Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ProfPeanut]

Incineroar

Chance: 20%
He's a fighter archetype yet to really be recognized in Smash, which counts for something. But Smash has skipped over at least three final-form Fire starters with fighting motifs already, and Incineroar doesn't really stand out from them enough to really buck this trend. I'm not convinced either that Sakurai would see more potential in him that the likes of Decidueye, Mimikyu, Tapu Koko, or even Nihilego.

Want: 1%
We're passing up Blaziken for this guy? That makes little sense to me.


Prediction:
Primarina: 7.5%

Nominations:
Concept: 4-6 Newcomers x10

 

[Opossum]

Incineroar.

Chance: 80%
I believe Vergeben. The other 20% is if it isn't Incineroar.

Want: 50%
I like Incineroar. There are just other Pokémon I like more.

Nominating Reinhardt trophy x10

 

[BluePikmin11]

I do not deny that Incineroar is a notably promoted Pokemon in that movie and that the anime seems to imply plot-wise that Ash's Torracat will turn into its final-evolution soon, but my biggest beef with Incineroar is the moveset potential. Sakurai from Brawl and onwards has paid close attention to choosing newcomers that have unique traits. With Charizard and Bowser being planned for Ultimate, I fail to see how Incineroar would catch Sakurai's eye. There is the wrestling part of him that makes Incineroar somewhat distinct, but I do not believe the trait alone will be able to make Sakurai meaningfully distinguish him from the veterans I mentioned when constructing a moveset and seeing the Pokemon's concept art.

We already have characters that have a play-style of being a powerful heavyweight using a degree of fire-based attacks. And to a small degree, Bowser is sort of a wrestling type character already with his grappling Side-B. I understand why people would move to predicting Incineroar after Verge's new information, but I have trouble picturing that it would happen for real when considering Sakurai's emphasis on character individuality. It is part of why I feel very sketchy about predicting a Pokemon newcomer that is not Mimikyu, Decidueye, or Lycanroc. No other Pokemon after those choices make much sense to me, when considering the Pokemon criteria Sakurai gave in a Smash 4 interview.

------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Opossum]

I do not deny that Incineroar is a notably promoted Pokemon in that movie and that the anime seems to imply plot-wise that Ash's Torracat will turn into its final-evolution soon, but my biggest beef with Incineroar is the moveset potential. Sakurai from Brawl and onwards has paid close attention to choosing newcomers that have unique traits. With Charizard and Bowser being planned for Ultimate, I fail to see how Incineroar would catch Sakurai's eye. There is the wrestling part of him that makes Incineroar somewhat distinct, but I do not believe the trait alone will be able to make Sakurai meaningfully distinguish him from the veterans I mentioned when constructing a moveset and seeing the Pokemon's concept art.

We already have characters that have a play-style of being a powerful heavyweight using a degree of fire-based attacks. And to a small degree, Bowser is sort of a wrestling type character already with his grappling Side-B and maybe his Down-B. I understand why people would move to predicting Incineroar after Verge's new information, but I have trouble picturing that it would happen for real when considering Sakurai's emphasis on character individuality. It is part of why I feel very sketchy about predicting a Pokemon newcomer that is not Mimikyu, Decidueye, or Lycanroc. No other Pokemon after those choices make much sense to me, when considering the Pokemon criteria Sakurai gave in a Smash 4 interview.

------

x5 Hanafuda character

How is the Bowser Bomb, in any way, shape, or form, a wrestling move?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Oh yeah, I forgot to exclude that in my updated analysis. I was talking to some friends about whether or not Bowser's Down-B was a wrestling move on Discord. Turns out it is not. Sorry about that.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

How is the Bowser Bomb, in any way, shape, or form, a wrestling move?

One could say it's a body slam, from a certain point of view...

 

[UserKev]

I'll just participate for right now since there aren't many characters I want anymore.

Incineroar -

Chance:
A good 70% at the most now that the leak really has me distracted.

Want:
The same as above, 70%. His design doesn't bother me and I can see uniqueness in him. He's also really the only other gen 7 Pokémon I can look at as exceptional while the rest I will always have a certain dislike to and question.

 

[CometX-ing]

Incineroar

Chances: 40%
Yeah, gonna take the route of ignoring the leak completely for this one.

First off, Incineroar has some pretty steep competition in terms of Pokemon being promoted in the anime. Decidueye, Mimikyu and Lyconroc Dusk all have substantial reasons for inclusion over him, the latter two being that they are actually present in the anime. I haven't been keeping up with the anime (may binge it but I digress) but I know that both Mimikyu and Lyconroc Dusk take a significant role in the anime. Lyconroc is one of Ash's main Pokemon and Mimikyu is Team Rockets latest partner in crime. Rowlet also is also present, and while he may not have evolved It could still be enough for Decidueye to get in (there is also the small possibility that Rowlet would get in on his own. Incineroar also appeared in the "I Choose You" movie, but it wasn't a staring role like past Pokemon that got into Smash.

