
Most wanted.

Gen 8
Chance- 15%
Lower than Rex because it got a post-launch Spirit event, but otherwise they’re in the same boat.

Want- 30%
I’d like Thwackey, Rillaboom, or Dragapult, but we all know it’d be Cinderace and I don’t like that one.

Wooper
Chance/Want- 0%
Funny meme but not in the context of Smash.

Nominating Infernape x5
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Master
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
4,050
Rex

Chance: 50%

Xenoblade 2 was mentioned alongside ARMS as one of the games Sakurai wanted to include but couldn't due to time constraints. Now that ARMS is in the game, he's a very real possibility. No character is guaranteed of course but I would not be surprised to see him.

Want: 100%

I think Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was a fun game and that Rex is a fun character. I wouldn't mind seeing him join the battle in the slightest.

Gen 8

Chance: 1%


Even this is generous in my opinion, when Resident Evil, Ring Fit, or Astral Chain are all universally treated as impossible. Pokemon got a spirit event just like all the rest and yet everyone gives it this special exception. We just deconfirmed Impa for her spirit event, we did the same to Paper Mario and Tom Nook several months back, and yet Pokemon always gets a pass. I don't think it's happening.

Want: 0%

Possibly one of my least wanteds ever. Pokemon Sword and Shield is hugely controversial unlike Three Houses. The series already got 3 veterans and a newcomer in the base game, and now has more characters than any other series has had in Smash history in a single game. There are so many other unrepresented series that could use a character more, there are underrepresented series that could use a character more, that having an 11th character to this series seems like the Ultimate waste. It's guaranteed to get a new character in every game anyway, which no other series gets to have this privilege, so it can more than wait.

Wooper

Chance and Want: Beta Infinity (in all seriousness abstain)


This magnificent creature ascends beyond his series, he is a living deity of perfection. Truly blessed are we to bask in his presence, I am not worthy of giving a rating for fear he might smite me.
 
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DaUsername

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
609
Location
In that corner over there
NNID
DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
Banana Waffle Deluxe
Chance: 20%
Really, he should have nothing going against him. He's popular, has been a highly requested Smash character for years, and he's been in nearly every Kirby game released in the last decade. He has one major flaw, though, he's a Nintendo character. That sounds like it would be a good thing, but Smash DLC has been very third party focused, and the only Nintendo newcomers that have been DLC are a walking ad, a joke character, another walking ad, and Min Min, who didn't even exist until 3 years ago. Basically what I'm trying to say here is that they won't add Dee because he isn't new enough and he doesn't have anything to advertise. I know there's rumors of a new Kirby game releasing this year, but even if that does happen, I doubt we'll get anything more than a few .PNGs.
Want: 100%
He's my most wanted first party character. I think he would be fun to play as and would bring some much needed modern Kirby content to Smash. Seriously, why isn't he in already?

The last Nintendo All-Star (that doesn't have "Toad" in their name)
Chance: 20%
A lot of what I said about Dee in regards to chance applies to Dixie as well. If Smash DLC wasn't "Oops! All third parties", she'd be in already.
Want: 65%
While I'm not actively demanding her inclusion, I don't have anything against it either. She's a well known character from a big franchise and she was even planned to be in Brawl. She definitely deserves to be included, I'm surprised it's taken so long.

Rex prediction: 40%
Pokemon prediction: 60%
Wooper prediction: 0%
Noms: Senator Armstrong however many I earned today.
 
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Brodemmars

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 1, 2020
Messages
144
Rex (& Pyra)

Chance 10% for FP2 (95% for FP3 if we get one)

Yes I know that Sakurai said he that was willing to add Rex and like ARMS Rex wasn't able to make the roster due to timing. However Sakurai's word doesn't mean much if they are not planning to add him in FP2 (IMO).

The following are links to Nintendo's Brazilian store (I know that the link to the first fighter's pass is broken just wait for it to be fixed later)
https://store.nintendo.com.br/super-smash-bros-ultimate-fighters-pass
https://store.nintendo.com.br/super-smash-bros-tm-ultimate-fighters-pass-vol-2
https://store.nintendo.com.br/xenoblade-chronicles-2
FP1 was given a higher age rating than FP2 due to sexual content that was barely present (likely because of background characters like Blue Mary on Terry's stage). I’d argue that Rex’s partner Pyra would easily bump up the age rating for FP2 in Brazil. So it’s possible that Nintendo / Sakurai decided to exclude them this time around to maintain a low age rating for FP2 (I assume they wouldn’t want people to complain or avoid buying FP2 if they think that their kids would be too young for it). Sakurai might have anticipated this and gave Rex a Mii costume if it turns out we won't get a FP3. (I know that Sakurai could easily tone down the characters like he did with ZSS, Snake, etc. but I'd argue why bother with that? If FP2 is going to have a higher rating in Brazil like FP1 then so be it.) However if/when they announce that Fighter Pass 3 is coming then there's no doubt in my mind that Rex will be guaranteed a spot.

Want 80%
Rex is cool, I wouldn't mind it if he made into Smash. My only hope is that Sakurai will make him fun to play.


Gen 8 Pokémon

Chance 95%

Some people want to believe that the Gen 8 spirit event is a hard disconfirmation. Personally, I wouldn’t put it past Nintendo to give special treatment to Pokémon and Sakurai to save a spot on the pass given how popular the franchise is. These people are assuming that, like with Byleth, Sakurai would put off adding any spirits until the character is released. However (IMO) the problem with this theory is that people would quickly catch on. If a major franchise like Pokémon didn’t release any spirits then it would be too obvious that a gen 8 Pokémon would be coming to FP2. Beside if Gen 8 was deconfirmed then you’d think they would have at least given out Urshifu and Calyrex spirits to promote the DLC but instead we got nothing.

Out of all of the Gen 8 Pokemon, I'd say that Cinderace has the best shot being a starter.

The Cinderace line has received plenty of special treatment like:

-Getting 2 signature moves and interestingly enough both Greninja and Incineroar also had 2 signature moves when they came out.
-Cinderace's Pyroball having the most amount of effort put into its animation, at least compared to the other 2 starters.
-A Hidden Ability that's functionally the same as Greninja's
-Receiving tons of exposure in the Anime, being paired up with a main character, rivals with Ash's Lucario, etc.
-Be a Soccer/Football mascot IRL
-etc.

