Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MasterWarlord]

Waddle Dee Want - 0%: I have not personally played any post Sakurai Kirby games, where Waddle Dee is a very minor character. His importance only upscales later on in the later games, and I still personally think he's a rather bland character.

Waddle Dee Chance - 20%: Sakurai does not seem to want to represent anything besides his own Kirby games outside of music, the fact that Super Star is still getting absurd amounts of representation even in the most recent game shows that. Sakurai views Kirby as his child and does not acknowledge what comes after his involvement in the series. Waddle Dee is a minor character within Sakurai's games.

That all said, he is a deserving character with a good resume from the recent games, and is apparently popular. He also had a decent amount of support during the ballot, which is the only time popularity mattered. He is a decent candidate for a theoretical "advertisement" fighter pass, spear headed by Min Min and the gen 8 Pokemon.

Dixie Kong Want - 35%: I am not much of a fan of Dixie as a character, and personally consider Cranky more deserving. However, I would like to see the Donkey Kong franchise continue expanding (No pun intended). After all of those years in Smash speculation battling each other, it would be fantastic to finally see K. Rool and Dixie Kong fight against each other for real.

Dixie Kong Chance - 20%: If Min Min is really showing a more first party based challenger pack, that's good news for Dixie Kong as one of the few decent 3rd party candidates left. However, I find it hard to believe that her ballot support wasn't cannibalized by both K. Rool and Banjo, who had demonstrably high performance considering the fact they're in. I think it is also an issue that Dixie Kong is too unique to be an echo fighter, but struggles to come up with moveset potential for her own fully unique moveset.

Edit: Don't know if my post will be counted or not, 10 minutes late.

 

[fogbadge]

sol badguy? what kind of a name is that?

ill rate nightmare in the morning

 

[Perkilator]

A Tale of Souls and Swords
Chance: 40%
He's certainly popular, but he's got some competition to deal with. Heihachi's not one of them anymore, that's for sure.

Want: 70%
Bugger the anti-sword people. I mainly want him in for a rematch against .

Abstain on Sol Badguy, because I already made a "Dominic bad-gee" joke when we last rated him.

Porky: 30%
Sylux: 20%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[SharkLord]

sol badguy? what kind of a name is that?

ill rate nightmare in the morning

To be fair, that's just a designation that he later took up himself because he thought it was fitting. His real name is actually Fredrick Bulsara, but he doesn't like being called that.

 

[Speed Weed]

Also I'd just like to thank everyone for making the Dee/Dixie day a very lively discussion. I know it's hard to want to talk about Smash in general after recent events, but it's fun speculation like this that makes me so invested in Smash to begin with.

honestly i think debates like this really show the importance of rerates

rating completely new characters is all fine and dandy, but it can get a bit boring when 90% of the characters we rate before a reveal everyone unanimously agrees don't have a chance in hell. so when we give more notable characters another shot, characters that CAN be debated, i feel that's when the magic of rate their chances really shines through

anyway, i'll draft my rating for the fighting game men tomorrow

 

[fogbadge]

To be fair, that's just a designation that he later took up himself because he thought it was fitting. His real name is actually Fredrick Bulsara, but he doesn't like being called that.

hmm I can respect that kind of background detail

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Nightmare Want - 100%: Not many 3rd party franchises could make me happier to be represented than Soul Calibur. In the day where most newcomers are 3rd parties, most newcomer choices are all boring main characters. That said, Nightmare is the main villain of his franchise rather than a protagonist, sticking out heavily from the likes of the other 3rd party newcomers. His sword makes Ike's look like a toothpick, the raw level of heavyweight strength this guy would bring to the table would be next level. Certainly not another simple sword fighter. He has plenty of potential too with his Soul Edge able to consume souls and materialize into other weapons/a horse.

Nightmare Chance - 7%: Namco views Soul Calibur as a B list franchise and doesn't want to invest heavy money into it due to viewing it as an underperforming franchise. While Soul Calibur 6 has done well as far as I know, I don't know if that will do much to change Namco's mind. I just cannot realistically see Namco choose to represent Soul Calibur over Tekken with Heihachi. While Heihachi is deconfirmed, there is still the possibility of a different Tekken character like Kazuya. It's happened before with Arms, as people thought no Arms character was possible when Spring Man was an assist trophy. A Tales character such as Llyod also provides competition for Nightmare. After Soul Calibur 5's terrible performance, the franchise was dormant for a long, dry period. If Nightmare gets in, it would be part of a heavy effort to revive the franchise alongside Soul Calibur 6, or simply a character added on Sakurai's whim.

I will say that if a Soul Calibur character happened, it would absolutely be Nightmare. There are far too many "main protagonists" within the Soul Calibur franchise to easily narrow it down to one character, whereas Nightmare is clearly and consistently the main villain. He is the logo, and he wields Soul Edge, which is the primary thing that defines the series. The series would be named Soul Edge instead of Soul Calibur if not for copyright reasons.

Abstaining on Sol Badguy.

Nominate Monokuma x5.

 

[JCKirbs]

Also I'd just like to thank everyone for making the Dee/Dixie day a very lively discussion. I know it's hard to want to talk about Smash in general after recent events, but it's fun speculation like this that makes me so invested in Smash to begin with.

For as long as it's Bandana Dee vs. The World, i'd be willing to talk a mile a minute for the little guy.
(Not to mention that I think i've developed a newfound appreciation for Dixie Kong because of all the support she's been getting as well).

Now if you'll excuse me, i'll probably have to sheepishly abstain for the majority of the characters which are left...

 

[Calamitas]

Sorry this has gone on for a long period of time.

I do not have any personal drama this time as an excuse. If I am being honest, the reason this took a while was due to the controversy in the community right now. I just found it hard to stay as engaged as I would have liked to given everything going on. Is that a good excuse? I don't know, but its the truth.

So I guess you could say, the past couple of days were kinda a. . . Nightmare?

I'll see myself out now.

Ratings I'll do later.

 

[BowserKing]

Nightmare

Chance: 10%. What I know is that his inclusion would be surprising. But the most likely case scenario he would be a spirit or a Mii costume.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much, but he sounds like a fun character to play as. Overall, he would be a decent rep.

Sol

Chance: 15%. He is commonly suggested, and his chance may have increased a bit. He is quite possible for this game and potential sequels.

Want: 55%. I now know more about him thanks to this community (and Tv Tropes). He would be fun to play as, and I can see him fight Snake. Overall, he would be fun.

Prediction: Porky (40%) and Sylux (40%)

Noms: 5 for Giygas

 

[DanganZilla5]

Abstain on Sol Badguy (But he is not a bad guy!). I don't know anything about Guilty Gear.


This ain't a nightmare....this is a badass dream

Chance: 35%

I'd argue Soul Calibur has a good shot. One thing about many of the third party characters in Smash is that they are no strangers to crossovers. Soul Calibur has had many, many crossovers and Link even starred in one of the games on the Gamecube. Soul Calibur is a popular series with multiple games on Nintendo consoles. Nightmare himself is one of the most iconic characters from the series. Now here is the interesting thing about Nightmare: He is an antagonist, but he is also technically the protagonist too. He is the alter ego form of Siegfried, who is considered the main character of the series. When Siegfried is consumed by the Soul Edge, a sword with evil energy, he turns into Nightmare. Since Sakurai tends to pick the main character, Nightmare would technically be chosen, but he would basically be sharing the slot with Siegfried. It's possible that Siegfried could be chosen and Nightmare wouldn't be incorporated into his moveset. But with Nightmare being such a major character and a big part of Siegfried's character and story, I can't imagine Sakurai skipping out on the opportunity for Siegfried to be able to transform into Nightmare.

As for competition, with Heihachi dead that definitely helps out Nightmare's case. I still think Lloyd is the most likely Bandai Namco character. But when it comes to fighting games, Soul Calibur is unmatched at this point in my opinion. Unless if there is a major fighting game series I'm forgetting and no I don't think Mortal Kombat and Virtua Fighter pose much competition for many reasons.

Overall, Nightmare's chances are looking solid. Aside from Lloyd I don't think there is any major hurdles and I can see Soul Calibur being one of those "out of left-field but makes a lot of sense" series. I can totally see it happening.

