Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

I'd like to move on too. IDK why we always slow down so much whenever we hit the fixed schedules.

maybe the people who run the thread have other things to do

 

[SharkLord]

I'd like to move on too. IDK why we always slow down so much whenever we hit the fixed schedules.

I understand why we did it with Bandana Dee and Dixie; Discussion was going strong and we didn't want to cut it off. Here, though? Not much has been said, so there isn't much reason to keep going at the moment.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining on Nightmare

Sol Badguy

35% Chance

Call it a gut hunch, but I think this is a real dark horse candidate. Arc Sys is a pretty big name when it comes to fighters, especially since they helped lay the ground work for the stereotypical anime fighter in Guilty Gear. The fact we got Arc Sys spirits as well is something I find weird too.

Now, last time I rated him, I went way higher since I thought spirits did deconfirm and that having a third party get such a nod without being in the game already (looking at Rayman being spirited) was a good sign. Nowadays, since spirits are not a sure fire deconfirmation, I am not as confident since it means the amount of competition is way higher.

100% Want

I like Guilty Gear's music and I think it would be fun to fight on. I would love to do arenas online jamming to GG's soundtrack. To me, one of the most important things is the soundtrack a franchise would bring to smash.

Also one of my good friends loves Sol and is one of their most wanteds.

Boss Rush x 5

Speaking of spirits, we have two characters who did not get their spirits in the base game, Sylux and Porky. Do they still have a shot in the dark now that spirits do not deconfirm. After that, we got a Mario day on our hands, with Captain Toad and Paper Mario rolling into town. Rate the former two and predict the latter.

Front page will be updated throughout the week, trying to make it up to date. As of now, it has the fixed schedule at least.

As for my absence for a bit, I have been job hunting and trying to limit distractions for a bit. I wanted to polish up my resume and right a good few cover letters, so I took a step back and focused on that. I should be good now to do what I can.




And since I am here, I am just gonna rate these things. Boss Rush x 5 for this day too.

Sylux

1% Chance

Without spirits outright deconfirming a lot of competition, he's in a lot worse of a spot. Maybe if we get a wave 3 and if Prime 4 comes out in time, then he could make it in. Maybe. But right now, it does not look good for Sylux.

80% Want

What? I like Metroid and Sylux would be the next rep if it gets one. Metroid got a ton of love in Smash Ultimate, and I would love to see it get even more. That being said, I would like to see more of him once Prime 4 comes out..eventually, before I make my final judgements. As of now he has a cool design and moveset and is from a series I love. Good enough for me.


Porky

5% Chance

Porky at the very least has a solid resume under his belt. He is one of the two main villains of the Mother series alongside Giygas. He would have a clearly unique playstyle. He even got a nod with a boss fight in Brawl. But... he is from a dead franchise as of now that has not gotten much love in a long time. Maybe if Mother 3 got a rerelease, he would be higher. As of now, rating him is kinda awkward.

100% Want

Ultimate did a great job of adding some of the big heavy hitting villains in Nintendo's backloge into Smash. I hope they add more. Also, I have a soft spot for the idea of a mech fighter. Jr unfortunately does not scratch that itch for me. Here's hoping Porky would (or eggman)

Also the mother franchise is super good obviously.

 

[GoodGrief741]

After a week or so of not doing calcs I expected this huge backlog of characters without scores, but it turns out we've only had two days since then.

Spoiler: Calcs

Saki Amamiya
3.00% Chance - 55.50% Want
Last time we rated him he got 2.00% chance and 55.25% want. Over a year has passed, and many things have changed in speculation, including the addition of first-parties and "characters you would expect to see in Smash" and the obliteration of the Spirit rule, but it seems that not much has changed for this ruffian.
Winner of predictions was Lyncario with 2.40%

RAY
2.23% Chance - 55.56% Want
Last time we rated him he got 0.88% chance and 53.83% want. Ray was the third character rated after Joker's TGA reveal, and the schedule was unfortunate enough to match that week with a bunch of first party characters from dead or obscure franchises. Ray got it the worst, as by that point people didn't even care to rate those kinds of characters. He's rebounded somewhat in chance, though still seen as little more than a long shot.
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 2.17%

Dixie Kong
35.10% Chance - 79.73% Want
First time we rated her she got 22.57% chance and 67.42% want. Back then we didn't even know about Joker, so while people really had reservations about Spirits, she was still seen as a frontrunner. Second time we rated her she got 14.17% chance and 81.92% want. This was after E3, at at this point Spirits and first-parties being out was pretty widespread among the community. But as you can see, Banjo-Kazooie getting in really awoke people's hunger for more Rare characters, and her want skyrocketed. Last time we rated her she got 18.02% chance and 70.52% want. Chance rose, but still, we didn't even know about the ARMS rep back then, so the prevalent belief was that we'd get a third-party majority Pass like the first one. Want took a big dip; can't explain that one. From then to now, chance nearly doubled - obviously Min Min being a Spirit and her Spirit board helped.
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 38.52%
Dixie is now the most wanted character in RTC, beating Crash's 75.78%. She's also the third highest want score overall, behind a pair of concepts. But the Bandicoot's day approaches; will he reclaim his spot?

Bandana Dee
38.63% Chance - 72.49% Want
First time we rated him he got 55.58% chance and 82.48% want. Ah, nice innocent days when the fourth character in a first party franchise was the frontrunner of speculation - we didn't even know about his Spirit back then. Second time we rated him he got 8.88% chance and 66.02% want. Again, after the Hero-Banjo double whammy, it wasn't a good time to be first party. Last time we rated him he got 21.70% chance and 74.41% want. It got better after Byleth, but it really took a complete upending of the Spirit situation to get him this high.
Winner of predictions was Calamitas with 37.92%

Honestly, given the predictions and Rex's score, I expected Dixie and Dee's chance scores to be much higher. Maybe the new worlds mistranslation still hovers over them.

And now, the updated list of extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 5
Calamitas 20
DaUsername 92
Delzethin 5
Jomosensual 5
Lyncario 10
NintenRob 10
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
SKX31 10
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10

I'd like to move on too. IDK why we always slow down so much whenever we hit the fixed schedules.

Well, fixed schedules are usually double and triple days, and we like to make those last longer because there's more to rate.

 

[Sari]

Some Prime songs to get into the Sylux mood:

Spoiler: Metroid Prime Music

Some Earthbound/Mother songs to get into the Porky mood:

Spoiler: Earthbound/Mother Music

 

[warpenguin55]

Sylux
Chance: 5%
I think there's a chance we have a Metriod Prime 4 promo rep. Only problem is that we have no idea when it's coming out. He could very easily miss out by not having the game come out until it's too late for DLC.

