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Yeah, it's a theme. For those two trailers. They share a theme because they're two highly requested characters from Rareware, the first of which is a villain.
You literally need three data points to establish a pattern. Out of 18 newcomers, 4 have been villains (if you count Incineroar as one), so it's ridiculous to assume that means a theme when it's clearly just coincidence.
Concept: A person of color x175
Tidus x150
Moogle x145
Nate Adams x130
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
[Rerate] Ezio x100
[Rerate] Frisk x95
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x95
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Echo: Xion (Sora) x65
The Terrarian x60
Sakura Shinguji x60
Billy Hatcher x60
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Riptor x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Giygas x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Concept: Deltarune content x37
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
Klonoa x30
Concept: Returning stages x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x20
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x20
[Rerate] Monokuma x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Concept: Rocket League repx15
Yoshimitsu x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
John Marston x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Dr. Goomba Tower x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5 Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Red slingshots past the 100 nom barrier.
Maxwell and Prince of All Cosmos amass 25 noms each.
Today we have 3 newcomers: Amiya, Dr. Goomba Tower, and Gil, all with 5 noms. Bizarrely enough, all three characters share the theme of towers. Huh.
Any character is fine with me, I got my mains so I'm ok with anyone
I think Metroid, Zelda, Sonic, Kirby, and Donkey Kong need more reps
I'm ok with mario getting more reps, at least if it's a popular character.
But I don't want another Pokemon or Fire Emblem character, tho if we get a pokemon character
I will be just disappointed, but I won't complain
But new reps are awesome.
Concept: A person of color x175
Tidus x150
Moogle x145
Nate Adams x130
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
[Rerate] Ezio x100
[Rerate] Frisk x95
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x95
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Echo: Xion (Sora) x65
The Terrarian x60
Sakura Shinguji x60
Billy Hatcher x60
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Riptor x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Giygas x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Concept: Deltarune content x37
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
Klonoa x30
Concept: Returning stages x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x20
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x20
[Rerate] Monokuma x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Concept: Rocket League repx15
Yoshimitsu x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
John Marston x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Dr. Goomba Tower x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5 Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Red slingshots past the 100 nom barrier.
Maxwell and Prince of All Cosmos amass 25 noms each.
Today we have 3 newcomers: Amiya, Dr. Goomba Tower, and Gil, all with 5 noms. Bizarrely enough, all three characters share the theme of towers. Huh.
Chance 15 - Only way I see this hapening is if Metrod Prime 4 is coming out soon. Since they just scrapped it and had someone else start working on it like last year I don't think that's gonna happen. I could see Sylux be the closer character for the pass assuming the last character is out in late 2021 but IDK if the game will even be close enough to being done then to have a promotional pick for it. Leaving the door open on the off chance that it is
Want 50 - This would be alright. No strong feeling either way here. Would be nice to get one more non Samus Metroid rep IMO.
Porky
Chance 10 - Maybe if we get the Mother 3 port? Lol, I know. Fat chance that's gonna happen. His game not having an international release hurts, but since he is known to Smash fans thanks to his Subspace apperance as a boss maybe that'll cancel it out? There's a small amount of demand here too so I guess it's not impossible but I wouldn't put money on it
Want 100 - This would be so cool. Would he be in his mech? Probably, which would make him super fun and unique. Porky was also one of my favorite bosses from supspace so I'd be happy for it
Predictions
Paper Mario - 61%(People are gonna overrate the **** out of him)
Captain Toad - 13.54%
Chance: 40%. While I know that spirits do not disconfirm, it’s still odd that Sylux does not even have a spirit in this game. Also given how Metroid has doubled the amount of playable characters, having Sylux would not be as far fetched as it sounds. Sylux has a chance of being a promotional pick, as long as the next Metroid game is no longer delayed.
Want: 90% Sylux would be fun to play as, and I would totally see a fight between him, Ridley and Dark Sami’s to see who is the best Metroid Villain. I also hope that Sylux is in the second fighters pass. Overall, Sylux being in the roaster would be a great choice and it gives the Metroid franchise some more love.
Porky
Chance: 40%. I’ll be honest, I’m surprised that Porky is not in the game, not even as a boss or a spirit. Porky’s chance I see quite due to him being a villain, and that he represents the Mother franchise. If he does not make it in the roaster, then he should be a boss, which would be just as good.
Want: 90%. Porky would be fun to play as, plus the fact that Porky is playable would help give the Mother franchise more popularity. Plus we can see Porky and Ridley fight each other to see who is the best former subspace boss. Overall, Porky would be a great choice for this game.
Prediction: Paper Mario (30%) and Captain Toad (20%)
Noms: 5 for Gyigas and 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep
When we rated Terra, I made a huge post analyzing the chances of every Final Fantasy protagonist, eliminating them one by one to arrive at the conclusion that Terra was the likeliest. But then I realized that while not as strong a contender, Tidus is still very much in play for different reasons, and I started nominating him because of that. But since he screwed up my reasoning, and since I'd have to nominate him from zero (I usually pick characters abandoned around the 50+ range of noms), I started calling him ****ing Tidus in jest, like I'm angry at the guy. I actually love Tidus and FFX, but it seems pretty fitting to continue the joke, given I'm gonna be stuck nominating him for months.
Even with the Spirit fan rule being broken, I still think Sylux not having a Spirit could be a good sign. And we now know with Min Min that already existing Spirits in the game could be used for future fighters' Spirit boards. The rest of the hunters could easily be put into Sylux's Spirit board now.
Plus there is still the slim possibility that Sylux could be used as a promotion for Metroid Prime 4 since it is heavily speculated that he could be the main antagonist in that game.
Want: 70%
I wouldn't mind Sylux's inclusion even though I have never played any Metroid game with him in it, but honestly I would prefer for him to get in the next Smash as Ridley and Dark Samus are more than enough for Metroid newcomers in this game. Sylux I believe getting into Ultimate would probably be overkill for Metroid representation, but the kind of overkill I would enjoy that's for sure.
Porky -
Chance: 50%
Just like with Sylux, I think the Spirit fan rule being broken doesn't effect Porky's chances and that him not having a Spirit could still be a good sign. Mother has literally no enemies in the game as Spirits aside from Masked Man, Starman, and Dungeon Man. Such enemies like Giygas, Pig Mask Soliders, Hippie, and ect don't have Spirits as well as Porky unless you want to count the empty Absolute Safe Capsule. Those enemies could come pop up in Porky's Spirit Board and being added to the game that way.
We don't know if Mother 3 is ever going to get officially localize in the west, but if it does Porky is almost practically a lock. I think it still could happen.
