Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 476: Crash Bandicoot and Spyro the Dragon

Ridrool64

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I'mma ignore ARMS for the purpose of this rating, but I hope nobody was planning on nominating Concept: ARMS Rep without content in Ultimate, Concept: ARMS rep in general or something like that. Concept: ARMS Rep with content in Ultimate is still alive, though, since that encompasses all 5 characters who you'd expect to get in.

Slime the third

Chance: Straight up 0%. This character is beyond under the radar and I can't imagine why this guy was nominated. Nintendo would legitimately never pick this guy, simply because nobody's heard of him. I don't even know if his game came out in Japan.

Want: 30%. He'd be fun, I guess, but there's bigger fish to fry. And the last time I played his game was, what, 2007? I don't remember jack.

Paper Mario x 5. Crypto is de Blob the second: 0.73%.
 

TCT~Phantom

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Day will end around 3 PM EST.

Real quick going to give some thoughts.

Characters whose chance increases:

Rex and Waluigi make the most sense. If Spring Man is the upgrade in question, one of Waluigi's biggest hurdles is gone. Rex was mentioned in the same interview as Spring Man, so that makes sense too. I think both are way more likely.

I would also tentatively say Switch related stuff is a boon too. Expect boosts for the likes of Travis in my eyes as well, but also stuff like Bandana Dee even.

The big factor though is First Parties and potentially spirits are not off the table. Maybe they are less likely, but they still have a solid shot.
 
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Nice to see Nintendo make a good decision for once.
I wouldn't start getting hyped for Waluigi or Rex or Geno yet, though.
Screenshot_20200326-115424~2.png

There are still 10 characters from this list that aren't currently represented in Smash in any way. Though it is interesting that Nintendo is even implying that an Assist Trophy/Spirit could get promoted.

I feel like we should do individual re/ratings for all 15 of these characters because Nintendo hasn't done anything like this before.

Anyway, while I'm here, I'm gonna abstain from third party Inkling, predict the next character will get 1%, and nom a Gen 8 Pokemon 5 times.
 

Calamitas

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Gonna do today's rating really quick, before we move on. . .

The Blob, not from the movie of the same name

Chance: 0%
I'm sorry, but I am really not seeing his chances. A series with only two entries, with its only recent bit of notoriety being a port to the Switch? Not too likely. Demand for this character can't exactly be high, either.

Want: Abstain
I don't know enough about the series to make a proper call on the want score. I have seen what I presume is the main character every now and then, but I don't really have much of an idea on their potential playstyle and all that.

Predicting Crypto to get around 0.76%.

Nomating Concept: New Zelda character x5
 
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Ok, so to help people with their chance scores, I did some research and here's what's Arms related in Smash right now

Stages - Nothing, obviously. Excited to get one of these in and hope we get an announcer screaming KO every time someone dies

Music - Also nothing according to Smash wiki. Odd, but I guess that's going to get taken care of now

ATs - Spring Man only, so that that as you will

Mii Costumes - Spring Man and Ribbon Girl masks

Spirits - Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Twintelle, Ninjara


So there we go. Could get our first AT or spirit upgrade in June. Not a lot of content in the game as well, so that fairs well for characters who have basically nothing and could possibly resurrect someone like Akira if a spirit gets brought back since. Still feel the same on someone like Dixie who already has a metric crapton of stuff in the game from her series, and this is still a new playable series in the game as well, which 5/6 have been so far.

And for discussions sake, here are the ARMS fighters with nothing in the game:
Master Mummy
Mechanica
Kid Cobra
Byte and Barq
Helix
Max Brass
Lola Pop
Misango
Springtron
Dr. Coyle

Any front runners in there? Unsure really. Solid maybe to Helix, Springtron, and Kid Cobra I guess?

EDIT - I've been informed Dr. Coyle is the main antagonist so I'd guess she's pretty far up the list too
 
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Sid-cada

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Seeing as I was the main guy to nominate this, might as well through my hat into the ring before this becomes irrelevant

The blob

Chance - 0% - For a while, it looked like De Blob was going to be a major franchise during the Wii era. Two successful games in the same generation isn't something to sneeze at, with the first being a Wii exclusive (I think). Meanwhile, a TV show was announced and hidden from the world was a game that would have beaten Splatoon to the punch in terms of "Color the floor to win" games.

