Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 354: Game Awards expectations

TCT~Phantom

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Anywho, here are what I would love to see saved before the purge, since I want us to rate as many things as possible that are somewhat interesting or realistic.

Sora Rerate: Yes I know that I am pushing this one myself. If we are getting another SE character, Sora is a big name. It is just his name means Mouse House dealing, which is difficult but not impossible. I feel especially since we rated him last way before E3 he could use a rerate.

Individual RH Reps: Part of why I never put one on the initial schedule for this was to avoid bias. I found that a general concept rating would be better. I would like to see how scores for the likes of Rhythm girl, Chours Kids, and Karate Joe pan out.

Saki - Missing AT that had some post Brawl hype, honestly has a shot unlike some characters

Concept Ratings: I love when we do these, because it feels stimulating. I like hearing people debate about stuff other than characters. However...

Stuff I do not want to rate in the final days

Blog/Box Theory - I am against rating leaks in general. This is not a theory or leak thread. If you have theories and they influence your scores, that is fine. I do not feel comfortable just rating a theory though. Especially ones that could be easily unsettled during our schedule.

Fire Emblem - Ok lowkey I do not want to rate any non big names in Fire Emblem. Yes this is coming from someone who likes Fire Emblem, and is fine with its representation in smash. We already have three Fire Emblem characters and or concepts that we shall be rating within the next month, I would prefer if we do not rate more Fire Emblem. Especially relatively random picks like Merric or more fates characters. FEH and Three Houses are interesting to talk about, and things like villains are always fun to speculate on.

More Rerates - I know that people are fans of stuff and we have done fixed rerates in the past. But towards the end of the speculation period, I feel we should only rerate if something big has changed for the character. Honestly the only ones I really feel confident in saying our ratings would be different enough potentially to be worth it would be Steve and Sora. Other than that, I feel most would either just go down or stagnate.
 
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Ray:

Chance - 2%

Nintendo clearly doesn't seem to have plans to continue with this series. His assist trophy being just straight up cut in Smash 4 doesn't help him either, plus the series is long dead.

Want - 0%

It would be much better to put in a new character from a more relevant series such as Rhythm Heaven. Also he is not requested that much despite having his fans.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 
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Ray:

Chance - 0%

The Custom Robo Trademark was canceled, Nintendo clearly doesn't have plans to continue with this series at all. His assist trophy being just straight up cut in Smash 4 doesn't help him either, plus the series is long dead.

Want - 0%

It would be much better to put in a new character from a more relevant series such as Rhythm Heaven. Also he is not requested that much despite having his fans.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
Read up Kotor’s post from before. Custom Robo isn’t canceled.
 

Sid-cada

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Nintendo did not care to renew the Custom Robo trademark in any way sense or form. Nintendo, who are fiercely protective of their ips. Nintendo, who have been cracking down on emulation. Nintendo would let an IP dry up like that? IMO, it is a good sign that Custom Robo is not on their minds right now.
The Custom Robo Trademark was canceled,
As far as I can tell, the trademark only applies to the fact that a single game uses CDs, and both Custom Robo designs and Custom Robo games on cartridges are both still considered to be under trademark. Nintendo probably does not consider using CD trademarks a priority, because as of now they do not make consoles using CDs in the first place.


As for Ray himself...

Chance - 1.5% - While that gun may be a bit suspicious, it's not enough for me. Personally, I don't think he's old enough to count for a retro, nor is he recent enough to get attention. As a result, a lack of major fan support hurts him into "not really happening" territory.

Want - 80% - Hey, mechas are cool. They've always been a want for me to play them in Smash Bros., and he's one of the closest.


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5
 
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Ray MK II

Chance: 1%
Even if the trademark that wasn't renewed was only for one game, that's one less game to pull content from for Ray's series representation. Isaac also poses a problem to Ray, as he's also from a dead IP and has more popularity.