Its also the most popular Galar Starter, according to the top 30 results for Galar in the "Pokemon of the Year" poll. It's the 6th most popular Galar pokemon with 26,892 votes (compared to Inteleon's 20,697 votes and Rillaboom's 8,625 votes) and that's just with its base form. At the time they had yet to release Cinderace's Hidden Ability and Gigantamax form.

Based on this, if the Pokemon Company, Gamefreak, and Nintendo were to pick a Gen 8 mon that they would want to add to Smash it is very likely that they would pick Cinderace to be the playable Gen 8 Pokemon. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they expected it to be the most popular of the 3 Galar starters and already have major plans for it for the future.

(Also Scorbunny is Junichi Masuda's favorite Galar starter, so like how we got Min Min after Sakurai talked to the producer of ARMS, maybe talking to the producer of Pokémon will convince Sakurai to add Cinderace.)

However if we don't get a Gen 8 mon in FP2 but they announce Fighter Pass 3 then there's no doubt in my mind that Gen 8 will be guaranteed a spot there.

Want (Cinderace) 100% / (other Gen 8 mons) 80%

Cinderace is my most wanted. However if we get some other Gen 8 mon I won't be too upset, at the very least it would hinder/end the "Spirit Events deconfirm" argument.


Wooper

Chance 1%
I'll humor the possibility. Wooper has a small chance if Gamefreak decided to make Wooper one of the faces of the Let's Go Johto games (if they come out anytime soon) then convince Nintendo and Sakurai to make it a playable character over a Gen 8 Pokémon.

Want 94%
Seeing how people react to Wooper showing up as a playable character would make my day. Plus I would be interested in how Sakurai would implement the character since it has no arms.
 
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LukeRNG

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 17, 2018
Messages
714
Location
Mexico
NNID
LukeBraginsky
Rex
Chance - 50%

Even with the many flaws Xenoblade 2 has (like the mediocre voice acting, terrible tutorials & samey blade designs for the females), it was a success. Xenoblade feels like it's well overdue for another rep, and could very well get it due to how Xenoblade has grown in recent years. Of course any 1st party could be it, but this feels like one of those possibilities.

Want - 70 %
I have a soft spot for the game as a whole, even if I had a rough start with it. The idea of blade switching alone sells me on this character.

Alright, here come's a hot take of mine (and a general gripe in general)

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance - 75%

Pokemon is massive, of course it's very likely we get another character. Even with the controversy Sword & Shield had it became a massive success. And let's be honest, Sakurai doesn't even bat an eye at stuff like this to judge whether a character should get in or not. Pokemon will sell no matter what many say and a controversy isn't a good enough reason to deny a character. Though I won't deny the possibility of not having a pokemon rep.

Want - 90%
I'll be honest, I never liked the mindset of "this series has too many characters already, give some love to other series instead". What matters is the moveset at the end of the day, and so I never cared if one of the big franchises got another character as long as the character has someting to offer (and many of the gen 8 candidates can be unique). So even if we already have plenty of pokemon in the game, I do want another one (just as long as it's not a starter, we could use some variation on that front). Dragapult, Zacian & Toctricity would be my big hopes from gen 8 (but if it HAS to be a starter, let it be Inteleon).
If only Mystery Dungeon could get some love though.
 
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BowserKing

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
691
Location
winnipeg
Rex

Chance: 20%. While he has a Mii posture that prevented him from getting in the first Fighter’s pass, his chance in the second is still there. I also know that spirits don’t discomfort since Min-Min joined the fight. Also he was planned for Ultimate but was cut for recently issues, but since Hero (11), Byleth and Min-Min can get in, then he could too.

Want: 50%. I think Elma is the better choice for a second Xenoblade Rep, but Rex could be fun to play as. But overall, while he would make a decent Smash Bros rep, I’m on the fence about him, for now.

Gen 8 Pokémon

Chance: 35%. Given that Pokémon is a very popular franchise, it would be inevitable that we get at least one new rep in every new Smash Bros game. As for the Pokémon themselves, half of them have a slim chance. The Starters, Toxtricity, Dragapult and Urshifu are amoung the most likely Pokémon to get in of those, but we could surprised by the Pokémon chosen, or a Pokémon from an earlier generation could show up too. Also only 7 Pokémon from Gen 8 became spirits, so it does not disconfirm all of them, given that the one should not in easily outnumber the ones in.

Want: 95%. While Lugia is my most wanted Pokémon, a Gen 8 Pokémon would totally be fun to play as, but the question is who? My personal favourite is either Yamper or Boltound, and I would love to see them in an alliance with Lucario, Isabelle and Duck Hunt. Cinderace is my starter in Shield and I already made a Classic Mode Route for that Pokémon (involves sports). Frosmoth was my token choice and we do need a Bug and Ice type Pokémon in this game. Dragapult is another personal fav and we need a Dragon and Ghost type Pokémon in this game. While Corviknight has a spirit, I think that Pokémon would be great, plus we can steal type moves. Hattena would be the underdog choice and I can see her team up with Kirby and Jigglypuff against some opponents. Overall, I support Galar Pokémon in this game.

Whooper

Chance: 5%. Whooper would be an underdog choice, but it’s chance is quite low in comparison to most. But it has been used quite a bit in the media, so it would not be completely impossible.

Want: 55%. Whooper would be fun to play as, and I can see it fight Greninja and Squirtle in a free for all. Overall, Whooper would make a decent Smash Bros rep and an underdog pick.

Prediction: Lloyd (15%) and Ray-Man (20%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle
 

Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
1,503
Alright another triple day. Lets do the easy one first

Whooper
Chance 0 - Quite simply, there's no reason to pick Whooper. Up next for the remakes is Gen 4, assuming that's ever happening. Most recent game is gen 8. If we get a pokemon from that gen is still up in the air. Only real shot Whooper might have is if we get a Johto lets go game. And while Whooper would be on the short list of Pokemon from that gen who would make sense for a game cover spot there I feel like it's also on the outside looking in for it as well. So yeah, Without any of that Whooper just has nothing in it's favor.

