Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Mr. MR]

How do you get extra noms and how many does someone new like me have right now?

 

[PLANTMAN]

You know I’m just gonna make this quick

Waluigi:
Chance:nope lol
Want:uh no

Rex:
Chance:50% the other 50% is for fiora. We’re either getting one of these 2 as the 2nd xeno rep no one else or none at all
want: 100%

 

[chocolatejr9]

You know I’m just gonna make this quick

Waluigi:
Chance:nope lol
Want:uh no

Rex:
Chance:50% the other 50% is for fiora. We’re either getting one of these 2 as the 2nd xeno rep no one else or none at all
want: 100%

You're gonna need more than that, buddy.

 

[SharkLord]

How do you get extra noms and how many does someone new like me have right now?

Extra noms are generally awarded bey accurately predicting the general rating of a character before we get to them. Assuming it goes through, we may also get extra noms for putting in extra work (Tentatively five sentences) as to encourage discussion, but that isn't finalized yet. As of current, you have 10 extra noms, but only for today, since the next rating is apparently a surprise. Best use them while you still can.

 

[PLANTMAN]

You're gonna need more than that, buddy.

I don’t have much time to do a paragraph like I’m at my job rn

 

[Mr. MR]

Extra noms are generally awarded bey accurately predicting the general rating of a character before we get to them. Assuming it goes through, we may also get extra noms for putting in extra work (Tentatively five sentences) as to encourage discussion, but that isn't finalized yet. As of current, you have 10 extra noms, but only for today, since the next rating is apparently a surprise. Best use them while you still can.

Thanks I'll edit my post and use them now

 

[fogbadge]

TCT~Phantom

Dude, we practically have the same avatar. I changed mine to this last week but haven't really been to this thread in quite a while, so it escaped my notice until today lol.

i honestly thought you were the same user for a second

 

[KingofPhantoms]

i honestly thought you were the same user for a second

I guess it also helps that we both have "Phantom" in our usernames lol

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Wait, it's 15 noms day?

Noms: Amiya x15

 

[Sid-cada]

Rex

Chance - 50% - We have word that Rex was heavily considered but rejected because of him being too new for base roster. Now that DLC has come around, we have more time to work on him, right? Well, not necessarily, Sakurai and/or Nintendo could orient themselves on other games at the moment. Sakurai could also say "good enough" for his costume. But otherwise he's quite likely, probably the most likely of all first parties I would say. I think Sakurai knows it's basically now or never for him, so he has to leap on this chance now for him to get in. Given how he basically would get in the same way Min Min did, I say he's quite likely.

Want - 75% - Honestly, after being snubbed by 3 Houses, I'd welcome him. That's about all that I can say, though, I'm not familir with the series.


Waluigi

Chance - 1% - While I do think he might be popular enough to escape the Assist Trophy role, I don't think that's happening. After Spring Man was out of the running, we're back to Assist Trophies disconfirm. It's hard to say anything else, really, as it's that big of an obstacle.

Want - 50% - He could be fun. It's just that there are other Mario characters that I would prefer first, like Toad or Kamek.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X15

 

[Calamitas]

If I had a nickel every time someone claimed that Sakurai stated things like

1. He personally wants Rex
2. Rex was considered for base roster
3. Rex totally would have made it if it hadn't been for his timing

I'd probably have. . . Idk, at least enough money to buy Min Min's pass individually.

 

[Lyncario]

Cirno
Chance: 99.9999999%
Cirno's chance are extremly high for very good resons. First of all, she is Cirno, the strongest of them all! How could she not join Smash? Second, it's Cirno's day today, 09/09/2020, there's no way her chances are lower than what I give her. She's so popular that she got a day, so there's no reason that she doesn't get in Smash as Fighter number 9. Cirno is by far one of the likeliest, but also by far strongest character that could join Smash. So don't be a nineball and disagree with her chances, because they are the strongest, just like her.
Want: 99.9999999%
Cirno is not only the strongest, but also the coolest! Not only would she be a strong ice user. Plus, she would also have a moveset similar to her moveset in Hisoutensoku, which would be so strong! And she would bring Touhou lusic like her theme, which is the strongest theme from the series with the strongest music! There's no reason as to why I wouldn't want the strongest ice fairy of them all, after all.

