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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
I think people here may be slightly under-estimating the concept of an indie rep. I don't feel I know enough about either Hat Kid or Hollow Knight to rate them in particular, but I'd be surprised if you had to be the most popular indie to get into Smash, for two reasons:

1) Popularity is always a factor, but it doesn't seem to especially matter? Persona wasn't the most popular JRPG franchise not in Smash Bros when Joker was announced. Street Fighter and Mega Man aren't the most popular Capcom franchises, but they are the two with playable representation in Smash. I don't think many people would say "Well, Resident Evil is just a spirit event, so no other Capcom character will happen!" in spite of RE being Capcom's most-successful series sales-wise. It's definitely a factor, but gameplay is obviously the most important thing. I don't think indie characters are an exception to this.

2) There is a PR benefit to representing a smaller indie company. If Nintendo is picking the DLC and their intent to show off how much they care about all indie companies, then I could see them picking someone a bit smaller then UNDERTALE, which was winning tonnes of GOTY awards back in 2015. Picking someone smaller who would provide unique gameplay could be a good choice, showing off how much they care for indies by giving a niche game a serious spotlight on them. This is kind of what happened with Cadence of Hyrule already - Nintendo's first proper indie collab wasn't exactly with the most high-profile or famous company.

I don't know what indie character they would pick, nor do I have any specific preference (I run the Jill Stingray support thread, but that's more for a Mii Costume and I don't see her being a proper character); however, I don't think they have an effective 0% chance just because Sans and Cuphead are Mii Costumes.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
I think people here may be slightly under-estimating the concept of an indie rep. I don't feel I know enough about either Hat Kid or Hollow Knight to rate them in particular, but I'd be surprised if you had to be the most popular indie to get into Smash, for two reasons:

1) Popularity is always a factor, but it doesn't seem to especially matter? Persona wasn't the most popular JRPG franchise not in Smash Bros when Joker was announced. Street Fighter and Mega Man aren't the most popular Capcom franchises, but they are the two with playable representation in Smash. I don't think many people would say "Well, Resident Evil is just a spirit event, so no other Capcom character will happen!" in spite of RE being Capcom's most-successful series sales-wise. It's definitely a factor, but gameplay is obviously the most important thing. I don't think indie characters are an exception to this.

2) There is a PR benefit to representing a smaller indie company. If Nintendo is picking the DLC and their intent to show off how much they care about all indie companies, then I could see them picking someone a bit smaller then UNDERTALE, which was winning tonnes of GOTY awards back in 2015. Picking someone smaller who would provide unique gameplay could be a good choice, showing off how much they care for indies by giving a niche game a serious spotlight on them. This is kind of what happened with Cadence of Hyrule already - Nintendo's first proper indie collab wasn't exactly with the most high-profile or famous company.

I don't know what indie character they would pick, nor do I have any specific preference (I run the Jill Stingray support thread, but that's more for a Mii Costume and I don't see her being a proper character); however, I don't think they have an effective 0% chance just because Sans and Cuphead are Mii Costumes.
This 100%. Just because two more popular indies are costumes doesn't mean everyone else is doomed to be a costume. If Nintendo wants to promote some less known indie game by putting a character from that game to Smash, they'll do it.
 

Arcadenik

Smash Legend
Joined
Jun 26, 2009
Messages
14,152
NNID
Arcadenik
As it turns out, when people don't want a character, they'll make up a ton of **** to justify giving them low chance scores. Huh.
Welcome to SmashBoards.

That’s pretty much how Rate Their Chances works. I remember giving 100% want and 50% chance to Duck Hunt Dog. By the end of the day, Duck Hunt Dog got 95% want and 15% chance.
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,206
Location
Georgia
Knight
Chance: 1%
I don't think Nintendo would be willing to go any further than a spirit board event for Hollow Knight. There's much bigger franchises, older popular requests, and series with more impact on the gaming industry that they were likely looking at getting first. If they were adding 10-15 newcomers, then I'd say maybe.
Want: 0%
I don't know what to think of this series. It doesn't stand out as anything I'd get invested in. I'd prefer someone who can bring more genuine unexplored mechanics to Smash.

Hat Kid
Chance: 1%
Hat in Time, like Hollow Knight, probably wasn't the first franchise Nintendo looked towards when deciding the DLC. A lot of other characters have more to offer from a business standpoint. Again, she'd have a better chance if the spots weren't so limited.
Want: 30%
She has enough to fill a decent moveset, but I'm thinking more about how Sakurai made one of Kirby's abilities fighting with a parasol. I'd hope that he'd use some of his own creation as inspiration for translating Hatkid to Smash. It would feel like a natural and unique fighting style. She could be a cool character if done right.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Reimu from Touhou and Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo.

Predict Ryu Hayabusa and Rayman.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

----------

Music Post

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Reimu


Arle Nadja

 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Abstaining on Reimu. I don't know enough about her to give a fair rating.

Arle Nadja

Chance: 45%

I'm less confident with her now as some of the evidence pointing toward her (pic of the day theory and Daisy Theory) turned out to be not for her. However, that doesn't hurt her chances at all. Puyo Puyo is popular in Japan and Sega has been pushing the series in the West. I also have to once again bring up that they put Puyo Puyo on the SNES service in North America before Kirby Avalanche (the game that originally came out in North America in place of Puyo Puyo). I find that to be suspicious. Arle would likely be the character chosen to rep Puyo Puyo. She is featured predominantly in advertising and is generally considered to be the mascot (besides Carbuncle). She would fit very well with Smash and is the type of wacky, left field character that Sakurai likes to choose. She also has moveset potential with all kinds of spells like ice, thunder, and even light and dark.

When it comes to Sega reps, I strongly believe she is one of the top candidates. She faces some competition from other games like Shin Megami Tensei and Yakuza. To be fair, those are very different games and appeal to a different audience. Arle is a puzzle rep and is probably the likeliest puzzle rep with Tetris having a spirit event. Overall, she is a very good candidate and I can totally see her be the "popular japanese pick" a la Hero. She just checks a lot of the boxes and has a moderately loud fanbase to back her up as well (at least from what I've seen. Her demand in Japan is probably bigger). She is quite likely.

Want: 60%

Ever since her last rating, I've actually played some Puyo Puyo games and while I can't get super into them, I do think they are fun and very charming. Arle herself has a lot of personality and I'm curious to see how her moveset could work in Smash. Also, I want her to team up with Isabelle to beat up Snake and Ridley for the lolz. God this game is so weird.

