Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Street Thighter

Chance: 25%

Man, I can't believe we rated Freddy Fazbear before we did Chun-Li. That's... quite the embarrassment. Anyway, I'm sure Chun-Li needs no introduction, she's one of the most iconic female characters in gaming and one of the most recognizable fighting game characters. This alone is probably enough to–

"We wouldn't get a character from a represented series"
"There's never been a third-party series with 2 unique fighters"
"More SF content would be redundant"

Guys, seriously? We're still going with that "oh, they aren't going to add characters from represented series because new worlds mumbo-jumbo"? Come on, even by Smash speculation standards that's ridiculous. I didn't spend all of last year hearing that third parties are inherently hype only to be told that somehow, one of the most famous videogame characters in existence isn't. You really think Chun-Li in Smash wouldn't be a big deal? Not Street Fighter in Smash, Chun-Li by herself is the big deal. I guarantee you that nobody would care if that meant we got another character and stage with the SF logo. As for the "second unique third party character" thing, these dumb assertions have done nothing but bite as in the ass. Sure, precedent helps to narrow down your choices, but you can't see it as an iron-clad rule. Rather, ask yourselves, is this character a big enough deal that they could be the first to do so? Of course she is. Therefore, I can't see it as an issue.

Truth is, Street Fighter is mostly represented by SFII content. That leaves a huge gap for any Street Fighter newcomer to be able to get new content. Stage is obvious, so is music (just get tracks from literally any other game), and there's still many characters to be made into Spirits. That's it. It's really not hard to make a character pack.

So, with all that out of the way, is Chun-Li likely? Ehhh, maybe, I would give the edge to a character like Dante or Wright, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her take the spot. She expands the crossover aspect of Smash just as much as adding a new series would, she's just that prestigious.

Want: 100%
You can't want Smash to be the ultimate videogame crossover and not want characters like Chun-Li. That's just a contradiction. The fact that many people here are saying they don't want her because that means no new series... that's incredibly spoiled, holy ****. I hope this pass brings those expectations to a halt because otherwise Smash speculation will be hell from now on.

Noms: Earthworm Jim x5
Hornet prediction: 2.01%

 

[toonito]

Chun-Li

Chance: 1%
I don't see her getting in the Fighter Pass Vol. 2; would be highly (and pleasantly tbh) surprised if she's one of the 5 remaining slots. However I'd be surprised if she never got in a future Smash title possibly as early as the next Smash game. Despite her overall popularity I can see some backlash within the Smash fandom if SF were to get 3 characters (no moar FG characters, ugh more command inputs, etc.) which is fair considering fellow Capcom franchises like Devil May Cry, Resident Evil, and Ace Attorney don't have one playable character.

Want: 100%
She's a legit icon not just in fighting games but in all of gaming period. Easily the main female lead in SF alongside Ryu. Ken is my favorite SF character but I wouldn't be surprised if in the future its just Ryu and Chun-Li as SF reps in Smash. Incorporates both motion (Ryu, Ken) as well as charge (Terry's Rising Tackle) commands into her moveset. People bemoan Smash's disparity in female representation you can't really go wrong with one of the trailblazers in Smash. Her dutiful yet fun personality would be cool to see in the mix alongside ZSS, Mario, Snake, and so on. If people can ask for more characters from Kirby, Mario, FE, AC, etc. I can want another SF character.

Noms: Meowth x1
Concept: A Pokemon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

 

[warpenguin55]

"We wouldn't get a character from a represented series"

Are people really still saying this one? Wasn't it proven to not matter when we got Byleth?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Are people really still saying this one? Wasn't it proven to not matter when we got Byleth?

Um, Fire Emblem Three Houses wasn't represented. It's not franchise so much as games when Reggie said "new worlds".

