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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Jave

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Reimu:

Chance: 20%. I think she has a shot for being like, THE Indie character in Japan. The series is crazy popular and even has history with some Nintendo systems. Not much outside of that, but good enough to put her chances above 0%.

Want: 40%. Not my most wanted but I'll be cool if she makes it in. There are a lot of characters I'd take over her, though.

Arle:

Chance: 50%. As I said last time, I think it all boils down to if SEGA gets a new series represented through a playable character, and I'm positive that series has to be Puyo Puyo. With SEGA now heavily pushing the series in the west, I feel that putting Arle in Smash is all that's left for that push to be over (in addition to the inevitable new game that should be announced within this year and the next). I feel too much stuff has happened recently with the series to simply ignore, including all those Puyo games releasing on Switch and even putting an untranslated Puyo Puyo 2 on the SNES Switch app. I think we've reached the point where if Nintendo and SEGA want it to happen, then it WILL happen, but since it could go either way, I fell 50% is a good chance for her.

Want: 100%. My most wanted alongside Shantae and Phoenix Wright. Puyo Puyo Tetris really made me like the series and I think her moveset potential is enormous. Please Sakurai, make it happen.
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Reimu

Chance: 15%
Gonna quote this little snippet I wrote last time since not much as changed regarding what Reimu generally has going for her:



However there was something I thought would be worth bringing up that happened literally the day after Reimu's previous rating day: in an October 2019 interview with Touhou creator ZUN, the person interviewing ZUN asked him what direction he'd like to take the Touhou series. ZUN responded to this question by saying that he'd like for Touhou to appear in Smash Bros. Depending on how you look at that comment (and if you believe the DLC characters had already been decided by then like me), it may put Reimu's chances in jeopardy since it could imply he never actually talked to Nintendo about it at the time.

And before you say it, yes I know I went on a rant the other day about how the Tracer and Scorpion interviews wouldn't affect their chances. But the difference between those two interviews and the recent Touhou one is context: the topic of Overwatch/Mortal Kombat being in Smash was brought up by the interviewers, while ZUN went out of his way to talk about how he'd like to see Touhou in Smash. If Reimu really was in Smash, I'm pretty sure ZUN would both want and have to keep his mouth shut about Smash at all times unless someone like an interviewer asked him about it. For him to go out of his way and say that he wants Touhou in Smash makes me think Reimu really isn't coming.

Of course it's a theory built on a ton of ifs and I won't really factor it too much into my score, though I thought it would be worth mentioning.

Want: Abstain
Never played a Touhou game so I won't comment.

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Arle

Chance: 20%
For my chance score I'm just gonna quote what I wrote the last time we rated Arle back in November since nothing has really changed since then:




In short, she's got a fair amount of things going for her and I don't think that one article about a rejected Puyo Puyo fighting game really affects her chances.

Want: 80%
The Puyo Puyo series is super fun and Puyo Puyo Tetris in particular is incredibly addicting. Arle herself is a super colorful character so I'd be totally down for her to make it in. Want score would be a tad higher, however there is another preferred choice I have when it comes to another Sega character getting into Smash (hint: check out the News section of SmashBoards tomorrow morning).

Rayman chance prediction: 3.11% (Ubisoft Mii costumes releasing alongside Byleth does not help his already low chances)
Hayabusa chance prediction: 28.72%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
In a way, that ZUN himself brought it up could be seen as evidence of the complete opposite, in a "get ready for Reimu in Smash" way. Could go both ways really. That's why thinking too much on those interviews isn't too useful. What is 100% certain is that ZUN is completely willing to work with Nintendo on that end, which considering it's ZUN is a big roadblock down for the count.
 
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Louie G.

Smash Hero
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Aug 21, 2013
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ARLE

Chance: 40%
Honestly, these two have quite a bit in common. Both Arle and Reimu are icons in Japan, but lesser know here in the west. There's a key difference here though, and it's that Puyo Puyo has been getting pushed far more toward a worldwide presence than Touhou ever has. I just wanted to clear the air before I speak relatively positive of Arle, that's the big contrast between these situations.

Unfortunately, Puyo (and Monogatari) does have a number of games that were not formally brought to the west... and instead given a brand new coat of paint. As we all know, Kirby's Avalanche is infamously a reskin of Super Puyo Puyo, an odd trend during the 90s of homogenizing cutesy puzzle game IPs into spinoffs of already massively successful IPs. If this does prove anything though, it's that Nintendo and Puyo have a history dating back to the SNES... and furthermore has seen consistent releases on Nintendo consoles ever since. It turns out that a significant chunk of Puyo's library has been on Nintendo consoles actually.

Going back to what I said before, Reimu's problem was accessibility. What I find interesting is that, although Arle runs into similar issues at face value, it appears that there's an active effort to fix this problem. The fact that an untranslated Puyo Puyo Tsu was chosen to feature through SNES online over Kirby's Avalanche speaks volumes to me. Clearly there's an effort to introduce more people to Puyo, one which Nintendo themselves seems to have a hand in. Beyond this, you also have Puyo Puyo Tetris which in my eyes is a particularly ingenious way to get western audiences into Puyo. Slap it together with the most famous puzzle game franchise in the world, and you're set. Since then we've also seen the localization of Puyo Puyo Champions, revealing to me that this was likely a successful endeavor.

I believe that if Sega gets a new character, it will almost certainly be Arle. Kiryu is her main competition, but to me Arle's addition would be less about adding a Sega character and more about adding a Puyo character. Puyo has a notable presence on Switch, Yakuza does not. Joker comes to mind as a counterpoint to this mindset, but his inclusion was likely driven more by the opposite. Let's add an Atlus character, we've been working with them a lot... Persona 5 is popular, Joker would generate a lot of hype, let's do that. Out of the potential Sega characters Nintendo could go with moving forward, nobody makes as much sense as Arle.

That's a big if, though. I believe Arle has a slightly above average chance of being playable, and my score being under 50% should tell you that doesn't exactly mean I consider her guaranteed either. I would have put her at 50% exactly, but I hesitate for a couple reasons. I acknowledge the statement made about a Puyo fighting game, but this doesn't mean very much to me. It's an area of concern, but recognizing the full history of the series with regards to Madou Monogatari, a darker game than you would expect from the cast of Puyo but where several of its characters originated from. As I addressed in a prior post, Arle is not really a stranger to violence. Spoilered the image mostly to save room but also because it's a little bit gruesome.

1582495920102.png

There's also Madou Monogatari for the Sega Saturn, an RPG in which Arle flings spells at her opponents alongside her friends. Granted Arle is under new management nowadays - Madou Monogatari does not belong to them, just Puyo and its characters. But the history of Arle fighting leads me to believe that the concern about a fighting game has less to do with Arle being inherently violent, but moreso not wanting to create a fighting game under the Puyo Puyo brand. If Nintendo came to Sega asking them for Arle in Smash Bros, I have a very difficult time believing they would turn that down.

The other concern I have is simply that Nintendo's choices have been kind of... safe. I question whether or not Nintendo would take the chance on a character associated with puzzle games, over someone from a platformer / RPG / fighting game who has way more obvious potential to pull from. Sakurai is willing to take more chances on oddball picks from different genres, but when it comes to Nintendo execs making these decisions I have a little bit less faith. But that's just a negative gut feeling more than it is anything proven or even reasonable to believe. I just haven't seen anything that convinces me otherwise just yet.

