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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
7,318
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
Chance: 15% for Karate Joe and Chorus Kids, 5% for Rhythm Girl. Rhythm Heaven as a series hasn't seen much action as of late, and while requested from time to time, it's not nearly as much as, say, K. Rool, Banjo, Isaac, or Geno. I'm especially iffy on Rhythm Girl, since it appears she isn't considered the mascot character.
Want: 40%. You know the drill. Not familiar with them, but I guess they'd be cool.
Predictions:
Geno: 48.12% (Expecting a lot of polarizing scores again)
Sora: 51.05% (This guy's gonna be all over the place)
Nomination: Klonoa x5
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Chances
Chorus Kids 4%
I jus don't feel like a Rythm Heaven is going to happen for this pass, but I will still say that Chorus Kids have a bit of a chance. They have a respectable ammout of fan demand, and some remnants of codes in Sm4sh make it look like they were going to be in the game before getting cut due to the limits of the 3DS. However, they don't have much else, and that include relevance. Could a new RYthm Heaven happen? Of course, but as of now, we have no news of a new one potentialy hapening in the future. I still think of them as he most likely Rythm Heaven rep.

Karate Joe: 1%
Generaly the same thing as Chorus Kids exepct there was a period where he had more fan demand, I think that he even arguably still has more now, and there's also no lost code that imply there was plans of him getting in 4. I think of him as the second likelies Rythm Heaven rep.

Rythm Girl: 0.1%
I see no reason as to why she would get in over Chorus Kids or Karate Joe. I think that if a Rythm Heaven rep would happen, it would be one of the two others that are disccussed today.

Want for a Rythm Heaven rep: 55%
Honestly, a RYthm Heaven rep would be very cool. Even if I never played a Rythm Heaven, I still saw a fair bit of gameplay on YouTube, mainly remixes of other songs like Nights of Nights or things like the amazing Nico Nico Douga 10 year anniversary celebration (it's purely awesome, go watc hit if you haven't). Plus, a Rythm Heaven rep could be extremly fun to play as.

Predictions:
Geno: 43.8%
Sora: 34.9%

Nominations: SMT rep x5
 

Ramen Tengoku

Meiniac
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
15,719
Location
Somewhere
Switch FC
SW-6056-3633-7710
tenor.gif

Jonespost coming in hot

Rhythm Heaven Rep

Introduction
There's so many general stuff to talk about with an RH rep in particular I feel like I need to get the obvious stuff out of the way before I end up repeating points in each individual section.

Overall Chance: about 5%
First and foremost it's pretty much common knowledge at this point that a emblem entry for "Rhythm" was found in the data of Smash 4 right next to other series with playable fighters, heavily implying a character from Rhythm Heaven was planned before ultimately being scrapped. We don't why exactly, but there are a few theories. Some say time constraints, some say limitations with the 3DS, and some (including myself) suspect a rhythm based mechanic that didn't live up to standards. No matter what, the fact that the idea was never revived for DLC or Ultimate makes me feel like they've given up on the idea for good. There's also the current state of the Rhythm Heaven series in general. Going by a statement by series creator Tsunku♂ earlier this year, there doesn't seem to be a new entry in the works anytime soon. So it's not like Nintendo has a need to promote it or anything. With all these factors in play, I'm giving all the characters fairly low ratings regardless, so keep that in mind.

Individual Ratings:

"AAAAH!" "AAAAH!" "AAAAH!"
Chance 5%
Chorus Kids are an interesting case. They were heavily rumored for Smash 4 as part of the Gematsu Leak, a "leak" that managed to predict the likes of Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Palutena, and the Miis to name a few, before ultimately falling apart once Robin got in over Chrom who was also mentioned. However on top of the leak getting the rest of the characters on point, we know that both Chrom and a RH rep were planned and/or considered for 4 at some point in time, so it's very plausible Gematsu was very legitimate, albeit outdated information. On top of that, Chrous Kids are one of only a handful of spirit exclusive characters in Ultimate to get their own online profile icon, so it's quite clear they were considered worth acknowledging. Putting these pieces together makes me want to say the Chorus Kids were likely the RH character they were planning to add in 4 before stuff fell through. Though given their status as a trio, I wonder if they'd have technical limitations getting them to work properly.

"Hey Baby, how's it going? This beat is nonstop"
Chance 5%
If we were to get any RH rep, I feel like Karate Joe is a safe bet. He's been in every game in the series since the very first and is even the star of the first ever rhythm game in the series. My one real issue however is whether or not his heavy combat focus would be considered the right way to represent a series like RH.

Monkeying Around
Chance 1%
Rhythm Girl, or Tap Trial Girl or however you prefer to refer her by, is another weird case. She's had a prominent presence in a good majority of the series. Her rhythm game, Tap Trial has been playable in 3 of out of the 4 games and she's been seen as an unofficial mascot of sorts by the community. However, I feel like the lack of a spirit really dampens her chances, as this may imply she wasn't considered notable enough, and it's not like it'd be that hard to come up with a spirit battle for her. And with Min Min showing that spirits (at least base game ones) don't disconfirm, I feel like she'll be out-prioritized by many of the other RH characters already represented like the aforementioned Kids and Joe

Collective RH rep want: 100%
My most wanted characters period. I don't even care who they choose, I just want one of my favorite Nintendo franchises to get the love it deserves, and with the series being MIA, at the moment, a Smash appearance could definitely go the long way of keeping the series in the public consciousness. As for how I'd rank the rated three in terms of how much I'd like em, Rhythm Girl > Karate Joe > Chorus Kids, but they'd all be fine picks.