Predictions:
Ryu Hayabusa - 40%
Rayman - 5% (The idea of Rayman bein playable seems like a joke at this point with how close he's gotten and no matter how likely he seems, he just can't quite reach that level of Sakurai and Nintendo wanting him be playable. It probably has to do with his games not selling well in Japan).

Noms: Crypto x5
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
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Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Calc scores

The Knight
4.62% Chance - 50.12% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Louie G. Louie G. with 4.50%
Our last rating of Hollow Knight took place in August where he got 9.09% Chance and 37.32% Want. About a month after that rating was when the Sans Mii costume got revealed, more or less putting the playable status of indies into jeopardy. The Cuphead Mii costume further cemented the feeling that future indies will get deluxe mii costumes at best, which shows through the slight drop in the Knight's chance despite more characters on the way. Slight increase in want could be a result of more character slots being open or just a general interest of Hollow Knight in general.

-----

Hat Kid
0.85% Chance - 23.69% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was PokéfreakofBACON PokéfreakofBACON with 0.97%
The last time we rated Hat Kid was in March of 2019 where she got 0.17% Chance and 55.00% Want. Keep in mind that last year's rating took place a few weeks after the devs of Hat Kid's game flat out deconfirmed her on Twitter. We still rated her that day since she had high noms at the time, but as expected no one thought she would actually make it in.

Now with more DLC announced and A Hat in Time finally available on Switch... not much has changed. The general consensus for yesterday's rating was that bigger and longer lasting indie characters would have priority over Hat Kid so her chance score didn't budge up by a lot. As for how much people want her in Smash, Hat Kid's want score dropped by a whopping 31.31% since last time. Granted their were a fair amount of abstains the first time we rated her, but even I did not expect the want score to be that low for a character whose popular game on Switch is largely inspired by the Mario and Banjo series.

-----

Winners of chance predictions both receive 5 extra noms.
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Abstain on Arle, as I don't play Puyo Puyo that isn't Kirby's Avalanche or Mean Bean Machine.
Reim u
Chance:30%: IMO third most likely indie behind Freddy and Quote. Touhou is popular and has a huge fanbase, and is pretty huge. But, Freddy and Quote are bigger, more iconic, and probably more popular, though don't quote me on that.
Want:90%: She has a cool designs and would be unique. And Touhou has kickass soundtracks, so that would be sick.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,531
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Arle

Chance: 70%

Has a reasonable chance of occurring. Puyo Puyo is a beloved franchise and Sega is friendly with Nintendo.

Want: 100%

I like Puyo Puyo well enough. I think she'd be a great fit.

Reimu

Chance: 70%

Like before, Touhou is beloved, especially in Japan. I think she has enough cultural impact to be considered.

Want: 100%
I also like Touhou as well. And it'd be worth it just to get UN Owen was Her in Smash.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Oh god, it's time for this one now.

Reimu
Chance 5 - Another indie rep, and this one is a literal who everywhere outside of Japan. Got brought up a lot in a lot of leaks that all got disproved or faked. What even was the case here again? We haven't had a Japan only character be added in to the game since Lucas in Brawl I believe and lack of relevance outside of Japan is a big reason some characters haven't been added, like Takamaru.

Want 0 - Looked into her more since the last time and still don't really want her. The level of unknown she has outside of Japan is a really big turn off to me since I have no connection to the character and a lot more interesting and better indie picks already got Mii Costume'd or AT'd. Feels like she should be a special Mii Costume at best really.


Arle
Chance 40 - Feels like a contender for another Sega rep if we get one. The no violence article thing(whatever that was) bothers me with her although there might be ways around it. Arle was also propped up a lot by faulty evidence but there's enough here to make me think she's a possibility with her scoring well on international fan ballots and the likes. That, and if we dont get another Sonic rep I think it's between her and the Hitman character(blanking on the name) for one more Sega character and Arle is more requested, even though I think overall it's pretty even for chances there.

Want 20 - Not super into this. The Hitman character seems a lot more exciting to me and I think another Sonic rep sounds more appealing, especially Eggman. Doubt I'll outright reject it should it happen but there's others I'd rather get.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
Abstain on Reimu.

Arle
Chance: 50%
A popular Sega character, and since Puyo Puyo is somewhat known Nintendo might have put her in consideration at least.
Want: 70%
Wasn't really interested at first but after some search she seems cool. She might be able to stack Puyos in game, and then clear them out to deal massive damage and knockback. That can make some big brain plays. I tell you, she could be the next Pac-Man.
Also, she looks so adorable. I love her artstyle.

Hayabusa: 32%
Rayman: 27%
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
You know who I'm here for, you know who I'm the world's biggest fan of (getting in Smash-wise, at least). So let's tackle Arle immediately because boy do I have a lot to say about her!

This time I'm not dropping a huge intro on her chances.

Chance: Variable, but I will go with a 65%. But she is on my main predictions list, though it's because I envision her as the "big Japan fan want" character that does what Hero did back during last year.

Let's get this out of the way, Arle faces no serious competition from within her own series. It is only her to have any fan requests, so she's got this if we're getting a Puyo Puyo/Madou Monogatari character.

Arle's chances mostly depend on when the pass was picked. If it was picked within mid-late 2019, post-Hero/Banjo and pre-Terry, then Arle's chances raise drastically, to the extent I'd even give her a 90%. But, the older and older the selections are, the less likely she gets. It's not quite a formula, but assuming that Smash Ultimate's entire roster was picked 5 years ago for some reason, then Arle would, sadly, get a 5% because everything that makes her a viable Smash contender, such as her rapidly growing western popularity and her series getting high promotion from SEGA and, even Nintendo themselves, all comes from after 2017, and thus way too late for Smash Ultimate contention.

So, let's analyze her pros and her cons. Why do more than a few people think she has an earnest shot?