Spoiler: Strong

Well, this was both unneceasary and a pain to type on mobile, but it was worth it. This is of course a joke rating if you had any question about it. Now that this is said, happy Cirno day everyone!

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Cirno
Chance: 99.9999999%
Cirno's chance are extremly high for very good resons. First of all, she is Cirno, the strongest of them all! How could she not join Smash? Second, it's Cirno's day today, 09/09/2020, there's no way her chances are lower than what I give her. She's so popular that she got a day, so there's no reason that she doesn't get in Smash as Fighter number 9. Cirno is by far one of the likeliest, but also by far strongest character that could join Smash. So don't be a nineball and disagree with her chances, because they are the strongest, just like her.
Want: 99.9999999%
Cirno is not only the strongest, but also the coolest! Not only would she be a strong ice user. Plus, she would also have a moveset similar to her moveset in Hisoutensoku, which would be so strong! And she would bring Touhou lusic like her theme, which is the strongest theme from the series with the strongest music! There's no reason as to why I wouldn't want the strongest ice fairy of them all, after all.

Spoiler: Strong

Well, this was both unneceasary and a pain to type on mobile, but it was worth it. This is of course a joke rating if you had any question about it. Now that this is said, happy Cirno day everyone!

It's not 2009/2010 anymore

 

[Lyncario]

It's not 2009/2010 anymore

I know and I don't care.

 

[fogbadge]

If I had a nickel every time someone claimed that Sakurai stated things like

1. He personally wants Rex
2. Rex was considered for base roster
3. Rex totally would have made it if it hadn't been for his timing

I'd probably have. . . Idk, at least enough money to buy Min Min's pass individually.

if i had a nickel for every time waluigi was bigger than toad in the mario games


id be annoyed cause we dont uses nickels here

 

[Calamitas]

if i had a nickel for every time waluigi was bigger than toad in the mario games


id be annoyed cause we dont uses nickels here

I don't see the problem. Waluigi is taller than Toad, after all.

 

[fogbadge]

I don't see the problem. Waluigi is taller than Toad, after all.

well considering how much you deliberately ignore when it comes to rex im not surprised

 

[Cutie Gwen]

well considering how much you deliberately ignore when it comes to rex im not surprised

I fail to see what a joke about the height of a short character and a tall character has to do with his Rex opinions tbh

 

[TraaP]

Rex

Chance - 50% To be candid, it could go either way and chiefly comes down to Nintendo: would they see Rex as lucrative? Evidently, Sakurai thought Rex would be an excellent addition to Smash Ultimate but he was thwarted by time. Hence Sakurai incorporated a lot of XC2 content- mii costumes, spirits, songs. However, I believe Min Min’s addition bolsters Rex’s chances, as initially I thought that Rex would only be added if he was the 1st fighter in FP2, and after Min Min’s announcement, I fretted that Nintendo would not choose both Arms and XC to receive a newcomer. Albeit, now I believe it is likely that they have chosen both to add, as Rex and Springman were highly speculated - and fan’s front runners with Decidueye for relevant new games representatives. However, they never came to fruition, so it seems that Nintendo is leaning towards a “cheaper” pass (so to put it), it seems very likely to expect at least 2-3 1st party characters; which have been on a lot of fan wish lists for all of 2018 and 2019, e.g. Rex, Arms.

Want - 100% Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is phenomenal, albeit I have yet to finish the last chapter. I just wish they would give us an abundance of XCX’s songs alongside him.

Waluigi

Chance - 1% In a battle of him vs Geno, it’s conspicuous who would be selected (hint: it’s the one with less representation in this game). I believe that we are only going to receive 1 Mario rep this pass - and it’s immensely unlikely we’ll receive that as we have had Daisy & Plant added this game.

Want - 0% I would like more fighters from unrepresented/underrepresented games/franchises. His move set does have great potential, but I dislike Wario’s in Smash and feel like these two would feel similar.

Kind of ranted about Rex, oh well.

Nominations: Tomoya Okazaki x15

 

[fogbadge]

I fail to see what a joke about the height of a short character and a tall character has to do with his Rex opinions tbh

don’t take digs at toad

 

[YoshiandToad]

don’t take digs at toad

That's a pretty harmless dig at Toad. He is short. As he should be.

