Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[CannonStreak]

It shows that there is a working relationship between the two. Just like how Microsoft and Nintendo had a friendly relationship prior to Banjo being revealed for Smash, which was previously seen as another impossibility as Microsoft was a direct competitor as another console manufacturer.

Oh, I don't think Disney and Nintendo's relationship is anything like Nintendo and Microsoft's. That said, while Microsoft is not just a video game company, it still does video games, and they have done more video game stuff with Nintendo that ended up warranting a character from Rare, now owned by Microsoft, to be in Smash; more so than Disney doing smaller things like making a design for the Switch, plus, like I said, there may be different people involved in this, and it is not just Disney, but Square, too. Plus, Rare used to work with Nintendo in terms of both handheld and console games before they were bought out by Microsoft, and Sora with Disney is a different case, not that easy.

Look, I don't mind Sora getting in as much as the next guy, and in fact, I wouldn't say his inclusion is impossible, but there is more to what could make it hard than you may be seeing here. It is not going to be that easy, especially since a Disney Switch design has its differences in terms of circumstances from getting a character, or characters aside from Sora and some others that are non video game characters for that matter, into Smash. It is not as simple as you think.

Now, why not drop this and let others continue to rate the characters?

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

They just made a Disney Tsum Tsum Switch and Ultimate Marvel Alliance 3 just came exclusively to Switch.

Nintendo and Disney have worked together plenty.

ok.. that switch is ****ing adorable

 

[P47]

Geno

Chance: 55%
One of the most requested Smash characters ever, has received postive words from Sakurai himself, and his Mii costume in Smash 4 was given pretty special treatment in the Direct. He's coming for real this time, I can feel it.

Want: 100%
Him and Ridley are/were my 2 longtime wants and right now he's probably my 3rd most wanted character. Little P47 fell in love with his design and specials and that love has held strong to this day.

Sora

Chance: 40%
Highly requested, from a massive franchise, has Nintendo history (if that matters) and Sakurai is both a fan of KH and pretty chummy with Nomura. I don't think Disney would have any issues with the inclusion and Sora wouldn't have to come with anything Disney related (though it'd be weird seeing KH without Disney, though not as much as seeing Disney in Smash lol).

Want: Abstain
I wouldn't mind at all but idk if I can assign a number to it

For the record I don't think there's anything stopping both characters from being in the pass. Hell, they could both be revealed at E3

Nominations:

• Magolor x3
• 3 Mage Sisters x2

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Geno

Chance - 50%

Geno's in a consistently weird place when you start to analyze him and his chances for getting in. On one hand, he is one of the most revered candidates for the "core Smash community" that would instantly get tons of love from that community and work as an underdog story that Sakurai himself wanted to make happen. On the other hand, the issues with Geno as a one-off have been well documented and Square Enix is second only to Capcom in having one of the most stacked benches in regards to who they could pick for another Square Enix character. That's not to say I downright believe you can't have multiple Square Enix characters in the DLC or that Geno competes for the same spot as a fan favorite as most of them, but we've also seen him passed over twice for bigger franchises that bring more to Smash as a crossover now. At this point, I'm not really sure if he can overcome that issue when literally all he has going for him is fan demand... and let's face it, the fans want a lot of characters, and several of them are considerably more viable options that do more for Smash as a crossover or promote franchises that Nintendo is interested in continuing. The fact he's even in the conversation at all is somewhat absurd though, and thus continues to make him somewhat of a wild card pick that could surprise fans at any moment. As I said, Sakurai has wanted him in the past and acknowledges his popularity, so that's a really solid piece to consider when considering his chances. And now that we're moving on to Volume 2, it's going to probably contain another big fan favorite like Banjo & Kazooie was, and I think Geno makes a lot of sense to be on the short list for such a position in the next pass. Thus, he's just an all around toss-up for me.

Want - 90%

I'm still a Geno supporter at the end of the day who wants to see him happen. I love Super Mario RPG probably more than I love Geno himself, so there's a certain practicality angle to getting that content into Smash by supporting Geno I'll admit. The music alone is what I need to have happen by the end of Smash Ultimate because it is absolutely great stuff. That said, I'm also genuinely a fan of Geno as a character in Super Mario RPG and I do think that he would be able to be a more glass cannon version of Mii Gunner that has more interesting and curated specialized attacks that reflect his moves from the game and would probably either come with a timed hit mechanic and/or some of the sound effects from the original game, which would be nostalgic as hell for me. I've come more around to Mii Gunner in recent times though, so I'm maybe a little more willing to take an upgraded Mii Costume if he goes that route than some Geno fans, but I still would enjoy seeing Geno happen in Smash.

Sora

Chance - 35%

Disney is going to be the really big question here, and I don't have any answers for that question. Disney has been plenty reasonable in some areas when it comes to their video game properties and has a really great relationship with Nintendo at the end of the day with how we've seen stuff like MUA3, Disney Tusm Tsum themed Switch's, and even had a character like Oswald specifically come back in an exclusive title for the Wii back in the day. The groundwork is there for that relationship to be utilized to make Sora in Smash happen. It's just a question of "Can Sakurai and Disney come to an agreement?" We don't really know how protective they are of Sora and Kingdom Hearts as an IP besides some slight limited time offers with World of Final Fantasy, we don't know if Sakurai views Disney as insurmountable for a negotiation to get Sora, and we don't know if maybe there are other factors in the overall portrayal of Sora that would cause issues. To be clear, Sora without Disney works absolutely fine and if we can have a Cloud in Smash without Tifa and Barrett that works fine, we can have a Sora without Donald and Goofy that works fine... BUT I do wonder if Disney might potentially be the ones to mess that up by pushing too hard for those characters to be included when Sakurai is more than likely opposed to the idea.

There are just far too many unknowns for me to make much of a definitive call in his favor. We've seen how far Sakurai and Nintendo can go by making Dragon Quest happen despite being a huge and tightly kept franchise spread across several companies, and Sora feels like the natural progression of that in some ways... but Disney is still a question mark in regards to how things end up. I will say, that if there is even the slightest chance that Sora can happen, I think Sakurai would take it because, let's face it, Sora is one of the most requested fighters for Smash that would also be an absolute megaton type announcement that would make people extremely happy both in and outside of Smash.

