Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 355: 9-Volt (Wario Ware) and Rundas (Metroid)

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I think the notion that people think 2B has a better shot as Lara proves the existence of the Smash bubble beyond any doubt.
You say that as if there weren't other situations that proved that before lol.

Her latest games had massive acclaim, nowhere near lukewarm (well, maybe the third one).

The new trilogy has sold over 22 million copies.
Hmm, maybe it wasn't the best choice of words, but again, I'm not looking at them in a vacuum, I'm comparing Lara's success now to the fact that she used to be a console mascot for Sony.

The new trilogy as a whole has sold more than 22M, but if you look at the games separately, the latest entry in Tomb Raider sold 4M - roughly the same as Nier: Automata. Not only that, but the sales slowly decreased over time - 11M to 7M and the aforementioned 4M. Still good numbers, but for today's triple A standards and when compared to other SE icons... maybe not so much. TR is still nowhere near a flop, for sure, but you can't deny that the franchise has seen better days in terms of being a Sony icon.

I guess my point is: 4M for a franchise that used to be obscure is great. 4M for one that used to be a Sony icon is... not bad, but not great, either. I'm still giving the 15% because I think Lara has a shot, but it's not as good of a shot as 2B, let alone the juggernaut of fan demand that is Sora.

Since you touched on 2B: I think she has a better shot for several reasons. For one, she was actually made by Square Enix and I can see her getting more push as a result. Whereas I can see Lara having some roadblocks because of her western origins and other studios involved.

Second, she's a recent SE icon, one whose game literally pushed her series away from the "obscure" category and got nominated for several GOTY awards, kinda like the second Persona trilogy did for that series. SE has... a tendency to sometimes push for recent characters in crossovers, like Noctis in Tekken 7 and 2B herself for Soulcalibur 6.

Third, the relationship Sakurai has with Platinum Games, Square Enix and Yoko Taro.

Fourth: Sakurai has talked about Automata and the Nier series in his column.

The only hypothetical barrier 2B faces is CERO... and that can be dealt with relatively easily if Sakurai and Taro are willing to.
 
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Umm...I'm new here, I guess...so, here's what I gotta say...ahem.

Lara

Chance: 65%

We already have our Square rep for this season (Hero). And we usually got one rep per company every DLC pack. That means that we won't expect any further Square reps as the final FP5, but on the plus side...yeah. Being that she's the definition of a badass female icon, who would not want her in? Though considering how...great her last games went, it would be quite the surprising pick.

Want: 95%

As the resident feminist myself, I would definitely wanna see her in. Good luck making a moveset though!

Nominate: none.
 

Ninjaed

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Umm...I'm new here, I guess...so, here's what I gotta say...ahem.
Welcome a-boards then! ... God that pun was Terry-ble.
As the resident feminist myself, I would definitely wanna see her in. Good luck making a moveset though!
If it's true feminism, then I completely agree. Smash lacks female representation at the moment. But Bayo already does the badass girl with guns shtick, so... I'm not sure Lara would be the one? Maybe she would, but there are plenty more fish in the video game ocean - such as Velvet Crowe. Yeah, your name reminded me of her.
 
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If it's true feminism, then I completely agree. Smash lacks female representation at the moment. But Bayo already does the badass girl with guns shtick, so... I'm not sure Lara would be the one? Maybe she would, but there are plenty more fish in the video game ocean - such as Velvet Crowe. Yeah, your name reminded me of her
The name comes from Red Velvet - a K-Pop group. Anyway, that's why I'm here campaigning for a female DLC character in Ultimate!
 
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The name comes from Red Velvet - a K-Pop group. Anyway, that's why I'm here campaigning for a female DLC character in Ultimate!
You should try giving nominations, then, either to a character you think is likely or one you'd want. Who knows, might help relieve your pessimism for the next season a bit.
 

Tonberry2k

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Lara is undoubtedly an important gaming icon. She was everywhere in the mid-90s, and she's still known to casual gaming audiences today (She got a shout-out in Wreck It Ralph, even!). She's also a character from an under-represented genre in Smash.

I think the biggest thing holding her back is that she's owned by Square now. With so many other characters from Square either already in the game (Cloud, Hero) or being requested for the game (Sora, Geno, Crono), it would be easy for her to be lost in the shuffle and drowned out by louder voices.
 

Troykv

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Umm...I'm new here, I guess...so, here's what I gotta say...ahem.

