Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Jomosensual]

9 Volt

Chance 0 - Huh, here's a character I don't know much about. Let's see what series he's from..... Oh. Wario. NEXT! Seriously though, I have a hard time seeing us getting more Wario reps at all, especially for DLC.

Want 0 - Out of all the series repped I think Wario is the one I want to get another rep the least. There are 0 characters from that series I'm even remotely interested in seeing become playable other than maybe Kat and Ana


Rundas

Chance 0 - I have a hard time seeing any more Metroid reps for this game other than maybe Sylux. I feel like even he might be a bit of a long shot due to there being a lot more first party reps who are more wanted or have better reasons to be added to the game than him too. For Rundas though, it's a big fat no

Want 0 - Not sure Rundas would even make a top 25 list of 1st party reps I'd like to see make the game. There's a lot more pressing characters to be added in than him.

Predict
Frogger 6%
Riesz - 4%

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[P47]

9-Volt

Chance: 1%

9-Volt is one of the most popular WW characters, but not the most. He's probably below Ashley & Red, Mona, and KatAna when it comes to Smash odds (with Kat & Ana having a lot of presence in Smash as Assist Trophies and now a Master Spirit, Mona being one of the faces of the series, and Ashley being an Assist Trophy, Mii costume, and arguably the series' most popular character besides Wario). The odds of even getting any WW character in the first place seem slim at this point but 9-Volt could happen if the Smash team is feeling really nostalgic.

Want: 60% (70% if in a tag team with 18-Volt or 5-Volt)

I don't care about 9-Volt all that much but I do care about WarioWare, so I'm on board. He would definitely have a really wacky and interesting moveset too with his love for everything Nintendo, his skateboarding, and how he's also a DJ.

Rundas: Abstain

Noms

• Andy (AW) x2
• Skull Kid (Zelda) x2
• Taranza (Kirby) x1

 

[Calamitas]

We did predictions for these two on Tuesday during Geno's day.

Ah, alright. Disregard that part of my post, then.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

His Spirit battle made me want to die
Chance: 0%
WarioWare isn't getting another rep. If the infinitely more popular Ashley can only be an Assist Trophy then I see no hope for this kid.

Want: 1%
I've played a few WW games and the Nintendo related microgames are neat but 9-volt himself does nothing for me, nor do alot of characters in WarioWare for that matter. Do not need him on the roster.

White Album
Chance: 0%
Metroid has already recieved enough love in the base game and I don't think it'll become the next FE with getting 3 newcomers in one game. Even then, it's been widely agreed that if the franchise was granted another character it would be Sylux. Prime 4 is coming, making Prime 3 old news.

Want: 15%
I know he has some neat ice powers so he would be pretty unique imo. I don't know anything else about him tho and I imagine it will be quite some time before I get around to Prime 3, so I think I'll pass.

Riesz: 5.89%
Frogger: 13.23%
Hollow Knight costume x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

9V, also known as Knive

Chance: 9%
Really unlikely. I don't really see us getting a WarioWare character for DLC, though I'd love to be proven wrong. Still, I think the much more popular Ashley and Mona would have the upper hand.

Want: 90%
I love 9-Volt as a character and his moveset could be a lot of fun, with him pulling from all sorts of Nintendo retro games. Still, I'm more of a supporter for his competition, but I'd still be happy to see him.

This was the ice one, right?

Chance: 1%
I really see no reason to include any of the bounty hunters in Smash, they're all cool characters but they don't really stand out from each other; it'd be like having just one of the Koopalings playable. I guess I could see it if one of them has a major role in Metroid Prime 4, but that's looking to be Sylux, and it certainly won't be Rundas.

Want: 20%
I guess his moveset would be cool but then again I'd rather leave the ice niche open so that Krystal can still win (though admittedly they'd play quite differently). Other than that, as much as I love MP, I can't say I'd be stoked to see Rundas playable, I think Metroid has reached perfect representation right now and would rather see Dark Samus decloned than another original Metroid character. Though at least it'd be neat seeing a first party character get in.

