Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 383: Lloyd Irving (Tales) and KOS-MOS (Xenosaga)

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I’d made a mistake on a previous day, but now it’s fixed.

100-51

Arle Nadja x70
Boss: Kracko x60
Grovyle x55

50-25

Rhythm Girl x50
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x50
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x40
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x40
Nero Claudius (Fate) x40
Kat & Ana x40
Lora (Xenoblade) x35
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x35
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x35
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x35
Mach Rider x35
Concept: More DLC x30
Reaper (Overwatch) x30
Professor Hector x30
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25

Under 25

Impa x22
9-Volt x20
Thrall (Warcraft) x20
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x20
Hollow Knight x15
Reimu Hakurei x15
Creeper x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Papyrus x10
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Ninten x5
Concept: Bethesda rep x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Grovyle cuts past 50 noms.

Today’s sole new concept is Bethesda rep, with 5 nominations.
 
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Bruh... look at this DOOD! <Click this

OH LOOK AT THE TOP OF HIS HEAD!

Chance: Abstain.
Want: 50%

I've always felt indifferent towards Rayman. He's never interested me too much as a character, but I do remember the legendary Artsy Omni Artsy Omni leak, and that's what made me start watching his videos. Rayman's fanbase started to grow more and more for Smash Bros after that, and if he got in, I wouldn't mind. I would be happy for his fans and his supporters that tried really hard to get him in.

Predictions: Steve 75%
Toxicity levels: 80%

Nominations: Reaper x5
 
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RileyXY1

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Rayman

Chance: 60%
Ubisoft and Nintendo have a very good relationship. However, Rayman is obscure in Japan.

Want: 40%
He seems cool, but I'm not really interested in him.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5
 

SupriceSupplies

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Rayman:
Chance: 95%
Alright, maybe I'm overestimating Rayman's chances, but god damn am I confident in this one. Rayman's got everything going for him. Nintendo's relationship with Ubisoft as well as the latter handling certain Nintendo IP's, Rabbids spirits already being in the game, Nintendo proposing characters etc. For DLC, being a third party is an automatic boost in chance in my book. Rayman is the one character I'd be damn surprised by if he doesn't make it in, especially since he already had a trophy in 4, and I'd at least expect him as a spirit.
...That being said, all the circumstantial evidence in the world doesn't have to mean anything if Shantae and Bandana Dee are any indication (both of whom have been shown as spirits, and as someone who believes they're deconfirmations, that's not a good sign). That 5% is there for a reason. Not counting on said 5%, but it's there.

Want: 90%
My second most wanted third party after Phoenix Wright. I've been playing through Rayman Origins as of late and it's a damn fun game. And I've heard Legends is even better. I've also seen some footage from his powerups in Rayman 3 so the moveset potential is definitely there.
 

aarchak

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Y'all heads up, if you haven't seen this before, Elma and Bandanna Waddle Dee are spirits. Look at around 6:17 in this video.
Anyways,

Rayman

Chance: 0%
Nope. Rayman isn't happening. First off he's a third party, so there go all his chances. Second, even if Nintendo WERE considering third parties (which I highly doubt), Rayman is almost as low as Shantae on that list, under the likes of Travis Touchdown, Phoenix Wright, Steve (I'm not kidding), Banjo-Kazooie, and even Sora.
Want: 0%
I know people don't like the Rabbids, but I've never liked Rayman himself. I played some of Rayman Legends, and it really didn't appeal to me. All the stages felt the same, Rayman himself was goofy, but lacked actual personality, and the platforming was okay at best. I don't even think he'd play uniquely, he'd just play like Mario but with more range. I understand if you do like him, but I really don't.

Nominations
Lora x5
 
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CaptainAmerica

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Let's see what I had before...
Rayman

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

A third party I have no attachment to in the slightest...Nothing that interests me. I even knew about Bayonetta as a character. Rayman...literally who?

I think most of the hype for Rayman comes from two sources: the 'leak' last game, and the trophy in game. I think the trophy was odd, since there was really no reference to the game elsewhere (e.g. a stage), which made it unique as a 3rd party trophy went (but does open the door for 3rd party trophies now, which I do think is cool). Still, I've never heard about the series until I saw it.

There was definitely a lot of hype generated from the fake leak, but no more than is generated for fake leaks of other characters. That one make such an impact because it was well done and believable in the first place.

