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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Freddy Fazbear x290
Kazuma Kiryu x235
The Blob (De Blob) x200
Crypto x200
Carmen Sandiego x185
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x180
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x170

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Mii Costume: Quote x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
[Rerate] Paper Mario x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Bubsy x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
Decidueye x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Segata Sanshiro x65
Falinks x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Concept: Darksiders rep x50
Gnar (League of Legends) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
Terra Branford x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x25
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x19
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Alucard (Castlevania) x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Concept: Returning stages x7
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

Crypto ties with The Blob for third place.

Mii Costume: Quote gathers over 100 noms.

Falinks crawls past 50 noms.

Echo: Dark Bowser escapes the under 25 club.

Your new concept is Fortnite character, with 5 noms.
Did what I wrote before had to be longer?
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,842
Location
winnipeg
Standalone Stages

Chance: 10%. While we do got a lot of stages, there is some famous stages and places in video games that are absent, like Bowser's Castle, Poke Floats, Pac-Maze or Gangplank Galleon, which is quite surprising. I think there could be room for more stages, and best of all, competition is not as common as the competition between characters. Who knows what stages could show up in the future. We did get stages in Game 4 (including Pirate Ship and Peaches Castle (64)) without bonus fighters, so it is not as far fetched as we think.

Want: 100%. I think there is potential for more stages to appear, both new like Bowser's Castle, or returning like Rainbow Road. This also has the chance of returning soundtracks that are absent from this game. Of course the main problem is that most of the stages, even how cool they are, would get banned in tournaments, outside some changes they could make, but that is minor. I totally support new stages.

Echo Fighters

Chance: 15%. They are easier to implement then many other fighters, and they save time as well. And with echoes, we would have more variety in the roaster. The question is who gets in? and who gets to be the echo of who? Outside that, competition is another concern, and not just against other fighters, but each other as well.

Want: 100%. I also totally support Echoes, and my main choices of Echo Fighters are Dark Bowser (:ultbowser:), Dark Meta Knight (:ultmetaknight:), Dixie Kong (:ultdiddy:), Shadow (:ultsonic:) and Octoling (:ultinkling:), but I also think Black Shadow, Pokémon Rival, Tom Nook and Impa would be nice choices. Overall, Echo Fighters are a great choice for time saving characters and they are just as fun as the mains.

Prediction: Shantae (20%), Bomberman (15%) and Shovel Knight (15%)

Noms: 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep
 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
5,340
Location
Australia
NNID
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We'll have have to be nearing the end of this schedule right?

Anyway

Standalone stages
Chance 1%
We're already scheduled to get 6 stages, we already have gotten 5. For this reason I don't think we're getting any more. Although it is possible, we have a lot of time for it, but if that extra time is used for something, I think it might be used for something else
Want: 90%
More stages is always good. Of course the want score is high.

Echoes
Chance 25%
This is higher because of a dumb theory I have. The 6 DLC characters we're gonna get is gonna perfectly square roster when you stack it with echo fighters, but unstack it there's room for four more. And we know there's data for four more characters. I initially thought that we'd get 3 fighter pass sets of 5. But since the second pass has 6 characters, 4 echoes fit it even better.
Want
95%
More characters is always good, of coarse this is high. Who wouldn't want more characters? Dixie (though she should be unique), Impa, Funky, Jeanne, Shadow, Ms Pac-Man, Dark Meta Knight, any Pikmin captain, the Octolings.


Carmen should be fine

I nominate a character who isn't the star of their own game x5

Prediction

Shantae 14%
Bomberman 8%
Shovel Knight 6%
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
We'll have have to be nearing the end of this schedule right?
I'm pretty sure we have two more days. Shantae, Bomberman, Shovel Knight and then the final day which is Amaterasu and Monster Hunter. Then we are back to the usual 7 day rotation.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Yeah, I think you were only 1 or 2 sentences short. Bound to happen when rating 4 characters with very similar reasonings.

The day after this one's the last day before the top 7 gets locked.

