Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 487: Neku (The World Ends With You) and Agnès (Bravely Default)

RetrogamerMax

Smash Hero
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RetrogamerMax2
Krystal

Chance 25%:

While I really want Krystal badly, I don't see her making it in into this game and it's not because she is an Assist Trophy, but because of other bigger popular characters that are Assist Trophies like Isaac or Waluigi will more than likely getting chosen over her.

It sucks for me but this is the reality of it. Plus She hasn't been in a Star Fox game since Command so that could be another point against her chances.

Want 100%:

Krystal is my 2nd most wanted character and has been in my top 5 most wanted list for years. I absolutely want her in as I love the character, her personality, and design. She is my favorite Star Fox character.

I think she would be unique especially for a Star Fox character as a vixen that has a magical staff with telepathy.

Shadow:

Chance 10%:

I don't see him getting promoted either because we already got a Sega/Atlus character in the last Pass with Joker and he come with Sonic Mii costumes. I think it's safe to say Sonic nor any other 3rd party already in Smash is getting another newcomer in this game.

I would love to be wrong, but secondary unique 3rd party newcomers might never become a thing.

Want 40%:

I don't dislike Shadow, but there are other Sonic characters I like much more than him like Knuckles, Dr. Eggman, Metal Sonic, and Tails.

And while I wouldn't be too excited for Shadow's inclusion, him getting in as a unique character would break the secondary unique 3rd party barrier and I would be thrilled about that.

Bomberman:

Chance 50%:

I believe besides Waluigi and Isaac, Bomberman is the most likely contender to get promoted from the snow globe. He was Hudson Soft's mascot for pete sake. He certainly deserves to get in as Hudson Soft and the Bomberman franchise was very impactful for multiplayer games in the industry.

I'm not sure if he will get in, but I hope he does because after he does everyone can focus on my boi Goemon next.

Want 70%:

I've played Bomberman Arcade on the Xbox 360 and Super Bomberman R on the Switch and I really like those games they're pretty fun.

Bomberman would be a fun and unique character in Smash as his moveset would involve mostly around different types of bombs which we really haven't seen character who's moveset almost completely involves around explosives before.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
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TCT~Phantom
I wonder how many of these characters actually have support threads. I have no clue who the likes of Nate Adams and Alex Mason are so I think it's likely they atleast don't have one.

I don't really get that rule btw. Sounds like it's for preventing joke noms such as Dr Goomba tower from being but a vast majority of concepts being nommed are completely sincere so it just sounds really restrictive.

If something completely idiotic is being nommed then simply not counting them sounds way better than purging the actual normal concepts along with them.
1. it’s a rule for characters, concepts are kosher.

2. Someone should put the effort into a thread if they want others to spend time talking about them.

3. the noms purge is not just for that reason. Look at all the abandoned characters and concepts under 50.

4. I have given a good portion of time for anyone to save anything they are nomming. Throwing together a support thread or pushing something over the threshold by day 500 shouldn’t be too hard.
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
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Feb 12, 2013
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Krystal Chance: 15%

Besides being an Assist Trophy, I think her popularity has died down in recent years. She used to be one of the big ones in the Brawl and Smash 4 days, and even in certain times of Ultimate's speculation days, but at this point even Skull Kid seems to have more support than she does.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Want: 60%

Never played a Star Fox game, used to want her for more arbitrary reasons (felt the Star Fox cast would be more complete with her addition, she was really popular, etc), she'd still be cool even though she's not among any of my most wanted anymore.

Shadow Chance: 15%

Call it a hunch. I'm just not seeing much reason as to why he'd get in besides maybe getting promoted as an Echo. He's popular but demand for him as a newcomer doesn't seem to be that high, and I'm not even sure if him being an Echo (which are easy to program since they're built off of other pre-existing fighters) would do him justice, either.

Want: 30%

No strong desire for this one.

Abstaining from Bomberman.

Nominations: Tetra x5
 

AlphaSSB

Bring Back Star Fox
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Coming back to support my most wanted.

Krystal
Chance: 1% - Nothing is impossible, but that doesn't mean likely. She's still got a strong support base, as she wouldn't have made it as an AT without a good showing in the Ballot, but that's really all there is at the moment. Unless there's a new Star Fox game in the works with her in it, but that's just wishful thinking.

Want: 100% - Most wanted newcomer since Brawl.

Shadow/Bomberman
Chance: 1% - Rating them together because I feel the same way about both. They wouldn't be ATs without their support base, but that's all they really have going for them. Just don't see a promotion happening.

Want: 1% - I wouldn't hate to see either, but I'm not rooting for either of them.
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
293
I HAVE A STAFF. IM UNIQUE.

Chance: 1%
Krystal has lost almost all of her benefits. While heavily popular in Brawl's days and early Smash 4 days, she was always at Wolf's shadow, and this was more apparent as soon as Wolf was cut.

Gonna quote Chronobound on this:
Krystal had actually held on to much more of her support than Geno, Midna, and Lyn did after Brawl's release (Geno did not start to rebound as a character request until his Mii costume was unveiled). Even up until the end of the ballot, I would say she was still within the Top 15 most wanted characters within the Western side to the Smash fanbase.

Krystal's depreciation of requests was due to three factors primarily:

1. Krystal's last appearance in her own series being in 2006. This limits new exposure of the character, and also gives a perception that the character is "irrelevant". It is usually an uphill battle to argue for character inclusion when a character has been gone from their own series for a very long time (simply one of the things that made Dark Samus's inclusion so miraculous, especially considering she was never a mega star in terms of requests at any point).

2. Star Fox basically falling in prominence after the mid-2000's. The only three major things done with Star Fox during the 2010's was the release of Star Fox 64 3D, the release of Star Fox Zero (a game with a mixed reception that was released on the failing Wii U), and the official release of Star Fox 2. All three of these notable developments for the series lacked an appearance for Krystal as well.

3. The "we need more females" bandwagon finding other female characters to gravitate towards. During pre-Brawl, she might have been the most prominent female Nintendo character (outside of Dixie Kong and Daisy) that was not a one-shot, not yet part of the roster. As more female characters were added to the roster during Smash 4, and the roster gradually opened up to more and more third-parties, the unique attribute that Krystal had (being a non-one shot female Nintendo character) started to look less special, especially on the back of the Star Fox series losing prominence.

I actually consider the inclusion of her as an Assist Trophy in Ultimate an impressive victory for the character. Ultimate in general had very few non-echo newcomers for its base roster in general, and among those few they did choose, they were the best of the best (Inkling and Isabelle being perhaps the two biggest Nintendo characters created during the 2010's, Ridley and K. Rool both being among the most highly requested characters in general for over a decade, and Castlevania being a legendary franchise in general with deep roots with Nintendo consoles, and Incineroar was included as part of a placeholder Sakurai is mandated to do in regards to Pokemon for every Smash title since at least Brawl).

She likely did quite well on the ballot to be able to even get that consolation prize. A lot of this is credit to Shorts who did an admirable job of holding the Krystal fanbase together after Brawl's release. Going into the ballot, she was in the best position she could hope for given her circumstances (Wolf being cut siphoned demand for her among Star Fox fan ballot voters that could have gone to her, and missing out on Star Fox Zero). The only higher consolation prize there is for Smash is the Mii costume, and for that there was no fighter type that Krystal could easily be made into a Mii costume for. As it stands, she is among the most dynamic Assist Trophies presently in Ultimate.

