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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
BowserKing
Smash Lord
Paper Mario
Chance: 30%. With a new Paper Mario game coming out, it seems like Paper Mario would be a good promotional character for this game. Also since Min-Min got to be playable, Paper Mario’s chance has increased quite a bit. While there are already two Mario’s, a third one would not hurt since this game has three Links.
Want: 70%. While I prefer it if Fawful, Geno or Dark Bowser got in as the Mario RPG rep, Paper Mario would be fun to play as. Also his move set would be different from Mario (using hammers and stretch arms for an example). Overall he would be a great choice for a promotional rep.
Captain Toad
Chance: 25%. Captain Toad has things going for him. First of all, he counts as a Mario spinoff character. Second of all, since spirits can become playable, his chance has increased. But chances are, Paper Mario is more likely to be in this game then Captain Toad is.
Want: 65%. It is a bit surprising that a Toad is not playable yet in smash bro’s. Captain Toad would be fun to play as, and he would have unique abilities like mining tools to make him different from the cast. Overall Captain Toad would be a fun choice and we would finally get a playable Toad in smash.
Prediction: Crash (40%) and Spyro (30%)
Noms: 3 for Gooigi and 2 for Concept: Returning Stages
Chance: 30%. With a new Paper Mario game coming out, it seems like Paper Mario would be a good promotional character for this game. Also since Min-Min got to be playable, Paper Mario’s chance has increased quite a bit. While there are already two Mario’s, a third one would not hurt since this game has three Links.
Want: 70%. While I prefer it if Fawful, Geno or Dark Bowser got in as the Mario RPG rep, Paper Mario would be fun to play as. Also his move set would be different from Mario (using hammers and stretch arms for an example). Overall he would be a great choice for a promotional rep.
Captain Toad
Chance: 25%. Captain Toad has things going for him. First of all, he counts as a Mario spinoff character. Second of all, since spirits can become playable, his chance has increased. But chances are, Paper Mario is more likely to be in this game then Captain Toad is.
Want: 65%. It is a bit surprising that a Toad is not playable yet in smash bro’s. Captain Toad would be fun to play as, and he would have unique abilities like mining tools to make him different from the cast. Overall Captain Toad would be a fun choice and we would finally get a playable Toad in smash.
Prediction: Crash (40%) and Spyro (30%)
Noms: 3 for Gooigi and 2 for Concept: Returning Stages
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
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Paper Mario
Chance 0 - He's deconfirmed. Already playable when you use Mario on Flat Zone
Ok, ok, I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it guys. Here's my real rating
Chance 10 - I don't see this as likely. I know we usually get a promotional pick, but the issue is that we normally get a pick like that at the end of DLC, not at the start, as we've seen with Corrin and Byleth. I swear I saw a Sakurai quote on this a while ago but I have no clue where I'd even find it back. Origami King will likely be over a year old by the time we get to that point so I don't see that spot going to him. So yeah, I don't think Origami King makes him any more likely. So what's the problem otherwise? I think Nintendo/Sakurai might be worried that people will see him as just Mario again and not want to buy the character. We haven't gotten any characters like that before so I wonder if that's a hang up to them
Want 0 - I don't want another Mario in the game, especially as DLC. Yes, yes, I know. He'll have a different moveset. Yes, I know he's not exactly Mario. Yes, I understand that the fact he's Mario is basically just cosmetic. And yet, I still don't really care. He's still Mario. I'd rather not get more versions of characters already in the game. Same for more Links, Zeldas, Samuses(no clue the plural on that), Pits, etc. If you're another version of a character already in the game I just don't want you for DLC. Even if a lot of it is just cosmetics, the cosmetics still matter to me.
Captain Toad
Chance 10 - Dont feel like this one is gonna happen. Competition is too strong from his own series from Geno and Waluigi mainly. His fan support has been at a low recenty too with a lot of other 1st party reps being more popular at the moment. Sucks because I feel like there was a time where he probably should have gotten in but that might have passed
Want 50 - Very neutral on him. CT(I assume he's the same as the main Toad in the mario games at least) is pretty well known and at one point really should have gotten in. Some other games have passed him now though and it seems like Nintendo is fine with him just being in Peach's moveset.
Predictions
Crash 68%
Spyro - 15.21%
Noms
Riptor x5
Chance 0 - He's deconfirmed. Already playable when you use Mario on Flat Zone
Ok, ok, I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it guys. Here's my real rating
Chance 10 - I don't see this as likely. I know we usually get a promotional pick, but the issue is that we normally get a pick like that at the end of DLC, not at the start, as we've seen with Corrin and Byleth. I swear I saw a Sakurai quote on this a while ago but I have no clue where I'd even find it back. Origami King will likely be over a year old by the time we get to that point so I don't see that spot going to him. So yeah, I don't think Origami King makes him any more likely. So what's the problem otherwise? I think Nintendo/Sakurai might be worried that people will see him as just Mario again and not want to buy the character. We haven't gotten any characters like that before so I wonder if that's a hang up to them
Want 0 - I don't want another Mario in the game, especially as DLC. Yes, yes, I know. He'll have a different moveset. Yes, I know he's not exactly Mario. Yes, I understand that the fact he's Mario is basically just cosmetic. And yet, I still don't really care. He's still Mario. I'd rather not get more versions of characters already in the game. Same for more Links, Zeldas, Samuses(no clue the plural on that), Pits, etc. If you're another version of a character already in the game I just don't want you for DLC. Even if a lot of it is just cosmetics, the cosmetics still matter to me.
Captain Toad
Chance 10 - Dont feel like this one is gonna happen. Competition is too strong from his own series from Geno and Waluigi mainly. His fan support has been at a low recenty too with a lot of other 1st party reps being more popular at the moment. Sucks because I feel like there was a time where he probably should have gotten in but that might have passed
Want 50 - Very neutral on him. CT(I assume he's the same as the main Toad in the mario games at least) is pretty well known and at one point really should have gotten in. Some other games have passed him now though and it seems like Nintendo is fine with him just being in Peach's moveset.
Predictions
Crash 68%
Spyro - 15.21%
Noms
Riptor x5
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Paper Mario
15% Chance
Origami King gives him a recency buff. But the problems with Paper Mario still exist. Geno and Waluigi seem to be big competition, with both having rather strong fan support. If there were not other Mario characters that could surpass him in demand, then he would be higher. He still has moveset potential that might interest Sakurai and he has some legacy fan support, but thats kinda it. The fact that they explicitly made him quite different from Mario in Paper Jam also helps. His biggest boons are moveset potential and "repping the mario RPGs" (even if that claim nowadays is dubious)
0% Want
Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Back in the Sm4sh days, Paper Mario was one of my most wanted. When I could say that the series had one dud. When only Sticker Star existed. Then Color Splash came out, and my want wavered more. It looked like Nintendo did not listen to any of the complaints that people had with the series. Paper Jam being the worst Mario and Luigi game further soured me on the character.
Origami King killed my want for the character. The battle system looks bad, there is no exp. Watching the treehouse demo was torture, the game looks so boring. The writing does not have the wit that the first three games had. The game has no soul whatsoever. It feels like Nintendo likes the aesthetic concepts of Paper Mario, but not what Paper Mario was. I know Nintendo wanted to not have two Mario RPGs, but they let Mario and Luigi die with Alpha Dream. Why can't Paper Mario be good again. Heck, you could have stuck with Super Paper Mario's style! That was unique and different and cool. Why did you have to completely abandon that to make bad games?
