Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Xenigma]

4 - Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project)
This may come from my bias as she is my most wanted, but I feel like Reimu is underratted by most, aminly due to how many people judge her as having no chances. Though I will also admit that some also overate her, but it's an extreme minority that does that. Reimu has good things going for her, between legacy, popularity in Japan and China that is already very high but also rising, with examples including how a artist that does Touhou fanarts was employed by a restaurant in Japan to make Touhou paintings for the restaurant which is just ridiculous, or how Sanrio, the company that owns Hello Kitty, the second hightest grossing media series in the world behind only Pokemon, made a collaboration with Touhou so that they could target the younger audience Touhou reaches. The owners of the second hightest grossing media franchise in the world said that Touhou was reaching the younger audience, their target audience, better than they do, in the country where Hello Kitty is the most popular. Just let that sink in for a moment. Besides that, there was this Chinese convention where the Overwatch stand was very empty while the Touhou stand right next to it was so full they had to make pepole get out of there because it was becoming dangerous. And also, some things that go in Reimu's favor for Smash is how Nintendo showed interest in Touhou multiple times, from distributing remixes at Reitaisai 13 in 2016, Reimu dancing with Kirby in Taiko Drum Drum on the 3DS, or how it was known recently that if ZUN ported one of his game to the Switch then Nintendo would support Touhou in "various ways" some days before it was anounced that AoCF would get ported to the Switch eventualy.

Just want to say thanks for this write-up, as it helps explain more of the cultural significance of Touhou. The skeptical side of me says none of this is hard proof (I've heard of all sorts of themed Japanese restaurants, for instance), but at least it affirms the claims of high popularity in the Asia, which could theoretically have caught the eye of Sakurai/Nintendo.

One of them better be Dynasty Warriors because no one else here seems to talk about it and I’m getting lonely lol.

I wonder sometimes if I should get into the mainline Dynasty Warriors games, as I really enjoyed Fire Emblem Warriors and am very excited for both Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity and Persona 5 Scramble. For now I'm content getting Musou gameplay in relatively small doses, but I imagine the series has been around as long as it has for a reason.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Alright, I'm gonna be skipping the Overrated characters, since they've all already been talked about at this point. As for the Underrated characters (in no particular order):

* Euden: Dragalia Lost has ZERO content in Smash, which is weird given that it's Nintendo's first original mobile IP. They're pretty dedicated to the market, so I think they'll add someone to promote that.

* Level-5 rep: I feel like they'll get something in Smash. Granted, I don't know if it'll be a character, but I think it'll happen.

That's... honestly all I can think of. Man, I need to expand my horizons...

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x10

 

[Johnknight1]

Overrated:

5. Isaac (Golden Sun):
His series is dead for the time being. He's an Assist Trophy in Ultimate. His series even got new music without any additional gameplay content. Isaac missed his chance with the huge gap between the Melee-Brawl release, he missed it again with the huge Brawl-Smash 4 release window. It sucks for Golden Sun fans (which includes me), but that's the reality.

4. Waluigi (Mario spin-offs):
Sakurai has publicly said he views Waluigi as a "joke" request most of the time. Waluigi lacks a main series Mario, Wario Land or Wario Ware appearance of any kind. Worst of all for Waluigi fans, Waluigi is currently an Assist Trophy. Waluigi is almost definitely not going to be playable in Smash Ultimate. On the bright side, at least he gets those appearances and still appears in Mario spin-offs.

3. Shantae:
Small character, small series, small market, overshadowed by a dozen other platformer characters, most notably Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayabusa and Rayman. She doesn't have the mass appeal nor the notoriety to make people want her. I don't think she's even in the same league as Cuphead or Sans. 3rd party characters in Smash Bros have to be All-Stars, and unfortunately Shantae is not one.

2. KOS-MOS (Xenosaga):
I helped make the joke fake leak that mentioned KOS-MOS, and since then "KOS-MOS for Smash" has consistently exploded. I don't know why people think this would be the one character Bandai Namco would want in Smash. It makes zero sense, that series is dead in the water, and far from the most noteworthy JRPG series left to get a character. One positive is the "KOS-MOS for Smash" crowd has been mostly well behaved in my experience.

1. Geno (Super Mario RPG):
Geno is a secondary character in the 3rd most important Mario game released in 1996. Even among Mario RPG characters, Paper Mario overshadows Geno by a lot. A lot of Geno's base moveset the Mii Gunner already does. That is why Geno was a Mii Gunner outfit in Smash 4, and why he will probably return to that role later down the DLC line. Lastly I need to say it... these Geno leak mongers are all frauds.


Underrated:

5. Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden):
While he's talked about, and while a number of people seem to be indifferent to him, it is weird how in a number of "characters I expect to see" list he is absent. Not a huge deal but it's a bit more than I expected. Also surprised how little discussion I see on him, given the unique balance of 2D vs. 3D era Ninja Gaiden you could see and the discussions and ideas that could spark. Here is a good article on him recently from Venus of the Desert Bloom

4. Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear):
Guilty Gear is probably the most underrated fighting game series of all-time, and its' impact is similarly so. Sol Badguy is maybe the coolest central character of any of the major fighting game companies, and he sticks out like a sore thumb. Guilty Gear mechanics for Sol in Smash could be glorious you could carry , as would the stellar Guilty Gear songs. But don't take my word for it, read up the article from Venus of the Desert Bloom on it.

3. Sora (Kingdom Hearts):
I believe deep in the Smash community's heart, the 3 characters that the most people wanted/the people who wanted them wanted them the most EVER are Sonic, Cloud AND Sora! In spite of that, we have an odd dichotomy clash between Disney corporate interests and the Sora Smash "magic" fan wishes. However IF Nintendo can get Disney to negotiate to get Sora in Smash (at a reasonable price), they almost definitely will.

2. Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza):
While Yakuza is a bit of a darling among certain action game fans and story-driven game fans and somewhat of an outsider past that, there's a certain appeal to that kind of character to wider audiences, much like Terry Bogard. Between Kiryu's cool stoic personality, his many fighting stances, and the style of Yakuza, there's a lot of mass appeal there. The moveset potential is out of this world. It's an easy fit and would be a great and popular choice.

1. Chosen Undead (Dark Souls)/Souls-related character:
I have no idea why Dark Souls characters are so seldom brought up by anyone in Smash speculation. The series is popular. FromSoftware have invented and re-invented a new sub-genre for over a decade. Souls is admired among Japanese developers. The moveset writes itself. It could be a few different characters chosen. And a Souls character would be unlike any Smash playable character. It is hard to see us not getting Souls-related content in Ultimate.

Nominate: Whoever the person who did the nomination before I did all 10 of my votes.

 

[Shinuto]

Overrated:

5. Isaac:
Isaac's support comes from being a cult classic combined with status of being an AT in Smash. He doesn't really have much else though, series is dead, character isn't super iconic or even noteworthy, and his only other real traits in his favor is some moveset potential. He's just not a character that has any reason to get in outside of the fan demand he has.

4. Steve:
Yeah, I know, gonna get some weird looks but let me explain. Steve is not a character to me, he moves rigidly, he can't really emote in any way, his design is dull and even his name is boring as it was pulled off the top of Notch's head from a Q&A panel iirc. People bring up how other already existing Smash characters like Villager, Mr. Game and Watch and ROB all prove Steve's problems aren't as problematic as they seem, but all these characters haveways to emote, key poses to simulate fluid movement and show off character traits, and non rigid limbs to express a sense of character. Steve is Minecraft's boy sure, but the "character" itself has nothing to it, and I struggle to see how he could be animated in way that would still feel "Minecraft" while also mixing will with Smash's style. He's just such a dull nonentity, that it ruins whatever creative potential he could have in terms of a moveset.

3. Quote
I understand Quote's place in terms of the indie scene and how long he has been around an what his game represents in it and what did for said environment. But Quote is owned by a very ****ty holder. And while Nintendo has defintely worked alongside companies that have done morally questionable acts before, Nicalis are untrustworthy, ghosting multiple developers in pulbishing their games. This does not show Nicalis as a company worth working with as they are not just "bad" but unreliable. Also Quote has not really had any new games outside of ports and remakes of his one game. I feel as a third party, you need to have something of an actual series or overwhelming support and other factors to make up for them ( i.e Banjo & Kazooie) And finally his support has seemed to drop in recent times.

2. Geno:
I'm actually in a weird spot with this since I'd LOVE Geno in Smash, but....so many supporters seem to place him as being WAAAY more likely than I think he actually is. The main BIG reason he still has so much support is due to Sakurai mentioning all the way from Brawl he considered/wanted to add him in.
People took this and ran with it. I know this is not the only factor driving his support, but it certainly seem like the most powerful. However, Sakurai has at many points stated his considerations for numerous characters throughout all the Smash titles, Mach Rider, Ayumi Tachibana, James Bond, Takamaru etc. Like Isaac, the ONLY reason Geno would get into Smash is due to fan demand. I highly doubt SE and Nintendo would work out any deal to bring him back into the limelight for something outside Smash. And unfortunately for Geno, I feel fan demand simply isn't enough for him to get in at this point.

1. Bandanna Waddle Dee:
Ahh BWD, the one character I actively cannot understand why they have so much support. I see many people state this little soldier of King Dedede's army as being full of personality and I just don't see it. He has Spear Kirby's moveset plastered to a waddle dee who's sole signifying trait is the piece of cloth he wears on his head.
I would say a spear user would be interesting for Smash, but relative to other Kirby characters that arent in Smash yet, Bandanna Dee has little to put on the table in comparison. Its not helped b the fact his status as the 4th main character in Kirby feels artificial and forced by the Kirby staff. BWD wasn't made the 4th due to becoming popular he was made popular because at the time he was introduced he worked as the ideal 4th member of what was a trio for the longest time. I don't feel he earned his place, he was put into and the fans just accepted it as truth.

Underrated:

5. KOS-MOS:
KOS-MOS is a character that seems to not have a lot of support due to lack of understanding for her background. Monolith-Soft LOVE KOS-MOS, it's the reason she had a guest appearance in Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and from Namco's side she is basically their crossover queen, much like Morrigan is for Capcom. She has plenty to work with as a character and though her series is dead, its clear the people who made her still very much care for her and want to keep using her. We know with Monolith-Soft that they have a very positive relation with Nintendo, the same goes for Namco, while some may argue for a Tekken or Tales character, I feel KOS-MOS has certain aspects that would make her a more unique and interesting pick for Smash.

4. Reimu
Reimu is special in that she has INSANE history and influence in the doujin circle of videogames in Japan. Touhou is so absurdly popular in its home country that it has its own convention dedicated to it. We also know that ZUN does wish to get involved with Smash. Though Touhou is not nearly as big in other areas of the world, Smash could absolutely lessen that gap for it. Reimu would also bring multiple unique attributes and mechanics to Smash almost no other non touhou character could bring. grazing, bullet hell properties, her Fantasy Nature could be implemented in a number of ways to give her a truly unique presence in the roster of Smash.

3. Sora:
For Sora, the argument I have is simple, people vastly overestimate Disney's supposed rigidness in working up a deal with Nintendo to get him in Smash.

2. 2B:
2B is fairly new character, one with no attachment to Nintendo, but she certainly established herself as an iconic charcter in the eyes of many since her game's debut. She's a just a character that would feel very fun to play in Smash given the wealth and abilities she would have access to from her game. As Sakurai said, it's not about popularity or recognizability, but how fun they are to play that is a key factor in a character getting in, and I think 2B has that in spades.