Lara

Chance: 65%

We already have our Square rep for this season (Hero). And we usually got one rep per company every DLC pack. That means that we won't expect any further Square reps as the final FP5, but on the plus side...yeah. Being that she's the definition of a badass female icon, who would not want her in? Though considering how...great her last games went, it would be quite the surprising pick.

Want: 95%

As the resident feminist myself, I would definitely wanna see her in. Good luck making a moveset though!

Nominate: none.
Oh, I wasn't expecting to see you around here Velvet.

Welcome to RTC.
 
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Lara Croft
Chance 55%:Lara is pretty much possible in future dlc after the fighters pass, She is a major icon in the video game industry, has appeared on Nintendo systems with a few games(Tomb Raider: Legend to Tomb Raider: Underworld come to mind) and The Tomb Raider franchise sold about 74 million copies making it the 3rd best selling Square Enix franchise they ever owned, however the problem is the Lara has a lot competition with other Square-Enix Characters like Sora,2B,Geno,Chrono,Neku and others so she may not be the most likely Square-Enix character to be picked.
Want 40%:I would to like to see Lara Croft in smash bros, and I can see she can use both her guns and arrows in her moveset potential.
 

Night Gale

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Want: 100%

Tomb Raider is the series that got me into gaming as a young girl, after watching my older sister play it and trying to help her out with the puzzles. It took us an eternity to beat that sh*t but it was captivating as hell. Tomb Raider wasn't the first video game that we owned but it was the first one to grab my attention. I looked up to Lara Croft; she's clever, resolute, talented, and coordinated. She's a total badass and always has been. Many video game icons back then were devoid of personality, but Lara felt real; betch had a full name and a believable backstory. Hell, there was a time that I thought that there was a real life Lara Croft and I know I'm not the only one.

With that being said, there's a sh*tload of games that they can pull from to create a movie list for her so she would be different from the rest of the cast and enjoyable to use.

Chance: I have no idea how people determine this but she's still a headliner and household name. We have f*cking Banjo/Kazooie, so Lara is fair game. 70%?
 
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Lara Kraft Mac 'n Cheese

Chance: 20%
Hmm, let's see here. Gaming icon, a genre not yet represented in the fighter pass, and a female character, which, aside from Kazooie, the pass lacks so far. Quite a few shining graces for Lara, and she's owned by... oh. Square Enix? Yeah, that knocks her down quite a bit. Sorry, but with Hero already here representing Square in the pass, as well as Geno and Sora looming over her, she's in a tight spot. Not to mention, Square... hasn't been the most generous with content in Smash. What with Final Fantasy... basically lacking everything in the game, and Dragon Quest only having a bit more in terms of actually having spirits and a couple more songs (none of which are remixes mind you), I'm not gonna hold my breath on Square Enix content. It's a shame too, if it were just another company, I'd rate her quite higher.

Want: 50%
Eh, I respect Tomb Raider as an iconic series, but the fact of the matter is, I've never played a game from it in my life, so I'm gonna go neutral here. I will say I wouldn't mind her being here, she's a character I find quite deserving, but I have no connections with the series to rate any higher.

Predictions: Dragalia Lost
Hmm, certainly a series Nintendo has their hands in, but with no technical Nintendo platform appearances (though please correct me if I'm wrong)... 25%

Nominations:
Meowth x5
 
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Troykv

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SquareEnix recommended and gave the approval for the four Dragon Quest Hero alternate costumes; Masahiro Sakurai only intended to include Luminary. The reason they seem stingy with their music is because of licensing; the Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest composers own the rights to the songs.
Yeah, is always the thing with Uematsu and Sugiyama. The former has a very weird relationship with Square Enix, and the latter is known for being old school and stingy.

Also, both of them have symphonic orchestras.
 

Captain Shwampy

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SquareEnix recommended and gave the approval for the four Dragon Quest Hero alternate costumes; Masahiro Sakurai only intended to include Luminary. The reason they seem stingy with their music is because of licensing; the Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest composers own the rights to the songs.
Well, as long as every other Square franchise isn't like that, I suppose chances go up a bit, but it still doesn't take away from Hero being our Square Enix character in the pass. Realistically, I see Square characters having a better chance in pass 2.
 
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Looks like Arle is dead



https://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/interview/1075/723/index.html





Translation is poor, but it's basically saying the creator of Puyo Puyo doesn't want her in fighter games
Ah ah! That was 2017, so there's no guarantee times haven't changed, and the translation is that they didn't allow a Puyo Puyo fighting game for whatever reason. The director of Puyo Puyo currently, Hosoyamada, the guy who was interviewed, actually did want to see Arle in a fighting game if he proposed it. If anything it means he doesn't mind her getting in actual confrontations. And Smash isn't really that violent anyway.

