Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 354: Game Awards expectations

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As promised, here are the calcs. Sorry about falling behind, but I can't say it didn't pay off as I aced all three exams. I will probably be doing these daily from now on.

Dragalia Lost rep
14.59% Chance, 26.19% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft Wunderwaft with 14.20%

Farmer
14.47% Chance, 50.00% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari Sari with 13.46%

League of Legends rep
20.17% Chance, 48.08% Want
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed Ninjaed by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 20.00%

Blaze the Cat
00.93% Chance, 29.00% Want
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire with 1.17%

Arle Nadja
34.79% Chance, 48.86% Want
Last time we rated her she got 11.72% Chance and 34.82% Want. Huge rise in chance, but that first time was after Joker and long before the announcement of more DLC, so it's honestly surprising that it was that high. As for the increase in want, I can only think of Super Puyo Puyo 2's inclusion in NSO introduced the series to a new audience - that, and the admirable work of fans who have very successfully argued Arle's case and constantly kept her in the discourse.
Winner of predictions was ShotoStar: Endgame ShotoStar: Endgame by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 35.00%

Valve rep
16.16% Chance, 58.18% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft Wunderwaft with 15.50%

After all these years, the holders of the legendary extra nominations!

Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
DaUsername DaUsername 52
Delzethin Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire 5
Ninjaed Ninjaed 5
Sari Sari 5
ShotoStar: Endgame ShotoStar: Endgame 5
Smashing Ramen Smashing Ramen 5
Troykv Troykv 15
Ultomato Ultomato 5
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 10
 

Sid-cada

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I think the greatest moment was Smash 4's first announcement.

A good show that made it seem like a great job hinting at what was to come. We got an utterly unexpected character in WFT, a character thought deconfirmed in Villiger, and the most requested third party character many thought with a chance in Mega Man, along with conformations with a large group of characters.

This, I feel, was about as good a start as any. This was the right amount and type of newcomers to show off, being the right mix of unexpected and wanted that told us the roster was going to be great. The roster seemed wide open for what could be put out, and I don't think I was in this big of a speculation frenzy before or sense.


Nominations

Kunio X5
 
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My favorite Smash memories usually comprised of seeing newcomer trailers as of Smash 4, so I can see what creative tagline would be used for each new character that was revealed. Another couple favorites was watching the Ultimate presentaction live for the first time…over a year and a half and it still gives me chills.

Nomination: Claude von Riegan x5
 

Sari

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I think everyone got to say what they wanted so I'll step in and end the day now.

Rate Prince of Persia.

Predict Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass

Megadoomer Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the Prince of Persia mood:

 

DanganZilla5

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Abstaining on Prince of Persia as I don't know anything about the series.

Predictions: Concept First-parties after Fighters Pass - 60%

Noms: Monokuma x5
 
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The other prince
Chance: 0.2%
I know very little about this series but if we were to get a Ubisoft rep I think he would lose priority to other potential candidates from that company. Assasins Creed is a the much bigger and more relevant series. Rabbids are more unanimous with Nintendo and Rayman has been requested for years.


Want: abstaining, I really don't know who this is

First-parties: 48.63%
Hollow knight costume x5
 

3DSNinja

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Prince
CHance:0%: Not happening. Assassin's Creed exists, and Rayman as well. Plus this franchise has been dead since 2008.
Want:50%: depends on what he is based on. The Sands trilogy would be cool, the reboot nah, and the classic games could be interesting. But the reboot is just a flat out no.
Nominations: Shadow x5
Predictions: First Party: 50%
 
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3DSNinja

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wait, he did?
wait...
it's just a endless runner game.
that doesn't really count, now does it? If the last NEW game we got was in 2010 (not counting the Prince of Persia 2 remake) then yeah, kinda dead for the moment.
 
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Sari

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Some hilarious joke involving Jake Gyllenhaal

Chance: 1%
If we are going to get a Ubisoft rep it will most likely be someone from Assassin's Creed. It's one of Ubisoft's most popular series so I don't see why Prince of Persia would get a character first. The last mainline game in the series was in 2010 and since then the Prince has only appeared in mobile remakes of the old games. Even if Ezio got into Smash, Rayman/Rabbids would probably be the next Ubisoft series to get in.

