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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
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Dec 10, 2013
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TCT~Phantom
Doomguy

50% Chance

I am gonna be real, I do not buy into the interview much tbh. If they said too much, they would break NDA, and that is no good. It is still a blow to him though. I am really on the fence with this one. Doom is legendary as h*ll, pun intended. It is one of the grandaddies of FPS games. H*ll, once again pun intended, Sakurai basically said that with his praise of John Carmack. I especially think he has a shot if there is a third season, but for this season I am not certain.

100% Want

This is mainly for the soundtrack, Doom has some good tunes. That being said, having the grandaddy of FPS games in Smash would be awesome. I also love the idea of playing as him, movement in doom is such a treat!

Dragonborn

20% Chance

Less so that Doomguy but still a good choice. Skyrim is one of the biggest games of the 2010s, which would help their case. That being said, I would argue Doomguy is more likely and that is kinda a blow. That being said, being the WRPG of the 2010s helps its case a lot.

20% Want

Getting that main theme would be sweet, but I just do not think the Dragonborn would be as fun to play as. Toss in the fact that I do not have the same attachment to Skyrim that most people do, and you have a character I am not big on per say.


Nominating Boss Rush x 5
 

Ender1645

Smash Cadet
Joined
Dec 8, 2019
Messages
57
Doomguy/Slayer
Chance: 45%
I feel like he has a good chance to become a fighter. I know others mention an interview but I believe in the end it doesn’t mean that much not just because of NDA, but also of articles talking about Banjo’s development and how it went through Microsoft first then Rare. Marty is a main dude of ID but not of Bethesda. The Mii costume shows that they did talk once, so that made me more optimistic about him. What else would they have in store for Bethesda content?

Want: 100%
I... Love... Doom. One of my most favorite franchises and the perfect candidate for a genre that has no fighter representation in Smash. Seeing Doom spirits and music too can be cool!

Dragonborn
Chance: 35%
- The Mii costume argument also goes for them too as well as the Slayer. But I honestly can’t think that Nintendo or Sakurai wants them more. Doom has a larger presence on Nintendo Systems and the Doom slayer is actually one defined character and not a slate like Dragonborn where there are many possibilities for what they could be. I feel like the Iron armor in Skyrim could be a neat Mii costume, as I feel the armor is more iconic of the game/franchise.

Want: 20%
- If they get in it obviously goes against Doom slayer, who I really want. As well as the fact that they would be another RPG rep and there is too many of those. Also I feel like Doom deserves more recognition as a Bethesda franchise than the Elder Scrolls or Fallout. As Doom and ID software is a lot more respected among fans.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,518
Location
Drenthe, NL
What if Doomguy and Isabelle were besties? Wholesome 100
Chance: 0.1%
I really don't think NDA still applies when Id software admitted they weren't approached. .1% in case of a white lie but I doubt it. With FPS's not being popular in Japan and how in your face violent and gory the Doom series is I don't find it surprising Nintendo wouldn't gravitate towards Doomguy.


want: 15%
Doomguy would certainly be unique and while I do find him to be a bit circlejerky in speculation, I wouldn't have many qualms with him. At this point my want regarding western third-parties has become very specific so I'm still docking points for competition.


I was at the chessclub
Chance: 12%
I don't actually think the Vault boy costume affects much since I've expressed I don't think the Ubisoft costumes do either. Skyrim does have things going for it, being important enough to be shown in the Switch reveal and being a generally famous videogame. Competition will naturally be a problem, especially for western IPs, but this is one of the few to keep an eye on.


Want: Abstaining

Dante: 51.67%
Phoenix: 42.77%
Hayabusa: 55.36%
Magolor x5
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Alright, I guess we're doing this now.

Doomed Lad

Chance: 0%
I don't see it. Between the developer interview from a while back - where I'm pretty sure it wasn't actually the interviewer who brought up the subject of Smash, but rather the developer - and the Vault Boy Mii custome coming with Min Min, I don't see us getting any kind of Bethesda rep. Not to mention, a distinct lack of popularity in Japan also doesn't help his case.

Want: 0%
I usually abstain on these kinds of character that I have no personal experience with, but. . . sorry, I just really don't want this kind of character in Smash. I don't want him.

"In their language, he's called. . . Todd Howard!"

Chance: 0%
I see the Vault Boy Mii costume as a death sentence here. If we had gotten an actual Bethesda rep in this pass, then this costume would've been held back for when we get that, and not come with a completely unrelated first-party character.

Want: 1%
This would be entertaining for the ensuing "Todd Howard ported Skyrim to Smash Bros.!" jokes, but I don't see an appeal beyond that. Not interested.

Predicting Dante to get around 41.63%
Predicting Phoenix Wright to get around 23.74%
Predicting Ryu Hayabusa to get around 56.29%

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.
 
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Sari

Editing Staff
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Messages
4,436
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Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Doomguy

Chance: 0.01%
The Metro interview from January still stands, where the developer of Doom basically said "Nintendo never asked us about Doomguy for Smash." If he had just given a generic answer like "we hope it happens" then I don't think it'd mean much, but he went out of his way to talk about all they've been through in regards to Smash so I think he's telling the truth. The CacoMallow "leak" (which was bogus from day 1) is also 100% dead now so Doomguy has little to rely on for his Smash chances. Also we just got the Vault Boy Mii Costume which I think hurts the chances of us getting a playable Bethesda character for this pass (more on this in the Dragonborn rating). I'll be generous and give Doomguy a 0.01% chance in the event a miracle happens but I doubt it at this rate.

Want: Abstain
I haven't really gotten into the series yet so I won't comment. I'll probably change that tomorrow with the Steam Summer Sale in less than a day.

-----

Dragonborn

Chance: 7.5%
I personally believe that if a company gets a brand new Mii Costume for this Fighters Pass that it hurts the chances of them getting a playable character (unless the costume releases with the playable character of course). To me, the Mii Costume says "we couldn't work out a deal for a character but we were able to get this." I'm not sure how Ubisoft would be affected by this since they got AC/Rabbids Mii Costumes at the end of FP1, but to me the Vault Boy costume at the start of FP2 greatly hurts the chances of a Bethesda rep.

Granted I'm not too confident in this theory since we got a Virtua Fighter costume with Terry's release instead of Joker's, but that could've been since they were fighting game themed. I feel that it would've been perfect to release the Vault Boy costume with another Bethesda character instead of randomly by themselves where they didn't fit in at all with the others.

So right now I think Dragonborn is the most likely Bethesda character to become playable. Skyrim was one of the most popular games of the last decade and Doomguy is seemingly out of the running. Maybe they even showed off the deluxe Vault Boy costume now so they'll release Dragonborn with a deluxe Doomguy costume or something. But Bethesda being Western and the Vault Boy costume still might be hurdles for their inclusion.

Want: Abstain
Didn't get far into Skyrim so I won't give a score.

-----

Chance predictions:
Dante: 45.00%
Hayabusa: 55.00%
Phoenix: 45.00%

Nominations:
Time to whip out this new one concept I thought of:

Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Before I get to my ratings, I'm going to say that I will be abstaining on a lot of these ratings since my opinion on a lot of these characters has not changed at all. I will still participate on certain days that include my most wanted characters and characters that I believe have been affected by Min Min's inclusion.

_________

At Smash's Gate

Chance: 10%

Unfortunately that interview seems pretty damming to me. The guy went into so much detail, to the point where I don't think this is a Grant Kirkhope situation. If he was under NDA, he would have tried to be more passive and push the subject under the rug. BUT, I do have some hope because I saw people earlier today talk about the conversation between Nintendo and Microsoft for putting Banjo into Smash and what's interesting is that Nintendo seemed to approach Microsoft before they talked to Rare. The guy from the interview was from ID, not Bethesda. So it's possible that Doomguy is in, but the interviewee was not made aware of it yet and of course this still could be an elaborate Kirkhope situation, despite my concerns.

