Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[clearandsweet]

First party Fighter's pass

Big yup from me lemme get - 80% on the chances

This one was decided after the first one's early sales were in. This one was done after they had to haggle with miserly Squenix. This one after they saw how the hype for these characters. It doesn't take a marketing genius to look at upcoming games and be like... wait what if...

Arms had too good of production values and concept to ignore in Smash, I just evolved Kubfu and if Urshifu isn't custom built for Smash, the sky isn't blue. Then Monliftsoft doing something, Paper Mario this year, Camelot been silent 2 long years, and so on. My prediction is one third party character and then some wanted newcomers from Nintendo for the other five.

As for this future? - 100% want

Man I don't want paragomba stack or Pauline or Zerora, but my two favorite Nintendo series are Golden Sun and Advance Wars. I've wanted these forgotten Nintendo franchises in Smash for almost 20 years now. Give me the money, Sakurai. Give me the love, Hiroyuki. Make my dreams come true.

 

[GoodGrief741]

This one was done after they had to haggle with miserly Squenix.

From what we know from interviews and the like, there was no haggling. On the contrary, actually, Sakurai went in hoping for Hero but expecting to get Slime and came out with 4 Heroes.

 

[Sid-cada]

3 More first party fighters

Chance - 55% - The only thing we have going on is prior president, and Spring man being first. I'm inclined to say that Spring Man is a sign of things to come, but that's flimsy enough evidence that I won't hold it against you if you believe otherwise. I have no idea how true that is, but right now I think we are firmly in unknown territory to make any definitive statement.

Want - 75% - I'll admit the first party pass was a major disappointment to me. Hero and Banjo are okay, but not groundbreaking to me, and the others I'm not even going to bother perching. To my mind, the first parties have given me more good apples than bad, and my most wanted is still actually first party, so I'd think I'd be relatively okay.


Nominations

Lip X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise
19.84% Chance - 58.86% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 18.21%

Rex
56.35% Chance - 63.54% Want
First time we rated him he got 5.95% chance and 38.08% want. These scores were kind of a fluke, as people understood the rating to be for Rex solo rather than with Pyra, which tanked both scores. Last time we rated him he got 17.52% chance and 50.95% want. This was pretty recent, after Byleth's reveal. Clearly, the ARMS reveal gave the salvager a new lease on life.
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 55.30% (Plus they managed to predict that there would be double 100s - there were actually two people who gave that rating!)
Rex is now the most likely first party character. Somewhere, Calamitas punches a wall.

Steve
44.40% Chance - 51.86% Want
First time we rated him he got 55.69% chance and 23.89% want. At that point, before we even knew about Joker, Steve was seen as an inevitability, a boogeyman of speculation much like a Gen 8 Pokemon and a Three Houses character. The second time we rated him he got 3.04% chance and 38.17% want. This was after Banjo & Kazooie's reveal, and you can already see people warming up to the idea of him - but with no confirmation of further DLC, he was dead in the water. Last time we rated him he got 33.94% chance and 41.17% want. With more DLC confirmed, his chances were seen as strong again, but at the time many still speculated a possible Master Chief reveal at TGA (remember those days?). As you can see, Steve's history is that of an upward trend in both chance and want. Will history repeat, or will he get his shot at glory this time?
Winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 50.00%

And now, the list

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 92
Delzethin 5
NintenRob 20
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 45
SKX31 10
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5

 

[fogbadge]

miserly Squenix.

SE isnt miserly, you should see the amount of stuff they let level-5 use of that yo-kai watch mobile game

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Louie from Pikmin.

Predict Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable.