I remember I made a good moveset for Paper Mario during Sm4sh. It had mechanics from all three gameplay styles then. Now? I can't see them not focus solely on the newer stuff. Paper Mario has been dead since Super Paper Mario.
Captain Toad
10% Chance
The good captain to me seems like a no go. The fact he is a background character on New Donk is already a bad sign for the Captain, although we could get a T Link sitch. To me, its just the fact that bigger Mario competition exists. Geno and Waluigi both have rabid popularity and would generate a lot more hype. It also does not help that while Captain Toad is doing well in the Mario franchise, I feel like Nintendo is keeping him a bit at arms length. Maybe its the fact he still is not in any of the Mario spin offs. idk.
60% Want
Ehh, he would be aight. Yoshiandtoad's moveset video is a good sell at least gameplay wise. It also would be nice to rep some more modern Nintendo successes. I guess my apprehension is due to the fact that he does not have that spark for me. Combine that with the fact that him getting in could mean someone I would want more wouldn't makes me a bit uneasy. Would be fine with him, but not elated.
Boss Rush x 5
Also gonna make some predictions real quick for once
Crash 73.33%
Spyro 11.11%
15% Chance
Origami King gives him a recency buff. But the problems with Paper Mario still exist. Geno and Waluigi seem to be big competition, with both having rather strong fan support. If there were not other Mario characters that could surpass him in demand, then he would be higher. He still has moveset potential that might interest Sakurai and he has some legacy fan support, but thats kinda it. The fact that they explicitly made him quite different from Mario in Paper Jam also helps. His biggest boons are moveset potential and "repping the mario RPGs" (even if that claim nowadays is dubious)
0% Want
Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Back in the Sm4sh days, Paper Mario was one of my most wanted. When I could say that the series had one dud. When only Sticker Star existed. Then Color Splash came out, and my want wavered more. It looked like Nintendo did not listen to any of the complaints that people had with the series. Paper Jam being the worst Mario and Luigi game further soured me on the character.
Origami King killed my want for the character. The battle system looks bad, there is no exp. Watching the treehouse demo was torture, the game looks so boring. The writing does not have the wit that the first three games had. The game has no soul whatsoever. It feels like Nintendo likes the aesthetic concepts of Paper Mario, but not what Paper Mario was. I know Nintendo wanted to not have two Mario RPGs, but they let Mario and Luigi die with Alpha Dream. Why can't Paper Mario be good again. Heck, you could have stuck with Super Paper Mario's style! That was unique and different and cool. Why did you have to completely abandon that to make bad games?
I remember I made a good moveset for Paper Mario during Sm4sh. It had mechanics from all three gameplay styles then. Now? I can't see them not focus solely on the newer stuff. Paper Mario has been dead since Super Paper Mario.
Captain Toad
10% Chance
The good captain to me seems like a no go. The fact he is a background character on New Donk is already a bad sign for the Captain, although we could get a T Link sitch. To me, its just the fact that bigger Mario competition exists. Geno and Waluigi both have rabid popularity and would generate a lot more hype. It also does not help that while Captain Toad is doing well in the Mario franchise, I feel like Nintendo is keeping him a bit at arms length. Maybe its the fact he still is not in any of the Mario spin offs. idk.
60% Want
Ehh, he would be aight. Yoshiandtoad's moveset video is a good sell at least gameplay wise. It also would be nice to rep some more modern Nintendo successes. I guess my apprehension is due to the fact that he does not have that spark for me. Combine that with the fact that him getting in could mean someone I would want more wouldn't makes me a bit uneasy. Would be fine with him, but not elated.
Boss Rush x 5
Also gonna make some predictions real quick for once
Crash 73.33%
Spyro 11.11%
Laniv
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Apr 20, 2014
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- 1,993
Paper Mario:
Chance: 42%
Good ol' Paper Mario has always been in a weird spot for Smash. He always feels like one of the more likely Mario characters, but he tends to fizzle out every time. Now that he's got a new game coming, things seem like they're looking up, but it's no guarantee either.
Want: 52%
Eh, I'm fine either way. It'd be interesting to see how a super-lightweight character like him would play. If nothing else, I wanna whack people with a paper hammer.
Captain Toad:
Chance: 36%
Okay, I'll admit it, his appearance on New Donk City kinda puts a damper on things. But at the same time, he doesn't really interact with the stage or the fighters, so it is possible he can pull a Toon Link/Alfonzo and still show up.
Want: 97%
The only reason I took off 3% is because if I personally had to choose, I'd choose regular Toad over the Captain. That said, a playable Toad of any vocation is long overdue for the series.
And yes, I think Captain Toad and the Toad are different characters >:T
Predictions:
Crash: 63% Chance, 82% Want
Spyro: 47% Chance, 65% Want
Nominate Taranza x 5
Chance: 42%
Good ol' Paper Mario has always been in a weird spot for Smash. He always feels like one of the more likely Mario characters, but he tends to fizzle out every time. Now that he's got a new game coming, things seem like they're looking up, but it's no guarantee either.
Want: 52%
Eh, I'm fine either way. It'd be interesting to see how a super-lightweight character like him would play. If nothing else, I wanna whack people with a paper hammer.
Captain Toad:
Chance: 36%
Okay, I'll admit it, his appearance on New Donk City kinda puts a damper on things. But at the same time, he doesn't really interact with the stage or the fighters, so it is possible he can pull a Toon Link/Alfonzo and still show up.
Want: 97%
The only reason I took off 3% is because if I personally had to choose, I'd choose regular Toad over the Captain. That said, a playable Toad of any vocation is long overdue for the series.
And yes, I think Captain Toad and the Toad are different characters >:T
Predictions:
Crash: 63% Chance, 82% Want
Spyro: 47% Chance, 65% Want
Nominate Taranza x 5
YoshiandToad
Smash Hero
Ayyyy, I'll take that bud. Thanks for the consideration and the viewing!
On to the Paper Boy!
This boy is absolutely shredded
Chance: 37%
So I mentioned in my Captain Toad rating that I felt like only a few characters are likely going to be picked by Nintendo to celebrate Mario's 35th Anniversary.
Paper Mario is one such fellow. For who better to celebrate Mario's Anniversary than Mario himself? Hell, according to Origami King he can even bring his own confetti.
Origami King is a title Nintendo are pushing forward right now, and in a pretty dry year overall thus far with only Animal Crossing New Horizons and a pair of ports in Xenoblade and TMS #FE (awful name) to rival it, there's not a hell of a lot of recent competition for Nintendo's big seller this year thus far.
That said, I doubt Paper Mario will outsell Animal Crossing this year but that's a different kettle of fish.
So from the promotional side of things and from the Mario Anniversary side of things Paper Mario is looking in a pretty comfortable spot. I'd easily say he's the most likely Mario newcomer right this second...but he hasn't just got to compete with other Mario newcomers or even only other Nintendo characters.
There's also the fact that much like Toad, Paper Mario has been a character requested for a damn long time, and exactly like Toad(and Waluigi thinking about it) he's been passed over for other options including Daisy, Piranha Plant, Rosalina and Dr. Mario. That last one is a bit of a sticking point too. Whilst Sakurai has slapped three Links in the game before and called it a day(Zelda representation is dreadful, we'll save that for another day), I'm not sure how a third Mario would go down, even though Paper would likely play entirely different to his contemporaries.
Lastly, even though it's Mario's 35th anniversary and there's rumours aplenty, there's the completely feasible thought that there might not be any Mario character at all.
Want: 65%
Awkward.