1. Shantae
Okay obvious bias here as I have frequently stated my 100% want for Shantae, but I feel she hits EVERY mark for a character to get into Smash, tons of fun moveset potential with her many transformations, her various magical abilities, the martial arts techniques she displays, and even the pirate's gear she borrows from Risky. She has a likable and charming design brimming with personality and charm in terms of her character.
Her series is not only alive, but is continuing to have new games released rather recently with Seven Sirens. She shows that despite a massive trip in her first step into the gaming world with her debut game's commercial failure, one can still manage to jump back out and thrive. Think of how many characters that had one critically successful but commercially bombed game and never saw the light of day again. Shantae despite the all the odds against her, managed to survive into the current year from a GBC game with a female main protagonist (remember at the time doing that was basically suicide for your game's success) that came out a whole YEAR after it successor was already on the market, had little overall advertising, and sold less than 10,000 copies with no restocks. The fact a character like her even HAS a spirit in Smash given all that is nothing short of incredible. Shantae also continues to gain more and more support and fans over in Japan, which will undoubtedly increase Nintendo's view on her.WayForward also has an overall strong relation with Nintendo and has been one of the most vocal supporters of their own character to get in Smash. This would show to Nintendo that they can be trusted as a partner company. One last thing, during Paper Mario The Origami King's showcase stream, they announced a third party game. It was a Warner Bros. published game based on the Bakugan IP. They didn't announce as a Warner Bros title. They used WayForward's name. They knew their name would get people's attention.

 

[Johnknight1]

Didn't reach much of the thread before I posted (so I didn't get my opinions influenced), and I'm surprised how many other people also listed The Chosen Undead as an underrated character pick. Feels like a lot of other people are thinking similar things to myself.

1. BotW Zelda - Yes, I'm serious. Just hear me out for a sec.

In both waves of DLC thus far, a spot was left open to be decided at a later date. This spot's purpose? To include a character from a game released between Smash's release and DLC's end. In Wii U/3DS, it was Corrin. In Fighter Pass #1, it was Byleth. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo liked this idea enough to revisit it even after Corrin's lackluster response, so I really think this is going to be a reoccuring theme throughout any future DLC that's done for Smash. Similarly, both these characters came from games that released about 6 to 8 months before their Smash debut. Assuming this character is going to be the last fighter of the pass, that means we're looking at an April to June 2021 release for this character. The one Nintendo game we know is in the oven that could realistically release during that period? BotW 2.

Okay, so we've arrived at BotW 2, but how do we get to Zelda from there? Well, looking to the one trailer we have, there's three characters: Link (who already has his BotW form in the game), the dry man we know nothing about, and Zelda. In particular, we can observe two things about Zelda from this trailer. First, she's cut her hair short. This may be little more than a design change, but it's a common trope in East Asian fiction to have a female character cut previously long hair when taking a more proactive role. This proactive role can be seen in the second observation, Zelda is actively adventuring with Link instead of being a living plot device.

Now, let's think back to the original BotW. Even when the game was first announced all the way back in 2014, what was one of the first major questions that emerge? "Can I play as a female Link?". On the first glimpse of Link's more androgynous appearance, demand for a gender option emerged and quickly snowballed from there. This, combined with the evidence of a more action-oriented Zelda, really makes me think she'll be a full playable character. This incarnation of Zelda is notably popular and perhaps it was deemed to break the lore/brand too much to give a true female Link, so a playable Zelda was the next best thing?

If Zelda is playable in BotW 2, then takes away the issue that initially scared Sakurai away from her. She may be scholar, but now she has a much stronger adventurer element to go with it. Additionally, this creates a good opportunity to build a full BotW moveset from the ground up. BotW deviates so much from many of Zelda's tropes, just giving BotW elements to a Link that's meant to represent the entire series feels like we're only scratching the surface of what could be done bringing that gameplay style to Smash. Weapons beyond the broadsword and boomerang, the Sheikah runes, and the Champion's abilities would all work great in a moveset.

It does require a few assumptions, but none of those assumptions are too in my opinion. BotW Zelda is a popular character with a ton of moveset potential that's basically fighting against no competition for a spot that has historically been reserved for characters in her position. Call us Link for the 100 years after the calamity, because we are sleeping on Zelda.

I wouldn't list BotW Zelda, but I agree it would be a sick character, is maybe slept on, would get a ton of positive reactions. This was a very bold pick and the best bold pick I listed.

Whelp. This should be fun, shouldn't it? I feel like a few of my opinions will be controversial, but someone's gotta be the contrarian sometimes, right?

Overrated:

3. Phoenix Wright

• Simply put, I don't think Sakurai would pick Phoenix. The moveset potential just isn't there. Yes, I've played Marvel vs Capcom 3, but comparing that game to Smash is an apples and oranges situation. A moveset for Phoenix was made to work for a more traditional fighting game, but I just can't see it translating to Smash effectively. Would he bring representation to a fan-favorite series with a long history on Nintendo consoles? Absolutely! But would he be fun to play in the context of Smash? I'm not convinced, and I don't think Sakurai is either. There are Capcom reps who would work far better in Smash, and I would put money on Sakurai being aware of this.

If a character can work in Marvel, they can work in Smash Bros. The series are a lot more alike one another than you would think. Only problem with Phoenix Wright is his moveset in UMvC3 was wonky and janky. Those issues are very easy to fix, in Mahvel 4, CvS3 or Smash Ultimate.

 

[SharkLord]

Didn't reach much of the thread before I posted (so I didn't get my opinions influenced), and I'm surprised how many other people also listed The Chosen Undead as an underrated character pick. Feels like a lot of other people are thinking similar things to myself.

Yeah, Lara Croft and Chosen Undead seem to be the two biggest sleeper picks. At this rate, I'm not sure they'd even count as underrated characters a short while from now.
On the flipside, it seems the most "overrated" characters are the resident hot ****-Geno, Shantae, KOS-MOS, a Galar Pokemon, etc. Reimu seems to be the one character we can't come to a consensus on. Seeing as I'm a big Touhou fan and Reimu supporter, this puts me in an... Awkward situation, to say the least.

