Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 408: 3/26 Nintendo Direct Reactions

warpenguin55

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Tracer
Chance: 32%
Overwatch is one of the bigger E-Sports right now. I think that it would make sense for Activision to want to add Tracer to Smash if they were contacted for a rep. This is what I think puts Tracer over Crash. Not by much, but I think it would make sense for Tracer to be picked over him.

Want: 35%
I like Overwatch, it's a fun game. This score would be higher if it wasn't for me feeling like if she gets in, a League rep's chances get hurt.

Thrall
Chance: 3%
This one isn't happening. I know WoW was and maybe still is massive, but I just can't see it. We all know Sakurai prefers to pick a character you get to play as, and Thrall is an NPC. If anything, I would think he'd go for the avatar, but I've heard there is so much of a difference in the classes of WoW that it wouldn't make sense to pack them all into one character.

Want: 0%
I got no interest in seeing this one happen. Never played WoW and a League rep would be pretty hurt by this IMO.


Predictions:
The Knight 20%
Hat Kid 5%

Noms: Octopath Rep x5
 

Sari

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Tracer

Chance: 25%
Possible hot take: I don't think the Hong Kong controversy will affect the chances of a Blizzard rep. Nintendo has added characters from other bad companies into Smash and even Nintendo isn't immune to controversy from their own stupid decisions. In the end, Nintendo is just another big corporation trying to earn money. Heck, I still see ads for Overwatch on the Switch startup screen every time I turn it on so I doubt Nintendo views Blizzard as the boogie man.

Also I personally believe that all of the season 2 pass fighters had already been decided on by the September Direct when more DLC was announced - a month before the Blitzchung incident anyway. But that's a story for another day.

Anyway, Overwatch is incredibly popular and we now even have it on Switch for whatever that's worth. The only real hurdles I see for Tracer are Blizzard being a Western company and possibly having competition with fellow Activision character Crash (since Blizzard is a subsidiary of Activision).

Want: 0%
Never really cared about Overwatch and even if we had to get a character from it, I'd probably prefer D. Va anyway. Also since Blizzard is a part of Activision, there's a chance that Tracer's inclusion would hurt Crash's chances which is a big nope from me.

-----

Thrall

Gonna quote what I wrote about him in December since basically nothing has changed since then:

Thrall

Chance: 0%
World of Warcraft was the game that greatly popularized the MMO genre. It's still pretty popular to this day and is among Blizzard's biggest series. As far as good things for Thrall's chances, that is really all I have. Now for the cons:
  • From what I could find online, WoW is not popular at all in Japan and AFAIK there aren't even any official servers there. The closest thing I could find to it being recognized in Japan was this old article where a group of like 40 people set up their own server. Aside from that it seems to be a literal who series in Japan (even within the past two years or so with the rise of PC gaming there) which I think is a death sentence for a character's chances.
  • Blizzard has shown more interest in adding characters from their other series into Smash, such as Diablo and Overwatch. Considering how more Nintendo and console friendly those two series are (and Overwatch being way more mainstream nowadays) I think they would have priority over WoW.
  • As far as WoW reps go, Arthas seems like a gigantic hurdle.
Want: 0%
I have no connection to WoW at all or any other Blizzard franchises for that matter. I've always been more of a Steam PC user and I'm not a fan of paid subscriptions for single games. Even when looking at the WoW characters I feel like Arthas would be a cooler pick anyway.

EDIT: Also forgot that Blizzard is technically part of Activision, so a WoW rep could possibly kill Crash's chances who is one of my most wanted.
-----

The Knight chance prediction: 7.43%
Hat Kid chance prediction: 4.13%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
 
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Tracer
Chance 5%
Want0%
Thrall
Double 0%
Associating with Blizzard right now is not a good idea right now. Altough Overwatch is on switch, does anyone actually care it's there? It's sort of dropped of recently. And Wow isn't much better, doesn't help Thralls no playable. I would prefer Tracer of the two but I think there are better choices in both genres.

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction
Both 7%
 
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Tracer (but she doesn't draw!)

Chance: 30%

Overwatch is very popular and is a big e-sport. Activision is quite buddy-buddy with Nintendo and they are one of the few western companies that I can see getting a rep. My big concern is that I'm pretty sure back in September after Overwatch was announced for the Switch, Blizzard was like "Hey Nintendo, you can have any of our heroes for Smash". We know that Byleth's presentation was made in November, and in that presentation, Sakurai said that the next 6 DLC characters were already chosen. That's only a two month gap and if Activision was not approached for an Overwatch rep by that time, it was probably too late for them to get a character from Overwatch. Plus, if we are getting an Activision rep, it would most likely be Crash for his popularity and impact on gaming. Still, Tracer has got a lot going for her, especially since Overwatch is fairly popular in Japan and will continue to be supported with Overwatch 2 coming to Switch. She's got recency, popularity, great moveset potential, and an art style that would fit very well with Smash.

Want: 60%

I don't play Overwatch. It's not my type of game. With that said, the game has a lot of personality and Tracer would be a cool and very fun character. Plus the stage and music potential is very good.


Thrall

Chance: 5%

WoW Is the game that popularized the MMO genre and is still relevant to this day. And that's all the positives. World of Warcraft has a lot going against it. WoW and PC games in general are not popular in Japan at all with some exceptions. Competition from fellow Blizzard characters from Diablo and Overwatch is very fierce, and that's not even including Crash in the mix. Plus Thrall himself is not the main character and there are other WoW characters that could get in instead. Overall, I'm not seeing this happening.

Want: 60%

Similar reasoning as Tracer. WoW is not my type of game, but it is charming. Plus I can see the moveset, stage, and music potential being awesome. And Thrall himself seems like a cool character.

Predictions:
Hollow Knight - 10%
Hat Kid - 5%
If you ask me, I think indies are done when it comes to being a non-Mii costume, playable character.

Noms: Crypto x5
 
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Abstain as I suprisingly haven't played either of these games even though I'm a PC gamer.
I'm probably too busy with Half-Life.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 

Ridrool64

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Cheers, luv!