Want: 75%

I'm thinking why am I not supporting this guy? He has an amazing design, awesome moveset potential, and comes from a respectable series with great music. Maybe I should play these games more often. I played one of the games on PS2 a long time ago and the cast of characters certainly stood out to me. Sign me up.

Predictions:
Sylux - 15%
Porky - 25%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Smady]

Nightmare

Oh wait. I will now show you, the greatest nightmare!

Nightmare

Want 100%: An underrated gem of a pick because of his immensely giant sword that outdoes every existing sword moveset in Smash (quite a feat) and a combination of very fun magic (channeling souls, his magic sword, his various energy attacks) with a great character. He would inevitably be one of the most fun super heavyweights imaginable in the game and what sets him apart there is his range is not disjointed whatsoever, he has magic but the majority of his set would still be his sword, no gimmicks. It would be amazing to see how Sakurai manages to balance this as it really makes Cloud look easy by comparison.

This is one of the third party picks that would truly get me excited on the basis of the character alone. As one of the few potential villains they could add as a third party, but also one of the few super heavyweights. He's such a strong personality and his moveset screams it at every moment, with overwhelming power and grit. I can imagine a very entertaining high risk high reward playstyle where he has a weak recovery, but can win a match in just a few hits like Ganondorf. Unlike Ganondorf he would have tremendous range and a few other gimmicks. It's the perfect time for this kind of character too as DLC, where Sakurai can more freely experiment when he balances the newcomers.

Chance 10%: This series pretty much peaked in the early 00s as far as relevancy, where SCII had Link as a guest fighter. This was the only game in the series on a Nintendo console, the previous ones being Playstation/Sega only, and ones since being on the other systems/PC. Nonetheless the Link connection and how popular SCII was, and the fact that Heihachi has been super confirmed as not going to happen gives Nightmare a slim chance of being chosen as the second Namco character. We have gone a long time without getting the second character for one of the main developers of the game and ignoring that, it's absurd Namco only gets 1 character when they have the library of IPs they do.

Nightmare would absolutely be the pick if SC was selected, though I think it's more the case that Nightmare himself would be selected and that he originates in Soulcalibur is just a bonus. Sakurai could realise how cool this would be in practice for it to realistically happen, then use the fact it's owned by Namco as an extra excuse.

The other negative of this is of course Namco hasn't been pushing Soulcalibur itself much these days. They push Tales far more, they push the Soul series far more, they have a bunch of IPs Sakurai would likely choose from besides SC. I also get the sense SC is bigger outside of Japan than in it, especially with how western-focused some of the guests have been (Assassin's Creed guy, Geralt, Spawn, Darth Vader and Yoda) all makes this a bit of a long shot. It would be one of the best possible outcomes if it were to happen, but it's very much dependent on Sakurai seeing the character's vast potential.

Abstain on Sol Badguy

Monokuma x5

 

[Lyncario]

The Fate/Stay Night reference works, right?
Chance: 5%
I though that if we were to get another Bamco character, it would have been Heihachi, and well, we all saw what hapened to him. So yeah, that already makes Nightmare unlikely for me to begin with. And even if we were to get another, I think that it would be either Lloyd or Yuri. So yeah, I do not think that Nightmare is likely at all. Howver, he still has a chance tho, even if I think it's small.
Want: 65%
I' m pretty neutral and leaning positive for him. I like swordmans, and he looks cool. So yeah, it's enough for him to get a 65% in my book. However, I lack atachment to Soul Calibur, meaning that my thoughs on him are mostly superficials.

THAT IS BULL**** BLAZING, STILL MY HEART IS BLAZING!
Chance: 25%
With ArcSys being part of SSBU with River City Ransom spirits in the game, it's proof that it's possible that Smash could get one of their characters, and for that, no one would be better than the poster boy of Guilty Gear, Sol Badguy. Now, thre's one thing that goes against him, and it's that the Guilty Gear director was against GG having guest characters since it's storyline was still ongoing. This should however not be a problem for a non-canon crossover where Sol is the one apearing as a guest. However, while I think of Sol as decently likely, there's still the fact that Nintendo could just not choose him, and ArcSys certainly is not in the same league as Koei Tecmo or Level 5 in term of havnig a good relationship with Nintendo while having no characters in Smash, and other big Japanese 3rd party like Square Enix or Capcom could get another character in Smash before ArcSys get their first, and that's not talking about western 3rdparty getting a character. But despite that, I still think that he has a chance, and not one that is too low to top it off, but that may be my bias talking.
Want: 95%
Hell. Freaking. Yes. Guilty Gear is one of the best fighting games out there with one of the best soundtracks, and on top of that Sol is more like Terry in the way that he's very cool and flashy rather than plain like Ryu. He may not be in my top 10, but he's almost in it, and he's my most wanted character when it comes to characters that originates from fighting games.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

• The Nightmare Before Dark Souls
  • Chance: 60% - Nightmare's chances are kind of a mixed bag. On one hand, Soulcalibur just recently made a successful comeback, the series is known for constantly bringing in guest characters so it wouldn't be surprising if a Soul character ended up guest-ing in another game, Soulcalibur II in particular is famous for having Link as a guest character in the GameCube version, and Min Min getting in as the ARMS rep means that (at least in regards to fighting games) non-protagonist characters are fair game. On the other hand, Nightmare has some competition within the Soul series (I think Sophitia and maybe Taki have just as much a chance, possibly also Yoshimitsu for a potential curveball), then there's the competition among Bandai Namco characters in general (even with Heihachi getting costume-ed again, R.I.P., there's still Lloyd of Tales fame, as well as others like Don-Chan and the Prince of All Cosmos), then there's the issue of Bandai Namco seemingly not being interested in having more guest characters in Smash. Overall, while I think Nightmare is more likely than not, it's a general toss up.
  • Want: 70% - While not my preferred choice for the next Namco character (again, R.I.P. Heihachi), if Soulcalibur is getting a character, I think Nightmare would be the best option, or at least tied for the best with Sophitia. We don't have a character from a 3D fighting game or a weapon-based one, and a Soulcalibur character could kill two birds with one stone in that regard. Plus, it'd be a cool cross-promotional opportunity to see a Soulcalibur guest character in Smash, coinciding with an announcement that Soulcalibur VI is coming to Nintendo Switch with its own Nintendo guest character.
• You are Sol Badguy, but this does not mean you are "bad guy"
  • Chance: 50% - Now that Terry and SNK are represented in Smash and have shown that the "little guys" have a chance, I think Sol Badguy, or at least some sort of Arc System Works, have a decent chance. In terms of Guilty Gear characters, Sol is absolutely the character who would be chosen to represent that series. Other than having to compete with really big third-parties, I'd say his biggest obstacles right now are other possible Arc System Works characters (Ragna from BlazBlue, Kunio-Kun, and Billy and Jimmy Lee from Double Dragon).
  • Want: 70% - Again, not my most preferred character from Arc System Works, but if for some reason Billy and Jimmy are off the table, then I would happily accept Sol Badguy as the secondary choice. Another fighting game character, one who comes from an amazing looking fighting game that could bring some new mechanics and amazing music into Smash. Plus, he's one of few characters who I feel could work as a "representing not just his home series, but entire company" character with Arc System Works, like with Terry and SNK.
• Nominate - Ezio x 5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstaining. I don't feel like talking about either of these 2 characters

Noms: Rocket League rep x5

 

[amageish]

Man this thread has been busy lately. Good job keeping spirits up in spite of the depressing current state of affairs, everyone.

Nightmare

Chance: 20%. Now, in general, I don't think the choice of Min Min over Spring Man represents a total upheaval of how DLC selection works. Min Min had a lot of unique stuff going for her, including fan popularity and unique mechanics/moveset potential that put her over the edge in addition to developer bias. Therefore, I don't really get why supporters of protagonists are collectively panicking...

Now, as for the Soulcalibur series? Yeah, Min Min has changed my mind about how it could be represented. It has a big ensemble-y cast with unique characters with unique mechanics and differing levels of popularity. I don't think Nightmare is necessarily a shoo-in as the rep anymore, in spite of his lore presence and apperance in the team's logo. He'd still be my most likely pick, but with competition both from other Namco reps and from other Soulcalibur characters (stares at Lloyd)... I'm not going over 20 for this one.