Want: 70%
I've never played a game with Sylux in it. Everything I've heard about him makes him sound really cool though.



Porky
Chance: 5%
It's still pretty strange that Porky just straight up doesn't exist in SSBU. But if it was because he was about to become playable, I think he would have had to be in FP1. FP2 wasn't planned, so unless he was supposed to be in FP1 but got delayed, Porky isn't looking too likely

Want: 80%
I think Porky in his Spider-Bot thing could be a really cool character to play as. He'd probably play a lot differently than Lucas and Ness. Earthbound/Mother is a dead series, so I doubt this will happen but it would be cool.


Noms: Rocket League rep x5

 

[SKX31]

Syl-what do you mean I might have to wait some more for my next mainline chance? (Sylux):

Chance: 5 % (roughly)

Well, this one has been a strange ride. Never fully understood why Sylux was the one Hunter speculated about until I saw that MP3's Special Ending featured him (as confirmed by Tanabe)... Now that adds a major wrinkle on its own. Sure, Nintendo's never been the company to care deeply about continuity, but I don't believe that Tanabe nor Retro would be dropping this ball. As such, there's something there.

Now, Sylux's chances seem to be in extreme flux (which is why I chose 5 % as a baseline). MP4 had probably a massively difficult development process prior to the restart, and how the restart / delay impact's Sylux's chances are a major ?. Also, his lack of Spirit might not be seen as that much of a strong point when Min Min's promotion basically demolished that.

All in all, Sylux feels like a character one can't entirely discount, but it's extremely difficult to say where he stands.

Want: 25 %

Could be interesting, just haven't paid much attention to the Hunter personally. Of course, this is coming from someone who's not played much Metroid, so that might be it.

Porky (Absolutely safe! Whether he can get in - or out of that capsule, though...):

Chance: 7.5 %

And on the other end of the spectrum, we have a villain whose series is completed. Unless Nintendo produces a spiritual successor (FATHER? Moonbound?). Anyhow, Porky does have pedigree by being a Brawl boss that wasn't brought back. Not the strongest positive for promotion - but Ridley's here. Still, the Brawl boss could give some ideas for moves and other elements to him...

OTOH, I'm personally struggling to see him being prioritized for DLC. Nintendo could certainly pick a retro character / fandom want, but so far the 1st party newcomers have been mostly promotional. Even Min Min, where the ARMS announcement had tie ins in the ARMS game. To me, he feels much more like a base game pick like fellow villains Ridley and K. Rool. The lack of Spirit for him, likewise, was kinda weakened by Min Min.

Want: 20 %

Again, could be interesting (especially with the Spider-Bot), but I've never played an Earthbound game. EU didn't get Ness' game until the VC release, that's why. So not high on my want list.

Noms: Rocket League rep x10 (using 5 of my extra noms)

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Sylux.

Y-you call this a cit-uh-cit-uh-utopia?!

Chance: 0%
Almost certainly not the biggest priority. Especially considering he’s not even there for the ASC Spirit.

Want: 90%
Which is a shame, because I’d love to see him back. He can come back as a boss or become a wholly new fighter.

Captain Toad: 30%
Paper Mario: 75%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sylux

Chance: 5% - Sylux is really hinging on a potential appearance and upcoming release of Metroid Prime 4. His last appearance was Metroid Prime 3 way back in 2007, and with the franchise being not too popular in Japan I can't imagine Nintendo choosing to sell him as an individual character. He's certainly got a lot of moveset potential, but unless Prime 4 is revealed fully soon and he's in it, I don't see him getting prioritized. There's also not a huge amount of fan demand, and while Metroid certainly deserves it after having solo Samus for four straight games, A lot of Metroid fans seem to be satisfied with Ridley and Dark Samus for now.

Want: 15% - Sylux has a cool design and a lot of potential for a great moveset! Though while I have nothing against the character, there are other first party character I'd rather see much more, plus there are now other first party franchises that need the extra representation more than Metroid does right now. I was very happy to see Ridley make the roster, though!


Porky

Chance: 5% - Like Sylux, I just don't see Porky happening. The spirit situation is certainly bizarre, but if it truly meant anything he would've shown up during the first pass. If anything, his spirit problem could've just been a mistake (they accidentally used a fan sprite after all for Masked Man(?)). There has been a little rise in fan demand with renewed interest sparked by Undertale and Oddity, but still likely not enough to grab Nintendo's attention, especially with only five slots remaining, and there being other first party character with MUCH bigger fan demand. To add to that, Earthbound doesn't have anything upcoming to promote, and even then considering the plot of the games I doubt they'd bring Porky back.

Want: 0% - I have nothing against the franchise, but for a niche JRPG franchise with no future of its' own, it's already got a ton of representation, and I think there are other franchises that are in much more need of said representation. Aside from the obvious F-Zero, there's Pikmin (one of my favorite franchises of all time), a franchise that people (ESPECIALLY Smash fans) either write off or regard with ridicule. I know a lot of people love Earthbound, but I'd much rather see a franchise like Pikmin get some time in the sun (especially since Pikmin, a much bigger and ongoing franchise, has less than half the Smash content Earthbound does).


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Paper Mario - 35.32% - Expecting a LOT of high ratings due to Origami King
Captain Toad - 10.58%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sylux

Chance: 1%

Welp, now that the Spirits Deconfirm argument has been taken out back and euthanized, the one flimsy argument in favor of either of these characters getting in is dead. And good riddance to fanrules. Perhaps Sylux will have more of a chance when he actually becomes a character. But Metroid Prime 4 has been delayed indefinitely with no news in sight. The majority of his fan demand stemmed from when people still believed Ridley was an impossible dream, but now that we have two great Metroid newcomers in Ultimate, I don't see them adding a third.

Want: 0%

I never really cared for either of these characters making it in, and the fact that their primary reason for advancement for the past year and half all the way to Min Min's reveal was based on the idea that spirits deconfirmed soured me on them even more. Metroid has already gotten two excellent reps this game in the forms of Ridley and Dark Samus and they both do a far better job of representing the series and rounding out the roster than he would. I could literally name 100 First Party characters that I'd rather have over him. I'd rather have a Gen 8 Pokemon over him, because at least those characters exist right now, and considering the ratings I've given to Gen 8 Pokemon in the past, that says a lot. We still have DK, Kirby, Zelda, and Xenoblade that could all use another newcomer far more, I'd even rather see F-Zero or Star Fox get another newcomer on the basis that neither have them have had one for far longer. Metroid is more than well fed for the next several games. I'd rather see villains for series that don't already have two of them, like Eggman or Black Shadow or Medusa. Give Samus a break already, she already has to deal with her two worst enemies in the waiting room, she doesn't need a third.

