Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

Shantae

Chance: 10% - I do think base spirits have an effect on a character's chances (but doesn't outright deconfirm), but nonetheless, I think Shantae could definitely happen. Alongside Quote, she's basically the frontrunner for an indie rep. Her games have been financially successful, she has continued relevance with the upcoming Seven Sirens, and a longstanding history with Nintendo that would show some appeal for Sakurai. If anything, her spirit could be a good thing, as it shows that the character is on Nintendo's minds. Combine that with quite heavy popularity and you have got yourself a character with some solid chances!

The big problem though, is that we don't know if indies are on the table at all. We haven't had a playable indie rep and the closest we've gotten was a pair of Mii costumes (something that wouldn't work well for Shantae unless they made them open face rather than Sans-style) in the form of Sans and Cuphead (indies that started their relationship with Nintendo on the Switch) and Assist Trophy Shovel Knight (started his relationship on the Wii U). She, along with Quote, would be the next step up, but at this point I'm just theory crafting. It all comes down to whether or not we get an indie rep.

Want: 40% - I have little experience with her games, but there is a big reason why I'd be happy to see her in, which is indie Legacy. If we're going to get an indie rep, I want to see an indie with legacy be the first one. Shantae is one of those characters with legacy, and even with the hiatus she recieved for awhile I think she's earned it and would make a lot of people happy. The moveset potential is there, too! She could be fun to use with her transforming abilities, and if we end up not getting Dixie then she'd be a great choice for a character that attacks via ponytail!


Bomberman

Chance: 2% - Bomberman's an assist trophy, first and foremost. Currently (aside from a very notable exception which Nintendo is very VERY much aware of), I don't see any assists being promoted. Furthermore, fan demand is the main driving force behind Bomberman. His last entry in the series was in 2017 (on the Switch!) after a long hiatus, and hasn't received any news of new entries since then. Despite his ongoing legacy and many merchandising adaptations (including an anime and manga, interestingly), he's in a similar position to Rayman where he's lost a lot of steam post-revival. Still, Konami was willing to include him as an assist trophy so they do still care about him, but I don't know if it would be enough, especially since Konami hasn't gotten a DLC rep yet. And with several big legacy Konami characters as competition, Bomberman's got a lot of hoops to jump through.

Want: 30% - I have no experience with the Bomberman games outside of some music, but I think he's a novel and fun character who's more than earned his spot on the roster! He's got a good variety of entries on Nintendo systems and I think a bomb-based moveset would be a super fun idea!


Shovel Knight

Chance: 5% - Shovel Knight is a critically acclaimed indie that has done exceptionally financially, along with keeping continued relevance through character-based DLCs and general word of mouth. He's also the first indie to get an Amiibo, and was actually the first Amiibo not commissioned by Nintendo themselves back in the day, which is honestly a huge deal! Combine that with Nintendo publishing Shovel Knight in Japan and you've got a series that Nintendo has developed a lot of faith in. This more than likely contributed to Shovel Knight's appearance as an assist trophy in 4, which returned in Ultimate. As an overall very quality game, I think he's definitely got a bit shot at a roster spot.

Though he has a couple of hoops to jump through. Both characters previously mentioned had a big obstacle that stands in their way. Unfortunately, Shovel Knight has both. We don't know if indies are on the table (in fact, as a closed-helmet knight, Shovel Knight is in prime territory for a Sans-style costume), and he's already an assist trophy, so at this point in time I don't see him as likely (Smash 6 is a different story). There's also the issue of his popularity in Japan. he hasn't done particularly well there, so while Nintendo may have faith in the series, there might not be enough to make Shovel Knight a DLC character.

Still, I think Shovel Knight's in a better spot than most indies, and he could very well surprise us!

Want: 30% - I've only played a small part of Shovel Knight while at a friend's house, but I think he'd make for a very novel character! a shovel is certainly a unique weapon, and he (or Cranky Kong) would be the closest we could have to having Scrooge McDuck playable in the game.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Ameterasu - 20.46%
Monster Hunter - 14.93%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Shantae:

Chance: 20%
I think Base Game spirits at least have some chance of promotion, and the odds are certainly higher than DLC Spirits and Assist Trophies in my view. Shantae is also one of the highly requested characters and is one of the few 3rd Party spirit series to get multiple spirits in the base game.

Want: 100%
I liked playing her games and she has a history with Nintendo. I think she'd be a great pick for her ponytail gameplay.

Bomberman:

Chance: 5%
Assist Trophies have a very small chance in my view and if they picked one to promote it'd probably be Waluigi. I don't see his odds looking good in my view.

Want: 80%
I do feel bad for his fans when Castlevania got two characters and Bomberman got only an Assist, despite the fact that the two were generally side by side in terms of Konami speculation. I'd be fine with him, he'd fit right in with the other man characters like .

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 5%
Same as Bomberman, if they picked an AT to promote it'd be Waluigi. Again, I don't see his odds looking good.

Want: 80%
Shovel Knight is a nice game and I like the character well enough. Not at the top of my list but I wouldn't mind him.

Noms: Terra Branford x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Shantae
Chance 10 - An indie character, and Nintendo has made it fairly obvious they dont want to add any more indie characters into the game right now. That's a pretty big hurtle to overcome, and while I think Shantae is someone who could get passed this I also think its just more likely they dont add any indie reps to the game this time around.

Want 0 - I don't really understand the appeal of this character personally. There's a lot more I'd rather have first from both indies and overall in gaming.


Bomberman
Chance 0 - An AT that's not Waluigi, Issac, or Shadow. Rough going there. I have very little doubt that Bomberman will be anything other than an AT in this round of DLC.

Want 0 - Not all that interested in Bomberman really. There's others I'd rather get first and better upgrade picks out there for Nintendo to choose.


Shovel Knight
Chance 10 - I think that if we do get a character from the indies it might be Shovel Knight. The issue is that there's other picks that would more ideal for an AT upgrade that I mentioned above and the fact that he's still an indie. And like I said above, I cant see indies happening this time around.

Want 20 - Probably one of the best indie picks out there. There's other indie picks I'd rather get first though and I also dont have much of a connection to the character.

Predictions
Ammy - 15%
Monster Hunter - 4%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Someone
Chance:10%: IMO a decently likely indie rep. Sure, she's a spirit, but they don't deconfirm. However, the Knight, Freddy, Quote, and Reimu are all far more likely.
Want:90%: I like the games, She could have an interesting moveset. Also there's some good music in those games.

Not Snake
Chance: 0.1%: He could happen, but honestly I don't see it happening until FP2. Unlike Skull Kid, Waluigi, Shovel Knight, and especially Isaac, he doesn't have a ton of fan demand.
Want:100%: I love the Bomberman series, and I would love to see what Sakurai would do with him. Also, more SSF2 characters is always a plus.