Tall Toad, on the other hand, is far more an eldrich horror. Don't make me bring out the pic.

 

[fogbadge]

That's a pretty harmless dig at Toad. He is short. As he should be.

Tall Toad, on the other hand, is far more an eldrich horror. Don't make me bring out the pic.

cant be any worse than that sailor wario from a few years ago

 

[Heoj]

Not sure when this ends so imma do this fast.

Waluigi
Chance: 0%
I just dont personally see it happening at all, i dont see any assist trophy upgrades happening and if we get another mario character i think itll be geno.

Want:0%
I dont hate waluigi, i just have no desire to see him playable in smash. It would be neat to see waluigi in more non-smash titles tho, like mainline mario and warioware. I fell like if waluigi got in, i would just be sad and salty geno didn't get in, then id get over it and accept hes in, i may laugh and enjoy waluigi for a few minutes, but it wouldn't last long and unless he happens to have a super crazy fun moveset hes gonna end up like piranha plant for me.

Rex
Chance:55%
Rex is looking pretty good and theres not too much going against him, tho whether or not his mii costume increases or decreases his chances really depends on your own opinion. Rex definitely seems like a character Nintendo would want, but well have to wait and see. Personally i think if rex is in, he would probably come earlier and not later.

Want:60%
Rex is pretty cool, i havent played a xenoblade game but ive been wanting to for a while now. I hope if rex got in hed also have pyra with him, and maybe mythra, tho im not sure exactly how that would work since i havent played xenoblade.

 

[Opossum]

I don't know how someone can dismiss Waluigi as a filler character and then sing the praises of Toad but you do you.

 

[SharkLord]

It's not 2009/2010 anymore

It will always be 2009/2010 so long as we will it to be.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

It will always be 2009/2010 so long as we will it to be.

To be fair, if we're going back to the Brawl days then it could be a good thing xP

 

[YoshiandToad]

I don't know how someone can dismiss Waluigi as a filler character and then sing the praises of Toad but you do you.

I don't think that's entirely fair either.

Toad's like the third most playable character in Super Mario after the titular Mario Brothers and has like three games that he's the star of rather than just an additional playable option.

I definitely don't agree with Waluigi being put down for no reason, but c'mon Opossum I know you know Toad isn't just filler.

Anyway, this is all very off topic, when is day 500 planned for now?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think that's entirely fair either.

Toad's like the third most playable character in Super Mario after the titular Mario Brothers and has like three games that he's the star of rather than just an additional playable option.

I definitely don't agree with Waluigi being put down for no reason, but c'mon Opossum I know you know Toad isn't just filler.

Anyway, this is all very off topic, when is day 500 planned for now?

I think that's Opossum's point, Toad was playable because they needed a fourth playable character so they pulled a random Toad and called it a day, which makes "Waluigi, an actual character with a personality rather than a generic specimen of an entire species, is a filler character" incredibly hypocritical

 

[YoshiandToad]

I think that's Opossum's point, Toad was playable because they needed a fourth playable character so they pulled a random Toad and called it a day, which makes "Waluigi, an actual character with a personality rather than a generic specimen of an entire species, is a filler character" incredibly hypocritical

Not so much aimed at you here Gwen, but this is a good as any time for me to get this one off my chest since it pertains to today's discussion:

The entire "filler" argument for Mario as a series has always struck me as a stupid argument to gatekeep particular characters.

Toad was made to be player three or four in the platformers? Sure, why not?
Waluigi was made to be Wario's tennis partner? Okay fine...

Luigi started life as a recolour of Mario. A green Mario was picked and they called it a day there too. He didn't get any real defined personality until the Gamecube era which was 18 years after his debut. He didn't get much physical alteration until long after debut too.
Now everyone loves him. But he's by definition a filler character.

Even Mario, Pauline and Donkey Kong were only filling in for Popeye, Olive Oyl and Bluto in the Original Donkey Kong since Nintendo didn't get the rights.
The world's most famous video game character? Started life as complete filler.

I feel like a lot of the Mario-verse started life as filler for somebody else or a particular position, and that's why this argument I see repeatedly against the likes of Waluigi and Toad irks me so much. It's just stupid.

