Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Glaciacott]

Crashy Bashy

Chance 75%
I think Crash right now is single-handedly the most likely character for this pass. The amount of things going for him is astronomical, while the detractions other people mention I just plainly do not agree with. And it's honestly a very short list of third parties that have as much going for them as Crash... maybe Steve? Seriously though, there's just so much going for Crash:

- Massive cultural appeal and historical significance: what Sonic was to the early 1990s, Crash was to the late 1990s. In terms of sheer mascot significance, Crash is one of the few hyper-iconic mascots that are still not in Smash brothers. And as others say, we're talking about global appeal, with Japan in particular loving this character
- Popularity and current day significance: At this point Crash is probably the most iconic character that consistently tops fan polls for Smash. Add to that the fact that the N. Sane Trilogy put his franchise back on the map and did so well that it led not only to Crash Team Racing coming back and re-introducing several characters from this property to fans all over again, but this year we also have a mobile game AND Crash 4. N. Sane Trilogy and CTR also got ported to Switch and seem to do pretty well, and I'll be surprised if Crash 4 doesn't get ported down the line as well
- High moveset diversity and potential for a pack: After such a high amount of games there are a ton of things to draw from Crash to add to Smash. Tons of music, tons of possibilities for a map, and the moveset has a ton of potential. You can even throw Coco in there as an alt.

To counter some of the drawbacks I've seen:
"Crash 4 didn't get announced for Switch"
I don't think this matters whatsoever
1. The dev team is likely focusing on the best possible graphics and performance, for which it makes sense to develop for the more tech intensive consoles currently available and worry about porting to Switch afterwards
2. The teams involved in porting the Crash/Spyro games to Switch might not be the same teams as the ones developing the base game. Both N. Sane Trilogy and Spyro Reignited were clearly ported to switch, not made natively to support it. Crash 4 will likely see the same treatment. It's also worth noting that I think different companies published the games for Switch in Japan, which again means that necessary negotiations with other companies are necessary and likely not to be prioritized as hard as having a base game ready for the core crash audience that exists on PS (because yes, Crash still is very very profitable on Playstation.)
3. If Smash negotiations took place they likely happened roughly a year ago. At those times Crash 4 was likely as secret a project as it was up until it got leaked, so it makes no sense that it would factor into the negotiations nor does it say anything about Nintendo-Activision relationships outside of Crash 4 not being developed with Switch in mind.

"Activision difficulties"
Activision is a company of sufficient clout to have international presence and offices in more places than even Nintendo. If negotiations required their presence I'm pretty sure Activision would have zero problem getting people to Japan, or equally likely, to Redmond to visit NoA. Nowadays it's more complicated because of Covid, but I doubt they'd decide on a character and then, post-Covid, decide against it.
I also don't understand people having such pessimism towards western characters. I think what's more significant is that the character itself have such a tremendous impact that even Japan is aware of it. It is impossible to deny the amount of great publicity and sales that would come from Crash of all characters making it to Smash and being in the same game as Mario and Sonic, and it's hard to believe that Nintendo would pass up that chance to avoid working with Activision. Particularly since they have worked together before.
Regarding the controversies and the like I refuse to comment, but I also see those as insignificant to Crash. I also don't foresee this would impact sales of a DLC pass with Crash. Particularly since Crash has enough star power that you don't really think Activision when you see him... you just think of Crash. This is similar to me as the likes of Scorpion and Lara Croft, characters to embedded in gaming lore that they stand tall regardless of who owns them (though it helps for those owners to actually do something with them.)
Oh, talk about Activision... I saw someone saying this could be a case of Resident Evil where everyone expected it but nothing happened. So now to point out why it's a completely different circumstance: Resident Evil has competition with other Capcom characters (see: dante) for a game with already significant Capcom representation. The most competition Crash would have for Smash would arguably be Spyro or Tracer, neither of which are a tenth as likely as Crash. While Activision does have other more significant properties (CoD, Candy Crush), neither of these present the possibility of a character as well nor do they have the presence on Nintendo consoles that Crash has.

Want: 100%
I was once of those people who played Crash games back around when they first came out on PS1, and they were nothing short of excellent. They were simply magical times, and where Sonic was on the way out, Crash was slowly taking his place as the one to stick it to Mario and provide proper competition.
The fact that Crash returned to form so excellently these past couple years and actually has new games down the line is fantastic to me, and there is honestly no better time for this character to be included in Smash. The first pass was for me fairly low-key until Banjo stepped in and fulfilled dreams everywhere... I think the next character that can reach that high note is Crash and I believe him to be THE titan of Fighter's Pass 2.

Spyro
Chance 1%
In a world where Crash feels like he's at the cusp of joining, I just don't think there's a shred of a chance for Spyro. Their franchises pretty much existed in parallel with both dying out and coming back at roughly the same time and both winding up as part of Activision, but while both saw remasters it's Crash right now that has the most star power globally and he's the one I see taking the envelope.
As a side note, I think even Tracer is more likely than Spyro, if anything because of Overwatch being fairly popular in Japan and Overwatch having been a super popular title back in...2016 I think? Still, neither of them hold a candle to the titan Crash is right now.

Want 100%
Much like I played Crash on PS1, I also played a ton of Spyro. In fact, I think Spyro the dragon was my first PS1 game, and that first game was familiar enough to me at a certain point where I was running it and doing races with others. I admittedly never enjoyed the sequels to the same level as the first one (though in the reignited trilogy I enjoyed YotD the most), but that first game stood tall as a game I could keep coming back to for a great time, every time.
There's no doubt Spyro would be an excellent addition to Smash, I just don't think we're quite there yet. Definitely closer than we were back in Smash 4 though!

I'll actually use nominations these time since I saw someone do this one back in the paper mario day, and I'm enjoying bug fables soooo much right now
x5 Vi (Bug Fables)

 

[Jomosensual]

Spyro

Chance 15 - Hard to see a world where Spyro gets picked over Crash. Spyro is way less popular in the east which feels rough majorly for his chances. I don't think we're getting 2 Activision characters either so it'll be hard to see a path unless Activision wants both him and Crash in.

Want 100 - I love Spyro. Cannot remember what game it was but I had one of them on the gameboy and played it a ton as a kid. Thinking about picking up the bundle off the eshop next time I'm looking for a new game to play.


Crash
Chance 55 - I'm getting a little worried on this one. Thought he'd be an excellent first pick but then it wasn't him. Maybe he was supposed to be the E3 reveal, but I'm starting to think that this patch is going to focus on unique but less hyped characters over extremely hype characters. He's still really popular in the Smash community though and probably the most popular western rep possible. As for the new game not being on the switch, that it kinda interesting but I'm thinking it probably comes at a later date so I'm not too worried by it.

Want 100 - There's no way I'd say no to this. Crash is a major gaming icon and seeing him with Sonic and Mario would be wild. There's not many chracters I'd say are 100% perfect, home run picks but Crash is a walk off grand slam type of good here.