Quick shout out to my homies the Reporter and Wrestler, Tibby, and the Barista, who'd all be equally good picks for the series

Predictions: Geno: 53%
Predictions: Sora: 32%

Nominations SMT rep x15
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
The Three Musketeers and Pretty Cool Guy

Chance: 8% (CK) and 7% (KJ)
I think there's a good chance that we get a Rhythm Heaven character. For one, it's a franchise that's always around, so there could always be a new game to promote. Even without one explicitly in development, it's an IP that I could see getting the spotlight, like ARMS. Plus, no stage, just like three songs, few Spirits, it could easily be done. Thus, I split a 15% between these two because they're the strongest contenders, but I'm giving the edge to the Chorus Kids because it's all but confirmed that they were planned for 4 and Sakurai could revisit the idea. But Karate Joe is a recognizable mainstay and he's also fighter material.

Want: 100% (CK) and 99% (KJ)
Giving the edge to the Kids because they just seem like a more original choice. But both them and Joe would be fun, wacky, off-beat fighters, with a cool style and repping a great franchise.

The other one

Chance: 3%
I don't really see this happening. Rhythm Girl was kinda latched on just because she's a generic vessel that could easily rep the whole franchise. But honestly I don't think they'll choose such a normal character for such an abnormal franchise, and the devs just don't seem to see her as important.

Want: 50%
A Rhythm Heaven rep is good, but she's kind of boring so it'd be a mixed bag.

Noms: Jason and Sophia x5

Geno and Sora prediction: 50%
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
20,913
Location
Scotland
a rhythm paradise trio huh?

chances: now the way i see it what actually separates these characters in terms of chances mostly comes from the fans. chorus kids may have been considered for smash 4 but to this day we have no proof that gematsu was real. karate joe is seen as a mascot by the fans but i dont recall the devs ever saying that he was the mascot. rhythm girl is a fan idea based on a similar concept of mr game & watch. so im not sure there really is anything that puts them ahead of any other rhythm paradise character apart from maybe popularity we i think is a bit up in the air atm so the three of them get a 40%. rhythm paradise has the renown to warrant a character but i dont think itll be one of sakurai's priorities for dlc.

want: 100% i would love nearly any rhythm paradise character. chrous kids, karate joe, rhythm girl, rhythm monkey, hue bird, lumber cat, sneaky spirit, wrestler and reporter, wandering samurai, I'd be super hyped to have any of them.

nominate nate adams x5

btw GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 when did we last rate chibi-robo might i ask?
 

Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
1,045
Location
ZE BATH
Remember Gematsu Leak guys?

Chance: 10%
A little high some may say, but hear me out.

We must go back to the old days before Smash 4. Back in 2012, the roster of Smash 4 was beign decided due to the game starting development. During those days there were only 3 games of the series, the Japanese Exclusive GBA game, it's sequel that was released worldwide for the DS and a Wii Game released in 2011. The Chorus Kids (known as Gee Club in-game) were one of the most well known minigames of the DS Installment, hell they even appear in Game's main boxart in all versions! Sure Karate Joe appeared in the GBA game before and Wii game after, but to call him the main mascot at this point in time would be............exaggerating to say the least.

Come Smash 4's reveal, and just a few days before, a guy named Sal Romano did a "Prediction list" which included Mega Man, Pac-Man, Little Mac, Mii, Wii Fit Trainer and Villager. Half of the were confirmed (Wii Fit Trainer beign probably the really odd one out), which lead to the wild ride known as the "Gematsu Leak", and that wasn't the last we saw of it, because shortly before the Smash '14 Direct was streamed (by this time Little Mac was confirmed too, another point for it), Sal's source was at it again this time stating that the newcomers were an XY Pokémon (later turned out to be Greninja) Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, and you guessed it, the Chorus Kids. After the April Direct of '14 where Greninja was confirmed, the leak was seen as gospel in the eyes of many, basically the Vergeben of Smash 4 if you will.

Not only that, but in E3 of that same year, Pac-Man, Mii Fighters and Palutena were confirmed too, meaning that most of the leak's roster was becoming real, and in the Smash 3ds demo, a Sneaky Spirit enemy was found in Smash Run, and almost all enemies in Smash Run come from franchises that have a playable rep. (the only exceptions are all of those Namco enemies, but they are represented by Pac-Man by Proxy, and the Polar Bear, but we know for a fact that Icies were meant to be Playable in Smash 4) Chorus Kids were seen as one of the most likely characters for Smash 4, and the timing seemed great too. Rhythm Heaven was released worldwide and had the benefit of beign released in the "casual era" of Nintendo, so a quirky game that relied on more unsual control scheme (the Touch Screen) felt right at home, making it the best selling RH game. It only made sense to include a character from a at-the-time, rising franchise that proved itself in the DS and later the Wii (Smash 4's development started at the tail end of the Wii/DS era and very early beggining of the Wii U/3DS era, which is evident by the inlcusion of gaming content such as the Spirit Tracks Stage for example) so what went wrong?

