Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 354: Game Awards expectations

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
255
Valve rep

Chance: 1%
Why of all companies out there would Valve be the one getting a rep? There aren't many seats while there are many suitors. You need to have great moveset potential (that is, bringing something fun, fresh and unique to Smash... and be fun), also the standards are pretty specific, especially as DLC. I don't see why Nintendo would go out of its way to bring in Valve of all things.

I'm giving it a very low score because unlike League of Legends, there's no "goofy" side to these games usually. Portal and mainly Team Fortress 2 are the only ones I could see make it in, but I'm not sure they're that popular in Japan. I've read you can play Team Fortress 2 in pretty much any cyber café over there. Dunno if that's true. If TF2 is more popular than I thought, I'll have to revise my score to 10% tops. Because there still are so many other great reps.

Want: 30%
I'm not a big fan of many Valve games. I did play the Half-Life series or DotA 2, but I'm not a fan of first person shooters in general. Not that I'm bad at it, but it's simply not my cup of tea. Still, Smash isn't an FPS and a TF2 rep (like Heavy) or Chell could be quite amusing indeed.

Predictions: Prince of Persia - 2.5%
People here can be varying degrees of generous but I think Prince of Persia is too much of a stretch to be very high.

Nominations: Riesz x5
 
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The right man in the wrong place

Chance: 1%
I can't see Valve getting a character into Smash. As things are, their games are not very popular in Japan, they don't show up on Nintendo consoles. I don't see any character or franchise - much less an entire company - without a presence on Nintendo getting in, especially not a Western one. I don't see that making Nintendo's shortlist, and frankly I don't see that being a priority for Sakurai either - he clearly wants to favor Japanese gaming, or at least gaming that the Japanese could get into.

Would love to be wrong, but honestly unless Valve pulls a Microsoft I wouldn't consider their characters much likelier than Sony's.

Want: 80%
I'd love Gordon Freeman, the Half-Life games are masterpieces and if Smash wants to be the end-all gaming crossover, not considering Half-Life would be a huge blow to its credibility. Same with Portal, really, though it'd be hard to make a moveset for Chell. I do really like TF2 but I think it's a terrible fit for Smash.

Noms: first parties X5
Prince of Persia prediction: 9.8%
 

BowserKing

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
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winnipeg
Valve Rep

Chance: 10%. A Rep would be a surprise, the question is who could it be from? Half-Life, Team Fortress and Portal are quite popular franchises and the competition between each over would be fierce, even more against other fighters. Lots of choices to pick.

Want: 50 to 55%, depending on franchise. I think they would be fun to play as, with some great stages and music. Which fighter would it be, I don't know just yet. There is potential however.

Prediction: Prince of Persia: 10%

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokémon Pokeball Promotion and 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon
 
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
1,854
Valve rep

Chance: 40%
Valve is a company that has become synonymous with PC gaming. When you think of PC you'll think of Valve. They are the creators of Steam after all, and Steam is the largest distribution platform for PC gaming. So big in fact that the number of registered users is over 1 billion. If Nintendo ever wanted to get a character that targets the PC audience then Valve is their number one company to go to. And if Valve gets a rep then it's going to be Gordon Freeman without a doubt.

Half-Life is what put Valve on the map, it's what put Steam on the map. Half-Life 2 was the first video game that required the installation of Steam. The song that plays during the beginning of every Valve game intro is Hazardous Environment, a song from Half-Life. And now we have Half-Life Alyx, Valve's first Triple A video game using VR. The fact that Valve used Half-Life for their first VR video game instead of their other IPs shows how important the series is to them.

So why should Nintendo pick Gordon Freeman? There's a myriad of reasons I can think of. The first is the obvious one, Gordon would bring a lot of attention from PC gamers who are interested in the Half-Life franchise, and the point of DLC is to sell. There hasn't been a FPS shooter rep yet, and there hasn't been a character that interests the PC gamer audience. Gordon would attract the attention of these two groups. There's a reason why Square Enix chose Gordon Freeman as the exclusive playable skin for their PC release of FFXV.