Then the parent company declared bankruptcy, and was sold off. The TV show and multiplayer game was canceled. The games have received nothing but ports, and the blob is left in the dust. I have very little doubt that there are more likely games to be considered, as now there is no one to care about it.

Want - 85% - I really enjoyed the game back when I was younger. While I admit that he doesn't have the strongest arsenal (only two attacks, a homing slam and a dash attack) he does have plenty of personality to make it fun and work out. Honestly, though, the game's music is one of it's biggest highlights; I don't think we'll ever see a soundtrack like that again. Honestly, he feels just like another Nintendo character, and I would have no problems with him getting right in.

Think I'll give no nominations, seeing how this will shape up.
 
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The Direct itself was lame as all hell. The only new Nintendo game announced was that stickman office game (which looks cool, but not such a big deal). Xenoblade looks great, but there wasn't much to reveal aside from the release date (which got leaked to all hell) and the new epilogue. Still looking gorgeous though. Bravely Default II, again, that game's probably a must-buy, but they just introduced the characters and told us that, indeed, it plays like Bravely Default. No release date either.

Edit: Oh yeah Burnout Paradise was neat too. That game's a classic.

Aside from that, the three Take-Two franchises getting on the Switch is very neat. I've already played most of those games so I won't get them on Switch but they're nice additions. I wish there had been more fanfare for some titles. Did Panzer Dragoon Remake really have to be a shadow drop? That game's a gem, give it proper marketing. I really, really dug that diver game from Capcom, will look into reviews and maybe get it.

Highlight for me was the ARMS reveal. I really wanted ARMS to get a playable character, and this bodes really well for my personal wants for a Fighter Pass (I was honestly considering just buying it today, but I'll wait a bit longer). Personally hoping for Spring Man, but this is already a win for me.

Anyway, Direct as a whole, 3/10, ARMS reveal 8/10 (would be higher with a trailer and the actual knowledge of who it'll be).

If we doing noms then Ryo it is
 
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I really dont have many takes on this direct. Not buying BD2, heard horrible things from my brother who I'm sure will weigh in soon. Pokemon didn't really show off anything we didn't already know. The job game(can't remember what the title was) looks fun and I might get it once I have good funds again. Bioshock and Boaderlands on the switch is cool since I havent played either series yet. Good timing on that since I'm noming Big Daddy right now

Arms getting a playable character in Smash is cool with me. I liked the game even though I didn't do much in it other than play random fights. It also completely shakes up the conversations now for FP2 which is awesome. Just sucks we have to wait until June for anything. Happy we got a big shake up and another unrepped 1st party series in the game though.

Noms:
Big Daddy x5
 
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Eh not much there in the direct for me personally, not a huge JRPG person so Bravely and Xenoblade didn’t really do much for me. Getting Panzer Dragoon finally was cool though I wish it would have had better marketing. I read that you have to download Xcom 2 to play it, which is kind of annoying.

The ARMS reveal was kind of anti-climactic but I guess we really aren’t at the real reveal yet. I’m guessing they didn’t reveal the actual character yet to get ARMS more exposure through people speculating and talking about the series. Not played ARMS but the music is good and some of the character designs are interesting. Guess we just gotta wait til June.

overall 4/10

noms:
Professor Layton x5
 
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3DSNinja

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I honestly didn't care much for the direct. I'm glad we have some more info on Xenoblade DE and Bravely Default 2.
The Arms rep is pretty awesome tho. I like ARMS, and it gives us a shakeup plus probably busts the AT rule out of the water. I really like us gettin Bioshock on Switch, and Borderlands is nice.
I am kinda bad we'll have to wait till June for more info, but what can ya do?

Noms: Minato Arisato x5
 
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I was not expecting a mini direct today, so here we go.

The direct was fun. I'm glad we are getting an Arms rep for smash. We need more Nintendo characters in smash.

The Gigantimax forms of the starters are quite powerful, and there is potential.

Many of the games sound quite fun, and we even get a few unexpected surprises.

Overall, a fun direct

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Concept: returning stages
 
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Since we don't have much that's actually been confirmed today, I figured I'd just skim the archives and give my two cents on what concepts to keep an eye on.

