Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Featuring Dante from DmC: Devil May Cry

Chance: 75%

It's fair to say Dante has 1 of, if not, the highest chances of being in Smash now that Devil May Cry 5 revived the series from the ashes Ninja Theory and Capcom at the time pissed all over and the first 3 Devil May Cry games were ported to the Switch. Itsuno did state he wanted a DMC game on a Nintendo platform before seeing Dante officially in Smash, and look where we are today. Devil May Cry is on a Nintendo console which matters the most to many Dante fans. With Capcom already having a part in Smash and the amount of people that actively want Dante to be in Smash, almost everything is pointing towards his favor. I can't even think of any reasons to why he wouldn't be in Smash since Resident Evil got spirited away and any other reason would be just a gut feeling, so that already gives him 1 of the highest advantages out of any other character out there.

Want: 20%

Dante seems like a genuinely cool character except when Ninja Theory got their hands on the franchise and made Dante the edgiest of edgelords because somebody thought OG Dante wasn't cool, and I even liked how he got a major role in MVC:I's story despite how poorly handled everything else was. Dante would make a great inclusion for Smash, but I'm not really as big into seeing it than most others are. Because Capcom can be so crossover heavy, I'd prefer for the next potential Capcom rep to be a character who hasn't appeared in any Capcom related crossover before like the VS games and Project X Zone. Unfortunately, Dante seems to be 1 of the many characters Capcom will always put in a crossover ever since MVC 3, so right now, I'd pass on Dante being in Smash.
---------------
Phoenix Wright

Chance: 35%

Like Dante, Phoenix Wright is a very popular Capcom character. The Ace Attorney trilogy was released almost a year ago on multiple platforms including the Switch, so the franchise is currently doing better than most of the dead Capcom IPs out there. Ultimate Marvel VS Capcom 3 even shows us that they could make Phoenix into a fighter, so why would Sakurai not be able to when they could? Well, I don't got an answer for you. The only reason Phoenix Wright isn't any higher than 35% is because of Dante. Devil May Cry has a lot more going for it than Ace Attorney. Both franchises may have games ported to the Switch, but DMC has a higher leverage than AA I feel. With Devil May Cry 5 being fresh on people's minds and the recent games being ported to the Switch, it just looks like it's pointing towards Dante's favor than Phoenix's.

Want: 20%

Well, if you read what I said in the want portion for Dante, you can see why Phoenix has the same rating as him. I sorta have the same sentiment that TheJwittz had with that recent top 10 he did but just without the aggressive tone. They may be 2 different games, but seeing Phoenix in UMVC 3 does kinda lessen any interest I had with seeing him in Smash. Granted, Phoenix has appeared in fewer Capcom crossovers than Dante, but it doesn't really change my want rating on him. This isn't to say that Phoenix would be a boring pick however. I'm sure there's a great amount of stuff that Ace Attorney could bring to Smash like a fun stage and a good selection of music, but I just don't feel interested with him being in Smash.
---------------
Predictions:
Vault Guy - 0.64%
Dragonborn - 36%
Doom Slayer - 5.34%
---------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5

Is there a Capcom character that hasn't been on their crossovers?

 

[3DSNinja]

Is there a Capcom character that hasn't been on their crossovers?

Asura.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Is there a Capcom character that hasn't been on their crossovers?

Gene

 

[GoodGrief741]

Asura.

Gene

Damn, not even in, like, Project X Zone? What a waste.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate the following characters:

• Vault Boy from Fallout
• Doomguy from Doom
• Dovahkiin from Elder Scrolls

Predict 2B from the NieR/Drakengard series, as well as Neku from The World Ends With You.

Megadoomer

----------

Music Post

Here are some songs for the following characters:

Vault Boy

Spoiler: Fallout Music

Doomguy

Spoiler: Doom Music

Dovahkiin

Spoiler: Skyrim Music

 

[BowserKing]

Vault Boy

Chance: 5%. He is a mascot character, so having him be playable would be a surprise. However, it's mostly main characters who get in (Pokémon and villains aside) so his chance is low. Competition from many franchises is another huge factor, but we have been surprised before, so who knows what will happen next?

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as however, and a post apocalyptic background would be a unique stage to fight in. A moveset would be the most difficult, but I assume that some weapons in Fallout could be used. That is all for now about Vault Boy, so now to the next fighter.

Doomguy

Chance: 15%. There have been leaks about Doomguy joining the roaster, but so far, nothing has happened for him yet. But popularity and being from a shooter game would pump up his chance of appearing in the game. And of course, the biggest issue is the competition he would face for the next slot, and while it's too late for Fighter's pass 1, he could appear in the second one.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as, and appearing in a shooter game, would bring more unique to the roaster. I can already see him fighting the likes of villains like Ganondorf, but also having a brawl with Samus, Snake and Bayonetta as well. The arena would be very deadly to be in, but who knows how the characters can turn out

Dovahkiin

Chance: 10% The chance of Dovahkiin is a small one, and the main reason why is the fierce completion. This competition is slightly less fierce now, with a few more characters disconfirmed (due to Mii Costumes and Stage Cameos mind you), which bumps Dovahkiin up the chance a bit, but it might not be enough for him to get in, but who knows.

Want: 50% Dovahkiin would be fun to play as however, and an arena with a snowy forest would be tranquil to fight in. But then again, who knows who and what will show up in the future, but for now, being fun to play as is what should matter.

Predictions: 2B (5%) and Neku (5%)

Noms: 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon and 3 for Meowth

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

500 atoms
Chance: 0%
Forget about Fallout having little connection to Nintendo, the latest game in the series not being liked by the majority of gamers and Doomguy and Dragonborn both generally being agreed to be much likelier and let's remember the theme of the Fallout franchise.

Now I don't know much about what's banned in Japan but I'm pretty sure having a character and a stage from a game that references nuclear apocalypse in your family friendly party game won't sit well with Nintendo and many Japanese households.

Want: 0%
Do not have much interest in the Fallout series and Vault boy has never been that appealing of a mascot to me. Honestly he looks like Mii costume material to me at most. I imagine him being pretty uncanny as a fighter.

Dootguy
Chance: 1%
So that recent Doom dev interview huh? While I wouldn't take it as a 100% deconfirmation it certainly brings him down a lot. Perhaps Japan's dislike of FPS's couldn't make it happen after all. There's also basically no way that Cacaomallow leak can still be real right now.

Want: Abstaining

Todd game
Chance: 5%
It's not clear to me if Nintendo not approaching the Doom team also means they didn't approach Bethesda. Regardless, virtually all arguments for Dragonborn's inclusion hinge on Skyrim being a big deal of a game but I personally no longer see us getting any major characters from western IPs in this new pass. The theory of the budget as well as the manpower being smaller makes me think we aren't going to see AAA characters like this one.

Want: Abstaining

2B: 19.55%
Neku: 10.23%
De Blob x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Vault Boy:

Chance: 0% - I can't imagine that Fallout would get representation ahead of Doom or Elder Scrolls, and on top of that Vault Boy is a pretty out there pick. Not that he isn't iconic, but he's more of a mascot than an actual character from what I can gather.

Want: 25% - Nah, not for me. I have respect for Fallout, but I have a hard time seeing Vault Boy being implemented in an appealing way.

Doomguy:

Chance: 5% - I can't write him off completely, but yeah, that recent interview has rightfully tempered expectations of him getting into Smash.

Want: 65% - My younger brother would be over the moon for him, so that at least gives him a somewhat positive rating from me. I'd personally rather have Master Chief, who's of a similar archetype, but I still think Doomguy would be a very fitting addition given Doom's legendary status.

Dovahkiin:

Chance: 15% - Definitely has the best shot out of any Bethesda rep at this point, Skyrim was a global phenomenon and even helped inspire Nintendo themselves when it came to BotW, so he does have some merit. However, I still don't consider him very likely, I think being a western character is generally a bit of a roadblock as it seemed like Sakurai wasn't entirely comfortable when it came to the communication regarding Banjo's inclusion. That doesn't mean we won't get any more western characters of course, I absolutely think we will, but the language barrier means it'll likely be 1 or 2 at most, and at that point I simply think there are western characters that are more likely than Dovahkiin, and by extension any Bethesda rep.

