Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 354: Game Awards expectations

PSIGuy

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Pyra & Mythra Without Rex
Chance: 0%. Pyra and Mythra on their own would be like Captain Falcon as a fighter who is slow, not flashy, not a racecar driver OR a bounty hunter who also fires lasers out of his eyeballs. It basically has no relation to XB2 besides the character name and appearance, when even characters like Fox/Falcon embody a lot of their series well.
Want: 0%. I don't like Rex nor XB2 all that much. But if XB2 were to get included, I'd prefer it get included in an interesting way. A tagteam character bears more similarities to what XB2 is about and what the characters are like. On their own they're basically a spellsword with terrible outfit design, and I guess a stance switch mechanic.

Excite Biker
Chance: 5%. Assuming he terraformed the environment as he fought (making ramps for jumps or launching opponents) and used his wheels/bike in interesting ways (like hitting people with the bike in mid-air or doing wheelies off them) then he could definitely be a unique, crazy character. But a lot of retros inch in on his slot.
Want: 15%. You know what? After that little blurb I'd be interested in seeing him fight. I can't say I'd want him before Takamaru but Excitebiker would be fun on in his own right.
 
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I never said he never used items. But that isn't enough to make him stand out in my books
Takamaru doesn’t just use items though, that’s his main deal. The sword is just reserved for melee, which, in his game, really doesn’t happen often, as it’s wisest to strike enemies from a distance. Takamaru would use his sword as much as Ness uses his bat. Sure, that’s a weapon he uses, but his main shtick is PSI, and he wields a yo-yo for variety, et cetera.
 

Pacack

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I never said he never used items. But that isn't enough to make him stand out in my books
That's fair enough, since that's an opinion. However, GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 summarized the point I was getting at well.
Takamaru doesn’t just use items though, that’s his main deal. The sword is just reserved for melee, which, in his game, really doesn’t happen often, as it’s wisest to strike enemies from a distance. Takamaru would use his sword as much as Ness uses his bat. Sure, that’s a weapon he uses, but his main shtick is PSI, and he wields a yo-yo for variety, et cetera.
The sword is his secondary weapon, while his kunai and whatnot are his primary. That's what I wanted to emphasize.
 
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fogbadge

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pyra and mythra

chances: 5% i just dont see them not being part of rex's moveset

want: 0% the idea of them on their own doesnt appeal, it makes more sense for them to be with rex

excitebiker

chances: 40% apparently sakurai did consider him at one point not sure if hed change his mind or not but i dont think being on a motorbike all the time would really be to much of a restriction for the smash team to work around

want: 70% i do love retro characters
 
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Pyra & Mythra:

Chance 1%: Almost impossible.

Want 15%: I'd rather have Elma (even though I haven't played Xenoblade yet.) Xenoblade 2 doesn't interest me as much as Xenoblade 1 or X.

Excite Biker:

Chance 10%: Not very likely. He was well known but doesn't have great potential.

Want 10%: Odd choice. There are better retro characters out there.

Nomination:
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 5x
 
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Solo Pythra

Chance: 35%
Want: 40%

Both of them can work on their own, as shown in some cutscenes from their game, but they would then have a rather classic and unappealing moveset without their Driver, Rex, as the Driver-Blade mechanic is THE key feature of Xenoblade 2, and that would be such a waste to go that way.

Excitebiker

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

I get that Excitebike is a classic, but seriously?


Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Skyrim representation prediction: 6.31%
FD Ver. 2 prediction: 96.42%
 

zipzapsparkle

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PyraChance 5%
Want Abstain

It would be a little awkward that Rex gets shafted, but not uncalled for. Not sure how I’d feel because I’m not that big on Xenoblade.

Excitebiker
Chance 50%
Want 5%

He’s one of the retros I somewhat expect but I don’t really care much for, I’m indifferent more or less, but I prefer the retros to be more unexpected. They seem more special, it’s just harder to achieve nowadays.

Arcade Bunny x5
 

Aetheri

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Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 1%
Honestly seems rather unlikely. Rex is the main protagonist, and while Pyra is easily the deuteragonist of the game she more than likely would fit better in a more support based role along side Rex, which would make both of them more unique than if they were separate. Plus I could go on about how we may not see any significant XC2 content before DLC.