OUR LORD AND SAVIOUR
Chance: 5%: The assist that is actually is pretty likely. He's popular, has a lot of moveset potential, and could provide a lot to the game.
Want: HELL YES: Shovel Knight is my most wanted indie, even moreso then the Knight. His game is my 4th favorite game ever, only behind Persona 3 (which if we ever rate the P3 Protag I will talk about), Fallout: New Vegas, and Sonic Adventure 2. And he's a ton of fun in Rivals and I would love to see what Sakurai would do. Oh and the soundtracks, his game has such an amazing soundtrack.

(also GoodGrief741 pls help me nom the P3 protag after this.)

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

You shan't get in

Chance: 7%
Shantae is a character who I feel really got her chances dashed by not being in FP1. In FP2, Shovel Knight is back in play, which is probably the most damning thing you can tell an indie. Quote and Reimu are also still in play, and of the four I'd say Shantae has the least credentials. She has massive popularity, and has been mostly aligned with Nintendo. Thing is, Shovel Knight is also wildly popular, you don't have to look too far to find Indies aligned with Nintendo nowadays, and her latest game debuted on Apple Arcade (seriously, talk about devaluing your product). If they want to get an Indie, I think they'll go for someone with historical impact. If they just want a popular character, they're spoiled for choice.

And if someone told me right now that Matt Bozon called once again for fans to rally behind Shantae and therefore she's disconfirmed, I'd believe them.

Want: 40%
I try not to let her fanbase turn me off the character in Smash, I really do. Because the only reason I'd be okay with Shantae in Smash is because of her huge support, otherwise I don't see any merits. Aside from that, I don't care either way. I've played some of her games and I've really liked them. She isn't exactly hard moveset competition to the likes of Dixie Kong and Prince Sable, who I support. The only reason this is a 40 instead of a 50 is because Matt Bozon's desperate efforts to get her in Smash are pretty pathetic.

The Undertaker

Chance: 16%
Shovel Knight is the indie to beat. He got an AT while others managed nothing more than Spirits and Mii Costumes. It's his spot to lose. And it won't be easy to take him down. While not the first Indie, he was the first of the modern wave, a game that exploded into the scene and changed the way people perceived indie games. Huge success and popularity - including Smash demand - ensued. I don't think his popularity really waned and I think he'd be first in mind for Nintendo when thinking Indies.

Want: 90%
Haven't played Shovel Knight yet, but I respect its place in history. And in the end, isn't that what Smash is about?

Wario Blast

Chance: 20%
If this pass goes like last pass I see no franchise more apt than Bomberman. Iconic, influental, tons of history, Nintendo games galore, fan demand. He's got the potential for a unique and creative moveset, a stage unlike any other, great tunes, Spirits. And he's practically a Nintendo mascot. I think it could be his time.

Want: 100%
Bomberman is great. As party games go, Bomberman and Smash are my go-to picks. I love the idea of this uber-minimalist yet strategic moveset where all you have is bombs. And I would wish that an appearance in Smash would spur a return to the glory days of the franchise. But given Konami that's wishful thinking.

Noms: **** it, Kiryu's fine. I'll start with Ryo Hazuki, x5
Predictions: Amaterasu 7.13%
Monster Hunter 10.22%

They're not going to promote an Assist Trophy to an actual character in the same game where they're an Assist Trophy (EXCLUDING the hypothetical Special Edition on whatever more powerful version of the Switch Nintendo eventually makes)

Why not? I'm afraid that in the multiple AT ratings we've had you've yet to provide an answer to that very simple question.

"It hasn't happened before" isn't an actual answer, btw.

The only thing is that he is not very popular

Not true, Bomberman was highly requested. I'd say he was one of the most requested third party characters going into this game, with support spanning all the way from the pre-Brawl days. It's just that his very quick ATing clipped his wings hard. But he must have performed in the ballot for sure.

also GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 pls help me nom the P3 protag after this.

You and I have very different tastes in games, my friend.

He could happen, but honestly I don't see it happening until FP2.

You mean FP3?

 

[3DSNinja]

Yes, I mean FP3.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember, and for those of you who joined the game during this fixed schedule: today is the last day your nominations can affect the top seven. When today ends, the top 7 characters and concepts on the noms list will become next week's schedule - all other nominations will stay the same. So if you want to get your character on the list, today's your day!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Standalone stage as DLC/Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC pre-Shantae/Bomberman/Shovel Knight

Freddy Fazbear x295
Kazuma Kiryu x240
The Blob (De Blob) x205
Crypto x205
Carmen Sandiego x185
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x185
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x170

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Quote x120
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

[Rerate] Paper Mario x95
Chun-Li x90
Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Bubsy x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Decidueye x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Segata Sanshiro x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Falinks x60
Gnar (League of Legends) x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Terra Branford x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Alucard (Castlevania) x15
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Sirfetch'd x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x5
Lora and Jin x5
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

The Blob and Crypto both cross 200 noms. Concept: Octopath Traveler rep ties with Carmen Sandiego for fifth place.

Gnar has over 50 noms.

New challengers approaching! Lora and Jin, and Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game, each with 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know much about any of these characters. Although I still think ATs deconfirm, so take that as you will.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Shantae

Chance: 0%
If Sans and Cuphead didn't make it in as full-fledged fighters, what would make Shantae any different? I honestly didn't even know about Shantae before speculation (and then Alpharad made a video where he played it again). I've since played it and it's fun yeah, but chance-wise? I don't see it.

Want: 40%
Like I said, I've since played the game and liked it. Her transformations could definitely translate into a fun, unique moveset. I'm not giving a higher score though because there are others I want more.

Bomberman

Chance: 0%
If any AT becomes playable, this isn't the one. Not just that, but core mechanics of that game series don't mesh very well with smash as a fighter. An AT represents it better than a figher would.

Want: 0%
I had a blast playing Bomberman on SNES with my sister back in the day. All the dirty tricks we'd learned, sometimes voluntarily killing ourselves at the start to hover to the other and trap them. Because nothing screams "fun" more than preventing the other from playing. And yet, I don't want Bomberman in Smash. I don't see a moveset that I'd find fun to be made with him that represents faithfully the original franchise.

Shover Knight

Chance: 0%
Again, if any AT becomes playable, this isn't the one. Unlike Bomberman, Shovel Knight did become playable in Rivals of Aether with a neat shopping mechanic. Definitely feasible in Smash as well... but feasible doesn't mean it'll ever happen. Since he's already an AT, Nintendo would need good reason to make a new contract (or modify it) instead of bringing a fresh member to the crew. And I just don't see that incentive with Shovel Knight.