Porky

Chance: 1%

Same as Sylux, now that the Spirits Deconfirm "rule" has been put down with a shotgun (or Ram Ram), the one flimsy reason that he could make it in is dead, and there's little to no reason for Nintendo to add a rep from a dormant series. Lucas wasn't even deemed important enough to be brought back for Smash 4's base roster, why would they add a third completely unique Mother rep now when nothing about the series in terms of active status has changed? When you look at all the other dead Nintendo series, including but not limited to Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Rhythm Heaven, Chibi-Robo, Sin and Punishment, etc, it really puts it into perspective how extremely fortunate Mother is as a series to have the two reps it does now, which mostly likely is only due to Ultimate's philosophy of bringing back every veteran in the series. Had Ness and Lucas not been in previous games, the odds and fan demand of them being added to either Smash 4 or Ultimate would be as likely as any of the other series I listed getting in, as in extremely low to practically zero. The idea of them getting a third completely unique newcomer when the series has been lucky to keep both their characters as is for so long is laughable.


Want: 0%

I love the Mother trilogy as much as any other guy, Mother 3 was one of the first story based games I was really invested in, but it's not so big that it needs every single other character. Even among Earthbound, I'd rather see a character like Ninten or Kumatora, as they would be echos or semiclones that wouldn't take as much dev time and I like their characters more. A big nope from me again, when DK is still missing Dixie, Kirby still doesn't have Dee, and Zelda still doesn't have a non Triforce rep, Porky really seems like overkill for a franchise of his size. When all the series I listed above (Advance Wars, Golden Sun, Rhythm Heaven, Chibi-Robo, Sin and Punishment, and even more) can't even get so much as a single character, to have a series that is no more active or larger like Earthbound get a 3rd completely unique newcomer would be favoritism on the levels of FE, even an echo would be pushing it. Give the development time to a series that could actually use it please.

 

[SharkLord]

Sylux:
Chance-20%. It all depends on close Metroid Prime 4 is to release. If it's closer than we expect, I'd rank him a little higher. If it'll be a cross-gen game like BotW, I'd count him out.
Want-80%. I like Metroid, and Sylux seems like he'd be pretty cool. My biggest worry is that Metroid will become the next Fire Emblem after getting three newcomers in a single game, but as long as there's not too many clones, we should be fine, right?
Porky:
Chance: 20%. Before Min Min, Spirits were a death blow. Lacking a Spirit despite his popularity made Porky a frontrunner of speculation at first, but he kinda dropped off as third-parties began to take the helm. Now that Spirits are up for grabs again, Porky's chances heavily decreased. His lack of Spirit is still odd, but there's quite a few other first-parties I'm sure have priority over Porky. He'll most likely come with a new Boss Mode.
Want: 40%. I'm neutral on the Mother franchise, so Porky doesn't appeal to me that much. I'm sure he'd be fun if he got in, but I'm not really feeling it.

Predictions:
Paper Mario-50%
Captain Toad-30%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sylux

Chance: 8%

Sylux is in a weird spot right now. With the development progress of Metroid Prime 4 up in the air, it's unknown if the game will be released by the end of the fighters pass. The bigger question is will Sylux still be a big part of Metroid Prime 4? And would Sakurai be able to know enough about the character in time to make the December 2021 deadline? We know that he created Greninja based off concept art so this is plausible. Another big question is would Sakurai and Nintendo prioritize Sylux in the first place? His chances depends on how much the pass is going to consist of first parties and shill picks vs fan picks and third parties.

If we knew that Sylux is definitely going to be a major character in Metroid Prime 4 and we knew that the game would come out sometime next year, I think he would have a solid chance. But right now there are too many unknown factors that prevent me from being confident in his chances. And it doesn't help that there is no pattern for this pass so far.

Want: Abstain

I don't know a lot about Sylux. Looking at his moveset potential it could be really fun but I'm not sure if I would be excited for his inclusion as I'm not a big Metroid fan. So yeah can't pinpoint a score for this.

_____________

The character whose theme plays in YouTube videos for dramatic effect

Chance: 12%

I'm giving Porky a slightly higher score than one would expect because I'm suspicious of his status in Smash. There is the absolute safe capsule that probably contains him but I'm really questioning why didn't they just add a spirit of him in the flesh? Like I'm shocked he doesn't have a physical appearance in Smash with him being a major villian for the Mother series and being a boss in Brawl. It just doesn't add up to me. He is a very notable omission and the fact they didn't bring his boss battle back is surprising. I know that I'm mentioning his missing spirit a lot when it doesn't matter anymore since the spirit rule is dead, but that is something that has bothered me for a while now.

But other than my strong suspicion, Porky's chances are looking grim and he is not in a favorable position. The Mother series is done and Nintendo has plenty of bigger series they can shill. One thing I can say is that his popularity has stayed steady and he would probably be the next Mother character chosen. But unless if Mother 3 finally gets localized or if the creator changes his mind and makes another game/gets convinced to hand over the rights, there is not a lot of reason for Nintendo to choose this character and they are the ones choosing the characters.

Want: 40%

As long as he uses the spider-bot in his moveset, I would be fine with his inclusion as he would be a fun character and we could use more villains. But there are just so many other characters I want instead.

Predictions:
Captain Toad - 7% (I'm curious on how people are going to rate this. Would he have priority over regular toad?)
Paper Mario - 30%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Business

Chance: 6%
Mother isn't dead or dormant, it's finished. There's a difference. That out of the way, it's not exactly a series I see being prioritized aside from Ninten in a hypothetical Echo pass. It's pretty well represented, and while it has a huge fanbase there isn't this huge outcry for more content. It'd sell, but there isn't an incentive for Nintendo to look at it. 5% because it's really weird that he isn't in and he was a huge part of Brawl. 1% because of the possibility that Mother 3 comes to the West and I can see Nintendo wanting to market such a mythic game.

Want: 100%
We get an amazing, entertaining, complex character. Another villain, another heavyweight, another Mother character (and one that isn't a psychic kid). And we get that wicked spider robot moveset.

Sylux.mp4

Chance: 10%
I guess the odds of Metroid Prime 4 releasing next year are good, and he could promote that. That's literally his only avenue in, and it's still a longshot. Metroid has 4 characters, 2 of those added this game, so it went from one of the worst represented series in Smash to pretty much perfect. It's fine without Sylux, there's no demand, he isn't even a big character yet. He's either in as Metroid Prime 4: The Character or he's out.