Want: 0%
As I mentioned above, it would be underwhelming if they weren't together with could make for a more unique fighter in the game. Rex and/or Pyra and/or Mythra on their own wouldn't really make for anything interesting I feel.

----

Excitebiker
Chance: 30%
I actually feel people could sleep on his chances. He was considered in the past and I feel even being a retro character Excitebike as a series is one with enough notoriety to make him a pretty hype reveal. Similar to Duck Hunt.

The problem Sakurai had in the past was making him jump believably, but honestly it isn't hard just to make him bunny hop, and then possibly use a booster/ramp as his Up+B that could arc him similarly to Rosalina.

Want: 80%
TBH, over the past few months, I've warmed up to the idea of Excitebiker being in Smash because it would totally make for something unprecedented. One cool thing about Smash is making fighters out of things that normally wouldn't be used for fighting and a motocross dirtbike being used as a weapon would be something you don't normally see much in fighting games. And I'm talking about more than just running into them and throwing the bike (or eating) like what Wario does. I mean straight up using carious stunts and flips and stuff for fighting.
 

FamicomDisk

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Pyra and Mythra

Chance: 5%
I can't see them happening without Rex. In the game, Drivers and Blades are linked closely together, and combat is usually done when they're close together. Pyra and Mythra being on their own without Rex wouldn't really be following the origin game at all, where Rex is the fighter, and Pyra/Mythra give him power to fight. That said, it's not impossible - during the game, you're shown that Drivers and Blades can be apart, they're just weaker that way. So Pyra could be away from Rex, and maybe he could show up in the victory animations like Doc Louis does in Little Mac's. And they are generally more popular than Rex, so... maybe Sakurai could see that and add them instead? I still very much doubt that will happen, though.

Want: 40%
So this is an interesting one. On the one hand, I loved Xenoblade 2, and I was one of the people who actually did enjoy the characters, Rex included. They're not the best characters ever, but I certainly didn't dislike them. So of course I'd like to see characters from it! On the other hand, I feel like having Pyra/Mythra alone is getting rid of the potential they could have as a duel character with Rex. There are a lot of cool ideas for how they could work in Smash, and each one is a lot different from characters we've seen before. Pyra and Mythra on their own would just be a fire or light swordfighter, and there's so much lost potential there compared to following Xenoblade 2's Driver and Blade link. That said, I put my want score at 40% because I'd definitely welcome them if they got in alone - but Rex and them together is a character I really want for the next game, and that score would be much higher.

-----

Excitebiker

Chance: 5%
Excitebiker was one of the characters considered during Melee as an NES/Famicom representative. Ice Climbers eventually took the title, putting the Excitebiker in a similar position to Urban Champion, Balloon Fighter, and Bubbles. There's been no indication that he's been considered since, so I feel like it's probably unlikely.

Want: 0%
Meh. Excitebike is fun, but its characters are just generic bikers that do jumps. Wario already has some moves that use a bike, and I don't think we need a character that uses a motorbike so extensively.

-----

Final Destination version 2 chance prediction: 15.38%
Skyrim chance prediction: 8.93%


Nomination:
DeMille x5
 

Munomario777

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I dunno whether this checks out lore-wise, but in terms of implementing Pyra and Mythra without Rex, I'd be inclined to just have one of them serve as the Driver, and the other as the Blade. So one of them performs the main attacks, while the other hangs back in a support role. Maybe you could swap their roles mid-battle, to alter select moves?
 

ChikoLad

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I dunno whether this checks out lore-wise, but in terms of implementing Pyra and Mythra without Rex, I'd be inclined to just have one of them serve as the Driver, and the other as the Blade. So one of them performs the main attacks, while the other hangs back in a support role. Maybe you could swap their roles mid-battle, to alter select moves?
Pretty sure that won't work, because they literally inhabit the same body. Rex simply orders them to change forms mid-battle. Or Mythra will force herself out if you're doing poorly with Pyra.

They get split apart in the ending, but that's obviously a huge spoiler. We also don't know if they actually retain all of their combat abilities at this point.
 