Chance: 40%. I can see a case for Tracer, but overall I think she's mostly outclassed by Crash when it comes to getting in. Not for nothing, Tracer does come from a series with a lot of relevance and popularity, but all of the Fighters Pass franchises last time were from proven franchises, while Overwatch is still in its infancy. I could see her being a Mii Costume for Gunner, but I'm not sure if we're getting her. There's also the issue of if Activision will even get a character. But make no mistake, I think she's the main competitor for Crash and if he isn't Activision's first character, she'll be.

Want: 10%. I guess I wouldn't want her since she's fighting Crash for the position of the Activision-Blizzard inaugural character, and I think it should be him. And of course, Blizzard is Blizzard, and while I'm willing to swallow it for Crash, not so much for Tracer. But I do see some merit to her inclusion. Firstly she's a lesbian, which we don't have (though I am eyeing Bayo, I can't say for sure on her). Next, her time warping abilities are unique since Byleth forgot how to do Divine Pulse. So she's not somebody who would devastate me.

Uh... no Warcraft joke.

Chance: 0%. Not for nothing, WoW is very popular and I see it as the main Darkhorse when it comes to ActiBliz. Except it won't be Thrall but somehow Sakurai would try to find a way to make the actual player characters of the game, customizable as though they may be.

Want: Abstain. However I will note that I'd rather get the actual PC from Warcraft. Not because Thrall is bad, but because I want to see what Sakurai would do.

Paper Mario x 5. Hat Kid has been explicitly outed before as not in, and I don't think that'll change. 0.21%. The Knight is in a slightly better spot, but only slightly. 0.75%.
 
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Cheers, luv!

Chance: 40%. I can see a case for Tracer, but overall I think she's mostly outclassed by Crash when it comes to getting in. Not for nothing, Tracer does come from a series with a lot of relevance and popularity, but all of the Fighters Pass franchises last time were from proven franchises, while Overwatch is still in its infancy. I could see her being a Mii Costume for Gunner, but I'm not sure if we're getting her. There's also the issue of if Activision will even get a character. But make no mistake, I think she's the main competitor for Crash and if he isn't Activision's first character, she'll be.

Want: 10%. I guess I wouldn't want her since she's fighting Crash for the position of the Activision-Blizzard inaugural character, and I think it should be him. And of course, Blizzard is Blizzard, and while I'm willing to swallow it for Crash, not so much for Tracer. But I do see some merit to her inclusion. Firstly she's a lesbian, which we don't have (though I am eyeing Bayo, I can't say for sure on her). Next, her time warping abilities are unique since Byleth forgot how to do Divine Pulse. So she's not somebody who would devastate me.

Uh... no Warcraft joke.

Chance: 0%. Not for nothing, WoW is very popular and I see it as the main Darkhorse when it comes to ActiBliz. Except it won't be Thrall but somehow Sakurai would try to find a way to make the actual player characters of the game, customizable as though they may be.

Want: Abstain. However I will note that I'd rather get the actual PC from Warcraft. Not because Thrall is bad, but because I want to see what Sakurai would do.

Paper Mario x 5. Hat Kid has been explicitly outed before as not in, and I don't think that'll change. 0.21%. The Knight is in a slightly better spot, but only slightly. 0.75%.
Actually, it's possible for Byleth to be in a same-sex relationship in Three Houses. Just look up Edeleth fanart.
 

axel_

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TRACER

Chance: 5%

It's obvious at this point Blizzard wants to separate themselves quite a ways from Blizzard, amidst all of its controversies. Not because of the Hong Kong situation, but generally how poorly they've handled criticism for their decisions. Considering the timing of all of these events and when Pass 2 supposedly started I have zero reason to believe in her inclusion. I also don't think Tracer's inclusion would ever fit the model for how Sakurai or Nintendo pick Smash characters.

Want: 15%

As much as I like Tracer as a character, she is FAR below the list of characters I want to be the first true FPS rep. Her significance to Smash, Nintendo, and her genre is leagues below other popular requests Doomguy, Master Chief, Gordon Freeman, etc.

THRALL

Chance: 1%

Copy-paste everything I said for Tracer, but instead for a series with even less of a presence on Nintendo, and that's how you get Thrall.

Want: 50%

I'd love to see what Thrall can do in a fighting game setting, and as a celebration of gaming history I think Warcraft absolutely has its place, but it's definitely not something I'd ever expect or clamor for.
 

Sari

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My big concern is that I'm pretty sure back in September after Overwatch was announced for the Switch, Blizzard was like "Hey Nintendo, you can have any of our heroes for Smash". We know that Byleth's presentation was made in November, and in that presentation, Sakurai said that the next 6 DLC characters were already chosen. That's only a two month gap and if Activision was not approached for an Overwatch rep by that time, it was probably too late for them to get a character from Overwatch.
To be fair, he was only responding to a question brought up to him in an interview with IGN about Smash (the question being which Overwatch characters he'd like to see in Smash). A similar thing happened when one of the creators of SNK Heroines was asked about who he'd like to see in Smash and we still got Terry.

Now if he randomly decided to say "hey Nintendo please use our characters" on Twitter or something then I'd say that's a blow to Tracer. But since it was in the context of an interview question and not as damning as the recent Doom interview I wouldn't really factor it into her chances.
 
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Reposting my Thrall rating from December since nothing has really.
*searches for my Arthas rating*
Chance: 0.01%
Really, any Warcraft representation seems like a long shot with its competition from other Blizzard/Activision series, lack of Japanese populairity and Nintendo presence. Some recent events might also effect the chances of us seeing a Blizzard rep anytime soon.

Want: 10%
When we rated Arthas I mentioned Thrall being my preferred pick. Personally, I think orcs are a bit more significant to the franchise than humans and I imagine Thrall having a more fun moveset. I still keep my want low due to my ''get on Nintendo and then we'll talk'' policy. Also I just know a character from Blizzard these days getting in Smash would cause a buch of drama, even if it wasn't Overwatch. I'd rather not have that happen.

No more stages: 9.56%
Meta Knight echo fighter x20
Tho I see people here saying Thrall is just a NPC? I guess that might be true in WoW but only in context of that game. Shows how little people here have played WCIII.