Otherwise, Vault Boy makes me more confident since Bethesda now has a leg in the door and Doom has certainly enough potential to get into Smash. It's the granddaddy of FPS games, the one that popularized the genre. He has a variety of weapons to make for an interesting moveset and his popularity and fan demand has sprung up in recent years. His only big hurdles are him being a western character and FPS games are not popular in Japan. He might be competing with Master Chief, but seeing as we got 3 JRPG characters in the first pass, I don't think this would be an issue, despite again FPS games not being as popular as RPGS in the east.

Overall, if I knew that the interview did not deconfirm him, my score would shot right up. He is one of the only roughly handful of western characters that I can see having a realistic shot.


Want: 100%

One of my most wanted characters!

Badass moveset potential
Badass music
Badass design
Badass stage potential with a variety of enemies...

He just would be an insanely cool character. I love Doom and I want Doomguy in Smash right now. He would be a quick zoner who is a glass cannon. I don't think we have too many of that in Smash so seeing something like this would be interesting. Of course I'm probably forgetting someone.

_____________

Fus Ro Dah!!

Chance: 60%

My opinion on Dragonborn hasn't changed, aside from a little confidence boost thanks to Vault Boy. I wrote a big post for him last time but I don't feel like finding it so I will summarize my points:
  • Skyrim is very popular, fairly requested, and is still being discussed almost a decade later.
  • Skyrim was one of the first games shown off for the Switch and Bethesda has been supporting Nintendo a lot since the Switch's release.
  • The Elder Scrolls is an iconic and significant game franchise. It helped popularize the open world genre.
  • The developers of BOTW took some cues from Skyrim.
  • Skyrim was the first western game to receive a perfect 40/40 in Famitsu.
  • Dragonborn has a recognizable look with his nordic armor across the marketing.
  • He also has interesting moveset potential with his shouts and spells.
  • Plenty of stage and spirits options.
Overall, I think Dragonborn is the most likely Bethesda character. Again, assuming that Doom interview deconfirms Doomguy. But if not, I would have probably given them both a 50% honestly. Bethesda is one of the couple western companies that I can see getting a rep.


Want: 80%

While I would prefer Doomguy, Dragonborn would be awesome too. He has spells that resurrects skeletons and makes them fight for you, heals himself, he can use ice spikes and storm, invisibility, thunder, defense boosts, etc. He would be similar to Hero except for a bigger focus on melee since you can dual wield and offensive as well as defensive spells. Heck, looking at what happened with Min Min, Sakurai might do something like giving you the option to switch between either full-on spell mode, dual wield weapons mode, or having a melee weapon in one hand and casting spells with the other, just like in Skyrim. Thinking about this, it would be dope.

Skyrim is a beautiful game with great music and plenty of personality and details they can fit into a stage. Plus you know...

Fus ro Dahing opponents off the stage.


Predictions:
Dante, Ryu Hayabusa and Phoenix - 50% for all

Noms: Ezio x5
 
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Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Doomguy
Chance: 1%
The interview abuot the develpoers of Doom saying to Nintendo that they would want Doomguy for Smash kinda kills it a lot or me, but there's still a chance, even if slim.
Want: 40%
FPS are not my thing, but that music is great, and I saw some cool concepts online.

Dragonborn
Chance: 20%
He's possible, as Skyrim is kinda big, even in Japan, and one of the games Nintendo promoted at the launch of the Switch. And of course the Link costume. But he's still a western character, which is not too good for him.
Want: 35%
He's cool, and the Fush-Ro-Da (did I spell that right?) in Smash would be great. But honestly, he does not interest me that much. He's still fine, I guess.

Predictions
Phoenix Wright: 21.8%
Dante: 61.4%
Hayabusa: 53.7%
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Doomguy - double 0

The interview is pretty damning. Others have said what I wanted to say on that matter so I won't elaborate. As for want, I've never been a fan of FPS. I can play them but they're not much fun to me. Might have to do with derpy mouses.

Dovahkiin - double 0

Vault Boy getting in is Smash's nod to Bethesda. If Bethesda did have a rep, then Nintendo would've asked another company, not double dip with one. As for want, I tried to get into Skyrim, I never could. And from where I stand, other reps could give us a concept similar enough for me not to be bothered by the lack of shouting dragon boi (emphasis on "enough", they wouldn't be copy pasta).

Predictions:
Dante - 50%
Hayabusa - 30%
Phoenix - 45%

Nominations: concept: new ATs as one new item x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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Aug 21, 2014
Messages
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New York
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TomOfHyrule
Haven't been around in a while, but I felt I needed to put this up. I'll talk about both together though, since they really overlap a lot.

Bethesda's got a few properties, but there are really three major ones: DOOM (acquired from id*), Fallout (acquired from Interplay), and The Elder Scrolls (homegrown). It's a decently large publisher, getting entire dedicated E3 conferences to itself, but it's not a console maker like Sony or Microsoft. I suppose if anything, they're on the level of someone like Ubisoft.
*okay, technically id is a subsidiary of Zenimax, so DOOM isn't technically Bethesda Studios like the other two are, but 'Bethesda's' E3 conferences are really Bethesda Softworks which is the parent of Zenimax.

Now as to their association with Nintendo? That's a lot less evident. Bethedsa's really not had anything to do with Nintendo until the Switch released. Yes, DOOM was on the SNES, Doom II made it to GBA, and DOOM 64 was on the N64. All of that was before acquisition. After acquisition, DOOM 2016 and Eternal were multiplat, including the Switch. TES had nothing to do with Nintendo until Skyrim got ported to the Switch, but it really was put pretty high on a pedestal there. Still, that's about it for the franchise, aside from the mobile spinoff Blades that released last month and the card game spinoff Legends which has its multiplat console ports sitting in limbo. Fallout has the least presence on Nintendo, with only one mobile spinoff (Shelter) on Switch and that's it.

Or at least that was it, until Monday.

So first, the candidates:

Doomguy's got a lot of history, and is one of the defining series of the FPS genre. It's practically a meme to run DOOM on literally any device. It's also got an enormous fanbase that can easily shout down most others that get discussed here. But that's also a very localized fanbase - DOOM's very heavy on the 'Western (American)'-favored ideas of blood, gore, and being a total badass. DOOM also has the benefit of recency, as Eternal just released, spawning a new meme with Isabelle since AC:NH released the same day. Of course, there's also the interview...but that could also be NDA speak...

Dovahkiin's only from a single game, and it's an RPG that's close to a decade old. However, it's not as if TES isn't groundbreaking itself - every other RPG (and even some other games, like Zelda: BotW) is open world because of the influence of Skyrim. It should be noted that the Switch announcement trailer used mainly two games to show off its capabilities: BotW, and... Skyrim. Heck, Skyrim's Swithc port even threw in Zelda BotW gear and gave an extra customization so you could make a playable character who looked like Link. It's also not like Skyrim (and the franchise) isn't also a fountain of memes as well. And based on the most accurate reporting from Wikipedia (/s), while the DOOM franchise is coming in over 17 million sales across all of its main series games, Skyrim alone is reporting upwards of 22-30 million sales worldwide, never mind the rest of the franchise. Also worth noting is that Skyrim is the first Western game to have gotten a perfect score on Famitsu, something only 25 other games (and one other Western game, GTA:V have done)

As to what each could bring to Smash:

There are several shooter characters in Smash, but none which hail from an FPS. DOOM's also got loads of options for different weapons that could be used. He would probably have to be toned down significantly to get in - it's not impossible since Bayo and Joker were able to be toned down, but even Pete Hines admits that the violence and blood is pretty well linked with DOOM as a theme. Again, there is a massive Western fanbase for Doomguy which has been active since DOOM 16's release on Switch, and it's only grown with DOOM Eternal's announcement and release. There may be some issues with religious themes involved in using 'hell' as a location, which Nintendo is eager to avoid, but Simon/Richter have shown that things like crosses or holy water are acceptable. His closest counterpart is probably Samus in terms of abilities and playstyle, and he also conflicts heavily in terms of look and theme of 'futuristic super-armored marine' with Master Chief as well.