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Ok two for one special day
First
pyra and mythra (without rex)
chance
Keeping this one short and simple. Not happing they work as a team with Rex the roster was done long before there game came out so backlash of Rex would not effect this game.The only chance this has is if they were added in late and Sakurai hated Rex in XC2 but even then thats a extreme longshot
2%
want
Honestly feel that I would not want them by themselves. Kinda takes away the point of the charcter in general. Would feel like another Charizard situation and I still feel that was off.
10%

Excitbike
chance
retro reps are way to weird to pick. We have some choices like Excitebike,takumari,etc but for all we know it could be someone not even considered for Smash before. However I feel out of the retro reps he has a decnt chacne as he could have a unique and fun moveset
33%

want
again fun moveset. My most wanted retro rep after duck hunt (which got into smash 4). Would love to see how they carry over such s simple design adn make it intresting in Smash
60%

nominating labo guy x5

Predicting
Skyrim at 5%
and Final Destination 2 at 25%
 

Opossum

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Pythra gets double zeroes. Goes completely against how they fight in the game itself. Also not a fan of their offputting designs. Combine that with going against canon, and I'll take a hard pass.

Excitebiker

Chance: 10
Obligatory retro score. He's possible.
Want: 25%
He'd be neat. There are other ones I'd prefer.


Predicting a 9% for Skyrim
7% for FDV2

Nominating K. Rool x5
 

Slavic

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I dunno whether this checks out lore-wise, but in terms of implementing Pyra and Mythra without Rex, I'd be inclined to just have one of them serve as the Driver, and the other as the Blade. So one of them performs the main attacks, while the other hangs back in a support role. Maybe you could swap their roles mid-battle, to alter select moves?
Yeah, without getting into too much detail Pyra’s a different form that Mythra created when she was sealed away. It should be mentioned thatBlades, especially the Aegis, are able to fight on their own and that cutscenes seem to indicate Mythra waged a war without using her driver. However, I’ve yet to complete the game so I’m definitely missing some deets. Basically, they could feasibly stand-alone, but they couldn’t supplement a driver-blade relationship.
 

MrElectroG64

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Pyra & Mythra

Chances: 10%
I'm not exactly an expert on the topic, but I wouldn't really be confident in saying they'd come without Rex. It would be like adding the Monado without Shulk. I guess they could wield each other, but do they ever actually do that in the game? Either way, it seems like they would be better suited as a part of Rex than on their own.

Want: 10%
eh, they could be interesting, but I don't really care about Xenoblade honestly. Even if they were indeed a part of Rex I wouldn't really care. We'll just have to see for ourselves what they look like I guess.


Excite Biker

Chances: 20%
His chances aren't inherently bad, but he does have Takamaru to get around. He, however, could very well be chosen over Takamaru purely for the surprise factor.

Want: 70%
He would be extremely interesting and I think he has a lot of moveset potential. I'd really like to see him do tricks and full on attack with his bike.


Nominations: Louie x5
 
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ChikoLad

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The logic behind Blades and Drivers is:

-Blades can fight on their own, but doing so is a massive strain, as they have to handle both physical combat and using the Ether flow to power themselves up. The purpose of a Driver-Blade relationship is to split that load - Driver handles the physical fighting, while the Blade powers up the Driver, and occasionally helps out in joint attacks (in gameplay, these are your Specials).

-An Aegis like Pyra/Mythra can handle themselves a little better than a typical Blade, but they still greatly benefit from having a Driver who can properly wield them.

-The only exception is Flesh Eaters, who are themselves half-human, half-Blade. They can essentially be their own Drivers just fine, and can also wield their own Blades. However, one spoilerific example seems to imply that a Flesh Eater can still benefit from having a separate Driver.

As for my own thoughts, I don't think a solo Pyra/Mythra is happening, nor would I want it. Also, I'll dare say that I don't want Rex with just Pyra/Mythra either. If we're gonna have Rex, he needs at least one other Blade to truly represent the mechanics of XC2. The entire point of the combat is that you're constantly switching Blades to perform Driver Combos and Blade Combos. If Rex just has Pyra/Mythra (who are clones in XC2), then you actually can't represent the mechanics that well and you just get another sword wielder. Best you can do is incorporate the Affinity mechanic and the Specials mechanic.
 

AlphaSSB

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Pyra/Mythra without Rex

Chance: 1% - Really should be a zero, but I suppose anything is possible. Really goes against their whole premise in the game, based off my knowledge.

Want: 0% - I feel like making Pyra and/or Mythra separate characters from Rex would be like separating Nana and Popo.