Want: Abstain. I've enjoyed all the Soulcalibur games I've played, but I don't think I've ever actually played as Nightmare... *shrugs*

Sol Badguy

Chance: 5%. I'm honestly surprised I haven't rated him before. I guess I was just lurking during the Ragna/Sol day a while ago... Anyway... Arc System Works has River City spirits in Smash, but at this point the number of companies with content in Smash and no playable characters outnumbers the amount of available roster spots left, so I feel like that doesn't mean that much anymore. So, with that in mind, we have an important fighting game character from a company with some, if not an amazing amount of, Nintendo connections and an upcoming game ripe for promotion. Dark horse candidate for sure.

Want: 80%. Guilty Gear music in Smash? Yes. Very yes. Also Sol himself would be cool too I guess.

Nominations: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Sylux = 10% / Porky = 8%.

 

[Drason]

Dixie Kong
Chance:40%
This is one I have heard quite a bit around the smash community circles so I don't think it's too wild to see her get in. Her moveset does lend itself to being rather creative with her main method of attack being her hair. It also gives the dev team a lot of room to work with what's given
Want:75%
I like Dixie's potential. She has a range of close and long range techniques that could make her a fun zone or defensive character. She's also a Donkey Knog rep which is a series I adore.
Bandana Dee
Chance:70%
Another name I hear quite a few times online. I can see him getting in considering he seems to be the one whose name I heard mentioned almost as much as Waluigi. From what I've seen he also seems to have a rather interesting set of moves to chose from but at the same time he could end up as an Echo fighter(highly unlikely but still a possibility).
Want:50%
Never that big of a Kirby fan but he seems like a no-brainer if you're picking someon from Kirby to be a rep. I just want to see how they'll transfer his ridiculous moveset to Smash
Nom:
Yoshimitsu(SoulCalibur/Tekken)

 

[PeridotGX]

Since the Dee day is still going, I feel like re-visiting one of my favorite memories from Smashboards and Rate their Chances: does anyone here remember bazoomba?

Basically, way back in RTC for Smash 4 someone made the argument that adding Bandanna Dee in Smash was like tossing in a goomba with a bazooka, called Bazoomba.
The hilarity came from the fact both this concept as well as the name sounded so cool and appealing to people that the person making the argument shot themselves in the foot: everyone responded positive to the idea of bazoomba in smash, and we even had people draw out the concept and some even nominate it for getting rated. The hype around bazoomba was glorious. To this day that name is stuck in my memory lol

I looked that up, and wow, people went crazy for Bazoomba.
https://smashboards.com/threads/rat...ting-the-direct.338473/page-138#post-16007034

Waddle Dee Want - 0%: I have not personally played any post Sakurai Kirby games, where Waddle Dee is a very minor character. His importance only upscales later on in the later games, and I still personally think he's a rather bland character.

Waddle Dee Chance - 20%: Sakurai does not seem to want to represent anything besides his own Kirby games outside of music, the fact that Super Star is still getting absurd amounts of representation even in the most recent game shows that. Sakurai views Kirby as his child and does not acknowledge what comes after his involvement in the series. Waddle Dee is a minor character within Sakurai's games.

That all said, he is a deserving character with a good resume from the recent games, and is apparently popular. He also had a decent amount of support during the ballot, which is the only time popularity mattered. He is a decent candidate for a theoretical "advertisement" fighter pass, spear headed by Min Min and the gen 8 Pokemon.

Dixie Kong Want - 35%: I am not much of a fan of Dixie as a character, and personally consider Cranky more deserving. However, I would like to see the Donkey Kong franchise continue expanding (No pun intended). After all of those years in Smash speculation battling each other, it would be fantastic to finally see K. Rool and Dixie Kong fight against each other for real.

Dixie Kong Chance - 20%: If Min Min is really showing a more first party based challenger pack, that's good news for Dixie Kong as one of the few decent 3rd party candidates left. However, I find it hard to believe that her ballot support wasn't cannibalized by both K. Rool and Banjo, who had demonstrably high performance considering the fact they're in. I think it is also an issue that Dixie Kong is too unique to be an echo fighter, but struggles to come up with moveset potential for her own fully unique moveset.

Edit: Don't know if my post will be counted or not, 10 minutes late.

Nightmare

Oh wait. I will now show you, the greatest nightmare!

Nightmare

Want 100%: An underrated gem of a pick because of his immensely giant sword that outdoes every existing sword moveset in Smash (quite a feat) and a combination of very fun magic (channeling souls, his magic sword, his various energy attacks) with a great character. He would inevitably be one of the most fun super heavyweights imaginable in the game and what sets him apart there is his range is not disjointed whatsoever, he has magic but the majority of his set would still be his sword, no gimmicks. It would be amazing to see how Sakurai manages to balance this as it really makes Cloud look easy by comparison.

This is one of the third party picks that would truly get me excited on the basis of the character alone. As one of the few potential villains they could add as a third party, but also one of the few super heavyweights. He's such a strong personality and his moveset screams it at every moment, with overwhelming power and grit. I can imagine a very entertaining high risk high reward playstyle where he has a weak recovery, but can win a match in just a few hits like Ganondorf. Unlike Ganondorf he would have tremendous range and a few other gimmicks. It's the perfect time for this kind of character too as DLC, where Sakurai can more freely experiment when he balances the newcomers.

Chance 10%: This series pretty much peaked in the early 00s as far as relevancy, where SCII had Link as a guest fighter. This was the only game in the series on a Nintendo console, the previous ones being Playstation/Sega only, and ones since being on the other systems/PC. Nonetheless the Link connection and how popular SCII was, and the fact that Heihachi has been super confirmed as not going to happen gives Nightmare a slim chance of being chosen as the second Namco character. We have gone a long time without getting the second character for one of the main developers of the game and ignoring that, it's absurd Namco only gets 1 character when they have the library of IPs they do.

Nightmare would absolutely be the pick if SC was selected, though I think it's more the case that Nightmare himself would be selected and that he originates in Soulcalibur is just a bonus. Sakurai could realise how cool this would be in practice for it to realistically happen, then use the fact it's owned by Namco as an extra excuse.

The other negative of this is of course Namco hasn't been pushing Soulcalibur itself much these days. They push Tales far more, they push the Soul series far more, they have a bunch of IPs Sakurai would likely choose from besides SC. I also get the sense SC is bigger outside of Japan than in it, especially with how western-focused some of the guests have been (Assassin's Creed guy, Geralt, Spawn, Darth Vader and Yoda) all makes this a bit of a long shot. It would be one of the best possible outcomes if it were to happen, but it's very much dependent on Sakurai seeing the character's vast potential.

Abstain on Sol Badguy

Monokuma x5

I think this is the first time I've seen 2 MYMers outside of MYM at once.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know much about either of these guys.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[SharkLord]

I looked that up, and wow, people went crazy for Bazoomba.
https://smashboards.com/threads/rat...ting-the-direct.338473/page-138#post-16007034


I think this is the first time I've seen 2 MYMers outside of MYM at once.

I find it interesting how much Bandana Dee's popularity has increased since then. All across the board, he was pretty low, mainly because "Hat Goomba" and "Kirby's fine where it is." I suppose seven years is enough to discredit those arguments, huh?

 

[Glaciacott]

I find it interesting how much Bandana Dee's popularity has increased since then. All across the board, he was pretty low, mainly because "Hat Goomba" and "Kirby's fine where it is." I suppose seven years is enough to discredit those arguments, huh?

Time has been kind on Bandanna Dee, with tons of more appearances and exposure. As well as several desired characters getting in AND another Smash happening, to the point where now the desire for another Kirby rep is much more present.

What's more hilarious to me is reading all the disbelief, including my own, at the idea of Rosalina getting in Smash before Toad. Lol, cue Rosalina getting in roughly a month later and Toad still not being a fighter.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Sol Badguy, since very little has changed for his circumstances aside from the possibility of a first party-oriented pass. Outside of that, it depends on whether or not ArcSys gets a character, and if so, it's basically a decision between Old Guard Sol Badguy vs New Blood Ragna the Bloodedge.