Want 10 - Only thing keeping this above a 0 at the moment is that I think it could be some wacky fun. Moveset potential isn't going to be an issue either as you can just pull from it's Pokemon moveset pretty easily. This would actually be a Pokemon version of Wii Fit or Plant, which alone at least makes it somewhat interesting. But overall, there's a lot more Pokemon I'm way more interesting in seeing get in the game first and would rather get them


Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance 25% - Feeling less and less confident as we move along. However, due to the nature of Pokemon's representation in Smash I feel like it's foolish to ever really count them out. So, which Pokemon could be real contenders? I'll list them out now:
Cinderace - The most popular starter(seemingly)
Intellion - Is also a starter. Could be fairly unique but seems like the least likely of the trio
Rillaboom - The Grass starter, which has had some fanfare around it now for a few games to complete the type triangle. Also would have a very unique moveset.
Urshifu - The "shill" pick. Also arguably the face of the Pokemon DLC expansion passes.
Toxtricity & Dragapault - Listing these 2 together because of how similar their cases are. Both occupy the top 2 spots for popularity for as far as regular pokemon go(not legendary, mythical, or starter). Both would have fairly unqiue movesets. Lately though they've only been really picking starters so that's a hit against the 2.

Right now I'd say the clubhouse leader would be Cinderace, followed up by Rillaboom, Intelleon, Toxtricity and Dragapault, Urshifu, and then outside shot/honorable mention pokemon.

Gonna give honerable mentions to Obstagoon and Sirfetch'd as well. Both are somewhat popular but don't feel like they're popular enough to get the spot. I'd probably give them close to a 1 percent chance at the moment.

I should probably explain why I don't feel confident in Gen 8 anymore though. It's that we're moving further and further away from it's promotional point. Most pokemon reps are trying to promote something now so that's a bit of an issue with the games being repped. Not impossible but we're slowly getting closer and closer to the next Gamefreak project at the moment and it's more likely they'll want to promote that over Gen 8 as we grow closer to it.

Want 60 - While I'm not in love with the idea of a Gen 8 Pokemon I don't hate the idea either. I'd really like to see the music included at least. My personal most wanteds for the Gen 8 pokemon are some non starter Pokemon though. Someone like Toxtricity, Dragapault, Obstagoon, or another regular Pokemon would be fantastic. If we're going to do the thing a lot of people expect then let's at least be somewhat surprising about it, yeah?


Rex
Chance 40 - I feel like just Sakurai's regret statement at the end of the base roster direct is enough to say he has a case here. On top of that Xenoblade is one of the few if only series that actively feels like it's missing characters right now. And with a lack of competition(sorry Elma, it's probably not happening here though). I can see a few knocks on him though. First is that XB2 does have some content in the game already. I'm not sure how much because just looking it up it's not specifying and I haven't played the game to know for sure. The other issue is that Nintendo may have moved on already from XB2. While you can argue Arms could have been in that same exact spot, Arms is also a brand new series to Smash while XB2 is just a game in an already rep series. I would not be shocked to hear that Min Min was a higher priority due to ARMS having no characters yet and the want to promote it over a series already in the game. That's just speculation for me though. At the bare minimum it feels like Rex has Sakurai's support though so I'll consider him in the running until Ultimate is over with at the bare minimum.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way. Xenoblade should get at least one more character in as playable. I say that however, as someone who has never touched a game in the series. It feels like a big enough deal for Nintendo that it's representation feels questionable though. It's also because I know it would make Warpenguin happy, so I can't hate it too much.


Predictions:
Lloyd - 15.61%
Rayman - 13.45%

Noms:
Far Cry rep x10
Bioshock Protagonist x10
John Marston x10
 

jpeg2k

Smash Rookie
Joined
Dec 20, 2020
Messages
2
Wooper:
Chance- .001%
I mean, it's not gonna happen, but it's still a Pokemon, so I'll give it still a non zero chance.

Want- 70%
Would be a funky lil' dude, probably a fun main.

Rex:
Chance- 10%
I feel like they wouldn't have made the Rex costume the bonus for buying the Fighter's Pass if they were to make them a fighter. As well, the game has sort of died down at this point. If it was pass one and the costume didn't exist, rating would be higher.

Want- 10%
I'm really not a fan of Xenoblade 2, and I'm honestly happy with Shulk being the representative for the series as a whole. If they were the only first-party rep added, I'd be a bit sad that a non-represented Nintendo series wasn't chosen instead. But, they could have a cool moveset, so who knows!

Gen 8 Pokemon:
Chance- 25%
Like Rex, I feel like Gen 8 is going out of the spotlight, and it doesn't feel like they'd add one at this point. There's a lot of great choices, and Nintendo loves to add a new 'mon, but unless we somehow got a sequel to SWSH or more DLC, doesn't feel like the time for it.

Want- 60%
I'd be pretty happy with a rep! Toxtricity or Rillaboom being solid replacement for my wish of a rhythm-based Rhythm Heaven fighter, Urshifu being a stance changer, Intelleon being a slippery zoner, or some Pokemon none of us are expecting! Still, def not what I want from the end of the Fighters Pass.
 

One-Winged Bagel

Suppernova
Premium
Joined
Aug 13, 2001
Messages
31,609
Location
A Cold and Dark Place
NNID
Irene4
3DS FC
1203-9265-8784
Switch FC
SW-7567-8572-3791
Wait what’s this with Wooper is this some kind of joke or something?
Many of these were suggested before much more specific rules to avoid joke-based suggestions. Plus, it does have a legitimate support thread, so obviously somebody is serious about it.

------------------------------

Abstain on Rex and Wooper

Gen 8 Pokemon:

Chance: 40%. I don't think the Spirit Event means all that much. It would if most of the core character options were gotten a Spirit, but there's over 50 different Pokemon in general, and ones like Urshifu who still could work as a unique playable option. It doesn't mean I think it's likely, but it's still a 3rd version for all intents and purposes and I expected an obvious Spirit Event beforehand anyway. It would've gotten one regardless of a character. It may even get a second Spirit Event, honestly, since it's got a ton to represent on its own.

Want: Abstain. I honestly haven't played it yet, but know a decent amount to think it might be neat having a switch-out mechanic with two separate Urshifu. That's like the only one of note to me with my knowledge.

