Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

Book of Mario

Chance: Abstain

Honestly, I got nothing to say about his chances at the moment, so I'll abstain on that and talk more about Pap Mario in the Want Rating.

Want: 49%

While there's a lot of other characters I want over him, I wouldn't mind seeing Paper Mario become playable. I've played TTYD and Super Paper Mario and really enjoyed those games (especially SPM cause the story got me thinking a lot about the ending at the time). The Paper Mario games don't have anything that wouldn't fit with the style of Smash, so I'd say why not? If we're gonna get an apparent Spirit Promotion, Paper Mario would be a solid pick and certainly 1 of the better Mario characters to add to Ultimate.
--------------------
Predictions:
Reporter and Wrestler: 2.5%
--------------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5

 

[Calamitas]

Since he'd be DLC, would that make him Pay-per Mario?

Chance: 15%
I suppose I could see it happen. The Paper Mario series is one of the most popular Mario spin-offs not named Mario Kart, has had installments on every Nintendo console since the N64, and decent fan support. But on the other hand, the series has received very little actual acknowledgement from Nintendo, who, as we should keep in mind, are still the ones picking the character, even if Sakurai ultimately picks a character from their choices. I just really doubt that they'd even consider Paper Mario when there's other characters that are more directly related to the "main" Mario games.

Want: 35%
I only ever played the "lesser" half of the series from Super to Colour Splash (and yes, I know that Super is in that arguable grey area of quality in the general consensus), but sure, why not. I'm not really all that crazy for his moveset potential, but I wouldn't be opposed.

Nominating Concept: New Zelda character x5

Predicting Reporter and Wrestler to get around 1.39%.

 

[3DSNinja]

I only ever played the "lesser" half of the series from Super

No.
It's not considered lesser by any means.
In fact, Super Paper Mario is my favorite of all the Mario RPG's, including SMRPG and every M & L game, and has definently the best OST out of them all. It isn't lesser by any means, just different.

 

[Ninjaed]

Since he'd be DLC, would that make him Pay-per Mario?

I couldn't help but laugh at this. Nice one!

 

[warpenguin55]

oh ffs I was typing a really long reply and i lost it. Use this as a lesson, if you're gonna type a massive reply, use word or notepad or google drive and copy paste it from there

 

[Calamitas]

No.
It's not considered lesser by any means.
In fact, Super Paper Mario is my favorite of all the Mario RPG's, including SMRPG and every M & L game, and has definently the best OST out of them all. It isn't lesser by any means, just different.

I was mostly talking about Sticker Star and Colour Splash with that statement, y'know.

 

[Cadillac]

For me, Mario already have lots of fighters. I want underrepresented/unrepresented franchises to take up the dlc.

 

[warpenguin55]

Seriously?

"Oh, they didn't put Bandana Dee in base game, he's a bad roster choice."
That's the dumbest f****** reasoning i've ever heard.
Come up with an actual reason to not want Paper Mario.

So first, I want get BWD out of the way. He's nothing more than an example here. The first character that popped into my mind that somewhat fit my point. This isn't his day, so saying anything about him past that is irrelevant.

Getting back to my the topic at hand. You want an "actual reason", here's one for you. Paper Mario doesn't deserve to be a DLC character in Smash Ultimate. This series and this character do not matter at all to the developers of Smash and there are much better picks than him.

Paper Mario has existed for 20 years. You know what that's got him? Collectables and a stage nobody plays on. Shame, because I actually do like that stage. Collectables really do not mean jack, literally every Nintendo series gets them. Paper Mario has less non collectable representation in any given Smash game than F-Zero and Mother, 2 completely dead franchises. Even Electroplankton was thought to be more important than Paper Mario. Hanenbow came before Paper Mario even got a stage. That should be damming enough.