Overall? Arle has a good shot, I've been flip flopping on her for a long time now. Back last summer I got this gut feeling that Arle would make a lot of sense for Smash, and it's a sentiment that I see many more people have latched onto over time. That whole debacle before Byleth definitely brought her to more people's attention, but funny enough my faith in her took a bit of a nosedive after that. Slowly but surely though, I'm starting to feel like her chances relatively very very solid. 40% is better than I would give like 95% of other characters.

Want: 100%
Arle represents a lot of what I want to see from Smash moving forward: Representation of a genre with no playable representation in Smash (no, Dr. Mario doesn't count), a fun character with a striking and colorful design who looks nothing like anyone we've been getting thus far, very unique moveset potential... plus Puyo is super super fun and has great music and characters... there's really no downside at all. She would be a fantastic addition.

Just watch this and tell me you don't want Puyo represented in Smash. It's an insanely charming series and would have a very fun and unique presence on the roster. She's absolutely one of my most wanted.
________

Predictions:
Rayman - 11.5%
Hayabusa - 40.75%

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x10
Almost there!
 
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Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
How many times can I nominate?
I nominated a character x5 once.
 
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Wunderwaft

Smash Master
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
3,458
Reimu

Chance: 35%
Not much has changed since the last time we rated Reimu except for one thing. ZUN said he approves of Touhou expanding to other crossovers like Smash. Considering the biggest obstacle people said Reimu had was ZUN's willingness, it seems the only obstacle she has now is if Nintendo or Sakurai are interested in choosing her.

Touhou is a large series that has inspired many games like Undertale, it's undeniable that the Touhou Project had a big influence on the internet, at least for the Japanese side anyways. I've said before that if we were to get an indie character the two most likely choices are either Touhou or Undertale, and we saw that the latter got a mii costume in Smash.

The main thing that doesn't make me confident is that it's likely that Reimu would get the same treatment that Sans got and she gets a mii costume. Reimu is a character that I can see getting picked as a playable character, but I wouldn't be surprised if she got the mii costume treatment instead.

Want: 95%
The Touhou Project is one that I've had a long history with. I enjoy the games and their setting, and I enjoy the colorful and charming characters. Reimu would bring an entirely new mechanic to Smash with her danmaku and grazing. She basically covers two areas that are lacking in the roster, an indie character and a SHMUP character. I would love to see Reimu happen.


Arle

Chance: 35%
It's undeniable that Puyo Puyo Tetris is one of SEGA's largest franchises. My only gripe are the statements that Puyo Puyo cannot be depicted in fighting games in order to protect the brand's recognition, a weird statement but it's one that we received from the Puyo Puyo producer (or was it director?). Regardless this isn't enough to put Arle down. Things may have changed since then and the Puyo Puyo team may have changed their opinions on the matter. But unfortunately we haven't gotten any info that shows that opinions have changed, so until then this is how I'm going to rate Arle.

Want: 30%
Ehh
I'm fine with her inclusion. I don't think Arle would be a bad inclusion, not at all. I'm just not that excited and I have other characters to look forward to.


Prediction:
Rayman 7.70%
Ryu Hayabusa 38.6%

Nomination: Kratos x5
 

Lasatar

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Jun 27, 2018
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199
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Every time Reimu is rated on here, I become more and more confident for her chances. Last time I gave her a 65%, and today, I'm giving her a 70% chance. The reason? Well, every single one of my points from my previous ratings is still standing strongly. Add that to the fact that ZUN himself has expressed interest in the idea (in a way that doesn't break NDA, either), and the fact that there are a whopping six more characters on the way, any one of which could be her (simple logic; more slots = higher chances. This applies to every character. Not just Reimu), and things are looking quite good indeed for our Red White Miko.

For Want, it's just a round 100%. Not much to say that I haven't said before.

Abstain on Arle. No idea how to rate a character I know nothing about.
 

SneakyLink

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A lazy shrine maiden goes around and fights everyone so they can go back to sleep: the series.

Chance: 50

The interview that Sari Sari mentioned actually occurred in March last year so in a way, timing may work against her. That said, of all indie characters, Reimu is definitely the one with the most history behind her (not necessarily Nintendo history). Touhou is also a prominent series in Japan and China to the point Blizzard bought a convention hall in China and Touhou overtook them. Plus, she has a flower named after her.

Want: 90

Although one of my most wanted, I'm knocking 10 points off due to making a rather "silly" bet involving her.

Abstaining from Arle as I'm not a Puyo Puyo fan (Asha is my most wanted fourth Sega character)

Nominate: Otto Matic (from Otto Matic)
 

Sari

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The interview that Sari Sari mentioned actually occurred in March last year
I did a ton of digging in regards to what you said and yeah it would seem that the interview actually happened in March. I have no idea why the interviewers waited so long to publish the full interview online and didn't mention in the article when it took place. The only way to know when it took place was from some random livestream in September where the interview date was just casually mentioned about 2 hours into it, so at least my error was sort of understandable.

I'll edit my post accordingly.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Reimu
Chance: 3%
I really don't think it matters if Reimu is big in Japan, that looks to be the only thing going for her. I can't speak for Europe, but at least in America she is a complete nobody. I can't see her being anything better than a super mii costume. Her series is not on the same level Dragon Quest where it was legendary in Japan but not too popular elsewhere, I don't think there's room for her.

Also I don't care who it is, Indies reps are dead.

Want: 0%
looked into her more, still have absolutely no interest in seeing her in the game. Hard Pass.

Arle
Chance: 25%
I have some issues figuring out what to say about her now that Papa Genos isn't talking about her and I can't parrot him. She's Sega so she doesn't fall into the trap of super mii costume. I don't see anyone else taking her spot from Sega, unless Eggman or Tails take it. She seems to be more popular outside of Japan than Reimu, atleast according to some fan polls.

Want: 10%
I still don't really care about this character or series. Nothing has changed here in terms of want.

Noms: Gnar x5
 

PokéfreakofBACON

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Arle

Chance: 10%
I'm currently of the belief, after the last Sakurai interview, that FP2 will be almost entirely characters chosen to please the fans. Sakurai mentioned the main goal was to make people happy who weren't satisfied after the base roster, after all. Arle is... in a curious spot. If Japan were the only country that mattered, she'd be on the top 10 list of most wanted, as far as I can tell. Everywhere else... no one cares. Still, Japan obviously matters the most for Nintendo, so she has a decent shot in my eyes. Not super likely, but very possible.

Want: 30%
I've barely played Puyo, but I love what I have played- and I love puzzle games in general. Tetris and Panel de Pon (better known in the US as Tetris attack) and Yoshi's Cookie are all some of my favorite games too, and Arle would be a great way to pay homage to a HUGE portion of video games that's barely in Smash at all.

Her moveset potential is through the roof with Puyo Puyo alone, what with the possibilities of spawning the orb thingies and making them explode... but she also has tons to pull from in her original appearances that were more RPGs I think? I'm not entirely sure, I've just seen plenty of things she could possibly do.

Also obligatory cute girl mention.