Predictions
Kratos - 5.72%
Master Chief - 30.52%

Noms
John Marston x5
Riptor x5

 

[zumaddy]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 50%

Definitely feels like one of the likelier third parties to make it in. A significant and recognizable mascot with the potential for a wacky and fun moveset, and with CTR and the remade trilogy on the Switch he's definitely got stuff going for him. Crash definitely feels like he would fit in Super Smash Bros, in fact in my opinion he fits more than half of the first Fighter's Pass.

Want: 75%

A good pick for a iconic mascot, while the series isn't my favourite I do have some great memories of Crash. My most played Crash game is actually CTR, so I'd love that to get a song or two in Smash. As mentioned above, he'd be a good fit for the game and would be great to see him fighting alongside Mario, Sonic, Mega Man etc.

Spyro the Dragon

Chance: 20%

Like other people in this thread, I think Crash is more likely to get in. That doesn't mean he has no chance, he also falls under a recognizable mascot who would fit into Smash Bros, and we have the Spyro Reignited Trilogy on the Switch. While I won't be expecting him, I think he's far from impossible.

Want: 100%

Spyro 3 is my favourite 3D platformer and I have very fond memories of the series as a whole. Like I mentioned for Crash, he's a great mascot we're missing and it would be so fun to see him butting heads with Mario and Sonic. Couple that with his moveset translating super easily into Smash and he's one of my most wanted picks.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Quick score update since the day changed minutes after I did it

Spoiler: Calcs

Captain Toad
19.31% Chance - 54.40% Want
First time we rated him he got 16.14% chance and 56.14%. This was right after the bombshell that was Joker, so it's interesting to see how similar his scores are. I guess the Captain is ever the darkhorse. Last time we rated him he got 4.62% chance and 56.74% want. Remember what I said about "ever the darkhorse"? Well, scratch that. After E3, not even Bandana Dee could get double digits for chance, so you can imagine that this one took quite the beating. Want is super constant though, that's impressive.
Winners of predictions were NintenRob and BowserKing with a precise 20.00%

Paper Mario
31.24% Chance - 42.73% Want
First time we rated him he got 8.31% chance and 50.16% want. Unlike the Cap, Paper Mario post-Joker fared much worse. The difference might lie in that Captain Toad had more recency due to the ports, whereas Paper Mario hadn't anything to advertise (oh, how the tables have turned). The last time we rated him he got 21.64% chance and 61.14% want. Not only was this after Byleth, but also rumors about the game that would become The Origami King were already swirling around. And... damn. From 60+ in want to barely 40+. Many cited The Origami King as the reason, either for guaranteeing that his inclusion wouldn't be based on the classic games or outright the last straw fof their interest in the series. How the mighty have fallen indeed.
Winners of predictions were DanganZilla5 and BowserKing with a precise 30.00%

Won't list extra noms again, I'm assuming the ones who won them will still get notified (I'm assuming being spoiler tagged doesn't mess with that, right?)

1. The dev team is likely focusing on the best possible graphics and performance, for which it makes sense to develop for the more tech intensive consoles currently available and worry about porting to Switch afterwards

Then why not announce it? The N. Sane Trilogy port for Switch was announced alongside the Xbox port when the PlayStation exclusivity ended, and CTR was announced for all three consoles.

2. The teams involved in porting the Crash/Spyro games to Switch might not be the same teams as the ones developing the base game.

Toys for Bob, the developer for Crash 4, was the studio that ported N. Sane Trilogy to the Switch (the game was made by Vicarious Visions), and they also made all versions except the PC one for SRT. Would be weird if they had another developer make the port when the one most familiar with the Switch is doing the other versions as well.

It's also worth noting that I think different companies published the games for Switch in Japan

Can't find anything to suggest that Activision didn't publish the game worldwide.

 

[Glaciacott]

Then why not announce it? The N. Sane Trilogy port for Switch was announced alongside the Xbox port when the PlayStation exclusivity ended, and CTR was announced for all three consoles.

Impossible to know, but I can imagine a ton of reasons: deal hasn't been formalized with Nintendo, post-production on the base game hasn't ended so the port is not prioritized at the moment, maybe nintendo wants to announce it themselves in their directs... Even with past things like Spyro reignitied there were rumours and "leaks" going around about the port for a while before an announcement happened. Companies tend to have their weird reasons around why they announce stuff and when. And normally companies know they're doing things months and years before they announce stuff to fans, so this is irrelevant towards the chances of this game getting ported to Switch.

Toys for Bob, the developer for Crash 4, was the studio that ported N. Sane Trilogy to the Switch (the game was made by Vicarious Visions), and they also made all versions except the PC one for SRT. Would be weird if they had another developer make the port when the one most familiar with the Switch is doing the other versions as well.

Even running along with this idea, I don't think it's that weird.
If toys for bob is working on the base game and prioritizing that, it makes perfect sense that they may not have the resources available to also port it. Even if they themselves do the port that doesn't justify away from the fact that you never have infinite resources to do everything you want to do... a Switch port is an extra development cost and if it would have risked them releasing beyond the window they wanted, there's no reason not to delay a Switch port.

There's more logical assumptions to be made about why the Switch is not included for release beyond Nintendo/Activision suddenly avoiding each other after both companies highly benefiting from Crash and Spyro remasters on Switch. I don't see why anyone would be assuming this in the lack of evidence, and it almost sounds like reaching to me.

Can't find anything to suggest that Activision didn't publish the game worldwide.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2...e_crash_bandicoot_on_nintendo_switch_in_japan

 

[cashregister9]

Crash

Likelihood 70%- Echoing most of this discussion by basically saying Crash is relevant not only in the west but in Japan the only true limiting factor is Activision but they like money so I do not think it is a big limiter.

Want 90%- I like this orange rat.

Spyro

Likelihood 3%- Spyro isn't as popular as Crash or many other third parties and the Japanese ports are train wrecks so I do not think he has a chance.

Want 10%- I'm am indifferent on this purple dragon child but I do enjoy the Legend Of Spyro games and the Reignited trilogy was a fun romp. But for smash there are so many other characters that I want more.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Impossible to know, but I can imagine a ton of reasons: deal hasn't been formalized with Nintendo, post-production on the base game hasn't ended so the port is not prioritized at the moment, maybe nintendo wants to announce it themselves in their directs... Even with past things like Spyro reignitied there were rumours and "leaks" going around about the port for a while before an announcement happened. Companies tend to have their weird reasons around why they announce stuff and when. And normally companies know they're doing things months and years before they announce stuff to fans, so this is irrelevant towards the chances of this game getting ported to Switch.



Even running along with this idea, I don't think it's that weird.
If toys for bob is working on the base game and prioritizing that, it makes perfect sense that they may not have the resources available to also port it. Even if they themselves do the port that doesn't justify away from the fact that you never have infinite resources to do everything you want to do... a Switch port is an extra development cost and if it would have risked them releasing beyond the window they wanted, there's no reason not to delay a Switch port.