There is also the matter of popularity, and before you say it, yes I know the poll took was released early this year. But given that it would take some time to produce a whole magazine (Nintendo Dreams which the poll came in) I imagine TPCi had that info for some time. Incineroar isn't lacking in popularity too much, not like Decidueye is anyway, but he's not even in the top ten either. Sakurai said that one of of the things he looks for in terms of choosing Pokemon (barring Greninja) is what is popularity and anime presence, Incineroar really has neither to a very strong degree. Far and away the most likely I would say is Lyconroc Dusk as he has both, but any of the not already de-confirmed Pokemon that ranked highly in the Nintendo Dream poll have a good chance. I feel like it goes without saying, but popularity have a big influence on the anime and how Pokemon are treated going forward. There is a reason why Charizard, Metwo and Lucario get as much shine as they two in Pokemon media.

Want: 10%
I won't act like I'm not bias in terms of who I want as the Pokemon rep, so I'm say it straight. Despite my not wanting Decidueye as a Pokemon rep, I can at least conceded that there is potential for something really unique with him. Incineroar, based off of what I have seen him do just doesn't do it for me. Not only is he imo the least interesting design wise, he's also pretty meh in terms of fighting style. There are plenty of Sun and Moon Pokemon that I would rather have, most of all Primarina.

Nominations:
Klonoa x10

 

[Erimir]

It feels like we've been scraping the bottom of the barrel lately/only rating characters from series with huge casts that make them harder to predict (Pokemon, Fire Emblem), so I've been abstaining. There isn't a whole lot to say about Pokemon since I haven't played one since the first two generations, aside from saying the series is a juggernaut and pretty likely to get a newcomer. Likewise with Fire Emblem... personally, I think it's overrepresented at this point (Fire Emblem does fine, but it's not a juggernaut and has one of the lowest sales/fighter ratios in the game*) and being the only first-party title to get a DLC newcomer means it also has gotten representation more recently than any other first-party series. Probably also noteworthy that Corrin debuted after Smash 4 released, which usually would put a character in a good position for the following Smash game (see: Inklings, Shulk, etc.). So it might be that since they gave FE a DLC newcomer, Sakurai doesn't think FE needs an SSBU newcomer. Certainly that's how *I* feel anyway.

Spoiler: Sales/Fighter ratios for Smash 4

Based on sales before the release of Smash 4, for first-party titles only. Since Fire Emblem Fates released simultaneously with Corrin as DLC, sales for that game are not included either. (Virtual Console and digital sales can't be represented either, but presumably VC sales would be particularly helpful for Earthbound since it is more popular now than it was when it released, which is why original SNES copies can sell for hundreds of dollars.)

0.9m - Xenoblade Chronicles
1.0m - Earthbound
1.0m - Kid Icarus
1.3m - ROB
1.3m - Fire Emblem
3.8m - Pikmin
4.3m - Punch-Out
5.8m - Star Fox
5.8m - F-Zero
8.8m - Metroid
11.2m - Kirby
14.2m - Legend of Zelda
19.1m - Yoshi
22.6m - Wario
23.4m - Animal Crossing
28.3m - Duck Hunt
34.7m - Donkey Kong
36.6m - Pokemon
43.2m - Wii Fit
47.5m - Game & Watch
49.9m - Mii/Wii Sports/Tomodachi
72.3m - Mario series

So you can see why I can think Pokemon generally will get newcomers but think perhaps Fire Emblem won't after an entry where they got 3 newcomers. Zelda has gone multiple entries without increasing its roster size, after a large 4 fighter increase in Melee.

Of course, if you start out by saying "everyone is here" before considering newcomers, the ratios change but it doesn't affect the overall order much.

But now we're back to one where I can have an opinion on the specific character, rather than the series.

So... Tetra!

...Oh, I ran out of time because I was compiling those numbers.

Incineroar...

I dunno about Pokemons. It's probably getting a newcomer, but it could be any of a number.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Incineroar
Chance: 20%
A currently relevant Pokemon for the games and anime automatically makes Incineroar a real possibility. However, I just don't see this being Sakurai's choice for a newcomer. I think Lycanroc or Tapu Koko are more likely.

Want: 10%
While Litten is cool, I really don't like Incineroar, easily the lowest of the Alolan starter final forms and one of the lowest starter final forms across the series for me. I would still prefer it to Mimikyu, but I'd prefer almost any other Alolan candidate.

Style Savvy character x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Fire Wrestling Cat

Chance: 25%
I think at this point there are two possibilities. Either Vergeben is right, or there’s no Pokémon newcomer. The latter has 50%, while the former has two likely candidates in Incineroar and Primarina (hence, 25% each).

Want: Not a huge fan of adding a Pokémon of the day, only for it to be forgotten or make no impact. Not saying Incineroar is (but he doesn’t seem to be very popular either). Abstain

Primarina prediction: 20%

Nominations: I think we’re doing 5 now, so NintenX5

 

[Mrs.Milky]

incineroar
Chance: abstain.
Want: 15% I don't mind for a Pokemon character, but they make me the least excited.

Nominations: Zero x10(or x5?)