Reimu

Chance: 4%
If we get a playable indie rep, she's slightly higher than most others in my opinion. Shantae is the queen of that spot, but Reimu has the history behind her to be considered the first big indie game by some. And with how many Tohou fangames there are, a lot of which are sold on Steam/the eShop, I can't imagine it'd be hard to negotiate with ZUN.

Want: 25%
Never played Tohou, but the music alone makes me want Reimu in. I'd love her as a mii costume that came with bad apple or flowering nights or... really any tohou song. She's also got the possibility of bullet hell mechanics in a fighting game, which sounds absurd and I'm all for it. Bonus points if her hurtbox is 1 pixel.

Also obligatory cute girl mention.

Predictions:
Rayman- 11.69%
Ryu Hayabusa- 36.9%

Zeraora x 10
 

BernkastelWitch

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 20, 2019
Messages
530
Reimu

Chance: 35%

Reimu is usually sat on for chances due how relatively new-ish support for her has been and yet IMO, she is the most likely Indie rep we may get, barring a potential promotion to someone like Shovel Knight or Shantae. Touhou has been around since the 1990's, blew up when it hit its Windows era, and has practically become a cultural icon of sorts in Japan being very popular enough to have its own convention, has a flower in China named after Reimu, is in the Guiness Book of World records, and have been a good launching pad for Artists and some Japanese game developers careers due to the lax copyright Touhou has.

ZUN approves the idea of Reimu in Smash and he's a very laxed guy so all it'll take is going up to him and that is it. The only hurdle I have is if Nintendo won't mind having a bit of a more regional centric character take a slot in Smash even if Touhou has a strong cult following outside of the East.

Want: 100%

One of my most wanted personally, as unlikely as it is given how Touhou is one of my favorite franchises and I found a lot of important people through it. So I would welcome the Shrine Maiden with open arms even if others won't.


Arle

Chance: 45%

Puyo Puyo is a huge franchise and one of the missing "Major" Puzzle games without any amount of content in Smash. I personally feel like if we do get another Sega rep, it's either her or Kiryu with Arle slightly edging out Kiryu. The fact she is usually listed in Japanese polls as a wanted character for Smash does say there is demand for her too.

Yet like Reimu, she still has issues with people thinking she is "Niche" and "Obscure" albeit to a lesser extent. A bit of a non factor but something I should still point out.

Overall I do think Arle has a good chance to be one of the Six characters.

Want: 95%

I may be new-ish to Puyo Puyo but I am willing to accept Arle into Smash since I adore everything I know about her. If Reimu can't get in than Arle is a second best option for a female character I'd love to play as.
 

Calamitas

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I'm gonna double abstain today. I just really don't feel like I could give either of those characters a chance rating that I'd fully stand behind.

Nomating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.

Predicting Ryu Hayabusa to get around 78.910%.
Predicting Rayman to get around 2.33%.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
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Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Reimu

Chance - 1.5% - Reimu technically has games that feature her in English on the Switch. They are not official games, though, but instead fan games that have permission to be localized. Is that enough to count? Considering how roundabout some of the ways some character I have made, possibly. It's hard to gauge how popular Touhou getting in would be, seeing as how a fangame ended up selling more than an official game on steam. Touhou is somewhat niche, yet popular at the same time. While she has "break the internet" potential, her extreme obscurity in other places makes me think otherwise.

Want - 55% - I like Touhou, but I'm not certain how I would feel about it in Smash. It's just too foreign a concept for me to properly rate.

Arle

Chance - 10% - Sega's critical darling, and an official e-sport in Japan. Anything with that kind of pedigree deserves to be looked at. Sadly, I think the main problem is that they are probably going to look for obvious moveset potential here, and now they have to get creative. If there was more time I think she could make it, but right now it's hard to say. She's probably one of the front runners of Sega characters, though.

Want - 75% - Hey, I enjoyed PPT. She'd be fun and would fit right in, I think.


Nominations

De Blob X5
 

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden and Rayman from the Rayman series.

Predict Lara Croft and Master Chief.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Hayabusa


Rayman

 

Ridrool64

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1,398
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New Jersey
He was on top of the world...

Chance: 50%. Koei-Tecmo is actually already involved with Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, because of the Yuri Kozukata Assist Trophy, so I can't imagine it'd be too hard for Sakurai and Ninty's legal crew to work something out with them. Ryu Hayabusa is well known as a strong NES icon, among the three left who have no presence in SSBU (the others being Bill Rizer and Bimmy Billy & Jimmy), but he also has notoriety for his 6th generation era and his fighting game appearances. The latter, plus the fact that we have nobody who uses a katana, and last but definitely not least his powerups in the NES games, give him more of a moveset to work with than ever.

But here's the problem. He's kinda got... not that much relevance, and doesn't have the fan demand to break out of that. Until Ultimate, he wasn't a particularly popular character, and during the ballot, we had plenty more NES icons to go through, not the least of which Simon Belmont probably stood in his way the hardest. I guess he also "competes" with other Koei-Tecmo characters, but it's about as one sided as Sonic vs. literally any other SEGA character in Brawl is, if you ask me. Overall while he's not on my short list, I can see him slotting in as another Terry-type character; not exactly the most relevant or popular fan request, but somebody with a strong legacy. I do think I could see a Mii Costume event in his future, though.

Want: 70%. I have not actually beaten Ninja Gaiden yet, but that game alone has told me everything I need to know about the potential of Hayabusa in Smash. A more strategic, speedy character who is vulnerable to getting combo'd but has all the tools he needs to overwhelm and keep opponents at bay sound pretty nice. Also, Unbreakable Determination in Smash. That alone sells him to me.

Look ma! No arms! Just hands!

Chance: 25%. I'm expecting Rayman to be particularly controversial because the randomly dropped Ubisoft Mii Costumes for Byleth could be either a boon or a bane to him. I, personally, interpret them to be a nail in his coffin. Why would they be released NOW, and not as part of Rayman's set of Mii Costumes? I don't think his base game Spirit holds him back too much, but I am also unsure about if Brawlhalla hurts him or not. There is also the issue of being westerned biased when it comes to fan support, as I don't see too much hype from Japanese fans (on Twitter, so take this with a grain of salt), and we technically haven't had a character like that who's third party. Would it be worth it? Probably, because of all the western hype. But for now, I don't think he's getting out of Spirit world, but between the big 4 for Spirit Promotions, I believe he's probably the likeliest of them.

Want: 70%. It'd actually be rather nice if we got a more western wanted third party, actually! Rayman has a lot of creative stage and even music/Spirit potential, let alone his moveset which would be incredible. A mid-ranged psuedo-zoner who has amazing range, but no disjoints, sounds like a really unique character trait I can only imagine Sukapon being able to replicate. Also, the inevitable amiibo will be a sight to behold. I'm not exactly gonna push for him, but I think he's the fifth best pick for a western character, behind only Steve, Frisk, and Crash, as well as... the next character we're gonna do, at least objectively (though that guy I have no strong opinion on).

Paper Mario x 5. Can you help a guy out and get him his day?