There's more logical assumptions to be made about why the Switch is not included for release beyond Nintendo/Activision suddenly avoiding each other after both companies highly benefiting from Crash and Spyro remasters on Switch. I don't see why anyone would be assuming this in the lack of evidence, and it almost sounds like reaching to me.



https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2...e_crash_bandicoot_on_nintendo_switch_in_japan

All of the explanations you give are reasonable, but save for the possibility of Nintendo wanting to announce Crash 4 on a Direct, none of them are a good look for Activision and Nintendo having a great relationship. A Switch port being low priority imo is really bad considering triple A games from Western devs like Doom Eternal and The Outer Worlds get their Switch versions announced alongside the others, even if they end up releasing a year later.

Thanks for the part about Sega publishing Crash in Japan. Doesn't really entail more difficulty in licensing given Sega's already in pretty deep with Nintendo and Smash, but it's a really cool tidbit.

 

[Yokta]

It feels a bit disingenuous for me to vote on these characters, since my interest in Smash Bros has been flatlining most of the year. But if these two characters made the cut? I would definitely start taking this game seriously. So let me cast my votes.

Crash: 64%C 95%W
Crash Bandicoot's big comeback has proven to be more than just an exercise in nostalgia. With the runaway success of his remakes and the hype surrounding his upcoming new games, I have to assume that this bandicoot has been on Nintendo's radar for quite some time. Negotiation may prove to be difficult, considering that Activision doesn't have a Japanese branch, but it would be worth it to induct one of the most requested third party characters to date.

Spyro: 30%C 100%W
There is no conceivable reality in which Spyro gets in before Crash. But if Crash does get in, I can guarantee half the internet will immediately start asking about Spyro. The connection between Crash and Spyro is just that significant, and it would be a missed opportunity if only one of the two made it into Smash Bros. Unfortunately, it would probably fall on Activision to push for Spyro's inclusion alongside Crash, and I have a sinking feeling that they just don't care about Spyro as much. Still, I have to hold onto hope for my personal most wanted character.

Nominations:
Ratchet and Clank x4
Worms x1

 

[Sari]

Crash

Chance: 60%
One of the few characters that I am comfortable giving a +50% chance score (the other being Rex who I will probably give a 90% chance score the next time we rate). Crash is iconic, popular in Japan, and had two successful reboot games which released just in time to be considered for the second Fighters Pass. Also we've seen Nintendo collaborate with Activision in the past in the form of the DK and Bowser figures in Skylanders (a series which basically inspired the idea of amiibo). While that alone is far from a buddy-buddy relationship between the two, it shows that the interest to collaborate is there which Activision may want to capitalize on especially with them trying to make Crash very marketable recently. As for why Crash 4 isn't releasing on Switch along with the other consoles, it could just be technical/financial issues causing this delay. The N. Sane Trilogy eventually released on Switch while Nitro-Fueled's Switch version released along with the other consoles.

Want: 100%
Easily one of my most wanted characters in general. Crash's games are amazing and he would be so much fun to play as. I don't like to use the term deserves when it comes to characters being in Smash, but I think it's safe to say that Crash is definitely worthy of that word: he deserves to be in Smash.

-----

Spyro

Chance: 0.1%
Crash is just way more popular and relevant now thanks to both Crash 4 and the two remakes he's had over the years (with the first Crash remake releasing before the Spyro remake). No way Spyro gets in over Crash especially with how badly the Spyro games were originally received in Japan.

Want: 60%
I finished the first Spyro game a while back (still have to get around to beating the other 2). It's a great game and based on the character himself I'd be down for Spyro. That said though, Crash is one of my most wanted characters so Spyro getting in would practically kill his chances for Ultimate since they're both Activision characters.

-----

Kratos chance prediction: 1.50%
Master Chief chance prediction: 25.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Crash
Chance: 32%
Want: 70%

Spyro
Chance: 11%
Want: 100%

EDIT:

Ugh. Don't do research at 1 in the morning for characters you remember as a child and have fond memories for, but hadn't followed too closely until recently. My bad. Keeping track of who owns what has always been a frustration for me, and yet always important. Surprisingly, I don't think it changes too much. Though my scores are considerably higher for Crash taking it into consideration who the actual rights-owners are. (Can't seem to wash this egg off my face, any tips?)

The games coming to Switch was a blessing though and certainly hint at a possible collaboration. I don't know why they weren't in Fighter Pass 1. Up until Byleth the whole gimmick of that pass was introducing new franchises ... as well as new companies. I suppose if they were confident in a Figher's Pass 2 happening they would want to spread them evenly and continue that trend. In that case, yes. It would make sense for Crash going into Smash here. Along with perhaps a couple other new franchises/companies. (Doom Guy?) But that is "IF" they are continuing the trend. I don't know what trend they're going to do. Having Byleth and Min Min right after each other makes me think we could either have the same trend ... or they're now down to finding characters from the Nintendo catalog. It all depends on what Fighter Pass 7 is ... that'll give us more of an idea about what the new trend is...

Spyro, still down on the numbers. Sadly the four legs issue. Also the whole bad-localization-in-japan issue.

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Sorry Delete.

 

[Honest Slug]

Crash

Chance: 50%
Of the characters I have in my predictions. Crash is the one I'm least confident in. Mostly because western third parties are still a pretty new thing for Smash, I don't think we'll get more than two for this pass, and I see that as the maximum. I think Nintendo and Sakurai are still generally more comfortable with Japanese publishers, and I think this shows in fighters pass 1.

With that said Crash does have a lot going for him. After about a decade of mediocrity, and another decade of nothing. Crash has managed to come back in a big way. N Sane Trilogy and Nitro Fueled both did extremely well, critically and commercially, and Crash 4 is on its way. Not only is Crash noteworthy in gaming today, he was once a mascot competing with Sonic and Mario on the PS1, so he has a legacy as well. I remember the Pac-Man trailer back in Smash 4 where they really emphasized that all these influential mascots could fight each other in the same game. That trailer shows that this is the type of thing that matters in Smash. Not sure how hard to work with Activision would be, but if the quality of Crash games in the 2000s was anything to go by, I doubt they'd be the type of perfectionists Konami were like lmao.

Want: 55%
I mostly would be happy for other people. I like the idea of Crash being in Smash in the sense that it would be really cool to have Nintendo vs. Sega vs. Sony recreated, but as far as playing as him, I don't know if I'm that interested.

Spyro

Chance: 1%
Spyro simply isn't getting in before Crash. Crash has everything going for him that Spyro has, except Spyro is less recognized, less successful, and has very little presence in Japan. I doubt we're getting two Activision characters in this pass, and Crash simply beats Spyro on all fronts. Maybe he could be a sleeper pick for Smash 6 if Crash ends up as Ultimate DLC, but as of now, it simply isn't his time.