Noms: Fulgore x 5

Predictions:
Lloyd 70%
Rayman 25%
Arle 20%
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,735
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Wait what’s this with Wooper is this some kind of joke or something?
Tdlr it became a joke during the game awards and wooper watch was announced. I told a bunch of the RTC regulars it would be on the fixed schedule if it had a support thread. Besides, joke ratings are fine so long as someone put the effort into a support thread and it’s all in good fun.

tho wooper is 400% in guys
 

NintenZ

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Messages
12,208
Location
The Metaverse
3DS FC
5343-8848-6075
Switch FC
SW-0570-4210-6061
Okay I guess I’ll rate Wooper then?

Wooper

Chance- 0.01%

I mean, it’s a videogame character I guess, and a Pokémon, but I could only really see it as a joke character and it’s not a super recognizable Pokémon compared to the ones they have in Smash and hell even some ones who are Pokeballs, they’d probably go with someone from the most recent generation I guess.

Want- 1%

Look, if we get someone from a previous gen it should be one of the ones I mentioned previously (Eevee, Meowth, Zoroark), like those three deserve so much better and I don’t want them to be passed over because of a joke character. I would be sad. :(

By the way since I missed their day could I do a write-up for Hayabusa and Adol real quickly? Just wanna get that out of the way.
 

PLANTMAN

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 6, 2020
Messages
291
Switch FC
3314-3608-8898
Wow people rating gen 8 so high as if it’s their special exception inevitability or somthing after impa and few possible choices just got spirited

Not surprising

Oh well, it won’t be that long once the pass ends and there’s no signs of a gen 8 Pokémon in the final 3 and it will finally come to mind that the spirit event did destroy its chances
 

Lionfranky

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
520
Abstaining on all three. I don't have will or stamina to write a single paragraph.

Nom: Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 5
 
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Bobthealligator

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
342
Rex:
Pros:
Similarly to Min Min, represents a key game in the Switch's library
Has a lot of interesting moveset potential
Is actually quite a popular request from what I've seen
Cons:
XCDE was released since, so technically Xenoblade 2 is no longer the most recent entry in the series.
There aren't a ton of options for a Spirit Board as the base game representation was pretty thorough. A Xenoblade 2 pack may not be deemed neccesary.
Xenoblade is not Fire Emblem, both in the size of the franchise and how Nintendo treats it in regard to Smash. A new Xenoblade character has been passed up 3 times now, and I am somewhat expecting this time to be any different

I'm not considering the Mii Costume because, due to timing, the evidence that it was intended for base game (cough Nia cough), and the nature of how it was sold, I see no reason to believe that it has effected his chances in any way.

Gen 8 Pokemon:
Pros:
It's Pokemon
Cons:
The Spirit Event
There really aren't that many good options. Animation wise Pokemon games are very basic, so Sakurai tends to fill the gaps using the Pokemon's inspirations, like Incineroar and Heel Wrestlers, Lucario and mixed martial artists and Greninja and Naruto. None of the starters will translate well due to their inspirations being almost entirely stationary for two cases and the other being Cinderace, Urshifu and Toxtricity have two forms that complicate matters (Toxtricity less so, in fact one of my friends came up with a cool idea of giving him Rock and Roll dance moves for his normals), Calyrex's fighting style isn't particularly well defined and everyone else is really a tad unimportant.
This is a bit tinfoil hatty but when asked why Pokemon Z never happened Masuda (I think, I forget exactly who said it) said that they wanted to start a new generation fo the 20th anniversary. This, coupled with the fact that the Dynamax Adventure type 'capture all the legendaries' mode is only featured in the last entry of a generation, and the fact that the Anime has now done the Eternatus plotline, makes me think that it is entirely with the realm of possibility that we get Gen 9 this year. In which case, a Gen 8 mon almost certainly won't happen.

Wooper:
Pros:
It's Wooper
Cons:
I can't think of any

So in conclusion, I think Rex, while certainly a frontrunner, probably isn't as likely and most people assume him to be. I don't think a gen 8 pokemon is happening, mainly because I think, if it were, it would have happened already.
Wooper however is a lock, 100% chance.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,286
Location
Duwang
Rexit
Chance: 20%
Min Min getting added theoretically removed most of the hurdles Rex had with how Arms and Xenoblade 2 pretty much used to be in the same boat during the base game. Both were considered but timing just didn't work out. The idea for an Arms character was eventually revisited so will the same happen for Rex? Well it certainly isn't a guarantee since you could argue Arms is a new IP Nintendo wasn't happy abandoning so soon whereas Xenoblade does pretty well for itself currently and might not need further promotion. The Rex costume is a unique situation too. I personally feel that if Nintendo had any desires regarding adding Rex before aditional DLC was on the table, they'd probably object to a costume of him being made, especially one people would have to pay for. The fact they allowed it and considering the rotating cast of XB games leads me to believe Rex might not have a huge future ahead of him. That is just what I feel tho, he could very much still happen.

Want: 0%
Rex and XB2 just don't look that appealing to me, even if I want to get more into JRPGs. Also spots are getting tight, especially for first-parties and at this point there are no characters I'd take over Dee.


Pokemon! Gotta not even try
Chance: 10%
I really advocated against this during previous days so what changed? Well I expected that since Sword and Shield got a Spirit event around when it launched that more Spirit events for the game would happen for both the Isle of Armour and Crowned tundra DLC. It's been months now and there's still no sign of them coming and that concerns me. I know those events don't always line up with a game release, see Astral Chain, but with the first Gen 8 Spirit event it did. Does the pandemic have something to do with it? Perhaps they aren't that interested this time? I don't know but I have trouble imagining TPC not trying to shove their shillbunny in the crossover somewhere. If there's any franchise that can bend the rules here, it's Pokemon. This all relies on unpredictable behind the scenes stuff that I can't predict. For now tho, I'm still not confident in it happening but the longer we go by with no new Spirits the more I'll be sweating.


Want: 0%
It doesn't matter which one it is. Having one of the final characters be yet another Pokemon, one from the games so lazy I couldn't support them, over almost any other character would be such an anti-hype moment for me and a ton of other people. A Gen 8 Pokemon simply wouldn't come of to me as a inclusion that felt earned or honest. It's a 100% corporate pick. If it happened it wouldn't be because they saw a Sword&Shield Pokemon as a crowdpleaser or something that expands the Smash crossover in a meaningfull way. It would be because TPC lobbyist walked into the board meeting and threw some bills over the place. It very likely wouldn't go like that but it's how I feel it would, dammit. No way I'd settle for this over BWD. I wouldn't settle for this over most characters, including Rex, Reimu, even Freddy Fazbear.