Excitebiker

Chance: 5% - Was considered for Smash before, but if I'm recalling correctly, he had trouble envisioning how he'd work. Granted, there's nothing stopping him from going back and trying to make him work, but I don't see it happening.

Want: 10% - Would be neat to see, sure, but I can live without him.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5
 

BluePikmin11

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As someone who has spent 100+ hours on Xenoblade 2 and has not beaten the game yet, Pyra and Mythra being together just does not make any sense. It would not make canonical sense for them to fight on their own without Rex as the main Driver, even if those two Blades are the most appealing characters in Xenoblade 2. Without the element of Driver/Blade, the characters would not stand out now with them alone lacking an identifiable play-style. This is not flat out not happening.

x5 Balloon Fighter
 
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TheFritzle

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Pyra/Mythra without Rex:
Chance: 2%

If Xenoblade 2 were to get a character, it would definitely be with Rex. Sakurai has shown that he likes to make characters feel right, and adding Pyra/Mythra without Rex wouldn't feel like Xenoblade 2. It doesn't make sense in the game, so why would they translate that into Smash. The main core mechanic in the game is the driver/blade system, so why would Sakurai go against it and add Pyra/Mythra, missing a chance at a unique gameplay idea.

Want: 10%
I really don't like Rex much, but if we're going to get a character I'd rather it feel correct. The driver/blade mechanic would be an interesting idea in Smash, so it would be a shame if they missed the opportunity in favor of a less unique idea.

Excitebiker:
Chance: 15%

He's already been considering before, so there is some merit to considering him possible. Sakurai has changed is mind on characters before, but I think the time gap might be a problem. Sakurai considering Pacman, Miis, and Villager for Brawl, but dismissed them, only the add them a game later. Excitebiker was considered for Melee, but brushed off and didn't make it into Brawl or 4. I think this is because Sakurai still can't think of a working moveset for them, and unless he has finally made a breakthrough, I don't think it's that likely. Excitebike still makes appearances, so the only issue I can see with his inclusion is moveset.

Want: 10%
The bike is a unique idea, but I'm not sold he could bring much other than the fact he's on a bike. There are other retro reps I'd rather see, and other bike characters like Mach Rider that I'd rather see get in than Excitebiker.

Skyrim Representation Prediction: 13.19%
Final Destination v2 Prediction: 34.10%


Nominations:
Ray x5
 
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Pyra and Mythra without Rex.
Chance: 1% - Feels completely unnecessarily. The only way that I can see this happening is if Monolith decides that Rex isn’t popular enough and instead wants to push Pyra as the face of Xenoblade 2.
Want: 20%

Excite Biker
Chance: 8% - Sakurai’s already shot down his chances in Melee and didn’t change his mind for the next two SSB games after that. It’s hard to believe he’s suddenly include him now.
Want: 60%

Nominations: Eevee x5
 
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Excitebiker chances: 33%
A potential choice to fill the expected "retro" niche, he got referenced in the recent Nintendo era in Mario Kart, and similar to Little Mac also got a game on the Wii, and he has the advantage of not being too obscure. I believe Sakurai had concerns over how he could jump, however; I wonder if this might still apply, as it doesn't seem to be something as hard as Ridley's size to work on.

Excitebiker want: 48%
Not an awful choice at all, but not one I'm particularly invested in. I'm not sure how his moveset could look like, but part of me feels that it's part of how I could be satisfied by seeing something I didn't expect... He could probably have moves inspired from motocross?

Pyra & Mythra chances: 1%
As someone who isn't familiar with XC2 I feel like my rating should be taken with a grain of salt, so I'll just post a reasoning from my own limited knowledge. Apparently both are blades but not drivers which would be a misrepresentation of XC2's gameplay, and I believe Mythra is not as much of a main character as Rex.

Pyra & Mythra want: 0%
I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on the prospect of getting a playabl XC2 rep at all, but for this option I think I'll pass. I feel like putting Mythra over Rex would only be justified if it somehow makes for a more unique character but I'm not familiar enough with XC2 to appreciate that, also I don't really like Mythra's look (XC2 designs seem a bit weird overall, but the way how revealing Mythra's outfit is is a bit too over the top for me).