 

[VexTheHex]

Incineroar
Chance - 75%

People really are quick to make some assumptions that directly contradict the other likely pokemon they place above. Let me destroy some of these weak arguments against Incineroar.


-We already have a fire Pokemon!

- We also already have a fairy and electric type (x2) for Tapu Koko.

- Mimikyu also suffers from having a fairy already in the game and the other Pikachu knock off.

- We also already have a grass type in terms of Decidueye. And flying archer? I think we got two of those. And we even got 3 green archers.

- Lycanroc is the only one I see people throwing around that doesn't have direct instances of his uniqueness already in the game. Even so we do already have a walking canine with and on all fours with so he isn't exactly 100% unique. And for all fours... how exactly will he hold and use weapons? Duck Hunt Dog had a Duck added to the character to make sense.


-Move Set Potential! We have Bowser, Wario, and Captain Falcon for wrestler like fighting?!?!

- Oh sorry, I forgot we didn't have more than one swordsman. ultshulk:

- And there's clearly only one hammer user.

- One arm cannon user. Or general fancy gun blasters.

- Or fist fighter.

- And magic users/psychic. ultlucas:

- One Princess as well.

- and ninja.

So ugh ya, even if some of the others step mildly on his toes, I'm not exactly seeing where that's ever been an issue especially since we don't even have a flat out wrestler especially with claws and fire. And again Decidueye is a flying archer. and .


- He isn't the most popular!!!

- But he IS more popular than Decidueye. In fact, both Incineroar and Litten are more popular than Decidueye. Lycanroc falls far behind as well. And Primarina also stars above all of these. Mimikyu is the one people mention that actually beats out Incineroar.

Also can people make up their minds on this. Mimikyu's popularity means nothing cause it was too early for them to know who was popular!!! And this is followed by Incineroar's popularity isn't at the top, so he clearly wouldn't be picked. So ya... ugh... ya. People are very willy washy on this popularity argument for Gen 7. Either it matters and Mimikyu and Rowlet > Incineroar and Primarina > > > Decidueye. Or it doesn't and the ones that had more to their concept artwork and got pushed harder in the anime matter which goes more to Lycanroc > Incineroar and Mimikyu > Rowlet > > > Decidueye and Primarina,



Want - 100%
I was getting sick of the Decidueye band wagon of NOBODY ELSE WILL GET IN CAUSE GRASS STARTER which got trampled by Ivysaur's return. I was rooting for Mimikyu back then but with Pichu's sudden revival at the hand of Sakurai's necromancy... I got to say Incineroar is sitting pretty and I like it. Fire wrestler tiger is pretty cool in my book. Now I like Primarina a lot as well, but I feel the fire cat makes more sense in a game like Smash. Now there is still a part of me hoping for some left field pick for Pokemon that I actually like that will also throw people off their rockers, but Incineroar is my "obvious" options pick currently.


Noms 5x Pikmin Newcomer

 

[Cetus]

Chance-30%
The one thing that holds me back is Charizard's mere existence and the backlash he received from his reveal. since they're both probably going to be slow, big, heavies. Gen 7 pokemon representation is the biggest thing I'm factoring into this, as well as his general concept and popularity. Not gonna factor the leak in since that's a bit iffy but I do hope it's true.

Want-90%
Decidueye's boring as hell imo. Incineroar's one of my favorite designed pokemon in Alola. His design just reeks of personality which every other pokemon rep lacks. I'd prefer papa roar's daddy smile over Decidueye's standard blank stare anyday. Docked 10% because I think it might be a tad redundant with Charizard in terms of playstyle.

<3

Nominating second Xenoblade rep X5

 

[Artix]

Incineroar

Chance: 20%
I'm still skeptical about Vergeben's statement, but even then, I don't think it's going to be Incineroar. Usually, it's either Mimikyu or Lycanroc that are more likely as Gen 7 Rep other than Decidueye.

Want: 10%
I really don't like Incineroar at all. I pretty much would prefer Mimikyu, Lycanroc or Decidueye (if Vergeben's statement is not true, which I'm hoping it is) to represent Gen 7.

Nominations:
Saber Artoria (Fate) x5

 

[Erureido]

Aw shoot, I completely forgot to post for Tetra's day. She's among my most wanted characters for Smash and is one of my top picks for a Zelda newcomers alongside Revali, but I have lots of doubts about her showing up in the game.

Anyways, onto Incineroar.

Incineroar

Chance: 35%

I've been doubtful about Generation 7 getting a newcomer following Smash Ultimate's spotlight in E3, but if Sakurai were to choose an Alola Pokemon to be added to the roster, I think Incineroar is among the most likely. From the concept art alone, it says a lot about how it can fight and how unique it could be compared to other fighters with its wrestler/grappling fighting style. It even received lots of promotion in the anime, like having some decent spotlight in I Choose You for one. Competition with other Alola Pokemon is the biggest issue that comes to mind. The recent Vergeben rumor that came out a few days ago could also boost his chances, but I feel a bit hesitant to trust that particular one.

