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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

NintenRob

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I'll just take this opportunity to rank the characters

Most Hype
:ultridley:-even with asshole who leaked him, this was phenomenal, his reveal captured him perfectly, and the end of an era, plus Verg hadn't proved himself yet so it wasn't a big surprise killer. Help he was the only character in my top 5 who became playable (he was 3)
:ultkrool:-A true out of the blue surprise, Ridley and K Rool, now that was hype, and his trailer had that amazing remix that I still listen to. Absolutely amazing. Thank you Sakurai
:ultdarksamus:-ANOTHER METROID NEWCOMER? my favourite echo by far, despite being an echo, it captures the eeriness of the character. Super creepy and awesome animations. Creepy and eerie captures a lot of what Metroid is about so this is great! And Dark Samus is so lucky to be playable
:ultsimon:-Never played Castlevania, but now I really want to, I love all the content it brings, and the music especially is great from what I've heard. And Dracula looks like a fun boss.
:ultpiranha:-another character who avoided the leaks, well it might not have, but we certainly didn't believe any that mentioned it. I thought this was just funny, and it's just a free bonus and looks super fun and creative. But it is a bit of double edged sword, they added a generic piranha plant before a lot of characters
:ultinkling:-Woomy! Never played the first Splatoon but I enjoyed 2! And I do see the appeal and I love the music and I'm glad the stage is something from both games. It was super obvious though. It's hard to remember they're newcomers. Still look fun.
:ultdaisy:- I like Daisy, I thought her as a clone was super obvious and I'm happy to see her. and I like playing Peach.
:ultisabelle:-I thought this was obvious, she was in Mario Kart so I thought she was pretty likely for Smash, and I'm happy to have her, she just seems very boring, especially her trailer. But I love the absurdity of Ridley vs Isabelle
:ultchrom:-there are characters I'd prefer over another Fire Emblem character, even when talking echoes. But I understand why he's here.
:ultken:-makes sense but I'm not a big fan of Third Party characters getting extra characters, although they're just echoes I guess
:ultrichter:-see above, except I had never heard of this character before Smash which is a problem for me. I understand why, since Simon burrows moves from his game. But I'm not that interested
:ultincineroar:-the worst addition in Smash history and by a wide margin. I hate everything about this Pokemon. I would rather have no Pokemon, I would rather get rid of it and replace it with nothing. We didn't need a tenth Pokemon and we certainly didn't this Pokemon that adds nothing. I will never like this Pokemon, I think it's an absolute waste of a Pokemon. Everything about this is terrible
 

VexTheHex

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Part of me feel the negativity at Incineroar would of probably been less without the return of Pichu, Squirtle, and Ivysaur. Everyone Is Here inflated the Pokemon roster more than he did!


Unique Newcomers Hype
1st - :ultincineroar: - Pokemon is a series that I still play and keep in touch with, so it means more to me than some of these other series right off the bat. That being said, I found the Pokemon support rather wonky for Smash Ultimate and hated the general hive mind that was frequent on here. While many were falling and rolling in the Grinch leak, I was one of those hoping Incineroar still was in regardless if the leak was true or not. After all the hate and smug attitude from Grinch followers, Pokemon haters, and Decidueye fanboys... it happened! And despite the attitude on here, I have seen a lot of love for the fire cat in reaction videos or even people admitting they were wrong and he looks super fun.
2nd - :ultkrool: - Donkey Kong 64 supplied me many hours of fun back in the day, so I'm happy to see the reptile make his debut. I feel his addition really helps make the DK series pop on the roster instead of just being the Kongs!
3rd - :ultinkling: - I picked up Splatoon 2 and played it some to what the fuss was about. It's fun and creative. I feel they are pretty cute and cool additions. The ink could be pretty interesting to learn and play with and against. I wish Purple didn't have a weird helmet on, so I'll probably go with Blue.
4th - :ultsimon: - Never played his games but always heard about him. Honestly I grew up playing tons of Zombie Ate My Neighbors, so the fact he is a guy fighting and killing a bunch of different monsters and such just touches on that. He looks pretty interesting to.
5th - :ultpiranha: - As some who'd love Toad, Waluigi, or Paper Mario featuring his allies from the original 2 games, I must admit Piranha Plant wasn't who I was rooting for, but he is truly shocking and nobody expected this. He looks cool and silly overall, and I can't hate him.
6th - :ultisabelle: - Never played Animal Crossing and have almost no connection to it. I didn't care for Villager in Smash 4 either. But she is very cute and more welcoming than her ugly Villager friend.
7th - :ultridley: - I have played a Metroid game with him in it. Yes he is scary and a staple to the series. But in smash... I still am not that big on him. He looks weird being both scaled down drastically and not really matching the style of the roster at all like he took the wrong door to the Sci Fi convention and fell into the roster. That being said, I'm happy for his fans and do think he is a great Metroid rep. I just don't really care for how he looks.


Echo Newcomers Hype
1st - :ultrichter: - What? Who is he?!? Hot Belmont?!? Alright Simon is now forgotten. Anyways he took me by total shock while crushing many fan rules under his boots. 3rd party series will never get a 2nd rep? Flattened. Echoes will only be Nintendo? Flattened. He opened doors and I love him for it.
2nd - :ultchrom: - I only played Ike's games, but Chrom's deconfirmation in 4 was rather cruel. So when I saw his white boots and gloves flash on screen I did get excited he got his day. While another Marth isn't exciting, I got to say his fans deserved some justice!
3rd - :ultken: - Won't lie, his reveal was pretty awesome. I didn't even buy Ryu in Smash 4, so my excitement isn't huge. But it'll be cool to try both him and Ryu out for the first time!
4th - :ultdarksamus: - She helps add that Metroid atmosphere.
5th - :ultdaisy: - As someone who loves Peach, I would think I would be more excited for another character using her move pool. But I'm just not that excited for her in comparison to others. I'll use her for sure and may fall in love with her, but she just never popped for me.


Everyone Is Here! (Returning Cuts)
1st- :ultwolf: - He was my most played in Brawl, I was wrecked he was cut.
2nd - :squirtle: - I played him quite a bit, was happy to see him back even though I didn't really want it.
3rd - :ivysaur: - Same as above but lesser extent.
4th - :ulticeclimbers: - Was nice to have them back.
5th - :ultsnake: - No personal attachment, nerfed butt as well.
6th - :ultpichu: - Cute but egh.
7th - :ultyounglink: - Some things didn't need brought back, 3 Links is too many.
 
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MasterOfKnees

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Most Hype: :ultridley:- Self explanatory choice, I'm sure people would appreciate me not going on about this guy for the gazillionth time :p.

Least Hype: :ultincineroar: - I think they did him well, so it's not that I dislike him or anything, but he doesn't feel quite as big or special as the other newcomers.