Nightmare

Chance: 25% - With the appearance of Heihachi's Mii Costume in Min Min's presentation, one of the two titan pillars of Namco franchises has been deconfirmed, and the rising tide of this raises all Namco boats, which inevitably bodes well for Nightmare. If there's any pattern that's held true, it's that if a DLC Mii Costume is released and that costume's character's franchise is represented with a DLC playable character, then said Mii Costume will ALWAYS come with their franchise's character. Persona costumes only came with Joker, Dragon Quest Costumes only came with Hero, King of Fighters/Fatal Fury/Samuai Showdown/etc shared universe only came with Terry, and Ninjara with Min Min. So this rules out another Tekken character like Jin Kazama. Also on the subject of Mii Costumes is theming in most packs. Esports and Fighting game characters, for example, came with Min Min, and Heihachi fit her pack. The last remaining Namco costumes are Gil and Lloyd, both fantasy swordsman who'd be perfectly fitting for Nightmare.

Soul Calibur's got plenty of merits of its' own, being a fighting game series well-known for crossovers, even including Link in Gamecube Soul Calibur II, and that historical aspect is something that'd catch Sakurai's eye. The series has also made a pretty good comeback with Soul Calibur VI after the rut it was in with Soul Calibur V/mediocre spinoff days, saving the franchise from being shut down. He's also the face of the franchise in a way, which definitely helps him in regards to inter-series competition.

Though there are a few caveats as well. Outside of Namco's general behavior of not adding more of their characters outside of Pac Man, the fact that the Soul Calibur franchise was nearly canned does not bode well for Namco's view of it, and it may not be chosen over another one of Namco's many IPs. Inter company competition is still a huge issue for Nightmare, especially with one of the top titans still on the table.

Tales of - Celebrating the 25th anniversary this year and a titan that Namco loves to push. Plus Lloyd is a longtime fan request and Yuri is an extremely popular Namco character originating from this franchise, so this could very well be considered a priority. By far the biggest hurdle to overcome for any other Namco character.

Dark Souls - Raising some demand of its' own and is shaping up to become a modern icon. It just had a release on the Switch (Soul Calibur's last game on Nintendo systems was a Wii spinoff), and even had its' own Amiibo to go with it! Is also being pushed by Namco and could be prioritized due to recent good relations with Nintendo.

Katamari - Has also made a similar major comeback after a 7 year hiatus from an underperforming game (granted, it was due to being a Vita game where anything that isn't a JRPG underperforms, but still), with its' first mainline title on Nintendo systems, with the Switch version getting most of the focus. Celebrating its' 15th anniversary last year with special merchandise and even a Loot Crate, with one piece of merch hinting at a We Love Katamari remaster. The game also exceeded expectations despite releasing the same day as Smash and has definitely caught Namco's attention. The Prince also appears in Pac Man's taunt, which no longer deconfirms with it being Pass #2 now and showing that the character is present in the minds of the developers.

Idolm@ster - While more prevalent on the arcade front, it has had a couple of Nintendo entries and is always a reliable moneymaker for Namco. Releases are still frequent.

Taiko no Tatsujin - Popular in both the east and west, having frequent releases on Nintendo systems, and also known for being a major crossover through music. The series has always sold very well and was featured alongside Namco's major franchises in their recent Happy New Year art. Also featured in Pac Man's taunt and is now back on the table!

Digimon - Making a bit of a comeback of its' own, Digimon's games have been performing relatively well and has the possibility of being chosen to represent the Bandai side of the company (Like Cloud with Square/Hero with Enix).

Overall, Nightmare definitely has a good shot and has benefited greatly from the deconfirmation of Tekken, but his biggest issues are his series history and inter-company competition. But he could surprise us, it isn't always popularity that guarantees a slot!


Want: 10% - I've read into his potential movesets and a magic-wieldiing heavy swordsman would make fore a fun moveset and a fantastic change from most swordsmen in the game (who typically rely on speed or combos), especially compared to a Tales of protagonist. Still I unfortunately have to give him a low score due to being inter company competition for my most wanted, The Prince of All Cosmos.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Porky - 30.64%
Stylux - 14.39%

Expecting people to overrate Porky big time. Stylux is a possibility but I'm not expecting high scores due to the uncertainty regarding Metroid Prime 4's development, and whether or not he'll actually be in it.

 

[SharkLord]

Time has been kind on Bandanna Dee, with tons of more appearances and exposure. As well as several desired characters getting in AND another Smash happening, to the point where now the desire for another Kirby rep is much more present.

What's more hilarious to me is reading all the disbelief, including my own, at the idea of Rosalina getting in Smash before Toad. Lol, cue Rosalina getting in roughly a month later and Toad still not being a fighter.

Yep. Basing things on what goes on in their home series, Bandana Dee's been one of the lucky ones. The problem is now people are trying to make other characters seem more important than him, contrary to what the games themselves say. Still, we've gotten most of the old fan favorites and still no Kirby rep, and his popularity shot up quite a bit. I'd argue that BWD getting in is all a matter of if Kirby will get any more representation.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I find it interesting how much Bandana Dee's popularity has increased since then. All across the board, he was pretty low, mainly because "Hat Goomba" and "Kirby's fine where it is." I suppose seven years is enough to discredit those arguments, huh?

Time has been kind on Bandanna Dee, with tons of more appearances and exposure. As well as several desired characters getting in AND another Smash happening, to the point where now the desire for another Kirby rep is much more present.

What's more hilarious to me is reading all the disbelief, including my own, at the idea of Rosalina getting in Smash before Toad. Lol, cue Rosalina getting in roughly a month later and Toad still not being a fighter.

Yep. Basing things on what goes on in their home series, Bandana Dee's been one of the lucky ones. The problem is now people are trying to make other characters seem more important than him, contrary to what the games themselves say. Still, we've gotten most of the old fan favorites and still no Kirby rep, and his popularity shot up quite a bit. I'd argue that BWD getting in is all a matter of if Kirby will get any more representation.

Guys, Dee's day is over, any discussion relating to him is off-topic now.

 

[jamesster445]

The Azure Knight
Chance: 25%
Want: 70%

I dont think we'd see a Soul Calibur character, but after Heihachi there may be a chance. And honestly I'd be more than ok with this. Nightmare has a badass demon horse super and honestly that's all I needed to know. But I wonder if Siegfried would.be more likely?

The Immoral Flame
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

As a Guilty Gear fan, I think people are greatly overestimating Sol's chances. While the Kunio spirits are a boon I dont think that's enough for Sol to be in Smash. I would be fine with his inclusion just for the fact that we get Daisuke's music in Smash. But I also feel like after Terry, Sol might be a little redundant. They share a lot of similar design traits and even moves (Daisuke did work with SNK before joining ArcSys).

Nominations: Jin Kazama

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Predictions
Porky 7%
Sylux 16%

 

[SharkLord]

The Azure Knight
Chance: 25%
Want: 70%

I dont think we'd see a Soul Calibur character, but after Heihachi there may be a chance. And honestly I'd be more than ok with this. Nightmare has a badass demon horse super and honestly that's all I needed to know. But I wonder if Siegfried would.be more likely?

The Immoral Flame
Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

As a Guilty Gear fan, I think people are greatly overestimating Sol's chances. While the Kunio spirits are a boon I dont think that's enough for Sol to be in Smash. I would be fine with his inclusion just for the fact that we get Daisuke's music in Smash. But I also feel like after Terry, Sol might be a little redundant. They share a lot of similar design traits and even moves (Daisuke did work with SNK before joining ArcSys).

Nominations: Jin Kazama

With the addition of Min Min thanks to ARMS' ensemble cast, I can't help but wonder if potentially anyone Soulcalibur is up for grabs. I know there's been multiple protagonists (Sophitia, Siegfried, Xianghua, etc.), Nightmare's the main villain and mascot, Mitsurugi's the Ryu of the game, Talim's the most popular, etc. I don't know too much about what they can do and how Soulcalibur's mechanics can translate to Smash, but I'd imagine hypothetically anyone could bring something new to the table.