Want: 50%
I don't care about Sylux, to be honest. If he gets in, no skin off my back, but I won't care at all. If he does, cool, I guess.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Paper Mario prediction: 38.59%
Captain Toad prediction: 24.23%

 

[jamesster445]

Sylux
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Porky
Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

I'm mostly neutral on Sylux as I feel like Metroid more or less has what it needs in terms of representation.

Porky on the other hand as a villain from the Mother series has unique opportunities thanks to his spider mech and a reliance on technology. As opposed to being another PSI boy which a lot of people do not like. I also just like Porky, he's without a doubt one of if not the most unapologetically evil characters that Nintendo ever made and that personality would be interesting to see.

Ultimately their make or break inclusion has to do with their spirits or lack of. I thought there might've been a time where they were planning on adding these characters. The Mother 30th anniversary was a great time in particular to introduce Porky's spirit. But as of this moment nothing. Maybe Nintendo is planning something with these series and that's when these two will be added spirit or otherwise? Only time will tell.

Nominations: Jin Kazama x5

 

[amageish]

Porky

Chance: .5%. With Min Min's inclusion, the idea that they were purposefully holding off on including certain characters as spirits in the base game to save them for DLC is, in my mind, disconfirmed. So, where does that leave Porky? A finished niche franchise with 2 characters already in Smash. That, uh, isn't a great place to be in, honestly. Mother is a franchise kept alive by its fans, but I just don't see much of a reason to put another Mother character in Smash right now - and, even if we get one, I'm not convinced it'd be Porky over Masked Man.

Want: Abstain. I'd be happy if he had a cool/creative moveset, I guess? He strikes me as a slightly odd pick for a playable rep out of the Mother cast, in spite of being a reoccurring bad guy.

Sylux

Chance: 4%. Same situation as Porky, but at least he could promote Metroid Prime 4. That said, there are just a lot of games that could be promoted and 5 slots left. This is also a franchise that has already gotten a lot of TLC in Smash Bros with effectively all the already-popular characters inside. It's a longshot.

Want: Abstain. No opinion whatsoever.

Noms: Moogle x5
Predictions: Paper Mario = 45% / Captain Toad = 28%

 

[Perkilator]

For any doubts about a creative moveset: a Twitter artist named Starbirb cooked one up for Porky.

This is my interpretation of what could it be if Porky was a Smash DLC character.
This took me way long to draw and put together...

Since twitter doesn't allow me to post more than 4 images you can find them all in full resolution in the link below:https://t.co/HMhfcQaJu0 pic.twitter.com/0qejOLgBpf

— Sn1p3r (@StarbirbZ) February 11, 2019

 

[MeteoRain]

Sylux

That's seriously it, I have nothing funny comming to mind.

Chance: 20%

I feel Metroid is fine with the addition of Ridley and Dark Samus. Yet, I could see Nintendo trying to promote Metroid Prime 4, but Metroid is hardly uncontested on that front with Oragami King, Breath of the Wild 2, and the ever present Pokemon or Fire Emblem obligations.

Want: Abstain

We have little idea how this character could turn out. Basing it exclusively on Hunters, I wouldn't be that enthusiastic as a Metroid fan.

Screw you guys! I'm going home! >">

Chance: 2%

Mother as a series is over. I largely feel Porky only gained any remote traction because of the spirits malarkey in tandem with having a huge boss role in Brawl that he didn't reprise. Spirits are simply riddled with a few odd absences. For example, the classic blue Ganon is nowhere to be seen despite everthing surrounding him, including his alter ego that should enhance into him, is represented. Yet, hardly anyone cared or bandwagoned him like Porky.

With Min Min destroying the one thing that made him generally uncontested I think we're in the clear. I won't say 0% though, only a fool thinks in absolutes when it comes to Smash. The unexpected does happen more often than we care to admit.

Want: 20%

As previously mentioned, seeing how he'd play would be bizarre to say the least and I'd be curious. Outside of that, I'd be tad disappointed considering how much Mother gets the pedestal compared to other dead or even some active Nintendo IPs.

 

[Sari]

Despite being both an important Metroid character as well as one of the leading candidates of the "they aren't spirits" argument, Sylux hasn't been rated since May of 2018. That was over 2 years ago and before the first Ultimate gameplay trailer at E3. I am genuinely surprised by this.

Chance: 0.5%
The biggest thing Sylux had going for him was that he was not a spirit in the base game, so he wasn't deconfirmed according to the people who thought .pngs of characters meant they could never be playable ever. With Min Min confirmed and spirits officially back in the running, there isn't much for Sylux to rely on now.

Metroid Prime 4 has been in limbo ever since the start of last year. Because of this I doubt either Nintendo or Sakurai considered someone like Sylux when they were probably making deals for the other Fighter Pass 2 characters during the course of 2019. Even if Prime 4 didn't go through development hell, we still don't know whether Sylux will have a big role throughout the game. Yes I know it was hinted in the previous games that Sylux would be important later on, but things could've changed during Prime 4's development and for all we know he'll just have another appearance in the ending.

I'll give a very small chance score in the event we get Prime 4 by the end of next year and Sylux is somehow a promotional pick. If we don't get any Prime 4 news by the end of the year however then I think his chances are completely dead.

Want: 0%
With 3 unique characters and an echo, I think Metroid has enough reps right now. None of the potential new Metroid characters really interest me and I just have a ton of other priorities when it comes to those last 5 slots.

-----

Chance: 1%
The Mother series is finished and with two characters already repping the series I don't see Sakurai going out of his way to add another as DLC. Like Sylux, Porky mainly relied on the spirits deconfirm fanrule which is now dead after Min Min's inclusion. I'll give Porky a slightly higher score than Sylux since I find it weird how Porky has no true representation in Ultimate despite having such a big role in Brawl (also in case a Mother 3 port actually happens).

Want: 80%
The Mother series has a ton of colorful and unique characters to choose from with Porky being one of them. Smash needs more villains and Porky would be perfect for that considering how he's one of Nintendo's most sinister villains and how he'd fight in his mech (with the closest thing to a mech fighter being Bowser Jr.). Also his inclusion would pretty much confirm Pokey Means Business as a music track which would be worth it just for that.