Most Hype (Echo): :ultdarksamus: - Obviously a huge Metroid fan, but at the same time the way they animated her is so great. She might not have the most gameplay distinctions from her original counterpart, but the way she moves and acts is extremely unique compared to the rest of the cast.

Least Hype (Echo): :ultdaisy: - She's alright, but I really don't like playing Peach, so another one of her is not exactly my cup of tea.

Most Hype (Returning): :ultpichu:- Actually a bit crazy to me that I'm picking this little guy, but his appearance in the Everyone Is Here trailer really stood out to me, it was at that moment that I knew they meant everyone. That, and he's so damn adorable now.

Least Hype (Returning): :ulticeclimbers:- Not a fan of them in previous games, and I fully expected them to return as well, so meh.
 
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Erimir

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Sakurai not picking the characters probably hurts obscure/odd characters (well, that and :ultpiranha: already fills that role) and boosts characters that have promotional value. Characters that are highly requested can probably still get in though, but they might be less so if they don't promote other products. Who knows what kind of negotiations go with 3rd-party characters though - Geno and Banjo-Kazooie may still have chances even if they don't directly promote new games.

Also, I'm a little surprised at how little hate :ultpiranha: is getting. Not unpleasantly, just unexpected.
 
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DaUsername

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Best: :ultkrool:
He was my most wanted character.
Worst: :ultincineroar: or :ultpiranha:
They didn't really deserve to get in.

Overall ranking:
:ultkrool:>:ultridley:>Everyone is Here!>:ultsimon:=:ultrichter:>:ultinkling:>:ultken:>:ultisabelle:>:ultdarksamus:=:ultdaisy:>:ultchrom:>>>:ultincineroar:=:ultpiranha:
 
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Opossum

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Best: :ultchrom:
Literally the only time Smash made me shed some tears. My favorite video game character finally got his chance.
Least: :ultdaisy:
She's a low-effort echo so I don't hate her, but she was easily the most meh inclusion for me. Memoryman didn't help lol.

Ranking:
:ultchrom::ultsimon::ultisabelle::ultkrool::ultincineroar::ultpiranha::ultinkling::ultken::ultridley::ultrichter::ultdarksamus::ultdaisy:
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
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Unique fighter rankings

1. :ultkrool:
2. :ultsimon:
3. :ultridley:
4. :ultinkling:
5. :ultpiranha:
6.:ultincineroar:
7. :ultisabelle:

Echos
1. :ultchrom:
2. :ultrichter:
3. :ultdaisy:
4. :ultken:
5. :ultdarksamus:

Returners
1. :ultsnake:
2. :ulticeclimbers:
3.:ultwolf:
4. :ultpichu:
5. :ultpokemontrainer:
6. :ultyounglink:
 

TCT~Phantom

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I’ll be putting out a schedule for our first month of structured rerates tonight, thank you all for suggestions!

Now, time for a big question. Will there be a season 2? What will DLC look like?
 

Aetheri

W/E happens don't panic...
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Sure I'll have a go

Unique fighters Ranking
1-:ultridley:-OMGWTFBBQ!!! NOT TOO BIG!!! Always have fun with the heavies and Ridley will be my number one heavy! Looks fun as hell to play as well! CAN'T ****ING WAIT!!!
2-:ultpiranha:-I'm legit excited as **** to play as Piranha Plant, what an age we live in!!! Probably the best reaction I've ever had to a character reveal.
3-:ultsimon:-RIP Luigi, was a hype trailer though! Still need to get around to playing some Castlevania though
4-:ultkrool:-:ultkingdedede: troll nuff said...
5-:ultincineroar:-honestly was kind of underwhelmed with his reveal, but I was #TeamLitten so...
6-:ultinkling:-Probably would've been more hyped about Inklings if they were a stand alone reveal but was more hyped about the announcement of the new game, still look fun though
7-:ultisabelle:-"""Unique""" I was legit stone faced with her reveal, like "Oh. Isabelle's in Smash.....yay" Not a big fan of Animal Crossing but still happy for her fans, already got more than I expected at this point so can't be mad.

Echo Ranking
1-:ultdarksamus:-My second most wanted fighter for years! Metroid Prime herself is here! Coming into Smash Ultimate I all but given up on Dark Samus ever being playable, and despite the wasted potential for her as a unique fighter, but beggars can't be choosers! With the limited amount of new characters I feel lucky she's in to begin with! And there's always future titles for her to get some extra work done!
2-:ultken:-Me on Ken's reveal "EVERY LEAK IS REAL!!!" Still cool to see.
3-:ultchrom:-Wasn't that hyped but as someone who uses Roy and Ike fairly often, I'm definitely intrigued to try him out
4-:ultrichter:-felt he's unnecessary, Simon was enough but he's extra (plus Dark Samus was revealed a few minutes after him) so whatever
5-:ultdaisy:-yay daisy....

Returning Veterans
1-:ultsnake:-Never thought it would happen, but he's here nonetheless
2-:ultwolf:-Close between Snake and Wolf, my Smash buddy mained both of them in brawl so y'know he's happy to see them both come back as well.
3-:ulticeclimbers:-glad they're back, did use them a lot in Melee!
4-:ultpokemontrainer:-No solo Zard kinda sucks, but Leaf is a plus, brings back the transformation mechanic which is cool even if Zelda and Samus still no longer have it. Squirtle and Ivy are both unique fighters as well so it's a good way to increase the roster regardless.
5-:ultpichu:-well, he's cute at least
6-:ultyounglink:-Was never a fan of baby Link, but honestly at this point since everyone else came back wynaut?
 

Quetzal77

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My most hype:
:ultganondorf::ultike::ultinkling::ultridley::ultroy::ultdarksamus::ultshulk::ultsimon::ultrichter::ultwolf::ultzelda:
A mix of old mains who are being hyped as better this time, reworked veterans, and interesting looking newcomers.

Least hype:
:ultcorrin::ultincineroar::ultdoc::ultdaisy::ultpichu::ultpiranha::ultchrom:
Characters I don't like and/or feel shouldn't be playable.
 

BlueMagician

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Most hype: The Belmonts. :ultrichter::ultsimon: Despite the fact that my only requested newcomer that made it in was Inkling:ultinkling:, and that K. Rool:ultkrool: has me excited to play a heavyweight, the Belmonts just look so fun and strong and true to form. I'm also looking forward to new Link:ultlink:, Isabelle:ultisabelle:, Ken:ultken:, and in a certain way Chrom:ultchrom:, however...

Least Hype: Chrom:ultchrom:, Dark Samus:ultdarksamus:, Piranha Plant:ultpiranha:
I love Chrom but I am simultaneously hype and unhype at the same time, because I'm not sure if I'll be able to stay on stage with him. At least he CAN fight, though, unlike...
Dark Samus, because 1, both Samus and Dark Samus don't seem very strong and 2, the two aren't very different.
Piranha Plant, I'm just not interested gameplay-wise. I'll pass on other comments about it.

edit: apparently the question changed while I was typing, sorry
 
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Sari

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Will there be a season 2?