Riesz prediction: 4.31%
Frogger prediction: 17.86%
Noms: Atari rep x5

 

[Wunderwaft]

9-Volt
Chance: 0%
As it stands out it's looking unlikely we'll get a first party character as DLC, and if we do get one it's bound be to someone who is a fan favorite or from a new game. 9-Volt doesn't fit either of these criteria. He's not the most popular WarioWare character (If we're not including Wario then the winner is Ashley), and WarioWare as a series doesn't seem likely for DLC.

Want: 60%
I'm only rating him this low because I have other Wario characters I prefer to see more. I like 9-Volt and I think he's cool, but he's not my choice for another Wario character.


Rundas
Chance: 0%
Rundas is a character from Metroid Prime 3 who never appeared again in the series. We were lucky to get Dark Samus in this game (albeit as a clone). I don't see Rundas standing with a shot considering Sylux is the hot new topic.

Want: 20%
A shame, time has passed and I have lost interest in Rundas. I think Metroid is perfectly represented at the moment and it has gotten all the important characters of the series in Smash.


Prediction:
Riesz 4.20%
Frogger 11.78%

Nomination: Steve x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember, this is the last day that you can change the top seven. After the day change it will be locked down.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Game Awards expectations pre-9-Volt/Rundas

[Rerate] Quote x140
Concept: Any grass-type starter x132
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x130
[Rerate] Steve x127
Thrall (Warcraft) x125
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x120
Sol Badguy x115
Francis York Morgan x115

150 - 101

Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x100
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x95
[Rerate] Sora x86
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
[Rerate] Heihachi x80
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x80
Proto Man x75
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x75
Papyrus x71
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x55
Kunio (River City) x55
Reporter & Wrestler x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x45
[Rerate] Monokuma x39
[Rerate] Dante x37
Meowth x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Earthworm Jim x35
Akira Howard x30
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x30
King Boo x29
Concept: Atari rep x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x21
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
Giygas x14
Boss: Ender Dragon x12
Rival Pokémon Trainer x11
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x10
[Rerate] Waluigi x8
Freddy Fazbear x7
Toxtricity x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Chell x3

Protector passes Thrall and ends the day in third place. Steve digs under No more stages beyond the Pass and Thrall and rests in fourth.

Reporter & Wrestler go over 50 noms.

King Boo and Atari rep ghost past the 25 nom mark.

 

[NintenRob]

9-volt
Chance 1%
He's just not a DLC pick, he's barely a base game pick. I feel Ashley, Mona and Jimmy would all get in first. He's only saving grace is the appeal of a retro gaming moveset
Want 20%
I like 9-Volt, I think he'd be cool. His moveset would be really interesting

Rundas
Chance 0%
Rundas is a cool character but his in game and is dead before the halfway mark. He'd be lucky to be an assist trophy and the days of looking for bad alternatives to Ridley are long over.
Want 10%
I do like Rundas, he's just not smash material. Metroid is pretty much perfect with the 4 it has, heck I thought Ridley alone would be all it should have gotten and we get Dark Samus on top of that. Still I'd like Rundas theme remix please.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction
Reigz 0.7%
Frogger 2.4%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on both 9-Volt and Rundas. I don't know anything about either of them.

Nominations: Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

9-Volt

Chance: 1% - 9-Volt is a popular character within WarioWare itself but faces a lot of stiff competition from KatAna, Ashley, and Mona, all who have a larger presence in Smash as a whole. The group all together has high-level spirits, trophies, Mii Costumes, and even two assist trophies. Meanwhile 9-Volt has just a sticker and a shared spirit, so while he'd be cool he definitely wouldn't be high priority for the Smash team. and that's if we end up getting a WarioWare-only character at all.

Want: Abstain - I don't have enough experience with WarioWare to give him a fair rating, though if they played around with meta game concepts he could make for a very funny character!