Want: 10%
Aside from the shopping mechanic, I didn't find Shovel Knight too innovative in Rivals of Aether. Too "bland" to my taste. I'd much rather have other candidates.

Predictions:
Amaterasu - 11%
Monster Hunter - 10%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Since he's already an AT, Nintendo would need good reason to make a new contract (or modify it) instead of bringing a fresh member to the crew. And I just don't see that incentive with Shovel Knight.

This good reason is called "Shovel Knight would sell DLC and therefore make money".

 

[Ninjaed]

This good reason is called "Shovel Knight would sell DLC and therefore make money".

This argument can be said about literally any character, even the most obscure. It's a terrible argument that is indeed necessary yet insufficient. Not to mention they can make more money by selling other, more famous/requested candidates.

 

[RouffWestie]

Shantae
Chance: 0%
Nintendo picked the DLC, so I think they'd aim for someone much more popular or important to gaming. The series is represented with 2 spirits, so I think they've given it some recognition.
Want: 10%
I've played several games and they were good. I think she has enough abilities that would be a good fit for a Smash fighter. I'm not going crazy over her or anything. There's other characters I'd have a bigger reaction to.

Bomberman
Chance: 0%
Bomberman seemed really possible with Super Bomberman R bringing the franchise back during the Switch launch. However now, he's not really a big contender, since so many other bigger franchises are now on the table. He has at least been given recognition as a spirit and assist, so I think he's been represented as much as reasonably possible.
Want: 10%
I've played a lot of Bomberman games, there's a ton of different bombs used in so many different ways throughout his franchise. I think he'd be a good fit for Smash, but I'd be more excited to see other newcomers.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
Being another western franchise probably makes him harder to negotiate, but that's probably not his biggest issue. Though he became a highly successful icon for the indie dev scene, there's not much reason for Nintendo to choose him with so many other popular and historically-significant franchises to choose from. His franchise got multiple spirits and he was included as an assist, so I feel like they've given Shovel Knight as much as they could.
Want: 0%
I've never played shovel knight, but it doesn't look like something for me. He's fine as an assist. I don't think he needs to be a full fighter.

 

[GoodGrief741]

This argument can be said about literally any character, even the most obscure. It's a terrible argument that is indeed necessary yet insufficient. Not to mention they can make more money by selling other, more famous/requested candidates.

You act like Shovel Knight isn't already a highly famous and requested character. If that's what it takes to get in according to you, then he satisfies the conditions.

Otherwise, I agree. Almost every character would sell DLC. And that's honestly the whole point. I'm not saying that Shovel Knight's getting in, what I am saying is that there are reasons why he would get in. You're the one speaking in absolutes, giving 0% scores and saying there's no reason to choose him. When the previous Pass already sold very well with characters that are more famous and requested and characters that are less famous and requested, that should tell you that the requirements for inclusion are already more than fulfilled.

 

[Ninjaed]

You act like Shovel Knight isn't already a highly famous and requested character. If that's what it takes to get in according to you, then he satisfies the conditions.

Otherwise, I agree. Almost every character would sell DLC. And that's honestly the whole point. I'm not saying that Shovel Knight's getting in, what I am saying is that there are reasons why he would get in. You're the one speaking in absolutes, giving 0% scores and saying there's no reason to choose him. When the previous Pass already sold very well with characters that are more famous and requested and characters that are less famous and requested, that should tell you that the requirements for inclusion are already more than fulfilled.

Well I never said there's no reason to pick him. If he weren't an AT, I'd give him a higher score. But as things stand, not only is he an AT (which means another hurdle to get through), he's also not as famous nor requested as Sans from Undertale. I'm basing my score on those 2 facts. If the biggest, likeliest indie rep didn't make it in, I feel confident enough to say that Shovel Knight will absolutely not get promoted within the same game from AT to fighter. Nintendo would need reasons valid enough to do so and Shovel Knight simply doesn't provide enough. I hope that makes my point clearer?

 

[Shinuto]

Shantae

Chance: 80% I feel that with more and more indies getting representation in Smash, and Shantae having that out of place online tag icon, I think her as a base spirit improves her chances. She unlike these "bigger indies" has something pretty much none of them have, an actual multi game series that shows she can last and isn't a one hit wonder. I think base spirits are in the running for this fighter pass given the time between choosing those spirits and deciding on the characters for this fighter pass.

Want: 100% Most wanted character by a wide margin, I see as having a very versatile and fun moveset potential.

Bomberman
Chance: 20% I don't see ATs as possible, personal opinion, they could flag as AT to be off when he's in play but I just don't see AT upgrades being a thing, in the same game anyway.

Want: 80% Really cool character with a ton of legacy and a unique kind of mechanic to focus on, being solely based around using bombs.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 10% AT situation as explained above but less "oomph" compared to Bomberman

Want: 60% I feel he has dipped abit in Smash requests since his AT debut, and I'm a little sick of SK as a brand currently to be honest, it shows up EVERYWHERE it seems.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Obstagoon
2.18% Chance - 18.27% Want
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 2.54%

Toxtricity
12.34% Chance - 41.62% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 14.06%
Toxtricity is, out of all the Gen 8 Pokémon we've rated, the most wanted. Its popularity was mentioned by many as a factor for why they wanted it, so it seems like we have a people's champion here.

Melmetal
1.71% Chance - 21.10% Want
First time we rated it it got 11.48% chance and 23.15% want. Melmetal was the first character rated for DLC after the Nov 1st Direct, back when he was the sole contender the dreaded Gen 8 rep. Last time we rated it it got 3.62% chance and 10.78% want. After E3, with more of Sword and Shield revealed and the expectation of no first party characters, his chance took a dive. Low want could be explained by those who supported SwSh wanting more representative Pokemon and those that didn't wanting no Pokemon at all. With SwSh out, the chance of a Pokemon that debuted in Pokemon GO being the gen rep have tanked. Want also saw a recovery, though I should mention that it's mainly due to few ratings and a pair of 50+ scores.
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with 2.20%
Melmetal has the dubious honor of being the least likely Gen 8 rep.

Urshifu
11.43% Chance - 16.46% Want
Winner of predictions was Calamitas with 12.31%
Urshifu is the least wanted Gen 8 rep. Probably has something to do with the fact that since his DLC isn't out yet he's the epitome of a shill pick.

I figure I should repost the scores for the concept of a Gen 8 Pokémon, just for comparison.