Going further on the tangent relating to Shorts, I do think it is possible that without the work of Shorts, Krystal might never have even been an Assist Trophy in Ultimate. A lot of character support in general is driven by organization (just look at BKupa's work in regards to the K. Rool and the Kremling Kutthroats), and I think he did well in that regard. His polling work also provided an interesting snap shot into the past in regards to character requests during the pre-Smash 4 period. I might someday write something on the last poll he put out back in October 2014 (he passed away in November 2014), since I think it in particular offers a very stark contrast to the dominant character requests in the present and would offer a fascinating history lesson to those who have an interest in character speculation backstory.

However, for requests, Krystal held on as best as she could given her circumstances. I think, should the character ever have a major role in a Star Fox title ever again, she will have a resurgence in support and will at least be within the Top 20 most wanted characters overall.
TL;DR Krystal's appeal (a unique newcomer, female, beign relevant) slowly dissapeared with time. We got more females and so the idea of adding a girl just because it's a girl became less of an excuse. And Wolf stomped her in every way, he appears in more games (both old and new) had seniority in his side, was far more popular in japanese circles (he was actually among the top 5 most wanted characters for Smash 4 DLC) and so on. Her AT was the best she got. Of she ever came back to Star Fox i do think she would stand a chance. I mean if she got in as an Despite beign basically forgotten, then i think appearing in a new SF might just be enough to give her a boost.

Want: 30%


Im happy that i got Wolf back in Smash, he was the only Star Fox character i wanted. But i would be okay with Krystal now if im honest. Im not into the Staff Moveset as much as everybody else and didn't found it as SUPER MEGA UNIQUE's as Wolf detractors always said ( i don't think they ever touched the A button)

It's a cool Nintendo character from an important series that could have nice playstyle, based on that alone i think im okay with her inclusi-ASLKDNAKLDNSALKDSANZXCCñ


I'VE COME TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT! SHADOW THE HEDGEHOG IS.........



the biggest wasted opportunity in Smash Ultimate.



Chance: 1%

If i did this in the base game, i would have given Shadow THE highest chance i could have ever given a character. Shadow goes way back to Brawl. He was one of the first Third Party Assist Trophies in the game (alonsgide Grey Fox) Despite Tails beign seen as Sonic's second banana and Eggman as Sonic's nemesis, it was the edgy black Hedgehog that got what was agruably the best treatment outside of Sonic himself when it came to characters. This was because in the 2000's, Shadow was still heavily featured in Sonic games as much as the blue blur himself. Shadow was a very popular Sonic character, and to this day he still is (agruably only next to Sonic and Eggman themselves) he's just polarizing because they decided to revive him and while that gave him a cahnce to get new fans, he was flanderized beyond belief. Come Smash 4, and some support for Shadow started to pop up. If the "ONE CHARACTER PER COMPANY" fanrule didn't existed back then, i can guarantee he would be in a similar place to Waluigi, a very popular AND polarizing choice as a character choice for Smash. He came back as an Assist Trophy again, so it's clear the developers still cared about him.

Come Smash Ultimate, and after Daisy and the Echo Fighter idea was confirmed, Shadow was one of the earliest ideas that people had. Shadow's entire character is supposed to be a parallel of Sonic, hell his original names was TERIOS (which means reflection) and his gameplay style was pretty much the same as Sonic, same goes for most platformers where Sonic and Shadow are playable. Both are fast, both can spin, yet both have very disninct color schemes and personalities that differ them. His Assist Trophy, at the time, was missing which only fueled speculation.

In the August Direct of Smash, Shadow's chances SKYROCKETED among the eyes of the community because:

1-Richter Belmont: He disproved the idea that clones had to be first party, beign the very first third party clone (and by extention, making Castlevania the very first franchise with multiple reps, a first for the Smash series) this only meant Shadow was now fully plausible.

2-Chrom: He showed that Echoes COULD have different moves and attributes (he lacks Roy's tipper and Flame effects, and his Up Special is like Ike's) so Shadow could mostly copy's Sonic's moves AND have 1 or 2 unique attacks like Teleporting as an Up Special.

3-Dark Samus: Dark Samus was completely absent until her reveal inthe August Direct, which means yes, ATs missing could actually mean something bigger was in the works. She also had her own unique animations despite having the same practical moveset, which means NO, Shadow doesn't need to be a full-on copy and paste of Sonic's expressions.

By this time, Shadow was seen as damn likely choice and for good reason. The only thing he really lacked was fan demand from the old days. I mean yes, Shadow was popular in the Sonic frachise and will likely always be, but his demand in Smash circles was lacking until Smash Ult's reveal when Echoes became a thing. In this scenario, what was seen as Shadow's biggest weakness ("he would only be a clone of Sonic") became his biggest ticket to fame. It's hard to think so, but you couldn't have a base roster talk WITHOUT someone mentioning Shadow as an Echo idea. Hell he was probably the most popular echo choice out of all if im honest. Even Ken wasn't as mentioned, mostly because the Sonic's fabase interest in Smash is far larger than SF's. I remember in the early Twenty-Tens whenever Shadow was mentioned, he was always automatically vetoed because "NOOOOOOO HE SUCKS HE WOULD BE A CLONE OF SONIC" and now people were like "NOOOOO SHADOW IS TOO UNIQUE HE CAN'T BE AN ECHO". Look, just because Shadow sometimes uses chaos powers in 1 or 2 games doesn't change the fact that he still parallels Sonic's moveset in many other regards.

Then, during the Hype of the Grinch Hoax, Shadow was featured among the rumored roster alongside Ken. It's funny to think people think Shadow can't be an echo and yet Ken is, despite the fact that Ken is so different from Ryu in Ultimate that he is basically a Semi-Clone while Dr. Mario, a "non-echo", is still a clone of Mario. If you were to play SFV or 4 and think that Ken is the same as Ryu you would be laughed out of the tournament.

So comes Nov 1st, Ken is confirmed, and he was basically barely even an echo. He had similar moves to its parent fighter, yet had its own spin on it. You would think with all of these echoes that showcase he was fully capable of beign one, he would be the next in line...................he was shown as an Assist Trophy.........................

and with that, the dream died.



Now, the idea of Echoes beign DLC is seen as a borderline-impossible idea. Not because it's hard, but becuase...........why? The idea of Echo Fighters was that they could cram out extra figthers using existing ones as bases in order to pad out the roster, since the Roster of Ultimate was over 85% Veterans and barely any newcomers. Now with DLC, they can roll out new characters without having to worry about veterans and all that other content in Smash's base game. As such, the idea of more echo fighters, inlcuding Shadow, is dead.

and i don't expect him or any other new echoes for the next game, since i firmly believe the roster is getting Thanos'd by the next entry and will focus on non-character based content instead.


Want: 100%.........but only for Ultimate. 0% for any other game. If im honest im not interesed in any Sonic char in Smash outside of him in this game.

Ever heard of that trope? They wasted a perfectly good character? This is Shadow's trope now. You have a character, who has been in the series since Brawl in a midly notable form, usually seen as second-to-playable in the eyes of many fans. he managed to return to Smash 4, something the likes of Isaac can't even claim. He's one of the most popular characters in the Sonic series, still appears regulary in Sonic-related Media (yes, he hasn't been playable in recent Sonic games, but neither have Knuckles and Tails outside of Sonic Mania, and in Spin Offs Shadow is still a mainstay) i don't see Sega saying no to Shadow beign playable. and the argument of Shadow not beign echo-fit is dumb. This is the same franchise that gave us Captain Falcon, Falcondorf, Pissed Off Mario, OC Bowser's Final Form, etc. Having Shadow do an Akward kick is not gonna be the end of the World for Sega, Shadow or anyone. No, Wolf is not a good comparison since he's the exception to the norm when it comes to clones an echoes, the norm beign almost ALL of the other clones and semi-clones in Smash are far more similar to their counterparts than Wolf.