Want: 35%

It's my least favorite of the Alola starters, so I'm not very interested in seeing it in Smash. However, Smash doesn't have a true wrestler/grappler in its roster at the moment, and Incineroar seems to be the right kind of fighter to fill that niche. Thus, I'm not completely opposed to the idea. I still have other Alola Pokemon I'd prefer seeing in Smash (namely Primarina and Tapu Koko).

------

Predictions:

Primarina (Pokemon): 21.43%

Sadly, I don't see her achieving a particularly high chance score compared to the other Alola Pokemon we rated because the previous ones are more popular when it comes to Smash speculation, not to mention they have more promotion going for them. Still, I wouldn't completely rule out Primarina though. More on that tomorrow (I guess my post for tomorrow will be longer than usual).

------

Nominations

Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney): x10

 

[CometX-ing]

Mimikyu also suffers from having a fairy already in the game and the other Pikachu knock off.

Jigglypuff really doesn't represent Fairy types as she was retroactively changed and she really doesn't use any fairy type moves. So, she's only a fairy type in title alone. Also, Mimikyu wouldn't be a Pikachu knock off.

 

[Misery Brick]

Incineroar
Chance: 47%
Pokemon is usually guaranteed a spot on the roster, however unlike other generations or iterations in the series, this is largely up in the air. After all, we've received three veterans from previous Smash iterations in this game. Yet, Incineroar has a very good chance at making it on the roster, as he's not only a starter evolution, but also has been featured in various promotional material which makes him someone Game Freak would be very willing to push for Smash Ultimate. Just keep in mind that popularity isn't something to consider as Smash Ultimate, like Smash 4, wouldn't be able to use market data to determine who would be their popular pick.
However, he faces direct competition from other standouts from this generation of Pokemon, such as Rowlet/Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and even Ultra Beasts. Not only to mention possible competition from Hoenn Pokemon as the finalization of the project plan was after the release of ORAS.
Relatively speaking, Incineroar has a high chance given he's a Pokemon from the franchise's 20th anniversary, but as an individual Pokemon he could be one of a dozen to be selected. This docks his chance by quite a lot as he's not the generation's icon, nor does it have one.

Want: 35%
I'm not opposed to him being in the game, but I don't necessarily have any connection or want for this Pokemon. It'd be nice to see how some dark move effects would be interpreted in Smash, and how Sakurai would make his moveset compelling as a possible grappler character, I'm just apathetic beyond that. I rather see someone like Decidueye or Lycanroc, as they do have innate traits leading to something interesting outside of typing, while Incineroar would be another bipedal character with fire attacks.
I'm not against him nor do I really want him, but if he's in I'd welcome him as the Alolan rep.

Nominations:
Chorus Kids x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Lucha Tigre

Chance 8%
Fairly likely, I'm just not buying into this whole leak vibe around that one dude. I also never really got into the Decidueye hype either... Not really seeing either of them to be honest. Primarina is the most popular third evo and Rowlet is most popular so... why not Rowlet? Who said Pokemon characters have to all be humanoid third evo starters?

Want 5%
I like it over Decidueye, but it'd still be a fairly meh inclusion to me. There's probably at least fifty pokemon I'd be more invested in seeing playable in smash.

Nominations
Viridi x10

 

[DaUsername]

Wait, there was an Incineroar leak? Why wasn't I informed of this? This stuff needs to be more well documented.
Also, TCT~Phantom will Wednesday's direct result in any schedule changes?

Anyway, percentages
Chance: 45%
The guy who hasn't been wrong yet says he's in his competition isn't in so I choose to believe it he's more likely.
Want: 1%
I don't really like Incineroar that much, especially compared to the other starters. I guess he could be fun to play as, though.

The other starter prediction: 14%
Noms: All-star versus x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Incineroar

Chance: 10%
This is ignoring the recent Vergeben leak.
I feel like he wouldn't be unique enough to be chosen. We already have Charizard as a fire type heavyweight. And there's still some competition for this cat even if what Verg said is true.

Want: ABSTAIN

All in on Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voices

Primarina: 14.23%

 

[NeonBurrito]

With Vergeben saying that the Gen VII Pokemon isn't Decidueye, Lycanroc, or Mimikyu, I just feel the need to post this.

I feel like people are really sleeping on the possibility of Incineroar, but that's just me...

Anyway,

Incineroar

Chance - 20% (ignoring Vergeben)

Even though I just got cocky because of Vergeben, I'm ignoring the Vergeben "leak" here, simply because I'm not really sure about it as of late. His claims are starting to seem rather baseless to me. To be quite frank however, that's another plate of cookies for another glass of milk.

Anyway, Incineroar seems to be pretty pushed in terms of Gen VII Pokemon. I've already talked about it a bit here, while discussing Decidueye:

In terms of popularity, Rowlet does great! First place! Tons of merchandise! But Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
In terms of Decidueye's popularity, he falls behind the other Alolan starters, with Primarina, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, and Incineroar all out placing it.

Well, what about in the anime? Once again, phenomenal placing by Rowlet! Look at all those episodes! But once again, Rowlet isn't Decidueye.
Decidueye appears in one episode. One. In the episode, he gets crushed by Incineroar.