Want: 60%
Most of what I said about Crash applies to Spyro too, but I do like Spyro slightly more. The more open ended nature of Spyro looked more appealing to me than the linearity of Crash, even if I do respect both series in their own way. I also generally prefer Spyro's design.

Crash
Chance: 2%
Want: 70%

Spyro
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

The characters suffer from being owned by Sony and Activision respectfully. Smash Ultimate has been amazing in bringing on board new publishers and companies, but this is a different tale.

Atlus is a subsidiary of Sega. Microsoft and Bethesda hinted at a cooperation with Nintendo in Smash. SNK has been reforming their brand since 2016 and needed a game like Smash to get Fatal Fury back into the public consciousness.

Sony doesn't need any extra advertisement like SNK. And it has not displayed any willingness to cooperate with other companies at a level like Smash. It has its own competing fighting game. In short ... I highly highly doubt Sony wants any part of this. They were sluggish in getting into Minecraft Bedrock. They aren't known for cooperation and collaboration with other companies.

I just don't think it's possible.

I give Crash the higher chance ... only because Spyro didn't start off well in Japan. Crash has a better following across the world. Spyro also suffers from being bipedal making it harder to hold items. (Ivysaur gets his vines)

These two aren't in the running, folks.

Sony doesn't own Crash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The characters suffer from being owned by Sony and Activision respectfully.

I don't know who you think is owned by Sony but both Crash and Spyro are owned by Activision.

 

[YoshiandToad]

It's pretty fitting that the first Smash Ultimate Newcomer rumour I remember consisted of Captain Toad, who we rated yesterday, and these two.

Not going to lie, that set some very high standards for me that Ultimate frankly never lived upto with it's newcomers.

Not very Crash Money of You.

Chance: 55%
Alright look. Of all the western third parties, I think Crash has the most hope of happening.

But I still don't see him as anywhere near the guaranteed thing some do.
Sakurai has discussed the difficulties with working with western companies before, and when PlayStation All Stars was being developed Activision requested more money than the entire budget allowed for Crash alone.
We know the Smash budget has been getting tighter for new characters over time, and I feel this is probably the largest obstacle in Crash's way: Activision's greed.

Want: 85%
Truth be told, I've personally never much cared for Crash's games.
I appreciate his status as the platforming mascot that could rival Mario and Sonic back in the day and remember a time where he was seen on equal footing with Mario.

However, I absolutely think Crash Bandicoot would be one of the biggest deals third party wise that could be added to Ultimate, in the same way I don't really care for Megaman but understand his legacy and importance as a video game icon.

That's enough for me, honestly. Crash would be great.

Spyroling into Japanese obscurity
Chance: 0%
I'm not even going to beat around the bush here. Spyro isn't happening.

Ignoring that Crash Bandicoot has always been the main player whilst the little dragon has been second fiddle, there's also Spyro's terrible performance in Japan due to some stupid decisions to make the game perform WORSE than the NTSC and PAL region versions including reducing charging speed, non controllable cameras and for some reason stopping Sparx, your dragonfly friend, from changing colour.

For those not in the know Sparx also acts as your health bar indicator in game and his colour change showcases how much health you have. If he can't change you don't know if you can take three attacks, one attack or are about to die the next time an enemy so much as looks at you funny.
Do you see why that might be an unnecessary change that actively makes the game worse?

As a result they did not even get Spyro 3, and Reignited seems to be digital only. I don't think it's been a big success over there due to the butchering of the initial games releases.

Lastly, and whilst I'm not fond of the flat faced redesign they did for the title, Skylanders never made it to Japan. Despite kicking off the Toys to Life fad that both Disney, Lego and our beloved Nintendo hopped on, Skylanders was completely skipped over...which is a shame because once again Spyro was the face of the very first title. Not Crash. Not anyone else. Spyro was the main star initially.

Spyro's just a virtual unknown in Japan and it's highly unlikely we'll get him and Crash as part of a two for one deal...so even if Sakurai does approach Activision specifically for a platformer character(Overwatch is yet more competition) it'd be likely Crash and Crash alone.

Want: 97%
Which sucks because I actually adore Spyro.

The Reignited Trilogy was one of my most anticipated titles last year for Switch, I have fond memories of torching sheep with him as a kid to obtain butterflies, I feel he controls a lot more fluidly than Crash does in N. Sane Trilogy and overall I feel like he'd be super fun to play as, ramming opponents off the sides and into the blast zone, some gliding mechanics and the different elemental breaths.

Poor Spyro. If his initial release hadn't been so badly butchered for seemingly no reason perhaps he'd at least have the same level of Japanese popularity as his orange furry insane big brother.

 

[fogbadge]

ah these two............

im gonna abstain on both as i have nothing nice to say about either of them and i dont really want to derail things.

nominate nate adams x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Highs and Woahs
Chance: 40%
Crash basically all the necessary ingredients to make a perfect fit for Smash. Legacy, worldwide appeal, massive demand and relevancy. The next big brand new Crash game coming this year should also help his case even more so. Although... it's strangely not confirmed for Switch. Doesn't mean it won't come since it did take us some time to get Switch versions of the N.Sane/Reignited trilogies. Heck, we might even hear about it next Direct. Still, it's weird since I'm pretty sure the initial reveal CTR Nitro-fueled confirmed a Switch release like normal so what's happening here? This might not be that big of a deal but I do agree it puts the relation between Activision and Nintendo into question. Are they really supportive of the Switch or do they merely pretend to care whenever it suits them. I'm no expert so I wouldn't know but I don't think those DK and Bowser Skylanders give us the big picture. When it comes to Third-party characters, I think it's the bond between Nintendo and the third-party devs that's the make or break factor here and if the bond with Activison is even a little weaker than we might think, it would be entirely possible for Nintendo to pass up on Crash in favor of someone from a dev who's easier to work with. I'm saying there's a certain character who could fill the same niche Crash does who's owned by a company with a better established relationship with Nintendo who I consider Crash biggest competition but we'll get to him soon enough.

Want: 20%
I'll recognize his importance and legacy and all that. I won't deny he's deserving but the attachment just isn't there for me. And being a western third-party in general makes him competition to some of my most wanted.

He's a Spyromaniac
Double zeroes
That's harsh I know but Crash simply has every advantage over him and Activison isn't getting two character in the pass. I can't imagine scenario where Nintendo would want him over the bandicoot. It's not Spyro who's popular East and West and the one dominating speculation. Being owned by Activision as well gives him the same potential shortcomings but with none of the positives to make up for that. I was just planning on abstaining on him for want but he competes with my favored characters just the same. At that, he'd also lack all the important stuff for me to understand the inclusion.

