Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 357: Quote (Cave Story)

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
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1,485
Ryota Hayami

Chance - 0.05% - An uniconic, not really that imporrtant retro who is lacking in both popularity and seming moveset potential. Being a spirit on top of all this really puts a nail in the coffin, doesn't it?

Want - 25% - Really couldn't care less. With roster space so limited, I don't feel like we have the space for him right now.


Nominations

Vaati X5
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
Is Wave Race even relevant any more?

Chance: 1%
Everything that I was going to say has been said already. Already a spirit, first-party, dead franchise, more competition from other series, even other series that could be considered dead like Advance Wars or Golden Sun.


Want: 10%
I'm completely unfamiliar with the guy, but unlike other characters, I don't particularly want him either way. Leave the 'completely improbable racing game series rep' to Captain "Never getting a sequel" Falcon.


Noms: Yuri Lowell x5
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Wave Race guy

Chance: 0.5% - As others have stated, his chances are almost nonexistent. The only thing really going for him is that he's first-party.

Want: 50% - I think he has the potential to be pretty neat. They made Captain Falcon's moveset from scratch, so I think they do something interesting for Ryota Hayami too. Heck, I could even see him being another Falcondorf-esque clone but with the fire/magic effects being replaced with water.

Nominations:
Frogger x5
 

Icedragonadam

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Ryota

Chance: 0.01%

-Do I need to say it again?
-1st party, obscure, not an enticing DLC character.

Want: 0%

-Yada yada
-Same reason for my previous ratings.

Nominate DLC Challenges x5
 

PapillonXtreme

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Messages
126
Ryota Hayami

Chance: 1%
Like everyone said here, he's a first-party character from a dead franchise, so his chances are quite low compare to other first-party characters. He also appeared as a spirit, so that already makes his chances non-existent. Like I said, we're getting mostly third-party characters as DLC, so this doesn't really help him in the long run.

Want: 5%
I was gonna give this a 0% want, but after looking at him and his games, I kinda liked it a bit. That being said, there are other characters that I would prioritize first before him and most of them are third-party characters anyway, so yeah, he's pretty low on the list.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5
 

PeridotGX

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Wave Racer.

Chance: 0%. Today was literally the first time I heard his name. He's about as "literallyh who" as it gets.

Want: Abstain. I've never played Wave Race.

Noms: X x5
 

Nemuresu

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Wave Race guy:
Chance: 0%-Dead series. Not a third-party character. Already a spirit.
Want: 0%-I looked into gameplay for both WR64 and Blue Storm (Ryota's game), and I just don't feel convinced of it at all. Honestly, not too interested in scratch-made movesets, since they can go in so many ways, so no reason to feel sure he will be fun.
Nominations: Morrigan x5
 

Flyboy

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Something I'm finding very interesting about all this is the generational disconnect.

Wave Race 64 was the third game ever created for the N64 and it was one of those games that everyone had, or at least your friend sure did. Even today if you walk into a used game store you're guaranteed to find a copy of it because it really sold that well. To a certain generation of gamers it absolutely is iconic if just for nostalgia purposes. Blue Storm is similar as well, as it was a GameCube launch title. As launch titles they were both pushed hard in ads and magazines and it helped they were both really popular games.

If you think about it, Wave Race as a series really is no different from Advance Wars or Golden Sun or any other similar series. The only difference is timing and genre. Popular games, three of them, and dormant series.

In the Smash fandom, certain series' get remembered because of reasons like nostalgia (I've noticed GBA games get this a lot) and so their names are always on people's lips. However, the bandwagon effect is real when it comes to a lot of these characters and too often the Smash fandom is shortsighted and sees characters as the be-all and end-all when many series, especially unrepped ones like Wave Race, have so much more to offer than just a water-based Falcon clone (which would totally be sick c'mon guys). Stages, music, assist trophies, it's all valid representation.

Like I said, I know that nowadays Wave Race and 1080 Snowboarding aren't exactly on everyone's minds and I even started supporting Ryota for fun because I knew no one was talking about him, but I still do find it interesting how few newer gamers have even bothered to go back and experience this interesting slice of Nintendo EAD, a series that revolutionized modern 3D water physics, while still placing their stake for characters and series' arguably just as obscure only because they're the Smash Favorites (tm).

The other interesting thing I notice in this thread is how vitriolic people are when it comes to characters they've personally never heard of. For everyone thinking outside the box you have a whole host of people hitting you up with the ol' "literally who" in this weird smug manner. I don't understand it. But hey, that's life.

I dunno. This thread is just fun and interesting when it comes to stuff like this.
 
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Something I'm finding very interesting about all this is the generational disconnect.

Wave Race 64 was the third game ever created for the N64 and it was one of those games that everyone had, or at least your friend sure did. Even today if you walk into a used game store you're guaranteed to find a copy of it because it really sold that well. To a certain generation of gamers it absolutely is iconic if just for nostalgia purposes. Blue Storm is similar as well, as it was a GameCube launch title. As launch titles they were both pushed hard in ads and magazines and it helped they were both really popular games.

If you think about it, Wave Race as a series really is no different from Advance Wars or Golden Sun or any other similar series. The only difference is timing and genre. Popular games, three of them, and dormant series.