Well............the leak wasn't 100% right. In July 14th, 2014 Robin and Lucina were confirmed to be playable in Smash for Wii U/3DS. Not only that, but Chrom was shown to be part of Robin's Final Smash, which disqualified him from beign playable (i know that sounds stupid now, but bear with me) this meant the leak got one character wrong (and in the pre-Smash 4 release days, Chrom was seen as THE most likely FE rep in Smash, and one of the most likely period) sure Shulk later got confirmed too, but it was too late by that point, as one new leak known as the ESRB leak took the gaming scene by storm.

After that, the idea of a RH rep was seen as less and less likely and by the time of Ultimate pre-release speculation, it was barely even talked about. Even though we got a new game for the 3DS in 2015, it didn't make a difference in the eyes of most speculators (it didn't even get a Physical Release in American regions to make matters worse) and the very crowded competition of Smash newcomers that were left were few, but far more talked about. The only time The Chorus Kids and RH in general came back to the scene was thanks to the Grinch Hoax and we all know how that ended up.

If this was Smash 4, even without the Gematsu Leak, one could argue these characters and franchise were beign slept-on and could be dark horse candidates, but now?

Well, The RH is one of those series that while niche, is actually popular enough to be considered for a Smash spot. The DS installment sold over a million copies in Japan alone, and while we don't know the estimates of the worldwide sales, i wouldn't be surprised if they were good due to the release of this game beign in the "Casual Era" of Nintendo. It sold better any of the pre-Awakening FE games, the Mother Trilogy, and most F-Zero games that weren't the SNES original or its 64 Sequel. It managed to survive well into the 3DS era too, meaning that except for the Wii U, it has been featured in most recent Nintendo systems since its debut. It also is developed by Nintendo SPD (now merged with EAD to become Nintendo EPD) the same team behind WarioWare and Tomodachi games, so it doesn't suffer from the same development issue as Golden Sun's Camelot, a much smaller and less important studio overall.

I also firmly believe that the Chorus Kids or at the very least a RH rep was indeed planned for Smash 4. Files referring to a RH logo were found in the game's files in the fighter section, plus the Sneaky Spirit could easily be a leftover from those early plans of RH getting more content in the game, in a similar manner to the Polar Bear. But honestly i think that's it. The best merits a RH rep has been sucesss from the Past and the fact that it was seemingley considered for Smash 4.

However, the biggest disadvantages are
1-: Lack of interest and demand by both the casual outisder and Hardcore crowd. It's no secret that a large majority of the Smash sphere doesn't care or even knows about RH in general, which is evident as a lot of people said "WHO?" when Sal Romano mentioned the Chorus Kids (or "Chorus Men") which means lack of demand. While not all characters have to be big talking point is the eyes of the Smash bubble to get in (Isabelle, Joker, Hero prove this) a franchise could benefit for this due to:

2-:The uncertain future of the franchise. The 3DS installment while not a failure, it didn't measured up to it's DS predecessor sales-wise, and we haven't gotten new installment for the Swich yet. This is more than likely because of Tsunku. Tsunku is a japanese musician who is one of the most important members behind RH's creation (you know, since the series is Rhtym-based) if not the main driving force of this franchise. He's been very busy lately, and the RH series seems to have the same issue as the Mother series meaning its very creator based so if Tsunku doesn't have the time or interest to make a RH game on the Switch, it's likely gonna stay that way. Unless you're King K.Rool or Banjo where you have fan demand that trascends time and space, relevance is king and can easily be a deal maker of breaker, and RH skews towards the later nowadays.

Now, thanks to Min-Min, Spirits are no longer an issue, and the idea of an ARMS rep was something Sakurai had in mind but coulnd't make it happen until now, so maybe RH still has a chance. If im honest RH is probably the 4th most likely Nintendo character to be part of FP2, behind Rex, Bandanna Dee and Dixie Kong. Which isn't saying much honestly. If RH has any chance of beign in Smash, this is probably gonna be the last chance to be in Smash in a Loooong time.

Oh and PD: Im giving Karate Joe and Rhtyhm Girl the same chance score. This is easily a "EVERYONE IS A PROTAGONIST" situation, and i could see it going in any direction here. It helps that Joe, The CK and RG are all in Megamix too.


Want: 70%, 50% for the Other Two.

The RH series is something i never played fully, but dear god i want to. I do have a knack for playing a Rhtyhm Games, and you can thank Mario RPG's timed hits for giving me a sense of Rhythm. Unfotunately the games haven't been acessible to me so i couldn't play any of them. The GBA one is Japan Only, I don't have a DS and by the time i got a 3DS DS games were no longer beign sold on local stores, same goes for the Wii Game, and the 3DS is ESHOP EXCLUSIVE which is a deal breaker for me. So for now i have to resign with the 3DS demo, damn.