If being thought less important than Electroplankton wasn't enough to prove my point let's compare Paper Mario to the characters in fighters pass 1. These characters represent franchises that matter to game as a whole. Joker reps Persona, a wildly successful and criticly love franchise. Persona has been giving us constant hits since the PS2 was a thing. Hero represents Dragon Quest, which is THE gaming franchise in Japan. They had to make it a law that Dragon Quest had to be released on weekends due to the amount of people skipping work to play it. Banjo-Kazooie was a staple series of many gamers as a child. Fatal Fury was sited by Sakurai as being one the inspirations behind Smash, and many fighting games. Byleth... Byleth was... ok 4/5 is still pretty good. I really hope FE3H is a turning point in the franchise. It's one of my favorite switch games and in my top 5 favorite games. The ARMS rep doesn't fit the mold(doesn't have to, I only specified FP1 characters) and is clearly either a promo pick for a new game or a case of the devs going back for a character they really wanted. The Paper Mario series is not anywhere close to being on the same level as Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, or Fatal Fury. There is no argument to be had on this point. Mario actually has a character close to this caliber in Geno, who is boosted up by his actually flipping insane amounts of fan demand. Anyone who would put Paper Mario in instead of Geno is actually trolling. You can argue all you want about Paper Mario being better than FE or ARMS, but at the end of the day, Nintendo sees potential in these 2 series.

If Figthers Pass 2 is going to be anything like Fighters Pass 1, Paper Mario does not belong. If Paper Mario was worth it, he would have been here already. My standards for a DLC character higher than a 3 time base roster reject. There are staggering amounts of better options than him, and I would legitimately be pissed if Paper Mario got in. Call it B.S, call it stupid, call it a fake reason or whatever you want, at the end of the day, Paper Mario still isn't a good DLC pick

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Reporter & Wrestler from Rhythm Heaven.

Predict Ryo Hazuki from Shenmue.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Rhythm Heaven mood:

Spoiler: Rhythm Heaven Music

 

[DanganZilla5]

Reporter and Wrestler

Abstain. I don't know anything about this duo.

Prediction: Ryo - 5.65%

Noms: Contra rep x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ah nuts, I just missed Paper by under an hour. That's what I get for letting someone else use my PC for the entire day.

Rhythm Reporter & Wrestler
Chance: 0.5%
Rhythm Heaven is one of the biggest Nintendo franchises not included. Notably unlike a lot of fan requests it's from a series that isn't currently dead...well presuming you don't write off a series as being dead if it doesn't have a new game in four years. It does pretty well in Japan and Sm4sh even had some rumours about the Chorus Men.

That said, there's plenty in Reporter & Wrestler's way:
Wrestler has to compete with that there's already a wrestler newcomer in Ultimate in the form of Incineroar. Yes, we're getting a second boxer and have two ninjas but it's rare to see two characters debut in the same game that fit such a similar archetype, and unlike the tiger, Wrestler really only wrestles...less they put him as a Kitchen Sink for all things RH.

Both have to compete with the fact that even if RH does get a character there's plenty of other choices such as fellow combat enthusiast Karate Joe, the many faces of the franchise such as Beat Girl, Marshall, Tibby, etc and of course the aforementioned Chorus Men.

On top of that Reporter & Wrestler have other Nintendo IPs that came out recently to deal with; Xenoblade is getting heavy promotion for Shulk's rerelease and Xenoblade 2 fits into the same 'missed the boat by a second' scenario as ARMS. Add onto that fellow new Switch successes Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure and even more successful older IPs like yesterday's topic; Paper Mario and couple with that there may be some third parties in the pass and I can't really see these two being picked over everything else.

Want: 40%
Back in the days of Sm4sh, this pair was my preferred RH characters of choice and ranked a bit higher in want for myself. However we've had tons of games I'd like to see get in more both from pre-existing franchises and newer IPs and Incineroar (and the modfied modern Smash Bowser to a lesser extent) already scratch my Wrestler itch.

Their victory screen is obvious though and I can really picture it.

Prediction: Ryo: 7.2%

 

[Sari]

"Tiki tiki tiki desu ka?"

Chance: 0.1%
The Rhythm Heaven series has been on hiatus for nearly 5 years now so I don't see us getting a playable character anytime soon especially when there are more popular first party picks to choose from. Even if we did get a RH character, Chorus Kids and Karate Joe would definitely have priority over Reporter & Wrestler for being much more popular and prominent within the series.