Also I'm not rating Wooper guys, we all know Furret is the superior choice anyway. :162:

Lloyd: 21.32%
Rayman: 13.88%
Edit: Arle: 23.65%
Henry Stickmin x15
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
6,110
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Riggedy Riggedy Rex'd
Chance: 33%

If there's a first party I feel it's Rex...or the 8th Gen Pokemon. With both Byleth and ARMS arriving, Rex seems like he'd just be a quite obvious fit having existed in the same sort of time frame.

The only thing against him is his Mii outfit being released alongside Fighter Pass 1, and tbh, that was supposedly before Fighters Pass 2 was agreed upon. However I don't think it's a death sentence for Fighters Pass 2.

Want: 60%
I recently watched Xenoblade 2's cutscenes like a movie on Youtube. I'd have played the game but frankly after playing X for four hours I realised I didn't like the gameplay despite liking everything else.
From that experience I have to conclude that Rex is...okay.

That's it. He's alright.

I didn't find him particularly awful like many claimed he was, but he didn't really grab me as a particularly interesting individual either. I liked his hardworking nature and despite people claiming he's a hot blooded shonen archetype I didn't see it. Rex is usually calm, with only a few extreme stress moments pushing him to anger, and for the most part he's level headed and caring.
I'm not sure why so many decided to make **** up about Rex when it's clear he's not that at all.

Obviously having only watched cutscenes I'm not too familiar with Rex's moveset, but from what little the cutscenes did showcase, Rex has a few neat abilities that could make him different from Shulk and the other sword boys and girls.

Pokemon 8 Deluxe
Chance: 15%

Less confident than I was, but a Gen 8 Pokemon isn't an impossibility still.

We've had a spirit event, but that only covered like...Zacian, Zamazenta, Scorbunny, Grookey, Sobble, Corviknight and Morpeko which...is barely anything. I doubt it even wipes out Grookey, Scorbunny or Sobble's evolutions chances, and Corviknight, Morpeko and the two legendaries were never going to make it anyway.

Want: 10%
As a brit, it really saddens me that the region based off my country is the one that is viewed as the biggest quality flop of the series, despite it's great sales.

Having played Sword I have to admit it's very underwhelming and unengaging and the disasterous option to not bring back all the Pokemon even WITH DLC is frankly missing the original point of Pokemon.

The gameplay seems slower and whilst it's graphically the best Pokemon's ever looked it still looks pretty pathetic compared to other Nintendo IPs.

That said I'd be lying if I said I didn't like some of the Gen 8 mons; Obstagoon for example is a very appropriate Pokemon for Britain as badgers are one of our most beloved wildlife species and I've wanted one since Gen 1 as it's also my favourite animal. I didn't realise Linoone was meant to be one though, since Zigzagoon is a raccoon dog. Still if by some miracle we got Obstagoon, that'd be a 100% want for me.

The starters I'm less keen on. Whilst they do celebrate certain 'british' elements like our love of Football(or Soccer), rock music and James Bond, Rillaboom and Intelleon are far from my favourites. I don't hate Cinderace, probably being my favourite Pokemon of the starters but it's ANOTHER fire starter which makes it less appealing by default. Cinderace probably sits at about 60% want.

Sir Fetch'd is the only other who would even vaguely excite me. I've wanted a Farfetch'd evolution since Gen 1 and we finally got one. If Sakurai HAS to put in a Pokemon and/or another sword user, this is the only one I'd be 100% on board with.

So that's it. Aside from Obstagoon, Sirfetch'd and Cinderace I have no interest in a Gen 8 Pokemon, hence a dramatically lower score of 10%. Of the trio I listed, Cinderace seems like the only one with any chance. And he's my least favourite of the three. Boo.

WOOP-de-doo
Chance: 0.0%

Absolutely not. The Pokemon company sadly only use Smash for shilling.

Want: 10%
The shilling has been defeated! This would be exciting for that reason at least.

Wooper's one of my favourite Gen 2 Pokemon, only behind Totodile's line, Cyndaquil's line, Wobbuffet and Espeon and Umbreon funnily enough.

Sadly Gen 2 also has the worst overall selection of new Pokemon of any generation.
I'd even rank Gen 8's new Pokemon as overall better than Gen 2's new beasties outside the ones I mentioned. And I only wanted three of them for Smash. That's three more than Gen 2 I want for Smash though!
 

Dr. Jojo Phantasma

The Chessmaster
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
1,956
Rex

Chance
: 15%

My own gut instinct is that they wouldn't had made Rex a Mii costume if they have him on 'hold' just like Steve and Sephiroth and unlike ARMS, XBC2 also came with music on base so it could be seen as enough representation for XBC2. That said though I believe if we were to get another first party character in the pass, Xenoblade is definitely high on the list and Rex is the latest Xenoblade protagonist so that counts for something, though I believe Melia and Elma shouldn't be underestimated either.

Want: 0%

Rex in my opinion is one of the most generic, lousy JRPG protagonists ever and his move set potential doesn't excite me at all. I rather see the Zekenator, Morag or Lora as the XBC2 rep instead even if they have no chance of making it in over Rex who is the main character.


Gen 8 mon

Chance: 5%
Besides the spirit event which I do believe is a disconfirmation for Sword and Shield as a whole rather than just the characters featured in the event, I agree with Ninten that Pokemon doesn't need the marketing since it is freaking Pokemon! Nintendo's style has been more to advertise series that really do need the marketing aid like Fire Emblem and ARMS, while the latter may not currently be getting a sequel, there is still merit to keeping the ARMS franchise afloat as Nintendo may do something with it in the future. I also feel that if we did have a Gen 8 mon that TPCI would strongarm Sakurai into revealing them before Crown Tundra came out, but who knows we can never be sure of anything in Smash.

Want: 70%

I do like Gen 8 and the mon I want to see the most is Cinderace who I feel would be the Gen 8 rep if we were to have one. Gosh I love that fire bunny so much! Rillaboom, Intelleon and Toxtricity are also cool in my book.