Post-Joker reveal, but pre-release: 10.49% Chance - 16.16% Want
Post-Hero and Banjo reveals: 12.73% Chance - 17.89% Want

Standalone stage as DLC
5.74% Chance - 70.88% Want
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed with 6.20%

While not a rerate, I'll repost the scores for a similar concept:

Stages outside the Fighter Pass (pre-Joker release): 43.27% Chance - 85.96% Want
Stages outside the Fighter Pass (post-E3): 28.06% Chance - 75.35% Want
No more stages beyond the Pass (post-Terry): 29.96% Chance - 9.32% Want

Echo Fighters as DLC
7.53% Chance - 75.40% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 7.46%
This concept both is and isn't a rerate. We have previously rated a concept with the same name. However, yesterday's rating came with the asterisk that it's actually referring to an Echo Fighter Pass, unlike the previous ratings. Many rated it taking that into account, but many others rated the concept the title indicated. For some it was the same, but for others the distinction made the difference one way or another. All in all I don't think this is a very definitive new score for those reasons. But anyway...
First time we rated this it got 26.00% chance and 80.67% want. This was in the days after the Game Awards 2018. We didn't have much to go on back then but it seemed like a reasonable possibility. The rumors of Joker's Echo "Jane" were much stronger then and probably helped. Last time we rated this it got 31.16% chance and 75.83% want. Just after last year's E3, and honestly I can't remember why it was that high back then. Might have been Jane, might have been some other rumor, I dunno. Either way want has been mostly the same, some really want it and the others aren't against it.

Extra noms
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Calamitas 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 38
Icedragonadam 10
Louie G. 5
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 5
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 10

Well I never said there's no reason to pick him.

Nintendo would need good reason (to pick him) And I just don't see that incentive with Shovel Knight.

not only is he an AT (which means another hurdle to get through)

Why's that?

he's also not as famous nor requested as Sans from Undertale.

I disagree. I think they're similar levels of famous, and Shovel Knight absolutely trounces Sans in requests.

I think it's also very telling that they made Shovel Knight an AT for base game when they could have pursued Undertale content like an AT or boss.

She unlike these "bigger indies" has something pretty much none of them have, an actual multi game series that shows she can last and isn't a one hit wonder.

Undertale: 2 games in 5 years
Shovel Knight: 7 games in 6 years
Cave Story: 1 game, 1 enhanced edition and 1 remake in 16 years (releases in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018)
Touhou: 34 games (and those are just the official ones) in 23 years

Yeah I don't think you get to say these are one-hit wonders or that they don't have staying power.

 

[Cadillac]

Shantae

Chance: 80% I feel that with more and more indies getting representation in Smash, and Shantae having that out of place online tag icon, I think her as a base spirit improves her chances. She unlike these "bigger indies" has something pretty much none of them have, an actual multi game series that shows she can last and isn't a one hit wonder. I think base spirits are in the running for this fighter pass given the time between choosing those spirits and deciding on the characters for this fighter pass.

Want: 100% Most wanted character by a wide margin, I see as having a very versatile and fun moveset potential.

Bomberman
Chance: 20% I don't see ATs as possible, personal opinion, they could flag as AT to be off when he's in play but I just don't see AT upgrades being a thing, in the same game anyway.

Want: 80% Really cool character with a ton of legacy and a unique kind of mechanic to focus on, being solely based around using bombs.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 10% AT situation as explained above but less "oomph" compared to Bomberman

Want: 60% I feel he has dipped abit in Smash requests since his AT debut, and I'm a little sick of SK as a brand currently to be honest, it shows up EVERYWHERE it seems.

That's a really high chance for Shantae.
Also, what you said about spirits improving her chances while AT promotions are not happening seems off.

 

[warpenguin55]

I think her as a base spirit improves her chances.

I haven't seen anyone say that a spirit helps a characters chances yet. Why do you think Shantae's chances are better because she's a spirit?

 

[Shinuto]

Being in the game so early on for dlc this far in the game's lifespan shows they saw reason to include her at all. t shows that she had lots of support to get in before Sans or Cuphead.

 

[Cadillac]

Being in the game so early on for dlc this far in the game's lifespan shows they saw reason to include her at all. t shows that she had lots of support to get in before Sans or Cuphead.

Same could be said for Geno, Bandana Waddle Dee, and ATs like Shovel Knight.

 

[Louie G.]

SHANTAE

Chance: 7.5%
How you feel about Shantae's chances lies upon a few factors. What do you think spirits mean in regards to character representation? Where do you think Shantae falls on the indie ladder? Do you think indies can even make the jump to playable?

First off, yeah I think spirits can be promoted. I won't bore you with the details because we've all talked way too much about this.

My opinion is that Shantae is one of the more significant indies out there, and Wayforward one of the leading indie developers. The fact that she has a spirit in the base game at all (along with Risky Boots), which was even shown off in the WOL trailer, says quite a lot to validate Shantae as one of the "big indies" worth showcasing in Smash. While her series isn't quite at the viral level of Undertale or Cuphead, or the massive critical acclaim of the aforementioned games and Shovel Knight, Shantae is still a widely popular and recognizable character who predates most of the major indie players. So those are the two major factors in her favor, her relative popularity (specifically in the context of Smash requests / presumed Ballot support) and her veteran status not just as a longstanding indie star but also as a Nintendo mainstay.

In addition, Wayforward is fairly close with Nintendo, enough to put out a recent exclusive title in Vitamin Connection and bring just about all of its games onto Nintendo consoles. They aren't by any means a megaton Triple A company, but as I mentioned prior are certainly one of the more recognizable indie studios. I also believe that Shantae has found moderate success and popularity in Japan, enough to have several figures developed of the Shantae cast.

So Shantae has a decent amount of things in her favor, so what's the bottom line? I just don't see her being a priority right now. If Nintendo really wants to go with an indie character... I suppose it could be Shantae, she doesn't have a Mii Costume at least, and Shovel Knight- well we'll get to him shortly. Personally I think Sans and Cuphead are somewhat telling of how Nintendo thinks of indies right now, and that Mii Costumes are about the most we're going to see. Maybe next game they'll be a little luckier.

Want: 80%
I've got a bit of a soft spot for Shantae, I've enjoyed her games and especially the characters and music that those games provide. I just think Shantae is kind of a perfect fit for Smash Bros. She has loads of moveset potential and a really fun colorful design, and then of course the amazing music that she could bring along with her. I also really like pirate aesthetics, and genies are also really cool, so yeah she strikes a few of my sweet spots. I imagine she would be very very fun, at this point she pretty much feels like she was made to fit right into Smash.

BOMBERMAN

Chance: 2%
I like Bomberman a lot, I wish I could have more faith in the little guy, but I'm just not seeing it. I think Bomberman is among the more popular ATs, one of the characters who saw the most disappointment with his exclusion... although I do believe that Simon was absolutely the right move. In any case, this once again rests on a couple questions - Would Bomberman be a priority to Nintendo and, furthermore, if we by any chance got an AT promotion what are the odds it would be Bomberman?