 

[Lionfranky]

My another hot take is Master Chief being underrated but I didn't feel compelled enough to put him on the list. Out of 20 millions sales, Japan accounts 3.8 million. Still impressive number, but I'm not sure that's the number that dissuade Nintendo from pursuing western characters. Halo isn't obscure in Japan. You just don't get Japanese anime studios to produce out of the game if it were so obscure there. I can say that Reimu has far worse regional problem.

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

Out of 20 millions sales, Japan accounts 3.8 million.

...Hasn't the xbox literally sold less than 3.8 million across all three iterations in Japan? Xbox One has sold barely above 100,000 units in total there, while Xbox 360 did quite a bit better at over 1.6 million.
The original xbox sold less than half a million units there.

 

[GoodGrief741]

My another hot take is Master Chief being underrated but I didn't feel compelled enough to put him on the list. Out of 20 millions sales, Japan accounts 3.8 million. Still impressive number, but I'm not sure that's the number that dissuade Nintendo from pursuing western characters. Halo isn't obscure in Japan. You just don't get Japanese anime studios to produce out of the game if it were so obscure there. I can say that Reimu has far worse regional problem.

3.8 million? Are you sure about that? Those are big numbers for any series in Japan, let alone a Western one.

I'm not arguing that Halo is a success in Japan as far as Western franchises go, but I'd be shocked if those were its actual sales numbers.

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai has at many points stated his considerations for numerous characters throughout all the Smash titles, Mach Rider, Ayumi Tachibana, James Bond, Takamaru etc.

sakurai never considered bond, he said there would be far to many legal problems is response to people suggesting him

 

[Lionfranky]

...Hasn't the xbox literally sold less than 3.8 million across all three iterations in Japan? Xbox One has sold barely above 100,000 units in total there, while Xbox 360 did quite a bit better at over 1.6 million.
The original xbox sold less than half a million units there.

There are series in Smash worse than that. The point is Japan shouldn't be too much of roadblock when more than half of sales come from non-Japanese territory. If MS offered Chief, would Nintendo say "Sorry your brand is not so popular in Japan, so no thank you!"? I think that's rather another reason MS would push. "We want to expand our brand in Japan. We will lend you Banjo, but you have put Chief as well."
If Reimu has legitimate arguments, Chief has way better argument to back up.

3.8 million? Are you sure about that? Those are big numbers for any series in Japan, let alone a Western one.

I'm not arguing that Halo is a success in Japan as far as Western franchises go, but I'd be shocked if those were its actual sales numbers.

https://www.famitsu.com/news/202008/27204715.html

10位（前回9位）　Switch　大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ SPECIAL
7230本（累計380万3838本）／任天堂／2018年12月7日

This is Smash Ultimate's sales in Japan. I posted this since someone asked for proof for Ultimate's sales figure in Japan.
You can check "累計380万3838本" use kanji dictionary to verify yourself.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

There are series in Smash worse than that. The point is Japan shouldn't be too much of roadblock when more than half of sales come from non-Japanese territory. If MS offered Chief, would Nintendo say "Sorry your brand is not so popular in Japan, so no thank you!"? I think that's rather another reason MS would push. "We want to expand our brand in Japan. We will lend you Banjo, but you have put Chief as well."
If Reimu has legitimate arguments, Chief has way better argument to back up.

https://www.famitsu.com/news/202008/27204715.html

You can check "累計380万3838本" use kanji dictionary to verify yourself.

The way you worded it made them think Halo sold 3.8 million in Japan, though your point about Japan not even making 25% of Ultimate sales isn't a bad one

 

[Lionfranky]

The way you worded it made them think Halo sold 3.8 million in Japan, though your point about Japan not even making 25% of Ultimate sales isn't a bad one

Well I did best as I could not to confuse others. That's what multi-quote is for. Still, I think people should drop "Japan" argument. We've seen fanrules and assumption getting broken time to time. Trend doesn't equal rule or even likeness. Well of course, trend is good way to measure, but Halo can more than make up for Japan side.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I'm gonna be speaking mainly about chances, and not if the characters themselves are good or not.


Overrated

5) 2B
I don't know why some people treat 2B as a highly likely character when it comes to Smash. Nier Automata was a breakout game for sure and there's more coming in the future. The problem is....the rest of Square Enix's line-up. You have Lara Croft, a character that has worldwide mainstream attention and is the third biggest IP owned by Square Enix. You have Sora and Geno as the fan favorites to choose from. And then you have Bravely as a possible promotional pick. When you look at all these characters, it's a bit hard imagining 2B getting over them all. Sure Joker was in a similair status to 2B, but Joker was the biggest face for Atlus at the time what with Persona 5 selling a butt ton of copies, 2B doesn't have that privilege.

4) Shantae
Poor Shantae lost her chance and it seems like she ain't getting in. This series had momentum back in the Wii U days when not a lot of companies supported Nintendo except for a very few like Wayforward. Now that everyone is jumping on the Switch, what made Shantae special seems to have vanished. She still has her fan support, but that can only help you very far. Especially since the series is unknown in Japan.

3) Bandana Dee
Throughout the years people have complained over Sakurai having a Star Fox bias, a Kid Icarus bias, and a Fire Emblem bias. While you can argue the authenticity of some of those, the one bias I feel is completely accurate is the Kirby bias. It's a bias against adding newer elements from Kirby to Smash. This one image will explain all what I want to say quickly. Basically I don't see Bandana Dee ever getting in while Sakurai is in charge.

2) Sakura Shinguji
Yeah I don't see it. This is a series that spent most of it's life stuck in Japan and not reaching overseas territory, it didn't even achieve a similair cult following like Touhou did overseas. The latest game only got translated and released in the west because Sega asked for the Yakuza translators help. Which brings me to my next point, why Sakura over Arle and Kiryu who not only come from bigger franchises but have also achieved a more successful time overseas compared to Sakura? Sure you don't have to be the biggest franchise to get in Smash, but I seriously doubt a franchise like Sakura Wars which has been struggling is gonna be next in line.