It is hard to say if there will be one, though I think it's safe to say there are currently no plans for one at the moment. SSB4 had 3 vets and 4 newcomers as DLC while Ultimate will have 5 newcomers so they are roughly the same in terms of post-launch content. The Switch has already greatly outsold the Wii U so Nintendo may see season 2 as a chance to print out some more money. However, one thing to remember is that SSB4 was also on the 3DS, a system which as sold more than the Wii U and Switch combined. As a result we might get the same DLC length Smash 4 got.

It is still too unclear to call for at the moment so for now I say a S2 chance is 50%.

What will DLC look like?


My predictions of the 5 DLC characters in no particular order:
  • Heihachi: Tekken is insanely popular especially after Tekken 7's release, Namco helped out with Smash, and Heihachi was considered for SSB4 and even had a mii costume in said game.
  • Steve: Minecraft is gigantic and the recent news that Nintendo helped with the roster makes me think he'll be added as they'll make a ton of money.
  • Edelgard: Would be a great way to promote Three Houses and is definitely the most popular of the Three Houses protagonists.
  • Banjo: Highly requested and Phil Spencer is very open to adding him (since he's high up with Microsoft he can maybe pull some strings to add him).
  • Possible SE rep: Even when ignoring Vergeben's comments I think there is a good chance of Smash getting another SE rep. It's hard to say who though if I had to narrow it down it'd probably be Crono, a DQ rep, or another FF character. Maybe Lara Croft if you want to think really outside the box?
Honorable mentions:
  • Celica: If a Three Houses protagonist can't make it in then she is probably the next best FE pick due to her popularity.
  • Elma: With Rex being a mii costume I feel this boosts her chances a lot.
  • Rayman: Highly requested and the recent Mario x Rabbids crossover game helps his chances a lot.
 

GoodGrief741

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On Season Two: I don’t think there will be a Season 2. Sakurai must want to take a break, or work on other projects, and unless it sells like gangbusters, I think the higher-ups have enough respect/loyalty towards him to allow it. As for the universe where it sells like gangbusters, I’m sure we’re not living in it. Nintendo higher-ups are bound to make ****ty, Corrin-level decisions.

On Season One: I’m expecting all third-party characters. And not, like, cool ones that people want (like Geno or Banjo), but promotional ones (like the Stevez). We might get a Sora or a Rayman snuck in there if we’re lucky, but I don’t expect to see Dixie or Dee, even if Nintendo is aware they did great on the ballot.
 

Nemuresu

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With what we've been told about the current Pass:
Gen 8 pokémon: Expected out of promotional reasons.
Whoever the new lord in Three Houses is: Same as pokémon.
Neku Sakuraba: I'm still confident where a Square character will join in, and if Nintendo really put their hands on DLC decisions, then chances they probably want to have someone from a recently announced game.
Heihachi Mishima: It's still very suspicious to me that there's seemingly no Tekken content in the game. But who knows, maybe it's just some strange absence like how Isaac wasn't in Sm4sh.
Steve: Minecraft is incredibly popular and Nintendo knows that already. They probably won't want to waste a single chance to get content from that game.
 

TheCJBrine

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DLC Expectations:

  1. Geno/Sora/Dragon Quest - SE character is likely even without Vergeben's rumors; we could get Geno as a fan-pick and maybe to sell more SNES Classics, Sora because another fan-pick and a lot of money for SE (although also Disney so his chances may be lowered given that the DLC characters are from suggestions Nintendo gave Sakurai to pick from), or Dragon Quest although it seems SE may not even know when the new DQ games will release on Switch. We could also get a new FF character but idk.
  2. Banjo-Kazooie/Steve? - Given Vergeben's Minecraft content rumors, I think we could get either Steve? with a Minecraft stage and music, or the same thing except replace Steve? with Banjo-Kazooie and add in B-K music as well as Minecraft music, maybe replace the stage with Spiral Mountain. Minecraft is likely given the whole "Better-Together" thing between Nintendo and Microsoft which Minecraft started, and B-K could potentially sell N64 Classics if their games are on it plus they're a fan-pick.
  3. Lloyd - Namco could get another character from their franchises, and he seems to be a popular pick.
  4. Gen 8 Pokemon - GameFreak, The Pokemon Company and Nintendo may have given Sakurai some concept arts for him to choose from, so if he picked a Pokemon it's most-likely gonna be for advertising Generation 8. I am hoping for Gengar, however, despite how unlikely it is that they'll let him pick from earlier generations, not to mention he may not even consider Gengar due to the huge number of Pokemon.
  5. 1st-party character - I don't know who it would be; we could get Bandana Dee, King Boo (to advertise the new Luigi's Mansion), or literally anyone else. From what Sakurai said about Corrin, I don't think he'll want to include another Fire Emblem character, that is unless his team convinces him yet again.

Season 2:

Chance: 50% - It could go either way, really. I'm not expecting one to happen, though I wouldn't be surprised if one did, even if they didn't involve Sakurai with it.

Want: 100% - I'd like a Season 2. Not only would it give missed characters another chance, but we'd get even more characters to play as (although we have a huge number of characters already).
 
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Ridrool64

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Hopes are not going up for a Season 2. I give it a 20% Chance: this will sell, but I assume that Sakurai is totally done with this game and wants to relax, or at least move on.

As for the DLC Expectations, rather than try to list 5 characters, I will list everybody with a serious chance. In bold are characters I'm certain we will see.

  • Characters mysteriously absent even as Spirits
  • A new SEGA character
  • A new Bamco character
  • A new Squeenix character
  • A Ubisoft character
  • A Microsoft character
  • A Japanese Indie character
  • Somebody promotional, to bolster an upcoming game.
Edit: I forgot Want. Want for Season 2: 99%.
 
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Aetheri

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Season 2?
I'm betting on there not being a second season. My impressions from the last direct is Sakurai pretty much giving all the information in advance (apart from the content for DLC) so as to give everyone the head's up what the plan is. With all the leaks and rumours and with the fact that Sakurai's basically been a slave to Smash for like the past 10 years I think him and the rest of the team are ready to move on

DLC?
Well, before Sakurai's tweets my predictions were
1-Heihachi
2-Banjo & Kazooie
3-Crash Bandicoot
4-Sora
5-Elma

But now that we know a bit more information I'm leaning more towards
1-Bandanna Dee
2-Elma
3-Edelgard
4-Banjo & Kazooie
5-Rayman
With slightly less third party involvement...