Master Chief: 22.42%
Kratos: 4.71%
Deltarune content x10

 

[Calamitas]

Absturz Nasenbeutler

Chance: 35%
A long-running iconic video game character with a pretty strong following, and some demand for Smash. So far, so good. What we however need to keep in mind with Crash is that he's a western third-party character, which already is quite a heavy strike against him, Japanese popularity or not. Additionally, the relationships between Nintendo and Activision aren't really strong in any noteworthy way, unlike how it was with the one western third-party character we do have in Smash, Banjo and Kazooie. I'll admit that with just these reasons, the rating is a quite on the low side, but. . . just call it a hunch.

Want: 0%
Sorry, but I got absolutely no interest in seeing Crash in Smash. I have zero history with the series, and since I'm generally not the biggest fan of platformers, I don't have any interest in playing it, either. And as far as moveset potential goes. . . all I ever really see this character is do, and not much else. Thanks, I'll pass.

*Noises of Japanese rejection*

Chance: 5%
Most of the things about Crash apply also to Spyro. . . except for a pretty vital one, and that's Japanese support. With pretty much no Japanese support, I don't really see Spyro happening.

Want: 10%
Eh, he'd at least be somewhat interesting, I guess? A quadrupedal dragon would be pretty unique as far as Smash fighters go, so that's a bonus. But beyond, I still got no history with the series, let alone an interest.

Predicting Master Chief to get around 42.86%.
Predicting Kratos to get around 13.73%.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Crash Bandicoot Want 30%: I hate everything post Naughty Dog, but his return to form has been interesting, and the new game looks like it could be very good as well. Big fan of classic Crash. I will say Crash as a character is not as interesting as he could be, and at this point it's more about characters than franchises for me.

Crash Bandicoot Chance 15%: He's one of the more likely 3rd parties, he's the biggest platforming character not in by a mile. He has Japanese presence, unlike Spyro and Rayman. He has some demand to get in, but considering he had very limited demand for the ballot I don't know how much that will really help him. Last but not least, I have a feeling this fighter pass will be first party focused, as I feel that a Sword&Shield Pokemon is guaranteed. We're not drowning in 3rd parties like fighter pass 1.

Spyro Want 0%: I don't like the character or his series. Essentially, every mainstream collectathon criticism that people lob at DK64, I feel applies tenfold to Spyro. I also do not like the childish world and characters of Spyro by comparison to Crash Bandicoot. Worst of all, I feel he would be a tremendous insult to Crash if he got in before him, and there is no fantasy world where they both get in simultaneously.

Spyro Chance 0%: Crash Bandicoot's existence blatantly blocks Spyro. Crash is more famous than Spyro outside of Japan, and in Japan Spyro is a complete unknown, and thus a complete unknown to Sakurai. Spyro is primarily used for Skylanders now, and that is obviously not the Spyro people would want in Smash.

Nominate Monokuma x5

 

[fogbadge]

i love how many of you say theyd never chose spyro over crash, reminds of when people said theyd never chose someone else over springman or that theyd chose piranha plant over any other mario character

 

[Deleted member]

Crash

Chance: 50%
Honestly I'd peg him as one of the most likely characters to get added in this pass. Popular 3rd party gaming icon that brings in a new IP, has seen success recently, and whose company appears to have a working relationship with Nintendo. The only thing holding him back is that he's a western character, but we got Banjo so... ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

Want: 1%
Would be cool for the fans, but I don't give a single crap about him myself.

Spyro

Chance: 1%
Can technically happen, but he's not making it over Crash for reasons others have already stated...

Want: 40%
...Which sucks because I'd prefer him.

 

[MasterWarlord]

i love how many of you say theyd never chose spyro over crash, reminds of when people said theyd never chose someone else over springman or that theyd chose piranha plant over any other mario character

• Piranha Plant is the game's shock character like Wii Fit Trainer who is added entirely for being shocking and no other reason, and does not have to adhere to normal criteria.
• There has never been a third party shock character, and if there was, Spyro does not qualify. He is just weird to be in over Crash, but otherwise is a fairly mainstream character.
• I fully believed Spring Man was never happening, and there were several logical reasons pointing to it not being Spring Man. Those who failed to acknowledge that a giant campaign for announcing an Arms character would be laughably anti climatic to end in the main character have nobody to blame but themselves.

 

[YoshiandToad]

i love how many of you say theyd never chose spyro over crash, reminds of when people said theyd never chose someone else over springman or that theyd chose piranha plant over any other mario character

It's a bit of a different situation.

Activision are pushing Crash HARD right now between N-Sane trilogy, last year's Crash team racing(which Spyro appeared in as DLC) and now Crash Bandicoot 4(even though it's far from the fourth title, this is like Kingdom hearts or Sonic up in here) It's About Time being announced.

Spyro is (unfortunately) plain old less popular than Crash in general in the west and due to the horrific butchering of his title in Japan, a virtually unknown individual to Japanese audiences who Nintendo still take heavily into consideration.

It'd be more akin to going to Square and getting Zidane from Final Fantasy 9 over the more marketable and desired Cloud from Final Fantasy 7 than it would for Nintendo to internally make some weird ass decisions regarding the chosen character for a series or the ninth character in their flagship franchise.

Not saying I think Plant and Min Min were the right choices, but this is a different kind of deal. Plus a special request from the director put Min Min ahead for sure...I just don't think a company who loves money as much as Activision would pick the one with less to marketability if it came down to those two...and that's not including other things they want to advertise like Overwatch 2.

 

[Lyncario]

i love how many of you say theyd never chose spyro over crash, reminds of when people said theyd never chose someone else over springman or that theyd chose piranha plant over any other mario character

I mean, Crash is popular in Japan while Spyro is not, not forgetting that Crash is the character that made at least top 10 in fan polls left and right ever since Ultimate was anounced, not Spyro. Really the only way as to why Nintendo would pick Spyro over Crash would be if Activision ask really way too much money for him, while giving Spyro for cheap.

 

[SargeAbernathy]

I don't know who you think is owned by Sony but both Crash and Spyro are owned by Activision.

Ugh. I broke my rule about writing and researching at 1 in the morning. I'll take it down. I'll re-edit it since deleting isn't an option.

Thank you for pointing out my mistake in that way. I appreciate when someone is corrected in a more gentle way .... than say when someone pokes fun of a mistake. It's why I like this board for the most part.

 

[Troykv]

It's Crash Bandicoot!

Chance: 50%

Crash is one of those characters that have a pretty much perfect resume to fit a Pass (heh) to the Videogames Hall of Fame, even from a japanese perspective. He has a long-lasting legacy, going since 1996, making a Great boom not only in America but also in Japan; even in his darkest days he got some games and representation. He represent one of the fantasies of gaming, as a representative of Sony without the problems of being actually owned by Sony. He even has managed to become a extremely popular Smash Request since 2018 (though I don't think it was a foreign concept to explore the potential of Crash considering Smash Crusade is a thing) with the annoucement of the Switch Port.

The future is looking bright for our beloved Crash Banooca.

Then... Why the Chances stop at 50%? To put it midly... The Covid Pandemic makes me unsure of how the hell is Sakurai supposed to negotiate the character with outsiders, specially non-japanese

Also. Percentages above 50% are extremely rare by my part.