The only Real reason i could imagine Shadow not making it is his non-visible fan demand prior to Ultimate's Reveal at E3 2018 There are many characters that are popular and could be very well recieved for Smash, but their fanbase is silent because there's no real reason to support them in their eyes. Banjo was heavily demanded for Smash 4 DLC, but his demand was far too late to affect that game, but perfect for Ultimate.

But even then, i don't see as this big of a reason for Shadow's exclusion. Almost NOBODY specifically requested Richter for Smash and yet he got in as an Echo. You could say because he's popular in his own series, but that also applies to Shadow too. Yes, Sakurai stated Simon and Richter were requested for the Ballot, but Simon and Richter were barely discussed for Smash despite this, so how come the same can't happen for Shadow?

I don't want Shadow as an unique character. I love his chaos powers, but that ins't the reason i play Smash for. I play Smash because i love playing as Nintendo characters and some guest characters that i see as bonuses. not the main appeal. Shadow fits that perfectly. Among the 3rd party franchises, Sonic is the one i see the most potential (before Bayo's reveal, NOBODY talked about potential Sega Reps outside of another Sonic Char) and while i love Tails, Eggman & Knuckles, i have a soft spot for Edgy boy over here. Yeah, i usually hate the edgy rivals (Iori and Sasuke come to mind) but Shadow is an exception. I guess i have a guilty pleasure thing for him in general.

I usually don't care if a character is super likely. I see Phoenix Wright as likely but i will not shed a tear if he's out. But Shadow, i love Shadow. I don't need Shadow in Smash, but the circumstances to add him were perfect for me to accept him. He was the only echo i wanted in Smash, and still is. Unlike the majority of planet earth, i don't have a mental breakdown when talking about Sonic's moveset in Smash. Yeah he could USE a redesign, but im the guy who mains Simon without guilt or remorse (and loves him as is) so using a similar moveset for Shadow would be okay with me. Just give him a Teleport UP Special and maybe one or two different moves to reference his chaos powers, and give him more appropiate animations for tauns and idles obviously, and he's good to go. But i guess doing that was too much huh?

For as much i would love Shadow to become an Echo in this game, that chance has long sailed, and having him in the next entries would miss the point.

This could have been one of the most hype fighting game clones, but as always, Smash finds a way to dissapoint me. God.

Sayonara Shadow.............



Well.................that was sad, who's next?
......oh.......

MASS DESTRUCTION ACROSS THE LAND.

Chance: 5%
Out of all the AT promotions not named WA, i actually see him as probably the most likely one. Doesn't mean much but look. Bomberman is a very iconic franchise, while it was dead at the time of Smash Ult's development starting, he came back thanks to Super R. While not a super mega succuess, it's actually one of the best selling Bomberman games of recent memory (not saying much i know) and at least this means the series is back unto the picture. It helps that Bomberman's AT is not even that much of an issue, since the idea of multiple Bombermans in his games is a thing, so they could just change the color of the Bomberman AT if the White Bomberman (or Bombermen of any other color) is on screen.

But outside of that.........yeah will likely will wait for next game. I do see him having a good chance assuming his franchise doesn't go to hibernation again.

Fun Fact: Bomberman used to be the most popular Third Party choice next to Mega Man for Brawl. This was because Bomberman was very active as a franchise in the 2000's and Hudson Soft was still a thing. It was only in Smash 4's time when he fell off due to HS beign defunct and its assets beign purchased by Konami, and the whole "ONE CHARACTER PER COMPANY" fanrule was in full swing, and Snake himself was already on thin ice so Bomberman was barely talked about. However, he was actually very talked about in the days of Smash Switch Speculation in 17 and 18 (before E3 Obviously) due to Super Bomberman R bringing him back from the dead, in fact Simon was barely talked about.

Want: 100%


This is the Toad of Third Parties, a character that for all intents and purposes SHOULD be in Smash by now, but is not because life is ****ing mentally deficent.

I've talked about "History With Nintendo" beign a preference for me, and this guys has it in SPADES. NES, Game Boy, Super Game Boy, Super Nintendo (5 ****ing games in fact), GBC, N64, Gamcube, Wii, DS. He basically appears in every Nintendo system excet the Wii U (which isn't a big deal seeing how barely any third party support was in that ****ing console) and 3DS (and he was going to have a game for that System, but it was cancelled) HE EVEN HAD A GAME ON THE VIRUTAL BOY! THERE'S BARELY ANY CHARACTER THAT CAN PROCLAIM THAT. NOT EVEN Samus and Link!

and because of this, it irritates me to no ****ing end that a character that has become a Nintendo mainstay for so many years is nothing but an Assist Trophy, while characters like Snake, Cloud and Joker are in, any excuses be ****ing damned.

As for movesets. I actually like him having one gimmick, Bombs. Just plain-ass, normal, everyday, no question about it, no RNG, no Damage Imputs, not using K.O Meter, not having Invincible Stand Knock Offs, not Belly Shield, no having a mecha as vehicle, no customizable, no left and right arm controls, luma stand-wannabe, limited tome ussage, simple, ordinary, unembellished, unmistakable, crystal clear, as frank as Frankenstein, as blunt as an atom bomb, one compound word, it's mother ****ing, God damned, sons-of-*****ing, ****-****-****ing BOMBS!

.....well you could have some fun with the bombs since they come in many ways, and many ways to be implemented in Smash too.


Remember when Smash didn't need Passive Abilities for every single character? God characters with simple mechanics are becoming more of a minority in each newcomer pool and it's horrible in my eyes.

Give Bomberman the spot he gladly deserves. and this is coming from the guy who heavily wanted Simon in Smash.

Im not even that much of a Bomberman fan. I mean yeah i loved the Super Ninetndo games, but i haven't played all of them which is a shame since this franchise is damn massive (albeit i don't think i need to play them since they are very samey in a way) he was already in my top 10 back in the early speculation days. He's cute and cartoony, he's very recognizable, he's well known, he has a style of gamplaye that can be easily translated to Smash, he has basically as much of a Nintendo presence as Mega Man (hell, even more i would say) he should have been inlcuded since 4 if im honest. Way better than most 3rd parties we have in Smash like Terry, Snake, Bayo, Joker and the inevitable third party character that is coming in Figher Pass 2 that im not going to like.

aaaand im upset again. God damn i made a mess. But it's my opinion and i don't care about how unpopular it is.


.....actually let me make it more unpopular: HOMURA DID EVERYTHING WRONG, PINAPPLE BELONGS ON PIZZA, GAMES ARE NOT ART, CASTLEVANIA NETFLIX ****ING SUCKS, SAMURAI JACK'S FINALE WASN'T TERRIBL-


(This user has been deleted for having wrong opinions)

Noms:
Figher Pass 2 gets Delayed X5
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,251
Abstain completely on chance for everyone and want for Krystal and Bomberman

EDGY THE HEDGY, on the other hand...
Want: 10000000%
...Look, Shadow is the most wasted character for this game.
He's a beloved character...well, until they ruined his character in recent games, but ooooh boy that's another discusion. He has a unique moveset, or could be similar to Sonic, he could bring spirits, he can bring more banger Sonic songs, there's not much reason he isn't in this game...And he's one of my favorite characters. Ever.

Or to be more precise, Shadow in SA2, Battle, and 06. THAT is Shadow the Hedgehog, and I hate that he was turned into Vegeta Clone 3000 in recent games. But, I just want a good moveset and some sick songs. Shadow could easily provide that, and I want more Sonic content...

Just please, Sega, fix Shadow the Hedgehog. He was never Vegeta. If you really want a Vegeta for Sonic's Goku, JET EXISTS. You don't need to assassinate another character to do it.

Nomiations: Shuichi Saihara x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,154
Location
Duwang
1. it’s a rule for characters, concepts are kosher.