Skyrim representation: guess it can range from playable Dovahkiin to a Rayman-like cameo. Predicting 22.02%
Prediction for the SSB4 FD remix: 50.69%

Also I just realized we're going to rate joke characters alongside serious nominations from the schedule. Hopefully that means we'll be able to predict a flat zero for them and get plenty of extra nominations by gessing the exact correct score, so maybe I'll be able to save the Battlefield form stages concept from the purge without someone else's help. I just hope we're not going to have someone who breaks that by giving a chance score high enough so that Brash the Bear and Yarne/Owain tag team are somehow considered remotely possible in the final score.

Nominating:
Concept: Battlefield form stages x5
 
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BluePikmin11 BluePikmin11 Exitebiker's resume:
  • His first game was a launch title for the 3DS Virtual Console
  • Has more than one game
  • Known across the world by even the most casual of fans
  • Mario Kart 8 stage
  • Assist Trophy in Brawl
  • Mario Maker costume
honestly, knowing Sakurai, I wouldn't be surprised if Takamaru actually DIDN'T make it in again purely because everyone is expecting it. Excitebiker may indeed get in after all.
The only people expecting Takamaru are Japanese or super hardcore Smash nerds, and even lot of those people don't think he'll get in. The casuals who vastly outnumber us only know him as "That samurai assist trophy. No, the other samurai assist trophy. No, the other other samurai assist trophy. No, the other other other samurai assist trophy." Some people here really need to get out of their fandom bubble.
 
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The only people expecting Takamaru are Japanese or super hardcore Smash nerds, and even lot of those people don't think he'll get in. The casuals who vastly outnumber us only know him as "That samurai assist trophy. No, the other samurai assist trophy. No, the other other samurai assist trophy. No, the other other other samurai assist trophy." Some people here really need to get out of their fandom bubble.
Actually most people expect him because he was going to be in Smash 4 and then changed to AT because his game was never released on the West. His game is out now and I'm sure Sakurai hasn't changed his mind on thinking he should be in so he looks pretty likely.
 
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Actually most people expect him because he was going to be in Smash 4 and then changed to AT because his game was never released on the West. His game is out now and I'm sure Sakurai hasn't changed his mind on thinking he should be in so he looks pretty likely.
Like I said, the only people who'd even know that are the super hardcore smash nerds. No one except you guys and some people in Japan expect him, or even know who he is.
 

Sid-cada

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Pyra and/or Myra

Chance - 0% - The whole point of Blades is that they are attached to their wielder. While doing Rex and Pyra together may be harder than doing it alone, doing it together is both the point of the story and the main interesting thing Sakurai would take away from game play. Not putting them together would ruin the entire point. I can't see this happening. Besides, if any character gets in solo, it's Rex.

Want - 20% - While I don't care about Xenoblade, puting Rex and Pyra together at least is interesting. This feels like they are squandering their potential.


Exitebiker

Chance - 7.5% - One of the notable retros who Sakurai admits he was looking at before. While he may have good chances, there is currently a clear frontrunner, and it'd hard to imagine the sort of competition Takamaru may face. Still, he could surprise us, and I feel Exitebiker has some ammount of upswing to him.

Want - 65% - I'd be interesting seeing how a pure biker could work. I don't have any particular gripes against him, though there may be more interesting retros out there.


Prediction

Skyrim Representation - 7.45% - I have no idea how to predict this...

Final Destination V2 - 5.35% - Songs are hard to predicitct...


Nominaitons

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5
 

RandomAce

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Double Day!!!

Pyra and Mythra:

Chance: 0%
The whole concept behind Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is "Boy meets Girl" is what made the duo Rex and Pyra exist in the first place. So I don't see Sakurai adding in Rex or Pyra without one or the other.

Want: ABSTAIN
I don't really know how to respond to this, but I never really liked Rex so I would be fine without him, but if Pyra and Mythra does somehow come with a unique mechanic then I'll be fine with it. But, I'm really pushing for Elma right now.

ExciteBiker:

Chance: 45%
Excitebiker is one of the most recognizable retro characters we have left, and his concept of having bike can intrigue Sakurai to make a moveset around it. However, Excitebike always had the problem of how the **** is he going to move with his bike.

Want: 50%
I don't really care if he's in. If he's in, COOL! If he's not, ok.

Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana (I'm all over the place)
 
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Indefinite Minimum

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Pyra and Mythra

Chance: 0%
No Rex no life.