Want - 100%

I've only played some of the original Kingdom Hearts, and I liked what I played well enough! But I want Sora for the excitement and happiness he brings to the fan base and for the huge crossover moment he brings. I've seen so much enthusiasm for Kingdom Hearts over the years that I can't help but grin at the thought of those fans getting their moment in Smash. Few characters could do what Sora in Smash could do for this community I feel, and from everything I've seen regarding potential move sets, I do think he'd be an absolute blast to play and come with some really great music and potentially a really cool stage. He just seems like such an excellent and perfect addition that I will fully support him in Smash and want him to happen.

 

[TriggerX]

You mean those Game and Watch games? If so, those were from a long time ago. Things are different now, and those games were made before Smash Bros, and by extension, Sakurai's rules ever existed. Nintendo probably made those games, not Disney themselves, which is probably why they are even listed there. Just because they are mentioned does not make it easier for them to get into a Smash game, especially now.

Lol this topic really is just going on in circles.

You keep mentioning rules as if he’s breaking some unwritten rule. The main issue here is that you think he’s something other than a video game character. However your logic is flawed, cuz at that point you would have to consider iron man a western cartoon character(comic book), or Star Wars a western cartoon character, etc. Disney can’t help itself, it likes to eat and over time it will venture on to other platforms and projects that aren’t necessarily in the realm of what it’s known for.

Same logic would suggest Scorpion and Sub Zero are movie characters since their owned by a renowned movie studio? Basically you’re implying that Disney can’t create video game characters?

Overall and only facts:

- The character was designed specifically for a video game series by a well known video game development company

- Has only made appearances in Video games.

-Owned by Disney, yet it’s on record saying that he is only really used with Nomuras permission.

- Also I hate to use a “rumour” as evidence, but if you believe in that Square Enix character list that was being thrown around in the newcomer and Geno thread, he was one of the 7. If that list was even real, I find it hard to believe a non video game character would go on the list.(half fact I guess?)

- As mushroom pointed out, previous smash games have mentioned Disney characters by name. So it’s unlikely a pendant/charm on a weapon is a big deal to Nintendo.


If he were Iron Man or mickey, I’d be inclined to agree with you. (no offense to anyone who wants these characters. ) However all evidence points to him being a Video game character.

Regardless of Disney’s ownership and Affiliation with Sora, his chances right now in my eyes are up there with pretty much any random third party character at this point.

You make the deal seem so hard, but it’s not. Nintendo already has a line of communication for Disney due to all the joint ventures they have collaborated on. Really there just needs to be a want for him by Nintendo.

In the end though Nintendo may not even care for Sora or Disney might want too much money or Sakurai couldn’t translate him well enough into smash.

But unfortunately that’s true for any character, Geno included.

 

[Sid-cada]

Geno

Chance - 10% - I feel like it mostly comes down to how much Sakurai really wants Geno. If he really wants him, he will go over any hoops to get him in. The thing is, outside of a single statement of "I want him in" we have little to go on. We got a costume last game that is still MIA, but there are still a number of other costumes like the Rathalos costume set. We can't say for certain why; after all, we still don't have the old Chocobo costume as well. How Square-enix will respond to this will be difficult to determine, but I definitely think it's on Sakurai to approach first. His fame in Smash is the sole reason for inclusion, which gets his foot in the door at least. After that is a huge question mark to me, leaning towards pessimism.

Want - 40% - I recognize that he is a major request, but both in terms of third parties and Mario characters there are better. I have never played the game, and given how I don't find most RPGs interesting I have no incentive to do so. While he might be able to win me over with a cool enough moveset, I don't really care about him right now to want him over characters I actually want.


Sora

Chance - 35% - Let's ask a question to demonstrate a point.

Let's say that for a moment, it is announced that Kingdom Hearts next game will feature no Disney content whatsoever. What do you think the reaction will be? Some might say that's not possible. Others might say that's okay, but are disappointed. To others, it might be worse than Pokemon's Dexit. Others are totally fine with the situation and not care.

The problem is that Disney is a major reason why many people go into the series in the first place. While there might be possible to represent the series without Disney, to many Disney is the heart of the series. Given how perfectionistic Sakurai can be and his own perception of the series, Sakurai may believe that Kingdom Hearts cannot be properly represented without Disney content, which might be a deathblow.

Given how popular the series is, he may be convinced that it might be worth it, but that's a big enough unknown that it hurts him badly to me.

Want - 45% - Don't care about the series, like most RPGs. I guess he could be fun, though I'm not familiar enough to say. However, if he were to end up with some Disney Content with Sora, that would be a nightmare that I want no part of.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sora

60% Chance

yeah, I am reasonably confident.

Sora to me is a stars aligning character. Honestly a lot of his case is pretty solid. KH is a big franchise, that much is hard to argue. KH3, love it or not, was a big game, one of the biggest of 2019. There is a lot of wind in Sora’s sails as a result. Despite technically being a swordsman, Kingdom Hearts offers more than enough moveset potential.

I do not wanna delve too much into the Disney debate going on, but he does not really break any rules. The Disney representation imo would be spirits of Mickey , Donald, and Goofy, their appearance on Sora’s dive into the heart, and the kingdom keys keychain. The representation can be small and still relatively faithful.

Travis x 5

day will end tomorrow

 

[CannonStreak]

Lol this topic really is just going on in circles.

You keep mentioning rules as if he’s breaking some unwritten rule. The main issue here is that you think he’s something other than a video game character. However your logic is flawed, cuz at that point you would have to consider iron man a western cartoon character(comic book), or Star Wars a western cartoon character, etc. Disney can’t help itself, it likes to eat and over time it will venture on to other platforms and projects that aren’t necessarily in the realm of what it’s known for.

Same logic would suggest Scorpion and Sub Zero are movie characters since their owned by a renowned movie studio? Basically you’re implying that Disney can’t create video game characters?

Overall and only facts:

- The character was designed specifically for a video game series by a well known video game development company

- Has only made appearances in Video games.

-Owned by Disney, yet it’s on record saying that he is only really used with Nomuras permission.

- Also I hate to use a “rumour” as evidence, but if you believe in that Square Enix character list that was being thrown around in the newcomer and Geno thread, he was one of the 7. If that list was even real, I find it hard to believe a non video game character would go on the list.(half fact I guess?)

- As mushroom pointed out, previous smash games have mentioned Disney characters by name. So it’s unlikely a pendant/charm on a weapon is a big deal to Nintendo.