1) Geno
This is probably the most likely character I have as overrated lol. But that's mainly because of the absurd amount of "geno confirmed" posts I've seen whenever something slightly Geno related has been talked about for the past two years. We know about his shortcomings and we know about his strengths. I just don't know why this character is so polarizing and results in a "he's in" and "no he's not" split. It shouldn't be that binary but it is like that when it comes to Geno sadly.


Underrated

5) Estelle/Adol/Falcom rep
Falcom in general get very little mention in Smash discussion. Which is a shame because Falcom has a long and important history concerning the gaming industry while at the same time they keep developing more video games. Falcom has an interesting history with them developing games on PC all the way back since the 80s, something that very few Japanese game developers ever did. I understand that Falcom isn't this big company that is known worldwide, but honestly even if they're not that well known their contribution to the Japanese gaming industry should be noted. Especially since many directors that are famous today had their start in Falcom, like Takahashi of Xeno fame.

4) Gordon Freeman
Look, this is the poster boy of PC's biggest distribution platform. For what it's worth Steam has become synonymous with PC gaming. We know Sakurai has praised the Half-Life series before and we know Valve and Nintendo kinda talked with each other early during the Switch's life but nothing came out of it. I feel like with how big Valve is, this is something that must have been mentioned at least once during the board room meetings for discussing the next pass.

3) Steve
You'd think being the most sold video game of all time would put you in everyone's radar. But uhh it seems people are for some reason ignoring the possibility of a Minecraft playable character in Smash. Hand waving it with "ehh he'll be a mii costume" or other gestures. There aren't really any strong arguments against the addition of Steve. The most common argument I've seen is "He doesn't fit the game's art style" which is incredibly wrong as you have wide different array of art styles being represented in Smash ranging from realistic looking characters like Snake, cereal mascots like Yoshi, and anime characters like Byleth. If all these characters can get in the same game then I don't see why Steve with his simple lego art style can't.

2) Lara Croft
This character is slept on. Most of the discussion concerning Square Enix covers many different characters....yet Lara barely gets any. Tomb Raider is the third biggest franchise owned by SE right after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. It's a franchise that SE themselves treat as their third pillar. That's not even going into Lara herself, Lara is Ms. Video Games, she's well known worldwide in the mainstream and her games sell a LOT. Even Shadow of the Tomb Raider, which didn't sell that well compared to it's predecessors sold over 4 million copies. We haven't even gotten in the non-gaming side of things, which includes comics and a movie. Bottmline is give Lara her respect dangit.

1) Monster Hunter
If I got a dollar for every time someone said "But Monster Hunter already has base game content" I'd get enough money to buy the Valve Index. ARMS also had base game content yet it got a playable character, I'd argue the differences in base game content between ARMS and Monster Hunter isn't really that big when you remember ARMS had a Spring Man assist trophy. Monster Hunter is huge as ****, not just in Japan, but also worldwide thanks to World. World is currently Capcom's biggest sold game and that's not even counting the Iceborne expansion DLC. With rumors about a Switch exclusive Monster Hunter game I can easily see Nintendo capitalizing on this with a Monster Hunter character for Smash DLC.



As for nominations uhhhh, I'll drop all 10 on Monster Hunter

 

[warpenguin55]

Out of a roster that big, who stands out as iconic?
My guess would be Crystal Maiden Teemo, but I don't see him fitting in Smash that well. Maybe as an assist trophy.

Going by popularity alone, Teemo is definitely up there. Other some other options include Ahri, Ezreal, Jinx, Lee Sin, Lux, and Ryze. There are others too, but I'm either forgetting them or just didn't think they're popular. I think I heard Irelia is pretty popular in China, but for some reason none of the LoL stat sites have any data from the Chinese servers, so IDK for sure. Also Ekko is getting his own game, and my assumption is that Lucian and Senna are getting their own game too.

I agree that Teemo wouldn't work well in Smash. He's got several mechanics that would either be toxic for a fighting game or don't translate well into one.

 

[fogbadge]

for the a billionth time people sora is owned by disney he will not affect SE characters at all

 

[TraaP]

Underrated
5. Lara Croft - looked over in favour of other Square Enix characters, albeit she has a legacy in a gaming.
4. Neku - looked over in favour of other Square Enix characters. Also, with an anime and a potential sequel coming, his chances are higher than people think.
3. Ryu Hayabusa - history, uniqueness, company has a good relationship with Nintendo.
2. Sora - people are trying to shrug him off with excuses like “Disney this, Disney that”. When, they actually see him as competition for characters they want, e.g. Geno, 2B.
1. Chell - never hear people talk about her. Iconic game, well known company.

Overrated
5. Rayman - becoming irrelevant and obsolete- sadly.
4. Pokemon Generation 8 - I don’t think that Nintendo would push for a pokemon rep to be dlc, I feel that they would rather have characters like Byleth, as they would rather leave the Pokemon Company to their own advertising.
3. Crash - a too late rebirth.
2. Waluigi - him and Geno’s fanbases have been waiting for ages for their character’s inclusion, and have grown fatigued/frustrated at this being their seemingly “last” chance. Also, to me they appear jealous of King K Rool, Ridley & Banjo & Kazooie - who have had longer and stronger fanbases. Hence, they keep forcing their opinions on everyone else.
1. Geno - his fans look for every nook and cranny for evidence towards his addition, it is getting quite ridiculous.