In the Smash fandom, certain series' get remembered because of reasons like nostalgia (I've noticed GBA games get this a lot) and so their names are always on people's lips. However, the bandwagon effect is real when it comes to a lot of these characters and too often the Smash fandom is shortsighted and sees characters as the be-all and end-all when many series, especially unrepped ones like Wave Race, have so much more to offer than just a water-based Falcon clone (which would totally be sick c'mon guys). Stages, music, assist trophies, it's all valid representation.

Like I said, I know that nowadays Wave Race and 1080 Snowboarding aren't exactly on everyone's minds and I even started supporting Ryota for fun because I knew no one was talking about him, but I still do find it interesting how few newer gamers have even bothered to go back and experience this interesting slice of Nintendo EAD, a series that revolutionized modern 3D water physics, while still placing their stake for characters and series' arguably just as obscure only because they're the Smash Favorites (tm).

The other interesting thing I notice in this thread is how vitriolic people are when it comes to characters they've personally never heard of. For everyone thinking outside the box you have a whole host of people hitting you up with the ol' "literally who" in this weird smug manner. I don't understand it. But hey, that's life.

I dunno. This thread is just fun and interesting when it comes to stuff like this.
This. Sometimes games are popular and iconic, and people still need to be educated about it. There's nothing wrong with that, but it would help if people were open to being wrong sometimes.
 
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Some dood
Chance: 0%
Want 40%

-Dead series
-Character's name is obscure despite selling really well on the N64
-Is a spirit that appears on my spirit board nonstop

Uninteresting character that would make a somewhat meh impression if announced. "Oh yeah, that's the wave race guy! Yay?" It took me quite a while to get to rating because I just didn't care about the character. It's like asking for the Baseball Player from the NES title "Baseball" in my opinion, but Ryota at least has a name. Also doesn't have much moveset potential outside of driving a jet ski on someone's face. Then again, if you need anyone to think outside the box, Sakurai is the man for the job.

Style Savvy: 1.73% (What?)

Tetromino x5

This thread suddenly became extremely inactive. Would bump it but I won't because of a double post. TCT~Phantom TCT~Phantom new day?
 
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Sari

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Style Savvy rep

Chance: 2%
Another one of Nintendo's more niche series that unlike Wave Race has gotten numerous games released in recent years. I know Style Savvy has a following but its still a relatively small Nintendo series that has a ton of competition in the form of both third party and first party characters.

Want: 25%
Never got into the series though I could kind of get behind this. I think this would work great as a totally left-field choice like WFT.

-----

Hat Kid

Chance: 0%
The creators of A Hat in Time flat out deconfirmed her on twitter. You really can't get more of a deconfirmation than that. She honestly didn't have a chance at all considering how AHiT is a really recent indie title that wasn't even on a Nintendo console when the DLC lineup was decided (and the Switch port still hasn't released as of this writing).

Want: 80%
If you haven't played A Hat in Time yet, PLAY IT AS SOON AS YOU CAN! This game is amazing and perfectly captures that Nintendo 3D-platformer feel. It takes a ton of inspiration from Super Mario Sunshine in particular and Hat Kid would fit into Smash perfectly.

-----

No fan favorite/highly requested characters chance prediction: 31.59%

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5
 
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Girly dlc
Chance: 0.01%
It may not be a dead/dying series but a character from those would not be profitable at all. A character like that is basically the opposite of what would make the casual audience take out their wallets. I don't really see Style Savvy's demographic line up with people who would buy Smash DLC. You'd also make a lot of people unhappy, both hardcore fans who wanted fan favourites and casual people who want more 'cool' characters like Joker.


Want: 0%
I belong in that first group. No way I'd be okay with goddamn Style Savvy of all things being one of, if not the only first-party dlc. I'm safe to say I'm never going to play a game in that series.


No one around to help
Chance: 0%
Okay, even if we ignore her developers blatantly giving away she's not in, I still would give her a near zero. Porting Hat in time likely happened to late to influence the DLC choices anyway. Let's also not forget she's indie and the way more popular and demanded indie character, Shovel Knight got to be an AT at most, making playable Hat kid a fantasy. There's only one indie series I think stands a decent chance, two if you still count Minecraft as indie.


Want: 0%
Haven't played Hat in time. Also she'd be competition to Hollow Knight, who I much rather want.


No fan favourites: 29.79%
Metal Sonic x5
 

Flyboy

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started at the bottom now the whole team here

Hat Kid
Chance:
Abstain
The creators have hard deconfirmed her. Unfortunately, that's just how it be sometimes. Gotta take their word for it.

Want: 25%
A Hat In Time was cute. I'm a big Mario Sunshine guy and you can really tell how much influence there was put into this game. It's very well-designed, glitches aside, and it's bursting with personality. Hat Kid would have a lot of fun moves because of the badges you can equip and she's a cute character. However, she's not higher than other indy reps I'm behind like Hollow Knight or Quote or even Sans, and I'm a little leery of some of the things the devs have said about Nintendo in the past. Not that that should really affect how I feel about a character's playability but, eh. I don't know if I'm going to pick the game up when it comes to Switch. It's worth a play on PS4 and again it's a very charming game with some great stages - I love the penguin movie studio especially - and music. Wouldn't be against her, but not my first pick.