Want: 10%
While I have no connection to the Prince himself, I've always been a fan of Arabian characters in media and I even played a bit of one of the older games back in middle school. When it comes to getting a Ubisoft character though, my most wanted is Rayman after which I'd probably settle for Ezio.

First party chance prediction: 46.93%

Nominations:
Quote x10
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Prince of Persia

Chance: 3% - The Prince is a series with plenty of legacy and a decent amount of representation on Nintendo systems, so he initially seems like a character that'd be on Sakurai's radar. However, since the DLC was chosen by Nintendo, I doubt they'd see any benefit in adding him. Aside from the mobile runner from last year, he hasn't had a real game in several years, and his last Nintendo appearance was on the Wii. So neither that nor relevancy is on his side. Furthermore, he has stiff inter-company competition with both Assassin's Creed AND Rayman, both of which are much more popular and requested. With all of this put together it just doesn't seem likely.

Want: 80% - As long as he isn't based on his terrible reboot design, I think having a character with a Persian aesthetic would be super cool, and could make for a very beautiful stage as well. While I've never played the Prince of Persia games myself, my Dad absolutely loved the originals, so this is a character that we could bond over!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10


Predictions:
First Party Chance - 47.49%
 
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Mysterio

Chance: 8%
Not great, and especially not for Fighter 5 as Verge thanosed all them Ubisoft guys, but I'd say his chances aren't too shabby. A series with a very long story, including Nintendo presence, some absolute classics, a healthy dose of influence in gaming, and I don't think it can be argued that the series is iconic (it got a Disney movie!). But Assassin's Creed has supplanted it, and while Beyond Good & Evil 2 and recent statements from Ubisoft have given me hope for its return (and Splinter Cell's, while we're at it), at this point it doesn't feel like a living series.

Plus competition is strong, Assassin's Creed is a juggernaut, who knows if Sakurai ever stops considering Rayman a joke, and if we're talking huge influential Ubisoft franchises Sam Fisher is also in play.

Want: 90%
Play The Sands of Time and then come back to me. The Prince would be freaking awesome.

Noms: Noctis x5
First parties prediction: dunno I'm just gonna do 50%
 
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Wunderwaft

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Prince of Persia

Chance: 10%
The Prince faces three large problems. The first is that he's not from the largest IP of Ubisoft (that goes to Assassin's Creed). The second is that he's not the most fan requested character from Ubisoft (that goes to Rayman). And the third is that his franchise is currently in limbo with no clear future. However the franchise got a mobile game last year which shows Ubisoft still wants to use the IP, so perhaps it might come back to full glory someday.

With that said, there is still some pros the prince has over the rest. His series is extremely old, the original Prince of Persia released in 1989 and has appeared in Nintendo consoles back then. The series has been a major inspiration for many games like Assassin's Creed and Tomb Raider, Assassin's Creed in particular originated from ideas for a potential Prince of Persia sequel.


Want: 65%
I enjoyed the Sands of Time trilogy. These games were extremely charming and fun to play. I'm interested in seeing how The Prince could be incorporated in Smash.


Nomination: Heihachi x5
Prediction: First Parties 44.37%
 
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THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 349: Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass
Day 350: Ninten (Mother)
Day 351: Dovahkiin (The Elder Scrolls)
Day 352: The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game)
Day 353: Boss: Kracko (Kirby) & Geno (Mario)
Day 354: 9-Volt (WarioWare) & Rundas (Metroid)
Day 355: Riesz (Mana) & Frogger (Frogger)


So, uhh, oh boy. We had 4 characters tie for seventh place, so effectively we have 10 characters for 7 days. A lot will have to settle for double days, but to be fair, only the first place was not a tie, so I think nobody's being cheated here.

Anyways, The Horrible Goose and Boss: Kracko passed 9-Volt at the last minute, along with a surprise entry by Geno in top gear. Other than that, everyone else held on, so the big tie wasn't broken.