If he were Iron Man or mickey, I’d be inclined to agree with you. (no offense to anyone who wants these characters. ) However all evidence points to him being a Video game character.

Regardless of Disney’s ownership and Affiliation with Sora, his chances right now in my eyes are up there with pretty much any random third party character at this point.

You make the deal seem so hard, but it’s not. Nintendo already has a line of communication for Disney due to all the joint ventures they have collaborated on. Really there just needs to be a want for him by Nintendo.

In the end though Nintendo may not even care for Sora or Disney might want too much money or Sakurai couldn’t translate him well enough into smash.

But unfortunately that’s true for any character, Geno included.

You seem to be missing the point. Like I said, there are rules, and Sakurai specifically said that only content from video games can get in Smash Bros.

https://smashboards.com/threads/sak...mate-will-only-include-gaming-content.489334/

You can't ignore this. With that, adding Sora, especially if they were to add Disney characters that did not debut in a video game, adding those characters could be a problem if they decided to go that route. Plus, the logic I provided does not necessarily have to apply to other characters like Mortal Kombat characters, as those characters were from a video game company long before a non video game company brought them out, and they did not have non video game characters in them. What I was saying was more specific to Disney characters than Mortal Kombat ones. I already said why the Mickey Mouse and Donald was from a time that was different from Nintendo and Smash Bros. and yet you seem to keep ignoring that point, along with the point as to why the Disney design for the Switch is not necessarily a favor for Sora since it has nothing to do with Kingdom Hearts itself, aside from the Disney characters that were on both the design and Kingdom Hearts. As for Star Wars and Iron Man, I was specifically talking about the characters that appeared in Kingdom Hearts, not to mention, Disney mainly started as more of a cartoon company (possibly with some live action films) if anything, and did not have the likes of Marvel and Star Wars in its possession by then. As for Geno, Sakurai seems to want him more, as he never said he wanted a Kingdom Hearts character in the game, and at least he is owned fully by a video game character.

Even with the line of communication Nintendo has with Disney, there are circumstances that make it so that getting Sora in would not be that easy. Different people possibly, too. Plus, it would possibly conflict with the rule I mentioned and Smash Bros. being a celebration of gaming. Sora may be a video game character, but the series he is from is not entirely full of video game original stuff. You have to keep that in mind. Not to mention, again Sora is owned by Disney, not Square Enix.

I am not saying Sora can't be a part of Kingdom Hearts, but it isn't quite simple as you may think.

Now, let the others rate the characters here. The day for rating these two characters is about to end anyway. If you want to continue this conversation, please send a DM to me. Otherwise, it is time to stop with this.

 

[Opossum]

You seem to be missing the point. Like I said, there are rules, and Sakurai specifically said that only content from video games can get in Smash Bros.

https://smashboards.com/threads/sak...mate-will-only-include-gaming-content.489334/

You can't ignore this. With that, adding Sora, especially if they were to add Disney characters that did not debut in a video game, adding those characters could be a problem if they decided to go that route. Plus, the logic I provided does not necessarily have to apply to other characters like Mortal Kombat characters, as those characters were from a video game company long before a non video game company brought them out, and they did not have non video game characters in them. What I was saying was more specific to Disney characters than Mortal Kombat ones. I already said why the Mickey Mouse and Donald was from a time that was different from Nintendo and Smash Bros. and yet you seem to keep ignoring that point, along with the point as to why the Disney design for the Switch is not necessarily a favor for Sora since it has nothing to do with Kingdom Hearts itself, aside from the Disney characters that were on both the design and Kingdom Hearts. As for Star Wars and Iron Man, I was specifically talking about the characters that appeared in Kingdom Hearts, not to mention, Disney mainly started as more of a cartoon company (possibly with some live action films) if anything, and did not have the likes of Marvel and Star Wars in its possession by then. As for Geno, Sakurai seems to want him more, as he never said he wanted a Kingdom Hearts character in the game, and at least he is owned fully by a video game character.

Even with the line of communication Nintendo has with Disney, there are circumstances that make it so that getting Sora in would not be that easy. Different people possibly, too. Plus, it would possibly conflict with the rule I mentioned and Smash Bros. being a celebration of gaming. Sora may be a video game character, but the series he is from is not entirely full of video game original stuff. You have to keep that in mind. Not to mention, again Sora is owned by Disney, not Square Enix.

I am not saying Sora can't be a part of Kingdom Hearts, but it isn't quite simple as you may think.

Now, let the others rate the characters here. The day for rating these two characters is about to end anyway. If you want to continue this conversation, please send a DM to me. Otherwise, it is time to stop with this.

You don't get to say "drop this conversation" while continuing to argue in the same post and refusing to address the points being made.

 

[CannonStreak]

You don't get to say "drop this conversation" while continuing to argue in the same post and refusing to address the points being made.

I'll do what I wish, thank you. If you do not have anything constructive to say, please don't butt in. There was no need to, anyway.

 

[Perkilator]

I'll do what I wish, thank you. If you do not have anything constructive to say, please don't butt in. There was no need to, anyway.

Tough talk from the guy who said to stop arguing a point and then continued to argue theirs.

 

[CannonStreak]

Tough talk from the guy who said to stop arguing a point and then continued to argue theirs.

And I said the stop thing after I argued. In that post anyway. And I did not truly say stop. I said he and I could continue through DMs if he wished. That is different.

Look, I don't want any trouble, so just let it go, okay?

 

[TheCJBrine]

While I want Geno, I really don’t see how it would be so hard for them to get Sora aside from maybe Disney being a bit power/money-hungry even after what they said about Sora and Nomura. They do seem to have a nice relationship with Nintendo, however, having some exclusives on the Switch including that Marvel game and a Tsum Tsum game (wasn’t just a Switch design), and there are KH games on Nintendo systems, so they probably wouldn’t be all that money-hungry over Sora in Smash, especially when they seem to be at least somewhat easy to work with considering the Mash-up packs they have in Minecraft. The non-videogame characters and stuff shouldn’t matter, as there seems to be enough characters and content where they wouldn’t need to mention or include any of the Disney characters. Donald and Goody do seem close to him, but I haven’t played KH so I wouldn’t know how much time they actually spend fighting with you; besides, Sora has other friends he fights with, anyway, I think.