Alternate Costumes as DLC
This is an old one and many gave up on it, but now many are theorizing that the ARMS character might actually be several characters as alts of each other, a la Bowser Jr. or Hero.

Echo Fighters as DLC
Same as before, many are thinking that the ARMS character might actually be characters. That way the several unique mechanics each character has could properly be represented. Hell, if we get more than one Echo, this would technically make the character a low-key Echo Pass.

Crash Bandicoot
If anyone was looking at MandyCan's leak as a plus (to be fair, his last rating had many people outright ignore that leak), that's over now.

Fighting game characters
This is wonky since Sakurai doesn't consider Smash to be a traditional fighting game and ARMS is probably in the same boat. But it's worth mentioning that both Smash 4's DLC and FPV1 gave us 1 fighting game character.

Spring Man
Obviously

Assist Trophies and base game Spirits
The notion of them disconfirming is pending from a thread. Whoever the ARMS rep turns out to be will be the killing blow to one stance on them. On one hand, obviously getting a promotion kills the "they disconfirm" side. On the other, unless the character ends up being the protagonist of an unannounced ARMS 2, if they go out of their way to not promote an AT and Spirit, therefore avoiding basically the most popular characters in ARMS, that will be pretty damning for those hoping for promotions.

First parties in general
Last Pass Joker was the first character revealed, and Byleth as the sole exception, he was pretty indicative of what the rest of the Pass would be.

Big Daddy
The entire BioShock series is now on Switch, so Big Daddy's day will probably see much higher scores than he would have gotten before this Direct. This also applies to any character or series getting their first game on Switch just announced, but I couldn't find any others.

A character who isn't the star of their own game
This day, whenever it comes, will probably be a pretty large discussion on whether these kinds of characters can get in, and what that means for the ARMS rep.

We do have one confirmed concept, that being First-parties after the Fighter Pass. It got 71.20% chance and 79.55% want, so it seems like you guys were right, and glad to be.

I'll do noms in a bit.
 

Sari

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Only things that really interested me were Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition, Catherine: Full Body port, and the Smash news. The Star Wars ports, Bravely Default 2, and that one Ninja game were somewhat decent things to see but I really didn't care about anything else.

The Direct that aired in February of last year showed off some of the biggest games to expect for that year. Some of the ones off the top of my head included Mario Maker 2, Astral Chain, and Link's Awakening (not to mention a Sword/Shield reveal a week later). Today's Direct was nothing compared to that and while I know it's mainly because of the COVID-19 virus, this year is looking to be pretty lackluster.

I have no connection to ARMS but I'm pretty fine with it getting a character. It's a brand new and colorful Nintendo IP plus someone like Spring Man getting in would put an end to many assist trophy/spirit related debates. Here's hoping they get the Koopaling/Hero alt treatment.

Overall, pretty mediocre Direct and probably the worst one within the lifetime of the Switch.

4/10

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
 

Calamitas

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For me the Direct was overall a 7/10. I'll concede that with the ridicilous wait between last September and now, its actual contents were pretty underwhelming, but what was there was enough to satisfy me.

Xenoblade DE looks like almost all I wanted (not really a big fan of how the skin tones for several characters, most notably Sharla, are noticably lighter, for example, and I also don't like the forced connections to 2), and the fact that the long-rumored release date is true, after all really helps.

While I never played ARMS myself, I'm perfectly satisfied with getting a character from it as DLC. A first-party character to start the pass is just very promising to me, and I'll gladly take whoever it is from the game.

And lastly, I love how BD2 looks and am definitely looking forward to it. I'm still rather disappointed that it's not a follow-up to Bravely Second, but I'm willing to give this a shot, and will try the demo out later.

That's all points of interest for me personally.

Nomating Concept: New Zelda character x5
 
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Mini Direct reaction

For what it was, I enjoyed it. It was decent. Not a lot of things I was hyped about, but there were some things that piqued my interest. That DLC for Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 reminded me that I should give the game a try. I really like Marvel, I don't know why I haven't picked it up. Xenoblade Chronicles looks great. I have it for 3DS so I should really give it more of a chance and maybe, just maybe I will get the definitive version.