ARMS as a game however is, which is the first time where the "new worlds" thing is properly broken. That or it was just a Fighter's Pass 1 thing at best.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Gex pre-Chun-Li

Alucard (Castlevania) x105
Sirfetch'd x100
Concept: New Zelda character x93
Decidueye x80
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x80
Concept: Contra rep x80
Minato Arisato x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x75
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x75
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x75
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x75
Meowth x74
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Junko & Monokuma x65
Earthworm Jim x60
Concept: DLC music packs x60
Axel Stone x55
Concept: Level-5 rep x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x24
Concept: Returning stages x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Guardian (Destiny) x20
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x20
[Rerate] Steve x20
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x5
Stage: Bowser's Castle x3
3 Mage Sisters x2

Alucard flies past 100 noms. Out of the giant, six-way tie that happened yesterday, only two emerge victorious: Contra rep and Minato Arisato, now tied alongside Decidueye and Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable for fourth place. Proto Man, Papyrus, Sackboy, and A character who isn't the star of their own game are all taken out of the equation (for now, anyway).

Axel Stone and Level-5 rep fight their way through the 50 nom mark.

Today's new challenger is Saki Amamiya, with 5 noms.

Are people really still saying this one? Wasn't it proven to not matter when we got Byleth?

Oh but you see, that's the exception that proves the rule, because it's still a "new world" even if it isn't a new franchise.

In the same fashion, we're getting an ARMS character from the same world as the one that's already represented, but since it's not represented as a fighter then it's fine.

Coming soon: Mario sports games aren't canon, so Waluigi's from a different universe!

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Oh but you see, that's the exception that proves the rule, because it's still a "new world" even if it isn't a new franchise.

In the same fashion, we're getting an ARMS character from the same world as the one that's already represented, but since it's not represented as a fighter then it's fine.

Coming soon: Mario sports games aren't canon, so Waluigi's from a different universe!

Guess since Chun-Li has her own movie we can say she comes from another universe too!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Chun-Li. However, I want to ask, if they decide to add a Street Fighter character to represent the post-SFII era, why would they go with Chun-Li and not someone from that era, like Alex or even Rashid? I'm pretty sure I saw someone bring that up in Chun-Li's favor, and while I don't see why not, I also want more elaboration.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Oh but you see, that's the exception that proves the rule, because it's still a "new world" even if it isn't a new franchise.

In the same fashion, we're getting an ARMS character from the same world as the one that's already represented, but since it's not represented as a fighter then it's fine.

Coming soon: Mario sports games aren't canon, so Waluigi's from a different universe!

Funny thing is, I always wondered if what Reggie meant by new worlds is "not a franchise with a playable character" to begin with.

Unless new worlds is actually cited as part of Fighter's Pass 2, he probably meant a literal new game in a franchise at best. Either way, I don't think his words were all that useful in the end.

-----------------

As for Chun-Li, I think she's in a good standing. She's a highly popular and iconic character and can bring tons of cool stuff to the table.

She's got a unique character build, and we don't have a particular character solely about kicks. She also could have some unique input commands too. Capcom USA is in good standings, and I doubt we'd get someone like Akuma since he'd probably be an Echo, and there's no reason to believe we're getting an Echo in this pass.

Chance: 30%. Despite the good standing, there's a ton of franchises in existence and Street Fighter did already get a character this game. So it's hard to say. I do feel they aren't as likely over a literal new franchise/world without a playable character.

Want: ...Hard to say. I like Akuma and Vega way more, but she'd be awesome anyway. I'd say 60% to be fair. She's super fun to play as in the home series, and awesome in the cartoon and anime~

Noms: Brian x5, cause I gotta nom 'em sometimes. XD

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Chun-Li. However, I want to ask, if they decide to add a Street Fighter character to represent the post-SFII era, why would they go with Chun-Li and not someone from that era, like Alex or even Rashid? I'm pretty sure I saw someone bring that up in Chun-Li's favor, and while I don't see why not, I also want more elaboration.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

It's not that she'd be added specifically to represent the post-SFII era, it's that there's still plenty of content from Street Fighter in general that could be used for her fighter pack because almost all the content currently in the game is from SFII. And adding the SF characters you suggested over Chun-Li is like the equivalent of adding Waluigi before Peach.

