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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
How was Billy Bitcher not censored I don't understand

Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x219
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x210
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x196
Concept: A Bravely Default character x195
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x195
Alex Mason x185

200 - 151

Impa (Age of Calamity) x165

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x150
Adol Christin x150
Echo: Coco (Crash) x130
Red (Angry Birds) x125
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x115
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x104

100 - 51

Zero (Mega Man) x95
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x95
Miriam x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Hajime Hinata x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
[Rerate] The Knight x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
[Rerate] Monokuma x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
Ghirahim x50
Don-chan x50
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x50
Carl Johnson x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Cynthia (Pokémon) x20
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x20
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Qbby x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Tetris x10
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10
Echo (Bowser) x10
Crazy Dave x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5

Neptune rockets past Concept: Content from currently unreleased game, beyond 200 noms and right into second place. Arthur fights past Alex Mason and ties with Concept: A Bravely Default character for fifth place.

Concept: Second F-Zero rep races past 100 noms.

Echo: Zeraora, Jin Kazama and The Knight pass 50 noms.

BlueEyedGrimmbat BlueEyedGrimmbat Marisa doesn't have a support thread, anyone else you'd like to nominate in her stead?

Blaster Master

Chance: 5%
So from what I understand, Blaster Master was originally made by Sunsoft but now Inti Creates owns the license to it. Blaster Master does benefit from being a classic NES game but has a ton of competition with other more popular picks. Blaster Master was mostly popular in the West and while the new games seem to have done well the series still feels relatively niche. Also if Nintendo talked to Inti Creates about adding a character then there's a good chance that they'd go with Gunvolt instead since he seems to be much more popular.

Want: Abstain
I never got around to really playing through the original Blaster Master game so my only real experience with the series is through Super Mario Crossover. Because of this I'll abstain from a want score.

Sakura chance prediction: 12.80%

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x5
I'm not sure Inti Creates owns Blaster Master. Sunsoft is surprisingly still around.
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
From what I read, Sunsoft licensed out the first Blaster Master game to Inti Creates to do the remake and I guess they got the license again to do the sequel. So I'm pretty sure that Sunsoft are still the copyright holder so Nintendo would have to go to them.
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
1,045
Location
ZE BATH
Eve is best girl, Melon girl is trash.

Chance: 1%

Let's be realistic here. this is one of the most unlikely characters here. Blaster Master released in Japan as Meta-fight, an obscure Famicom Game where the planet Sophia the 3rd is attacked by Goez the evil tyrant from outer Space, and the main hero Kane Gardner uses the Metal Attacker, an all-enconmpasing tank that gets **** done, to get rid of the alien scum.

Wait? You don't remember that plot? oh yeah the Localization team went nuts with this game, renaming it Blaster Master in western territories, changing the plot to a guy called Jason Frurdnick losing his Frog in the underground world (which happens to be located in his House's backyard) and finds a tank and somehow he is able to use it and goes after a frog.................

Yeah, it's more unique but it's far more silly.

Anyway, the game internationally was far more popular, so much so that it got a Novel from Worlds of Power, expanding the lore and introducing a character named Eve (yes, that Eve) and ended up being used for inspiration for the latter sequels such as Blasting Again. Most of these (Blaster Master 2 on the Genesis for instance) used the Blaster Master canon instead of the japanese Meta-fight one, but none of the sequels were as popular or successful as the first game.

It wasn't until 2017, with the release of Blaster Master Zero on 3DS and Switch that the series found some new steam again. Being a reboot of the franchise, the game is a remake of Blaster Master on the NES, but uses a lot of plot and lore details from it's japanese counterpart Metafight merging the two into one (turning Jason from a random High school kid into an scientist and researcher, and turning Eve into the descendant of the original hero from Meta-fight)

The game was extremely well received, so much so that it got a sequel two years later called Blaster Master Zero 2, this time allowing the development team, Inti Creates, use their creative muscles instead of relying on an already existing game's base.

So why am i putting him so low? Well. Blaster Master is very niche. Im pretty sure that in an alternate timeline, Blaster Master became the next Mega Man or Castlevania, a simple franchise that debuted in the NES and became a gaming icon everywhere appearing in almost every game system and garnering mulitple sequels on multiple systems...................but BM is not that. Instead, it was an NES game that became a cult classic in the west, got some mediocre sequels here and there, (some of them were North America exclusive to make matters worse) and only recently got a revival with two Download-Only games that didn't moved even a Million (admittedly, BMZ aren't the type of games that are super high budget, so they weren't flops at all)

So you have a niche Third Party character that was dead for almost a decade, lacks a strong fan support for Smash, and barely had a presence in Japan despite begin a japanese product by origin............yeah not looking good.

Want: 70%


Which is a shame. Blaster Master Zero 1 and 2 are great games, and make me wish the series didn't fall into obscurity. I can picture BMZ 1 and 2 beign the Mega Man 9 and 10 of this franchise, Retro Throwbacks for a franchise that has experimented with multiple entries across time, even though Blaster Master with luck got sequels in the first place.

I mean look. Jason uses Sophia, a ****ing tank that can shoot missiles, cling to and jump from walls, hover in the air, can shoot electricity from below, and so much more.

Usually im not into the whole "MUH UNIQUENESS" shtick, but this is a golden plate. I don't think i ever had this much fun playing as a tank in a video game, and i don't have to worry about losing the tank midway through the stage unlike Metal Slug, plus the Blaster Master Zero games have amazing music.