I'm not well-versed in DOOM as a franchise, so I can't say what could be likely in terms of content in Smash, but monstrous bosses like Giga Bowser, Ganon, and Rathalos would fit well, as would the idea of Dracula and evil there. He's pretty well known for moves like the chainsaw that Kirby could easily take as a neutral special, and he's got a pretty obvious helmet.

Dovahkiin has a few more things keeping him similar with the current cast, for good or ill. There are several RPG protagonists in Smash, but all of them are from JRPGs; there's no representative from a true open-world Western-style RPG. Also he uses a sword, but isn't your typical anime swordsman from Fire Emblem. Skyrim's also 'M' rated, but the violence is on the level of things in the Zelda series - you can get gorier, but it's something that needs to be unlocked and is very easily divorced from the game. Still, he shares a lot of thematic overlap with Hero, especially if a gimmick with the three charge states is used, and also has some overlap with Robin as a fighter with some magic abilities.

Dovahkiin would fit almost perfectly with the current content in Smash though. The shouts are a meme of themselves, and make for a natural choice for specials, particularly FUS RO DAH. In game, this shout is designed to fling enemies backwards, preferably off cliffs. In Smash, the point of the game is to fling enemies off cliffs. There's a Dragon boss in Rathalos that would be almost too perfect for his classic mode, and his helmet (for Kirby) is iconic enough to rep the entire series at this point, to the extent that other Bethesda games are using it as an easter egg. As a bonus, there are also plenty of race/gender options as you would have in Skyrim, so it's easy to consider a Robin/Corrin/Byleth situation.

Phew...

So, the verdict?


Sovngarde's Hall of Valor, where Nord Heroes go when they die.

Bethesda's a Western company, and so far, the Western input in Smash is i) a handful of Spirits from Ubisoft and WayForward ii) three side characters from Nintendo franchises that were made to fill out those games when Nintendo got Western second-parties to make those games iii) a handful of indie 'premium spirits,' and iv) a DLC character from a company that used to be one of Nintendo's second parties before being bought out by Microsoft and the IP ending up languishing.

So not much of a hope for Western companies. More than there was before, but still not much. Also, the third parties in Smash are all either Nintendo-focused or exclusive like Bayonetta and Banjo*, or Sony focused or exclusive like Snake and Cloud. Things that lean closer to the PC/Xbox side like Bethesda's properties are not as favored (even though Bethesda's stuff is now leaning multiplat, they've traditionally been closer to the XBox side)
*Yes, Banjo is XBox now. Still, Banjo's popularity is not from Nuts and Bolts, it's from the old N64 stuff when he was a second party

And then there's the Deathclaw in the room:


Fallout's an interesting choice. To be honest, I always thought a Vault Boy Mii would be a perfect choice because of his proportions, and it really does look great. Interesting that they'd pick Vault 111 for this considering Fallout 4 hasn't gotten the port to Switch, but I'm also surprised that that hasn't happened yet. So why am I disappointed about it?

Now there are two ways to take this: either, "Oh look, they're willing to work with Bethesda! We have a character inbound!" or "Welp, I guess that's it for Bethesda representation, otherwise that Mii costume would come with the Bethesda character!" And I'm pretty far in the second camp here. We didn't get the Erdrick costumes with Joker, we didn't get the Nakoruru or Sazaki costumes with Banjo, etc. Maybe I could see some Capcom Miis getting in separately from the Capcom character, but that's just because of how big Capcom is. Bethesda's not got nearly as many options. It would have made perfect sense to bring in the Vault Boy Mii with one of these two as a character, so why wasn't it done?

I suppose that it's possible that they wanted to bring out Vault Boy with character #76 because of Fallout 76, ignoring the fact that this Vault Boy is from Fallout 4 becuase he's got 111 on his back and not 76, and that someone like Dovahkiin could come later with a bunch of fantasy swordsmen Miis like Gil/Lloyd/MonHun that we haven't seen yet, but....

...I've seen more persuasive arguments discussing how Sakurai's chairs mean Skull Kid's coming.

In short, it really looks like they went to Bethesda to get stuff the same way they went to Toby Fox and StudioMDHR. Get a Mii and done. I thought that the Altaïr and Rabbid costumes were the death blow of Rayman, and I think the same here. I don't like saying there's an absolute zero chance of things, and I think that based on the fanbases Doomguy has an edge (you can't go anywhere without hearing DOOM, meanwhile the Dovahkiin thread has just gotten to page 10, and almost half of the discussion is from about four users). I still think that that interview doesn't really mean much in terms of a solid no, but now we have seen BethSoft content. And I think that's it for what we're gonna get.

Now, as for the want score:

I'll start with Dovahkiin - he's my absolute #1 most wanted pie in the sky character. The Elder Scrolls series has been my favorite since Morrowind came out back in 2002. I love the whole Viking aesthetic, the stages could be absolutely gorgeous with arctic vistas and aurorae in the sky, and the music is phenomenal. It'd be great to see him and Simon trekking around like two barbarian heroes, or to cross blades with Link in recognition of the relationship between those games. I'd love to see Kirby put on the helmet and Shout "FUS RO DAH!" in his cute little voice.
I feel like the character would fit so well in Smash as the game is already set, and the options for a male and female protagonist with different races would also be great (I'd have to stick with the Orc dude the whole time though). It would also be a nod to the game's popularity and legacy.

On the other hand... you know when you're indifferent to a character, and then they keep getting shoved in your face? And you can't even turn around without seeing them? And you kinda start to resent that? And then people make it so that any discussion about the character you like is stifled because they only want to consider the one that's being talked about ad nauseam? And it really sets up a total "us versus them" mentality, and you realize how absolutely outnumbered you are? Yeah, that's where I am with Doomguy. Nothing against him personally, but I can't play FPSs to save my life, and I'm really not a fan of the music/themes/etc. of Doom. And going around loving Dovahkiin as much as I do only to get hit with "**** any Bethesda character that's not Doomguy!" really stings. Really. Add that to the fact that TESVI news is on hold, we're still waiting for info on the ESO DLC, but DOOM gets loads of anniversary events...the past year has made me so resentful of the series in general. Hard pass.

So in the end:

DOOMGUY: Chance 0.01%, want 0%
DOVAHKIIN: 0.001% want 100%

And just for fun, I'll leave it off with my Orc in ESO, cosplaying as my favorite character. Stay safe, and may Talos guide you.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Doom Guy
Chance: 0%
Doom Guy's creator came out and said he wasn't in. If he was on an NDA, he probably wouldn't be allowed to say that.

Want: 60%
Doom Guy is cool. I'd like to have him in the game


Dragonborn
Chance: 35%
Just gonna copy paste from my last rating of him

Not a lot has changed since last I rated him. At first I dropped his chance by 5% due to Byleth and Min Minmeaning 1st Parties can happen. However, with Doom Guy's deconfirmation, I'm giving him some chance score back. Skyrim is still a super loved game, so it's still possible.