I, like many people, really loved Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, but I'll admit I didn't really follow the series past that. I played some of Paper Mario 64 on the Virtual Console and tried Super Paper Mario but couldn't get past the horrible geometric shapes which frankly is an aesthetic I cannot get on board with at all.
The Paper Mario of today isn't quite the same one.
He'd still have his hammer and maybe a jump attack, but for me Paper Mario's greatest appeal was the ability to use partners. I'm glad Origami King is sort of bringing them back even if they're only temporary power ups. I feel like a Paper Mario of today would likely not include partners as a mechanic of any kind, and that puts a dampner on his appeal to me.
I'm not quite in the 'This series is dead to me' base yet, as I never gave Sticker Star or Color Splash a try(lucky me apparently) but I feel like I'll give Origami King a fair go before deciding if the new version is for me or not. Hell, I may love it. I have a massive soft spot for Toad after all!
I'm also not a fan of the idea of three of any character whilst other reoccurring individuals have yet to get in once. I don't like it with Link, I don't like it with Mario and I'm not even a big fan of Samus or Zelda having two vastly different playstyle versions of themselves. Had Dr. Mario not existed I'd bump Paper Mario up to 80%. Hell, I'd rather we have Paper Mario than the pointless Dr. Mario clone. I'd almost rather we had ANY Mario character than the pointless Dr. Mario clone.
Lastly truth be told, the thing I want most from a Paper Mario inclusion more than the fighter himself is the theatre stage with the audience cheering for you in the foreground. Bonus points if that stage was the Glitz Pit.
Predictions for tomorrow:
Crash: 66%
Spyro: 18%
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Guynamednelson
Smash Legend
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Classic moveset. Pointless. Pick one.
Drason
Smash Journeyman
Paper Mario
Chance: 20%
A spin-off version of the most recognizeable characters in gaming? Yeah, I can see it. Not to mention he has a completely different set of moves than the original Mario that seems pretty versatile. The only problem I can see in his inclusion is the reception of his most recent games, where the fans...didn't seem to take too kindly to it.
Want:40%
I've loved him since playing Thousand-Year Door and thought he should've been included a long-time ago. He would work so well as a new Close-Combat fighter if they take his moveset from the first 2 games. There's also the new Origami King game which gives him a new set of long ranged moves and probably some new abilities that will change up the meta.
Captain Toad
Chance:5%
I get he's part of a new spinoff franchise and everything but I can't see it happening. He's a background character in a stage being the first big red flag but the second is his moveset. He really doesn't seem to have a lot of option in terms of variety and being so small with slow speed means he would probably end up as a joke character which for DLC is a no go.
Want:0%
I have no interest in this character being honest.He's fun for his side games but as of now don't really have a stake in him as a Smash character.
Nom: Yoshimitsu
Chance: 20%
A spin-off version of the most recognizeable characters in gaming? Yeah, I can see it. Not to mention he has a completely different set of moves than the original Mario that seems pretty versatile. The only problem I can see in his inclusion is the reception of his most recent games, where the fans...didn't seem to take too kindly to it.
Want:40%
I've loved him since playing Thousand-Year Door and thought he should've been included a long-time ago. He would work so well as a new Close-Combat fighter if they take his moveset from the first 2 games. There's also the new Origami King game which gives him a new set of long ranged moves and probably some new abilities that will change up the meta.
Captain Toad
Chance:5%
I get he's part of a new spinoff franchise and everything but I can't see it happening. He's a background character in a stage being the first big red flag but the second is his moveset. He really doesn't seem to have a lot of option in terms of variety and being so small with slow speed means he would probably end up as a joke character which for DLC is a no go.
Want:0%
I have no interest in this character being honest.He's fun for his side games but as of now don't really have a stake in him as a Smash character.
Nom: Yoshimitsu
YoshiandToad
Smash Hero
Pointless.
The tornado isn't worth a whole character alone. Could have just made that Luigi exclusive.
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ZTurtle
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2015
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- 276
Cap'n Toad
Chance: 10%
Unless there's a Captain Toad sequel in the works we don't know about, I don't really see Nintendo being particularly compelled to put him in the spotlight as DLC. I don't think it's impossible since the Switch port of Captain Toad is still a thing, and Toad is an incredibly iconic character, but I have a hard time seeing it.
Want: 30%
Wouldn't mind him terribly, but he wouldn't set my world on fire either. We do have a lot of Mario characters as is, and while I think Toad representation is certainly warranted considering his pedigree, it's not something I personally desire.
Paper Mario
Chance: 70%
Yeah, I can see it. It's a little cynical to say, but I think that if there's a new high-profile first-party game for Nintendo to advertise, that's motivation enough for Nintendo to put a character on the roster to promote it. After all, we got Byleth even though there was a known Fire Emblem fatigue in the Smash fanbase, because I'm sure Nintendo felt that the benefits of promoting Three Houses would outweigh the short-term disappointment from a chunk of the fanbase. Paper Mario also has the advantage of being a reasonably requested fighter to begin with, and I believe he got a decent amount of support in the Smash ballot.
I do have some doubts though considering the controversy surrounding recent Paper Marios, and the fact that Origami King does feel a little more low-key, though the latter may just be me.
Want: 20%
I did very much enjoy the first three Paper Mario games, but he was never someone I particularly wanted. I have no opinion on the recent Paper Mario games as I've never played them, but the negative air from the fanbase surrounding them certainly doesn't make him much more desirable for me, especially considering how the recent games would likely be the bulk of his moveset. And again, we do have a lot of Mario characters, and another Mario doesn't sound particularly appealing to me even though he does represent a unique sub-series of the franchise.
Chance: 10%
Unless there's a Captain Toad sequel in the works we don't know about, I don't really see Nintendo being particularly compelled to put him in the spotlight as DLC. I don't think it's impossible since the Switch port of Captain Toad is still a thing, and Toad is an incredibly iconic character, but I have a hard time seeing it.
Want: 30%
Wouldn't mind him terribly, but he wouldn't set my world on fire either. We do have a lot of Mario characters as is, and while I think Toad representation is certainly warranted considering his pedigree, it's not something I personally desire.
Paper Mario
Chance: 70%
Yeah, I can see it. It's a little cynical to say, but I think that if there's a new high-profile first-party game for Nintendo to advertise, that's motivation enough for Nintendo to put a character on the roster to promote it. After all, we got Byleth even though there was a known Fire Emblem fatigue in the Smash fanbase, because I'm sure Nintendo felt that the benefits of promoting Three Houses would outweigh the short-term disappointment from a chunk of the fanbase. Paper Mario also has the advantage of being a reasonably requested fighter to begin with, and I believe he got a decent amount of support in the Smash ballot.
I do have some doubts though considering the controversy surrounding recent Paper Marios, and the fact that Origami King does feel a little more low-key, though the latter may just be me.
Want: 20%
I did very much enjoy the first three Paper Mario games, but he was never someone I particularly wanted. I have no opinion on the recent Paper Mario games as I've never played them, but the negative air from the fanbase surrounding them certainly doesn't make him much more desirable for me, especially considering how the recent games would likely be the bulk of his moveset. And again, we do have a lot of Mario characters, and another Mario doesn't sound particularly appealing to me even though he does represent a unique sub-series of the franchise.
Guynamednelson
Smash Legend
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But I don't like FLUDD or Luigi's physics. Then again I don't like how they half-ass Dr. Mario being stronger but slower. Good thing there's other characters to play as.