The second point I want to make is that Half-Life has been very important to not just PC gaming, but to gaming as a whole. The first Half-Life was revolutionary when it came out, it was an FPS that had incredible AI at the time and with a narrative that didn't obstruct gameplay. The game showed how video games can have strong narrative storytelling as part of it of it's identity. The goldsrc engine resulted in the creation of a lot of mods, including Counter Strike. If that wasn't enough, Half-Life 2 came out 6 years later and it took the world by storm. The physics engine shocked a lot of people with how good and realistic it was, Half-Life 2 had the physics engine play a role in it's gameplay with solving puzzles and defeating enemies. There's a reason why this game won the "game of the decade" award. You might see a pattern with how when a new Half-Life game comes out, it changes the gaming industry and introduces new concepts and ideas that we haven't seen before. And after the reveal of Half-Life: Alyx and it's incredible VR technology, that only reinforces the idea even further.

If you want to see a video that explain more in further details how the Half-Life franchise impacted gaming heavily then I recommend watching this video:

A final point I want to make is that Masahiro Sakurai has talked about Half-Life before. In this interview Sakurai goes into detail about what he thinks of the game, how much he enjoyed it, and how it blew his mind away. Now it's granted that Sakurai has praised a lot of games before and this doesn't guarantee a Smash invitation, but the fact that he acknowledged and praised Half-Life is a plus to Gordon's chances. It means that if Nintendo asked Sakurai on Gordon Freeman he wouldn't say no since he has a positive outlook on the character and the series.



Want: 100%
Gordon Freeman is one of my most wanted character in Smash. Half-Life is what got me into PC gaming in the first place. Gordon has weaponry that would fit well with Smash and also bring new ideas at the same time. Tell me another video game character that uses a gravity gun to manipulate the physics and gravity of objects. Gordon would not only be an incredible reveal from a gaming icon point of view, but he would also be incredible from a gameplay point of view.


Prediction: Prince of Persia 14%
Nomination: Heihachi x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
227
Valve Rep

Chance: 10%

I'm not really trusting that new leak. After the Grinch leak and with the Cacomallow leak having a good chance of being fake, I am very suspicious against any leaks. With that said, Valve has made a mark on the industry. Half Life, Team Fortress, Portal, and to an extent, Left 4 Dead have all made a big impact on the industry. Despite Valve not being able to count to 3, these games are still being talked about and played years after their release and that's saying something. If Sakurai wanted to take a character from the PC market, it would likely be from Valve. Plus, Gabe Newell himself said that he would be fine with letting Gordon Freeman, and assumingly other characters, into Smash if Nintendo asked. I do have a gut feeling that we could see a Valve rep sometime in the future.

However, what really hurts Valve's chances is that they have zero history on Nintendo. Unless if you count that Lego Dimensions Portal pack which is on Wii U, but that is a very long stretch. Plus, Valve is a western company which as we all know, automatically lowers their chances as most Smash characters are from japanese companies. Not to mention the fact that most of their games are FPS games, which is not a very popular genre in Japan. Also, I don't hear too much requests for a Valve rep, probably because for the longest time, a lot of people didn't believe that a Valve rep was even possible.

Want: 95%

I'm not the biggest fan of Valve's games, but having someone like Gordon Freeman or Heavy would be huge. It would certainly diversify the roster as we don't have any PC representation yet. I do think it would be those two characters or someone else like the Scout because I don't see how the Portal gun would work in Smash and Resident Evil would certainly be the zombie game represented instead of Left 4 Dead. Gordon Freeman would be dope and a Team Fortress 2 stage sounds very fun with some great gimmick potential and battles going on in the background. Same with Half Life. Maybe they will give us the Terry treatment and give us music from multiple Valve games (I'm not expecting anywhere near 50 tracks though). That would be awesome.

Plus, if a Valve character got in before an announcement of a Switch port, that would open the door for characters like Master Chief and PlayStation characters.