Pros:
  1. SEGA has been a very staunch supporter of the Switch. A lot of games, including Puyo Puyo titles, have come out for the Switch. Notably, all of them (in regards to Puyo) are all regions releases. SEGA is also already involved with Smash, so going to them for more content would not be terribly hard.
  2. Speaking of that, Puyo Puyo itself got a huge western renaissance in 2017 thanks to the release of Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch (and physical PS4, but the Switch userbase has always been way bigger), and in general has achieved massive popularity on the Switch (relative to its former self) both in terms of the west and in general.
  3. Arle has recently become a way bigger fan request, especially in the west, while retaining her Japanese popularity. Like, not to brag, but Twitter has shown more than a few fans of the magician getting her due.
  4. The September incident is, to date, the only time a completely Japan exclusive game released in all territories, untranslated. While no longer the only game to come out in North America for the first time, it still Considering the widespread availability of SNES Online,
  5. Arle's series has a long legacy, but is also relevant and popular today, while being intractable from its genre. This is also important, because in the Byleth Famitsu column, Sakurai noted the tendency of Smash to pick series and characters with more legacy, and this is consistent with the first Fighter's Pass: the youngest series there is Banjo-Kazooie, even if Joker and Byleth are younger, and all five of them come from 20+ year old series that are iconic to fans of their genre.
  6. Arle fits the Terry presentation statement, that the fun of a character is at least just as important (if not more) than that the character is recognizable, though ambiguous english wording may make this point a bit more loose.
  7. As for the moveset, while magic has been done before, the ability to incorporate Puyo Puyo's mechanics into Smash and have it work out would be something I believe Sakurai could do, and this gives her something that makes her stand out.
  8. Alongside Bandai-Namco and Microsoft, SEGA is one of the few third parties in Smash to have no Spirits (right now) and no Mii Costumes outside of either series represented in the base game (Virtua Fighter was represented in the base game) or a series with a Challenger Pack. I believe this opens the door a bit more to those three, though I would not say they help significantly nor do they hurt Capcom/Konami significantly.
  9. That retweet is probably not directly indicative of Arle getting in, but I interpret it as a positive way, that Hosoyamada is fine with Super Smash Bros. and likely wouldn't reject an appearance in Smash like people believed a while back. Granted, this is pure speculation, and it could easily be about FE anyway so I wouldn't put too much stock into this.
Cons:
  1. Almost all of the above points are significant because of how they've been adding up since 2017, turning her from a barely a hoper to a darkhorse into somebody who more than a few consider an actual candidate, some even a frontrunner. But the thing is, all of them are counting on Volume 2 being made in 2017 to 2019. Arle is perhaps the most dependant character on this, losing perhaps everything that makes her likely and becoming almost hopeless.
  2. Her popularity in general is still mostly confined to Japan, and while this isn't a dealbreaker it does put her chances into question at least somewhat.
  3. If Spirit Promotions are a thing, her biggest competitor is likely a secondary Sonic the Hedgehog character, most likely Dr. Eggman. Otherwise, then there's also Kazuma Kiryu, of Yakuza fame, and Sakura (either) from Sakura Wars. Both of them are also popular, though not as much as Puyo Puyo, but may or may not have been easier to get.
  4. I don't think she stands a chance at a Mii Costume, because none of them really fit her and she can't really have a sword or gun-like weapon to use, so I think she's safe from those. But, the possibility of getting a Spirit stands, because the new Zelda fits her. Granted, if she got a Spirit event, it would be because she fell through, but still.
Overall I think she is a frontrunner if the pass was picked later on, but becomes more and more questionable if it was picked earlier on. It really is a case of the eye of the beholder, and currently I believe the pass was picked later.

Want: Same as the last two times. 100%, can't go higher. At this point I now also have a lot of people who I'm friends with and who I provide content for to want her in for as well, so now my desire to see her is even stronger... though this means that she keeps my heart paralyzed during every Tuesday because that's Spirit o' clock. Still, there's nobody I would like to see half as much as Arle.

Now for the eternally poor shrine maiden.

Chance: 45%. Reimu is, in my opinion, one of two indies left who actually have a chance, the other being Quote. This is because her series is also absurdly popular, getting mountains of fanart, and has a huge amount of legacy, spanning over 20 years: essentially, Shantae's legacy with Undertale's popularity put together is already a great combination that most indies, heck, most Fighters in Smash don't compare to (the bigger reason why I gave Hat Kid and the Knight 0's was because their series were too young). As well, it appears ZUN has been more open to working with Nintendo so I don't think he'd get in the way. I'd not expect her to be terribly popular in the west, say, a year ago, but now I believe she's got one of the largest non-Smashboards fandoms I've seen yet. That being said, I think her best shot is as a back-up plan if Arle ends up not happening after all. Not that they're intra-company/series competition or anything, but they fill much of the same role as characters designed to hype up Japan so I am a bit unsure if we'd get both. Still, while not on my short list of main predictions, I would not be terribly surprised if Reimu made it.

Want: 60%. Despite what the above implies, I think Reimu would be a long-term boon for Arle in the distant future. But more than that, Reimu represents a new genre of game, has plenty of potential due to that alone to be unlike anybody else, and I've heard the music, it's pretty darned great. Overall I think she would be at the bare minimum somebody who's great because of what she represents, if nothing else. Plus, solidarity with other people I used to work with.

Paper Mario x 5, and DLC Music x 5 as well.

Hayabusa and Rayman are pretty popular picks for Volume 2. I see the former getting 40.75%, and the latter 27.59% because some people will hold his Spirit/Brawlhalla against him and other people are going to debate on whether or not they think it matters.
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Gonna abstain on Reimu since we've rated her relatively recently and not much has changed for her circumstances. But I'll recap a few things I've said in the past. People are really overrating this character, and this is coming from someone who used to adore Reimu. While her games are huge in Japan she's still a literal who in the west beyond memes from back in the day. She has a niche audience in the west but the inaccessibility of the games' genre and the lack of translations really hurt her. Nintendo's never advertised Touhou during their directs so it doesn't seem like they'd be interested in promoting her. Furthermore Touhou's popularity has waned considerably since its' 2009-2011 days. While it still has a dedicated fanbase in japan, other (more questionable and less inspired IMO) series have come to take its' place, starting with Kantai Collection and later Azur Lane, Girls Frontline, and Fate Go. A lot of Touhou's big memes have also died down considerably, and it just isn't what it's used to be. Furthermore, indie games that are popular in both the East and West have been relegated to spirits, Mii Costumes, and Assist Trophies, and while recognizably isn't always a concern for Sakurai, it's still DLC and it has to have a decent enough appeal to everyone to sell. Nintendo loves sales numbers.