Want: 15%
Eh, I wouldn't be too upset over this happening. It's just that there are a ton of other characters I'd want instead. Plus other RH characters such as Chorus Kids and Rhythm Girl would definitely be better choices to represent the series.

Ryo chance prediction: 6.18%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Ah nuts, I just missed Paper by under an hour. That's what I get for letting someone else use my PC for the entire day.

If it's under an hour, you can still vote. It'll count. Dunno about now though...

-
Reporter & Wrestler

Chance: 0%
I know little about the series but I've at least seen or heard of the Chorus Kids or Karate Joe. Never Reporter & Wrestler. If they aren't even the most prominent or iconic in their own series, no chance for them to ever make it in in the base roster before their betters, let alone as DLC.

Want: 0%
Again, I know little about it and that's because it never quite appealed to me. Add that to a comparatively obscure character and yeah. Me no gusto.

Predictions: Ryo Hazuki - 8%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5

 

[BowserKing]

Reporter and Wrestler

Chance: 10%. Chances are if we get a Rhythem Heaven Rep, it will be Chorus Kids or Karate Joe, plus Incineroar is representing the Wrestling motive, but it is not impossible. The Reporter would also be an advantage. Thing is, there is still competition between many fighters, but we have been surprised before, so who knows.

Want: 50%. While I'd prefer it if Chorus Kids or Karate Joe got in, the Reporter and Wrestler would be a unique combo and they would be fun to play as. I can see the Reporter interviewing fighters like Little Mac and Samus before the fight, and the Wrestler challenging Incineroar and Bowser for a Battle as well. I think the duo would be a unique and and overall, an interesting choice.

Prediction: Ryo (10%)

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)

Note: This is the first time I'm typing it on my IPad

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

"Wulladubbadubba izzat true?"
"ECH!"
Chance: 0.5%
Rhythm Heaven hasn't had a game in four years and likely won't be getting one anytime soon according to Tsunku, making a representitive from that series likely not a priority. Then again, I certainly also didn't expect Nintendo to promote an almost three year old fighting game presumed dead so who knows. The series is decently popular in Japan and leaks and datamines suggests there were plans for a RH character to appear in Smash 4, which Nintendo themselves would probably have knowledge of. The biggest obstacle for this duo is competition from within their own series. While I consider their Rhythm game to be one of the most iconic in the series, in the west anyway, it won't top Karate Joe's popularity and mascot status or the fact that Sakurai likely would've went for the Chorus Kids factoring in Gematsu.

Want: 80%
Admittedly not my first choice for a RH rep, that would be Chorus kids, but anyone from that franchise would be fine with me. Their Rhythm game is one of my favourites however. I can also imagine their dynamic in game being highly entertaining.

Ryo: 3.38%
Alucard x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain, haven't played much Rhythm Heaven and never eve heard of these two.

Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain. I know nothing about these two and how they can work.

Ryo Hazuki: 5.7%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. The only thing I know about Rhythm Heaven is the Air Rally theme.

*ba bom bom bom*

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Reporter and Wrestling

Chance 0 - Not even top 3 most requested from a 1st party series that's likely getting nobody in. Really tough for me to see a path for W&R based on that alone, but I also don't think this pass is going to be loaded with 1st party reps like others seem to so this is every lower. Overall, not happening.

Want 0 - Yeah, I'm not interested in this. There's better RH reps. There's better spirit upgrades. Just gonna pass on it.

Predictions
Ryo - 2%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain.
I know absolutely nothing about Rhythm Heaven or how to even start this rating.

Predict: Ryo 4%

Noms:
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) X5
Sirfetch'd X5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Reporter and Wrestler

Chance: 0.5% - Smash 4 would've been the time to bring in a Rhythm Heaven rep (and according to Datamines, they nearly did) as the series was still going strong at the time. But as of now they haven't had a game in four years, and unlike ARMS, Nintendo hasn't pushed the Rhythm Heaven series nearly as hard with advertising. Alongside this is the inter-series competition, having to go up against Karate Joe's iconic mascot status and the much greater fan demand of both him and the Chourus Men. And even after him there are several other reoccurring characters from the franchise that would more than likely be chosen over them. While the Reporter and Wrestler are among the more well-known of the one-offs, I don't think being a meme is going to give them any kind of priority in the eyes of the developers.