Predictions: Prince of Persia - 6%

Noms: Geno x5
 
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Sari

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Concept: Valve rep

Chance: 15%
Steam is the largest PC gaming distributer so it's safe to say that they are very recognizable across the globe. The localization of various games on Steam has even resulted in increased popularity of the platform in Japan over the past few years which has been growing by the year. Certain Valve games like Dota 2 are also extremely popular in places like China, while CS:GO usually has +600,000 people playing it daily. On top of all this, Sakurai has even talked about Half-Life 2 in the past, saying that it blew him away and that it was more than just your run-of-the-mill FPS game. If Nintendo plans on bringing in the PC crowd then a Valve character is their way to go.

Something else I should bring up is that Valve has shown interest to working with Nintendo in the past. Gabe Newell's son said that there were attempts with the two companies to collaborate back in the Wii days. Gabe even flew to the Nintendo HQ where Gabe's son got to play Super Mario Galaxy with Miyamoto. Although the past deals didn't work out, the interest has always been there; for example the Half-Life: Tactics game that was scrapped was speculated to be on Switch.

Now for the bad: although PC gaming has become big again in Japan, most of Valve's actual games don't seem to be that popular there from what I could find. Valve itself has little relation to Nintendo, with their only connection being the Portal content in Lego Dimensions and Portal Bridge Constructor being on Switch. I know people will say that we have Cloud and Joker, but SE and Sega/Atlus have a ton of connection to Nintendo. It's hard to see Nintendo working with a Western company that they have little history with. Yes I know we have Banjo from Microsoft but that's only after immense fan demand for the character since the Smash 64 days.

If we were to get a Valve rep I think they would prioritize Gordon, Chell, and Heavy in that order. Gordon would have priority since Half-Life started everything and his reveal would break the internet. Chell would be next due to Portal's massive acclaim and even having a bit of Nintendo presence for whatever that's worth. Heavy is popular but it's become more evident over time that Valve has pretty much given up on TF2, which is why I honestly don't see him making it in over the other two.

Want: 100%
At +2,100 hours, TF2 is my most played game of all time so you bet I'd be down for Heavy. Half-Life is also my favorite single-player FPS so I would totally be hyped for Gordon as well. Those are really the only two Valve characters I would want, as I think Portal would be better off represented through a stage instead of a character.

Prince of Persia chance prediction: 8.66%

Nominations:
Quote x5
 
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Messages
6,210
A reminder that today is the last day before the top seven gets locked.

Ninten x125
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x125
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x125
9-Volt x120
Rundas x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x115
Boss: Kracko x115

150 - 101

Riesz (Mana) x110
Frogger x110
[Rerate] Steve x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
[Rerate] Geno x100
Thrall (Warcraft) x100
Concept: Any grass-type starter x98
Sol Badguy x90
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x90
[Rerate] Quote x87
Glover x85
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x85
[Rerate] Sora x81
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Francis York Morgan x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Sackboy x63
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x45
[Rerate] Heihachi x45
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x40
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
Kunio (River City) x30
Earthworm Jim x28
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x22
Meowth x22
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x20
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
King Boo x19
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Urbosa x15
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass wins its tie with Rundas and The Horrible Goose, passes 9-Volt, and ties with Ninten and Dovahkiin for first place. Boss: Kracko wins his own tie with Riesz, sending her flying from the top seven and tying with Rundas and the Goose for fifth.

Today's sole new nominee is Terra Branford, with 5 noms.
 

SKX31

Smash Ace
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Inside this Valve, there's an Orange Box. It costs $400 000 to keep this Valve open, for 12 sec-*BOMB HAS BEEN PLANTED* (Valve Rep)

Chance: 25 % (and that's disbeliving the leak)

Now, there are some things which have not been discussed so far. Quite a bit actually.

When it comes to Half-Life, its influence is really really visible within the company itself. Not just because of Steam, but also because modding created two games that helped cement Half-Life's legacy. Counter-Strike and Team Fortress both originated as Half-Life mods. Even though I believe CS has 0 % as a playable character (see below) it's incredibly influential and has been popular in Russia for seemingly forever (alongside Dota 2, see below). I'll talk about TF2 likewise below.