Want: 100%
Porky is my 4th most wanted character so yes, I absolutely want him. He would have a unique play style with him being a mech fighter which we don't really have in the roster unless you want to count Bowser Jr. which I don't personally. Jr. rides a car with weapons, it isn't a mech. He would give us more villain representation in the roster and with his inclusion I believe would pretty much fill in the big villain void in the roster in terms of the Nintendo side. A Mother villain is the last big Nintendo villain that needs to be added and there is no better contender than Porky Minch.
The guy people wanted when Ridley was a never-ever, and a kid that needs to move faster.
Chance (both): 0.5%. I'd give Sylux a higher score if it was proven that he had anything to do with Prime 4 but that's pure speculation. I don't think that their biggest strength, their lack of a proper Spirit, was just defeated: no, I think it was outright turned on its head. It went from their greatest strength to their greatest weakness; it shows an appalling lack of attention to these characters, being overlooked for characters like Wanda the Sprite from Mario & Wario, or Ness' Dad as a freaking phone, despite their so-called claims to fame, which begs the question why would Nintendo even care about them? Porky will never be relevant again outside of ports, while with Sylux if Prime 4 doesn't come to the rescue then that could be a nail in the coffin. They're basically dead, unless Porky or Sylux suddenly get a lot of traction in the community.
Want (P): 40%. I know there's a bunch of people here upset with the love Mother's gotten already but I feel like Porky is one of the few major Nintendo antagonists truly missing from Smash's roster (him, a proper Ganon, maybe also DJ Octavio and Captain Syrup but those two are not quite there yet), and he's number 1 in terrible-ness. EarthBound and Mother 3 are solidly repped, yes, but I think Porky is quite capable at least.
Want (S): 20%. Whereas Mother at least only got both its veterans, Metroid walked away with both an echo and a full-blown newcomer already. It didn't get a stage, but neither did Mother. And while there's a few more things Metroid could use, honestly, at this point all that's needed is a revamp of Samus and there you go. Sylux is inoffensive, though, so I can at least stomach his inclusion, it's just one that really doesn't appeal to me.
Frisk x 5. Remember when I mistakenly predicted Paper Mario? Yeah leave that score the same. His want is gonna have a major hit after the recent revelation, though. Captain Toad isn't Paper Mario, and both of them have to come up against the infamous Geno and Waluigi duo that will likely keep them from being too likely, but Toad's waning relevance will likely hold him back. 17.60%.
Chance - 1% - The main reason Sylux was given attention in the old days was that he was seen as the only good new candidate for Metroid after Ridley and Dark Samus were thought to never happen. Now that both are in, though, most of his supporters are happy that the pipe dream that seemed to never be happened are fairly content where Metroid is now. What few supporters he does have are clinging to the Metroid Prime 4 game that will presumably make him more important that will be releasing the day of The Tomorrow That Will Never Come. All he has right now is hope for the future, and right now it isn't very bright.
Want - 50% - I'm fine with Metroid right now, and don't feel the need for another character. He might interest me latter, though.
Porky
Chance - 0.05% - Porky may be important in terms of Smash, being the bridging character between Mother 2 and 3. That said, his games are officially finished; the creator has said that he has no plans to make any more games in the series because he has told all the story that he wanted to. While their may be some interest, overall there is very little benefit to putting Porky in.
Want - 60% - Porky as a slightly interesting move set to me, though nothing too major. I'm not actively cheering for him, but if he got in I would have no complaints.
When we rated Terra, I made a huge post analyzing the chances of every Final Fantasy protagonist, eliminating them one by one to arrive at the conclusion that Terra was the likeliest. But then I realized that while not as strong a contender, Tidus is still very much in play for different reasons, and I started nominating him because of that. But since he screwed up my reasoning, and since I'd have to nominate him from zero (I usually pick characters abandoned around the 50+ range of noms), I started calling him ****ing Tidus in jest, like I'm angry at the guy. I actually love Tidus and FFX, but it seems pretty fitting to continue the joke, given I'm gonna be stuck nominating him for months.
A bottom-of-the-barrel pick that I feel people exaggerate his importance to the Metroid series. On his debut, he was just one of the many bounty hunters encountered by Samus. He wasn't their ringleader. Then he makes a bunch of meaningless cameos with the idea that "he's gonna be relevant one day just you wait!" There is no guarantee that Sylux is gonna have a role in Prime 4, but because everyone kept saying he's gonna be relevant so much, people have warped this perception that he's is gonna be their.
I'm pretty much in full agreement with PPhoenix Douchebag
. A character from the Smash 4 speculation who I always saw as a "Sakurai will never put in Ridley, but he'll definitely put in Sylux. He's gonna important.... someday!" To be blunt, the idea that Nintendo would "shill Sylux" is straight up delusional.
Metroid really doesn't need another fighter. If anything, declone Dark Samus.
Porky
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
A character with just as much chance as all those old Mother 3 rumors. The idea that a character has nothing going for them, means they're gonna be dlc is a bit absurd to me. Especially with the characters that use that argument. One of which I saw was Porky. By that logic, Reimu's got better chances than Porky. She's got zero Touhou content in Smash. Maybe the reason Porky doesn't have a spirit could just simply boil down to the team in charge of deciding spirits having no interests in adding Porky. Or maybe as a joke, he's inside that capsule.
I really doubt Porky is gonna make more people want to buy the pass. He'd be better off as a base game addition, or better yet, bring back Boss Rush from Brawl, and make him a boss their. Too bad Home Run Content was said to be the last new mode added to Ultimate.
I'd rather the rest of the Fighter Pass after Min Min be an all Third-Party sausage fest than to have either of these two be playable.
Sylux and Porky (yes I'm including both):
Chance: 0.1% - Everyone else above me has already said it, but I'll say it again - lack of recency, no interest from general Smash community, waay too much competition. It ain't looking pretty for either of them.
Want: 0% - I don't care. That's it. I've never had an interest in either Metroid or Mother, and I think both series have enough reps as is, with Samus, ZS Samus and Ridley for Metroid, and Ness and Lucas for Mother.
Noms: This...is probably going to be the rest of my life here on this thread.
Amiya (Arknights) X5
I'll say this right now - I don't think Amiya has even the slightest shot of getting in Smash. That said, I'm interested in seeing what people think of her, and Arknights in general.
Also, the front page is getting revamped. The Scores section should be up to date by Saturday at the worst. There are two things I would like for thr thread though.
1. A banner of sorts. If someone is an artist and can draw some good stuff of some characters or can make something cute, lmk.
2. A graphic for the top ten of chance and want. If ya are good at photoshop lmk.
To give an update on what has been done so far, the list for Chance and want has been about halfway formatted. Need to cut and paste the scores, but that will happen soon once the lists are done. I knocked out about half of each list, getting the top 70 in chance and want down for characters. Concepts will be updated too once I get the characters done.
Couple of things I wanted to note while looking over the scores.
-People are wayy more generous with scores in the dlc period than in the base game. At least for want. The number of characters of 50% want was shocking, 59!