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
I dunno why people are so worried that Paper Mario would just have a modern-only moveset. Unless it turns out I've been living a lie and their moveset was pure Nuts & Bolts all along, if Banjo and Kazooie are any indication Sakurai would probably push, or at least go for a moveset inspired by the more well-remembered games. (Hell he would've considered scrapping Pac-Man altogether if he had to use the modern design.) Granted those are third parties, but then again they're third parties who actually have restrictions and agreements surrounding them, why would a moveset be forced on a first party character? That doesn't make any sense.
Actually, what example of a character only using their most recent material even exists, besides the characters who haven't had that much time to exist to begin with? There's characters who are updated to have newer material but their old stuff is never totally ignored or left behind. Does King K. Rool only have a moveset inspired by climbing and baseball? That was his most recent stuff before getting in. Does Ridley evolve like a Pokémon? Even Bowser Jr., probably the closest character to "new material only" [mostly so he can have the Koopalings as alts] STILL uses what he was originally known for in his Final Smash. So why would Paper Mario only have stuff from his unpopular entries and not his popular ones?
That doesn't mean there's no chance his content only surrounds Origami King (Spirits definitely, the stage is very likely to be OK inspired, music probably but with a few exceptions), in fact that's what I think I expect, but I don't expect Sakurai to churn out a nightmare scenario moveset like everybody else thinks. I won't rate him under the assumption that we're getting an OK (or SS to OK) PM only, as a result.
Awawawawawa AAAAAAH
Chance (CToad): 10%. Captain Toad is in between a rock and a hard place, like Master Chief was during the Steve/Banjo wars. He doesn't boast the relevance of Paper Mario, nor does he have even half the fan demand keeping Geno and Waluigi in the conversation. Worse still, if they do decide they want a Mario character and don't want it to be a predictable one, he's still too predictable to be a true "what!?" pick, if they want a Toad... they'll just do Toad. If they want a Toad that's a dedicated character... they'll do Toadette. The Mario franchise has a massive berth of characters to choose from before taking into account characters who debatably count like Dixie Kong, Poochy, Ashley... I really cannot think of a reason for them to pick Captain Toad at all.
Want (CToad): 15%. I don't see the appeal of a Little Mac 2.0, considering how badly the attempt to make a character with a non-existant air game went last time. Jumpless, worst jump in the game or whatever, we tried it once, it turns out it isn't compatible with how Smash plays. Not casually since it makes him basically unusable for boss battles or any platforming for that matter, not competitively since it dooms him to bottom tier and a camp fest where his opponent aircamps him... I would just prefer it if they did the normal Toad, maybe with an alt referencing the Captain. While I don't expect him to have a good jump, I at least think the normal Toad isn't destined for Little Mac 2.0. I think the fan movesets surrounding him prove he's at least capable of being in, but I doubt his playstyle will be very enjoyable to me.
Flat character
Chance (PM): 45%. If Assists and Mii Costumes are out, and Geno's Mii Costume comes back (I think it will), then I would bet on this guy as the likeliest Mario character. Pretty much the only reason not to consider this guy even on the table was because he was a Spirit. Now... I feel like this guy is actually in a pretty good position. He's got an upcoming release, he has legacy popularity (it wouldn't surprise me if he actually outperformed Geno in the ballot, Geno went through a major slump during Smash 4 a lot of people forget about) and boatloads of stuff for Sakurai to work with for a moveset. I think he's got an earnest shot. I think he's probably among the three likeliest first party newcomers with no strings attached, top five in general among first parties, and while I will go higher on individual third parties I probably won't go very high.
Want (PM): 80%. I dunno about you guys, but I still believe the 2D challenger would be an incredible choice for the great fray. Despite their positions as fandom bogeymen, I see the new titles as even more content to work with for a moveset, which is something I think the guy wins in against pretty much every newcomer... except like, Maxwell. I trust Sakurai to make something that doesn't shun the new games nor deny the legacy of the original three. So, while others are waning in desire for him, I still think he's gonna be a great inclusion, and most fears are unfounded considering how the series goes.
I wonder if this comes across as hypocritical? I don't expect Paper Mario to reference solely his less popular games, but I do expect Captain Toad to have an overcentralizing playstyle that isn't very fun. Eh, one's about animations and references, the other is about the execution.
Frisk x 5. Crash is actually going to drop because Min Min shook things up, I think. 45.82%. Spyro is just as unlikely as before, 5.76%.
Actually, what example of a character only using their most recent material even exists, besides the characters who haven't had that much time to exist to begin with? There's characters who are updated to have newer material but their old stuff is never totally ignored or left behind. Does King K. Rool only have a moveset inspired by climbing and baseball? That was his most recent stuff before getting in. Does Ridley evolve like a Pokémon? Even Bowser Jr., probably the closest character to "new material only" [mostly so he can have the Koopalings as alts] STILL uses what he was originally known for in his Final Smash. So why would Paper Mario only have stuff from his unpopular entries and not his popular ones?
That doesn't mean there's no chance his content only surrounds Origami King (Spirits definitely, the stage is very likely to be OK inspired, music probably but with a few exceptions), in fact that's what I think I expect, but I don't expect Sakurai to churn out a nightmare scenario moveset like everybody else thinks. I won't rate him under the assumption that we're getting an OK (or SS to OK) PM only, as a result.
Awawawawawa AAAAAAH
Chance (CToad): 10%. Captain Toad is in between a rock and a hard place, like Master Chief was during the Steve/Banjo wars. He doesn't boast the relevance of Paper Mario, nor does he have even half the fan demand keeping Geno and Waluigi in the conversation. Worse still, if they do decide they want a Mario character and don't want it to be a predictable one, he's still too predictable to be a true "what!?" pick, if they want a Toad... they'll just do Toad. If they want a Toad that's a dedicated character... they'll do Toadette. The Mario franchise has a massive berth of characters to choose from before taking into account characters who debatably count like Dixie Kong, Poochy, Ashley... I really cannot think of a reason for them to pick Captain Toad at all.
Want (CToad): 15%. I don't see the appeal of a Little Mac 2.0, considering how badly the attempt to make a character with a non-existant air game went last time. Jumpless, worst jump in the game or whatever, we tried it once, it turns out it isn't compatible with how Smash plays. Not casually since it makes him basically unusable for boss battles or any platforming for that matter, not competitively since it dooms him to bottom tier and a camp fest where his opponent aircamps him... I would just prefer it if they did the normal Toad, maybe with an alt referencing the Captain. While I don't expect him to have a good jump, I at least think the normal Toad isn't destined for Little Mac 2.0. I think the fan movesets surrounding him prove he's at least capable of being in, but I doubt his playstyle will be very enjoyable to me.
Flat character
Chance (PM): 45%. If Assists and Mii Costumes are out, and Geno's Mii Costume comes back (I think it will), then I would bet on this guy as the likeliest Mario character. Pretty much the only reason not to consider this guy even on the table was because he was a Spirit. Now... I feel like this guy is actually in a pretty good position. He's got an upcoming release, he has legacy popularity (it wouldn't surprise me if he actually outperformed Geno in the ballot, Geno went through a major slump during Smash 4 a lot of people forget about) and boatloads of stuff for Sakurai to work with for a moveset. I think he's got an earnest shot. I think he's probably among the three likeliest first party newcomers with no strings attached, top five in general among first parties, and while I will go higher on individual third parties I probably won't go very high.