But still, just by playing the Demo alone, i can say i love the idea of a RH rep. The quirky wacky characters could easily rival Mr. Game and Watch, and the music and stage they could bring would be really bopping. Im sure that if RH got a rep in Smash 4, Megamix would have been released physically and that for me is enough reason, it gives the series enough expousure that is well deserved. Im okay with any of them, but i do want Chorus Kids due to Nostalgia alone. I mentioned before that i have lot of fond memories looking back on the pre-release days of Smash 4. Pic of Day, the Gematsu Leak, E3 hype and all that ****. Sure some of it is rose-colored-glasses, but it does bring me back, if nothing because i miss when Nintendo characters were the one that dominated speculation and guests felt meaingful in my opinion. I remember beign all like "NOOOOOO NOT THE CHORUS KIDS" and now i realize how much i would have preferred them over most of Smash 4's base and DLC roster and Fighter Pass 1. Bayo, Corrin, Incineroar, PP, Joker, Byleth, etc.

Yeah, this is another one of the reason i kinda wish the Grinch Leak was real. But look i already wrote a Bible above so im gonna shut up here. Who's ne.....


....oh **** we are rating Geno next? I guess i gotta better start writing that Geno pharagraph in advance.
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Rhythm Heaven group

Abstain. I don't know much about the series and I'm not sure how to interpret their chances and give it a score. Though I will say that judging from my knowledge, this is a series that should get a playable rep.

Predictions:
Sora and Geno - 50% for both (here we go again. It will be interesting to see how people feel about these characters these days)

Noms: Ezio x5
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,207
Location
Georgia
Chorus Kids
Chance: 2%

I doubt an RH rep is likely since the franchise isn’t really in the spotlight at the moment. Chorus Kids might be more likely than others due to the fact they were implied to be considered for Smash 4. I don’t see Nintendo
Want: 75%
Rhythm Heaven would be another good choice for the Smash roster. I haven’t played anything aside from the GBA and DS games, so I don’t have a strong preference towards anyone. The most attention I’ve paid to any future entries was just watching Perfect playthroughs.
----------
Karate Joe
Chance: 2%

Karate Joe consistently appears in most of the RH games since the first game on GBA. For that reason, I could see him being one of the first considered reps for RH. But like I said, Rhythm Heaven isn’t a franchise I see Nintendo prioritizing for the Fighter’s Pass.
Want: 75%
Again, RH would be another good choice for Smash. I’m not too picky about who gets in. Joe would be a fine RH rep (and a cool rival for Ryu/Ken when it comes to fanart.)
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Rhythm Girl
Chance: 0.01%

If any RH character gets in, I think it will be a more popular, specific character. Looking at how the Rhythm Heaven franchise handles characters, I don't see Nintendo trying to unify the elements of the franchise under her as the single avatar.
Want: 75%
I’d like to see RH getting in the roster regardless of who they pick. I don’t have much preference for the character they decide to go with. I wouldn’t be jumping out of my seat for any of them, but I’d appreciate that they made it in the roster at all.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Rhythm Heaven Trio

Chance 13 - Think there's a chance here but not a huge one. However, I started this pretty low but talked myself higher as I went on. RH feels like one of the top 1st party series with no playable reps. Will that mean anything for them? Who knows. The series hasn't had a game since 2015 which is long enough for it to feel due for a new one but not long enough to think that the series is done with. The main thing that makes me think we could get a RH rep though is that the pass seems like it's focusing on new mechanics. The RH characters would without a doubt bring in a unique playstyle or a new mechanic with their probable Rhythm based attacks. I would go higher if I had any idea as to if we're getting a new game from the series though, because that feels pretty important to their chances right now. Think all are about the same chance here, maybe with the kids or Joe being a slight favorite but it's not enough for me to want to write up their own entries here.

Want 50 - Have no experience with the series or the characters. However, I do think that the possible moveset would be really cool. I'm interested in seeing how good they could make a character with that type of moveset. I also think that I would have a lot of fun playing a character with that type of moveset. I've seen some ideas that they could play to the rhythm of all the background music in Smash but that seems like a coding nightmare with over 1000 songs in the game. That would be a crazy concept but probably one that's a little too much, even for Sakurai. Wrapping things up here, I think the moveset potential here is pretty interesting and want to see it explored. Same deal as before where there's not enough separating them for me to give anyone here individual ratings


Predictions
Geno - 61%(Who knows where this one is gonna go)
Sora - 25%

Noms
John Marston x3
Jin Sakai x2
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Gonna abstain on the Rhythm Heaven trio since I don't have the energy for a full write-up today. While spirits no longer deconfirming certainly helps Karate Joe and the Kids, I don't feel that we're getting a Rhythm Heaven rep this pass. There isn't a new game on the horizon, Nintendo currently isn't pushing the franchise, and when it comes to characters with fan demand as the main driving force, there are much bigger players. But if we do end up getting a rep Chorus Kids feel the most likely (due to previously being considered, leftover code in Smash 4, and having the most fan demand), followed by Karate Joe (seen as an unofficial mascot, being in every game, and having fan demand of his own), then Rhythm Girl (present in 3 out of 4 games, also seen as an unofficial mascot by the fandom, though her not having a spirit while the Kids and Joe did shows that the team likely doesn't see her as significant). Overall, it's still possible, but I don't see Rhythm Heaven being a priority.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x25

Predictions:
Geno - 59.32% - Geno does have a decent amount of evidence piling up, and while it could all be a coincidence, it's definitely something to take into consideration. Overall I expect a lot of Geno fans to give him high scores for this reason, while there are plenty of people who doubt Geno and will likely give him smaller scores. Expecting some of the doubt to cancel out some of the convinced scores.
Sora - 35.33% - Not much has changed for Sora since Byleth and Min Min, but considering the new Kingdom Hearts game is coming to Switch, I'm expecting a small boost in scores from that.
 