2. Someone should put the effort into a thread if they want others to spend time talking about them.

3. the noms purge is not just for that reason. Look at all the abandoned characters and concepts under 50.

4. I have given a good portion of time for anyone to save anything they are nomming. Throwing together a support thread or pushing something over the threshold by day 500 shouldn’t be too hard.
Oh I totally get the under 50 thing, just not the required support thread one.
 

Mr. Nintendo

KIRBY!!!!
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,753
Location
Australia
Eh, abstain. Don't want to write for 3 characters

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction 10% all around, not sure who I'm predicting but I'm too lazy to check
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
38
Abstaining on everyone today.

Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5

Oh god, we're having a noms purge???!?! Gotta save my mobile game girl!
 

Jomosensual

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
1,279
1. it’s a rule for characters, concepts are kosher.

2. Someone should put the effort into a thread if they want others to spend time talking about them.

3. the noms purge is not just for that reason. Look at all the abandoned characters and concepts under 50.

4. I have given a good portion of time for anyone to save anything they are nomming. Throwing together a support thread or pushing something over the threshold by day 500 shouldn’t be too hard.
What's the ruling on a thread that covers multiple characters like my overall Sony support thread? Do I need to go make ones for individual characters for them or since the thread is open to talking about all of them will that cover the lieks of Kratos, Nathan Drake, etc all in one?
 

millsfan

Smash Cadet
Joined
Sep 5, 2019
Messages
48
We need Shadow! Been waiting since 2007! Check out Smash legacy xp or Smash flash mod by Znx to see a unique moveset.

I wish I could say 100% chance, but who knows what Nintendo will do. I feel shadow is just waiting in line to get in and could have a fair a fair shot now that the runners are in (Ridley, Rool, banjo)
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
236
Krystal
Chance: 0%
If Nintendo told Sakurai "you're upgrading an assist trophy, pick one", it would probably be Isaac or Waluigi due to their huge demand. They would likely need to say specificly that Krystal needs to be made playable for it to happen. Nintendo has no reason to specify Krystal needs to be upgraded. Her series is dead and she isn't topping the charts with fan demand, it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to demand she gets upgraded. Unless Star Fox is getting a new game and she's a promo pick, there's no reason for this to happen.

Want: 0%
We don't really need more Star Fox reps right now. Not every franchise needs to have 5-6 reps in Smash.

Bomberman
Chance: 0%
I'm going to go with something close to what I said last time for him. I find it to be very unlikely that an assist trophy gets upgraded without tons of fan demand. IIRC, Little Mac and Isabelle had a ton (IDK how much Dark Samus had, but she's an echo anyway). I'm not seeing many people asking for Bomberman.

Want: 0%
I like his assist trophy. I want him to stay as an assist trophy.

Shadow
Chance: 5%
Shadow does actually have some fan demand, hence why he doesn't have 0% chance here. But that fact remains that as of the moment I'm typing this, assist trophies are still deconfirmed. However, there's also the fact that if Shadow gets in, he'd probably end up as a Sonic echo fighter. And we know those won't be coming as a paid DLC slot.

Want: 35%
A slower but more powerful Sonic would be a pretty fun thing to play as. I think Sonic is decently fun to play every once in a while, and I'd have to assume Shadow wouldn't be too different.

Noms: Alex Mason x5
 

WaddleMatt

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2018
Messages
1,009
Location
United Kingdom
Switch FC
SW 5950 1333 3717
If Nintendo told Sakurai "you're upgrading an assist trophy, pick one", it would probably be Isaac or Waluigi due to their huge demand.
I don't comment much here but I'm going to now. This mindset is so ****ing ridiculous, sorry to say. Do you really think Nintendo, a company, is going to think along the lines of assist trophies and making sure that only one gets upgraded for DLC? I doubt they really care if a character is an assist trophy or not I'll be honest. And I highly highly HIGHLY doubt they would ever go to request a character be added as DLC on the basis to do with an assist trophy, this thinking feels like something only a fan speculator would do not a corporation who cares about sales. If they want an assist trophy character to be upgraded, they'll tell Sakurai to do it as many times as they want. If Nintendo wants the rest of the pass to be Krystal, Waluigi, Isaac, Geno, and Skull Kid they will do it. Of course, I'm not saying the pass would be that but I really really think it is frankly ridiculous that people view assist trophies as competing for a spot with other assist trophies to be upgraded, that is not how a company thinks.
 

warpenguin55

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Messages
236
... Alrighty then.
1. I never said that Nintendo actually said that. It was a hypothetical. Maybe in the FP2 planning meeting or whatever they did to decide the characters they said "f it, we'll upgrade only 1". Maybe they didn't.
2. Nintendo has actually done something like the hypothetical situation before. Sakurai stated in an interview before that he was pressured by Nintendo to add Corrin into Smash 4.
3. No crap they could put 5 assist trophies in the rest of the fighters pass. They could also give us Brash the Bear, Baldi, Groose, Freddie the Fish, and The Dog from Jumpstart 1st grade if they thought those characters would sell. Are either of these options likely? Not at all. It's their game, they'll put in whatever they want.
4. Technically, all the characters are competing for the 5 remaining slots.
5. This quote right here
And I highly highly HIGHLY doubt they would ever go to request a character be added as DLC on the basis to do with an assist trophy, this thinking feels like something only a fan speculator would do not a corporation who cares about sales.

You do realize what game this is right? None of us work for Nintendo. None of us have the same info Nintendo does. We have no way of knowing what characters they think will sell. That's the whole premise of Rate Their Chances. That we don't know. If we knew the selection process for how Smash characters were decided, we wouldn't be here. We can't possibly know which characters would sell well. All we have are guesses based on past data, and I think an assist trophy being upgraded won't happen in FP2. I was starting to think it was around the time Min Min got revealed, but the fact the Springman was never considered (Sakurai based off what Sakurai said, he wasn't in the running at least). Saying to think like Nintendo isn't that easy when we don't have the same data they do. That quote pisses me off because it reminds me of a common annoying phrase that was tossed around on LoL boards before that craphole got closed down. Sorry.

6. I didn't just say "assist trophy, so dead" this time around. In fact, this might be the only time I DIDN'T leave it at that. I said more than just that. Krystal is from a franchise that has been on life support in the form of Smash for years. Shadow would most likely get in as Sonic echo fighter. I don't care if he does other stuff in Sonic games, that's how I think he'd get in. For Bomberman, I said that I don't think he's got enough fan support. Nothing wrong with any of that, just in my eyes, that's enough to warrant a 0%. Just like how I think LoL's popularity in China meant that Ahri and Gnar deserved 20-25% but almost nobody else thought the same. It's about how you interpret the data.
 

GoodGrief741

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No crap they could put 5 assist trophies in the rest of the fighters pass. They could also give us Brash the Bear, Baldi, Groose, Freddie the Fish, and The Dog from Jumpstart 1st grade if they thought those characters would sell. Are either of these options likely? Not at all. It's their game, they'll put in whatever they want.
The fact that in your mind that selection of characters is equivalent in chance to any combination of 5 Assist Trophies, many of which are iconic, popular, or both, speaks volumes about your approach.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Jan 19, 2013
Messages
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Krystal

Chance - 0.05% - Star Fox hasn't had a good time lately. Even outside of Assist Trophy stuff, the last game was decried as trying too hard to make the WiiU work with it's gimmicks, and Star Fox's popularity is currently stalled. Worse, she wasn't even in that game, as it was yet another reboot to the franchise. They have proven time and again they don't really have a good idea on what to do with Star Fox, and Krystal is often left out due to the constant reboots meaning she can't appear until the sequals that never come do. While she may be popular, I don't think any Star Fox character, especally her, can escape until Star Fox escapes the limbo it has entered itself.