Arle Nadja

Chance: 50% - SEGA and Nintendo have a long lasting and positive relationship ever since the former bowed out of the console market, and I don't expect it to end any time soon. While SEGA already got a character in the last pass, it's a fresh start now, so I expect them to dip their toes in at least one more time. Arle herself has a lot of competition in the form of a second Sonic rep, Kiryu, Aiai, Samba, Ryo Hazuki, etc, but she's one of the most likely of this group. Puyo Puyo is huge in Japan and is making a decent splash in the west so far. Puyo Puyo's also had a decent amount of Nintendo history and Puyo Puyo Tetris is doing very well on the Switch, so I can see Nintendo looking at her as an appealing choice.

Though while she has appeared in rumors she doesn't have any possible evidence hinting at her conclusion, so at this point of time she could go either way.

Also, is Arle still the main character of the franchise? I don't have a great knowledge of the series but most of the newer art I've seen has Amitie front and center while Arle is off to the side. It was also her hat that got added to Sonic Forces and not anything from Arle. I'd suggest that Amitie could potentially be chosen as an alternative Puyo rep, but knowing Sakurai he'd go for the character with the history and legacy, since that's more his style.


Want: 15% - I have little connection to Puyo Puyo so I can't say I'd be excited, but as a Puzzle and magic character I think she could bring some fun ideras to the table. Though if we do get another SEGA rep I'd rather see another Sonic rep first like Eggman (h***, he reps both Sonic AND Puyo in a way! xD ), or Aiai due to his Phoenix Wright-esque history with Nintendo (and who's prominently feature in SEGA crossovers, in most of which Arle is nowhere to be seen). Either way we're in for something interesting!


Nominations:
Bubsy x5


Predictions:
Ryu Hayabusa - 46.39% (He's always been back and forth but I'm expecting people to rate him highly due to the amount of rumors he's in, which may or may not be piggybacking)
Rayman - 6.85% (Could be a Pass #2 surprise, but those Ubisoft costumes that came with Byleth really hurt him.)
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Agent 47 is not owned by SEGA whatsoever.

Are you thinking of Kazuma Kiryu, from the Yakuza franchise?
Ah ****, that is what I meant. Thanks


Oh god, it's time for this one now.

Reimu
Chance 5 - Another indie rep, and this one is a literal who everywhere outside of Japan. Got brought up a lot in a lot of leaks that all got disproved or faked. What even was the case here again? We haven't had a Japan only character be added in to the game since Lucas in Brawl I believe and lack of relevance outside of Japan is a big reason some characters haven't been added, like Takamaru.

Want 0 - Looked into her more since the last time and still don't really want her. The level of unknown she has outside of Japan is a really big turn off to me since I have no connection to the character and a lot more interesting and better indie picks already got Mii Costume'd or AT'd. Feels like she should be a special Mii Costume at best really.


Arle
Chance 40 - Feels like a contender for another Sega rep if we get one. The no violence article thing(whatever that was) bothers me with her although there might be ways around it. Arle was also propped up a lot by faulty evidence but there's enough here to make me think she's a possibility with her scoring well on international fan ballots and the likes. That, and if we dont get another Sonic rep I think it's between her and the Hitman character(blanking on the name) for one more Sega character and Arle is more requested, even though I think overall it's pretty even for chances there.

Want 20 - Not super into this. The Hitman character seems a lot more exciting to me and I think another Sonic rep sounds more appealing, especially Eggman. Doubt I'll outright reject it should it happen but there's others I'd rather get.
Realized I forgot to do my predicts and noms

Predictions:
Rayman 10%
Hayabusa 40%

Noms
Big Daddy x5
 
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Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
8,769
Location
Rhythm Heaven
REIMU

Chance: 5%
Sorry, I'm gonna be a bit harsh on this one. I'm not trying to be rude or finger-pointy or anything, although the fullest extent I'll go with that is this: Reimu is a character whose significance and likelihood are grossly overstated by a lot of her support base, arguably moreso than most other characters I've seen. Let's just get into why I feel that way.

Let's start with why people consider Reimu to be worth talking about in the first place. Touhou is gigantic in Japan. It's a hugely successful series and has a long legacy upwards of two decades, all created by indie developer ZUN. This puts Touhou in a unique position of being an indie franchise that predates many of our most popular indies of today by some time. It would predate Shantae by about 5 years (and Shantae, at the time, was being published by Capcom) and Cave Story by about 7 years, and has arguably reached significantly higher heights than both of those series. So at first glance, Reimu, being the protagonist of this series, has a lot in her favor. Popular? Iconic? Great legacy? Check check and check... but....

This is all just in Japan. If we flip the script and focus on the west, the situation is much different. Touhou has a following, a fairly prominent one online, but the biggest problem isn't really popularity. The biggest problem with Touhou in the west, and in regards to Smash, is accessibility.

Smash is certainly not above promoting series with smaller followings. It's responsible for the relative success of Mother and Fire Emblem in the west. Ignoring the obvious part about Mother and FE being first party series, Nintendo has little benefit in promoting something like Touhou in contrast with a series that they have direct stake in. But furthermore, most of Touhou's games are not readily accessible and a majority of them are not translated for western audiences. Most of Touhou's western audience has used English patches to understand the games, which are not officially endorsed and therefore don't provide an easy way for these audiences to enjoy it without the language barrier. I've heard that some of the latest titles have been translated, but this is only a recent trend. It would be very difficult to promote such a long legacy of games that are fundamentally inaccessible to at least half of your audience.

That's the bottom line with Reimu really. Nintendo needs to sell a character worldwide, and Touhou's presence is extremely skewed toward a Japanese audience. Even though series like Dragon Quest are more popular in Japan than they are in the west, DQ in particular has been properly localized and has reached notable success across the whole world. Sure, it's not the cultural phenomenon here that it is in Japan, but it's prominent enough in the west for me to have heard about it before I started playing RPGs myself, and to see commercials for it and read about it in Nintendo Power. It was certainly around - Touhou is just not. Its presence in the west is minimal and her inclusion would only be of significant benefit in one side of the world. Even though Smash's choices are ultimately made in Japan and skew toward a Japanese audience, there isn't precedent for choosing a third party DLC character whose presence in the west lies mostly in fan patches and remixes on YouTube. There just isn't enough there for Reimu to be a profitable inclusion in the wider scope of things, when most of her games are effectively blocked off from an audience who would be introduced to her for the first time.

Want: 45%
This is mostly just for some of my friends who happen to be huge Touhou fans. I personally don't have much interest in the series and I feel like the only one in the world who doesn't even like its music all that much! But I will say, I imagine if Reimu did get in she'd be pretty damn fun to play. I can't imagine she'd work like anyone else, and I could see her being a character I particularly enjoy. But I've got no real attachment to her nor any real love toward her series.