-Carmen Sandiego getting top ten in want was a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one. Low key, I would be down that that. Missed her day but *shrug*
-Looking at the disparity between chance and want scores is interesting. Lloyd for instance is 3rd in chance right now, but 67th in want.
they're both in very similar situations. although sylux also had a potential involvement in a game that is now ways off, one thing they had in common is that they both hinged on the fact that they didn't have spirits for some reason. with spirits now back on the table, they really don't have anything going for them. the lack of spirits was probably just whoever was in charge of them failing a spot check.
Also, the front page is getting revamped. The Scores section should be up to date by Saturday at the worst. There are two things I would like for thr thread though.
1. A banner of sorts. If someone is an artist and can draw some good stuff of some characters or can make something cute, lmk.
2. A graphic for the top ten of chance and want. If ya are good at photoshop lmk.
To give an update on what has been done so far, the list for Chance and want has been about halfway formatted. Need to cut and paste the scores, but that will happen soon once the lists are done. I knocked out about half of each list, getting the top 70 in chance and want down for characters. Concepts will be updated too once I get the characters done.
Couple of things I wanted to note while looking over the scores.
-People are wayy more generous with scores in the dlc period than in the base game. At least for want. The number of characters of 50% want was shocking, 59!
-Carmen Sandiego getting top ten in want was a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one. Low key, I would be down that that. Missed her day but *shrug*
-Looking at the disparity between chance and want scores is interesting. Lloyd for instance is 3rd in chance right now, but 67th in want.
Th-th-that's all folks!
Chance: 2%
Listen, Porky missing is frankly strange since he was given a role in the SSE, and he seems to be the only boss to not even get a spirit? Very odd.
That said, I can't give Porky a high rating. Even amongst Nintendo franchises MOTHER is pretty freaking niche, the series is complete and there's not much demand at all. Add to that he's not just competeing against his fellow Ninten-bros and Porky's bacon is cooked.
Want: 60%
That said, Porky is the only Mother character I'd be down for. I really enjoy his character arc, I love mechas in fighting games hence why Bowser Jr went from my least wanted in Sm4sh to one of, if not my absolute favourites upon the game's release. No doubt Porky would similarly become one of my favourite newcomers in Ultimate.
SYDUX
Chance: 1%
Sylux's one advantage was his missing Spirit. Now that's gone, he's got nothing. A vague promise that he'll be important in Metroid Prime 4 whenever the hell that releases doesn't fill me with confidence, Metroid just got two newcomers this very game and it's popularity in Japan is close to non existence. Nearly all the Metroid fanbase exists in the west, leaving Sylux as a choice for a DLC newcomer pretty risky overall.
Want: 0%
I personally couldn't care less about Sylux. This isn't even indifference, but when the best thing someone can tell me about the guy is he's 'supposed' to have a big role in an upcoming title that's been delayed repeatedly, I have no reason to support him at all. He hasn't done enough of note to put him above the leagues of other options out there.
Tomorrow's the Captain's day, huh?
I'll predict Captain Toad at 13% due to being another title on the Switch, and Paper Mario at 27% due to Origami King being right around the corner. Spirits are gone and there's nothing really to prevent them now.
Sorry for missing my own deadline, computer troubles.
Today is a Mario double day. In the red corner, Captain Toad, whose journey from Galaxy NPC of little note to recurring character with his own spin off is something to behold. In the blue corner, Paper Mario. While the quality of some of his games post Super Paper Mario is dubious, he’s still here with his good art style and classic spinoffs. Rate both in chance and want.
Tomorrow is an activision day. Crash is being rerated again, has a new game coming, and he’s currently the most likely and second most wanted. Spyro (my baby) is tagging along as well for another rerate. Predict both.
Sylux Chance - 15%: The current trajectory we have going is an advertisement first party based DLC pass, with Min Min and the 100% guaranteed gen 8 Pokemon. Sylux fits in to advertise Metroid Prime 4. Tanabe has been planning Sylux to have an important role in the game for over 5 years or something at this point by tracing interviews, and always goes out of his way to include cameos from his beloved Mr. Sylux in new Metroid games. Metroid would begin to reach a point where it becomes arguably over-represented with Sylux, though, and 2 newcomers to the series were already added in this game. Sakurai might have to get in contact with Tanabe to figure out how to make a competent moveset for him given he does so little in the games he's currently in, which does not seem that likely. This is the main thing preventing him from being all that likely.
Sylux Want - 25%: He's pretty bland, but he's generically another villain to add to the pile. In addition, him being Tanabe's golden boy makes him a pretty hilarious ironic character. K. Rool vs "no crocodiles" Tanabe, yes please.
Porky Chance - 0.2%: Sylux has positives going for him other than not having a spirit, this was the extent of why Porky was ever brought up in speculation. Porky getting in would entirely be Sakurai looking for more villains with interesting movesets, and I will say Porky is pretty high on that list. However, he advertises nothing and has little to no requests, The fact the Mother fanbase is split with supporting him over a laughably generic Ness clone is laughable.
Porky Want - 100%: I have no connection to Mother as a franchise, but there are few characters left I do care about on a personal level. Porky in a mech would be a great moveset and he's a very entertaining character. His moveset in Crusade is a pretty great basic blueprint for him.
Time for Adventure!
Chance: 40%
Definitely not a higher priority when it comes to Spirit promotions. And no, being a stage cameo DOES NOT affect his chances (see also: Alfonzo on Spirit Tracks).
Want: 70%
He’d be cool, his game‘s fine. However, just food for thought; how would Sakurai implement the non-jumping mechanic? Would he be unable to jump just like in his home game, or would his jumping just be severely reduced? Either way, would his recovery skills make up for his poor jumping?
Abstain on Paper Mario. I’m not opening this can of worms.
Cash Banooca: 85%
Spyro: 70%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3 Sakura Shinguji ×2
Paper Mario:
Chance-60%. The Origami King is on the horizon, but he could still easily get Spirits. I don't think they'd toss him in just because there's a new game coming up, because if that's how characters were chosen we'd have a Legionis in place of Banjo. Still, he's possible.
Want-60%. I think Paper Mario would have enough to warrant a slot, and his hammers and Partners would help differentiate him from Mario. That being said, he's not very high up on my list. Captain Toad:
Chance-40%. Captain Toad's ship has sailed, if not only recently. His popularity flared up after 3D World, but he's not a regularly-recurring character yet, and we already have a ton of Mario content in general. Unless Nintendo has a Treasure Tracker 2 they really want to push, I don't see him happening.
Want-50%. I'm neutral on him. He'd be cool, I guess, but I don't feel too strongly either way.
Predictions:
Crash-80%, due to his popularity and upcoming fourth game.
Spyro-50%, since Crash takes up most of the Activision popularity and people will probably lean more on Crash than Spyro.