Want: 50%
I don't know Dragonborn very well, but I can understand how big it could end up being if he got in. Dovahkiin really does sound like a too good to be true sort of thing though.

Noms: Alex Mason x5
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,271
Abstain. I feel like I should wait and see on this one. Maybe if we get another Western third party as DLC, but we still only know about Min Min, so I can't be very confident in this.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,841
Location
winnipeg
Doomguy

Chance: 25%. His chance is quite decent due to popularity, helping to bring shooter games to popularity, having a lot of games and being quite iconic. He is quite likely to show up, but just like Snake and Bayonetta, Doomguy is going to be toned down in the violence department.

Want: 65%. He would be fun to play as, with him having some deadly moves. While I can see him fight Bowser, Ridley and Ganondorf all on his own, I can also see him hanging around with Samus and Snake. Overall, he would be a fun addition to the roaster.

Dovakiin

Chance: 10%. While he is less likely to appear then Doomguy, Dovakiin would still have a slim chance of appear in this game. It's more likely that he will appear as a Spirit or Mii Costume, but it's better then nothing.

Want: 50%. He would be a fun character to play as on the other hand. But since I don't know all the information about Skyrim, I will cut my sentence short.

Predictions: Dante (20%), Ryu (20%) and Phoenix (15%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)
 

-crump-

Smash Champion
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Feb 12, 2015
Messages
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Pepperoni Secret
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Doom Guy/Slayer/Marine/Whatever

Chance: 2%
There’s dodging the question, and then there’s just straight up saying no. Pete Hines said no, they were not approached by Nintendo to put the Doom person in Smash. Beyond that, there’s the Fallout costume, which I have no reason to believe would be coming out with Min Min if there was a Bethesda character in the pipeline.

The only positive thing I can say about Doom’s chances in Smash is that he has fan demand, but that’s a recent bandwagon and almost entirely a western one. Hey, remember the last characters who were wildly popular in the western fanbase with little to no Japanese support? It took Ridley nearly two decades to make it in, and he’s owned by Nintendo. And you can bring up Banjo, that train had been running for years as well.

Want: 100%
DOOM has historical importance to gaming at large, continued relevance in gaming thanks to the two outstanding modern titles, and a pretty decent history with Nintendo. Slayer himself has a great design and plenty of potential for a cool moveset. Plus, I really like when Smash adds characters from wildly different genres and settings. I loooove weird crossovers.

_____________________________

Dragonborn

Chance and Want: Abstain

doubtful of his chances because of the Fallout costume, but I have little to no knowledge of Elder Scrolls so I can’t really be confident one way or another.

___________________________


Noms: Whichever character has the highest number of nominations by today’s end x5
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,208
Location
Georgia
Doomguy
Chance: 10%
Undoubtedly influential to the gaming history, which has even been acknowledged by Sakurai. Most of the reason I doubt him happening is Vault Boy's Mii Costume. There's a high chance Doom will end up only being represented with Spirits or a Mii Costume at this point, due to those being a possibly-more-realizable avenue towards representing Western franchises in Smash.
Want: 57%
Not really my most-wanted, but I would understand his inclusion. I think he provides a decent contrast to most of the roster. He's fairly inoffensive.

Dragonborn
Chance: 14%
Skyrim is another game that is, without a doubt, a huge deal in gaming. Since it's another Western franchise, I've got some doubts that he'll make it as a fully playable character. There's a good chance it'll be represented with Spirits or a Mii Costume.
Want: 57%
Not one of my most-wanteds, but I would understand his inclusion. A traditional Western-fantasy warrior would provide a nice contrast to the rest of the roster. To me he's mostly inoffensive, like Doomguy.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
He's Doomed. Geddit?

Chance: oof
If Doom's owner said no, then he's not in. That's... all that really needs to be said. Really, what else can I say?


Want: Abstain.
I REALLY don't know how to feel about Doomguy. On the one hand, it definitely has a lot of history about it, being the game who defined many of the tropes that make a third-person shooter (It is NOT, however, as one might think, the original First-person Shooter- the one commonly attributed to that is actually Wolfenstein 3D which released May 1992 as opposed to Doom's release in December 1993, though the two games were both made by Id Software), and his varied arsenal certainly would make for a possibly interesting moveset.


On the other hand, a lot of what makes Doom, well, Doom (as opposed to yet another third-person shooter), is the over-the-top violence of the series, much in the same way that over-the-top violence is what defines another series, and one I think Doomguy would be MUCH more at home in: Mortal Kombat, another series I don't know how to feel about for the EXACT same reasons. They're literally in the exact same spot. And while one could point to obscure ports like the GBA port of the original Doom to say Doom could work without the ultraviolence, that isn't the point. The series embraces the Ultraviolence as part of its identity- just look at Doom Eternal and how it handles the Ultraviolence- killing demons in extremely gory ways and being rewarded for it is an actual game mechanic- Glory Kills. As much as many would deny it, Ultraviolence is a big part of Doom's identity, which, I think, is the biggest obstacle Doomguy faces- he comes from a series which is RENOWNED for its gratuitous use of violence.

He's not impossible, but generally speaking I think Master Chief is more likely as an FPS rep just due to the sheer effort it would take to tone Doomguy down WITHOUT losing the essence of Doom.

I used to be an adventurer like you... then I took an arrow to the *shot for using a dead meme*
Chance/Want: Abstain.
Seeing the Vault Boy Costume just brings uncertainty as far as Dovahkiin is concerned. Though Skyrim as a game certainly does merit some form of representation.


Noms: Terrarian x5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Timothy Q. Doomguy

Chance: 0%
I had a feeling, given recent discussion, that people have forgotten that the devs of Doom literally said they weren't approached by Nintendo to have Doomguy in Smash. Given some scores I'm seeing, yeah, that's very much the case.

Want: abstain
I love classic Doom and hate modern Doom, so how much I'd want him depends on implementation. I don't think I'd even buy him if he were called Doom Slayer.

Finally awake

Chance: 20%
I wasn't ready to rate him so soon, I needed to get my thoughts sorted on what the Vault Boy Mii meant for his chances. So I've been reading other people's posts, and something DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire said convinced me. If I didn't think the Altair and Rabbid Mii Costumes hurt the odds of a Ubisoft rep (Ezio in my case), then Vault Boy doesn't hurt Dovahkiin's chances.

So, then, it's the same old story. Huge deal, historic even, iconic, Nintendo presence, but Western, etc etc etc.

Want: 90%

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Phoenix prediction: 40%
Dante: 58%
Hayabusa: 60%

Noms: Whichever character has the highest number of nominations by today’s end x5
Are concepts okay too? Because that's what's topping the list right now.
 

SargeAbernathy

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 2, 2018
Messages
100
Doomguy

Chance: 25%

DOOM's introduction to Japan wasn't spectacular admittedly. However, I don't think popularity is as big of a factor in this case. It's not so much about how popular DOOM was at the time, but how influential it became down the line. Doomguy's influence in gaming history is indisputable. It was the game that helped create the very term "First Person Shooter". Japan didn't get into the Doom craze like the West did, but they knew what the game was and today FPS is a huge market spanning the globe. If DOOM wanted to get in based on its influential place in history it can very well do that.

It's competition though is Master Chief. If you wanted to get an FPS representative in the game, then you'd have to consider Halo. That game was immensely popular, and much much MUCH more popular in Japan than Doom ever was.

I think there would be more weight to add Master Chief for this reason. Although I think DOOM could easily get in because of it's respected place in history .... Halo is what the Japanese audience would recognize and connect with better, Microsoft has a working relationship with Nintendo, and Halo Infinite is coming out this year. If I give Doomguy a liberal 25% .... then I'd give Master Chief a very healthy 40%.