Want: 60% - Unlike the other two Bethesda guys we're rating I've actually played this guy's game. I mean, who hasn't at this point? Still, even if I do get a lot of hours out of Elder Scrolls games, I feel like they're usually just flawed yet good games, and nothing more than that. I like the idea of a fighter that dual wields axes, but the idea doesn't resonate with me beyond that.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x5

 

[Sari]

Vault Boy

Chance: 0.01%
Doomguy and Dovahkiin are probably the first candidates on the table when it comes to adding a Bethesda character. I just don't see them adding Vault Boy when those two have much more going for them, like having a stronger Nintendo connection and their recent games not sucking for example. Also this doesn't affect my chance score, but as someone who hasn't played Fallout isn't Vault Boy just a mascot for the series used for various in-game demonstrations and such? Wouldn't the actual playable character of Fallout get in before him?

Want: Abstain
Never got into the Fallout games so I'll abstain. I feel like I'd much prefer Doomguy though when it comes to Bethesda characters.

----------

Doomguy

Chance: 1%
I think the recent Metro interview pretty much killed his chances. Responding to Smash related questions with a typical "we'd be open to it" or "we'd love to see it happen" is one thing, but to go out of your way and basically say "Nintendo never bothered to contact us" really makes me think that they actually didn't. I'll give him a non-zero chance score in the event some miraculous deal actually came through, but I seriously doubt it at this rate.

Want: Abstain
While I've been eyeing up the Doom series for a while now, I have yet to really go deep into one of the games so I'll abstain.

----------

Dovahkiin

Chance: 10%
With Doomguy most likely out of the running, Dovahkiin is looking to be the most likely Bethesda character. That said though, I'm not sure if Nintendo even approached Bethesda as a whole for Smash so there's a decent chance he could be out of the running as well. Although Skyrim was one of the biggest games of the last decade, the fact that he's Western owned still doesn't help.

Want: Abstain
I didn't really get all that far in Skyrim so I'll abstain.

----------

2B chance prediction: 23.78%
Neku chance prediction: 11. 33%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

The Last Dragonborn, Slayer of Alduin and Savior of Tamriel

Chance: 45% - Now that Doom Slayer is out of the picture, Dragonborn is the new frontrunner as perceived by the fanbase. The Elder Scrolls is an extremely successful and influential open-world series that inspired other games to take on the style, including the extremely successful Breath of the Wild. The series as sold 52 million copies, with 33 million coming from Skyrim alone. The fact that people still talk about the game despite coming out 8 years ago (for mixed reasons) is a testament to how influential it was. Furthermore, there are some other major points I want to list that work in his favor:

- The first Western game to be given a 40/40 on Famitsu. Dragonborn is also an Avatar character, which Japan has a fondness for.
- Skyrim was used to help advertise the Switch during the initial trailer.
- Todd Howard appears to be a fan of Nintendo, given the Zelda items in the Switch port of Skyrim were his idea. The Switch version got exclusive content such as that and Skyward Sword-style motion controls.
- The recent Doom interview mentioning that higher-ups had done some talking to each other. Given Marty didn't know or say who talked to who, we do know that there was some negotiations going on somewhere, affirming Pete Hines' statement that they had indeed talked to Nintendo about Smash at some point. We just know that it wasn't for Doom Slayer. Which puts The Elder Scrolls as the most likely.

I'll also quote my rundown from Dragonborn's own rating day since it was pretty recent:

Chance: 45% - People are REALLY sleeping on this character. People meme about Skyrim a ton, yes, but it has kept an important presence, and the Elder Scrolls as a whole is still considered the pinnacle of Open World franchises, and a lot of other games have followed in its' footsteps. Furthermore I hear Dragonborn has more support in other parts of the Smash Community, even if this forum and PapaGenos' community are banking hard on Doom Slayer. Bethesda's had a great relationship with Nintendo and before Doom got all of its' Switch love, Skyrim was getting it first.

There are many factors that work in the Dragonborn's favor:

1. Western Characters are now on the table - This applies to a lot of characters, but Banjo-Kazooie opening the doors to Western characters is a major game changer since the Dragonborn's previous rating.

2. Skyrim was one of the first games shown off on the Switch - During the Switch's reveal trailer, Skyrim was the second game shown off after Breath of the Wild, and the first Third Party game shown, showing that Nintendo holds the game in high regard.

3. Breath of the Wild takes inspiration - During an interview, it was stated that the Elder Scrolls series was a major point of inspiration for Breath of the Wild, showing how influential the series has become.

4. Skyrim for Switch has exclusive content - The Switch version of Skyrim further cements the relationship between it and Breath of the Wild. Several Zelda items are available in-game, complete with Amiibo support as well, and even a new eye option for Wood Elves/Bosmer to presumably help create Link look-alikes. There was even a motion-based control scheme added to take advantage of the Joycons, which leads me into my next point...

5. Todd Howard appears to be a fan of or has some kind of interest in Nintendo - Apparently the special Switch version content for Skyrim was suggested and pushed for by Todd himself, showing that he has an interest in Nintendo. If this is indeed the case, then if Sakurai himself or Nintendo executives came to Bethesda for negotiations, then Todd more than likely would've wanted to be at that meeting. People state that the Doom 64 Pete Hines appearence in September's Nintendo Direct is a big point in Doom's favor, but let's not forget that Todd Howard did the same thing a year prior, appearing on a Nintendo Direct himself to talk about Skyrim for Switch. Todd is as big within Bethesda as Pete Hines is, and he would definitely push to get one of his characters into the game.

6. Skyrim was the first western game to receive a 40/40 on Famitsu - Famitsu gave Skyrim a perfect score, and the Elder Scrolls, both in its' games/roleplaying and its' modding, have gained a sizable following in Japan. Even if it's no Dragon Quest, it is doing very well for a Western Game, and even Elder Scrolls online has plenty of Japanese players despite not having a dedicated server. Bethesda's been putting up big advertisements for their games at Tokyo Game Show as well. People, again, try to point this in Doom's favor but they've been advertising ESO there for several years. There's also Elder Scrolls Blades, which Bethesda has been putting up promotions for the Switch version, and on the game's webpage there's even an image with a giant Switch playing the game. Meanwhile Doom, while having a fan project there, is still very niche, and Fallout doesn't seem to be making waves there either. Nintendo cares the most about their home market, and of Bethesda's choices Dragonborn would make the most sense, both sales and cultural-wise.

7. Out of Bethesda's games, The Elder Scrolls series has sold the most, and is their home grown franchise - The Elder Scrolls as a whole has sold 52 million copies, and Skyrim alone has sold 33 million. That alone is four times as much as the entire Doom franchise. Furthrmore The Elder Scrolls' success is what made Bethesda who they are, and without them there likely would've been no revivals for Doom or Fallout.

I'll be realistic in that being a Western character he still has some very intense competition and is fighting an uphill battle, but with many points in his favor to prove to Nintendo that he is worth it, and with Doom Slayer out of the picture for now for Fighter's Pass #5, Dragonborn's chances are looking greater than ever! Say what you want about the game, I think it's definitely stood the test of time!

Want: 100%++ - The Last Dragonborn (or any Elder Scrolls rep for that matter) is one of my most wanted characters, second only to The Prince of All Cosmos. The Elder Scrolls was one of the first non-Nintendo series I've played and Skyrim was my first entry into the series, so it has great sentimental value to me. The whole experience of starting a new Elder Scrolls game and exploring for the first time is just so magical. I remember spending countless hours reading the lore and watching remix videos for months until I was able to get a computer that could run the games. The series also came into my life during a very good time, and the memories I have with it are irreplaceable. All together I've put over 600-700 hours into Skyrim, along with 300+ in Oblivion and 100+ in Morrowind, making it one of my most played series of all time.