 

[Hinata]

I'll do what I wish, thank you. If you do not have anything constructive to say, please don't butt in. There was no need to, anyway.

It's not really "butting in" when you're on a public forum and everything you say is broadcasted to everyone reading like you're shouting into a loudspeaker.

 

[CannonStreak]

While I want Geno, I really don’t see how it would be so hard for them to get Sora aside from maybe Disney being a bit power/money-hungry even after what they said about Sora and Nomura. They do seem to have a nice relationship with Nintendo, however, having some exclusives on the Switch including that Marvel game and a Tsum Tsum game (wasn’t just a Switch design), and there are KH games on Nintendo systems, so they probably wouldn’t be all that money-hungry over Sora in Smash, especially when they seem to be at least somewhat easy to work with considering the Mash-up packs they have in Minecraft. The non-videogame characters and stuff shouldn’t matter, as there seems to be enough characters and content where they wouldn’t need to mention or include any of the Disney characters. Donald and Goody do seem close to him, but I haven’t played KH so I wouldn’t know how much time they actually spend fighting with you; besides, Sora has other friends he fights with, anyway, I think.

To be fair (after all I have said), despite all I have said, I shall admit, especially the bolded part is highly reasonable, and CAN happen. Though I am not going to start arguing with you here, I must say, I do wonder how that would feel to the majority of people. Not saying it shouldn't be done, and there ARE plenty of original characters in Kingdom Hearts, but I do wonder if many would agree if it is the same without the non video game characters?

Oh well, never mind that. Like I said, I have no problem with Sora getting in, so whatever does work, works I believe.

It's not really "butting in" when you're on a public forum and everything you say is broadcasted to everyone reading like you're shouting into a loudspeaker.

Will. You. All. Let. This. Go. Already? While the latter part may have been true, he wasn't talking with me and the other guy, so as public as it was, there was really no need for him to say that, anyway.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Donald and Goody do seem close to him, but I haven’t played KH so I wouldn’t know how much time they actually spend fighting with you; besides, Sora has other friends he fights with, anyway, I think.

Donald and Goofy are really only full party members in the numbered entries (and they spend most of the combat knocked out because you don’t directly control them). In all the other games, including pretty much all the ones on Nintendo consoles, they really only appear in cutscenes/as summons. As I showed in the Spirit Board earlier, there are plenty of original characters they could feature instead.

 

[Ninjaed]

While I don't agree with quite a few things SonicSmasher1 said, I'm of the mind not to let ourselves get hot under the collar. Different opinions and all that. Still, you said to stop the argument so be the better man/woman/attack helicopter and resist the urge to reply. People didn't agree with you despite reading your points... it can be frustrating but live with it. At least they earnestly listened and discussed. Besides, changing someone's mind hardly happens on the spur of the moment, we usually need time to ponder with a cool head. When both sides raise valid points, it's not easy for either to admit being (at least partly) wrong.

 

[Malo Mart]

While I don't agree with quite a few things SonicSmasher1 said, I'm of the mind not to let ourselves get hot under the collar. Different opinions and all that. Still, you said to stop the argument so be the better man/woman/attack helicopter and resist the urge to reply. People didn't agree with you despite reading your points... it can be frustrating but live with it. At least they earnestly listened and discussed. Besides, changing someone's mind hardly happens on the spur of the moment, we usually need time to ponder with a cool head. When both sides raise valid points, it's not easy for either to admit being (at least partly) wrong.

Well said. If you're starting to get bothered by an argument, it's best to just leave it at that and maybe think about it more later. That's when each side's viewpoints may actually consider what the other is saying more fairly, and maybe even be persuaded. For example, I've since taken back what I argued earlier about KH having little presence on Nintendo after thinking on my own a bit more

 

[Ninjaed]

Since we're on the topic of characters being chosen and all, I've come across this tweet. It quotes a site that relates Sakurai acknowledging in a Famitsu article that there are too many Fire Emblem characters indeed. But that he doesn't have much power about it. He was asked to put Byleth in, so he did.

I wanted to share that since too often I've seen arguments that "Sakurai wants this character" or the like when this makes it clear that he doesn't hold this sort of power at all. For instance, maybe Sakurai likes 2B but that doesn't mean much. He's not calling the shots, at least not anymore (makes me wonder who else was on the list for him not to veto Byleth, or if Nintendo forced his hand there).

 

[I.D.]

Since we're on the topic of characters being chosen and all, I've come across this tweet. It quotes a site that relates Sakurai acknowledging in a Famitsu article that there are too many Fire Emblem characters indeed. But that he doesn't have much power about it. He was asked to put Byleth in, so he did.

I wanted to share that since too often I've seen arguments that "Sakurai wants this character" or the like when this makes it clear that he doesn't hold this sort of power at all. For instance, maybe Sakurai likes 2B but that doesn't mean much. He's not calling the shots, at least not anymore (makes me wonder who else was on the list for him not to veto Byleth, or if Nintendo forced his hand there).

Right, I was going to post this as well. The greatest argument for Geno is how much Sakurai supposedly wants him but that shouldn't even be a factor with these fighters passes since he's not part of the selection process. So my question is the one from my original post, aside from Sakurai, is there anyone at Nintendo or Square-Enix who cares enough about Super Mario RPG to push for Geno? I don't think there is. If I'm missing someone, please tell me.

 

[3DSNinja]

Well, we got Joker, who appears to have gotten in solely due to Sakurai's love of Persona 5. And Terry, who got in due to Sakurai's love of KoF and Fatal Fury.

 

[Opossum]

Well, we got Joker, who appears to have gotten in solely due to Sakurai's love of Persona 5. And Terry, who got in due to Sakurai's love of KoF and Fatal Fury.

Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation. Atlus and SNK are also very chummy with Nintendo in general.

 

[Louie G.]

To be completely fair, confirmation of what we already knew about Nintendo being dominant regarding character picks doesn't really disqualify the idea that they may throw the fans a bone here and there.

I believe that Banjo was added in part to improve relations with Microsoft, but while they could have chosen Minecraft on the basis of being more relevant and significant to their relationship they went with Banjo. Not to say they would totally for sure go with Geno if they collaborate with SE again, or Sora for that matter; I think that a Bravely Default character makes a fair bit of sense too considering the upcoming release. I do however believe that Nintendo would be aware of Geno's popularity among some of the diehard fans in some capacity and may want to capitalize on that, or Sora's popularity at large among the gaming community.