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BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,826
Location
winnipeg
Rythem Heaven Reps

Chance: 15% for Karate Joe and Rythem Girl and 20% for Chorus Kids. Rythem Heaven is a franchise that so far has no playable reps in smash, at least not yet, so having franchise be playable would be a good way to promote it further. Of those characters, I feel that the Chorus Kids is the most likely, due to uniqueness and the multiple leaks. With that said, Karate Joe and Rythem Girl also have decent chances as well.

Want: 90%. I’ll be up for a Rythem Heaven Rep, with those characters all being fun to play as. I can see Chorus KIds face off against Jigglypuff, Karate Joe and Ryu having a fight and Rythem Girl and Peach face off against each other. Overall, a Rythem Heaven Rep would be a great choice for Smash.

Prediction: Geno (20%) and Sora (10%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)
 

CapitaineCrash

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
2,594
Location
Canada, Québec
Chorus kids :
Chance : 1%

I want to rate them higher so badly but I need to face it, Chorus kids have almost no chances of getting in at this point. According to the Gematsu leak of Smash 4, the Chorus kids was planned to be playable early in the development, but was cut for some reason. There’s also a Rhythm heaven emblem in the game data that shows that there’s probably some work that have been done with the character. But after that I thought that Sakurai would add them as dlc but no. At that point I wasn’t that surprised, Sakurai wanted to prioritize big third party characters and Corrin to promote a new game. Then Ultimate was announced. I really thought that was Rhythm heaven’s chances, because at that point there wasn’t that much new Nintendo ip to add, they where considered for last game and they got a new game recently (Megamix in 2015). Ultimate’s base game was really the best moment to add Chorus kids or any Rhythm heaven character, but he didn’t, but he add more characters for existing franchises and the only new Nintendo ip add was Splatoon. After that I lost hope in Rhythm heaven chances. In April 2020, Tsunku (Rhythm heaven creator) have ask fan to show their support for a Rhythm heaven on Switch. This confirm that, at this moment, no Rhythm heaven game was planned (which is way after the second pass was decided).

So what does it all means for Chorus kids? It means that things aren’t looking bright for them. Yes sure, Sakurai wanted them in the past, but he didn’t add them when he had the occasion and know Nintendo is choosing the DLC characters. With no game planned in the franchises, why would Nintendo choose a Rhythm heaven characters? Honestly, I wanted to rate them at 0%, but I’m giving 1% only because their a Nintendo ip and if they really want another of their ip in the game after Arms, it would probably be Rhythm heaven. But I don’t think it’s going to happen; we’re probably going to have more third party and promotional first party.

Want: 100%

Rhythm heaven is my favorite Nintendo franchises not already in Smash. With their unique design, unique genre (we still don’t have any Rhythm games rep.) and unique art styles, I’m 100% sure that Chorus kids would be a very unique addition that could fit really well in Smash.


Karate Joe:
Chance: 1%

Basically, the same situation as Chorus kids, but Sakurai didn’t consider him in the past if Gematsu leak is legit. But since Nintendo is choosing the dlc so it doesn’t really affect his chances.

Want: 80%

I would be happy for having a Rhythm heaven characters, but his design is very boring. I feel like Chorus kids unique design would force Sakurai to make a very unique fighter, while Karate joe would be more straightforward. Also, Chorus kids is a better representation of how unique the franchise is.

Rhythm girl:
Chance: 0%

Once again, pretty much everything that I said in the Chorus kids part still apply, but she’s way less popular than them and than Karate joe so I don’t see why Nintendo would go with her.

Want: 90%

I still think Chorus kids are better, but at least she’s not just a generic fighter, so I could see Sakurai having fun with her moveset and having another female fighters would be great. But I don’t really mind who would be chosen for a Rhythm heaven rep because I think they would all play similarly, they would take attacks to represent a bunch of mini games of the franchises.
 
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Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
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New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Abstaining on all chance scores since I don't feel like basically repeating the same thing 3 times. In a nutshell I think the likelihood of these characters would be Chorus Kids > Karate Joe > Rhythm Girl.

-----

Chorus Kids

Want: 75%
Rhythm Heaven really needs a playable character and Chorus Kids would be one of the best choices. Having 3 characters in 1 can lead to a very unique moveset plus I can see them doing a good job at representing the series as a whole.