If nothing else, even if i usually prefer to stick First Parties or very important and Nintendo centric Guests, i would at least find Sophia a very special inclusoin, plus it could give some spotlight into this obscure series because it needs it, oh god does it need it.

By the way im only rating Sophia as playable here, Jason would just be riding it and be inside alongside Eve and Fred (the Frog) showing up in victory poses and taunts maybe, since i find the idea of Sophia AND Jason beign playable in a two-in-one character beign far too time-development consuming for Sakurai (and i know Steve is exactly that, characters like him only show up once in a Blue Moon) plus the idea of a playable NON-Final-Smash Tank is a novelty on its own.
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
265
Blaster Master
Chance: 2%
This series had more to it than I expected. It's a long running series that started, and still is, on Nintendo systems.
The first game, Blaster Master, was developed by Sunsoft and released in 1988 for the Nintendo Entertainment System. In the original japanese release, the game's name was Chou Wakusei Senki Metafight, and featured a different story to the western version. The game was a flop in Japan, but saw success overseas. Due to this, subsequent releases used the english title. The series spawned multiple sequels, most of them featuring on Nintendo systems.
In 2016, Inti Creates, the team that developed the Mega Man Zero and ZX series, acquired the IP, and released the reboot Blaster Master Zero in 2017. The game was a success, and was followed by Blaster Master Zero 2 in 2019. Both titles were originally Nintendo exclusives.

While the series has a long history on Nintendo systems, it's not the most prolific series nowadays. In the days of the NES however, Nintendo Power featured it as #5 on its top NES games list, so it definitely qualifies as a retro rep.
However, retro reps seems more like a Sakurai thing, and mostly relegated to base game. DLC is neither of those, so I doubt its gonna happen.


Want: 50%
I've played the demo of Blaster Master Zero, and it hooked me instantly, although it's still in my backlog unfortunately. Had a blast(er) playing the top-down sections, though I didn't play a lot of the metroidvania parts. I like metroidvanias, just didn't want too many "spoilers".
The character concept is also pretty interesting for a smash character, jumping in and out of the tank.

I should really just play the game already >_>


Predict Sakura: 18%

Nominations
Adol Christin x10
 
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BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
116
Abstaining today.

Noms:
Huh, so Echoes need to have support thread as well? Then I'll probably just...
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x5
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,047
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Do we really need to? We already rated her pretty recently on the fixed schedule, and nothing's changed for her circumstances, so I don't really see a point.
Lara Croft and Agumon were also rated recently on the fixed schedule but they have nominations again so if those were deemed ok then so is Reimu.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Lara Croft and Agumon were also rated recently on the fixed schedule but they have nominations again so if those were deemed ok then so is Reimu.
Fair point, though at least in Agumon's case, the continual return of the Smash 4 Namco costumes will have an effect on his rating. It presents a reason to rerate him so soon.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Sakura Shinguji from Sakura Wars.

Predict Zelda (Breath of the Wild), the incarnation of Zelda that appears in Breath of the Wild, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity, and the upcoming BotW sequel.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some music to get into the Sakura Wars mood:

 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Abstaining completely today since I'm also not familiar with Sakura Wars.

BotW Zelda chance prediction: 15.00%

Nominations:
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get a deluxe enhancement) x10 (using my extra noms)
 
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Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Oh, bit late for the Jason and Sophia rating? Well, I do seem to recall there being a rule for ratings within one hour or so of the day switch still being counted, so I'll just do one really quick.

A guy and a tank, I guess? I have no joke.

Chance: 3%

Based on what I've been able to gather from other people's ratings, this character would be no impossibility, but overall still pretty unlikely. As a franchise originating on the NES that has been able to stick around to the present day in some form, it has a certain amount of legacy to it, but I would say it has not made much of an impact. Realistically speaking, I think this series is just far too obscure to really have any shot of being a DLC character for Smash. While most of the DLC thus far has not been super high-profile stuff, I would argue that most of it has still been less niche than Blaster Master. So, I'm not exactly counting on seeing this happening.

Want: Abstain
Absolutely no familiarity with the series on my part. The most I can say is that I played the character a bit on that Super Mario Bros. Crossover game, but that's about it.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10.

Predicting Sakura to get around 13.46%.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
D.Va

Sakura Wars is a Sega franchise that consists of 6 main games and a handful of spin-offs. The genre is a unique combination of strategy with... dating sim VN. It's a series that has sold 4 million copies - which isn't great but hey, it's Japan only. It also spawned somewhat of a multimedia empire, with manga, anime shows and OVAs. And by all critical standards they're very well made games for the most part.

Thing is I don't think it's Smash caliber. Only two of the games were released outside Japan, the fifth and sixth games. The fifth one was the poorest selling title in the series, even in Japan, and the sixth one got middling reviews (and it doesn't appear like it's sold great in the West either). So, yeah, Dragon Quest this ain't. Which kinda kills its chances imo. We're talking about a series that, due to its very specific combination of genres, is very, very niche in appeal, and hasn't been very influential for those same reasons (I guess you could point at Valkyria Chronicles - which was made by many of the same people - but that's about it). Part of its appeal is steeped in nostalgia for the Saturn, a console that was successful in its home country but a bomb everywhere else. This is the epitome of a local phenomenon; say what you will about Puyo Puyo, or Mortal Kombat, or Touhou, or Halo, but those games have worldwide, if lopsided, audiences, and in some way or another changed their genres, and impacted the industry. Sakura Wars is just a very good series of games that most of the world has no reason to know or care about. I won't even pretend to want this in Smash, it hasn't earned it. But I'm not concerned because it's a Sega game, and the competition is just that much stronger. Yakuza, Puyo Puyo, Streets of Rage, Shin Megami Tensei. I'm not gonna get into comparisons, but I really don't see how Sakura Wars doesn't get absolutely trounced by these franchises.