 

[Jomosensual]

Guys, Dee's day is over, any discussion relating to him is off-topic now.

Can we still talk about Bazoomba?

Anyways, onto the day of so(u)ls.

Not much has changed for Sol so I'll just repost what I had from last time. Arms getting a rep doesn't effect much for me since we're probably doubling up on a genre or two in this pass anyways

Sol Badguy
Chance 25 - I think it's a lock that we're getting one more fighting game character in. The genre is just too easy to make characters from. While there's others who I think are more likely than Sol right now, I also think he's not too far back for fighting reps either. He's not super requested but that might not matter if the Kunio spirits are hinting at a rep from there. If that's the case then Sol is the leader of that camp, but I'm not sure if it means anything yet or not. Leaning towards Sol being the more likely rep since he's more requested.

Want 40 - Wouldn't hate the pick. Dont really know much about Sol or GG so I can't go super high and there's others I'd rather get both from the genre and in general. Would be my pick for an Arc character to get in though. Remember thinking he could be fun when I looked into a possible moveset recently too.

Nightmare
Chance 15 - Things are a little complicated here for Nightmare now. Does Heihachi getting killed off help him? Does it just mean Namco is less likely to get another rep at all? Not sure. Leaning towards the latter though. Chance score will stay right where I last had it though. Not sure who the most likely from Namco would be now but I'm not feeling like it's him due to how Namco doesn't push the series as had(or so I've been told)

Want 70 - He'd be a cool pick. I like his design and SC has always been a series I hear about although I don't have a ton of experience with it. There's worse ways to go.


Predictions
Sylux - 20.67%
Porky - 13%

Noms
Riptor x5
John Marston x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

I would make a Kirby joke but i already go beaten to the punch.

Chance: 5%

Soul Calibur is a big franchise no dobut, and it could easily use a rep in this roster. In terms of competition, he only has.....Sophita and Ivy i guess, and if Mai is any indication, neither of them are likely to be even mentioned should Nightmare make it. Even bofre Min-Min's confirmation i would still agree he was the only real choice.

Where he falls apart is in the competition against other Namco Fighters: Sure he is likely to be chosen over Klonoa, Kos-Mos, and the Prince, and Heihachi (the only real one of two threats against Nightmare) is out of the running completely, but there is one character that gets in the way and just seems like the more obious choice in the long run: Lloyd Irving.

Lloyd has the benefit of having seniority in the Smash scene in general due to beign more requested and talked about character in the Smash Speculation since the Brawl days (Nightmare only became a topic of disscussion around Smash Ultimate's time, which could be seen as a Similar situation to Doomguy in that interest for the character only started becoming a thing very late, up to the point it will likely not affect Smash Ultimate's roster choices) to actually appearing in Smash 4 as a Mii Costume while Nightmare was MIA (i mean if ****in Gil can be a costume there's no excuse here) to beign mentioned in a positive light by Sakurai when it came to said Mii Costume, to his moveset beign so easy to made due to the combat style of the Tales series.

Yes, just because you are more popular and requested by the "Smash Bubble" doesn't make you more likely (hey Joker) but look at other Smash reps which prove that at least this scenario should be considered:
1-Mega Man was far more requested and popular in the eyes of the Smash Community, got in Smash 4 over the likes of Resdient Evil and Monster Hunter (far more popular franchises in terms of sales) and Ryu only came in later as DLC.
2-Banjo, who became a major topic of roster disscussion since 2015 got in before Steve in Ultimate. and it's not like Steve was unpopular as some people like to claim (he was talked about FAR more in the pre-June 2019 speculation days than Nightmare has ever been during 4 or Ultimate's entire lifetime)

Those may be 2 examples , but i think is enough for me to demonstrate that the idea of Lloyd making it over Nightmare is not only a possibility, but the more likely one at that.

Yeah, Link was in Soul Calibur 2, but that doesn't mean much in the long run in my opinion. I mean Black Mage crossed over with the Mario Universe TWICE (Mario Hoops 3 on 3 and Mario Sports Mix) and he wasn't the chosen one for Smash. NONE of the Dragon Quest Heroes appeared in Fortune Street (which featured Mario and DQ characters by the way) and Sakurai went with them in Smash as soon as he was given the chance.

Yeah, Lloyd could just come back as a costume like Heihachi, but if that were to happen i wouldn't be surprised if there was no second Namco rep at all.

I just don't see this guy happening, with all the competition (Namco or otherwise) he has.........

Want: 0%

Which is a good thing in my eyes. Good god, after rating 2 of my favorite Smash choices, here comes a guest i couldn't care less about. I gotta say that the Blonde Lover part of me actually would prefer Sophita as unlikely as she is, and i don't even play Soul Calibur!

Yeah he's a villain, but a villain without it's heroic archnemesis in Smash is just boring to me. I wouldn't be requesting K.Rool if DK wasn't here.

Next!

Sun Chico Malo.

Chance: 1%

I don't see this guy making it either. For one, he is not exactly high on the totem poll of popular Smash requests, he doesn't have that magic timing that allowed Joker to get in (because just around the time Joker was announced, Persona 5 became one of the most popular games of the 2010s) and yes, Terry is another "niche" fighting game character.......in the US. SNK is like Football/Soccer, unpopular in the US but pretty damn popular everywhere else (like Mexico and Brazil), more popular than Guilty Gear is in general if im honest.

This doesn't mean that Sol is impossible, he could easily be a dark horse candidate and doesn't have to worry about competition between his Arc Sys betheren (sorry Lee brothers).



......that is what i would say if it wasn't by the Kunio Kun spirit event. Now i will admit i may be beign an hypocrite here. I metioned that Tecmo was represented in Smash via Fatal Frame AT: Yuri. So how is this different?, well, it's because the latest Fatal Frame games are Nintendo exclusive and were even published by Nintendo (Nights of Azure 2's Fatal Frame DLC is exclusive to the Switch even) so Yuri is a unique case in that she basically is a honorary Nintendo character, more so than Banjo is, and is made even more apparent as all the representation of Fatal Frame refers to content that showed up in Nintendo platforms. Also this happaned way back in the base game, so the chanes of Tecmo later wanting a piece of acting for Fighter Pass 2 are more likely because they had more time to consider this.

Kunio Kun's spirit even not only happened after Fighter Pass 1 was likely decided, but also after Fighter Pass 2 likely started beign made. It's like Ubisoft and Bathesda's Mii costumes, i don't see why they would release those Mii Costumes BEFORE their supposed Fighter came into Smash instead of bundling them in since they are owned by the same company. It's like if Capcom's first representation in Smash was the Resident Evil Spirits, if that was the case i wouldn't be expecting Mega Man or any other Capcom character. I feel like if Arc Sys had a character in the works they wouldn't have tossed in a random River City Ransom event before the big showcase.

This woulnd't be a problem in my opinion if Arc Sys had a rep in Smash before the Kunio Spirit event (after all we saw Bomberman's AT in Smash before Simon as a playable character) and yeah we saw Ashley as an Assist Trophy before Wario was shown as a Fighter in Smash 4 (remember that?) but that was the exception and not the norm. The situation presented here with Arc Sys makes me believe this is all they are gonna get at best. Im willing to take the L on this should it be proven otherwise, but im playing it safe here by putting Sol as a................non-safe choice.


ALSO, Due to Min-Min's arrival and the confirmation that Spirits (at least Nintendo ones) are no longer a death sentence, this means the competition is EVEN MORE fierce for these 2 because they also have to compete against not only Third Parties but also certain First Parties to boot, and if those 2 already seemed unlikely in my eyes, well...................yeah.


Want: 0%

Yep, this guy doesn't appeal to me either. For some reason i just can't get into Guilty Gear's weird aesthetics and style. If my Hyoga avatar is any indication is not because "I HATE Anime" like a lot of Smash fans for some reason (well, i do have a stigma towards 2010's animes onward i must admit) but while this is one character i don't hate, it's one i would be more than happy to exclude, just like Reimu or Master Chief. No thanks.

There's only ONE Arc Sys character i would give a damn about (that's not a Spirit) well...........two anyway.