It's over man
Chance: 5%
Controversies aside, I'm kinda having a hard time seeing Nintendo pick her over Crash or most other big third-parties. I don't know if Overwatch really proved itself as a series that will age well as a Smash inclusion with the game, from what I've heard, being past it's prime with a drop of players and the Switch version likely not doing so hot. FP1 wasn't really about adding mind-blowing western triple AAA characters anyway so I'm not sure Esport numbers will make much of a difference.

Besides that I don't know if she has potential as a unique fighter. She shares a familliar physique to Zero Suit and Bayo and has only about 4 different abilities in her game, 3 of which aren't that interesting or haven't been done before. Really, she just seems like a diet Bayonetta to me and I don't think Sakurai can give her an interesting moveset without forcefully shoving other heroes in there.

Want: hard 0%
This is one of the characters I'm actively against. She would be the most poorly timed and poorly aging Smash inclusions to me, she competes with better characters, she has nothing interesting to bring to the table, Overwatch used to be very Oversaturated during 2016 and I'll keep seeing the game as fad unless millions of people have goldfish memory and flock to OW2 as if everybody has forgotten about the Hong Kong drama, which I haven't.

The Knight: 6.13%
Hat kid: 3.87%
Reporter and Wrestler x5
 
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Tracer:

Chance: 5% - To me it feels like the only reason anyone considers her likely is because of Overwatch's artstyle and that it's on Switch, because besides that there's nothing that indicates that she's in prime contention to get in Smash. Overwatch is a western developed competitive arena shooter, it could not be any further from the types of games that are usually included in Smash, and while that's not to say that the Smash team never breaks new ground in that regard, I don't think Tracer is the type of character that warrants that. There are western characters that are more likely, there are FPS characters that are more likely (on accounts of being pioneers if nothing else), and there are Activision characters that are more likely, as far as I see it Tracer is absolutely up against it.

Want: 0% - As someone who was a big fan of Blizzard during their prime, I'd really prefer just about any other series taking priority of Overwatch. While Overwatch is their current cashcow, it's still Warcraft, Starcraft and Diablo that shaped the company and represent what they were like back when they were one of the leading innovators of the western gaming industry.

Thrall:

Chance: 0% - Everything Tracer has going against her also applies to Thrall, and on top of that he also has to deal with Warcraft being increasingly less relevant, as well as being a series without a definitive main character. He's literally got nothing going for him other than historic significance when it comes to RTS games and MMOs, although I doubt that really matters.

Want: 40% - Like I said when we last rated him, Warcraft was a super important series to me before Blizzard ruined it (thank god I didn't buy WC3:R), but in general the idea of having it in Smash is such a weird mishmash that just doesn't go together very well. A part of me would at least be happy to see some representation for it, but overall I think it's best that Blizzard stick to Heroes of the Storm for their crossover needs.
 
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Ninjaed

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I'm sorry, what does Kat have to do with anything? She's not an actual cat, so she wouldn't be a quadruped, if that's what you think.
She's a character I'd rather see in Smash over Spyro? There really isn't more to it than that. I wasn't saying I'd want Kat to be on all-fours, if that's what you got from what I said.
 
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The cavalry

Chance: 40%
Unlike Spyro, who is unboubtedly more iconic and has more things in his favor, Tracer is a character I could see getting in over Crash. For one, she's from the Blizzard side of the Activision-Blizzard equation, and she's the frontrunner there by miles (I don't expect there to be any other Blizzard representation unless Overwatch gets more than one character). She's a modern icon, from a massively successful game that revived a genre, spawned a franchise, and (here's the winning hand!) is popular in Japan and available on Nintendo consoles. Honestly, the only thing against her is that she's a Western creation, which, yeah, could likely end up being what causes her to be left out. I don't think the Blitzchung controversy had any bearing on Smash selection. Need I remind you that SNK is partly owned by a Chinese company, and Nintendo themselves are allied with Tencent to release the Switch in China? Businesses are in bed with the Chinese market, that's just a fact of life and they're not going to start acting like they're not.

Want: 90%
I'm not a fan of online only games like Overwatch, but I respect it for its refined gameplay and refreshing take on character design. I think Tracer would be a fantastic fit for Smash.

Shrek

Chance: 0%
If a character and a franchise have no appearance on Nintendo consoles, that's a big no from me. I'm lenient on games where they're kinda new or I could see them getting one in the future, but they couldn't even be arsed to port Hearthstone to Switch? Doesn't bode well.

Want: 0%
Too specific to the PC audience, this one is. I don't think he's the way to go. If he got in I'd get why, but it would do nothing for me and I bet it would be received quite poorly.

Noms: Kiryu x5
HK prediction: 1.3%
 

BowserKing

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Tracer

Chance: 25%. First of, the creator said yes for the franchise getting in, plus the suggestion of using Tracer to represent it, which helps the chances of her getting in. Overwatch being available for the Switch bumped the chances up even further. Competition is still a concern, but not that big of a concern as many others, so she has a chance of getting in.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, plus who knows, we could get some deadly combos, battle potential and stuff, that would give her an advantage of being as fun as in her own game. But who knows what will happen. Anyways, to the next fighter.

Thrall

Chance: 10%. Chances are, if a World of Warcraft Rep where to get in, it's the Lich King, but then again, we have been surprised before. Thrall also has to face off against competition that is way fiercer then Tracer's competition. He has not been on a Nintendo system, but Cloud got in Smash a few years before his game came on the Switch, so it's not impossible as it seems.

Want: 50% He would be fun to play as, and that is what matters. Who knows what would happen, we could get a boss and multiple options for stages, so the possibilities are more unique. That is all for now.