Want: Abstain
Personally, I don't really want him. I think there are bigger priorities to get in first (Dixie, Captain Toad, Bandana Dee, the list goes on). However, I have never played his games, so I will abstain, as there's always the chance playing them will change my mind.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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Ray want: 40% (50-10*)

Mecha are arctually pretty sacred to me, and I wouldn't want a mecha pilot in Smash, but Ray is actually just a toy robot, so he doesn't bother me in that regard. Ray is so much cooler than ****ing R.O.B. Ray looks cool as ****. R.O.B. looks like a discount Johnny 5. This rating would be higher if R.O.B. weren't in. I hate R.O.B. Custom Robo is cool.

Nominations:

Merric x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters
 
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Rayleigh

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Oh boy, here we go:

Chance: 01% (hue hue) to 10%

I tumbled onto the Smashboards about a month or so ago as a big Ray Supporter, to the point where I was the madman who dug up all of that information and evidence to showcase that, yes, Nintendo still owns Custom Robo. You can find that information as distributed by others and as written up by myself in both the Comments of the cancellation news post (Still waiting on a correction for that) and in the Ray 01 Discussion thread (which I sincerely hope you will all come visit to talk about the franchise and get to know it better!).

All of that said, I never once have considered Ray as 'having a good chance'. The trademark correction doesn't change the fact that the series has been dormant since Custom Robo Arena on the Nintendo DS family of systems. Custom Robo has clearly been known to Sakurai for some time now, as evidenced by its trophy inclusions since Melee and for its assist trophy in Brawl. Its removal from the Assists of Smash 4 was painful, and I can imagine it was a space and relevancy condition for removal...but, then again, some of the other assist trophies people know even less due to being outside of their time and reference, not to mention being about as obscure if not moreso than Custom Robo. However, in Japan, the earlier games also saw re-releases on the Virtual Consoles of the Wii and Wii U, making Custom Robo's N64 titles potential candidates for the Hypothetical Japanese version of the Mini-N64 (following the same vein as the mini-NES and mini-SNES, which both had unique titles in their respective versions.).

In the end, if someone were to consider Ray's inclusion as a big announcement and grand revival of the franchise, even I would call them incorrect. That said, Ray-01 would be a great candidate for either an unexpected wild pick, or for a more modern 'Retro' Representative, as he/it hails from the N64 era and had five games (only two in NA, and only one in Austrailia) in its series that were generally well received across the board, though definitely not major moneymakers. It's for this reason that I give Ray a 0-10% chance score. It is certainly possible for Ray to get in (being a first party icon for a notable-but-dormant series), and moreso than a lot of other...'interesting' choices that some people have, but Ray is in an odd place where they have to compete with a legion of stronger contenders from more known games or series.

Want: 100% Ray-01 has great move potential for an interesting fighter, and comes from a series with engaging gameplay that I still plug in and pick up to this very day. Heck, I finished playing through the story again about three days ago. I have a fair amount of characters I'm interested in, but Ray-01 gets my main support as they are the most unlikely to get it, and I'd like to spread the word around for the future.
 
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UtopianPoyzin

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Noms Purge will be on Nov 7th, 2018. Anything under 100 noms will be purged. After that, idk if we will go too much further with nominations, and we will try to rate as much as we can in that period. I might pull an executive save for one or two cool ideas I feel should be discussed before the thread wraps up, but just expect this purge to be brutal.
Yikes, that's harsh. I personally have a few things I'd love to see saved; if I would've known that we have to reach 100 noms, then I never would have rated [Concept]: Any Minecraft Representation at all. That and Quote are my main two things I really would like to see. I voted for Saki a few times, but I knew that GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 would keep on trucking with that nomination, so I'd focus elsewhere. But yikes, 100? I understand that Ultimate is coming upon us soon, but is that even enough time to get a character from somewhere to 100 before the purge?

RAY

Another character I voted for, and one who I believe needs an explanation. If for some reason I can't finish it by tomorrow, then Quote x5.

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 , how willing are you to allow me to move all of my nominations for [Concept] Any Minecraft Representation to Quote? I was voting for that concept solely to save it from the purge, but I now found out that even if I nonstop nominate it, it still won't make the cut.
 