That's quite specific.
Ok. If I abstain, does the noms count?
 

jamesster445

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
1,136
Stand Alone Stages
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

The last stand alone stage we got was Mario Maker on Wii U. And I loved it. There are actually a lot of games that I wanted representation through a stage because a character wouldn't have been possible. Daemon x Machina never would've worked as a character, but as a stage absolutely. Sadly I dont see it happening as resources are strictly directed towards the Fighter's Pass.

Echo Fighter Pass
Chance: 50%
Want: abstain

This really depends, if we get like five 'Kens', than absolutely. But I feel like the reality is that were gonna get five 'Daisys'. I'll abstain

Nominations: Lora and Jin x5
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Somewhere else to fight.

Chance: 0%. It's circumstantial, but right now I believe the last 6 stages are coming with the last 6 Fighters. Like, why would they even bother at this point outside of bringing back old stages? While it'd be something to pass the time, I think the only stage that could be brought back and make more than it cost to do so is Planet Zebes because it only needs minor touch-ups. Something like other old stages would probably get such heavy redesigns that it'd be unfeasible. And while Zebes at least has a different layout from Brinstar, literally the size of the Great Fox is all that separates Sector Z from Corneria, the only other stage that wouldn't need ****loads of manhours put into it. And it still wouldn't be easy enough to justify anyway.

Want: 80%. I mean more stages would always be great. I dunno why literally more content than not could possibly get high scores. Maybe it's because it could be seen as a distraction, but I wouldn't count on it being anything but great even if they only did old stages, let alone new ones.

Attack of the clones again

Chance: 0%. Even if we somehow do get more content incoming, I don't think Echoes are on the table. The big problem with them is that they are inherently designed to be bonuses, and selling a pass full of them turns them into Nintendo's big thing regarding publicity due to how much hype the name Super Smash Bros. makes across the waves. That's not gonna look good, selling lesser characters compared to what came earlier. In general, though, I wouldn't count on anything beyond what's already been promised.

Want: As a pass 0%, but I'm gonna rate Echoes in general instead. 100%. Echoes are ridiculously underutilized right now and it almost feels like there wasn't any point to them at this rate. Getting more of them, even ones like Daisy let alone ones like Ken, would be a blessing and really allow for more potential.

Paper Mario x 10, just gonna get him to catch up from the Pokémon stuff. As others expect, Shantae's score will likely be exaggerated by her fanbase. Gonna go with 40.21%. Shovel Knight will have more honest responses, 7.40%. Bomberman... I have no idea what to expect, but somehow I don't think he'll get high marks.
 

Proceleon

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 22, 2015
Messages
463
Location
Yoshi's Island
NNID
Proceleon
3DS FC
2423-2553-2839
Switch FC
SW-6226-7752-8603
A standalone stage is a tall order when you've got 6 already on the way, but Sakurai did say once these Packs are done, the game is complete, finished, over. The chances of them doing anything beyond this is minimal at best.
Chance: 1%
Want: 5%


Echoes were a no-go from from the beginning. When the concept of the Fighter Pass was introduced they went out of their way to specify "We're not talking about echo fighters." So Echoes were never on the table at all.
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
 

Mamboo07

Smash Hero
Joined
Mar 23, 2019
Messages
9,387
Location
Hollow Earth
Standalone Stage (With 6 more on the way, it's unlikely we will get a stage.)
Chance: 0%
Want: 79%
While it seems that a standalone stage as DLC won't happen, it would be nice to see one.
Echo Pass (Same above.)
Chance: 0%
Want: 68%
I love the idea of having an Echo Fighter Pass which seems to be cool, but might not happen.
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Standalone stages

Chance: 0%
Casual smash => have plenty of stages and variations to pick from. Also have Stage Builder.
Competitive smash => still ban stages that were said to have been viable if hazards were ever turned off, so those would be banned as well.
There's no point in wasting time, effort and money in making new stages. Few people would care, thus few people would buy. Better investment can be made elsewhere.

Want: 0%
We don't need more stages. We need the competitive scene to finally acknowledge the cruel lack of variety the current stage lineup is suffering from. Why is hazardless Frigate Orpheon still not viable? Or hazardless Skyloft? Wuhu Island? No walkoffs, no circle camping, no ceilings... You could argue sharking for Wuhu Island but this isn't Brawl. There's no Meta Knight to abuse the hell out of sharking, defining the meta (knight) by himself. Sharking isn't degenerate anymore, times have changed.