Your new top seven consists of Steve, Protector, Thrall, Aloy, No more stages beyond the Pass, Any grass-type starter, and Quote.


[Rerate] Steve x115
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Thrall (Warcraft) x105
Aloy x100
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x100
Concept: Any grass-type starter x98
[Rerate] Quote x97

100 - 51

Sol Badguy x95
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x90
Glover x85
Francis York Morgan x85
[Rerate] Sora x81
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Sackboy x63
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x60
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Heihachi x50
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x50
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x40
Kunio (River City) x40
[Rerate] Dante x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Akira Howard x30
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x30
Earthworm Jim x28
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x25
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x25
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Meowth x22
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
King Boo x19
Urbosa x18
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x15
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
Freddy Fazbear x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
Boss: Ender Dragon x2

Claude von Riegan and the Prince of All Cosmos roll out of the under 25 club.
 
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Prince of Persia

Chance 1 - Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe but I really dont think so. Verge seemingly killed Ubisoft for DLC 5 and even though we have post pass DLC I have a hard time seeing an Ubisoft character getting in that's not Ezio or Rayman. I honesty wouldn't be surprised if there's just no Ubisoft rep at all either

Want 10 - Wouldn't be the worst pick but there's a lot others Id rather have

Predict First Parties After the Pass - 40 percent

Noms
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5
 
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Sari

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Imagine if Dovahkiin gets revealed at the game awards a few days after we rate him, how funny would that be?
During the rerate schedule that was made after last year's November 1st Direct, we were actually going to rate Joker. The TGAs happened about 20 days before he was going to get rated so it never happened. I imagine a 10% chance score would've been considered to be abnormally high at the time.
 
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SKX31

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Ummm, which Dynasty does he belong to? The Achaemenid? Sasanian? Safavid?* Who cares? (Prince of Persia):

Chance: 5 % during Ultimate, 10 % Smash 6.

He's got style, and he's got grace, that's for sure. Whether his classic incarnation or his Post-Sands of Time selves. Aside from what others have said, there's tons of room for a moveset here - what with a scimitar behaving differently from the standard broadswords or katanas. Any time manipulation would be a new inclusion as long as other characters using it (like Tracer) doesn't get in before him.

The obstacles before him isn't limited to other franchises being considered before the Prince. But they're by far the biggest obstacles - Assassin's Creed shares many of the same niches PoP does. While the two have very significant differences, both are [edit] video game series with a historical bent and often a large focus on swordplay and acrobatics. So it's a tough ask, but the Prince is very much a major piece of the video game industry. So I won't count him out completely whether for Ultimate's DLC or Smash 6. I do imagine his chances are bigger for the latter in case Ubisoft does get a foot in the door.

Want: 75 %

Perfectly fine with him! Represents both the 80s and the early 2000s very well, He's got a lot of potential to be a very interesting character, and some of PoP's games are still great like Sands of Time.

Noms: Thrall x5

Predictions: First party Post-Pass 30 %

*(Actual Persian / Iranian dynasties. The Achaemenid is the stereotypical Persian Empire in popular thought. Ancient Greece was heavily influenced by them, whether in war or city states vying for Persia's help. It got ridicolous at points:

"In 387 BC, then, the Spartan admiral Antalkidas took the sea with a Persian-funded fleet to take on a Persian-funded fleet that had destroyed a Persian-funded fleet that had destroyed the Athenian fleet. "

The Sasanians were one of Rome's fiercest rivals and the Safavids were Persia's / Iran's post-Roman peak.)
 
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Ummm, which Dynasty does he belong to? The Achaemenid? Sasanian? Safavid?* Who cares? (Prince of Persia):

Chance: 5 % during Ultimate, 10 % Smash 6.

He's got style, and he's got grace, that's for sure. Whether his classic incarnation or his Post-Sands of Time selves. Aside from what others have said, there's tons of room for a moveset here - what with a scimitar behaving differently from the standard broadswords or katanas. Any time manipulation would be a new inclusion as long as other characters using it (like Tracer) doesn't get in before him.