It's not like Joker or Terry were particularly obvious promo picks for Nintendo... they come from companies Nintendo is fairly close with but I think there's a clear reason people seem to believe these are "Sakurai picks", to find a rhyme or reason why Nintendo wanted to add these characters when many assumptions seem to be that they just want to promote games. Sure you have Persona 5 Scramble but honestly not sure Joker's inclusion would have been driven directly by this.

My point being that Nintendo's selection process seems to vary. Not much is changing in the context of these two characters imo.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day Over

Today we are going for Namco again, with two classic Namco fighters. Heihachi from Tekken and Nightmare from Soul Calibur. Rate them both in Chance and Want.

Tomorrow we will be still with fighting games, but with ARC SYS rather than Namco. Predict Ragna from Blazblue and Sol from Guilty Gear.

 

[Sari]

Music Post

----------

Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

Heihachi

Spoiler: Tekken Music

Nightmare

Spoiler: Soul Calibur Music

 

[Ridrool64]

Going from 3D to 2D... twice.

Heihachi Chance: 60%. What I gave Lloyd is what I'll give Heihachi. As I believe base game content no longer significantly impacts characters with potential, the Pac-Man Namco Roulette thing is no longer an issue. Similarly, I believe that the voice actor thing is also no longer an issue. Re-use his old voice clips, cast a new person for the role, there's solutions. Now for his credentials: Tekken is one of the biggest fighting game franchises out there. Heihachi has the potential to be unique from not only Ryu and Ken, but every character in Smash to date. Did I mention that Sakurai almost went for him over Pac-Man, only to fail because he couldn't do the moveset? I think that's his biggest weakness: the way Smash plays is so alien to how Tekken does it that it'd be something of a challenge to do. But he's overcome Ridley's problem, so could he do it with Heihachi? I'm ignoring the costume because it could just come back later. Sure, the obvious release date was passed, but there's a bunch of characters who skipped the obvious release date anyway so I don't think it's anything special. While Heihachi does have to contend with other Bandai-Namco characters, there's precedent for him being the lead choice for Tekken even as a fighter.

Heihachi Want: 50%. You'd think that after being caught in a Twitter incident with the director of Tekken, I'd be angry and hateful of him. No, actually; I've seen the light without ever touching a Tekken game (which I really gotta do!). The moveset videos tell me that this is a character who you should not only understand as a potential fighter, but understand the potential of. And, well, how can you top tying people to a rocket and watching them blast off into space? You really can't. That being said, I'd rather somebody who I'm personally familiar with like Lloyd, but at least Heihachi is legitimately cool anyway.

Nightmare Chance: 20%. Nightmare not only competes with other Bandai-Namco characters like a Tales character, Heihachi, and others, but unlike Heihachi there is a chance that if Soulcalibur is chosen it's not him. There's a few other names I've heard in contention for the spot, recurring Sophitia and technically Siegfried as well, though I at least believe Nightmare is the likeliest (just I can't decide by how much). The biggest problem is that Soulcalibur, in terms of reputation, is Tekken lite. And when Tekken is on the table... I can't really see a reason for Nightmare to get in first.

Nightmare Want: 35%. I guess he looks cool? But again, moveset videos would be the biggest reason why I think of him. Outside of Bamco rep discussion only done to satisfy Smash fandom OCD, Nightmare isn't really brought up as a Smash contender a lot of the time. He'd be neat to see, but not somebody I see enough of to care about. Also haven't touched Soulcalibur either. I like my fighting games 2D for the most part: my favorite 3D fighters are licensed games. It's on my to-do list.

DLC Music x 5. Sol might be boosted or hit by ArcSys giving Kunio-kun up for Spirits, so 17.29%. Ragna is fighting a losing battle against the Badguy, so 7.29%.

 

[Nemuresu]

Since we're on the topic of characters being chosen and all, I've come across this tweet. It quotes a site that relates Sakurai acknowledging in a Famitsu article that there are too many Fire Emblem characters indeed. But that he doesn't have much power about it. He was asked to put Byleth in, so he did.

I wanted to share that since too often I've seen arguments that "Sakurai wants this character" or the like when this makes it clear that he doesn't hold this sort of power at all. For instance, maybe Sakurai likes 2B but that doesn't mean much. He's not calling the shots, at least not anymore (makes me wonder who else was on the list for him not to veto Byleth, or if Nintendo forced his hand there).

As much as I'm not shocked over that, this comment just comes to bring another question and that is: how much power does Sakurai actually have over these character decisions? He insisted that he decides whether the character can be worked into Smash or not, but here he says that he was ordered to include Byleth; so, what's his power for DLC? I certainly doubt Nintendo's list had a bunch of non-video game characters to have warranted such thing.

Anyways, gonna move on to the next two characters:

Heihachi:
Chance: 80%-I'm just going to cover some of the arguments against his inclusion:
His voice actor died:
Heihachi, alongside other Tekken characters is now part of KOF: All Stars. Namco just recycles Unsho Ishizuka's clips to include him.
Pac-Man's taunt:
If that was such a big deconfirmation, then why was the Mii costume absent from Terry's costume batch? It certainly was a glaring decision if you come to consider the fact that it debutted in another fighting game set.
Sakurai said it was complicated to include him:
That statement was from before Ryu was included into Smash. Now we have three different fighting game characters, and none of them are super-accurate to their original versions. And no, I don't consider the "limb buttons" to be a problematic, since all the other guys come from games that use four to six attack buttons; they all had to have their movesets compressed to work in Smash.
There's only two ways that the whole costume can be resolved: one is that Heihachi's indeed going to be a playable, while the other is another Namco character will come with it. But I lean towards the former since Tekken in general is a big franchise that I can see Nintendo tackling.
Want: 100%-Now that Terry is in Smash, Heihachi is my most wanted. I just love having these fighting game characters in Smash, so the more, the merrier. We've got Capcom and SNK on board, now it's Namco's turn.