Bandanna Dee's been a popular request for a while and given he's one of Nintendo's top requested fighters who's not an assist or anything like that Sakurai may very well go for him.
Rex isn't happening, Sakurai literally said he couldn't add characters from certain games because of timing and specifically referred to XC2. His Mii Costume also wouldn't be added as a bonus for downloading the fighter pack if he was going to be one of the fighters. Elma on the other hand still has a decent shot.
Of course Nintendo's going to try to build the hype for the newest Fire Emblem game and looking at the newest game there's appears to be three protagonists to choose from. I went with my favourite of the three but seeing as she also uses an axe Edelgard seems possibly the most unique of the three so she could be the most likely choice.
Micorsoft and Nintendo have been pretty close as of late and B&K is one the most highly requested characters that's currently left out of Smash. At the same time Nintendo could go for someone else with a game on the Switch like Travis Touchdown, but Banjo & Kazooie just feels way more of a popular pick.
At first I neglected to pick Rayman because he was in Brawlhalla. Not saying Ubisoft wouldn't go for having Rayman in both games, but I felt Ubisoft put him in Brawlhalla because they couldn't get him into Smash, but while it's still pretty vague 'when' the DLC fighters were decided I feel it wasn't that early in development. Also like with Microsoft, Ubisoft has had some pretty close ties with Nintendo with both Marioand Star Fox crossover recently. Rayman in Smash seems a logical next step for the two companies.
 

Cabbagehead

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Season 2: I'm gonna give it a 30% likelihood. As much of an inevitable money-maker as Smash DLC would be, Sakurai is obviously tired of working on Smash, and doesn't strike me as the type of guy who would just hand over the keys to someone else if he doesn't absolutely have to. If S2 ends up happening, I'm guessing that it'll be in spite of Sakurai's wishes.

Season 1 Expectations: Past experience dictates that I won't care too much for whatever Smash has to offer for DLC. And I still don't know whether to like or dislike the fact that Nintendo picked the characters, rather than Sakurai.

The only characters who could get me excited about DLC are disconfirmed. So, unless Nintendo threw consistency to the wind and made Ashley a playable character anyway, I'm fully expecting an onslaught of cynical third-party picks hand-crafted by an artisan algorithm as the most likely picks to get little Jimmy to steal mommy's wallet.

Basically, I don't see a world where Ultimate's DLC appeals to me, as I'm not particularly fond of the inevitable over-saturation of third-parties, and the few characters who could get me excited are already Assist Trophies. Of course, I'd love to be wrong (read: have Ashley be playable), but as of now, I feel like any optimism is unwarranted.
 

Graf von Tirol

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Predictions for DLC:
* Bandana Waddle Dee (of the Japanese vote results being circulated, this is the unconfirmed character with the most votes)
* Banjo-Kazooie (Microsoft and Nintendo are in talking terms, and there's the real possibility that B-K will be in the N64 Classic)
* Dixie Kong (perhaps that's why Nintendo waited for here; there's enough unique attributes that being an echo will not do her justice)
* Geno (yesterday's news kind of puts a damper to most Square representatives; Geno has the benefit of not only being on a Nintendo-exclusive game with Mario characters, but also being outright acknowledged officially in the past year during SMRPG's anniversary)
* Rayman (was a trophy in 4; Nintendo and Ubisoft are in cordial terms to say the very least)

Season 2 chances: 45% (there may be enough demand to warrant a second round of characters, or they could be content with their lot)

Want: 100% (always good to see additional characters, even ones I have not yet seen)
 
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BlueMagician

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Predictions on if Wave 2 will happen: it would take an expansion pack to Smash itself if they were going that far, as Nintendo probably wants to keep post-launch development resources on Smash at a manageable level otherwise. There might be a non-fighter pass DLC or two after it's done. If it does happen it'll happen with or without Sakurai.

Predictions on Fighter Pass fighters: at least one and no more than two third-party guest fighters.
Possible fighters:
Kirby series fighter: it's been requested for a while and especially with the Japanese. Waddle Dee seems likely but it could be someone else.
Dixie Kong: She seems more likely as nothing is in her way and there's a lack of obvious options.
Octolings: They have enough to be a non-echo fighter, and might be exciting enough.
Tails/Arle Nadja/Lloyd/Heihachi/etc. : If Nintendo's choosing a third party then they'd choose someone from a company they're close with.

Other notes:
Rex+Friends: I want to say it's possible depending on when they actually finalized the roster, but he'd have to be the last one.
ARMS: Surprised they went straight to AT and Costume. Also not strictly impossible, but who would they choose, Min Min?
SE guest: If it happens it'd be from the Square side since the Enix side is stingy.
 
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waddledeeonredyoshi

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The possibility of a season two is certainly there. Nintendo wants the Switch to have a long lifespan so Ultimate will last long as well. It will be five years at minimum before development on the next game even begins. Continuous DLC support for Ultimate seems like the smart thing to do as long as Sakurai takes long breaks between seasons. But I do think after the fighter pass Sakurai might not ever want to work on a Smash game again, even with breaks. Besides that, the pool of first-party newcomers they could use for DLC has become very limited. (Spirits deconfirm characters IMO) A second fighter pass would likely all be third-party. (Unless some big new first-party are created between then and now) Getting their characters in just isn't as easy.
Overal I give it a 30% possibility.

As for predictions... I'm not entirely sure. It's gonna rely on what characters Nintendo made Sakurai choose from. The ballot could be factored in but also could be ignored altogether. But if I had to take a guess...
1) Bandana Waddle Dee
2) Rayman
3) Elma
4) Rythym Heaven rep who isn't Karate Joe/Chorus kids
5) Some suprise third-party meme pick (We're talking Sans Undertale levels here)
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
468
I don't think I've seen Chocobo be mentioned so far. I'm fairly certain that if Square Enix gathers around a table with Nintendo to discuss which emblematic character who could have an interesting concept to bring something fresh to Smash, they'd end up agreeing on Chocobo.

- Not a human(oid) character
- Fits right in with Nintendo's colourful characters like Yoshi, Kirby, the Pokémon, Samus, ...
- Very emblematic as Square Enix's mascot, pretty sure most parents would know him
- Has a lot of lore to pick ideas from
- Starred in several games as the protagonist
- Can use very Final Fantasy-ish stuff like jobs, white/black magic spells
- Has a theme song

He's the one character I'm almost 100% will be available as DLC. So much potential, represents Final Fantasy as a whole.
 

Icedragonadam

Smash Master
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Messages
4,093
Switch FC
SW-5227-6397-6112
DLC Predictions:

1. Lloyd Irving. He got a mii costume released alongside Chrom and K. Rool. The Tales Producer who's working on the game wants a Tales character in and Symphonia's director is also working on the game. Even though Nintendo is involved in character selection, Vesperia is coming on January to Switch so there's pronotion there. I don't see Heihachi because of his VAs death and I don't think they worked on voices for DLC 2-3 years earlier than the work on the character themselves. A few sources say Lloyd is in so hopefully that is true. This will only go up tenfold if Symphonia is ported to Switch or if the unknown Switch Tales game is related to Symphonia.