Spoiler

Bimmy BILLY AND JIMMY LEE
SHOW THE DRAGON!

Predictions: (first time i do this)
Sylux and Porky........................yikes, Min-Min just murdered these 2............. i give them 1.5% for both.

Noms:
Jason and Sophia (Blaster Master Zero) X5

 

[MasterWarlord]

I would just like to go into some more detail about the alternate choices for a Soul Calibur character and discuss why it would instead be Nightmare. Really, I just wanted an excuse to talk about Soul Calibur some more.

Spoiler

Ranked in descending order...

Nightmare:
Pros:

• He's on the logo.
• He's the main antagonist of the series with nobody to contest that title.
• He's possessed one of the main protagonists of the series for a long stretch of the story, so he is something of a "protagonist" simultaneously.
• Everybody's goal is to attain Soul Edge, and Nightmare is the embodiment of Soul Edge. He is the embodiment of the main sword of the series. The franchise would be titled Soul Edge if not for that name being copyrighted to something else at the time.
• Fairly high moveset potential and unique in the context of Smash with his soul absorption/charge mechanics, and his gigantic sword that dwarfs even Cloud's. A super heavyweight to truly compete with Ganondorf in Smash.
• Sakurai has passively acknowledged Heihachi as the main representative of Tekken by having him as the only Tekken character represented in Smash. Heihachi is the main villain of his series and is not a hero, but is acknowledged as the most important character by Sakurai. The same could easily apply to Nightmare.
• He has been in every game in the series, even though he is only an alternate costume of Siegfried in the very first game.
• Very popular, he is the third highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5, tied with Siegfried. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.

Cons:

• He's not technically a protagonist/the main character, Sakurai generally favors protagonists.
• Uses a sword.

Siegfried:
Pros:

• Version of Nightmare who is a protagonist, fairly important to the plot.
• Main character of Soul Calibur Legends, a spin off game.
• Very popular, he is the third highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5, tied with Nightmare. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.

Cons:

• Uses a sword.
• Less popular and important than Nightmare.
• A more generic version of Nightmare as far as moveset potential, just a guy with a big sword.
• Was cut in favor of Nightmare during Soul Calibur 2, which is the best selling/most popular game in the series.

Kilik:
Pros:

• Main protagonist of Soul Calibur 1/Soul Calibur 6, which is a retelling of Soul Calibur 1. This is especially relevant since Soul Calibur 6 is the relevant game right now.
• Unique weapon with ranged playstyle.
• Placed highly on the official Soul Calibur popularity poll, although this may be due to fan's desires to see him return with his real weapon rather than be an mimic character like he was in Soul Calibur 5.

Cons:

• Simplistic character outside of his weapon.
• Is not very important outside of Soul Calibur 1/6.

Yoshimitsu:
Pros:

• He is the only character from Soul Calibur who is also in Tekken, letting him represent both series.
• Very popular, fourth highest character on the Soul Calibur popularity poll who was not cut in Soul Calibur 5.
• Fairly unique moveset.
• Has been playable in every mainline Soul Calibur game besides the first one.

Cons:

• Uses a sword.
• Zero story significance.

Mitsurugi:
Pros:

• Very popular, he is the highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game, alongside Cervantes and Voldo.

Cons:

• Extremely generic swordsman.
• Zero story significance or plot relevance in any game.

Astaroth:
Pros:

• He is a favorite character of Namco. He cameos in Pac Man Fever as the sole playable Soul Calibur character over any other Soul Calibur character. He also cameos in Ridge Racer.
• He has been playable in every game except the first one. He was originally cloned off of another character, Rock, but proved so much more popular than him that Rock was removed from future installments.
• He is the only playable villain in Soul Calibur Legends.
• Has the most screen time of any villain in Soul Calibur 6.
• Uses an axe.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.

Talim:
Pros:

• Won the official character popularity poll in a landslide victory. This is due to her and her moveset being cut from Soul Calibur 5 and fans wanting it to return in Soul Calibur 6. Still, she has clearly outperformed Zasalamel, who was in the same situation.
• Fairly unique moveset.

Cons:

• Zero story significance.
• Has not been in many games.

Ivy:
Pros:

• Very unique weapon, sword that transforms into an extendable whip.
• Fairly important in every game she appears.
• Very popular, she is the second highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.

Cons:

• Never been a main character/main villain.
• Smash is for good boys and girls. Sexual appeal is the primary point of her character. Much more direct about it than Bayonetta.

Sophitia:
Pros:

• One of the main protagonists of Soul Blade, the first game.
• Has been fully playable in every game in the series, including spin offs, with the exception of Soul Calibur 5, which is a universally reviled game where her moveset was given to a new character, who is the most hated character in the series.

Cons:

• Very generic sword and shield moveset.
• Not especially important in games other than Soul Blade.

Taki:
Pros:

• One of the main protagonists of Soul Blade, the first game.
• Did very well on the official character popularity poll, but this can be argued as a response to Soul Calibur 5 where she was cut.
• Has been fully playable in every game in the series, including spin offs, with the exception of Soul Calibur 5, which is a universally reviled game where her moveset was given to a new character.

Cons:

• Very generic ninja moveset.
• Smash is for good boys and girls. While not as direct as Ivy, her boobs are still the focal point of her character design and are hard to ignore.
• Not especially important in games other than Soul Blade.

Cervantes:
Pros:

• Main villain of the first game and fairly important in other games.
• Unique dual sword moveset, and is able to fire his swords like guns.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game, alongside Voldo and Mitsurugi.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.

Voldo:
Pros:

• Arguably the most unique moveset.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game, alongside Cervantes and Mitsurugi.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.
• Very little story significance.

Zasalamel:
Pros:

• Did well on the official character popularity poll. This is due to him and his moveset being cut from Soul Calibur 5 and fans wanting it to return in Soul Calibur 6.
• Extremely unique scythe moveset and access to lots of magic.
• Main villain of Soul Calibur 3.

Cons:

• Unimportant to the story outside of Soul Calibur 3.
• Has not been in many games.

 

[Drason]

The Azure Knight: Nightmare
Chance: 30%
One of the more likely candidates from Bandai Namco's roster of characters to make it in. Dude alrealdy has an iconic design to most of the video game community at large and he's a pretty bomb character in his own series too, consistently ranking at the top of popularity polls. His series has had a resurgence in popularity due to 6 and the game is still fresh in everyone's minds. But, the biggest thing that helps his chances is the fact that the most iconic and best-selling game in the franchise had Link as a guest in it. However, as much as I want to fanboy over this guy there's some obvious red flags with this character. The biggest one being the rapid popularity sink from IV to V because of some rather....questionable choices from the developers. After that showing, the series went dormant for more than half a decade only to be suddenly revived by VI. This could symbolize that as a series SoulCalibur isn't a mainstay franchise to Nintendo and thus too much of a risk.
Want: 100%
Dude wields a giant freaking sword with an eyeball on it, want me to go on?.....Ok, but seriously Nightmare is one of those guys I can see either being an overpowered characters with the strength of Ganondorf, the range of Shulk and the speed of Captain Falcon(cause if you've ever played a SoulCalibur game, the dude is ludicrously fast and hard to beat in most of them) or a heavily nerfed character. I want to see either his II, III, or VI moveset included as he has a large variations of moves to chose from ranging from Soul Break, Electrified attacks or the Dark Matter form. He also can double as a hero because of a Siegfried skin and give people the choice of chosing which side to go on.
Sol Badguy
Abstain I know nothing about this dude.
Nom: Yoshimitsu

 

[SharkLord]

I would just like to go into some more detail about the alternate choices for a Soul Calibur character and discuss why it would instead be Nightmare. Really, I just wanted an excuse to talk about Soul Calibur some more.

Spoiler

Ranked in descending order...