Abstain on Wooper

x5 Velvet Crowe
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,899
C'mon Gwen I know you hate Rex and all but
if Steve took 5 years from starting negotiations to being playable, that suggests that a second pass was always planned
No it doesn't
they blatantly withheld content for a future fighter
And no they didn't

Steve being in negotiations since 2015 doesn't mean they knew they were going to have DLC since 2015. It means they tried to get him for (maybe) Smash 4 DLC, didn't, then tried again for base game Ultimate, didn't, then tried again for Fighter Pass 1, didn't, and finally got him for Pass 2 - and that's assuming that said discussions were continuous, and were even more specific than a vague "Minecraft in Smash maybe?" until recently. As for the other point, I'm assuming you mean Sephiroth, but there's zero ground to sa
For one Sakurai never actually said Rex was the only character from Xenoblade 2 that was considered, even when the Rex Mii was shown off he said “Characters from Xenoblade 2” and not just Rex. What’s to say another character from that game couldn’t get in?
tenor (8).gif
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Jul 1, 2014
Messages
57,025
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
C'mon Gwen I know you hate Rex and all but

No it doesn't

And no they didn't

Steve being in negotiations since 2015 doesn't mean they knew they were going to have DLC since 2015. It means they tried to get him for (maybe) Smash 4 DLC, didn't, then tried again for base game Ultimate, didn't, then tried again for Fighter Pass 1, didn't, and finally got him for Pass 2 - and that's assuming that said discussions were continuous, and were even more specific than a vague "Minecraft in Smash maybe?" until recently. As for the other point, I'm assuming you mean Sephiroth, but there's zero ground to sa

View attachment 298899
If they were still doing negotiations for Steve despite the first pass being finalized then yes it suggests Nintendo still had plans for more DLC as they'd otherwise stop Steve negotiations.

I just have missed when Three Houses got a spirit event before Byleth was confirmed, though tbf I didn't make it clear I referred to Byleth then
 

NintenZ

Smash Legend
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12,208
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The Metaverse
3DS FC
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Switch FC
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Am I honestly wrong about it not having to be Rex though?

Sakurai’s wording implies that multiple characters from Xenoblade 2 were considered, the game has an ensemble cast and Rex isn’t the only character that has focus despite him being the central one.

There’s also examples of them not going with the central character in the past for certain series. Robin for example was picked over Chrom despite him being the more prominent face in both Awakening’s marketing and (arguably) narrative because he brought more interesting gameplay options and more variety, and Min Min was picked as the ARMS rep because Yabuki wanted her. Despite what Sakurai said about “Everyone is the main character”, Springman and Ribbon Girl were more prominent in the game’s marketing and are both literally the faces you see on the box art and game’s icon, and even Max Brass and Dr. Coyle are more important to the world and lore of ARMS. Min-Min is very equivalent to a side-character but she got picked because she was a developer darling.

Basically what I’m saying is it doesn’t HAVE to be Rex if they go from a character from Xenoblade 2, he may be the central character but I think with Sakurai’s wording taken into account other choices from that game may fair well as well. I’m not saying it can’t be him, I’m just saying I don’t think we should limit ourselves to JUST him, that’s all.
 
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SharkLord

Smash Master
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
4,042
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
Eh, I've got time to kill. Might as well.
Rex, also known as Bataar, Gigas, and Lancensis, among others (Free cookie for whoever gets the reference)
Needs no introduction, we know this guy already. Points for him: XC2 did good, popular request, would've been added had his game released sooner. Points against him: Mii Costume.

That last point has me conflicted. My stance on content is "Base game good, post-launch bad" when it comes to deconfirms... So what would we could Rex as? On one hand, it's not part of the base game, it's DLC. On the other hand, it's not necessarily post launch either, seeing as it was available from Day 1. It's a free bonus for FP1, so Nintendo might see him like any other DLC, but they might also seem him as just another base game Mii or Assist Trophy.

While I've joked about Nia being chosen instead based on Sakurai being a cat person, I honestly feel like it's Rex or nothing. It's not like ARMS where it's an ensemble cast; In an RPG, that would be something like Trials of Mana or Octopath Traveler. XC2 isn't that type of game.

Currently, I'm leaning towards the Mii Costume being it, but he could still happen. Overall, 40% chance.

Want is 50%. Not someone I'm actively rooting for, but I'd be cool with him. Plus, we'd get some good bangers out of the OST.

Literally the entirety of the Galar region
Also needs no introduction, even less than Rex (Also because we're going over every possible Gen 8 Pokemon so it's hard to keep track of everyone). I'm just gonna cut to the point: I think they're done. SwSh got a post-launch Spirit Event, and I consider post-launch content to be it for a character. Therefore, SwSh is done.

Yes, I am aware that there are other SwSh Pokemon beyond the ones Spirited, but the ones who did are pretty darn important. We got the starters, the Legendaries, the fast-travel dudes and one of the first Pokemon revealed, and the Pikaclone. And no, the popular ones like Toxicitry and Dragapult don't count; SwSh wasn't even out by the time the pass was finalized, and they wouldn't have known by then. Plus, if they were chosen in advance, Nintendo would want to strike while the iron is hot. Compared to Byleth, SwSh is twice as old as Three Houses was at the time of Byleth's inclusion, and the DLC cycle is done. Never say never, but SwSh ain't in a good spot right now. 10% chance.

Want... Depends. If it's best boi Appletun, 70%. Anyone else, 30-40%. Not much else to say here.

For once I'm gonna do a rating. All my points into nomming Ryza (I think that's around 20 noms?)
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
6,110
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Am I honestly wrong about it not having to be Rex though?

Sakurai’s wording implies that multiple characters from Xenoblade 2 were considered, the game has an ensemble cast and Rex isn’t the only character that has focus despite him being the central one.
I guess so but I'm envisioning a scenario where the character choices are:
  • Rex
  • Rex and Pyra
  • Rex and Mythra
  • Pyra
  • Mythra
  • Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and endgame spoiler, you know the one
I just can't envision a world where Tora, Morag or Zeke were seriously considered as the pick of the bunch, even if the former would give us a playable Nopon, the middle is just extremely cool and the latter is...well Zeke. Nia got Mii costumed, but also would have been weird to prioritise over Rex.

There's Torna I suppose, but since that's a DLC prequel to the main game I'd have to assume the main game would get the priority nod.
 