2. Banjo & Kazooie. Pretty much universally requested. I'd be surprised if he didn't make it in, in some shape especially the talks Phil Spencer had with Nintendo during speculation period.

3. Bandanna Dee. Hugely popular in Japan, and avoided the AT & Spirit Hell. Likliest 1st party character IMO.

4. Erdrick/Slime. Vergeben said a SE character is in. with the recent update on the DLC, I'm going with a DQ character, mainly Erdrick/Hero or Slime. Dragon Quest XI is being ported to Switch while KH3 isn't on Switch. Not to mention the hallmark DQ made for JRPGs.

5. Elma. She too has escaped AT and Spirit Hell and isn't in the same boat as Rex.

Season 2 Chance: 60%

Want: 100%

I think we'll get a another pass, unlike the Wii U, we're hardly near the end of the Switch's lifecycle so there's plenty of time for DLC to keep this game afloat for the entire gen. Not to mention the money that will be made from it.
 

Ze Diglett

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DLC Predictions:

1. Geno. I know I'm gonna get **** for this, but I'm willing to trust Verg that there will be a SE character as DLC, and when I consider all the possible options, Geno still seems like the most likely one, even considering yesterday's news. Hell, Nintendo picking the DLC even hurts folks like Sora way more than it hurts Geno (Nintendo would not go for a Disney character as their first choice, considering they pulled Mario from Wreck-It Ralph 2 just recently, are currently working with Disney's biggest theme-park rival for the construction of Super Nintendo World, and would sooner go to Illumination for the production of their Mario movie than Disney), and I largely see Dragon Quest as a no-go considering that the series' composer is a massive prick when it comes to licensing. At that point, Geno just seems like the most realistic option left, especially considering his likeness is already in the game as is, so he'd be by far the easiest Square Enix character to get in the game from a legal and logistical standpoint. I know people have been keen to give up on Geno wholesale recently, but we'll just wait and see.

2. Banjo & Kazooie. They're massively requested, and Nintendo and Microsoft have been notably friendly towards each other recently. Recent listings on Nintendo's website for the Banjo games also indicate some sort of rerelease on Nintendo hardware in the near future, so that helps their case a lot. They'll probably come with a Minecraft song or a Mii Costume to line up with Verg's claim about Minecraft content. I feel Nintendo knows how bad of an idea Steve would be by comparison; they're not as tone-deaf as we think they are.

3. Bandana Dee. Basically the only standout first-party option left at this point. Kirby's been hurting for playable representation since last game, and Bandana Dee's extremely popular, especially in Japan. He's made consistent appearances in the Kirby series since his soft debut in Superstar Ultra, so he's definitely got the portfolio to be considered "Smash material." Plus, Piranha Plant kind of killed the "Hat Goomba" argument in its tracks.

4. Rayman. To say Ubisoft and Nintendo have been friendly in recent years would be an understatement. They basically have a modern day SEGA-Nintendo relationship going on right now. Considering Nintendo are the ones calling the shots this time, I can see them rewarding their partnership with a Smash rep, and Rayman's the standout candidate on that front.

5. Lloyd Irving. With the theoretical Square Enix rep locked in, Bamco will be the only third-party company left with only one character (not counting any companies introduced via DLC, of course), which is strange to say the least considering they're the ones making the game. Between the two standouts of Heihachi and Lloyd, it's basically gonna be a coinflip, I reckon. I'm gonna go with Lloyd since he seems to be the more popular candidate and Tales is a pretty huge franchise in Japan, but Tekken's a pretty big series in its own right, so I could see it going either way, honestly.

Season 2 DLC: 20%. Yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up. It could happen, I guess, but with the way this wave of DLC is being presented, I have a feeling this is gonna be it. Just a hunch, really.
 

RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
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Center of the Zero Point
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SW-0818-9732-6979
My new DLC predictions:

Bandana Dee

Banjo-Kazooie

Rayman

Crash Bandicoot

FE Three houses protagonist (Edelgard?)
OR Gen 8 Pokemon (Melmetal?)
PROMOTIONAL MATERIAL

SEASON 2 FIGHTERS PASS
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%

Gonna copy-paste something I said from another thread of the same subject here.

I'd love a second fighters pass, but Sakurai needs a break. He might release a couple random DLC characters here and there outside of the fighters pass, but the chances of a second one as of now are pretty slim. Maybe a year or two after the first one is done. Hopefully they don't do the same as Fortnite by making the 1st pass limited time only before the second one comes out. It's not the same as their battle pass system.

Note: Be grateful that Sakurai overworked himself to create the ultimate fighting game with 74+ playable characters. If your most wanted character doesn't make it or gets disconfirmed, it's a whatever as long as you keep the above statement in mind. Once the first fighters pass is complete, let the man take a nice long break instead of forcing him to work on the season 2 fighters pass right away. He deserves it.
 
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Cetus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 5, 2018
Messages
190
DLC Expectations-(The first three cause Vergeben)
-Steve
-Geno
-Dragonquest Character
-Elma
-Uh... Lloyd Irving?

Season 2 (Electric Boogaloo)
We're seriously discussing a Season 2 now? Well... Ok then
Chance-40%
Want-100%
 

CaptainAmerica

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DLC Expectations

I think the news that Nintendo selected a list of character and gave Sakurai veto power is much different from Sakurai picking them himself. There will probably be a lot of promotional or 'thanks for supporting the Switch' stuff, and I'm expecting it to be heavily third party. They want to make the DLC sell, so picking a big name 3rd party that they'll have to license is still going to be more interesting to the general public than a third-rung first party character. I don't think there'll be an issue with getting the rights to any of the characters. After all, what company is going to say "no, I don't want my IP in Smash to get unprecedented levels of advertising..."

1. Square character. I'm expecting Sora to bring the most hype. I don't know if they'll go for another FF character, and Geno seems like an odd choice since he is not going to be very recognizable to the general public.

2. Steve from Minecraft. It's huge and there's been a lot of cooperation between Microsoft and Nintendo of late, particularly with regards to Minecraft. With as big as the game is, it seems almost inevitable.

3. Namco character. Heihachi seems the most likely with Tekken 7 as big as it is, but his Japanese VA died recently. Lloyd is a possibility, but the Tales series has been quiet for a while, and Soul Calibur 6 missed the Switch unfortunately, so Nightmare looks unlikely (unless they want to pull a surprise Switch port with Link returning as a guest...)

4. Bethesda character. They were in talks, and Doom Eternal's coming to the Switch, but let's face it - I know exactly which iconic Beth character I want, and it's not Doomguy.

5. I can really see them going big for the final DLC and putting Goku in. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to make this the game that broke that rule.