Want: 15% - I haven't played much of their series, and while they could do something interesting with them, I can't see myself getting very excited for them, especially during the DLC period. Not every DLC needs to be a heavy hitter third party, but in terms of first parties there are much more exciting and important choices. Nonetheless, Rhythm Heaven does deserve representation at some point, and I do hope it eventually receives it!


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone)

Predictions:
Ryo Hazuki - 1.64%

 

[Ridrool64]

This video will be my joke instead.

Chance: 0.5%. Being swamped with competition is one thing. Being from a series currently on the backburner, with no drive for Nintendo to promote it in the current future is another. But I think the big killer here is the fact that Incineroar is already a wrestler, thus taking away what could have made this character totally unique. Thus, I feel the time for the Reporter & Wrestler to get in has passed.

Want: 5%. If I had to pick a character who got popular through internet sharing, I'd take King Harkinian any day. While technically more serious than that, I still don't see any other reason to go with them over, say, Karate Joe (the closest thing to a face) or the Chorus Kids (became the fan favorite due to something I won't debate the legitimacy of). Thus, I wouldn't care. Also Incineroar already took away the edge of a wrestler in Smash.

DLC Music x 5. Ryo has to face two more popular candidates, but I think he's got another problem holding him back. 9.30%, since I expect others to overrate him at least a little bit.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The better version of Incineroar

Chance: 15%

This rating is given under the presumption that we're looking at a majority- or totally-first-party pass. If so, Rhythm Heaven is a series to watch closely. A perennial franchise that gets games on every console since its inception, a cheap one to make (so there's very little incentive not to continue it), and Nintendo's sole footing in a pretty popular casual genre (the Rhythm game). There's yet to be a rhythm game character, and aside from PaRappa, who's owned by PlayStation, the only competition would be franchises like DDR and Beatmania, which don't have much in the way of characters (unless you count Waluigi). So we've got ourselves the frontrunner for the genre. We also know that a Rhythm Heaven character was planned for Smash 4, and got cut, probably because of technical limitations - so we know Sakurai has already considered it. With that in mind, I think Rhythm Heaven could be included in this pass. No stage, very little music (especially for a freakin rhythm game), room to grow with Spirits, the content's there.

Now, will it be the Reporter & Wrestler? Well, I think they're the third in line for the series, but unfortunately for them the first two are the titans that are the Chorus Kids and Karate Joe. But who knows, maybe Sakurai didn't like what he had with the Chorus Kids and wants to go another way.

Want: 95%
This is one of my favorite RH minigames, and probably my favorite character designs in the series. They're such a wacky duo that I'd like to see them just for that. But I do think the other 2 are better picks, hence the not-100% score.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Ryo Hazuki prediction: oh boy, tomorrow's Ryo's day! Can't wait for everyone to call it a dead series even though it got a new game a year ago! 11%

So first, I want get BWD out of the way. He's nothing more than an example here. The first character that popped into my mind that somewhat fit my point. This isn't his day, so saying anything about him past that is irrelevant.

Getting back to my the topic at hand. You want an "actual reason", here's one for you. Paper Mario doesn't deserve to be a DLC character in Smash Ultimate. This series and this character do not matter at all to the developers of Smash and there are much better picks than him.

Paper Mario has existed for 20 years. You know what that's got him? Collectables and a stage nobody plays on. Shame, because I actually do like that stage. Collectables really do not mean jack, literally every Nintendo series gets them. Paper Mario has less non collectable representation in any given Smash game than F-Zero and Mother, 2 completely dead franchises. Even Electroplankton was thought to be more important than Paper Mario. Hanenbow came before Paper Mario even got a stage. That should be damming enough.