Sorry for the rant but it had to be said, especially since it directly impacts my rating. If stages aren't exactly well-received, there's no incentive to invest in them. Supply and demand. No demand? No supply.

Echo Pass

Chance: 1%
I just don't see who could be introduced as an echo at this point. They would've been in the base game already if they ever were getting in. Still, Nintendo wouldn't say "no" to easy money and echoes are much easier and cheaper to make. It's not completely out of the question, but I'd say highly unlikely due to lack of good candidates. Also I don't think the format would be a pass, but standalone echoes. Not much hype to generate so no need for a pass.

Want: abstain
Depending on the clones and their "quality" (Daisy is low quality, Ken is high quality), I'd gladly welcome new echoes. But if it's just to get Pithree, I'll pass. Cant voice my opinion so long as I don't have a better idea on who could be considered for becoming echoes.

Predictions:
Shantae - 13%
Bomberman - 5%
Shovel Knight - 4%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Standalone Stage (With 6 more on the way, it's unlikely we will get a stage.)
Chance: 0%
Want: 79%
Echo Pass (Same above.)
Chance: 0%
Want: 68%
If you want your scores to count, you have to give 2 sentences to both chance and want (by explaining your reasoning).
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Standalone stages

Chance: 0%
Casual smash => have plenty of stages and variations to pick from. Also have Stage Builder.
Competitive smash => still ban stages that were said to have been viable if hazards were ever turned off, so those would be banned as well.
There's no point in wasting time, effort and money in making new stages. Few people would care, thus few people would buy. Better investment can be made elsewhere.

Want: 0%
We don't need more stages. We need the competitive scene to finally acknowledge the cruel lack of variety the current stage lineup is suffering from. Why is hazardless Frigate Orpheon still not viable? Or hazardless Skyloft? Wuhu Island? No walkoffs, no circle camping, no ceilings... You could argue sharking for Wuhu Island but this isn't Brawl. There's no Meta Knight to abuse the hell out of sharking, defining the meta (knight) by himself. Sharking isn't degenerate anymore, times have changed.

Sorry for the rant but it had to be said, especially since it directly impacts my rating. If stages aren't exactly well-received, there's no incentive to invest in them. Supply and demand. No demand? No supply.

Echo Pass

Chance: 1%
I just don't see who could be introduced as an echo at this point. They would've been in the base game already if they ever were getting in. Still, Nintendo wouldn't say "no" to easy money and echoes are much easier and cheaper to make. It's not completely out of the question, but I'd say highly unlikely due to lack of good candidates. Also I don't think the format would be a pass, but standalone echoes. Not much hype to generate so no need for a pass.

Want: abstain
Depending on the clones and their "quality" (Daisy is low quality, Ken is high quality), I'd gladly welcome new echoes. But if it's just to get Pithree, I'll pass. Cant voice my opinion so long as I don't have a better idea on who could be considered for becoming echoes.

Predictions:
Shantae - 13%
Bomberman - 5%
Shovel Knight - 4%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
I personally hope the fun-hating competitive scene never gets to be so influential that we stop getting cool stages. New stages are fun and only make the game better, you shouldn't let people's reactions affect your hopes or appreciations of them.
There, done it for you.
You're still 6 sentences short though.
 

Mamboo07

Smash Hero
Joined
Mar 23, 2019
Messages
9,387
Location
Hollow Earth
I personally hope the fun-hating competitive scene never gets to be so influential that we stop getting cool stages. New stages are fun and only make the game better, you shouldn't let people's reactions affect your hopes or appreciations of them.

You're still 6 sentences short though.
There you go, I fixed it up.
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
I personally hope the fun-hating competitive scene never gets to be so influential that we stop getting cool stages. New stages are fun and only make the game better, you shouldn't let people's reactions affect your hopes or appreciations of them.
You're absolutely right and I know it, but it's hard when all you ever do is play on the same stages. Whenever I suggest playing on different ones or even ask to play 2v2 or FFA, they almost always refuse. It's grown so stale, it became boring...

Though I did play recently on those stages with a friend. It was a blast! No raging, just laughing, like we were discovering the game anew haha. The MU we were used to had drastically changed all because of the stages. For example, my slower Byleth was no longer perma camped by his MegaMan on Orpheon or Skyworld.