Who do I want?
1. Dovahkiin
2. Dovahkiin
3. Dovahkiin
4. Dovahkiin
5. Tails

Seriously, give me the Dragonborn, and I'll be okay with literally anyone else, even the anime meme characters.

Season 2

Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

I want more. More! MORE!!

If Nintendo wants to make money, this is how they can do it. They release more characters, we'll buy them. They make a low effort echo for DLC, we'll buy them. They port in a stage they missed, we'll buy it.

I'd love for more than 5+PP to be DLC. We had 7 total for Sm4sh, so 6 is going down from there. Sprinkle in some extra echoes as well (Tails please) and we'll be good.

Problem is, Sakurai's statement on this current DLC and his script in the direct made it sound more like he was unhappy about doing DLC in the first place. That's ok, just let someone else do the DLC. But he won't.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
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Still up Peach's dress.
DLC predictions:
  • Three Houses rep: An inevitability I'd imagine. Between the success of Fire Emblem Heroes being the big Nintendo Mobile game(beating even Mario and Animal Crossing, what a world), Fire Emblem getting a push for a Warriors style game and the success of Awakening and Fates, I imagine Fire Emblem is the new golden goose that Nintendo wants to keep rolling.

  • Toad/Captain Toad/Toadette: Yep, I said it.
    After years of hand waving from Smash fans, Toad's chances have never been better and I actually feel confident since Nintendo is making the call rather than Sakurai whom doomed one of Nintendo's most recognised faces to meatshield duty for three games.

    Ultimate so far has some good stuff going for Toad:
    Not a fighter? Utter bull**** as he's fought plenty but :ultisabelle: puts an end to that argument even if it wasn't. Even in Peach's moveset he's now shown being more proactive and battle ready.
    Generic species argument? :ultpiranha: Destroyed by the plant, although :ultinkling: already also did this as they're generic too but for some reason are discounted by the general Smash populace as being so?
    Already part of someone else's moveset? :ultchrom: Anything can change.
    Not an assist trophy and thus unlikely to get promoted this game: Check. Sorry but I still doubt Waluigi's chances of getting an AT promotion after three to five months in game.
    One of the most famous video game characters Nintendo owns not currently playable? Yup.
    Nintendo using Toad as the face of their new mobile service? Check.
    Is a Mario character and thus will be an easy sell: Check.
    Can promote an upcoming game? It's Toad. There's probably seven sports titles he's staring in being developed right now, or even a sequel to the Treasure Tracker title.
    Nintendo have promoted the hell out of Captain Toad Treasure Tracker having enough confidence to release it on Switch and 3DS and the guys behind Odyssey seemed to enjoy the character a lot too.
    Toadette meanwhile has New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe coming up and that whole thing with Bowsette kind of garnered the game interest, it wouldn't surprise me if Toadette and Peachette ended up making it in either.

    Really the only strike against him is the same as it is for any other Mario character; we got Piranha Plant and Daisy...will three Mario newcomers be too much? His only other rival is Paper Mario which could get in instead, but I'm going to side with Toad as...well that's my whole thing and he's used a lot more by Nintendo in general marketing and promotions.

  • Bandana Waddle Dee: The OTHER generic boy. Japan's most wanted and suspiciously missing in all of Smash forever. Kirby's garned a lot of traction the world over and Dee has been there during that period so him swooping in spear in hand wouldn't shock me. Again, the plant destroys any notion about generic species being worthless(even though Dee is an individual).

  • Meltan or Eevee: Like Mario, a Pokemon character is always an easy sell. I imagine Gamefreak will want to push Meltan, but I equally imagine Nintendo will want to promote Let's Go's Eevee too. Not sure if the latter will happen due to Eevee being a Pokeball(it'd be odd) but due to the nature of Pokemon being species there's no reason they couldn't have Eevee pull a double shift. Personally would prefer Team Rocket and Meowth but that seems pie in the sky even with them in Let's Go.

  • Rex: Xenoblade 2's DLC seems to be chugging along nicely, but it also seems like there's much more to go. Sakurai seemed apologetic that Rex missed the boat, so it probably wouldn't take much convincing to get him to be made into a character.
I could see Dixie possibly as an outlier instead of either Toad, Dee or the Pokemon, but I'm slightly less confident in her for some reason. Only slightly. If we get a wave 2 and I somehow guessed everyone right she'd be the only other I'd hazard at. I'd love another Zelda character(specifically Impa, Tingle or Vaati) but I have no clue who'd be added...maybe a champion? It's the best shot for a non triforce fighter at least.

I don't know why everyone's as confident in third parties as they are after the news, but I'm really not feeling especially confident in Nintendo pushing third parties unless they're exclusives.

Season 2? Chance: 45%
Sakurai seems done...but Nintendo loves money, so it could happen. I'm not massively confident in it however as I'm sure Sakurai will want to do something...anything...else after Smash is done.

Want: 100% obviously. The more characters the better.
 

RealPokeFan11

Smash Lord
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Center of the Zero Point
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5. I can really see them going big for the final DLC and putting Goku in. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to make this the game that broke that rule.
Uhhhh...
Uhhhhhhhh...
UHHHHHHHHHHH...!

WHAT!?
Goku is an anime character. Sakurai made this game as a celebration of video games as a whole. Adding Goku opens up a massive can of worms for characters from TV shows, movies, books, memes, and other forms of media. Soon after Goku, people will be expecting Shrek, and SpongeBob. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mickey Mouse and Logan Paul later on.
 
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CaptainAmerica

Smash Master
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Aug 21, 2014
Messages
3,089
Location
New York
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TomOfHyrule
Uhhhh...
Uhhhhhhhh...
UHHHHHHHHHHH...!

WHAT!?
Goku is an anime character. Sakurai made this game as a celebration of video games as a whole. Adding Goku opens up a massive fan of worms for characters from TV shows, movies, books, memes, and other forms of media. Soon after Goku, people will be expecting Shrek, and SpongeBob. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mickey Mouse and Logan Paul later on.
Yes, it's ridiculous. And yes, I would hate it.
I don't remember saying I wanted it...
Seriously, give me the Dragonborn, and I'll be okay with literally anyone else, even the anime meme characters.
I'm just saying that, after we got a literal potted plant, I don't think that any rules are off limits to Sakurai's crew. And if they wanted to break the internet, this would do it. Seriously, Geno's not going to get Smash and Nintendo talked about all over the internet as much as them actually putting Goku in. That's crazy. And that's why I can totally see it happening.

I remember when people laughed at Ridley fans since Sakurai said that he was too big in Sm4sh and would never happen. I remember that Villager would never be in Smash since that series didn't have anything to do with fighting. And yet, people seem to think that Sakurai's rules never ever break.