Want (PM): 80%. I dunno about you guys, but I still believe the 2D challenger would be an incredible choice for the great fray. Despite their positions as fandom bogeymen, I see the new titles as even more content to work with for a moveset, which is something I think the guy wins in against pretty much every newcomer... except like, Maxwell. I trust Sakurai to make something that doesn't shun the new games nor deny the legacy of the original three. So, while others are waning in desire for him, I still think he's gonna be a great inclusion, and most fears are unfounded considering how the series goes.
I wonder if this comes across as hypocritical? I don't expect Paper Mario to reference solely his less popular games, but I do expect Captain Toad to have an overcentralizing playstyle that isn't very fun. Eh, one's about animations and references, the other is about the execution.
Frisk x 5. Crash is actually going to drop because Min Min shook things up, I think. 45.82%. Spyro is just as unlikely as before, 5.76%.
Cosmic77
Smash Hero
Honestly, I think people are judging Paper Mario too harshly just because they don't like the latest installments.
To be clear, the quality of a game has little to no impact on a character's moveset potential. Just because a Pokemon came from SwSh doesn't mean they'll automatically have a crappy moveset. Likewise, Ganondorf never got a moveset most fans absolutely adored, despite the fact that he was added because one of the most beloved Zelda games to date came out close to Melee.
I agree, the new Paper Mario games don't feel as good as the new ones, but I strongly disagree with anyone who says that a moveset that incorporated a lot of attacks from the newer games would be boring. I'm not even sure if I agree with anyone who says the best moveset for Paper Mario would focus on partners. He has a ton of unique abilities, such as folding himself into various objects (paper airplane, paper boat, paper shuriken, etc.), folding his arms to make them longer, and of course, using his hammer in various different ways. I'm not really sure how I'd feel if they made Mario's recovery be Parakarry or his side special be Bobbery exploding. Yeah, I'm sure older fans would appreciate it, but that doesn't feel like a Paper Mario moveset — making a character capable of doing so much be mostly dependent on partners who are admittedly not much different from their generic mook counterparts?
Partners are important, but they're not the only notable feature in the Paper Mario series. Hate me for saying it, but I actually think the emphasis on paper from the newer games opens the gates to a much more interesting and orginal moveset.
To be clear, the quality of a game has little to no impact on a character's moveset potential. Just because a Pokemon came from SwSh doesn't mean they'll automatically have a crappy moveset. Likewise, Ganondorf never got a moveset most fans absolutely adored, despite the fact that he was added because one of the most beloved Zelda games to date came out close to Melee.
I agree, the new Paper Mario games don't feel as good as the new ones, but I strongly disagree with anyone who says that a moveset that incorporated a lot of attacks from the newer games would be boring. I'm not even sure if I agree with anyone who says the best moveset for Paper Mario would focus on partners. He has a ton of unique abilities, such as folding himself into various objects (paper airplane, paper boat, paper shuriken, etc.), folding his arms to make them longer, and of course, using his hammer in various different ways. I'm not really sure how I'd feel if they made Mario's recovery be Parakarry or his side special be Bobbery exploding. Yeah, I'm sure older fans would appreciate it, but that doesn't feel like a Paper Mario moveset — making a character capable of doing so much be mostly dependent on partners who are admittedly not much different from their generic mook counterparts?
Partners are important, but they're not the only notable feature in the Paper Mario series. Hate me for saying it, but I actually think the emphasis on paper from the newer games opens the gates to a much more interesting and orginal moveset.
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Guynamednelson
Smash Legend
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I don't think the people going "lol high quality animations" are assuming that a Gen 8 Pokemon would be badly animated in Smash.
or maybe they dont care, maybe theyre making the games they want to make rather than trying to recreate the hype of older games
nintendo dont
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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I don't think that's the concern. I haven't seen people expect PM to have a moveset solely inspired by TOK, or by SS onwards. I think the complaint is that it's very easy to give Paper Mario a one-size-fits-all moveset that represents all six PM games, and that could even be the likeliest, but that would come at the expense of partners, which is something that for many would make the moveset much better.
Genuinely curious, why do you think they'd go for solo Toadette over the Toad or Captain Toad?
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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Concept: A person of color x180
Tidus x155
Moogle x150
Nate Adams x135
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
Shuichi Saihara x116
150 - 101
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Ezio x105
100 - 51
[Rerate] Frisk x100
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x100
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Echo: Xion (Sora) x67
Billy Hatcher x65
Sakura Shinguji x63
The Terrarian x60
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Riptor x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Giygas x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x40
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Concept: Deltarune content x37
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Klonoa x35
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x30
Concept: Rocket League rep x30
Concept: Returning stages x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x25
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x25
[Rerate] Monokuma x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Yoshimitsu x15
Hades x15
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
John Marston x10
Dr. Goomba Tower x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Tidus x155
Moogle x150
Nate Adams x135
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
Shuichi Saihara x116
150 - 101
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Ezio x105
100 - 51
[Rerate] Frisk x100
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x100
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Echo: Xion (Sora) x67
Billy Hatcher x65
Sakura Shinguji x63
The Terrarian x60
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Riptor x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Giygas x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x40
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Concept: Deltarune content x37
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Klonoa x35
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x30
Concept: Rocket League rep x30
Concept: Returning stages x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x25
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x25
[Rerate] Monokuma x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Yoshimitsu x15
Hades x15
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
John Marston x10
Dr. Goomba Tower x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Shuichi Saihara gets into the top 7, tied for last place against Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content.
Ezio climbs past 100 noms.
Jin Kazama, Monokuma, Concept: Boss Rush, and Concept: Rocket League rep break out of the under 25 club.
Your infernal challengers for the day are Hades and Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep, both starting out strong with 15 noms.
waddledeeonredyoshi
I'm assuming that this Hades is the one from Kid Icarus, right?chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
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- Sep 30, 2018
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- 8,271
Abstain. I don't have an opinion on these guys.
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Technically when I said they'd just do a Toad, that included the Toad, since the distinction between them varies from almost minimal to literally none.
Now Toadette is the big thing that I previously would agree is strange, but I think there's an actual case for her now.
She's been getting a push relatively recently. What with the infamous Peachette quite literally being the selling point behind New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe, and prominence through Super Mario Maker 2 featuring her as an important figure in its "story" mode and as a playable character in both, Toadette's made a jump that even Waluigi (who massively trumps her in demand) and debatably Daisy (unless you really count not even a minute in Super Mario Land) have yet to follow in; she's in the mainline platformers, acting alongside Mario and Luigi. SMM2 proving that for the foreseeable future that wasn't a lucky break, as well as separating her from Nabbit in a "gotcha" situation is why I think she might be in consideration.
Helps she's also in Captain Toad's games, so she doubles as a representative for them as well. Granted she probably wouldn't get in over Captain Toad if she exclusively pulled from there, but in general I think Toadette's more well rounded and capable (appealing to Sakurai) and in more prominent games (appealing to Nintendo). That's not to say Captain Toad has no chance, but I don't think they'd put him in over Toadette. Let alone a normal Toad.
Granted she's already a Master Spirit but I feel like Min Min opened the door to all of them since the difference isn't that much.
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
You got that wrongo mongo. God Of War Hades all the way babyyyyy!Your infernal challengers for the day are Hades and Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep, both starting out strong with 15 noms.
But yes, it's KIU Hades.
amageish
Smash Master
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 3,558
Abstaining on chances today. Don't have time to give full thoughts.
Paper Mario Want: 80%. I find it sad how Paper Mario's getting low want scores from people who used to support him - especially as, if he gets in, it will likely be in no small part due to continued fan demand especially around the ballot era. Paper Mario? More like... Pawper of Monkey-rio... Um... Yeah, that joke didn't work; I apologize.