The big thing, of course, was Arms announced for Smash. On Twitter, Sakurai said for us to expect a fighter with 'unprecedented tactics". I'm curious to see what he means by that. I was never that interested in Arms, but I do like the designs of the characters and I'm looking forward to seeing how a Arms character translates to Smash.

Some of the smaller announcements were nice. Jedi Academy and Burnout Paradise interested me the most. Bioshock and Borderlands was hype. I beat the first Bioshock but never beaten the second game or Infinite. I tried Borderlands but couldn't get into it. But it's one of those games that is amazing to see run on the Switch. As for Bravely Default, I don't care for it, but it seems like it will be one of the biggest upcoming releases.

Overall, it was nothing groundbreaking, but considering the state of the world, it was pretty good and I was happy that we got a direct at all. If I had to give a rating, 6.5/10.

Edit: I forgot about Catherine's Full body. That is one game I'm seriously considering getting. I saw a playthrough of the game a long time ago and thankfully I forgot many of the plot details so I can pay for the game and it can still be a fresh experience, plus all the new Full Body content I've never seen.

If we are doing noms, Concept: Contra rep x5
 
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Ridrool64

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Not every direct is about you. This is what this direct is for me, literally nothing of substance except maybe new theories to form for Smash DLC. Aside from that, I literally do not care about anything but Catherine: Full Body, and even that game is one I have already experienced. For me, it was a snoozefest where I skimmed through pretty much the whole thing. But others are probably a lot more appreciative of Xenoblade news, or Bravely Default, among the other games.

Direct Approval Rating: 20%.

I'm not mad, but I am disappointed. Paper Mario x 5.
 
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Mii Costume: Quote x150
Reporter & Wrestler x130
[Rerate] Paper Mario x125
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Ryo Hazuki x110
Big Daddy (BioShock) x105

100 - 51

Segata Sanshiro x95
Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x80
Gnar (League of Legends) x80
Decidueye x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x73
Falinks x72
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Alucard (Castlevania) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Sirfetch'd x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Terra Branford x33
Concept: New Zelda character x32
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Contra rep x20
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x20
Minato Arisato x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
Concept: Level-5 rep x15
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Lora and Jin x10
Concept: Returning stages x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Ryo Hazuki is now tied with Gex for fifth place. Meanwhile Big Daddy crossed 100 noms.
 
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Admittedly, there weren't that many games that interested me. Xenoblade looks great, and I can't wait to play it. ARMS being added to Smash gives me hope for some of my most wanteds (this especially helps Rex, as Sakurai mentioned how he would've put him and an ARMS rep in the base game had this been a normal Smash game). Heck, even that weird job sim looked fun. Everything else, though, didn't quite appeal to me.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5
 
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Mini or no Mini, virus or no virus, this direct failed to give me an answer of what's coming and an optimistic view of the coming year. Most of these announcements consisted of ports (likely overpriced), small budget games, DLC/updates for already released games and stuff that leaked ahead of time. Almost nothing we didn't already know about and it didn't even completely deliver on that front. I'm suprised NmH3 and DP2 didn't even show up. I'm usually not the type to complain about this but nothing here caught my eye.

Also why the hell would they save the Sw/Sh expansion pass for the "one last thing" when we already had a whole direct dedicated to that. There was no new info, it was basically an ad. Yes, so are Directs as a whole but that segment in particular felt like it served no purpose but to shill. Probably would've liked the direct better without it.

I know the situation isn't easy at the moment and that I probably could have just looked at the description and save my time (which would spoil it however) but this Direct just didn't feel warranted even if it was a mini. I'd argue the 2018 one was better than this.
2/10
 

warpenguin55

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Satisfaction: 6/10
There really wasn't much to see here. I'm happy we got a new fighter announced but nothing else really showed up. ARMS rep really questions if spirits matter to this fighters pass

Noms: Gnar x5
 
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Mini Direct Reactions

This is the first Direct during a global pandemic, so I can certainly understand why it's a Mini Direct and didn't that much games shown here. Would I have preferred Deadly Premonition 2 and No More Heroes 3 getting showcased over Bravely Default 2 and Sword & Shield DLC? Absolutely, but those games will be shown off at some point; it just wasn't meant to be today. Really, the only 2 things that I actually look forward to are the Shadow of Doom DLC and that board game collection ft. Fishing and Peggle. Everything else were okay but not really something I'd be looking forward to.