Prediction: The Knight (5%) and Hat Kid (0 to 1%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 3 for Decidueye
 
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Freddy Fazbear x190
Kazuma Kiryu x175
The Blob (De Blob) x160
Crypto x145
Carmen Sandiego x145
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x120
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x115

100 - 51

Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x90
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Big Daddy (BioShock) x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Chun-Li x65
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x65
Meowth x64
Decidueye x62
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x61

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Segata Sanshiro x45
[Rerate] Paper Mario x40
Mii Costume: Quote x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Bubsy x25

Under 25

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
Concept: DLC music packs x20
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x20
Terra Branford x18
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
[Rerate] Kratos x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Black Shadow x8
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Guardian (Destiny) x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Zeraora x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Gnar (League of Legends) x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x2
Taranza x1

Travis Touchdown breaks into the top seven full force, taking sixth place and leaving Mii Costume: Hollow Knight and Concept: Octopath Traveler rep tied for seventh.

New challengers approach! We have Zeraora, Tick, and Gnar, each with 5 noms.
 

Sari

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Calc Scores:

Crash
59.26% Chance - 75.78% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Jomosensual Jomosensual with 60.00%
Last time we rated Crash was back in August where he got a 49.21% Chance and 70.49% Want. Increase in chance is most likely a result of more DLC being announced since then as well as many rumors spreading about Crash in Smash. Slight increase in want could be a result of more people giving the Bandicoot a chance after hearing about him being an actual possibility. Regardless of how you look at it, Crash is now one of the most likely characters according to this thread.

Spyro
9.58% Chance - 52.04% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Icedragonadam Icedragonadam with 9.44%
The last Spyro rating was also on the same day as the last Crash rating back in August, where Spyro got a 13.30% Chance and 54.58% Want. More or less the same as last time though the decrease in chance could be a result of more people realizing that Crash is a nearly immovable hurdle for Spyro.

Winners of the chance predictions both receive 5 extra noms.
 
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Tracer:

Chance: 15% - Tracer's got a decent shot at the roster. She's the mascot of a relevant and popular FPS franchise, and while popularity has dwindled considerably it has still maintained a dedicated fanbase. Furthermore, Tracer does have moves in her games that would make for an easy and interesting moveset, and her bright color palette and art style fit easily into Smash. And most importantly, she's now on the Switch, which is more than can be said for a lot of other characters people have predicted or requested (and I somehow predicted this would happen a few weeks before that Switch case was leaked on Amazon). However, that's where her advantages end. Tracer isn't popular among Smash circles and has little fan demand, alongside inter company competition with Crash Bandicoot, a character with massive fan demand. There's also Hong Kong but that's a 50/50, since Nintendo did cancel some kind of Overwatch event back in November, but at the same time Nintendo doesn't pay attention to politics and has continued advertising the game's Switch port. There's also the "Nintendo can have any Overwatch character they want" statement from back in September (and the second pass was likely finalized in November, so that could be a death blow if he wasn't pulling an SNK. Overall it's Tracer's continued relevance that keeps her a contender, especially as the modern mascot of Blizzard, but outside of that her competition has more to offer for their chances.

Want: 10% - I do have some experience with the character, having watched my friend play Overwatch when he was into it (and we made jokes about the characters and everything!), and I did originally have a lot of fondness for her, but my interest in the franchise has greatly diminished since then. Alongside that, what really hurts her chances in my eyes is the fact that she'd more than likely deconfirm Crash Bandicoot, one of my most wanted characters. While she wouldn't be the worst pick, I don't think she should get priority over Crash Bandicoot or any of Blizzard's big classics.


Thrall:

Chance: 5% - Warcraft is in an odd spot right now. It is the first franchise one thinks of when they think of Blizzard, and has been their flagship for a long time. It was what helped build the company into what it is today. So if Blizzard got their pick there's a chance that they'd go with one of their golden classics instead. Though outside of that, a lot of Tracer's roadblocks also hurt Thrall. Alongside that, there's the status of the Warcraft franchise losing relevancy as time goes on, with less people interested in World of Warcraft, along with the disasterous launch of ReForged (though that was too recent to affect his chances). Both him and Tracer also have modest but not noteworthy popularity in Japan, and have competition with even other Blizzard series like Diablo, which even has its' own amiibo! A complete lack of Nintendo representation is what puts the nail in the coffin.

Want: 15% - Outside of the same score drop for Crash Bandicoot competition, I do think it'd be interesting to see a fantasy orc with magic become a playable character. Western RPGs have no representation in Smash and it'd be good to see what they bring to the table in a Smash game. Warcraft is a series that's forged a legacy and has more than earned its' slot in a grand celebration of video games. I just wish that he and Crash weren't mutually exclusive due to being part of a Western company. I also believe that one of the Warcraft games should be ported to the Switch before he gets into Smash so that he'd have some sort of Nintendo representation.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5


Predictions:
Hat Kid - 6.38%
The Knight - 8.54%


I don't expect them to get high rankings due to their shared status with Undertale and Cuphead: indie games that started their Nintendo relationship on the Switch. As a result, they'll more than likely get premium Mii costumes just like the former two. If Nintendo does an indie rep it'll likely be one with more legacy and a longer Nintendo relationship like Cave Story or Shantae.
 

Sari

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There's also Hong Kong but that's a 50/50, since Nintendo did cancel some kind of Overwatch event back in November, but at the same time Nintendo doesn't pay attention to politics and has continued advertising the game's Switch port.
It was Blizzard that canceled the event, not Nintendo.

There's also the "Nintendo can have any Overwatch character they want" statement from back in September (and the second pass was likely finalized in November, so that could be a death blow if he wasn't pulling an SNK.
I addressed that comment here. In short I wouldn't really factor it into Tracer's chance score since he was just responding to an interview question.
 

Louie G.

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TRACER

Chance: 10%
I'm surprised at how high some of these percentages are, honestly. But yeah, I think Tracer has enough going for her. She represents a new genre to Smash and one that is very prominent in modern gaming, she's from Blizzard which is owned by a company who Nintendo has worked with and entrusted with their characters in the past, Overwatch has recently come to Switch and OW2 is coming out in the indefinite future, she's one of the more instantly recognizable "modern" icons... OW is pretty big worldwide and is currently one of the top ranking esports, a growing scene / audience that maybe Nintendo would want to capitalize on.