Nightmare:
Chance: 5%-Soul Calibur has always been problematic as far as staying active goes, and because of that, I doubt there's that much interest in seeing Nightmare in Smash. After all, a lot of people were losing their patience with rumours pointing towards VI's annnouncement. Not to mention, during some interviews, there were comments suggesting the series would stay dead if this latest entry didn't sell well.
Also, with Tekken and Arc Sys' series, I really doubt Soul Calibur would come out on top as far as fighting game franchises are concerned.
Want: 80%-Nightmare was my go-to character in Soul Calibur when I was first introduced to the series a long time ago. So his inclusion would be really awesome, more so since it's not very likely for VI to come to Switch anytime soon.

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x5

Predictions:
Sol: 24.61%
Ragna: 11.83%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rocket man
Chance: 2%
I'm confident in us getting a second Namco character, I'm not so confident in it being Heihachi. Sure, Sakurai had him on his mind during the Smash 4 DLC cycle but ultimately was rejected due to Sakurai not finding a good way to implement Tekken's mechanics into the game to my knowledge. This situation can easily repeat were Nintendo to propose the geezer. Things can change over time sure, but I'm not sure this is one of those cases. Case and point: his Pacman cameo. Most of us might not see that as a hard deconfirm but to me it seems Sakurai once again failed to turn him into a fighter for the base game and throwed him into Pacman's taunt cameo just to have in there somewhere. It doesn't have to be the case but it's what I'm feeling at the moment.

Edit: Also want to add that his Mii Costume being currently MIA could easily not mean anything. Costumes that come with challenger packs don't have a pattern to them. Nothing says it had to come along with Terry. I think it will probably just return along with others if we get another Namco character that isn't him.

Want: 25%
I don't really have any strong feelings for him. I'd understand his inclusion but he'd honestly feel a bit boring to me, despite his missle FS and supposed electrical powers. Terry is also the most fun I'm gonna have with a traditional fighting game brawler in Smash so I don't have much need for another.

Lich king FCC edition
Chance: 35%
I'm kinda going against the grain here, aren't I? While probably not the likeliest Namco character (that honor goes to Lloyd) Nightmare has become someone I've been seeing as a big contender recently. Tekken might be the more succesfull series but that won't take away from Soulcalibur's legacy. I haven't played either series but from what I've heard the gameplay is less technical and more straightforward than that of Tekken so while it may be a 3d fighter just like it, the same issues Sakurai had with Heihachi may not apply for Nightmare. With a recent release that will be at evo this year SC will also remain fresh on people's minds for a while. Plus, a certain iconic Nintendo character starred in it once. Definitely think this series along with Nightmare are being considered. Sakurai might still prefer Hei but Nightmare probably brings enough new to the table for him not to pass him up.

Chance: 70%
If you couldn't tell I'm a bit more weirdly enthusiastic for Nightmare right now. Despite Lloyd being likelier imo it's Nightmare I actually have on my FP2 list. I haven't even played a Soulcalibur game but his desing and aesthetic have recently clicked with me more than that jrpg protag and old man could. There currently isn't a character on the roster quite like him. It's come to the point where he's become my 2nd most wanted Namco rep and will make me pick up SC2 if I ever come across it.

Sol Badguy: 41.14%
Ragna: 7.55%
Reporter and Wrestler x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just going to post one things since it will be coloring my ratings going forward.

I believe we will get a third season pass for dlc. I know some people might be surprised, but most big fighting games get a huge amount of support. As such, I may give out higher ratings than others.


I will be posting my ratings later tonight, expect some high scores for Heihachi.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Just going to post one things since it will be coloring my ratings going forward.

I believe we will get a third season pass for dlc. I know some people might be surprised, but most big fighting games get a huge amount of support. As such, I may give out higher ratings than others.


I will be posting my ratings later tonight, expect some high scores for Heihachi.

That's fair, though I have to ask, does that one datamine from way back in the day with 15 fighter slots or something have anything to do with it? Or has that since been debunked (I haven't been paying attention)?

 

[Jomosensual]

Heihachi
Chance 40 - After Lloyd I think he has the best chances from Namco. Only major thing that's an issue for him is that Namco could very easily not get anyone else in the pass(although I dont expect that to be the case) and competition. While it's not as strong as SE or Capcoms was before Resident Evil died, there's still a group of solid picks there. There's also Sakurai's comments about making a 3D fighter into 2D being hard, and while Sakurai changed his opinions on some things already he's not going to change them on everything, and that might be an issue here. Sure, the Mii Costume not being back is weird but he's not the only one and they might have just decided to bump it back to the 2nd pass when they decided they were doing one.

Want 50 - Can't take issue with his inclusion. There are other fighting game characters I want more and other Namco reps I'm equally interested in seeing make it in. I also havent played Tekken so I dont have a major connection with the character.

Nightmare
Chance 15 - I like the character and he's the most likely one from Soul Calibur. That being said, I think out of all the possible Namco reps Nightmare is one of the least likely. Not a lot of fan demand for his inclusion and I've heard about Namco not necessarily caring about the games as much as others. No idea if that's actually true or not but I've heard it a lot so I'm guessing that it comes from somewhere.

Want 70 - Nightmare seems really cool. I have limited SC experience so I dont know much about the character but he seems like someone I'd enjoy.

Predictions
Sol 15%
Ragna 8%

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[BowserKing]

Heihachi

Chance: 25%. First of all, he was considered for Smash at some point, which gives him a bit of a chance. His Mii costume is absent from this game, giving him a slightly higher chance. Namco is needing a second rep, and while he makes a cameo in Pac-Man's up-taunt (random, but still), it does not diminish is chance. Competition is not too much of a concern.

Want: 60%. He fights many criteria to be in the game. Being a villain helps, and he will be fun to play as. And lets not forget about the opportunities that wont be wasted. Whatever it be Heihachi vs Ganondorf, Heihachi vs Link or Heihachi and Pac-Man vs Ryu and Megaman or Ken, there is lots of potential for him top be in this game.

Nightmare

Chance: 10%. Heihachi is way more likely to be in this game, but then again, things can change. Competition is the biggest concern, as it is greater for Nightmare, and chances are, if a Soul Calibur rep would be chosen, it might be Ivy (from the first game, due to censorship issues), but Nightmare could have a chance.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as however, and he would have a rematch with Link once more. Since I don't know too much about this character, I would say as long as he is fun to play as, it's fine by me.

Prediction: Ragna (5%) and Sol (5%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 3 for Meowth

 

[GoodGrief741]

Woo boy, running calcs for Geno and Sora was a doozy. Tons of misinformation, tons of people unfamiliar with thread rules. I do hope we don't get another rating like that soon.