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Ray

Chance: 1%

Having no new releases in over a decade, Custom Robo is in the awkward position of being dormant, but not nearly old enough to get in as a retro franchise. Ray doesn't have as big of a fanbase as someone like Isaac to help him out, and his assist trophy completely disappearing in 4 didn't help matters. The best he can hope for is getting that much back, I feel.

Want: 50%

Completely indifferent. I have other priorities and it's a franchise that I have no connection to, but it might be worth acknowledging more and he looks pretty cool. If not a fighter I think his assist trophy should return at the very least.

Nominations: Saki x5

I agree that he's worth a rating and he could use some help getting up there, so I'll start nominating him now.
 
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Yikes, that's harsh. I personally have a few things I'd love to see saved; if I would've known that we have to reach 100 noms, then I never would have rated [Concept]: Any Minecraft Representation at all. That and Quote are my main two things I really would like to see. I voted for Saki a few times, but I knew that GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 would keep on trucking with that nomination, so I'd focus elsewhere. But yikes, 100? I understand that Ultimate is coming upon us soon, but is that even enough time to get a character from somewhere to 100 before the purge?

RAY

Another character I voted for, and one who I believe needs an explanation. If for some reason I can't finish it by tomorrow, then Quote x5.

GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 , how willing are you to allow me to move all of my nominations for [Concept] Any Minecraft Representation to Quote? I was voting for that concept solely to save it from the purge, but I now found out that even if I nonstop nominate it, it still won't make the cut.
Sorry, not at all willing. I’m sure you understand, if I start allowing people to switch their past noms about, things’ll get very messy very fast.
 
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Ray
Chance 0%
Want 10%
He's a first party Nintendo character from unrepresented franchise, which is alright in my book. But I don't think he has a hope help. Custom Robo has been completely forgotten by Nintendo, I don't think it had any representation in Smash Wii U or 3DS, going as far to cut his Assist Trophy.

Nominate Daroach x5


EDIT: We have 55 days to release and we're going to know the full roster before that, which means quite a number of things on the nomination list aren't going to get rated, at the moment if left untouched, we'd get about to those in the 60+ nominations, and that's if we can keep up one a day. Of course with the final characters fast approaching, we may have to start talking Dlc more, because I've only considered base game chances.

Either way we're in our final days. A lot of what's on the list might not get rated. And after a purge, I honestly don't see the point of nominating anything new.
 
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spinalwolf

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Ray

Chance- 10%

Custom robo has never really been a relevant franchise for Nintendo. The series also lacks popularity in the west and we haven't seen a new game in quite some time. Not to mention there isn't enough overall support for the character itself. Sakurai is unpredictable though so ya never know. Ice climbers for example was also from a dead franchise. yet they got in smash. So you can never necessarily count out a character just because they come from a dead irrelevant franchise.

Want- 70%

He would make for a very interesting character and I can already say he'd have a fun moveset. He's not really super high on my list of most wanted but it would be nice.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

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2.Noms Purge will be on Nov 7th, 2018. Anything under 100 noms will be purged. After that, idk if we will go too much further with nominations, and we will try to rate as much as we can in that period. I might pull an executive save for one or two cool ideas I feel should be discussed before the thread wraps up, but just expect this purge to be brutal.
What's the purpose of purging nominations?
 
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Abstaining. Custom Robo's an old wishful from Brawl, but he's lacked both the official and unofficial support to have much of a chance. On the other hand, Sakurai might have a soft spot for these old "fighting robots in an arena" games, especially since no one sees them around anymore. There's just not much solid evidence either way, dead as the franchise may seem.

Nominations
Sans (boss) x5
 

Sari

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Thwomp

BigRock.gif


No... just... no.

I would've ended this post right here, but since I need more than two sentences:

Chance: 0%
Can you imagine the outrage that would happen if Thwomp got in before characters like Geno or Isaac? I think SmashBoards and the internet in general would go into full-on riot mode. Even when ignoring how silly the idea is, Thwomp is incorporated into Kirby’s down-B so that essentially deconfirms it already.