What this means for Arle's chances is hard to determine, so... she's still staying with ratings for chance. If this was 2019, then yeah, it'd be a lethal blow, but it isn't.
 

Strider_Bond00J

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Lara Croft - one of gaming's most badass and iconic action ladies.

Chance: 35%
It's quite strange - despite being one of the most iconic video game characters of the 90s, people rarely bring her up in the context of Smash Bros. I suppose it might tie into the fact that Tomb Raider is not as strongly associated with Nintendo, having started on the PS1 like Cloud did. However Tomb Raider games and ports have appeared, so she definitely has the appearance on Nintendo platforms checked off.

I definitely don't expect her to be Fighter 5 since we already got Hero as our Square Enix character - but she might be a possible option for another Square Enix character as a post-pass fighter. Problem is that the Square Enix choices outside of her have a much larger and more vocal fanbase - Looking at both Sora, Geno or more Final Fantasy characters. She's got plenty of competition, but I hope that her legacy and impact is a point in her favor for being picked as a new SE character.

Her moveset I could see would be something that pulls from both her original games and the new ones - parkour and good mobility, guns and archery. It'd be pretty interesting to see what Sakurai and his team could create for her moveset

Want: 60%
Although Lara Croft isn't one of my most wanted characters, thinking about it a bit further, I think she's worthy of an invite to Smash Bros. Alongside Bayonetta and Samus, Lara would be another badass girl to see in Smash and a very welcome addition in my book.
 

Sid-cada

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Lara Croft

Chance - 10% - Iconic back in the day, but today? I feel like there's been something of a downturn. Her three most recent games have sold well, but have had diminishing returns. Combined with the competition between other notable franchises in the likes of Geno and 2B, it's hard to give her a complete good graces.

Want - 40% - She does nothing for me. I don't care for her, and I'm not exactly interested in her. While there is some notable mention of her, I find her disappointing in comparison to Square Enix's other choices.


Predictions

Dragalia Lost - 6.34% - Mobile gaming is going to be interesting...


Nominations

Kunio (River City) X5
 

Artix

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Lara Croft

Chance: 5%
She may be one of the most iconic characters, but being owned by Square Enix really puts her down. Not only does she face competition with a lot of Square Enix characters like Sora, Geno, 2B, Sephiroth and many others, but we already a Square Enix rep in the Fighter's Pass (Hero) and there's no way they're going to add another one in the same pass. Maybe on the second pass she might have a chance, but again, she has a lot of competition from Square Enix so I don't think she has a chance.

Want: 50%
I mean, I haven't played any Tomb Raider games, but I'm actually interested to see Lara Croft in Smash. She might have a very fun moveset involving survival skills, martial arts and many more. I'm not a fan of the character, but I would like to see how she plays in Smash.

Prediction:
Dragalia Lost - 5.71%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5
 
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Lara Croft: The face of female gaming protagonists.

Chance: 50%
Lara Croft is an Icon of gaming and an iconic character as a whole. She's the face of female gaming protagonists as far as I'm concerned and she's from the third best selling Square franchise but that said she still has a whole load of competition from Sephiroth to Sora to 2B to Geno. If Sakurai wanted to go for Iconic characters and characters who have a huge place in gaming I'm sure she's at the top of the list alongside Sephiroth and Sora for the number one go-to pick from Square but we don't know if he would want to go for just an icon of gaming for icon of gaming's sake or if he would want to go for fan favorite requests in which case he would not go for Lara Croft at all instead he'd go for Sora or Geno.

It's an honest 50/50 imo Tomb Raider is Square's third biggest franchise and has been a huge thing since the 90s but Sakurai may simply not care enough about Lara to put her in, can't think of a very fun and stand out-ish moveset for her or simply wants to go for fan requests like I said.

It's an honest 50/50 and it all comes down to who Sakurai wants to go for and what Sakurai wants to do.

Want: 40%
I'm indifferent to Lara Croft to be honest as she's an icon of gaming so she'd be fine with me in that sense and I'm sure Sakurai could do something fairly new with her but I'd rather have other Square characters like of course Geno or even characters like 2B or Sora just to make some friends of mine happy. Lara would be cool due to gaming icons sake but that's not the end all be all for me.

Nomination: Concept: First parties after the pass x5
 
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Ben Holt

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Lara
For this pass: 0%
Hero is our Square Enix rep for this pass.

For future DLC: 75%
Easily the most iconic female character not already in Smash (besides Ms. Pac-Man, lol). Sega triple dipped. Square Enix has already double dipped, so why not add their next legendary character.