Chance: 60%
Origami King just came out (no it didn't but almost) and Paper Mario probably has got a decent amount of votes in the ballot too. It would both advertise the new game and please many fans.
There are things against him as well though, such as the fact that he would be the third Mario, and some fans would probably get angry because it's not Waluigi nor Geno.
Want: 20%
My want score is low... lower than it should. I know, but there's a reason. If Paper Mario would become a fighter NOW, he would likely get a moveset mostly based on the recent games, from Sticker Star to Origami King. I just don't like the new direction of the series... I've played Sticker Star and I enjoyed it, but it was very superficial and not memorable at all. I think it would be another situation like Wario... I wanted Wario a lot, but my idea of Wario was a Warioland-based Wario, instead I got a Wario that's mostly based on Wario Ware's type of humor, not the cool strong Mario rival and treasure hunter.
Captain Toad
Chance: 0.5%
Support for this guy became smaller and smaller with time... during the Smash 4 speculation, he was one of the most wanted characters by the whole fanbase, now he's way less popular.
But popularity aside... I admit that I'm not following the Mario spin-offs much, but I think that aside of getting a small role in Mario Odyssey, Captain Toad just disappeared... I mean, I don't think he's in the new Mario Party, Kart, Tennis etc. games, unlike Rosalina and even Pauline.
He has got its own spin-off, that's all he has in his favor, otherwise he would have the same chance as someone like Toadswort or Nabbit (0%).
Want: 40%
I have a similar opinion of this character as I have of Bandana Waddle Dee. Toad is the main version, Captain Toad is like having Dr. Mario before the actual Mario; the difference for which I'm not against this character as much as I am for BWD is that I think that the Mario series has the most interesting characters already in the roster, and I don't think there are many "better" characters left... maybe I would prefer Prof. E. Gadd a little but that's it.
So, if it was normal Toad, I would give him a 60% want at least, but Captain Toad, 40%, I'm sorry.
40% and not less, because I think that the rucksack concept that some people suggested for his moveset is very cool.
I prefer to have just "Toad" with Captain references in his moveset, and a Captain skin, not a "Captain Toad" with a moveset exclusively based on his own spin-off with all the generic toad stuff being neglected for the sake of limiting the representation to just one game (that got re-released three times but still one game it was).
Paper Mario Chance: 14%
I feel like if there was going to be another “new character who‘s an existing character, but they look different,” it’d only be done for the sake of including an easy last-minute clone addition. I don’t think that kind of character is even going to happen, so I doubt his chances. Aside from a successful Wii game being his biggest claim to fame, there’s not much reason for me to believe Nintendo would have him as a priority among their first-party lineup, and even among the different Mario characters. Want: 0%
I struggle to see what genuinely new mechanics or fighting style he could bring. He has a lot of potential for cool visual flair, but style needs substance to be worthwhile. While he has some good games on their own, I don’t know if there’s much they can offer for a full fighter in Smash. Like Min Min straight up having a unique control scheme representing ARMS gameplay was nuts. Paper Mario really would need something on par with that, and I’m not convinced that could happen.
Captain Toad Chance: 70%
Captain Toad pretty much took off after his first standalone outing on the WiiU. He’s really been solidified as a recurring staple of the Mario franchise with his own adventures at this point. He seems like a fresh face with a guaranteed future that can easily appeal to most of the current Switch audience, so I would understand his inclusion. Want: 90% Captain Toad can’t jump, so I’m really compelled now, especially after seeing Min Min, to see how he’d work in Smash. The idea they’d actually go the whole 9 yards and have him be the first fighter to be unable to jump, while giving him some mechanic to counterbalance that, actually doesn’t seem so impossible to me. I would put him among the top Mario characters I would want to see.
I'm gonna vomit if someone says that he'd play too similarly to the regular Mario
Chance: 5%
This is definitely gonna be an unpopular opinion. We last rated Paper Mario in April where I gave him a 10% chance. This was before the new Paper Mario had been officially announced and was only a rumor at the time. Now with Origami King releasing this month, how have things changed for our flattened hero? Well call me crazy but... I'm honestly less confident in his chances than I was back in April.
Why? Because the way Nintendo has been promoting this game shows that it isn't meant to be some big hitter like Three Houses or New Horizons. They just dropped the trailer on a random day two months before it released instead of teasing it in the Direct Mini. It's clear this is just meant to be an appetizer for whatever Nintendo has planned later this year, and the only reason Nintendo is tweeting about this game so often is because there is literally nothing else releasing right now. I really don't see Origami King being a big game worthy of a promotional character compared to whatever we get later this year. I am fully expecting a spirit event to happen.
Want: 50%
On one hand, I greatly enjoyed the first Paper Mario game despite never getting around to finishing it. On the other hand, Sticker Star (my entry point to the series unfortunately) was so awful I couldn't even get through the beginning act. Everything afterwards has been mediocre at best and Origami King is already looking to be another Sticker Star. I fear if Paper Mario actually does get in, they'll just make him a glorified paper gimmick instead of incorporating the RPG elements that made the first few games such classics. So needless to say while I wouldn't mind Paper Mario, my interest in him has been decreasing with each passing year.
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I swear if someone tries to use that stupid "he can't jump" argument as a detriment to his chance score...
Chance: 1%
While spirits are officially in the running again thanks to Min Min, I don't think they'll just promote every single first party candidate like Captain Toad especially since we could still get some third parties. When it comes to spirit promotions there are just far more popular candidates like Rex, Bandana Dee, and Dixie to name a few. There's also a chance that they'd just add the regular Toad instead.
Want: 20%
Eh, I'd be alright with Captain Toad getting in though there are still some other Mario characters I'd prefer to make it in first. Also I would probably just prefer if it were the regular Toad that got into Smash instead.
Chance: 50%
I'm really confident in this, imo Paper Mario has reached coinflip status. I disagree with Sari
, the way The Origami King has been advertised makes me believe that Nintendo's positioning it as their big summer title - and probably one of their top 3 2020 games overall. Advertising for this has been everywhere, despite how the trailer for it was just dumped on social media not too long ago they've been constant with news and reveals and it's all been pretty unmissable. Plus, with what we know of the game, and the reports that it was seen in-house as a return to form, it really feels like an attempt to be the one-size fits all RPG for newcomers, hardcore fans, and refugees of the M&L series (whether it succeeds is a wholly different matter). With that in mind, I think it's likely that they're looking to promote it through Smash.
I already felt pretty confident that Mario is getting a character to coincide with the anniversary of the series, and while before Paper Mario was one of the better contenders, I think he's the frontrunner now.
My confidence in him will probably waver if he isn't FP7 because the further we get from OK's release and 2020 the less these circumstances help him. But either way I think we'll know his fate soon, if he isn't playable there's no way the new game doesn't get a Spirit Event.