Day will end sometime after noon on Friday.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Pikmin mood:

Spoiler: Pikmin Music

 

[fogbadge]

louie eh?

chances: 0% i just dont see us get another pikmin character, sakurai almost put in one last time but left as an alt in favour of a character that appeals to a small part of the fandom, one of his own characters and a character from a series we all think hes obsessed with. i dont see us getting any characters that are echoes or semi clones as dlc and they are what most of the pikmin leaders would probably be.

want: 0% i don't like louie hes done nothing but cause trouble for everyone around him. his first game his causes the company into sever debt and then in three he robs the very people who save him. louie is a selfish little trouble maker whos apparent control over bugs lending itself to a possible smash ability is not enough to make me want him in smash.

nominate nate adams x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Louie

Chance 1 - Think Olimar and sorta Alpha are the only Pikimin characters that will be playable in this game. Pikimin 4 status seems to be up in the air right now with no info on it in a really long time and there's more likely 1st party picks from both a fan request standpoint and a marketing stand point. I'd be pretty surprised if they went for Pikmin over Rex, Akira,Gen 8, BOTW in some fashion, etc.

Want 0 - I'd rather see Alph get promoted. He should really at least be an echo fighter right now. Outside of him I dont have any real interest in more Pikmin chracters getting in.

Predictions
Pokeball promotions - .5

Noms
Stretchers x5

 

[Lyncario]

The guy from Pikmin who is not Olimar or Alph
Chance: 0.5%
I'm pretty that this is too generous, but hey, who knows. Pikmin 3 remastered rumors exist, I guess.

Want: 0.5%
Not a Pimin fan, and I don't like to play or fight Olimar.

AT who gets special treatments because it's Pokemon: 0.5%

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Louie. Mainly because I'd prefer Alph as our Olimar Echo.

Poké Ball promotion: 30%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[Ninjaed]

Louie - double 0

Like Lyncario aptly put it, "The guy from Pikmin who is not Olimar or Alph". If we're getting another Pikmin rep, it'd be Alph... but Pikmin is already well represented enough in Smash. Olimar's concept is top notch now that it's been nerfed from its Brawl days. It's not as obnoxious since the Pikmins are limited in number you can have at once, so hard camping is harder. But balancing aside, you have most of what makes Pikmin... Pikmin. You've got the little critters, you can whistle them, order them around, sacrifice them (Olimar is such a sicko) while Olimar himself stays as safe as possible.

Still, while the need for a 2nd rep isn't there, it never stopped Smash from introducing new reps so it's not enough of an argument. And that's when Lyncario's quote strikes back. There's little demand for Louie. Alph would be the next one to get in, but he is a skin. Alph's chances being pretty much 0 means Louie's are even lower, hence the score. As for want... like I said, Olimar reps Pikmin just fine. You could come up with a decent moveset covering the rest for Alph but I'd rather have Smash explore new territory, not retreat a beaten path.

Predictions: poké ball promotion - 6%
Nominations: concept: new ATs as one new item x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sari be looking like Dry Bones right now. Ah yeah, I need to make a joke relating to the character..ummm.....Pikmin 4 is coming out sometime soon right?

Abstain. I'm just not interested in rating this character and I'm not that knowledgeable about Pikmin. Though I will say I don't think another Pikmin character is likely because of all the big fish Nintendo has yet to catch.

Prediction: Pokemon Promotion - 8%

Noms: Ezio x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Louie, king of bugs
Chance: 0.1%
Pikmin isn't really in a good place at the moment. The series getting another character has to largely hinge on the future of franchise which is really uncertain as of right now with Pikmin 4 being vaporware and the rumoured Pikmin 3 port already having its character in tho only as an alt. I guess Louie would be our only option, you know, as long as Pikmin 4 doesn't have some completely new protagonist. In any case, I doubt Nintendo would prioritize Pikmin over many other series first or third-parties. He's really echo material at best but he doesn't seem to have an ounce of popularity to my knowledge. I do remember some /v/ anon during base game speculation forcing him with an original moveset riding a Dweefil and commanding bugs but that especially won't happen. Not for Louie of all people.

Want: 1%
While I do like Pikmin, I'm pretty content with the representation it already has. There are barely any problems I have with it. I guess I would've preferred Alph being an echo but in terms of original movesets, I don't think the series needs more. Louie is basically just a gluttonous version of Olimar and I do not have much attachment to that. Echo or original, there are many characters I think deserve the invite more.