Concept: Style Savvy Rep
Chance:
5%
Hey, at least it's not an auto-deconfirm due to Spirits because the only Style Savvy Spirit in the game is Shop Assistant from the first game. There are three other games with nothing, even if Trendsetters and Styling Star got music tracks. Still, it's not very likely and I recognize that. There WAS a rumor going around when the game first was datamined that Ring A Ding had blank stage data associated with it, but I haven't heard anything since so I'm just going to assume that was a hoax so I don't get my hopes up. I just don't see them going for such an outside pick for DLC, unless we're about to get Style Savvy Switch It Up (please).

Want: 100%+
My most-wanted first-party.

"Really?" you may ask. And to that I say "Really!". More than Elma, more than Captain Toad, more than any other first-party, I want a Style Savvy rep in Smash. First off, the reason I say "Style Savvy rep" is because while the character they'd go for is absolutely a customizable Stylist protagonist (with multiple outfits like the Inklings? Yes please), my personal favorite rep from the games would be Sophie from Style Savvy Fashion Forward. She's my favorite character. But I digress.

For those who don't know, Style Savvy (also called Nintendo Presents: Style Boutique in Europe and Girl's Mode in Japan) is a first-party series that started on the Nintendo DS and continued to the 3DS with the latest game in the series released in 2017. There are four games in the series so far: the original, Trendsetters, Fashion Forward, and Styling Star.

The series is developed by Syn Sophia, the former AKI Corporation, creators of some of the greatest classic wrestling games of all time (WWF No Mercy in particular). Funny, huh? That was one of the things that made me check it out; it's no secret I'm a huge wrestling game fan, and also this series has INCREDIBLE reception. Like, seriously, in Japan it spent ages on the New First Party charts and consistently places well with each new game. In Europe and the US each game is consistently well-received.

Anyway, after learning all this I decided to try the series myself. The original was cute but a little shallow in places, but Fashion Forward is where it all clicked. It's a shockingly good business simulation absolutely bursting with content, color, and fun things to do. It has great music (shoutouts to Girls Be Ambitious from Styling Star) and I found myself sinking hours into it because it just put a smile on my face.

So, where does Smash tie into this?

Well, Smash itself puts a smile on my face too! To me, the biggest strength of Smash is the variety and fun each character and series brings to the battle. I adore Wii Fit and every time I do Wii Fit Trainer's final smash I can't help but laugh because I recognize that exact voice clip she uses from my time playing a ton of Wii Fit in college. And Style Savvy is a series and demographic not yet represented in Smash with an art style - shoujo manga - that would bring variety and fun into Smash with a super unique character!

Over at the Style Savvy thread we've discussed a lot of ways a Style Savvy character could be among the most unique additions to the roster, with things like a pummel that applies makeup to the opponent, different clothes providing stat boosts, movements that are like a runway model doing magazine poses, attacks that have to do with the pop songs in the latest game, and more. The amount of moves in her arsenal is almost limitless and just fun to consider. A fashion model from a Nintendo first-party mixing it up with other gaming icons is just great to think about, and you know the fanart of her giving Nintendo characters fashionable outfits would be hilarious.

Simply put, Style Savvy is a fantastic series that surprised me by being fun, deep, and humorous, and having roster variety that could appeal to a whole new demographic and represent a DS game at the same time would really be great. Don't just write off these games - they have the pedigree to stand alongside the greats in Smash, and clearly Sakurai and the gang agree considering Evie got a trophy in Smash 4 and music was added both last game and this game.

We don't have a shoujo character in Smash. She'd make a great unique contrast to everyone else on the roster and there's no one who can even compare. So please think about it!

Nominations: Tracer x5
 
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Headgear Small Person

Chance: 0%
Disconfirmed, ooooohhh! (For maximum effect read this with Andrew Dice Clay's voice).

Want: 30%
Her game looks fun and creative, but she's s not iconic, and that's what I want third parties to be. Who knows, maybe A Hat in Time becomes a mainstay indie franchise and HK becomes iconic, but until that happens I say no to her in Smash.

I was going to make a joke here but it was super inappropriate.

Chance: 5%
Actually one of the series I could see Nintendo going for DLC, if only because it doesn't have all its big characters disconfirmed by Spirits. Plus it actually continues to sell, yet could reasonably use the promotion (especially if Nintendo wants to level it up from C-status on the Switch).

Want: 100%
Sometimes I guess people don't understand that not everybody plays the same games as they do. Casual games are a big part of Nintendo's DNA, and characters like Kawashima, Dr. Lobe and Wii Fit Trainer are just as valid as representatives of Nintendo and gaming history. And give Nintendo credit, those games have actual personality and characters and charm when they could have just as easily been a minimalist UI and nothing else.

Going specifically for Style Savvy, it sells. It has its fans. So even if personally you don't actively want it, like WFT, you have to acknowledge that it earns its place in Smash. And really, think of the pros! We probably get a unique character, both in looks and moveset, a stage, some great tunes, and maybe we even show Nintendo that we're willing to spring out cash for one of their properties instead of pure third parties. That's a victory to me.

Noms: Kyle Hyde x5
 
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Hat Kid: Abstain, because her creators just straight up axed her for this game (hopefully none for the future).