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Noms: Scorpion x10
Zelda prediction: now this will be interesting. 23.51%
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Sakura Shinguji

Chance: 0.5% -
People give her way too much credit. Yes, her franchise is a multimedia juggernaut (to an extent) in Japan....and only in Japan. Most of her franchise isn't localized (and Sakurai wants to avoid Japan-only characters going forward), there's almost no push to make the franchise big in the West. A literal who, she also faces competition from other franchises within SEGA that ARE being pushed in the West, or are already popular in the West. A second Sonic rep, Puyo Puyo, Yakuza, and many more franchises that SEGA's been giving good attention to recently (so the attention Sakura Wars IS getting really isn't anything special). A second Sonic rep is always a welcome prospect that is guaranteed to make money in the West. Yakuza recently broke into mainstream success, so while its' lack of Nintendo presence hurts it, the worldwide appeal of the franchise is a promising prospect. While still niche, Puyo Puyo's Western fanbase is growing, and that would benefit way more from a Smash marketing push while still making more money. Let's not forget that the last Sakura Wars game on Nintendo systems was 15 years ago, with the newest game being PS4 exclusive. Meanwhile Sonic and Puyo are, since the 2000's, Nintendo mainstays.

Furthermore you never see Nintendo marketing Sakura Wars in any fashion (SEGA does, but that doesn't matter if Nintendo's calling the shots on the roster), and they're the ones picking the characters. If there's no confidence in promoting the brand at all, especially in Nintendo's biggest market, then what makes people think that Sakura will be a high-profile Smash DLC choice? Meanwhile, Sonic and Puyo? Marketing juggernauts. And if the franchise is such a HUGE overwhelming phenomenon, then why did it go 15 years without any games?

I know a lot of people are going to play the Dragon Quest card, but it's comparing apples to oranges. Dragon Quest, while it was never popular per say in the West, still had a decent presence, and people recognized the franchise, from the character designs to the iconic Slime. Sakura Wars just doesn't have this. The fact that there's so many abstentions further proves the point.

Overall she has A LOT of hurdles. Heavy inter-company competition, lack of a Western presence, no reason for Nintendo to advertise it, and likely aversion from Sakurai. Yes, she's become an extremely popular multimedia franchise in Japan, but that doesn't guarentee you a Smash slot. If that alone got you into the game, then we'd be buying challenger packs centered around Doraemon of all things.

Want: 0% - I have no connection to the franchise and little to no interest in the franchise's themes. Furthermore there's the element of competition. She'd be getting in over far bigger characters, including Tails and Eggman (two of my most wanted who are FAR more iconic and deserving of the slot). Let's not forget the vapid insistance of her likelihood by a lot of her fans, which is honestly something that's turned me away from even considering the franchise. A samurai character would be cool, I'll admit, but I think Takamaru would be better for that role (and unless he gets more games released overseas then he's not happening either). Plus Sakura Wars....hasn't had any real impact on gaming as a whole. It didn't kickstart a genre, it didn't influence other games, it's just a franchise that got popular in just its' home country and that's it. I just don't see the appeal.


Nominations:
Don-chan x10

Predictions:
Zelda (Breath of the Wild) - 15.95% - Expecting some mixed bag responses but also plenty of overrates due to Age of Calamity and recency bias.
 
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fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
20,913
Location
Scotland
gonna abstain dont really know it, ill have plenty to say tomorrow

nom chibi-robo x5

edit: ok was not the series i thought it was, still dont know it
 
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Perkilator

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
10,441
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Chance: 30%
I know Sakura Wars isn't exactly big compared to other SEGA franchises, but people are grossly underestimating the series' popularity. There is a legacy to this series, even if only a small one.

Want: 100%
I'd be okay with any SEGA character, but Sakura is one I want the most. Plus, I want her so more people can be aware of the series.

BOTW Zelda: 40%

Noms:
Crazy Dave x5
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Star Wars....erm I mean Sakura Wars

Abstain. I did a peek at Wikipedia and I looked at everyone else's posts and I'm just not interested in rating this character.

Prediction: BOTW Zelda - 17% (Expecting some polarizing scores, especially from yours truly as I take a small dip into despair)

Noms: Arthur x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x229
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x215
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x205
Concept: A Bravely Default character x205
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x205
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x196
Alex Mason x185

200 - 151

Adol Christin x170
Impa (Age of Calamity) x165
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x155

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Echo: Coco (Crash) x130
Red (Angry Birds) x125
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x115
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x104

100 - 51

[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x100
Miriam x100
Zero (Mega Man) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Riptor x85
Hajime Hinata x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x65
[Rerate] The Knight x65
Boss: Rayquaza x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
[Rerate] Monokuma x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Don-chan x55
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
Ghirahim x50
Carl Johnson x40
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30
Cynthia (Pokémon) x30
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x30
Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment) x25

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Qbby x15
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x15
Echo (Bowser) x15
Crazy Dave x15
Tetris x10
Billy & Jimmy Lee x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x5

A Bravely Default character and Arthur both brave past 200 noms, pass Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content and tie with Content from currently unreleased game for third place.

A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief and Adol Christin fight through the 150 nom barrier.

Magolor, Don-chan and Arle Nadja drum up over 50 noms each.

Cynthia, Scorpion, and The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return all get out of the under 25 club.