-----

Karate Joe

Want: 10%
Eh, I know that he's a series mainstay but I'm just not a fan of his design. I feel like if Karate Joe made it in, they'd make his special moves rhythm-based and all of his normals would just be generic martial arts moves. I think the best way to represent the Rhythm Heaven series would be through a more broad character where basically every single one of their attacks references a Rhythm Heaven minigame similar to how well G&W represents his games. I can't picture that with Karate Joe as well as I can with the other two.

-----

Rhythm Girl

Want: 80%
Like I mentioned before, having a moveset where just about every single move references a separate minigame would be the best way to represent the series. Rhythm Girl is definitely the most "standard" character of the three (i.e. isn't primarily based on a specific minigame) which is why I think she'd be able to do this the best. Her being a non-alt female is also a nice bonus.

-----

Geno chance prediction: 48.32%
Sora chance prediction: 45.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5
 
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Iko MattOrr

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Messages
2,082
Location
Italy
NNID
Iko_MattOrr
Chorus Kids
chance: 35%
Just like ARMS, Rhythm Heaven is another Nintendo franchise that I could see getting a fighter in the pass. Though, given how unpredictable the DLCs have been so far, 35% is the best I can give, because who knows what will happen. In case Rhythm Heaven is getting a character, I'm pretty sure that Chorus Kids and Karate Joe are the front runners.
want: 52%
I'm fine with any Rhythm Heaven rep, I just want Rhythm Heaven in Smash, whatever it comes with; that's why above 50%. Though Chorus Kids aren't my favorites...

Karate Joe
chance: 35%
(see Chorus Kids for description)
want: 100%
He's one of my most wanted characters and right a step behind Adeleine in my personal chart. I like Rhythm Heaven as a series, I like this character and his minigames, and I think that despite the simplicity of his design, he still has a lot of fun personality.

Rhythm Girl
chance: 2%
She's not a defined character, her design changes from game to game and in some cases several times in the same game as well... I don't know, I don't see them picking this one.
want: 80%
But only if she comes with the monkeys. Her most iconic minigame is the tip-tap one with the monkeys and I think that the little monkeys are recurring and iconic enough in Rhythm Heaven to justify the whole character. Not to mention that a monkey-based moveset would be a lot of fun.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,515
Location
Drenthe, NL
Ain't got Rhythm (Heaven on Switch)
RH is in a weird spot. It's unique in being one of the few franchises that was actually considered at some point for a fighter, the Chorus Kids specifically. The unused data for a RH emblem and the Gematsu leak connect the dots pretty clearly. Too bad things just didn't aligne for Smash 4 (probably because of the 3DS version) and the franchise hasn't been able to win priority since. If Sakurai was at the helm perhaps he could've gave the series another chance but it hasn't gotten a game since Megamix supposedly underperformed in 2015/2016 and there still isn't one on the horizon, which could be a major hurdle. Who knows tho, it would certainly make for a unique fighter and it's a franchise Nintendo owns that hasn't reached total dead status quite yet. If Arms can get a fighter 2 years after it was presumed "dead" then RH doesn't have its chances dead on the water. You know, assuming Arms 2 is not yet in development.

Looking at these characters individually, the Chorus kids get a 10% in chance. Karate Joe gets a 5% and Rhythm Girl a 1%. We know the evidence of Chorus kids being the planned RH fighter from Smash 4 so Sakurai likely had them in mind. Karate Joe does have the perfect attendance and is the fan favorite of the Japanese crowd but I can only see him getting in over the trio if Nintendo specifically wanted him instead of a general RH rep. Rhythm Girl just doesn't seem as iconic or demanded as the other two so I'm not as confident in her. To be fair, I'm not as aware of her status compared to the other two.

As for want, 90% for the Chorus Kids and 85% for Joe. Despite me only having played Megamix, RH is definitely worthy of a fighter and these two are the best options. Have to give the slight edge to the kids since their wackier, funnier and cuter looks just fit RH better imo. I'd still clap for Joe tho. In a perfect world we perhaps even can get both of them as a Duck Hunt Duo styled character. 50% for Rhythm Girl and that 50% is just for the series being represented in general. I wouldn't be opposed to her but she just isn't as iconic or interesting to me and the Tap-dance minigame isn't one of my favorites.

Geno: 79.22% Expecting record high scores for this one. Prepare for multiple 100% in chance, most from a certain group of people.
Sora: 34.68%
Hades x10
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x230
Tidus x205
Nate Adams x180
Moogle x175
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x170
[Rerate] Ezio x160
Shuichi Saihara x156

150 - 101

Alex Mason x140
[Rerate] Frisk x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Billy Hatcher x110

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x95
Sakura Shinguji x95
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x95
Klonoa x85
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x70
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x62
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54

50 - 25

[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Amiya (Arknights) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
John Marston x27
Jin Sakai x26
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x25
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Hades (Kid Icarus) x25

Under 25

Boss: Rayquaza x24
Echo (Olimar) x21
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x15
Cynthia x15
Ghirahim x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Concept: Fortnite character x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Nate Adams passes Moogle and captures third place.

Mii Costume: Jill Stingray crosses 50 noms.

Jin Sakai, Hades, and Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA all escape from the under 25 club.
 