 

[GoodGrief741]

There are series in Smash worse than that. The point is Japan shouldn't be too much of roadblock when more than half of sales come from non-Japanese territory. If MS offered Chief, would Nintendo say "Sorry your brand is not so popular in Japan, so no thank you!"? I think that's rather another reason MS would push. "We want to expand our brand in Japan. We will lend you Banjo, but you have put Chief as well."
If Reimu has legitimate arguments, Chief has way better argument to back up.

https://www.famitsu.com/news/202008/27204715.html

You can check "累計380万3838本" use kanji dictionary to verify yourself.

Dude, I thought you meant Halo had sold 3.8mil in Japan, not Smash Ultimate.

I get what you're saying now but man, wording.

 

[Lionfranky]

Alright, poor wording, I edited to remove further misunderstanding.

 

[Mariomaniac45213]

Overrated: 5 Characters that I don't like

Underrated: 5 Characters that I like

There I summed up everyone's opinions and saved you pages of reading. You're welcome.

 

[Shinuto]

Overrated: 5 Characters that I don't like

Underrated: 5 Characters that I like

There I summed up everyone's opinions and saved you pages of reading. You're welcome.

bull I like 3 of my overrated I only hate Steve and BWD

 

[SharkLord]

Overrated: 5 Characters that I don't like

Underrated: 5 Characters that I like

There I summed up everyone's opinions and saved you pages of reading. You're welcome.

And this is everyone's reactions whenever they see someone talk **** about their favorites:

There. Now we have summed up both the statements and the debates that resulted.

 

[warpenguin55]

Overrated: 5 Characters that I don't like

Underrated: 5 Characters that I like

There I summed up everyone's opinions and saved you pages of reading. You're welcome.

That is incorrect. My post has Rex at #5 over rated, who I like. So hah

 

[Mr. MR]

I wonder sometimes if I should get into the mainline Dynasty Warriors games, as I really enjoyed Fire Emblem Warriors and am very excited for both Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity and Persona 5 Scramble. For now I'm content getting Musou gameplay in relatively small doses, but I imagine the series has been around as long as it has for a reason.

I would wait first for the Dynasty Warriors 20th anniversary livestream on the 27th where they are going to announce new games before buying anything right now. Other than that Dynasty Warriors 8 goes on sale once in a while on the Switch eShop.

Going by popularity alone, Teemo is definitely up there. Other some other options include Ahri, Ezreal, Jinx, Lee Sin, Lux, and Ryze. There are others too, but I'm either forgetting them or just didn't think they're popular. I think I heard Irelia is pretty popular in China, but for some reason none of the LoL stat sites have any data from the Chinese servers, so IDK for sure. Also Ekko is getting his own game, and my assumption is that Lucian and Senna are getting their own game too.

I agree that Teemo wouldn't work well in Smash. He's got several mechanics that would either be toxic for a fighting game or don't translate well into one.

lol
I don’t follow League anymore but this single player Ekko game sounds like an interesting step for Riot. Right now I think the problem with LoL getting into Smash (among other reasons) is the roster is just too huge and doesn’t have any standouts but this might not be true for the next Smash game. You both are slowly convincing me lol.

And this is everyone's reactions whenever they see someone talk **** about their favorites:

<img src="/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fphotos%2Fimages%2Foriginal%2F000%2F706%2F073%2F4cf.jpg&hash=b87260eb5466a2be52d6c80b2ce4537c" data-url="https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/706/073/4cf.jpg" class="bbImage" data-zoom-target="1" style="" />
There. Now we have summed up both the statements and the debates that resulted.

Hey, I think the discussion has been productive. I have been learning more about Touhou from you than I have before. I still don’t think Touhou will get in but I haven’t fully put my gut feelings into words yet. Before this I didn’t even know who Reimu was. I have heard of Touhou and it’s reputation more than I hear about the characters. And if I did hear about the characters, I never connected the two. My raw opinion as an outsider is Touhou is first music, then bullethell, then fanremixes of the games, then community, then the characters themselves.

Edit:

Overrated: 5 Characters that I don't like

Underrated: 5 Characters that I like

There I summed up everyone's opinions and saved you pages of reading. You're welcome.

Ok, you got me lol. At least for Ezio and Hornet for the underrated. I truly think Dynasty Warriors is so far below most peoples radars that I need to shill for Lu Bu even harder because there's some big crossovers with Omega Force that people aren't considering for Dynasty Warriors chances.
But I still hate Urshifu.

 

[3DSNinja]

OVERRATED

5. Geno
He really just has fan demand and Sakurai going for him. While I would say he is rather likely, I'm not saying he's a lock or confirmed. But he is pretty overrated on the mark of saying he's a lock, when he has 75% tops.


4. Waluigi
I don't exactly get why people think he's likely when fan demand for 2 games straight couldn't get him in, and most of the spirits he could have come with are already in the game. There's a ton of Mario Kart and Sports content, and Waluigi just doesn't have much going for him. His fan demand isn't enough if Nintendo literally does not care about him, and unlike Geno, he doesn't have Sakurai on his side.

3. Paper Mario
This is similar logic to my number 1, but Paper Mario straight up got a spirit event. And unlike the Gen 8 one where it was FP1 so you could make an excuse, this was released in FP2. Why is he likely when he quite literally just got a buttload of content put in the game and not with him as a DLC character? We didn't get a Three Houses spirit event, and we got a Three Houses character.

2. Rex
..This one just straight up confuses me. Xenoblade 2 already has a lot of content, the Mii costume was literally an apology because he couldn't be in the game, and yet people say he's really likely? what? Hell, Nintendo hasn't even acknowelged Xenoblade 2 since the Torna DLC, and I doubt they'll introduce him, especially with the planned Xenoblade 1 remake that would've been a thing around FP1, and a possible X remake that also probably would've been in the works around that time.