Want - 45% - She's cool, but not exactly who I would pick for Star Fox. I'd much rather have Slippy, and I don't much care about anyone else.


Shadow

Chance - 1% - Shadow was viewed as the easiest Echo for a third party character that didn't make it. So why was he not included in base game? Who knows, but the fact that he is thought of as an Echo fighter is a major problem on top of whatever obstacles we had before. Shadow really needs to stand as his own to succeed as as DLC character, as I have little faith in echos unless they are released alongside the character they are echoing. I'm not certain they have the inclination to do so for Shadow, especally for DLC, when someone like Tails and Eggman would be better recived overall.

Want - 35% - I don't care for echos overall. As for oringal characters, like I mentioned before Tails or Eggman would be my choice.


Bomberman

Chance - 5% - After Spring Man's decomfirmation, I struggle to see any Assist Trophy escape. Bomber man has the clout, the connections, the fame, and even the moveset potential for him to work. Were he not an Assist Trophy, he'd be much higher. However, the fact that Spring Man was seemingly not even considered makes me hesitate to say that any Assist Trophy will be majorly considered.

Want - 75% - Bomberman just fits. A longruning Videogame star with a clear idea for a move set, while not quite being very obvious, and a long history with Nintendo. I couldn't ask much more for a third party.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5
 

Heoj

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
341
Krystal:
Chance: 0%
Yeh i just dont see it. If they go for an assist trophy upgrade theres just no way they would pick krystal. So overall i just dont see it at all.

Want: 0%
I dont really have any interest in seeing krystal as a fighter.

Shadow:
Chance: 10%
I also dont really see shadow getting in but he is one of the more talked about assist upgrades so he has that going, tho if we were to get another sega rep they woyld probs go for a different franchise

Want: 90%
Shadow was my most wanted back in brawl and smash 4 as well as base game spec for ultimate, tho my want for shadow dipped on nov 1 2018 but he would still be insanely hype.

Bomberman:
Chance: 1%
I dont see bomberman getting in at all honestly but i guess theres a slim chance.

Want: 0%
Same with krystal, i just dont have any interest in seeing bomberman playable.
 

Opossum

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Hey Sari Sari , what's the plan as far as unusually high ratings again? Do they still not count?
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
236
nope it was his own dev team that pressured him
I googled it and it looks like you're right on this one. My bad, I misremembered. Thanks!


The fact that in your mind that selection of characters is equivalent in chance to any combination of 5 Assist Trophies, many of which are iconic, popular, or both, speaks volumes about your approach.
Oh FFS that's not the point I was trying to make and you know it.
 

Ridrool64

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Decided to skip the previous AT day because I honestly didn't feel like rating them.

For the most part, the same applies here. I will give them all 0%'s in chance. Mostly for the same reason, they are AT's who aren't Waluigi. Shadow lost a lot of his pre-release hype and is no longer the most requested SEGA newcomer (hell he's not even the most requested Sonic character now, Tails and Eggman are back on top). Bomberman had his hype squashed at the same time but with not even a third of the reaction Waluigi got, and nobody could count on Krystal. I don't believe Assists are necessarily out, but with Shadow and Bomberman they're third parties, so I don't think they're going to get re-negotiated for. Krystal is first party, which would help, except that she's basically been kicked out of her own series. Which is at best in dire straits and at worst died with Zero on the Wii U. So she's got no future, or an extremely bleak one.

Abstain on want for Krystal.

Shadow Want: Double zeroes. If you're not an Echo, you're not worth it. I'm all in on Arle. Besides, if I really suddenly had a craving to play as Shadow in Smash... I can do that through Brawl mods, which also give him a way better moveset than he'd ever get from an official title. I don't expect him to get a third of the love he got in Legacy XP. And while that ship has sailed, another mod also features LXP's Shadow. So that's all well and good.

Bomberman Want: 80%. You really gotta hand it to him, Bomberman made an impression on me through a fangame. A really good one, too. If you guys haven't checked out Power Bomberman with its small filesize and easy to get mechanics (and MASSIVE roster), you're missing out. Bomberman's super great.

Frisk x 5. Takamaru, Lip and Mach Rider all have the exact same issue (you kinda have to sell them since people specifically have to pay for them, which doesn't really work when they're old characters with no future) and feel like characters not only intended for base game, but only while Sakurai was picking. Had he complete creative control, I'd go higher on their scores, but I will give all of them a blanket 3.20% each.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Hey Sari Sari , what's the plan as far as unusually high ratings again? Do they still not count?
We take it in a case by case basis, if someone has a strong argument that Isaac or Sora or whoever is a lock, it’s gonna survive.

that didn’t happen today.

day will end in a little bit once I’m at my computer, say an hour or two.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Abstain Boss Rush x 5

Day over, rate Takamaru, Lip, and Mach Rider, predict Chorus Kids, Karate Joe, and Rhythm Girl.
 

fogbadge

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ooh gonna have to think about these three and come back. looking forward to rating the rhythm paradise trio
 

DanganZilla5

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Yes that's right, I finally changed my profile picture. It falls more in line with my tastes.


Abstain on Lip. Not interested in rating her.
______________

The famous example of a character who didn't get in due to being niche in foreign countries.

Chance: 1%

Sakurai did state he was interested in Takamaru and the Mysterious Murasame Castle does have a decent amount of content with a Takamaru assist trophy, Mii costume and spirit, plus a few music tracks. And that only adds to my doubts about Takamaru becoming playable. He already has a good amount of content and I don't see any big push for more content from his game. While The Mysterious Murasame Castle has been ported to the 3DS in multiple countries, Takamaru is still not a big request or popular character. While the game is good, I don't see Takamaru being pushed and there are other more requested and popular assist trophies.

Want: Abstain

I was going to give him a 1 but the gameplay seems interesting so I will hold judgement.

______________________

*Flashbacks to the Grinch leak days intensifies*

Chance: 1%

This girl is the definition of a base roster pick. Mach Rider was a notable game for the NES sure, but her being a DLC character? I'm not sure about that. I mean I would buy her but outside of a small fanbase she doesn't have much demand. And there is the problem of there being very little music or spirit options, unless if they take elements from other games but that would basically make it more like a retro gaming challenger pack. Besides, even if Sakurai really wanted to go for a retro pick he could also pick Excitebiker, another NES driving character whose game is more iconic.

Want: 55%

Sure, let me drive around the stage shooting people. The Grinch Leak did get me pretty excited for her inclusion and I would be pumped for another remix of the Mach Rider song. This is an unexpected retro pick that I would be excited for and I'm curious to see how Sakurai would translate a character who is stuck on their vehicle into Smash.

Predictions:
Rhythm Heaven squad - 14% for all

Noms: Ezio x5
 

RouffWestie

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Takamaru
Chance: 1%

Sakurai seems to have considered him many times already. Nintendo gave him his own mini-game on that one WiiU collection and brought his OG game to the US on the 3DS. He still hasn't made it beyond AT status due to being obscure and only showing up in a few games, and nothing about his situation has changed much.
Want: 10%
I still don't care for him as a character; he's a legitimate generic samurai and was intended to be such from the get-go. However I have recently experienced a revitalized admiration for Samurai Jack, so I guess he'd be kinda neat just for that. Honestly, that's the only reason I can think of that I'd want him in.
----------
Lip
Chance: 0%

Her only hope was Sakurai picking her as the game's "random unexpected character," which ended up instead being :ultpiranha:. If Nintendo removed her from her own franchise in the first place, there's no realistic situation in which I see them willingly choosing her to be in Smash. Nintendo knows they’re asking for money for these characters, so they’re likely going to avoid anyone like her.
Want: 1%
Sakurai would have the potential to make a really cool moveset based on PdP, but I’m super-particular about how I’d want it’s mechanics to be implemented. I think it’s highly possible she would end up being too gimmicky and I wouldn’t consider her worth the effort. Even then, I can only truly vouch for Tetris and Puzzle & Dragons representation as far as puzzle games go, since they’re my favorite puzzle game and essentially “an almost-perfected pseudo-Pokemon Puzzle League,” respectively.
----------
Mach Rider
Chance: 0%

Sakurai has considered Mach Rider before, but that never really went anywhere. All Mach Rider has at this point is the spirit and a remix. I think Nintendo wouldn’t have even been considering this for DLC.
Want: 0%
I don’t have any interest in this character. I don’t think there’s much they could bring to Smash that I’d find genuinely distinct and never-done-before. I’m not really keen on faceless rider types in the first place.
 