Furthermore, The Last Dragonborn would bring a new archetype and aesthetic to Smash that we have yet to see, and the shout mechanic from the game feels tailor-made for specials in a Smash Bros game. There are all sorts of cool effects to choose from, and with different alts resembling the game's different races, he could make for a very personalized character, one that fellow Avatar character Robin didn't try. They could even take it a step further and give him a dedicated Weapon-switching mechanic alongside it for his A moves and grabs, something that Byleth missed the oppurtunity for. And the stage would be absolutely gorgeous, and I'd love to see the Smash team's take on several of the series' most iconic tracks! I'd love to see Whiterun or High Hrothgar in stage form, or even the Imperial City if they decide to go for a more general Elder Scrolls representation! There is so much to look forward to, and if The Last Dragonborn were to make it into Smash it would be a joy greater than any before it! A lot of people use the "Celebration of video games" idea to justify a lot of characters, both significant and obscure.. And with that idea in mind I think The Elder Scrolls would make for a fantastic addition to the celebration!


Doom Slayer, Slayer of Demons in the Dangers of Hell

Chance: 1% - I may be a bit biased, but I'm going to be honest, that interview was a massive death blow to his chances. It is often cited as an NDA lie, but unlike other instances such as the Grant Kirkhope "Don't get your hopes up", this was WAY too in-depth to be a simple deflection. While it isn't a concrete "no", it simply does too much to seem like a simple deflection. A lot of NDA lies are short, simple statements, and in interviews they want to say as little as possible to avoid accidentally saying something they shouldn't.

Outside of that, like the other two characters mentioned here, Doom Slayer is a Western character, and unlike the other two his popularity in Japan is greatly in question. While there is a small cult following and a fan project, most fans treat him like Westerners treat a good chunk of JRPG characters. When nicknames like "Green Samus" and "Pacific Rim Guy" are thrown around, I can't imagine the home player base would be too happy with the choice. Furthermore, despite the general unpopularity of the FPS genre in Japan, there is a significant amount of favor shown towards Master Chief over Doom Slayer as an FPS representative, and despite Doom Slayer grandfathering the Genre, Chief these days is seen as the face of it.

But it's not all negative, it still remains that most of the DOOM library is on the Switch now and Doom has a significant history with Nintendo in the past, so despite the odds this could definitely amount to something in the future. But I can see him being much more of a Sakurai pick than a Nintendo pick.

Want: 0% - My main issue is Doom Slayer being inter-company competition with one of my most wanted characters. Outside of that I don't have any problems with the character and I respect him and his history. He'd certainly bring some extremely unique characteristics to the game and could make for a unique playstyle. Though I've listened to some of Doom's soundtrack and I've never been much of a fan of Heavy metal, so I wouldn't be too interested in the rest of his content.


Vault Boy, Mascot of Vault-Tec

Chance: 3% - Vault Tec calling! Vault Boy is in a very bizarre spot when it comes to chances. While The Elder Scrolls has a main series game on Switch along with an upcoming spinoff and DOOM has most of its' library on switch, Fallout just has Shelter. Furthermore, it's at a weird imbalance when it comes to potential Japanese popularity. It's primarily based around shooting gameplay-wise, which has never been popular in japan, but at the same time it contains a lot of spillovers from Japan's Elder Scrolls fans (if Nexus is anything to go by) due to the shared writing style and open-world roleplaying mechanics of the games. There's also the issue of the game's themes of nuclear apocalypse not being seen as family-friendly, and Japan doesn't quite have the cultural context of or exposure to the Fallout series' 50's cold war Americana style that is often seen in movies and cultural elements in the United States (this same element of cultural context would hurt other characters such as Freddy Fazbear). While there's a lot of interest in other parts of the world in Japan, I can't imagine a theme like this being appealing to the masses. Vault Boy's also done some pretty gruesome things despite his cartoony appearence and Vault Tec in-universe is extremely dystopian.

There's also the point that you don't play as Vault Boy, so a character like The Lone Wanderer, The Messenger, or the Sole Survivor would likely be chosen instead, also having that Avatar appeal that Japan loves.

PR issues surrounding the Fallout series in the past year or so may also be a factor.

That said, Sakurai has apparently taken an interest in the series at one point. He mentioned that one of Fallout 3's DLCs (The Pitt i believe) had a lot of bang for your buck, and apparently he streamed Fallout 4 at one point (though take that last one with a grain of salt). Still, Sakurai taking interest in a game has sometimes led to Smash inclusion (see Persona 5 and most Fire Emblem games), so a Fallout rep could honestly surprise us at some point!

Want: 70% - If you had asked me a few months ago I would've given Vault Boy a 0. While the inter-company competition with Dragonborn is a huge problem for me, Vault Boy wouldn't be such a bad option. I got Fallout 4 for Christmas and have been loving it so far! There are unique elements that they could introduce and giving Vault Boy a laser weapon (like the in-game energy rifles) could easily alleviate the more violent aspects of the character. Furthermore there's a lot of awesome stage locations like The Capital Wasteland, Diamond City, and New Vegas to choose from. Vault Boy does have the issue of music, but alongside the in-game ambiance tracks they could easily give Vault Boy some of Magnolia's songs from Fallout 4, which sound like 50's songs but are composed specifically for the game.


Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
2B - 33.17%
Neku - 7.31%

 

[Ridrool64]

Hey, you. You're finally awake. You were trying to cross the border, right?

Chance: 20%. The ZeniMax frontrunner in the wake of the death of Doom. Skyrim IIRC was a huge hit, and through memes survives in the public conversation to this day. Overall, I think they have a chance... but the problem is, I don't have any idea if Japan gives a **** about Skyrim or not.

Want: 60%. The Dragonborn's niche as a heavyweight midrange zoner is now Byleth's... except Byleth isn't heavy. Also, lots and lots and lots and lots of moveset potential. And Kirby doing shouts. This is the definition of Smash Bros. in its finest form now.

32X Fart Noises

Chance: 0.1%. Doom is dead, and while technically the fringe chance of the interview being a lie is possible, Kirkhope clause-ing* every potential disconfirmation is gonna lead us to denial of the truth more often than not. But if it weren't for that it'd be way higher. I had to kick him off my predictions list, but originally, he had a 70~ something.

(Kirkhope Clause: Technically speaking, any disconfirmation can be a lie when you know it's happening. There's some wiggle room in terms of how to interpret non-disclosure agreements, and the laymen like us don't have a full understanding of the inner workings of such things. As a result, you could legitimately believe that it's not true. That being said, the announcements were not quite lies, but misleading.)

Want: I'll sit this one out. But I will say that I don't find him very visually interesting and I'm starting to prefer the Chief.

Dealing with the Fallout of 76...K+ people hating your release

Chance: 5%. Edelgard, Dimitri and Claude couldn't get in before Byleth, Azura before Corrin, hell, at the time Chrom before Robin. And what does Fire Emblem have to do with Fallout? In addition, Chocobo and Black Mage both couldn't get in over Cloud, and Slime couldn't get in over Hero. What's my point? Why would we get a drawing that's a representation of Fallout abilities before getting a Fallout protagonist? They could use default settings for everything and presto. I get that he's more iconic than a Fallout protag because marketing, but there's a clear winner here. Now if we were talking Mii Costumes I could see it, but we're not.

Want: 10%. On the character himself would be an abstention. However, this guy would set a precedent for Sans to be fully playable over Frisk, which I have... negative feelings about. And Fallout 76, of everything I've heard, is a ****show that deserves to be gatekept (though I won't hold all Bethesda, ZeniMax, or even Fallout in general against it.). Besides, I like Dragonborn better, but that's just me.

A new concept I've been thinking of that I'm interested in: DLC Music Packs x 5. This is what I'm gonna juggle with Paper Mario from now on, and I'll let Assists lie for a while. 2B is, as I've said many a time before, female robot Joker when it comes to Smash speculation, so 16.29% seems pretty reasonable. Neku is under the radar and competes with too many characters to really be viable. 7.20%, simply because there's nothing wrong with the character.