If being thought less important than Electroplankton wasn't enough to prove my point let's compare Paper Mario to the characters in fighters pass 1. These characters represent franchises that matter to game as a whole. Joker reps Persona, a wildly successful and criticly love franchise. Persona has been giving us constant hits since the PS2 was a thing. Hero represents Dragon Quest, which is THE gaming franchise in Japan. They had to make it a law that Dragon Quest had to be released on weekends due to the amount of people skipping work to play it. Banjo-Kazooie was a staple series of many gamers as a child. Fatal Fury was sited by Sakurai as being one the inspirations behind Smash, and many fighting games. Byleth... Byleth was... ok 4/5 is still pretty good. I really hope FE3H is a turning point in the franchise. It's one of my favorite switch games and in my top 5 favorite games. The ARMS rep doesn't fit the mold(doesn't have to, I only specified FP1 characters) and is clearly either a promo pick for a new game or a case of the devs going back for a character they really wanted. The Paper Mario series is not anywhere close to being on the same level as Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, or Fatal Fury. There is no argument to be had on this point. Mario actually has a character close to this caliber in Geno, who is boosted up by his actually flipping insane amounts of fan demand. Anyone who would put Paper Mario in instead of Geno is actually trolling. You can argue all you want about Paper Mario being better than FE or ARMS, but at the end of the day, Nintendo sees potential in these 2 series.

If Figthers Pass 2 is going to be anything like Fighters Pass 1, Paper Mario does not belong. If Paper Mario was worth it, he would have been here already. My standards for a DLC character higher than a 3 time base roster reject. There are staggering amounts of better options than him, and I would legitimately be pissed if Paper Mario got in. Call it B.S, call it stupid, call it a fake reason or whatever you want, at the end of the day, Paper Mario still isn't a good DLC pick

"No character deserves to get in because the devs saw Piranha Plant as more deserving than they are. If they were worth it they would have been in already."

Alright then pack it up guys Smash is canceled forever, anyone who didn't get in yet is a bad choice anyways.

 

[amageish]

Reporter and Wrestler

Chance: 5%. The main way I see this happening is if this pass is designed around Sakurai adding in characters he had previously considered but ultimately dismissed, which is possible given the fact ARMS is starting it off. Rhythm Heaven could have a unique character and could be super fun, but also...

I also think that Rhythm Heaven should be on the Switch!

Everyone make your voices heard!

If it's on the Switch, players can enjoy Rhythm Heaven if they play by themselves or with friends! https://t.co/wK4fQnCCEZ

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) April 8, 2020

...I'm guessing one of the main composers of the franchise publicly saying you need to make your voices heard if you want a new Switch game isn't a great sign for a new game being currently in development. I don't think Rhythm Heaven needs a new game to justify getting in, but it certainly wouldn't hurt. Generally, Smash characters either come from a place of modern relevancy or nostalgia. Characters from the mid-2000s are kind of in an awkward place, as we just haven't seen Sakurai/Nintendo going back to pick up characters who they previously missed from that era. Heck, we still only have one character who debuted on the DS in Smash (Lucario) and he technically had a cameo on the Game Boy Advance first. Rhythm Heaven would be a great first-party to represent this era of Nintendo, but I'm not certain it'd be a priority. That said, the franchise has some fan demand and definitely has potential for a new stage, a plethora of music, and full spirit board, so it checks off those boxes at least...

Then it's a matter of what Rhythm Heaven character would be selected and I'm unsure if the choice would be a wrestler (a character archetype Incineroar was specifically chosen to fill) over other characters. Barista or Marshal or Tibby could represent multiple games at once... Karate Joe would represent one game, like Reporter/Wrestler, but he at least does the fighting moves in his minigame versus Wrestler who always appears post-match...

Also, while I don't think she's especially likely, Cadence does provide some competition for Rhythm Heaven in the rhythm genre. She seems more likely for a Mii Costume, but she currently has no content in Smash in spite of being the titular character of a Zelda spin-off.

Want: 90%. Rhythm Heaven is fun and I'd really take any character as long as it comes with a solid helping of Rhythm Heaven music. I think I'd rather a trick character who pulls out a variety of Rhythm-Heaven-related props (I like this Barista moveset a lot), but I'd take the Reporter/Wrestler duo.