Want: 95%
The Paper Mario games deserve representation, for the good and bad parts. It's a storied franchise with the highest of highs. Paper Mario himself is a great way to explore the aspects of Mario that aren't in his Smash moveset, particularly the hammer. My want has diminished a little for two reasons: one, we now know that Origami King half-assed partners, so they probably wouldn't be a part of a hypothetical Smash moveset, which is admittedly a letdown. Two, the reception it's getting will turn a beloved character that probably did pretty well on the ballot into "shill pick third Mario from a crap game", and that's the kind of negativity that can really stomp excitement.
By the way, anyone who says Paper Mario has no moveset potential or would be boring... Where do you people come from? Do you just, emerge from beneath rocks with no Paper Mario games and no Google?
Can't wait for Captain Toad 2: Full Metal Toadette
Chance: 25%
This guy really needs a sequel to cement him as a proven character. Captain Toad did really well sales-wise, so I imagine one would be greenlit, but it's a question of if the team's available. It would seem to be a ways off, so the promotional aspect isn't strong for him. He might have the Ballot, but other Mario characters are bound to have done better than him there, and jury's out on whether Toad's strong historical significance applies to him as well in Nintendo's eyes.
Want: 100%
Captain Toad is so. Freaking. Charming. Just look at the little guy go! Nothing can deter him! He might be looking for treasure, but I know when I play his game that I've already found the treasure.
What I'm saying is, Captain Toad needs to become the next Mario spinoff series. Do it Nintendo.
Plus with Captain Toad we get: Toad finally in Smash, long overdue. Toadette alt, more female characters. Sweet diorama stage, tournament banned for the best reasons. That's a great package right there.
One final bit: I'd be really curious to see how Sakurai tackles a character who explicitly can't jump in Smash. He could just give him ****ty recovery a la Little Mac, or he could reinvent the Smash playbook like he did with Min Min. Exciting stuff!
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Crash prediction: oh boy it's the biggun. I'm gonna low-ball it, because Hayabusa took a pretty surprising drop, so I'll go with 52.74%
Spyro prediction: this one however, should stay the same, 6.07%
I think another Nintendo character is a shoe-in, but I'm not convinced Captain Toad is the one. Toad is a very odd character. He is both a character within his own right featuring as playable in Mario Kart, Mario Golf, Mario Bros 2, etc ... but then in other games and media Toad is a species of clones. Captain Toad individually has had one game, that's several years old now. I'm just not feeling it.
Want: 0%
Toad is best as a support background. The numerous toads in Paper Mario ToK for example. Or as a narrator character. He should pop up as Peach's sidekick. Nothing more. I like that about him. He's just there. No spotlight, just an awesome presence.
Paper Mario
Chance: 11%
There's a lot of Mario representation already, but this is Nintendo so if anyone could get away with it ... it's him. However, I don't think that this is the year. There's too many other Nintendo characters and third party characters over him. And I think Nintendo realizes that as popular a character he is, the fandom behind him is pretty fractured. They could still do it though, so I gave him a generous 11%.
Want: -30%
I've no problem with Paper Mario. The Origami King is looking very gorgeous and looks to be embracing the Adventure Puzzle genre. However, Challenger Packs are set up to represent the whole of a character and its history. The play style of Origami King, the recent interviews with developers, and the way the new game has been advertised makes it clear the team behind Paper Mario have no care for the original two games. They've been actively burying them, and since Sakurai has developers involved ... then the first two games won't even be represented (in favor of showcasing the more recent genre of Paper Mario). The fandom is split enough, and I want to avoid something else antagonizing them.
Paper Mario would be great as a fighter in Smash. Near 80% want in any other timeline. But I don't want them to add a character they're not fond of. I don't want that drama.
This year is Mario's 35th anniversary and there's rumours of all sorts of things Mario.
Rumours of Super Mario 3D World Deluxe, rumours of remakes of the other 3D Mario titles including the critically acclaimed Galaxy titles and even rumblings about Mario Kart 9.
None of this, sadly is proven yet. That's all they are; rumours.
However, whilst Sakurai's never been one to care about particular anniversaries, I can see Nintendo requesting a Mario Newcomer to coincide with this anniversary because gosh darn it, it's Mario, their mascot and the most famous video game series on the planet.
So, frankly there's only two characters who I could feasibly see making it. Waluigi has fan demand, but he's an assist trophy like Springman and despite platitudes like 'everyone is the protagonist' I can't help but feel Spring Man was only ruled out due to his assist status.
Min Min is not the one with the robotic clone. Can you imagine if Dr. Eggman made Metal Knuckles as his first robot clone? It'd be odd.
Min Min is also not the first on the roster, which is typically saved for who they consider the main character in games with multiple playable options.
Nor is she the subject of the official graphic novel of the series. Springman, unsurprisingly, is.
Nor was she the one they chose to go to for an assist when creating a full fighter seemed impossible and Sakurai wanted to put something in from ARMS.
The box art aside, everything else bar Min Min eing the devs fave and her winning a tournament post game launch points to the true protagonist being Spring man.
For this reason I feel assists are screwed and this was more of a loophole to make Min Min seem like she was as much the protagonist as Spring Man.
I like Waluigi a lot, but between being an assist trophy and not being in any of those rumoured remakes or a title all of his own I don't like his chances much.
Geno, likewise has fan demand, but literally only has that. He's at least not an assist and until his Mii costume is revealed I could still see him possibly making it at a later date, but he'd be the worst option to celebrate 35 years of Super Mario being such a minor part of the franchises existence.
So that leaves today's candidates, regular Toad(and Toadette) and maybe stage hazard Pauline if they want to focus on Mario's beginnings.
Captain, my Captain
Chance: 26%
Ah, Captain Toad. This is my most wanted so NGL, I've probably inflated his chances by a few percentage.
Captain Toad is a little interesting when it comes to him vs. the more traditional Toad.
He's basically replaced Toad as the 'main Toad' in most the 3D titles. Odyssey and the Galaxy games all have him as the defacto leader of the group of Toads you interact with most.
He's also had a successful 2 million+ selling title starring role in Captain Toad Treasure Tracker, which I want to point out only received it's last bit of DLC less than a year ago.
Nintendo seem pretty fond of him overall, allowing Mario Odyssey to advertise the title upon release with Pixel Captain Toad being placed in Odyssey for a period, releasing the title on three consoles in total: Wii U, Switch and 3DS and making it one of the only LABO compatible titles alongside Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild and Super Smash Bros(briefly for this one).
From an advertising POV, Captain Toad Treasure Tracker is at least as valid as ARMS is, recieving the bulk of its updates and DLC only last year.
Downsides for the Captain is his identity problem.
Mario Maker for example has Mario in a regular Toad Mystery Mushroom outfit referred to as 'Captain' and outside the 3D titles the more traditional Toad usually gets the playable status. I'm genuinely surprised Captain Toad hasn't shown up in Mario Kart Tour yet for example.