Style Savvy Rep
Chance
: IDK
Want: 80%

I tried demos for the Style Savvy games and…well, I couldn’t exactly get into them (seriously, what normal person pays over $2K for shoes?!). However, I am heavily interested in how Sakurai wants to handle a Style Savvy character; I mean, it’d definitely be hilarious.

Noms: Further new modes x5
 
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Sep 22, 2012
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THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

March 11: Concept: No fan favorites/highly requested characters
March 12: Sly Cooper (Sly Cooper) & Q*Bert (Q*Bert)
March 13: Concept: World of Light expansion
March 14: Tracer (Overwatch)
March 15: Poochy (Yoshi)
March 16: Kat & Ana (WarioWare)
March 17: Vaati (The Legend of Zelda)


Tracer and Poochy snuck past Kat & Ana at the last second. Kat & Ana staying at 150 noms allowed Vaati to sneak in at the last moment. Normally I would have made the last two into the double day, but I was already contemplating making Sly and Q*Bert a double day, since they're both Sony properties.

Your new top 7 consists of Porky Minch, Boss Rush, Bonkers, Undertale rep, Ryu Hayabusa, Amy Rose, and... *sigh* Brash the Bear.


Porky Minch x138
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Undertale rep x130
Ryu Hayabusa x130
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115

150 - 101

Yuri Lowell x110
Impa x106

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x95
Creeper x86
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x75
Frogger x70
Spyro x67
Jin Kazama x65
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x60
Tetromino x60
Ninten x56
Metal Sonic x55

50 - 25

Morrigan Aensland x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
X (Mega Man) x39
Decidueye x38
Kamek x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Gooey (Kirby) x22
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Palico x15
Concept: DLC challenges x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Crono x10
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x8
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: Another joke character x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Mike Jones x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x5
Specter Knight x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Metal Sonic soars past 50 noms.
 
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Okay, this is my first time playing, so if I mess something up, please let me know.

Concept: Style Savvy rep
Chance: 5%
It's at least a first-party franchise, and a reasonably popular one at that. However, I don't know exactly if Nintendo views it as something worth being in Smash. Not that they couldn't make it work (remember Wii Fit Trainer?), but if they felt a desire to actually go the mile.
Want: 25%
I haven't played a Style Savvy game proper, but I did try out a demo for one, and enjoyed it, surprisingly. Though since I haven't played the full game, I don't exactly consider myself a full supporter.

Hat Kid (A Hat in Time)
Chance: 0%
The developers confirmed that Hat Kid isn't happening. Though, they seem to at least want her in.
Want: 100%
A Hat in Time is one of my favorite Indie games of all time. She has more than enough moveset potential, and the music is exactly what you want to hear in Smash. Anyone who's a fan of platformers needs to play it.

Nominations: Monokuma X5
 
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I haven't been the last to rate since Nihilego's day (I think) when I first joined Smashboards. Anyway, let's get this next one over with as fast as possible. Oh Jesus Christ...

Discount Barbie doll joins the battle! (Or not!)
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

She has a spirit and two music tracks. I think that's definitely enough for this series. I ended up missing this day the first time because I forgot to log on and rate two days after I joined, so I don't have a previous rating to show. 4th parties and joke characters aside, this is probably one of the most ridiculous characters we've rated quite a while, in my opinion. (Hanafuda takes the cake.) Is she iconic? No. She has her fans though. Does she live up to the hype? Also no. Does she have moveset potential? Big nope unless you are super creative. Style Savvy is just a model, and her game is all about fashion. She doesn't fight whatsoever, and I can't see what she would bring to the table outside of your basic punching and kicking. Is her neutral B gonna make her put on a new dress? How would she recover? Using a dress with a hanger and literally hang gliding? Using high heels? Will her neutral attacks have her take a shirt out of her bag and swing it around like Muscle Man, then use it as a whip like Simon Belmont? I can't think anything for side and down B, but Sakurai can think outside the box for just about any character. You could use the same arguments against Wii Fit Trainer, but she actually had to do with strength and fitness, which would correlate well with fighting and Smash Bros. She would represent the DS era, which shockingly only has one character, (Lucario) which would be nice, but there's other options. There's just many other characters I would prefer, and especially other female characters I'd rather have. (Mainly Shantae and Tracer) The game and character is just not for me. She's not a zero because I don't hate the character or games.

Is that all? Oh wait...

Disconfirmed character
Chance: DISCONFIRMED
Want: 40%
Count the chance score as a 0% because I shouldn't need to explain myself for a disconfirmed character. The devs disconfirmed Hat Kid on Twitter, and that's the end of it. I'm indifferent towards this character, and she's competition for my most wanted indie Hollow Knight. (Also Cuphead, but he's probably not gonna happen.) Also just like discount Barbie doll above, there's many other female characters I'd prefer.

No fan favorites: 23.35%

Tetromino x5

Okay, this is my first time playing, so if I mess something up, please let me know.

Concept: Style Savvy rep
Chance: 5%
It's at least a first-party franchise, and a reasonably popular one at that. However, I don't know exactly if Nintendo views it as something worth being in Smash. Not that they couldn't make it work (remember Wii Fit Trainer?), but if they felt a desire to actually go the mile.
Want: 25%
I haven't played a Style Savvy game proper, but I did try out a demo for one, and enjoyed it, surprisingly. Though since I haven't played the full game, I don't exactly consider myself a full supporter.