What Portal has is a completely reworked Gravity Gun - turning it into one of the most known puzzle-solving tools out there in the Portal Gun. This is both a massive blessing and a massive curse: On one hand, it would be a one of a kind movement option. On the other, it carries massive risk (especially off stage) even to Chell herself should she get in. Still, it's got ample opportunity: If Valve shows up into Smash, Portal has a really good chance of getting at least some content in. If it's as a playable character, it'll be likely balanced around a max distance between the two portals or some other limit to prevent shenaningas.

It's understandable why people gravitate towards TF2 when it comes to Smash. Not only the most visibly cartoon-y of the bunch, we also have Garry's Mod, the native weapons (Like Heavy's Sandvich) and the "Meet the" vids to thank for it I'm guessing. If anything, it gave the characters a certain feel like they belong in Smash. Heavy is the primary pick for most, but characters like Scout could feasibly work. That said, TF2's current state can be best described as "Needs a major shot in the arm or TF2 Episode 1: Because Overused but still Relevant Joke"), so if TF2 gets in it's likely on the back of a port or a new game.

And we come to Dota 2, which is really in the background (I love that game though, and I've loved it since the original Dota way back. Warning, massive amounts of gushing ahead). Since Valve aquired Dota's license in 2009, it has developed Dota 2 to be one of its primary cash cows / ever green titles. With it being Steam's top game for the past 6 years. But cash ain't the only thing Dota 2's notable for:

*It has two of the original Dota's three developers working on it. The third and current, IceFrog, has worked on Dota and after that Dota 2 since 2005. Guinsoo, the second, has instead worked with LoL since 2009. FTR, the devs have snuck in quite a few references: Aghanim's Scepter is a spell-upgrading item and one of Dota's most known items, Linken's Sphere automatically blocks one spell targeted on you ever so often on a short cooldown. And there's one hero's model being outright based on FF10's Kimahri Ronso (Phantom Lancer, who spams illusions and is incredibly hard to kill if left unchecked) as well as one hero (Juggernaut) having Omnislash as his ultimate complete with the animation. Console games are not ignored even if Dota's never crossed the line.

*Dota 2 has an infamous rivalry with LoL (approaching SNES / Genesis levels of heated), Still, Dota and Dota 2 have had immense impact on LoL through ancestry and subsuquent rivalry (and vice versa). While LoL is a carefully manicured and maintained tree when it comes to its design, Dota 2's an epileptic tree where everyone's designed like :ulthero: is. Or "Everyone's broken, so no one is".

*Dota's heavily associated with the e-sports scene and it's one of Russia's absolute favorite video games. Period. China and Southeast Asia also love the game to bits, and MOBAs have stayed around worldwide for a decade at this point. My linked sig is from a Phillipine cast that became insanely memetic even in the English-speaking community.

There are still some heavy questions and problems surrounding Dota 2. MOBAs are niche-to-nonexistent in Japan which alone shuts down its chances in most peoples' minds. And, which hero do you even choose as a playable rep (I'm personally leaning towards Lina the Slayer, partly because she's an early poster child / "main" character and partly because she's very much based on the Slayers anime. In fact, she's the closest to a Slayers representative one could get. Gets around the Japan problem somewhat.) Also, how does one design for characters with no verticality normally?

FTR, I'm counting Counter-Strike and L4D as having 0 % chance of having a playable representative in Smash. Counter-Strike has two really significant problems beyond its use of real life weaponry (like the AK-47): the playable teams in this 5-on-5, 30 rounds per game economic war (first to 16 wins) are literally named Terrorists and Counter-Terrorists (possibly creating another version of the Mai problem), and a lot of maps in CS are based on real life locales. Left 4 Dead, umm, yeah. It's a shame too, but unless Valve plans on reviving L4D it's going to be overshadowed by not only its in-company competition, but also Resident Evil.

Could I see nods and cameos from these two? L4D, yes. Counter-Strike's much wonkier because they need to find something outright fictional. L4D though could see Spirits (depending on the stage allowing crossovers) or even music.

Valve's made moves recently - not just on VR, also getting onto the mobile scene with Dota Underlords. What's to say Valve won't make the jump to Nintendo? While they have vitually no history, there's that possibility of a sea change. It's really difficult to say, but if the Half-Life Tactics and Dota Underlords coming to the Switch rumors actually gained some traction before dissipating...