When I lay it out like that, Tracer actually feels fairly plausible. And she is, I guess. I can't really explain why I'm not willing to rate Tracer above 10%, but it doesn't feel right to me. She's one of those characters who very well could happen, but I just don't think she will. When thinking about characters that Nintendo would negotiate with Activision Blizzard, I believe that Crash would easily take precedent. There's nothing that says a company can't have more than one character as DLC either, but not only does the limited space make it less reasonable but both Crash and Tracer are western characters, which have some more hurdles to jump in the first place.

I do think Tracer is second place though. I think she'd probably be able to mesh pretty well into Smash also, the only issue I see is that Overwatch's music selection is severely lacking. That might not stop them in the longrun but it would make Tracer's fighter pass a bit less flavorful.

Want: 15%
The 15% is simply because I think that, at the end of the day, I would probably enjoy playing as Tracer in Smash. Her moverset is fairly clear cut and would be different than any other character we've got right now. But every other part of me doesn't want Blizzard or Overwatch laying a finger on Smash. I mean, maybe a Mii Costume I guess. I would just rather not have Overwatch playable in Smash especially over plenty of other series that have a deeper legacy and a less... problematic history.

THRALL

Chance: 1.5%
Admittedly I don't have much experience with WOW. There's one thing that can't be denied though, and it's that WOW is a very important and popular game. So a character in Smash? Sure, I guess it makes about as much sense as anything else right now. I just don't see why there would be any incentive for Nintendo to choose a WOW character over Crash or Tracer. The reasons aren't too complicated here, Thrall just gets outclassed and likely wouldn't be a priority. I'd be very surprised to see them.

Want: 20%
Hammers are cool, but that's my only real opinion on this character. No attachment or particular interest otherwise.

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x5

Predictions:
Hat Kid: 3.65%
The Knight: 4.5%
 
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Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
947
Tracer
Chance 30 - Not impossible I dont think. There's more than a few reasons to include her. She's popular and relevant in gaming right now. Overwatch is popular in some parts of the east, but seemingly not Japan. Not sure what that means exactly but it's the same deal LOL has apparently. Also, Nintendo isn't going to care about Activision/Blizzards comments on China. They just started getting the switch over there. It would be weird if they were really bothered by someone supporting China while also supporting China at the same time. Crash being form the same company also does damage to Tracers chaces here

Want 30 - Dont know much about Overwatch and dont play it. Would be fine with it since Tracer is fairly well known but otherwise I'd be a little down because I'd much rather have Crash.

Thrall
Chance 2 - I dont think this will happen. WOW is past it's peak with a lot of other PC games more popular now(League of Legends especially) and I think that we have way more likely characters from both it's genre of game and from it's own company to see Thrall as a possibility. Leaving the door open just in case Sakurai and Nintendo go for a legacy pick or something, but I don't think they will when it means passing up the characters they would

Want 30 - WOW is pretty iconic but it's in competition with things I'd rather see by a bit and characters I'd like better. I'd take it but I doubt I'd be all that excited at seeing it happen.

Predictions
Hat Kid 1.39
Hollow Knight 4.12

Noms
Big Daddy x5
Guardian(Destiny) x5
 
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I wanna be Tracer. Someone already made this joke.

Chance: 0.1%
Game is on Switch so main character is confirmed for Smash. That's literally the only reason people think she's likely. She has nothing going for her. The audience that is a huge fan of Overwatch just doesn't overlap much with Smash, and nobody is asking for her. (even Joker and Terry had tons of people asking, I've seen almost none for Tracer.) If she did get in, it'd be purely for shill reasons- but there's not really much of a reason to shill Overwatch, is there?

Want: 0%
Lesbians are cool and all but if we're putting in a character purely because they're gay then... I'd rather it be a character that's not 1-dimensional. It's no secret that I'm not a fan of Overwatch. The character designs are just absolutely terrible in my eyes. TF2 does literally everything Overwatch does but better, and it came out 8 years earlier. No thank you. If you're looking for a lesbian rep just to be a lesbian rep make peach and daisy kiss in mario odyssey 2 add uhhhhhhhhhh.......

...Damn there really aren't many good lesbians in video games are there. All I can think of is the girl from Life is Strange and the girl from The Last of Us but I don't know anything about those games. Ah well, Samus is canonically lesbian enough for me.

Thrall

Chance: 0%
Who? I mean I know who, but... who? World of Warcraft will never be on a Nintendo console in any form, and Thrall will never be in Smash in any form. Almost as non-nintendo as Master Chief, except people actually are asking for master chief (for some godforsaken reason)

Want: 0%
I think you can just wager a guess from the above that I don't like WoW. I guess he'd be more unique than generic anime RPG protagonist #456, but that's not saying much.

Predictions:
Hat Kid- 0.97%
Hollow Knight- 7.43% (and a side prediction that every single person will say "if we're talking mii costumes this goes up by a lot")

Noms Zeraora x5

Firstly she's a lesbian, which we don't have (though I am eyeing Bayo, I can't say for sure on her).
1582056709681.png



(this image is from an official nintendo-licensed comic btw)
 

Calamitas

Smash Lord
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Cheers luv, cavalry's queer!

Chance: 15%
I just don't really see it happening. Sure, Overwatch has some popularity in Japan and is on Switch now, but it just doesn't strike me as the kind of series that Sakurai, his team, or even Nintendo would really go out of their way to feature in Smash. If an Overwatch character is gonna make it in, though, it's no doubt her.

Chance: 5%
Never played Overwatch, got no interest in the genre. Having a canonically lesbian character in the game would be neat, but that's not really a proper selling point for her.

Thrall Rating Reforged Refunded

Just gonna quote my own rating from last time.
It ain't easy being green. . . stop poking me!

Chance: 5%
Well, chances for a Blizzard character aren't too terribly in and of itself. But Warcraft? Yeah, I'm having my doubts. As others have said, this franchise is pretty much exclusively on PC, and not too particularly popular in Japan. That alone is pretty hefty strike against Thrall - and the fact that he isn't really what I'd consider a consistent protagonist isn't making it much better.