Want: 90%
I "want" pretty much any character that brings a new moveset to the series, but Lara Croft is definitely one of my top 10.
 
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As far as Square-Enix goes I don't know if they would pick her or if Sakurai would pick her as Square would probably want to go down the line of their best selling franchises which next in line would be Kingdom Hearts or even double dip into Final Fantasy (please give us One Winged Angel already). Sakurai could go for Lara but he also has a lot of othe
The third best selling Square Enix franchise is Tomb Raider, not Kingdom Hearts.
 
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Really? Last time I checked it was Kingdom Hearts. Whoops. I'll go ahead and edit that part. Thanks!
Yup
You can find the source here from Square Enix themselves.
The Square Enix group of companies boasts a valuable portfolio of intellectual property including: FINAL FANTASY®, which has sold over 144 million units worldwide; DRAGON QUEST®, which has sold over 78 million units worldwide; TOMB RAIDER®, which has sold over 74 million units worldwide;
 

Calamitas

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Alright, ratings.

Luru Cruft - What do you mean, there's no "u" in her name??

Chance: 20%
Well, one thing is absolutely undeniable: Tomb Raider is one of the most famous and well-known video games franchises. Other people have already brought up the great sales and legacy of the series, and I have nothing to add to that on account of me being completely unfamiliar with it all. What I can say is that here in Germany, Lara Croft is (for whatever reason) one of the characters that are absolutely synonymous with gaming as a whole. As in, when you bring up video games to someone who's not really into gaming, it's likely that they'll be able to name her. Why the low rating, then? Simple - Smash has yet to get a western third-party rep. Of course, there's Banjo & Kazooie, but they are really in kind of a gray area for that as Rare was a Nintendo-owned developer for many years. So unless we get a western character that has never been owned by Nintendo, and doesn't have a strong association with them, I consider this a huge strike against her. What is also not helping is that we already had Square Enix content in DLC, and I'm not convinced that they'd double-dip. Or at least, that they wouldn't double-dip with her.

Want: 15%
Got no connection to the franchise. I wouldn't exactly be opposed to her, but she's far from someone I actually want as well.

Nominating Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5.

Predicting Dragalia Lost to get around 7.33%.
 

Jassassino

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I'd absolutely love Lara Croft to be in Smash. She's an icon and was the protagonist of one of the first games I ever played (even if I did royally suck at it.)
As hard as it is though, I'd love a lot more Square Enix characters before her and think she'd have a pale moveset in comparison to some of the characters they own. Playstation classic characters come to mind immediately. Raziel or Kain from The Legacy of Kain series I consider as Square characters which would have so much more appealing movesets and possibilities (though their chances are like 0.3%).
 
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Sari

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Day over.

Rate Concept: Dragalia Lost rep.

Predict Farmer from Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons.

----------

Some music to get into the Dragalia Lost mood:

 
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Getting lost on the way... eh, nah, no joke. I really don't have a lot to say about this one, I should expand my horizons.

Chance: Something like 15% to show up in this game, but in future installments I could see it. I dunno, but I just don't see it right now. Not really that notable, and I think Fire Emblem Heroes is the first in line for a Nintendo mobage rep.

Want: Abstain. Never played it, got plenty of other games to play. Doesn't seem like my type of game.

Sunflower x 5. Farmer... gonna lowball with 4.29%.
 
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What is the chance today is my Birthday? 100% (13/11)

What is the chance of Dragalia lost character in Smash?

I'll go 20%

We've yet to a brand new first party franchise as DLC, including Smash Wii U. But I expect a lot of DLC (16 to be exact) and I don't expect them to be third party.

My want is 20%

Never played it, not really interested in a mobile time sink, I feel bad enough that Mario Kart Tour has dragged me in.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction 3.1%
 
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Gacha-man

Chance: 9%

I honestly don't think we'll be seeing a character from a mobile game as DLC, at least not if he's the only first party character. Sakurai probably learned a valuable lesson from Corrin: if people hate the game, or they hate the character, don't put them in Smash (honestly, I'm surprised that had to be learned).

Other than that, Dragalia Lost was a hit, so maybe Nintendo pushes Sakurai to give it a shot, try to grow the audience - though Nintendo reportedly sees mobile games as just a way to introduce people to their games rather than as an end of themselves, so I don't think they would.

Plus, as far as advertising reps go, Euden is arguably way behind the pack. We still have Spring Man and Rex, both of whom are crazy popular. We also have Officer Howard and Byleth joining the fray, and then there's also the more oddball choices like Ring Fit or BoxBoy that could probably use the advertising.