Joining the list today is a rerate of Reimu Hakurei, with 5 noms.
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Sakura Shinguji

Chance; 6%. I... guess I'm going to have to defend giving Sakura is obscenely high score of... 3/50 now, aren't I. Well, let's go.

Sakura Wars was an ambitious game series for its time. In 1994, having fully-animated cutscenes and voice-acting was already a new thing. It took two completely independent genres, Visual Novels/Dating Sims and turn-based JRPGs, and put them together to make what SEGA termed a "dramatic adventure" (a term which is useless at actually describing what the game plays like). It's "Live & Interactive Picture System" (i.e., LIPS, a real mature name, I know) was the first timed choice dialogue system in gaming history. Its sequels were the first games ever to read save files from other games, allowing you to continue your relationships from entry to entry.

And only now did I realize how much this franchise sounds like early 90s harem anime version of Mass Effect... Huh.


A lot of these are things that are common now. One could say they would inevitably have happened eventually and Sakura Wars just happened to be in the position to do them first. However, I don't think we can claim it had no influence on the industry outside of Japan, even when its only been localized with its most recent entries. I think its most obvious influence is on the game franchise that I'm sure everyone here loves: Fire Emblem Awakening went more dating-centric, when Sakura Wars in the 90s was basically pitched as "Fire Emblem with dating and anime cutscenes." It was also the success of Persona 4, another visual-novel/JRPG hybrid (i.e, the combination Sakura Wars mainstreamed in Japan) that pushed SEGA to finally start localizing the darn things.

Sakura was is also fairly successful as a multimedia franchise as others have noted: we've got some OVAs, some animes, some manga, and it'll soon be getting the obligatory gacha game. It's also no surprise that a franchise about a military troupe that doubles as a theatre troupe got stage plays and musicals, but I will say that it having 25 of them is... more then I would have expected, even knowing that stage play adaptations of video games aren't uncommon in Japan.

And... frankly, I think that already is more then enough to have a chance in Smash?

So, Sakura is in my dark horse camp. This isn't Dragon Quest by any means; this a just a random Japanese-centric IP that did some specifically unique things and things could happen to line up for it to make it in. Her main competition is obvious: SEGA has plenty of other franchises that are more mainstream worldwide, while Sakura Wars as an IP is just starting to be pushed more in the west. Even with some vague statements that could imply a Nintendo Switch port of the newest game, Nintendo doesn't have much reason to pick Sakura Wars in particular, as its legacy on JRPGs, while present, isn't quite as impressive as, say, Puyo on puzzle games.... though I could totally see a Mii Costume happening if we do get another SEGA rep.

Want: 95%. So, I bought Sakura Wars (the new one) on a whim because it was on sale. I went in with low expectations and was, on the whole, really impressed? There was a lot of trope-y moments and Sakura was the only character to get an actual complete story arc, but it was campy in all the right ways and the story was over-the-top enough that I turned my brain off, so the few emotional moments it had absolutely shattered me as I was not prepared for them. So, yeah, I'd be more then sastified with Sakura Wars in Smash. Partly just for the music, which is all super good. Ideally they'd localize the rest of the games first/alongside it though....

I leave you all with the video mocking the LIPS system SEGA actually paid ProZD to make.


Nominations: Jill Stingray Costume x 10
Predictions: 25% for Zelda
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Sakura Shinguji

Chances: 10%

As a Reimu suporter, I obviously see similarities between her and Reimu, as both come from series with anime-ish artstyle that are extremly popular in Japan, yet did not get any of the games translated for a very long time, and so are less popular here in the west, while still having a big legacy and dating back to around the same time as Pokemon. Yeah, I obverse multiple similarities here, though I also still see some differences, with a big one being that she's owned by Sega instead of being an indie, which can be seen as a god thing to have, htough it also puts her in direct competition with other Sega characters, and also Atlus characters, which include the even more popular Arle Nadja, the more hisotric characters from Shin Megami Tensei, the also very popular Kiryu from Yakuza, and I think that's all the Sega characters who have a chance to get in this fighter pass. So yeah, she has a bit of competition, and I think that she has the worst chances out of all of them, though that still gives her 10% (I don't think that other Sega characters have a chance, in case you were wondering). While it's not very high, it's still an alright percent by my standard of chance rating, I guess. So yeah, Sakura is very popular in Japan though not all that popular in the west, has competition from the company that owns her, and also doesn't have too much of a push to get in Smash. She would be a surprising pick, though I can still see why she would get in.

Want: 55%

I haven't played Sakura Wars yet, but I like her. Some of the clips of the anime adaptation I saw on YouTube have her be an alrigt character, and I also like her design a lot, though that may be a lot because of how much I like the "standard" anime style that it has. Also she pilots a mechs, which is cool, and could be very fun to have in Smash. Really I see nothing wrong with havnig her in, and I would probably support her a bit if I played her game of origin, but the thing is that I haven't, so yeah. She's a cool character from a series with a cool concept, I'll play her game eventualy.

Predictions

BotW2 Zelda: 31.4%

Nominations

Cynthia x10
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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Sakura. Not to be confused with Sakura Haruno............or Sakura Kinomoto.............or Sakura Kasugano.............or all the other games with "Sakura" on it.

Chance: 1%


I could have made wall of text, but DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire took the words right out of my mouth in every single way. Both in Chance and want.