Spoiler

If I had a bit more hindsight there would only be two characters in the entire Smash 5 Speculation that I would have value above 50% outside of leaks: Byleth (specifically in the context of DLC, it made so much sense, but I only realized like two weeks before their arrival) and Inkling (and this character was so obviously going into Smash, that they were annouced before Smash itself xD), who in particular would had being the only 100% in chances I ever gave.

Want: 70%

I hold the Crash franchise close to my heart. I love his games since my Childhood. And it seems it'll continue to bring me joy.

Spyro, the Legend of a Purple Dragon.

Chance: 1%

.... Yeah..., Spyro has a very big problem in the form of Crash, both of them are representatives of Activision. And if you're going to choose one of Crash and Spyro, you're gonna go for Crash Banooca. It's a simple as that. Spyro NEEDS Crash in Smash to be even a minor consideration

Want: 51%

Obligatory non-neutral response because dragons are cool.

Dragons!

Predictions

Master Chief: 7.6%
Kratos: 1.4%

Nominations:

Monster Hunter x5 (because I don't really know what ti nominate, hahahaha)

 

[Opossum]

Crash time, baby. And It's About Time, too.

Chance: Abstain
As usual, I'll be abstaining from Chance. My view of what a "likely" percent is differs greatly from most people. I see 10% as a very good shot, all things considered, and 25% for characters with quite a bit going for them. Others would see both of those as bordering on impossible. While I'd personally give Crash around a 25% if I were giving a score, I also think he's among the most likely characters...mainly because I don't think there's a single character I'd give over 40%.

So why do I think Crash has a good shot?

Well, several reasons. Activision actually has a really good working relationship with Nintendo, even if you go back to the Wii U era where Nintendo allowed them and trusted them enough to make hybrid Skylanders/Amiibo of Bowser and DK, two of their biggest characters. But this continued in the Switch era. Outside of Call of Duty and Destiny, which were honestly never going to be on Switch anyway, damn near every Activision game has come to Switch. The Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy, the Spyro Reignited Trilogy, Crash Team Racing Nitro Fueled, Overwatch, Diablo III...they're all on Switch, and that's a lot better than some of the other companies people tout as being "major supporters" of Nintendo.

And you can bet that once the token year is up, It's About Time will head to Switch, considering Toys for Bob put Spyro on it which runs on the same engine. Fun fact. The game is being published by Square Enix in Japan.

Then there's Crash's status as a worldwide video game icon. Crash indisputably has a massive 2+ decade legacy. He's well known in the west as well as Japan, the two major markets for Smash. And he's a character that clearly resonates with Nintendo fans, to boot. Just look at how well Crash's games have done on the Switch.

The elephant in the room, of course, is that Crash is a western third party, and while that was seen as an issue with Banjo by Sakurai...note that he also said it was an incredibly smooth process. And it reaped quite the reward. Nintendo is VERY aware of how well Banjo was received. When they released a promotional video showing people hyping over the DLC reveals, Banjo was the only character with more than one reaction. If a character has enough far reaching appeal and has a company willing to work with Nintendo despite the language barrier, then I don't think they'd see it as a major issue. And Crash is a character with wide reach and mass appeal that has a company that's always been willing to work with Nintendo, one that's been an industry giant for just as long as they have.

And in case anyone tries to be overly puritanical and say that "Nintendo wouldn't want to associate with Activision because of all the shady things they've done" (while ignoring their longstanding working relationship), keep in mind that Konami has three characters on the roster and that Nintendo themselves aren't saints. They were found to be contracting a Chinese electronics factory to produce their Switches that used forced slave labor from interred Chinese Uyghurs, and Nintendo's response to these findings? Radio silence. So don't try to pull the "higher standards" card. They're all multi billion dollar tech companies. They all suck, even your favorites. Don't forget that.

Want: 100%

ON A HAPPIER NOTE, Crash is easily my most wanted character that still has a chance, and my most wanted third party character over all. The original game was one of the first games I ever played, alongside Pokémon Silver and Super Mario Bros. 3. Crash was a character I've wanted in Smash since Brawl opened the door for third parties, but until the N. Sane Trilogy I never saw him as likely. Now I'm thrilled to think he might actually have a shot. I just love him.

 

[fogbadge]

• Piranha Plant is the game's shock character like Wii Fit Trainer who is added entirely for being shocking and no other reason, and does not have to adhere to normal criteria.

i believe wii fits extreme success contributed to WFT being in the game

 

[Lionfranky]

Crash
Chance: 55%
Others already summarized pretty much. He checks almost everything required for inclusion, but I think some people vastly overestimate his chance. Sure. Activision is promoting Crash, but they also had history of rejection aka PSAS. Nintendo may be more generous in budget compared to Sony, but we don't know how much Activision would ask. I bet they ask more than Microsoft. I think we've seen our expectation gets shattered here and there. That's why I want to go against the flow.

Want: 85%
I haven't played much of this series, but I can still recognize all its merits. I will just be happy for his fans.

Spyro: 5%
I don't want to elaborate since it would be beating a dead horse. My opinion here is pretty much same as others.

Want: 85%
He looks fun. He could bring fun and unique playstyle. We can use more non-humanoid characters especially four feet one.

Nom: Neptune from Neptunia x 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Not a rating, just a nice bit of artwork I did two years ago of that early days Smash Ultimate 'leak' I mentioned in my rating today:

Been a rough day, thought I'd share something a little nice.

First time drawing Crash and Spyro so they're a little whack. Minecart buddies.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Crash:

Chance: 50% - This is the 4th time I'm rating Crash here, so I'll just summarize what I said last time, as not much has changed since other than Crash 4's announcement, which I expected was in production back then anyways. I think Crash is by far the most likely western 3rd party character, on the face of it he has everything going for him: legacy, relevance, owned by a publisher that has a solid relationship with Nintendo, and fits into Smash like a glove. I'd also argue he has a pretty easy moveset to stitch together, but I know not everyone feels he has a lot of moveset potential, so that's a more subjective take. The one major hurdle in his way is that he's a western character, and while we've already seen Banjo, it's difficult to say how things would be with Activision as far as the language barrier and control goes, I think how smoothly the process goes with western owned IPs is very much a case-by-case thing. Still, I remain quite optimistic about him.

Want: 100% - The one thing that has changed every time I rate Crash is that my want score has steadily grown, and at this point I'm putting all of my eggs in his basket. None of my other wanted characters are as likely as Crash, and the more likely I find a character the more I begin to imagine how its inclusion would turn out, which just makes me more excited at the prospect, you guys know how it goes. I think Crash and Geno are the only two characters where I feel it'd be a real shame if they missed out at this point, and of the two Crash is the one I actually have personal investment in.