I know some people are desperately trying to tell the TOs to update the stage list, I wish I knew how to support that effort but I'm behind them all the way!
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Standalone Stage

Chance - 0.5% - They couldn't be bothered to give us one previously, and now they are downscaling the team. While they might have something small and/or a surprise, at this point I think they're already going to be straining their resources trying to deal with the pass as-is.

Want - 60% - Don't get me wrong, I want more content more than anything. It's just that stages aren't the sort of thing I can be hyped about compared to anything else.


Echo Pass

Chance - 0% - While I can see an Echo sneak in as part of a full character package, I don't see any ones standalone. Echos are bonus used towards the end of game development to take up time when something extra can be wedged in. That's not something I see happening for DLC pass on even skipper workers.

Want - 50% - I don't care much about echos. What can I say, I rather play the vanilla characters so much I'm the kinda guy who plays Jr. over the Koopalings.


Nominations

De Blob X5
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
As a stage? I thought we learned from the Great Cave Offensive.
Tbh, Great Cave Offensive and other huge stages like that would be much more appreciated if they were side-scrolling at intervals. A bit like a Rainbow Cruise that stops at "stations". That completely destroys camping and limits the actions to a reasonable size. I don't know if you've tried running on 2 opposite corners of Palutena's Temple but you can barely see yourself or what you're doing... No more of that. Please. Have mercy.
 

Phoenixio

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 2, 2019
Messages
192
I also wish there were more stages, I like the hell out of all of them. But due to how competitive works, I doubt we'll see more as they're the ones supporting the game over longer times, and they don't care for anything but Final Destination and Battle Field, pretty much. It's really unfortunate, I really wish more people played competitively with the randomness or items. It's a bit more chaotic, but who cares in the end? And so what if there's more variance on who wins tournaments due to that. You could always ban some items each.

Echo fighters puzzle me. I thought they'd make better use of them. But there's barely any. I also thought they'd use the Fighter Passes to pull out some echoes (of the new FP characters). Or that they'd release a few echoes here and there for free, just to promote the game. Shadow comes to mind here as an easy one to implement. But in a way, I also wish the echoes had more differences between them: not necessarily in moveset, but in properties. Like how Dark Pit has clear differences in the way his special moves behave compared to Pit.

Anyways, chances of that happening now are close to zero I'd say.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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Messages
4,436
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New Jersey
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Day over.

Rate Shantae, Bomberman, and Shovel Knight.

Predict Amaterasu and Monster Hunter.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Shantae


Bomberman


Shovel Knight


Probably the most fun I've had doing a music post in a long time since all of these series have amazing tunes.
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,842
Location
winnipeg
Shantae, Bomberman and Shovel Knight

Chance: 20% for Shantae and 15% for both Bomberman and Shovel Knight. All three are likely choices to appear in the next game. Of course, all three are spirits, with the latter two as assist trophies as well, but they may have a chance in the future. Shantae is more likely to be the first playable indie rep then Shovel Knight, but Shovel Knight also has a chance. Bomberman would not be the first Konami rep, but wither way, Konami is well represented.

Want: 95% for Shovel Knight and Bomberman and 100% for Shantae. All three would be very fun to play as, each has unique moves. Shovel Knight can use his Shovel, Bomberman has tons of bombs and Shantae has her transformation abilities. All three have potential to be fun characters, and who knows, we could get unique assists and spirits to go with them. Overall they will be amoung the best choices for smash.

Predictions: Amaterasu (10%) and Monster Hunter (10%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 3 for Falinks
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Oof, day's already over? Then let me still get out my ratings for that really quick, while there's potential that they'll still be counted.

To this day, I don't understand why everyone's so obsessed with Poké Floats

Chance: 0%
Nah, I just don't see it. Through the first Fighter Pass, pretty much all DLC development was exclusively focussed on the individual fighter packs, and with future DLC following the same format, I don't think that they'll sneak in additional stages in there.

Want: 0%
I already got all the stages I wanted back. Out of all the ones that are currently missing, there's none which I really care about.