 

[amageish]

Chun-Li

Chance: 20%. She's definitely possible. She's the first lady of fighting games and, generally, super iconic. She would be super hype in general, and while I'm sure there would be backlash, I'm not certain if there are any characters who wouldn't have some backlash when there are 5 precious character slots left. SF has a lot of content in the base game, but it's retro-focused enough that it'd be easy to put new content in.

I'll admit there is no precedent for "A second character from a third-party series ignoring echoes," but... Well, rules are made to be broken. If we're breaking that rule, then I think Chun-Li makes a lot of sense due to her being, frankly, just as iconic as Ryu is.

Want: 90%. I tend to like trick characters, so a character with such a ready-made moveset as Chun-Li wouldn't be insanely hype to me, but she gets a 90% from iconicness alone. I also would appreciate if we got a female character that, like, actually physically appears on the select screen.

Noms: Level-5 Rep x 5

Predictions: Hornet. Well, given general reaction to non-Travis indies, I'll go with 0.4%...

 

[Laniv]

Chun-Li

Chance: 26%

Is she particularly likely among Street Fighter characters? Yes, unless you go for the off chance they choose another shoto like Dan or Akuma. But is she likely among other spirit characters? ...Not really, no.

Want: 93%
One of the the most prominent and popular Street Fighter characters. The first lady of fighting games. Would probably have two Final Smashes like Ryu and Ken. She's definitely got my vote.


Nominate Lord Fredrik as 67e x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight
63.50% Chance - 46.85% Want
Winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 63.36%
Our second Mii Costume rating, this is close to double Quote's chance rating, while Quote's has a higher want. Interpret them as you will, but for reference, their last scores as fighters are 15.36-63.83 (Quote) and 4.62-50.12 (HK). Either way, many dubbed the Knight as the frontrunner for the next premium Mii Costume.

Gex
3.91% Chance - 42.50% Want
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed with a precise 4.00%

 

[Sid-cada]

Chun-Li

Chance - 5% - She's probably the front runner when it comes to a third Street Fighter character. That said, I'm not convinced that one is coming. I'd think that if any series would be the next one to get a fully qualified character, I'd be Sonic, because I doubt any series will come close to breaking news. That, and characters with complex inputs typically have a ton of work put into them, which doesn't match with the sound of how the DLC team is downsizing. Both are enough to make me doubt her chances.

Want - 35% - I still dislike the idea of commands input in Smash. I'd be happy enough to bring this above 50% if she was included without them, but the history speaks against this happening.


Predictions

Hornet - 0.23% - Not likely at all...

Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[DanganZilla5]

which doesn't match with the sound of how the DLC team is downsizing.

Where are people getting this idea that the DLC team is downsizing?

 

[DaUsername]

Smoke Chun-Li Everyday
Chance: 0.01%
While she's definitely the most well-known SF character to not be in, I don't think we're getting a third SF character any time soon. If we were to get another Capcom character, it would almost definitely be someone from a franchise that isn't in yet, like DMC, Okami, or Ace Attorney. (Probably not Resident Evil, though. R.I.P.)
Want: N/A

Hornet prediction: 1%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokémon x5

 

[Ridrool64]

To be quite honest, though, there are a few repped series characters I'd be interested in.

It'll be different because these are characters I know and love, though I am entirely honest in saying that I think Final Fantasy is first in line for another rep from the same series. Street Fighter and Sonic are close, but I think Final Fantasy has the best shot.

And now for the moment you've all been waiting for.

Spoiler: Chance Totals

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
4. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
5. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
6. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
7. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
8. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance - Likeliest character with base-game content
9. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
10. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
11. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
12. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
13. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
14. 2B: 35.41% Chance
15. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
16. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
17. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance - Likeliest first party
18. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
19. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
20. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
21. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series
22. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
23. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
24. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
25. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
26. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
27. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
28. Rex: 17.52% Chance
29. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
30. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
31. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
32. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
33. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
34. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
35. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
36. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
37. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
38. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
39. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
40. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
41. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
42. Elma: 6.48% Chance
43. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
44. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
45. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
46. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
47. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
48. Midna: 4.33% Chance
49. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
50. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
51. Gex: 3.91% Chance
52. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
53. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
54. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
55. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
56. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
57. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
58. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
59. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
60. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
61. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character