Anyway, I trust Sakurai enough that he'd have a well-rounded moveset. I skipped Sticker Star and Colour Splash, but may get Origami King on sale eventually... Paper Mario is cute and would be fun.
Captain Toad Want: 85%. Toad not being playable in any form in Smash Bros is weird, man. Captain Toad provides a solution to that while also providing fantastic moveset potential. I don't think I've seen two Captain Toad moveset concepts that are the exact same and it'd be so fascinating to see Sakurai give a crack at this moveset himself. Also I play as Toadette in most Mario spin-offs anyway and would enjoy mind her captain equivalent in Smash.
Noms: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Hoo Boy. Crash = 65% / Spyro = 25%.
Paper Mario Want: 80%. I find it sad how Paper Mario's getting low want scores from people who used to support him - especially as, if he gets in, it will likely be in no small part due to continued fan demand especially around the ballot era. Paper Mario? More like... Pawper of Monkey-rio... Um... Yeah, that joke didn't work; I apologize.
Anyway, I trust Sakurai enough that he'd have a well-rounded moveset. I skipped Sticker Star and Colour Splash, but may get Origami King on sale eventually... Paper Mario is cute and would be fun.
Captain Toad Want: 85%. Toad not being playable in any form in Smash Bros is weird, man. Captain Toad provides a solution to that while also providing fantastic moveset potential. I don't think I've seen two Captain Toad moveset concepts that are the exact same and it'd be so fascinating to see Sakurai give a crack at this moveset himself. Also I play as Toadette in most Mario spin-offs anyway and would enjoy mind her captain equivalent in Smash.
Noms: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Hoo Boy. Crash = 65% / Spyro = 25%.
- Joined
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- Messages
- 3,965
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- TCT~Phantom
It’s not about hype it’s about quality. SS and by extension CS were criticized heavily for their issues (too easy, departure from RPG formula, making battles pointless). Ask people which they prefer between TYYD and SS. I would bet the vast majority say TTYD.
Heck, SPM proves that you can depart and make a good game anyway.
The fact of the matter is SS and CS are bad games. OK does not look promising either. I don’t care if Nintendo are making the games they want if they suck. If you make something new make it good like SPM.
WeirdChillFever
Smash Hero
Tale as Fold as Time
Chance: 10%
I’m just gonna copy what others have said. While his chances seem good on paper, and his credentials should wrap up this challenge, Geno’s and Waluigi’s fanbase haven’t folded their cards and have delivered a cut to Paper’s popularity. Overall, his chances fall flat.
Want: 70%
I like Mario and have good memories of the original game. Plus, even if the moveset revolves more around the newer Paper Mario games, I’m sure the basics will remain intact. Also a Partner system in Smash was overrated anyway.
Captain Toad
Chance: 8%
I’m pessimistic. His spotlight has been stolen by so many other characters and unlike ARMS, his prime came far from too late.
Want: 100%
It‘s Toad of course I think he deserves it. While this particular incarnation may or may not be the Toad with stellar Mario Kart attendance, it’s close enough for me.
Dr. Goomba Tower X5
Chance: 10%
I’m just gonna copy what others have said. While his chances seem good on paper, and his credentials should wrap up this challenge, Geno’s and Waluigi’s fanbase haven’t folded their cards and have delivered a cut to Paper’s popularity. Overall, his chances fall flat.
Want: 70%
I like Mario and have good memories of the original game. Plus, even if the moveset revolves more around the newer Paper Mario games, I’m sure the basics will remain intact. Also a Partner system in Smash was overrated anyway.
Captain Toad
Chance: 8%
I’m pessimistic. His spotlight has been stolen by so many other characters and unlike ARMS, his prime came far from too late.
Want: 100%
It‘s Toad of course I think he deserves it. While this particular incarnation may or may not be the Toad with stellar Mario Kart attendance, it’s close enough for me.
Dr. Goomba Tower X5
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there in lies the problem, quality is subjective. the games must still be selling well cause they keep going back to it and lets face it theres a lot of things that didnt do as well of arguer better quality that got forgotten
or intelligent systems is putting all their energy into FE now and paper is just a side thing.
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Captain Toad
Chance: 10%. This is hard to say, cause while there is a neat moveset as posted earlier, Nintendo aren't really pushing the character much at all lately. There's no new games, etc. He's hardly impossible, though I'd love to see what Sakurai does with a character that can't really jump as an important character piece. Super low jumps? A gimmick-like animation to emphasize his abilities correctly?
Want: 5%. He's not Toad(and no, I haven't seen any reason to think they're remotely the same character. They're different characters with different abilities and their personality is only somewhat alike), and thus, I am not interested in him over Toad. It's not the same. I want the actual Toad playable. He's a different character, and is honestly a pretty cool one. I would be fine with him being in overall, since he's become a bit of an All-Star on his own. But he'll never be the same as getting the original character.
Paper Mario
Chance: 40%. Nintendo is sometimes pushing characters based upon upcoming games, and TOK was in development during when Fighter's Pass 2 is being worked on. So he has a good timing. He's also a rather coveted character, and like Captain Toad, is a different character from Mario(and officially has said in a game he's a different person too).
Want: 80%. I simply want Geno and Waluigi a bit more, but he'd be an amazing addition. He has 6 games full of unique abilities, and timing for some moves could be thrown in too. Albeit, that's the core gimmick of the various Mario rpg's thanks to Super Mario RPG's key influence in how the game works. Sure, TOK might not be the best ever, but it's still an rpg at heart that they simply refuse to call one, having the most important of elements, stats and a proper battle system where the stats matter. There's just a ton of stuff to go with. Badges, Partners, Stickers, Things, Pixls, etc. He has just that many options.
Chance: 10%. This is hard to say, cause while there is a neat moveset as posted earlier, Nintendo aren't really pushing the character much at all lately. There's no new games, etc. He's hardly impossible, though I'd love to see what Sakurai does with a character that can't really jump as an important character piece. Super low jumps? A gimmick-like animation to emphasize his abilities correctly?
Want: 5%. He's not Toad(and no, I haven't seen any reason to think they're remotely the same character. They're different characters with different abilities and their personality is only somewhat alike), and thus, I am not interested in him over Toad. It's not the same. I want the actual Toad playable. He's a different character, and is honestly a pretty cool one. I would be fine with him being in overall, since he's become a bit of an All-Star on his own. But he'll never be the same as getting the original character.
Paper Mario
Chance: 40%. Nintendo is sometimes pushing characters based upon upcoming games, and TOK was in development during when Fighter's Pass 2 is being worked on. So he has a good timing. He's also a rather coveted character, and like Captain Toad, is a different character from Mario(and officially has said in a game he's a different person too).
Want: 80%. I simply want Geno and Waluigi a bit more, but he'd be an amazing addition. He has 6 games full of unique abilities, and timing for some moves could be thrown in too. Albeit, that's the core gimmick of the various Mario rpg's thanks to Super Mario RPG's key influence in how the game works. Sure, TOK might not be the best ever, but it's still an rpg at heart that they simply refuse to call one, having the most important of elements, stats and a proper battle system where the stats matter. There's just a ton of stuff to go with. Badges, Partners, Stickers, Things, Pixls, etc. He has just that many options.
Cosmic77
Smash Hero
The issue people have with Paper Mario mostly stems from their hatred of the direction the franchise is going, not the character himself. Personally, I think that's a really crummy reason to dismiss a character.