The impact of the concept echoes through the fandom

Chance: 0%
Same as above. Previous DLC has focussed entirely on original fighters, and with how much effort goes into these, I don't see any echoes sneaking in. Maybe there's a bonus once the second Fighter Pass is done, but I personally don't think so.

Want: 30%
Sure, it could be interesting. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing echoes for some of my mains, like Malos for Shulk or Octoling for Inkling. But this is nothing that I'm super invested in.

Not gonna do predictions, since the next day already started.

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

Gonna do my actual rating for this day later.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Finally! Some interesting characters to rate!

Shantae
Chance: 12%
One of the likely indie characters. Her series has been with Nintendo for a long time, has lots of fans supporting her, and has a sequel coming soon on Switch. Sakurai acknowledged her popularity and made her into a spirit. He might rethink it and actually promote her into a fighter. The only problem is that she has to compete with really popular characters like Geno, Rex&Pyra, and Bandana Dee.

Want: 25%
I'm not too interested her series, and my no.1 pick is also an indie character. I won't be mad if she gets in since she's a unique character and lots of fans support her, but I wouldn't really be enthusiastic about it. My response would probably be something like 'Oh, she got in. Cool.'

Bomberman
Chance: 7%
Requested third party character. Super Bomberman R was recent, and Sakurai can make him into a fighter easily. Konami was pretty generous about Castlevania, so I think they'll be down about adding a new character, especially since he's popular. The problem for him is that while he's popular, he has to compete with Waluigi and Isaac, who I think are the most popular ATs out there. Not to mention Alucard for the Konami rep.

Want: 60%
While nowhere as near as Isaac, I would want him... only if the alt costumes are the Bomberman bros. from Super Bomberman R. There's exactly 8 of them, so I see no problem. I would really love to blow my opponents up as Aqua. She's my favorite out of the 8.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 6%
Wanted indie character. Would've had better chance if only he wasn't an AT. Similar to Bomberman, he has to compete with Waluigi and Isaac, and both are definitely popular than Shovel Knight. He would also have to compete with Shantae and other various indie characters for the indie rep.

Want: 10%
Used to be one of my wants, but not really much now. He's cool and unique, but for the indie rep I would die to see Hornet playable and for the AT promotion I would much prefer Isaac. He is a good pick, but not really for me. If he gets in, I would be kind of disappointed but feel happy for his fans nonetheless.

Prediction
Amaterasu: 10%
Monster Hunter: 15%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,518
Location
Drenthe, NL
Shouldn'tae
Chance: 0.1%
I firmly believe those Spirits is all she's going to have. I still view her series as niche compared to other Indie characters who still couldn't get a character. She has an extremely loud fanbase, yes, but there are options I would say have a bigger impact overall. There's a 5th Shantae game coming but the planning probably happened too early for that.

Want: 0%
Yeah, this character feels a bit too much in a bubble to take seriously. No offense to the games tho, I'm sure they're fine Metroidvanias, I just wouldn't pick that series too represent indies. (Yall already know who I'd go for)

Yup, this one's an Assist Trophy
Chance: 0%
I honestly don't see this little guy getting an upgrade anytime soon. The demand for him has died down significantly since his AT reveal and the future of his series remains undetermined to my knowledge. There are also other possibilities for more Konami characters, such as the Contra guy or Frogger.

Want: Abstaining

\[T]/
Chance: 1%
Yacht club really seems to make Shovel Knight into a franchise after its huge succes, which may convince Nintendo to go for an upgrade. Honestly though, it seems everybody is already content with him being an Assist. Nintendo would probably go for somebody else in this case.


Want: 10%
Look, I liked Shovel Knight but I'm already ok with the Assist Trophy. I'm just currently interested in other characters right now. Again, there's some other knight I want way more.


Amaterasu: 3.68%
Monster Hunter: 5.44%
Alucard x5
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
10,541
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Aw Shant, here we go again
Chance: 30%

I'm under the belief that, assuming Spirits don't deconfirm, they could just use another piece of artwork for the promoted Spirit. Or heck, just use the fighter render for the Fighter Spirit and nothing else.

Want: abstain
I'd definitely play as her, but she's not incredibly high on my want list. If I had the time, I'd play one of her games so then I could get a better idea of what she could play like.