 

[jamesster445]

Vault Boy
Chance: 40%
Want: 40%
Skyrim in Smash
Chance: 50%
Want: 40%
Doom Slayer
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Correct me if I'm wrong but Vault Boy is just a mascot in the Fallout universe right? If that's the case then he's not really a character.

Doom Slayer is the shooty boi I crave. Unfortunately recent statements are waning my confidence in him.

The Dohvakin is an underrated choice. It also doesn't help that Skyrim is Bethesda's biggest game until Elder Scrolls 6.

Nominations: Gex x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Vault Boy
Chance 5 - I feel like if Nintendo was going to go for a Bethesda rep they would pick a character before they went for a mascot, but who knows. Maybe that doesn't matter as much as I think it does. The pros are that he's recognizable. After that there's not a ton. Fallout 76 was a massive bomb to the point where it wouldn't be bad to wait to see how things shake out with the series going forward and nobody is really asking for him. With all that said, I could see him being a bit of a surprise pick.

Want 50 - Could be kinda funny I guess and VB is recognizable. There's a lot of picks I'd like less. I don't have a huge attachment for the character though so I'm probably not going to go much higher. Moveset potential is also a pretty big question here.


Doom Guy
Chance 1 - He's done. I can't remember the exact quote from the interview but I dont think we're getting Kirkhope'd here. If we were I really dont think they'd be allowed to talk about their contact with Nintendo. If that isn't breaking an NDA then I have no clue what is short of screaming that your character made it in the game. Shame, because I think there's some potential here, but it feels like it's time to move on. If we get a 3rd fighers pass then I'll worry about him again then, but until then in my eyes he's gone.

Want 50 - Have very little Doom experience but the series is well known and from the one game I played it seemed fun. There's worse picks that could be made for DLC.


Dovahkiin
Chance 40 - The most likely Bethesda rep now that Doom Guy is in a good deal of jeopardy and one of the more likely western characters overall. Not sure he's been super requested, but Skyrim/Elder Scrolls is a very well known series which makes up for that. It feels like just a matter if Nintendo wants him or not, and while I'm leaning towards maybe not I think the chance is still there.

Want 60 - Yeah, I'll take him in the game. I dont know the series but the character seems fun and like it would have some moveset potential. I remember Skyrim being all the rage not too long ago. IDK about how the games did in Japan but Im positive he'd be a hit in the west.

Predictions
2B - 40%
Neku - 2%

Noms:
Big Daddy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Country Roads

Double zeroes

I do wonder, did the person who nominated him ever play Fallout? Vault Boy isn't a character, he's a pretty good candidate for the series icon. He's for the most part a UI element, a cartoony mascot representing a fictional corporation. I very much doubt that Fallout would be represented through a character that is fictional within the games' universe. I could see him as a Mii Costume, and to be honest that's the most I'd expect Fallout to get.

Animal Crossing's Competitor

Chance: 0%
Doomguy's disconfirmed. Devs said they were never contacted by Nintendo for Smash. Unless there's some secret, telepathic way of doing negotiations that they haven't taught me in law school, that means he can't be in Fighter Pass Vol 2.

Want: abstain

Achilles' Knee

Chance: 35%
Discounted a bit for being Western, but otherwise pretty solid. Iconic, influential, Nintendo presence, moveset potential, yadda yadda yadda. I guess you could say that Doomguy's disconfirmation helps his chances, but to be honest I always thought Dovahkiin was the likelier character. The one thing that gives me pause is that Skyrim might be too big (and costly) for Smash, but then again Bethesda desperately needs the good PR and old Todd loves to put his baby anywhere he can, so maybe it'll all work out.

Want: 90%

Noms: Kiryu x5
2B prediction: 41.2%
Neku prediction: 15.7%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Phoenix Wright/Dante pre-Vault Boy/Doomguy/Dovahkiin

Freddy Fazbear x140
Kazuma Kiryu x135
The Blob (De Blob) x125
Crypto x115
Carmen Sandiego x115
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x105
Gex x95

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Reporter & Wrestler x65
Chun-Li x65
Decidueye x62
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x57
Meowth x55
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Ring Fit Adventurer x40
Big Daddy (BioShock) x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x35
[Rerate] Paper Mario x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x27
Urbosa x25

Under 25

Giygas x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x15
Concept: Darksiders rep x15
Segata Sanshiro x15
Terra Branford x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
Mii Costume: Quote x10
[Rerate] Kratos x10
Black Shadow x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
Guardian (Destiny) x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep travels past the 50 nom border.

Your newcomer for the day is Guardian, with 5 noms.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Vault Dweller Boi

Chance: 4%

Fallout does have Fallout Shelter on Switch so that's one thing going for the character. Fallout is an iconic series, spanning from the 90s to modern day. Vault Boy himself would fit the aesthetic of Smash well...and that's all the positives I have for Fallout. I'm not too familiar with Fallout, but I don't see a lot of potential for a unique moveset. I'm looking on the Fallout Wiki and there are plenty of weapons such as flamethrowers, miniguns, RPGs, lasers, etc. It could make for an interesting moveset, though Sakurai would have to get really creative since we've seen these weapons time in and time again. Also, FPS games are not popular in Japan, though Fallout does have the advantage of having an RPG system, I'm not sure if it balances it out very well. Also, Fallout 76 got very bad publicity which certainly doesn't help. Finally, there is a good chance that Sakurai would pick the playable characters first before Vault Boy.

Want: 51%

I guess I would be fine with it. I'm not a Fallout fan, though I want to give the games another try. An apocalyptic stage would be neat with tons of different hazards like waste, gas, bandits, hostile robots, etc. But in terms of a Bethesda rep, I want these next two characters a lot more.


And those that tasted the bite of his sword named him...The Doom Slayer.

Chance: 5%

I have to agree with a lot of people here. That recent interview is way too detailed and they straight up said, "Nintendo didn't contact us." It doesn't sound at all like they are deflecting. I'm still giving him a 5% chance because there is a small chance they could still be lying. Though I wouldn't count on it. It's a shame, Doom Slayer would have gotten a 60% chance from me because he had so much going for him. But that interview basically kills his chances.

Want: 100%

One of my most wanted. Doom Slayer would be such a badass character with a large arsenal of cool weapons and a focus on heavy power long range weapons and strong grabs and throws. I love Doom and I would love to see it get represented especially for it's impact on the industry. And of course, you can't forget Mick Gordon's masterpiece of a soundtrack. I give Doom Slayer a 100% want just for that, in addition to what I'm imagining to be a great and fun moveset.


Fus-Roh-Dah!

Chance: 55%

I'm gonna go confident with this one. I think the Dragonborn is one of our frontrunners right now, especially with Doom Slayer seemingly out of the running. Why am I so confident in his chances? First, Bethesda is one of the few western companies I can see Nintendo and Sakurai approaching for a character. Bethesda was one of the first few major 3rd party characters to support the Switch. Skyrim was one of the first games shown off for the Switch and Bethesda continued delivering major releases for the Switch such as Doom 2016 (and now all the major Doom games including Doom Eternal) and Wolfenstein 2. Bethesda and Nintendo seem to have a very good relationship right now.

Second, Skyrim was one of the biggest games of the last decade. It was even the first Western game to have a perfect 40/40 score on Famitsu (https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...estern-game-to-receive-a-40-40-famitsu-review). That, combined with Skyrim selling pretty well in Japan is a big deal. In fact, Skyrim is the type of game that Japanese players and players in a variety of different countries are interested in: Fantasy Action RPG that you can get lost in. Skyrim is an iconic game, in fact, it's part of an important series. The Elder Scrolls is an iconic series starting in the 90s and lasting up to this day with Elder Scrolls 6 coming sometime soon in the future (And chances are, Bethesda will try to get it on Switch). It's an important series that helped popularize fantasy games and open world games.