-----

Captain Toad chance prediction: 7.50%
Paper Mario chance prediction: 40.00% (people are definitely gonna overrate this)

-----

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[NintenRob]

Sylux
Chance 1%
Want 20%
Porky
Chance 0%
Want 3%

I understand why these two are being rated at the same time.
Both of the are characters who gained a following because they didn't have a Spirit.
Except turns out being a spirit or not meant nothing, if it did they would have done something in the first pass.
Porky especially feels like a bandwagon choice, I saw no desire to see him playable prior to release.
It was always Ninten, Kumatora, Masked Man and Paula, never Porky. (Also we already have two Earthbound characters, we don't need a third)
I also personally think he'd be a bit awkward with that mech of his, they'd have to shrink the mech but you couldn't really shrink porky himself.
Sylux I understand a bit better, it's heavily suggested he'll be a notable player in the upcoming Prime 4, whenever that is. But right now he's not very noteworthy.
And Metroid representation is pretty good on the character side of things. Samus and Ridley are the two major necessities, anyone else is really just icing on the cake.
Which we have two layers of thanks to Zero Suit and Dark Samus. Sylux would be overkill.


Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Predictions
Paper Mario 40%
Captain Toad 20%

 

[RouffWestie]

Sylux
Chance: 1%
He's at least a somewhat notable character from the Metroid series. If they really wanted another newcomer from the franchise, he'd probably be first in line. I don't think there's going to be another Metroid character in Ultimate.
Want: 0%
I'm not overly interested in Metroid newcomers beyond Ridley. I get why he has his fans, but I wouldn't care for his addition. I'm good on Metroid reps at this point.

Porky
Chance: 3%
With the return of Galleom and all of Brawl's bosses returning in some form - either spirits or cameos - it's odd that Porky is completely absent. Even though I still partially believe they intended to make him playable, I think there's a dozen other possible reasons he was simply neglected to be added. Like maybe they wanted him to be a returning boss, but somehow it didn't work out and they just left the boss roster as is. I can't say there's much in his favor until I see more of the characters coming in this pass.
Want: 100%
I love Mother 3, so I'd give a big YES to Porky! It'd be pretty neat to have another rival character added to the roster as well. I'd even be happy to see him just return as a boss, as long as he comes back somehow.

Nominations: Red (Angry Birds) x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Sy-what? Oh Yeah, that guy.

Chance: 1%
Spirits don't disqualify characters. Yep. The only thing this guy had going for is now ****ing dead. Now instead it shows how barely anyone even gives a ****ing damn about this guy. There, i said it.

Oh wait, what about Metroid Prime 4? No. Even if Sylux were to appear in 4 (which honestly actually likely) i don't see that game ever affecting Smash Ult's development seeing how this game is Development Hell: Metroid Edition (Dread is Metroid Vaporware)

Sylux is the greatest example of delivering on an idea and never expanding on it. He was in Prime Hunters, and he barely stood out compared to the rest of the Hunters, Prime 3's Secret ending they tried to put him as this super-mysterious edgy rival to Samus and it went ****ing nowhere. Oh yeah he showed in the secret ending of Federation Force..........probably one of the most unpopular Nintendo games of the last decade, and he did jack all during the entire game until the secret ending in an attempt to drum hype in an hypothetical scenario where he is the main antagonist and that hasn't happened for over 10 years since Prime 3 supposedly teased it. If the Metroid devs (Retro, Next Level Games, or otherwise) don't even ****ing bother with the character, why would Sakurai? It's not like K.Rool situation where he was 100% important character in every Rare-inspired DK Game until Jungle Beat. I mean ****, Mock Geno all you want, but at least he made his role clear and served his role properly in SMRPG and didn't try to tease you with a "sequel hook" in an attempt to make him more interesing, which is exactly what they do with Sylux.

and his "supporters"? Look, i know every character has his fans, but if Sylux had ever any major support, it wasn't because of him, it was because of Ridley. HE was the major character supported from Metoid, HE was the one that people actively supported and talked about, HE was the one Sakurai actually openly mentioned in interviews. Sylux support came because people REALLY wanted a playable Metroid Representative because they wanted a character that wasn't Samus (or the Samus that the internet fantasizes about) and because some people thought that Sakurai was never gonna change his mind because Sakurai never changes his mind (*COUGH* VILLAGER *COUGH* PACMAN *COUGH* MII *COUGH*) they flocked in an attempt to compromise, despite Sylux having nothing on what is essentially the most recurring Metroid character not called Samus or a Metroid.

IN the end, Ridley won despite Sakurai saying no last time, because an evil sadistic Space Pterosaur who breaths Fire and Plasma who is considered Samus's most fearsome foe is more much, MUCH interesing than an edgy robot-looking dude with a Neon Toaster Face.

Once Ridley showed up, and Dark Samus took the echo mantle, the only reason for Sylux's support was evoporated in attoseconds. Metroid's Major cast is now complete, and if Sylux wants some of that, he will have to build a fanbase that's not built on empty promises or support that comes from people that want another character entirely. All he has now is beign a Nintendo video game character, which isn't saying much at all.

Until Prime 4's supposed reveal with Sylux as the big baddie, he will be nothing but a forgotten memory alongside Rundas and Anthony Higgs (remember him?)

Want: 0%

Thank god those days are over. I do consider myself someone who roots for the underdog (KOF US Sports Team, Yamcha, Grant Danasty, etc) but the thing is, the support for Sylux never felt genuine. He was presented not as a formidable second choice, but as a last resort. His resume as a character is laughable, and showed how desperate some people were for another Metroid character, and pushed for it no matter how lackluster the options were.

Now that we got the truly important Metroid character in Smash, the representation argument is no longer an excuse to add this guy (and no, FE's absurd character roster is not an excuse either, i would cut FE characters before i were to add the likes of Sylux)

As for a Rival to Samus? **** that noise. We already have an Archemesis for Samus, his name is RIDLEY. and he was made a far bigger impact since 1994 than Sylux has ever done in his entire ****ing presence in the franchise.

Maybe in the future when Sylux actually makes in impact my tone will change, but for now? Bleugh.

T-TH-TH-TH-THET-T-THAT'S ALL FOLKS!

Chance: 3%

and here we have another example of it. Look guys, sometimes the abscense of something does not lead to something greater showing up. I was an Isaac supporter for Smash 4 DLC. I though his absence as an Assist Trophy was a positive, and that he would show up later as DLC, and you know what i got at the end?

and then it happened AGAIN in Ultimate. After Isaac's absence in the Assist reveals of June and August 2018, people thought he was gonna be playable.............he was shown as an AT at literally the last moment possible in November 1st. Same goes for Shadow, who was seen as the most likely character to become an Echo Fighter, made more apparent by Knuckles presence as AT as if he was taking Shadow's AT place..........he wasn't.