Want: 60%
Yeah, I'd kinda like that. I only ever played Warcraft III, but that at least quite a bit. There are other characters from the series that I'd prefer seeing, like Arthas, Illidans or even Jaina or Maiev. But really, Thrall wouldn't bee too bad.
Predictions:
Hat Kid - 0.21%
Hollow Knight - 5.04%

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.
 
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Messages
987
Tracer

Chance: 0%
I'm sorry, but aside from the developers being okay with, Tracer (or any Overwatch character) has nothing going for her. The game isn't nearly as popular as it used to be, and the only person I know who actually WANTS her is a Youtuber named Professor Thorgi. Plus, if you all thought Byleth was irrelevant, at least people still care about his game almost a year later. Overwatch's bubble just... popped, if you know what I mean.
Want: 0%
I'll admit, I couldn't get into Overwatch. Everybody acted like it was the game that saved the industry and that Blizzard could do no wrong, but... there's nothing there for me. I'm not even that big on TF2, but even THAT has more charm to me. Plus, and this is more on me, the Hong Kong controversy REALLY rubbed me the wrong way. I know Nintendo probably doesn't care (they're working with Konami in Smash), but it still has to be addressed.

Abstain on Thrall. I know nothing about him.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 

CHAMPIONX9

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
229
Tracer Chance 9%
Overwatch sold pretty well on the switch. I can imagine overwatch 2 doing the same. I'm not sure about Sakurai, but I can see Nintendo pushing for Tracer. People have said before that there is no overlap between smash and overwatch fans, but if that's true, it can serve the function of giving more coverage by bringing in a new demographic to sell more fighter passes. Also it's notable that overwatch reaches many different countries. That could be a possible motivator to put her in the game.

To find her chances, consider that there might be about 100 characters that are viable promotional picks. Overwatch is pretty big, so she can be in the top 50 or even top 25. Assuming 2 spots on dlc are promotional then at 2/50 she has at least a 4% chance. At 2/25 to 8% chance.
If 3 of the dlc are promotional (with 6 new characters its possible. Also, the new hero was used so thats also promotional in a way) then we get 3/50 to 3/25.
6% chance to 12% chance. I think it's more likely that there are 3 promotional characters so I'd say that her chances are between 6 and 12 percent. I'll take the average and say Tracer's chances are 9% to be in the smash dlc. And personally, based on Blizzard being vocal about wanting characters, makes me think that they didn't get any characters in smash, but that's just conjecture based on loose information and assumptions. Like, if you already got what you want, you wouldn't need to be asking for it, would you?

Tracer Want: 70 %
I am concerned about balancing issues. Tracer might be very powerful in competitive play. At the same time there are people actively against Tracer, but I guess that's technically a minority, so I guess it's fine, but there are def people who will be lukewarm about it. I would be happy. Music wise, there is a lot of room for smash arrangements, so that could improve the overwatch universe. Overwatch 2 is coming in hot with some new music, so if that gets added to smash I think things will work out.

Thrall chance .01%
He doesn't seem like a promotional pick, so I calculate on different criteria. The character space within world of warcraft is probably like 5 potential characters from world of war craft. Then there is like maybe 10 others within the blizzard activision space. So just from within that space you have about a 1/15 or 7 percent chance. (I weigh him equally against other characters since he does have stature, and the choice between all these different characters is a bit arbitrary and based on hidden information.) What are the chances of a non-promotional Blizzard Activision character? Count the number of possible parties.
Credits of Smash Ultimate said:
PlatinumGames Inc.
SQUARE ENIX CO., LTD.
MONOLITHSOFT
BANDAI NAMCO Entertainment Inc
KANAME
CAPCOM CO., LTD.
SEGA
Konami Digital Entertainment
INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
Hobonichi Co., Ltd. / APE inc.
The Pokémon Company
Creatures Inc.
GAME FREAK inc.
HAL Laboratory, Inc.
Nintendo
Microsoft


(other) Companies
Not all of these companies matter too much and to the same degree, and at the same time there are various companies that are not in smash yet, but could join. Lets assume that there are 49 other companies from which nintendo can pull characters from beside blizzard/activision. so 1/50 is 2% chance.
So 7% chance times 2% chance times 6 character slots, means 0.0084 % chance. Which we can round to .01% chance.

Want 30%
I think he would be cool. He's not really like any other character in Smash, and I'd be fine with his inclusion. Wow is worthy of a spot, and I like him better than other Wow reps as he seems more unique.
 
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Messages
507
Tracer Chance 9%
Overwatch sold pretty well on the switch. I can imagine overwatch 2 doing the same. I'm not sure about Sakurai, but I can see Nintendo pushing for Tracer. People have said before that there is no overlap between smash and overwatch fans, but if that's true, it can serve the function of giving more coverage by bringing in a new demographic to sell more fighter passes. Also it's notable that overwatch reaches many different countries. That could be a possible motivator to put her in the game.

To find her chances, consider that there might be about 100 characters that are viable promotional picks. Overwatch is pretty big, so she can be in the top 50 or even top 25. Assuming 2 spots on dlc are promotional then at 2/50 she has at least a 4% chance. At 2/25 to 8% chance.
If 3 of the dlc are promotional (with 6 new characters its possible. Also, the new hero was used so thats also promotional in a way) then we get 3/50 to 3/25.
6% chance to 12% chance. I think it's more likely that there are 3 promotional characters so I'd say that her chances are between 6 and 12 percent. I'll take the average and say Tracer's chances are 9% to be in the smash dlc. And personally, based on Blizzard being vocal about wanting characters, makes me think that they didn't get any characters in smash, but that's just conjecture based on loose information and assumptions. Like, if you already got what you want, you wouldn't need to be asking for it, would you?

Tracer Want: 70 %
I am concerned about balancing issues. Tracer might be very powerful in competitive play. At the same time there are people actively against Tracer, but I guess that's technically a minority, so I guess it's fine, but there are def people who will be lukewarm about it. I would be happy. Music wise, there is a lot of room for smash arrangements, so that could improve the overwatch universe. Overwatch 2 is coming in hot with some new music, so if that gets added to smash I think things will work out.