Want: abstain
Honestly, I'm torn. On one hand, I see Smash as a celebration of Nintendo's history and Dragalia Lost is a part of it. Plus Euden would probably have a cool moveset.

On the other hand, gachas are a predatory, scummy, immoral practice that should be shunned and probably regulated/outlawed, and I certainly don't want to reward that kind of behavior, particularly in a developer that is otherwise a paragon of virtue and pro-consumerism.

So that's where I'm at.

Noms: whoever I did yesterday x5
Farmer prediction: 11% but it should be higher

What is the chance today is my Birthday? 100% (13/11)

What is the chance of Dragalia lost character in Smash?

I'll go 20%

We've yet to a brand new first party franchise as DLC, including Smash Wii U. But I expect a lot of DLC (16 to be exact) and I don't expect them to be third party.

My want is 20%

Never played it, not really interested in a mobile time sink, I feel bad enough that Mario Kart Tour has dragged me in.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction 3.1%
Happy birthday Mr. N! (Yo Sakurai, can we get Skull Kid as a birthday present here?)
 
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Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance 0 - Huh, a mobile game rep would be a surprise for sure. I don't think that's a genre of game that I'll ever see come to Smash. Had the same issue back in the days where we had someone saying a character from Granblue Fantasy was coming to Smash. Also a first party so that destroys it's chances for DLC5. For post pass though I really have a hard time seeing this happening either.

Want 0 - Not really a big fan of mobile games and never heard of this series before. Would rather have something else

Prediction Farmer - 8.39

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5
 
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Ninten x120
9-Volt x120
Rundas x115
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Aloy x100
Boss: Kracko x100
Riesz (Mana) x100

100 - 51

Concept: Any grass-type starter x91
Frogger x90
[Rerate] Steve x90
Glover x85
Sol Badguy x85
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x75
[Rerate] Geno x75
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x75
Ryo Hazuki x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Quote x62
Thrall (Warcraft) x60
Papyrus x56
[Rerate] Sora x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Francis York Morgan x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Sackboy x38
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
Earthworm Jim x26

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x20
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x15
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x15
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x15
Meowth x15
King Boo x13
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x10
Urbosa x9
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x5
Kunio (River City) x5
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Boss: Kracko and Riesz tie with Aloy for the seventh spot in the top.

Today's new nominees are a Mii Costume of Hollow Knight, Kunio, and a rerate of Crash Bandicoot. All with 5 noms.
 
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Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 18%
Dragalia Lost is an up and coming Nintendo owned IP that achieved success in the gacha infested mobile market. It certainly has a shot since it's a brand new successful IP. However I very much doubt we'll ever see any rep coming from this genre. From what I've seen of the fighters pass thus far, it seems advertisement is the least of priorities for Nintendo. A Dragalia Lost rep might happen in the future, but I doubt it for the current DLC.

Want: 15%
Ehh
I played the game and it was alright I suppose. If a rep comes it will be Euden no doubt, and he's pretty much Corrin 2.0. Euden doesn't interest me as a character or as a fighter.


Prediction: Farmer 10.5%
Nomination: Steve x5
 
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Dragalia Lost rep
Chance: 10%
An IP that's not in Smash yet and is technically first party, but at the same time I dunno if Nintendo wants to give it a slot - in terms of mobile, there are other Nintendo games that did better... Not sure if we'll ever get a mobile rep, but if we did, the only other options I see are an original character from FEH or a Granblue character. Compared to pretty much any third party IP, though... yeah, I don't really see it now.

Want: 1%
Eh... not really interesting in my eyes, but out of the non-Spirit promotion options, I guess that's to be expected. Unless we're getting these promotions, I'd rather we stick to third parties.

Predictions
Farmer: 13%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5
 

Sari

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Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 10%
I really don't see them adding in a mobile/gacha game rep at all. While Dragalia Lost has proven to be successful, they'd probably add someone from Granblue or another bigger mobile game if they're aiming to attract the gacha crowd. Though probably even more unlikely, there is also a chance they'd add a FE Heroes character like Alfonse or Fjorm if they're aiming for the gacha crowd since Heroes has been much more profitable.

Want: Abstain
I have enough mobile games on my plate so I never really tried out Dragalia Lost. Looks interesting but I have no connection with it so I'll abstain. Maybe I'll give it a try once I finish that SNK essay I promised to write.

Farmer chance prediction: 13.46%

Nominations:
Quote x5
 
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