And don't forget, the people behind Breath of the Wild admitted that they took inspiration from Skyrim (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/how-skyrim-influenced-breath-of-the-wild/1100-6455780/). BOTW might not have been as great if it wasn't for Skyrim. That, combined with Skyrim's legacy and long-lasting popularity and cultural impact, makes the game something significant that would catch Sakurai's attention.

As for a moveset, Dovahkiin has plenty to work with. He has axes, shields, long swords, maces, and a variety of spells such as a reanimating spell that makes dead enemies fight for you, a fire spell, ice spell, a spell to enhance armor, a spell to teleport a Wolf ally next to you, paralysis spell, telekinesis, area of effect spells, etc. Sakurai could add a unique mechanic to Dovahkiin where he can enhance his weapons and even coat different spells onto them. For example, Dragonborn could have a regular mace that he can add a fire effect or paralysis effect to it. The possibilities are endless. As for skins, the automatic one will go to the iconic nordic armor set seen in so much of the promotional material and the other 7 skins can be of other species you can play as.

And that is why I think Dragonborn/Dovahkiin is one of the most likely characters right now. Honestly, if he was a japanese character, I would have given him a 70% chance. Him being a western character does hurt his chances quite a bit, but he is one of the few I can see making it in for reasons I've stated.

Want: 80%

While I would prefer Doom Slayer in terms of a Bethesda rep, I would still love to see Dragonborn make it into the biggest crossover of all time. He definitely deserves it. As I've described, he could have a ridiculously fun moveset and Skyrim is such a great game that I would love to see it represented. A skyrim stage would be great and the music would be fantastic.

Predictions:
2B - 15% (People are probably going to rate her high for some reason)
Neku - 5%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Vault Boy:

Chance: 1%
Not even a character. And there are other Bethesda reps that are far more popular.

Want: 0%
Not exactly itching for him due to not being an actual character. Also not that attached to the Fallout series, recent controversies aside.

DoomGuy:

Chance: 1%
Deconfirmed by his developer. Also tbh I think the series's violence is just a step above the other M-Rated series we have in Smash in terms of how central it is to its identity. I know others may disagree, but that's just my take.

Want: 5%
Not really that attached to the character or series. I don't really find him interesting myself.

Dovahkiin
Chance: 10%
A little better of a chance now that DOOM's out of the way. Western rep might hurt his chances though.

Want: 5%
Not attached to this character either. Sure I'd understand if he made it in but he's not on any of my lists.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about anything Bethesda. Except that they're apparently willing to hire audience members to shout nonstop at their E3 conference, but that hasn't been proven yet.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[NintenRob]

Vault Boy
Double 0
Vault Boy is the mascot of Fallout, the problem however is he's a literal mascot in series. There isn't actually a character called Vault. And it would be weird to use a cartoon to represent something like Fallout. As others said Mii Costume would be better.

Doomguy
Chance 2%
Want 20%
I think Doomguy is the Bethesda character who should be chosen. He's the grandfather of FPS. Unfortunately that interview seemed pretty damning, it goes in a lot of detail too. If not for that the score would be a lot higher.

Dovahkin
Chance 10%
Want 1%
Skyrim is a pretty major game so obviously he has a chance. And I actually played a bit Skyrim. Problem is though I didn't exactly like it that much, combat just felt to weird to what I'm use to. If he got in I might give it another shot, but the most appealing thing about the game is Mario voices a dragon.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction 2B 12%
Neku 4%

 

[3DSNinja]

No:
Chance:0%: Not happening. He's not even an actual character; he's just a mascot. One of the protags is more likely IMO.
Want:0%: I love Fallout... But vault boy isn't good representation for the series. He's not representative of any of the dark parts of the series, or hell, any of the actual games. He's just a dumb mascot character. He shouldn't be in Smash.
RIP
Chance:20%: The interview is pretty damning. But it could be fake like Grant Kirkhope's thing. And Cacomallow hasn't been debunked yet...
Want:99%: Chief and Gordon would be better, but an FPS rep could be sick. And Doom has great music.
FUS RO DAH:
Chance: 10%: I don't see it. Character is very similar to other swordfighters... Shouts could be cool, but idk, not sure on this one.
Want:75%: Skyrim is cool. I would like a skyrim rep.
Also, you should've picked better Fallout music. I'll put some in a later post

 

[Nemuresu]

Vault Boy:
Chance: 5%-Fallout barely has a presence in Nintendo consoles, and even if we go by just general appeal, it's not that great of a game series. Also, even if there was any character from that franchise, it'd be most likely any of the actual playable characters.
Want: 0%-The character isn't interesting in any fashion. Not to mention, as far as Fallout content I've witnessed, I don't think he actually has anything that can be turned into a workable moveset.

Doom person:
Chance: 0%-That one interview pretty much threw the guy's chances into a grave. If it were soemthing from last year or before, I'd probably think he stood a chance. As much as people like bringing Grant Kirkhope as an example of devs lying, thing is, that's the only case out of many where someone in a notable position ever lied like that about Smash.
Want: 50%-I suppose he could've been a fine addition had that interview not happened. Not my cup of tea, but not bad either. Plus, there aren't that many characters focused on guns outside of Samus and Snake, so the more, the merrier.

Arrow to the knee:
Chance: 10%-Yeah, even if Skyrim is a game with tons of ports, I don't count on the idea of this character coming into Smash. The game just hasn't been a hot topic for ages other than making Todd Howard claim that if people are sick of Skyrim, then they should stop buying it.
Want: 0%-Last time I was ever interested in The Elder Scrolls was a creepypasta about some cursed(?) TES4 mod I read years ago. Not even the memes interest me into playing Skyrim.

Predictions:
2B: 32.59%-She has to compete with Geno, but the fact that NieR Automata is such an acclaimed game gives her quite the prominence.
Neku: 10.48%-TWEWY is in a rather ambiguous position right now, given that we don't know how well or badly the Switch port performed, and there's not that many hints that sequel may finally come out.

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Vault Boy
Abstain on both

Doom Slayer
Chance: 1% I will give benefit of doubt, but that interview is different from Banjo case. And Doom's total lack of presence in Japan hurts his chance further.

Want: 5% I guess I am throwing pity at it, but my experience with Doom supporters has tainted my choice. And I want Master Chief far far more.

Dovahkin
Chance 25% Skyrim was popular even in Japan. It sold pretty well on Switch iirc.

Want: 30% Despite frustrating game breaking bugs, I still enjoyed Skyrim. Although he will be counted as another swordman, he can bring his own unique style.

Nomination: Agumon x 5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Vault Boy
Chance: 1%
Sakurai is a fan of the series, but I still don't think that's enough. Besides, I think Vault Boy is more of an in-universe mascot, while if we did indeed get a Fallout rep, it would probably be based on a player character setup, considering Sakurai's tendency of "protagonists first".

Want: Abstain
Don't know enough about Fallout to give a proper score. This will pretty much be my norm for this Bethesda day, actually.

Doom Slayer
Chance: 0%
The interview's tone seems pretty final. I don't think Doom Slayer is in and if we should have learned anything from the past, it's that when a dev says their character is not in Smash, they're telling the truth nine times out of ten. So I'm taking him out of the running in my list.

Want: Abstain
Same as Vault Boy, even if I do know of Doom's historical significance. I will say, though: our first FPS rep in Smash would absolutely need to be him or Chief. Otherwise it would be like having someone that isn't Ryu as our first fighting game rep.

Dovahkiin
Chance: 2%
With Doom Slayer out, the Dragonborn becomes the first in line for a Bethesda rep... or, well, he would, but the interview that disconfirms Doom Slayer also seems to imply that Bethesda as a whole, not just Id Software, talked with Nintendo about a character, meaning that all of Bethesda's characters would be pretty much disconfirmed by the same statement.

However, it's less clear cut than Doom Slayer and there's a little room for interpretation, so I'm gonna leave a little room for doubt, though not much. Overall, if we get another western rep in season 2, I don't think they're from Bethesda.