Porky's adition came due to timing in Brawl. During Brawl's development Mother 3 was an upcoming title, in fact Lucas was added before Sakurai KNEW that Mother 3 wasn't getting a worldwide release. It was a relevant title at the time and Smash always tends to use content of relevant games. Mother 3 was released recently, so it made sense to use the main villain of that games as one of the many bosses (just like Rayquaza for example) and the main villain from Mother 3 just so happened to also be a main force in Earthbound. By the time Smash 4 rolled around Mother 3 was no longer relevant and it shows, so much so Lucas only made it as a DLC character in Smash 4, and may have not been feautred in the next game if it wasn't for the "Everyone is here" idea. and Ultimate? Well Porky is cool and all, but compared to the likes new bosses such as Dracula, Rathalos, and Ganon? Yeah he was among the most expendable out the Brawl Bosses (Galleom was the token SSE Callback and Marx is just there for Sakurai to toot his own Kirby games horn)

As for his lack of Spirits? Again, sometimes weird absences happen. I mean DIDDY KONG didn't had a trophy in Melee while Dixie and K.Rool did, and the Strawberry Flower songs from Pikmin aren't in Ultimate, etc. Just because something is missing doesn't mean it's gonna appear later in a major way.

Want: 0%
For as much as a i like Earthbound and Mother 3, i have to say that i don't want more content from Mother in Smash, at least not now. Im honestly supirsed at how many representation Mother has when you look at it in perspective. Agruably larger franchises like Golden Sun and Rhythm Heaven who sold better are barely represented outside of cameo collectibles, while Mother gets the full package: Fighters, Stages, Assist Trophies, Soundtrack both old and remixed. Im happy to see more minor franchises get a chance to shine, but it's starting to really overstay it's welcome.

Im honestly pissed that we haven't gotten a single Wario Land stage and yet Earthbound, an SNES game from 1994 got 2 stages in 2001's Smash Bros Melee. I mean christ you could have added a FE stage instead of having 2 Earthbound stages, and you know something is really damn wrong when im asking for FE to get more conent. (yes i know it was planned)

If i were to add anymore Mother content, i would just add Ninten. Hell just make him an alt and base his look on that old commercial, im not even asking for a semi-clone here.

For as much as i do wish for more Nintendo characters, not all them can be winners.

Not making Noms or predicionts today, im going to sleep.

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain
nominations: shuichi saihara x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Porky especially feels like a bandwagon choice, I saw no desire to see him playable prior to release.
It was always Ninten, Kumatora, Masked Man and Paula, never Porky.

You never saw demand for Porky before that? I saw plenty, like not huge, but easily tied with Masked Man for the most out of any Mother character, more than Ninten and definitely more than Kumatora (I don't think I've seen a single person ask for Paula in Smash, does she even have a thread?)

 

[SargeAbernathy]

(Note: I am abstaining from Sylux)

The Mother Series is undergoing a very subtle resurgence. It has been celebrating several anniversaries: Mother's 30th anniversary and Mother 2's 25th anniversary were last year. Mother 3's 15th anniversary is next year. Pollyanna's comic collection book came with a good amount of new merchandise, the first part of Shigesato Itoi's Hobonichi Mother Project.

There may be something simmering in the Mother franchise. I highly doubt it would be a sequel, but it's possible that the games might be receiving translations and ports to the Switch. If this is true, I think Nintendo could capitalize on some well timed advertisement. The game is a cult classic in North America, despite there having been a rough history with localization.

And then there's the strange absence of Porky from the Smash game. Why would it be missing? Could it be possible they held back Porky for a Mother themed Challenger Pack to coincide with something happening with the franchise?
...

...

Well .... A Challenger Pack has to introduce a new stage, a series of spirits, and new music. Nintendo could do that with Min min and Byleth despite them already having franchise assets in the game. The representation of Arms and Three Houses (excluding the rest of Fire Emblem from this argument) was small ... and they easily built on top of that. Porky might have been removed from the game ... but all 4 stages, 2 assist trophies, and 28 spirits are in the game already. There's a lot of representation.

But then there's a counter argument. Had they held back more than just Porky and tried to sell it to us in a DLC Challenger Pack ... that wouldn't have looked good. Any new Mother pack would certainly have to contain NEW music and a NEW stage. So why hold back any of the old stuff?

I think it's possible we could get a Mother challenger pack.

I'm just not convinced it's Porky. I think Ninten is equally possible. I'll give Porky the edge though ... he is missing after all.

Porky Chances: 16%
Ninten Chances: 15%

Want: 100% for either character. It would give that franchise the nostalgic boost it deserves.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Sylux
Chance: 0%
I'm not sure why this character has got all this attention in speculation. I've nothing against him, but seriously, he's a minor character with a bunch of cameos in some random games.

The fact that his spirit is missing is weird since he's the only hunter who appeared in other games other than his debut game, but still, there are several random characters who are missing from the spirits list and the recent events have proven that it does mean absolutely nothing.

He can become an important character if he will ever get a major role in a game (Metroid Prime 4 maybe?), but until that actually happpens, he's still a very minor character from a spin-off and I don't see him being added in the game anytime soon.

Want: 15%
I'm not interested in him enough, I think he's too minor and doesn't need to be in Smash... I'd rather have an actual Metroid as a fighter (such as their Omega form).
Moveset-wise I think that he has nothing to make him stand out enough from all the other shooting characters; If he was a sniper maybe, but that's Trace not Sylux.

If Sylux will get a major role in Metroid Prime 4, my want score may change and even go over 50% (if the character is done well), but this has yet to happen, and there's also a chance that he will not even appear in the game.

Porky
Chance: 15%
Sakurai seems to love the Mother series, and Porky has got a lot of content in the previous Smash games; it's possible that he will be added, but IMO it's still kinda unlikely. He's even more niche compared to Dixie and I consider Dixie unlikely too.
It's possible but only if the rumored "Sakurai Bias" is true, which in this rating I'm assuming it's not.

Want: Abstain
I really don't care of the Mother franchise, I don't have any opinion on this character.

 

[Calamitas]

With no Spirit in Ultimate, I guess you could he's out of business
Rejected title: "IDK you guys, 2019 is the year of the pig, I'm feeling good about this"

Chance: 0%
I absolutely do not see it. Prior to Min Min's inclusion, the big argument in Porky's favour (and Sylux') was that they specifically excluded a Spirit for him because they intended to make him DLC down the road. But as we know now, that argument holds absolutely no water, as Spirits don't even deconfirm. So what does that leave Porky with? Quite frankly, pretty much nothing. Nintendo is picking the DLC (or at least giving Sakurai a pre-selection, I'm not certain on the details), and I absolutely do not think that they would pick him. Mother/Earthbound is a dead series, and unless they suddenly decide to do large-scale remakes of Earthbound and Mother 3, there is no way for Porky to get back to prominence. Not even fan support is really doing much in this case, since from what I can see, Porky is very far from the most frequently demanded characters. Seems like the Absolutely Safe Capsule also protects him from being included in Smash.