Diggin' up some bombs, diggin' up some bombs~
Chance: 0%

Like I said during Waluigi and Isaac, I firmly believe that Assist Trophies DO deconfirm. They're not going to promote an Assist Trophy to an actual character in the same game where they're an Assist Trophy (EXCLUDING the hypothetical Special Edition on whatever more powerful version of the Switch Nintendo eventually makes). Any Assist Trophies that WERE promoted were done so in the game AFTER they were an Assist Trophy. :ultlittlemac: was an SSB4 fighter after being a Brawl Assist Trophy, and :ultdarksamus::ultisabelle: were Ultimate fighters (albeit the former was an Echo Fighter) after being SSB4 Assist Trophies.

Want: abstain
Like Shantae, neither of these two are high on my priority list. If I had some more time to play their respective games, I might take them into consideration.

Also, side note: I think it's cool they're acknowledging indies at all through Shantae being a Spirit and Shovel Knight being an Assist Trophy.

Amaterasu: 10%
Monster Hunter: 20%


Noms: Sirfetch'd x5
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Everyone's favorite genie

Chance: 16%

After thinking about it, Shantae is actually in a good spot. I'm confident that base game spirits don't deconfirm FP2 characters and Shantae is one of the few indie characters that has a realistic shot of getting in. She has legacy dating back to 2002, she is heavily requested, every game has been on a Nintendo console, and she has unique moveset potential with not just her hair whip, but her ability to transform into a variety of creatures which has a lot of potential. She does have competition from fellow indie characters Quote and Reimu, but the fact that Shantae got a spirit says something about the level of respect that the Smash team has toward Shantae. I think Quote has an edge over Shantae due to Cave Story's importance and origin in Japan, but Shantae is not too far behind. The only thing is that I'm still not too confident in us getting an indie rep. If we haven't gotten one at this point, I'm concerned we might not get even one by the end of this second pass. Still, if there was a time to get an indie character, it would probably be now as Sakurai wants to make this the biggest game he can make.

Want: 60%

I've only played a little bit of her games so I can't say I'm a fan. Still, her moveset potential with her transformations could be wicked cool and is something we don't see a lot in Smash. Shantae herself is cute and would bring a lot of personality to the table. I can imagine her teaming up with Isabelle which is heartwarming. Plus I would be happy for her fans and her inclusion would mean we finally got an indie character! We are really overdue for one of those.


Bombs away!

Chance: 15%

Konami has not been discussed a lot in speculation despite having some notable franchises like Bomberman, Contra and (I"m pretty sure) Frogger. Doing research, Bomberman has quite a legacy with him appearing over 70 games and him having dozens of his own games. He even has manga and anime. Wow, I think Bomberman might just be an underrated contender. He has plenty of Nintendo history, he is moderately popular, has relevancy, and unique moveset potential consisting of having to strategically place bombs. The only thing is that he is not very requested and I don't see him being one of the first couple assist trophies to be upgraded. Characters like Waluigi overshadow him when it comes to sheer popularity and requests. Not to mention competition from fellow Konami series/former NES icon series Contra.

Still, Konami is a company that could get a rep in the second fighters pass and judging from the Castlevania content, they don't seem to be a hassle to work with, contrary to what many people seem to think. I honestly think Bomberman is a solid contender and that we should discuss Konami more as they are a Japanese company with popular legacy franchises that have little to no representation in Ultimate.

Want: 70%

This is a bit high considering that I've never even played a Bomberman game. I've just been looking at them from a distance through videos and while I'm not too interested in them due to being multiplayer focused and me being a mostly single player person, they have a charm to them that I like. Bomberman has a cool and unique design and the thought of what he could bring excites me. Having a mostly bomb-centric moveset sounds interesting and I would like to see what that would look like. The stage potential is also awesome. You could have a stage with multiple elevations and gaps (similar to Wrecking Crew stage) where bombs are randomly placed and you have to get out of the way to avoid them. It would be a chaotic and very fun stage and that alone makes me want to give Bomberman a high want score. Bomberman has certainly deserved a potential spot with his legacy.


A knight that fights with a shovel?