1. Gen 8 Pokemon.

HOOO BOY. Well, this one is honestly one of the most overrated? Why? ...They already had a spirit DLC event. Everyone regarded this as deconfirmiation for Astral Chain, and for Resident Evil, and for Paper Mario, but apparently, Gen 8 is immune? Why? Also, Nintendo has never introduced two Pokemon gens in the same game. Why would they do so now? As well, it's not like there's fan demand for it, and if FP2 was decided around June...Nintendo probably would've seen the vitriolic reactions to Gen 8, which makes it even less likely


UNDERRATED

5. Yu Narukami/Demi-Fiend
I'm packing these two together because I think they're both pretty damn likely all things considered, with the recent P4 boom that Nintendo definently knew was coming with P4G on PC (Atlus probably would tell them so that Yu could get in lol), and the rerelease of SMT3, both of this characters have gotten a huge boost in chances to be put in Smash Bros, and yet everyone dismisses them by saying, BUT JOKER ALREADY IN THE GAME SMH. So? Just because a franchise got a character in FP1 doesn't automatically deconfirm them.


4. Shovel Knight
People completely dismiss him on the basis that he's an assist trophy when he still has a lot going for him, to the point that people completly dismiss him as a possibility to be in the game at this point. Honestly, besides Isaac, he's the most likely AT promotion. Remember, Shovel Knight was the first amiibo made for a non-Nintendo game. And it's incredibly popular, and he has everything you would need for a Smash moveset. As well, Yacht Club themselves want him in Smash.

3. Elma
People keep saying that Rex will get in and completely ignore the other Xenoblade pick who doesn't have any music and has far less content and didn't get a Mii costume apologizing that she couldn't be in the game. As well, X probably will get a port soon, and she's fairly popular in the smash community. It would make sense to put her in to bring attention to X, especially since X has a dearth of content in Ultimate.

2. Monokuma/Any Danganronpa Character
People pass over Monokuma by saying that Phoenix Wright is likelier, which may be true, but has that ever stopped Sakurai? Danganronpa is a huge franchise and the 10th aniverssary is this year, making a Smash character really smart as a buisness decision.. Come back to me and say a DR char is overrated when Shuichi gets 0's across the board.

1. Neku Sakuraba
Honestly the most likely character for the game and no one acknowelegdes him. TWEWY has Final Remix, the new anime, and TWEW2 coming, and yet people just pass over Neku for Geno or Lara. When in reality he's far more likely just based off of the new stuff, and he's fairly popular, something Lara doesn't have going for her. While I do think Geno does have a decent shot, I do believe Neku is far more likely then him in general.

Nominations: Hajime Hinata x10

 

[fogbadge]

a lot of people say neku is underrated. surely that proves he isnt?

 

[Mr. MR]

a lot of people say neku is underrated. surely that proves he isnt?

This thread seems to be the exception for a lot of things.

 

[Calamitas]

a lot of people say neku is underrated. surely that proves he isnt?

Smash speculation is bigger than just this thread, buddy.

 

[3DSNinja]

Anyone else gonna talk about the rest of my picks besides Neku?

 

[Shinuto]

This thread seems to be the exception for a lot of things.

Whats your icon? source

 

[Lyncario]

Anyone else gonna talk about the rest of my picks besides Neku?

SMT isn't Persona. However, both are part of the larger Megami Tensei multiverse.

 

[3DSNinja]

I know that, I play a lot of SMT/Persona. But people often say that an SMT rep won't get in because of there being Persona representation.
Also, SMT IF is canon to Persona.

 

[Mr. MR]

Anyone else gonna talk about the rest of my picks besides Neku?

I'll do yours if you do mine.

Whats your icon? source

It's Flayn from Fire Emblem Three Kingdoms Houses

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

Spoiler: Where's Waldo

 

[Lyncario]

I know that, I play a lot of SMT/Persona. But people often say that an SMT rep won't get in because of there being Persona representation.
Also, SMT IF is canon to Persona.

Ok, it's just that I see people talking about SMT and Persona as if they were the same series way too often so I kinda have the reflex of saying that. I also think that it's kinda important to say that MegaTen and SMT are different in the way that MegaTen is pretty much every series that Atlus does with the SMT demons in it, with every sub series not being mainline in a way similar to how Mario Party and Paper Mario are not mainline Mario, especialy since the only games with the Shin Megami Tensei prefix in Japan are SMT1, 2, If, 3, SJ, 4, 4A, and hopefully soon enough 5, while the other series don't have it, even if they are directly linked to it in a very meaningfull way like how Digital Devil Saga not only refer to the events in SMT2 but also Demi-Fiend is in it, yet it's still not mainline SMT.

TL;DR, It would be like how Wario is a Wario character instead of a Mario character in my opinion.

 

[3DSNinja]

It is rather important, but people always downplay that and say since Persona is in, SMT is locked out.

 

[Lyncario]

Which is really dumb because we don't even have some staples SMT demons as spirit, and not even a Jack Frost mii costume.

 

[PeridotGX]

It's been a few minutes since I was here.... here we go.

Less likely then people say
(I'm not going to order these).

Rillaboom - I don't think a Gen 8 Pokemon as a whole is very likely (Spirit Event), but Rillaboom really doesn't have much going for him. Cinderance has the Anime, Urshifu has the promotional aspect, even some of the less talked about characters have more going for them (Inteleon and Sirfech'd also have Anime importance and Dragapult is officially the most popular Gen 8 Pokemon). I feel like the only reason he's so expected is because of the insistence we get a grass type to finish a quota.

Zelda rep - Recently I've been seeing people say that a new Zelda character is a lock, but I'm not buying it. If we were going to get a Zelda rep, they wouldn't have made the Ancient Soldier Mii Costume a pre-order bonus.

Doomguy - The devs literally said he's not happening. I don't feel like this needs more explaination.

Bandana Dee - I love this guy, but he's not happening. We're yet to get a supporting character as DLC, and I'd sooner expect Waluigi to do that.

Shantae - If Shovel Knight and Undertale, much bigger games, couldn't make it, what hope does she have? If we're going to get an indie, it'll be either Reimu or Quote, and I don't think either of them are that likely.