Want: 70%
Pyra a cute, Rex go home.


Excite Biker

Chance: 20%
Wario is already in the game but Excite Biker could be a clone.

Want: 0%
gib takamaru


Nominations:
x5 Dragonite
 

TCT~Phantom

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Don't forget that Sakurai couldn't make Excitebiker work in Melee for unspecified reasons. I don't see him coming back to the idea of a vehicle-bound character if he couldn't make it work before.
And Pac Man was just a pizza, Miis are too peaceful, and Villagers have no moveset potential as a fighter.

The guy changes his mind, he has in almost every smash game so far.
 

Erureido

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Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 1%

The 1% comes from the fact we see Pyra fighting with her own sword early into Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but beyond that, I am very doubtful they will add Pyra/Mythra as a standalone fighter. Xenoblade Chronicles 2's battle system is made possible by the combination of the driver and the blade, and removing one or the other ruins the whole dynamic.

Want: 10%

There's just a small part of me that thinks the reveal of something like this would be a fun surprise; yet, most of me thinks Pyra/Mythra would be a far more interesting fighter if they included Rex into the mix to highlight the whole driver and blade relationship in a Smash Bros setting.

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Excitebiker

Chance: 10%

He definitely has the retro appeal going for him, especially when he is one Nintendo's most iconic retro stars. Sakurai did consider him for Melee but turned him down. Perhaps he will change his mind, but as it stands, it doesn't seem like a possibility, especially when there are other candidates Excitebiker has to go up against to fill that retro slot.

Want: 20%

The idea of biker in Smash sounds interesting, but Excitebiker isn't my preferred choice for that. That title goes to Mach Rider.

------

Predictions

Skyrim Representation: 12.21%

No comment.

Final Destination V2: 44.17%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5
 
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Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 0%
The entire point of the Blade mechanic is that Drivers and Blades fight together, not separately. Rex and Pyra/Mythra's bond is the focus of the plot too. It just doesn't make any sense not to have Rex there, and without him the character loses a ton of moveset potential in the process. If Sakurai can't figure out how to get the Blade mechanic to work it simply wouldn't be worth the effort to include a half-assed version of Rex & Pyra/Mythra.

Want: 30%
I have mixed feelings. Before I played XC2 I woud've been more on board with this, but that was before Rex grew on me. Couple that with my experience with the game's combat system and I'm not sure if I'd even be satisfied with getting Pyra/Mythra without Rex. Still, they get points because I love them and all you guys XC2 as a whole.

Excitebiker

Chance: 30%
He was considered back in Melee, so props to him for already being on Sakurai's radar. Unfortunately he was rejected, but if Sakurai can figure out how to get him to work we could definitely see Excitebiker as the retro character, especially since it's been over a decade and a half since those comments from Melee. We saw much more inspired movesets with Smash 4's newcomers, and a bike based moveset would be a unique and worthwhile use of Sakurai's rejuvenated creative process. Being one of 3 frontrunners alongside Takamaru and Balloon Fighter for a retro rep automatically warrants him a high score since we know that we're getting a new retro character like in every other game. He's also more recognizable to a general audience than Takamaru due to his own game being far more iconic than the only recently localized Mysterious Murasame Castle and the Excitebike stage in Mario Kart 8.

Want: 80%
Gonna be real here I find Takamaru to be slightly boring in comparison to a biker character. That's not to say Taka doesn't have potential (Lyn is in my sig so it should be obvious I get that sword users can still be unique), but the idea of a trick based character like Funky Kong or Excitebiker is just very intriguing to me.

Nominating Kamek x5
 
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Pacack

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And Pac Man was just a pizza, Miis are too peaceful, and Villagers have no moveset potential as a fighter.

The guy changes his mind, he has in almost every smash game so far.
And for every exception we have there are also characters who Sakurai has rejected and not come back to.

Urban Champion doesn't have many moves, Balloon Fighter can't do much of anything without his balloons, he couldn't picture how Bubbles would fight, Ayumi Tachibana is too obscure, James Bond would be too much of a legal hassle and had real weapons, Chrom doesn't do anything particularly new, and Heihachi would be difficult to implement and isn't as much of an icon as Pac-Man.

Yes, he can change his mind, but that doesn't mean he's going to. Excitebiker had problens he didn't elaborate on, likely related to mobility.