Doomguy has a few things going for it: Vault Guy getting in as a costume gives Doomguy a point, maybe two. I know some people see the costume as a detriment. I don't see it that way. I see it as evidence that they at least talked. We don't know how in depth these talks were. This could've easily been the only agreement they came to. Or it could be the tip of the ice berg. I don't think costumes need to necessarily be packaged with the studio they came from.

DOOM also had a recent game. Which may be more to its favor than Halo Infinite. Halo might be TOO close to it's game's release date. Why distract players from Halo Infinite? Whereas DOOM: Annihilation was last year ... and a Smash character reveal would be welcomed to keep the game in the public consciousness.

Violence is also not as big of a detriment in my view either, but I still think violence hurts it anyway. DOOM can easily be "toned down" enough for the game, but the question is why would you bother ... when it's a lot easier to get Master Chief in with less toning down.

As for that interview? I've learned waaaaay to often to not take interviews at face value ... no matter HOW in depth or assertive those answers may appear. I read the interview, and there's just not enough for me to say that it deconfirms Doomguy. So, it wasn't a factor at all for me in Doomslayer's rating.

Want: 100%

It would be a great stage, character, and concept. It would be different from the other DLC.


Dragonborn

Chance: .001%

This is where the interview does comes into play. Even if it was a "Wouldn't it be cool" conversation, it resulted in Doomguy being suggested. Not Dragonborn.

Want: 4%

Doomguy is the better rep for Bethesda.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Dragonborn

Chance: .001%

This is where the interview does comes into play. Even if it was a "Wouldn't it be cool" conversation, it resulted in Doomguy being suggested. Not Dragonborn.
Huh? Wouldn't not being brought up in an interview like that actually help Dovahkiin? They talked about negotiations with Nintendo in that interview. If they did that and then brought up Dovahkiin that would be pretty damn close to breaking the NDA if not actually breaking it all together if he was picked but not revealed for Smash.
 
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Golden Icarus

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2013
Messages
1,109
Location
USA
Haven't been around in a while, but I felt I needed to put this up. I'll talk about both together though, since they really overlap a lot.

Bethesda's got a few properties, but there are really three major ones: DOOM (acquired from id*), Fallout (acquired from Interplay), and The Elder Scrolls (homegrown). It's a decently large publisher, getting entire dedicated E3 conferences to itself, but it's not a console maker like Sony or Microsoft. I suppose if anything, they're on the level of someone like Ubisoft.
*okay, technically id is a subsidiary of Zenimax, so DOOM isn't technically Bethesda Studios like the other two are, but 'Bethesda's' E3 conferences are really Bethesda Softworks which is the parent of Zenimax.

Now as to their association with Nintendo? That's a lot less evident. Bethedsa's really not had anything to do with Nintendo until the Switch released. Yes, DOOM was on the SNES, Doom II made it to GBA, and DOOM 64 was on the N64. All of that was before acquisition. After acquisition, DOOM 2016 and Eternal were multiplat, including the Switch. TES had nothing to do with Nintendo until Skyrim got ported to the Switch, but it really was put pretty high on a pedestal there. Still, that's about it for the franchise, aside from the mobile spinoff Blades that released last month and the card game spinoff Legends which has its multiplat console ports sitting in limbo. Fallout has the least presence on Nintendo, with only one mobile spinoff (Shelter) on Switch and that's it.

Or at least that was it, until Monday.

So first, the candidates:

Doomguy's got a lot of history, and is one of the defining series of the FPS genre. It's practically a meme to run DOOM on literally any device. It's also got an enormous fanbase that can easily shout down most others that get discussed here. But that's also a very localized fanbase - DOOM's very heavy on the 'Western (American)'-favored ideas of blood, gore, and being a total badass. DOOM also has the benefit of recency, as Eternal just released, spawning a new meme with Isabelle since AC:NH released the same day. Of course, there's also the interview...but that could also be NDA speak...

Dovahkiin's only from a single game, and it's an RPG that's close to a decade old. However, it's not as if TES isn't groundbreaking itself - every other RPG (and even some other games, like Zelda: BotW) is open world because of the influence of Skyrim. It should be noted that the Switch announcement trailer used mainly two games to show off its capabilities: BotW, and... Skyrim. Heck, Skyrim's Swithc port even threw in Zelda BotW gear and gave an extra customization so you could make a playable character who looked like Link. It's also not like Skyrim (and the franchise) isn't also a fountain of memes as well. And based on the most accurate reporting from Wikipedia (/s), while the DOOM franchise is coming in over 17 million sales across all of its main series games, Skyrim alone is reporting upwards of 22-30 million sales worldwide, never mind the rest of the franchise. Also worth noting is that Skyrim is the first Western game to have gotten a perfect score on Famitsu, something only 25 other games (and one other Western game, GTA:V have done)

As to what each could bring to Smash:

There are several shooter characters in Smash, but none which hail from an FPS. DOOM's also got loads of options for different weapons that could be used. He would probably have to be toned down significantly to get in - it's not impossible since Bayo and Joker were able to be toned down, but even Pete Hines admits that the violence and blood is pretty well linked with DOOM as a theme. Again, there is a massive Western fanbase for Doomguy which has been active since DOOM 16's release on Switch, and it's only grown with DOOM Eternal's announcement and release. There may be some issues with religious themes involved in using 'hell' as a location, which Nintendo is eager to avoid, but Simon/Richter have shown that things like crosses or holy water are acceptable. His closest counterpart is probably Samus in terms of abilities and playstyle, and he also conflicts heavily in terms of look and theme of 'futuristic super-armored marine' with Master Chief as well.

I'm not well-versed in DOOM as a franchise, so I can't say what could be likely in terms of content in Smash, but monstrous bosses like Giga Bowser, Ganon, and Rathalos would fit well, as would the idea of Dracula and evil there. He's pretty well known for moves like the chainsaw that Kirby could easily take as a neutral special, and he's got a pretty obvious helmet.

Dovahkiin has a few more things keeping him similar with the current cast, for good or ill. There are several RPG protagonists in Smash, but all of them are from JRPGs; there's no representative from a true open-world Western-style RPG. Also he uses a sword, but isn't your typical anime swordsman from Fire Emblem. Skyrim's also 'M' rated, but the violence is on the level of things in the Zelda series - you can get gorier, but it's something that needs to be unlocked and is very easily divorced from the game. Still, he shares a lot of thematic overlap with Hero, especially if a gimmick with the three charge states is used, and also has some overlap with Robin as a fighter with some magic abilities.

Dovahkiin would fit almost perfectly with the current content in Smash though. The shouts are a meme of themselves, and make for a natural choice for specials, particularly FUS RO DAH. In game, this shout is designed to fling enemies backwards, preferably off cliffs. In Smash, the point of the game is to fling enemies off cliffs. There's a Dragon boss in Rathalos that would be almost too perfect for his classic mode, and his helmet (for Kirby) is iconic enough to rep the entire series at this point, to the extent that other Bethesda games are using it as an easter egg. As a bonus, there are also plenty of race/gender options as you would have in Skyrim, so it's easy to consider a Robin/Corrin/Byleth situation.

Phew...

So, the verdict?


Sovngarde's Hall of Valor, where Nord Heroes go when they die.

Bethesda's a Western company, and so far, the Western input in Smash is i) a handful of Spirits from Ubisoft and WayForward ii) three side characters from Nintendo franchises that were made to fill out those games when Nintendo got Western second-parties to make those games iii) a handful of indie 'premium spirits,' and iv) a DLC character from a company that used to be one of Nintendo's second parties before being bought out by Microsoft and the IP ending up languishing.