If there's anything else i want to add....................we should stop using "MUH JAPAN" as an excuse for Niche Japanese characters. Smash is now a worldwide phenomenon. FE got localized after Melee, we got Little Mac in 4 who was SPECIFICALLY from a franchise meant to appeal to American Audiences. Western made characters like Dark Samus, Banjo and King K Rool are part of the roster. Ridley from Metroid was the Newcomer highlight from E3 when Ultimate was revealed, and Metroid sells like crap in Japan. and also we just got recently the star of the best selling game in the world, and it wasn't made in Japan.

Smash is always gonna be japan-centric to an extent, but Sakura, like Reimu (i really should have just given her a 1%) is a character i can't see happen now. We are likely gonna get western characters like Crash before we get her. "MUH UNPOPULARITY IN JAPAN" be damned, at least they get localized to there, which i can't say for the likes of Sakura. It says something when the most well known game of Sakura's Western appereance before the PS4 was Project X Zone, you know there's a problem here (and don't you dare go with the "MARTH AND ROY IN MELEE" excsue, that was a very difference scenario that happened over a DECADE ago, and it will likely never happen again)

Most of her games do not appeal to western audiences, so much so that most of them don't even got localized outside of the recent PS4 that will likely not come to Switch anytime soon. I could go on and on but again, Drif's post is all you need to read to see where i stand. It's one thing to be unappealing to a certain region, but to be unaccessible? no no, that is a big no no in Sakurai's recent roster choices.

Want: 0%


No thanks. Again, Drift took the words right out of my mouth. Better Sega reps out there, Takamaru is a better choice for our token Samurai, her fanbase has rabid members whose reasoning for her being likely are absurd, etc etc.

Bleugh.


Predictions:

Zelda's long hair is better: 34.69% a lot of overrating due to AoC and BotW 2 no doubt.
 

BowserKing

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Sakura

Chance: 10%. We have a lot of Sega characters that could have a chance to appear in the game, with Sakura being one of them. Also this franchise is more favourable in the east, but then again we have been surprised before.

Want: 50%. Sakura could be a fun character to play as and I can see her in a free for all with the Sega reps. But since I don’t know too much about that franchise, I think Sakura would be a decent choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Prediction: Zelda (Breath of the Wild): 15%

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon
 

Perkilator

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I don't mean to drag another member into this, but I feel like this was something that needs to be brought upon this thread:
Some of the replies to that thread are frustratingly ignorant lol

There’s a lot of misinformation likely stemming from people just skimming the series Wikipedia page, and a lot of people are seeming to downplay the overall impact Sakura Wars had on other genres where in it’s case it transcends it being Japan-exclusive, series like Persona and Mass Effect probably wouldn’t have even existed or been in their current forms if not for Sakura Wars

I would engage more in that thread about this matter but honestly I’ve kind grown tired with Smash arguments and knowing some of the people in there it may not end well, some people just need to do better research lol
 

Jomosensual

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I don't mean to drag another member into this, but I feel like this was something that needs to be brought upon this thread:
Someone in the home thread getting pissed because other people don't think their character has a shot? Well I never. Might be a first in RTC history really

EDIT: Ok that came off worse than I intended it to. Point being is that this is basically a daily occurrence when we rate peoples characters low.
 
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NintenZ

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Someone in the home thread getting pissed because other people don't think their character has a shot? Well I never. Might be a first in RTC history really

EDIT: Ok that came off worse than I intended it to. Point being is that this is basically a daily occurrence when we rate peoples characters low.
I wasn't really pissed, I just felt some of the replies weren't really well-informed enough is all and I really just wanted to voice that in a separate thread without getting involved with any sort of drama is all

Nothing personal
 
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Phoenix Douchebag

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I don't mean to drag another member into this, but I feel like this was something that needs to be brought upon this thread:
I want to be nice here...........but i don't see how this helps Sakura in the slightlest...

It's hard for people to know and care for a series that was japan exclsusive for literally 4 games in a row. It only takes just a quick search to realize that only the 5th game and the recent Reboot got localized (apparently SOME Sakura games also got locazlied in Russia.............just Russia) and no getting the adaptations localized don't really help her chances in the slightlest. When your most notable role in the rest of the world is beign one of the Project X Zone characters, and almost a literal anime character due to your animated adaptations (because that's the only point of reference the american and eurpoean and latin american audiences will be mostly given), a lot of people aren't gonna talk about you when it comes to beign a Smash contender. I mean i don't think people would entertain the idea of a CV character in Smash if the only things the rest of the world got only 1 or 2 games and the Netflix adaptation. and don't go "MUH FIRE EMBLEM" or "MUH LUCAS", one stopped beign Japan exclusive after Melee Released and the other got in because Sakurai couldn't be arsed to see if Mother 3 was gonna be localized, plus these 2 examples are exception to the norm and happened over a decade ago. (and also are first party)

I will concide that Sakura Wars is among the most notable examples of a Dating Sim and a very early example of a Action/Dating Sim Hybrid. But even if it was a pioneer in a genre, that does not garantee a spot in Smash. Akira is one of the pioneers of 3D Fighers, and all he got was an AT and a Mii Costume, and Heihachi, a character that popularized it on Consoles, only got a Mii Costume. What about Pitfall Harry who is probably one of the earliest platformers of its era?