Lara Croft is historically undersold as a Smash contender despite her prestige, 10.39%. Master Chief is seeing what almost seems like a deluge of supporters, 36.86%.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Ryu Hayabusa:

Chance: 50% - The fourth and last character I'll give a 50%, which is currently the highest I'm willing to go (the others were Crash, Geno and Dante). Ryu Hayabusa basically has all the same things going for him that Simon did, with the most notable difference being that Castlevania has a stronger legacy in the post-NES era than Ninja Gaiden does, although I feel like Koei Tecmo's really tight relationship with Nintendo makes up for that. On the face of it there's nothing particularly big in his way, my only real concern is that he might be a bit too safe of a pick, if that makes any sense. Like, most people probably expect him more than they actually want him, and with how DLC has been chosen so far, that's not a particularly good spot to be in. Still, that's a somewhat flimsy argument, and I do believe that characters are chosen on a case-by-case basis, so I don't want to look too much into general trends or anything.

Want: 85% - The Ninja Gaiden trilogy is such a strong part of the NES' library, so it'd be super cool to see it represented in Smash, especially for the music. Beyond that I have good memories of playing the original game with my brothers, and while I was never as good at it as my older brother (who can make his way through it almost flawlessly, before hitting that infamous roadblock with the respawning enemy followed by the last boss), it's still a pretty special game in our family for that reason. I doubt he'd be a character I'd play a lot myself, but I'd still be very happy to see him.

Rayman:

Chance: 10% - I'm really not feeling a Ubisoft character after they've gotten so much content in Smash, yet never seem to be in real contention for an actual character, and the Ubisoft costumes in Byleth's pack is just the latest indication that things are going to continue this way. If I'm not mistaken Rayman also has the whole 'not popular in Japan' issue, I'm not sure to which extent, but I kinda figure it takes Banjo levels of popularity to overcome that issue. Ubisoft and Nintendo do have a pretty strong working relationship, so maybe they have at least taken it into consideration, and chances are that the Ubisoft costumes were negotiated before the second pass was greenlit, but overall I do find Rayman to be in a tough spot.

Want: 70% - While I only really care for the original Rayman game, he would still be pretty neat, a limbless fighter would be a first, and he has a host of abilities that would fit in Smash pretty easily. He would also bring great music and a potentially beautiful stage, so although I wouldn't be overly excited or anything, there'd still be plenty to like about his inclusion.
 
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Sari

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Calc scores

Reimu
24.98% Chance - 60.05% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Icedragonadam Icedragonadam with 22.66%
Reimu's last rating in October resulted in her getting 33.34% Chance 54.29% Want. That previous day was a pretty wild one, as a ton of people from the Reimu thread and other places showed up and gave her insanely high chance scores. Lots of +70% chance scores that day and even two people who gave Reimu a 100% chance of happening. Needless to say it was one of the most hectic RTC days in recent memory.

Today seemed to be much more quiet as far as outside influence and heated discussion goes, so both of Reimu's chance and want scores are more or less the same as last time. Whether we'll actually get a playable indie character remains to be seen, but as of now Reimu is one of the frontrunners (if not the frontrunner) for an indie rep according to this thread. Could a certain red hatted robot change that?

Probably not but just let me pretend

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Arle
39.29% Chance - 60.50% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Cadillac Cadillac with 40.00%
Last time we rated Arle was in November where she got 34.79% Chance and 48.86% Want. Today's rating was pretty similar to last time except Arle saw a very slight increase in chance and a slightly bigger increase in want. A lot has changed since the launch of Ultimate, as the other Arle rating of 2019 was in January where she got 11.72% Chance and 34.82% Want. Not many people expected to get another Sega/ATLUS character for DLC after Joker and it showed through her low chance score. With the confirmation of more DLC as well as other news relating to Puyo Puyo however, Arle is looking to be the prime candidate for another Sega character now if we are to get one.

-----

Winner of chance score predictions both receive 5 extra noms.
 

CapitaineCrash

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
2,594
Location
Canada, Québec
Ryu Hayabusa:

Chance: 60%
Hayabusa is the pretty much the last NES era icon not already in Smash. It also help him that Koei Techmo have a pretty strong relationship with Nintendo, developping Hyrule warriors, Fire emblem warriors and Fire emblem three houses. The only thing going against him is the fact that Ninja gaiden isn't really relevant today, and they might want to go with a Dynasty warriors rep. instead. But I feel like Ninja gaiden history on Nintendo console will help him.

Want: 40%
He have a cool design, but I'm unsure how he can be very unique because we already have 2 ninja character (Greninja and Sheik), and many character who use a sword as a primary weapon.


Rayman:

Chance: 5%
With a bunch of Ubisoft character getting a mii costume, I feel like this is the best we will get from Ubisoft. It doesn't help that Rayman isn't really known in Japan, and that there's a lot of platformer mascot more popular than him (like Crash).

Want: 70%
Rayman is actually one of my favorite platformer franchise, and my favorite among the one that are not already in Smash. Also he have a great moveset potential with a lot of abilities and power-up, and he could bring some beautiful music with him.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,515
Location
Drenthe, NL
They totally delayed him to FPvol2 bro
Chance: 55%
Fake leaks aside, he's just generally a sensible pick many are set on Sakurai choosing, with him being an NES icon and Koei Tecmo having a healthy relationship with Nintendo. He might not be some huge, triple A, internet shattering inclusion but that won't bump him down by much if the first fighters pass is anything to go by.


Want: 15%
I actually went ahead and played Ninja Gaiden on NES online a few months back... I didn't like it. The last few levels/bosses basically soured the experience to the point I had to savescum. Regardless, I see more potential in his hack and slash incarnation, which would grant him a big movepool. He'd probably excite me if I was looking for that in my newcomers but as it stands, Hayabusa would be a bit on the predictable and boring side to me.


No limbs, huge features
Chance: 33%
Some people here are probably going to write him off for three main things, his Spirit, Brawlhalla and those recent Ubisoft costumes but honestly, I don't think any of them really matter.

First of, I do not believe any base game Spirit would automatically rule someone out for this second wave. I'm not going to go into detail for that unless someone here wants my reasoning.

Brawlhalla is owned by Ubisoft themself and isn't really any competition to Ultimate. If Rayman got upgrated to playable in Ultimate, it wouldn't be betrayal to Brawlhalla. If competition really mattered then we should also count out Lara for also being playable in that game along with 2B, being in Soul Calibu.

Lastly dem Mii costumes. Some people see it as a hard deconfirm for any hope Rayman had left, I ain't seeing it. It's really dumb imo. Nobody is writing off another Capcom character because they brought back those Megaman costumes. Many people have Dante or Phoenix Wright on their prediction list. We still have Monster Hunter left, yes, but that's just one or two costumes. Can't really make a Capcom themed wave outta that unless they make new ones, which they could also easily do the same for Ubisoft. How about costumes for other Rayman characters? Or Sam Fisher? Or Vaas for Far Cry 3? Heck, maybe even some Just Dance mascot? Regardless, it doesn't really matter much. There isn't much of a pattern to these waves anyway. This theory kinda falls apart when you look at it.