There's also 3D World which threw a spanner in the works by having Captain Toad and Toad both playable at the same time but with Toad having blue spots rather than the more traditional red spots.
I feel like Captain Toad is likely to get both a sequel in later years and keep being a reoccurring character in future 3D Mario titles, now being in over half of the mainline 3D games with a more consistent track record than even Rosalina, so he's likely pretty future proofed.
The stage cameo I don't feel is enough to cancel any chances since we've seen Toon Link get swapped out on the Spirit Tracks stage if playable, and even then he appears once every three cycles of the stage.
Oh, and one last bonus for Captain Toad's inclusion? Toadette works perfectly as an alt and would likely be included seeing as how she's playable instead of the Captain for just under half of Treasure Tracker's levels.
Want: 100%
Unsurprisingly, someone with the name of YoshiandToad is a fan of the Captain Toad.
He's my avatar and I even got off my lazy ass pre-Smash Ultimate E3 reveal to knock this moveset up:
It's a little outdated now(Final Smash isn't a cinematic, 16 alts is no longer a thing, I successfully predicted a newcomer, it was just Piranha Plant in this video, etc) but I'm pretty proud of it overall. Give it a watch. It's under 4 mins and fully animated.
I can't deny part of the appeal for me about the Captain, aside from...ya know...being a Toad, is how Sakurai will tackle the no jump aspect. I gave it my best shot in the above video but I imagine Sakurai could come up with something better than this, and seeing how he loves to work with unusual gimmicks it'd be pretty neat to see him try his hand at something like this.
Perhaps he'd opt instead for GameXplain's weight gimmick idea with Captain Toad being able to jump instead but filling his backpack can make him go from a lightweight battler to a super heavyweight.
This would still fit fine, as Captain Toad was said to be able to wall jump back in the Galaxy games prior to the gameplay he's known for today.
I dunno man. I just think Captain Toad is neat and he's easily one of the most obvious omissions from Nintendo's cast.
paper mario
chances: difficult to say i think ill go with 40% the idea that he might get in to promote origami king just doesnt ring true to me. i think the general negative reactions to sticker star and colour splash would also hamper his chances. sure thousand year door is still held up on a pedestal but i dont think thatll cut it here. so far the only recent switch game to be "promoted" with a playable character in smash is the one from the series we think sakurai has a thing for not luigis mansion 3, ring fit adventure, astral chain, sword and shield or new horizons.
want: 70% while my desire to see paper mario playable in smash has gone down a lot id still welcome him. i cant help but feel though that many of you are hoping for a moveset based on his earlier games but we may end up with one based on his more recent games. personally though as one of the few people to have enjoyed all five games i wouldnt mind what sort of moveset he gets.
captain toad
chances: many fans treat cap and regular toad as separate but nintendo does not seem to, after all they were originally meant to be the same character. so i think toad's chances are cap's chances which sadly are 0% its not happening. toad, captain toad, toadette any toad has been scuppered every time in smash. sure he and reguar toad are the only mario characters to have spin offs yet to be playable in smash but i dont see it happening. not to mention the vast majority of smash fans are backing the king of nostalgia bait and wamemeigi instead so that aint helping either. call me paranoid but sakurai does not like toad, any toad. its never gonna happen.
want: 100% (surprise surprise) toad, captain toad, toadette are my most wanted character(s). ive always loved these guys, my go to guys in kart and party and i loved treasure tracker. the way i see it cap and reg would be ats of each other so theyd share vast moveset potential. really though i dont think i need to explain myself, i love the guy therefore i want him in smash thats all there is to it.
Chance: 50% - Despite facing tough competition from perceived frontrunners like Geno and Waluigi, the Captain's still got a lot going for him. He's got recency (Captain Toad's last DLC was less than a year ago), a decent amount of fan demand, and Treasure Tracker sold 2 million+ (if that's enough for Fire Emblem, it should be enough for Captain Toad) showing that the series is definitely successful. While he doesn't have the promotion factor on his side, he's definitely a big contender for a Nintendo rep in the pass. Plenty of material to pull from, plus with the spirit rule down he no longer had that barrier. I guess the big question is if Nintendo decides to make a sequel in response to the first game's success.
His main issues are competition with other Mario characters in terms of greater relevancy (Paper Mario), fan demand (Geno) or both (Waluigi), along with the fact that Toad has been passed over so many times. He feels like an absolute essential at this point, so it's only a matter of time.
Want: 100% - Toad's always been a go-to in Mario spinoffs for me and any form of him making the roster would make me extremely happy! He's a core Mario cast member (so his omission is extremely glaring) and he's got such a cute and lovable design! Plus I'm one of the few people who finds his voice charming and fun. With games like Super Mario Bros 2, Super Mario 3D World, and Captain Toad (all games where he is playable, though it's debatable whether Captain Toad is a separate character), there's tons of super unique and crazy material that would make for an excellent moveset. Plus, Toad has been a core cast member since the beginning, he's more than earned his spot on the roster!
Paper Mario
Chance: 60% - The Origami King, along with the broken spirit rule, were both massive gains for Paper Mario giving him a boost of promotional pick material/relevancy. Plus Nintendo is pushing The Origami King super hard, and could've thrown in Paper Mario as a choice to help push the game (though it could go both ways, as New Horizons was in the same position and didn't receive anything special in Smash, plus the likely last big Origami King stream before release was today, so he likely would've been revealed today if anything. Still, grasping at straws here). Paper Mario's no slouch with fan demand either, while not having a fanbase as big as Waluigi or Geno he is still a pretty popular character.
Though unfortunately most of that popularity was in the early Smash 4 days, and the release of games like Color Splash (along with the controversy surrounding what was revealed of Origami King's gameplay despite being a step closer to traditional Paper Mario) and it has greatly waned since then. That may keep Paper Mario off of Nintendo's radar, but in the end fan demand doesn't make or break a character.
Want: 60% - It could go either way depending on his he is implemented. If it was solely based on the new games I'd be extremely disappointed. But if the moveset pulls from all of the Paper Mario games I'd be much happier! All of the partners and pixls would make for some fantastic team moves! Parakarry/Lakilister recovery, Thoreau throws, even Snake Codec-esque Goombella tattles for the other fighters, the possibilities are endless! While there are other first party characters I'd rate above Paper Mario, he'd certainly be a welcome addition for me!
Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Predictions:
Crash - 81.53%
Spyro - 25.65%
Crash's new game, despite not being revealed for Switch, definitely helps his case! Though outside of that nothing's really changed for this iconic duo, outside of the possibility of a first party oriented pass. Crash is still an extremely likely western character, while Spyro will take a big hit for being seen as the little brother of the two.
Ay ay, Captain
Chance: 8%
This is mostly considering the chances of a Mario rep joining for Mario's 35th anniversary. Captain Toad makes far more sense than any others due to being Toad, one of the major Mario characters who is not yet in Smash. This makes Captain Toad the most likely new Mario rep in my opinion. It's however still low because I do not think that it matters a lot for Smash.