Well in my eyes it's pretty low. I've said it about the other ATs, if we get an AT promotion I'm confident that it will be Waluigi. Unlike spirits, ATs play a much more direct and celebrated role, you have these characters specifically created with the intention of playing an active role in battle through their physical presence onstage. As a disclaimer, I do think that this is possible to transcend and work around. Chrom got in despite already being in a Final Smash. The bigger picture here is, if they were going to do it, would it be for Bomberman? Probably not, right?

So an already pretty low chance of AT promotions and Bomberman not being the highest priority on this ladder means I would shift my efforts toward supporting Bomberman for the next Smash Bros instead. I'm pretty happy he's in the game at all, for what it's worth. I think his AT is nice and hell, Bomberman being incorporated into the game in any capacity means they care about him. They could have easily just not bothered. This special little third party AT role only belongs to a few characters, the other being Shov- well, again, we'll get to him shortly.

Want: 70%
I want Bomberman more for next Smash than I do this one, but if by some chance he was able to squeeze in I would be happy to have him. I particularly love Bomberman music, Bomberman Hero has one of my favorite VGM soundtracks of all time! Not too much to say about him as I'm also not really attached to nor do I have much history with his games, but I like the character and I like the content that he would bring along with him. Like I said, maybe next time.

SHOVEL KNIGHT

Chance: 1%
I think many people from the getgo were of this impression that if an indie character ever got into Smash Bros, it would be Shovel Knight. And I mean, I guess they weren't completely wrong since Shovel Knight was the first indie character to appear as a major supporting role, but not as a playable character. Nowadays though, after Shovel Knight's prime has kind of passed, I feel like the race for playable character is still up for grabs. Shovel Knight is still a major contender for this eventual playable indie role, but with Shantae, Sans and Cuphead with their feet in the door as well there's a bit more competition for when we get there.

Based on everything I already addressed with my other writeups, I don't really see any AT getting promoted before Waluigi. Shovel Knight has at least had some recent content recently, and more games on the horizon, showing that even if he's fallen a bit from the pedestal of "king of the indies", his legacy is just beginning and he has a bright future ahead. I'm unsure how successful Shovel Knight is in Japan, but I'm sure he's at least a bit more widely known from his role in Smash now. Give it a little while, maybe next game will finally be his time.

Want: 65%
I'm a little worn out after seeing Shovel Knight everywhere over the last five or so years, but it's hard to deny that he hasn't made quite the name for himself. He's a cool character with loads of fun abilities and fantastic music by the same composer responsible for Shantae's. He's not my first choice for an indie character... that would actually be Sans, if I'm being completely honest with you. But hey, if we got Shovel Knight I'd welcome him with open arms.

On a side note, where's the Shovel Knight mii costume? That seems so easy, but we haven't gotten it yet. Hopefully sometime during FP2 we can get a Shovel Knight swordfighter with Strike the Earth as a track! I would love that.

PREDICTIONS
Ammy - 13.25%
Monster Hunter - 27%

NOMINATIONS - TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN x10

 

[Proceleon]

Oh for goodness' sake! I can't believe people are still talking about these characters.

Shantae
Chance: 0%
As much as people would love to believe Spirits don't deconfirm, it's become painfully clear they do. The Piranha Plant spirit was held back for the Fighter, Rex was made a Spirit because he explicitly couldn't be added as a Fighter, and Byleth got a Spirit Board where Pokemon SWSH and Ring Fit got simple Events.
TL;DR: Spirits deconfirm. Get over it.
Want: 17%
One of the more unique options. I'd be interested how they interpret her transformation gimmick.

Bomberman
Chance: 0%
He's an Assist. He's dead.
Want: 15%
I've seen Konami's franchise library, and quite frankly, they can do a more interesting style than just "bombs everywhere."

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
Assist. Trophy.
Want: 13%
I'm not ecstatic about Shovel Knight as a series, and even then there are better Indies out there.

 

[Ridrool64]

Ret-2-go nowhere.

Chance: 5%. Shantae is a very polarizing character among those in the Smash Speculation scene. Does she have an earnest shot?... My take is "not really", as there's a few factors at play. The first, did Shantae do as well on the ballot as claimed? We can't verify this, but if Simon Belmont was considered a ballot pick despite never really being that big in the Smash fandom, then it's entirely possible she got swallowed by a silent majority, which would put her presumed "ballot superiority" into question. The second, why should Shantae make the leap over, say, Rayman, or Bandana Waddle Dee when it comes to Spirits? Rayman is a lot like Shantae, except he's older, has had quite a few iconic titles, has an entire moveset made out by combining his modern and classic appearances, and comes from both the bigger series and company? Bandana Waddle Dee is also from the bigger series, and being first party, doesn't require licensing. Last but not least, let's check out the other indie characters in respect. Shantae is basically completely outclassed by Reimu when it comes to legacy and status as a regional-specific icon, and Quote also puts up a great fight. Undertale spirits pending, Frisk could also be a big thorn in Shantae's side. In general, I don't expect her. There is one more reason I don't expect her, and that's Risky Boots' spirit. Risky is easily the top candidate for a Legend Spirit in a board, and I think that her inclusion as an Advanced Spirit base-game is telling me that there wasn't really any plans for her to get in.

Want: I will be taking an abstention on this one. I have only played Risky's Revenge, and my thoughts on the character are never quite the same. Some days I'd be accepting or fine with her getting in, others not so much.

Ever trap yourself in a one-block alley and blow yourself up? It's hilarious but also insulting to yourself when it happens.

Chance: It is with a somewhat, but not that heavy heart that I rate Bomberman as having a 0% chance. Bomberman, unfortunately, will not be playable in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. In the "Assist Promotion" front, he is so badly outclassed by Waluigi it isn't even funny, it's just tragic. In the "Konami rep" front, you'd think he'd have it good, and then Bill Rizer, an NES icon, and Frogger, an arcade icon, also make this way too stacked in favor of them. I can't see Nintendo picking him for any reason.

Want: 65%. Power Bomberman showed me the light before my eyes when it comes to Bomberman in Smash. The music is catchy, the character is charming, and Bomberman would even represent a new genre (battle royale). That being said, he's a bit too recent (in my wishlists) for me to really consider him a top tier contender. Still, if he were the first ever Assist Promotion, I wouldn't be crying over an incorrect prediction but happy to see him in.

FOR SMASHERY

Chance: 1%. Shovel Knight is more or less in the same boat as Bomberman. Except, as a Yacht Club Games rep he's a standout, and by that I mean the only serious candidate. As an indie rep, if he's on the table, he's top 5 free, good case for top 3. But I think the big problem here is that Shovel Knight content in SSBU is already present in the form of a spirit for Shield Knight as well as the DLC campaign protags. That hurts his Spirit List a fair bit, and a Gen 8 case could be made here that they likely wouldn't have been included had he been in contention.