Want: Abstain
Same as the other two, though I will say that Elder Scrolls is also a historical franchise - even if I personally think Doom Slayer would be a better Bethesda choice and that there are better choices for RPG characters.

Predictions
2B: 15.3% - I predict a lot of people giving her low scores due to "no Nintendo presence"
Neku: 5.2%

Nominations
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Vault Boy

Chance - 0% - As Hero over Blue Slime has shown us, the main character will typically get in over the main protagonist. I don't see why in this case it would be any different.

Want - 40% - Not interested. I'm only really familiar with Fallout via a few video retrospectives, and the state of 76. In my opion, there are many better and more interesting characters about.


Doomguy

Chance - 0.5% - Something something interview. Seriously, though, that interview is about as close to saying "he's not in" without saying it. While there is some wriggle room for NDA, I don't think he'd be that open to it. He's as good as dead.

Want - 80% - I can respect the fact that he essentially made an entire genre of games. With the whole "Doom runs on everything" being a meme, I think it is safely to say that it more than earns its place. I can imagine him having a fun moveset, too.


Dovahkin

Chance - 2.5% - While it's been ported to hell and back, I can't tell if there really is any strong evidence for him. The same Doomguy interview has cast doubt on any Bethesda rep, so it's hard to say. While he is a bit famous, he's not hot like Joker was, either. Still, he's not quite a nobody, and he has enough that he might get in as a surprise pick.

Want - 40% -Don't find him that interesting. With no real connection having never played the game, I wouldn't be that enthused. There are many better characters I would prefer seeing over him, to the point of disappointment.


Nominations

De blob X5

 

[warpenguin55]

Vault Boy
Chance: 2%
I really can't see this one happening. As others have said, picking Vault Boy would misrepresent fallout. He's desgined like a cartoon like character and nothing else in Fallout is like that really.

Want: 10%
I don't really care about seeing vault boy in smash. I have far too many characters I'd like to see before him.


Doom Guy
Chance: 0%
Doom Guy is dead. The creators said they haven't been contacted. Fighters pass 2 has already been set, and since we have nothing on a 3rd fighters pass, i think this is the end for him.

Want: 45%
I'm a bit disappointed by the fact Doom Guy got deconfirmed. Almost none of the speculated characters for the 1st fighters pass were ones I cared about getting in Smash. If I'm not forgetting about anyone, Doom Guy was the top speculated character that I didn't really want but I would have been fine with getting.


Dovahkiin
Chance: 35%
Not a lot has changed since last I rated him. At first I dropped his chance by 5% due to Byleth meaning 1st Parties can happen. However, with Doom Guy's deconfirmation, I'm giving him some chance score back. Skyrim is still a super loved game, so it's still possible.


Want: 50%
I don't know Dovahkiin very well, but I can understand how big it could end up being if he got in. Dovahkiin really does sound like a too good to be true sort of thing though.

Noms Octopath Rep x5

 

[Calamitas]

Mr 76 Himself

Chance: 0%
I don't see it happening. I have never really heard anything about Fallout having any kind of presence in Japan, and I honestly kind of doubt that they'be too interested in it, either. There's just too much against the series.

Want: 0%
Nothing I've ever seen from Fallout has really struck me as being something that could really fit well into Smash. Hard pass on this one.

Doom Dude

Chance: 0%
The recent interview with the developers for Doom Eternal really should tell us everything. Considering their wording, and how it was brought up I honestly don't see any wiggle room for that statement. He's out.

Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but. . . Doom just doesn't appeal to me at all. I can recognize that it is an important and influental series, but I absolutely do not want to see it in Smash. Doom Guy himself also doesn't really have a terribly interesting design to me, either.

Todd Howard's Latest Stunt, Attempting to Port Skyrim to Smash

Chance: 15%
Well, the chances for this guy are better than the other ones, I'll say that. But honestly? Just because Bethesda people have mentioned that they talked to Nintendo about Smash doesn't mean that anything came off those talks. Sure, the game found some success in Japan, but I really don't think that this is the game that would make Sakurai and his team "fully" break their focus on Japanese-developed series. (I'm aware of Banjo, but let's keep in mind that that series was originally owned by Nintendo)

Want: 10%
I wouldn't hate this inclusion, I guess. But I really wouldn't be thrilled by it, either.

Nominating Octopath Traveler Rep x5

2B prediction: 23.1%
Neku prediction: 10.1%

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate 2B from NieR/Drakengard as well as Neku from The World Ends With You.

Predict Geno and Sora.

Megadoomer

----------

Music Post:

Some songs to get in the mood for each character:

2B

Spoiler: NieR: Automata Music

Neku

Spoiler: The World Ends With You Music

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

If 2B's so great why isn't there a 3B
Chance: 25%
If there's Sakurai bias and dev friendliness involved then I guess she's pretty likely, perhaps even the likeliest Square rep. Still, despite Joker, Nintendo presence will still be a factor. And honestly, I question if they would approach Square for two passes in a row. Not so much because they might be hard to work with but perhaps they'd like other teams to get their time to shine.

Want: Abstain

Nuke
Chance: 1%
Out of all Square reps in the running Neku is probably the one I consider the nichest. More relevant than Geno I suppose but he'sgot a loud supportbase behind him atleast. That Switch port of TWEWY also was quite some time ago. I doubt he would get chosen to promote that.

Want: Abstain

Geno: 47.22%
Sora: 31.97%
Reporter and Wrestler x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Shakespeare line goes here

Chance: 60%. This might seem rather strange, but hear me out. I often consider 2B to be Robot Girl Joker when it comes to her chances. Her Nintendo presence is almost damning, but at the time Joker was negotiated for he was never on Nintendo so I don't think it's a problem at all. Her game, just like his, was a release that came out to widespread acclaim and appeal. And apparently, from hearsay so I don't know how powerful these points are, apparently her game's director, Yoko Taro, is pals with Sakurai, who liked the game himself. With all these in mind, I think 2B is definitely one of the Squeenix frontrunners, especially early on. There is the issue of if she's too sexy for Smash, but I don't think she is.

Want: I haven't seen her abilities or her game in motion to any serious degree, nor have I seen a moveset video. I will abstain on the grounds that I am unaware of what she brings, how she feels. I also have not heard her game's soundtrack, and I need more exposure to Nier: Automata.

Guy that the world ends with

Chance: 5%. The good news is, the guy got his game a Switch port, which put him back in the public eye. The bad news is, 2B and Sora are from more financially successful games, Lara Croft is a household name who defined a generation, and even Geno, who I think is really unlikely at this point, at least blows this guy out of the water when it comes to hardcore fan support. And that Switch port was back when they decided on round 1, well before they'd have thought up Round 2. Overall Neku, while not a nobody, is simply outclassed by what else Squeenix has to offer.

Want: See 2B's want. However I at least saw a little bit of Nier: Automata in some top 10 lists a while back. The reveal of Twewy on Switch is basically the extent of any significant interaction with it. As a result, I'm going to abstain.

Sora and Geno are going to be contentious as absolute ****. I'm giving them the same chance score prediction: 20% on the dot. Many people are going to be believers in Sora or Geno, me I think 2B is probably the likeliest candidate.

DLC Music x 5.

 

[DanganZilla5]

2B

Chance: 5%

I don't see it happening. Sakurai bias could happen, but 2B has quite a bit going against her. First, competition from Geno, Sora, and Lara Croft. Second, I did research and discovered that none of the Drakengard games, not even any of the spinoffs including Nier Automata have ever been on a Nintendo system (unless I missed something). Sakurai did say that it's a courtesy for a character to have Nintendo presence, and to be fair he never said it was a requirement. However, looking at the roster, we have not had a character so far that didn't have at least one game on a Nintendo console. So that really hurts her chances. It's still possible because Sakurai clearly has a say in the DLC (look at Joker and especially Terry), but even with a sizable amount of fan requests, I can't see her being the next Square Enix character.