Nightmare:
Pros:

• He's on the logo.
• He's the main antagonist of the series with nobody to contest that title.
• He's possessed one of the main protagonists of the series for a long stretch of the story, so he is something of a "protagonist" simultaneously.
• Everybody's goal is to attain Soul Edge, and Nightmare is the embodiment of Soul Edge. He is the embodiment of the main sword of the series. The franchise would be titled Soul Edge if not for that name being copyrighted to something else at the time.
• Fairly high moveset potential and unique in the context of Smash with his soul absorption/charge mechanics, and his gigantic sword that dwarfs even Cloud's. A super heavyweight to truly compete with Ganondorf in Smash.
• Sakurai has passively acknowledged Heihachi as the main representative of Tekken by having him as the only Tekken character represented in Smash. Heihachi is the main villain of his series and is not a hero, but is acknowledged as the most important character by Sakurai. The same could easily apply to Nightmare.
• He has been in every game in the series, even though he is only an alternate costume of Siegfried in the very first game.
• Very popular, he is the second highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5, tied with Siegfried. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.

Cons:

• He's not technically a protagonist/the main character, Sakurai generally favors protagonists.
• Uses a sword.

Siegfried:
Pros:

• Version of Nightmare who is a protagonist, fairly important to the plot.
• Main character of Soul Calibur Legends, a spin off game.
• Very popular, he is the second highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5, tied with Nightmare. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.

Cons:

• Users a sword.
• Less popular and important than Nightmare.
• A more generic version of Nightmare as far as moveset potential, just a guy with a big sword.
• Was cut in favor of Nightmare during Soul Calibur 2, which is the best selling/most popular game in the series.

Kilik:
Pros:

• Main protagonist of Soul Calibur 1/Soul Calibur 6, which is a retelling of Soul Calibur 1. This is especially relevant since Soul Calibur 6 is the relevant game right now.
• Unique weapon with ranged playstyle.
• Placed highly on the official Soul Calibur popularity poll, although this may be due to fan's desires to see him return with his real weapon rather than be an mimic character like he was in Soul Calibur 5.

Cons:

• Simplistic character outside of his weapon.
• Is not very important outside of Soul Calibur 1/6.

Yoshimitsu:
Pros:

• He is the only character from Soul Calibur who is also in Tekken, letting him represent both series.
• Very popular, fourth highest character on the Soul Calibur popularity poll who was not cut in Soul Calibur 5.
• Fairly unique moveset.
• Has been playable in every mainline Soul Calibur game besides the first one.

Cons:

• Uses a sword.
• Zero story significance.

Mitsurugi:
Pros:

• Very popular, he is the highest placing character on the official character popularity poll who wasn't cut/had their moveset cut in Soul Calibur 5. Other top placings can be argued as biased because of this, as people were largely voting for who they wanted to return in Soul Calibur 6.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game in the series, alongside Cervantes and Voldo.

Cons:

• Extremely generic swordsman.
• Zero story significance or plot relevance in any game.

Astaroth:
Pros:

• He is a favorite character of Namco. He cameos in Pac Man Fever as the sole Soul Calibur character over any other Soul Calibur character. He also cameos in Ridge Racer.
• He has been playable in every game except the first one. He was originally cloned off of another character, Rock, but proved so much more popular than him that Rock was removed from future installments.
• He is the only playable villain in Soul Calibur Legends.
• Has the most screen time of any villain in Soul Calibur 6.
• Uses an axe.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.

Talim:
Pros:

• Won the official character popularity poll in a landslide victory. This is due to her and her moveset being cut from Soul Calibur 5 and fans wanting it to return in Soul Calibur 6. Still, she has clearly outperformed Zasalamel, who was in the same situation.
• Fairly unique moveset.

Cons:

• Zero story significance.
• Has not been in many games.

Ivy:
Pros:

• Very unique weapon, sword that transforms into an extendable whip.
• Fairly important in every game she appears.
• One of the most consistently recognizable/popular characters.

Cons:

• Never been a main character/main villain.
• Smash is for good boys and girls. Sexual appeal is the primary point of her character. Much more direct about it than Bayonetta.

Sophitia:
Pros:

• One of the main protagonists of Soul Blade, the first game.
• Has been fully playable in every game in the series, including spin offs, with the exception of Soul Calibur 5, which is a universally reviled game where her moveset was given to a new character, who is the most hated character in the series.

Cons:

• Very generic sword and shield moveset.
• Not especially important in games other than Soul Blade.

Taki:
Pros:

• One of the main protagonists of Soul Blade, the first game.
• Did very well on the official character popularity poll, but this can be argued as a response to Soul Calibur 5 where she was cut.
• Has been fully playable in every game in the series, including spin offs, with the exception of Soul Calibur 5, which is a universally reviled game where her moveset was given to a new character.

Cons:

• Very generic ninja moveset.
• Smash is for good boys and girls. While not as direct as Ivy, her boobs are still the focal point of her character design and are hard to ignore.
• Not especially important in games other than Soul Blade.

Cervantes:
Pros:

• Main villain of the first game and fairly important in other games.
• Unique dual sword moveset, and is able to fire his swords like guns.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game in the series, alongside Voldo and Mitsurugi.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.

Voldo:
Pros:

• Arguably the most unique moveset.
• One of only three characters who has been playable in every single main series game in the series, alongside Cervantes and Mitsurugi.

Cons:

• Not especially popular.
• Very little story significance.

Zasalamel:
Pros:

• Did well on the official character popularity poll. This is due to him and his moveset being cut from Soul Calibur 5 and fans wanting it to return in Soul Calibur 6.
• Extremely unique scythe moveset and access to lots of magic.
• Main villain of Soul Calibur 3.

Cons:

• Unimportant to the story outside of Soul Calibur 3.
• Has not been in many games.

A very comprehensive list, which I commend you for. Still, there's a couple things I'd argue about.
One is the generic moveset portion; As far as I can gather, Sakurai seems to choose the character first, then make the moveset. Plus, Ryu's pretty generic, and he still ended up with one of the most complex movesets in the game. I don't know too much about Soulcalibur, but I'm sure something unique could be created with the mechanics alone.
Second is the lack of plot relevance. Believe it or not, the three fighting game heroes we have actually aren't all that important to the plot. Ryu's just there to get rid of M. Bison at the end, Ken's only really there to be Ryu's rival, and Terry stopped being important after Fatal Fury ended, with Kyo, Iori, and whatever new main character this at the moment taking over in terms of importance. When it comes to fighting games, plot relevancy isn't always important.

 

[MasterWarlord]

A very comprehensive list, which I commend you for. Still, there's a couple things I'd argue about.
One is the generic moveset portion; As far as I can gather, Sakurai seems to choose the character first, then make the moveset. Plus, Ryu's pretty generic, and he still ended up with one of the most complex movesets in the game. I don't know too much about Soulcalibur, but I'm sure something unique could be created with the mechanics alone.
Second is the lack of plot relevance. Believe it or not, the three fighting game heroes we have actually aren't all that important to the plot. Ryu's just there to get rid of M. Bison at the end, Ken's only really there to be Ryu's rival, and Terry stopped being important after Fatal Fury ended, with Kyo, Iori, and whatever new main character this at the moment taking over in terms of importance. When it comes to fighting games, plot relevancy isn't always important.

I'm not going to pretend either of those two things are deciding factors, but there's not exactly much else to go on when we're discussing these guys at the top. Very few characters I brought up aren't popular, and Nightmare himself is still popular, so we need to look at other factors. We also need to take Talim's win on the poll with a grain of salt, since there was an obvious ulterior motive at play.

Generally moveset uniqueness does not matter too much, but I think it's at least worth bringing up for somebody like Mitsurugi when there are so many other choices who are also popular, and there is no super obvious main protagonist to pick, just a main villain.

Here is the poll I keep referencing if you're interested.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm not going to pretend either of those two things are deciding factors, but there's not exactly much else to go on when we're discussing these guys at the top. Very few characters I brought up aren't popular, and Nightmare himself is still popular, so we need to look at other factors. We also need to take Talim's win on the poll with a grain of salt, since there was an obvious ulterior motive at play.

Generally moveset uniqueness does not matter too much, but I think it's at least worth bringing up for somebody like Mitsurugi when there are so many other choices who are also popular, and there is no super obvious main protagonist to pick, just a main villain.

Here is the poll I keep referencing if you're interested.

Yeah, I know the poll. I also know that somehow Patroklos ended up at the bottom of the poll, which is really embarrassing for the main character. I know enough about the series to know that guy is absolutely reviled by all.
While Min Min opens the doors for more varied fighting game characters, I know Nightmare is the most likely character, being the wielder of the central Soul Edge and the is the mascot of Project Soul. That much I know.