Doesn't Rayman have the same series as the Rabbids? And the Rabbids made a game with Mario et al, but was Rayman out of that? Would the Rabbids be more appropriate? Or am I way off base here? Like I said, I don't think he's as pervasive a character as people expect.
I'll keep most of this. I'll still say that I've never even heard of Rayman until the trophy dropped for Sm4sh, so I don't consider him a Mario- or Sonic-level icon.

The news of a Rabbid Peach spirit is interesting, and I definitely thing there's some likelihood there. Because of that, I'll bump him in chance. Still, I don't know him, so there are loads of other characters I'd prefer to see first.

Chance: 25%
Want: 0%

Nom: More DLC x5
 

zferolie

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I'm pretty sure she's scheduled.
If so maybe I missed her name. My bad.

As for Rayman.

CHance: 75%

GIven how close Ubisoft anf Nintendo have been these past years, it would really surprise me that we don't get a Ubisoft rep, and Rayman would be the best choice as the face of the company. His moveset shouldn't be anything hard after Sakurai made Pirahna plant.

Want: 75%

I want him. never been a huge rayman fan but love his design and I feel he would fit right in with the rest of the cast

Nom:
Shantae if she's not on the list, otherwise Slime from Dragon Quest x5
 
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Dustin Hoffman

On chance: Actually not too shabby. Nintendo and Ubisoft seem to be buddy buds (or at least are definitely playing it up). Mario+Rabbids and Starlink prove they are up for collabs, and Ubisoft has given decent support to Nintendo consoles (particularly through Rayman games). Worth noting that Ubisoft isn’t credited, so the Rabbids Spirits are actually probably owned by Nintendo (or maybe they just don’t credit for Spirits, is WayForward credited?)

Either way, this could create the perfect storm of corporate synergy and genuine fan desire that could lead to Rayman getting in.

Want: To be honest, I never really got into Rayman. Rayman’s always seemed pretty generic to me and so has his world, so while I have played a couple of games, I don’t consider myself a fan. Still, I hope he eventually makes it in, he has a pretty decent following.

Right now I’m asking myself: is Rayman a gaming icon? I’d be glad if you guys could give your opinion on that.

Edit: forgot the Want score, I’ll give him 77%

Nominations: Mach RiderX5
 
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Rayman-

Chance: 20%
The absence of a Rayman spirit doesn't mean much IMO, we probably just haven't seen it. If we do see it, I don't think that disconfirms him either. What I do think is that Nintendo is going to focus much more on 1st parties and fan demand, and Rayman isn't exactly topping any charts for most requested.

Want: 10%
I played that one demo thing on Wii U, that was super fun. I don't really like his design though. I'd much rather have 1st parties.

Steve prediction: 69%

Nominating Rhythm Girl x5
 

Klimax

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Rayman

Chance: 50%
While Ubisoft and Nintendo are close, I'm not sure about Rayman's chances. I feel like he could get in but I'm clearly not sure about it. In my opinion, that's just a coin toss. I do not think that the rabbids are a threat. He's popular and iconic, he definitely has a chance !

Want: 100%
One of my most wanted. However, I gotta say that I would prefer his personality from the original trilogy because I hated Origins and Legends.
 
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Rayman:
Chance:66%: He's really l likely due to Nintendo and Ubisoft being really chummy. He still could not be in the game tho.
Want:75%: I do main him in Brawlhalla. I wou!e prefer him to many characters, but not my most wanted.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5 , Mach Rider x5
 

CaptainAmerica

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Let's see what I had before...

I'll keep most of this. I'll still say that I've never even heard of Rayman until the trophy dropped for Sm4sh, so I don't consider him a Mario- or Sonic-level icon.

The news of a Rabbid Peach spirit is interesting, and I definitely thing there's some likelihood there. Because of that, I'll bump him in chance. Still, I don't know him, so there are loads of other characters I'd prefer to see first.

Chance: 25%
Want: 0%

Nom: More DLC x5
WAIT A SEC...

I'm updating this score

I'm on team "Spirits are a bad sign," so this is looking interesting...

I don't want to take chance down too much, so I'll just go to 15% chance instead.
 

AirMac1

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Rayman
Chance:60%-A lot of people want him (Really, just take a look for yourself). And, due to Nintendo and Ubisoft’s recent partnership, it seems like the time is now.