*looks at schedule* Ah ****, we're doing Shantae.

Spoiler: Calcs

2B
35.41% Chance - 64.09% Want
Last time we rated her she got 21.72% chance and 46.18% want. This was barely post-Joker, so her being so similar both helped her and hurt her, as a second Pass wasn't known. This was also right during that long period when people were debating the Vergeben's Erdrick claims.
Winner of predictions is DrifloonEmpire with 33.17%

Neku Sakuraba
6.46% Chance - 53.89% Want
Another first-time rating for DLC.
Winner of predictions is Ridrool64 with 7.20%

Geno
42.50% Chance - 62.93% Want
First time we rated him he got 18.10% chance and 43.03% want. This was barely post-release, during the height of Spirits disconfirm. Second time we rated him he got 8.09% chance and 54.39% want. This happened just after Hero's reveal, so without more DLC announced most were not confident in his chances. Last time we rated him he got 39.71% chance and 61.90% want. This was after Terry's reveal and the announcement of more DLC. What's happened since then? Well, Cacomallow came and went, apparently some people believe in some Mii Costume leak, but overall I'd attribute the rise in his scores to Geno fans coming to this thread en masse to show their support. We're getting a lot of that lately.
Winner of predictions is DanganZilla5 with a precise 40.00%

Sora
40.58% Chance - 54.44% Want
First time we rated him he got 15.87% chance and 38.64% want. This was post-release, and with the Erdrick leaks people were undecided on whether, as a Disney character, he was still in the running. Second time we rated him he got 7.32% chance and 47.47% want. Again, this was just after Hero. The rise in want can probably be attributed to Kingdom Hearts III's release, and him amassing new fans. Last time we rated him he got 39.40% chance and 63.67% want. This was like a week ago, so chance score is pretty much the same. Drop in want can probably be explained by the huge amount of Geno fans that participated, as Sora is perhaps the puppet's biggest competition.
Winner of predictions is Nemuresu with 40.89%

Extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 10
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 33
NintenRob 100
Nemuresu 5
Ninjaed 5
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
@Velveeta Dream 5
Wunderwaft 10

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Heihachi

Chance: 20%
Him being in Pac-Man's taunts hurts him compared to other Namco reps. Also the fact that Sakurai talked about difficulties implementing him as well as his voice actor passing away.

Want: 10%
Meh, there are other Namco characters I'd rather have. I don't have any attachment for the Tekken series anyway.

Nightmare

Chance: 20%
Sure, he could happen. Soul Calibur has been on Nintendo is decently popular.

Want: 5%
No attachment to this character either. He wouldn't really do anything for me.

Noms:
Terra Branford x5

 

[NintenRob]

Imma abstain today, nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Predictions 10% for both tomorrow

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Heihachi:

Chance: 20% - This guy is really tricky to rate. We know that he's been considered before, and he's probably the most recognizable face that Namco have to offer at this point. His Mii Costume is also MIA, and while the same can be said for Lloyd, a direct competitor, it's still notable, especially as he could have fit in nicely with the Terry wave. On the other hand, we also know that he's already been rejected at least once before, specifically because Sakurai couldn't find a satisfying way to implement him, and the one thing that he seemingly has control over now is being able to say whether a fighter is realizable or not. Him being in Pac-Man's taunt certainly doesn't give confidence that his situation has changed either, and some would even argue that Terry's inclusion in the previous Pass could be seen as a blow to him as well, as you'd expect Tekken to take priority over KoF/FF when it comes to fighting game representation (granted there are so many other factors that could have come into play).

Honestly, if not for the implementation issue, he'd be the runaway favorite for the next Namco character imo, but he has that one big stumbling block ahead of him. That does not mean he's impossible, maybe the idea has finally clicked for Sakurai, and he's a big enough character that he's probably at least been taken into consideration again, but for now I wouldn't place my bets on him.

Want: 60% - Sure, why not? He's a cool character, one of fighting games' big icons, and I've had my fun with Tekken in the past.

Nightmare:

Chance: 5% - He's got an outside shot, but the same can be said about other Namco reps, like KOS-MOS, Agumon and Don-Chan, and better things can be said about Lloyd, Heihachi and a Dark Souls character. He potentially runs into the same problem as Heihachi as well, as Sakurai specifically stated that the issue with Heihachi was getting his movement right, by which I can only assume he meant translating 3D movement to 2D. Soul Calibur is of course another 3D fighter, so at that point the question is that if finally Sakurai picks the lock, why would Nightmare take priority over Heihachi? Of course it does control differently, and maybe being a sword fighter and having a more "Smash-like" moveset can help him, but I'm not very confident in those points.

Want: 65% - Definitely another good Namco option, I do have a preference for Agumon or a Dark Souls character, but I'd welcome him with open arms. He's got an awesome design, cool abilities, and a banger theme, I'm not all too familiar with Soul Calibur in general, but I dig the idea.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x5

 

[Sari]

Heihachi

We rated him back in December and basically nothing has changed since then. I'll just quote what I previously wrote during that day:

Chance: 40%
Back in August we rated the chances of any Tekken character making it in (which ironically enough was on the same day we rated an SNK character). I thought Heihachi was the only viable Tekken candidate so I'll just list the pros/cons for him that I wrote during that rating day:



For reference I gave Heihachi a 20% chance of happening at the time. Also that rating was a paraphrased version of an even bigger Heihachi writeup I did.

Three big things have happened since that rating day:

1. Terry's inclusion - With Terry being added and essentially deconfirming every other SNK character/series, Tekken is now most likely the next fighting game series to get a character in my opinion. Yes there is ArcSys but I think Tekken has a much greater legacy and history with Sakurai that it would definitely have priority. Mortal Kombat also exists but its failure in Japan makes it the least likely of all the series I mentioned so far.
2. Heihachi's SSB4 mii costume possibly not returning - The Terry Direct showed off some new fighting-based mii costumes that were from SNK and Virtua Fighter. This would've been the perfect time to release a Kyo mii costume Heihachi's old mii costume, but it was mysteriously absent. Of course we can't really draw too many conclusions from this since they could just release it with another Namco character or it was just cut entirely, but its absence is a bit fishy.
3. Namco reusing Heihachi's voice clips for future projects - In November, the King of Fighters x Tekken collab for the KoF All-Star mobile game that I mentioned earlier went live. Heihachi's voice clips in the crossover are reused from his Tekken 7 appearance, which makes me think that they could do it for other non-Tekken appearances like Smash since it'd be a nice tribute to his late VA.