Spyro:

Chance: 0% - I just have to echo what I've always said about Spyro, and what many others are also saying, which is that without a presence in Japan, Spyro just doesn't stand much of a chance. I also think that Crash kinda has to happen first, as Spyro is effectively the little brother of the two.

Want: 80% - I love Spyro, his games are such a good time, and I guess I just have something for purple dragons. I love Crash more, so I'd prefer to see him get in first, but there's no timeline in which I'd not be incredibly happy to see Spyro in Smash.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

First time rating a character, I missed the boat on Banjo-Kazooie and King K. Rool, But I guess I don't have to worry about that now for obvious reasons.

Crash Bandicoot:

Chance: 75%

The former mascot of Sony's Playstation brand and one of the big and few mainstream characters left and without a doubt the biggest platforming mascot that hasn't made it into Smash, Me personally feels like his ommision would be more obvious than most 3rd party characters because of his rivalry with Mario and to a lesser extent Sonic, He just absolutely fits in to that "Club" of company/platforming mascots of Mario, Sonic, Pac-Man, Donkey Kong and Banjo-Kazooie that seem like the focal point of Smash seeing as it's a "Platform Fighter", He's got a lot going for him, 2017's N.Sane Trilogy and 2019's CTR Nitro Fueled very successfully revived the character and franchise, Not to mention both are on Switch and the long awaited follow up to 1998's Warped is finally happening after more than 2 decades with "Crash Bandicoot 4": It's About Time" coming this fall with a Switch port likely to come out next year. The only drawback I see with him is that he's a western character, But seeing Banjo-Kazooie break down that barrier makes it seem like it's not as big of a problem we thought. I truly believe we will get at least one more western character in season 2 and to me Crash Bandicoot is one of the big frontrunners.

Super Mario vs Sonic the Hedgehog vs Crash Bandicoot needs to happen.

Want: 80%

While I grew up with the Nintendo 64 and Nintendo consoles in general and wouldn't have it any other way, Outside of my Nintendo bubble, The one console I probably have a solid amount of nostalgia for is the original Playstation and Crash Bandicoot and to a lesser extent Spyro the Dragon are the main reason why, I didn't own a PS1, But I knew people growing up who did and everyone of them had games from the Crash Bandicoot trilogy, So while I mainly gamed on the N64, In a way I still somewhat grew up with the orange marsupial. I also absolutely love platformers and cartoony animal/mascots, Mario, Donkey Kong and Banjo-Kazooie etc, So you can see why I also love Crash Bandicoot as he was pretty much Sony's take on what I already love. I already got my most wanted character in Banjo-Kazooie and 2nd most in King K. Rool and that has left me pretty much 90% satisfied with the roster, But if I had to pick a 3rd it would probably have to be Crash Bandicoot who is currently my most wanted character.

Spyro the Dragon:

Chance: 10%

Like countless others have said before regarding Spyro, No chance in hell does he make into Smash before Crash, Crash Bandicoot is everything Spyro has, But turned up to 11, He's a bigger, more successful character/franchise and has the edge of being popular in Japan, Not to mention Spyro was a guest character in CTR: Nitro Fueled which goes to show you that Crash is the big party host and Spyro gets the invite into his world.
He's not impossible, But his chances are a double-edged sword, Crash Bandicoot increases his chances into Smash, But many don't see Activision getting 2 characters in this pass, So it's only natural that if Activision can only get 1 it's gonna be the bigger and more successful character of the 2 and that's Crash Bandicoot.

Want: 65%

I would be cool with Spyro the Dragon in Smash, I somewhat grew up with him ,But to a lesser extent compared to Crash Bandicoot, But he just like Crash is pretty much what I like in a video game character and fits the mold of your prototypical platforming mascot that I find so damn appealing, I hope he makes into Smash some day, But Crash Bandicoot takes priority for me right now.

 

[warpenguin55]

Crash:
Chance: 45%
Crash having relevance in the east is what gives me confidence that he's not done for yet. Being popular in both the East and West gives him and advantage over characters such as Spyro and Reimu, who are only popular on 1 side of the globe.

Want: 65%
I have no experience with Crash or his games at all. He's much like Master Chief where even though I have little to no experience with them, I still want them in Smash because they're gaming icons.

Ridley's Little Bro:
Chance: 1%
Spyro's biggest issue, as stated by everyone above, is his competition lack of presence in Japan. That's probably a death sentence by itself, but against Crash it pretty much spells doom for Spyro's chances this time around.


Want: 40%
I've played a Spyro game before. It was a GBA game, don't remember the name. I do remember pretty much just running around doing god knows what because 3rd grade me was pretty ********. I don't think I knew what the story was back then and kept starting new games for no reason. I think Crash would be a better pick for Smash, but if he's not available for some reason, I'd be cool with seeing Spyro or Tracer take it.

Noms: Rocket League rep x5

 

[PsychoJosh]

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 80%
Want: 80%
Crash is really cool and with him coming back I think they might make a push for him to finally show up in Smash.

Spyro the Dragon
Chance: 40%
Want: 100%
I like Spyro way better than Crash, but I think Spyro's inclusion is contingent upon whether Crash gets in or not. I don't think Spyro would ever show up without Crash opening the door for him first. They always tended to go together, would be cool to see them both appear in a a double reveal.

Nomination: Earthworm Jim x5.

 

[Heoj]

Crash:
Chance: 55%
Yeh i dont know, i dont feel like hes suuper likely or anything but he definitely has a solid shot. Not too much else to say really.

Want: 5%
Crash is the perfect example of a meh reveal for me personally, like i see the significance of putting him in and i see peoples excitement over crash, but if he were to get in id just say meh and wait for the next reveal. Not much else to say really, if im being honest i think id probably prefer a mii costume or spirit.

Spyro
Chance: 0%
I just don't see Spyro happening at all, there's no way Nintendo would skip over crash to throw in spyro. Ive also heard that spyro doesnt really have a presence in japan at all but i dont really know too much else about that.

Want: 0%
Spyro is kind of cool but i have no desire to see him playable. Its similar to my thoughts on crash and id honestly rather see a mii costume or spirit.

 

[Ridrool64]

No, It's About Time, you are not the fourth game and I will never accept you as the fourth game. You are number six. You can be the fourth game chronologically, but you are number six.

Chance: 75%. I still think Crash is very likely, but if he is not the next character, that's when I think his chances plummet (due to the dwindling hype pattern that plagues him). At least, a little, then a lot if he's not in by the time we get CP8. Overall, though, everything I just said about him still stands. He came back from the dead long enough ago that he's proven that the Bandicoot really has staying power. He's got the relevance and fan demand to stay in the conversation in general. And while animations only go so far, he could be the breather episode of the DLC, not really focusing on a major gimmick. And if Sakurai insists, a certain mask provides all that.

Only problem is he's western and there's no clearly established bridge, but I feel like Nintendo and Activision are getting close enough that it wouldn't be too much of a problem. Though, Acitivision might ask for too much for him to be on the table. But when that actually happened it was on a much lower budget game... still could be a possibility.