So not much of a hope for Western companies. More than there was before, but still not much. Also, the third parties in Smash are all either Nintendo-focused or exclusive like Bayonetta and Banjo*, or Sony focused or exclusive like Snake and Cloud. Things that lean closer to the PC/Xbox side like Bethesda's properties are not as favored (even though Bethesda's stuff is now leaning multiplat, they've traditionally been closer to the XBox side)
*Yes, Banjo is XBox now. Still, Banjo's popularity is not from Nuts and Bolts, it's from the old N64 stuff when he was a second party

And then there's the Deathclaw in the room:


Fallout's an interesting choice. To be honest, I always thought a Vault Boy Mii would be a perfect choice because of his proportions, and it really does look great. Interesting that they'd pick Vault 111 for this considering Fallout 4 hasn't gotten the port to Switch, but I'm also surprised that that hasn't happened yet. So why am I disappointed about it?

Now there are two ways to take this: either, "Oh look, they're willing to work with Bethesda! We have a character inbound!" or "Welp, I guess that's it for Bethesda representation, otherwise that Mii costume would come with the Bethesda character!" And I'm pretty far in the second camp here. We didn't get the Erdrick costumes with Joker, we didn't get the Nakoruru or Sazaki costumes with Banjo, etc. Maybe I could see some Capcom Miis getting in separately from the Capcom character, but that's just because of how big Capcom is. Bethesda's not got nearly as many options. It would have made perfect sense to bring in the Vault Boy Mii with one of these two as a character, so why wasn't it done?

I suppose that it's possible that they wanted to bring out Vault Boy with character #76 because of Fallout 76, ignoring the fact that this Vault Boy is from Fallout 4 becuase he's got 111 on his back and not 76, and that someone like Dovahkiin could come later with a bunch of fantasy swordsmen Miis like Gil/Lloyd/MonHun that we haven't seen yet, but....

...I've seen more persuasive arguments discussing how Sakurai's chairs mean Skull Kid's coming.

In short, it really looks like they went to Bethesda to get stuff the same way they went to Toby Fox and StudioMDHR. Get a Mii and done. I thought that the Altaïr and Rabbid costumes were the death blow of Rayman, and I think the same here. I don't like saying there's an absolute zero chance of things, and I think that based on the fanbases Doomguy has an edge (you can't go anywhere without hearing DOOM, meanwhile the Dovahkiin thread has just gotten to page 10, and almost half of the discussion is from about four users). I still think that that interview doesn't really mean much in terms of a solid no, but now we have seen BethSoft content. And I think that's it for what we're gonna get.

Now, as for the want score:

I'll start with Dovahkiin - he's my absolute #1 most wanted pie in the sky character. The Elder Scrolls series has been my favorite since Morrowind came out back in 2002. I love the whole Viking aesthetic, the stages could be absolutely gorgeous with arctic vistas and aurorae in the sky, and the music is phenomenal. It'd be great to see him and Simon trekking around like two barbarian heroes, or to cross blades with Link in recognition of the relationship between those games. I'd love to see Kirby put on the helmet and Shout "FUS RO DAH!" in his cute little voice.

I feel like the character would fit so well in Smash as the game is already set, and the options for a male and female protagonist with different races would also be great (I'd have to stick with the Orc dude the whole time though). It would also be a nod to the game's popularity and legacy.

On the other hand... you know when you're indifferent to a character, and then they keep getting shoved in your face? And you can't even turn around without seeing them? And you kinda start to resent that? And then people make it so that any discussion about the character you like is stifled because they only want to consider the one that's being talked about ad nauseam? And it really sets up a total "us versus them" mentality, and you realize how absolutely outnumbered you are? Yeah, that's where I am with Doomguy. Nothing against him personally, but I can't play FPSs to save my life, and I'm really not a fan of the music/themes/etc. of Doom. And going around loving Dovahkiin as much as I do only to get hit with "**** any Bethesda character that's not Doomguy!" really stings. Really. Add that to the fact that TESVI news is on hold, we're still waiting for info on the ESO DLC, but DOOM gets loads of anniversary events...the past year has made me so resentful of the series in general. Hard pass.

So in the end:

DOOMGUY: Chance 0.01%, want 0%
DOVAHKIIN: 0.001% want 100%

And just for fun, I'll leave it off with my Orc in ESO, cosplaying as my favorite character. Stay safe, and may Talos guide you.
Been a while since I’ve lurked here. Funny that it’s the day we rate Dragonborn again, so I get to be blessed with this masterful post.

I really couldn’t have said any of this better myself. If I were to add anything, I would say that I am a bit more optimistic (perhaps irrationally) about Vault Boy being the nail in the coffin. Nintendo can be pretty silly when it comes to timing, so I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if they still had more Bethesda content on the way. I feel the same way towards Ubisoft and Rayman. I, and most others, thought that ARMS was done since we got Spirits from it and Spring Man as an assist but then three years after ARMS release BAM - Min Min. Still, like I said this is probably irrational thinking. Dragonborn and Rayman are two of my dream picks so I’m gonna reach for an excuse to have hope.

I’m gonna give both Doomguy and Dragonborn a 1% in chance. They’re both still totally possible, just not worth holding our breath for.

Want
Dragonborn - 100%
He’s a dream pick. Skyrim is probably my single most played game. I bought it on the 360 and played it daily for what felt like years. Later I bought it on the Xbox One to have some fun with mods, then on PC to have even more fun with mods, then on PS4 to experience it in VR, then on the Switch to have the vanilla experience once again. I’m a damn sucker for this game, so having it crossover with my favorite thing in the world would be a dream.
Doomguy - 10%
He looks like he could be fun, but he’s definitely not a big personal pick.
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
This is where the interview does comes into play. Even if it was a "Wouldn't it be cool" conversation, it resulted in Doomguy being suggested. Not Dragonborn.
It was an interview with a Doom director working for ID Software, responding to the question "What about the rumours of Doom Slayer being in Smash Bros.?"? Unless we're talking about two different interviews, I have no idea how you expect he would say anything but "Wouldn't it be cool for Doomguy to be in Smash"...
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Concept: A person of color x135
The Stretchers x120
Tidus x120
D.Va x115
Moogle x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Nate Adams x105
Alex Mason x105

100 - 51

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x96
[Rerate] Frisk x85
Shuichi Saihara x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Red (Angry Birds) x80
Proto Man x75
Fulgore x74
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x61
[Rerate] Ezio x55
Echo: Xion (Sora) x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Sakura Shinguji x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
Concept: More ATs as one new item x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Urbosa x30
Giygas x30
Billy Hatcher x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Concept: Deltarune content x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Riptor x15
The Bard (Wandersong) x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
[Rerate] Maxwell x10
Chell x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Klonoa x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
Concept
: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Tidus blitzes past D.Va and ties with The Stretchers for second place. Moogle ties with D.Va for fourth. Nate Adams and Alex Mason both cross 100 noms.

Ezio and Echo: Xion climb past 50 noms.

Joining the list, we have a rerate of Maxwell (with 10 noms), rerates of Monster Hunter and Concept: Boss Rush (both with 5), and Kazuya Mishima (also with 5).

Sid-cada Sid-cada Lip's on the fixed schedule, so you have to pick someone else to nominate.

This is where the interview does comes into play. Even if it was a "Wouldn't it be cool" conversation, it resulted in Doomguy being suggested. Not Dragonborn.
This doesn't make a lick of sense. If they were telling the truth in the interview (which they were, but you're in denial), then of course they'd bring up Doomguy and not Dovahkiin. They're the Doom devs. Why would the Doom devs go "oh, Dovahkiin in Smash would be cool"? Hell, they wouldn't even be aware if Bethesda had been approached for Dovahkiin in Smash.