 

[SharkLord]

If a filler character sticks around for so long they start to become rooted in their spot, are they still filler? Or do they become a mainstay?

 

[Perkilator]

Can we please move on?

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Can we please move on?

Agreed, no offense to anyone but this fixed schedule is really dragging on. Especially since it's finally almost done after two and a half months and there's a day coming up that most people likely want to just get through unscathed.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Guys, I was not a fan of this rerate schedule either, but remember that TCTPhantom made it crystal clear not to complain about it. I am just setting a friendly reminder before some of you get punished by Monokuma TCTPhantom.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Guys, I was not a fan of this rerate schedule either, but remember that TCTPhantom made it crystal clear not to complain about it. I am just setting a friendly reminder before some of you get punished by Monokuma TCTPhantom.

I am aware of that (and I very much apologize if I sounded rude earlier) and I appreciate what TCT does for all of us! I just wanted to share some small criticisms and mention why people are starting to feel antsy. But overall, I think someone else should be given the authority to change the day in TCT's absence, since it keeps things moving forward while at the same time takes a lot of pressure off of TCT, especially given his current situation.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I find it funny that Rex and Waluigi haters come out of the woodworks to bash their respective hated character whenever they're here.

Petty is a way.

Like, there's giving an honest opinion, and then there's only appearing once in a blue moon to **** on stuff.

Fittingly enough, these two are on the same day.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Guys, I was not a fan of this rerate schedule either, but remember that TCTPhantom made it crystal clear not to complain about it. I am just setting a friendly reminder before some of you get punished by Monokuma TCTPhantom.

My covers been blown.

In all seriousness, I was going to end the day tonight, but after we had the discussion on changing the abstain rules I wanted to let it go a bit longer just to see if it would be on the docket for tomorrow. So far it seems people are in favor but I wanted to let more people weigh in. I know the fixed schedule is controversial, but it was not when it launched, given that exactly no one messaged me at the time when I asked for feedback. Right now I want to make sure that the next big change, in this case, a potential rules change, doesn’t blindside people completely.

So to repeat the change, 10 noms for a paragraph, 5 for abstain. Other potential rules changes for abstaining?

As for the Fixed Schedule complaining stuff, the main reason I stepped id because it was getting very off topic with how frequent it was happening. It didn’t help that the complaints happened well after the week of time I have to let people make amendments or voice grievances. Heck, part of why I am bringing up the rule change potentially now is because I want people to voice their opinions on it now and not get angry.

Day will end tomorrow morning. 9 am est. Honestly without it we were gonna end it tonight but I want to make sure we get as much feedback on a potential rule change as possible.

I am aware of that (and I very much apologize if I sounded rude earlier) and I appreciate what TCT does for all of us! I just wanted to share some small criticisms and mention why people are starting to feel antsy. But overall, I think someone else should be given the authority to change the day in TCT's absence, since it keeps things moving forward while at the same time takes a lot of pressure off of TCT, especially given his current situation.

The other RTC staff generally have the ability to change the day. We just let it run a bit due to the potential rule change. It is something that went into effect later than I would have hoped in no small part due to hectic irl stuff, but it is a framework going forward.

 

[SharkLord]

My covers been blown.

In all seriousness, I was going to end the day tonight, but after we had the discussion on changing the abstain rules I wanted to let it go a bit longer just to see if it would be on the docket for tomorrow. So far it seems people are in favor but I wanted to let more people weigh in. I know the fixed schedule is controversial, but it was not when it launched, given that exactly no one messaged me at the time when I asked for feedback. Right now I want to make sure that the next big change, in this case, a potential rules change, doesn’t blindside people completely.

So to repeat the change, 10 noms for a paragraph, 5 for abstain. Other potential rules changes for abstaining?

As for the Fixed Schedule complaining stuff, the main reason I stepped id because it was getting very off topic with how frequent it was happening. It didn’t help that the complaints happened well after the week of time I have to let people make amendments or voice grievances. Heck, part of why I am bringing up the rule change potentially now is because I want people to voice their opinions on it now and not get angry.

Day will end tomorrow morning. 9 am est. Honestly without it we were gonna end it tonight but I want to make sure we get as much feedback on a potential rule change as possible.




