Lip
Chance: 0.01%
Want: 100%
Undeniably my most-wanted character, Lip is an incredibly unlikely newcomer because she's obscure, Japan-only, lacks any meaningful recent appearances, isn’t from a massively-successful franchise, and doesn't represent any important part of Nintendo's history.
I doubt her inclusion could be justified in the first place. Other Japan-only characters have been added before, but these have always been
a matter of circumstance. Characters have been added despite the fact that they were Japan-only for their own specific reasons. Fire Emblem was important enough in Japan for
to be added in Melee.
was a special case because of Mother 3’s lengthy development period. There’s the idea that she could be a retro rep, but I'd argue that she wouldn't fit that role because
the Puzzle League franchise isn’t retro. Puzzle League has had releases on the SNES, Gameboy, N64, GBA, Gamecube, and DS. The 3DS even technically counts since Animal Crossing got a Puzzle League minigame added as DLC. Lip not having a recent appearance in the series doesn’t make her a candidate for a retro choice. In fact, I’d argue it hurts her chances of appearing even more as it just makes her another character that is no longer relevant to their own franchise. It’s the same thing many argue is going against the inclusion of
King K. Rool and
Krystal.
A common argument in support of her is content from Panel de Pon being in Smash. Admittedly, in the past, I felt her acknowledgement in Smash meant anything for her potential inclusion, but it's become obvious how barely relevant to her chances these things actually are. Lip's Stick was added in Melee introducing the flower effect, which has since become a Smash staple mechanic. It’s utilized in several custom moves, Assist Trophies, an option for Special Smash, and more. Lip's Stick has only needed to stay around to carry the effect. It may as well be more associated with Smash than Lip, since the only way it traces back to Panel de Pon is that it has Lip's name on it. Her Garbage Block appears as a Kirby transformation, but it's merely a visual callback added in Melee and doesn't mean much for her chances at all. Lip's Theme, again, barely indicates anything for her chances when every game from Clu Clu Land to Shin Onigashima was able to get music in Brawl.
I’m probably the only person that feels this way, but one of the biggest hits to her chances is that
there’s been no content that demonstrates a deeper understanding of Lip as a character.
Takamaru and
the Prince of Sable were very lucky to get the opportunity of being Assist Trophies; At the time, the two were Japan-only characters, yet the developers still put in the effort to get to know more about their games and the characters themselves.
It showed that there was enough interest in their source material to have them physically appear on the battlefield using abilities faithful to their original game appearances, that there was a genuine understanding what the characters are capable of and how their abilities could be translated into Smash. My point is that this definitely shows more dedication to a character than just having their main weapon available as an item, and makes me seriously doubt Sakurai or any of the developers care enough about Lip to even be considering her.
Her chances may have already been dead in the water since the beginning, but I personally feel the undeniable nail in the coffin for her was
Animal Crossing Puzzle League. Characters that don’t have a future are rarely considered for Smash, and AC Puzzle League feels like Nintendo’s way of flat-out openly saying, “we’re not bringing this character back.” It made it absolutely clear that there’s no desire to bring the franchise back to its roots, leaving Lip to continue being shafted in the foreseeable future. Even if Sakurai doesn’t know for sure if the characters he adds will necessarily make appearances in future games, I don’t see why he would go out of his way to consider a character that has been so visibly rejected and clearly unwanted by Nintendo at every turn.
I would unironically sooner bet on getting allegedly “impossible” characters like
Banjo-Kazooie,
Sora, and
Goku. All of them have
widespread appeal and
are important to Nintendo and/or gaming to some degree. Lip on the other hand has done nothing for Nintendo nor gaming and would only appeal to anyone in Japan who somehow remembers her and the small handful of people outside Japan that know her. I was going to rate her 0, but she’s objectively been acknowledged by the developers three times, though since the representation she's gotten is so paltry, it means virtually nothing for her potential inclusion.
Nominations: Wonder Red x5