SharkLord

Smash Master
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
4,042
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
I guess so but I'm envisioning a scenario where the character choices are:
  • Rex
  • Rex and Pyra
  • Rex and Mythra
  • Pyra
  • Mythra
  • Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and endgame spoiler, you know the one
I just can't envision a world where Tora, Morag or Zeke were seriously considered as the pick of the bunch, even if the former would give us a playable Nopon, the middle is just extremely cool and the latter is...well Zeke. Nia got Mii costumed, but also would have been weird to prioritise over Rex.

There's Torna I suppose, but since that's a DLC prequel to the main game I'd have to assume the main game would get the priority nod.
Yeah, Torna directly spirals off of the base game and it'd be weird to have Lora over Rex. At least Tora and Nia have some pretty powerful, unique, and and plot-relevant Blades (Or in Nia's case, is one), but even then the entire story revolves around the Aegis and her Driver going to Elysium. It's not quite an ARMS-level ensemble cast.
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
7,267
Location
Mars
REX

CHANCE - 30%
I think Rex's odds are pretty solid. The big negative I can really stick on him is the fact that... yeah, he has a DLC Mii Costume. Except that Mii Costume is not purchasable individually and was implemented in the very beginning of FP1 / alongside base game. Rex is in a very very weird position and it's particularly difficult to get a read on what this means for him.

If the Mii Costume is the only negative, Rex should be higher right? Well, it's not exactly a small obstacle. For all we know, and as far as some people in this thread seem to be concerned, this could be a death sentence in and of itself.

I think there's substantial evidence to imply that Rex's costume is the best he's going to get. Case in point, this FP1 promo graphic that still prominently displays him as a selling point right alongside the actual characters. Considering I've seen this as recently as Steve's release as part of an in-game announcement, they still seem to prop Rex up as a valuable part of the FP1 package.

1610388042662.png


It's also becoming more and more reasonable to believe that most if not all of our DLC characters have been discussed and planned for several years now, and that FP2 may have always been in the cards (or at least some additional characters). At face value this would hurt Rex, since he was chosen to be part of DLC despite there always having been further plans beyond FP1 (I think Steve outright confirms this). Contrary to this point though, I believe Nintendo can pretty much add their own characters whenever they want. I'm under the impression that Min Min was a later addition than some of the other DLC, founded in Sakurai's own statements about ARMS and the idea that third parties would have to undergo far longer negotiations and paperwork.

To this point, knowing that Sakurai felt bad about not being able to implement ARMS or Xenoblade 2 characters into the base game... AND seeing how Nintendo really seems to see Xenoblade as an important IP now, I wouldn't be shocked to see them fall back on Rex or some additional Xenoblade content. I'd be equally unsurprised if Rex misses the boat, though. The bottom line is they COULD if they want to.

WANT - 20%
I don't really feel anything toward this character, and I believe he would be justified in joining Smash, but I would be VERY underwhelmed to have him appear as one of the final characters. The closer we get to the finish line, my want chances are generally gonna be more strict because they're taking up one of three opportunities for me to get a character that I really really want. I don't particularly want Rex for anything other than Xenoblade 2 music, which we could use more of but is technically already in the game.

GALAR POKEMON

CHANCE - 15%
These characters have a surprising amount in common - recent first-party hits from Nintendo, and people can't figure out whether they're disconfirmed or not. Most of Gen 8's contention lies in the fact that SWSH has already received a spirit event, usually accepted by everyone as an outright disqualification of that game getting content down the line. Why do a SWSH spirit event if there's going to be a SWSH character later? I think this logic is sound, and I mostly agree with it.

That being said, I think those that berate others for seeing Pokemon as the "exception" need to come at this with a little more nuance. Every other spirit event we've gotten that has been seen as a disconfirmation - Resident Evil, Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure, etc - featured the most fitting characters from those series to join the roster. We're not getting a RE character if it's not Jill / Leon / Chris / Wesker, obviously, so why bother speculating about it anymore? Meanwhile, Gen 8's frontrunners are the final starter evolutions, which are absent. Sure, we have the first stage starters, but the fact of the matter is the characters who people would expect to become playable from SWSH are technically not out of the picture. And no doubt there are dozens of other Pokemon who could make up a brand new spirit board.

I do believe the spirit event is a major strike against SWSH's chances of getting a playable character though, especially when you consider Three Houses (I mean, they could have just dropped Edelgard, Dimitri and Claude spirits without Byleth right?). And with both DLC expansions out, I feel that the longer we go without a Pokemon character the less likely they become. I'm absolutely not counting on another Pokemon, but the series is still massive and the most prominent candidates are still missing any representation in the game. So it's hard to count it out entirely, IMO.

WANT - 20%
It all depends on who they are. I think there are good opportunities here for fun Pokemon, and then there are also opportunities that I would find pretty lame. I actually don't mind Cinderace, I think they would make for a distinct moveset even with their derivative typing. Toxtricity would legitimately be badass, but I find their chances to be particularly slim. As for the other viable candidates, I don't really want them at all. There's also just no pressing need for more Pokemon content at all, and I personally don't care very much about the series nowadays.

WOOPER

Not gonna bother. They're in.

PREDICTIONS:
Lloyd - 38.5%
Rayman - 16%

(Wasn't there going to be an Arle re-rate too?)

NOMINATION: BILLY & JIMMY LEE x5
 
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NintenZ

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Messages
12,208
Location
The Metaverse
3DS FC
5343-8848-6075
Switch FC
SW-0570-4210-6061
I guess so but I'm envisioning a scenario where the character choices are:
  • Rex
  • Rex and Pyra
  • Rex and Mythra
  • Pyra
  • Mythra
  • Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and Pyra and Mythra
  • Rex and endgame spoiler, you know the one
I just can't envision a world where Tora, Morag or Zeke were seriously considered as the pick of the bunch, even if the former would give us a playable Nopon, the middle is just extremely cool and the latter is...well Zeke. Nia got Mii costumed, but also would have been weird to prioritise over Rex.

There's Torna I suppose, but since that's a DLC prequel to the main game I'd have to assume the main game would get the priority nod.
I don’t think any of the other party members were considered seriously honestly, Nia however I could see being considered as she has a Mii Costume and is the game’s tritagonist, and a good amount of the story revolves around her trying to accept who she is. As for Lora I could see her as Torna has no content in the game at all and she’s a pretty important character to her game in her own right.