Want: 30% (note: I decided that 30% was my neutral rating after a lot of it varying)
I'm neutral on Captain Toad, because I don't really care about him. Like, yeah, he's a special Toad in a puzzle game, but I prefer the puzzles I find either in Zelda, in jrpgs, or in other puzzle series like Proffesor Layton. He has some moveset potential, yeah, but I don't really care. I also don't care that he cannot even jump because if it did matter then Villager wouldn't have joined and Link would have been a newcomer in 4. I also think that a Mario rep is generaly not likely, and while we can point to Byleth to prove me wrong, Byleth is used in a promotionnal way for 3 Houses because FE needs it, Mario doesn't need it due to being Mario.
El señor Super Gonzales
Chance: 5%
Like I said for Captain Toad, I don't think that a new Mario rep is likely, and Captain Toad would be the one chosen for Mario's 35th anniversary. And while Paper Mario has Origami King ti promote, I think that having Mario in it's name is enough promotion by itself.
Want: 60%
Paper Mario is a cool series with very good music, and Paper Mario's moveset could be so fun and unique. However, I have to rate it lower than what I would want because my favorite Paper Mario, Super Paper Mario, would likely be mostly ignored. And also because of a focus on the new era of Paper Mario, even if it would not really bother me that much in term of moveset since he still has most of what he had, it would be sad to see the 3 first Paper Mario gaigning only a minimal ammount of tracks.
The fact that Sakurai threw him in randomly in the New Donk City stage suggests to me he is at least aware of Captain Toad and felt that he needed representation somehow. That alone puts him in the realm of possibility.
That said I don't really see a place for him in Smash Ultimate. Captain Toad always felt like a budget title, albeit a good one, and I'm not sure if Nintendo feels the need to give it much more exposure when it probably has made a decent profit, it also seems way too soon to promote a sequel. And besides, I simply think there are multiple Mario characters that are more likely, and I really think we're only getting 1 more in this pass, if any at all. Maybe 2 max, but even then, Captain Toad doesn't really have the fan backing Waluigi and Geno do. Heck today's other character probably did way better on the ballot. Sure Toad is iconic, but considering how we're at the 5th game with Toad not playable, it doesn't seem like Sakurai cares much about that iconic status.
Want: 40%
I can see the case for Captain Toad, he's got great moveset potential that could prove to be one of the most unique fighters on the roster. However for this game we've only got 5 spots left and there's just a lot of other characters I want more. Even within the Mario universe I think Geno and Waluigi are more interesting picks, because of that, I lean slightly against his inclusion. With that said, in a vacuum there's many worse characters that could be added.
Paper Mario
Chance: 15%
The fact that he has a new game coming out boosts his chances a bit, although a new Paper Mario seemed pretty much guaranteed anyways. Otherwise not much else has changed. Paper Mario had a solid backing during the Ballot era, but that demand seems to have vanished for this game. Is it people worried his moveset would take after the new games? Is it that once seemingly impossible characters like Geno look more likely? Either way, I can't really say anymore that this would be a true fan request pick. The other reason to include Paper Mario would be as a promotion for The Origami King. This is possible, but Paper Mario's got a lot of competition, not only among Mario characters, but among first party promotional picks. Would Nintendo promote Paper Mario over Xenoblade 2's Rex? Would they put him over another Pokemon, which seems to get characters like candy? They could do all of the above, but while I think we could get more first parties this pass, I don't see it being all first parties, and even in his own series, I think Nintendo would aim for a character that could generate more buzz, and characters like Geno and Waluigi are just better at that.
Want: Abstain
This might seem odd for someone with Paper Mario in their "Most wanted" but I'm honestly considering removing him from my signature. I really don't know if I want him anymore. Simply put, the Paper Mario I've been requesting for so long is dead. It has been replaced with the Paper Mario of Sticker Star to present. They don't even acknowledge those old games any more. If Paper Mario got in to promote The Origami King, his moveset wouldn't be about using his partners/pixls, it would be about all the wacky paper gimmicks he could do. Wow look! He's got a fan for his final smash! I don't have the heart in me to give Paper Mario a 0% want, but the Paper Mario in The Origami King isn't what I've been requesting for Smash, and if he got in, that's the Paper Mario that would get in. Feels bad man.
Bup boy
Chance: 20%
While the competition from the other more demanded Mario characters seems rough, I think Captain Toad has enough qualities to be considered a dark horse pick. Having his own million seller game plays a big part in that and Nintendo seems particularly fond of it. Treasure Tracker has been ported to two systems and actually received paid DLC not that long ago. It's been a hot minute since it's release but that didn't stop us from getting an ARMS character. Toads themselves are also the most prominent Mario characters not yet playable so they might think they're overdue. It is a little strange that the Captain hasn't really shown his face in the spinoff games, Mario Kart and Maker especially. Perhaps they might prefer a generic Toad but they probably would also settle for the Captain.
Want: 50%
He definitely seems to be another Nintendo all-star who's strangely absent from the roster. I think Captain Toad is deserving and would be pretty interested to see how he'd play. Was planning on giving him a higher want but there may be certain Mario characters I'd prefer and his whole important member of a species shtick may or may not also make him Bandana Dee competition.
Insert dumb overused SPM image Chance: 5%
While that new game certainly does help his chances, we need to remember it could easily amount to a Spirit event at best. Even so, I'm hesitant to say they'd add him to promote the game because I'm not confident in them acknowledging him as a seperate character from regular Mario. Now we know that isn't the case, especially with Paper Jam making clear they're separate worlds but I just have this feeling the Nintendo higher ups would gloss over that and think "Why would we need to add Mario? He's already in the game." The fact that we already have a PM themed stage (literally called Paper Mario) that's not classified as it's own series just gives me that impression that's how Sakurai might see it as well. I could be wrong, but Origami King isn't the holiday title and I don't think PM ranks high on the priority list maybe even amongst other Mario characters.
Want: 55%
It's a real coin flip, this one. Make him inspired by his modern games and the hype goes down the drain but keep him true to the games fondly remembered (TTYD especially) or atleast mainly so and I, as well as alot of other people would be pretty happy. It's also a matter of creative freedom here as I don't doubt Sakurai being a TTYD fan, with Flavio's ship with Rougeport music being a segment in the PM stage as well as Plant's side special referencing that game, but Tanabé or Miyamoto might stick their nose into things, suggesting how to "properly" represent Paper Mario. I'd just root for Sakurai to pull a Pacman here and make the right move.