SS, PJ, and CS being bad games (CS wasn't a bad game and is in a whole different league than SS, but that's besides the point) doesn't make Paper Mario himself a bad or less interesting character for Smash. Even if Sakurai focused exclusively on the newer titles, there's still tons of great material to work with when creating a moveset. In the context of OK, an up-Smash that involves Paper Mario launching confetti in the air sounds like a cool and fitting move for the character.
I get that people love TTYD — I do too — but we really need to move past the nostalgia and stop acting like anything worth putting in a moveset came from the first three games. Truth be told, the Paper Mario in the first three games felt more like "just another Mario" than the latest three games; it was a different artstyle at best. At least the heavy-emphasis-on-paper Paper Mario has several skills that regular Mario could never do.
SS, PJ, and CS being bad games (CS wasn't a bad game and is in a whole different league than SS, but that's besides the point) doesn't make Paper Mario himself a bad or less interesting character for Smash. Even if Sakurai focused exclusively on the newer titles, there's still tons of great material to work with when creating a moveset. In the context of OK, an up-Smash that involves Paper Mario launching confetti in the air sounds like a cool and fitting move for the character.
I get that people love TTYD — I do too — but we really need to move past the nostalgia and stop acting like anything worth putting in a moveset came from the first three games. Truth be told, the Paper Mario in the first three games felt more like "just another Mario" than the latest three games; it was a different artstyle at best. At least the heavy-emphasis-on-paper Paper Mario has several skills that regular Mario could never do.
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RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Example?
No offense, I keep hearing this, but I never get a straight answer.
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Cosmic77
Smash Hero
Like I said in one of my earlier posts, Paper Mario can transform and fold himself into various objects. An airplane, a boat, a shuriken, a drill, a rolled up piece of paper, etc. He can also fold his body down like a spring to jump really high, make copies of himself, and he can fold his arms to make them about as long as Min Min's.
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their personalities are identical
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SharkLord
Smash Hero
^
THIS
If we hated someone because of the direction their franchise was heading, we'd never get Banjo and Kazooie. And yet, here we are.
RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Here's the thing... the past newcomers since Smash for 3DS/Wii U nearly 100% rely on translating various recognizable, distinct, and defining mechanics and aspects of their game/their series (or in Pac-Man's case alone, their company.) You can look at any of their trailers and see bits and pieces of the design philosophy behind Smash newcomers.
I'm having an easy time seeing why the Paper Mario people are proposing - who has a very select few game-specific mechanics and then a mishmash of other stuff related to paper solely to sidestep a very obvious issue that comes with the way people are proposing he should be represented - wouldn't be well-received by many or even very likely to be something Sakurai would produce.
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Paper Mario
Abstaining from chance
Want: 0%
I honestly couldn't care less how unique he could be. At the end of the day, he's still Mario, and we have Mario on the roster twice already. I would be sorely disappointed if one of the final six characters was just "Mario but we added an adjective before his name again." Add into that the fact that there are numerous Mario characters I'd prefer, and you have a recipe for a terrible newcomer addition.
Abstaining from chance
Want: 0%
I honestly couldn't care less how unique he could be. At the end of the day, he's still Mario, and we have Mario on the roster twice already. I would be sorely disappointed if one of the final six characters was just "Mario but we added an adjective before his name again." Add into that the fact that there are numerous Mario characters I'd prefer, and you have a recipe for a terrible newcomer addition.
warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
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Captain Toad
Chance: 0%
I think the ship has sailed on this one. His fan support is down and he seems less relevant than he was in the base roster. What's worse for him is that his competition for spirit upgrades are literally the #1 most requested character and the guy who was confirmed to have barely missed out on the base roster, and yeah
Want: 15%
Not really against his inclusion, but this is 100% a character that I would rather see in the base roster. Captain Toad does not get me hyped for the pass.
Paper Mario:
Chance: abstain
Want: 0%
I'd really rather not pay for another variation of a character we already have in Smash. Same thing goes for BOTW Zelda, Pig Ganon, Blue/Dry Bowser, Pink Gold Peach, or any Baby Character. Yeah, Paper Mario does have a much better case than all of them but maybe BOTW Zelda, but you get my point. Same thing if Dr. Mario and Young/Toon Link weren't in the base game for some reason. I wouldn't have been that excited to see them as paid DLC either. It doesn't matter to me if Paper Mario would play differently than Mario, I don't think getting another version of Mario(or any other character we already have in the game for that matter) is the best use of a DLC slot.
Noms Rocket League Rep x5
Chance: 0%
I think the ship has sailed on this one. His fan support is down and he seems less relevant than he was in the base roster. What's worse for him is that his competition for spirit upgrades are literally the #1 most requested character and the guy who was confirmed to have barely missed out on the base roster, and yeah
Want: 15%
Not really against his inclusion, but this is 100% a character that I would rather see in the base roster. Captain Toad does not get me hyped for the pass.
Paper Mario:
Chance: abstain
Want: 0%
I'd really rather not pay for another variation of a character we already have in Smash. Same thing goes for BOTW Zelda, Pig Ganon, Blue/Dry Bowser, Pink Gold Peach, or any Baby Character. Yeah, Paper Mario does have a much better case than all of them but maybe BOTW Zelda, but you get my point. Same thing if Dr. Mario and Young/Toon Link weren't in the base game for some reason. I wouldn't have been that excited to see them as paid DLC either. It doesn't matter to me if Paper Mario would play differently than Mario, I don't think getting another version of Mario(or any other character we already have in the game for that matter) is the best use of a DLC slot.
Noms Rocket League Rep x5
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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I really don't see how any of that helps her. She isn't as well rounded as regular Toad, who can do everything she can and more due to his longer history; and she isn't as focused as Captain, which makes it easier to think a moveset for him. And as big games go, I don't think NSMBU is a big deal in Nintendo's eyes. Mario Maker made her into one of the player characters, which is a huge deal, but it just puts her on the same level as Toad, not above.
Color Splash sold abysmally even by Wii U standards, so they're continuing the series because it has Mario on the title and there's not a lot of risk involved.
If they don't even want to make an RPG I doubt they're making one.
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jamesster445
Smash Lord
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Paper Mario
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%
Paper Mario has been a requested character for awhile now. And it's also worth pointing out that as a Mario RPG rep, he can represent certain mechanics such as action commands and timed hits. But as a bonus, he is 1st party which means that Nintendo doesn't have to deal with third parties. But more importantly, Paper Mario has a potential future. That said, I don't really care either way.
Captain Toad
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%
Toad has been one of those characters that should've been in a long time ago. I know everyone jokes about how the Plant screwed over Waluigi, but I'd argue that Toad was screwed way more. And Toad, or should I say Captain Toad, is one of the few Mario characters that have their own game. So Yeah I'd like to see Captain Toad or any Toad for that matter in Smash.
Nominations: Jin Kazama x5
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%
Paper Mario has been a requested character for awhile now. And it's also worth pointing out that as a Mario RPG rep, he can represent certain mechanics such as action commands and timed hits. But as a bonus, he is 1st party which means that Nintendo doesn't have to deal with third parties. But more importantly, Paper Mario has a potential future. That said, I don't really care either way.
Captain Toad
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%
Toad has been one of those characters that should've been in a long time ago. I know everyone jokes about how the Plant screwed over Waluigi, but I'd argue that Toad was screwed way more. And Toad, or should I say Captain Toad, is one of the few Mario characters that have their own game. So Yeah I'd like to see Captain Toad or any Toad for that matter in Smash.