Pokeball Pokémon becomes playable: 1.43%
Dr. Eggman x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

*insert the lyrics to Louie Louie*

Chance: 2%
I don't really see it, Pikmin is not as big of an attention grabber as other Nintendo series. Maybe if Pikmin 4 really materializes down the line soon, he'd have a shot.

Want: 100%
I assume that everyone who's calling him "the other Pikmin guy" hasn't played Pikmin. This guy isn't Olimar clone material, he'd be a freaking beast summoner. With Louie you get a guy who can fight using all of the cool Pikmin monsters. Louie's pretty much the closest thing to a human villain in Pikmin, he's a selfish, cowardly dunce, yet he's also incredibly relatable. I get it, Pikmin is more of a niche thing and people would rather get characters from elsewhere, but I'd be delighted to see more of that universe.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Pokéball prediction: huh, this is a weird one. I'll go with 3.08%

 

[Jomosensual]

*insert the lyrics to Louie Louie*

Chance: 2%
I don't really see it, Pikmin is not as big of an attention grabber as other Nintendo series. Maybe if Pikmin 4 really materializes down the line soon, he'd have a shot.

Want: 100%
I assume that everyone who's calling him "the other Pikmin guy" hasn't played Pikmin. This guy isn't Olimar clone material, he'd be a freaking beast summoner. With Louie you get a guy who can fight using all of the cool Pikmin monsters. Louie's pretty much the closest thing to a human villain in Pikmin, he's a selfish, cowardly dunce, yet he's also incredibly relatable. I get it, Pikmin is more of a niche thing and people would rather get characters from elsewhere, but I'd be delighted to see more of that universe.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Pokéball prediction: huh, this is a weird one. I'll go with 3.08%

Well, ok then. My want for Louie just went up because that sounds dope as hell

 

[jamesster445]

Louie

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

I have no strong feelings one way or the other. But I wouldn't mind another Pikmin character, I did think Alph was robbed.

Nominations: Diablo

 

[warpenguin55]

Louie:
Chance: 0%
Of all the first party franchises we have in the game, Pikmin is near the bottom in terms of rep likelihood. I mean, we had Alph right there to upgrade into an echo fighter, and we didn't even get him. So Louie is pretty much dead in the water.


Want: 80%
Originally, I was going to say something like "we don't need another Olimar" giving him a 0% want. Then GoodGrief741 dropped the bombshell that this guy is a ****ING BEAST SUMMONER. A summoner type character is something we don't have in Smash(Pokemon Trainer doesn't count, you can't hit them). When done right, summoners are some of my favorite characters to play. V from DMC 5 and Yorick from League of Legends jump to mind. I always like having characters around that make you have to adopt a different play style, and summoners tend to do that very if done right. Sometimes, I just want to sit back and command my army. I have no clue if a summoner character is a good idea for a Smash character or how it would work, but count me in.

So, Louie...

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[Sari]

Louie

Chance: 0.1%
The Pikmin series has been dormant for a while and is not a series I see getting priority when it comes to another rep. Even if Pikmin 4 got properly revealed soon, I don't really see Nintendo rushing for a promotional pick when they have other big first party picks to choose from.

Want: Abstain
Never played Pikmin so I'll abstain.

Pokeball promotion chance prediction: 2.00%

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party pre-Louie

Dr. Eggman x121
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x115
[Rerate] Lip x115
Meowth x110
D.Va x110
The Stretchers x110
[Rerate] Kratos x105

100 - 51

Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
Moogle x90
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x86
Nate Adams x85
Tidus x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Alex Mason x80
Proto Man x75
Red (Angry Birds) x75
Concept: A person of color x75
Fulgore x74
[Rerate] Frisk x65
Shuichi Saihara x65
Boss: Ender Dragon x61
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x45
[Rerate] Captain Toad x45
[Rerate] Heavy x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x41
Echo: Xion (Sora) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x37
Stage: Bowser's Castle x35
Sakura Shinguji x35
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x34
Gooigi x32
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Diablo (Diablo) x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
[Rerate] Nightmare x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Ezio x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Jin Sakai x20
Concept: More ATs as one new item x20
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
[Rerate] Quote x10
Boss: Rayquaza x9
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
John Marston x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
Billy Hatcher x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo (Olimar) x1

Concept: Upgraded Spirit passes Meowth and takes second place. Lip pops past Kratos and Meowth to tie with Upgraded Spirit. D.Va and The Stretchers climb past Kratos and tie with Meowth for fourth place.