The obstacles before him isn't limited to other franchises being considered before the Prince. But they're by far the biggest obstacles - Assassin's Creed shares many of the same niches PoP does. While the two have very significant differences, both are stealth series with a historical bent and often a large focus on swordplay and acrobatics. So it's a tough ask, but the Prince is very much a major piece of the video game industry. So I won't count him out completely whether for Ultimate's DLC or Smash 6. I do imagine his chances are bigger for the latter in case Ubisoft does get a foot in the door.

Want: 75 %

Perfectly fine with him! Represents both the 80s and the early 2000s very well, He's got a lot of potential to be a very interesting character, and some of PoP's games are still great like Sands of Time.

Noms: Thrall x5

Predictions: First party Post-Pass 30 %

*(Actual Persian / Iranian dynasties. The Achaemenid is the stereotypical Persian Empire in popular thought. Ancient Greece was heavily influenced by them, whether in war or city states vying for Persia's help. It got ridicolous at points:

"In 387 BC, then, the Spartan admiral Antalkidas took the sea with a Persian-funded fleet to take on a Persian-funded fleet that had destroyed a Persian-funded fleet that had destroyed the Athenian fleet. "

The Sasanians were one of Rome's fiercest rivals and the Safavids were Persia's / Iran's post-Roman peak.)
Prince of Persia isn't a stealth series, the original games are cinematic platformers (iirc it invented the genre), and the Sands of Time trilogy is more action-adventure with a heavy focus on platforming.
 

BowserKing

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Prince of Persia

Chance: 5%. Thanks to a few rumors, the chance of him getting in the fighter's pass is null. Besides if any Ubisoft character is going to get in, it's Ray-Man. He has a chance, but it's slim and outside the fighter's pass.

Want: 50%. Would be fun to play as, with some useful skills. I don't know much about the character, so I'm leaving it at that.

Prediction: First-Parties after fighter's pass: 75%

Noms: 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon, 1 for Rival Pokémon Trainer and 2 for Giygas
 

Calamitas

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I'm gonna be abstaining on Prince of Persia, both in terms of chance and want. I barely know anything about the series, which is why I don't think it's fair for me to just slap it with a 0% want.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Character x5

Predicting First-Party Characters after the pass to be around 59.98%.
 
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Prince
I'll go 2% chance and 0% want
There are bigger franchises from Ubisoft, and more popular ones among the smash fan base. And it seems highly unlikely he's fighter 5 due to circumstances and I who knows what direction they'll take afterwards

Prediction first party characters 66%

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5 (I hope we rate this soon. We might get vital information soon)
 
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Prince of Persia

Chance: 3%

Regardless of Vergeben saying Ubiosoft isn't FP5, Prince of Persia doesn't have a lot going for a possible inclusion outside of the Fighter Pass. Although the original Prince of Persia is an SNES classic game and seem to have been fairly praised enough for people to remember the games, Ubisoft doesn't seem to have any interest with the series anymore. I can't picture Ubisoft wanting to add him over an AC protag, a Rabbid, or someone from the Tom Clancy games.

Want: 26%

I have no feelings towards Prince of Persia and the franchise, so this want rating is fairly low. However, I will say I'll be more interested with him in Smash than Rayman since at least it's someone that isn't seen as a possibility for DLC and would probably have a favorable moveset for me than the limbless eggplant. That's all I got to say about that.

----------------------
Predictions:
First Party Character - 64%
----------------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5
 

Sari

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Day over.

Rate Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass

Predict Ninten from Mother/Earthbound

Megadoomer Megadoomer

----------

For today I've posted a bunch of songs that are split-up into two categories.

First, here are songs relating to some first party candidates whose games were created during the Switch's lifetime:


Second, here are songs relating to some popular requests of first party characters that were created before the debut of the Switch:

 
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I literally decided to skip PoP because I really had nothing to say, but since I can still one-hour him...

Mr. Hour, unless that one isn't the one anymore.