Rundas

Chance: 0.5% - It took five games for Metroid to have more than one rep, and there are more significant reps like Stylux that the Smash Team would likely go for first if they decide to add another. Furthermore, relevancy isn't on his side. His latest appearance was in 2007 and he has little to no fan demand, so I just don't see a reason to choose him. He doesn't have a spirit or any kind of representation in the Smash series so he's more than likely not anywhere Sakurai's radar, unfortunately.

Want: Abstain - I'm not a huge Metroid fan so I didn't know of the character's existance before doing this write-up, though he has a cool and unique appearance, I'm sure Sakurai could do something interesting with him!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions:
Frogger - 5.82%
Riesz - 1.67%

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

9-Volt

Chance: 0.5%
I'm a firm believer that we're going to see a lot more first party DLC after the pass, but 9-Volt... he is nowhere near the list of possibilities, in my mind. Even if we did get a WarioWare character, he's not at the top of that list either, and WarioWare is one of the lowest priorities for reps IMO. So many other more-highly-requested characters from the series.

Want: 50%
I didn't put any thought into him until just now, but holy **** he'd be awesome. Don't get me wrong, I would MUCH rather have Jimmy T or Mona, or even Ashley- but as far as unique movesets go, 9 Volt has some insane potential. His micro-games are always based on retro gaming, most of them quite literally just being a small portion of a retro game. (if you've never played WW, think of NES Remix but less Remixed) His moveset, then, would HAVE to include a ton of references to old video games, mostly NES. There are a ton of iconic NES games that could show up in his moveset without having to be dedicated to a full character, just like Pac-Man does for Namco.

Just for fun, here's a small (very unfinished) moveset for him, based almost entirely around referencing NES games.

Spoiler: 9-Volt Moveset

Gimmick:
Like with Pac-Man's smash attacks, many of 9-Volt's moves will create a large pixelated character in front of him that do an attack for him. 9-Volt is always carrying around a Waritendo Swap™ (Read: Switch) that allows him access to all his favorite games to do so. As a result of this gimmick, many of his moves will function like projectiles, giving 9-Volt very little end-lag on summoning them, but with the massive weakness of having them be reflectable in most cases. 9-Volt is going to function like an annoying summoner/zoner archetype- Getting in is hard because of how easily he can throw everything and the kitchen sink your way.

Pretend I put some normal moves here.

Up B- Balloon Fight Flight
9-Volt summons two 8-bit balloons to attach to his head, similar to Villager's up-B, but slightly different. Matching the NES game better, he's able to attack foes if they touch him from below, but gains less vertical height to compensate.

Side B- Exciting Bike
9-Volt summons an 8-bit motorcycle, hops on, and drives forward! Functions similarly to other riding moves like Wario's Side B, however he can't turn around or slow down, only jump, or jump off. The bike explodes immediately upon hitting a wall or when he jumps off. (Jump button to jump with the motorcycle, attack/dodge to get off.)

Down B- Tetramino Tower
9-Volt quickly summons a tetris piece, placing it in front of him to act as a shield. The piece breaks after taking enough damage, and acts as a pseudo-wall like Pac-Man's hydrant does. It can be used midair as well, where it will slowly fall to the ground. If a piece takes a hit without breaking, it rotates. If you clear a line, you get 5000 points! (read: nothing happens) He can only have 3 on-screen at once.

Neutral B- Power-Up Roulette
9-Volt spins the roulette wheel (stylized after SMB2/Doki Doki Panic's level end-screen) to try and get a power-up! Various different items from NES games can appear, and he can stop it by pressing B again or waiting until the end. Each powerup changes what his Neutral B does for 5 seconds. After the 5 seconds are up, he can spin again. What he gets is random. Possibilities include...
SMB1 Fire Flower- Allows him to shoot fireballs, similar to Mario's neutral B, but faster and weaker and more annoying.
LOZ Red Candle- Allows him to spawn an 8-bit flame in front of him that damages anyone who touches it. Only one on-screen at a time.
SMB3 Hammer Suit- Allows him to shoot hammers upward in an arc. They deal a lot of damage and knockback, but are hard to aim.
Metroid Missile Upgrade- Allows him to use an 8-bit version of Samus's Side B.
etc.