-Joker came with costumes related to Persona and Sonic the Hedgehog, both are owned by SEGA.
-Hero came with costumes all affiliated with Dragon Quest, no Geno or Chocobo here.
-Banjo's wave of costumes were all over the place. Goemon from Konami, the returning Zero and Protoman from Capcom, Team Rocket grunts and then suddenly Sans Undertale. Nothing related to any Rare or Microsoft IPs.
-Terry got some costumes related to SNK characters but also returning Virtua Fighter costumes by SEGA. Seems like it's fighting themed here.
-Byleth brought zero costumes having anything to do with FE or Nintendo with them. Instead Cuphead semi owned by Microsoft, more returnig Megaman costumes and then those Ubisoft costumes.

I see no correlation here. For all we know Rayman could happen and have completely unrelated costumes with him. The Rabbid and Altair costumes are no threat to his chances, in fact, they kinda help since we now know Ubisoft is into play with the DLC content.

Really, the biggest hurdle Rayman has to overcome is his obscurity in the east. A major point against him but not one that can't be remedied. Smash is no stranger to characters who mainly or specifically appeal to westeners (:ultridley::ultlittlemac:). Nintendo themselves don't seem to show any disinterest in the guy like the rest of Japan so who knows, perhaps Smash could be a way to fix Rayman's status over there. I do remember during the Banjo presentation Sakurai doing a quick summary of the BK series which to me seemed to be aimed at Japanese fans unfamiliar with the duo. That might be helpfull. If it doesn't actually work out in the end it's not some huge buisness misstep. His western popularity would probably outweigh his eastern unpopularity and there'll still be five other characters that could appeal more to that region to fall back on.

Want: 95%
I'm hugely biased yes. Rayman is perhaps the character I hold the most nostalgia for, which me and my brothers have fantasized about being in Smash for a while now. He's in my top 3 most wanted and even on my hugely biased FP2 prediction list. Fun fact, today's the third day in a row we're rating one of those characters on that list. Yes, I have both him and the Knight on there, don't ask.

Lara Croft: 20.35%
Master Chief: 24.53%
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 40% - A much talked about character thanks to leaks and Nintendo's positive relationship with Nintendo, Ryu's looking to be in a strong position. Being the last NES icon not in the game, along with Ninja Gaiden having a big announcement on the horizon, the timing is looking good for him.

That said, Ninja Gaiden's relevance has waned in recent years andhis modern games don't have the same appeal or popularity of his classic ones. Furthermore, Byleth could've been, in Nintendo's eyes, the Tecmo representative due to their work on Three Houses and Fire Emblem Warriors. Speaking of which, there's also inter-company competition with Dynasty Warriors which could really hurt his chances. Though Sakurai has great value for legacy, and thus he may see more value in Ryu.

Want: 15% - I don't have much experience with the series aside from some of the music, and he'd be a rather predictable choice (though that isn't his fault), but I'd be interested in seeing what he brings to the table.


Rayman

Chance: 15% - Rayman's in such a bizarre spot. Ubisoft clearly has a good relationship with Nintendo and has gotten some content in Smash. Though it really is several cases of So close, So far. A Rayman spirit, three Rayman trophies in 4 (all of which use custom renders provided by Ubisoft themselves), Rabbids spirits, and then the Rabbids and Altier Mii costumes. It's surprising that they've gotten nothing yet. Rayman also has plenty of Nintendo representation, along with Rayman Legends Definitive Edition being a Switch exclusive. Everything seems like it's lining up.

However, Rayman also has a lot of things holding him back. Most obvious is his lack of popularity in the east. Nintendo might not want to take that risk with a DLC character. Then there's the costumes and spirit. I know base game spirits can be amended, especially since Pass 2 wasn't planned alongside the base game. Though it doesn't deconfirm him, I still believe that it could affect his chances. Same with the costumes since they'd more likely come with a Ubisoft rep. Though a counterpoint being that there were no Rayman costumes (which would HAVE to come with a Rayman if he was in and the costume wasn't Rayman himself. It's why a lot of people are banking on CacoMallow after all). If anything, this also helps Rayman, as it eliminates his biggest inter-company competition.

Finally, in a way there's some small matter of relevancy. Despite the Legends rerelease on Switch, Rayman's lost a lot of steam since his revival. And with no news of a new game on the horizon, Nintendo might not see a reason to add him.

Still, he's got the qualifications and legacy, he's still got a solid chance!

Want: 50% - While I don't have a ton of history with the character, a year ago I went back and watched some let's plays of the older Rayman games (a Let's Player I've been watching for a long time was playing Rayman Origins at the time) and saw just how beautiful they were. And I loved the characters and music! (Though I have to say I liked 1 way more than 2). So I would love to see Rayman bring this wonderful content into Smash! Plus he'd be a good representation of Continental Europe's contributions to the gaming scene.

Though if he does get in, I hope they tone down the wackiness a bit from his current incarnation. Origins and Legends were fun as well but the character portrayals were too slapstick, and felt like Twinsanity/Tag Team Racing era Crash, minus the sadism and a bit lighter.

Most importantly, though I just think he deserves it! He's a gaming icon that's kept up a good relationship with Nintendo and was a good part of many childhoods! He's got the credentials, he's earned it!


Nominations:
Bubsy x5


Predictions:
Master Chief - 26.68%
Lara Croft - 12.44%
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Lets see if i can get this done before my tax stuff is finished

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance 35 - a logical pick that's had a lot of inflation due to fake/bad leaks. Unlike some who have had that though, i can see why he'd get picked. Probably the biggest NES characters not selected for a role yet in Smash. Tecmo also has content in Smash but nothing playable. Could mean something but also might not at all as we keep finding out with Namco characters not named Pac Man. Overall i think he's a pretty safe choice, perfect middle of the pass character like Terry was this time should he get it. Overall wouldn't gamble on it but i could see it.

Want 30 - never played a game and no connection to the character. Seems like an inoffensive choice really. Leaning towards not wanting bc i habe more characters i want first and we do have a few ninjas already but there's likely something to set him apart.

Rayman
Chance 10 - Kinda the same deal as Hayabusa where we have the companies content in smash but no playable character. The difference here is that we have better choices from Ubisoft, mainly Ezio who is more well known and has a better moveset potential. There's some fan demand but i think Sakurais statement of characters needing to be fun to play works against him here. I dont really see a fun movset happening with him.

Want 0 - Yep, flat 0. No connection to the character. Character doesnt seem like it would be fun to play as. And finally, theres better picks from Ubisoft. No interest in seeing Ray Man in smash

Predicts
Master Chief 20%
Lara 30%

Noms
Falinks x5
 
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BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,826
Location
winnipeg
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 20%. Since is a character from the NES gives him a bit of a chance of being in the game. Him being a ninja helps as well. Competition has a chance of defeating him, but not that high of a chance. He could still have a chance to be playable however. He has also been leaked quite a bit.

Want: 50%. He wont be the first ninja in this game (Sheik and Greninja got in before), and he won't be the first Ryu either, but he would still be fun to play as. I can already see him, the other Ryu, Sheik and Greninja having a free for all. Overall, he would be a fun addition to the cast.

Ray-Man

Chance: 25%. Despite being represented by a spirit, I think he still has a chance of being playable. Popularity has given him a boost, and even if the competition would be fierce, but not as fierce as Ryu Hayabusa's competition, but he has a big chance of appearing in the game, to be the first playable Ubisoft rep.