Thrall chance .01%
He doesn't seem like a promotional pick, so I calculate on different criteria. The character space within world of warcraft is probably like 5 potential characters from world of war craft. Then there is like maybe 10 others within the blizzard activision space. So just from within that space you have about a 1/15 or 7 percent chance. (I weigh him equally against other characters since he does have stature, and the choice between all these different characters is a bit arbitrary and based on hidden information.) What are the chances of a non-promotional Blizzard Activision character? Count the number of possible parties.

Not all of these companies matter too much and to the same degree, and at the same time there are various companies that are not in smash yet, but could join. Lets assume that there are 49 other companies from which nintendo can pull characters from beside blizzard/activision. so 1/50 is 2% chance.
So 7% chance times 2% chance times 6 character slots, means 0.0084 % chance. Which we can round to .01% chance.

Want 30%
I think he would be cool. He's not really like any other character in Smash, and I'd be fine with his inclusion. Wow is worthy of a spot, and I like him better than other Wow reps as he seems more unique.
This guy did the math. Holy crap dude. This must of took a lot of time.
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
346
Tracer

Chance: 1%
Sorry I don't see her. From pretty much any viewpoint, Fortnite would get the greenlight first. Blizzard and Nintendo aren't that chummy in the first place. Not bad relations by any means mind you, but nothing to write home about either. I wouldn't say no to a Bowser Jr skin featuring D.Va though. The up b would (sadly) be a perfect fit! Though the tonguing might be a tad disturbing...

Want: 30%
The rewind ability would definitely give us amazing clips for sure, but it could easily be either broken or worthless. That's the kind of ability that hardly hits the happy middle. And Tracer has another ability which lets her do the same but moving forward instead. Honestly, she'd be even more obnoxious to fight than the likes of ZSS or Sonic. Cool abilities but I can't imagine having fun facing her...

Thrall

Chance: 0%
Of all characters to choose from the Warcraft lore... Thrall? Not Arthas, Illidan or even Sylvanas? I wouldn't even put Thrall in the top 3 of likely Warcraft candidates, so no way is he ever getting in.

Want: 0%
I hold nothing against Thrall but I'm fairly sure his moveset would be at least partly inspired by his HotS incarnation... and that's not a hero I enjoyed playing a lot. I doubt it'd be any different in Smash. I'd rather have Arthas or Illidan. Especially Illidan.

Predictions:
Hat Kid - 1.8%
Hollow Knight - 1.4%
If Sans (and now Cuphead) didn't make it in, I doubt people will give other indies much of a shot as full-fledged characters. Mii costumes though, perhaps.

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
 
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Tracer

Chance: 0.01%

Want: 0%

Simply put, I doubt a Blizzard rep is happening. The language barrier made Banjo kind of difficult on Sakurai's side to put in already. There's also the Blitzchung controversy that put a very bad light on Activision Blizzard, way more than their other controversies before it to the point the Switch version Overwatch launch party was cancelled.

And because of Activision Blizzard's scummy things lately that's crowning them as worst Video Game company of all time. I don't want any Activision Blizzard rep near Smash.

Thrall

Chance: 0.01%

Want: 0%

Same thing with Tracer. Minus the whole launch party being cancelled thing. But Blizzard is pushing Overwatch instead of Warcraft which dampens things anyways.

And like I said with Tracer. I don't want any Activision Blizzard reps in Smash.

Hat Kid Prediction: 2.2%

Hollow Knight: 1.3%

Nominate Darksiders rep x10
 
Joined
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Messages
6,943
Overwatch is popular in some parts of the east, but seemingly not Japan.
From what I've seen it's popular over there.
Game is on Switch so main character is confirmed for Smash. That's literally the only reason people think she's likely.
I'm sorry, but aside from the developers being okay with, Tracer (or any Overwatch character) has nothing going for her.
Or maybe the fact that she's the mascot of a massively successful (over 50 million players) and acclaimed (won GOTY over Uncharted 4) videogame franchise?
From pretty much any viewpoint, Fortnite would get the greenlight first.
What does Fortnite have to do with anything? That's owned by Epic, not Blizzard.
 
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Messages
645
Storm, Earth, & Fire, Heed Our Poll

Chance:
Tracer: 5%
Thrall: 12%

I'm sort of combining these two because at the end of the day, it all boils down to a simple question: would Nintendo want a Blizzard representative?

To say that Blizzard isn't hot stuff right now is lowballing their situation by a supreme margin - but then again, Konami was (and arguably still is) in the same boat. So despite the fact that Warcraft 3: Reforged performed a world-first in physically worsening all copies of its original version, I'd like to invite the question that Nintendo would not care about that, if they cared at all - this is a company tone-deaf enough to continue with the release of Byleth, after all. As mentioned before, the Overwatch launch event was cancelled by Blizzard themselves, not Nintendo.

Still, the question is much worse for Blizzard - and if Nintendo lacks interest, then there's no point continuing the discussion. As we've seen, their only Western pick for all of FP1 was a very conservative grab for the most Nintendo-oriented third-party in history. And when it comes to Top Western Companies Closest To Nintendo, Blizzard doesn't even break the Top 5. Almost no big ports of their games, no interest beyond lip service and uninspired references - Nintendo would have to make a pretty far leap towards either a trended shooter or a bunch of fantasy subgenres for Blizzard to beat the rest of the pack. All in all, it's a low shot for Blizzard to get picked over everyone else, with middling rewards at best even if they did.

With no more leaked Switch cases, the case looks much worse for Overwatch these days too. Transitioning well into the last word of the phrase "come and gone", even the genre itself has passed from the minds of developer, its latest inspired evolution having collaborate with battle royales within Apex Legends. And considering that Overwatch was a mere 3-4 years ago, that's a short time for a genre to peak and crash. It had plenty of limelight in its time, but none of that was spent on a Nintendo platform - Blizzard certainly took their time to port the shooter, and Overwatch 2 was practically built to be ported, so there's no need to negotiate for that. Given Blizzard's current incarnation, it seems unlikely that courting them would guarantee even more ports of other future titles unless the next console printed even more money for everyone on it. Of course, Nintendo could believe that Overwatch was still a major, successful franchise, and the sales certainly don't lie about that - internet popularity isn't the only reliable source of information in this regard.