Want: 65%. Behind Frisk, I'd say Shovel Knight is the second most deserving indie character when it comes to my eyes. The impact Shovel Knight left when it came out was actually pretty impressive, and the game just finishing its final major update recently means that he remains relevant even when his game is old. Plus, the game itself? Pretty darned great. Aside from maybe not really having a terribly interesting potential stage, Shovel Knight in Smash would probably come with a lot of great content.

Who will be the winner between Ammy and MH? One has no content included in Smash Ultimate, and no potential Mii Costumes to have return. The other does to both, but comes from an almost atomically more successful series. Still, I think Ammy will win here. Amaterasu: 17.20%. Monster Hunter: 15.69%, as many debate on whether or not Rathalos disconfirms them or all but confirms them. Paper Mario x 10.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain,

Nominate character who is not the star of their game x5

Prediction
Ammy 22%
Monster Hunter 36%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Being in the game so early on for dlc this far in the game's lifespan shows they saw reason to include her at all. t shows that she had lots of support to get in before Sans or Cuphead.

Watch out, if you keep typing this post might start to make sense!

 

[zferolie]

Ok lets do this.

Shantae:

Chance: 50%

I am of the feelimg if spirits are being upgraded, she is a shoe in along with Geno and possibly Rayman. If no spirits are getting updated shes not coming. Nintendo has been slowly getting more indie content into the game, which shows they know indies are important. However they are most likely only going to have 1, and shantae is one of the top 3 ones still possible. The others are Reimu or the knight or Hornet. Reimus biggest obstacle is if nintendo feels shes too who outside of japan, and i could see the knight getting the treatment of sans and cuphead.

Want: 100% she is easily my most wanted character. She would have a super unique playstyle, has a ton of charm, and another female would be great.

Bomberman:

Chance: 5% i really feel the only hard deconfirm atm at assist trophies. However, i dont want to say 0 as no offical word on the matter has been said and sakurao loves breaking our fanrules.

Want: 50% i am neautral on him. I think he would be a great rep but his assist trophy does such a good job representing him already.

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 2% same with bomberman, but also that people really overblow his popularity or impact. Other indies deserve it more then him.

Want: 50% i want other indies, bit wont be mad of hes in because he would play fun

Nom: Donbe and Hikari x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (10%) and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.

By chance:

Spoiler: Chance Totals

1. Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance
2. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance
3. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
4. Dante: 49.38% Chance
5. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
6. Geno: 42.50% Chance
7. Sora: 40.58% Chance
8. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
9. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
10. 2B: 35.41% Chance
11. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
12. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
13. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
14. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
15. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
16. Isaac: 20.45% Chance
17. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
18. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
19. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
20. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
21. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
22. Rex: 17.52% Chance
23. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
24. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
25. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
26. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
27. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
28. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
29. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
30. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
31. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
32. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
33. Elma: 6.48% Chance
34. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
35. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance
36. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
37. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
38. Midna: 4.33% Chance
39. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
40. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance
41. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
42. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
43. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
44. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

By want:

Spoiler: Want Totals

1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want
3. Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
4. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
5. Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want
7. Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
8. Isaac: 67.22% Want
9. Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
10. Dante: 64.23% Want
11. 2B: 64.09% Want
12. Geno: 62.93% Want
13. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
14. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
15. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
16. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
17. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
18. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
19. Midna: 57.17% Want
20. Sora: 54.44% Want
21. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
22. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
23. Rayman: 52.35% Want
24. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
25. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
26. Rex: 50.95% Want
27. The Knight: 50.12% Want
28. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
29. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
30. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
31. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
32. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
33. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
34. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
35. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
36. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
37. Thrall: 26.50% Want
38. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
39. Tracer: 22.73% Want
40. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
41. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
42. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
43. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased. This list is updated based on if any potential ratings for them were cancelled, be they nominations or on the schedule but whacked before then. Spirit Events (that feature the character) and DLC Mii Costumes are the only criteria for this. Must have been AFTER Byleth's reveal, though can be from before Byleth's release. Currently, Ring Fit Trainee remains the only one to be disconfirmed that meets all these criteria and was in speculation at all (Warframe wasn't, Cuphead died already). An honorable mention does go to Kunio-kun, who we rated before Byleth's reveal but was whacked during Byleth's waiting period.

Melmetal gets the dishonor of not only being the least likely Pokémon, but also the outright second least likely potential newcomer, not even a full percent over Hat Kid. Meanwhile, Urshifu and Obstagoon are the two least wanted newcomers. All is not gloom for the ratings, though, because concepts have been doing very well for themselves in Want. Echo Fighters are almost as wanted as THE Crash Bandicoot! And while Individual Stages didn't do quite as well, they're still very much very popular.

Not only does the Want Pass have a complete best timeline (featuring Echo Fighters, and individual stages), it also has a worst timeline (Hat Kid, Tracer, Melmetal, Vault Boy, Obstagoon, and Urshifu). That'd be extreme favoritism not only to Pokémon, but also include two characters from very infamous series and companies. Hat Kid... I wonder what's so bad about her that she rated that poorly?

 

[Shinuto]

I dont understand what youre saying

Watch out, if you keep typing this post might start to make sense!

 

[Sari]

The queen of indie games... and other hilarious jokes you can tell your friends

Chance: 5%
With a new Fighter Pass arriving over a year after the launch of the base game, I think base game spirit/AT characters are back on the table - even if only on the edge of it. Would Nintendo be interested in promoting a somewhat popular spirit candidate such as Shantae? Maybe, but either way it's hard to see indies as a whole getting a playable character considering bigger names like Sans have only gotten a Mii costume in the end. When it comes to promoting spirit characters I feel like indies are on the lower end of Nintendo's interests.

Also I find it funny that people gave me crap a while back for thinking Shantae couldn't be playable since Shovel Knight was only able to get an AT. And then in the end, Shantae just got two spirits while other indies like Shovel Knight, Undertale, and Cuphead got much more significant content in Smash.

Want: 95%
Anyone who has seen what I've said about Shantae in the past would probably think that I have some sort of vendetta against her and her series. But the truth is I don't; in fact, Shantae is my second most wanted indie character in Smash (first being Quote of course). Her games are a blast and Shantae has a ton of moveset potential through the use of her transformations and the tons of items in the series.

-----

Just remembered that I never got around to picking up Bomberman R. Now that I have a Switch I probably should...

Chance: 1%
Like I said a week or so ago, I don't think AT promotions are all that likely. Even if we do get one, it'll probably be Waluigi or Isaac. On top of this the Bomberman series only recently got revived in 2017 but that was a while ago and I feel like Sakurai and Nintendo's priorities are probably elsewhere. He'll probably be overshadowed by a bunch of other Konami characters who currently aren't represented in Smash.