Want: 100%. I was rooting for him since late 2016, and he would totally not only be a fun character to play as, but a very unique fighter to play as. I mean, what other playable characters who have hands separated from their body (at least until Sukapon becomes playable, but still). Ray-Man is an inclusion that is well deserved and he is number 6 in my top 10 most wanted fighters.

Prediction: Master Chief (15%) and Lara Croft (15%)

Noms: 3 for Decidueye and 2 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)
 

MrMcNuts

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
811
I'm gonna abstain from Ryu H since I don't know enough to make a prediction but...

Rayman:

Chance: 60%

While the costumes can go either way, I'm leaning towards them helping his chances considering he could come with Rayman themed costumes and this shows that they're willing to work with Ubisoft. They also know Rayman is the most requested from the ballot and considering rabbids and ezio have almost no one rallying for them, I'd find it weird if sakurai ignored that and gave rabbids and Assassin's Creed more recognition, not impossible but still weird. His biggest hurdle is Japan popularity, but his games still get sold over there so he could at least get introduced to that market. Like sakurai said with Terry, even if they aren't known, it's important that they're fun to play as, and considering he has way more moveset potential than Assassin's Creed or Rabbids, I'd say he'd be the first Ubisoft rep.

Want: 100%

I want him so bad and I hope his time comes soon!
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Omg I won! Just on my birthday too!

Hayabusa

Chance: 46%
One of Koei's frontrunners. His leak got disconfirmed multiple times, but I think he still has some chance since he's quite popular.

Want: 40%
He seems cool, with all the weapons. But I prefer someone else. I won't object if he gets in, though.

Abstain on Rayman.

Master Chief: 29%
Lara Croft: 21%

Nominate: Hornet(Hollow Knight)x5
 

jamesster445

Smash Lord
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
1,133
Hayabusa
Chance: 50
Want: 100

Nothing has changed since the last time we rated him.

Rayman
Chance: 40
Want: 50

Wouldn't care if he's in or not, but I'm not sure if he will be.

Nominations: Ring Fit Adventure x5
 

3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
The most likely character to get in Smash Ultimate
Chance:100%
The only character I am willing to give a 100. Ryu is a NES icon, a representative of a popular company that has collaborated with Nintendo on several occasions, a modern icon thanks to the modern trilogy, and in general a pretty popular character. Honestly the character I am most comfortable in betting is in.
want:100%: Ninja Gaiden is one of my favorite franchises ever made, and Ryu would finally give us some representation of that. As well, he has many weapons he can use and vast moveset potential. Also some kickass songs are in Ninja Gaiden.

The guy who has dumb Plum combos in Super Smash Flash 2
Chance: 20%: I think that Ezio is still the most likely Ubisoft rep, especially with that strange situation with the remix of Ezio's Family never showing up. But Rayman is definently second as he is an icon.
Want:100%: Rayman is fun as hell in SSF2, if a litlle OP. Plus, I would love to see how Sakurai would do his moveset in comparison to the SSF2 devs.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 
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MrMcNuts

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
811
Oh dang almost forgot to bring up the Ezios family remix!

I'd say that could also be in Rayman's favor, since 1. It didn't come with the assassin's Creed outfit 2. If we were getting Ezio I don't think they'd reveal the "Smash Bros X Assassin's Creed" sign early just for a costume. 3. Terry came with some other SNK songs that weren't from his games. Rayman could easily bring a few Assassin's Creed and rabbids remixes with him
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
8,771
Location
Rhythm Heaven
HAYABUSA

Chance: 55%
So let's put it briefly into perspective. Out of the companies who have closely collaborated with Nintendo and are not represented in Smash through a playable character, which is the first one that comes to mind? For many people this may not be Koei Tecmo, but it should be. Because Koei is far and away Nintendo's closest ally not yet formally represented in Smash Bros through a playable character.

Koei actually does have their fingerprints on Smash Ultimate a bit: Fatal Frame, a series owned by Koei and published by Nintendo, has an AT in the form of Yuri. They also had a hand in developing a title that has recently made its debut in Smash... Fire Emblem Three Houses! Koei Tecmo played a huge part in that game's development, but that's not the only Fire Emblem title that Koei had a part in, as they are the developers of the Warriors series of games. Warriors has crossed over with Nintendo on multiple occasions, with Takamaru in Samurai Warriors and both Hyrule and Fire Emblem Warriors spinoffs having been produced within the last decade. There was also a Metroid stage in Dead or Alive Dimensions, complete with Ridley as a stage hazard. Clearly these guys are pretty close, and have been for the last decade at least.

Ninja Gaiden, of course, has roots within the NES. Hayabusa is arguably one of the biggest "icons" of that era to not be playable in Smash, which is a point that many people have made toward his inclusion. I don't think Hayabusa is quite at the level of Mega Man or Simon, but Ninja Gaiden is a classic series in its own right and if you don't know Hayabusa, you certainly know the series that he's from. Most people would be quite happy with "the dude from Ninja Gaiden" in Smash, many who don't know any better probably wonder why he didn't happen sooner. Ninja Gaiden consistently shows up alongside the NES mainstays: it's been on every Virtual Console, it's one of the titles on the NES Classic and is offered through the Switch online service. Ninja Gaiden 3 was given an enhanced port on Wii U way back when too, so that presence isn't necessarily even limited to Ryu's status as a classic gaming icon. I would imagine once they do follow through with a new entry in the series it will probably find its way onto Switch, but who knows when that will be.

We have instances last pass of Nintendo giving their partners characters in Smash, presumably to strengthen relations and express their gratitude / appreciation for their cooperation. Considering how prominent Koei Tecmo has been in a number of recent Nintendo projects, it's right up there with Atlus and Microsoft. As far as competition within his own company, Hayabusa is in a very lucky position of having virtually none. He is far and away the most obvious choice. Does this guy have any obstacles at all?

I guess if there's anything worth bringing up it's that Hayabusa is from a franchise that over time has matured to an M rating since his inception in NES. This is by no means a negative at face value, but considering the number of other M Rated contenders for DLC I have to wonder how many Nintendo would be comfortable with before deciding it's too much. That being said, I'm pretty sure Hayabusa would be a high priority among them. That's like, my only real concern about him. 55% may be a little low for a character I'm sounding this confident about, but for what it's worth anything can happen. My opinion has fluctuated over the past few weeks and as it stands now there's only one character who I am unabashedly confident will be in the game... guess we'll see who that is at a later date!

Want: 70%
I like Hayabusa, his legacy is hard to deny and the more I hear about him the more I come around to him. At first I thought he was kinda boring and people were just hopping onboard because he seemed like the "next step" and all, but I've changed my tune. He's still not my most wanted or anything but I have no doubt he would have a super fun moveset and killer music.

He can use a ****ing scythe! I'm sold.

--------
RAYMAN

Chance: 7%
Alright, I'll just come out and say it. I think Rayman's chances are dead. The percentage I'm giving him is on the off chance that I completely misread this but I'm fairly certain that the Mii Costumes do Rayman far more harm than good. Hear me out for a sec, but I don't think there's much to say.

Rayman is the defacto candidate for Ubisoft, a company who Nintendo has also been fairly buddy buddy with as of late. Between Mario & Rabbids, Starlink, all that good stuff. I think you could have made a very valid point in Rayman's favor... before the last presentation. We now have Mii Costumes of Ezio Altair and Rabbids, something that has been construed by some to help Rayman's odds with there being Ubisoft content in the game. The way I see it though, the fact that Ubisoft costumes would be shown off with no Rayman in sight pretty much seals his fate.