Concept: Dark Souls rep and Ezio escape from the under 25 club.

Your new challengers for today are Billy Hatcher and a rerate of Cadence, both with 5 noms.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Are we really sure Louie would be a "beast summoner"? In Pikmin 2 he just played exactly like Olimar and I don't think there's any confirmation he was actually commanding the final boss of that game. Granted, I didn't play much of 3 so perhaps it's different there. But I imagine if Sakurai/Nintendo had to choose between making him such a summoner or just a simple Olimar clone I think they'd go for the one that takes up less development time.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Are we really sure Louie would be a "beast summoner"? In Pikmin 2 he just played exactly like Olimar and I don't think there's any confirmation he was actually commanding the final boss of that game. Granted, I didn't play much of 3 so perhaps it's different there. But I imagine if Sakurai/Nintendo had to choose between making him such a summoner or just a simple Olimar clone I think they'd go for the one that takes up less development time.

It's left to be somewhat ambiguous, but mostly because Olimar thinks it's crazy. His backstory describes how he learned to play with bugs, he gets called "the King of Bugs", and the ship computer outright says he had hijacked the Titan Dweevil's brain. Given his other villainous actions, I'd say it was definitely the intent.

Could he be made into a simple clone? Sure, that's definitely in the realm of possibility. But he does have the potential to be more than that, and given how he aren't getting clones for DLC, on the small chance he gets in, he'll probably be fighting as a summoner.

 

[amageish]

Louie

Chance: 2%. Man, Pikmin's had a rough deal lately. Pikmin 4 has been "close to completion" for, uh, 5 years. Pikmin 3 is one o the few Wii U games that still hasn't been ported to Switch. The latest release was an 3DS platformer generally regarded as underwhelming. In spite of the addition of Echo Fighters in Ultimate, Alph is still stuck as an alt. Could this be a chance for the franchise to bounce back?

Um. Probably not, honestly. Pikmin needs a comeback and I trust it'll get one soon enough. Do I see it coming with a Smash character? Well... It's possible? I guess it depends on how deluxe Pikmin 3 Deluxe ends up being and if they consider it worth highlighting. The treatment of Alph does leave me slightly worried, but maybe it's left doors open for future unique Pikmin reps more then it reflects a disinterest in giving Pikmin characters unique movesets (if that makes sense). It's hard to say, but the idea of continued Pikmin representation does seem like a potential dark horse among first parties and Louie is probably their best bet lore-wise.

Want: 70%. I mean, his powers are slightly ambiguous (insofar as I am familiar with him), but I trust he'd have a fun moveset in Smash. I'd also be down to give Pikmin more representation.

Nominations: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Well. Full points for being a unique premise in the crowded field of PokeRatings. 3%.

 

[fogbadge]

he's also incredibly relatable.

really? you cook monsters too

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know much about Pikmin.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[BowserKing]

Louie

Chance: 5%. He has some uniqueness, due to being from Pikmin (and him being an antagonist). But he is also a spirit (which you cannot fight, at least I can remember), which would bring him lower. Also, I'm pretty sure that Alph being an echo of Olimar is more likely to be the next Pikmin character.

Want: 70%. Louie would be a fun character to play as, and he could use some enemies from Pikmin as a part of his moveset. I also wonder how he would do against Piranha Plant or Pikachu. Overall, he would be a fun choice, and I'll be glad that Pikmin gets another rep.

Prediction: Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion (10%)

Noms: 2 for Boss: Rayquaza and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

 

[GoodGrief741]

He is the closest thing to a villain in a game where the deadly forces of nature is the primary antagonist, but I don't see him getting priority over a player character, honestly...