WeirdChillFever

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 10, 2014
Messages
6,493
Location
Somewhere Out There
Abstain on Karate Joe and Rhythm Gal

Chorus Kids
Chance: 10%

They were most likely planned in a pretty significant capacity, and between Sakurai revisiting ideas, the appeal of a rhythm fighter not having waned yet and Chorus Kids still standing strong as Spirits (which means there is some Smash hierarchy In Rhythm Heaven characters) means we could see them return in the same Fighters Pass as Min Min as an ARMS rep. Furthermore, there’s not a big group of characters that gets presumably this far in development, and with the 3DS being a probable scape-goat, the circumstances have arisen to warrant a second look at the Glee Club.

Of course, they’re not in their prime: The casual DS system seller Rhythm Heaven is long gone and future plans are shaky at best. Still, can’t go wrong with a character most likely approved by Sakurai already.

Want: 70%
You know what I like them. I like the trio potential, I like the rhythm aspect and I like the combination of the two mirroring the set-up of lots of Rhythm Heaven games.

Concept: 4th Party Mii Costume X5

Geno: 77.7%
Sora: 36.5%
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Gonna full-on abstain on all three characters today. I just really have no idea how I should rate any Rhythm Heaven character.

Nominating Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x5

Predictions:
Geno: 36.86%
Sora: 43.62%
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
These guys.

Chance: All three of them are getting the exact same score from me, 15%, because at this point I think they're interchangeable. Rhythm Heaven is unique as a series in that there is not one leading candidate for inclusion like Isaac of Golden Sun or Lip of Panel de Pon. Karate Joe is perhaps the most prominent of these, a popular rumor that teased the Chorus Kids got a lot of people to want them in, and... actually never mind on Rhythm Girl who I will give a 5%. All three of them, however, don't seem like they have a genuine standout (without direct confirmation, in the Chorus Kid's case) among the crowd which means I do believe basically anybody from Rhythm Heaven had a chance... in, say, 2015 when the series still had a clear future. Right now things are not looking too good for the franchise, could see it go the way of Golden Sun if we don't get a release before the Switch ends. That being said, though, if this pass maintains the focus on new series but is first party oriented these guys are around as good as locks... except, Rhythm Heaven has a very expansive pool of characters so none of them are by any means guaranteed.

I will abstain on all their wants. I would rather have another WarioWare character than them given how the series are pretty similar, but I see them as inoffensive and I do not care about any of them whatsoever.

Red x 5. Geno is going to love his day, 70.65%. Sora not so much, 24.75%.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Chorus Kids

Chance - 0.5% - While we have evidence that Sakurai may have planed for them due to the Gemastu leak, we haven't seen hide or hair of them sense. While the used to be more prominent in the franchise, as of now they aren't as important as they were in the DS and Feaver days. While Sakurai may want to revisit them, Rhythm Heaven itself being on decline while other characters in their own franchise means that I don't think they're that likely.

Want - 60% - I'd enjoy a Rhythm Heaven Character. However, there are characters I would like more.


Karate Joe

Chance - 1% - Probably the most notable character in Rhythm Heaven, Karate Joe is in every installment of the series, and hold both the honor of being the first game in the series while also being the traditional end of the non-remix stages for the games. While I would like to think Joe would be the pick, we could have another "everyone's the protagonist" thing going on, and Joe also has competition from, say, The Barista. I don't have much faith in a Rhythm Heaven character anyway, as the series is in a bit of a bind right now.

Want - 85% - My ideal choice for a Rhythm Heaven character. I'd figure that a character that mimics the motions of the more memorable mini-games would be a character that just uses the props from them. Karate Joe, I think, would better do this job than anyone else.


Rhythm Girl

Chance - 0.05% - She's seen by some as the person on every title screen until Megamix. That... isn't very notable. Sure, she's also the Tap Trial girl, but both of those combined don't amount to much, compared to Chorus Kid's making Marshel, and Karate Joe being everywhere. I don't see why they would go for her.

Want - 75% - While I would prefer Joe, she's acceptable to me. Not having a Chibi design would make the movements she would imitate easier to translate, so I'm fine with her.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
116
Abstain. I know almost absolutely nothing about Rhythm Heaven.

Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5
I'd like to ask, when's the purge?
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
I'm going to go ahead and rate all of them together since I hold them all under the same likelihood and want of "Rhythm Heaven Rep"