Abstaining on Rundas, don't know enough.

Frogger prediction: 14.12%
Riesz prediction: 1.89%

Grass type starters x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Electricity gamer and... uh... Run, DasVergeben will put you out of the running.

Chance for both: 0%. I feel like everything regarding the both of them can be boiled down to simply: why? Why would 9-Volt get in over Mona, Ashley or Captain Syrup, all of whom are much more popular? Why would Rundas get in at all, when he's both out of relevance and dwarfed in popularity by several other candidates, least of which Sylux? In fact, both of them basically have the same issue, they just don't fit in the totem pole of prominence. I could probably name over 20 Nintendo characters that'd take priority over 9-Volt, make that 35 for Rundas.

Want (9-Volt): 50%. Now I initially would've given 30% on his own merits, because I feel like a Wario character who isn't one of the three I mentioned or Kat & Ana would just feel like a middle finger to fans of those characters. But then I saw Pokéfreak's post and that actually sounds really cool.

Want (Rundas): Abstain. I have heard of this guy in passing, but from what I remember he's mostly a mook to get 86'd for story purposes. I dunno what he brings to the table beyond a moveset that would make me care about him. (Now after initially writing that, a quick wiki glance tells me what he brings to the table, and that seems neat. But without context as to how he'd feel, it wouldn't be very helpful in determining how he'd play).

Lloyd x 5.

 

[Sid-cada]

9-volt

Chance - 0.05% - He's not popular, not really that notable, and struggles even in her own series. He's not happening, especially as DLC.

Want - 20% - While there is some retro charm to him, I typically think it's better to have the actual character than reduce one to a cameo on a move; it's what's been keeping a Balloon Fighter out.


Rundas

Chance - 0% - Metroid already got two characters. Alongside actually having someone in Sylux be more relevant than him, he doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Want - 35% - Not supper against him, but I'm fine with Metroid right now. There are other characters I would rather see.


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[Sari]

Forgot to say it earlier but expect the day to end on Saturday at around 10 am EST (about 10 hours and 15 minutes from now).

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Riesz from Trials of Mana, as well as Frogger from the Frogger series.

Predict Quote from Cave Story.

Megadoomer

----------

Some Riesz/Trials of Mana related songs:

Spoiler: Riesz Music

And some songs for Frogger:

Spoiler: Frogger Music

 

[Perkilator]

I can’t pronounce this name. Ree-ez? Recess?
Anyways, abstain on both

The Princess and the Frogger
Chance: .1%
Because Konami.

Want: 50%
Eh, why not? He’s clearly an influential character in gaming history.

Quote: 2.9%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Frogger

Chance: 5% - While Konomi has its' issues, Frogger is a well-known arcade icon with tons of ports of the original, along with plenty of new games over the years. Thus there is a lot of material to pull from for a moveset, along with plenty of ideas for a stage. While I can mainly see him getting in due to a personal request ala Pac Man, I can't imagine him being restricted to his Classic material in the same way. His newer bipedal design also would be relativly easy to animate compared to a hopping frog, but I can't imagine Sakurai wanting to opt for that design. Still, despite his iconic status his main issue is relevancy. Aside from various ports and retools for mobile devices, his last major game was in 2006, so as DLC I don't see Nintendo going for him as they wouldn't see much benefit in including him. However as a Base game character for 6 I can imagine him hopping his way in to surprise us.

Want: 30% - I have no problems whatsoever with another "cereal mascot" character making it to the roster, and Frogger's had his fair share of Nintendo appearances and iconic status to justify inclusion for me. Furthermore, I played and loved Swampy's Revenge as a kid, and while I never beat the last few levels it was always a notable game for me.