Spoiler: Want Totals

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

1. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
3. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
4. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
5. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
7. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
8. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
9. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
10. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
11. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
12. Dante: 64.23% Want
13. 2B: 64.09% Want
14. Geno: 62.93% Want
15. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
16. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
17. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
18. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
19. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
20. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
21. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
22. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
23. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
24. Midna: 57.17% Want
25. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
26. Sora: 54.44% Want
27. Shantae: 54.28% Want
28. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
29. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
30. Rayman: 52.35% Want
31. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
32. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
33. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
34. Rex: 50.95% Want
35. The Knight: 50.12% Want
36. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
37. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
38. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
39. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
40. Gex: 42.50% Want
41. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
42. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
43. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
44. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
45. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
46. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
47. The Blob: 28.88% Want
48. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
49. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
50. Crypto: 27.63% Want
51. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
52. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
53. Thrall: 26.50% Want
54. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
55. Tracer: 22.73% Want
56. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
57. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
58. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
59. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
60. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview

Takeaways: The Knight getting a Mii Costume is straight up the single most likely thing we've ever rated. In addition, Lloyd is no longer alone in being more expected than desired, as more than a few want to see an indie join the fray and not get Mii'd. If I could predict wants, I don't think I would've been right with Gex. I'm honestly surprised he did worse than a Mii Costume, especially a Mii Costume of a somewhat popular request. Not in terms of chance, though, he did about right.

 

[Cadillac]

To be quite honest, though, there are a few repped series characters I'd be interested in.

It'll be different because these are characters I know and love, though I am entirely honest in saying that I think Final Fantasy is first in line for another rep from the same series. Street Fighter and Sonic are close, but I think Final Fantasy has the best shot.

And now for the moment you've all been waiting for.

Spoiler: Chance Totals

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
4. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
5. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
6. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
7. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
8. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance - Likeliest character with base-game content
9. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
10. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
11. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
12. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
13. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
14. 2B: 35.41% Chance
15. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
16. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
17. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance - Likeliest first party
18. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
19. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
20. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
21. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series
22. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
23. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
24. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
25. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
26. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
27. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
28. Rex: 17.52% Chance
29. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
30. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
31. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
32. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
33. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
34. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
35. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
36. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
37. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
38. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
39. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
40. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
41. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
42. Elma: 6.48% Chance
43. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
44. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
45. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
46. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
47. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
48. Midna: 4.33% Chance
49. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
50. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
51. Gex: 3.91% Chance
52. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
53. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
54. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
55. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
56. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
57. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
58. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
59. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party, least likely Japanese character
60. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
61. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character

Spoiler: Want Totals

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

1. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
3. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
4. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
5. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
7. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
8. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
9. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
10. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
11. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
12. Dante: 64.23% Want
13. 2B: 64.09% Want
14. Geno: 62.93% Want
15. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
16. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
17. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
18. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
19. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
20. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
21. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
22. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
23. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
24. Midna: 57.17% Want
25. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
26. Sora: 54.44% Want
27. Shantae: 54.28% Want
28. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
29. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
30. Rayman: 52.35% Want
31. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
32. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
33. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
34. Rex: 50.95% Want
35. The Knight: 50.12% Want
36. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
37. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
38. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
39. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
40. Gex: 42.50% Want
41. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
42. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
43. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
44. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
45. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
46. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
47. The Blob: 28.88% Want
48. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
49. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
50. Crypto: 27.63% Want
51. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
52. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
53. Thrall: 26.50% Want
54. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
55. Tracer: 22.73% Want
56. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
57. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
58. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
59. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
60. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview

Takeaways: The Knight getting a Mii Costume is straight up the single most likely thing we've ever rated. In addition, Lloyd is no longer alone in being more expected than desired, as more than a few want to see an indie join the fray and not get Mii'd. If I could predict wants, I don't think I would've been right with Gex. I'm honestly surprised he did worse than a Mii Costume, especially a Mii Costume of a somewhat popular request. Not in terms of chance, though, he did about right.