I've been talking with a guy at work about this. He's as casual as they come so he's not following any speculation, and he's been saying for months that the only way they can top 'everyone is here' is to break that last rule and go with Goku. It does make sense. I'd prefer to keep anime memes out of my Smash bros, but I can't deny how major of an announcement that would be.
 
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VexTheHex

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
567
DLC Characters Speculation

Big 3rd parties or upcoming games are the biggest factors obviously. Our first couple could relate to fan favorites that didn't quite make it like Bandana Dee or Geno. But I think the later ones will be promo for Fire Emblem, Pokemon Gen 8, or Metroid. Shocked nobody has brought up Sylux. Nintendo making the pool of selections may help out 1st parties overall, otherwise it probably was going to be mostly 3rd parties like in 4.



Season 2?

Not sure. Sakurai may want it to end for a bit now. I wouldn't get my hopes up though, but I certainly wouldn't deny the possibility.
 

aarchak

Smash Ace
Joined
Jul 29, 2018
Messages
501
Location
The blast zone
DLC predictions:

Elma.
She survived the slaughter, and I'd pick her over Rex because why would Sakurai say that he wishes he could put Rex in if he was going to anyways? A Xenoblade rep seems likely now, and Elma's my current pick.
Bandanna Waddle Dee.
Popular in Japan, a Kirby character, and survived the slaughter. I'd pick him in Sakurai's position.
Lloyd Irving.
He'll be the third Bamco rep. He got a mii costume in Smash 4, and Tales of Vesperia is coming to the Switch, so there's recent representation. With Heihachi's VA dead, he seems quite unlikely, and Tekken 7 isn't on the Switch, so I doubt he'll be getting in, and Heihachi is Lloyd's biggest competitor. However, you could substitute this with Yuri fron Vesperia, since his game IS coming to the Switch, but he seems less likely than Lloyd.
A Square Enix rep (not Geno).
Forgetting Vergeben, this seems likely due to the ties between the 2 companies.
I actually don't know who might be our 5th character, honestly anyone from Travis Touchdown to Edelgard could work here.

Season 2?
Probably. I don't see why he wouldn't, but probably after a break (please give this man a break).
 

FancySmash

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The elegant battlefield.
Ah, we're talking our expectations for DLC huh, well, I'm going with Season 2 first.

Chance: 20%
Not getting my hopes up on this one. The direct seemed pretty forward when it said 5 DLC characters. It didn't use the phrase Season 1, or first wave, it just said the DLC. Now, if this DLC does well (which... is another thing altogether), I could see Nintendo pushing for another round, but again, DLC this time needs to sell. And well... with Nintendo in charge, I don't know what direction this DLC will take.
Want: 100%
Of course I want more DLC, especially if this round doesn't end up wowing us like we hope it does. Of course, it'd be nice for Sakurai to work on something else like he wants, so maybe for wave two he gives it to someone he trusts?

As for DLC predictions
  • Square Rep (leaning on Dragon Quest) - It could be anyone from a DQ character, Geno, or Sora, but I personally think Dragon Quest has the highest chance. Sora... I don't see happening at all. Kingdom Hearts 3 won't be on the Switch from what I gather, and Disney also has to give the OK, not just SE. Geno has better odds than Sora, but with Nintendo at the helm... I don't know how good his chances are. A lot of Geno's chances hinged on Sakurai wanting him personally. With Nintendo picking the characters... I feel hurts him, not to mention Geno's absence in both Fortune Street and Mario Sports Mix. Dragon Quest is a series I see Nintendo pulling for corporate relations.
  • Steve - Leaks have largely hinted at Minecraft DLC. I've made my peace with it, to the point of being neutral on it. I will admit that Minecraft is doing rather well on Switch, and... sorry. I see him more likely than Banjo & Kazooie. Minecraft would have something to advertise, while Banjo hasn't seen any action in a while. I'd prefer Banjo though.
  • FE 3 Houses rep - At first, with Rex deconfirmed, I didn't think this would happen. Now I hear Nintendo is choosing DLC and letting Sakurai pick from their choices. Yeah, this just shot way up. I'm not to fond of this idea, because I hate thinking that a character we know little about being thrown in just to advertise. It'd be Corrin all over again, but not just for FE this time...
  • Pokemon Gen 8 - Yeah, I think this is happening too, and for the same reason as the FE 3 Houses rep. But Pokemon does have 10 fighters as is. That's about 14% of the unique characters on the roster, and since Pichu isn't an echo, all of them are unique, which... is actually more than FE.
  • Maybe a First Party - IDK who this could be. My gut wants to say Bandana Dee, but it'd have to be someone who advertises a recent game. Elma and Dee, while both are somehow missing in any shape or form so far, I don't think they'll be seen as "new game sellers."
As for wants
  • Bandana Dee
  • Rayman
  • Banjo Kazooie
  • SE Rep (Not gonna pick since none really matter to me, I just know a lot of people are excited for whichever one it may be)
  • Another First Party (Elma, Captain Toad, Dixie, I'd be fine with any of them... so long as Dee is in)
 

Xigger

Smash Lord
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
1,117
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California
DLC Expectations:
  1. Minecraft Steve - Minecraft is one of the best-selling games of all-time, and I don't think Smash would be complete without that representation. Sakurai made a lot of haters love Mega-Man, Pac-Man, and Sonic, so I doubt Sakurai couldn't make the most square character work.
  2. Geno/Slime - Hard to imagine Square Enix would only get one fighter rep. Highly requested/popular fighters.
  3. Tales rep - Namco doesn't have as many reps as other third-parties, and I personally think they would opt for a Tales character rather than Tekken. Tales seems to fit in with Smash much better. I would assume Yuri or a newer rep, because Lloyd Irving isn't as popular in Japan.
  4. Bandana Dee - A lot of people underestimate the Kirby series, but it's one of the best-selling Nintendo franchises, so I think this would be a no-brainer.
  5. Something no one expects - Whether it's a fighter that hasn't been in a game, or one that's very unexpected, I think this is a very safe bet.

Season 2 expect & want: 0%.

I'd rather them do a season 2 of DLC or additional fighters for a Smash port for the next console.
 

Kotor

Luminary Uppercut!
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Messages
2,793
Shocked nobody has brought up Sylux.
Because all he has to his name is an assumption he would be the main antagonist of Prime 4. We know nothing about Prime 4 since it was announced, let alone whether Sylux would even have a role.
 

SmasherMaster

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First with DLC Season 2
Chance: 49%
I think it depends on how successful the first batch of DLC is, and with Ultimate coming early in the Switch's lifetime, I could even see them doing another wave of DLC a couple of years later.
Want: 50%
Yes please.