I posted my thoughts on an ARMS rep being FP6 elsewhere:



Boy, the way they revealed an ARMS character was pretty underwhelming. Whether if COVID-19 did stifle the announcement or not, I can't really say I'm excited for the lineup of Vol 2 right now since 3rd Parties are more interesting than anymore Nintendo characters to me. With development on hold until things become safe again, we're probably gonna be in for a major drought gap between FP6 and FP7, so that isn't great.

Other than that, this is certainly a good time for Nintendo to capitalize on getting more people invested with ARMS than ever before cause I'm sure as **** there's way more active players in Ultimate than ARMS before today. I also have a reason to care about seeing Max Brass in Smash now, so this isn't all bad. I'd even support if all those characters on display were red herrings and the ARMS rep is actually a completely new character being added to the game.
Suffice to say, I'm not exactly so keen on Vol 2 right now. I'll probably have more to add later after I process the announcement a bit more in my head.

Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5
 

Garteam

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Direct Satisfaction: 6/10

Overall, it was a pretty eh direct. Nothing made me scratch my head, but nothing really caught my eye. Xenoblade is looking good and the Ring Fit Adventure mini-game looks like a lot of fun, if I could find a copy.

On to ARMS, I was definitely surprised, but not in a bad way. I sort assumed ARMS was just a victim of poor timing and that would be that, better luck next Smash game. Admittedly, I didn't play much ARMS when it came out, but I always love goofy characters with long ranges.

The thing that definitely has me the most excited is how this has completely flipped speculation on its head. I, like many others, saw speculation Fighter's Pass #2 as a re-run of Fighter's Pass #1: Mostly third-parties with a new, first-party thrown in there. However, ARMS getting a character is a complete curveball. Not only is it a first-party that's not super relevant, but it's a game that's already represented in Smash. Plus, with the possibility of this being our first spirit and possibly even assist trophy promotion, it seems like the floodgates are open once again.

Regarding who I think it is, I'm putting my money on Spring Man with Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, and Min-Min as alts. It would be really weird not to include Spring Man, but the reveal really made it seem like there would be more to it than just that. These four are all popular, iconic, and have a similar enough body shape to share animations, it seems like the perfect storm.
 
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Direct reactions:

BORDERLANDS! WOOO!
Okay, aside from that there wasn't anything particularly eye catching for me. Pokemon DLC didn't really tell me anything I wanted to know(aka any returning Pokemon info). Xenoblade looks neat but the gameplay just isn't for me(I tried X and...yeah it's not working for me) and I'm not massive on turn based games in general(Pokemon is a rare exception and that's mostly because of the appealing monsters) so that's a lot of the JRPG and tactical games offerings out for me.

BUT ARMS...huh. It shot down so many fan rules at once that I'm actually pretty excited. I feel a weird disconnect to the general Smashboards crowd where every new third party fills me with dread, but first party offerings excite me even if it's from a game I've never touched like ARMS.
The character design and music in the game is top notch, and so even if ARMS' gameplay to me still feels like Wii Boxing on steroids, I think any character from the game would be a nice Smash fit.

Byleth and this ARMS fighter have managed to make me excited for Smash Ultimate again. What a weird feeling. I wonder if we'll go the Hero/Bowser Jr route with the alts allowing for more ARMS fighters at once...sadly that likely leaves fan favourite Twintelle out as she fights with her hair rather than arms, but it'd still be neat.
 

Ninjaed

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Melia looks so damn adorable!!

*ahem* Sorry, had to. Well XC:DE is the one thing I'm hyped for the most in that direct. I'll have to play that from scratch again but well worth it. And Melia has been on quite the forefront this trailer. Standing side by side with Shulk on that poster. Feels like the devs are acknowledging best girl her popularity. Next thing I'm hyped for is the smash DLC news, then Bravely Default II. The Ring Fit Adventure rhythm game sounds fun too, and... that's pretty much it. They did briefly show Trials of Mana but that's been pre-ordered for months now.