Chance - 5%
Rhythm Heaven to me is a series that holds a lot of similarities to Arms: it's brilliant and I love it, and for whatever reason it went massively underestimated in the west while being a significantly popular title in Japan. I think that's the core of power for this franchise: it actually did very decently well in japan for all four of its titles.
For this reason alone I would deem Rhythm Heaven as one of those titles that I could see Nintendo trying to push in a DLC pass in order to breathe more sales into a successful, yet stagnant, franchise that could potentially get more love as a result of Smash. In all honestly, I'm still reeling from the very very random drop of Blue Birds and Monkey Watch into Smash 4 during that game's DLC cycle, and that among several other things in Smash 4 made it feel like this series has been on the verge of representation, perhaps more than once.
If we do indeed see a DLC pass where Nintendo aims to push it's successful-but-could-be-more-successful titles, then this is probably the best chance Rhythm Heaven will get.
That said, I believe other stars would have to align for this to happen. For once, I believe something like Xenoblade in particular will most definitely be prioritized given it's one of the most successful franchises in current Nintendo that barely got anything in Ultimate. And then the question will be if Nintendo will want to boost other titles before boosting Rhythm Heaven... a second Splatoon rep, and extra Zelda and/or Pokemon characters are all things I consider likely, as well as the possibility of another Mario character.
So for this inclusion to make sense we would almost certainly need to see signs of life from the Rhythm Heaven franchise, which doesn't seem extremely likely at the moment. That said though, given the casual focus of Switch with titles like Clubhouse Games, Ring Fit Adventure and even Animal Crossing, a Rhythm Heaven game is exactly the sort of game you'd want to push to that audience. And even if no new title comes to be, it's probably not that extreme to imagine a re-release on Switch of Megamix or something of that sort. Still, this is still a far-off dream all things considered and depends highly on Nintendo wanting to put enough stock on the property.

Want - 100%
A Rhythm Heaven rep was one of my most wanted characters for Smash 4, probably my most wanted once Palutena made it in. In fact, I remember creating a thread for the rhythm monkey, seeing that as a not-too-crazy possibility for the franchise in an era where Marshall and Karate Joe reigned supreme. Naturally, that died over time and didn't go anywhere but the dream was there and I was also particularly hyped about the possibility of the rhythm girl. One of my favorite videos back in those days was that one fan smashified of the rhythm girl and monkey as a joint character called Rhythm Troupe, which I recommend strongly.

In terms of the game itself, I first played the DS game after finding it on super discount, and I instantly fell in love with the series. Went from there to emulate the original Rhythm Tengoku until the Wii version came out, then played the heck out of that. By the time Megamix arrived on 3DS, I had already obtained a japanese copy of the original GBA Rhythm Tengoku which I still hold dear to this day (playing on emulator with input lag was no fun, you see; it made the second Bon Odori game impossible). In fact, my current gamecube controller has stickers on it that came in the box for Rhythm tengoku, tiny stickers of the barista and one of the onions. I also spent several commutes listening to the Rhythm Heaven soundtrack on my phone (and walking to the rhythm of course!)

In a world with several fantastic rhythm games, including some other excellent ones now neglected by nintendo (Ouendan, for example), Rhythm Heaven stood tall as one of my favorites for the sheer quirkiness and uniqueness of the concept. To have it only be represented in smash by a couple of spirits and somehow ONLY TWO SONGS feels wrong on so many levels, and I still long to see a Rhythm Heaven stage in full, colorful glory with tons of music and quirky characters representing it.

I don't care if it's Karate Joe, or Chorus Kids, or Rhythm Girl, or the monkey or the munchy monk or the barista or the wrestler or tippy or the manzai birds (yes please) ... I just want to see this series properly represented in the pantheon of Nintendo greatness.
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
It's on day 500, either at its start or when it ends ( TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom mind clarifying this?). That's also the deadline for creating support threads, characters without them will be removed from the list at the same time as the purge.
Still would really like to know if group threads like the League of Legends or Sony thread count for those characters too.
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,567
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Abstain on chance.

Want for Rhythm Heaven rep (all three): 100%

Rhythm Heaven always felt like one of the bigger missing 1st Party series in Smash, and having the Chorus Kids be one of the only characters from the Gematsu Leaks in Smash 4 to still not be in Smash to this day is disappointing to say the least (though it wouldn't have to be the Chorus Kids in particular, just a Rhythm Heaven Rep in general. I wouldn't mind most choices as long as they could represent the series well, but I'd have to say my highest pick would be a composite character. Between Karate Joe, Chorus Kids, and Rhythm Girl, why not all three (and more)?

 
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jamesster445

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
1,133
Chorus Kids
Karate Joe
Rhythm Girl

Chance: 10%
Want: 90%

A Rhythym Heaven character yes please.

Honestly I dont care who. My dream idea is that the RH character is like Game and Watch and turns into the other characters. I doubt it will happen though.

Nominations: Jin Kazama x5
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,261
Did anybody nominate anything along the lines of "new stage without a character"? Because Small Battlefield is a thing now.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Small Battlefield, huh? That's unexpected. Hopefully this means we're getting more random stages added.

Couple of concepts fit the bill, we got:

Concept: Stages outside the Fighter Pass
43.27% Chance - 85.95% Want (first rating)
28.06% Chance - 75.35% Want (second rating)
(This was rated back in Vol 1 days and we had it as confirmed when Vol 2 was said to have stages as well, but now it's ultra confirmed)

Concept: Standalone stage as DLC
5.74% Chance - 70.88% Want
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
7,318
Location
Pangaea, 250 MYA
Oh, you better prepare yourself. I was here for the last one, and BOY was it a doozy and a half...
Last time I got into an argument involving Geno, I wasn't even sure if I was arguing about his chances, his merit as a character, or just those couple points in general. Doozy and a half sounds about right.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Ok it's been nearly 4 days so I'll step in and end the day now.

Day over.

Rate Geno from Super Mario RPG and Sora from Kingdom Hearts

Predict Rayman and Travis Touchdown.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Geno


Sora

 
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