Noms: Level-5 Rep x 5
Predictions: 8%...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Paper Mario pre-Reporter & Wrestler

Gnar (League of Legends) x115
Chun-Li x110
Segata Sanshiro x105
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x95
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x95
Bubsy x90
Falinks x86

100 - 51

Decidueye x80
Alucard (Castlevania) x80
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x77
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: New Zelda character x75
Meowth x74
Concept: Darksiders rep x70
Sirfetch'd x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x55
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x55
Concept: Contra rep x55
Minato Arisato x55
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: DLC music packs x40
Junko & Monokuma x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Terra Branford x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x30
Concept: Level-5 rep x30
Axel Stone x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Returning stages x21
Ahri (League of Legends) x20
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x5
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x5
The Avatar (Ultima) x5
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x5
Stage: Bowser's Castle x3
3 Mage Sisters x2

Chun-Li kicks past Segata Sanshiro, and is now second. Concept: Devolver Digital rep and Hornet are still tied, but they both pass Bubsy and are now vying for the fourth spot.

Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game, Concept: Contra rep, Minato Arisato, and Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) all cross the 50 nom mark.

Axel Stone breaks out of the under 25 club.

Challengers approaching! Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep, The Avatar, Concept: No third parties in this Pass, and Stage: Bowser's Castle all join the noms list, the first three with 5 noms each and the latter with 3. (I'm really digging these new additions so I might help some of these get in the top seven)

YoshiandToad There's a one-hour period after the day ends when you can still post your scores for the last day. So if you had given scores to Paper Mario, you'd have barely squeezed in. By three minutes! That's a shame, but now you know.

 

[warpenguin55]

"No character deserves to get in because the devs saw Piranha Plant as more deserving than they are. If they were worth it they would have been in already."

Alright then pack it up guys Smash is canceled forever, anyone who didn't get in yet is a bad choice anyways.

Nowhere in the post you quoted did mention Piranha Plant. The day is over, I'm not arguing this anymore.

 

[YoshiandToad]

YoshiandToad There's a one-hour period after the day ends when you can still post your scores for the last day. So if you had given scores to Paper Mario, you'd have barely squeezed in. By three minutes! That's a shame, but now you know.

Ah, okay! A shame but I'll remember for next time.

 

[Drason]

Reporter and Wrestler
Chance 10%: Wrestling moveset when Incineroar is there does not bode well for these guys. Then again, as Kevin Garnett said "Anything is Possible". And knowing Sakurai, he's pretty unpredictable.

But being honest it's way more likely for it to be one of the other reps so I'm not holding my breath.

Want: 20%-only played one of the games, only reason for me to want one is the soundtrack. But it's alwaysa nice to see hardcore fans of franchises get their reps.

 

[NintenRob]

"Tiki tiki tiki desu ka?"

Chance: 0.1%
The Rhythm Heaven series has been on hiatus for nearly 5 years now so I don't see us getting a playable character anytime soon especially when there are more popular first party picks to choose from. Even if we did get a RH character, Chorus Kids and Karate Joe would definitely have priority over Reporter & Wrestler for being much more popular and prominent within the series.

Want: 15%
Eh, I wouldn't be too upset over this happening. It's just that there are a ton of other characters I'd want instead. Plus other RH characters such as Chorus Kids and Rhythm Girl would definitely be better choices to represent the series.

Ryo chance prediction: 6.18%

Nominations:
Axel Stone x5

Megamix released in 2015? ugh I hate the passage of time. It's too soon for 3DS games to feel old


As for today, If Rhythm Heaven were to get a character, I think it would be Karate Joe or the Chorus Kids. Those enemies in Smash Run still makes me think, and Gematsu. And it had an icon in the data for playable characters. It's definitely possible Sakurai will one day revisit the idea of this. But as I said I do think it would be wrestler.

Chance 2%
Want 17%

Nominate someone who is not the star of their own game. X5

 

[Sari]

ATTENTION EVERYONE

We are currently discussing how to handle ARMS speculation in this thread.