I will rate Arle tomorrow, I may have quite a bit to write about her as well.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Chance 5 - Another indie rep, and this one is a literal who everywhere outside of Japan. Got brought up a lot in a lot of leaks that all got disproved or faked. What even was the case here again? We haven't had a Japan only character be added in to the game since Lucas in Brawl I believe and lack of relevance outside of Japan is a big reason some characters haven't been added, like Takamaru.
Touhou isn't Japan only.

Also, and this goes for everyone, literally who comments will be ignored for the counting, and are very much discouraged. They are inflammatory and serve little purpose except to show off your own lack of knowledge. If you mean to call a character obscure, use that word or a synonym.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Freddy Fazbear x210
Kazuma Kiryu x190
The Blob (De Blob) x165
Crypto x155
Carmen Sandiego x150
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x130
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x130

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Reporter & Wrestler x100
Ryo Hazuki x80
Big Daddy (BioShock) x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Chun-Li x65
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x65
Decidueye x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x61
Segata Sanshiro x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
[Rerate] Paper Mario x50
Mii Costume: Quote x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Bubsy x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x21
Concept: DLC music packs x20
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
[Rerate] Kratos x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Black Shadow x8
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Zeraora x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Gnar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x4
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

Freddy Fazbear sneaks past 200 noms.

Segata Sanshiro is now over 50 noms.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
And then there were none

Chance: 25%
Reimu, I think, is one of the Indies I could see getting in Smash. She's from an incredibly influential franchise with a huge legacy. Touhou is massive. Japan adores it, and I will not accept the same dumbass arguments that came when Dragon Quest was in discussion. Touhou, even in the West, is a series that people know of, or have seen, if they're gaming fans or generally internet savvy. It's not mainstream in any sense of the word, but it's not obscure either.

Touhou is probably the series that would be chosen if a shmup rep is to get in. Vic Viper I could see but there are other Konami series that outclass Gradius, and I don't see Galaga's Galaxip or the starship from R-Type getting in. Even then, Touhou is the bullet hell to get in, sorry Ikaruga. As far as intra-company competition, I don't think ZUN's done anything else. As far as indie competition, I think Undertale and Shantae are dead in the water, so, if one gets in, it's between her, Quote and Shovel Knight. Honestly right now I think it's likely that we don't get any.

Want: 90%
Yeah, I think Reimu's more than earned her place in Smash. Touhou, simply put, is a classic franchise. You make a videogame museum, Touhou, as niche and indie and weird as it may be, belongs in it. And that's the kind of character I want in Smash.

Also I like Touhou.

Arrlt

Chance: 10%
Honestly I think the statements made about characters from Puyo Puyo fighting are pretty damning. Not a disconfirmation, as there's certainly the possibility that things changed behind the scenes or that Smash is an exception, but I won't assume anything so as it stands, it's not good.

If it weren't for that, it wouldn't be too bad, as Puyo Puyo, again, is a seminal puzzle series, and even if it's absolutely more popular in its home country than over here, it still made an impact in the West and it grows ever more popular. Arle is also apparently a pretty highly demanded character in Japan. Still, I don't think Arle is the Sega frontrunner, as imo that honor goes to Yakuza's Kazuma Kiryu, who while from a younger series became a massive success and broke into the western market, becoming a AAA franchise despite all odds. But I'm not feeling a Sega newcomer this second pass - except maybe a Sonic character.

Want: 15%
Look, if Arle gets in, great for her fans, and great for Smash in general - her series definitely furthers Smash as the gaming pantheon. But I'm a Lip supporter through-and-through, and I dread the arguments that would be made against her if Arle got in. Plus, I'm more of a Kiryu guy (as evidenced by the fact that I keep nominating him every day).

Speaking of...

Noms: Kiryu x5

Rayman prediction: his spirit and the Ubisoft Mii Costumes will combine to make him low. I also see him as unlikely, but not for those reasons. 3.89%
Hayabusa prediction: a lot will use the good old "he's nothing without the leaks", but I think overall he'll get a respectable 40.26%
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
20,879
Location
Scotland
i regards to yesterdays characters, may i ask how many people ruled them out based on who they werent?
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,206
Location
Georgia
Arle
Chance: 100%

She's a popular request in Japan. Puyo is influential to the puzzle genre. The games have sold millions. SEGA has been localizing old games since the Switch released. She has nearly as many Switch appearances as Sonic, and more games on Switch then the other 2 SEGA characters :ultbayonetta::ultjoker:. Nintendo chose Puyo 2 over their own Kirby for the launch of SNES online. I've little reason to doubt Nintendo chose her to be one of the DLC fighters.
Want: 0%
Liked Bean Machine as a kid. Didn't like it going back to it years after. My dream puzzle characters were a Tetris fighter and Sonia from Puzzle & Dragons. The mechanics are more in-line with how I'd want a puzzle character to play in Smash.

Reimu
Chance: 10%

She's a very well-known character in Japan, but has little else in her favor. Nintendo chose the characters, and even if they're not going down the list of most-recognizable character in gaming, I doubt they're reaching this far into obscure territory. They've only gone as far as a fighting-game mascot whose company has an entire console to it's name, and a highly-requested-for-years character that was big in the West :ult_terry::ultbanjokazooie:
Want: 1%
Smash just got two vampire slayers, I won't accept any Touhou newcomer that isn't Flandre Scarlet. I don't have any interest in the series beyond that to be honest. I would probably recognize one or two songs, which might be like, kinda cool I guess, but not really worth a character I would never play as.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Oh, I didn't expect for her to be back so soon.

I'm abstaining on Arle, because I don't know enough about her to form an educated opinion. The other one, though, hoo boy...

Reimu Hakurei, Shrine Maiden of Paradise
Chance: 45%
Reimu's one of the few indies still in the running, and while I believe she's the best Indie for a spot in Smash, period, she's absolutely the best choice from all the Indies left. Touhou is also literally the ONLY shmup series that could feasibly get into Smash. And of course, given ZUN's rather lax stance on copyright, negotiating with him to get Reimu wouldn't be hard, especially given how ZUN himself has expressed interest in getting the Hakurei Shrine Maiden into Smash. The music, as well, is something known to be legendary: Touhou was a huge part of internet culture in the early 2000s, mostly due to very popular remixes of Touhou Songs, such as Bad Apple!! or Night of Nights. Helps that most of her competition is probably out of the running, those being Undertale, Shantae and Shovel Knight. Really it's between Reimu and Quote (from Cave Story), and I'm certainly of the mind that Reimu wins out between the two. Touhou's popularity has also been slowly but surely growing in the west, owing to the fact that Touhou games are actually becoming legitimately available to the west, fangames or no- just as ZUN wants. Reimu's definitely NOT a literal who, that's for sure! If anything, Reimu's popularity in the west can best be compared to Ness and Lucas- cult followings.