Abstaining on Reisz since I know little about her or the Mana series.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Quote: 20.71%

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain on the first guy.
Konami rep 3: electric boogaloo
Chance:0%: Yeah, not happenin g. Contra and Bomberman are more important. Even silent hill IMO is more likely.
Want:0%: Bomberman and Contra. But honestly, I don't want another arcade reo, and I certainly don't want it from Konami.
Nominations Shadow x5

 

[Calamitas]

Double Abstain. I don't know nearly enough about either of those two to give a proper rating.

Nomating Concept: Any Xenoblade Newcomer x5

Predicting Quote to get around 23.59%.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Rise

Chance: 0%
A JRPG character, not even necessarily the main character of her own game, (one of six main characters) and owned by Square Enix... Maybe it's just me, but I don't think her status as a female character is going to do anything to overcome Geno or Chrono or any other Square Enix rep. Considering so few people heard of her and even fewer care about her, she's not going to get in from fan-demand any time soon.

Abstaining on want because I'd feel bad giving a character a 40% want score exclusively because they're a pretty girl

FROGGER

Chance: 15%
As an out-of-the-blue totally unexpected character, Frogger actually has a pretty good chance I think. He's one of the most recognizable video game characters out there that isn't already in Smash. (if you ask my parents at least, they probably would confuse Greninja with Frogger) I could definitely see it happening.

Want: 40%
Frogs are cool. Frogger is a good video game. Sure, yes, maybe he doesn't have the greatest moveset potential in the world... but he's Frogger. Funky little frog man.

Quote prediction: 19.96%

Grass starters x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rieszszszszsz
Chance: 1%
Trials of mana has stayed JP exclusive from its debut on Super Famicom untill the very recent port on the Mana collection this year. She just doesn't sound profitable enough to compete with the likes of Crono, Neku, a Bravely character or even Geno.

want: Abstaining

Waddup
Chance: 20%
Frogger has enough legacy and left-field appeal to be considered a fronthopper for another potential Konami character. Frogger may not have had any major game releases within the last decade but neither have BK and alot of Konami series, ayy. Choosing a fitting design to incorporate into the game may sound tough but I don't doubt Sakurai pulling it of.

want: 50%
While I've never really had any experience with Frogger, I couldn't be mad if he got in. He's an arcade icon like Pacman and extensive library of games so I can't say he doesn't deserve it. And I would appreciate seeing a moveset for a more realistic behaving frog in Smash Bros. (assuming they would go for the more classic design) Alucard is already out of the running being an AT so currently Frogger would not compete with any of my wants when it comes to Konami.

Quote: 14.86%
the prince x5

 

[NintenRob]

Riesz
Chance and want 0%
Surely if we were to get a Mana character, it would be someone from secret. And that's not even touching all the other Square characters.


Frogger
Chance 5%
Want 0%
You know how people use to say Pac-Man is only famous for one game, this is even more true for Frogger, except Frogger was just a frog. It wasn't until after the fact did they try and turn him into weird more human like character, except that never exactly took off.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5
(or if that's locked in)

Nominate Skull Kid x5

 

[BowserKing]

Riesz

Chance: 5%. Square Enix already has two fighters, and competition is very fierce. The chance of a rep from this game is very slim, but not impossible

Want: 50%. Don't really know too much about this franchise. The character would be fun to play as however.

Frogger

Chance: 10%. It's another old school fighter, so the chance is a bit higher. But once again, competition is the main concern, and I pretty sure Bomberman would get in before.

Want: 50%. It would be fun to play as, and a fight on the street with cars arriving, that adds a challenge to the brawl. I can already see Greninja fighting Frogger in this stage.