As far as Namco characters go, Heihachi is looking to be one of the frontunners. The only real competition I see him having is with Lloyd Irving or another Tales character. KOS-MOS was never really a threat to Heihachi's chances since Tekken is a titan when it comes to sales/being recognizable. Harada's tweet the other day about Xenosaga not being profitable hurts her chances even more, so it's really just Tekken vs Tales.

Want: 65%
With Terry now in Smash, I am a bit more open to other fighting game series getting in. I never got around to playing a Tekken game but from what I've seen I'd be completely ok with Heihachi getting in. He's one of the most iconic antagonists in a fighting game so I think he is very deserving of a spot in Smash.

----------

Abstaining on Nightmare since I'm not familiar with Soul Calibur that much.

----------

Sol Badguy chance prediction: 24.13%
Ragna chance prediction: 17.83%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Heihachi

Chance: 30% - Out of all Namco reps, Heihachi is the one that Sakurai has mentioned the most. He was nearly chosen over Pac Man and was only kept out due to having a difficult time translating Tekken gameplay to Smash. Tekken is Namco's biggest franchise and it'll surely be represented in some form. Though all of this has been discussed before so I'll keep it brief.

What Heihachi has going for him most right now is the absence of his Mii Costume, since it didn't come with Terry like Akira's did. And since we're now in DLC that was decided post-production the Pac Man taunt is no longer a factor.

However, the difficulty of implementing him in the past and potential return of his Miincostume could spell the end for him, but we'll have to wait and see!

Want: 10% - Tekken is extremely significant and would complete the legendary fighting game triad with Street Fighter and SNK. Furthermore, his electric attacks would be cool and separate him from Ryu, Ken, and Terry.
Though my big reason for his low rating is inter company competition. Namco's being very conservative with their character number and the next Namco rep will likely be the last. So if Heihachi get in he deconfirms my most wanted character, fellow Pac Man taunt addition The Prince of All Cosmos.


Nightmare:

Chance: 10% - Soul Calibur has a very interesting history with Nintendo. It has had two games on Nintendo systems (Soul Calibur II and Soul Calibur Legends), the former having Link as a guest character and the latter being a Wii exclusive. So in the regard that puts Soul Calibur in a better position than a lot of popular third party choices. It shows that there's been a good relationship in the past!

Though it does have a couple of typical disadvantages. First is recency, at least in Nintendo's case. Soul Calibur VI did release last year, but the last time the series was on Nintendo systems was the aformentioned Legends, so Nintendo might not see him as a profitable choice. Second is competition, both within Namco and his own franchise. Soul Calibur has a big cast of characters so even if the series was chosen there'd be no guarantee it'd be nightmare. Second is that Soul Calibur would be what I consider a Tier II Namco series in terms of Smash chances, like Katamari or Dark Souls. It's significant but it has the two remaining Namco titans as major obstacles, which could pose a problem.

Want: 0% - Nightmare would be an interesting choice, but I wouldn't want him for the same reasons as Heihachi, competition with The Prince of All Cosmos.


Speaking of which, a Prince of All Cosmos/Chosen Undead day would be a cool addition to the schedule. Two lesser discussed single player (for the most part) Namco franchises that recently had rereleased of their first games on the Switch.


Nominations:
Bubsy x10

Predictions:
Sol Badguy - 10.58%
Ragna - 10.42%

 

[DanganZilla5]

The man who sends people into space by tying them to a rocket

Chance: 35%

Heihachi is in a weird spot. Sakurai said during Smash 4's development that he considered Heihachi, but he had trouble thinking of how he could work in Smash. But that was Smash 4 so he could have changed his mind. Tekken is a popular series and one of the biggest fighting game series not in Smash yet, with Heihachi being a mascot for the series as well as being one of their crossover kings, being featured in games like Project X Zone. The thing is he is competing against Lloyd, Nightmare and Agumon for the Bamco spot which is stiff competition. And we are not sure if Bamco is even going to get another rep if it's taking this long. As for him being in Pac-Man's taunt, I'm not sure how to interpret that.

Want: 51%

I'm not a fan of Tekken and my only personal experience with Heihachi is with Playstation all stars. Plus in terms of a Bandai Namco rep, I would much prefer Agumon or Klonoa. But with that said, I think Tekken is pretty cool and I would still like to see it get content.


Hopefully this guy won't be a nightmare for the Smash community in some way...

Chance: 35%

Soul Calibur is a pretty popular series. It also has a history of having guest characters and, in a way, is known as Bamco's crossover fighting series. Coincidentally a lot of Smash's 3rd party characters are no strangers to crossovers such as Ryu, Ken, Terry, Simon (who is in another crossover fighting game where he can fight freakin Optimus Prime), Cloud, Sonic, and Mega Man. Nightmare himself would easily stand out from everyone else in the roster due to his kickass design and variety of weapons which can make for an awesome moveset. He seems like a viable contender.

Want: 65%

Admittedly I have very little history with Soul Calibur, but Nightmare would be sick. He just oozes cool and would have a fantastic moveset. Plus Soul Calibur is cool in general and having Nightmare fight Link in Smash would make that situation go full circle.

Predictions:
Ragna - 5%
Sol Badguy - 18%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[jamesster445]

Heihachi
Chance: 50%
Want: 90%
I think there are a Lot of IRL reasons why Heihachi won't be in Smash. Between his 1st seiyu's death after Tekken 6, Heihachi himself dying in Tekken 7, and his 2nd seiyu's death after Tekken 7. I get the feeling that Harada has been trying to retire the character for a while now. Heihachi was reduced to side character in Tekken 5-6 then his VA dies and then in the immediate follow up Heihachi himself dies. This is why I think Jin or Kazuya have better chances (among other reasons).
That said if the Tekken/Smash teams have made their arrangements and ended up adding him in Volume 2, I would not be mad at all.

Nightmare
Chance: 30%
Want: 80%
Soul Calibur isn't as popular as Tekken, so I sadly don't expect to see Nightmare and his badass demon horse anytime soon.

Nominations: Gex x5