What's to say it's impossible?

Want: 100(0000...) %

No matter who it is, if it's Valve... SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY. Yea, I know Valve as a company has allowed or done quite a lot of bad things, but we're talking the characters here. All of them, because Sakurai choosing them would reward creativity. Remember: Half-Life spawned mods, TF2 and Dota 2 were born as mods. And Portal came around due to tinkering with the Gravity Gun and the Havok engine. Dota 2 is one of my pipedream picks - in fact, the pipedream pick - and I would not mind the other Valve franchises. At all. They're also in that bolded territory.

Predictions: PoP (Prince of Persia) 5,1 %

Nominations: Thrall x5
 
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Valve representative
Chance: 25%
They created a Steam, that's known worldwide , and many popular western franchises. Sakurai and Nintendo are obviously aware of them, but I have my doubts that they would actively want any Valve characters. Without being as highly requested as Banjo nor as genre-defining as Doom, I think Nintendo would have overlooked them when choosing the DLC.
Want: 90%
All of them would be solid picks and would fit in perfectly with the rest of the cast. The characters are distinct and memorable, and I feel like each of them have the opportunity to introduce genuinely new mechanics to Smash. I think any of them would be a fun, solid, addition.
 
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Valve Rep
Chance: 5%
Want: 95% (mainly for Heavy)

While Valve created Steam, and is a massively successful company, the biggest thing that holds Valve back is the fact that the company has yet to have a single game on a Nintendo console. The company is extremely popular in Japan, which does help their chances.

Heavy is my one and only choice for a Valve rep. I'd be cool with some other choices, but Heavy is definitely my absolute favorite. His high power moveset, good music selection, and absolutely hilarious voice lines would make him an amazing addition.

Predictions: Prince of Persia: 2.15%

Untitled Goose x5
(Found a new character I really want for Smash that I'm gonna start nominating next. Take a guess!)
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
491
Abstain. I don't know enough about Valve to say if they have a chance. That being said, they've certainly left their mark on the industry, so they have that going for them.

Nominations: Boss: Kracko x5
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
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Valve Representation


Chance: 5% - Valve has certainly made a mark on the industry, and like all gaming historians Sakurai has brought up Half-Life on a couple of occasions, but at the same time he's just super into games in general so I wouldn't call this special treatment. Furthermore, there is a surprising amount of overlap between Nitendo and Valve fans in the west but it isn't huge (but is still significant). Everyone knows Valve's achivements so I'm gonna say what hasn't already been said. PC gaming, while seeing a sort of resurgence in Japan, still isn't too big, and Valve's games are mostly PC-only (as far as I can tell they don't port to consoles anymore) and are mostly shooters (in fact most of them are Half Life 2 mods), ticking two boxes that a Japanese audience doesn't really care for. Furthermore, aside from Gabe's visit to Nintendo HQ mentioned earlier, and the Portal content in Lego Dimensions, Valve has little to no history with Nintendo, and I do not see Nintendo going to them for a character over a company that they do have history with, or at least a company that's been supportive of the Switch (ala Bethesda). Compare to Cloud and Joker, while they themselves have little history with Nintendo, their owners have a TON of history with Nintendo, and Shin Megami Tensei and Final Fantasy have plenty of games on Nintendo systems. Valve has neither of those. Valve does have another big release coming up, but it is both PC and VR exclusive, so I do not see it reaching a huge audience, especially in Japan, due to the price of VR headsets these days. Being a Western developer is probably the final nail in the coffin, as aside from Banjo, we do not know if we'll even be getting another Western character. I know a lot of people here love TF2 and Half-Life, but even without that disproven leak let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Want: 0% - I've never ben much of a fan of Valve's games, and I've never had too good of a history with it or its' fans. A lot of people I knew mocked me for not caring much for their games (especially since I cared more about "Bad Guy Bethesda"'s games rather than "Good Guy Valve"). I've tried GMOD and Portal, and while the Physics are cool at first, once that amazement wore off the games just didn't really appeal to me, and I wasn't really into the dark humor either. I don't play much in the way of shooters, so when most of their golden age games are Half Life 2 mods (though feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) it just wasn't a good mix. I also hated them memes, but that's minor.