Want: 0%
The day Thwomp gets added to Smash is the day they’ve run out of ideas. Literally any character would be better than this.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5
 
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Dee Dude

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Thwomp? Must be a boring day...

Chance: 0%
-Generic enemy

-No feasible moveset with lack of arms and legs
-Would be dumb to add in over tons of actual Mario characters
-Better as a stage harzard/enemy
-Probably deconfirmed as Kirby’s Down B anyway

Want: 0% Nope nope nopity noper nope

Slippy Toad x3
Peppy Hare x3
 
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Opossum

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Thwomp time.

Sadly, I'm gonna have to give double zeroes to our big gray friend. Being in Kirby's down special and not being Ken or Incineroar really bring down his chances, IMO. You can say that this box doesn't fit with Box Theory. :p I mean there's also the lack of limbs but that's secondary.

As for want, there are other Mario characters I'd prefer. Waluigi, Captain Toad, E. Gadd, and even other random generics like a Shy Guy, Wiggler, or Whittle.

Merric x5
 
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Thwomp:

Chance - 0%

Erm, what. Who requested this lol? Yea, it is in Kirby's down-B, I doubt it was highly requested and it has no limbs or feasible movement.

Want - 0.1%

There is much better options for Mario characters such as Toad, Waluigi, Paper Mario, even Geno or Fawful. Also if an enemy is to be added it should be a more notable and well known one. However I do own a Thwomp pillow and it is really comfy so a 0.1% is in order.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 
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RANDOM MARIO ENEMY
Chance 0%
Want 0%



This is literally a random Mario enemy. Thwomp only has one attack, it can't move (this is a huge problem) and there's going to be a special adventure-like mode for this character to SHINE in. It is just a giant rock with a face (or two) on it that smashes itself into the ground on a daily basis. Other Mario characters, such as Geno, Paper Mario, and dare I say it: Waluigi, are much more deserving than Thwomp. Sorry buddy :/

Edit: I just thought of a bigger, better, more bad*$$ version of a Thwomp from another dimension that would make a good adventure mode boss. His name: STAKATAKA!

Nominations Xurkitree x5 (Saving him from the purge)

Predictions: Fjorm 5%
 
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Kotor

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Why wasn't this made into a double day?

Thwomp

Chance: 0%
Want: 1%

Thwomp just seems better suited as an Assist Trophy. Or if an Adventure Mode is added to Ultimate, it doesn't sound out there to have Thwomp present there. There's nothing about it that can be made into a full-fledged playable character. All it has is the prospect of a generic enemy from Super Mario getting added in over Waluigi. That amuses me, but there's just better options out there to choose.

Black Knight as a boss character x5
 

PeridotGX

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Gonna play along and do it as an actually plausible assist trophy. Actually double abstain.

Thwomp AT

Chance - 35%. Could Happen. Between Hammer Bro and Chain Chomp, there's precedent of random Mario enemies getting ATs. And with the assets being there from Kirby and simple effects, it couldn't be too hard to make. Not any higher because ATs are unpredictable.

Want - 30%. Thwomps are pretty neat enemies in the Mario series. It'd be great to see them on the battlefield.

Nominations - Cross Series Echoes x5

Also can we have more double days? Stuff like this really doesn't need it's own round.
 
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I guess we should have probably considered making this a double day. Don’t know why we didn’t. Might have been to hyped to rate Nathan Drake when I was locking the last schedule down. Anyways...

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

October 14: Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes)
October 15: Concept: No More Stages
October 16: Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode
October 17: Linkle (Hyrule Warriors)
October 18: Louie (Pikmin)
October 19: Rick, Coo & Kine (Kirby)

October 20: DeMille (Tomato Adventure) and Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project) (Double Day)

Not much to say this time, the top three had a big lead over the rest but there were no upsets there today. Reimu Hakurei snuck into the top seven at the last minute, tying with DeMille. You might have noticed a special someone giving DeMille two nominations to ensure this would happen...