Warcraft, in comparison, has less modern popularity, but has a much more solid legacy to speak of. As I've as mentioned before, there are many roads that lead back to it; if you wanted slices of MOBAs, MMOs, and RTSs in the Smash representation pie, then Warcrtaft would hit all those birds with one storm. But that's the only good reason to pick Warcraft - it's got little appeal to Nintendo besides that, and it doesn't even seem bothered to port Hearthstone. Warcraft has never appeared on a Nintendo platform in any shape or form, and that'd almost be enough to knock any franchise out of the race entirely.

If Warcraft somehow got the invite, I still believe that Thrall is the likeliest bet, and much of that is reinforced by Sakurai's choice and implementation of Byleth over all other Three Houses reps. I don't mean to put down Arthas and Illidan, they're both iconic and have a good shot at being chosen in such cases, but Warcraft was not a game built by either corrupted princes or demonic elves.

But all that assumes that Nintendo wants one of Blizzard's franchises in the first place, and these days, I get the impression that Nintendo was never really interested in that particular loot box.


Want:
Tracer: 5%
Thrall: 35%

Time-rewinds, projectiles, and living by merely dodging everything? It's hard to imagine Tracer being fun to fight against if she were implemented with any accuracy, and I've never found her as one of the best characters in that roster.

Thrall, again, would be a character that doesn't really have any equivalents in any other video game. A luxury potential moveset, with his storm hammer and elemental prowess, but not one I'd be super willing to put ahead of those who might deserve the Smash invitation more.


Nominations
Gooigi x5
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
346
What does Fortnite have to do with anything? That's owned by Epic, not Blizzard.
FPS. And if we're getting anyone Blizzard, I highly doubt Overwatch will be first in line over Diablo, Starcraft or Warcraft - the latter whose universe spawned Hearthstone which rekindled interest in card games.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,532
Tracer

Chance - 5% - Overwatch has come and while it's not quite gone it's not as strong as it used to be. While it has a good amount of appeal, it's hard to say if that will cross over into Smash appeal. Blizzard has historically has lukewarm workings with Nintendo, so I'm not certain either will be approaching the other to get anyone in. I think Tracer has the better shot of the two, though, as she's the only relevant character that also is on a Nintendo system.

Want - 35% - Not too interested in her. She honestly sound rather like a pain to fight against, with time rewind being a thing.

Thrall

Chance - 0% - Basically the same as Tracer, without having a Nintendo presence (at least as far as I am aware). Even Joker managed to eek out a game shortly before his release. As a result, as of now I don't consider him viable.

Want - 45% - Eh... I don't find him interesting. No investment in him or his abilities, so I'd rather have a character that at least looks interesting.


Nominations

De Blob X5
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,943
FPS. And if we're getting anyone Blizzard, I highly doubt Overwatch will be first in line over Diablo, Starcraft or Warcraft - the latter whose universe spawned Hearthstone which rekindled interest in card games.
Fortnite isn't an FPS.

And I hard disagree on the latter part, mainly due to lack of iconic characters and appeal to the console market.
Oh is it? I thought Japan wasn't huge on those type of games
They usually aren't, but I guess they're more drawn to the colorful and distinctive aesthetic of games like Overwatch.
 

Ninjaed

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Messages
346
Fortnite isn't an FPS.

And I hard disagree on the latter part, mainly due to lack of iconic characters and appeal to the console market.
True, not an FPS but a shooter game nonetheless. More popular, successful and impactful than Overwatch too.

Diablo the game knew a pretty decent success when it came out, topping the PC sales charts and all. I'm not sure anymore what it innovated so I won't venture there. Don't want to spread misinformation. Though I'll agree that it's the weakest of the 3. Thinking about it some more, I think I agree Overwatch deserves the 3rd spot more.

Starcraft became the national e-sport in South Korea. Its pro players are celebrities. The military also used it to train battle tactics. As for the game itself, it's been stated to be the standard to which RTS games should aspire. Finally, iconic characters? Well you've got Kerrigan for starters, or Raynor. If you prefer the Protos, then maybe Phenix would be right up your alley.

Warcraft birthed World of Warcraft. It also birthed Hearthstone (and got a film too, for what that's worth). I won't go in more detail here because I deem it not to be needed. But you said you hard disagree on the latter, mainly due to lack of iconic characters. Arthas, Illidan, Sylvanas... all 3 are pretty well-known. Thrall also has that green-skinned toothy orcish look many have grown familiar with. Also, Arthas and Thrall both sport the "iconic" cartoonish WoW armours, while Illidan and Sylvanas share those silly elven eyebrows + glowy eyes. I'd say that's plenty. No one would've claimed Joker is more iconic or recognisable than those 4 and yet look who got in.

I'll however agree Warcraft doesn't have much console market appeal as an RTS. Hearthstone would though I don't know how relevant it still is nowadays.

Edit: oh and as always, sorry if anything I said sounds harsh or demeaning or whatever. I only mean to discuss so I hope you take no offence.
 
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Sari

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Not sure if anyone was planning to nominate Concept: More DLC After Second Pass, but if they were then this pretty much kills it now.
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom

Not sure if anyone was planning to nominate Concept: More DLC After Second Pass, but if they were then this pretty much kills it now.
Gonna make a bold assumption.

No plans as of now to continue. If this sells well, they will do something more. And I hate to shoot a messenger, but Sakurai often contradicts himself on stuff like this. My fav example is him saying that Nintendo gave him a short list to approve the choices, but when Byleth came out it was all Nintendo.
 
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Gonna make a bold assumption.

No plans as of now to continue. If this sells well, they will do something more. And I hate to shoot a messenger, but Sakurai often contradicts himself on stuff like this. My fav example is him saying that Nintendo gave him a short list to approve the choices, but when Byleth came out it was all Nintendo.
The list thing was actually a fan theory, what Sakurai said was that Nintendo chose the characters while he decided if he could make them work or not.
 
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