The other RTC staff generally have the ability to change the day. We just let it run a bit due to the potential rule change. It is something that went into effect later than I would have hoped in no small part due to hectic irl stuff, but it is a framework going forward.

Ah, I see. So basically:
Two sentences are still required for 5 noms, so that people don't just leave a single sentence.
Abstaining still gives 5 noms, so that people can talk about something they're interested in in case the current topics aren't.
Writing a full paragraph gives ten noms, as to encourage more discussion.
That's all there is going forward, or is there a bit more that I missed?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I find it funny that Rex and Waluigi haters come out of the woodworks to bash their respective hated character whenever they're here.

Petty is a way.

Like, there's giving an honest opinion, and then there's only appearing once in a blue moon to **** on stuff.

Fittingly enough, these two are on the same day.

I mean, the opposite's also true as whenever a character gets rated, it gets posted on their support threads, which can lead to people going in here to praise their characters and how they're super likely or argue with people giving scores that are deemed too low. After the day ends, the leave the thread until the next time they see it linked in support threads.

That, and maybe I struggle with paying attention but I've only seen like 1 person do that for this day

 

[Glaciacott]

Well, as long as the day isn't closing yet I suppose I'll throw in some ratings

Rex
Chance - 40%
I'm going by randomly made up arbitrary percentages for Xenoblade content:
40% chance that Rex gets in
30% chance that we get Elma instead
20% chance that it's a second Xenoblade 1 character (eg. Fiora, Melia, Rikki, etc.)
10% chance we horrifically don't get a xenoblade character

Given the Arms situation I can see characters going to Switch-present popular series and Xenoblade easily falls within that category. And for this series Rex is the next logical addition in a reality where Xenoblade 2 got so much attention, and is the clear protagonist of his game, AND is reasonably popular as well.

Want - 20%
I don't particularly fancy the idea of us getting Rex, in huge part because Xenoblade Chronicles X was a game I liked far far more, and as a result Elma would be my dream pick.
To go beyond that, I also found Rex to be particularly uninteresting compared to other characters in his game. I would love to see pretty much anyone else, like Nia, Morag, Tora/Poppi, Zeke/Pandoria... the party in that game isn't lacking in personality and Rex just doesn't carry it for me. I would be down for Mythra getting in through Rex though, and Pyra is also alright in her own way.
I do keep some want because I definitely want more Xenoblade content in Smash, and Rex presents the possibility of tunes like Mor Ardain or Tantal which I love. Mor Ardain fits so well in Smash that it's stupid to me that it's not currently a song in the game.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Chance - 75%
I do not understand why so many people find this unlikely.
Easily one of the most notorious stories to come out of Ultimate is about Waluigi not becoming playable. And we're talking about random non-Smash sites talking about it and the general, common folk knowing that Waluigi didn't get into Smash.
It's the world's easiest publicity stunt to make Waluigi a DLC fighter and watch the money and drama pour in. Considering also how prevalent the Mario cast is in all Nintendo affairs and how well-known Waluigi is, it just makes too much sense. This is a character that everyone will know about, unlike Geno who is strictly a choice based on a more cult following from within the smash community. Not to say Geno is unlikely, but mostly to point out that whatever Geno has going for him is far more the case for Waluigi, and with the added bonus that you don't depend on another company's permission.
Easy character to develop, easy to license, easy to capitalize from, and honestly a great way to close the pass by adding a character that missed the mark so many times before.

Want - 50%
I'm super indifferent to whether he makes it in or not, but in general I'm positive towards him. In a universe where Daisy and Piranha Plant are already playable he makes a ton of sense and I really look forward to how the world would react to this bit of news.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Other potential rules changes for abstaining?

I think the bonus noms are a good decision! It provides a good incentive to give a character a chance and encourages more participation.
Out of curiosity, though, whenever I abstain I usually do a mini write-up alongside it that doesn't have ratings but still has my thoughts on a character and their chances in a more compressed format. It usually is at least a paragraph long, so would that count for the bonus noms or for the standard 5? Even if I abstain I still like to give each concept the attention it deserves, even if I don't always have much to say/much energy for a full multi-paragraph write-up like I usually do.