Want: 10%

She could be fun, but her series doesn't interest me. I would much rather have Geno, Sora, or Lara Croft. The only reason why I give her a 10% is because if she does get into Smash and there still ain't a port of any of the Drakengard games on any Nintendo platforms, she would open the door for Master Chief and Kratos which would be hype.


Neku from The World Is Not Enough Ends With You

Chance: 9%

Neku is kind of in a weird spot mostly because we don't know how the Switch port of TWEWY performed. Plus he is another Square character. And you know what that means? Tough competition from Geno, Sora, and Lara Croft! (If none of those 3 are not the next Square character I will take a big L). The big issue with Neku is that he is one of Square's more niche characters and his fanbase is not nearly as vocal as Geno's. I do think he has a slightly better chance than 2B because he has Nintendo history, but that's not saying much when you are facing against juggernauts like Kingdom Hearts and Tomb Raider.

Want: 30%

He would be cool, but I'm not very interested in his inclusion. And again, I want Geno, Sora, and Lara Croft in first and I think they deserve it more.

Predictions:
Geno - 40%
Sora - 40%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

2B || !2B
Chance: 50%
Honestly? I see her having way more chances than most of the Square crew, depite never being on a Nintendo console (as someone else said, neither had Joker at the time of his negotiations). Nier has had crossovers with other Square properties (like FFXIV) and other fighting games (Soulcalibur VI), but there's an even bigger number of other crossovers for mobile games and cameos (like on Gravity Rush 2 and Phantasy Star Online). Square has really been pushing the Nier train since Automata's release. Also worth noting is that Automata was a TGA nominee in its year of release (not for GOTY itself, but for Narrative, Soundtrack and Best RPG).

Plus, there's the fact that Sakurai and Taro seem to admire each other's work. This kind of thing went a long way with Snake, Sonic and (presumably) Bayonetta. The idea that she's "not CERO friendly" makes no sense, because it's not like she can't be toned down.

2B would also have Lara Croft as a contender, but I really can't see her losing that duel because of her aforementioned push from SE and Sakurai liking her game. Geno is a big question mark, being a Spirit and all, and Sora is technically Disney, so we don't really know if he would block her (though he certainly might).

So really, it's just a matter of "would Sakurai do it"? Because as far as Square is concerned, they'd have no real qualms about promoting Automata once more, the way I see it. As for Sakurai, he's the guy that basically published an article about Persona 5 on a mostly Nintendo-focused magazine and has no reservations when it comes to talking about the games he plays on other consoles.

Want: 100%
My favorite game of 2017, enough said. 2B would be a dream come true for me and I'd love seeing her cross into yet another video game world, especially the biggest video game crossover of all time. Plus, a Nier stage and Emi Evans' songs in Smash? Count me in!

Neku Sakuraba
Chance: 5%
Not the most likely of Square reps, that's for sure. Has to compete with the aforementioned 2B and Lara Croft, potentially also Geno or Sora. I'd put him on the same tier as some other Square RPGs, like Mana, Octopath or Bravely Default. I really don't think Neku stands a chance against all of these, but I will say that a Spirit event would be nice, since his game was kind of a cult hit for the DS.

Want: 15%
He would be interesting, since his archetype is kinda different from the other Square Enix choices... not to mention a stage based on Shibuya and some great tunes. But Geno, 2B and Sora will always be my go-tos as far as Square is concerned. Maybe another day, I guess.

Predictions
Geno: 13.4% -> I think most people still consider him dead because he's a Spirit
Sora: 51.3% -> I predict half the people here giving him high scores and the other half going "Disney won't let them"

Nominations
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sister NieR

Chance: 24%
2B is honestly the dream of every game dev. Despite being from a series that had never received acclaim or success, her game found both, and led to her quickly becoming an iconic, well-regarded character. She has amazing moveset potential, Square Enix are already involved with the game and they've shown willingness to include her in crossovers (see: Soul Calibur 6). The only things I can find against her is her lack of Nintendo presence (with an asterisk: she's a costume in Phantasy Star Online 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to find NieR Automata ported to the Switch soon), and potentially her lack of a future (another asterisk: who knows what'll happen with the NieR franchise? Will there be an Automata 2? Since it's mostly auteur driven, maybe 2B is very much a one and done character.)

She doesn't seem to have anything against her, which should by all means make her a frontrunner. But I think the issue lies with competition. The funny thing is, all of her main competitors have glaring disadvantages. Geno is obscure, Sora's owned by Disney, Lara Croft is Western and not homegrown, etc. And yet, they have such massive, overwhelming pros to them that I see Sakurai sidestepping those disadvantages just to get them in. Sure, Geno's obscure, but he's possibly the most demanded character right now. Sure, Sora requires licensing with Disney, but he's highly requested, and much more iconic and successful than 2B. Sure, Lara's Western, but she's one of the most iconic videogame characters ever. And honestly, I don't think Sakurai is the kind of guy to play it safe. Whereas a year ago 2B would have been shocking, now she feels safe, and the comparisons to Joker's inclusion abound and would abound.

While I'm not the kind of guy who gives two ****s about surprises, Sakurai is, and out of all the Square Enix catalogue, 2B would weirdly be the least surprising. So that's why I think she won't be the one.

Want: 90%
But if she gets in I'll be a happy customer. NieR Automata is great, and she would be wildly unique, I'd love to see how Sakurai would implement her. Plus her map (rollercoaster pls) and music would be amazing.

I don't get people

Chance: 12%
I honestly think Neku could get in. Sure, TWEWY wasn't a huge success, but it's still a must-play for the DS' library and modern RPGs in general. It got the Switch port, and there are rumors of a sequel. It would behoove Square Enix to want to promote it, and Nintendo as well, as it's bound to be Nintendo exclusive. But, to be fair, most of Square Enix's good post-Final Fantasy X RPG offerings have been on Nintendo, so it's probably also in their best interest to promote Bravely Default (which is getting a sequel) or Octopath Traveler (which sold really well so is probably getting a sequel after Bravely Default II).

Want: 85%
I'll give you that Neku isn't exactly iconic, but I wouldn't call him obscure either. Let's say recognizable, the step below iconic where your mom doesn't know him, but you probably do if you're into games. So I think he's earned a place in Smash. And honestly, like 2B, I just wanna see how he plays. Neku would be crazy, like imagine a character where all attacks are aimed like PK Thunder or Snake's Nikita. And the stage and the music would be so stylish they'd make Persona 5 look like Pictochat.

Sora and Geno predictions: 39.55%

Noms: Kiryu x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Vault Boy/Doomguy/Dovahkiin pre-2B/Neku Sakuraba

Freddy Fazbear x145
Kazuma Kiryu x140
The Blob (De Blob) x135
Crypto x120
Carmen Sandiego x120
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x105
Gex x100

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Reporter & Wrestler x65
Chun-Li x65
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x65
Decidueye x62
Meowth x58
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x57

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Big Daddy (BioShock) x45
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Ring Fit Adventurer x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Paper Mario x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25

Under 25

Giygas x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x15
Concept: Darksiders rep x15
Segata Sanshiro x15
Mii Costume: Quote x15
Terra Branford x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Kratos x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Black Shadow x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Guardian (Destiny) x5
Concept: DLC music packs x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Today's new concept is DLC music packs, with 5 noms.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain, don't care what so ever

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Nihilism:
Chance: 60%-Something tells me that she's just the second most likely Square character to come after Geno. Automata was just such an acclaimed game that I can see Nintendo trying to capitalize on that success while they still can. I really doubt that the game's absence on Switch may mean too much on her inclusion as well.
Want: Abstain. I forgot about her fighting style and my internet is getting messy, so I can't look at good gameplay videos now and hence give her a more proper score.

Guy cursed to never have a happy ending:
Chance: 10%-Not gonna lie, he's pretty unlikely on the fact that TWEWY never really became a noticeable IP. Perhaps if we were in the Brawl days he'd be a top candidate, but now, we've got more acclaimed Square characters that just dwarf him, 2B, Geno and Sora come to mind.
Want: 60%-He's a jack of all trades and the pins just make for a massive moveset potential. Elemental attacks, psychokinesis, summoning swords, meteors. He just has too much to become a real fun character.