Unlike Takamaru, whose popularity was potentially higher than Sakurai originally estimated (see: Mii costume), Excitebiker's issues are presumably still issues.

Bowser Jr. is vehicle bound.
A fair point, but a bit different from what I'm trying to communicate. Unlike Bowser Jr. And Wario, Excitebiker would have to be consistently using a high-speed motor vehicle (similar to the two's side specials.) Where does that leave him for grabs and jumping and recovery?

He's not impossible, certainly, but he's notably lacking in some pretty fundamental abilities.

Now, if we were discussing Mach Rider, I'd argue differently because the character has the capacity to fight without being consistently bound to his (her?) vehicle.
 
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Pyra/Mythra solo

Chance: 0.5%

I think this has already been explained well enough by everyone else. If Xenoblade 2 does get a character, Rex is certainly going to be involved.

Want: 0%

He also should be. I don't particularly have strong feelings either way on whether or not the game gets anything, but Rex & Pyra together is definitely the best way to go.

Excitebiker

Chance: 10%

Like Urban Champion, Excitebiker was once considered, but turned down due to possible feasibility issues. Unlike Urban Champion, Excitebiker is someone I can see Sakurai being interested in trying again at some point. Excitebike is a pretty big NES title and its gotten several sequels, and a character on a bike would be different enough. The series even has some cameos such as the Mario Kart track. I don't think his time in Smash will be this game however, and it's possible Sakurai could still have problems with the idea. I really think Takamaru's next in line anyway, and Excitebiker still has some competition beyond him. I wouldn't count it out though, he could surprise me.

Want: 70%

I slightly prefer Mach Rider, but the idea of a guy just constantly riding a bike actually really interests me, and he's definitely a notable enough retro. To be completely honest, I'd be more interested in him than the likes of Takamaru.

Skyrim prediction: 14.32%
Music prediction: 30.30%


Nominations: Corrin x5
 
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VGamer01

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Pyra/Mythra solo:
Chance 0%
Want 0%
There is no way sakurai will ever let these two go to smash alone without rex. It dosent work in the game(unless your poppi) and it isnt how sakurai designs his characters from what ove seen in smash(imo).
Excitebike:
Chance 10%
While he is an interesting character other retro reps might be more interesting than him at this point in time.
Want 0%
No offense to the guy. He seems cool and could make a cool idea for a characfer but i dont really want him over other retro reps.

Prediction- abstain

Noms-
Tora and poppi x3
Sable prince x2
 
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A fair point, but a bit different from what I'm trying to communicate. Unlike Bowser Jr. And Wario, Excitebiker would have to be consistently using a high-speed motor vehicle (similar to the two's side specials.) Where does that leave him for grabs and jumping and recovery?

He's not impossible, certainly, but he's notably lacking in some pretty fundamental abilities.
I think Excitebiker's moveset issues are overstated. Gonna use bullet points for each potential problem you pointed out.
  • Grab
    • The standing grab is easy: he can just grab with one hand while staying in place, possibly planting a foot on the ground to balance himself. The dash grab would simply have him slow down/skid to a stop like other dash grabs while performing a similar one handed grab, albeit with more distance covered than most dash grabs.
  • Jump
    • First jump: A simple hop executed the same way you can get a little bit of lift on a bike irl, but with more height to it than real life. It can still be a shorter jump than the average Smash one though. Double jump: Double jumps are inherently unrealistic so he could just do the same thing again, but I personally like the idea of having him boost himself up with some small flame effects coming out of the exhaust.
  • Recovery
    • Obviously his up special would have him ride up a ramp. I don't see a problem with him magicking a smallish one out of thin air until he finishes traversing it; just have that be a part of the hitbox. On the ground the ramp could stick around for a while though.

Imo the biggest issue Excitebiker faces (aside from competing with a behemoth like Takamaru) is that the Excitebike Arena and ramps are more iconic than Excitebiker himself. It's very possible we get Takamaru and an Excitebike Arena stage instead of a playable Excitebiker. It's kind of like how in the general discussion thread people were talking about how they wouldn't like Steve but would be okay with a Minecraft stage: the world itself is more iconic than the character. Not a perfect comparison mind you because it seemed like a lot of them were hung up with his blocky appearance, but it gets the idea across.
 
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