Want: 0%
Not to be rude to Earthbound fans, but. . . I really don't want Porky as a DLC fighter. The series has been officially dead for well over a decade, and only consists of three games that never even managed to achieve any kind of large-scale success, outside of their vocal online fanbase. And for a series like that, Earthbound is already absurdly well represented. Two unique fighters (with admittedly similar specials), four unique stages, and a great number of remixes and Spirits? There are ongoing series in Smash that wish they had this level of representation. Xenoblade, Pikmin, F-Zero, or even Punch-Out all could use some of the love that Earthbound has been getting (my own feelings about what that could entail for the first of these notwithstanding), and I'd quite frankly rather see them get it. What also doesn't help is that I could never really get into the series. I played Earthbound years ago, but I barely remember anything of that playthrough, other than me getting very frustrated with the game's inventory system. Its entire weirdness shtick just really didn't hold my attention.
All in all, I wouldn't absolutely hate Porky or anything like that, but I would by no means be thrilled about him, nor would I want him.

He's going to play a big rule in Prime 4, I promise!

Chance: 1%
Like I mentioned above, his big call to speculation "fame" is that he had no Spirit in the base game, with the added caveat that it all hinged on his promised prominence in Metroid Prime 4, the release for which he could coincide with. . . and then that got delayed. And while there is a chance that this still could come true for this second Fighter Pass, it still seems incredibly unlikely to me, especially since Metroid already got Ridley and Dark Samus as newcomers in the base game. Byleth being added despite Chrom being in the base game is one thing, considering that Nintendo really likes to push Fire Emblem, but Metroid? I don't think so, especially not since Sylux has no large-scale fan support. The last Metroid rep is in captivity.

Want: 5%
I never played Hunters, but eh, maybe? I suppose he could be kind of interesting. And unlike Mother, Metroid is a series that I at least can get somewhat into, and that isn't dead.

Predicting Paper Mario to get around 27.46%.
Predicting Captain Toad to get around 18.45%.

Gonna hold on to my extra noms for a while longer, since I want to see what the rumored upcoming Direct has to show.
So for now, I'm just gonna continue nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Stole Joel's Pokémon cards
Chance: 0%
Most of his hype was riding on the absence of a Spirit but that no longer has any ground to stand on because: 1. He would've been part of FP1 if it truly mattered and 2. Min Min happened. Since it's no longer a factor, I can't see why Nintendo would go for Porky. The Mother series is relatively niche and literally over. It has no future besides a potential Mother 3 localisation, maybe, don't count on it. Frankly, the franchise is quite lucky to have as much representation as it has. Personally, I already see the ASC Spirit as representing him but guess that wasn't enough for some people. At best I see him returning as a boss with some Boss Rush mode added in a later update, which I still don't consider that likely.

Want: 5%
I've played a bit of Earthbound but not to a point where Porky starts being plot significant. I know what he does later on but I currently have little personal experience with him. As far as first-parties go, there are quite a few characters I think deserve it more. When it comes to mech-controlling villains Eggman would also be my preferred choice.

If a future gen consel was a character
Chance: 3%
The thing I said about Porky's Spirit absence also applies here, tho since Sylux apparently actually has a future there's more of an argument to be made for him. Still, MP4 won't release for quite some time and FP2 will likely wrap up before development on that game finishes. Sylux would then be pretty unreliable as a shill pick. We've already had our fair share of Metroid newcomers in this game and the franchise doesn't seem to rank that high on Nintendo's priority list so either way Sylux wouldn't be a guarantee even if the timing did fit.

Want: Abstaining, only Metroid game I've played is Super.

Paper Mario: 37.22%
Captain Toad: 28.54%
Hades x15

 

[Lyncario]

The guy with an ego slightly larger than himself
Chance: 0.1%
Never say never, but he had almost no chances. The Mother series had nothing new since 2006 with Mother 3, and I guess the recent book for the 30th anniversary of the series, but yeah, I see no reason as to why Porky would join in fighter pass 2.
Want: 32%
He's fine, I'm neutral on him, but he has a cool theme so he gets slightly more. I would prefer Masked Man for a Mother vilain tho.

The Metroid guy who is actualy a guy
Chance: 7.5%
I think that a Prime 4 rep could happen for this pass, but since we have pretty much no info in the game I think that it would be either Sylux or a new character.
Want: 30%
He looks cool, I guess. I'm neutral on him. I'm not big on fps, but I recognise that Metroid Prime is really good.

Predictions
Captain Toad: 34.6%
Paper Mario: 49.8%

Nominations: 5 + 10 extra for an SMT rep

 

[fogbadge]

absent spirits are we're not doing taranza? joking aside

sylux
chances: 0% i just don't see it. at present there's not really anything else (that i am aware of) that sets him apart from the rest of the metroid prime hunters gang. sure he didnt have a spirit in the base game but spirits don't really make a lot of sense anyway. and yes years ago it was said that he was meant to have a big part in mp4 but how can we be sure that retro studios are even sticking to that plan from a long time ago and there nothing to suggest itd be out in time. not to mention metroid fans had to really push to get more characters in.
want: 0% i wanted to give hunters ago but i just can't play first person games, to disorienting. im sure hed have a great moveset but hes just not for me. ive always thought metroid shoud have another character apart from samus but there wasnt really anyone i really wanted.

porky
chances: 10% maybe but I have my doubts. i mean hes trapped in the ultimate safety capsule mother is finished and that's not gonna help anyone not to mention we've never really had any indication that sakurai wants anymore mother characters. he is one of the more popular mother characters from what ive seen but i think the masked man is more popular. and fan demand only gets you so far and doesnt work for everyone as character as popular for smash as ridley and k.rool struggle to get in.
want: 0% nah I don't really want the bully/dictator in smash. sure stomping around in a miniature version of a huge mech might be fun but id rather we had eggman in such a situation. and as far as mother characters go id rather have ninten, jeff or boney. bad guys arent for me and so far eggman and king boo seem to be the only exceptions

nominate nate adams x5

 

[MarioDDR755]

OK, here goes.

Sylux
- Chance: 6.5%
Alright, so, Metroid has three characters and an echo with half of them coming just recently in Ultimate. The likelihood of another Metroid rep coming on the fighter pass is greatly reduced just for that. The fighter pass fighters have either been third parties or characters to promote recent Nintendo games, so the main way I see Sylux making it is if he has a notable role in Metroid Prime 4. By all accounts, said game is in development hell, but it is conceivable that it is further along than we think...? So if MP4 ends up releasing next holiday, with Sylux an important character, it's very possible. And I have to think that Nintendo would like for MP4 to be a big hit.