Furthermore, Valve has fallen out of the spotlight over the years after their 2007-2012 golden age. Their creative team is mostly gone and their games have mostly declined in quality or stagnated. They're basically DoTA and Steam at this point, and when Steam became more intrisuve it further turned me off from trying more of their games. I know it sounds a little petty, but I'm just being honest.

Finally, the company as a whole has no representation of any kind on Nintendo systems. It's the same problem I have with characters like Kat from Gravity Rush or 2B, the characters are good in their own right but I believe that they should have some kind of representation on Nintendo systems before getting the invite into Smash. And this applies to Valve's characters, too, as much as the cartoony style of Heavy would fit the game.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5


Predictions:
Prince of Persia - 12.72%
 
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Welcome to Valve, we make games I think
Chance: 0.1%
No matter what Sakurai himself wants, the big N also has to have a say in the matter. And those two companies have never made any real collaborations or interracted that much at all for that matter. Let's also remember third-party representation in Smash is also typically not skewed in favor of western companies and I simply don't think Valve would be an exception.


Want: 0%
I do not have a Steam and hold no personal attachment to any of Valve's properties. With their lack of any true Nintendo presence I also simply don't think they really deserve to be majorly represented.

Prince of Persia: 4.54%
Hollow Knight costume x5
 

Ornl

Smash Journeyman
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Valve rep
Chance: 0%
Several disadvantages: Western + no link to Nintendo + FPS with low identity gameplay (except Portal gun / Gravity gun) + short series + M-rated (except Portal) + competition with all the other non-toon characters (just IMO, except Heavy). Yes, every point can be canceled, but it's the set of disadvantages that is important; it's the accumulation that makes sense for me.
 
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Um, lets take this arguement down.
One, just because a series is short means absolutely nothing. Bayonetta had 2 games before she entered smash. Pikachu and Jigglypuff had 1. Olimar had 2. Point is, doesn't matter the length of the series.
Also, they defined FPS's with Half-Life and G-Mod is literally just a source code Half-Life 2 engine that is used to this day. And m-rated means nothing, since Snake, Bayo, Simon, Joker, they all exist. And Gordon only really competes with Doomguy, and even then they would play very differently, so it doesn't matter.
Point is, just because those arguments exist means nothing, Smash is more about celebrating GAMING history, and Valve is one of the most influential companies in gaming history.
 
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Valve Rep: 0.5%

Being a western 3rd party is a definite strike IMO as it's likely it'll be a long time before another one gets in. And then you have the fallout of that proposed collab between Valve and Nintendo. Plus Vergeben disconfirming Gordon yesterday for FP5.

Want: ABSTAINED. Never played any of Valve's games.

Prince of Persia Prediction: 3.33%

Nominate Sol Badguy x5
 
Joined
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Messages
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Valve Rep
Chance 25%:on one hand Valve Games is a critically acclaimed studio and made revolutionary games of the fps genres, but on the other hand Their games aren't popular in japan and the fact that non of their games appeared on a Nintendo console doesn't help.
Want 70%:I would welcome a Valve rep since they are a acclaimed company for good reason, And characters like Gordon Freeman, Chell, and Heavy would be cool picks for the Smash universe.
Predictions: Prince Of Persia- 8.50%
Nominations:Freddy FazbearX5
 
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Um, lets take this arguement down.
One, just because a series is short means absolutely nothing. Bayonetta had 2 games before she entered smash. Pikachu and Jigglypuff had 1. Olimar had 2. Point is, doesn't matter the length of the series.
Also, they defined FPS's with Half-Life and G-Mod is literally just a source code Half-Life 2 engine that is used to this day. And m-rated means nothing, since Snake, Bayo, Simon, Joker, they all exist. And Gordon only really competes with Doomguy, and even then they would play very differently, so it doesn't matter.
Point is, just because those arguments exist means nothing, Smash is more about celebrating GAMING history, and Valve is one of the most influential companies in gaming history.
Did anyone make those arguments or are you just attacking a strawman?
 