So far we've come up with three possible options:

1. Have an ARMS rating day each week so we can individually rate all 15 ARMS characters + 2 Concepts (so basically 3-4 ARMS character ratings a week).
2. Have an ARMS themed week at the start of June where we rate the main ARMS characters (the ones that are spirits in Ultimate already) and group everyone else.
3. Have a single ARMS day in June where you just predict what ARMS content to expect including which character(s).

Please answer this small poll so we can get an idea of what you think we should do​

-----

Day over.

Rate Ryo Hazuki from Shenmue.

Predict Big Daddy from Bioshock.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the forklifting mood.

Spoiler: Shenmue Music

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain again. I don't know anything about this character. Hope someone I know gets rated soon. I've been abstaining too much.

Big Daddy: 3.52%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain on Ryo. I'm still burnt out from Paper Mario's day.

Predict: Big Daddy 4%

Nom: Sirfetch'd x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Wrestler and Reporter

Chance - 0.05% - Even if Rhythm Heaven were to get a character, there are too many better candidates to represent the series. Monkeys are ubiquitous, Karate Joe appears in every game in the series and has the honor of being the first game in the series before becoming tredition to end the game on him, and so on. While they may be the most famous ones, as time has shown that typically not the first character chosen.

Want - 50% - I'll take it, I guess, but I think Rhythm Heaven has better choices. I guess I got too attached to Karate Joe.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[Ridrool64]

**** I'm out of jokes.

Chance: 10% on a good day. Firstly, he's not pushed like Arle is and isn't pushed like Kiryu is, his series being dormant for about... say, over a decade and a half? So right now he has neither's fan demand nor their relevance. While Shenmue did get a new game that just came out in November last year, in theory making him relevant, it didn't do very hot amongst people who weren't fans of the series to begin with, nor did it perform that well financially. Overall not only does SEGA have bigger fish to fry, but I think he might've blown it. It's also both too new and to old to have helped him land a spot with Nintendo so he'd have to make it in spite of it. And while the idea he can't have a cohesive moveset (below) is my own, I could see that being a potential roadblock to him when it comes to his special moves. I'll give him 10% because I could only really see it happening if neither the Puyo Puyo/Yakuza teams want anything to do with Smash (though if that happens then I think SEGA's probably bowing out of Volume 2 entirely, that or it's back to Atlus), but otherwise, not really. Best bet is either a Mii Costume or a Spirit Event. Unless it turns out that Sakurai and Suzuki are total bros who want to do this, then I really don't see what's gonna get him in Smash.

Also it's worth noting that Shenmue has never come out on Nintendo consoles ever, not even in spinoffs. I think that's gonna happen someday, but likely with something like Halo before Shenmue simply because the former is such a big deal.

Want: 0%. It's not even about Arle at that point (she does play a big role, but I'd probably still give him a 0% even if I didn't want her), it's the fact that he's a regular guy and to put him into Smash you kinda have to pretend that's not the case. And considering how Shenmue was, and somewhat still is, is lauded for how lifelike it is, at least in its gameplay if not so much its artstyle, having him do stuff like double jump or do the Screw Attack, use the Superspicy Curry, swing Hammers and stuff like that, all of it would feel bizarre and out of place on him because unlike everybody else, his series tries to have some realistic design, and to me that's irreconcilable. Basically every other series in Smash is unrealistic in some way, shape, or form, some (Super Mario Bros.) being more obvious than others (Metal Gear is still plenty fantastical but it's a lot more realistic than the others). In addition, while I can envision his normals maybe working out pretty well due to his status as a martial artist, his specials would either need to be made up or hodge-podges of stuff that happens in his game that would ruin any sense of cohesion in the moveset (why would he have a forklift in his moveset? What theming does it provide? What's his recovery special?), and then what would he do for a Final Smash? Shenmue is a revolutionary title, doesn't mean it needs a Smash character with little to offer that would arguably be a disservice to the game. It might sound insulting, but hey, to me it's the case. While I've seen the game in action through let's plays, never played it myself and I don't remember because it's been ages, I don't even remember who played it. I did like what I saw, though.