Want: To paraphrase myself from last time...

Want: 90%. If I can't have Arle, but I can have Crash, that's a pretty fair trade. He's my "nostalgia pick", though it's not quite the games I imagine most people wanting him for nostalgia would think of. It's Wrath of Cortex and Tag Team Racing, and to a lesser extent, Twinsanity, CTR, THEN 2 and Warped. I... I love those games. I have to admit it, those are some of my favorites. While I have not made a moveset concept for him personally, I've seen enough that how he'd feel in Smash and what he could bring to it as a whole appeal to me a lot. He better have music from Wrath and Twinsanity though, but based on Banjo that's not gonna happen and I'm sad. It's weird: I never really considered Crash as an actual Smash contender until 2017. In a world where Madou Monogatari doesn't exist, Crash would be my number 1 easy peasy.

My hope for Arle's gone up and for Crash has gone down, but when it comes to their want the color orange stays winning.

WAAAAUAAUAGH

Chance: 0%. I actually outright think Spyro will not be playable at this point in time, for a bunch of reasons. He's not only not the first pick for an ActiBliz rep (Crash), he's sure as hell not the second (Tracer) and I dunno if I could even cleanly say third (there's other Blizzard series I could see sniping him). His competition is just one of his major problems: whereas Crash has international popularity, Spyro failed to catch on in the east, and whereas Crash has four remakes and the next installment in his series (on top of a mobile runner), Spyro has had nothing but his games remade, which is at least better than nothing but doesn't compare to just how prominent in the latter part of the 2010's Crash became and how he's truly come back from the brink of death. That's not to say Spyro is a never-ever; if he can overcome his weaknesses and prove he's not a one-hit wonder, or get a boatload of fan demand (let's say, two Ridleys and Waluigi with a dash of Mega Man) from the west, he could pull through in the future.

Moveset is probably not a problem for animations, at least...? I guess Sparx could be his gimmick, but once again it's a retread of Aku Aku.

Want: 25%. Unlike Crash, again, I don't have nearly the same attachment to Spyro. Coming from the 6th and 7th generations for childhood, Spyro was pretty consistently under the radar, and while I disagree with the notion that Crash's only good games were on the PlayStation 1, I do believe that of Spyro (at least, of the classic games), Enter the Dragonfly being a Sonic 06 level disaster. And sure, Spyro 3 is great. But I also don't get the hype around him to an extent. He's a biped! But, how does he grab enemies? How does he hold items? It works for Duck Hunt because DH doesn't talk, but Spyro does. They're brothers from other mothers, sure, but at this point I'd be more or less fine with him getting a Mii Hat. Spyro Helmet... sounds neat. But he at least is interesting enough that I won't throw him into the trash.

I feel bad that I'm outright giving him a 0%, and thus I'll move that up to a 30%. Though I will admit that the first game I remember truly beating 100%... was Kirby's Adventure, but I mistakenly attributed it to Spyro 3 once. That's something. It'd be way higher if we could get Hunter instead with the WAAAAUAAUAGH as a taunt.

Frisk x 5. Kratos I think isn't hitting the 1% mark, 0.64%. The Chief could be in the cards... but has to overcome Steve and Halo's underperformance in Japan. 23.94%. Score might be higher than I expect, though.

 

[fogbadge]

No, It's About Time, you are not the fourth game and I will never accept you as the fourth game. You are number six. You can be the fourth game chronologically, but you are number six.
.

i was beginning to think i had imagined it

 

[DaUsername]

Smash Bandicoot
Chance: 85%
Crash has a lot going for him, like his worldwide popularity, his recent series revival, and being the only character besides Sonic to ever be considered a legitimate rival to Mario. The only thing really holding him back is the fact that he's owned by a western company, but we've been getting an increasing amount of Western content recently (Banjo, Sans costume, Cuphead content, etc.) so that might not be as much of a problem as we think.
As far as other potential Activision characters go, while there are bigger franchises, none of them have characters as iconic as Crash. Even then, we got Banjo before Master Chief so anything's possible.
Want: 100%
In case it isn't obvious, I really like Crash. Playing as him in Smash would be really cool.

Ridley Jr.
Chance: 20%
While Crash and Spyro are similar in a lot of ways, I don't see any possible situation where Spyro gets in before Crash, Crash is just the bigger character, especially in Japan. Even if DLC goes on long enough for us to get two Activision characters, I'm not completely sure that Spyro would be the second character.
Want: N/A
I really need to get into the Spyro series.

Yeah, what he said.

Kratos prediction: should be 0, but it'll probably end up being 2% or so
Chief prediction: 20%
Noms: Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[MeteoRain]

CRASH! A-AAAAAAAAH!

Saviour of the universe!

Chance: 70%

Bias.

I think he's one of the most likely third party out there. Activision be damned, if being a money grubbing company was all it took to shoot down a character's chance then what on earth is Konami and Square doing here with multiple fighters.

If Snake, Cloud, and Banjo can make it. I don't percieve anything standing in Crash's way.

Want: 100%

Can't lie, this guy is my Banjo, my Sonic, nostalgia incarnate.

Seeing Crash join the fray with Nintendo's Mario and Sega's Sonic would be the most classy tribute to gaming history they can pull for this 90's boy.

He's too SMALL!

Chance: >1%

Spyro has a few problems, Japanese infamy, a shadow he's under across the globe mentioned above, and he was never perceived as a Mario rival.

The only instance I can see him joing is if Nintendo decided to double dip with Activision, but if they did I'd suspect it to be from the Blizzard side of the company much like Square.

Want: Abstain

I'm not rooting for him, personally. I wouldn't object to him after Crash though, heck I think if he got in first it would push Crash into a lock.

 

[SharkLord]

Are we moving on, or are we waiting a little longer? The thread seems to be slowing down.

 

[Sid-cada]

Crash

Chance - 15% - A bit more likely than most, but still very up in the air to me. We have only one western third party in Banjo, who got in under unique circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated again. I feel like while you can't exactly state how much not being on the same continent will make it harder, acting like it's not a barrier at all is foolishness. Activision has been an on-and-off Nintendo partner, though right now their in an "off" phase, as their most recent game hasn't been officially announced for the Switch. Crash has only really popped off, I think, after Joker when third parties really took off, which may be just a bit too late to notice demand. Still, he's pretty much Activision's old school mascot at this point, and there is appeal to the old Playstation vs. Nintendo fight, so he could get in on those merits.

Want - 50% - Let me start by saying that I've never owned a Playstation of any kind. I recolonize that he's important, but overall, he's kinda meh for me.


Spyro

Chance - 0.5% - I'm giving a token amount, if only due to Skylanders (remember that?), Otherwise, I agree with the sentiment that Crash would probably get in over him.

Want - 55% - I find his design sligtly better than that of Crash, but otherwise I don't care. I could take him or leave him.

Nominations

Monster Hunter X5