Well, Louie's a player character too. The man's the whole package!

really? you cook monsters too

The monster hunter lifestyle isn't an easy one.

 

[fogbadge]

But he is also a spirit (which you cannot fight)

half the forum has been fighting it for a year and a half

The monster hunter lifestyle isn't an easy one.

so i hear

 

[Calamitas]

Louie? Gee.

Chance: 1%
Mmyeah, not really seeing this happening. Pikmin has been on the backburner for Nintendo for quite a while now. Pikmin 4 has been "near completion" for years now, and the Pikmin 3 port just keeps getting rumoured about, with no concrete announcement for it in sight. And while of course, these things don't really have to mean anything for Smash, I don't think they're helping, either. By contrast, Fire Emblem Three Houses was a recent and pretty big game, while ARMS is a new IP, so already both of them are in a better position than this series was.

Want: 25%
Eh, I wouldn't be against it. Not really too familiar with Pikmin as a series on a personal level, but I wouldn't be against it getting another unique fighter.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5

Predicting a Poké Ball promotion to get around 13.88%.

56.35% Chance - 63.54% Want
First time we rated him he got 5.95% chance and 38.08% want. These scores were kind of a fluke, as people understood the rating to be for Rex solo rather than with Pyra, which tanked both scores. Last time we rated him he got 17.52% chance and 50.95% want. This was pretty recent, after Byleth's reveal. Clearly, the ARMS reveal gave the salvager a new lease on life.
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 55.30% (Plus they managed to predict that there would be double 100s - there were actually two people who gave that rating!)
Rex is now the most likely first party character. Somewhere, Calamitas punches a wall.

It's more like this, really.

Spoiler

Regardless, the silver lining is that I'll be having a lot of schadenfreude if my rating on this turns out to be true. . .[/spoiler]

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain
nominatinons: shuichi saihara x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

It's left to be somewhat ambiguous, but mostly because Olimar thinks it's crazy. His backstory describes how he learned to play with bugs, he gets called "the King of Bugs", and the ship computer outright says he had hijacked the Titan Dweevil's brain. Given his other villainous actions, I'd say it was definitely the intent.

This could easily be left up to interpretation, though. While he's definitely bug-like in his behavior, even after the Titan Dweevil he makes no further attempts to harm Olimar at all. He even acts as a semi voice of reason in Pikmin 3 as Olimar starts going crazy from frustration, trying to prevent him from going into the Formidable Oak that ended up in Olimar's capture. Both of them were stir-crazy from the President's cost-cutting after a failed business venture, along with his constant demands, but I don't think either of them had an ill-intent. After all that had happened, they just needed a break.

While this doesn't completely excuse his theft of the Koppaite's juice supply (along with Captain Charlie's rubber duckie), he did mistake their rescue of him as kidnapping and was doing what he could to survive. Remember that the ship from Pikmin 2 was totaled, and Olimar and Louie were pretty much stranded.

Keep in mind that this same ship constantly exaggerates things in its' sales pitches, so it's not exactly the most reliable source of information. For all we know, "King of Bugs" could've just been Louie trying to sound impressive in front of his coworkers.

Overall, while Louie DID do some awful things, I wouldn't consider him a villain at all.


Louie, King of Bugs

Chance: 5% - As much of a Pikmin fan as I am, I must say with a heavy heart that the series isn't in a goos spot right now. While its' most recent game, the spinoff Hay! Pikmin, got some representation in the form of four songs and a couple of spirits, Pikmin 4 is still completely left in the dark (though if we've learned anything from Pikmin 3, it's that if we give it time, it will eventually come). It also had little fan demand and is often made fun of by the Smash fanbase. With only six spots left, there's a lot of heavy first party competition, so I really can't see Louie being high priority.