Chance: 16%

You can tell I've warmed up to the idea of assist trophy upgrades. Indeed, this is another of the likeliest indie characters who could get in. Shovel Knight has been proven to be an indie icon. His game has done exceptionally well critically and financially and it spans over to all kinds of systems. Shovel Knight has remained relevant with a lot of DLC and spinoff games. Judging from some research, Shovel Knight is well known in Japan and the fact that he, an indie character, got an assist trophy says a lot. Yes, being an assist trophy does really hurt a characters chances and again, Quote will probably be the indie rep if we ever get one, but assist trophies are not a death sentence. Same thing with Bomberman. If Sakurai wants to make a character playable, he will.

It's really hard to tell if and what assist trophies could get upgraded. We could easily get zero or just one promotion. It's hard to know for sure since we don't know any characters from the second fighters pass yet. However, Shovel Knight is popular and requested, and if Nintendo listened, we might just get some assist trophy upgrades.

Want: 68%

I've had Shovel Knight Treasure Trove on my Switch for months now and haven't played it yet. What am I doing. Anyway, despite not playing the game I have a level of respect for the game and I think Shovel Knight is very cool, design and moveset wise. They did do a great job on the model for his assist trophy. Here's to hope that he gets upgraded as I'm curious to see how his moveset would work and I'm hoping that we finally get an indie character. Same for assist trophy upgrades, I'm hoping we get one of those because that would be mind blowing and open the door for a wide range of characters.

Predictions:
Amaterasu - 25%
Monster Hunter - 17%

Noms: Crypto x5
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Shantae
Chance: 0%
Lets make a checklist of why Shantae is dead.
  • Spirit not named Rex or Geno
  • Indie
  • Kind of(but not completely) unknown outside of Indy game fans or Smash speculators
  • Lacks a real reason for Nintendo to pick her
I don't think shes a viable DLC. She doesn't even fit as a super mii costume unless you want to do some weird crap with her hair being the sword.

Want: 0%
As I stated above, there are way better options for DLC than her. I don't think she deserves a slot either. People act like an Indie rep is mandatory sometimes but it really isnt


Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
Lets make a list of why Shovel Knight is dead
  • Assist Trophy
  • Spirit not named Rex or Geno
  • Indie
  • Work work as super mii costume
  • Lacks a real reason for Nintendo to pick him
Again, not really a viable DLC pick.

Want: 20%
I like Shovel Knight. I rage quit from his game because I suck balls at it, but that doesn't change his want score. What does though is that I don't think he has any business being upgraded over Rex or Geno

Bomberman
Chance: 0%
No need to make a list for this on, it's open and shut. The only way we get a promotion is from people requesting it. Nobody is asking for Bomberman to be promoted. With no demand, Nintendo has no reason to promote him. Hope he's enjoying being an assist trophy, because he sure as hell won't be playable in Ultimate


Want: 0%
I don't care enough about this guy to want a promotion. Nowhere near the best promotion option. I actually kinda like his assist trophy though.

Predict:
Ammy 18%
Monster Hunter 6%

Noms: Gnar x5
 
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Trevenant

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
1,166
She doesn't even fit as a super mii costume unless you want to do some weird crap with her hair being the sword.
Not really. Mii characters don’t have to be a one to one transition. Best example I can think of from the top of my head is Lloyd from
smash 4 who only wields one sword despite him being more known for dual wielding. Anyway Shantae could easily just be a brawler and it would work.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Not really. Mii characters don’t have to be a one to one transition. Best example I can think of from the top of my head is Lloyd from
smash 4 who only wields one sword despite him being more known for dual wielding. Anyway Shantae could easily just be a brawler and it would work.
Think he means the Sans/Cuphead style, not the normal kind
 

Trevenant

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
1,166
Think he means the Sans/Cuphead style, not the normal kind
In that case I don’t think the problem is the lack of a sword or gun, just the lack of a full costume.

Characters like Sans and Cuphead don’t really have regular faces like the miis in their own games so masks make sense while Shantae has a face which would work better as just a regular mii. Still I don’t really think the lack of a mask would really deter them from the idea as a regular head would suit Shantae just as a mask would suit better for Sans and Cuphead.

Just wanted to point that out but I don’t want to derail the topic so I’ll leave it at that.
 
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