Wait, Bendy? Why?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Wait, Bendy? Why?

The series creator revealed on Twitter that they have no way of approaching Nintendo to even consider negotiations, effectively deconfirming him. I can try and find the original tweet, if you want proof.

 

[Cadillac]

The series creator revealed on Twitter that they have no way of approaching Nintendo to even consider negotiations, effectively deconfirming him. I can try and find the original tweet, if you want proof.

Oof ok, that's one out

 

[Ninjaed]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on Chun-Li. However, I want to ask, if they decide to add a Street Fighter character to represent the post-SFII era, why would they go with Chun-Li and not someone from that era, like Alex or even Rashid? I'm pretty sure I saw someone bring that up in Chun-Li's favor, and while I don't see why not, I also want more elaboration.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

Damn, now I almost want Rashid in Smash, or rather his theme. Raaaashiiiidooooo!!

 

[Sari]

So based on the results of the ARM poll I posted, we will be rating all of the 15 ARMS characters as well as 2 ARMS concepts throughout April and May.

Spoiler: Results

At the start of each new rating week will be a day for ARMS. So for this week, we'll continue the current rating schedule and then after Bubsy's rating we'll do day 1 of ARMS ratings. Once that day is over, we'll do a week of the top nominated characters and start the following week with with day 2 of ARMS ratings. Rinse and repeat.

The ARMS days will be as follows so plan accordingly:

Spoiler: ARMS Schedule

Day 1:
Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, and Ninjara

Day 2:
Min Min, Master Mummy, and Mechanica

Day 3:
Twintelle, Bite & Barq, and Kid Cobra

Day 4:
Helix, Max Brass, Misango, and Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts

Day 5:
Dr. Coyle, Lola Pop, Springton, and Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)

-----

Day over.

Rate Hornet from Hollow Knight.

Predict Gnar from League of Legends.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the mood for today's character:

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Music

 

[Jomosensual]

Hornet

Chance 5 - I can see a path here. Like I just said a few days ago, Team Cherry is super popular with Nintendo and it isn't inconceivable that they give them the first ever indie spot to promote Silksong since the Hollow Knight series really seems like one they're adopting and their main new indie. However, I'm not going to bet on an indie character being playable in Ultimate until it actually happens.

Want 70 - I'd love this. I really want Hollow Knight to get a playable rep in Smash and think it's a deserving indie game/series. Kinda want the Knight more just because I have a better grasp on what the moveset would be but Hornet first doesn't bother me at all

Predictions
Gnar - 6%

Noms
Guardian x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Hornet
Chance: 5%
So, just a theory. Hornet really does not fit any of the Mii Fighters. So what if Hollow Knight was the costume and Hornet was playable. Likely, hell no. But it is possible. Also Hollow Knight sold really well on Switch E-Shop. Switch owners know who Hornet is.


Want: 60%
I like Hollow Knight and I want more info on Silksong. Gonna get around to finishing it, my backlog is huge right now and Dragon Quest isn't doing that any favors.

Predict: Gnar 10.5%

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Perkilator]

Not to be confused with Wasp from Empty Soldier
Abstain. Like I said before, not very familiar with Hollow Knight.

Gnar: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Git gud
Chance: 0.1%
I guess she'd be Silksong promotion but the release date of that game is really uncertain right now. Team Cherry even confirmed the game likely not releasing till atleast late 202, if not later due to multiple problems. FP2 might already end before then and Sakurai may not be able to get the full graspon how Hornet supposed to play that way. Not that I think Nintendo would try making a third-party character a "promotional pick", Team Cherry would likely have a say in the matter and I think they would go for the character from the game that has already sold millions and put them on the map.