 

[MeteoRain]

I abstain entirely on Sol Badguy, I simply don't know him or the Guilty Gear series.

Mr. "Blood, darkness, come unto me!"

Chance: 30%

Tekken is out with the recent Heihachi outfit. Lloyd is probably the frontrunner if there is a Namco fighter. Yet, if Nintendo passes up on Tales of, I could see them placing the SoulCalibur series right behind them. If Lloyd gets Mii'd, I'd double this.

Want: 75%

It kinda sucks it would be another swordfighter, but he'd be pretty awesome one and I did enjoy the series a ton until SCIV. Haven't picked up SCVI yet. I do wonder how much different he'd be between Ike, Cloud, and Ganondorf. I hope they make real good use out of that beefy monster arm he has.

 

[GoodGrief741]

South California

Chance: 11%
Full disclaimer: at this point I think it's Lloyd or nothing for Bamco, and honestly with how they give zero ****s about having characters in Smash I think nothing is the likeliest. Bandai Namco, imo, doesn't see themselves as a videogame publisher like Capcom or Sega, but rather as a licensed game maker like Konami - they make games for others, whether that be tie-ins or work for other developers like Nintendo, and the fact that they have their own IPs isn't part of company culture.

With that said, below Lloyd, I think their next franchises in line are Katamari and Soul Calibur. Tekken is out with Heihachi. Dark Souls is finished, more popular in the West, not homegrown and a bad fit for Smash. I don't see Dig Dug (and Mr. Driller) as DLC, Digimon is better known as an anime, and whatever else there might be isn't even worth considering. Katamari and Soul Calibur being on the same level might be weird as Soul Calibur is obviously a much higher profile and budget franchise, but with how it's been underperforming I think they'll be underplaying it in the years to come, unfortunately.

So, Soul Calibur. Previously I've stated that Nightmare, while not the only possible candidate, was still the clear frontrunner. He's the mascot for the franchise, closely related to its mainsake, on the team logo, always plot relevant, and technically even the main character.

And then Min Min happened, and everything came crumbling down. The mascot? The main character? Doesn't matter. Plot relevance? ARMS doesn't exactly have a plot, but it does have quite the lore, and Min Min's one of the least connected characters. Exposure? Pretty much treated as one in a cast. Other fighters aren't too affected by the impact of Min Min (Scorpion, Heihachi, Kyo, are all still clear frontrunners for their respective franchises), but this really hurts Nightmare. I dunno about his popularity within the series, so that might be his saving grace, but in terms of iconic he's not on the level of a Ryu or a Heihachi. I could see him get skipped over for someone like Ivy or Sophitia who are also pretty iconic, and Ivy's a more interesting character visually and moveset-wise I feel. Or they could go for Siegfried. Or some other out-there choice. Maybe Min Min is an isolated incident and we won't be getting any more bizarre choices, but this is Sakurai, so I'll err on the side of caution.

Want: 75%
Nightmare would be cool, I really like Soul Calibur but honestly I'm not too attached to any of the characters. Anyone would work for me, but I think Nightmare is the best rep for the series.

Rami Malek with fake teeth

Chance: 15%
I don't think anything has changed for this bad guy, like, at all. ArcSys has Spirits, for Kunio, so they're in the game. But they could get nothing. Or something else, like the Lee Bros or Ragna.

Want: 75%
I like Sol. I prefer BlazBlue to Guilty Gear. But Ragna's lame. Gimme Double Dragon.

Noms: ****ing Tidus X5
Sylux prediction: 4.00%
Porky prediction: 6.88%

 

[GoodGrief741]

I gotta say, loved all the discussion that sparked in the last few days about Dee and Dixie. Everyone (I think) behaved and all in all it was a lot of healthy back and forth.

Though, five pages, I pity the poor fool who's gonna have to sift through those to calculate scores.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Dixie Kong/Bandana Dee pre-Nightmare/Sol Badguy

Concept: A person of color x170
Tidus x145
Moogle x140
Nate Adams x130
Alex Mason x125
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116

150 - 101

D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Shuichi Saihara x106

100 - 51

[Rerate] Frisk x95
Red (Angry Birds) x95
[Rerate] Ezio x90
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Proto Man x75
Fulgore x74
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Concept: More ATs as one new item x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x65
Echo: Xion (Sora) x62
The Terrarian x60
Sakura Shinguji x58
Billy Hatcher x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Riptor x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
Gooigi x37
Giygas x35
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Concept: Deltarune content x32
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x30
Urbosa x30
Concept: Returning stages x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
Klonoa x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
[Rerate] Maxwell x20
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x15
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Yoshimitsu x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Alex Mason shoots past The Stretchers and takes fifth place. Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content ventures into the top seven, leaving D.Va lost in its wake. This is I think the first shakeup in the top seven since the fixed schedule started. Don't fall asleep on your laurels!

Billy Hatcher rolls past 50 noms.

Concept: Returning stages, Magolor and Klonoa bust out of the under 25 club.

A new challenger approaches! It's Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep, with 5 noms!

Don't know if my post will be counted or not, 10 minutes late.

Don't worry, posts are still counted up until one hour after the day changes.

 

[fogbadge]

hmm the most famous one off kirby villain. whats that? wrong nightmare? ah the boss from fusion and other M. what? still wrong? oh that nightmare

chance: im gonna go with 40% i can see a soul calibur character happening but im not convinced it would be nightmare. I've never really picked on anything that suggested there ever one "mascot" or main character for the whole series, if anything it changed from game to game. although everyone hated the main character from 5 so that aint happening. i admit i havent played the latest one so im not sure how things are atm. so i would say i can see a SC character happening but its a bit up in there air for who it would be.

want: 50% i do like soul calibur, despite the often daft character designs, but nightmare is not my favourite. hes no kilik. and i dont really play as bad guys, not my thing, so id probably get him for the stage and music but almost never play as him.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

2020
Chance: 25%
Despite being Namco's secondary fighting game series, Soulcalibur does pretty well for itself with having a new game released recently (which was supposed to be at this year's EVO untill.... yeah) and it's no stranger to crossovers. Tekken basically being out of the running would leave the door wide open for SC and drastically increase Nightmare's chances, right? Well not quite actually. It's hard to deny Lloyd or specifically the Tales of series isn't the clear frontrunner when it comes to Bamco reps. Along with that there are numerous other dark horse candidates. Also, with how long it took for the Heihachi costume to return, the possibility of Lloyd just returning as one as well and Bamco still not getting a second character has become slightly bigger. I also feel like Min Min might also be hurting to his chances, since she may allude to more first-party characters and Nintendo might see her as the fighting game rep for FP2 if genre variety is a concern.

Want: 50%
I'm not as weirdly hyped for Nightmare as I was last time, particularly since I still haven't played a SC game yet. I am still a fan of his desing and aesthetic tho. He'd certainly be unique amongst the cast.

Fatguy
Chance: 20%
With those Kunio spirits we know that ArcSys now has involvement in Smash but that can easily amount to nothing. As far as JP devs not repped with a character go, ArcSys might have to compete with Koei and Level 5, both of which are alot more close with Nintendo. And just like with Nightmare, I feel like Min Min affects Sol's chances too. Still, he's definitely the ArcSys frontrunner and worth keeping an eye on.

Want: 35%
I actually bought the OG Guilty Gear on Switch recently. It's okay I guess, tho I feel its mechanics haven't aged well, the literal insta win moves especially. Still, Sol would be pretty fun from what I've played. He's the only character I managed to beat story mode with which was pretty frustrating. To be fair, the only other character I tried it with was Cliff and Sol turned out to be a roadblock I couldn't overcome there. I'm confident some of the later games are miles better and make the series Smash-worthy.

Porky: 5.19% Yall better not bring up his "missing spirit" as a positive
Sylux: 8.65%
Deltarune content x5
Btw GoodGrief741 I've noticed the noms some of us gave to characters on the fixed schedule (Eggman and Captain Toad in my case) haven't been changed/added to other concepts like you said they would. What's up with that?