You could lump him with random costumes but like, why would you? You have Ubisoft costumes right there, the Byleth presentation was well after FP2 was negotiated. Clearly there are a handful of Mii Costumes that are likely being held off for the next pass, there would be no reason to show off Ezio Altair and Rabbids independent from our good friend Rayman. So, unfortunately, that has shut down any hope for the character I would have had otherwise. It's a shame because I believe that base game spirits are fair game in this next pass, so I would have considered Rayman to be a reasonable enough expectation. But he never got the chance.

Also it may just be me, but it's almost as if Ubisoft isn't really treated with the same respect as a lot of these other third parties. The fact that Rayman was passed on twice in a row (assuming Ubisoft asked which... come on, why else would you send Nintendo a free model of your character) kinda makes me feel like they don't particularly want him. It feels like Ubisoft wants to play with the big boys, but for whatever reason Nintendo and/or Sakurai isn't quite charmed enough to make that final leap.

Want: 75%
I'm a big fan of Rayman Origins, it's one of my favorite platformers of all time. Assuming that's the direction that Rayman has been taking as of late, I would love to see some of that make its way into Smash. Rayman is one of those characters who kinda has everything mapped out already, it's super easy to imagine how he could work and I think he'd be a lot of fun. Appealing design, great music, fun moveset, yadda yadda yadda. I'd be happy to see him.

--------
PREDICTIONS:
Master Chief - 31.5%
Lara Croft - 20%

NOMINATION - Travis Touchdown x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 35%

He is one of the few remaining icons from the NES era. His games are iconic (and infamous) and his moveset could use his various items and upgrades, plus some liberties from the newer games to make an interesting moveset. He definitely has potential to be unique from Sheik and Greninja. He also has been featured in crossovers recently and that's actually a trend with a lot of Smash's third party characters. Tecmo is already involved with Smash and while I don't know a whole lot about Tecmo, Ryu does seem to be their top contender.

The only things holding back Ryu is that his recent games didn't get a lot of attention, at least compared to his peak in the NES days. He also hasn't received too much requests until Ultimate and a lot of the hype around him came from leaks which at least so far, hasn't amounted to anything. Still, he just makes a lot of sense to be in Smash.

Want: 75%

The NES Ninja Gaiden games are my favorite NES games tied with the Castlevania trilogy. Ryu is such a cool character and would have a sick moveset and tons of options when it comes to neat stages. Finally, two words: Unbreakable Determination.


Rayman

Chance: 15%

Rayman is complicated for me. I don't think base game spirits deconfirm characters for Fighter Pass 2. If Sakurai wants to add a character, he will add the character. After all, Lucas and I think Mewtwo got trophies before they came to Smash 4 and I feel like a similar situation could easily happen. However, Rayman's relationship with Smash has been very weird. First, Rayman was the only third party character to get a trophy in Smash 4. That would mean he would be a good candidate for the next game. Right? Well he became a spirit and now we just got Ubisoft Mii costumes. What the heck is going on with Nintendo and Ubisoft?

Well, Nintendo and Ubisoft certainly have a very good relationship. They clearly are open to Smash since they got spirits and now Mii costumes. So Rayman almost seems like a no brainer. Well there are some possible reasons why Ubisoft doesn't have a character in Smash. The biggest reasons are that Rayman is not popular in the east and Ubisoft is a western company. Sakurai only just started working with a western company (Microsoft) during the last pass. So maybe Sakurai will be willing to work closer with Ubisoft for a character. The only thing is that again, Rayman's games (at least his recent games) didn't sell that well in Japan. With only six more slots and the likelihood that we maybe will get 1 or 2 or miraculously 3 western characters, the odds are just not looking that good for him. Especially when you add in competition from Ezio.

Still, Rayman has merit to him. He has moveset potential, Nintendo history, a legacy, and plenty of fan requests. I personally believe he is close to being a no brainer. He would fit right in with Smash and it's about time Ubisoft finally got a playable character. I've been harsh on his chances and while I don't think he is likely because him being so close to being playable for a long time and not be there yet is getting meme-worthy, he still has a decent chance.

Finally, people bring up Brawlhalla as a counter argument? Lmao. What does Brawlhalla have to do with Smash? Just because Rayman is in the game and it's kind of similar to Smash doesn't mean anything. Where did people get this idea from? Most of Smash's third party characters have been featured heavily in crossovers. What a stupid argument.

Want: 60%

I don't have too much history with Rayman, but I have played the first game on PS1 and I really enjoyed it. I feel like Rayman should have been in Smash by now. He has such interesting moveset potential with his floating hands and numerous power ups from throughout the series. He is a charming character with a lot of personality and he would bring a very cool stage and some great music with him.

Predictions:
Master Chief - 25% (He makes a lot of sense for Smash, but his lack of Nintendo history really hurts him)
Lara Croft - 30%

Noms: Crypto x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
New spirit event is



IDK if we rated this or not but I'm feeling like we did. Speaking of the ratings and such, is anyone working on the front page list we had running for a while? If not I might sit down and do it one afternoon.
 
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Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
New spirit event is



IDK if we rated this or not but I'm feeling like we did. Speaking of the ratings and such, is anyone working on the front page list we had running for a while? If not I might sit down and do it one afternoon.
Is Warframe a new spirit?
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Just for funsies, here's a collection of total scores by Chance and by Want totals. I'm only accounting for the reset that came post-Byleth, and am ignoring scores from before Lloyd/KOS-MOS.

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Feasible (10+%), and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.

By chance:

  1. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance (notable amount of Crash supporters)
  2. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
  3. Dante: 49.38% Chance
  4. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance (notable amount of Phoenix supporters)
  5. Geno: 42.50% Chance (notable amount of Geno supporters)
  6. Sora: 40.58% Chance (iirc, there were quite a few Sora supporters)
  7. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
  8. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
  9. 2B: 35.41% Chance
  10. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
  11. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
  12. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
  13. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
  14. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
  15. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
  16. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
  17. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
  18. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
  19. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
  20. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
  21. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance (widely considered out of the running)
  22. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
  23. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Favorite (#FF69B4) [60+%], Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%). Crash. however, is a major outlier, being the only character to break 75%. Him and Wright are the only characters to break 65%, and by association, 70%. In order for things to make sense, I had to use a different scale.

By want:

  1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
  2. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
  3. Dante: 64.23% Want
  4. 2B: 64.09% Want
  5. Geno: 62.93% Want
  6. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
  7. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
  8. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
  9. Sora: 54.44% Want
  10. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
  11. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
  12. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
  13. Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want
  14. The Knight: 50.12% Want (honorable mention for biggest gap in chance and want, in favor of want)
  15. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want (currently, only character to have chance beat want.)
  16. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
  17. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
  18. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
  19. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
  20. Thrall: 26.50% Want
  21. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
  22. Tracer: 22.73% Want
  23. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want

I may or may not try to keep this up, but I wanted this resource to possibly assist the team by making something for scale (though, I imagine they already have a similar resource if they can monitor previous ratings), and so the average layperson doesn't have to dig through every page in recent memory. Besides, now you can say stuff like "Ryu Hayabusa is now in the top 10 most likely characters" or "Rayman has one of the biggest discrepancies between Chance and Want", to give an example. This doesn't take Volume 1 ratings into account, again, which means that if the team does this will probably be considered insanely inaccurate and missing loads of characters.