Calamitas

Smash Lord
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Germany
And once again, the pacing of the days catches me off-guard. . . well, whatever. I'll do Arle quickly, anyway, even if it isn't taken into consideration for the overall score.

*Insert a Russianized version of Arle Nadja's name as a reference to Tetris here*

Chance: 20%
I'm just mostly basing this off the score that other people have given this character, as well as their reasonings. Sure, she's apparently very popular in Japan - or at least here series is - but in the West? I'll just go out on a limb and say that in the West, the series is even more obscure than Dragon Quest, which I feel does quite harm her chances. Plus, Sega already has several franchises in this game, so I doubt that they'd go for another one already.

Want: Abstain
I know to little about her to give a proper want score.

Gabe Newell's Mean Steam Machine

Chance: 5%
Valve sure is a company that exists.
I'd leave it at this, but two sentences are minimum, so to continue: Valve is a Western company, not very popular in Japan, primarily developes for the PC, and hasn't really done much in the way of new games at all recently, outside of this VR Half-Life. There are way too many hypothetical firsts here for me to even them consider them slightly likely.

Want: 0%
Nah mate. I've consumed my fair share of TF2 memes over my time on the Internet, seeing as they are near impossible to avoid, but I have zero interest in TF2 or any other of Valve's franchises, be it for Smash or otherwise.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Newcomer x5

Predicting Prince of Persia to be around 4.56%.
 

amageish

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
1,057
I like how this rating is coinciding with one of Valve's famous Steam Sales... Very well-timed.

I have basically nothing new to say, but here we go:
Chance: 5%
Post-Banjo western-third parties are hard to predict, but I'm leaning towards all of them being less likely - not impossible, but less likely. Valve's obviously open to collobrations, as we've seen with Lego Dimensions, Bridge Constructor, and the many full games they made that started as mods/fangames/etc. Question is if Nintendo would choose to contact them over the other companies they have had much closer relationships with.

Want: 50%
It'd depend a lot on the character selected, but I'd be in it for the reaction videos alone. I imagine the internet would loose its collective mind.
 

Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,184
Location
Sackboy enthusiast
Chance 20%
I think us getting a valve rep isn’t impossible, but isn’t likely by any means. I could totally see Heavy Being a Joker-style surprise, although I feel he’s our most likely Valve Rep, Gordon hasn’t been in a game in 15 years and I don’t know how people would feel with Half life in smash over Half life 3.
Want 60%
idk heavy would be pretty cool
Sackboy x 5
Prince of Persia 7%
I feel people will give this too much credit
 
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
1,854
Chance 20%
I think us getting a valve rep isn’t impossible, but isn’t likely by any means. I could totally see Heavy Being a Joker-style surprise, although I feel he’s our most likely Valve Rep, Gordon hasn’t been in a game in 15 years and I don’t know how people would feel with Half life in smash over Half life 3.
Want 60%
idk heavy would be pretty cool
Sackboy x 5
Prince of Persia 7%
I feel people will give this too much credit
You do realize Heavy only appeared in his home game in 2007, the same year Half-Life 2: Episode 2 dropped, right?
Valve stopped supporting TF2 in recent years and have been putting their focus on Half-Life: Alyx. I seriously can't see how Heavy is likelier than Gordon if we're using relevancy as an argument.
 

Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,184
Location
Sackboy enthusiast
You do realize Heavy only appeared in his home game in 2007, the same year Half-Life 2: Episode 2 dropped, right?
Valve stopped supporting TF2 in recent years and have been putting their focus on Half-Life: Alyx. I seriously can't see how Heavy is likelier than Gordon if we're using relevancy as an argument.
Oh when I brought up the time I was referring to how I think fans would rather see him in half life 3 then smash bros, sorry if I confused you, after K Rool I don’t think relevance is all that important
 
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
1,854
Oh when I brought up the time I was referring to how I think fans would rather see him in half life 3 then smash bros, sorry if I confused you, after K Rool I don’t think relevance is all that important
Understandable. Although I don't think fans of Half-Life would be angry over Gordon's inclusion, if anything they'll enjoy it. There already is a new Half-Life gaming coming out and that is literally all what we wanted for over a decade.
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,210
So, it would appear that we've got a pair of disconfirmations.