I'm not particularly excited for the rest of what they announced. That said, I can appreciate how some would enjoy those other news. Just because it's not for me doesn't mean it's bad. I remember a time I really wanted to play Panzer Dragoon, or would have screamed in joy at the Jedi Academy news.

Overall, I'd say 6/10. It did feel a bit weak but it still had some good stuff, some for everyone.

Oh and about ARMS, I noticed Springtron is the only one missing in those clips (that is player-controlled, didn't check the opponents). But he's basically robot Spring Man anyway and wasn't even playable at first. I'd say the ARMS rep would either be an ARMS 2 character, Twintelle or Min Min (who tend to dominate popularity-wise), Ribbon Girl... or Spring Man. Even if he is an AT, there's no denying his importance. I'm still of the mind ATs deconfirm, though that's clearly being challenged pretty bad right now. I've cited them ordered by want, btw.

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
 
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Melia looks so damn adorable!!

*ahem* Sorry, had to. Well XC:DE is the one thing I'm hyped for the most in that direct. I'll have to play that from scratch again but well worth it. And Melia has been on quite the forefront this trailer. Standing side by side with Shulk on that poster. Feels like the devs are acknowledging best girl her popularity. Next thing I'm hyped for is the smash DLC news, then Bravely Default II. The Ring Fit Adventure rhythm game sounds fun too, and... that's pretty much it. They did briefly show Trials of Mana but that's been pre-ordered for months now.

I'm not particularly excited for the rest of what they announced. That said, I can appreciate how some would enjoy those other news. Just because it's not for me doesn't mean it's bad. I remember a time I really wanted to play Panzer Dragoon, or would have screamed in joy at the Jedi Academy news.

Overall, I'd say 6/10. It did feel a bit weak but it still had some good stuff, some for everyone.

Oh and about ARMS, I noticed Springtron is the only one missing in those clips (that is player-controlled, didn't check the opponents). But he's basically robot Spring Man anyway and wasn't even playable at first. I'd say the ARMS rep would either be an ARMS 2 character, Twintelle or Min Min (who tend to dominate popularity-wise), Ribbon Girl... or Spring Man. Even if he is an AT, there's no denying his importance. I'm still of the mind ATs deconfirm, though that's clearly being challenged pretty bad right now. I've cited them ordered by want, btw.

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
I've been hearing a lot about ARMS 2 today. Is that something in the works or rumored or is it just speculation?
 
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Since we don't have much that's actually been confirmed today, I figured I'd just skim the archives and give my two cents on what concepts to keep an eye on.

Alternate Costumes as DLC
This is an old one and many gave up on it, but now many are theorizing that the ARMS character might actually be several characters as alts of each other, a la Bowser Jr. or Hero.

Echo Fighters as DLC
Same as before, many are thinking that the ARMS character might actually be characters. That way the several unique mechanics each character has could properly be represented. Hell, if we get more than one Echo, this would technically make the character a low-key Echo Pass.

Crash Bandicoot
If anyone was looking at MandyCan's leak as a plus (to be fair, his last rating had many people outright ignore that leak), that's over now.

Fighting game characters
This is wonky since Sakurai doesn't consider Smash to be a traditional fighting game and ARMS is probably in the same boat. But it's worth mentioning that both Smash 4's DLC and FPV1 gave us 1 fighting game character.

Spring Man
Obviously

Assist Trophies and base game Spirits
The notion of them disconfirming is pending from a thread. Whoever the ARMS rep turns out to be will be the killing blow to one stance on them. On one hand, obviously getting a promotion kills the "they disconfirm" side. On the other, unless the character ends up being the protagonist of an unannounced ARMS 2, if they go out of their way to not promote an AT and Spirit, therefore avoiding basically the most popular characters in ARMS, that will be pretty damning for those hoping for promotions.

First parties in general
Last Pass Joker was the first character revealed, and Byleth as the sole exception, he was pretty indicative of what the rest of the Pass would be.

Big Daddy
The entire BioShock series is now on Switch, so Big Daddy's day will probably see much higher scores than he would have gotten before this Direct. This also applies to any character or series getting their first game on Switch just announced, but I couldn't find any others.