Sari

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Some songs for today's characters:

Takamaru


Lip


Mach Rider


Mach Rider really only has those two songs so I'm just gonna post the catchy Melee theme as the last track.

-----

Also I'm just gonna abstain completely for today since I don't know much about these characters. I'd be down for Mach Rider though I should probably play her game before I give an actual rating.

Chance predictions:
Chorus Kids: 13.00%
Karate Joe: 5.00%
Rhythm Girl: 5.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5
 
Last edited:

fogbadge

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hmm abstain on lip, dont know enough

takumaru
chances: 5% assist trophy may still be an obstacle but there are a few other thing as well. skaurai did consider him at one point and the main reason he decided against him is no longer a thing but for some reason i dont see him returning to the idea. even after his game got outside of japan he remained relatively obscure i think most would reconize him more from smash. though thats probably true of a few of our fighters.
want: 70% i have a bit of a soft spot for obscure nintendo characters. plus the stage and moveset could be really fun. ive never bought into the whole to many sword fighters shtick and thats no reason to dismiss him.

mach rider
chances: 10% sakurai did mentioned that he thought about including him cause he thought his name sounded cool. however that was a while and the same for the thing he said about people from his gen suggesting him so we cant be sure it applies here. there was no sign he even considered including a retro character this time so thats not gonna help him either.
want: 70% riding around of a gun bike might be kinda cool. and like i said i do like obscure nintendo characters and i do like retro characters and wouldnt mind a few more.

nominate nate adams x5
 

SharkLord

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Pangaea, 250 MYA
Takamaru:
Chance: 5%. Old game, obscure in the West, not much fan support. Things are looking pretty grim for this guy.
Want: 60%. Usually I'd just put my standard "Neutral, but I'm sure he'd be cool," but he earns some sympathy points from me. He got a bit of a push in the pre-Smash 4 days, with cameos in Samurai Warriors and Nintendo Land, plus his game being put on Virtual Console. Heck, he even got a triumphant reveal trailer... And then it turned out he was an Assist Trophy. That's just downright cruel, and I feel sorry for the guy. Therefore, I'm giving him some extra points.
Mach Rider:
Chance: 5%. Kinda like Takamaru, but less obscure in the West and less appearances elsewhere. Not very confident in him, unless we suddenly get a Mach Rider: Uprising or something.
Want: 55%. I probably wouldn't care about this guy had it not been for the Grinch Leak. Still, he (She?) rides a bike with guns and the ability to split into multiple different pieces. Look me in the eye and tell be that's not cool.
Lip
Chance: 10%. An extra five percent for being on NSO's SNES emulator, but that's about it. She doesn't have much of a shot.
Want: 60%. Played her game on NSO. It's pretty fun, if not absurdly fast in the later levels. I'd be down for her.
Predictions:
Chorus Kids: 17.98%
Karate Joe: 14.26%
Rhythm Girl: 11.91%
Nomination: Klonoa x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Ace
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Messages
538
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winnipeg
Takamaru

Chance: 10%. He was considered for the roaster for game 4, but instead was an assist trophy. While he still is an assist trophy, there are some assist to make more likely to be promoted, his chance is not at an all time low.

Want: 55%. He would be a fun character to play as, well he would have some unique properties that would represent this old school rep. I can see him face off against Link and PIt in a free for all at any castle stage. Overall, Takamaru would be a unique choice.

Lip

Chance: 10%. She came from a game that’s has as recently been release date released for SNES online, so her chance has increased a bit. While she may be a spirit or a Mii Costume, her chance is not getting any lower.

Want: 50%. She would be a fun character to play ready in the game, and since her stick is already in, she would feel proud to use it once more. I can see her face off against Kirby and Jigglypuff in a friendly fight. Overall, Lip would make a unique entry in the Smash Bros game.

Mach Rider

Chance: 10%. Mach Rider was considered for Melee, and was in quite a bit of leaks, but so far, Mach Rider did not get much representation, so Mach rider’s chance is low. Then again, Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt Rep also fighters that are old school yet the young made it in Smash Bros.

Want: 50%. Mach Rider would be a fun character to play as, and I can see Mach Rider challenge Captain Falcon and Sonic in a fight at Big blue. Overall, Mach Rider would make a decent addition to the roaster.

Prediction: Rythem Heaven Rep (15%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Olimar
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
293
Nosebleed Samurai, Magical Flower Girl and Captain Falcon's Dad (.....or Mom)

Chance for all: 1%


Yeah, these guys aren't getting in.

First Up, Takamaru from Murasame Castle. Fun Fact, in the pre-release days of Smash 4, Takamaru was a sizable cult following for Smash, why?

1-The retro character tendency. Since Melee, we have gotten a character who's origin and relevance only was prominent in the 80's when the Nes was still in its prime. Melee had Ice Climbers, Brawl had Pit and R.O.B, and Smash 4 had Duck Hunt. Because of this, it was common to speculate the idea of a new "Retro" rep in Smash 4, wheter be another NES character or from another system like the Gameboy or SNES. Takamaru was brought up because despite his game not beign released outside of Japan at the time, he had presence in crossovers outside of his home game, such as in Samurai Warriors 3 for the Wii where Takamaru was playable or in Nintendo Land (a first party Lauch Title for the Wii U) where one of the minigames was based on Murasame Castle.

Cameos like these did give the impression that Nintendo had a soft spot for Nazo No Murasame Jo. There's also the fact that the game is seen as a "Sister game" to Legend of Zelda, similar to Kid Icarus and Metroid (all of them came out in the same year) So you have a character who is still fondly remembered in Nintendo circles and could have an unique Samurai-themed moveset (we have a **** ton of sword users, but almost all of them are more Western-oriented, a more eastern-inspired swordsman reliying on Quickdraw and the like would ironically be a breath of fresh air) and he was seen as the most likely character to be the "retro" rep, hell some people thought we could get a revival, i mean Samurai game by Nintendo would definetly turn up heads!.

Not only that, but in 2014 it was announced that Nazo No Murasame Jo would get released outside of Japan on the Virtual Console! It all seemed to go well for this guy!

.......he was confirmed as an Assist Trophy the next week.

Yeah, talk about a downfall. Why was he excluded? apparently, because he had low popularity, despite the fact that the likes of Duck Hunt are on the roster. ( and let's be honest, "popular" is not the word i would describe) However if we do talk about beign recognizable then yes, Duck Hunt was the better choice.