Im rating the Captain iteration, not the main default Toad. (Whoever that is). Toad the character, was and still is one of the main 4 members of the Mario Cast Since Super Mario Bros, and the idea of a singular Toad beign a representative of the species as a whole is commong among Mario games, where he is always one of the most prominent characters if not among the playable cast. On all cases Toad sounds like character that should have been since Brawl or even Melee, But Sakurai beign the 100 objective genius had the moronic idea of putting Toad in Peach's moveset for whatever dumb reason, and cursed Toad forever of beign excluded of the cast because of this.
The Captain incarnation whoever, is a different Ball Game. He debuted in Galaxy and became prevalent in later Mainline Mario games, and even got his ****ing game: Captain Toad Treasure Tracker, and it was pretty damn successful in all cases. He may lack the prominence of vanilla Toad, but he has more defined role and abilities as a character, having a trasure hunter as a fighter actually would be a first for the series (Wario is nothing but Bacteria-Light, so i don't count him)
If im honest Sakurai done ****ed up when chose Rosalina over Cpt. Toad in Smash 4 in hindsight. Sure Rosalina was the more well known of the 2 back then, but now Rosy is nothing but Spin-off fodder (and her appereance in 3D World will probably the last time we see her in a role with major importance in a while, and even then she was a post-game unlockable) meanwhile Cpt. Toad managed to get a starring game of his own.
So why i put him so low? Well, simply the fact that Captain Toad hasn't gotten a new game yet is worrying to me. We got a port, and we don't know if Cpt Toad is all gonna get is that, but i wouldn't be surprised since that was exactly what happened with the 3DS. I need to see Captain Toad 2: Electric Boogalo to be sure Captain is now a Mainstay of if he's gonna be thrown onto the sidelines lack Jr and Rosey (ant they got in Smash before that happened to them)
TL;DR if he were to get a new game i would be more confident on him.
Want: 50%
Sure why not? I don't want Captain Toad that much, but part of me feels we should have gotten a Toad in Smash in some form or another for years now. Better than Rosalina or Pirana Plant for sure. Im angry or upset at his inclusion, but i surely think he actually is a more logical choice than whatever Sakurai will likely come up next. Before you guys call me on hypocrite due to what i said on Sylux yesterday, im not compromising here. While i think Toad should be in Smash, i actually prefer the Captain Incarnation here because it's well.....more charming. In want scores i would still rate Toad higher (not because i want him personally, but because i want him to be in the game already)
He is my 3rd option for a new fighter (tied with Toad) from the Mario series, next to Puppet Man and the Wa Behind the Slaughter.. But wait, wasn't there another Mario character i used to want before? Well, not anmymore.
Chance: 25%
Well well well, if it isn't funny Paper Man. I said it before that i thought that a Paper Mario on Switch was inevitable due the series's consistent release schedule of 3-5 years, and i was right. Origami King is now releasing soon enough, and i speculated long enough that Sakurai could have seen this game in action, and could be inspired to add Paper Mario as part of Fighter Pass 2, which was beign developed in late 2018 to 2019 most likely, probably around the time OK started beign made. Paper Jam helped him differntaite from Mario, and even if we have a PM stage in Ultimate, PM has enough content that it could easily get another one with brand new music for the Fighter Pack. Want: -1% (0%)
Yeah, it's over. I saw Origami King and how it is turning out, and i can safely, say my interest in this character is over. I know for a fact that Paper Mario WILL be based o the recent installments, and content from early games will be left as a minor footnote of the series.
Sakurai may have based Kirby's representation solely on Sakurai made-Kirb games, but i actually like Sakurai's Kirb games (before Return To Dreamland, i saw most Kirby games living in the shadow of Super Star and Adventure, outside of 64) i hate how Sakurai ignores Wario Land in Smash, but i do love Warioware even if think using that as a basis for Wario's moveset is bull****.
New Paper Mario though? I hate it, i hate what the series became, and im not gonna pretend to be positive. It's pretty clear the fanbase of the original PM games have moved on, and those who stay have become the luaghing stock for not wanting to COSUME PRODUCT. In the case of the former 2 above while i don't like the way the series were implemented i don't hate the games of origin in question, but in the case of Paper Mario, the games i actually enjoy have started to become a minority, and that i don't really think i can say i care about this seres.
If you like PM's new games, when a franchise or something you enjoy changes so drastically that it becomes a shadow of its former self, i will have no sympathy, now you know how me and many others felt when that happened with Paper Mario. Im not saying to start a comment war, nor out of hatred, but i wanted to get it out of my chest. What used to be my favorite choice for a new Mario character is probably one of my least wanted Smash choices. Keep in Mind, im not blaming Sakurai on this, he just uses the most recent content for Smash representation, and that wouldn't be a problem if it wasn't by the fact the most recent content is some of the most bland gaming stuff i have ever seen.
It's sad, but eh. The same happened to Castlevania wth Netflix's series, and the same has happened with fans of many franchises. Guess it was going to happen to me inevitably, Paper Mario or otherwise.
Abstain on Captain Toad. I wrote a paragraph but I deleted it as I was making a bunch of conjecture and questionable points as I started to write it at midnight. Simply put, I don't know how to rate this character. Plus I've never played his game so I can't comment on moveset potential either.
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Origami, colorful, sticker, door happy RPG Mario
Chance: 38%
Let me repeat a common phrase: "Just because it's coming to Switch doesn't mean it will get into Smash." With that said I do think Paper Mario has a solid chance. The Paper Mario games have been around for a long time and while the last couple entries received mixed reviews, that doesn't dispute the fact that the first couple games are classics. Plus Paper Mario has a good amount of requests and crazy moveset potential. Looking on the Super Mario Wiki, he has his signature hammer, buff and debuff abilities, Mega Shock, Star Beam, Star Storm, as well as abilities his allies can use.
Is he the frontrunner for a Mario rep? I think he nearly is except for the fact that Geno exists. Geno is a Mario rep and also the rep for a Mario RPG as well, so unless if Geno turns out to be a deluxe Mii costume or a bonus character. I think he is a threat to Paper Mario. I think it's unlikely, albeit not impossible for both to be in the pass. Sure Paper Mario has his own series and has the potential to be a shill pick, but I don't think I need to bring up Banjo. You could argue Geno and Paper Mario are not directly competing as Geno is co-owned by Square Enix, but again they are both Mario RPG reps.
And finally there is the possibility of The Origami King getting a spirit event. So while Paper Mario has many things in his favor, there are just a couple things that could easily screw him over.
Want: 65%
No much has changed for me when it comes to this category. I watched some of the Origami King presentation and wasn't too impressed, albeit I got bored by the commentary. Speaking of which, I find it funny that we did this rating right after that presentation. But other than that I still would like Paper Mario. He has wicked cool movesrt potential and the stage would be really unique. They would likely choose The Origami King for the stage and I have to say, the visuals do interest me. That is a big draw to the Paper Mario series and while Paper Mario does already have a stage, they could show off more of that unique art style for sure. Plus I've heard the music is really good too.