Here's a western equivalent. Most people here, myself included do not think that Master Chief, Doomguy, or even B.J Blazkowicz are likely. Despite all of them beign absurdly influential. B.J Blazkowicz is the main hero of Wolfenstien 3D, a game that was HEAVILY influential for future First Person Shooters, and its designer John Romero would help with Doom, another game that further popularized the Genre, culminating with Master Chief whose game, Halo only made it super mainstream, beign of the first examples of a huge FPS on a console. Why do people rate them so low if their influence is massive? For the same reasons me and many others are rating Sakura so low. Nobody cares about Wolfenstein in Japan, and wasn't their games weren't released there for a while. Halo 3 was the first Halo game to be released in Japan and sold like crap. and i don't have to tell you that Doomguy scares the japanese. Why is Sakura except from this when the case could be made the she is not different from them?

In my eyes don't see any of these as likely due to their success not translating to other regions to the point of not even beign acessible there. Sakura, influential to a genre, is just not the most likely one out there. Compare this to Arle. She is popular in Japan as much as Sakura (up to the point that when Pushdustin made that "Smash DLC in Japan" poll, Arle showed up) her games got localized no longer reliying on Robotnik and Kirby to do the marketing so much so she crossed over with the now Second Best Selling game in the world, Tetris, and her games are Puzzle Genre games, a genre that she was influencial as well, and is also far more mainstream in its reach compare to dating-sims. (remember, Japan is JUST a country, compare that to multiple countries across the world from different countries, and suddenly, big in japan is not so big after all) and don't get me started on Yakuaza's Kiryu, who has become a phenomenon worldwide (Baka Mitai anyone?) before Sakura Wars could even get its feet onto Worldwide stores (the 5th game So Long My Love was localized....................but the US got the PS2 version and Europe got the Wii version so it was still half-assed, the PS4 game was when they finally got their act together)

Maybe in the future Sakura Wars could see a new high success like Fire Emblem. That game also had romancing elements starting with Awakening and that game happened to be the lucky one where they got popular, so i can see a a bright future for this franchise, but now? Too early to say, and at the same time, too late to influence Ultimate's roster in my eyes. (if Steve is any indication, never underestimate how long negotiations start, im not sayin every character takes half a ****ing decade, but it's clear plans for DLC were and are done far in advance, and by that time Sakura Wars was till very niche here, and mostly still is)
 

NintenZ

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For what it's worth I can understand where y'all are coming from.

It's predominantly a Japanese-centric franchise that only recently started to resurge and make it's way over to the West and as a result with most people on Smashboards being from the west it's easy for us to look past these things and have holes in our info due to the lack of apparent concrete info relating to it and it not being promenent in the places we're from. Our attachment and familiarity with these things also plays a role in how we make inferences.

However, this is why it's important we do more research on these things and listen to what other people have to say on them before making ill-informed statements, and this goes for anything, I saw this happen a lot before Hero was announced where people would write off the idea of a Dragon Quest rep either because they wanted someone like Sora more or because they weren't well-informed on the impact of Dragon Quest. Bubble arguments and echo chambers are a VERY dangerous trap we can fall into, so it's good to be mindful of these things when collecting information on things we aren't familiar with. Just wanted to preface that.

In the instance of Sakura Wars, this is a good video to watch if you want to be informed on it's history and impact:

I also recommend reading this blog post meant for educational purposes for information on Sakura Shinguji and her cultural impact in Japan as a character, it's a really good read especially if you're looking to learn more about Japanese cultural values: https://jp.learnoutlive.com/japanese-culture-sakura-shinguji/

I guess I can also contribute to the rating as well, have some music to listen to while I do it: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvKh0hEoFp5T-f6gow7YQBDcEMD3AcT7i

Chance: 50%

It really depends honestly, Nintendo has had a relationship with the series in the past (They distributed the Game Boy game and released a special Sakura Wars Game Boy model, this was before SEGA dropped out of the console business and predates Sonic Advance by a year making it the first game they entirely owned to be released on a Nintendo system. Plus there was a DS dungeon crawler called Dramatic Dungeon: Sakura Wars that was released back in 2008 but I'm unsure if Nintendo was as involved with it as the GB game), SEGA also has expressed interest in continuing the series after the 2019 game and has continued to push it with it getting a new mobile game quite soon and them expressing interest on bringing the rest of the series to more platforms. (On a side-note, I also just want to point out not all of the games are inaccessible overseas, the original games have been localized in Chinese and Russian, So Long My Love and 2019 were localized in English territories and South Korea, and all of the anime including the OVAs, TV series, film, and the new series are available worldwide and fully translated in English, so while not prominent overseas, it's not outright inaccessible) In addition the characters have continued to make appearances in various other games via crossovers, such as Star Ocean Anamnesis, Langrisser, Granblue Fantasy, and Phantasy Star Online 2 among others with the 2019 characters being the most recent characters to crossover to them. I personally think her inclusion depends on what SEGA's plans are for the future of her series and what Nintendo's stake in that relationship for the series is, so imo it's a coin flip. I do think a SEGA character is likely due to their current business strategy involving them wanting to bring their IPs to a larger audience in wake of their 60th anniversary and Sakura may be good for that since they have attempted for years to bring it to worldwide recognition (Sans the Sakura Wars World project and the ports of Sakura Wars PS2 and Thou Shalt Not Die which had to be put on ice because of the licensing issues regarding translation and importation costs at the time). I just want to quickly bring up, SEGA of America's marketing at launch was admittedly abysmal and it gave off the impression they sent it out to die over here, I fully acknowledge that lmao, but this would be more of a SEGA Japan decision which SOA wouldn't really have any stake in. And after launch they admittedly did improve with marketing it but it was most certainly a rocky start, not really relevant to my point though. I also personally want to judge her on her own merits and not her competition with other SEGA characters, I think it's more fair to judge her by herself (This really goes for any company, imo competition doesn't really exist it's more individualized on a case-by-case basis on what Nintendo or Sakurai find best). I also think that if she were to be included, Sakura Amamiya, the protagonist of the new game, would be included with her, whether it be as an alt, an Echo, idk, I just think SEGA would push to include her as well since they've been marketing her as a new face of the series with her getting a lot of merchandise recently and her overall being the more recent character. Really it depends on what Nintendo and SEGA have in mind for future marketing, and it also depends on if any Sakura Wars projects will be headed to the Switch, though with the staff's comments on the matter and SEGA's statement on multi-platform releases after the very successful release of Persona 4 Golden on PC, it's possible at the very least it could happen in the foreseeable future.