There's no movies, no role as one of Ash's star Pokemon, nothing. Hell, from leaked artwork, we've seen that Ash's Litten will be evolving into an Incineroar, while Rowlet remains a Rowlet. Its claim to fame is that it is related to the most popular Pokemon of the generation. Decidueye is riding off of Rowlet's popularity, and nothing else. It would honestly make more sense for Game Freak to put in Rowlet over Decidueye.

He's pretty popular, has big anime appearances, Ash is planned to get one, all that good stuff.

However, I'm still of the belief that Mimikyu and Lycanroc are more likely, simply because they have everything Incineroar has, but more of it. More popularity, more anime appearances, more relevant in their actual games, all that.

Want - 0%

There's a lot of cool Gen VII Pokemon, but I can't really bothered to see Incineroar. I'm already not a huge fan of the guy; Decidueye is my Alola starter of choice, and I feel like he'd kind of just be real similar to Bowser, with both being fire-based character with some grappling / wrestling-based abilities.

Also, I feel like I've kind of just reached a point were I'm just worn out on Pokemon, both in terms of speculation and the series as a whole. I'd really just rather not see him, or pretty much any Pokemon newcomer at this point. However, I'm also a huge hypocrite, because I'm nominating Poke Floats.

Nominations:
[Stage] Poke Floats x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wait, there was an Incineroar leak? Why wasn't I informed of this? This stuff needs to be more well documented.
Also, TCT~Phantom will Wednesday's direct result in any schedule changes?

Anyway, percentages
Chance: 65%
The guy who hasn't been wrong yet says he's in, so I choose to believe it.
Want: 5%
I don't really like Incineroar that much, especially compared to the other starters. I guess he could be fun to play as, though.

The other starter prediction: 14%
Noms: All-star versus x10

There wasn’t, Vergeben just said that while there will be a new Pokémon, it won’t be Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc. Hence, Incineroar is looking very likely.

 

[NintenRob]

Incineroar
Chance 8%
I'm still 50/50 on a new Pokemon altogether, and I have a lot of doubts about getting another starter, especially this one. Even if Verg is right, Tapu Koko has so much more to its name. And from a starter stand point, Rowlet is much more popular. And that's not even touching Ultra Beast and Alolan forms
Want 0%
I thought this was such a hideous design from the moment I first saw it. I really regret evolving Torracat in my second play through of Gen 7. It is quiet easily my least favourite fully evolved Fire starter.

Nominate Daroach xMax

 

[BlueMagician]

Incineroar

Chance: 1.1%
Although a starter would normally have a bonus to their chances, the most unexpected obstacle came in the form of Ridley, who in Smash is a fire-wielding command grappler. Incineroar has other overlap with Bowser and DK as well, though that's less of a problem. I mainly think the team didn't want to develop two new fighters too similar to each other.

It's still reasonable to expect a Gen 7 rep, but even then there are many other contenders. Though it got a good reception, the timing of Gen 7 might be a problem.

If they held off on deciding a Gen 7 rep, then Incineroar is at a disadvantage as support for it didn't build until later.

Want: 24%
It has a Lariat. I'm not indifferent to it... just, it's not my first thought.

Nominations:
Viridi x 10

 

[Awakining]

Incineroar:

Chance: 60%

I generally don't trust leaks until the evidence is overwhelming. Therefore, Vergeben's latest post has little impact on my prediction. However, what cannot be ignored is the fact that Incineroar has a lot going for it. Specifically, our feline friend wields the powerful combination of both fan and company backing, and this ace in its sleeve will only appreciate as its anime presence continues to develop. It also doesn't hurt that Incineroar embodies an archetype which smash is currently devoid of, which intrinsically increases its value when considering fighters from a gameplay standpoint.

Want: 100%

Bring on the wrestler cat. I love the playstyle in other fighters and would relish the chance to see it in action in Smash. I don't mind Incineroar's design either, (in fact, I'd say it's a bit over-hated, but that's a can of worms for another day) especially in comparison to some of the other choices for gen-VII representation, and it only competes with Buzzwole for my choice of an Alolan newcomer.

 

[Deleted member]

Incineroar
Chance: 35%
Want: 15%

Among the Alola starters, I just prefer Decidueye.


Noms:
Concept: Target Test and Platform Test stage builder x10

 

[skylanders fan]

Incenoroar
chance
the final evoloution of a starter has been added in the past 2 smash games with in brawl and in smash 4 so I think they will keep the trend for that this game.Poplio final evoloution would be the hardest to do and seems to be the least popular so I don't think we will see him. But between decidye and Incenoroar I could see it going either has Decideye was the only Pokemon of his Generation to be playable in Pokken giving litten a helper pokemon postion. But Incenoroar is heavly adevertised in media and would be the fire type solo ala charizard in smash 4 replacment
50% its either him or Decideye

want
one of my most wanted. Never thought he had a chance but with charizard back to pokemon trainer he has a shot.
100%

nomination
stage poke floats x5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Incineroar.