Prediction: Quote: 12%

Noms: 2 for Meowth and 3 for Earthworm Jim

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dental Plan (Riesz Needs Braces)

Chance: 0%
A character from Trials of Mana, a game that until this year was Japan-exclusive and will get a big-budget remake next year. I don't see her getting in. She's not the main character of the game as Trials has six main characters (though allegedly she's the most popular). Still, there's one reason why Mana is a legendary series, and it's not Trials, it's Secret of Mana. Secret of Mana is an absolute classic, one of the greats, a masterpiece, and also the only title in the series that most people know (Sword of Mana, the first title, was released as Final Fantasy Adventure in America and as Mystic Quest in Europe). So if we got a Mana rep, it would obviously be Randi. Even then, Randi's got some strong competition, as Geno, Sora, Lara Croft, Adam Jensen, Bub & Bob, 2B, Crono, Neku, and hell, Agnes - who for obvious reasons is now a strong contender again - are all Square Enix. Could she get in as a promotional rep for the remake? Well, we haven't had a promotional character so far, and I'm not seeing Trials of Mana as being the title to get that red carpet treatment (it already got a huge spot in Nintendo's E3 presentation).

Want: 14%
I haven't played Trials of Mana yet, though I'm planning on buying the Collection and changing that. Still, I always favor the historical factor, and there we all know Randi wins. Get Randi in instead.

Crono's friend

Chance: 35%
Underrated, to be sure, I can totally see Frogger getting in by surprise. He's an icon and the protagonist of a highly successful and influential and evergreen classic. Low moveset potential? Maybe, but Sakurai made Pac-Man and Duck Hunt work and Frogger's certainly not the kind of character that needs moveset potential to get in.

Want: 80%
A safe pick and not one I'm personally rooting for, but nobody can say that Frogger doesn't deserve to be in Smash.

Noms: Atari rep x5
Quote prediction: 39.12%

 

[Sari]

Riesz

Chance: 1%
Her game never even got released outside of Japan up until this year, which is a major blow to her chances when she has to compete with more popular and well-known Square Enix characters out there. Also if we were to get a character from the Mana series then it'd probably be Randi from Secret of Mana since that game is the most globally popular entry in the series.

Want: Abstain
Never played any of the Mana games so I won't comment.

----------

Frogger

Chance: 15%
He's got legacy and is without a doubt iconic. If we were to get another Konami character then I can see him being a frontrunner, though he still has some big Konami competition in the form of a Contra character and Bomberman (if they decide to add AT's).

Want: 60%
I thought this idea was silly at first but after thinking about it I'd be ok with Frogger getting in as long. I love Frogs and would be down for Frogger joining as long as he is sporting his Frogger Beyond design. Like 9-Volt this score is somewhat low because of other characters I'd want to see get in, specifically Bomberman who is my most wanted Konami character. While I wouldn't mind Frogger there is no way I'd want him to take a Konami spot over Bomberman.

----------

Quote chance prediction: 17.04%

Nominations:
2B x5

The Princess and the Frogger
Chance: .1%
Because Konami.

Want: 50%
Eh, why not? He’s clearly an influential character in gaming history.

If you want your noms to be counted you're going to have to write at least two full sentences for both chance and want.

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 357: Quote (Cave Story)
Day 358: Concept: Any grass-type starter
Day 359: Protector (Etrian Odyssey)
Day 360: Steve (Minecraft)
Day 361: Thrall (Warcraft)
Day 362: Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass
Day 363: Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear) & Francis York Morgan (Deadly Premonition)

No surprises today, so I guess I'll just mention that this is gonna be a bad week to be me.

Your new top seven consists of Sunflower, Unsafe Wiimote Guy, Any new Xenoblade character, Aloy, Sora, Glover, Noctis Lucis Caelum, and Ryu Hayabusa.

Spoiler: Nominations post-9-Volt/Rundas pre-Riesz/Frogger

Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x105
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x105
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x105
Aloy x100
[Rerate] Sora x86
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
[Rerate] Heihachi x80
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x71
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x65
Kunio (River City) x55
Reporter & Wrestler x55
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
[Rerate] Monokuma x44
[Rerate] Dante x37
Meowth x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Earthworm Jim x35
Akira Howard x30
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x30
Concept: Atari rep x30
King Boo x29

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x21
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Giygas x17
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
Rival Pokémon Trainer x13
Boss: Ender Dragon x12
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x10
[Rerate] Waluigi x8
Freddy Fazbear x7
Toxtricity x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
[Rerate] Skull Kid x2
Taranza x1

Claude von Riegan crosses 50 noms.