Want: 100%

This actually has a bit of a story. I admit, at first I was pretty skeptical of Sakura. For many years I was a pretty big supporter of fellow SEGA character Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo (And still am) and the thought of Sakura getting in before her quite frankly mortified me as I didn't really know as much about her series and was a huge Puyo Puyo fan lol. Come the end of November I started to actively predict Sakura since there were some interesting things pointing towards her I found around the time the Game Awards was going on (Don't really remember what they were at the time but ah well). It was actually the same feeling I felt for Terry Bogard over the summer of 2019, who eventually got in. Eventually I started looking more into the series for research purposes regarding Smash predictions, I became very interested at the series' rich history, interesting characters, fantastic music, and very unique gameplay. I decided I'd play the 2019 game when it released. When I played it in April I fell in love with the series. From Kohei Tanaka's beautiful score, the lush production values, interesting story with admittedly heart-wrenching moments, and the wonderful characters you really felt for. It was a really great time and throughout I thought of ways it could be included in Smash. Looking at some of the things Sakura could do from research I felt she could make for a really interesting character, we also don't really have a katana user and I felt she'd be a good fit for that. The fact that she isn't just a typical katana user, combining elemental properties with her moves, made her all the more interesting. Her rich history coming from a legacy SRPG/dating sim franchise thats' impact reaches even Western games despite it only being from Japan made me feel all the more reason why it could be a good inclusion. The music she would also bring is quite frankly ear-melting, Kohei Tanaka is a very famous Japanese composer who has done other projects you might know such as One Piece and Gravity Rush, seeing another legendary Japanese composer's songs joining the ranks of Smash would be really cool to see. Overall would be pretty on-board, quite the turnaround for me honestly.

I must say it was actually a lot more fun to do this than I expected! I hope I was able to be insightful with my stance on her!
98b6e066d61407bffa4abb60326e7277.gif

Nominations:
Any Xenoblade Character: x5
I want to be nice here...........but i don't see how this helps Sakura in the slightlest...

It's hard for people to know and care for a series that was japan exclsusive for literally 4 games in a row. It only takes just a quick search to realize that only the 5th game and the recent Reboot got localized (apparently SOME Sakura games also got locazlied in Russia.............just Russia) and no getting the adaptations localized don't really help her chances in the slightlest. When your most notable role in the rest of the world is beign one of the Project X Zone characters, and almost a literal anime character due to your animated adaptations (because that's the only point of reference the american and eurpoean and latin american audiences will be mostly given), a lot of people aren't gonna talk about you when it comes to beign a Smash contender. I mean i don't think people would entertain the idea of a CV character in Smash if the only things the rest of the world got only 1 or 2 games and the Netflix adaptation. and don't go "MUH FIRE EMBLEM" or "MUH LUCAS", one stopped beign Japan exclusive after Melee Released and the other got in because Sakurai couldn't be arsed to see if Mother 3 was gonna be localized, plus these 2 examples are exception to the norm and happened over a decade ago. (and also are first party)

I will concide that Sakura Wars is among the most notable examples of a Dating Sim and a very early example of a Action/Dating Sim Hybrid. But even if it was a pioneer in a genre, that does not garantee a spot in Smash. Akira is one of the pioneers of 3D Fighers, and all he got was an AT and a Mii Costume, and Heihachi, a character that popularized it on Consoles, only got a Mii Costume. What about Pitfall Harry who is probably one of the earliest platformers of its era?

Here's a western equivalent. Most people here, myself included do not think that Master Chief, Doomguy, or even B.J Blazkowicz are likely. Despite all of them beign absurdly influential. B.J Blazkowicz is the main hero of Wolfenstien 3D, a game that was HEAVILY influential for future First Person Shooters, and its designer John Romero would help with Doom, another game that further popularized the Genre, culminating with Master Chief whose game, Halo only made it super mainstream, beign of the first examples of a huge FPS on a console. Why do people rate them so low if their influence is massive? For the same reasons me and many others are rating Sakura so low. Nobody cares about Wolfenstein in Japan, and wasn't their games weren't released there for a while. Halo 3 was the first Halo game to be released in Japan and sold like crap. and i don't have to tell you that Doomguy scares the japanese. Why is Sakura except from this when the case could be made the she is not different from them?