Want: 100%
One of my earliest Smash requests I can think of. Both Bomberman 64 and Bomberman Hero are two of the earliest gaming memories I have. I still remember the days of me trying to get as far as I could in Bomberman Hero only for my brother to make us play some stupid game called Super Smash Bros. His games are a blast the bomb very fun and he's a colorful character with potential for a great moveset.

-----

Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
Sort of a combination of Shantae and Bomberman as far as his chances go. On one hand, Shovel Knight has shown himself to be a big indie name. On the other, he's once again another indie already represented in Smash so Nintendo/Sakurai might not bother wanting to add him.

Want: 70%
Shovel Knight is a great indie game deserving of all the praise it gets. I'd be down for the Knight's inclusion but there are still a lot of other indies I'd rather see first.

-----

Amaterasu chance prediction: 13.04%
Monster Hunter chance prediction: 23.11%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

His games are a blast the bomb very fun

Why did this make me laugh as much as it did

 

[warpenguin55]

Being in the game so early on for dlc this far in the game's lifespan shows they saw reason to include her at all. t shows that she had lots of support to get in before Sans or Cuphead.

1 issue I have with this statement. Cuphead is owned by Mircosoft, who weren't working with Nintendo at the time Smash was being developed and Toby Fox recently started working with Nintendo(IDK when he started) so Sans might not have been available to be a spirit/costume during base development either.

 

[Calamitas]

*Bayonetta Shantae Voice* Let's Dance, Boys!

Chance: 10%
She's from a decently popular series, and has a good amount of support from the Smash community. The fact that she only made it in as a Spirit for the base game does quite hurt her chances though, I feel, since it makes it seem like she's not as important to Sakurai and his team as our other two candidates for today are.

Want: Abstain
Never played any Shantae game. So, no rating.

Lamp Oil Man, Rope Man, Bomber Man! You want it?

Chance: 5%
He may have some history to him, and already made it in as an Assist Trophy, but I don't think that he really has the big support to him that other characters have. I'll admit that this might just be me though, but I don't really see it. We also already have three Konami characters in the game, which makes me at least a bit doubtful whether we'll get another for this second pass.

Want: Abstain
Never touched the series, and I never found its core concept all too interesting, either. Still not gonna do a rating.

Stealthy shovel

Chance: 15%
A popular series, a character that has had plenty of support for Smash, and one that has already made it into the game as an Assist Trophy. He's also one of the few third-party characters that have a non-Smash amiibo, which showcases that the Yacht Club Games have some pretty strong ties with Nintendo. One big hurdle I'm seeing though is that most of his support seems to have died down.

Want: 30%
Shovel Knight is the only one out of those three that I actually played, and although I haven't even beaten the main campaign yet (hello, boss rush at the end. . .), I liked it well enough and wouldn't mind him making him in. Not exactly one of my most wanted by any means, though.

Predictions:
Amaterasu: 17.37%
Monster Hunter: 26.72%

Nominating any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Chance: 1*10^(-10)% (feel free to round down to zero). I've went on a rant about how I thought she's less likely than Goku before (I still do BTW), and I feel bad for her (especially considering my want score) so I'll just give the short version. There's too many variables against her. She's not only a spirit (spirits deconfirm), but she's the Waluigi of spirits, used to promote the mode, and we all know how unlikely Waluigi is. she's extremely obscure while still having a dedicated hatebase, fans seem to be mostly an afterthought due to how the 1st pass went besides Banjo, so her fan demand means nothing or even hurts her chances. And the second biggest nail in her coffin, with the first being PNG Deconfirmation, is that if they were to pick an indie rep, why would it be Shantae? We have indies who have taken the world by storm or are at the very least more popular than her. Sans and Frisk are gaming icons, Reimu is a Japanese Icon, Travis is important to Nintendo, you're not likely to find a gamer who doesn't know Freddy, Steve is literally the protagonist of the best-selling game of all time, and let's not forget breakout stars like Madeline, Hat Kid and Juan (Guacamelee, if anyone's wondering). Sans, Shovel Knight and Cuphead got (real) non-fighter roles in the game, while Shantae only got two PNG files. It's clear that she's a footnote to gamers and especially Nintendo...

Want: 100% Well, except for me. She's (tied for) my most wanted Smash character. There's just something about Shantae's character that gives her charm and makes her fit in with the likes of weird characters like Electric Mouse, ESP Child and Super Fighting Robot. Not to mention that her moveset is one of few instances of "what should her moveset be" rather than "what could her moveset be". She also sparked a Nindies revolution alongside Shovel Knight, with her being an indirect inspiration for Shovel Knight, due to the devs being former WF employees. She'd also be an underdog/comeback/rags-to-riches story if she were to get in, since 1: Her series has a thing (both story and sales-wise) of coming back from defeat 2: she'd rise from obscurity to being crowned an all-star, and 3: nobody expects her. Mostly personal biases, but I would really love to see her join the battle I'd even take a Mii Outfit at this point. Anything's better than a PNG File.

Shovel Knight and/or Bomberman chance: 1*10^(-5)% (again, you may round down to zero if you so desire). They're Assist Trophies. If I think spirits deconfirm, you better believe I think ATs do the same. After all, "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into battle"

And Bomberman's chances are looking like they might just go with Shantae's in less-likely-than-Goku-land, with rumors of Sony buying Konami franchises, and as we all know, Sony isn't as nice to Nintendo as Microsoft is. If Bomberman goes, my chance for him will lower to 1*10^(-10)% like Shantae. But that's then and if. I still don't think Bomberman stands a good chance, even if he stays away from Sony.

Bomberman Want: 70%.
Shovel Knight Want: 55%.
I've previously wanted both of these characters, with both having a huge influence on the Nintendo community each in their own ways, with the aforementioned Nindies revolution and Bomberman's multiple Nintendo appearances and even a crossover with Wario way back when. Great moveset potential with a little bit of outside-of-the-box thinking, and are really deserving of a slot. The only reason Shovel Knight is lower is because he is in direct competition with my (tied for) most wanted.

 

[Sid-cada]

Shantae

Chance - 1% - Spirits are a serve hurt to ho her chances. In addition, many more notable indies have gotten more content than her. While a pleasant surprise is in the works, looking at history doesn't paint a very positive image given that.

Want - 80% - I have an unplayed Shantae game still lying around. That said, I do find her interesting enough to warrant her inclusion, as I think her transformations can be fun.


Shovel Knight

Chance - 2.5% - Shovel Knight has become an icon of indie gaming. Sadly, that got him an Assist Trophy. Thus far, it seems Yacht Club games seems happy with how he is included, so I don't think they'll approach Nintendo as of now. Nintendo, meanwhile, I think has their mind elsewhere.