Want: Off the Scales% (100%)
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Reimu is my most wanted character. Period. My feelings haven't changed since the last time she was rated, Touhou music is legendary, moveset potential in spades, the series definitely deserves a spot, and hey, if you're one of those people who believes that the roster doesn't have enough females, Reimu scratches that itch too! Come on, Nintendo. Just give us our eternally poor shrine maiden already!


Lastly...

They've only gone as far as a fighting-game mascot whose company has an entire console to it's name, and a highly-requested-for-years character that was big in the West
You're, uh, you're kidding, right? :ultgnw:? :ulticeclimbers:? :ultness: and :ultlucas:? And even :ultduckhunt: to an extent. All far more obscure than Terry and Banjo, and let's be real here, the only reason those former four have any fan base in the West in particular (More important for the PSI boys, RIP Mother 3) is because they got into Smash. You could even argue that, at least for the time THEY got into Smash, :ultmarth: and :ultroy: were also beyond obscure: They didn't even GET western releases, just like Lucas.
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,206
Location
Georgia
You're, uh, you're kidding, right? :ultgnw:? :ulticeclimbers:? :ultness: and :ultlucas:? And even :ultduckhunt: to an extent. All far more obscure than Terry and Banjo, and let's be real here, the only reason those former four have any fan base in the West in particular (More important for the PSI boys, RIP Mother 3) is because they got into Smash. You could even argue that, at least for the time THEY got into Smash, :ultmarth: and :ultroy: were also beyond obscure: They didn't even GET western releases, just like Lucas.
None of those characters additions were made by Nintendo though. Sakurai had the freedom to add whoever he wanted, that made many of those newcomers possible. Nintendo made the choices this time, and they seem less likely to look at obscure choices.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
They've only gone as far as a fighting-game mascot whose company has an entire console to it's name
Boy do I have something big to tell you about Sega.
You're, uh, you're kidding, right? :ultgnw:? :ulticeclimbers:? :ultness: and :ultlucas:? And even :ultduckhunt: to an extent. All far more obscure than Terry and Banjo, and let's be real here, the only reason those former four have any fan base in the West in particular (More important for the PSI boys, RIP Mother 3) is because they got into Smash. You could even argue that, at least for the time THEY got into Smash, :ultmarth: and :ultroy: were also beyond obscure: They didn't even GET western releases, just like Lucas.
To be fair, it's reasonable to assume that standards are different between first-party and third-party characters.

And I take offense at calling any of those characters obscure. Maybe Mr. G&W pre-inclusion and Marth and Roy in the West.

Honestly, these kinds of comparisons are pointless. Not only is Sakurai not even choosing characters anymore, but the standards for what makes a game obscure are different in today's internet era than they were in the Melee days.
 

Cadillac

Smash Seeker
Joined
Oct 29, 2019
Messages
665
I'm just worried if Reimu gets in. I have no opinions on her whatsoever, but I think she could divide the community way worse than Byleth did. Sure, she is popular, but is she well-known and accepted outside of Touhou fans?
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,821
Location
winnipeg
Reimu

Chance: 15%. Her franchise is popular in Japan, which gives her a bit of a chance, but it seems popularity is different here, but there have been surprises before (Marth joining the Melee roaster is one, since he was exclusive to Japan before this game). If she joins in, it could increase the popularity of her games, but first, she would face off against some competition.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, with some deadly moves and some catchy soundtracks to go with the fight. I can see her franchise get more popular with her inclusion in smash, and who knows, we could see new game come for the switch. But anyways, to the next fighter.

Arle

Chance: 15%. Many people are wanting fighters from puzzle based video games, and Arle is one of their chosen ones. Her popularity has gotten her some boost compared to multiple fighters. However, competition is fierce, not just against her fellow Sega reps, but to many others as well, but she has a chance to pull this off.

Want: 50%. A moveset based off her franchise would be unique amoung the cast, and Arle would be fun to play as. There is some potential for her, and her inclusion would increase the chance of more surprising genres joining smash.

Predictions: Ryu (10%) and Ray-Man (15%)

Noms: 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep and 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion
 
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Meteorite

Smash Cadet
Joined
Sep 25, 2008
Messages
65
Location
United Kingdom
Arle
Chance: 50%. Niche in the West, but very popular in Japan, and highly requested as a Smash character over there. I think the reason why I put her quite high is because Sega is really pushing Puyo Puyo into the West. We have Sega Ages, Puyo 2 on NSO, localisations of Puyo Tetris and Champions, etc. We've seen a Japanese property try this through Hero and Dragon Quest and to a lesser extent with Terry and SNK, so we'll definitely see the same in FP2. Plus I find it unlikely to see a second non-echo third-party representative, so as far as Sega's competition goes, Sonic is out of the picture (as much as I would love to see Tails or Eggman).
Want: 100%. One of my most wanted characters for sure. Unique design, crazy moveset potential, first true puzzle rep, legacy series.

Reimu
Chance: 15%. I think she'll be a Mii Costume like the other indies. Yes, she's massive in Japan, but an indie (or doujin in this case) is still an indie. I don't even think Western unpopularity plays a role in it, you can't tell me that ZUN and co. have as much pull power as a major third-party company. If we're going by Mii Costume chances, she'll be an easy 85%+.
Want: 40%. Never played Touhou, so I don't have much attachment, but I do know Touhou music and subculture, which at this point has overshadowed the gameplay themselves. And Touhou music is undeniably awesome, so if somehow she gets in, I'd be happy. Besides I do love me some bullet hell shooters like Ikaruga and Garegga.

Noms: Chun Li x5
 
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Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
None of those characters additions were made by Nintendo though. Sakurai had the freedom to add whoever he wanted, that made many of those newcomers possible. Nintendo made the choices this time, and they seem less likely to look at obscure choices.
We don't really know WHO exactly was considered, though. Only who was eventually picked by Sakurai from Nintendo's list. For all we know, obscure characters COULD have been on Nintendo's list.
 