In my eyes don't see any of these as likely due to their success not translating to other regions to the point of not even beign acessible there. Sakura, influential to a genre, is just not the most likely one out there. Compare this to Arle. She is popular in Japan as much as Sakura (up to the point that when Pushdustin made that "Smash DLC in Japan" poll, Arle showed up) her games got localized no longer reliying on Robotnik and Kirby to do the marketing so much so she crossed over with the now Second Best Selling game in the world, Tetris, and her games are Puzzle Genre games, a genre that she was influencial as well, and is also far more mainstream in its reach compare to dating-sims. (remember, Japan is JUST a country, compare that to multiple countries across the world from different countries, and suddenly, big in japan is not so big after all) and don't get me started on Yakuaza's Kiryu, who has become a phenomenon worldwide (Baka Mitai anyone?) before Sakura Wars could even get its feet onto Worldwide stores (the 5th game So Long My Love was localized....................but the US got the PS2 version and Europe got the Wii version so it was still half-assed, the PS4 game was when they finally got their act together)

Maybe in the future Sakura Wars could see a new high success like Fire Emblem. That game also had romancing elements starting with Awakening and that game happened to be the lucky one where they got popular, so i can see a a bright future for this franchise, but now? Too early to say, and at the same time, too late to influence Ultimate's roster in my eyes. (if Steve is any indication, never underestimate how long negotiations start, im not sayin every character takes half a ****ing decade, but it's clear plans for DLC were and are done far in advance, and by that time Sakura Wars was till very niche here, and mostly still is)
I appreciate you for being civil in this response Phoenix.

I think you actually said this really well and I can definitely understand where you're coming from, not only did you give some constructive points you also gave good acknowledgement and understanding of the subject-matter while also providing good arguments to back your perspective.

I will say, I do think Sakura and Doomslayer are very similar at opposite ends of the spectrum which has been something on my mind for awhile. Both are characters from games that are highly influential in their genre, went on hiatus and resurged with a reboot, and are legendary characters in their own countries, but in their opposite regions don't fare as well with people. It's pretty interesting to think how they're kind of equivalents of each other.

I agree this is a wait-and-see thing but I still wanted to contribute to this by providing some information relevant to it, hopefully I gave a good idea of my perspective. For me personally it's honestly really up to what Nintendo and SEGA have in mind in terms of long-term marketing. Not saying it's guaranteed of course, hell not even saying it's particularly likely lol, just that it's a possibility is all.

(I would like to correct however that both versions of So Long My Love made it over to North America at least but I don't know about PAL, I know this because So Long My Love is rather notorious for going up for high prices online which includes both versions of it, just wanted to correct that)
 
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GoodGrief741

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I don't mean to drag another member into this, but I feel like this was something that needs to be brought upon this thread:
Honestly while I get the reasoning behind this point, I disagree. I considered mentioning stuff like modern Fire Emblem shipping as a series potentially influenced by Sakura Wars, but it feels like a natural evolution of the support system and particularly of Genealogy of the Holy War, which predates Sakura Wars. And stuff like Mass Effect and other WRPGs and CRPGs obviously take more from the traditions of tabletop RPGs. At the end I don't see how there's a clear influence from Sakura Wars towards these modern tropes, rather than stemming from the dating sim genre in general.
 

NintenZ

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Honestly while I get the reasoning behind this point, I disagree. I considered mentioning stuff like modern Fire Emblem shipping as a series potentially influenced by Sakura Wars, but it feels like a natural evolution of the support system and particularly of Genealogy of the Holy War, which predates Sakura Wars. And stuff like Mass Effect and other WRPGs and CRPGs obviously take more from the traditions of tabletop RPGs. At the end I don't see how there's a clear influence from Sakura Wars towards these modern tropes, rather than stemming from the dating sim genre in general.
The retrospective I linked in my post honestly explains it better than I can about the games it influenced lmao, the influences become more clear when you better compare the two sort of side-by-side at least in the case of Mass Effect

Especially regarding the comparison between the dialogue tree and the LIPS system, and also the transferrable save data which affects elements of the game which was something that also originated in Sakura Wars
 
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Capybara Gaming

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...ya'll realize that she's literally SEGA's other crossover royalty, right? Along with Joker? She gets into literally just about every gacha and mecha game, not to mention being in tons of SEGA crossovers of her own.

I'm not terribly active in this thread, but uh... NintenZ NintenZ and Perkilator Perkilator as the thread owner for Sakura and (as far as I know) the longest-running champion for her inclusion, would you two mind doing me a favor and tagging me tomorrow before the day ends? I have to get to bed early for work tomorrow, but I need to put in my two cents.
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

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Abstaining. I want to try Sakura Wars but I haven't yet.

Noms: Rei-Edit: Hmm, actually... Jin Sakai x5
 
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NintenZ

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...ya'll realize that she's literally SEGA's other crossover royalty, right? Along with Joker? She gets into literally just about every gacha and mecha game, not to mention being in tons of SEGA crossovers of her own.

I'm not terribly active in this thread, but uh... NintenZ NintenZ and Perkilator Perkilator as the thread owner for Sakura and (as far as I know) the longest-running champion for her inclusion, would you two mind doing me a favor and tagging me tomorrow before the day ends? I have to get to bed early for work tomorrow, but I need to put in my two cents.
Oh yeah forgot to mention, behind Sonic and Joker she has the most crossover appearances of any SEGA character, which even surprised me when conducting research lmao

Also yeah I'll try tagging you in the thread tomorrow, looking forward to your thoughts!
 
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Lionfranky

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Sakura...

Chance: 6%

Others already covered what I was about to say. I only learned about her after Project X. Yeah... there are cases where characters got more famous from other games than their original games, but this girl has problem much worse from what I've seen. Just like Klona and Billy Hatcher, I see the same problem plaguing her. Say what you want about Halo, but at least all games are localized in Japan and Halo has Japanese anime, so it's not totally obscure there.

Want: 20%

I don't mind her, but I prefer Kiryu, Arle or another Sonic rep to her. I think she would be decent and unique, but others would bring more stuff to the table.

Nom: Neptune x 10
 
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