The new top seven consists of Balloon Fighter, Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excluding Inkling and Ridley), Dovahkiin, Papyrus, Tsubasa Oribe, Concept: All-Star Versus, and a three way tie between Snip & Clip, Fire Emblem Three Houses protagonist and Kyo Kusanagi.

Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Dovahkiin x185
Papyrus x180
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Kyo Kusanagi x155

200 - 151

Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Susie Haltmann x139
Edelgard x135
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Black Knight as a boss character x125
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Zeraora (Pokemon) x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x111
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Daroach x105
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Sans as a boss character x97
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x88
Silvally x84
The Prince (Katamari) x80
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Concept: Cross series Echoes x75
Rhythm Girl x75
Veronica x73
Merric (Fire Emblem) x70
9-Volt x68
Slime x66
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51
[Rerate] Steve? x51

50 - 25

Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x50
Saki Amamiya x50
Earthworm Jim x49
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Melemele Island x40
Concept: DLC character pass x40
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Joker (Persona) x34
Quote x33
[Rerate] Sora x30
Box Theory x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Concept: Any Minecraft representation x24
Blog Theory x24
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Kat & Ana x20
[Rerate] Gengar x19
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
[Rerate] Porky Minch x9
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x9
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

As for Kyo Kusanagi, he busts through 150 nominations and lands in that seventh spot tie. We’ll be seeing him rule the top seven before long, just like Terry before him.

As for today’s newcomers, we got Creeper with 3 nominations and Creeper as an AT, with 2.

Rayleigh Rayleigh the nominations for Saki are appreciated, but unless you give more reasoning I won’t be able to count those nominations.
 
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Thank you for the alert earlier TCT.

Our Lord and Saviour

Chance- 0.01%
Its amazing we actually got this far. Memes aside, he wont happen ever unless more than 1 person out there goes and campaigns for Thwomp in Smash Bros. He is a relativley well knwon character, but so is every other Mario NPC that appears in 95% of Mario games. Sakurai would have to get very creative about how to implement him given the lack of hands and feet. Realistically, Tetris block and Magnemite would be implemented as a playable character first.

OK, now with that alout of the way, its the moment some of you have anticipated and/or feared since like March or April. It is meme time.

Its...

Thwomp Time

Want- 100%
Now, what kind of illegal substance must one be under to think THWOMP in Smash is a good idea. Well, whatever was in my system back in March of 2016 is the correct answer. On one fareful night, I had a dream. I was palying Melee, on the Brinstar Depths as Bowser. Perfectly normal. Then, all of a sudden, a new challenger appears out of nowhere. Yep! It's him. Thwomp falls from the sky and became a secret Melee character. This dream was so obscure and bizarre, I fell in love with Thwomp immideantly when I woke up. He has been a huge in joke with my friends ever since. Weve all made our fan movesets, I uploaded one on this site too I ythink, and if he got in it wouldnt mean jack **** for millions but it will make the world for about 10 people.

Until he gets in, I will carry the weight of the world on my shoulders alone. (Thwomp is my world)
DEXATI20181013153541.png


Oh, and eat your heart out, Blue Bowser.

Oh, and URGH
 

SupriceSupplies

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Today's RTC: Thw-thw-pffFFFFFFWHAT
uh, Thwomp I guess?

Chance: 0%
I don't often give actual, full-on 0's when I think about a character, but this is one of those times. Reasons have already been stated like Kirby's down-special and lack of moveset potential, which many, MANY other Mario characters do have such as Captain Toad, Waluigi, Geno, King Boo, Paper Mario, Fawful, the list goes on.

...Why did I actually bother making arguments for this?

Want: 1%
I mean, I don't actually *want* Thwomp even the tiniest bit, but god damn would it make for a hilarious April Fool's prank on the smash website.
 
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Obligatory joke character rating
Chance: 0%
A literal generic enemy like Thwomp isn't gonna make it. Even if Sakurai goes bonkers and actually adds one of those, it also won't be Thwomp. There are atleast ten Mario mooks that are more iconic and have more moveset potential.

Want: 1%
I have no reason to want this brick. I'll give him that one percent however, because he atleast is not Geno. :p

The Prince x5
 
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