Hat Kid (A Hat in Time)
Chance: 0%
The developers confirmed that Hat Kid isn't happening. Though, they seem to at least want her in.
Want: 100%
A Hat in Time is one of my favorite Indie games of all time. She has more than enough moveset potential, and the music is exactly what you want to hear in Smash. Anyone who's a fan of platformers needs to play it.

Nominations: Monokuma X5
Yep. You did everything right :)
 
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Fashion Savvy:

Chance: 1% - This series doesn't seem very big, so I find a character unlikely. I don't know much about it, really just that it's a fashion game, but based on what I found for its sales as well as not seeing it brought up much at all online, it seems like they wouldn't consider giving the series a playable character as it seems to be a very small franchise.

Want: Abstain - I've never played the games - I only know that my sister might have played it before, though it could've been a different fashion game - and I don't really care either way.

-------

Hat Kiddo:

Chance: 0% - The Hat in Time developers have pretty much confirmed that she isn't gonna be in Smash, so it seems her chances are dead. You could say they could be lying...but, when the disconfirmation comes from the official twitter account/devs themselves, that'd be grasping for straws...not really much to say about this.

Want: 100% - I loved A Hat in Time, so I'd be happy with Hat Kid in Smash. I think they could do some unique things with the character, it'd bring some great music, and it'd add some cute-as-peck stuff to Smash Bros.

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Ninten x2
 
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Aug 13, 2018
Messages
628
Style Savvy rep

Chance: 0 - A very niche first party character. If we had 20 slots I'd still be very iffy on a Style Savvy rep, let alone 4 more. More suited for a non playable rep if the series would get one at all

Want: 0 - A Style Savvy character is probably wouldn't even make my top 100 for most wanted characters. The games seem very much not for me

Hat Kid
Chance: 0- Deconfirmed by the creator of the game. That's all we need to know here. Probably wouldn't go above a 10 or so even without the deconfirmation

Want: Abstain

Noms:
Porky x5
 

BowserKing

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
345
Location
winnipeg
Style Savvy Representative
Chance: 5%
Once again, tons of competition, as usual. They are also there as spirits and songs, but again, lots of competition.

Want: ???
I'll be honest, I never heard of the game until finding their spirits in Ultimate, but I'm on the fence for this one. Plus in my opinion, their songs are, well I'll just say that their songs are not the best.

Hat Kid:
Chance: 0%
The creators said no to the idea. Were just going to have to live with it, until the next smash game.

Want: 55%
The creators saying no to the idea is a disappointment, as she would be a fun fighter. Shantae and Shovel Knight are more likely to appear however.

Noms: 1 for Black Shadow, 1 for Lord Fredrik and 3 for third party from unrepped company.
 

KingofPhantoms

The Spook Factor
Joined
Feb 12, 2013
Messages
29,186
Location
Southern California
3DS FC
1006-1145-8453
NNID
Ravenant
Abstaining from Style Savvy rep.

Hat Kid chance. !%

The 1% is solely based on very remote possibility that she could be considered in the future. Otherwise, the devs themselves have flat out said Hat Kid isn't in the game. You can't get much more of a solid disconfirmation than that.

Besides that, as successful as the game is, A Hat in Time is still a third-party Indie game, and a very new one, at that, so the likelihood of her even being considered any time in the foreseeable future is extremely low. But I wouldn't call it impossible.

Want: 55%

Not on my most wanted list and although I have the game, I haven't actually played it yet. Based on what I've seen and read of the game thus far, however, I'm sure she could bring a lot to the table, and with how charming the game looks and how many people have expressed their love for the game, I couldn't object to her inclusion.

Besides, have you listened to the game's soundtrack? One major bonus alone is that we'd get to play Smash fights to music like this:


On a related note, the Snatcher would either need to be a powerful Spirit or a new Boss. That is mandatory. Bring The Conductor and DJ Grooves in as some Spirits while you're at it.

Nominations: Papyrus x5
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
846
Location
New Jersey
Cap Youth

Chance: Dead%. or 0%. The dev team of her game just said she's not in, and rather than try to spin it in her favor, I'm gonna say "yeah, she's not happening".

Want: 20%. Heard good things about her game, at least. But I'm not entirely sure I need to try it out that much.

Something funny about Style Savvy

Chance: 10%. Hey, anything can happen, but Style Savvy is not something I feel like has DLC potential. I feel like if there was a time for a Style Savvy character, it'd be base game.

Want: 20%. Yet another game I haven't played. Yet another lack of things for me to talk about. I'm not opposed to the idea, at least, since ridiculous movesets are part of what makes this series great.

Ryu Hayabusa has my unopposed attention for the rest of the week. Ryu Hayabusa x 5.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
Disclaimer: I've not played a Hat in Time.

Chance: "YOU ARE DED. NOT BIG SURPRISE."%
Insert obligatory "She's already been deconfirmed" comment here. Seriously. That's all that needs saying.


Want: 25%
I'm on the fence because, as I said earlier, I've not played A Hat in Time. Heard good things about it though.


Style Savvy

Double Abstain. There's simply not enough knowledge on my end.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,226
I haven't been the last to rate since Nihilego's day (I think) when I first joined Smashboards. Anyway, let's get this next one over with as fast as possible. Oh Jesus Christ...