Perkilator

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
10,418
Location
The perpetual trash fire known as Planet Earth(tm)
Everybody Loves Reimu
Abstain on both. I'm not touching THAT subject with a 39 1/2 ft. pole.

Arle
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Chances are iffy (mainly because nothing is set in stone), but I don't care. Puyo Puyo is just such a good franchise, and I'd LOVE to see it get represented!

Ryu Hayabusa: 50%
Rayman: 50%

Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer x5
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 20%
I'll try to keep it short. The series is one of the longest-standing indie franchises ever, still growing and known worldwide despite the lack of translation of earlier games, etc. The cult following is pretty strong and not just in Japan. It's also pretty much become the defining standard for the bullet hell genre. From a business standpoint, there certainly are better options... but again, quite a cult following especially in Japan. Nintendo might take that into consideration - they do like catering to their Japanese audience. Even if we don't get Reimu as a fighter, I'm 100% certain we'll at least get spirits, if not a mii costume (I don't really follow them so maybe we already have one?).

Want: 50%
I can see the potential but I'm not into bullet hells. Luckily for me, Smash isn't one so she wouldn't play the same. There's also a few Touhou fighting games out there to draw inspiration from.

Arle Nadja

Chance: 0%
The interview is pretty damning to me. Also, I keep reading that Puyo Puyo has that global influence and whatnot... I'd never seen a single Puyo Puyo game until last year. In the second-hand games box. And only remembered it because I'd read about it on this forum. Maybe it's just my country, maybe it's bigger in the USA? I don't know, but I certainly saw more Yakuza in my life than Puyo Puyo. The one time I saw a video about it, the youtuber described it as a rather obscure franchise, iirc. 28 million units sold for 25 games, that makes it around 1m copies per game. Not bad at all, in fact I wouldn't say obscure at that point, but there's been little marketing beside that. Contrast this to Yakuza getting books, films, dramas, etc... it's easy to see where Sega's priorities lie. Not even Project X Zone featured Arle. Hence my score.

Want: abstain
I don't know enough about Puyo Puyo. I'm sure we could use a magical girl rep and the puyo mechanics could be entertaining to say the least, but I'm not invested enough in the series to judge properly.

Predictions:
Ryu Hayabusa - 36%
Rayman - 12%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,515
Location
Drenthe, NL
Weeb Hell
Chance: 1%
I was originally thinking about abstaining on her again but Louie G. Louie G. does bring up a good point. It's no use to promote Touhou project when a majority of the official games aren't even localized or have an official translation. Does anybody here remember if the franchise was ever advertised by Nintendo in a Direct or even a standalone Tweet or YT video? I don't. I fail to see why she would be picked over characters who are more recognizable around the globe. Yes, I remember what Sakurai said in the Terry presentation but there's a reason we still don't have the likes of Takamaru playable. (pretty sure we wouldn't have Lucas as well if Sakurai had known about Mother 3 never leaving Japan) DLC characters especially should have some global appeal, and not have their popularity restricted to one specific part of the world.

Want: 0%
Touhou just does not look like a series I'd be able to get into. Over a dozen main series games with a billion spinoffs, most of them not in english and on a platform I don't game on? Sounds like some work for a series that's also considered quite high on difficulty and doesn't really appeal to me from a conceptual point.

Localized Weeb Hell
Chance: 55%
Would
it hypocritical to give Arle a high rating for Puyo Puyo being big in Japan when I thrashed Reimu for also just being mostly popular in her home country? Well Puyo Puyo atleast has a few big of its big releases officially localized and Puyo Puyo Tetris even made an appearance in a Direct where its Japanese popularity was mentioned. (also don't know how the Japanese popularity of Touhou and Puyo Puyo compare but PP might have the edge if this is true) That game also certainly helped certainly helped making Puyo Puyo more of a recognizable to western people who aren't forum dwellers. Being owned by a huge buisness partner, along with the non-english original Puyo Puyo famicom version being put on the western SNES online makes me think Nintendo cares far more about Puyo than Tuho. Certainly the likeliest option for another SEGA character imo.

Want: 60%
I picked up Puyo Puyo Tetris since we last rated her and its pretty fun. (tho 3 starring every level can be a bit of a pain) Helps that I was already familiar with its gameplay thanks to Mean Bean machine, which I might go back and try to beat now. Would also bring something new to the table, being a puzzle character who isn't Mario and all. I do hope they would have her bring along that Carby thing, that would definitely make her even more appealing. Part of me would still prefer Robotnik (which could conviniently also rep Puyo) but I doubt he's happening anyway.

Hayabusa: 43.65%
Rayman: 17.42%
Reporter and wrestler x5
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 21, 2013
Messages
8,769
Location
Rhythm Heaven
Contrast this to Yakuza getting books, films, dramas, etc... it's easy to see where Sega's priorities lie. Not even Project X Zone featured Arle.
Project X Zone didn't feature Sonic or Pac-Man either. Is Yakuza more important than Sonic? And I mean, let's be real, Yakuza is a series that lends itself more to the things that you listed, as it tells a much more serious and complex story. Puyo is a simple series, it's a goofy cartoon puzzle game.

I think the comments about the Puyo fighting game from a while back hold some weight, but I like to think Smash is almost always gonna be judged on its own merit. An entirely Puyo themed fighting game may be against the spirit of the series, but having one character make a guest appearance in a fighting game to represent that series is a bit of a different situation. I suggest you look into where Arle is initially from; Madou Monogatari is not quite the innocent happy game that Puyo is. Even if every other Puyo character is intended to be nonviolent, Arle in particular still has history behind her that implies otherwise.

Also not quite ready to sit down and talk about Arle yet but what I said here may imply I have some positive things to say about her.

1582478826131.png
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Project X Zone didn't feature Sonic or Pac-Man either. Is Yakuza more important than Sonic? And I mean, let's be real, Yakuza is a series that lends itself more to the things that you listed, as it tells a much more serious and complex story. Puyo is a simple series, it's a goofy cartoon puzzle game.

I think the comments about the Puyo fighting game from a while back hold some weight, but I like to think Smash is almost always gonna be judged on its own merit. An entirely Puyo themed fighting game may be against the spirit of the series, but having one character make a guest appearance in a fighting game to represent that series is a bit of a different situation. I suggest you look into where Arle is initially from; Madou Monogatari is not quite the innocent happy game that Puyo is. Even if every other Puyo character is intended to be nonviolent, Arle in particular still has history behind her that implies otherwise.