However, there are rumors of a Pikmin 3 Deluxe, and Louie was in the game, so if they wanted to promote it (especially since there's little else this year. Remember, they promoted Clubhouse Games of all things), they could very well add Louie to the game, whether he be an Olimar semiclone or his own thing. Plus Pikmin has plenty of content that could easily make up a challenger pack, and even if Louie is a semiclone, there's plenty of Pikmin 2 specific mechanics they could add to him such as the spicy and bitter sprays. I know a lot of people would predict a summoner moveset representing the series' vast bestiary (which more than doubled in Pikmin 2, Louie's debut game) but aside from potentially a Swooping/Bumbling Snitchbug recovery, it probably wont happen. Even if Louie was speculated to be controlling the Titan Dweevil (it'd make a fantastic final smash if they don't re-use Olimar's), he still battles against all of these creatures, along with making complex recipes for cooking them into delicious meals, so it'd be a little odd, as cool as it would be. Sakurai likes to stay as true as possible to how a character plays in their own game, and Louie's no summoner in Pikmin 2 or 3.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Pikmin franchise is Miyamoto's passion project, so he could get Louie in as a special request. ARMS was a special request from Nintendo, and remember that a Miyamoto request was one of the factors that got us Pac Man instead of Heihachi.


Want: 100%++ - By far my most wanted first party character, and my favorite character in the series, I would be ecstatic if Louie made the roster! Pikmin deserves a second rep, especially given how much it is ignored by Smash developers. I know a lot of people would just say to make Alph an echo, but Louie is overall more significant to the franchise, and to the contrary of what people say, Pikmin does not have very good or balanced representation at all. Pikmin 1 has a stage, character, and a decent amount of music (though admittingly, Distant Planet uses Awakening Wood's backdrop despite more than likely being intended to be Pikmin 1's Forest of Hope), and plenty of spirits. Pikmin 3 has the same, a half character, a decent music selection, and plenty of spirits.

On a side note, Pikmin really needs more music in Smash. In fact, the series has SEVERAL battle tracks, all of which Smash ignores for some reason.

Pikmin 2, meanwhile, only has a song and a couple of spirits, despite being considered the best in the franchise by most fans. The one upside to this, however, is that there is a TON of content that could make up a fantastic challenger pack!

Stage: Treasure Caverns

One of the big selling points of Pikmin 2 is the spelunking in randomly-generated caves with many sublevels, which greatly extends the playtime of the game in a fun way, and adds a lot of unique areas to explore. This stage would embody what Pikmin 2 contributes to the series, and would start on the surface (with a brief glimpse of one of Pikmin 2's four overworld areas: Awakening Wood, Perplexing Pool, Valley of Repose, and Wistful Wild), before descending into the cave. It would be a transforming stage akin to Castle Seige, and every few minutes the cave would transport the characters to a different sublevel. The sublevels would come in various styles pulled straight from the game, and would each contain different creatures to serve as hazards, a fantastic way to represent the diverse wildlife of the Pikmin franchise (in contrast to the existing stages, which use primarily just the basic Red Bulborb and in Garden of Hope's case, the Peckish Aristacrab.) Much like most assist trophies, all creatures can be damaged and destroyed by fighters.

Dirt: The most basic sublevel, has little in the way of pits and dangers. Sheargrubs will occasionally pop up from the floor, and Creeping Crysanthemums will occasionally walk into the foreground to take a bite out of the fighters. There's also the chance of Armored Cannon Beetle Larvae appearing in the background, both the normal and decorated varieties. They fire boulders into the foreground, the ones from the decorated bettles curving towards any character wearing metal.

Concrete with Water: Wogpoles occasionally fall from above to act as small, bouncing obstacles, with both varieties of Wollywogs occasionally jumping in from the background to try and land on the fighters. Their attacks temporarily bury fighters akin to Donkey Kong's Side B, along with causing some damage.

Tile Lands: Hermit Crawmads and Jellyfloats are the order of the day! The Jellyfloats will attempt to suck up fighters and carry them off screen, and fighters can resist if trapped. Hermit Crawmads will watch for grounded fighters and occasionally lunge out at them to damage them.

Graphite Gulch: Metal platforms above a bottomless pit, electricity and explosions are common. Gatling Groinks fire from the background, while anode beetles appear occasionally to send electric blasts. Careening Dirigibugs will appear occasionally and drop bomb rocks onto the stage. These are the size of Electrode and can be picked up and thrown by fighters.