Doomguy is the better rep for Bethesda.
The character Bethesda didn't create is a better rep than the one they did? That's quite the statement.
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Doomguy

Chance - 0.1% - The interview was fairly damning, all but saying he isn't in. While their is a small chance things have changed sense then, overall it's enough for me to almost disqualify the guy.

Want - 75% - I can respect DOOM's legacy, and would be fine with him in. He's the right mix of interesting, iconic, and notable in my eyes.


Dragonborn

Chance - 0.5% - While we don't have a direct confirmation on his chances, that costume is pretty good evidence. It's hard to think why they would show him now and not wait for his parent company for this costume. I don't think so.

Want - 35% - Not interested. Like I said before, open world stuff is not my thing.


Nominations

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 I'll move my stuff to a Monster Hunter rerate. That would give me ten for this, right?

Monster Hunter X10
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,614
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Doom

Chance: 0.1%

The interview with his creators killed his chances tbh. I don't really see him happening after that. There's also the Fallout costume, I feel like it would have come with the DOOM reveal if he was in.

Want: 10%

Meh, I'll be happy for his fans, but he's not one of my personal wants. I'm fine with his legacy even if I don't have a connection to his games.

Skyrim

Chance: 0.1%

Yeah, same as DOOM, they would have revealed the Fallout costume with this character if they were in. I wouldn't be holding my breath.

Want: 10%

Same as DOOM, don't really have any connection to the series nor any desire to see it in Smash. Would mostly be indifferent, but happy for their fans.
 
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Playstation Guy 1000

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 22, 2019
Messages
359
Doomguy
Chance 30%:while he's still likely due to fan demand and the vault boy mii costume brings some higher chance for him, the January interview hurt his chances down.
Want 60%:I don't mind doomguy since he has a highly requested character and he does have an arsenal of good weapons.
abstain on Dovahkin.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,112
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Doomguy:
Chance: 1%

I think the interview is pretty damning honestly. I get that if it was happening they'd have to keep quiet about it but it's strange they'd talk in absolutes.

Doom's a series that everyone jumped on last year as a likely series to be added but even then I couldn't understand why.
First person shooters are far from popular in Japan, violent and gory games aren't as popular there as they are here and Sakurai has talked about the difficulty of talks with Western companies before.

Want: 10%
Much like CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica I was indifferent to Doomguy in the beginning but he and Ryu Hayabusa were constantly rammed down everyone's throats so much as the only logical inclusions that the idea of him being in has lost any charm it might once have had.

That said I can't give a flat 0 because the games themselves do look fun and if the Switch could drop the price for Doom 2016 to a reasonable number I'd probably pick it up.

Dovahkiin
Chance: 5%
Skyrim is big. Huge even. If I could point to a game and say it was a game changer in the industry this would be one of the first choices, at least for a western game.

Impressively for a western game it did very well at launch in Japan coming in fourth in the charts in it's debut week behind only mega titans like Mario and Monster Hunter and outselling the latest Dragonball and Gundam titles.

It's also home grown Bethesda, so I get the feeling much like Konami with Bomberman vs. Castlevania they'd pick the one they created from day one if they had a say in the fighter.

That said, it's still western and we traditionally don't get a lot of those, it's a game that will be a decade old next year and lastly it came in behind Monster Hunter which doesn't have a character yet so as impressive as it's achievements are it doesn't guarantee. I'd put it above Doom right now though.

Want: 50%
Honestly I'm straight up indifferent to Dovahkiin.
I enjoyed Skyrim but it never really blew me away like it did for so many others. I respect what it did and what a game changer it was(or is even to this day) but I just couldn't get into it for long.

However unlike Doomguy, the Dragonborn also hasn't been forcefed down my throat as one of the only six possible candidates for Smash DLC(none of whom made it yet incidentally) so I'm a little more open minded about their inclusion.

There's certainly a lot to work with Skyrim, giving you so much choice from magic to various weaponry and even the ability to become a freaking werewolf or vampire. I doubt we'd get either of those transformations though and that's the main reason I'm indifferent.

Let me be a freaking werewolf though, and that's a straight up want jump to 85% at least. Cool as hell.

Nominations: Ezio x 5
 
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ceterisparibus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 11, 2019
Messages
147
can i ask why some of you see being from a western company as a problem?
It's pretty telling that in a roster of 88 characters, the only western character who is in has been asked for 20 years straight. Of course, you just need your fav to be that one exception but given work and language constraints + lack of recognition most western IPs aren't likely to make it, much less see a wave of them breaking in.
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,051
Location
Scotland
It's pretty telling that in a roster of 88 characters, the only western character who is in has been asked for 20 years straight. Of course, you just need your fav to be that one exception but given work and language constraints + lack of recognition most western IPs aren't likely to make it, much less see a wave of them breaking in.
that depends of your definition of a western character, we have one western owned character and four western made characters. also nintendo have to work through the language barrier all the time, communicating with NOA, NOE and the like so it shouldnt really stop them. also lack of recognition isnt really a problem, look at terry hes niche in most parts of the world.
 

ceterisparibus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 11, 2019
Messages
147
that depends of your definition of a western character, we have one western owned character and four western made characters. also nintendo have to work through the language barrier all the time, communicating with NOA, NOE and the like so it shouldnt really stop them. also lack of recognition isnt really a problem, look at terry hes niche in most parts of the world.
I was clearly referring towards western-owned characters where communication will inevitably be an issue, especially with a top secret project like smash where you want to involve as little people as possible. I presume that sakurai's team doesn't have many (if there is any) English speaking staff, as well as having to work with people halfway across the globe instead of travelling to the 3rd party's office in Japan.
It's clearly a barrier that Nintendo has to consider when deciding which characters to pick - which is supported by how many japanese owned characters we have. It's not a priority for them.

And i should have been clearer on the "lack of recognition" portion - it was directed towards western franchises which are traditionally not popular in Japan.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,112
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Tbf Nintendo don't really need to communicate with anyone outside of themselves about using the likes of the Donkey Kong Country gang or Dark Samus due to owning them. Want to slap Dixie in? No need to call Retro really, it's their IP and they have the rights to the characters.

Had they not have sold Banjo, they would have had to do it for 0 fighters now... although the mii costumes are a different thing. It does seem odd they'd go all in for a Mii costume, but Ubisoft did get a couple of trophies last game and nothing else.
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
GIR's most wanted and Charizard's worst-- wait a second, he doesn't kill fires or flyings, just dragons.

Chance (Doom Slayer Guy): 0.01%. Sure, that could be a bald-faced lie, but the interview where it's outright said that talks with Nintendo and Bethesda regarding Smash never went too far is pretty direct. We can't just keep believing every interview is a lie because a misleading statement happened once. With the brand-new Fallout costume, I think that's the nail in the coffin for DOOM representation in Smash, unfortunately. He'll be a popular request next time, though.

Chance (Dovahkiin): 5%. One hand, he hasn't been mentioned as not in Smash, but I feel like if DOOM didn't happen it's not that much of a benefit for Dovahkiin considering how much less requested and relevant they are from Doom Slayer Guy. Coupled with the Fallout costume and I think Bethesda/ZeniMax/whoever owns these two are likely to just skip out on Smash's roster entirely.

Want (DSG): 30%. Never played a DOOM game and I frankly do not want to. However I recognize the importance of DOOM and its legacy, as well as the potential DSG could have, and the major, major fan-hype of the character sells me on him enough that I'd let it slide.