Also not quite ready to sit down and talk about Arle yet but what I said here may imply I have some positive things to say about her.

I meant Project X Zone as more of an example. A few big wigs to catch the eye but is otherwise comprised of smaller characters to grow public awareness of so it's no surprise its roster isn't the same as Smash's. That aside, I'm not aware of a lot of Puyo Puyo cameos. You say Yakuza lends itself more to what I listed, but couldn't Puyo Puyo go the Pokémon route? I'm not saying the series doesn't have the potential, clearly it does. I was more reflecting on Sega's intentions which seem to indicate being fine leaving Puyo Puyo where it is. If Sega wanted to, then yeah Puyo Puyo would be bigger and I'd see it in Smash... but that doesn't seem to be on their agenda is all I'm saying.
 
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3BitSaurus

Smash Master
Joined
May 6, 2019
Messages
4,298
Location
Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
Reimu
Chance: 10%
Right now, in my opinion, Reimu is the only indie with any chance of making it along maybe Quote. I think everyone has said what I was going to: Touhou is huge in Japan, practically a cultural phenomenon on its own, and would have a huge amount of support. Plus the fact that ZUN is working a lot closer to Nintendo now compared to the past. Problem is... its expansion to the west is relatively recent and unlike other Japan-centric picks, language barrier might still be a problem in Reimu's case.

Want: 70%
Not crazy high in my want list, but we still don't have a shmup representative, and I feel like Reimu could be a good candidate. Plus, the Touhou soundtrack has a very distinct style, and I for one would welcome it with open arms.

Arle
Chance: 40%
I'm personally not as confident in her as I was before. Let me say why:

First, I find it unlikely that we won't have any new companies in season 2. So in reality, with at least one slot going to a new contender, that leaves 5 slots. Add to that the fact that Capcom and Namco have no DLC yet (and it would be weird for them to get none) and the off chance of a first party pick... and that leaves, in the worst case scenario for Arle, two slots for the remaining third parties.

Now, I'm sure many of you will think I'm reading into this too much. Puyo is, after all, Sega's second biggest franchise. It has a presence on the Switch and is experiencing a kind of ressurgence, in a way. Arle is also in high demand in some japanese fan polls. And these factors are why I refuse to give her any lower than 40%. But if Resident Evil, of all franchises, got a Spirit Event, the same could potentially happen to Puyo Puyo. Let's not forget that Square Enix and Microsoft, for example, also have contenders to double dip for DLC.

Want: 100%
My 4th most wanted right now. Enough said. Not only would she be a true puzzle game rep, she has a lot of potential for interesting moves that combine her old Madou Monogatari references with her new Puyo moves. But I'm hoping for the best and preparing for the worst here. So, uh... sorry if I sound too pessimistic.

Predictions
Hayabusa: 43.5%
Rayman: 13.7%


Nominations
Ahri (League of Legends) x 5
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Reimu

Chance: 15%
Gonna quote this little snippet I wrote last time since not much as changed regarding what Reimu generally has going for her:

Touhou is fairly well-known around the globe and is especially popular in Japan with Sakurai supposedly being a fan of the shoot em' up genre. That said though, it is still a relatively niche series that primarily relies on fan translations to be where it is today. I can easily see Reimu/Touhou being represented through a Mii costume though I am not as confident as them being an actual character with indies as a whole still having to compete with bigger names.
Want: Abstain
Never played a Touhou game so I won't comment.

-----

Arle

Chance: 20%
For my chance score I'm just gonna quote what I wrote the last time we rated Arle back in November since nothing has really changed since then:

Puyo Puyo is pretty popular in Japan and has started to become more well-known in the West thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris. The falling block puzzle game genre hasn't really been explored in Smash that much, with the closest character relating to the genre being just Dr. Mario but he's mainly just there to be a Mario clone anyway. Any sort of Tetris character I view as deconfirmed with the Tetris spirits that were recently added, so when it comes to repping the genre I think the frontrunner is Arle. While we do have a fair amount of Sega characters already (even one in this pass in the form of Joker), I don't think it'd be that much of an issue for Arle since her series is nowhere near identical to the other characters. Honestly Arle doesn't really have anything going against her apart from having competition with much more popular characters.

As for that one article about the Puyo Puyo fighting game, I really don't think it'd pose that much trouble for Arle. Smash is one of the biggest games around so the people at Sega would have to be stupid to turn it down just because there is some kiddish fighting. There was probably more to that rejected idea instead of just "it'd be too violent;" at the very least I think they'd be alright with putting Arle in a spin-off game instead of making a full-fledged fighter. Heck, one of the major Puyo Puyo characters is named Satan who lives in a place called Puyo Hell. If the series can have that then I think they'd be fine with putting Arle in a fighter that went out of their way to omit the "hell" in the DK rap.

In short, she's got a fair amount of things going for her and I don't think that one article about a rejected Puyo Puyo fighting game really affects her chances.

Want: 80%
The Puyo Puyo series is super fun and Puyo Puyo Tetris in particular is incredibly addicting. Arle herself is a super colorful character so I'd be totally down for her to make it in. Want score would be a tad higher, however there is another preferred choice I have when it comes to another Sega character getting into Smash (hint: check out the News section of SmashBoards tomorrow morning).

Rayman chance prediction: 3.11% (Ubisoft Mii costumes releasing alongside Byleth does not help his already low chances)
Hayabusa chance prediction: 28.72%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
 
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Meteorite

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I meant Project X Zone as more of an example. A few big wigs to catch the eye but is otherwise comprised of smaller characters to grow public awareness of so it's no surprise its roster isn't the same as Smash's. That aside, I'm not aware of a lot of Puyo Puyo cameos. You say Yakuza lends itself more to what I listed, but couldn't Puyo Puyo go the Pokémon route? I'm not saying the series doesn't have the potential, clearly it does. I was more reflecting on Sega's intentions which seem to indicate being fine leaving Puyo Puyo where it is. If Sega wanted to, then yeah Puyo Puyo would be bigger and I'd see it in Smash... but that doesn't seem to be on their agenda is all I'm saying.
In the West, yes, Yakuza is bigger (despite being a lot more "Japanese")

In Japan, Puyo Puyo is bigger. It has cameos in other Sega properties like Phantasy Star Online 2, Project DIVA, and Yakuza itself.
 
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