Today's new nominees are rerates of Andy and Skull Kid (with 2 noms each) and Taranza, with one nom to his name.

PokéfreakofBACON you should probably change your nominations for today.

I guess I'll edit calcs into this post

Spoiler: Calcs

9-Volt
1.64% Chance, 37.58% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft with 1.78%

Rundas
0.89% Chance, 22.08% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with a near-exact 0.90%

Right now, the people with extra noms are

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DaUsername 52
Delzethin 5
Jomosensual 5
NintenRob 10
Ninjaed 5
Sari 15
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
Ultomato 5
waddledeeonredyoshi 20
Wunderwaft 15

 

[3DSNinja]

I gave Shadow 5 noms yesterday

 

[DanganZilla5]

Abstaining on Riesz

Frogger

Chances: 25%

Frogger is an iconic character from the arcade age and even had games up until Frogger 3D in 2011, including plenty of Nintendo presence. To my knowledge his 3D games gave him more abilities that could be used in a moveset. He's owned by Konami, who doesn't have much in terms of realistic picks besides Contra. The only thing is that there isn't much evidence pointing toward him, but to be fair, there is nothing really going against him. Thinking about it, he could happen sometime in the DLC cycle. In terms of competition with other arcade reps, he is one of the couple classic arcade characters to live long enough to have games that give him more to work with in a fighting game environment.

Want: 60%

I never seriously considered Frogger, but looking at the facts, he has potential. It would be nice to have another arcade rep and Frogger was and still is one of my favorite arcade games.

Predictions: Quote - 15% (The fact that Undertale, the indie game that took Japan by storm, got only a Mii costume and 1 song does concern me a bit)

Noms: Monokuma x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on both. I don't know anything about either of them.

Nominations: Papyrus x4, Monokuma x1

 

[GoodGrief741]

I gave Shadow 5 noms yesterday

Didn't give enough reasoning though

 

[Sari]

Forgot to say it earlier but I'll end the day some time around afternoon on Sunday (essentially when there is no activity for a while).

 

[Sid-cada]

Riesz

Chance - 0% - Only really getting an international version this year really hurts. Being one of 6 main characters hurts too. Combined with Squere Enix having tight competition alongside already having Hero...

Want - 45% - RPGs are not my genre of game. I'd rather have someone else.


Frogger

Chance - 10% - Frogger's hard to say. He's an arcade classic, but he hasn't had much done with him sense. He's also not quite Pac-man tier, alongside facing other problems like other characters being competition, I don't see him as overly likely.

Want - 35% - I don't like the design of Pac-Man in Smash; it feel like they made a moveset more based around abusing mechanics than actually trying to represent the character. I'd rather not have a repeat of that.


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain on Riesz. It's late and I'm probably going to forget to rate in the morning

Frogger: 5%
Frogger is owned by Konami, so there is a link smash already. According to a post above, Frogger gets power ups in his newer games, so those could be made into a moveset. I was actually pretty concerned about a potential moveset when I started giving him noms, so this is nice to see.

Fun fact: Frogger's newest game was released in September 2019 on the Apple Arcade.

Want: 65%
Frogger would be such a weird pick, but at the same time it would make a lot of sense due to it's legacy. I'm not sure who was nominating Frogger originally. I didn't remember seeing any noms for him but he was high up on the list, so I thought it would be a fun rating.