Chance: 80%
I believe Vergeben. The other 20% is if it isn't Incineroar.

Want: 50%
I like Incineroar. There are just other Pokémon I like more.

Nominating Reinhardt trophy x10

Wait Vergeben "leaked" this too? Where can I find all he has "leaked"?

As for my own ratings.

Chance: 33%

Better than most give him, yet nothing special as he doesn't really stand out as much as the rest of the playable Pokemon cast.

Want: 15%

I care little for him, but he has a interessting potential playstyle. He's way better than Decidueye tho.

 

[Takasmash]

Inciniroar
Chance 80%
Ever sense I heared the verg confirms that he got source that Decidueye Mimikyu and Lycanroc they wont be in smash roster. Plus Inciniroar is way more poplaur than Decidueye and Inciniroar evolve in the anime into Torracat.
Want 100%
Inciniroar is my most wanted Pokemon for the next smash he full a personalty we never have a cat tiger wrestler in smash. I used to want Decidueye but the more I look at him he a owl version of Greninja.

 

[DaUsername]

There wasn’t, Vergeben just said that while there will be a new Pokémon, it won’t be Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc. Hence, Incineroar is looking very likely.

Whoops, didn't know that.
Guess I'll change my percentages, then.

 

[Opossum]

Wait Vergeben "leaked" this too? Where can I find all he has "leaked"?

As for my own ratings.

Chance: 33%

Better than most give him, yet nothing special as he doesn't really stand out as much as the rest of the playable Pokemon cast.

Want: 15%

I care little for him, but he has a interessting potential playstyle. He's way better than Decidueye tho.

He said we're getting an Alola Pokémon and that it isn't Decidueye, Lycanroc, or Mimikyu. Incineroar just seems like the most likely remaining option to me.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Incineroar:

Chances: 50%

This is a gamble. We're not sure what Pokemon we are going to get and ignoring the Vegetable leaks, Incineroar has some steep competition. Mimikyu, Decidueye, and Lycanroc are some of the common requested Pokemon for a 7th rep. i do believe, however, that Ash's Torracat is going to be evolving soon possibly during the Pokemon League. That will easily give it some exposure to be the latest on Ash's team to be in a Smash game. We already got Pikachu and Greninja from him, Pichu was an easy to make clone and popular 2nd gen, Puff was popular in the anime, Mewtwo is Mewtwo, and Lucario became one of the new faces of the later generations.

Want: 100%

Even though I'm not crazy about another fire type making it right now, Incineroar does provide a style that Smash haven't done yet: Wrestling. As a wrestling fan, I believe that Incineroar would be able to make a very unique moveset here



Nominations: Blaze the Cat x5

 

[Kotor]

Incineroar

Chance: 45%
Want: 90%

Incineroar's not just a wrestler, but a heel wrestler to be precise. A "heel" in the wrestling world means you're a villain. The opposite of the baby face (good guy). We can have Incineroar cheat to gain the upper hand against his opponents. Ash's Torracat will likely evolve into Incineroar in the future. Part of my reason for wanting Incineroar was because I picked Litten in Moon. I didn't have a desired pick at first when the 1st staged starters were revealed. Everyone loved Rowlet, so I wasn't gonna get him, and I was indifferent towards Litten and Popplio. Among my circle, I ended up with Litten because my friends picked Rowlet and Popplio respectively. Once it was revealed Incineroar would have a wrestling gimmick, my attitude towards the fire cat was adjusted in favor of it. If part of your desire for wanting Decidueye or Primarina is because they were your starter, by all means keep supporting them.

While Verge claimed neither Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Lycanroc would be the Gen VII newcomer, he didn't say it was Incineroar (Unless he clarified it was Incineroar. I'm staying in the dark until the Direct this Wednesday). Incineroar was touted around here because people here find him controversial.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Incineroar

Chance: 40%

Completely ignoring the leaks, Incineroar's chances haven't been bad (40% is high for a character when the newcomer count will be noticeably lower than in the past).

First up, we have the focus Game Freak has been giving it. There's no doubt that GF likes the thing; it's the only Alolan starter to appear in a feature-length film as of now with the role of the rival/antagonist's ace. It is also the ace of the Masked Royal, and serves as a foil to Ash's Torracat. Speaking of Torracat, there's no denying it has had a big focus of the anime and was given an emotional/sympathetic debut and is hinted to possibly grow into an Incineroar itself.

Then you have game support, in which Incineroar benefited the most of the three starters from the move tutors in Ultra Sun/Moon. Then later it got Intimidate as its Hidden Ability, which has lead its use in competitive play to skyrocket to the point where it had held the title of most-used in VGC for some time.

It has seen a good deal of merchandise and a focus in the TCG, so that helps it quite a bit as well.

Also, it's been said that it is Masuda's favorite Gen 7 Pokemon, with Ohmori's favorite being Primarina and Iwao liking Dusk Lycanrock.