Nominations: Jin Kazama x5
Paper Mario
Chance:anstain
Honestly just don't know, he has a new game coming, but he would be our third Mario. His games are fun from what I've played (Thousand year door, Colour Splash, Super) but there's also been a lot of negativity surrounding it recently. Not to mention every other non RPG Mario game completely ignores it. But Smash did give it a stage so who knows.
Want: 15%
He's a better choice than the more common Mario RPG character suggested. But him being Mario doesn't interest me as but as completely separate character. King Boo is my most wanted Mario character.
Captain Toad
Chance 15%
Another tough call, but I'll try and make it. Captain Toad has become the defacto Toad in 3D Mario. And he has his own game now. But requests aren't as high as other characters, and honestly I just don't think he's a great fit for DLC, especially with how much Mario we already have.
Want 50%
He's pretty cool, again King Boo is my most wanted Mario character but I wouldn't be upset by this. I'd hope he comes with a Toadette alt and I'd be curious by how they handle his jumping problem.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Prediction
Crash 49%
Spyro 12%
Chance:anstain
Honestly just don't know, he has a new game coming, but he would be our third Mario. His games are fun from what I've played (Thousand year door, Colour Splash, Super) but there's also been a lot of negativity surrounding it recently. Not to mention every other non RPG Mario game completely ignores it. But Smash did give it a stage so who knows.
Want: 15%
He's a better choice than the more common Mario RPG character suggested. But him being Mario doesn't interest me as but as completely separate character. King Boo is my most wanted Mario character.
Captain Toad
Chance 15%
Another tough call, but I'll try and make it. Captain Toad has become the defacto Toad in 3D Mario. And he has his own game now. But requests aren't as high as other characters, and honestly I just don't think he's a great fit for DLC, especially with how much Mario we already have.
Want 50%
He's pretty cool, again King Boo is my most wanted Mario character but I wouldn't be upset by this. I'd hope he comes with a Toadette alt and I'd be curious by how they handle his jumping problem.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Prediction
Crash 49%
Spyro 12%
TenghsienYang
Smash Cadet
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Paper Mario
Want: 50%
Chance: 50%
It'd be very interesting if Paper Mario was Fighter #81. '81 is when Mario made his debut, and if Paper Mario is the final fighter, it would kind of make the roster go full circle: the first and last fighters are Mario. Mario IS Mr. Nintendo, so IMO I wouldn't blame Nintendo if they put another version of Mario in there, granted he has a unique moveset. Plus we already have three Links. Mario only has Dr. Mario, and Luigi's been altered to the point he's not even a semi-clone anymore (he only really shares two specials with Mario now, and even those two function drastically different than Mario's)
He'd also actually be kind of a WTF character, since he's flat like Mr. Game and Watch, who still holds the sole title to this day. Only downside is that there's now three modern Paper Mario games and three 'classic' Paper Mario games, and I feel they're more likely to give PM a moveset based on the newer games. Then again, Sakurai gave a lot of characters justice, and opted for more of their classic forms (eg Pacman, Simon, Ken, and most of the DLC).
Captain Toad
Want: 60%
Chance: 50%
Captain Toad will fill the role of a playable Toad. People love to argue (and I totally get it) that Captain Toad can't jump. But remember "Ridley is too big"? At worst he could just have standard jumps worse than Little Mac, but decent alternatives to recovery. He could also have Toadette as an alt, too. Practically the entire core Mario cast are in except Toad and Waluigi.
I may be a little biased cause Mario is my favorite franchise, but it IS the face of Nintendo after all. I feel the Mario franchise is exempt from the "too many reps" rule. That didn't stop Fire Emblem and Pokemon.
Want: 50%
Chance: 50%
It'd be very interesting if Paper Mario was Fighter #81. '81 is when Mario made his debut, and if Paper Mario is the final fighter, it would kind of make the roster go full circle: the first and last fighters are Mario. Mario IS Mr. Nintendo, so IMO I wouldn't blame Nintendo if they put another version of Mario in there, granted he has a unique moveset. Plus we already have three Links. Mario only has Dr. Mario, and Luigi's been altered to the point he's not even a semi-clone anymore (he only really shares two specials with Mario now, and even those two function drastically different than Mario's)
He'd also actually be kind of a WTF character, since he's flat like Mr. Game and Watch, who still holds the sole title to this day. Only downside is that there's now three modern Paper Mario games and three 'classic' Paper Mario games, and I feel they're more likely to give PM a moveset based on the newer games. Then again, Sakurai gave a lot of characters justice, and opted for more of their classic forms (eg Pacman, Simon, Ken, and most of the DLC).
Captain Toad
Want: 60%
Chance: 50%
Captain Toad will fill the role of a playable Toad. People love to argue (and I totally get it) that Captain Toad can't jump. But remember "Ridley is too big"? At worst he could just have standard jumps worse than Little Mac, but decent alternatives to recovery. He could also have Toadette as an alt, too. Practically the entire core Mario cast are in except Toad and Waluigi.
I may be a little biased cause Mario is my favorite franchise, but it IS the face of Nintendo after all. I feel the Mario franchise is exempt from the "too many reps" rule. That didn't stop Fire Emblem and Pokemon.
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Iko MattOrr
Smash Champion
I don't think the no jump argument makes any sense both for and against Cpt Toad. The roster is filled with characters who can't normally jump in their origin game and if we need a similar case for the sake of comparison, look at Olimar, he can't jump either but he jumps fine in Smash.
About Paper Mario, I want to add that my low want score is indeed because I don't like the new direction of the series, but my point is not that it would be bland or anything, it's not even the partners. It's just that I don't want Paper Mario to be represented through the modern games only (or mostly), purely due to personal tastes. The moveset can be cool either ways but I don't want Mario to summon a realistic scotch tape for a final smash, if you know what I mean. The new Paper Mario games could be Mii games if it wasn't for the Mario characters sprites.
I know that Banjo is based on his classic game instead of Nuts & Bolt, but Banjo is a special case, it's a dead franchise who used to be on Nintendo, and people loved it when it was on Nintendo consoles... they obviously went with the version of the character that people were asking for. Paper Mario is instead an ongoing series with an ongoing marketing campaign (due to the new game), and no matter how much hated by the hardcore fans the new games are, that's the new identity of the franchise in the eyes of Nintendo, so that's how I expect the character to be represented.
About Paper Mario, I want to add that my low want score is indeed because I don't like the new direction of the series, but my point is not that it would be bland or anything, it's not even the partners. It's just that I don't want Paper Mario to be represented through the modern games only (or mostly), purely due to personal tastes. The moveset can be cool either ways but I don't want Mario to summon a realistic scotch tape for a final smash, if you know what I mean. The new Paper Mario games could be Mii games if it wasn't for the Mario characters sprites.
I know that Banjo is based on his classic game instead of Nuts & Bolt, but Banjo is a special case, it's a dead franchise who used to be on Nintendo, and people loved it when it was on Nintendo consoles... they obviously went with the version of the character that people were asking for. Paper Mario is instead an ongoing series with an ongoing marketing campaign (due to the new game), and no matter how much hated by the hardcore fans the new games are, that's the new identity of the franchise in the eyes of Nintendo, so that's how I expect the character to be represented.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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However, there is a distinction to be made in that Captain Toad isn't just unable to jump due to the mechanics of the game, but also that there's a canonical reason why he can't jump (his backpack is too heavy). That's a big aspect of his design as a character, and it separates him from characters like Olimar, Little Mac, and Link (in most games) because while those characters can't jump in-game, there isn't a reason why they couldn't jump, whereas there is with Captain Toad.