There are also a few other characters who I think the chances of are overblown (Crash, Geno), but that's not much more than a gut feeling so I won't delve into it.

More Likely than people say

a non Gen 8 Pokemon - I think there's a reasonable chance that if there's a Pokemon DLC character, they might not call Galar home. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon DX never got a spirit event, and the popularity poll has to be leading up to something.

Chell (Portal) - Whenever the idea of a Valve rep comes up, it's either Heavy or Gordan Freeman, but I think there's a third solid option. Portal and Portal 2 are two of the most popular games ever, and Chell could have a rather unique move set via the portal gun.

Contra guys - Whenever someone thinks of a third party retro rep, it's almost always Ryu Hayabusa. I think there's another very solid option: Contra guy. Contra was one of the most popular games back then, and Konami's already on the table.

Bravely Default rep - Nintendo's been promoting Bravely Default 2 a lot. Remember what happened the last time Nintendo promoted a SE game that heavily?

Dhovakiin - Todd Howard's creation is one of the most popular games of the recent gaming era, and was literally the second game ever shown running on Switch. There was a time where I thought he was a lock for pass 1, and I still think he's quite reasonable.

Noms: Maxwell x however many noms i have today

 

[amageish]

General Thought: I feel like any character that has had a high-profile fake leak about them is a bit OP in this discussion... When a character gets the attention of everyone, even if it's just for a ~24 hour period like Tracer had, it's hard to say they weren't briefly overrated in retrospect, especially as people work hard to justify the "decision" of their inclusion. That said, I don't think that those periods of leak-based discussion reflects much on the general community impressions of those characters once the fervor is over.

Well, expect that 5chan leak which put Doomguy and Hayabusa on the map ever since.

Anyone else gonna talk about the rest of my picks besides Neku?

Sure, why not?

I doubt they'd double-dip on Persona in particular, barring sudden echo DLC or maybe giving P3/4 spirit events one day. Sakurai definitely seems to be setting up new moveset types with DLC and has already established how Persona-summoning works, so I imagine it'd be a demon summoner in some form with multiple demons just for variety... Additionally, it's still super weird that ATLUS got any content in Smash and Jack Frost is nowhere to be seen to me...

I do find it surprising Shovel Knight hasn't re-gained support/discussion after Min Min, but I'm guessing the combined thought processes of "ATs may deconfirm" following Spring Man's non-reveal and "No indies can be playable" following Sans' mii costume hurts him.

Elma's definitely a character with a small set of people rallying behind her against the general assumption Rex is confirmed. Xenoblade definitely feels like a franchise that could use more middle ground when people discuss potential reps for it.

Thanks for including "Any Danganronpa Character" and not just Monokuma. I appreciate it when people remember the game actually has protagonists and secondary characters with unique moveset potential that would actually represent how those games play and not just how characters die... I do think it's very much a stars-have-to-align-properly franchise for getting into Smash Bros, but I get why you could say it's underdiscussed overall. So, yeah, you gain +1 friendship point with amageish for that one. Good, it seems like we both had a lot of fun.

 

[SharkLord]

It's been a few minutes since I was here.... here we go.

Less likely then people say
(I'm not going to order these).

Rillaboom - I don't think a Gen 8 Pokemon as a whole is very likely (Spirit Event), but Rillaboom really doesn't have much going for him. Cinderance has the Anime, Urshifu has the promotional aspect, even some of the less talked about characters have more going for them (Inteleon and Sirfech'd also have Anime importance and Dragapult is officially the most popular Gen 8 Pokemon). I feel like the only reason he's so expected is because of the insistence we get a grass type to finish a quota.

Zelda rep - Recently I've been seeing people say that a new Zelda character is a lock, but I'm not buying it. If we were going to get a Zelda rep, they wouldn't have made the Ancient Soldier Mii Costume a pre-order bonus.

Doomguy - The devs literally said he's not happening. I don't feel like this needs more explaination.

Bandana Dee - I love this guy, but he's not happening. We're yet to get a supporting character as DLC, and I'd sooner expect Waluigi to do that.

Shantae - If Shovel Knight and Undertale, much bigger games, couldn't make it, what hope does she have? If we're going to get an indie, it'll be either Reimu or Quote, and I don't think either of them are that likely.

There are also a few other characters who I think the chances of are overblown (Crash, Geno), but that's not much more than a gut feeling so I won't delve into it.

More Likely than people say

a non Gen 8 Pokemon - I think there's a reasonable chance that if there's a Pokemon DLC character, they might not call Galar home. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon DX never got a spirit event, and the popularity poll has to be leading up to something.

Chell (Portal) - Whenever the idea of a Valve rep comes up, it's either Heavy or Gordan Freeman, but I think there's a third solid option. Portal and Portal 2 are two of the most popular games ever, and Chell could have a rather unique move set via the portal gun.

Contra guys - Whenever someone thinks of a third party retro rep, it's almost always Ryu Hayabusa. I think there's another very solid option: Contra guy. Contra was one of the most popular games back then, and Konami's already on the table.

Bravely Default rep - Nintendo's been promoting Bravely Default 2 a lot. Remember what happened the last time Nintendo promoted a SE game that heavily?

Dhovakiin - Todd Howard's creation is one of the most popular games of the recent gaming era, and was literally the second game ever shown running on Switch. There was a time where I thought he was a lock for pass 1, and I still think he's quite reasonable.

Noms: Maxwell x however many noms i have today

Actually, they have names. The bootleg Arnold Schwarzenegger is Bill Razer, the Sylvester Stallone-looking guy's Lance Bean. Any similarities to the aforementioned '80s action heroes are most likely intentional. There's also Lucia and Jaguar, but Bill and Lance are more iconic by a large margin.

 

[fogbadge]

This thread seems to be the exception for a lot of things.

that may true of a lot of the fandom

Smash speculation is bigger than just this thread, buddy.

do you enjoy patronising people?