Grassy Yards: Representing the bizzare yard-esque cavern sublevels, Orange Bulborbs can be encountered here, and will wake easily if the fighters make too much noise. Cloaking Burrow-nits will occasionally appear as well to try and take a stab at the fighters.

There's also several other sublevel types like Snow and Toybox, but this should get the idea across! A super fun and varied stage that really shows off some of the cool elements of the franchise, along with being very faithful to Pikmin 2!


Music:

Pikmin 2 is VERY lacking in musical representation, and this would be a good opportunity to add some of the battle tracks mentioned earlier, along with a general balance to the series' music selection! Any of these examples can be straight rips or remixes, but these would be some great choices for the game. And it's all first party, so they can include a lot!

Louie's Victory Theme: End of Day (Great) - Pikmin 2

Wistful Wild
Piklopedia
Awakening Wood
Boss Battle (Pikmin 2) (The music changes dynamically based on the boss' activity)
Graphite Gulch
Perplexing Pool
Bulblax Kingdom
Shower Room
Giant Breadbug
Waterwraith Attack (Could be a remix, mixed with Waterwraith's Pathetic Escape)
Titan Dweevil
Got Key!
Hot House
Dweevil's Dugout
Tropical Wilds
Plasm Wraith


Spirits:

Pikmin 2 has the least spirits of the three main-series entries but generally fares better than the other departments. Still, there's so much in Pikmin 2 to pull from, and would be another way to represent all of the cool creatures it adds!

President of the Hocotate Freight - Honestly surprised this spirit isn't in the game already. He's a major character in Pikmin 2, has plenty of official art to pull from, and is even playable! He's the only one of the series' six captains to not have a spirit in the base game.

Gatling Groink - Opponent is Orange Snake on a static Graphite Gulch (Treasure Caverns). Explosives spawn more often and Snake stars with a back shield. Enemy prefers Up B, and said Up B would have increased horizontal movement (emulates the projectile behavior of the Gatling Groink, plus semi-emulates the protective windshield it has.

Titan Dweevil - Opponent is Giant Louie on a static Tile Lands (Treasure Caverns) with hazards disabled. Enemy starts with a final smash and charges them quickly.

Giant Breadbug - Opponent is Big Brown King K. Rool, enemy is attracted to items but avoids attacking the player. Enemy can only be damaged by items. Food spawns frequently and enemy has increased healing from food.

Waterwraith - Opponent is Big Light Blue Inkling on Static Concrete with Water (Treasure Caverns). The enemy will constantly chase the player and will only use Side Special. Pow Blocks spawn after a minute. Enemy stays stunned for 30 seconds and can only be damaged when stunned.

Segmented Crawbster - Opponent is Big Sonic, the enemy loves Side Specials. Enemy starts with a Death's Scythe.

Ranging Bloyster - opponent is Big Pink Yoshi on static Tile Lands (Treasure Caverns). Enemy prefers to use its' neutral special.

Man-At-Legs - Opponent is Giant Samus static Graphite Gulch (Treasure Caverns). Enemy loves all specials and beam-based moves do extra damage. Enemy starts with a Super Scope.

Pileated Snagret - Opponent is Green Giant Falco on Garden of Hope. Pitfalls spawn frequently, along with hostile Burrowing Snagret assist trophies.

Fiery Bulblax - Opponent is Orange King K. Rool on Distant Planet. Opponent is constantly under the effects of the Super Spicy Curry.


And there we have it, an entire challenger pack based around Louie and Pikmin 2 as a whole! While this could all very well be a pipe dream, this would perfectly round out the representation for the Pikmin franchise and would make a lot of fans of the series very happy! Furthermore, I hope this shows the community just how much Pikmin has to offer, especially due to common stereotypes like ("Oh just a funny space man with plants" or "lol environmental noises"). There is so much to enjoy about this franchise if one just gives it a try! (anime-esque series like Persona aren't the only ones who are allowed to say this). In fact, I hope this helps the series' reputation with the community as a whole! When it comes to niche Nintendo franchises, it doesn't have the Earthbound popularity or the F-Zero sympathy, it's just in a kind of middle ground that people vent on. I know a lot of people want Porky, but I believe that Pikmin should get a second rep before Earthbound gets a third (especially since it has nearly double the representation Pikmin has), So I hope this shows people the merits of the franchise, and I hope it inspires some of you guys to give it a try!