I say it has to be that, since he is absolutely not going to make it by his role in Hunters. If he had any chance at all from just that, it went away totally when Ridley was added.

- Want: 23%
I think he'd be good foil for Samus. He's something like a rival type who would be a good contrast. Plus, Metroid is just an interesting series and highlighting another non-Samus character would be good for the series I think. He might be a bit fun to use.

Porky
- Chance: 0.5%
Porky is in a similar situation as Sylux, which is that there's no way he's making it in unless a game he might be in comes out soon. However, it's a bigger stretch than saying MP4 might happen to say that a localization or remake of Mother 3 is going to happen. By all accounts, the series is just dead, and adding another character would be somewhat pointless in the series' current state.

But I don't think it's impossible that they could announce a remake of Mother 3 for Switch, or something. It's not like it isn't an actual meme that fans outside of Japan really want it, so if they do it right, it could be successful. Then again, Nintendo's got quite the handful of dead IPs that they're just seemingly not too interested in reviving.

- Want: 32%
I am on board with the popular sentiment that it's interesting to have the villains from series be added, and Porky is surely the best fit for that for Mother. His being in a mecha would be quite scary and memorable, and if another Mother rep is to be added, it'd be good if they were very distinct from Ness and Lucas in terms of build and playstyle.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Sylux:

Chance: 3% - The only way this is happening is if Prime 4's development is ahead of where we think it is, which is unlikely given Retro have still been hiring people recently. Prime 4 is probably a mid-late 2022 release at earliest, so Sylux is not going to fit into FP2's timeframe, and he's certainly not going to get in on his Hunters credentials alone.

Want: 10% - Until Sylux proves himself as more than a minor character, I don't feel like he has any reason to get in, as is Metroid is perfectly represented. He'll probably make a lot more sense next game.

Porky:

Chance: 1% - Pretty much the only reason he's been discussed in Smash speculation is because of his notable lack of a Spirit, which is a point that's completely null and void now. Mother is already quite well represented for what it is, so I struggle to see why Nintendo would push for another character from the series.

Want: 100% - I love villains that get as cruel as possible, and Porky is absolutely the most rotten character that Nintendo own. Would love to see a fully realized mech character in Smash too, Bowser Jr. doesn't quite scratch that itch. Also, Earthbound is my favorite game ever, so in that sense the score is pretty self explanatory.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about these two.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I know nothing about these two.

Not even Porky, who was a boss you could Trophy Capture in Brawl?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Not even Porky, who was a boss you could Trophy Capture in Brawl?

I know, I need to expand my horizons, but in my defense, I was pretty young when I played Subspace Emissary. To me, he may as well been one of the game-original bosses.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I know, I need to expand my horizons, but in my defense, I was pretty young when I played Subspace Emissary. To me, he may as well been one of the game-original bosses.

It was him, Rayquaza, and the two Ridley forms.

 

[Oldhead]

Sylux
Chance: 1%
I feel like Metroid has hit their max characters for Ultimate, especially since M4 had to restart development so there isn't even a chance to do a tie-in with the new game. Since we got Ridley and Dark Samus, I don't see more Metroid unless there are non-Challenger Pack characters released at some point.
Want: 10%
Sylux is pretty cool, and I would have much rather had him over Dark Samus. I've never really played the FPS Metroid games (I know, I know), but one of the other Bounty Hunters would have been interesting to see in Smash.

Porky
Chance: 60%
I think Mother/Earthbound is the big series that Nintendo has slept on for so long that has the biggest chance to make a massive comeback. It's widely considered one of the greatest classic RPGs of all time, but it's biggest representation for the past 20 years has been Smash. Looking at how the Mother characters and levels are rendered in Smash, it's so beguiling to imagine an Earthbound remake or a Mother 4 that looked like their world looks in Smash.
In my mind, the biggest thing that Porky has going for him (apart from his absence from Ultimate, both as Spirit and Boss), is the "Heroes vs Villains" theme that we've seen used in the Ultimate reveal trailers. They have used that special art showing their classic protagonists squaring off against their rivals, and have shown them before revealing Ridley & K. Rool (and also showing returning fighter Wolf against Fox/Falco). Of the classic missing villains, Porky is the biggest presence, especially since he was used as a boss in Smash. I could totally see those images flash before a reveal of the Mother heroes finally facing down with Porky.
Want: 40%
I think Porky would be a cool inclusion, especially to complete the Heroes v Villains theme, and even more so if it meant a new/remastered Earthbound game. I think having his Mech form might be a little hard to incorporate, but it would be a cool new fighting style.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Sylux
Chance: 5%
His whole schtick was being at the right place at the right time. And now that place and time has been delayed pretty harshly with still no clue how and when he will feature in the ever elusive Metroid Prime 4, which keeps him from getting that sweet relevance bandwagon. Also the ”not a Spirit“ thing is now decisively not a good thing.

Want: 20%
His other whole schtick was being Metroid but not Ridley or Dark Samus back when Metroid was starving for reps. Now he’s just Metroid and the series has gotten its far more important antagonists playable. Also, not a fun moveset at all.

Porky
Chance: 5%
I see no reason for him to appear other than some “considered but forgotten but not too forgotten” idea, but even then that is mostly based on wishful thinking. Still, Mother 3 has been requested for a long time so I could see that happening with as much confidence as Metroid Prime 4 in 2021ish

Want: 70%
I like him. He’s a lil weasel but he’s a lil weasel in a mech

Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[Calamitas]

People still unironically going on about Ultimate having a Heroes vs Villains theme? Wow.

 

[Oldhead]

People still unironically going on about Ultimate having a Heroes vs Villains theme? Wow.

I mean, it literally does. Not for every character obviously, but they have the special Heroes v Villains artwork that they've shown before multiple reveal trailers. I think by all definitions that would be considered "a theme". Not saying it applies to the game as a whole, but it is something they have done twice now, clearly intentionally.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I mean, it literally does. Not for every character obviously, but they have the special Heroes v Villains artwork that they've shown before multiple reveal trailers. I think by all definitions that would be considered "a theme". Not saying it applies to the game as a whole, but it is something they have done twice now, clearly intentionally.

That trailer including the Hero vs. Villian artwork being reused was a "hey it's another Rareware character" thing, not a "heroes vs. villains" thing. Otherwise we wouldn't have a pass full of protagonists, one of which literally gets called Hero.