Want:60%-I have a Rayman game for my 3ds, and I didn’t like it. But I do want his fans to be happy, so that’s why I gave him a 60%.

Nominations:9-volt x5
 
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Rayman:

Chance: 1%. He's a spirit, so he's deconfirmed. Also, there was/is also the possibility that the Rabbids are chosen over him, considering Mario+Rabbids is a thing, and he's on the same level with them at best, even if Sprits don't deconfirm.

Want: 40%. I'm starting to sound like a broken record. I don't care for him, but I understand that there are many who do. I would also consider even one fan favorite getting in as a win for the DLC.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x5 (While it's subjective, it's looking really likely...)
 

PeridotGX

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Rayman

Chance : 45%. Spirits don't matter. Anyways Ubisoft's been very friendly with Nintendo recently, so Rayman seems very likely. They could go with Rabbids, but I feel Sakurai would prefer Rayman due to (presumably) much higher ballot results.

Want: Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5
 

Sid-cada

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Rayman

Chance - 40% - Geeze, they are really making everyone a spirit... at this point we don't have enough info to say one way or another if a spirit should be taken as a discomfirmation. For now, I'll treat it as a mark, but not a total wipe. As for Rayman himself? Ubisoft is on good terms with Nintendo, and Rayman is their mascot. He has some clout, and while not a true standout he is heavily associated with Nintendo these days. I currently think he has the best shot of any third party who isn't from a company already represented.

Want - 60% - I had fun playing Rayman Legends. While he might be a bit bland, I do think he's a good idea.

Predictions

Steve - 60% - Oh boy...

Nominations

Arle Nadja X5
 
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Nemuresu

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Rayman
Chance: 10%-Rayman's been a guy with bad luck in Smash to be honest. Didn't make it into Brawl, got turned into a trophy in Smash 4 while Ryu and Cloud get to have all the benefits of a playable character, and now in Ultimate? Turned into a spirit. He's that nice guy that never gets any better no matter how hard he tries.
Want: 60%-He's fine on my end. Played some of his games, enjoyed them. Sadly though, he's never been someone I desired much.
Nominations: All-guests Passx5
 
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Ray Man

Chance: 15%. Sure he's a potential candidate for DLC as he had a trophy last game, but I just don't see it. There's also been reports he may be a spirit. The DLC has been decided during development so it doesn't bode well for those with spirits that use their default name. In fact they're consolation prizes to me.

Want: 5%. Nah not interested in him. I have no attachment to his series so meh.

Nominate Concept: All DLC are 3rd Party x5
 
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Rayman

Chance - 40%

Ubisoft and Nintendo have been on very friendly terms recently. Extremely very friendly terms.

Whether it be Mario + Rabbids being a huge success, Starlink crossing over with Star Fox, or Rabbid Peach and Rabbid Kong appearing as Spirits, not only is it extremely evident that both Nintendo and Ubisoft are more than willing to work together, but are also more than willing to work together in Smash. The complete lack of any Rayman Spirits, or anything else, such as music tracks, appearances as an Assist Trophy, etc., also kind of lead me to believe that he may just be pushed off into being DLC, although there are still many more spirits yet to be revealed.

Want - ABSTAIN

I like Rayman. While I'm not a huge Rayman fan or anything, he definitely has the qualifications to get in. I'll leave this score to people who have stronger feelings on him than I do. Let's hope that if we're getting a Ubisoft character, it'll be him and not the Rabbids.
Updating my score because Rayman is indeed a spirit.

Chance - 1%

I'm a pretty stark believer of the idea that "spirits mean deconfirmation unless we have legitimate proof otherwise," so I'm not holding my breath anymore. In my book, the guy (and every other spirit, including the also newly deconfirmed Bandana Waddle Dee) are doneso unless we see a spirit turned into a fighter for DLC.

Still abstaining on want.
 
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Rayman:

Chance: 25% - Nintendo and Ubisoft have a good relationship, so they could possibly get a playable character in Smash Bros. However, we could also get a Rabbid or something, or no playable character, so I don't know, but he does have a decent shot. I also don't think Spirits disconfirm characters, because it's actually just that the devs do whatever the heck they want (see: Chrom's playable status, final smash status, and mii costume status), and I honestly find the whole "Spirits disconfirm characters 100% no questions asked" route some people have taken to be quite annoying, considering that they're basically glorified stickers and all these disconfirmation theories are getting annoying in general (seriously the theories are fine but stop acting like everything is 100% disconfirmed, jeez).