Want - 60% - Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed Treasure Trove's shovel of Hope. It's just that he's so everywhere that him appearing elsewhere doesn't feel special.


Bomberman

Chance - 0.05% - In my mind, only Shovel Knight or Waluigi have what it takes to escape Assist Trophy-dom. Anyone else just doesn't make enough waves, I think.

Want - 75% - Another classic character that feels like it should be in. I find it hard to find a reason to object, and his bomb-based moveset seems like fun.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

She's not only a spirit (spirits deconfirm), but she's the Waluigi of spirits, used to promote the mode, and we all know how unlikely Waluigi is.

I... Don't think you're on the same page as most people about Waluigi's likelihood.

so her fan demand means nothing or even hurts her chances.

Why would demand hurt her chances? I get it not mattering but why would Nintendo look at a character and go "this is a good character, but the fans want her too much for my taste"?

with rumors of Sony buying Konami franchises

Even if that rumor's true, it's still only Sony buying Castlevania, Silent Hill and Metal Gear, not Bomberman.

 

[Ninjaed]

Why would demand hurt her chances? I get it not mattering but why would Nintendo look at a character and go "this is a good character, but the fans want her too much for my taste"?

Character be too good. Better release another FE character.

 

[Neosonic97]

Lemme just correct something. Someone said this:

Shovel Knight's appearance as an assist trophy in 4

This didn't happen. Shovel Knight was only introduced to the series in Ultimate, as an AT.

 

[MeteoRain]

Shantae

Chance: 35%

Generally speaking, having a Spirit is not good sign. I'm not even counting the *insert character here* is more deserving fallacy.

Needless to say, I refuse to dismiss this character so easily.

In terms of what she's got, most would point out Seven Sirens or recent merchandise like the Funko Pop or the upcoming Totaku figure. These are just capitalism to my knowledge, they exist without Smash. What Shantae does have is being one of four base game oddities.

These oddities are concerning Online Tags. Shantae's case in particular is noticed when you stand back and look at 3rd parties that were lucky enough to have them.

Final Fantasy? Represented with a fighter.
Fatal Frame? Represented with an AT.
Pac Man? Fighter + AT
Bomberman? AT
Castlevania? Fighters + AT
Mega Man? Fighter + ATs
Sonic the Hedgehog? Fighter + ATs
Street Fighter? Fighters + AT
Virtua Fighter? AT
Metal Gear? Fighter + AT
Monster Hunter? AT
Bayonetta? Fighter + AT
Shovel Knight? AT

Starting to notice the trend? Let it sink in when see Shantae at the tail end of the Icon selection. That said, a theory never made any character a shoo in.

Who are the other 3 oddities you might ask? Geno, Rex, and Rayman.

Depending on how you weigh him due to being a Mario character, Geno arguably sits in the same boat as Shantae.

The S.S. Wishful Thinking I call it.

Meanwhile, Rex and Rayman are base game oddballs missing an ST Icon all together.

Overall, I completely doubt all four will be playable. Mark my words though, I believe one of these four will be playable in the near future. Geno probably being the most likely between them.

Want: 9001%

The design, the moves, the music. She's no titan of the gaming industry, but I'd go crazy no less.

Bomberman: 15%

Bomberman, Bomberman
Mass destruction across the land

Okay I'll stop.

Assist Trophies, the middle finger of character speculation. I'm actually not sure if they're out of the game this round, we've simply never had a Smash last this long in development past release. Who's to say characters like Isabelle wouldn't have become playable if the 3DS/Wii U dlc lasted a few years longer? That Ridley or Rool could of been more than a stage hazzard or trophy?

That said, they just don't seem as shakey as Spirits. If Nintendo wanted to keep them available for later, why go through the development trouble?

Nevertheless, there may be hope. If Ridley has taught us anything, it's that Nintendo and even the developers crack under pressure. That said, how bad was the backlash for Bomberman?

I feel Waluigi stole his thunder in terms of outrage. Isaac and Shadow fans even threw a significant fit. Bomberman was not pretty either, but I'm not even sure he contested against Skull Kid or Ashley in terms of backlash.

I feel like if any AT will see the chance of joining the roster it's between the Wah and Isaac, but hey. I've been plenty wrong before.

Want: 65%

Bomberman is a classic. He isn't high on my wanteds list though.

Shovel Knight: 5%

Same reasoning as Bomberman. The difference here is that I don't even recall backlash or humiliation towards this character being revealed an AT.

Want: 65%

Jake Kaufman music is always a treat, sue me.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'll abstain on Shantae, I don't know what to make of her chances tbh, and on top of that I don't like her either, so I don't think I can contribute anything meaningful to either the discussion or her scores.

Bomberman:

Chance: 2% - I highly doubt he'll break free from his AT chains, while he's a notable video game character, he's not to such an extent where there's pressure on Nintendo to promote him. He doesn't have the necessary support right now to make the leap either, so I'm pretty sure that by the end of Ultimate he'll be in the same place as he currently is.

Want: 60% - While I've always been a bit doubtful that Bomberman would make for a character I'd personally find fun to play as, I did play a fair bit of Bomberman as a kid, so he does hold some sentimental value to me. I generally appreciate getting more cartoony characters into the game too, they tend to fit in flawlessly, so he would be a good addition regardless of what his moveset would be.

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 5% - I'm probably being generous here, but with indie games' presence in Smash being ever growing, it does open an unlikely window for the king of the indies to be under reconsideration, and then potentially actually making the leap from there. Of course 5% is still a terrible chance though, and so I'm still pretty confident in saying that Shovel Knight will not happen. Not only is he stuck in AT hell, but his AT was also developed very recently, and as I mentioned back when we rated Waluigi, if an AT gets promoted I think they'd rather remove the AT instead of having an on/off switch depending on if the promoted character partakes in the battle, as clarity is and always has been a very big priority for the developers. That means that a recent AT like Shovel Knight's would be wasted resources, unlike someone like Waluigi who's AT has already done its job for three games running with only minor updates along the way, and I don't think any decision maker fancies that.

Want: 100% - For Shovelry! Shovel Knight is just a fantastic game with an incredibly charming personality, and I'm sure you've all heard the many plaudits it's gotten many times already. A cool design, a lot of fun attacks and items to incorporate into his moveset, top drawer music, several potential fun stage options, there are only things for me to love about the idea of him getting in.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Amaterasu from Okami and Monster Hunter from the Monster Hunter series.

Predict... Freddy Fazbear...

Megadoomer

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Here are some songs for today's characters:

Amaterasu

Spoiler: Okami Music

Monster Hunter

Spoiler: Monster Hunter Music