If I do keep this up, I am not sure if non-Fighter concepts (think DLC Music Packs or Mii Costume) should be kept in a separate league from Fighters and Fighter concepts (like, X series/X company rep) or not.

Some takeaways: Crash Bandicoot wins both. Hat Kid is the least likely, while Vault Boy is the least wanted. Phoenix Wright is right behind Crash for want, but Lloyd takes that place for chance. Vault Boy is only the second least likely, while Tracer is the second least wanted.
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Ryu:
Chance 35%
Nothing has changed for him. I do think a Tecmo rep is possible, and since Tecmo Bowl is probably not the choice here, it's probably best to go with him.

Want: 15%
If he's just another Shiek, pass. Shiek is probably one of my least favorite characters to play. I'd be fine with a heavy ninja character though, idk if that fits him. Please, if Ryu gets in, give us some Tecmo Bowl music.

Rayman
Chance: 0%
I don't think chances look good for Rayman. I still think spirits deconfirm and I don't think any will be upgraded. On top of that, Rayman was a trophy in smash 4. To me, this shows that the Smash dev team's opinion of Rayman hasn't changed. They don't think he matters enough to be playable. I know that Nintendo picks the DLC, but Sakurai does get to have some say in the process as well. If he doesn't think Rayman fits, hes not getting in.

Want: 5%
I don't really get the appeal of Rayman. I don't have much experience with him, I might need to play his games to get him. Maybe one day I'll do it.

Noms: Gnar x5

EDIT: Unabstained from Ryu
 
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Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 40%
Ninja Gaiden has a ton of legacy, Koei Tecmo is very Nintendo friendly, and overall Ryu is just an icon of the NES era. Although the main leaks that supported him are now officially dead, it doesn't change that Ryu has a lot going for his inclusion.

Want: 60%
Ninja Gaiden is a both a very frustrating and yet somehow enjoyable game, so seeing an NES all-star like Hayabusa make it in would be great. I've also been interested in playing as a ninja type of character in Smash (yes I know Sheik and Greninja exist but I just don't like their movesets).

-----

Rayman

Chance: 1%
  • We got a bunch of Ubisoft Mii costumes alongside Byleth's release. If Rayman was actually planned to be a character they probably would've released those costumes alongside him. Maybe if the Mii costumes had been in the base game I'd give Rayman more leniency, but with the costumes being so recent I feel like that's all we'll see from Ubisoft in Ultimate's lifespan.
  • Rayman is a spirit which I view as a death sentence regarding chances. There are only a few spirits who I think may be promoted to fighter status and Rayman isn't one of them.
  • The Rayman series is not popular in Japan as the initial release of Rayman Legends was a flop over there as well as the Switch port many years later. I think unpopularity in Japan is a big blow to someone's chances especially when it comes to DLC.
  • Would have to compete with Ezio (and possibly Rabbids) when it comes to Ubisoft characters.
Want: 55%
The Rayman games are pretty enjoyable and I can see Rayman being a fun fighter in Smash. While he's far from my most wanted platformer character, I'd be ok with Rayman making it in eventually (not before Crash though).

-----

Master Chief chance prediction: 28.43% (I'm expecting people to really overblow his chances)
Lara chance prediction: 20.24%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Joy Mech Fight

Chance: 5%
I can't quite explain why I find Rayman's chances so low. Maybe it's because Ubisoft's desperation to get in Smash seems matched only by indie devs; and Nintendo certainly seems to snub them in the same way. Or maybe it's because I've always felt that the much bigger and iconic Assassin's Creed was the likelier franchise (hell, it's the weird case where a realistic open world super-Western game is more of a hit in Japan than the cartoony mascot platformer). Maybe it's the Rabbid Costumes? Nah, that one can't be it, Rabbids are only a spin-off of Rayman, and if I think that Altair's Costume helps Ezio then it would be hypocritical to think that the Rabbids hurt Rayman. I dunno, I just feel like Nintendo's been served Rayman on a silver platter and they've just constantly passed on him.

Random thoughts, but wouldn't it have been cool if we got Mii Costumes for Splinter Cell and Watch Dogs? I'd pay a good buck to make a Mii sporting Sam Fisher's night vision goggles or Aiden Pearce/Marcus Holloway's hat and mask combo.

Want: 50%
I like the Rayman games, some of them a lot. Rayman himself is whatever. But I can understand the want for him, I think he'd be a good inclusion, and I'd be happy for his fans. Though I would definitely prefer Ezio on the Ubisoft front and Sukapon on the limbless front.

What the...?

Chance: 100%
Alright, bear with me. I hate to schew the score like this, especially because it's not based on anything concrete, but I got a hunch that he's in. I guess it's kind of like a "where there's smoke there's fire" deal, so I kinda suspect that all the noise about him actually stems from real conversations behind the scenes, but look. The guy's got credentials. A huge icon, not just for the NES era but for the modern one. A lot of people have said that the newer games didn't make as much of a splash, but that's just not true - they were some of the premier exclusives on the Xbox (you see kids, back in the day Xbox consoles also had acclaimed and system selling exclusives!). Both the NES and modern games are acclaimed as some of the best in their respective genres. A lot's been said about Mega Man and Castlevania being bigger deals, but while Mega Man got lost in spin-off limbo and Castlevania never quite evolved post-Symphony of the Night, Ninja Gaiden not only broke through the polygon ceiling, but did so as a triple A franchise in the modern day. That's no small feat.

I think we'll get a rep from an unrepresented Japanese company with a lot of Nintendo history. Maybe it could be Level-5 with Layton, or maybe Marvelous with Travis. Hell, we might get two, or all three, it's a big pass. Or maybe we get something less Nintendo linked, like with SNK, but I'm feeling good about Tecmo-Koei. They've been around for a while and they've done good work for Ninty.

Want: 90%
Hard game junkie here, so it won't surprise anyone that I adore the Ninja Gaiden series. A true to form Hayabusa in Smash would be something to behold, a quick and heavy rushdown character that, when he gets into a good rhythm, is unstoppable. Plus, Unbreakable Determination remix. Yes.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Lara Croft prediction: didn't we already rate her? Whatever, 39%
Master Chief prediction: this will be either way high or way low, depending on people's stances on Doomguy and Steve. I'm gonna go for high and 42.07%

Omg I won! Just on my birthday too!

Hayabusa

Chance: 46%
One of Koei's frontrunners. His leak got disconfirmed multiple times, but I think he still has some chance since he's quite popular.

Want: 40%
He seems cool, with all the weapons. But I prefer someone else. I won't object if he gets in, though.

Abstain on Rayman.

Master Chief: 29%
Lara Croft: 21%

Nominate: Hornet(Hollow Knight)x5
Happy birthday!
We now have Mii Costumes of Ezio
Minor correction. The Mii Costume is actually Altair.

Y'know, from the famous Altair franchise.

Edit: for some reason the timestamp for this post is "In 29 minutes"? Huh?
 
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