Want: 0%
No offense to Hornet, I'm definitely looking forward to Silksong. The Knight is just simply the way more sensible pick, since OG Hollow Knight is the game everybody is already familiar with. Even from an aesthetic and playstyle standpoint, the soul and void powers of the Knight are just more appealing to me than Hornets throwing needle. I mean, Hornet would completely mess up everybody's moveset list for the Knight, including mine, which wouldn't be fun.

Gnar: 1.15%
Alucard x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Hornet

Chance: 0%
As sure as I am that we'll get a mii costume for Hollow Knight, I'm also quite certain we won't get a fighter from that game. Getting one or the other will be mutually exclusive I'm afraid, and given how Sans and Cuphead got costumes... Anyway, same deal as with other previous indies.

Want: abstain
I don't know if I'd like it or not... I do know I'd rather have other candidates but could be fun too... so yeah, I dunno.

Predictions: Gnar - 1%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Hornet

Abstain. I'm not sure how to feel about this situation. Hornet could be a promotional pick for Silksong, but we could still get Hollow Knight. Or maybe Hollow Knight gets a Mii costume while Hornet becomes playable. But would they really choose Hornet over Hollow Knight? That seems wrong but given how we have situations where we have the protagonist from sequels be the main character instead of the main character from the first game, it's possible. Though either way I don't see Hornet as being very likely with how indie characters are getting Mii costume'd. As for want, I know Hornet was a big character in the first game, but again I haven't played it.

Prediction: Gnar - 2.25%

Noms: Contra rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hudson Hornet

Double zeroes. I don't see a universe where we get a character from Hollow Knight and it isn't the Knight. I don't see us getting a character from this series period, I think it's too recent and made less of an impact than other indie games that got shafted. I know that Hornet is the protagonist of Silksong, but there's a problem there. They're not gonna have an indie shill pick, that's ridiculous, of all the things to promote through a fighter, it wouldn't be an indie game they don't own.

Gnar predictions: 0.81%
Noms: Earthworm Jim x5

 

[Sari]

Hornet

Chance: 0.1%
The Knight is the main character of Hollow Knight so I don't see why Hornet would get in even with her being the star of the new game. It'd be like Plague Knight getting in over Shovel Knight or Alex getting in over Ryu. Not to mention they are still indies and at this rate the most content I'm expecting from Hollow Knight in general is a Mii Costume + song.

Want: Abstain
I have still yet to play Hollow Knight so I won't comment.

Gnar chance prediction: 0.95%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Chun-Li pre-Hornet

Alucard (Castlevania) x110
Sirfetch'd x105
Concept: New Zelda character x98
Concept: Contra rep x85
Minato Arisato x85
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x81
Decidueye x80
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x80
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x80
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x80
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Meowth x75
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Brian (Quest 64) x70
Junko & Monokuma x70
Earthworm Jim x65
Concept: DLC music packs x60
Axel Stone x60
Concept: Level-5 rep x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x40
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x40
Boss: Ender Dragon x37
Terra Branford x35
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Guardian (Destiny) x25
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x25
[Rerate] Steve x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x20
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x10
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x7
Stage: Bowser's Castle x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
3 Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2

Contra rep and Minato Arisato pass Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable and Decidueye, take fourth place. Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable also barely edges out Decidueye and steals sixth place. But the big news of the day is the concepts A character who isn't the star of their own game, Gen 8 Pokémon, Dragalia Lost rep, and Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) all joining the top seven, tied with Decidueye.

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e), Guardian, Baldi, and Steve leave the under 25 club.

Two new concepts today, both with 2 noms: A Pokémon Trainer who fights, and A fighter who uses all kicks.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played Hollow Knight.

I'm gonna try predictions for once: Gnar... I'm gonna be real, I've never heard of him, but I'm guessing someone thinks they have some chance, so... 0.5%. But I'm probably gonna be wrong.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[amageish]

Hornet

Chance: 0.5%. I feel like indie characters are still on the table, but I don't see why they'd pick Hornet over Hollow Knight? They have franchises represented by not-the-original protagonist, but those tend to be outliers when the original game just isn't as iconic as the current one (no offense intended to Boy with Earring, the actual name used to refer to the Persona 1 protagonist). Silksong isn't out yet and it'd be a bit of a gamble to assume that it'll do significantly better then Hollow Knight in terms of reception. It's possible, but still.