Nominations:
Austin the Butler x5

Predictions:
Pokeball Pokemon promotion - 1.54%

 

[amageish]

Well, Louie's a player character too. The man's the whole package!

*facepalms* Right, Pikmin 2 does exist! I was just thinking of his role in 3... Whoops! I'll edit my rating.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Louie: 3%

Olimar/Alph covers the main grounds of Pikmin pretty well, and with how few games it has and how inactive of a franchise it is, I really can't see Pikmin getting priority over any third parties or most of Nintendo's other first party franchises.

It's not impossible, but it's pretty damn unlikely.

Want: 60%

I adore Pikmin, and Pikmin 2 in particular is one of my favorite games of all time. It was one of the games I actually got really emotionally invested in as a kid, and I liked Louie's character a lot. Years later, I still appreciate the character (as much mystery as there is surrounding him) and found myself getting plenty of laughs out of his newly fleshed-out mischievous personality in Pikmin 3. If Louie got into Smash Ultimate, I wouldn't complain, be it as an Olimar clone or Echo, or even as a more unique "beast/monster summoner"-type character. Heck, I'd be downright hyped for him in the latter case. Either way, I'd like to see the Pikmin franchise get some more love.

Pokeball Pokemon promotion prediction: 10.12%

Nominations: The Heavy x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Louie

Chance - 0.05% - Pikmin has been mysteriously inactive sense 3. Pikmin 4 is practicably another Half-Life 3 for Pikmin fans at this point. There isn't much outcry for another Pikmin representative, and for Louie in particular. I don't see anything positive for him.

Want - 45% - I've often believed that a Pikmin wildlife representative would be interesting. That said, I would rather have the wildlife itself rather than Louie pilot it, as he feels like an unnecessary middle man, focusing on one big creature than tones of smaller creatures. I'd probably get over it eventually if that were the case, but I'd still feel slightly disappointed at first due to him not quite being what I wanted.


Nominations

Lip x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Feels like we're getting close to a reveal

 

[fogbadge]

am i the only one to have played pikmin who doesnt like louie?

 

[NintenRob]

Louie
Chance 1%
Want 10%

I just don't see it, Pikmin is not a franchise I see getting a character, especially as DLC.
His only chance is if they do some stand alone dlc for echoes and he's one.
As for the beast master moveset, I don't really see it, I know it's something he's implied to do but when you actually play as him, he's just a regular Pikmin captain.
I'm not against the idea though, there's just plenty of other choices I'd prefer.


Nominate person of colour x5

Predictions Pokeball upgrade 4%

 

[Sari]

35 minute presentation from Sakurai, will be June 22nd at 11 PM (Japan time) https://t.co/OvE2o54aDU

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) June 19, 2020

Can't wait to get stretchy on Monday.

 

[chocolatejr9]

35 minute presentation from Sakurai, will be June 22nd at 11 PM (Japan time) https://t.co/OvE2o54aDU

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) June 19, 2020

Can't wait to get stretchy on Monday.

When do we activate the Prediction Protocal?

 

[Sari]

When do we activate the Prediction Protocal?

Louie's day will end tonight followed by the Pokeball rating since there's still a large gap from now to Monday. We'll probably do predictions on Sunday.

Oh yeah also:

There will be no further new fighter reveals other than a fighter from ARMS in this livestream.

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) June 19, 2020

Looks like we'll have to wait until later for FP7 news.

 

[Jomosensual]

Louie's day will end tonight followed by the Pokeball rating since there's still a large gap from now to Monday. We'll probably do predictions on Monday.

Do you mean Sunday for predictions? Monday is when the character is announced