Jill Valentine (first rating 20.57% Chance, 49.38% Want - latest rating 39.36% Chance, 52.69% Want)

Leon S. Kennedy (first rating 34.64% Chance, 53.70% Want - latest rating 41.23% Chance, 57.50% Want)

Also in a precarious position is Concept: Resident Evil rep (53.64% Chance, 51.62% Want)

Anecdotally, I've noticed that I didn't call Tetromino disconfirmed when the Spirit event for that dropped. I'm removing the 5 noms it has.
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
491
Generally speaking, we don't take leaks as confirmations or disconfirmations, but expect any character disconfirmed by Vergeben to get near-unanimous 0%s in chance.
I'll put it in spoilers, just to be safe.
Recently, Vergeben said that we will not be getting a character from Nippon-Ichi Software. Now, I don't know if he specifically mean Fighter 5 or in general, or if he's specifically talking about the games they own (NIS is also known for localising a bunch of games, such as Danganronpa and a few Touhou fangames).
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,210
I'll put it in spoilers, just to be safe.
Recently, Vergeben said that we will not be getting a character from Nippon-Ichi Software. Now, I don't know if he specifically mean Fighter 5 or in general, or if he's specifically talking about the games they own (NIS is also known for localising a bunch of games, such as Danganronpa and a few Touhou fangames).
Yeah, I knew about that, but I'm pretty sure we've never rated a Nippon Ichi character.

As for the NISA thing, pretty sure that's just a publishing arm so it wouldn't disconfirm Touhou or Danganronpa.
 
Joined
Jul 28, 2013
Messages
8,498
Location
Infinite Glacier
I'll put it in spoilers, just to be safe.
Recently, Vergeben said that we will not be getting a character from Nippon-Ichi Software. Now, I don't know if he specifically mean Fighter 5 or in general, or if he's specifically talking about the games they own (NIS is also known for localising a bunch of games, such as Danganronpa and a few Touhou fangames).
Vergeben called out a dude saying he mentioned crossovers with them (meaning Lloyd and Reimu counted according to him) and Vergeben said he was lying. I think Vergeben just meant whatever the company owns, and they don’t own the series you mentioned.
 
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DaUsername

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 6, 2013
Messages
482
Location
In that corner over there
NNID
DaUsername
Switch FC
SW-1418-0536-1998
Valve character
Chance:
(AKA 0%)
Valve has never released a game on a Nintendo system. Sakurai hasn't shown interest in any Valve games (as far as I know). There's only one Valve character (Heavy) with a decently sized fanbase and said fanbase was nonexistent until recently. Yeah, I don't think it's happening.
Want: 30%
There's a few Valve characters that would be cool to have, like one of the TF2 guys or Gordon Freeman. But none of them are neae the top of my want list.

Prince of prediction: 9%
Noms: Phoenix Wright x5
 
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Joined
Mar 7, 2019
Messages
552
Location
Hulao Gate
Valve Rep

Chance: 5%

I don't have a lot to say about a Valve rep. Half Life: Alyx sure did spark talk about Gordon in Smash, but just because a new game from Valve was announced doesn't mean it'll be a tie in for it to be in Smash. As for a Valve rep itself, I don't see it happening. Nintendo doesn't have any interest in the PC market currently, and Valve has far different business ventures than any company speculated today as they own Steam, the biggest platform for PC gaming.

Want: 35%

Well, I recently have some interest in Valve possibly being in Smash. It's mostly because I have a bias for some of Valve's games as I used to play Gmod a lot, and even though Gmod isn't from Valve, it uses assets from various Valve games as Gmod itself runs on the Source engine. I may not care about Valve's IPs in Smash or any of the characters in it, but I would care about seeing how Sakurai would go about making them fit in Smash and how the Steam community would react as well.

-----------------------------
Predictions:
PoP: 5.77%
-----------------------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5
 
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