As for the fan reception, it's been a mixed bag, though I think many underestimate it. In 2017, it held the spot of "Favorite in Pokemon Refresh" on the Global Link website for quite some time. As mentioned before, it's also dominating in VGC format competitive battling, and has even held the top position for at least a few months. Then there is the Japanese poll, which ranked it in the top 15 Gen 7 (including Alolan forms) Pokemon, and while not in the top 10 (unless you exclude the alternate form for the Gen 1 Pokemon), it did do very well.

As for Smash, it does have unique things to bring. Being a wrestler, it could easily fit the dedicated grappler trope many fighting games have that has not been in Smash yet. keep in mind, I'm not saying Smash needs a grappler, or that Incineroar would be guaranteed this role should it get in, but there is something for it to bring. In addition, its signature move, Darkest Lariat, ignores defenses of its target in-game, which could be translated to something gimmicky in Smash. Wrestling Heel tactics could also be included to make it feel like an underhanded fighter (who wouldn't love smashing a folding chair over someone's head in-game?).

Overall, it is at least a very strong contender to make it in, if not one of the front-runners.

Want: 100%

Ever since this thing leaked back in 2016, I had been hoping it was real, and when it was confirmed, I was elated. Everyone has that one Pokemon that speaks to them, and this one is mine. Being a wrestling villain, big cat and nod to a classic manga series, there is a lot of fun in this creature and it just explodes with personality whenever it's on screen. It would be a very fun Smash fighter, if for just its charm alone, and if it can bring Pro Wrestling abilities to the game, even better.

 

[Quetzal77]

Incineroar
Chance: 40%
Still think Decidueye, Lycanroc, or Tapu Koko are more likely. But Incineroar has a chance for sure.

Want: 0%
Just an uninspired design imo. I think the others I mentioned above would make for more interesting fighters too.

Nominations: Medusa x 5

 

[Smasher 101]

Incineroar

Chance: ABSTAIN

I kind of lean towards believing that leak, and if it's real then I think Incineroar would be the most likely choice. I'm still not quite sure how to rank it though, so I'm just going to skip this one as of now.

Want: 75%

I'm still a supporter of Decidueye, but I came close to picking Litten in my run, and honestly I'd definitely take Incineroar over just about all of the other popular choices. I think he'd be a fun fighter.

Nominations: Heihachi x5/10, whichever

 

[Souldin]

My comment might be a little rushed and featherbrained today, so apologies in advance...

Incineroar (Pokémon series)
Chances: 34%

I do not think we'll get a Pokémon newcomer this SSB. I figured I should state that first to explain why I've given Incineroar such low chances in comparison to more obscure characters. This is actually roughly where I'm placing a lot of Pokémon this time around, again, because I do not think we are getting a Pokémon newcomer.​

There are reasons for believing that the pattern of a Pokémon newcomer is to be broken with this SSB, and not just because of the limited newcomer expectation. Timing is an important factor, with the current belief being that planning for this SSB was finished end of 2015/early 2016, as well as the belief that the roster has had an impact on the character inclusion. Pokémon Sun and Moon was yet to be released in both cases, so any Gen 7 Pokémon has neither of the two benefiting factors, add onto the fact that this SSB will be releasing closer to Gen 8 than anything (which I also don't see happening, at least until DLC). There is also the factor that we've already received a ton of playable Pokémon through everyone returning, so I see the focus being elsewhere in terms of newcomers, unless a particular Pokémon gives Sakurai a truly unique move-set idea.​

​

Of course, that is just my view on a Pokémon newcomer (more specifically Gen 7) as a whole; what about Incineroar specifically? Well it has things going for it; those anime leaks suggest that Incineroar and the other starter's were finalised early on, with perhaps enough time for Sakurai to pull a Greninja. Incineroar does look like a natural born fighter and a wrestling style has plenty of potential for unique fighting style and presentation. Of course, Incineroar also has to compete with the other starter trio, there already being a heavy weight and fully evolved Fire Type Pokémon playable, along with competing against more heavily promoted Gen 7 Pokémon such as Mimikyu, the Rockruff line, the UBs, Type: Null, etc.​

Want: 26%

Well... Incineroar is a first party character, there's that at least. I also started off with Incineroar, and would certainly prefer it playable over the more popular starter suggestion of Decideueye. I do feel there are better Gen 7 choices though (I do not care one drop for UBs, but I do feel Nihilego would be a most fascinating choice) and overall would prefer there to not be any Pokémon newcomers. There are tons and tons of Nintendo series without playable representation, along with represented Nintendo series that could do with greater representation; both of which I feel have plenty of interesting characters and styles to offer up. To see yet another Pokémon added would always be disappointing, even if I like the specific Pokémon themselves (Kricketune is my favourite Pokémon, but I'd never try to suggest it for SSB, I see no reason for it to be playable)​

Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist
I see that Kamek has gotten through to rating day. I'll have to think of someone else to nominate alongside Fatal Frame Protagonist for the next time I comment here.

 

[Opossum]

My comment might be a little rushed and featherbrained today, so apologies in advance...