Chance: 5%. Maybe he could happen, but there's a problem for him that's insurmountable. Ezio and the Rabbids have casual support way more than him, and Rayman himself dominates Smash discussion for Ubisoft characters. So, I really don't think Sakurai would want him unless he really wanted him. Though, word is he won't be Fighter Pass 5, so I doubt it.

Want: 20%, if only because the games looked interesting. Rewinding time might make for a fun moveset, but I think I might be thinking of the wrong guy.

No noms yet, because now it's time for the actual day:

Mario Party 1 (this is first parties at all, right? If this was only First Parties after the pass I'd be way more negative)

Chance: 80%. I can think of way too many solid candidates who have lots of fan support and wide public knowledge. Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Rex & Pyra, Dixie Kong, and Isaac (Rex and Isaac might not be examples of the latter but defo the former) among others I've certainly missed. In addition, at some point the amount of licensing fees for the third parties if DLC was all third parties would be complete chaos and not something Nintendo would want that much. Then we have Three Houses and Sword/Shield, which I actually do not know if they're coming. But it seems people want them and they're Nintendo's flagship RPG franchises (Xenoblade being up and coming), so I'd say they've got a shot too.

Want: 95%. Even assuming Paper Mario isn't among those who become DLC (the reason I didn't give a full hundo), many people are getting their wishes to come true. And there's plenty of options left, so I wouldn't say Nintendo's hit the bottom of the barrel. Again, characters like Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Dixie Kong only sound unimpressive put next to freaking Master Chief and Steve. Really, they're pretty popular and very well known to several people, and a lot of people would be almost, or just, and in some cases even more excited to have them around.

If I can have noms for both, Sunflower x 5 and Lloyd x 5. If I only get noms for the current day, prioritize Lloyd.
 

DanganZilla5

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Concept: First parties after the Fighters Pass

Chance: 70%

I don't see why not. In fact, I see it as likely. There are still highly requested characters such as Waluigi, Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Rex, and Elma that are not playable yet. While I think 3rd parties will make up most of the DLC characters, this is still a Nintendo centric game after all. There is still demand and money to be made from first party characters. Plus, Fire Emblem Three Houses has not gotten a spirit event yet despite how long that game has been released and how big it is, which is suspicious. Not to mention, it's much easier getting characters you already own into the game than negotiating with 3rd party companies. In fact, I could see a future fighters pass be all 1st parties.

I was tempted to give this a 80% or 90%, but judging by how Smash 4's DLC and the fighters pass look right now, it's possible Sakurai might just be satisfied with the 1st party lineup. However, he did want Rex in the game and while he is a Mii costume, he came as a bonus to the fighters pass. I theorized that Sakurai might not have been sure if he wanted to create more fighters after the fighters pass, so he gave Rex a Mii costume to throw the fans a bone. However, with the announcement of more DLC and wanting to please the fans, Sakurai might see this as an opportunity to upgrade Rex to a playable character.

Overall, there is a lot going for 1st parties and even with the big focus and demand for 3rd party characters, I can't see a future where we don't get at least a few more 1st parties.

Want: 70%

I prefer 3rd parties as most of my most wanted characters are 3rd party, but I think if we got a couple more characters like Waluigi, Rex, and Bandana Dee, that would really round out the roster and make it feel truly ultimate.

Predictions: Ninten - 7%

Noms: Monokuma x5
 
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Concept: First Parties After the Pass

Chance: 80%
This extra DLC started after the demand for more DLC after the Fighter's Pass was announced, and I'm sure Sakurai was going to be content with the Pass, since its characters were originally decided on during planning.

Want: 100%
I had wished Nintendo characters would be part of the Fighter's Pass, but knew they wouldn't be and came to terms. However, when more DLC was announced, my pavlovian had basically ascended, and my hope was restored. And the amount of love and detail that went into the recent characters could possibly be worked into 1st parties as well, and I'd be MORE than okay with a gimmick that stays true to their source material.

In fact, there's one first party in particular that I made a support thread for about a month ago.

Ninten: 0.1%

Noms: Claude Rerate x5
 
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