Want: Abstain. Hollow Knight looks pretty, but I'm not a huge Metroidvania fan. I'd like both an indie character and a female character, but I have no attachment to Hornet beyond those large categories.

Gnar Prediction: 3%.

Noms: Level-5 Rep x 5

 

[Ridrool64]

The evil version of a bee

Chance: 0%. There's a Knight sized problem in Hornet's way that won't budge. We have no reason to assume that Sakurai knows anything more about Silksong than we do so it's very unlikely he'd be able to make a moveset, unless he based Hornet on her boss appearances. Why would Nintendo not choose the more well known character of the two, the one who is a known success? For all they know the game could be complete **** (it probably won't be, And everybody's rallying around the Knight, so Hornet doesn't even have the fan demand angle. It seems like a bizarre way to drum up hype for Silksong when simply the Knight alone could do that, regardless of their presence.

Want: 10%. People have been asking for the Knight... a lot. There's a bunch of moveset concepts out there, and while here they ended up in the lower half, we tend to have a bias towards winners (with a few exceptions). This would pretty much kick the Knight out of the running entirely. I don't see why Hornet deserves a position as precious as "first indie character to be playable in Smash" without having truly earned it yet. It'd be like, if Balrog got in before Quote, or Flandre got in before Reimu, or Risky Boots got in before Shantae, just because a Balrog/Flandre/Risky Boots spinoff-sequel was announced. That's ridiculous. And don't even try to tell me Hornet is on a level approaching Sans, perhaps the only character who could have a legitimate shot due to his notoriety going farther and wider than many characters here.

DLC Music x 10. Gonna get this up there in a few cycles. Abstaining on a Gnar prediction.

 

[Cadillac]

Hornet

Chance: 6%
Maybe. Maybe not. She is the protagonist of the upcoming game, and Nintendo seems to love Team Cherry. Given that they put Silksong in the roadmap, we might get her with the release date of Silksong. What might make her more likely than Knight is, her style is different with the Knight. Sure she has Silk meter which is similar to Knight's Soul meter, but she has more things: tools. If she was similar to the Knight with just some Silk magic and charms, then I would've chosen the Knight with no hesitation. However in the trailer we can see there are lots of tools that does things what Knight's charms can't. Throwing knives, syringe, bombs, throwing sawblades, and other unseen ones. And given how acrobatic she is, her playstyle really differs from the Knight. Also it feels weird for me to promote a game where the protagonist of that game is not playable. Back when we got Heroes was to promote DQ11. Knight's more iconic and popular, but it's like putting Erdrick as a fighter just because he's iconic and saying "And also check out this new DQ game where this unplayable character is the main character!" For those who thinks "But the game could be terrible! Why would they risk it?" Byleth was chosen way before the game was released. They didn't know how the game would turn out. Yet, they chose them and waited. And given that it's Nintendo and they're willing to do the most controversial things for money, I can see her happening, maybe.

Want: 100%
I'm the person who nominated her, so it's gotta be 100% for me. Her and Isaac are literally my only wants. An indie female character with great moveset potential, great lore, stage potential, tons of music to bring... there's bunch of good things. I originally wanted the Knight, but then Silksong came around and I saw how she played, I started rooting for her. There's also a part of me that really hates the 'Sans and Cuphead didn't get in, so no one can' argument, so there's that. It just feels like the AT/spirit argument during FP1, where someone would bring up an AT and people would instantly shut it down with "They're an AT. Not happening." or bring up a spirit and then people say "They're a spirit. Get over it." Now it's "(Insert indie character here) seems cool." "Sans and Cuphead are more popular, and even they only got in as costumes. They're not happening." They say it's impossible, but what's impossible other than Goku joining the roster? It's a wall ready to be broken anytime, but people are not letting go of it.

Edit: I forgot to nom. I'm dumb.