Now to the lead up to Ultimate, one would think that Takamaru was at least a little plausible. He still had all of those cameos and crossovers across the years, his game was now localized, and he has a notable presence in the Smash series thanks to his Assist Trophy and even had a Mii Costume as DLC, probably because he knew people would like the idea of playing as him. So maybe now it's his cha-NOPE, Assist Trophy AGAIN. Although this time, there was no "retro" rep around here. (and no i don't count the likes of Simon or K.Rool as "retro")

It's a shame, because he was one of the first Assist Trophies revealed in Smash Ultimate, in E3 2018, meaning that as soon as Ultimate was announced, Takamaru was disqualified for the roster already. Then again it was probably better this way seeing how Isaac and Shadow's fanbases went. I do think that part of the reason Takamaru wasn't playable here was because the "Everyone is Here" aspect took FAR too many resources on the roster, meaning only a few newcomers could be done, and Sakurai thought that the likes of Taka weren't important enough to give a promotion.

But this guy is one of those who i see happening in the next entry. I see Ultimate's roster choices like "everyone is here" and the heavy amount of Third Parties as an exception and not the norm going foward, and so i see the idea of a retro rep coming back for the next entry. Now some people will say that only the Ice Climbers were Explicitly stated to be representatives form and old school era, and that the others like Pit and Duck Hunt were added for other reasons (namely to surprise gamers) and you may have a point there, but seeing how 3 out of 5 had at least one token NES character from the old days in its roster, im pretty sure this isn't the last we have seen of the Foolish Samurai.

Want: 80%


Oh yeah, i would love this. I love retro reps, even when i don't care about them like Duck Hunt or Ice Climbers, i love the idea of taking old school characters and bring them back into the spotlight. It's in my underdog-rooting nature, and there's no retro character that i want more than Balloon Fighter!

.....oh yeah and Takamaru is pretty cool too! I do like the idea of a Samurai character on the roster. It's one of the easiest ways to bring a new appeal to an oversaturated and repetitive archetype that has become a little stale (even if a little bit overhated too)

But this isn't the only reason i want Takamaru though. You see, i have visited this website since the pre-Smash 4 days, so i have a lot of nostalgia for those days when i speculated and followed every bit of news of Smash 4, the hype, the dissapointment, and Luigi's nose, it was a pretty fun time. I think i had more fun speculating on Smash 4 than i did on Smash Wii U. (loved Smash 3DS though) and because of this Takamaru brings me back, to those early 2014 days when he was talked about and rumored for the roster, and i distinctly remember the speculators too. Oh Azure Warrio, im sad that Takamaru didn't made it in, you were one of the most passionate Takamaru fans around here and one of the most prominent Smash 4 pre-release days users, and part of me would love to see Takamaru in Smash JUST to see him happy.

That's not to say i want him "for the fans". I want him because he's kewl.

Next up, the Fairy.

Unlike Taka, Lip never had a major support or cult in any game, because unlike Taka, she never had any major appereances outside of Captain Rainbow (which Takamaru and Little Mac also appeared in) and while here games were localized, they suffered from Doki Doki syndrome just like Arle, but unlike Arle and Puyo Puyo, Panel De Pol and Lip never caught on that much, not even in Japan. What's worse is that her main weapon, the Lip Stick, has been an item since Melee, and if Toad has taught me anything is that scenarios like this mean your character is doomed to be not playable at all. Such a shame.

Want: 70%

Is it unfair to me to rate her this high even though i gave Arle a big fat Zero? Yeah, and i don't care!

Similar to Takamaru, i have a nostalgia for Lip. The first webpage i ever visited on Smashboards was a Lip for Smash 4 thread, made by @~Valkyrie~, and it got me sold on the character!................Despite me not playing any of her games (at least until now) and me not beign a fan of puzzle games due to me beign ass at them, but still. Hell i remember drawing her alonsgide my most wanted characters like Simon, Little Mac, Waluigi and King K. Rool.

I do love the character due to the charming design and aesthetic, and my love for Nintendo underdogs makes me want her by default.

If nothing else, so this image one day becomes a reality.

God, this was before Mac was even confirmed.

Also shoutout to that guy who does Panel De Pon Smash videos, even if those are...................Japanese.

Now unto that one guy from the Grinch Leak.

He is the one that i care about the least. I don't have that much to say here other than, he looks cool i guess, and i suppose a revival could do wonders to this guy.

Want: 65%


Sure, why not? I'll say it again, i love Nintendo's obscure characters, and i gladly would take over most of the speculated characters that you see nowadays. Also, he reminds me of the Grinch Hoax (or "leak") and while the downfall was horrible, i would lie if i didn't say i do prefer those remaning characters over Fighter Pass 1, and likely Fighter Pass 2.

Speaking of that......


Predictions:

Chorus Kids: 4.5%



Oh and guys did you know about the GigaLeak? Well among the Super Mario Kart Prototypes they found sprites of a placeholder racer that looks a ton like Mach Rider. Likely a coincidence, but still.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
236
Chance for all of them: 0%
All 3 of these characters are in a pretty similar scenario. Firstly, they are all from dead franchises. Mach Rider's last game was released in 1985/86/87 depending on if live in Japan, NA, or EU. Takamaru's The Mysterious Murasame Castle was last seen as a re-release on the GBA in 2004, but much like the original, only in Japan. There has never been an international release of his game. Panel De Pon/Puzzle League/Tetris Attack is admittedly less dead than the other 2. It has multiple spin offs using other Nintendo franchises as the theme (Pokemon and Animal Crossing). The Panel De Pon wiki says she was in the Pokemon one, I have no idea about the AC version though. I'm still going to count it as a dead franchise but TBH I really don't friggen know.

Second, all 3 of these characters are pretty unknown. I learned of all 3 characters through Smash and not through their own games. I found out who Lip was through her item(I thought it was a Kirby item at first, not sure why), Takamaru through his assist trophy, and Mach Rider from early SSBU speculation. Their relevance could very well be an issue, if one or more of these characters get revealed at the majority of people's first thought is "Litterally Who?", that's not great for sales(Yes it happened with Terry, but wasn't he stupid popular in Brazil or the whole of South America or something like that?). I have serious doubts about how well sales of these characters would go.


Want: Triple 0%
The fact that these characters would take up a DLC slot is what makes me give them a 0%. If we were still in the base roster I'd have given them higher wants scores, but the fact that if they got in to Smash ultimate it would take up a paid DLC slot. Luckily for me, they're probably not in FP2 anyway. Would be happy to see them in SSB6.

Noms: Rocket League Rep x5


Also, does that overall LoL rep support thread count as a support thread for all LoL reps, or would I have to make one for each individual LoL rep I would want to rate in the future?
 
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Speed Weed

Smash Ace
Joined
May 16, 2020
Messages
626
Location
Portugal
Switch FC
SW-1814-1029-3514
comin' back just for this one

Chance for all of them: 1%
yes, they all get a 1 from me. they all share a lot of circumstances that more or less put them in the same situation, which is to say, very unlikely. all the things i'd have to say about them in terms of chances i'd honestly only apply to them getting in future games, and i try to look at rtc as a current thing so right now in terms of fighter pass 2 i think they are absolutely dead.

now for the wants

Lip: 50%
eh, to be completely honest i'm neutral on her.

Mach Rider: 70%
i'd actually really like mach rider. i think they have a lot of potential for a pit-style brand new coat of paint in a future smash based on what little we've seen of them.

Takamaru: 100%
YES. PLEASE. GIMME.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
7,981
Triple Trouble Retro Round-Up

Abstaining on chance for Takamaru, however, I will mention that there's many factors that make his chances pretty good for what they are:

- His game finally got an international release, so he's no longer Japanese exclusive (the stated reason for his exclusion in 4)
- Nintendo seems to love this game, giving it tons of cameos and references, like Mario Maker 2 and Nintendo Land. It's seen as a classic and as Zelda's sister game in Japan
- Japanese devs also seem to really like it, with both Platinum's Kamiya and Grasshopper's Suda expressing strong interest in rebooting it. For that reason, I think there's a good chance that someone will successfully pitch a new game to Nintendo and it'll make a comeback
- He was pretty popular in the Smash 4 days, and crucially in the Ballot period, so that could be taken into account
- He's been previously considered multiple times for Smash already

With all that taken into account, I have no doubt that, had this game featured a number of newcomers comparable to other games, Takamaru would be in as the resident retro rep. And he's the frontrunner for the spot in future Smash games.