I do want to bring up the matter of KOS-MOS Re however, while not a main character in the game, it is pretty interesting she happened to get a scale model figure of her (the only other ones from the game who’ve gotten one are Pyra and Mythra themselves) and she is a favorite of the Monolith Soft staff and Tetsuya Takahashi, so I wouldn’t rule her out as well.
Yeah, Torna directly spirals off of the base game and it'd be weird to have Lora over Rex. At least Tora and Nia have some pretty powerful, unique, and and plot-relevant Blades (Or in Nia's case, is one), but even then the entire story revolves around the Aegis and her Driver going to Elysium. It's not quite an ARMS-level ensemble cast.
It’s not quite on the level of ARMS no, but it still is a game where a lot of the characters get a good amount of focus outside of the central character, which is why I think it’s important not to rule out some of the other characters.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
8,899
[Rerate] Monokuma x295
Qbby x290
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x285
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x265
[Rerate] Neku x254
Marina Liteyears x245
Worms x235
Concept: Among Us character x235

250 - 201

Crazy Dave x215
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x210
Henry Stickmin x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x200
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x197
Mii Costume: Madeline x190
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x167
John Marston x160
Concept: Far Cry rep
x154

150 - 101

Tetra x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mike Haggar x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Stage: Bowser's Castle x107
Boss: Rayquaza x105
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x105
Zagreus x105

100 - 51

Riptor x100
Excitebiker x100
Giygas x90
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x90
Estelle Bright x90
Fulgore x89
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x86
Agent 47 x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81

Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x75

Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Echo (Bowser) x70
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Kaede Akamatsu x65

Ghirahim x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Senator Armstrong x50
Stage: Tetris x50
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x50
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x45
Billy & Jimmy Lee x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31

Ryza (Atelier) x25
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Agumon x20
Rallen (Spectrobes) x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Trevor Philips x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Infernape x5
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x5
Firebrand x1

Marina Liteyears shakes past Worms and takes sixth place. Among Us character vents into the top seven, tied with Worms for last place.

Henry Stickmin jumps over 200 noms.

Far Cry rep collects over 150 noms.

Boss: Rayquaza, Curly as Quote's alt/Echo, Mike Haggar, Zagreus, and Team Fortress 2 rep all cross 100 noms.

New Zelda character discovers over 50 noms.

Breaking news! A vault filled with nominations has been broken into. 50 nominations are missing. It would appear the culprit is none other than Carmen Sandiego, but where in the world could she have fled to...?

If they were still doing negotiations for Steve despite the first pass being finalized then yes it suggests Nintendo still had plans for more DLC as they'd otherwise stop Steve negotiations.
Again, this assumes that negotiations were continuous and not that they died out and restarted whenever a new plan was decided upon. Generally speaking, there's no evidence to suggest that Pass 2 was in the works anytime before 2019, only conjecture.
 
Last edited:

NintenZ

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
Messages
12,208
Location
The Metaverse
3DS FC
5343-8848-6075
Switch FC
SW-0570-4210-6061
I personally am in the belief that negotiations for Pass 2 were in the works far before it’s announcement in September 2019, but nothing was locked down and finalized till November of that same year as Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth presentation.
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
57,025
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
[Rerate] Monokuma x295
Qbby x290
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x285
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x265
[Rerate] Neku x254
Marina Liteyears x245
Worms x235
Concept: Among Us character x235

250 - 201

Crazy Dave x215
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x210
Henry Stickmin x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x200
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x197
Mii Costume: Madeline x190
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x167
John Marston x160
Concept: Far Cry rep
x154

150 - 101

Tetra x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mike Haggar x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Stage: Bowser's Castle x107
Boss: Rayquaza x105
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x105
Zagreus x105

100 - 51

Riptor x100
Excitebiker x100
Giygas x90
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x90
Estelle Bright x90
Fulgore x89
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x86
Agent 47 x85

Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x75

Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Junpei (Zero Escape) x72

Echo (Bowser) x70
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Kaede Akamatsu x65

Ghirahim x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Senator Armstrong x50
Stage: Tetris x50
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x50
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x45
Billy & Jimmy Lee x40
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Filia (Skullgirls) x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Agumon x20
Rallen (Spectrobes) x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Trevor Philips x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Infernape x5
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x5
Firebrand x1

Marina Liteyears shakes past Worms and takes sixth place. Among Us character vents into the top seven, tied with Worms for last place.

Henry Stickmin jumps over 200 noms.

Far Cry rep collects over 150 noms.

Boss: Rayquaza, Curly as Quote's alt/Echo, Mike Haggar, Zagreus, and Team Fortress 2 rep all cross 100 noms.

New Zelda character discovers over 50 noms.

Breaking news! A vault filled with nominations has been broken into. 50 nominations are missing. It would appear the culprit is none other than Carmen Sandiego, but where in the world could she have fled to...?

ahemtoday ahemtoday You gave 20 noms yesterday (18 to Junpei and 2 to Filia), but your post only netted you 15.


Again, this assumes that negotiations were continuous and not that they died out and restarted whenever a new plan was decided upon. Generally speaking, there's no evidence to suggest that Pass 2 was in the works anytime before 2019, only conjecture.
At the same time, we know Banjo was secured at E3 2018 due to people at Rare confirming that and there's an equal lack of evidence that Steve was outright dropped until Nintendo wanted Steve again later. There's reason to believe they were still actively trying to get Steve too, with a certain Smash leaker who's Smash resume was damn near flawless insisting we were getting something involving Minecraft, this was in late 2018, AKA after they secured Banjo for the pass. It could just be small coincidences that somehow ended up matching up together or Nintendo knew they'd do more DLC pre 2019
 

Louie G.

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I personally am in the belief that negotiations for Pass 2 were in the works far before it’s announcement in September 2019, but nothing was locked down and finalized till November of that same year as Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth presentation.
Yeah, it's hard not to read into it when Steve was confirmed to be discussed for as long as five years and wouldn't appear until FP2 (highly doubt he was planned that long but I digress), on top of Sepiroth being a part of the Square Seven list right alongside Luminary and Erdrick. Even if the characters were locked in late 2019, they're likely characters who have been part of discussions a lot earlier than that.

My personal theory is that additional DLC was always planned but that it would have been standalone if they didn't want to go through with making 4-6 characters for a full pass. I don't think there's a timeline where we wouldn't have gotten Steve in some way shape or form.
 
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