My Predictions
1) Bandana Dee
-As one of the only remaining ballot choices that wasn't shown off as an Assist Trophy, A Mii Costume or even a Spirit, he seems like if there is any long(ish) running Nintendo character being in Ultimate as DLC, it would be Bandana Dee.
2) Elma
-The lack of Xenoblade X content in the game is something I find odd. And with Rex being a costume in the DLC pack, it feels like she is the most likely choice for a Xenoblade newcomer.
3) Steve OR Banjo
-With the way Nintendo and Microsoft have been lately, I feel like it has to be one of these two, if not both. Steve is from a revolutionary game that Sakurai has praised, while Banjo is a highly requested character from Nintendo fans and is from one of the most beloved Nintendo 64 games.
4) Square Enix character (Sora, Slime or Geno seem like the biggest ones)
-Even ignoring the elephant named Vergeben in the room, it would make sense for them. Square Enix loves their crossovers, and each of the three bigger choices each have things going for them.
5) Another 3rd party
-Whether Lloyd Irving, Sans, Rayman, Travis Touchdown or any other of the many many third party characters, I feel like there are a lot of companies or game creators that would love to have their characters make an appearance in Smash Bros as a guest fighter.

Honerable Mentions go to
-Decidueye (Gen 7 is dead, but I find it odd that we haven't seen Decidueye appear as a spirit yet.)
-Edgelard (Nintendo loves pushing Fire Emblem with Smash newcomers.)
-Some Arms character (The poster boy of the game has been Assist Trophied, but I feel like it is still possible)
 
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ProfPeanut

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
727
TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom , you're not going to start this until after Ultimate comes out, right? There's a lot we still don't understand about Spirits, especially regarding what the full list looks like and what that might mean for how much attention certain franchises got. Either way, we'll probably have a lot, lot more days than candidates if you start the DLC edition as early as this month.

CaptainAmerica CaptainAmerica Seems to me Piranha Plant did the trick just fine. And there's nothing to say that it'll be the last of that.


DLC Predictions
Just throw the book out. Nintendo's calling the shots this time around. And the problem's less that there's corporate interests involved in the selection, and more that Nintendo is a nebulous entity that we don't know how to predict.

Who in that big headquarters in Kyoto is judging the list that they give to Sakurai? Did they get all their shareholders together and create their list based on democratic vote? Or was Nintendo EPD involved, allowed to have a say since they were developing the titles that'd take advantage of such promotions? Were they planning their five choices throughout the development of Ultimate, or did they just come up with them the week prior to Sakurai's tweet?

We don't know what Nintendo themselves would do with this kind of choice. Mario spin-off games are both outsourced and limited to the Mario universe, so they're not really any help in this regard. Assuming that there'll be a Minecraft rep doesn't help either, since Minecraft makes sense as a choice under most contexts.

Our only relatively solid clue is the rumor that a Square Enix character is forthcoming - and that's not something that's really compatible with the idea of a Nintendo fully prioritizing corporate interests. Nintendo and Square Enix don't collaborate to the same degree that Ubisoft, Sega, or Namco do, and plenty of notable Square Enix candidates (2B, Sora, Noctis*) are only playable on competing consoles, with no Switch port in sight. Why would Nintendo want to promote a Square Enix character that can only really be played on another console, when they could be selecting their own IPs instead?
*Yes, we have the Pocket Editon of FFXV. That wouldn't exactly justify Nintendo picking Noctis for Smash.

Heck, why would Nintendo pick third-parties at all, besides Minecraft? Ultimate's going to sell a ton of copies already. No need for them to pick up another Cloud, is there?

The only way to have any real clue as to how this'll go is to see what Nintendo wants to do with this choice, which is limited to simply waiting and seeing who DLC Fighter #1 is. Saying that Nintendo has kept track of everyone's wishlisting just like Sakurai feels like watching the Grinch hoax at work again - would they really particularly care, when so many people will buy the DLC anyway just to complete their rosters? Saying that Nintendo would pick all third-party choices is also a bold claim - who would be worth the trouble of negotiating with, when they could forego both the time and the lost cut of the profits by simply using their own characters?

1. Minecrafter (A good possibility in most contexts.)
2. Bandana Waddle Dee (One of the few, if not only, wishlisted candidates not yet deconfirmed. HAL could possibly make a push to get post-Sakurai era Kirby into Smash.)
3. Slime/DQ rep (Sora's the big hype pick, but who knows if Nintendo themselves wants to deal with Disney? Dragon Quest has its own issues too, but the Switch is still getting DQ11.)
4. ???
5. ???
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
For DLC, my best guess is that the following are the 5 characters

1. sora
2. Edelgard
3. Bandana Dee
4. Banjo and Kazooie
5. Gen 8 Pokemon

The news about Nintendo picking the DLC makes me lean sora over Geno, and also makes me think they'll want a Gen 8 Pokemon and a rep from the new Fire Emblem games for promotional purposes. Bandana Dee seemingly was one of the few who survived the onslaught of the last direct so I think he's in, and then Banjo comes with either a Minecraft stage or music.

Right now I'm leaning towards no season 2, but that really depends on how well season 1 sells, how long sakurai wants to take a break for, etc. Could see it happening for sure but I'm gonna play it safe for now and say no.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Season 2:

Chance: 1% - Being completely blunt here, no, I really don't think it's going to happen. Sakurai will get his long deserved break after the current DLC wave is released, and they're not going to continue without him.

Want: 100% - Duh. Hopefully a Season 2 would give new hope to the characters which suffered a cruel fate in the base game.

DLC Predictions:

1. Square Enix Rep (Geno/Slime/Sora) - Been rumored for so long now, we know it's happening, and probably as the first DLC too. Who it'll be is the only question, but probably one of the three I listed.

2. Bandana Dee - Really just a case of everything falling his way in the base game, plus Nintendo has good reason to want him in as he can both promote new games aswell as being extremely popular in Japan. By far the most likely first party character imo.

3. Steve - This is the only way Vergeben's Minecraft content claim makes sense, ATs aren't DLC, and a Minecraft stage wouldn't make sense for Banjo or Master Chief, so the logical conclusion is that any Minecraft content will be followed by a Minecraft character. Music? I doubt that's noteworthy enough for someone to risk their job by leaking it.

4. Edelgard - Nintendo are not going to be laying out the options to Sakurai without at least pushing for one purely promotional character, and when it comes to Fire Emblem Sakurai himself doesn't hold back either.

5. Lloyd Irving - Another Namco rep, quite popular, unique playstyle, he's got a decent chance. To be honest I'm not as confident in this last spot as I am in the other picks, this could very well be anything else, but I'm picking Lloyd for now.
 
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PeridotGX

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Season 2

Chance: 35%. It could happen, but I don't know. Sakurai wants/needs a break.

Want: 100%. More characters, why not? Plus, it would let too recent characters like Rex or Edlegard be playable.

Anyways, here's who I think is happening. Reasonings are later.

Bandana Dee
Tails/Rayman/Crash
Square Enix (Geno/DQ/Sora)
Microsoft(Steve/BK)
Elma
 
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