Predictions:
Geno: 67.21%
Sora: 40.89%

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Neku
Chance 1 - Dont see this happening. Lara, Geno, Sora, Sephiroth, and 2B are all more likely and the only reason I can see Neku being the pick is if the Smash budget got cut by a lot or SE has something planned we don't know about. There's just too many characters who are more wanted and more iconic. I could see something happening for him if the scenario I wrote below plays out but being buried behind so many characters multiple different ways makes things look not good here.

Want 0 - I'd rather take all the names I listed above. Never touched TWEWY before either, so no connection to the character either. Struggling to muster up any interest in this character. Hard for me to want him when there's so many SE reps Id rather see get in first.


2B
Chance 40 - I really go back an forth on this. I do think people are overrating her chances a bit(not necessarily in here, but in general Smash speculation.) but I see a case when I think about it. Sora and Lara seem like the top tier of SE characters who aren't picked yet, but the price for them could be really high and since SE isn't known to give a lot of content to Smash, Nintendo might decide that the price is too high for a character that would come with so little. Then we move down to Geno, who likely has no plans to do anything again, Sephiroth, who already has content from his own game in which wouldn't advance the cross over, and 2B, who's game was a major hit, is getting fan support, and isn't uniconic. It's not a bad choice. I've changed my score about 5 times while writing this post out so I'm really not sure on her chances right now.

Want 50 - There's plenty of reasons for her in the game and I think they're pretty valid. I don't have any real attachment to the character and never played the game so I dont have any attachment to the character. Can't say I'd be bummed or excited if she got in

Predict:
Geno - 50%
Sora - 50%
Both the predictions could be all over the place so I'm going to go in the middle and hope it pays off

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on 2B and Neku. I don't know anything about either of them.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

2B or not 2B that is the question
Chance: 75%
Quite honestly most potential candidates for season 2 I don't consider any higher than a 50% right now as anything can happen for the pass, but still I am confident on 2B and Dante being the frontrunners for this pass. 2B is similar to Joker in that she comes from a modern game that is highly acclaimed and sold a few million dollars worldwide so that is worth promoting. Yoko Taro has been throwing her in plenty of crossovers such as Soul Calibur 6, Sword of Vermilion, FFXIV, Phantasy Star Online 2 and several others, so of course as a big crossover queen she can definitely make her way to Smash no problem. Sakurai loves the NieR/Drakengard series and he is good friends with Yoko Taro so I am sure the two of them have at least discussed the possibility of 2B being in Smash. Her only real competition comes from Geno, Sora, and Lara Croft as far as other Square Enix candidates go, but Geno being so obscure will "never" be a playable character and truth be told he is better suited to being a premium Mii outfit in the same vein as Sans and Cuphead. Sora is owned by Disney who will charge a king's ransom to having KH content in the game and will rip Nintendo off at every corner so that's unlikely. Lara Croft is her real competition and Lara has a lot going for her so it is a catfight to see who shall be the third SE rep, but I feel confident for 2B. As for lack of a Nintendo presence, that can simply be solved by negotiating a NieR Automata port for the Switch or she can simply crossover in another game on the Switch as like I said before she is a crossover queen.

Want: 100%
She and Dante are my most requested characters for the season 2 DLC. I loved NieR Automata, it wasn't a game to me, it was a real experience and I would love for NieR Automata content to make its way in Smash. Of course the best way would be to have 2B herself be a character, huh?

Neku
Chance: 10%
Definitely not one of Square's biggest IPs and he faces too much competition in 2B, Sora and Lara to be viable, but perhaps there is a chance that Square Enix could want him promoted to push the TWEWY IP, after all Smash is not only to put big names and stars in, but also to promote lesser known characters.

Want: 60%
Neku would be pretty cool, unique and has a ton of moveset potential with all the pins that he could bring.

Predict
Geno: 23.45%
Sora: 31.23%

Noms 5 x Freddy Fazbear

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Lloyd Irving
50.29% Chance - 47.85% Want
First time we rated him he got 50.92% chance and 53.37% want. Pretty similar scores overall. Last time we rated him he got 47.83% chance and 54.00% want. This was shortly after Hero and Banjo-Kazooie's reveals so I guess the slightly lower chance stemmed from the waning number of slots left. But Lloyd certainly proves that some characters are just evergreen.
With Erdrick confirmed and Akira Howard disconfirmed, this leaves Lloyd as the character with the highest chance score, first- or third-party! Watch your back, Lloyd, the last character that won this accolade was disconfirmed within the week.

KOS-MOS
8.87% Chance - 35.24% Want
She's not a rerate but a first-timer, so for the sake of saying something I'll mention that her fans came out to support her.

Phoenix Wright
43.94% Chance - 70.91% Want
First time we rated him he got 31.91% chance and 61.84% want. Joker had just been revealed at that point so maybe he was seen as a smaller deal in comparison, or maybe people were downplaying fan demand before Banjo came around. Last time we rated him he got 45.64% chance and 67.89% want. At that point he was seen as the frontrunner for Capcom, with the RE vote split between Leon and Jill and Dante being disconfirmed. As for want, his fans also came out of the woodworks to support him en masse.
And good thing they did, because they made Phoenix the most wanted third-party character rated (and second overall, after Dixie Kong).
Winner of predictions is @Velveeta Dream with a precise 44.00%

Dante
49.38% Chance - 64.23% Want
Last time we rated him he got 0.08% chance and 54.79% want. That was when we was widely seen as disconfirmed by developer statements. The noticeable rise in want could be attributed to the DMC ports widening his Nintendo audience.
Winner of predictions is Calamitas with 49.89%

Vault Boy
1.82% Chance - 20.40% Want
Another first-time rate, but for this one I got nothing to say.
Winner of predictions is Ninjaed with a precise 2.00%

Doomguy
2.86% Chance - 44.15% Want
First time we rated him he got 10.89% chance and 37.78% want. This was pre-Joker so guns were a big no-no, plus it was before the Doomabusa leak, so people overall weren't on the Doom train. Last time we rated him he got 37.24% chance and 55.59% want. This was, obviously, before the dev team said they hadn't been contacted by Nintendo. As for that want dip, I guess people like to side with a winner.
Winner of predictions is Icedragonadam with 1.33%

Dovahkiin
19.69% Chance - 47.40% Want
First time we rated him he got 15.96% chance and 38.47% want. This was pre-Joker. Last time we rated him he got 25.71% chance and 53.00% want. This was post-Terry. Honestly, I can't explain the ratings. He gets high scores when Doomguy, his competition, is seen as likely, and low scores when he isn't. Does that make sense? The only thing I can sorta explain is the second score, as at that time it was looking like Fighter 5 would be announced at TGA and Dovahkiin is a good fit. Otherwise, I'm lost. Now some people seem to consider him disconfirmed because Doomguy is too? Huh???
Winner of predictions is DrifloonEmpire with 22.53%

Holders of extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Calamitas 5
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 33
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 100
Ninjaed 5
Perkilator 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
@Velveeta Dream 5
Wunderwaft 10

 

[Icedragonadam]

2B or Not to....*died for overused joke*

Chance: 45%

She's a viable candidate for the next Square Enix rep and one of my 6 predictions here. Nier Automata has become a very successful game so 2B is an absolute darkhorse character. She'd be repeating Bayonetta in being a female character in a Platinum developed game that no one expected.

Want: 70%

She'd be an interesting addition to the roster. Especially with the pod she uses in the game.

The World or Smash Ends with Neku

Chance: 15%

Another interesting option. TWEWY is probably the Phoenix Wright of Square Enix. But of course he has competition with the likes of 2B and Lara Croft who are bigger and more known characters than Neku. But he still has that small of chance though.

Want: 50%

Don't really care one way or another with him. He'll probably be interesting though.

Geno Prediction: 12.44%
Sora Prediction: 24.44%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x10