A character who isn't the star of their own game
This day, whenever it comes, will probably be a pretty large discussion on whether these kinds of characters can get in, and what that means for the ARMS rep.

We do have one confirmed concept, that being First-parties after the Fighter Pass. It got 71.20% chance and 79.55% want, so it seems like you guys were right, and glad to be.

I'll do noms in a bit.
Regarding the someone who isn't the star of their own game, I feel I should make some clarifications.

In regards to Arms, this goes without saying but Spring Man is obviously the Star, I'd probably also consider Ribbon Girl as well. But I'd leave that up to you. It's interesting that this idea is being challenged already. It excites me. This is very exciting.

Also in regards to Pokemon, I would consider the Starters the stars. So if we get someone who isn't the starter, again dead. I was gonna wait until the day was closer, but this news excites me enough I might use my extra noms to get there faster.


Also first party after the pass hype! Although we got a first party during the pass so that takes away a little from that confirmation :p



As for the direct.



Beyond hyped for Xenoblade. I'm gonna play Torna to get hyped for it, and maybe replay all of two (which I haven't touched since first finishing)

ARMS character is awesome. First Party discussion is once and for all going to be taken seriously. And the fan rules on the table to be killed!!! The only character who's not a spirit I consider a real candidate is Max Brass. But if it's not him, and also not Spring Man or Ribbon Girl. It's gotta be Min Min, she won the competition!

But I'm actually leaning towards a four in one. Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min and maybe Ninjara.

First three fit over each other fine. Spring Man's special ability is kinda meh and doesn't really need representing, Ribbon Girls would be pointless because everyone already has multiple jumps. I suspect that any arms characters would like use their legs for some attacks, especially for things like aerials where using the arms could be too awkward. And Ninjara would lose his teleporting, but not every character in smash uses all their skills.





Shout out to star wars episode 1 racers, that was awesome on 64 if it's the game I think it is.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
526
Direct reaction

A surprise for sure. We didn't get anything, so we weren't prepared at all. With the direct itself, it wasn't really interesting. No Silksong, and I ended up skipping a huge portion of it. Xenoblade was pretty cool though.

Arms in Smash... this was really interesting. Spring Man is an AT, Ribbon Girl is a Mii Costume, and characters like Min Min are spirits. The way they showed us opened the possibility of anyone out of the 15. I really wonder who's gonna get in. If it's Spring Man, it kills the no AT rule. If it's an Arms character with a spirit, it kills the no spirit rule. Really, even if Kid Cobra or Helix get in, it still kills the rule of 'face of the franchise first'. This was a great addition in my opinion. I'm personally rooting for Spring Man or Min Min. Spring Man kills the no AT rule, and Min Min kills the no spirit rule. Also she's really cute.

Overall rating: 5/10

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
467
ARMS character is awesome. First Party discussion is once and for all going to be taken seriously. And the fan rules on the table to be killed!!! The only character who's not a spirit I consider a real candidate is Max Brass. But if it's not him, and also not Spring Man or Ribbon Girl. It's gotta be Min Min, she won the competition!

But I'm actually leaning towards a four in one. Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min and maybe Ninjara.
Oh? You don't think Twintelle has a shot? Why not?

If it's Spring Man, it kills the no AT rule. If it's an Arms character with a spirit, it kills the no spirit rule. Really, even if Kid Cobra or Helix get in, it still kills the rule of 'face of the franchise first'.
To be fair, that "rule" is only relevant to 3rd party characters.
 
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Oh? You don't think Twintelle has a shot? Why not?
I wouldn't say she has no shot, I just think others are above her.

If we don't get a spirit upgrade, obviously she's out of the running.

If we do get one, she's still gotta compete with Min Min and Ribbon Girl, Ribbon Girl is the secondary star of the game. And Min Min won that tourney and she would translate much more smoothly imo than others.

And that's only Spring Man being an assist trophy truly disqualifies him. If Assist Trophy is fair game, then it has to be Spring Man. He's the mascot. He also has other fighters who would mold well over him for Alts. Twintelle however doesn't fit that mold very well.

And the game is called arms, to me it would be weird to have someone who doesn't use their arms.


I say this as someone who's favourite is probably Twintelle (although I do like Byte and Barq)
 
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