SNES-era FF rep x 5. Big Daddy... I have no clue what people will rate Bioshock, actually. 3.20%.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Abstaining on Ryo, though he's possible given his legacy and popularity among SEGA fans. Though the game largely shares the same niche of the now much bigger Yakuza series, so in a way it feels like a Banjo vs. Steve sort of deal. So it really depends on what Sakurai wants to go for. Also factoring in is Ryo's lack of Nintendo history, which even Kiryu has a tiny bit of.


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage (with music) x5

Predictions:
Big Daddy - 5.72%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I've never played Shenmue.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Perkilator]

Not to be confused with Ryo Sakazaki
Abstain again. I know jack squat about Shenmue.

Also, did I seriously miss “if he didn’t get in then, he’s a bad choice” for Paper Mario? Ah, well that day’s over. No point beating a dead horse.

Big Daddy: 5%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Excuse me
Chance: 0%
Shenmue has been dormant for almost two decades and the series was never really all that successful, the recent third entry even tanking critically and sales wise, making the future for that franchise more bleak than ever before. Besides there also being way more sensible SEGA picks such as Arle, Kiryu or even a second Sonic rep, and Shenmue having no Nintendo presence, makes me think we definitely won't see Ryo as a fighter.

Want: 1%
One pity percent for the potential Vinesauce Joel reaction it would give but Ryo wouldn't do much for me. I've never played the series but I do not have anything against it. I'm even keeping up with Joel's streams so I'm very much aware of the synopsis and how the games play. And I didn't see any fighter material.

My main issue with Ryo being, what would he do? The dude definitely knows how to brawl, sure, but what would he bring to the table that Terry or the Street Fighters haven't, since all of his in game attacks are pretty standard martial art moves he uses against thugs on occasion? The combat in Shenmue is really just secondary to everything else you do in the game. Asking people questions, searching for clues, doing chores, all mundane stuff that can't really be implemented into a moveset while trying to do Ryo and his series justice. Having him use his basic punches and kicks for his normals but then having him drive a forklift at unusual speeds as a Final Smash just does sound right to me. Stuff like that may work with something like Yakuza, which has much more wilder and chaotic combat and takes itself less seriously, but not with the way more grounded in realism Shenmue.

I see it as a lose lose scenario. Stick to Ryo's basic martial arts and you'd have an insanely boring and generic fighter, try forcing in a forklift and/or "accidental" attacks on top of that and we'd have an of putting moveset that's inconsistent with itself.

So yeah, I don't think Ryo's fit for this. And that's okay. Ryo doesn't have time to mess around with Mario, Sonic, Pikachu or Cloud. He's to busy with thinking about crushing Lan Di's skull with a forklift.

Big Daddy: 1.66%
Alucard x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Ryo

Chance 0 - Inactive series from Sega. Arle is more requested, Sonic characters are more requested, Kiryu is more popular and well known. Not really a reason this character would get picked. I did find out he was in an ESPN NFL game though so that's pretty sick

Want 0 - Not even a top 5 Sega character for my wants. No interest in seeing him in Smash.

Predictions
Big Daddy 9%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

"I'm looking for some sailors"

Chance: 13%
Ryo is the protagonist of the celebrated Shenmue trilogy, home of games that were completely revolutionary for their time. This is a franchise that only recently saw a comeback, with a compilation and the release of Shenmue III. It's definitely a famous franchise in Sega's stable, and one with a huge cult following. Plus, with Ryo's martial arts and the abundance of minigames, I think it's very easy to assemble a moveset for him (the forklift is a must).

However, while Ryo has made appearances on Nintendo consoles in the Sonic & All-Stars Racing games and Project X Zone 2, the Shenmue series itself has not. This puts Ryo in the same category as 2B and Master Chief. I don't think it's an impossibility, but it does kinda dock his odds because it's still unprecedented.

Want: 85%
What can I say, I love Shenmue. Once you get past (or get into) the dodgy voice acting, you'll find an epic tale of revenge with some incredibly engrossing mechanics. He isn't my most wanted or anything close to that, but if a Smash trailer began with those instantly recognizable Shenmue chimes I'd be pretty hype.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
Big Daddy prediction: 19.7%