Incineroar (Pokémon series)
Chances: 34%

I do not think we'll get a Pokémon newcomer this SSB. I figured I should state that first to explain why I've given Incineroar such low chances in comparison to more obscure characters. This is actually roughly where I'm placing a lot of Pokémon this time around, again, because I do not think we are getting a Pokémon newcomer.​

There are reasons for believing that the pattern of a Pokémon newcomer is to be broken with this SSB, and not just because of the limited newcomer expectation. Timing is an important factor, with the current belief being that planning for this SSB was finished end of 2015/early 2016, as well as the belief that the roster has had an impact on the character inclusion. Pokémon Sun and Moon was yet to be released in both cases, so any Gen 7 Pokémon has neither of the two benefiting factors, add onto the fact that this SSB will be releasing closer to Gen 8 than anything (which I also don't see happening, at least until DLC). There is also the factor that we've already received a ton of playable Pokémon through everyone returning, so I see the focus being elsewhere in terms of newcomers, unless a particular Pokémon gives Sakurai a truly unique move-set idea.​

​

Of course, that is just my view on a Pokémon newcomer (more specifically Gen 7) as a whole; what about Incineroar specifically? Well it has things going for it; those anime leaks suggest that Incineroar and the other starter's were finalised early on, with perhaps enough time for Sakurai to pull a Greninja. Incineroar does look like a natural born fighter and a wrestling style has plenty of potential for unique fighting style and presentation. Of course, Incineroar also has to compete with the other starter trio, there already being a heavy weight and fully evolved Fire Type Pokémon playable, along with competing against more heavily promoted Gen 7 Pokémon such as Mimikyu, the Rockruff line, the UBs, Type: Null, etc.​

Want: 26%

Well... Incineroar is a first party character, there's that at least. I also started off with Incineroar, and would certainly prefer it playable over the more popular starter suggestion of Decideueye. I do feel there are better Gen 7 choices though (I do not care one drop for UBs, but I do feel Nihilego would be a most fascinating choice) and overall would prefer there to not be any Pokémon newcomers. There are tons and tons of Nintendo series without playable representation, along with represented Nintendo series that could do with greater representation; both of which I feel have plenty of interesting characters and styles to offer up. To see yet another Pokémon added would always be disappointing, even if I like the specific Pokémon themselves (Kricketune is my favourite Pokémon, but I'd never try to suggest it for SSB, I see no reason for it to be playable)​

Nominations: x5 Fatal Frame Protagonist
I see that Kamek has gotten through to rating day. I'll have to think of someone else to nominate alongside Fatal Frame Protagonist for the next time I comment here.

Actually, timing works out even better for an Alola Pokémon than it did for Greninja.

Smash 4's project plan was finished mid-2012, X and Y released at the end of 2013, and Smash 4 released in late 2014.

Ultimate's project plan was finished late-2015, Sun and Moon released at the end of 2016, and Ultimate releases in late 2018.

Ultimate's project plan finished far closer to Sun and Moon's release than Smash 4's did for X and Y's, making it far more likely a newcomer from Sun and Moon was able to be done. Plus we know that Sun and Moon were in the planning stages since 2013 at the latest due to the presence of the Mysterious Souvenir in X and Y foreshadowing Alola. Add in the fact that Sun and Moon were the big 20th anniversary games, and I honestly think an Alola Pokémon is a lock. Always have, really.

 

[Arcanir]

Incineroar

Chance: 45%
Even ignoring the rumor, this big guy has always been one of the four frontrunners for Pokémon in my eyes. When you look at how TCPi treats it, it's pretty clear that they've been trying to market it as a notable Pokémon for the generation. It was in the movie I Choose You, one of the few Gen 7 Pokémon in that movie and one that served as an anniversary title at that, it's gotten special attention in other merchandise such as the anime where one has been recurring under Masked Royal and Ash's Litten has had a notable focus to his character (albeit, not as much as Lycanroc, but it's second to him), and as a starter it carries a level of notability to it that most other Pokémon in its generation do not. Additionally, it had arguably the most in-depth showcasing different moves, facial expressions, and even a silly image of Mallow, which can easily lend itself well to appealing to Sakurai and showcasing what its personality is and what it can do, making it a good candidate just off of those details alone.

The only major issue it has is that it's competing in a generation that has multiple other promoted Pokémon like Lycanroc (assuming the rumor isn't true) as well as other notable (and potential darkhorse) Pokémon like the UBs, which could take priority over it. Outside of that though, it's still a major candidate for the generation and one I do consider among the 'Elite Four' so to speak in terms of likelihood for me.

Want: 70%
I prefer some other Pokémon like Decidueye and Lycanroc, but I do still like this guy. Seeing his personality in action during the in-game really made me warm up to this Pokémon as it's very vibrant and enjoyable, and it has a characterization that makes it appealing to me. I also think that it would be cool to have a dedicated wrestler-type character in the case since while it's a common archetype in fighting games, it's one that Smash doesn't really have and it stands to bring a unique moveset to the table that the other fighters do not. So even though it may not be my top choices, it's still one that I still wouldn't mind seeing and I would enjoy its inclusion nonetheless.

Plus it'd be the closest I'd get to King in the game, so I'll take it.