Gnar: 1%

Noms: Saki Amamiya: x5

 

[BowserKing]

Hornet

Chance: 5%. Chances are, Hollow Knight would have to get in first in order for Hornet to get in. Also I'm pretty sure that competition would totally make her not get a chance. While it is not impossible, she is going to wait until Hollow Knight gets in.

Want: 50%. She could be a fun character to play as. But again, seeing her get in before Hollow Knight is a big stretch, and if it does happen, I will be surprised. Either way, she could have a chance, and would be fun, but Hollow Knight is a more likely fighter to get in.

Prediction: Gnar: 5%

Noms: 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle and 2 for Black Shadow

 

[NintenRob]

Hornet

Double 0

I know she'll be the star of the new hollowknight game. But if we get anyone from the franchise, surely it should be the knight. And honestly I doubt anyone from this franchise will get in. Maybe a Mii Costume with a song but we'll have to wait and see

Nominate someone who is not the star of their own game x5

Predictions Gnar 0%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Also it feels weird for me to promote a game where the protagonist of that game is not playable.

I think the idea is more that they wouldn't promote Silksong through a fighter, period.

Back when we got Heroes was to promote DQ11. Knight's more iconic and popular, but it's like putting Erdrick as a fighter just because he's iconic and saying "And also check out this new DQ game where this unplayable character is the main character!"

I mean, that's a bad example because Erdrick did get in. And honestly, while they did make the Luminary the default to promote DQXI, I'm pretty certain that if they could have only picked one DQ hero, it would have been Erdrick. The guy's an institution in Japan, he would have been a really egregious exclusion.

Same when they added Fire Emblem to promote it way back in Melee. They added Roy to promote his game, sure, but as a clone of Marth. Marth not being in was never in discussion.

For those who thinks "But the game could be terrible! Why would they risk it?" Byleth was chosen way before the game was released.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses is a Nintendo game. It's in their best interest to advertise it (hell, especially if it's bad, as if they can't sell it on quality they can sell it on "starring this guy from Smash!"). Silksong isn't a Nintendo game, and it hardly benefits them to have their game associated with bad product - especially because the backlash for such an obvious shill pick doesn't gain them anything, unlike Fire Emblem, where backlash or not, they're growing their franchise.

 

[3DSNinja]

Hornet:
Chance: 0%: She ain't happening as a shill pick. Knight is way more iconic and while Team Cherry is chummy with Nintendo, they would probably push for The Knight to be playable and not Hornet.
Want:75%: I like her character and she could have a unique moveset. But the Knight would be far more interesting and since I haven't played Silksong I can't speak for it's quality whereas I already know Hollow Knight is an amazing game.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[Cadillac]

I think the idea is more that they wouldn't promote Silksong through a fighter, period.

I mean, that's a bad example because Erdrick did get in. And honestly, while they did make the Luminary the default to promote DQXI, I'm pretty certain that if they could have only picked one DQ hero, it would have been Erdrick. The guy's an institution in Japan, he would have been a really egregious exclusion.

Same when they added Fire Emblem to promote it way back in Melee. They added Roy to promote his game, sure, but as a clone of Marth. Marth not being in was never in discussion.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses is a Nintendo game. It's in their best interest to advertise it (hell, especially if it's bad, as if they can't sell it on quality they can sell it on "starring this guy from Smash!"). Silksong isn't a Nintendo game, and it hardly benefits them to have their game associated with bad product - especially because the backlash for such an obvious shill pick doesn't gain them anything, unlike Fire Emblem, where backlash or not, they're growing their franchise.

Those are good points, and I can't say anything about that.
Seeing all these zeros on chances and wants... I guess I was delusional about thinking that she'll get in as a playable.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Hornet, since a lot of the logic for the Hollow Knight costume applies to Hornet as well. Though, Hornet has the added issue of not being the main character of her franchise. True, she'll be the protagonist of Silksong, but I can't see Sakurai or Nintendo going for her before the Knight himself. As great as Hornet is, the Knight is still the face of the franchise. Thohgu I have no experience with Hollow Knight so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x5

Predictions:
Gnar - 2.67%