Want: 100%
Takamaru would be kickass, the weapons he uses in his game are all awesome and super unique, plus we don't have a samurai five games in. Murasame Castle is simply a fantastic game, so I'd like to see it given the Smash love.

Lip

Chance: 15%
Yeah, this is high, and it's mostly because of Panel de Pon's miraculous international release. Compare that to other games that remained console exclusive like Fire Emblem 1, StarTropics, Famicom Wars, and Joy Mech Fight (at the very least, the last one could have been released untranslated). It's nowhere near a guarantee of a future for the series, mind you, but it's incredibly notable coming on the heels of stuff like Lip and PdP's presence in Animal Crossing and her Mii Costume in Smash. There's a tendency towards notoriety for the series, and while it might just be Nintendo softening on references for such an old title, can't shake the thought that something else is in the works. Pretty much hinges on that though.

Want: 100%
I love Panel de Pon, it's a great game and I recommend that anyone with NSO give it a shot. It's got a cute retro anime aesthetic and it stands out because of that, and the gameplay is super addictive. Lip, as a puzzle game rep, has the potential to bring a super unique moveset, plus flesh out PdP representation (particularly music and Spirits, there's great music and character designs).

Mach Rider

Chance: 5%
Mach Rider's best shot is if Nintendo wanted to get the Grinch Leak cast in Smash because they noticed its popularity. Aside from that, it ain't great. Mach Rider is a classic, no doubt, but it lacks the popularity of choices like Takamaru or even Ayumi Tachibana, and Balloon Fighter also wins in the iconic department. Simply put, Mach Rider is a contender for the retro rep, but not the strongest contender. Though I think she might have also been considered for Melee? If so, bonus points for that.

Want: 100%
Mach Rider in Smash would be the coolest thing ever. Captain Falcon meets Mad Max on steroids, bikes, laser machineguns and disassembling bikers, a moveset based on Mach Rider has a lot to use. I want to see a modern Mach Rider redesign, maybe even answer the question of their gender (personally I see her as a woman and it'd be cool to have a badass biker lady duking it out in Smash). And, honestly, to me Smash will never feel complete without the Grinch gang, sorry but that's just the better timeline, fight me.

Noms: Jason & SOPHIA x5 (I'm going to try and save some characters from the purge but it's all contingent on Tidus keeping his position)

Chorus Kids prediction: 18.32%
Karate Joe prediction: 13.55%
Rhythm Girl prediction: 10.1%
Takamaru's The Mysterious Murasame Castle was last seen as a re-release on the GBA in 2004, but much like the original, only in Japan. There has never been an international release of his game. Panel De Pon/Puzzle League/Tetris Attack is admittedly less dead than the other 2. It has multiple spin offs using other Nintendo franchises as the theme (Pokemon and Animal Crossing). The Panel De Pon wiki says she was in the Pokemon one, I have no idea about the AC version though. I'm still going to count it as a dead franchise but TBH I really don't friggen know.
Since you seem to count re-releases, Mach Rider and Murasame got Virtual Console releases in 2014, and Panel de Pon got on NSO just this year. All international releases.
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,162
Location
New Jersey
Retrio

I will give Mach Rider a 0%, Takamaru a 1%, and Lip a 5% in chance each. However, for all of them it's pretty much the same reason: these are characters Nintendo likely won't really do anything major with in the future. Takamaru and Lip at least have requests in some regard (but I don't think it's enough to outweigh their issues), and Lip did get her game released in the west in May, but unlike say Arle we know exactly why Panel de Pon got in over Tetris Attack (it's all in the name. Tetris Attack uses the Tetris name, and isn't allowed to be released since it isn't a Tetris game). Still, they at least have something, Mach Rider had nothing going for her until she was dragged into that event. You know the one. But either way it doesn't matter, because they still are lacking in true, proper advantages on any real regard. They have nothing to promote and haven't seen the light of day in a long, long time. To be blunt, these guys aren't happening as DLC. I don't think Nintendo considers them hot enough to be worth putting in.

I couldn't care less if Mach Rider or Takamaru happened so I'll abstain on want for them. But more NES retro reps really aren't my thing at this point. There's more console generations that are old than just the Family Computer and Nintendo Entertainment System, thank you.

Lip: 45%. Partially because I doubt she can coexist with Arle and, in that case I'll take the series that hasn't been stripped of its characters worldwide in its final entry 15 years ago. Otherwise, Lip would be a SNES retro rep when the NES gets all the love in Smash, and the N64 walked away with Banjo while GameCube onward debatable counts (and Wii U onwards certainly doesn't). So can the SNES get a little love? The last SNES original franchise I could think of getting in was F-Zero back in Smash 64, everything else debuted in a series older or younger than that (or on a handheld).

Frisk x 5. All of the Rhythm Heaven team are getting the same prediction score: 16.40%.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
932
Lip

Chance: 3% - Mainly being talked about again due to the NSO release, though she shares this with Arle so it isn't something special for her, along with the game continuing to remain untranslated. While New Leaf did reference the franchise directly, and she's fared better than someone like Mach Rider, her series' future is still up in the air. This could more than likely end up meaning nothing, especially since Takamaru's game in Nintendo Land didn't suddenly cause a Murasame Castle resurgence. She does have a decent amount of fan demand but there's bigger first parties that Nintendo would likely prioritize.

Furthermore, when Nintendo does their "what the ****" retro picks, it's ALWAYS NES or older. Melee had Ice Climbers and Game & Watch, Brawl had Pit and ROB (though the latter appeared in Mario Kart DS a couple of years prior as an unlockable driver), and Smash 4 had Duck Hunt. They love to shill the NES, and with Lip being an SNES character, she may very well be skipped over by Nintendo's nostalgia goggles.

Want: 15% - While she has a lot of potential, there are other first parties I'd rather see first. Furthermore, I did play her game on NSO and while I thought it was alright, puzzle games aren't really my thing. So I'd be pretty much neutral to her inclusion.


Takamaru

Chance: 4% - Unlike Lip, Takamaru's an NES character, so he very much has a chance in a future game as the surprise NES retro pick. Furthermore, he does have some western exposure himself with one of his games being released on VC worldwide, along with his Ninteod Land game and various nods in other Nintendo media. However, the advantages stop there. Sakurai specifically stated that Takamaru wasn't well known enough outside of Japan to be part of the roster (and that he wants to avoid situations like that going forward), and alongside that he's been an assist trophy for two straight games along with being a Mii Costume now. Like Lip, he certainly is gaining some ground internationally but he'll more than likely be passed over for bigger characters, especially in a period of paid DLC. I'd give him a bigger score if this were prerelease speculatin but I don't expect him as paid DLC.

Want: 20% - I'd be interested in seeing a Katana user, and I did really enjoy his minigame in Nintendo Land. Though overall I'm pretty neutral on him since I've never played any of his games.


Gonna abstain on Mach Rider, though he has many of the same disadvantages as the other two without the same level of fan demand. Surprised he was chosen for the Grinch Leak.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Chorus Kids - 10.43%
Karate Joe - 15.73%
Rhythm Girl - 2.68%

Expecting all of them to get decent scores despite Rhythm Heaven's current dormancy, and expecting Karate Joe to get the highest score (due to being the de facto mascot) and the Chorus Kids to get a decent score due to their fan demand.
 
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