Want: Abstain - I don't really care, as I have no experience with the character's games aside from a Raving Rabbids game (and Rabbids Go Home or whatever it was, but that's not a Rayman game so eh), however his design does make him look like he could be fun.

Predictions:

Steve?: 50%

Nominations:

Ninten x3
Creeper x2
 
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Troykv

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If everyone that is a Spirit is disconfirmed; that would mean that pretty much all the DLC are Third Parties without Nintendo Story and Characters still in early development (8th Gen Pokemon)... Okay that is a exageration but you get the idea.

Embrace Sora and Steve everyone xD
 
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If everyone that is a Spirit is disconfirmed; that would mean that pretty much all the DLC are Third Parties without Nintendo Story and Characters still in early development (8th Gen Pokemon)... Okay that is a exageration but you get the idea.

Embrace Sora and Steve everyone xD
That's what been I've been predicting, even without the spirits. Guest DLC sells much better than 1st party characters and adding 1st characters as DLC to promote new games is also very common.
 
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Yeah, I'm sorry, but there are only 5 characters who are gonna break the 50% mark in terms of chance score:

Byleth (FE: 3 Houses)
Gen 8 Pokemon (We still need to find out who tho)
Steve
Katalina
Eldrick (Dragon Quest)

I'd elaborate, but I don't want to talk about any of them before their rate day comes.
 
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Sari

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Yeah, I'm sorry, but there are only 5 characters who are gonna break the 50% mark in terms of chance score:

Byleth (FE: 3 Houses)
Gen 8 Pokemon (We still need to find out who tho)
Steve
Katalina
Eldrick (Dragon Quest)

I'd elaborate, but I don't want to talk about any of them before their rate day comes.
Didn't Hitagi come forward and say they were misinformed about the second person in your spoiler list?
 
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Just a warning, not only was her name (Arle Nadja) misspelled, but you didn't set any amount (such as x 5). Sorry if this comes across as nit-picky.

Yeah, right now I kinda would be willing to drop Paper Mario and Geno if it meant Arle had a greater chance, but I still won't get PM or Geno. Plus, there's no guarantee that there isn't just a coincidentally unseen Puyo Puyo spirit, so I won't brag too hard.

DLC is probs going to be primarily third parties, though I could see a single first party slipping through the cracks.
 
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To further explain my stance on Spirits, I'm honestly just sorta tired of all the theories and fan-rules being pushed as 100% set in stone, even if some seem likely, because as I said it feels annoying (especially when someone comes and says "sorry but your favorite isn't gonna be playable because he's a Spirit; come, I'll get you some tea while I explain how this isn't just some theory and is a fact while you let out your tears"). I also really only care about this one because of Geno, but to be fair I guess he's not actually confirmed to be a Spirit yet so this theory does nothing to him...

inb4 Piranha Plant is a Spirit before the DLC releases.
 
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I think so, but I'm pretty sure Verge said that they might still be in.
Verge has heard nothing about Granblue from his sources last I checked.

If he said Katalina may still be in, it's because he doesn't like disconfirming nor confirming things unless he's 100% sure about them (or maybe something from the Hitagi guy and what he said about the negotiations that Verge feels like considering).
 
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Rayman
Chance: N/A
Considering recent events, I'm not sure how to rate him. While I don't think Spirit = never playable ever, ths is a third party character we're talking about.
Want: 75%
I'm a fan of the series and have wanted him in for a while. He's another character that would fit pretty well in Smash.
Him being in would also prevent the Minions from being playable, so that's a bonus.

Inspector Gadget prediction: 70%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5
 
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SPEN18

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Rayman
Chance: 30%
I've soured on him recently with the Spirit confirmation and him not being as hugely massive an announcement as some other third parties would be. But Nintendo and Ubisoft have been pretty buddy-buddy recently so he still has a chance.

Want: 30%
No huge personal attachment to him. He's cool and popular, though; also, Ubisoft could use a rep. So I'd actually be happy to see him but the bar is set pretty high for me when it comes to third parties.
 
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