Discount Barbie doll joins the battle! (Or not!)
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%

She has a spirit and two music tracks. I think that's definitely enough for this series. I ended up missing this day the first time because I forgot to log on and rate two days after I joined, so I don't have a previous rating to show. 4th parties and joke characters aside, this is probably one of the most ridiculous characters we've rated quite a while, in my opinion. (Hanafuda takes the cake.) Is she iconic? No. She has her fans though. Does she live up to the hype? Also no. Does she have moveset potential? Big nope unless you are super creative. Style Savvy is just a model, and her game is all about fashion. She doesn't fight whatsoever, and I can't see what she would bring to the table outside of your basic punching and kicking. Is her neutral B gonna make her put on a new dress? How would she recover? Using a dress with a hanger and literally hang gliding? Using high heels? Will her neutral attacks have her take a shirt out of her bag and swing it around like Muscle Man, then use it as a whip like Simon Belmont? I can't think anything for side and down B, but Sakurai can think outside the box for just about any character. You could use the same arguments against Wii Fit Trainer, but she actually had to do with strength and fitness, which would correlate well with fighting and Smash Bros. She would represent the DS era, which shockingly only has one character, (Lucario) which would be nice, but there's other options. There's just many other characters I would prefer, and especially other female characters I'd rather have. (Mainly Shantae and Tracer) The game and character is just not for me. She's not a zero because I don't hate the character or games.

Is that all? Oh wait...

Disconfirmed character
Chance: DISCONFIRMED
Want: 40%
Count the chance score as a 0% because I shouldn't need to explain myself for a disconfirmed character. The devs disconfirmed Hat Kid on Twitter, and that's the end of it. I'm indifferent towards this character, and she's competition for my most wanted indie Hollow Knight. (Also Cuphead, but he's probably not gonna happen.) Also just like discount Barbie doll above, there's many other female characters I'd prefer.

No fan favorites: 23.35%

Tetromino x5



Yep. You did everything right :)
I mean, you say it would be hard to come up with a moveset for a Style Savvy character, but you gave some pretty good ideas.
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,485
Style Savvy Character

Chance - 0.75% - Like I said a few days prior, the time for Joke characters is the base game, with Purana Plant getting a pass due to being free for many. Typically, DLC we have had so far have been either door-busting third parties, promo picks, or a cut veteran. Style Savvy has none of that going for it, and I don't think it's popular enough to overcome the problems.

Want - 15% - One of those "Need to see it in action to pass judgement" types. As of now, I can't see what she brings to the table. Maybe she might be interesting, but right now I think it is not the time for her.


Hat Kid

Chance - 0% - Was disconfirmed by the developers. Do I need to say more?

Want - 75% - Hat in Time is a charming game that really throws back to the N64 days while keeping things fresh. I need to get it, but from what I here it's pretty good. I am interested in seeing her, although it's not a priority to me by any means.


Nominations

Palico X5
 
Joined
Jul 14, 2014
Messages
1,330
Style Savvy character
Chance: 2%
Want: 92%
If it were for base game, I could see it. Style Savvy is a surprisingly successful 1st party series that would certainly bring something different to the game. But as DLC, I really doubt it. It's like, what if Wii Fit Trainer had been DLC? Who the hell would buy that?

And it's a real shame, because I'd really like to see her in.

Hat Kid
Chance: 1%
Want: 75%
I give a non-zero chance score because there's always the possibility, however slim, that they were lying or that negotiations happened after they said she's not in. But even without that, I don't think she'd stand a great chance. A Hat in Time made a decent splash, but not as big as multiple other indie titles.

It'd be great to see it happen, though. There's a lot of interesting stuff she can do for a potential Smash moveset.
 
Joined
Mar 26, 2013
Messages
720
Hat Kid
Chance: 4%
Want: 80%

Considering how long it took for the game to come out on Switch, I don't see it really happening. Shame too because she's basically the new Giana these days.

Nominate: Serious Sam x5
 
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
604
Style Savvy rep

Chance: 5%
They've got a spirit and more than one music track. That's about as much as any decent franchise under the Nintendo belt can manage in Ultimate, and I doubt we'll see more than that unless Sakurai has a secret appreciation for the series.

Want: 15%
I can acknowledge that some users here genuinely love this franchise, and it's not impossible that it might make for a decent addition. But it honestly feels more like i'm being guilt-tripped into supporting this franchise, since it'd the the "only" way to support casual games, neglected studios, and niche genres, or else I'm against the argument of such representations completely. The way I see it, there's plenty of other fashion games out there, but only Style Savvy gets a chance at Smash for the simple fact of being published under Nintendo. There's more there than that, right?


Hat Kid

Chance: 0%
God, I wish she had a chance to be in Smash, but this ain't it gang.

Want: 75%
There's something particularly inspiring about the story of A Hat in Time's development - how a ragtag bunch of people loosely inspired by the great 3D platformers of the N64 came together over the past half-decade to create something that turned out better than even a group of wistful ex-Rare developers could manage. Despite getting mere 8/10s, being overshadowed by Cuphead in 2017, and looking like it came from a previous console generation, A Hat in Time still managed to become a recognized indie hit - even when Super Mario Odyssey had come out at roughly the same time.