Want (Dovahkiin): 45%. I have played Skyrim and, with mods, it's an amazing experience. And the potential in this character is limitless, almost to the point of being oppressive (where do you even GO?). That being said though, with mods is something I should never have to say about a game in order to make it amazing instead of... I... literally can't remember vanilla Skyrim anymore. Plus I've got other fish to fry.

Frisk x 5. Dante and Phoenix will still likely score high as they usually do in this thread, 48.02% D and 46.98% P. Ryu I could see staying, but a lot of the leads he had were hoaxes or rumors that didn't go anywhere, which will likely impact his score. Assuming his thread doesn't show up, 48.53%.
 

BreadnJamTomorrow

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jan 4, 2019
Messages
53
Doomguy/Doom Slayer

Chance: 5%

Giving this man some leeway in the chance department since we can’t know for certainty about his status currently. However, that Metro interview is...ouch. Like other people have said before me, I believe there was too much revealed about the situation for it to be reasonably considered an NDA-friendly response. Of course, it’s not over until Doomguy/Doom Slayer himself gets confirmed or deconfirmed, but I think things aren’t looking good for him. The only bright spot for him is, and feel free to correct me if I am wrong, that the CacoMallow leak has not been DEFINITIVELY proven to be faked. So with that and the *SLIGHT* possibility that the interview’s validity is suspect, I believe that he still had a chance. But I am not hopeful, I think he’s done for.

Want: 20%

Which is a huge shame because I LOVE Doomguy/Doom Slayer’s aesthetic! Killing demons in hell with big guns, glory kills, gory sfx, and Mick Gordon’s heavy metal soundtrack is a beautiful creation. However, the reason why my want score is low despite my praise for the Slayer is simple: I want the Dragonborn more. No hard feelings for the character, series, or their fans. I respect all of them a lot. It’s just that inter-company competition gets in the way. Ugh.

__________________________________________
Dragonborn

Chance: 30%

With what I believe to be Doomguy/Doom Slayer out of the picture (and definitely Vault Boy as well), Dragonborn is the frontrunner for a Bethesda rep. Like a lot of people have said ahead of me, Skyrim and The Elder Scrolls series are very well-known, influential, lucrative, and popular not just in the Western world, but in Japan as well. As far as I am aware of, DOOM unfortunately doesn’t have that. Open-world games started to really take off once Skyrim hit shelves in 2011. The Breath of the Wild Team even took development cues from Bethesda when crafting its own open world. And that’s not even mentioning the Switch port of Skyrim, the fact that it was heavily featured in the very first trailer for the Switch, and the Zelda amiibo functionality.

So why the low chance rate? This has already been talked about, but just the fact that The Elder Scrolls series comes from a Western studio. There has been little precedent for a Western studio not owned by Nintendo to get their character as a playable fighter in Smash Bros. The only exception is Banjo and Kazooie. But that’s one out of 76 current fighters. Plus, Banjo and Kazooie also have significance in that Rare was once a second-party company with Nintendo before the Microsoft buy-out. Bethesda only recently developed a relationship with Nintendo, it remains to be seen if that is a factor or not.

There’s also the possibility that Sakurai May consider Dragonborn to be too similar to Hero, with the chargeable specials. Although I personally believe they CAN.

In regards to the Vault Boy Mii Costume, I’m actually on the optimistic side of things. That is not definitive proof of no further Bethesda reps. Aside from Joker, a number of DLC characters from Fighter Pass 1 came with Mii Costumes from their own series (i.e Erdrick’s armor and Slime Hat for Hero and Fatal Fury and King OG Fighters costumes for Terry) rather than other series owned by the DLC fighter’s company. Like I said with Doomguy/Doom Slayer, it’s not over until the character themself gets confirmed or deconfirmed.

Want: **100%+**

I am incredibly biased. My ratings show that. But I can’t help myself. Dragonborn is my #1 most wanted character for Smash period. Skyrim was the game that defined my high school days. I remember staying up until 5AM on a school night playing the game, getting only 1 hour of sleep, zombying my way through school, then crashing once I got back home. Good times...

The music, the atmosphere, the adventure, the fantasy elements, the freedom. It was magical. I would love to have it represented in Smash. It would be a dream come true. Of course, I hate that it gets all of the attention, is over-milked by Bethesda. I personally believe it caused them to get too comfortable and cheap/lazy/arrogant when it came to their future games. I am worried about the future of TES, but I will never forget the good times I had with Skyrim in a period of my life where, admittedly, I was not in the best of places.

Heck, I’m such a huge dork about getting the Dragonborn in Smash, I made a 100 page long (I think...?) Google Doc full of ideas for them. Heh heh...

Anyway, Dragonborn for Smash please!!!


Nom: Excitebiker x5
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,051
Location
Scotland
I was clearly referring towards western-owned characters where communication will inevitably be an issue, especially with a top secret project like smash where you want to involve as little people as possible. I presume that sakurai's team doesn't have many (if there is any) English speaking staff, as well as having to work with people halfway across the globe instead of travelling to the 3rd party's office in Japan.
It's clearly a barrier that Nintendo has to consider when deciding which characters to pick - which is supported by how many japanese owned characters we have. It's not a priority for them.

And i should have been clearer on the "lack of recognition" portion - it was directed towards western franchises which are traditionally not popular in Japan.
Had they not have sold Banjo, they would have had to do it for 0 fighters now... although the mii costumes are a different thing. It does seem odd they'd go all in for a Mii costume, but Ubisoft did get a couple of trophies last game and nothing else.
Y&T has a point, if getting rights to western characters is as cumbersome as you suggest why bother going to the trouble of getting them for mii costumes, surely that would be the same amount of communications and secrecy
 

DaUsername

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
909
Location
In that corner over there
NNID
DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
I'm just gonna throw a big fat Abstain over everything because I don't know what to think about Bethesda characters anymore.

Wright prediction: 35%
Dante prediction: 45%
Hayabusa prediction: 58%
Noms: the Bard x5
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
7,318
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
Concept: A person of color x135
The Stretchers x120
Tidus x120
D.Va x115
Moogle x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Nate Adams x105
Alex Mason x105

100 - 51

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x96
[Rerate] Frisk x85
Shuichi Saihara x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Red (Angry Birds) x80
Proto Man x75
Fulgore x74
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x61
[Rerate] Ezio x55
Echo: Xion (Sora) x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Sakura Shinguji x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
Concept: More ATs as one new item x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Urbosa x30
Giygas x30
Billy Hatcher x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Concept: Deltarune content x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Riptor x15
The Bard (Wandersong) x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
[Rerate] Maxwell x10
Chell x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Klonoa x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
Concept
: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Tidus blitzes past D.Va and ties with The Stretchers for second place. Moogle ties with D.Va for fourth. Nate Adams and Alex Mason both cross 100 noms.

Ezio and Echo: Xion climb past 50 noms.

Joining the list, we have a rerate of Maxwell (with 10 noms), rerates of Monster Hunter and Concept: Boss Rush (both with 5), and Kazuya Mishima (also with 5).

Sid-cada Sid-cada Lip's on the fixed schedule, so you have to pick someone else to nominate.



This doesn't make a lick of sense. If they were telling the truth in the interview (which they were, but you're in denial), then of course they'd bring up Doomguy and not Dovahkiin. They're the Doom devs. Why would the Doom devs go "oh, Dovahkiin in Smash would be cool"? Hell, they wouldn't even be aware if Bethesda had been approached for Dovahkiin in Smash.


The character Bethesda didn't create is a better rep than the one they did? That's quite the statement.
Wait, I'm pretty sure I've nominated Klonoa more than once. D'you think you might've missed my posts? Or is this just before I voted for him?
 
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