Predictions: Quote 15%. Where did he come from, I don't remember seeing him on the list at all

Noms:
Akira Howard x3
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x2

 

[Jomosensual]

Frogger

Chance 5 - I dont think we're getting any more Konami reps. If we do though then..... maybe? Not sure what other unrepped series they could go for. Would be a funny troll pick with a lot of his moves dodging cars that hit opponents I guess

Want 50 - Would be pretty funny so there's that at least. I enjoy troll characters so this wouldn't be the worst thing

Abstaining from Riesz because I know nothing about her and wont have time to look into it

Predict Quote - 3.46

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x 5

 

[Ninjaed]

I'm finally back but I'll probably be less active? I don't know yet. A shame, because that means I won't have much time to write stuff about Riesz, who is the character I nominated... Oh well.

---
Riesz

Chance: 5%
I won't lie or pretend, her odds are unlikely. Square Enix is big and the fame the Mana series enjoys stems from Secret of Mana, not Trials of Mana (previously known as Seiken Densetsu 3, or Secret of Mana 2) which never even released outside of Japan. While one of 6 main characters, she's pretty much the poster girl for her game and one of the most popular characters of the Mana series. For instance, she's the one who got selected to cameo in Million Arthur Arcana Blood.

But this is far from enough. Competition is way too stiff. The only way she could make it in would be in the 2nd DLC wave (or 3rd? Hah, one can dream) and if the Trials of Mana remake performs above expectations. I'm confident Square Enix would would try to tap into the series potential if that happened - they're already trying to revive it after all. It's basically the reason why I even started considering her in the first place. If the remake doesn't generate enough noise, she'll forever remain a pipedream.

Want: 100%
I could write more about but like I said, not that much time so I'll just link this support thread.

---
Frogger

Chance: 5%
With the name alone, I didn't realise what it was. It's a pretty famous arcade game, inspired quite a few things. That said, if Frogger ever made it in, it'd be like what you can see in Duck Hunt Duo: a mix of several Konami arcade games packed into one. Not enough time to go fetch the names right now though, sorry.

Want: abstain
I played it but hold no attachment to it at all. I wouldn't be hyped if it got in, I wouldn't be sad either. I'd be neutral if not indifferent.

---
Predictions: Quote - 3%
People will be "generous", even though his chances of ever appearing are only as a mii costume like Sans.

Nominations: Kiryu Kazuma x5 (+5, since I apparently got nominations while I was away)

 

[DaUsername]

Quadruple abstain.
"prediction": 15%
Noms: Atari rep x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Abstaining on Riesz. I don't have anything to say about this character.

Frogger Chance: 20%. It's definitely a very likely addition... as, say, a Spirit. I don't think that arcade cred is all that important for getting a coveted roster spot when, from what I can tell, this guy has the Pac-Man problem but the solution games aren't even that well known. Maybe, but I doubt it for playability.

Want: Also abstaining. Despite the cred, I don't think I've ever actually played anything involving him.

Since I'm abstaining so much, I'll abstain on nominations as well.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Quote from Cave Story.

Predict Concept: Any Grass-type Starter Pokemon.

I'll probably end the day Monday night to get the schedule back to normal.

Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the Cave Story mood:

Spoiler: Cave Story Music

 

[KillerCage]

I give Quote a 30% chance of making into Smash. In my mind, Cave Story is the father of indie games and has a strong relationship with Nintendo via ports to Wiiware, DSiware, & Switch as well as a 3DS remake. Quote is also Japanese in origin, something that separates him from every other indie character except Reimu of Touhou fame. His biggest obstacle may be the company that owns him, but Nintendo has been able to negotiate with Konami, Square Enix, and Microsoft so I don't think this is much of an issue.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Sari
Chance: 10%
One of the indie OGs of the Wii era, I think it certainly stands among the characters with the best chances in that category. That said... they're not looking that good either, considering Shovel Knight, Shantae and Undertale didn't get playable characters. Plus there's the weird legal situation with Nicalis... don't think it helps him any.

Want: Abstain
Played the demo for the Wii, but still I don't think it's enough for me to form an opinion here. I'd kinda dig the aesthetic, but I'd like to see a few more concepts for him before drawing my conclusions.

Predictions
Any grass starter Pokémon: 10.5%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x5