So while I've said in the past that the ideal indie game for Smash to pick ought to be something only possible without the trappings of a triple-A studio, I like A Hat in Time for being able to emulate something long thought to only be possible under a triple-A studio of Nintendo or old Rare's caliber - making a great 3D platformer that people remember. Of course, maybe it'll just be a matter of time until everyone's swept up by the next great indie game, but I think in a post-Joker world, it's important to recognize those that we'd simply love to see, no matter how unlikely their chances are.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Style Savvy

2% Chance

Dlc creates this awkward situation for outside picks like style savvy. Plant shows that this is not impossible, but it honestly is pretty close.

The standard knocks towards characters apply here. The most likely choice is a spirit, third parties seem to be the name of the game, that song and dance really plays around with most Nintendo characters. Their saving grace is a dedicated fandom. Bandana Dee is a great example of this, as he fits this description to a tee.

As an outside pick, Style Savvy is not something that has that benefit. Almost as a rule, outside picks rarely have a strong following. This is best seen within Plant and Duck Hunt the last cycle. As such, the usual anti spirit arguements would likely fall into SS.

Granted, SS has the clear benefit over other outside picks of not being from a dead franchise. Style Savvy had four games on the DS/3DS, with the latest releasing in 2017. I also would bet a switch game will come out at some point. The franchise clearly has value to Nintendo if the games keep coming.

Overall, an outside pick, but one that is not impossible upon further analysis. I would keep an eye on this one for the next game if we get a switch release.

100% want

I was gonna go for an even 50 or abstain to not affect want too much. But then I thought and I found the idea of this character interesting. The idea of using fashion seems fun. My personal idea for a moveset would be based on a boutique system where higher “sales” leads to stat boosts.

Hat Kid
0% Chance

Deconfirmed. I am glad that we did not can this day entirely, because I feel Hat Kid could be an indie to watch for if the switch release goes well. Granted a sea of competition exists but outside of Undertale, nothing that isn’t a spirit or AT really is a front runner on the indie side.

70% want

I love hat in time. One of the best games of 2017. But the moveset for hat kid just does not click for me. I feel that the game is super fun, but I do not feel that she screams moveset to me. I may not want Steve at all, but I can easily make a moveset for him. It clicks for me. Same for Shantae or Krystal. But Hat Kid I don’t get that spark of idea for. I guess I just don’t find any interesting moveset ideas for her or gimmicks. Best I came up with was hats changing stats but we have a character with that gimmick. I’d love to see a good hat kid moveset.

Nominating Sans rerate x 5

I’m honestly gonna say Sans is the character we underrated the most so far imo.

Expect an update post soon, Day over, time for no fan favorites.
 

Sari

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
3,060
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Concept: No fan favorites/highly requested characters

Chance: 20%
DLC seems like it'll be mainly big names that will get the internet worth talking. That said though I think there's a chance we'll get at least 1 character that not a lot of people requested/expected.

Want: 100%
Kyo Kusanagi and Terry Bogard are among my most wanted and AFAIK they aren't all that requested going by how little I hear of them (despite my many many attempts to mention them on this site whenever possible). Any chance to get them playable as well as some other unpopular picks of mine are perfectly fine by me.


Sly Cooper chance prediction: 1.05%
Q*Bert chance prediction: 0.85% (both of these characters aren't happening with Sony being so stingy)

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5
 
Joined
Sep 1, 2018
Messages
975
Location
Mexico City
3DS FC
3325-3200-4137
No fan-favourites:
Chance: 100%-For this concept, I'm going to take "fan-favourites" as Geno, Banjo, different ATs (including Isaac) and Mii Costumes (including Rex). Yes, I do believe none of those guys will be in this DLC. If there's anything I've learned about guest characters, is that most times, Sakurai will choose them by their pedigree as characters than by the amount of requests they have. And for Nintendo characters, well, not too much to say, they're ATs and Mii Costumes because Sakurai has no interest in making them full characters.
Want: 100%-Boy, have I grown weary of some of them to the point of being fine with their absence. Plus, say whatever you want, but I find most of them to be very boring in a moveset perspective compared to some of the less-requested characters.
Nominations: Morrigan x5
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,226
No fan favorites

Chance: 100%
Yeah, I'm going out on a limb, but I don't think we'll get any fan favorite for this season of DLC. All signs are pointing to it, really. Out of the fan favorites, many are disconfirmed by AT (Waluigi, Isaac, Ashley, Krystal, Lyn, Takamaru, Skull Kid, Shadow, the list goes on), Spirit (Geno, Dee, Dixie, Toad). Some of them also suffer from Sakurai clearly being disconnected from fans (Toad still being a move, Waluigi being a joke to him). Out of the fan favorites, the only big one without any presence in the game is Banjo; while it wouldn't take a miracle to get Nintendo and Microsoft to collaborate, they don't appear to be rushing into things either.

Add the fact that Joker is the emblematic choice, and it looks like Nintendo might have gone for splashy, internet-breaking, relevance based picks, or perhaps picks that aim to surprise, or maybe make Smash a larger pantheon of gaming. Regardless, none of those seem to actually be what fans want, so...

Want: 0%
I don't think it's a secret I was left somewhat disappointed by Ultimate's lineup and marketing. Yeah, I want to see people get the characters they want, no ****. I will never understand how a company can have fan adoration served to them on a platter and still ignore it, but hey, I guess artistic integrity is still alive.

Look, I just hope Nintendo realizes that if all those Switches are flying out of store shelves, it's because people will pay for Nintendo IP, and they don't need third parties to sell their products.

Noms: Crono X5

Porky Minch x143
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Ryu Hayabusa x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Undertale rep x130
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Yuri Lowell x115


150 - 101


Impa x106


100 - 51


Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x98
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x95
Creeper x89
Boss: Kracko x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x75
9-Volt x74
Frogger x70
Spyro x67
Jin Kazama x65
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x65
Tetromino x65
Metal Sonic x60
Ninten x58


50 - 25


Papyrus x46
Morrigan Aensland x45
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
X (Mega Man) x39
Decidueye x38
Kamek x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25


Under 25


Gooey (Kirby) x22
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Palico x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Concept: DLC challenges x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Crono x10
Monokuma x10
Kyle Hyde x10
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x8
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: Another joke character x7
Black Shadow x6
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Mike Jones x5
Specter Knight x5
Concept: New modes x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Ryu Hayabusa rushes past Undertale rep and Bonkers, ties with Boss Rush for second place. Yuri Lowell braves into the top 7, vying with Amy Rose and Brash the Bear for that last spot.

Today's newcomers are the concept of New modes and a rerate of Sans (both with 5 noms).
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
916
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Ballot completely forgotten
Chance: 25%
Now despite Reggie's statement on the fighter pass, I still think there's a good chance we see about 1 or 2 fan favourites. Reminder, the expectations of casual Smash consumers when it comes to characters probably don't exactly have to line up with what we expect. I can very well see us atleast getting Banjo-Kazooie for a number of reasons.

Want: 0%
There are only about 3 fan favourites I legitimately don't want. Not enough to be contrarian to support this idea. Honestly, I feel Ridley and K.Rool were the only newcomer choices influenced by the fan support. I think everybody else, echoes included, would've probably got in no matter what. With Plant and Joker especially, it feels like the DLC choices are moreso leaning towards Sakurai's personal biases and not the fan's desires. And that would be sad with a title like Ultimate. Personally, Dee, Rayman and Chorus kids are some of my most wanted and there also alot of other favourites who I may not personally support but still think deserve to be in for their fan's sake. The thought of Sakurai shoving them all aside, just so his precious Joker from Persona 5 can get a spot, annoys me greatly.

Sly: 0.36
Q-bert: 1.58%
Metal Sonic x5
 
Last edited:

perfectchaos83

Smash Champion
Joined
May 31, 2018
Messages
2,316
Depending on what you mean by fan favorite, I can rate it in several different ways. For this rating, I'll take it as this: Characters that the smash fanbase, as a whole, has wanted for more than one smash cycle OR a character who had noticeable and quantifiable support prior to a "credible" leak. My rating is as follows.

Chance: 20%

The only ones that I feel have a modicum of chance, imo, are Banjo and Lloyd. Whether they happen or not is another story, but I'm fully expecting the DLC choices to be aimed towards markets that don't particularly follow Smash. In that sense, I think Steve and Yuri are more likely choices for MS and Namco respectively (And it's partly why me predictions for this DLC are what they are). The "Nintendo fan" is going to be snubbed in this DLC.

Want: 15%

There's only one character I really want (Which should be pretty obvious who) and they're definitely not making this fighter's pass. There are characters that I think would be great under the criteria I think the DLC is going to go, (namely Erdrick, Yuri and Reimu) but they aren't characters I absolutely need in Smash despite liking them as characters and mostly wanting them because they make sense or would be neat. None of them particularly fill a gap in the roster that I want filled.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
202
Chance: 20%

It's fully well possible, considering that Joker wasn't exactly highly requested by fans (yet he made it into Smash). Literally anything could happen at this point (Except Goku).

Want: Abstain.
It's hard to say whether I'd WANT characters to not get in or so. Doubly so because some of my most wanted picks aren't that highly requested either (Read: Yuri Lowell and Reimu Hakurei), so I can't really give a clear opinion.


Noms: Yuri Lowell x5.
 

SKX31

Smash Ace
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
668
Location
Sweden
No fan favorites (using the same criteria as perfectchaos83 did):

Chance: 80 %

While Banjo and Lloyd may have a decent chance, I'm not sure about them at all because they are kind of overshadowed by others. Really, either of them would have a bigger chance at a "Megaman / Simon"-esque inclusion into the base game. That's not to say that fan favorites are neccessarily out by definition. But then, I can't help but to agree with the notion that Plant and Joker points to big marketing pushes and Sakurai's own personal wants being bigger factors. At least in this DLC cycle.

My biggest reason why is that Nintendo probably wants to make big bucks off this Fighter Pass - maybe as a reason to justify further DLC / Fighter Passes, partly to (re)build bridges with other companies, and Sakurai would probably want to go for the biggest pedigrees. To prove that he can make weird choices (like Doomguy or Master Chief for a FPS character) happen and thus expand on Smash's scope.

Want: Abstain. I'd be happy personally if no fan favorites, or a couple of them, got in.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5
 
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